Asia

Japan

  • China
    Friday Asia Update: Five Stories From the Week of June 17, 2016
    Lincoln Davidson, Bochen Han, Theresa Lou, Gabriella Meltzer, Ayumi Teraoka, and James West look at five stories from Asia this week. 1. Prominent Chinese lawyer facing possibility of lifetime imprisonment. The Chinese police have recommended prosecution on a charge of “subverting state power” for Zhou Shifeng, director of the Beijing Fengrui Law Firm whose arrest last summer invigorated a campaign to discredit and dismantle networks of rights-focused defense lawyers who have attempted to challenge the government. Zhou’s law firm took on many contentious cases about legal rights, representing the likes of dissident artist Ai Weiwei and Uighur academic Ilham Tohti. The charge of “subverting state power” can carry a sentence of up to life in prison. In comparison, Nobel laureate Liu Xiaobo was sentenced to 11 years for “inciting subversion of state power”, which is generally regarded as a lesser offense. Prosecutors now have up to a month and a half to decide whether or not take Zhou to court on the subversion charge. While it’s possible that the charge will be lightened, Zhou’s legal peers say that prosecutors are more inclined to stick with the more serious charge so as to set an example for other lawyers under investigation. China’s crackdown on lawyers is part of a comprehensive tightening of civil society under President Xi Jinping, in line with recent moves to restrict activity of foreign NGOs in China and reform the legal profession qualification system. 2. Obama meets the Dalai Lama. U.S. President Barack Obama met privately with the fourteenth Dalai Lama on Wednesday despite China’s firm opposition. The meeting—the fourth between the president and the spiritual leader—took place in the residence instead of in the Oval Office, which is traditionally reserved for heads of state. The White House reiterated that the personal meeting does not symbolize a shift in U.S. policy toward Tibet, which Washington considers part of China. However, President Obama encourages the Dalai Lama and his representatives to work directly with the Chinese government to resolve their differences. Beijing considers the Dalai Lama an anti-China separatist and has urged foreign governments not to host him. The Chinese Foreign Ministry emphasized that Tibet is part of China’s internal affairs, and that Washington risks jeopardizing relations with Beijing with the meeting. The meeting comes amidst increasing tensions between the two countries in the East and South China Seas. Just last week, the U.S. military accused a Chinese fighter jet for conducting an “unsafe” intercept of a U.S. reconnaissance plane that was operating in international airspace over the East China Sea. 3. Hyderabad on “high alert” for potential polio outbreak. Officials announced on Wednesday that a strain of active, vaccine-derived type 2 polio virus had been found in the water at a sewage treatment plant in Hyderabad, the capital of Telangana state in southern India that is home to over seven million people. Twenty-four sections of the city have been declared “most-sensitive areas” for a future outbreak. This discovery has prompted a precautionary vaccination drive that will begin Monday and reach 300,000 children, according to a statement from India’s Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. Thanks to collaboration between federal and state governments, the World Health Organization, UNICEF, and non-profit organizations, India detected its last case of polio in West Bengal in 2011 and was declared polio-free in 2012. Despite this success story, experts such as regional health officer Rajesh Singh have expressed mounting concern: “When the vaccine is given through the mouth, the liquid that gets dissolved and passed on in the form of stool accumulates in the sewage system. The virus in that vaccine becomes a stronger and more resistant strain.” 4. Tokyo governor finally resigns. Tokyo Metropolitan Governor Yoichi Masuzoe resigned on Wednesday after admitting to an inappropriate use of political funds to pay for personal travel and entertainment, including manga comic books and a Chinese-made silk calligrapher’s robe. The election for a new governor will occur on July 31, only three weeks after the House of Councillors election. Masuzoe had long refused to resign, even warning that he might dissolve the assembly if his non-confidence vote passed. He finally agreed to resign when the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Komeito, which backed him in the February 2014 election, started urging him to step down, cautioning against the damage he might cause to the upcoming Upper House election. Political parties are now quickly searching for candidates to back, and so far two women have been mentioned: Yuriko Koike, former defense minister for the LDP, and Renho, acting president of the main opposition Democratic Party. While Masuzoe set off the public’s furor over his expenses, the resulting Tokyo gubernatorial election is expected to cost about 5 billion yen ($50 million). It is critical that the Tokyo residents vote based on candidates’ ability to successfully run the metropolitan city without undermining public confidence. Only voting for famous names will only lead to another gubernatorial election. 5. Afghanistan and Pakistan exchange heavy fire along border. Last Sunday, Afghan and Pakistani forces exchanged heavy gunfire at the Torkham border crossing—the busiest official border crossing between the two countries—resulting in five dead and dozens injured. The fighting forced the closing of the border crossing for the second time in the past month, and tensions continued to escalate as a Pakistani Army officer was killed in the fighting on Tuesday. Each side has accused the other of unprovoked firing. In a dispute over the construction of a border gate by Pakistani forces, Pakistan claims the gate is on their side of the border and is designed to curtail the movement of militants, while Afghan officials say the construction violates an agreement on building new installations along the shared border that requires mutual discussion and agreement. Various ceasefires have been violated throughout the week with both sides reportedly deploying additional troops and weaponry to the border and summoning respective ambassadors to lodge formal complaints. As of Friday, construction had resumed on the Pakistani side despite a ceasefire requiring work to be halted, and the crossing remained closed, stranding thousands. The dispute comes after months of increasing tensions between the two countries over the ongoing war against that Afghan Taliban. Bonus: Jack Ma says fakes better than original products. Ma, the founder and chairman of Alibaba, the largest e-commerce company in the world, said this week that “fake products today, they make better quality, better prices than the real products, the real names,” adding fuel to perceptions that the company profits from counterfeiting. Fake products, often produced by the same factories that make brand-name items, have long been widespread on Alibaba’s platforms, and critics have accused the company of not doing enough to combat counterfeiting. Earlier this year an anti-counterfeiting industry group suspended Alibaba’s membership. Ma may be on to something: there will always be consumers who are unwilling or unable to pay the premium charged by brand name products. But growing Chinese demand for foreign-produced goods suggests that many consumers are hoping to avoid knock-offs.
