Economics

Emerging Markets

  • Lebanon
    Lebanon’s Imminent Financial Crisis
    Lebanon is in a deep financial hole, with no obvious way out.
  • India
    Tracking Trade Tensions With India
    President Donald J. Trump heads to India at the end of the month— this week the White House formally announced the trip for February 24 and 25, with Ahmedabad, Gujarat, and New Delhi the main stops. Trump will help inaugurate a new stadium in Ahmedabad along with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in a Houston-style event dubbed #KemChhoTrump (“How are you Trump?” in Gujarati). For weeks, press speculation has picked up where it left off last fall regarding progress toward some kind of a trade package, albeit still undetermined. India has one of the world’s largest economies and is a top ten trading partner for the United States—in fact, it’s number eight in goods and services, which means that the U.S.-India trade volume is now larger than that between the United States and France. But a growth in trade tensions has accompanied the growth in trade ties. In advance of the president’s visit, we put together a guide to some of the U.S.-India trade tensions that have persisted despite efforts to overcome them. Some of these issues are far more complex than they appear at first blush. The “Field Guide to U.S.-India Trade Tensions” provides references and links to primary documents for those interested—policy documents like U.S. National Trade Estimates, the Special 301 report, notices for hearings on the Generalized System of Preferences, Indian customs notifications, filings with the World Trade Organization, and others. Take a look here: A Field Guide to U.S.-India Trade Tensions Thank you to Erik Fliegauf for his assistance on the field guide, especially on the data and graphics.
  • India
    A Field Guide to U.S.-India Trade Tensions
    India has become an important trading partner for the United States over the past two decades, but the relationship has been marred by long-standing disagreements on everything from dairy products to intellectual property rights protections.
  • Nigeria
    Home to Over Half the Population, Nigeria's Cities Continue to Boom
    In an article for Bloomberg, Judd Devremont and Todd Moss highlight the rapid urbanization of Africa, arguing that the success or failure of Africa in the global economy will depend on its cities. In Nigeria, this can be seen most clearly in Lagos.  At independence in 1960, Lagos had an estimated population of 763,000; today it is about 13 million. Together with Lagos state, the population reaches 21 million. While Lagos is by far the largest city in Nigeria, security concerns, rural poverty, and hopes for greater economic opportunity are driving people to cities all over the country. In the decade between 2007 and 2017, Nigeria’s urban dwellers increased from 41 percent of the population to about 50 percent. In 2019, there were 7 cities with a population of one million or more, 80 with a population ranging between one hundred thousand and one million, and 248 with a population between ten thousand and one hundred thousand. But much of this urbanization is unplanned and chaotic. According to a World Bank report about African cities, "Africa’s cities feel crowded precisely because they are not dense with economic activity, infrastructure, or housing and commercial structures." They lack "formal housing in reach of jobs, and without transport systems to connect people living farther away," forcing residents to "forgo services and amenities to live in cramped quarters near their work." The realities of life in Nigerian cities are hard. In Lagos, about two of every three people live in a slum. Less than 10 percent of residents have access to piped water (for those that do, it is often riddled with sediment and unsafe to drink), forcing urban households to purchase water from vendors at up to three times the normal price charged by Lagos state. Only six percent of urban households have a flushing toilet that is connected to a sewage system. But life goes on. For all its shortcomings, Lagos is the center of much of what is dynamic and vibrant about Nigeria, a point Judd and Todd stress about African cities in general. The informal economy provides employment incompletely captured by statistics. In Lagos, there are few beggars; everyone has a hustle. Vendors working the city’s ubiquitous traffic jams (“go slows”) sell everything from mops and buckets to juju materials to the complete works of Shakespeare. Others provide services, such as washing the feet of market ladies several times a day. It is the home of Nollywood, a home-grown film industry that is widely influential in Africa and spreading around the world. It is the center of Nigerian telecommunications, and cell phone use is ubiquitous. The Nigerian Communications Commission stated that Internet users in Nigeria numbered 116 million in March 2019—well over half of the country’s estimated population. The most modern of financial and other services are available to clients in the Lagos-Ibadan corridor, the capital Abuja, and sporadically elsewhere. Information technology and sophisticated financial services are starting to power the modern sectors of the economy, though not to the same extent as in South Africa or Kenya, though the economy of Lagos state is larger than that of Kenya. Hence, as Judd and Todd argue, they require attention for their enormous potential, both good and bad.
  • China
    Why China's Incomplete Macroeconomic Adjustment Makes China 2025 a Bigger Risk
    How the fragile macro-economic base of China’s external adjustment could intersect with China 2025 and generate a new "China" shock.
