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Introduction
Over the last several decades, governments have collectively pledged to slow global warming. But despite intensified diplomacy, the world is already facing the consequences of climate…
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Steel Productivity has Plummeted Since Trump’s 2018 Tariffs
Studies have shown that tariffs depress productivity in protected industries. U.S. steel is a case in point.
Dollar Undervalued on CFR Mini Mac Index
The dollar is slightly undervalued on CFR’s Mini Mac Index. Will Trump’s tariff policies send it soaring?
The Growth Hit From Trump’s Tariffs
Trump’s tariffs will hit U.S. growth. We estimate the impact over time.
Where Will Trump’s Tariff Revenues Go? His First Term Provides a Big Clue.
Nearly all of Trump’s first-term China tariff revenue went to compensate American farmers facing retaliatory tariffs. Expect a replay in 2025.
Why the Fed Should Stop Forward Guidance
If the Fed can’t predict the future path of the economy, it shouldn’t be predicting its own policy decisions.
Soaring Abuse of “National Security” Exceptions Has Wrecked the Multilateral Trading System
Since 2019, there has been a massive surge in “National Security” notifications at the WTO. Many of these are covers for rank protectionism.
How Trump Can Control the Fed
Could President-elect Donald Trump end Fed independence on monetary policy? A legislative anomaly gives him a way.
China’s Central Bank is Becoming the Developing World’s “Payday Lender”
With the developing world’s growing use of costly and opaque “payday loans” from China’s central bank, the IMF and World Bank need to demand far greater transparency from Beijing.
Will a Worker Shortage Kill the U.S. Manufacturing Boom?
The United States is witnessing a boom in manufacturing investment, stimulated by massive government subsidies, but the skilled workforce necessary to support it is severely lacking.
Aging Will Hit China’s Economy Far Harder Than Is Recognized
Aging is not only shrinking the labor force but damaging productivity—and therefore per capita GDP growth.
Big Macs Show Dollar Hugely Overvalued, But “Mini Macs” Beg to Differ.
Whereas the Economist magazine’s Big Mac currency index says the dollar is hugely overvalued, CFR’s “Mini Mac” index finds it slightly undervalued.
