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Introduction
Over the last several decades, governments have collectively pledged to slow global warming. But despite intensified diplomacy, the world is already facing the consequences of climate…
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The Evolution of Global Trade in 2024
A rebound in U.S. consumer imports fueled global trade, while Chinese import growth diverged from China’s export growth. Importers imported more, exporters exported more, and imbalances expanded.
American Pharmaceutical Companies Still Aren’t Paying Tax in the U.S.
The 2024 10-K reports of America’s largest pharmaceutical companies show that they continue to avoid paying much, if any, U.S. corporate income tax.
The iPhone, the IMF, and China’s Balance of Payments
The iPhone is priced correctly in China’s customs trade data. A seemingly banal observation that leads to big questions about China’s post 2022 balance of payments methodology.
Xi is Making the World Pay for China’s Mistakes
My recent essay in the New York Times argues that China’s rising surplus in manufactures is a real threat to the global economy.
China’s FX Playbook: December 2024
This is this first blog in an ongoing series which will provide a monthly look at the various indicators of China’s foreign exchange management.
China’s Stunning 2024 Export Growth
Chinese exports are growing much faster in volume than in dollar terms. Europe is losing out.
Will China Take Over the Global Auto Industry?
China’s electric vehicle capacity will soon match total Chinese domestic auto demand, and total Chinese auto production capacity is already over half of total global auto demand.
Why Did China’s Current Account Surplus Surge in the Third Quarter?
An old school, “make blogging great again” style post. The rise in the current account surplus might be linked to the “carry” unwind in the third quarter.
The U.S. Income Balance Puzzle
The long-standing surplus in the U.S. investment income account, often cited as evidence of “exorbitant privilege,” is receding. It already goes away without the income from profit-shifting by U.S. multinationals.
The Surprising Resilience of Globalization: An Examination of Claims of Economic Fragmentation
In my new paper published by the Aspen Economic Strategy Group, I highlight the persistence of unhealthy globalization and lay out some proposals for a more sustainable regime.
The iPhone's Outsized Impact on Debates about China's Trade Data
China’s main explanation for the $300 billion plus gap between its customs surplus and its goods surplus in the balance of payments is the Apple iPhone.