  • India
    The Interim Indian Budget: Jobs Are the Bigger Issue
    The Indian government released an “interim” budget today, a document designed to provide continuity for the next three months or so before the general election takes place and a newly constituted government takes office. This interim budget in many ways resembles a continuing resolution in the U.S. system, a “holdover-keep-things-running” function that typically receives almost no notice in the United States. (Unless, of course, one doesn’t pass and the government shuts down.) By contrast, the Indian media are treating this three-month interim budget just like a full-fledged budget, devoting attention to its meaning and its implications for industry, farmers, the middle class, and foreign investors. This is because the scale of the proposals in the budget suggests a roadmap for the entire year rather than a holding exercise. Should the next Indian government, once it is constituted at some point likely around late May, have a different focus, then it would be worth having a more extensive budget discussion at that time. But the question of the hour really has to be what to do about jobs. Against the backdrop of mounting bad news on the jobs front, it’s no mystery that the interim budget would offer support to farmers, tax relief to the middle class, and an opt-in pension plan for informal sector workers. These are palliative measures, however, that do not provide broader recommendations for how to address whatever is hindering job creation in the Indian economy. The much-delayed release of National Sample Survey data on unemployment led earlier this week to a data leak to Business Standard, and the information released should wake everyone up to the urgency of the problem. According to this report, the survey finds headline unemployment at an over-forty-year high of 6.1 percent.  If unemployment in India is indeed as high as the reported National Sample Survey figure—keep in mind that the nongovernmental Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy unemployment estimate for December 2018 was even higher at 7.3 percent—then all parties should focus like a laser on what they can do to solve the problem. Answering the jobs question with the best possible policy proposal requires the best available data. Here’s an example. It has been politically impossible—across parties—to implement extensive structural reforms that would allow India’s manufacturing sector to flourish, as has been the case in East and Southeast Asia, and even in Bangladesh. In Bangladesh, the ready-made garment industry has been a pathway out of poverty for around four million people, mainly women. As China moves out of the garment industry, countries like Bangladesh and Vietnam are picking up the slack, and this could be an opportunity for India as well. How well have the changes to India’s textile sector that were initiated in 2016—changes that allowed for seasonal employment and eased labor laws that disincentivized hiring more than one hundred people—helped with job creation in the industry? It has become abundantly clear that demonetization and the complexity of the Goods and Services Tax rollout hurt small businesses. So public policy ought to focus on how to improve opportunities for small businesses and help them grow, because they are engines of job creation. That means I agree with the question posed by Takshashila Institution Cofounder and Director Nitin Pai: “What is your plan to create 20 million jobs every year?” That’s the question that ought to be everyone’s top priority. My book about India’s rise on the world stage, Our Time Has Come: How India Is Making Its Place in the World, was published by Oxford University Press in January 2018. Follow me on Twitter: @AyresAlyssa. Or like me on Facebook (fb.me/ayresalyssa) or Instagram (instagr.am/ayresalyssa).
  • Sub-Saharan Africa
    Unpacking Africa’s 2019 GDP Growth Prospects
    Jennifer Spies led Facebook’s product development for the Middle East and Africa, and has over a decade of experience building products that connect communities. Prior to Facebook, she served as a foreign policy advisor for Middle Eastern economic security and worked with Google.org in Rwanda. The World Bank released its annual Global Economic Prospects [PDF] report for sub-Saharan Africa earlier this month, forecasting a GDP growth rate of 3.4 percent in sub-Saharan Africa for 2019. This is up from 2018 and represents a modest recovery from a downturn that began in 2015. But growth across the region remains uneven. Sub-Saharan Africa’s largest three economies, Nigeria, South Africa, and Angola, are predicted to grow below the regional average and will continue to disappoint investors who once hailed these markets as engines of growth. However, bright spots remain, with growth of over 6 percent in smaller, non-commodity driven markets such as Burkina Faso, Cote d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Ghana, Niger, Rwanda, Senegal, Tanzania, and Uganda.  The promise of African economic growth has tantalized investors since the early 2000s. In 2010, McKinsey released Lions on the Move, a report predicting the region would generate as much as $2.6 trillion in revenue by 2020. Around the same time, investment in emerging markets was trending, largely due to the fact that investors could find returns nearly three times greater than those to be had in Western economies. Analysts eyed sub-Saharan Africa’s future population—1.5 billion by 2025—and wondered if the region was set to replicate the rapid industrialization and exceptionally high growth rates witnessed by Southeast Asia in the eighties and nineties. Particularly for the continent’s largest economies, this has not happened.  