Japan

Rachel Brown, Lincoln Davidson, Ariella Rotenberg, Ayumi Teraoka, and Gabriel Walker look at five stories from Asia this week. 1. Indonesians protest ride-hailing apps. Traffic in notoriously congested Jakarta came to a near standstill this week when approximately ten thousand taxi drivers protested popular ride-hailing apps like Grab, Go-Jek, and Uber, which have driven down taxi fares in the city. Some of the protesters turned violent and attacked other taxis not participating in the protests, leading to the arrest of eighty-three individuals. Many of the protesting drivers work for the Blue Bird taxi company, which has approximately 32,500 cars, making its fleet larger than those of Grab and Uber combined. In response, President Joko Widodo advocated a “fair” resolution between traditional and app-based transportation companies. Two days after the protests, the transportation minister announced that to maintain operations in Indonesia, app-based services will have to register their vehicles and work with traditional transportation firms. While the Indonesian government contemplated banning such apps last December, it ultimately decided against it. 2. Uber sues Ola, India-based ride app competitor. Uber filed a lawsuit earlier this week against Bangalore’s ANI Technologies Pvt. Ltd., which owns Ola, another popular ride-sharing app. Uber has accused Ola of creating tens of thousands of fake accounts and using them to falsely place orders to Uber, which Uber insists disrupts its business. Ola has denied the allegations and claims that it is a publicity stunt for Uber to deflect press about their shrinking market share in India. Uber and Ola have been battling for market share for a long time, and this is only the latest flare-up in tensions. The fight parallels that between Uber and its rival in the United States, Lyft. Similar to Lyft, which competes with Uber over lower prices, drivers, and market share, Ola has given Uber a run for its money in India. 3. Self-nominated independents try for National Assembly seats in Vietnam. In an exciting first, around one hundred potential independent candidates, more than ever before, have registered to run in the May legislative elections in Vietnam. The country, which is governed by the Communist Party of Vietnam, has allowed independents to run since 2002, but until now only seven, who have typically been Party members or individuals with government connections, have ever won seats. To some, the diversity of this year’s independents—including activists like Mai Khoi, a singer-songwriter with a progressive bent, and Nguyen Cong Vuong, a stand-up comedian—represent an increasingly open and pluralistic political process. Some government organs and state media, however, have overtly criticized independent candidates as “troublesome citizens.” Critics of the electoral system argue that it is designed to be controlled by the Party. The real test of Vietnam’s political process and democratic spirit is yet to come, as registered candidates still need further approval to run in May. 4. Abe meets with Nobel laureates for economic advice. For two weeks in a row, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe met with Nobel laureates Paul Krugman and Joseph Stiglitz for economic advice, both of whom are outspoken supporters of aggressive stimulus measures. As expected, they both advised Abe against a further tax increase that the country’s cabinet is scheduled to enact in April 2017. The planned hike for the consumption tax, from 8 to 10 percent, is a result of an agreement made among three political parties in 2012, including Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), then an opposition party led by Sadakazu Tanigaki. Abe’s close economic advisors are also opposed to the planned tax increase, as it only undermines Abe’s economic stimulus policies to encourage household spending. The Japanese economy still suffers from weak consumption, but Abe has stated in the Diet that the postponement of the consumption tax hike is a political decision. While he often emphasizes his willingness to implement the hike as a responsible party leader of the LDP, the decision to meet with Krugman and Stiglitz at this time suggests, by some reports, that Abe is determined to put off increasing the consumption tax. 5. Party assets contentious issue in race for KMT chair. Candidates for chairperson of Taiwan’s Kuomintang (KMT), the political party of outgoing president Ma Ying-jeou, all support increasing transparency of the party’s assets, but have disagreed on how the assets should be handled. The KMT is one of the wealthiest political parties in the world, with assets rumored to be worth more than $3 billion (although the party itself claims to only have $500 million), many acquired when the KMT confiscated the assets of Japanese nationals in Taiwan following Japan’s defeat in World War II. Since the Republic of China democratized in the 1990s and other parties were allowed to operate, critics of the KMT have repeatedly called on the party to return its assets to the state, but the KMT has been slow to act. The dispute was stirred up this week over rumors that the party is looking to sell the Grand Hotel in Yuanshan—a landmark of Taipei, the nation’s capital—to an American businessman. While it’s not clear the hotel is even owned in the party, the rumors seem to be substantiated by the fact that KMT assets are viewed as too toxic for any domestic investors to touch. Bonus: Facebook founder tries to add Chinese friends. On a visit to China this week, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg met with Alibaba founder Jack Ma and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) censorship and propaganda chief Liu Yunshan. According to state media, while meeting with Liu Zuckerberg “spoke highly of the progress China has made in internet field, saying he would work with Chinese peers to create a better world in cyberspace.” The social network founder followed that up by posting on Facebook about his jog through smoggy Beijing; critics were quick to point out that despite “speaking highly” of China’s approach to the Internet, he was quick to use a VPN to skirt Chinese censors and post on Facebook. In response, those same censors rushed to Zuckerberg’s defense after Chinese netizens began teasing him. Why is Zuckerberg so eager to genuflect to the Chinese government, while throwing temper tantrums over restrictions on Facebook’s business imposed by other governments? Perhaps because China’s 660 million Internet users are an appealing market. Let’s hope Zuckerberg doesn’t stoop so low that they don’t want him once Facebook’s let back in to the country.

Ashlyn Anderson, Rachel Brown, Lincoln Davidson, Ariella Rotenberg, Gabriel Walker, and Pei-Yu Wei look at five stories from Asia this week. 1. Bangladeshi bank chief resigns after $101 million cyber theft. The governor of Bangladesh’s central bank stepped down in the wake of a financial heist involving hackers, casinos, and multiple Asian nations. In early February, $81 million were transferred electronically from Bangladesh’s Federal Reserve Bank of New York account to the Philippines, mainly to accounts at the Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation. The funds were eventually laundered through casinos, which are not required to adhere to some of the nation’s money-laundering regulations. Hackers also attempted other transactions, including one to Sri Lanka for $20 million, which was stopped after a typo in the transfer request raised alarms. The crime has sparked a debate between officials in Bangladesh and at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York over culpability, with Bangladesh threatening to sue the New York Fed to get the money back, since the Fed did not confirm transfers made with the Bangladeshi central bank’s SWIFT codes. The Fed has maintained that it followed appropriate procedures and that its systems remain secure. 2. Another district falls to the Taliban in Afghanistan. A district of Afghanistan’s southern Helmand Province fell the Taliban this past Tuesday, making an important addition to the insurgent-controlled area. Government forces fled the government center in Khan Deshin after a firefight that lasted from Monday night until five in the morning on Tuesday. After Tuesday, the Taliban has overthrown the government centers in five of fourteen districts in Helmand Province. At least two additional districts have large areas of under Taliban control, while government forces are still in those government centers. In at least four other districts, the Taliban is considered to be very active. By many calculations, more than half of the province is now under insurgent control. 3. There’s money to be made in China’s aging. That’s the bet that Bain Capital is making, at least. The company announced this week that it had purchased a controlling stake in Asia Pacific Medical Group, a medical-services provider that operates seven hospitals and twenty-two clinics throughout China and Southeast Asia, according to the company’s website. China is aging rapidly—by 2050, the country’s median age will be forty-nine and 26 percent of the population will be over the age of sixty-five—compounding its already challenging demographic problems. The Chinese government is struggling to respond. In October 2015, the government ended the one-child policy. And late last month, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security announced it would release a plan next year to raise the retirement age by 2022, likely to counteract a looming funding shortage for the state’s pension commitments. 4. Trump sparks alarm in Japan. As polls opened this Tuesday for primaries in five states, the Japanese government is faced with the possibility of its closest trading partner and security ally electing Donald Trump as president. Having criticized Japan on his campaign trail for manipulating the yen and hurting U.S. employment, and for “playing unfairly” on defense, Trump’s remarks have led to analysts noting that due to the public sentiment he has stirred up, Japan-U.S. ties could suffer even if Trump were not nominated or elected. Japanese media have become increasingly critical of Trump, with one column proclaiming, “Trump’s Japan-bashing shows why he’s unfit to lead America.” Originally entertained by Trump’s campaign, Japanese officials now find themselves facing the challenge of identifying the right moment to step in and correct the misunderstandings caused by Trump’s statements, as they fear that rushed correction of Trump’s statements may backfire. Japan is not the only country that has started to hit back. China, another country that Trump has often targeted, ran an opinion piece in the state-owned Global Times newspaper this week that labeled Trump as “big-mouthed” and a “clown,” and compared his rise to those of Mussolini and Hitler. 5. Argentine coast guard sinks Chinese fishing boat. On Wednesday, in coastal waters around 750 miles south of Buenos Aires, Argentina’s coast guard sank a Chinese fishing boat operating illegally in the country’s exclusive economic zone. According to reports, the Chinese trawler responded to initial warning shots by shutting off its lights and trying to ram the Argentine ship, prompting the latter to fire defensive shots and sink the Chinese vessel. Four crew members were detained, and twenty-eight more were rescued by nearby Chinese ships. The confrontation was a rare occurrence, as Chinese fishing vessels are typically cooperative with the Argentine coast guard. China has subsequently demanded an investigation into the dispute to ensure the safety and rights of Chinese fishermen if similar incidents should ever occur in the future. China has the world’s largest fishing fleet, with nearly 2,500 “distant-water” vessels operating around the world far from Chinese coastal waters. Bonus: A transplanted Afghan bazaar offers artisans a receptive audience in Washington, D.C. Potters, carpenters, rug weavers, jewelers, and a host of other Afghan artisans are setting up shop at the Smithsonian Institution for the next eleven months. Afghan artisans will have the opportunity to share their work in a recreated bazaar environment as part of the Turquoise Mountain: Artists Transforming Afghanistan exhibit. Turquoise Mountains is a break from traditional museum exhibits and intended to be an all-sensory experience based on the “IPOP” exhibit elements—ideas, people, objects, and physical. In addition to offering a unique museum experience, the exhibit also provides a platform for the artisans to renew global interest in the old traditions of the Silk Road.