  • China
    Friday Asia Update: Five Stories From the Week of June 10, 2016
    Rachel Brown, Lincoln Davidson, Theresa Lou, Gabriella Meltzer, and Gabriel Walker look at five stories from Asia this week. 1. Poisoned Vietnamese fish fuel popular discontent. A massive die-off of fish has occurred along 120 miles of coastline in Vietnam, where hundreds of residents in traditional fishing villages have fallen ill from eating the poisoned catch. This could have a devastating impact on the nation’s fishing industry that earned $6.6 billion from seafood exports last year alone. Most suspect the immediate cause of the die-off to be the release of toxic waste from a steel plant owned by Taiwan’s Formosa Plastics Group, which invested $10 billion in the enterprise. Despite Vietnamese officials’ statement that they failed to find evidence linking the fish kill to the factory’s activities, hundreds across the country have demonstrated against the communist government’s prioritization of foreign direct investment and industrialization over the protection of population public health. The Vietnamese prime minister has promised to investigate any agency, organization, or individual in violation of environmental regulations. 2. Japan aims to counter aging population with foreign workers. The Japanese government announced last week that it will seek to reduce barriers to permanent residency for skilled foreigners who wish to work in Japan. It also hopes to increase the proportion of foreign students who remain in Japan following their graduation from Japanese universities. Aging and shrinking populations are leading contributors to slow economic growth throughout East Asia’s developed economies. Japan’s predicament is particularly severe: its population has declined by more than one million since 2008 and a third of the population is above the age of sixty. Analysts are skeptical of the new immigration proposals’ ability to counter these trends, however. To maintain its current population level, Japan would need nearly 400,000 immigrants annually for the next thirty-five years; it has received only 300,000, on average, over the last several years. To get to that number, and truly jump-start the economy, some argue that the country needs to allow in not just skilled foreigners, but also blue collar workers. 3. Corruption tarnishes the Afghan gem trade. While Afghanistan’s mineral wealth, estimated to be worth up to $1 trillion in 2010, could be a major source of government revenue, instead it appears to be helping fund militias and the Taliban. A Global Witness report released this week focused on corruption surrounding the lapis lazuli trade in Badakhshan, a province in northeastern Afghanistan. In 2013, the Lajwardeen Mining Company secured the rights to a major lapis mine, but less than a month later, a local militia took it over. Rather than opposing this usurpation of mining rights, the Afghan National Security Council actually ordered the contract’s termination. Corruption also runs rampant in the marble trade in the southern Afghan province of Helmand, much of which remains under Taliban rule. According to the United Nations, the Taliban earned approximately $10 million from the marble trade, including taxes paid by private firms selling marble to the government. Other estimates place the amount as high as $18 million per year. Overall, minerals are believed to be the Taliban’s second largest source of income. 4. United States accuses Chinese fighter jet of “unsafe” interception. The U.S. military accused a Chinese fighter jet for conducting an “unsafe” intercept of a U.S. reconnaissance plane that was operating in international airspace over the East China Sea. The U.S. Pacific Command stated that the Chinese jet was flying too fast and too close to the U.S. aircraft, calling it a case of “improper airmanship.” Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hong Lei emphasized that Chinese pilots act in accordance with laws and regulations, and that crux of the problem is continuous U.S. reconnaissance activities in China’s coastal areas. The interception occurred as U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry was in Beijing for the eighth session of the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue. In May, two Chinese fighter jets flew within fifty feet of a U.S. aircraft over the South China Sea, an act that the U.S. Department of Defense deemed to have violated a previous agreement between the two governments. Both incidents are considered the latest signs of increasing tension in the East and South China Seas between China and the United States and its allies. 5. Seoul plans $9.5 billion infusion for beleaguered shipping sector. In recent years, weak global trade has hit South Korea’s shipping industry hard. The country’s three largest shipbuilders, for example, which once controlled almost 70 percent of the global market, lost a combined $4.9 billion during last year alone. Hyundai Merchant, one of South Korea’s main container operators, recently managed to renegotiate debts in order to avoid bankruptcy. The heavy losses pose a risk not only to the 200,000 people employed by the shipping industry, but also to banks, which hold over $40 billion in loans to top shipping firms. To help stave off financial ruin, the South Korean government and the Bank of Korea will establish a nearly $9.5 billion fund to buy bonds issued by two policy lenders that have helped shippers stay afloat. In another glimmer of hope for the flagging industry, Iranian companies have recently reached deals with South Korean shipyards, valued at around $2.4 billion, to facilitate trade between the two countries. Bonus: Creation story, not creationism, sparks outrage in China. In America, debates over teaching the book of Genesis creation story in schools usually revolve around the science classroom. In China, at least in recent weeks, the same story has sparked a very different kind of controversy: not over the validity of Darwinism, but over why the story was included in a middle-school literature textbook. Netizens and officials alike criticized the book for including the story, representative of Western values and religion, in place of a more traditional Chinese passage. Last year, China’s education minister called to “never let textbooks promoting western values enter into our classes,” or at least those ideas that “defame the leadership of the party or smear socialism.” But one Global Times op-ed contrarily called for more restraint in hasty public criticism, and argued that including such passages would expand students’ perspectives. “Is it a myth or is it religion?,” one article asked. “The key is perspective.”
  • Budget, Debt, and Deficits
    Japan’s First Consumption Tax Hike Was a Demand Disaster
    Abe’s rhetoric has not been German. Especially not recently. But his policies over the last two years have been. At least until recently. The International Monetary Fund’s fiscal department estimates that Japan did a consolidation of over 2 percentage points in 2014 and another half point or so of fiscal consolidation in 2015, net of any gains from lower interest payments.* Japan has a history of passing lots of highly hyped stimulus packages. But in many cases those stimulus packages just offset the roll-off of past stimulus packages, without generating much net fiscal impulse to the economy. Postponing the consumption tax hike consequently makes a great deal of sense. Japan’s economy—the domestic side at least—never recovered from the last hike. Private consumption demand fell around 1.5 percentage points of GDP immediately after the consumption tax hike, and hasn’t recovered. Annualizing quarter-over-quarter changes in the level of consumption produces noisy headlines every quarter—but the basic trend is clear by now. Even in Japan with its demographics there should be an upward slope to consumption over time in a normally performing economy. Japan’s 2014 consumption tax hike consequently should rank a bit higher in the various cases used to examine the impact of fiscal austerity. There was a clear swing toward austerity, and thus a clear contrast. Fiscal policy was modestly expansionary by any measure in 2013. The tax hike came at the zero bound, so there was limited capacity to offset using conventional monetary policy tools. That is precisely the circumstance when macroeconomic theory would suggest that a broad based tax hike would harm growth. But the large drag was not necessarily what many forecast at the time. Japan’s cabinet office forecast growth of 1.4 percent in fiscal 2014 (2nd quarter of 2014 through the first quarter of 2015), with a percentage point contribution from private demand. Private consumption was expected to contribute about 40 basis points to growth. The cabinet office was not alone. The IMF’s 2014 Article IV report forecast growth of about 1.5 percent in calendar 2014, almost all from domestic demand. At the time, the IMF was more concerned that Japan wasn’t doing enough medium-term consolidation than that Japan was underestimating the near-term fiscal drag. The actual outcome in fiscal 2014? Output fell 0.9 percent. Best I can tell, private domestic demand subtracted around 1.4 percentage points from growth, with the fall in consumption subtracting 1.7 percentage points from growth. That is a rather large forecast error.** The rise in the consumption tax is correlated with a broader loss of momentum in Japan’s effort to end deflation as well. This is precisely what would be expected if the capacity of monetary policy to offset the drag on domestic demand from fiscal consolidation is limited when rate are already close to zero across the curve. And perhaps all the more to be expected in an economy where excess savings are almost all on the corporate side, not the household side, and where real wage growth and thus private demand growth has been weak for a long time. * Using changes in the cyclically adjusted primary balance in the IMF’s Fiscal Monitor. The structural primary deficit fell by 2.3 percentage points of GDP in 2014 and another 0.6 percentage points in 2015. The changes in the structural fiscal balance, which includes interest payments, in the IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) are similar. ** Fiscal year 2014 versus fiscal year 2013 magnifies the fall in output, as the highly telegraphed consumption hike tax pulled consumption forward. But overall path of consumption subsequent to the hike clearly has been at odds with forecasts at the time, and with the multipliers implied in papers arguing for consumption tax based consolidation.
