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Brad Setser tracks cross-border flows, with a bit of macroeconomics thrown in.

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Chinese State Investors Do Not Seem to Profit From Higher U.S. Interest Rates

by Brad W. Setser September 2, 2024

Given the size and composition of its external lending, China should be clearing far more interest income on its reserves and policy lending than SAFE reports. Read More

China
The IMF’s Latest External Sector Report Misses the Mark
The IMF should take a mulligan on the 2024 External Sector Report. The imbalance in China’s goods trade is expanding, not receding. It is too big for the IMF to ignore.
Blog Post by Brad W. Setser August 26, 2024 Follow the Money
China
China’s Imaginary Trade Data
China has a new way of calculating its good surplus in its formal balance of payments data. It is a deeply misleading. It also explains the apparent fall in the current account account surplus.
Blog Post by Brad W. Setser August 14, 2024 Follow the Money
Economics
What to Do About the Liquidity Difficulties in Low-Income Countries
The IMF, while recognizing the liquidity challenges sure to be faced by several indebted countries in the coming years, needs to offer a solution that both widens its scope and deepens its analysis.
Blog Post by Brad W. Setser August 13, 2024 Follow the Money
  • Economics
    The Spotty International Tax Record of Big U.S. Technology Companies
    Many big technology firms continue to book large offshore profits in low tax jurisdictions, particularly Ireland and Singapore.
    Blog Post by Brad W. Setser July 28, 2024 Follow the Money
  • Economics
    American Pharmaceutical Companies Aren’t Paying Any Tax in the United States
    The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) has substantially reduced the domestic tax paid by American pharmaceutical giants. 
    Blog Post by Brad W. Setser and Michael Weilandt July 22, 2024 Follow the Money
  • Economics
    Sri Lanka’s Bond Deal Should Not Set a Precedent
    Rather than reducing the risk of future debt trouble, Sri Lanka’s macro-linked bonds set up the risk that Sri Lanka will fall back into debt trouble in 2029 or 2030.
    Blog Post by Brad W. Setser July 16, 2024 Follow the Money
  • Climate Change
    Mobilizing Clean Energy Financing through the Multilateral Development Banks
    A new paper published by the MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEPR) puts forward an ambitious agenda for innovation in clean energy finance.
    Blog Post by Brad W. Setser , Tess Turner and Michael Weilandt June 24, 2024 Follow the Money
  • Russia
    Estimating Future Interest Income From Russia’s Frozen Reserves
    Outright seizure of the Russian Central Bank’s hundreds of billions in frozen assets is currently off the table, but it is still possible to obtain large sums for Ukraine from the interest income on these assets.
    Blog Post by Brad W. Setser and Michael Weilandt June 11, 2024 Follow the Money
  • China
    Power and Financial Interdependence
    My new paper for the Geoeconomics and Geofinance Initiative of the Institute Français des Relations Internationals’ (IFRI) explores the history of the Sino-American financial relationship.
    Blog Post by Brad W. Setser May 15, 2024 Follow the Money
  • China
    China’s New Currency Peg
    The peg that shall not be named, and all the trouble that creates.
    Blog Post by Brad W. Setser April 12, 2024 Follow the Money