Ashlyn Anderson, Rachel Brown, Lincoln Davidson, Ariella Rotenberg, Gabriel Walker, and Pei-Yu Wei look at five stories from Asia this week. 1. Indian Prime Minister Modi earns points for his “Make in India” campaign. Attesting to the increasing vitality and quality of India’s automobile industry, Maruti Suzuki, a special joint venture set up in 1983 between India’s Maruti Udyog and Japan’s Suzuki, began exporting to Japan its new hatchback automobile, the Baleno. Although Suzuki has been operating with Maruti in India for decades, this is the first time an Indian-made car is available for export to the Japanese market. To start, Japan plans to import twenty to thirty thousand cars per year; the car will also eventually be exported to over one hundred other countries. As the “undisputed leader of the Indian market,” Maruti Suzuki manufacturers half of all passenger vehicles made in India. But competition is increasing: with India’s huge population and growing middle class, the world’s automobile manufacturers are increasingly gravitating toward India to set up and expand shop. 2. Suicide attack at Pakistani court kills over a dozen. After forcing his way through the main entrance of a Pakistani court compound on Monday morning, a suicide bomber shot a police officer who tried to stop him and then detonated his suicide vest. Sixteen people were killed and several others remain in critical condition. The supposed aim of the bomber was to reach the civil court, which is reserved for family disputes on Mondays and therefore was busier than usual. Luckily the police stopped the bomber before he could reach the civil court building. Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, an offshoot of the group Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan claimed responsibility for the attack. Their spokesperson claims it was in retaliation for the hanging of Malik Mumtaz Hussain Qadri, a former security guard who assassinated the governor of Punjab province in 2001. The governor, Salmaan Taseer, was calling to reform the country’s blasphemy laws in 2001, which greatly upset the Taliban and its followers, such as Qadri. 3. China offers Afghanistan expanded military aid. The chief of the People’s Liberation Army’s Joint Staff Department, Fang Fenghui, pledged additional military aid to Afghanistan during a meeting with the Afghan national security adviser.  Overall, China has extended approximately $70 million in military assistance to the nation. Afghan officials are now putting together a “wish list” of military equipment they hope to acquire.  China has recently taken a more active stance on promoting Afghan security.  This stance may stem from a number of Chinese concerns relevant to Afghanistan, including a ninety-kilometer border with the restive Chinese autonomous region of Xinjiang, the rise of the Islamic State, and the safety of investments such as a $3 billion Mes Aynak copper mine in Afghanistan and the $46 billion China Pakistan Economic Corridor. China is also a part of the four-country peace talks to reach an agreement between the Afghan government and the Taliban. 4. Viral video pressures Unilever to settle mercury exposure claim in India. Fifteen years ago, a thermometer factory operated by Hindustan Unilever in Kodaikanal, Tamil Nadu, was shuttered because villagers found illegal mercury-laden waste in a local dump site. This week, 591 factory workers suffering from mercury-related illnesses have finally received a settlement from the company, bringing closure to a long and difficult legal battle. The workers’ union, which claims that forty-five factory employees and eighteen children died due to the effects of mercury, chose to withdraw its ten-year-old petition after reaching the undisclosed, ex-gratia settlement. In earlier years, various investigations reached contradictory conclusions regarding whether workers’ health had actually been affected. But last summer, a twenty-eight-year-old India rapper released a protest music video that later went viral and garnered over 60,000 signatures in a petition urging Hindustan Unilever to clean the site and compensate its workers. Activists say the battle is only “half won,” however, as environmentalists are still fighting to have the company remove residual mercury from polluted soil. 5. Chinese firm sanctioned over Iran business. The United States announced sanctions on Monday prohibiting the sale of items made in the United States to ZTE, a Chinese producer of telecommunications and networking equipment, claiming the company sells to Iran, violating U.S. law. Officials released internal company memos that state that ZTE “does business with all five major embargoed countries—Iran, Sudan, North Korea, Syria and Cuba—and propose establishing shell companies to get around sanctions. China’s foreign ministry criticized the export restrictions and the company is looking into resolving the issue after requesting that its shares suspend trading on the Hong Kong and Shenzhen exchanges. In the meantime, companies that wish to continue supplying ZTE with U.S.-manufactured products must apply to the U.S. Department of Commerce for permission. This isn’t the first time ZTE has tangled with the United States government: in 2012, a congressional investigation claimed that the company’s equipment posed a security threat because of ties to the Chinese government. Bonus: McDonald’s comes out with controversial ad in Taiwan. A Taiwanese commercial featuring a young gay man coming out to his father in a McDonald’s restaurant has gone viral. McDonald’s Taiwan posted the ad on its Facebook page on March 4, and over the past week has received both criticism and praise. The commercial was met with protests from Taiwan’s religious community. For example, the Alliance of Taiwan Religious Groups for the Protection of Family stated that, “Now, even if you want to just take a leak at a McDonald’s bathroom, you can’t help but feel polluted,” and added that it would boycott the fast food chain. However, online reaction has been overwhelmingly positive, which is unsurprising given that public support for same-sex marriage equality has been rising in recent decades. 71 percent of the respondents to a 2015 Taiwanese Ministry of Justice poll supported marriage equality.