  • Japan
    A Personal Reflection on Today in Hiroshima
    I woke up early this morning, before 4 a.m. in fact, to head to NPR to be live when President Barack Obama spoke in Hiroshima. As I drove across a dark and quiet Washington, DC, the president was already beginning what has to be his most moving speech to date. As my city was waking up, the entire Japanese nation was listening to our president, the first sitting U.S. president to visit the site of the atomic bombings. If you have not heard it, you should take a moment to read it here. President Obama began by taking us back to that precise moment that changed human history, “a bright cloudless morning” when “death fell from the sky.” He reminded us why we must continue to visit Hiroshima, to remember “the terrible force” that took the lives of over 100,000 men, women, and children, among them not only Japanese but Koreans and even Americans held as prisoners of war. "Their souls," he continued, "ask us to look inward, to take stock of who we are, and what we might become.” War fought throughout human history, by powerful and wealthy nations, he argued, affected most those who are “the innocents.” And he reminded us that our future is a choice. In echoes of his first speech on the need to find our way forward to a world without nuclear weapons, President Obama suggested that August 6, 1945 should be seen not as the “dawn of atomic warfare,” but as the “start of our moral awakening.” Throughout his speech, President Obama sought to put faces and feelings on the lives of those who were alive then, and on the human costs of war. He focused on our children. Early on he depicted the confusion of those children who were there in Hiroshima on the day of the atomic bombing, some of whom in fact were in the audience as survivors, or hibakusha. He spoke of the children of Hiroshima today who go through their days in peace –a precious thing, he noted, that must be “protected and extended to every child.” And, he spoke to the stories that we must choose to tell our children, the narratives that we provide that can lead us to reconciliation instead of war –a story of  “a common humanity... [where] cruelty is less easily accepted.” Moreover, President Obama highlighted the choices that will determine our future, which lie in the hands of the world’s leaders. Leaders must understand what he said “ordinary people” already know—those who died in Hiroshima and Nagasaki seventy-one years ago were “like us,” with lives and families like ours. He noted that the nations that fought World War II were the wealthiest and most powerful, with magnificent civilizations, art, and culture. Yet he laid blame on “the base instinct for domination,” an instinct today that is “amplified by new capabilities” for destruction. He called on leaders to “reimagine our connection to the human race…to one another,” and reminded them to “learn” from Hiroshima and to “choose” to avoid and prevent the catastrophe of war. This plea to avoid the call of nationalism and competition, instead seeking the path of diplomacy and compromise, could not come at a better time for Asia. With North Korea in pursuit of a nuclear arsenal and China rising as a more assertive regional power, many across the region worry about a new inevitable competition across Asia. With even more destructive power, and with some –even in the United States –suggesting that nuclear weapons are inevitable for those like Japan that remain steadfastly opposed, President Obama’s reminder of the human cost of war is prescient. He also put World War II into a global context, reminding us that the scale of deliberate civilian killings in that conflict far outstripped any previous war. He spoke of the sixty million who died in that war—men, women, and children killed and “shot, beaten, marched, bombed, jailed, starved, and gassed” in the horrible “depravity” of that war. He noted too the many sites elsewhere around the world depicting the suffering of so many, reminding us that Hiroshima was not the only site of human suffering. But he did emphasize how the shock of the “mushroom cloud” brought into stark relief how far that global contest had taken us, how close we were to using our technology to “eliminate” human life. Carried in his pocket were four origami cranes, a symbol of hope and rebirth in Japan that has particular salience in Hiroshima. At the Hiroshima Peace Memorial Park, a special memorial statue was built to honor the story of Sadako Sasaki, a young girl who was four at the time of the atomic bombing and later died of leukemia at the age of twelve. During her illness, Sadako folded more than a thousand cranes, a practice thought to help realize wishes in Japan. Her brother, Masahiro Sasaki, took it upon himself to continue to share those cranes with those who sought peace, even taking one to the 9/11 Memorial Museum as well as to the Pearl Harbor Museum. Her story has been written about in many languages, and read by many children across the globe. One child who read the book was the son of Clifton Truman Daniels, the oldest grandson of President Harry Truman. In 2012, Clifton and Masahiro together toured the museum that President Obama visited today, finding a path to friendship in their common pursuit of peace. Seventy-one years later, the voices of the wartime generation are growing faint. Veterans who fought the war, and those that suffered its worst brutality are now in their final years of life.  That generation has been at the forefront of reconciliation dialogue and outreach between Japan and the United States, reaching out to those they fought against or those who families like theirs were decimated in war. Not all forgive, however, and sensitivities in both countries remain over those who suffered. My inbox today is already full of emails from all generations of Japanese and Americans deeply moved by the president’s visit and by his profound reminder of our shared responsibility in building peace. In Japan, there is widespread gratitude for the president’s visit; in the United States, our election may provide the opportunity for a more partisan reading. I was too deeply moved, and as an American, sincerely proud to watch our president finally demonstrate just how far our two nations have come. I hope leaders across Asia, indeed across the world, take heed of President Obama’s appeal to this generation to reach across national borders and to find courage in our shared humanity.
  • Cybersecurity
    Risk-based Approach Essential to Taming Wave of Cybersecurity Regulation
    Pamela S. Passman is the president and CEO of the Center for Responsible Enterprise and Trade (CREATe), which recently published Cyber Risk: Navigating the Rising Tide of Cybersecurity Regulation. The increase in volume and intensity of cyberattacks, including recent ransomware attacks against healthcare organizations, catapulted government officials and business leaders into action. Governments worldwide are rushing to put policies and regulation in place to address the evolving threat landscape for public and private institutions. The result is a growing patchwork of disparate policies and regulations that results in an increased regulatory burden for any company or agency trying to comply with the scores of proposals guidance and regulations under consideration. . However, guidance from the U.S. Department of Commerce’s National Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST)—the Cybersecurity Framework—provides the opportunity to bring some cohesion for organizations operating domestically and globally. Flurry of Proposals In just the past three years, more than 240 bills, amendments and other legislative proposals have been introduced in the U.S. Congress as a way to regulate cybersecurity in some form or another. Even if a fraction of those regulations make it into law, the increased regulation could spell chaos for many companies and agencies with already constrained IT and security budgets. In the European Union, companies and organizations face similar challenges. They are reckoning how to comply with the new EU Network and Information Security (NIS) Directive, which went into effect in April 2016. Under this directive, each national government must adopt a national network and information security strategy, appoint responsible agencies, develop a plan to identify possible risks, and identify measures for preparedness, response and recovery, including cooperation between the public and private sectors. In Germany and Japan, firms and agencies are assessing the requirements of Germany’s IT Security Act of July 2015, and the Japanese government’s Cybersecurity Strategy adopted in September 2015. Other countries, including China, are evaluating their current cybersecurity laws in light of the increased threats. Laws requiring government departments to improve management of their own cybersecurity are also appearing around the world, with obvious implications for government contractors. In the United States, every government agency is required to implement information security protections based on their risks under the Federal Information Security Management Act (FISMA) originally released in 2002 and updated in 2014. The EU’s NIS Directive also places new obligations on European governments to put their houses in order. In Australia, where cybersecurity is still largely governed by recommended guidelines and industry frameworks, federal government agencies are required to comply with two security frameworks for protecting information and other assets. These are just a few of the many other national and state governments tightening up cybersecurity programs. Companies are also facing new mandates on other fronts. Trade secret protection is one such area, as indicated by the recently passed Trade Secret Directive in the European Union; and the Defend Trade Secrets Act in the United States. The implementation of both legal schemes will no doubt look to cybersecurity requirements as part of the steps companies must take to demonstrate that it has protected its trade secrets. Also on the rise are securities laws and tightened government contracting requirements. The Cost of Compliance The motivations behind many of the policies and regulations are different: some are to protect individuals’ sensitive personal, health and financial information; while others are to focus on safeguarding companies’ proprietary data and competitiveness; and still others seek to defend critical infrastructure and national security. When organizations have multiple priorities, the ensuing policies fuel rather than stem the confusion. In many companies, security is dictated by responding to regulatory requirements rather than implementing an enterprise-wide, risk-based approach encompassing security strategy. In many U.S. healthcare IT departments, for example, significant resources are focused on HIPPA compliance at the expense of other important security gaps that need to be addressed. The price for noncompliance is great. Companies are being fined for noncompliance to regulations by government agencies and sued by shareholders in an environment where the standards are evolving. For example, after hackers stole personal and credit card information of approximately 56 million Home Depot customers, a shareholder derivative suit in September 2015 followed more than forty four other civil suits by consumers and financial institutions. The suits allege the company breached its fiduciary duties of loyalty, good faith, and due care by failing to take reasonable measures to protect customer information. A better approach Governments and the private sector are working together to develop security frameworks and guidance to help organizations protect confidential information more effectively. The most thorough and broad-based cybersecurity approach is the U.S. National Institute for Standards and Technology’s Cybersecurity Framework. It breaks down security concerns into functions, categories, and subcategories, and provides a way for organizations to identify and meet security outcomes. Crucially, it doesn’t mandate a specific risk management process or specify any priority of action, instead leaving it up to organizations based upon individual risk profiles. With the rising tide of cyber regulation, there is an opportunity to cooperate and consolidate efforts across countries to help companies and government agencies proactively prepare. The emergence of voluntary guidance, such as the Cybersecurity Framework, offers an approach that helps companies and governments integrate cybersecurity into an organization’s overall risk management and compliance program, and as a result, ensure that people, process and technology issues are assessed and managed effectively.