Ayumi Teraoka is research associate for Japan studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Many people across Japan observed a moment of silence at 2:46 P.M. on March 11, 2016—five years after the fourth biggest earthquake in history struck Japan’s Northeast, bringing about the “triple disaster” that included an earthquake, a tsunami, and the nuclear plant meltdown in Fukushima. The government-sponsored memorial ceremony in Tokyo was attended by Emperor Akihito, Empress Michiko, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the chairmen of both Houses of the Parliament, the Supreme Court Chief Justice, and families of the victims. Emperor Akihito and Prime Minister Abe both stressed the importance of passing the lessons of the tragedy to future Japanese generations and the international community. The day has also become a moment for the Japanese to reflect upon the international support Japan has received in response to the devastating disaster. In particular, the United States has stood side-by-side with Japan, providing significant military and civilian support for disaster response and the reconstruction of the Tohoku region. Commander of U.S. Forces, Japan Lieutenant General John Dolan, released a statement today saying that, “the unprecedented U.S. and Japanese recovery operation was carried out in the spirit of friendship that animates our alliance.” Furthermore, American donations totaled $746.1 million, making the United States the largest donor. The Embassy of Japan in the United States also released a video to thank the United States for its support. It is also important to note, however, that reconstruction of the devastated region is far from finished. On the fifth anniversary of the tragedy, Sheila Smith, CFR senior fellow for Japan studies, provided her analysis on the developments and implications of the triple disaster. Read here

Rachel Brown, Lincoln Davidson, and Gabriel Walker look at five stories from Asia this week. 1. U.S. admiral proposes reviving naval coalition with Australia, India, and Japan. On Wednesday, Admiral Harry B. Harris, commander of the U.S. Pacific Command, proposed reviving an informal strategic coalition between the U.S., Australian, Indian, and Japanese navies. Although Harris did not specifically name China in the proposal, and instead mentioned powerful nations seeking to “bully smaller nations,” the alliance would likely serve as a military tool to balance China’s maritime expansion in the Indo-Pacific region. While some analysts are skeptical of India’s willingness to get involved in the South China Sea dispute, India has increased its naval cooperation with the United States in the past few years as China has furthered its plans for a “maritime silk road” through ports in Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. One expert called India’s increasing involvement a “tit-for-tat” response to perceived growing Chinese influence in the Indian Ocean. Asked about joint naval exercises between U.S., Indian, and Japanese vessels to be held later this year, Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs Spokesperson Hong Lei stated, “We hope the cooperation of relevant countries will benefit regional peace and security, and not harm the interests of third parties.” 2. Jailed Afghan women subjected to virginity tests. The Independent Human Rights Commission in Afghanistan reported that officials often require imprisoned females to undergo invasive virginity tests. Such tests are intended to provide evidence in adultery cases, although the World Health Organization has proclaimed the procedure inaccurate and in violation of women’s rights. The commission found that over 90 percent of the fifty-three women interviewed in twelve provinces had received the test. While there have been significant gains in women’s rights since the fall of the Taliban, considerable challenges remain. Human Rights Watch reported in 2013 that approximately six hundred Afghan females were jailed for “moral crimes,” including adultery and running away from home. Today the number of Afghan women imprisoned for all crimes is approximately 750. In Afghan women’s prisons those jailed for moral crimes are often mixed in with those imprisoned for other more violent crimes, which can lead to an unstable and dangerous environment. Afghanistan’s Law on the Elimination of Violence Against Women was passed in 2009 by executive order but without the support of the country’s parliament. Concerns about the protection of women’s rights and sustained funding for development programs will likely intensify following the eventual withdrawal of coalition forces from Afghanistan. 3. North Korea readies warheads after new UN sanctions. Earlier this week, after the United Nations (UN) Security Council unanimously approved new sanctions on North Korea, which greatly broaden the scope of previous measures, the country’s Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un has raised the stakes. According to North Korean state media, during a missile drill on Friday, Kim urged the military to have its nuclear warheads deployed and ready at all times for national self-defense. The same day, it also released a statement that called the new UN resolution a “heinous provocation.” While there is no consensus on whether North Korea actually has nuclear-tipped missiles, it is estimated that it possesses around a dozen small nuclear explosives. Furthermore, in the past North Korea has increased its threatening rhetoric before annual U.S.-South Korean joint military exercises, which it views as aimed at overthrowing the North Korean government. This year’s drills, set to take place next month, will be the largest ever and will involve 15,000 U.S. troops, twice as many as last year. 4. TEPCO execs indicted over nuclear disaster. Three former executives of the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) were charged this week with negligence related to their role in the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear incident. Nuclear reactors at the power plant suffered a meltdown after being struck by an earthquake and tsunami on March 11, 2011. The executives—a former TEPCO chairman and the former directors of the company’s nuclear division—have been accused of contributing to the deaths of forty-four people who died as a result of a government-ordered evacuation of the area twenty kilometers around the plant. Prosecutors earlier declined to charge the executives, citing the difficulty of proving they were criminally negligent by not protecting the nuclear plant from a tsunami, but two citizen committees overturned that decision, and the executives will now face charges in court. Meanwhile, the 160,000 people who evacuated the area around Fukushima Daiichi are still unable to return to their homes five years after the fact. 5. Indonesia’s budget in question. Indonesia’s finance minister announced this week that the nation planned to reduce spending as the fall in global oil prices slams the Indonesian economy. Already the drop in oil prices is projected to reduce government revenues by approximately $6 billion. The reduced revenues come in the midst of strife within the Indonesian parliament over a proposed tax amnesty bill. While the government argues that the new revenue generated under the bill is needed for the budget, some lawmakers have attempted to connect its passage to another law limiting the power of Indonesia’s anticorruption agency. Currently out of Indonesia’s 250 million citizens, only 900,000 pay the full amount of income taxes owed.  The tax amnesty bill would let citizens declare assets inside Indonesia and abroad and then pay low taxes on those assets. The Indonesian finance minister has declared the share of tax revenue to GDP must rise from 11 percent to 13–14 percent. In the absence of strong oil revenues, greater tax revenue could help pay for new infrastructure projects, a priority of President Joko Widodo’s platform for the presidency in 2014. Bonus: Chinese government cracks down on selfie sticks. This coming week, when thousands of delegates convene in Beijing for the Chinese government’s most significant two meetings of the year, called the lianghui, one thing will be missing: selfie sticks. Last year, the devices were a favorite among meeting delegates eager to snap pictures of themselves at the important event, but this year both delegates and journalists have been banned from using them in the Great Hall of the People. The ruling comes during a tense start to the meetings, because of China’s recent uneasy political climate for members of the Communist Party and the Chinese media. Luckily, even without the handy sticks, attendees’ enthusiasm for taking selfies appeared happily undiminished.