  • China
    Friday Asia Update: Five Stories From the Week of May 20, 2016
    Rachel Brown, Lincoln Davidson, Theresa Lou, Gabriella Meltzer, Ayumi Teraoka, and Gabriel Walker look at five stories from Asia this week. 1. Sri Lanka reeling from massive flooding and mudslides. Sri Lanka is currently experiencing its heaviest rains in twenty-five years, leading to flooding and landslides that have devastated twenty-one out of the country’s twenty-five districts. The death toll as of today has reached nearly seventy people, over 300,000 have been displaced from their homes, and 220 families are still reported missing beneath the mud, which in some places reaches up to thirty feet. The Sri Lankan army is working tirelessly to relocate communities to roughly 600 temporary shelters across the country housed in schools and temples, as well as to provide food and clean water. More rains are expected to come with the approach of the cyclical monsoon season from May through September in the south, followed by one in the north from December through February. On Thursday, Foreign Minister Mangala Samaraweera commented that there will be an urgent, long-term need for water purification tablets, water pumps, and drinking water following the disaster. 2. Tsai Ing-wen assumes presidency of the Republic of China. On Friday, Tsai, a former law professor who is the leader of Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), was inaugurated as the first woman and second DPP member to serve as president of the island. In her inauguration address (transcript, recording), Tsai made it clear that addressing economic challenges—like youth unemployment and a risk of falling behind in regional integration—would be the first task of her presidency. She also advocated recalibrating cross-Strait relations with a recognition that both Taiwan and mainland China are in very different positions than they were twenty-five years ago. It takes two to tango, though, and it’s not clear Beijing is on board. Tsai and the DPP-controlled legislature have a difficult task ahead, and failure to deliver on campaign promises may lead to disillusionment, particularly among youth. Despite this, Tsai’s election—concurrent with the first non-Kuomintang (Taiwan’s other major party) majority in the legislature—is a reminder that Taiwanese democracy has matured and consolidated since the transition from Kuomintang dictatorship in the late 1980s. 3. Trafficking of Vietnamese women expands across Asia. The patterns of movement for women and girls trafficked from Vietnam to other parts of Asia are shifting. According to the Pacific Links Foundation, which works on counter-trafficking in the Asia-Pacific region, the majority of victims end up in China as brides, factory laborers, or prostitutes. Other destinations, including Cambodia and Malaysia, have also become increasingly common. Chinese demand for Vietnamese brides is largely attributed to skewed gender ratios that persist as a result of the one-child policy and historical preferences for sons. New concerns have also emerged that greater economic integration between ASEAN nations will lead not only to money and goods circulating more freely, but also to traffickers operating more easily. Trafficking patterns within Vietnam itself are also changing; historically many women and girls were taken from northern provinces near the Chinese border, but now trafficking appears to be originating in sites across the country. The use of violence and drugging by abduction networks has also increased. 4. Public distrust mounts as Tokyo governor’s scandals grow. Controversies continued this week surrounding the Tokyo Metropolitan Governor Yoichi Masuzoe’s alleged use of public funds for personal items—ranging from using an official vehicle almost every weekend for family trips to purchasing oil paintings online. The manner in which Masuzoe dealt with these allegations only exacerbated the situation: he first admitted the use of 450,000 yen ($4,000) for hotel stays and use of high-end restaurants last week, and then further admitted to using political funds for paintings and other “research materials” to the tune of more than 9 million yen ($82,000) this week. Masuzoe has also spent 213 million yen ($1.9 million) on overseas trips in his two years in office, more than double that spent by one of his predecessors, Shintaro Ishihara. Senior officials from the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, which backed Masuzoe in the 2014 gubernatorial election, expressed criticism as they prepare for the upcoming national election this summer. Despite a total of 4,600 angry telephone calls and emails, including some demanding his resignation, Masuzoe insists on staying in office and regaining “trust through my work.” Masuzoe announced today that his expense reports will henceforth be scrutinized by third-party lawyers. Yet given the fact that Masuzoe’s predecessor, Naoki Inose, quickly resigned over allegations of election fundraising irregularities, it will likely take more than third-party involvement to regain public trust if Masuzoe wishes to stay in office. 5. North Korea losing faith in its sole ally. Recent interviews of North Koreans hint that the Hermit Kingdom may be increasingly paranoid about China, the North’s most important patron. Forged on the fronts of the Korean War, the relationship between North Korea and China has traditionally been referred to as close as “lips and teeth.” But relations have deteriorated. Pyongyang’s brazen behavior—such as the nuclear test in January and repeated missile launches—have reduced Beijing’s tolerance, evidenced by China’s support for the adoption of the strongest-ever sanctions against North Korea in UN Security Council Resolution 2270. President Xi Jinping’s unprecedented decision to visit South Korea twice before having first visited North Korea exemplifies Xi’s displeasure toward Kim Jong-un. And the feeling seems mutual. Kim is reportedly wary that China will “trade away [North Korea’s] interests” for other strategic benefits. Though strained ties between the two countries is almost certainly bad news for North Korea, which depends heavily on China for food and fuel, it offers a unique window of opportunity for further U.S.-China cooperation on addressing the North Korean issue. Bonus: Red is the color of love. Some traditional Chinese marriage practices date back thousands of years—and others are just being invented. This week, groom Li Yunpeng and bride Chen Xuanchi commemorated their wedding night by hand-copying the Communist Party of China’s (CPC) constitution. Their hard work was about more than romance, however: it was a studious effort to follow the nationwide “Copy the CPC Constitution for 100 days” campaign that is encouraging party members to transcribe the more than 15,000-character document and post pictures of their results online. A broad national education campaign focusing on the study of the CPC constitution launched in February targets party members with “wavering confidence in communism and socialism with Chinese characteristics” and “those who advocate Western values, violate Party rules, work inefficiently or behave unethically.” Though it is unclear whether Li and Chen actually finished copying the document, it is unlikely anyone will doubt the couple’s revolutionary fervor and work ethic after seeing their wedding photos. And luckily they should still have the first ninety-nine days of their married life to finish the grueling task.