James Gannon is executive director of the Japan Center for International Exchange (JCIE)/USA, and Ryo Sahashi is associate professor at Kanagawa University and research fellow at the JCIE. Barely three years ago, Japan watchers were wondering what it would take to break the country’s streak of short-term prime ministers—six premiers had cycled through office in six years and a total of fourteen in two decades. Then Shinzo Abe upended expectations by returning to power and projecting an aura of strong leadership. He has already become one of Japan’s longest-serving prime ministers and, in the process, racked up an impressive list of foreign policy accomplishments. In light of his success, one could assume that the problem of short-lived, weak prime ministers is a thing of the past. But a recent Japan Center for International Exchange study, Looking for Leadership, warns that Abe may be the exception rather than the rule. Post-Abe, Japan is likely to slip back into the pattern of frequent leadership changes. Abe has managed to succeed since returning to the premiership in December 2012, in contrast to his disappointing performance in his first term in office a decade ago. Then the prime minister was widely perceived as lacking the political skills that the job required. His government seemed adrift, floating from one scandal to another, prioritizing issues such as “patriotic education” with limited appeal to the general public, and seemingly lacking any clear message or mission. Yet this time the Abe government has shown considerable skill in juggling politics and policymaking. The Abe cabinet made economic revitalization its top priority, deftly packaging it as Abenomics and rolling it out in a way that branded Abe as a bold leader. The cabinet has carefully managed its approval ratings by sequencing major initiatives with the political calendar, ensuring that controversial measures were wrapped up well before elections to give the ruling party time to rebound from any political damage. And Abe leveraged his political momentum to silence intra-party rivals, for example ensuring that all of the cabinet members fell in line behind him. Much of the credit for this deft political management could be given to Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, however it is also clear that Abe learned a great deal about political pragmatism and how to shepherd his political capital in the wilderness. Nonetheless, the Abe cabinet would never have been able to play its hand so well without its good luck and timing. The greatest gift that a politician can receive is a deeply flawed enemy, and Abe has benefited enormously from the haplessness of his opposition. He returned to power in a landslide victory, which even he admitted was more a sign of voter disgust with the failure of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) than support for his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). This gave his ruling coalition the rare advantage of a veto-proof, two-thirds majority in the Lower House. Since then, the continuing missteps of the DPJ and a yearning for political stability have helped Abe to maintain public support and party unity. The electoral landscape was also favorable to Abe. He came into office via a general election, which gave him greater credibility than if he had just inherited the post after a party election, as most of Japan’s prime ministers do. There was no unified opposition in the Upper House that could easily block his plans. Plus, Abe faced the July 2013 Upper House while his popularity was still cresting, and once he successfully passed that hurdle he did not face any other mandatory party or general elections for over two years, more than enough time for Abe to consolidate his power and allow his government to pick and choose its electoral battles. This combination of skillful political management, good timing, and no small measure of luck has enabled the Abe government to overcome the Japanese system’s daunting institutional obstacles to strong prime ministerial leadership. However, once he steps down, his successors will face the same institutional constraints that have made it so hard for previous prime ministers to lead. For one, in Japan, the prime minister still has remarkably little direct control over the legislative process, which makes it surprisingly difficult for him to implement his agenda. Unlike the United Kingdom, where the cabinet decides which legislation goes forward and how to sequence it, Japanese legislative agenda and timetable remain the prerogative of the Diet’s committee chairmen and steering committees. This allows backbenchers to delay or block legislation even when it is a top priority for the cabinet, and the resulting legislative gridlock has increasingly exacted a heavy toll during elections. Abe’s successors are unlikely to come into office with a strong hand that they can dominate party rivals and steamroll the opposition from the start in the way Abe did. Second, the Upper House has increasingly become a stumbling block for Tokyo’s ruling parties. The 1993 introduction of winner-takes-all, single-member districts for the Lower House—combined with declining party loyalty—has made it more likely for power in the Lower House to alternate between two major parties or coalitions. But the Upper House is still elected through a proportional representation system, giving greater opportunity to Japan’s smaller opposition parties, diversifying its make-up. Coupled with the different timing of Upper and Lower House elections, this increases the chances that Japan’s voters give the opposition parties a bigger voice in the Upper chamber. Since Japan’s Upper House is more powerful than other parliamentary systems, both the DPJ and the LDP while in opposition have proven adept at exploiting its powers to hold government policy hostage. Four of five previous premiers—Yasuo Fukuda and Taro Aso of the LDP and Naoto Kan and Yoshihiko Noda of the DPJ—were brought down as the opposition in the Upper House stymied their legislative priorities. Sheer electoral math tells that Abe will retain control of the Upper House in this summer’s elections—given the ruling coalition’s seventy-seven seats that are not up for a vote this time, so it only needs to win slightly more than three-quarters of the seats it has in play to retain the majority. But the institutional pressures for divergence between Upper and Lower Houses are likely to reassert themselves in time, especially if there is a more viable opposition to draw votes away from the LDP. Finally, the increasing unpredictability of public support means that prime ministers pay a higher price when facing these kinds of institutional obstacles. Over the past two decades, public support has grown more volatile, with cabinet approval ratings for new governments starting out higher than before, but declining more precipitously when the prime minister fails to live up to expectations. As a result, a form of “polling politics” has emerged whereby both the LDP and the DPJ have been quick to oust their leaders when their approval ratings drop below a certain threshold. Abe has managed to avoid these perils thanks in part to a discredited opposition, yet his successors are unlikely to face such a favorable political climate. What does the likelihood of a return to the pattern of short-lived leaders mean for Japan’s friends? Five trends in Japanese foreign policymaking are likely to emerge. First, and perhaps counterintuitively, a high turnover in prime ministers will produce even greater continuity and conservatism in Japan’s overarching foreign policy line. Typically, only strong leaders who managed to stay in office for extended periods have succeeded at driving major shifts in foreign policy—think Shigeru Yoshida, Yasuhiro Nakasone, and Junichiro Koizumi—while weaker ones who moved too rashly, like Yukio Hatoyama, have paid a steep political price. Second, a vacuum of political leadership will give bureaucrats a greater role in foreign affairs. This can reinforce the tendency toward continuity. But it also is likely to result in a greater stinginess in development assistance, one of Japan’s traditional instruments of influence abroad, as the powerful finance ministry gains a freer hand to advance its number one priority—cutting the national debt. Third, Japan will have difficulty maintaining a strong international presence if domestic political pressures present leaders from developing ties with other world leaders. Furthermore, diplomatic crises could become more frequently if new leaders lack the experience to manage international crises. Fourth, with no clear leadership hierarchy, ambitious politicians are more tempted to resort to populist appeals to advance their careers, especially when senior leaders have less clout to tone down their rhetoric. Former Osaka Governor Toru Hashimoto’s appearance has shown how a blunt and outspoken critic could rapidly gain national prominence at a time when personal popularity becomes the currency of politics. Finally, a return to the pattern of frequently rotating leaders is likely to feed the gridlock that has become all too common on sticky foreign policy issues, such as the Futenma base relocation. This arguably makes it important for the United States to push hard to resolve politically sensitive issues while a proven leader like Abe is in office, but then be prepared to dial things back and focus more on lower-profile relationship maintenance when weaker leaders take the helm. Of course, Abe’s track record gives his successors ideas for how to buck this trend of weak, short-lived leaders. But replicating the Abe cabinet’s success will not be easy under the current political system. Without further reform to rectify the imbalances at home, Japanese prime ministers seem destined to struggle to project strong leadership abroad.

Ashlyn Anderson, Rachel Brown, Lincoln Davidson, Ariella Rotenberg, Gabriel Walker, and Pei-Yu Wei look at five stories from Asia this week. 1. Indian Supreme Court scheduled to review discriminatory law against India’s LGBT community. In a win for LGBT activists, the Indian Supreme Court agreed to take another look at Section 377 of the Indian Penal Code, which effectively criminalizes India’s LGBT community. After the Delhi High Court ruled in 2009 to strike out Section 377, a relic of British colonial rule, it was overturned by the Indian Supreme Court in 2013. On Tuesday, the court decided to hear a “curative petition” to the 2013 ruling. Not only is the language of the section subject to convenient interpretation—specifically outlawing “carnal intercourse against the order of nature”—but the law fuels prejudices in Indian society by labeling LGBT citizens as criminals. Ironically, India has a long tradition of sexual tolerance, as seen in ancient texts such as the Kama Sutra—it was British anti-sodomy laws that criminalized sexuality. Moreover, India’s hijra, or transgender and transsexual, community has featured prominently throughout four thousand years of Indian history. In a potential sign of recognition of the discrimination caused by Section 377, in 2014 the Indian Supreme Court ruled to create a “third gender” legal status for India’s hijras. Now, the court will consider removing Section 377 altogether, again. 2. Chinese online lender turns out to be $7.6 billion Ponzi scheme. Earlier this week, Chinese state media broadcast confessions by executives of online peer-to-peer (P2P) lender Ezubao, admitting that the company was a Ponzi scheme. More than nine hundred thousand individuals put money into the company, spurred on in part by a veneer of legitimacy lent to Ezubao by its connections with state institutions, including the National People’s Congress. While it is smaller in dollar terms than the Ponzi scheme run by New York financier Bernie Madoff, only about five thousand people invested in that case. In some ways, the scheme is not a surprise: P2P platforms have taken off rapidly in China because small and medium enterprises’ (SMEs) demand for credit is not met by Chinese banks. However, analysts have argued that the returns promised by many of these platforms—often as high as 15 percent—were unrealistic and unsustainable, and many have already had problems with repayment. The Chinese government has already taken some steps to crack down on online lending. When Chinese markets dropped precipitously last July, regulators tightened rules on offering margin financing to borrowers pledging shares as collateral, then released new rules for P2P lenders. In the case of Ezubao, more oversight was needed. However, regulators must be careful to not overly restrict an industry critical to the growth of Chinese SMEs. 3. Airstrikes in Afghanistan kill twenty-nine terrorists affiliated with the Islamic State. The United States launched airstrikes in Afghanistan that destroyed an Islamic State (IS) FM radio station, “Voice of the Caliphate,” that had been operating illegally in the eastern part of the country. In Afghanistan, a country where few people own televisions and only 10 percent of the country has access to the Internet, radio is the most important source of mass media. The now-destroyed IS radio station was broadcasting into Nangarhar’s capital city of Jalalabad.  Most news sources are reporting that twenty-nine IS terrorists were killed in the airstrikes, including five to eight who worked directly for the radio station. The U.S. Department of State recently added the Afghan IS affiliate to its official terrorist organization list, thereby granting legal authority for direct U.S. military engagement against the group. 4. Taiwan’s Foxconn sets sights on Japan’s Sharp. According to Terry Gou, CEO of the Taiwanese contract electronics giant Foxconn, the company has nearly reached an agreement to take over struggling electronics manufacturer Sharp in one of the biggest foreign acquisitions of a Japanese company. Foxconn’s offer is worth around $5.5 billion, more than double that offered by another Japanese company, which Sharp was said to be favoring prior to this week. The ailing Sharp was once an industry leader in producing display panels and is a well-known corporate name in Japan, but recently has suffered significant losses and has been bailed out twice by lenders in the past four years. With the news that Mr. Gou had met with Sharp executives, the company’s stock jumped more than 25 percent on the Tokyo Stock Exchange over the past few days. One source called the takeover a “gamble,” as Sharp’s debts will become major liabilities if Mr. Gou cannot turn the company around. At the same time, the planned purchase is a step forward for Abenomics, which aims to double 2012-level inward Foreign Direct Investment stock by 2020. 5. Marshall Islands prepares to sue nuclear powers over arms race. The International Court of Justice announced that in March it will begin hearings to determine whether it can accept cases brought by the Marshall Islands against Pakistan, India, and the United Kingdom regarding their nuclear weapons. The hearing for the United Kingdom will focus on “preliminary objections” raised, while the hearings for the South Asian states will cover whether the court has jurisdiction to hear the cases. Later, it will be determined whether the cases can proceed. The Marshall Islands, a Pacific state with a population of just 55,000, was the site of U.S. testing of sixty-seven nuclear weapons including hydrogen bombs at Bikini Atoll, which had lasting environmental and cultural repercussions. This legacy imparted a keen awareness of the impact of nuclear weapons in the Marshall Islands. In 2014, the nation filed suits against nine nations regarding failure to comply with the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). The case filed against the United States in the U.S. District Court of San Francisco was dismissed, although the Marshall Islands subsequently appealed. India and Pakistan are not party to the NPT, but have obligations under international law and recognize the authority of the International Court of Justice. Bonus: North Korea sends garbage-filled balloons to South Korea amidst propaganda spat. North Korea floated balloons reportedly filled with feces, cigarette butts, and leaflets to South Korea in the latest propaganda spat between the two countries. Since January 6, when North Korea conducted its fourth underground nuclear test, tensions on the Korean Peninsula have heightened despite an inter-Korean deal in August of last year when South Korea agreed to halt the usage of loudspeakers for broadcasting propaganda across the border. The South reacted to the nuclear test by blasting Korean pop music across the Demilitarized Zone, as well as pushing for tougher sanctions against North Korea in the U.N. Around 100,000 leaflets included with the balloons denounced South Korean President Park Geun-hye as “political filth.” The balloons were intended to explode and scatter the materials via timers and small explosive devices, but some of them failed to function as planned.

This post was coauthored with Brad Glosserman, executive director at Pacific Forum CSIS. The cycle of negativity surrounding Japan-South Korea relations since the Abe-Park era began in early 2013 has at times eclipsed North Korea as a source of angst among observers of Northeast Asia. Even the modest improvements that accompanied commemorations of the fiftieth anniversary of diplomatic normalization in June 2015 were tinged by frustration over the two governments’ failure to move forward on the comfort woman issue. The main problem involved the acknowledgement of Japanese responsibility for the coercion of girls and women to provide sexual services to the military in imperial Japan, and this disagreement spilled over into other issues in the two countries’ relationship. It was especially surprising, then, that Abe Shinzo and Park Geun-hye cut a deal on December 28 to resolve the comfort woman issue. The agreement reached followed more than a dozen rounds of consultations between the two governments, a process that unfolded under intense media scrutiny and ever-growing suspicion of the other side’s intentions. President Park made resolution of the issue a condition of “re-normalization” of relations with Japan, while Prime Minister Abe and many of his supporters appeared increasingly frustrated and fatigued by the inability of the two sides to move past this and other historical issues. In his statement regarding the comfort women agreement—one of two released simultaneously by the foreign ministers on both sides—Japanese Foreign Minister Kishida Fumio said that Abe, as the “cabinet prime minister of Japan,” extended his “heartfelt apologies and remorse to all those who suffered immeasurable pain and incurable physical and psychological wounds as comfort women.” He acknowledged that “the honor and dignity of many women were severely injured with the involvement of the Japanese military” and that, “[f]rom this perspective, the Japanese government fully realizes responsibility.” Japan will provide 1 billion yen (approximately $8.3 million) from the government budget to fully finance a foundation, run by the Korean government, to support the comfort women. The two countries agreed that the settlement is “final and irreversible” as an issue between the two governments as long as Japan faithfully follows through with its promise, and the two governments agreed to refrain from criticizing each other over the issue in the international community, including at the United Nations. South Korean Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se also said the settlement is final and irreversible as long as Japan keeps its promises. As part of the deal, the South Korean government “acknowledged the Japanese government’s concerns” over a statue erected in front of the Japanese embassy in Seoul that honors the comfort women. The commitments by both leaders are to be commended as acts of political leadership and statesmanship of the sort that we called for last year in our book, The Japan-South Korea Identity Clash. Abe, a man widely believed to harbor personal doubts about the validity of the comfort women claim, who insisted that all legal claims were settled in the 1965 agreement to normalize relations between the two counties, and who repeatedly said that Japan (and the world) should look forward rather than back, plainly acknowledged Japanese responsibility, and opened the Japanese purse to assuage some of the pain. Park is also brave in her pursuit of justice and finality between governments and to seek support of the Korean public for a solution to difficult issues that, in the personal view of many victims, can never be forgiven. A Korean Realmeter poll taken following the agreement showed that the deal was initially opposed by 51 percent of Koreans and supported by 43 percent, while Japanese polls such as a mid-January Asahi poll have shown strong support (63 percent supporting and 19 percent opposing) for the settlement in Japan. Divided Korean public opinion over the agreement places great pressure on both Japanese and Korean governments to move forward with implementation if the agreement is to be sustainable. In fact, the Park administration needs to show tangible progress on implementation to keep the issue from becoming a political football during upcoming National Assembly elections. Ironically, the Park administration will only be successful in winning public support for the deal if it receives support and cooperation from the government of Japan in two critical aspects. First, Tokyo must quickly fund the foundation as a first step. Ideally, the government of Japan would take initial steps to allocate funding for the Korean-operated foundation prior to the April Korean National Assembly elections so as to prevent the agreement from becoming a political football in that campaign. Second, the Abe administration must marginalize voices within Japan who, for their own reasons, seek to prevent the agreement from moving forward. A critical step is a zero-tolerance policy among Japanese Cabinet members and top party and government officials toward statements or acts that challenge this agreement. Yes, Japan is a democracy, and there is freedom of speech and religion, but Prime Minister Abe (and his successors) should demand full and complete compliance by anyone who accepts a senior post in his party or government. Tokyo appears to be taking this line. When conservative lawmaker Sakurada Yoshitaka, a member of the ruling LDP, said earlier in January that the comfort women “were prostitutes by occupation” and that people have been “heavily misled by propaganda work treating them as if they were victims,” he was forced to apologize for and retract the remarks. Japan could even go further by acknowledging that the comfort women statue is a valid tribute that memorializes the experience of the victims rather than merely demanding its removal. Ultimately, any evidence of foot-dragging or backsliding by the Abe administration in moving forward will only motivate those who are opposed to the agreement. In this respect, there are two immediate challenges. The first is the comfort women statue. Constructed by civil society groups, the Seoul government has limited leverage to deal with it. The statue could be forcibly removed, but the justification, legal or otherwise, would be thin. Despite the split in Korean reactions to the agreement, polls show strong public support for keeping the statue in its current location. Support will remain high unless Japan provides the Korean government with funds to establish the foundation. Any effort within Japan to reverse the sequence of actions implied in the agreement would likely to be fatal to it. Ultimately, success in dealing with the statue will depend on the second challenge—winning support for the agreement from the comfort women. This task has been made even more difficult by the way the deal was concluded. Understandably, negotiations were conducted in secret. But in doing so, the most important constituency, the comfort women themselves, was blindsided by the announcement of the agreement. They had no input into the process and have complained about being victimized once again. The challenge of outreach to the comfort women has been made worse by the fact that South Korea’s Ministry of Government Administration and Home Affairs was the primary point of contact for the comfort women within the government, but was not included in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Blue House-led negotiations with Japan. The Park administration must do its best to win over the comfort women while building broad public support for reconciliation with Japan. The best way to do this would be for those women to be deeply engaged in the process of establishing the new foundation; it must be seen as theirs, rather than an instrument of the Korean government. In reality, there is a limit to what governments can do, since confession and repentance, as matters of the human heart, cannot be resolved irreversibly or with finality by governments. Scott Snyder and Brad Glosserman are coauthors of The Japan-South Korea Identity Clash: East Asian Security and the United States. This article has been abridged from a longer analysis published in The Diplomat. The views presented in this piece are their own and do not represent those of the institutions with which they are affiliated.