  • G7 (Group of Seven)
    For Japan, a G7 to Remember
    Japan hosts the G7 summit at a time of rising strategic tensions in Asia and worrisome global economic trends, but for many the gathering will be sidelined by a U.S. presidential visit to Hiroshima, writes CFR’s Sheila Smith.
  • China
    Friday Asia Update: Five Stories From the Week of May 13, 2016
    Ashlyn Anderson, Rachel Brown, Theresa Lou, Gabriella Meltzer, and Gabriel Walker look at five stories from Asia this week. 1. Philippine congress gains its first transgender member. Despite the country’s discriminatory laws against gay and transgender people, Liberal Party candidate Geraldine Roman received more than 60 percent of the vote in her home province of Bataan in northern Philippines. Roman comes from a long line of politicians, and will take the congressional seat occupied by her mother during the previous three terms. Campaigning on promises to improve public hospitals and roads and fight for equal opportunity for all, Roman insists that she is not a “novelty candidate” and seeks to continue her family’s legacy of public service. Roman will also push for an anti-discrimination bill and an end to the law that prevents transgender Filipinos from changing their names and genders. Overcoming “bigotry, hatred, and discrimination,” she also hopes that her election will inspire other LGBT Filipinos to consider government service. 2. Economists offer “Twilight Zone” monetary policies to salvage Japanese economy. Despite years of economic stimulus under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Japan is still fighting on all fronts against low GDP growth, stagnant prices, weak consumer spending, and other economic woes. Recently, Japanese and foreign economists have put forth some far-fetched prescriptions heretofore relegated to textbooks and academic journals. These ideas include “helicopter money,” which would require the Bank of Japan to essentially print free money for the government to spend on infrastructure projects and stimulus measures, and various methods of incentivizing corporate and consumer spending like taxing low-risk assets and setting negative interest rates on deposits. But each of these approaches bears inherent risks, and none is a surefire way of boosting growth. For example, recent negative interest rates on some deposits have done nothing to depreciate the Yen (which would boost Japanese exports), and the currency in fact has surged in the past two months, contrary to expectations. A number of prominent economists have suggested giving “helicopter money” a try, potentially as a last resort, but the approach has no precedent and could possibly be illegal by trespassing upon the division of fiscal and monetary responsibilities within the government. Whatever the Abe administration’s next step may be, it seems there is no simple solution—desperate times call for desperate measures. 3. Kim Jong-un promises “a responsible nuclear state.” The seventh congress of the North Korean Workers’ party (WPK)—the first of such meeting in thirty-six years—ended without much fanfare. As was expected, Kim Jong-un officially assumed the title of chairman of the WPK and consolidated his control over the Hermit Kingdom. After celebrating his country’s nuclear accomplishments, Kim claimed that North Korea is a responsible nuclear state and “will not use nuclear weapons first unless aggressive hostile forces use nuclear weapons to invade on our sovereignty.” Given Pyongyang’s history of issuing nuclear threats—including a recent propaganda video depicting a nuclear strike on Washington—and brazen weapon tests, regional actors are wary of taking Kim’s statement at face value. The young leader also announced a vague five-year plan to develop his country’s moribund economy in hopes that “his people will never have to tighten their belt again.” Pyongyang’s insistence on building up its nuclear arsenal, however, is part of downward spiral toward isolation. The regime’s efforts to establish legitimacy through its nuclear weapons program has brought forth rounds of economic sanctions and further estranged North Korea from the global economy. 4. Bangladesh opposition leader executed. Motiur Rahman Nizami, leader of the biggest Islamic party in Bangladesh, Jamaat-e-Islami, was executed on Wednesday. Jamaat-e-Islami opposed Bangladesh’s separation from Pakistan, and was for a time banned from Bangladeshi politics. He was convicted of carrying out acts of genocide, including murder and rape, during Bangladesh’s war for independence in 1971, and for establishing a militia that engaged in torture and assisted Pakistani forces in killing independence supporters. Extra police were deployed in Dhaka after the hanging to handle potential riots. Nizami is the fifth opposition leader executed based on verdicts of Bangladesh’s controversial war crimes tribunal. Many international bodies have critiqued the trials as unfair and not presenting the accused with sufficient opportunities for defense. The most recent execution has strained some of Bangladesh’s diplomatic ties. Turkey called its ambassador home for consultations and Pakistan described the hanging as “unfortunate” and summoned the Bangladeshi ambassador. The legacies of the bloody civil war are still far from resolved, and the execution may also revive internal debates in Bangladesh. 5. Climate change swallows five Pacific islands. A study released this week in Environmental Research Letters has demonstrated the devastating impact that climate change will have on low-lying islands across the Pacific region in the coming years. Using time series aerial and satellite imaging from 1947 through 2014 over thirty-three vegetated reef Solomon Islands, Australian researchers made the unfortunate discovery that five islands were completely submerged by rising sea levels driven by anthropogenic climate change. An additional six islands have lost over 20 percent of their inhabitable surface area, forcing families to abandon their communities, relocate to higher ground, and potentially stir conflict over traditional property rights. The greatest concern surrounds Taro Island, which “may become the first provincial capital on the planet that people desert due to climate change,” and will force the relocation and reconfiguration of entire health, security, infrastructure, and education systems. Bonus: Queen calls Chinese officials “very rude.” The “golden era” in UK-China relations lost some glimmer this week after a conversation was caught on video between Queen Elizabeth and Lucy D’Orsi, who directed security during Xi Jinping’s state visit to the United Kingdom last fall. The Queen remarked that the Chinese were “very rude to the ambassador” when they walked out of a meeting, and noted what “bad luck” it was to be in charge of the visit’s security. This isn’t the first royal China gaffe: in a leaked diary describing the Hong Kong handover ceremony in 1997, Prince Charles described Chinese leaders as a “group of appalling old wax works.”  Most news of the Queen’s remarks was censored in China, but the Global Times later ran an editorial calling the Western media “full of reckless ‘gossip fiends’ who bare their fangs and brandish their claws and are very narcissistic, retaining the bad manners of ‘barbarians.’”  It seems that all sides could stand to brush up on their manners.