Rachel Brown, Lincoln Davidson, Gabriel Walker, and James West look at five stories from Asia this week. 1. Malaysian prime minister evades corruption charges. Malaysia’s attorney general announced Tuesday that Prime Minister Najib Razak did not commit a crime in accepting a $680 million donation from the Saudi royal family in 2013. Najib has been under investigation for corruption since July, when investigative journalists unearthed documents alleging the prime minister had taken $680 million from a state development fund he had created. The attorney general, who was appointed by the prime minister when his predecessor was fired weeks after the scandal broke, said that Najib returned $620 million of the donated funds. It is not clear how the $60 million that was not returned was used. Najib applauded the end of the investigation, which he called an “unnecessary distraction,” but Malaysian corruption authorities have called for a review of the attorney general’s decision. Even if ultimately cleared of the charges, Najib’s public image may be irrevocably tarnished by the allegations, as well as his government’s attempts to increase Internet censorship and arrest opposition critics. 2. Taliban attacks power grid as China urges peace talks. On Tuesday, after Afghan security forces launched an expanded operation in northern Baghlan province, the Taliban sabotaged a major power line in an attack that destroyed one electricity transmission tower and damaged two others, briefly cutting off a portion of electricity supplied from Uzbekistan to Kabul. Afghanistan imports nearly three-quarters of its electricity, with the majority of power to Kabul coming from Uzbekistan; the national power company was able to provide seventy-five megawatts of backup electricity as security forces worked to de-mine the area so the towers could be repaired. Also on Tuesday, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs released a statement urging both governments in Afghanistan and Pakistan to restart peace talks with the Taliban, affirming their commitment to facilitating talks that were derailed last summer. China has joined Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the United States in attempting to formalize a process through which the Afghan government can enter negotiations with the Taliban; the newly formed Quadrilateral Coordination Group will meet for a third time in early February in Islamabad. Finally, on Wednesday the Pentagon nominated Army Lt. Gen. John Nicholson to replace Gen. John Campbell as the top U.S. and allied commander in Afghanistan. At a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing, Gen. Nicholson urged caution against withdrawing troops too soon amid the deteriorating security situation across the country. 3. China indicts Canadian charged with espionage. Kevin Garratt, a Canadian citizen who formerly operated a coffee shop in the Sino-Korean border city of Dandong, Liaoning province, has been indicted on charges of spying and stealing state secrets after a year and a half in prison. Garratt and his wife, Julia Garratt, were first detained in August 2014 and were barred access to lawyers for months. While Julia Garratt was released in February 2015, authorities have prohibited her from leaving China. Another foreigner, Swedish human rights activist Peter Dahlin, was expelled from China this week after making a confession on state television that he had “caused harm to the Chinese government [and] hurt the feelings of the Chinese people.” 4. Japanese minister resigns after bribery accusation. Akira Amari, a top economics minister in the Shinzo Abe administration, stepped down after a Japanese magazine alleged that he and his staff had accepted bribes of at least $100,000 from a construction company. Although Mr. Amari denied pocketing the money, and claimed it was a legitimate political donation, he still resigned in order to take responsibility for his staff and to avoid a politically destabilizing scandal. Mr. Amari was in charge of carrying out Prime Minister Abe’s domestic economic revitalization plan and was also Japan’s lead negotiator on the Trans-Pacific Partnership, so there is some question over who will defend the legislation in parliament, since it has not been approved yet, now that he is gone. In addition to Mr. Amari, three other ministers have previously resigned from the Abe administration because of political funding scandals. A former environment minister, Nobuteru Ishihara, has already been chosen to fill Mr. Amari’s empty post, and Mr. Amari plans to continue serving as a member in the lower house of parliament. 5. China deepens footprint in Iran. Chinese President Xi Jinping, as part of a tour of the Middle East last week, was the first foreign leader to visit Iran after sanctions were lifted. While the region remained tense following the rupture in diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Araba, the focus of Xi’s trip was largely economic. Xi and Iranian leaders committed to deepening economic cooperation over the next twenty-five years, aiming to expand the value of their countries’ trade to $600 billion. China has been Iran’s largest trading partner over the past six years, and the two nations did over $50 billion in trade in 2014. China’s economic clout in Iran grew significantly while Western sanctions were in place, and China plays a role in a number of major construction projects including Tehran’s metro system and the Niyash Tunnel. The two nations also agreed to a military and security strategic partnership, which includes more collaboration to address terrorism and the expansion of military exchanges. Additionally, China backs Iran’s application to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as a full member. Xi also visited Iran’s regional rival, Saudi Arabia, and the Chinese government emphasizes a balanced foreign policy in the region. China has recently become more actively engaged in the Middle East as demonstrated by a new Arab Policy Paper published in mid-January. The state-run media service Xinhua has emphasized the contributions that China could make to the Middle East, including that “the wisdom of China, which is trusted by Middle Eastern countries as a non-interfering country, could serve as an effective remedy for problems and herald a brighter future for the region.” Bonus: People’s Daily declares war on George Soros’s purported war declaration. The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) top newspaper took major offense at remarks about the Chinese economy the investor made at the World Economic Forum last week. Soros said that a hard landing was “practically unavoidable” for the Chinese economy; state media fired back that Soros “would inevitably pay a heavy price” for shorting China. On January 26, an article featured on the front page of the international edition of People’s Daily, titled “Declaring war on Chinese currency? Haha,” said that Soros had “openly ‘declared war’ on China” at Davos, but “there can be no doubt that his challenge to the RMB and HKD will fail.” The daily doth protest too much, methinks.

Sungtae “Jacky” Park is research associate for Korea studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and is the author of The Korean Pivot and the Return of Great Power Politics in Northeast Asia. On January 5, North Korea conducted its fourth nuclear test. Pyongyang also conducted another submarine-launched ballistic missile ejection test in December of last year, demonstrating that the Kim regime is intent on developing deliverable nuclear weapons that can hit the United States. Yet, China, which can do the most to clamp down on North Korea, is still refusing to do so, despite the deterioration in Beijing-Pyongyang relations over the last few years. To be sure, China began to implement UN sanctions after North Korea’s third nuclear test in February 2013—except that Chinese trade with North Korea grew by 10.4 percent in 2013 and by 4.9 percent in 2014. In 2015, China-North Korea trade decreased by 15 percent, but the decline was due to the slowdown in China’s economy. In fact, Beijing has been working to improve relations with Pyongyang since late 2014 and early 2015. Instead of pressuring the Kim regime, China wants to restore a “normal,” and perhaps even still “special,” relationship with North Korea, although the upward trajectory in Beijing-Pyongyang relations will be bumpy (as demonstrated by the recent Moranbong incident and the nuclear test). While China’s shifting position on North Korea is disappointing, Seoul now has every reason to discuss the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system (THAAD) openly at the senior official level with the United States. Seoul also has reason to present an ultimatum to Beijing: Clamp down and remove the North Korean nuclear and missile threats by any means necessary, or South Korea will exercise its sovereign right to deploy the missile defense system in response to the growing danger posed by the Kim regime. Read more in the National Interest...

Rachel Brown, Lincoln Davidson, Ariella Rotenberg, Ayumi Teraoka, Gabriel Walker, and James West look at five stories from Asia this week. 1. Terrorists kill twenty-one in attack on Pakistani university. On Wednesday, gunmen stormed Bacha Khan University in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s Charsadda district, killing twenty-one people and injuring dozens more. Four attackers were killed in an hours-long gun battle with security guards, local police, and the army in the attempt to secure the campus. A Pakistani Taliban (TTP) faction led by Umar Mansoor—the alleged mastermind of the December 2014 attack on the Army Public School in Peshawar that killed more than 140 people—claimed responsibility for the attack. However, an official spokesman for TTP chief Mullah Fazlullah later issued a statement denying any TTP involvement. Umar Mansoor on Friday released a video again claiming the attack and vowing more attacks on schools in the future. The attack threatens to again heighten tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan—just as the two countries are attempting to restart peace talks with the Afghan Taliban—as Pakistani security officials shared evidence with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and U.S. commander John Campbell on Friday that the attack was planned and directed from Afghanistan. 2. Myanmar frees some political prisoners and arrests others. On Friday, a spokesman for the Myanmar government announced that a total of 102 prisoners, including more than fifty serving for political offenses, would be released from jail. Before this week, more than five hundred political prisoners were serving time in Burmese prisons, including many dissidents sentenced during the country’s junta rule and over sixty students jailed and awaiting trial for a peaceful demonstration last March. Earlier this week, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with President Thein Sein and urged him to free all remaining political prisoners before the new National League for Democracy government forms this year. But although the release is a positive step forward for the burgeoning democracy, not everything was well and good for outspoken citizens of Myanmar this week: on Friday an activist was jailed for posting a picture online that mocked the military, and a few days before a former Saffron Revolution leader, who has been re-arrested multiple times since his release in 2012, was detained on alleged immigration charges. 3. Singapore arrests twenty-seven “radicalized” laborers. Twenty-six Bangladeshi construction workers were deported from Singapore following their arrest for supporting violent Islamist ideology and preparing to conduct attacks at home. One worker remained under arrest in Singapore, as he had attempted to flee the country upon hearing of the detention of others in the group. The workers were arrested under Singapore’s Internal Security Act. According to Singapore’s Ministry of Home Affairs, certain members had studied pamphlets on assassination methods and held weekly meetings at which extremist-affiliated materials were circulated. Following the arrests, Singaporean officials posted messages on Facebook emphasizing the need not to let the recent incident harm religious and racial relations. The Bangladeshi High Commissioner to Singapore identified the arrested men as affiliated with the Ansarullah Bangla Team, an Islamic extremist group banned in Bangladesh, but the men have not been linked to foreign organizations. Twelve of the workers were subsequently released in Bangladesh as no evidence was found against them. 4. United States considers tighter sanctions on North Korea. The United States is considering tighter sanctions on North Korea due to a pattern of threatening behavior, highlighted by their most recent nuclear test on January 6. Tighter sanctions on the part of the United States could, however, upset Beijing, who the United States believes has not been tough enough on North Korea. For years, Washington has urged Beijing to use economic influence on North Korea to halt its nuclear program; China has been reluctant to do so in fear of making North Korea more aggressive, or of collapsing the country’s government. A high-ranking U.S. diplomat, speaking about the potential new sanctions, said “everything is on the table,” including an agreement with South Korea to deploy a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or Thaad, missile system in South Korea to better defend against a North Korean threat. The United States is also considering secondary sanctions—similar to those recently used on Iran—that would target third-party countries doing business with North Korea. China sees actions such as Thaad and secondary sanctions on the part of the United States as threatening China’s national security and economic stability, respectively. China does condemn North Korean nuclear tests, but also places most of the blame on the United States, not Pyongyang, for North Korea’s pursuit of nuclear capabilities. 5. DPP wins in a landslide. Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) dominated at the polls last week, with party chair Tsai Ing-wen winning the presidency with 56.1 percent of the vote and the DPP securing 68 of the 113 seats in the Legislative Yuan. The current ruling party, the Kuomintang (KMT), captured only thirty-five seats, putting it in the minority for the first time in the history of the Republic of China (Taiwan’s official name). The high margin of the DPP’s victory in the at-large representative vote—44.1 percent to the KMT’s 26.9 percent—can be seen as both a rebuke to the last several years of KMT President Ma Ying-jeou’s administration and a mandate for Tsai as she comes into office. International responses to the election have been positive, noting the continuing consolidation of Taiwan’s democratic institutions and the progress the island has made—except across the Taiwan Strait, where Chinese officials reminded the world that what happens in Taiwan is part of China’s “internal affairs.” Bonus: French fries get a face-lift in Japan. McDonald’s Japan announced on Monday that it will release a new menu item next week, the “McChoco Potato”—french fries covered with both “coco” and white chocolate.  “The combination creates a wonderful salty and sweet harmonious taste,” says the press release. McDonald’s Japan, which operates the second-most restaurant locations of the chain outside of the United States, has suffered from a record net loss of 29.28 billion yen (around $245 million) from January to September 2015. Can the new invention help save the company?

Ayumi Teraoka is research associate for Japan studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Taiwan’s presidential and Legislative Yuan elections on Saturday were closely monitored in Japan, where deep historical, cultural, and social ties with Taiwan remain. Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) released its official statement congratulating Tsai Ing-wen on her victory and assuring her that the Abe government would work toward “further deepening cooperation” with Taiwan. Japan’s strategic opportunities with Taiwan lie in further economic cooperation, and Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga’s statement of support this Monday for Taiwan’s entry into the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a step in a welcome direction for Tokyo-Taipei relations in 2016 and beyond. Interest in deepening Japan-Taiwan ties is mutual. During the run-up to her victory, Tsai visited Japan despite anticipated protest from Beijing to strengthen economic ties and in particular to seek Tokyo’s support for her nation’s participation in the TPP. During this October visit, she met with members of a bipartisan Japan-Taiwan Diet caucus and with the leadership of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Rumor has it she even met with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who had cultivated ties with Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) when he visited Taiwan in 2011 and 2012 while his party was out of power. Abe’s brother, Nobuo Kishi, also leads another pro-Taiwan group in the Diet, and Tsai visited the Yamaguchi districts of both, a gesture designed to highlight her personal ties to the Abe family. Despite the lack of formal diplomatic ties, polls indicate that Japan continues to be the most favored country in Taiwan, and in 2011, 67 percent of the Japanese people also said they feel close to Taiwan. On the economic front, Japan is Taiwan’s second largest trading partner while Taiwan is Japan’s fifth largest. Despite its relatively small population (twenty-three million), the number of Taiwanese visitors to Japan each year is the third largest, following South Korea and China. These grassroots ties were amply reflected in the Taiwanese response to the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. Donations reached a total of 2.92 billion yen ($31.3 million), making Taiwan the second largest donor of relief funds in the world after the United States. Japan and Taiwan have not been spared from the difficult historical issues and territorial disputes that trouble Tokyo’s relations with Beijing and Seoul, however. Taipei also claims the islands in the East China Sea that Beijing and Tokyo have clashed over—the islands Taiwanese refer to as the Diaoyutai—and there is lingering resentment in Taiwan over Imperial Japan’s wartime treatment of Taiwanese women who were forced to work in military brothels. Nonetheless, Taipei and Tokyo have found common strategic interests that outweigh some of these residual wounds of the past. In April 2013, under President Ma Ying-jeou’s East China Sea Peace Initiative, Japan and Taiwan finally concluded a long sought-after fisheries agreement that allowed Taiwanese fishermen to operate in a part of what Japan regards as its Economic Exclusive Zone and established a dispute resolution framework for the fishermen. Frustration remains among Japanese fishermen over the fishing practices of Taiwanese trawlers, but this agreement has set a positive precedent for managing the difficult territorial disputes in the East China Sea. Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou (R) greets former Japan prime minister Shinzo Abe at the presidential office in Taipei October 31, 2010 (REUTERS/Sun Chung-ta). Traditionally, the LDP leadership’s ties with Taipei have largely been forged through the Kuomintang (the Nationalist Party). Abe’s ability to work with Ma on the East China Sea early on in his tenure was in large part due to these longstanding party ties. In contrast, the DPP has had little contact with Japan’s conservatives. Moreover, the DPP’s dreams of declaring independence from China in the mid-2000s as represented in former President Chen Shui-bian’s call for a referendum for Taiwan’s participation in the United Nations, rattled many in Tokyo as tensions between Taiwan and Beijing escalated. Yet today, Tsai and Abe are attempting to forge a new political partnership as regional concern over Chinese behavior mounts. Tokyo’s recent tensions with Beijing have yet again prompted some Diet members to advocate for a deeper relationship with their southern, democratic neighbor by establishing a Japanese version of the Taiwan Relations Act. Scholars also call for elevating Japan’s relations with Taiwan to reflect the changing nature of cross-strait relations represented in the first-ever summit between the heads of China and Taiwan last November. Japan cannot simply sit back and “expect” the issues surrounding Taiwan to be “resolved peacefully by direct dialogue between the concerned parties,” as outlined in the MOFA statement. Rather, the Abe cabinet, as part of its “proactive contribution to peace,” should see what it can do to best ensure such an outcome. Japan’s direct support for Taiwan’s security, as implied in the concept of Japan’s Taiwan Relations Act, however, may do little more than imperil Tokyo’s relations with Beijing while creating unnecessary tensions between Taipei and Beijing. Instead, Japan should pursue its strategic interests through further economic cooperation with Taiwan. An obvious first step would be to support Taiwan’s participation in the TPP, as Tsai advocated during her time in Japan. Suga’s statement on Monday was a much-welcomed step in this regard, and Japan must work with the United States and other parties of the TPP to garner support and assistance for Taiwan’s participation. The TPP is a high-standard free trade initiative that should be open to all member economies of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum (APEC), which includes “Chinese Taipei.” Ensuring an economically vibrant Taiwan and supporting regional economic integration would not only strengthen ties with Taiwan, but also demonstrate Japan’s willingness to work with those in the Asia-Pacific region who have a demonstrated commitment to peaceful dispute resolution.