  • Japan
    Anti-Nuclear Sentiment and Japan’s Energy Choices
    Daniel P. Aldrich is professor of political science and public policy and co-director of Northeastern University’s Security and Resilience Studies Program. After the Fukushima nuclear disaster on March 11, 2011, many believed that Japan would use the incident to rethink its energy plans, particularly nuclear energy policies. For more than four decades Japan has sought to create one of the world’s most advanced commercial nuclear industries, complete with fuel recycling and mixed oxide fuel use. Yet, since retaking power in 2012, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) remains strongly committed to nuclear power after the nuclear meltdowns. Why has Japan stayed the course while other nations have abandoned nuclear power? The LDP’s energy policy released in June last year called for nuclear power to supply about 20 percent of Japan’s electricity by 2030, and Minister of Economy, Trade, and Industry Motoo Hayashi confirmed that Japan will continue with its closed fuel cycle policy based on reprocessing. Prior to Fukushima, about 30 percent of Japan’s electricity was generated by nuclear power, and Japan’s 2010 Basic Energy Plan called for nuclear power’s share to increase to 50 percent by 2030. To accomplish this modernization, Japan pursued a closed nuclear fuel cycle, including fast breeder reactors (FBRs), mixed oxide fuel (MOX), and spent fuel reprocessing. It also created large subsidies for rural communities willing to host the plants. Today, except for the downsizing of the relative share of nuclear in Japan’s overall energy mix, little has changed in government thinking about Japan’s nuclear program since the 3/11 disaster. Japan’s policy continuity in the field of nuclear energy stands in contrast to other countries. For example, Germany and Switzerland both decided to phase out nuclear power after Fukushima, despite having relatively high dependence on nuclear energy. Well before Fukushima, France dropped its Superphenix FBR program, and the United States stopped fast reactor and fuel reprocessing development efforts due to technical challenges, high costs, and concerns about safety. Despite suffering the second worst commercial nuclear accident in history, only behind Chernobyl, Tokyo policymakers are working hard to keep Japan’s nuclear sector on track. Three factors keep the Japanese administration intent on restarting nuclear power: a media which fails to function as a watchdog, strong pressure from the nuclear industry and the business community, and a lack of sustained opposition from civil society and elected officials. Where media organizations in Europe covered nuclear accidents like Chernobyl and Fukushima and pushed their decision makers to think through potential accidents at home, Japanese news agencies rarely questioned their country’s ability to prevent accidents. Instead, leading newspapers beginning in the 1950s advocated for nuclear power and ran op-eds written by pro-nuclear officials as news stories. Post-Fukushima, only anti-nuclear groups such as the Citizens’ Nuclear Information Center (CNIC) and occasional op-eds in the Asahi and Yomiuri Shimbun pushed Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) and the Japanese government to explain Fukushima’s failure. Furthermore, the media did not question the government on the slow release of critical information about radioactive contamination in the days and weeks after 3/11. For example, only after foreign media called the Fukushima disaster a fuel meltdown did Japanese newspapers acknowledge a fuel meltdown at Fukushima. Few in Japan’s media saw their role as countering the state’s longstanding position on nuclear safety. Next, Japan’s businesses see the restart of nuclear power plants as critical to their competitiveness and to Japan’s economic success. The Nihon Keizai Shimbun regularly published polls where companies threatened to relocate overseas if cheap and uninterrupted power was not guaranteed. Keidanren, the Japan Business Federation, has openly argued that “...the process for restarting nuclear power plants must thus be accelerated to the maximum extent possible…” and that the “...establishment of a [closed] nuclear fuel cycle is essential.” Abe’s cabinet has similarly supported nuclear power because of claims that it is stable and cost effective. In contrast, German businesses did little to push back against the government’s Energiewende (energy transition) away from nuclear power, and U.S. businesses have kept a low profile on the issue of energy. Finally, the public has yet again voted the LDP into office despite public opinion polls consistently showing that the Japanese public opposes continued use of nuclear power. The LDP handily won in national elections to gain control of both Houses of the Japanese Diet. Shinzo Abe’s party remains a staunch advocate of civilian nuclear power, pushing for reactor restarts and closed fuel cycle development. His government’s coalition partner, Komeito, contrary to campaign pledges to seek “zero nuclear power,” dampened its rhetoric once back in office, and in subsequent elections, voters have not punished the LDP or the Komeito for their energy policy stance. The most visible critics of the government’s nuclear power policies came from outside established political parties.  Retired former prime ministers such as Junichiro Koizumi and Morihiro Hosokawa have tried to rally anti-nuclear sentiment, but have not been able to move the debate on energy.  Moreover, opposition parties have failed to weaken the LDP’s grip on power regardless of their stance on nuclear power. The only political party that has regularly and openly criticized Japan’s nuclear power program – the Japanese Communist Party –has little chance of winning general elections. Residents of municipalities close to nuclear power plants have filed class action lawsuits to move the needle on the nuclear issue, but the response of Japan’s courts has been mixed. The Otsu District Court, for example, shut down Takahama reactors 3 and 4 in early March 2016 citing insufficient information on the government’s safety precautions in the wake of the Fukushima meltdowns. This follows the earlier Fukui Court injunction in April 2015 that briefly prevented Kansai Electric Power Company from restarting the units, arguing that the new safety regulations were inadequate. Not all courts have been sympathetic to antinuclear activists, however.  In early April 2016, the Fukuoka High Court rejected a lawsuit that would have suspended operation of the Sendai plants, and the Fukui court later lifted its own injunction. These mixed rulings from the regional courts reveal how divided Japan remains on the nuclear issue. Strong and rising support for Prime Minister Abe suggests little incentive for the current government to revisit Japan’s energy choices. This summer’s elections may yet again prove that voters continue to prioritize other issues, especially the economy, over nuclear energy at the ballot box. The government may have cooled some opposition by creating a new nuclear regulator, the Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA), which has carried out thorough restart inspections and has exercised discretion over the licensing of reactors. Meanwhile, cleanup and decontamination of Fukushima continues. Restoring Japan’s nuclear power capacity will take several years, perhaps even decades, giving the government and civil society time to debate and explore other energy policy options. Regular polls since the disaster show that the majority of Japanese oppose nuclear restarts and sympathetic court rulings indicate that some judges are siding with the populace. The Japanese government and media should explore the public’s anti-nuclear sentiment more fully as it considers its nuclear future. The environmental and social costs of the Fukushima meltdowns, an event which displaced tens of thousands from towns like Futaba and Tomioka and affected the livelihoods and mental health of many more, suggest the need for altering Japan’s basic energy approach. Looking solely at the management of Japan’s nuclear reactors, continued attention to public concerns is needed. In towns and villages that host nuclear reactors, residents’ opposition might decrease if they were given an actual voice during the restart processes, rather than merely a pro forma chance to write down their concerns. Additionally, the government must consider a more practical fuel cycle policy if it is to ease concerns within Japan as well as abroad. This would involve pausing attempts at reprocessing and speeding up the deployment of dry cask storage for spent nuclear fuel, either at reactor sites or in consolidated facilities, to reduce proliferation and terrorism risks. Traumatic events like Fukushima provide policy makers with the chance to reexamine fundamentally choices made far in the past, and we can only hope that Japan’s policymakers will take full advantage of this moment.