Rachel Brown, Lincoln Davidson, Ariella Rotenberg, Gabriel Walker, and James West look at five stories from Asia this week. 1. Taiwan takes to the polls. Tomorrow, the island’s citizens will choose between the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) Tsai Ing-wen, the Kuomintang’s (KMT) Eric Chu, and the People First Party’s (PFP) James Soong when they turn out to vote for a new president. Tsai, who lost the 2012 presidential race to incumbent KMT president Ma Ying-jeou, is expected to win with a significant margin this year. That would make Tsai, a noted cat-lover, the first woman to hold the office and the second non-KMT president. Legislative elections are less certain, however. All 113 seats in the Legislative Yuan are up for grabs, but it is not clear that either major party (the KMT and DPP) will secure a majority. KMT candidates have been hurt by the deep unpopularity of President Ma and the party’s loss of its monopoly on the public narrative of Taiwan’s relationship to China. But the DPP may also be prevented from securing a majority by small, issue-focused third-party candidates who have sprung up in the wake of the 2014 Sunflower Movement. However, the DPP may come close enough to a majority that they can form a coalition with these “third force” parties. For commentary as the polls open, see this list of Twitter’s top voices on Taiwan. 2. Diplomats meet to restart Taliban peace talks. Officials from Afghanistan, Pakistan, China, and the United States met in Islamabad on Monday to discuss a “road map” for reviving stalled peace talks with the Afghan Taliban. Direct talks between the Afghan government and Taliban representatives, facilitated by Pakistan and observed by Chinese and U.S. officials, collapsed after only one meeting in July 2015. Afghan officials said beforehand they expected a list from Pakistan of Taliban willing to negotiate with Kabul, and are “seeking unprecedented cooperation” from the Pakistani military in convincing Taliban factions to come to the table, and more importantly, to crack down on those factions that do not. The day-long meeting ended with a statement that officials would reconvene in Kabul next week. This week’s meeting comes after a serious deterioration of security across Afghanistan in the past year, with the Taliban now controlling dozens of districts across the country and threatening major population centers—including the brief takeover of Kunduz last fall and ongoing battles around key districts in Helmand province. Separately, the Islamic State claimed responsibility for an attack near the Pakistani consulate in Jalalabad on Wednesday that killed at least seven Afghan security forces. Support for the Islamic State’s Afghanistan branch has grown as Taliban factions, disaffected by the new Taliban leadership, have splintered and defected to the group. 3. Park presses China for heavier hand with North Korea. Following North Korea’s test of an alleged hydrogen bomb last week, South Korean President Park Geun-hye addressed China’s relationship with North Korea during an annual press conference, stating, “I think China is fully aware that if such strong will is not matched by necessary measures, we cannot prevent fifth and sixth nuclear tests by the North or guarantee real peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula.” She also noted that “the best partners are those who will hold your hand in difficult times.” China is South Korea’s largest trading partner and Park has made improving ties with China a key part of her foreign policy. It was hoped that the warming of relations might increase China’s willingness to pressure its ally North Korea, but the success of this approach remains in question. Although the Chinese foreign ministry has also repeatedly stated its opposition to North Korea’s nuclear program, the Chinese official response thus far has been to emphasize the need to resume disarmament talks and address the issue through continued dialogue rather than impose new sanctions. Furthermore, when the South Korean defense minister attempted to use a recently established hotline with China after last week’s test, his call did not receive a response. On Thursday, China and South Korea announced that the nuclear test would be discussed during annual working-level military talks between the two nations to be held Friday. 4. Islamic State claims deadly Jakarta attack. On Thursday morning, suicide bombers and armed militants attacked a busy street in Jakarta, killing at least two and injuring more than twenty. Five assailants also lay dead in the aftermath. The Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack, raising fears that the group was expanding its reach through Southeast Asia, including Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand. The alleged organizer, Bahrun Naim, is a leader of a Southeast Asia–based military group under the Islamic State and purportedly runs a blog with terrorist “teachings” written in Indonesian. Although this is the first major terrorist attack in Indonesia, the country with the world’s largest Muslim population, since a hotel bombing in 2009, arrests of suspects have spiked recently with at least sixteen over the past month. On Friday, Indonesia police killed one suspected militant, arrested two more, and were investigating the networks involved in planning this week’s attacks. 5. Japan submits bid for Australian submarine contract. Japanese, German, and French companies are vying to win an Australian defense contract to build as many as twelve submarines, which could be worth up to $36 billion. Japan’s Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd., and Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Ltd., have proposed the world’s first lithium ion battery–powered submarines. Japan has indicated that they see their chances as very good for winning the contract over France and Germany. Furthermore, the Japanese government has argued that their success in this contest would also serve to bring the two countries closer together and help ensure maritime security in the Asia-Pacific. On the other hand, Australia may be concerned that a closer relationship with Japan may risk angering China, its largest trading partner. Although the United States has not taken an official position, U.S. government officials have said privately that a strengthened relationship between Australia and Japan would be good for U.S. strategic interests in the region. Bonus: Grindr hooks up with Chinese comrade. This week, the Chinese gaming company Beijing Kunlun Tech, the developer of popular mobile titles like “Space Hunter” and “Sword of Soul,” paid nearly $100 million for a 60 percent stake in Grindr, a geosocial gay social networking app. CEO Joel Simkhai wrote that the investment would allow for “business as usual” with “a renewed sense of purpose and additional resources.” Besides serving as an additional source of revenue for Kunlun Tech, Grindr may also be used to direct users to the company’s games. Although Grindr does have a Chinese-language version of its app, it has faced competition in China from Blued, a Chinese-made dating app for gay men that had fifteen million users, mainly in China, in 2014—possibly more than twice the number of Grindr’s users worldwide. Kunlun Tech’s investment and the popularity of Blued are signs of changing attitudes towards homosexuality in China; it was illegal in the country until 1997, and the Chinese Psychiatric Association officially classified it as a psychiatric disorder until 2001.