  • China
    Friday Asia Update: Five Stories From the Week of April 8, 2016
    Rachel Brown, Lincoln Davidson, Gabriella Meltzer, Gabriel Walker, and Pei-Yu Wei look at five stories from Asia this week. 1. Corruption and combat thwart counternarcotics efforts in Afghanistan. The first poppy harvest of the year is just beginning in Helmand, Afghanistan—by far the largest source of opium and heroin in the world—and very little can be done about it. Since 2002 the United States has spent over $8 billion on counternarcotics efforts in Afghanistan, including eradicating over six thousand acres of poppy fields in Helmand alone over the past two years, but this year there will be no effort to do so. According to Maj. Rahmatullah Alokozai, the security chief of Afghanistan’s Ministry of Counternarcotics, now that the Taliban completely controls more than half of Helmand it is too dangerous to attempt eradication efforts. Some believe that Maj. Alokozai’s unwillingness to try is a sign that he stands to profit from poppy revenues, as many other Afghan government officials have in some way in the past, by canceling this year’s eradication. Maj. Gen. Abdul Jabar Qahraman, Afghani President Ashraf Ghani’s envoy for Helmand, stated that the situation there is so difficult because all the combatants have a vested interest in the success of the drug trade: “The war and the fighting in Helmand is a tool for everybody—they’re making millions off it.” 2. Bangladesh experiences “largest mass poisoning of a population in history”: A new report released by Human Rights Watch on Wednesday reveals that 20 million Bangladeshis have been poisoned by arsenic in their drinking water. According to the organization’s findings, 43,000 people die annually from arsenic-related illnesses, including liver, kidney, bladder, and skin cancer, as well as heart disease, developmental defects, and diabetes. In fact, “between 1 and 5 million of the 90 million children estimated to be born between 2000 and 2030 will eventually die” from arsenic exposure. Arsenic is a naturally occurring chemical in groundwater, and is found in large quantities in countries throughout the Asian continent. Arsenic poisoning in Bangladesh was first discovered in 1995 by researchers who found that millions of tubewells provided by international donors in the 1970s and 1980s as safe substitutes to bacteria-infested surface water were harboring the poison. Today, there are an estimated 10 million shallow tubewells located throughout the country intended to provide clean water to the country’s roughly 66 percent rural population suffering from poor human development outcomes. The Bangladeshi government is facing harsh criticism for its irresponsiveness to the crisis, where “nepotism and neglect by Bangladeshi officials” are to blame and new, non-contaminated wells are only being dug in convenient locations for family, friends, and political supporters, rather than those most impacted by arsenic. 3. Relatives of top Chinese officials identified in Panama Papers. Among the 14,153 individuals connected to Mossack Fonseca, the Panamanian law firm known for helping clients establish offshore accounts, relatives of at least eight former or current members of China’s elite Politburo Standing Committee have been identified. These individuals include Chinese President Xi Jinping’s brother-in-law, Deng Jiagui; Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli’s son-in-law, Lee Shing Put; and propaganda head Liu Yunshan’s daughter-in-law, Jia Liqing. Deng’s offshore accounts had been closed or dormant by the time Xi took office. Relatives of officials are far from the only Chinese citizens to hold offshore accounts. Mossack Fonseca’s largest number of offices in any country worldwide were in China and its most active office was in Hong Kong. Approximately 29 percent of the firm’s companies came from the greater China region. While offshore accounts are not illegal in China, the number of political elites who hold such accounts may speak to a mounting sense of domestic political or economic insecurity. Key words linking the Panama Papers to the Chinese leadership were quickly censored, and it seems unlikely that these new revelations will significantly affect Xi’s ongoing anticorruption campaign. 4. Abe government says Article 9 does not prohibit ownership of nuclear weapons. The administration of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe stated that the Japanese constitution does not explicitly prohibit the country from possessing nuclear weapons. The position of the government was made clear in a written response last Friday to inquiries from two members of Diet, the Japanese parliament. The inquiry stems from a statement made by Cabinet member and the director-general of the Cabinet Legislation Bureau, Yusuke Yokobatake, on March 18 this year at a House of Councilors’ Budget Committee meeting, in response to a question asked by the opposition Democratic Party of Japan. Yokobatake noted that the administration does not think that “the use of all kinds of nuclear weapons is prohibited under the Constitution.” The government’s position on nuclear weapons is in line with that of previous prime ministers. Prime Minister Takeo Fukuda said in 1978 that the constitution does not “absolutely prohibit” Japan’s having nuclear weapons. However, he also emphasized that Japan should abide by the three non-nuclear principles raised in the 1960s by Prime Minister Eisaku Sato. Similarly, in the written response, the administration highlighted its firm commitment to the same principles. 5. Chinese media take a new approach. The Paper, a trendy online Chinese media outlet, launched a new English-language news site called Sixth Tone this week. Sixth Tone promises to cover stories that other outlets—whether foreign or state-owned—miss, mimicking The Paper, which has gained millions of readers since it launched in 2014, most of them among China’s “post-90s” generation. Both papers are a far cry from traditional state media outlets, whose articles range from boring to pointless to blatantly propagandist. In both its tone and the topics they choose to write about, The Paper has been willing to skirt much closer to lines the Chinese government does not permit news outlets to cross. The website has won accolades for deep investigations into corruption and official malpractice. Most recently, a story The Paper broke last month on tens of millions of dollars’ worth of improperly stored vaccines has spurred public debate in China. However, there are some topics The Paper (and presumably Sixth Tone) won’t touch. Shanghai United Media Group, which owns Sixth Tone and The Paper, is owned by the propaganda department of the Shanghai Communist Party Committee. At the end of the day, he who pays the piper calls the tune. Bonus: Viral ad about China’s “leftover women” tugs at netizens’ heartstrings. This week, a four-minute, documentary-style video entitled the “Marriage Market Takeover” sent emotional ripples throughout the Chinese web. Commissioned by the Japanese skin care company SK-II and part of a “a global campaign to inspire and empower women to shape their destiny,” the video focuses on the plight of so-called leftover women in China, or women over twenty-seven who may face intense social and familial pressure to get married. Leta Hong Fincher, the author of a book on China’s leftover women, stated that single Chinese women are at a “turning point,” and beginning to push back against the social stigma of being single and traditional conceptions of marriage. Though some on the Chinese web poke fun at the family pressure that young women face, for others, like one twenty-seven-year-old woman who attempted suicide last month because of marriage pressure, it is deadly serious.
  • North Korea
    A Trilateral on the Mend
    For the second time, President Barack Obama brought together President Park Geun-hye and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe for a trilateral summit on the sidelines of the Nuclear Security Summit. The first time in 2014 the president was facilitating a meeting the two leaders could not have on their own, but last week the improving relations between Seoul and Tokyo were obvious. While the United States has facilitated some of these improvements, ultimately it is North Korea and its provocations that brought the two U.S. allies back to the table. Whether the future of this trilateral can be bolder and more resilient remains to be seen. Asia’s diplomacy on the sidelines of President Obama’s Nuclear Security Summits matter greatly given the tremendous stakes in the choices made by our nonnuclear allies in Northeast Asia. Pyongyang has raised threat perceptions across Northeast Asia, just as its increasingly provocative behavior has put pressure on the defense preparedness of South Korea and Japan. North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs make it abundantly clear that sooner or later we will face a direct challenge to the credibility of the U.S. nuclear umbrella in Asia. It is important therefore that Japan, South Korea, and the United States maintain unity in their approach to the North. Last week, the three leaders spent the bulk of their time discussing how to manage this increasingly bold North Korea. With a nuclear test followed by an intermediate range ballistic missile test, multiple firings of shorter range missiles towards Japan, and some seriously concerning threats about a nuclear attack on the United States, it is no wonder that this was the focal point. The peace and stability of Northeast Asia depends on the ability of South Korea, Japan, and the United States to cooperate effectively to meet whatever challenges Pyongyang may pose. But the last several years of diplomatic estrangement between Seoul and Tokyo should also direct our attention to the need to build broader foundations of cooperation. Indeed, Deputy Secretary of State Anthony Blinken put forward an ambitious but eminently attainable agenda for the Japan-U.S.-South Korea trilateral just days before the leaders met. Having led a trilateral dialogue at the deputy secretary level between Japan, South Korea, and the United States for over a year, Blinken pointed out what many in Japan and South Korea have lost sight of –that the two societies have more in common than a tragic history. Together, the United States, South Korea, and Japan share a desire to lend their capacities and incredible human resources to the task of improving the well-being of citizens across the globe. The three governments have identified some important focal points for future trilateral cooperation, including climate change, counterterrorism, and the empowerment of women. We should not rush to close the door on the difficulties of the past several years in the Japan-South Korea relationship, however. President Park and Prime Minister Abe concluded an agreement that would address the deep reservations in each of their countries about the outstanding grievances regarding the treatment of women who worked in Japanese military brothels during World War II. Each government committed itself to a plan of action; and without hesitation, each government is responsible for implementing to the letter the terms of that agreement. Historical reconciliation, however, is not the work of one agreement or one peace treaty; it is the work of generations. And for generations now South Koreans and Japanese have sought to find common ground. It goes without saying that they will continue to need to reach out, to share perspective, and to commit to building a community in Asia and beyond that ensures the safety and security of women. The future of Northeast Asia rests on the success of this attempt to build a more resilient and ambitious agenda for cooperation between the United States, Japan, and South Korea. Each of these three countries will adapt and adjust their foreign policies as Asia changes, thus it will be important to nurture this partnership. When the world outside is less predictable, it never hurts to have friends who see their interests as you do. That vision of the U.S.-Japan-South Korea relationship must now take hold.
  • China
    Friday Asia Update: Five Stories From the Week of April 1, 2016
    Ashlyn Anderson, Rachel Brown, Lincoln Davidson, Gabriella Meltzer, Gabriel Walker, and Pei-Yu Wei look at five stories from Asia this week. 1. Anger, grief, and questions linger over debris of collapsed overpass in Kolkata. The collapse of the a major overpass under construction in Kolkata, India, has left officials and citizens scrambling for answers. Located in a densely populated market area, more than one hundred people were crushed by falling debris, and at least twenty-five deaths have been confirmed. The National Disaster Response Force and the Indian Army responded to rescue those trapped beneath the rubble, and the Kolkata police appointed a special investigation team to determine the cause of the collapse. One official of IVRCL, the company charged with building the Vivekananda Road overpass, called it “a god’s act,” while another denied that the collapse was a result of poor construction quality. Three officials of the company have been arrested. West Bengal’s Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee was quick to promise that those responsible for the collapse would be held accountable, but some have turned her statement around and questioned Banerjee’s responsibility. Pressure had been mounting to complete the project after it missed the first five deadlines. Others have viewed the overpass collapse as emblematic of the challenges India faces to meet its grand infrastructure needs. 2. TEPCO activates underground “ice wall” to contain Fukushima waste. On Thursday, Tokyo Electric Power Co. (TEPCO) fired up a massive underground cooling system designed to prevent radioactive groundwater from leaking from the damaged Fukushima nuclear power plant into the Pacific. Nearly 800,000 tons of radioactive water has already been captured and stored on-site. The “ice wall,” which was first proposed in 2013 and cost the government around $300 million, will operate something like a giant ice rink: refrigerant will be pumped through approximately 1,550 pipes sunk more than a mile into the ground around the plant, freezing the soil and theoretically preventing any further groundwater from entering the contaminated basement of the plant. Whether the method, which has been used before on much smaller scales, will be effective remains to be seen. The “wall” will take several months to form, and officials project that if successful, it will allow the plant basements to be dried by 2020. Chairman of the Nuclear Regulation Authority Shunichi Tanaka cautioned against high expectations, stating that “It would be best to think that natural phenomena don’t work the way you would expect.” 3. Mongolians protest loss of mineral wealth. More than two thousand people demonstrated in Ulaanbaatar, the capital of Mongolia, this week in opposition to what they see as overly concessionary mineral rights deals the government has struck with foreign mining conglomerates. They also criticized connections between lawmakers and firms that have a stake in the country’s mines. Their concerns have deeper roots than shady deals by politicians, however: as recently as 2011, Mongolia’s economy was growing at 17 percent annually as investors rushed to dig into some of the world’s largest untapped mines. But as global demand for commodities dropped, the economy stagnated, a challenge natural resource–driven boomtowns around the world have faced as commodity prices have declined. Mongolia’s unemployment rate is now at 8.3 percent, and with no end to the commodity glut in sight, the situation looks grim. 4. Vietnam teeters on the brink of TB resurgence. Despite its stunning success thus far in curing its tuberculosis (TB) epidemic, Vietnam’s healthcare system is currently in a fragile position to tackle the airborne disease due to a lack of funding and changing demographics. Between 1990 and 2014, prevalence of the disease dropped from 600 to 200 out of 100,000 residents, placing the country on a strong trajectory to reach its goal of twenty cases per 100,000. This success is largely due to Vietnam’s socialist policies, by which the government has invested vast resources into primary care and doctors in local clinics, who strictly follow WHO’s DOTS guidelines through close monitoring of patient compliance to treatment regimens. However, the Vietnamese government currently faces a 72 percent funding gap, as $19 million out of its current $26 million budget is derived from foreign donors such as USAID and the Global Fund. As incomes rise in metropolitan areas, greater numbers of Vietnamese citizens are turning to private physicians for care, many of whom are less compliant with traditionally successful, yet harsh treatment procedures. These fiscal and social strains on Vietnam’s healthcare system make it far more difficult to treat hard-to-reach patients who carry highly virulent and lethal MDR (multiple drug-resistant) or XDR (extensively drug-resistant) TB, such as drug addicts and individuals from non-Vietnamese-speaking indigenous populations who are not bound by any quarantine laws. 5. Foxconn finalizes Sharp takeover. The Taiwanese manufacturer Foxconn purchased a 66 percent stake in the Japanese electronics firm for approximately $3.5 billion this week, completing a turbulent acquisition. The takeover was seen as a strategic play for Foxconn, best known for producing iPhones, to move into providing screens for the phones as well. Though nearly one-quarter of iPhone screens already come from Sharp, the deal could prove risky. A previous Foxconn acquisition of the screen maker Chimei Innolux has not been as successful as initially hoped and Sharp’s profits have flagged in recent years. The final price paid by Foxconn was almost $2.5 billion less than what had been proposed in earlier negotiations before Sharp disclosed additional financial liabilities that threatened to derail the acquisition. It is rumored that Foxconn will quickly shake up Sharp’s leadership, including selecting a majority of board positions and potentially a new CEO. Bonus: Murder of four-year-old sparks capital punishment debate in Taiwan. A four-year-old girl was murdered on the streets of Taipei this Monday morning, while she and her mother were about to pick up her younger siblings from a subway station. The suspect is a thirty-three-year-old man surnamed Wang who was brought down by bystanders and is currently in custody. It is reported that he has had a history of mental illness. Wang said that he was under the influence of narcotics, though an examination at the hospital found otherwise. Debates over the death penalty, which Taiwan still practices, reignited in the aftermath of the tragedy, the third random killing of a child in five years on the usually safe island that enjoys a very low crime rate.  At the latest polling, 84 percent of the respondents supports the retention of capital punishment, and only 8 percent wish to see it abolished, a result in line with the past trend of majority popular support for the death penalty. The Legislative Yuan, Taiwan’s highest lawmaking institution, is debating an addition to the Criminal Code that would automatically sentence people who are found guilty of killing children under the age of twelve to the death penalty or life in prison without the possibility of parole.
  • U.S. Foreign Policy
    U.S. Rebalance to Asia
    In her testimony before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Sheila A. Smith discusses the roles in which the U.S. Congress can play in ensuring strong U.S. presence in the changing Asia-Pacific region.