Economic prospects for all emerging markets have been challenging in the past four years, dampened by the strengthening dollar, fluctuating commodity prices, and trade uncertainty. Even with these headwinds, the growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa is now below the average of other emerging markets. Larger commodity-driven economies—South Africa, Nigeria, Angola, and Zambia—are plagued by a combination of macro-economic headwinds and domestic problems like unemployment, political uncertainty, and corruption. Crucially, the average purchasing power has not risen in line with analysts’ hopes, meaning there has been little progress in reducing poverty, increasing worker productivity, or tapping into the promise of the region’s population boom. Slow progress towards key business needs like updating power and rail infrastructure also hurts investor confidence.  But these numbers belie enormous diversity. Ethiopia is on track to have nearly the highest GDP growth rate in the world, and a number of smaller economies like Tanzania, Kenya, Rwanda, and Ghana are growing at rates over 6 percent, a number on par or higher than China’s expected growth. These countries are also successfully attracting global capital through progressive policies aimed at diversifying their economies and growing the middle class.  The global economy is predicted to experience a deceleration in the coming years, hindered in part by trade uncertainty, rising inflation, and tightening Chinese credit, which are all likely to hurt sub-Saharan Africa’s prospects for growth. While some of these challenges will be difficult to avoid, others could be addressed domestically. Tackling corruption, investing in business infrastructure, and increasing average purchasing power through growing wages and jobs are critical to sustained economic development. It is no longer a given that the region’s largest economies are also its fastest growing or the best prospects for investors.   
  • Emerging Markets
    What’s in Store for Emerging Markets?
    Market pressure on Turkey and Argentina has abated a bit, thanks to a large IMF program that funds Argentina for another year and the apparent ability of Turkey’s banks to roll over a large share of their maturing syndicated loans.*   These two countries’ troubles over the summer sparked fears that the contagion could spread, and that foreign investors might start pulling capital from emerging markets (EMs) more broadly. One way of evaluating the risk of a reversal in capital inflows is to look at the scale of past inflows, on the theory that the scale of future outflows might be proportionate to past inflows.** It turns out that investors had been building up exposure rather quickly in 2017 and the first part of 2018. Synchronized global growth and all. The chart below shows inflows through the second quarter. Portfolio inflows into emerging economies were at secular highs in dollar terms, creating the potential for a significant reversal. In fact, for many countries, the Q2 2018 data hints that flows had started to reverse even before Turkey’s crisis intensified in August. This becomes clear if China, which is responsible for much of the recent rise in inflows, is taken out of the inflow chart. Inflows to other emerging markets look to be about $100 billion off their peak, though still well above their 2015 (oil price fall, China currency scare) lows. Another way of evaluating the risk posed by a potential reversal in portfolio flows is to compare the size of the inflows to the country’s need for financing, e.g. their current account deficit. Going into the summer, the combined deficit of the “deficit” emerging economies was rising—largely because of increased deficits in Argentina, Turkey and India. (The overall emerging market deficit isn’t as large as in 2013, largely because Brazil has remained stuck in a deep recession and isn’t currently running a significant deficit.) Obviously, this deficit is now coming down; higher frequency indicators suggest Turkey is on the edge of swinging into a sustained surplus and Argentina’s deficit is shrinking rapidly. India will be helped going forward if oil sustains its recent fall. Looking back at portfolio flows over the past decade also can help benchmark the scale of the recent pull back. Since the financial crisis, as our first chart showed, there have been three periods when inflows dropped—in 2011, 2013, and 2015. The episode in 2011 proved fairly mild because, unlike today, the pullback from emerging markets fundamentally stemmed from growing uncertainty about the euro area, which led investors to cut portfolio risk globally—they sold riskier emerging market assets and poured into safe havens. 2013 was the year of the infamous “taper tantrum,” in which the prospect of higher developed-world rates, and a stronger U.S. dollar, made investors wary of emerging markets. By this time, some emerging markets were showing signs of macroeconomic vulnerability, notable relatively large external deficits. However, the pull-back proved short-lived; once the Fed pushed back its tightening timeline, inflows resumed. The 2015 episode—the largest pullback of the last decade—is the best benchmark for real stress. The fall in oil prices hit oil exporters hard, forcing them to adjust their external balances—as we show below. Portfolio inflows were pro-cyclical; they fell along with the price of oil (thanks in part to U.S. sanctions on Russia) and then rebounded as prices rose off their lows. No doubt the Saudis’ willingness to step up their borrowing played an important role in the rebound too. The oil exporters have a larger underlying need to borrow than in the past. But the biggest swing in portfolio flows back in 2015 didn’t come from the oil exporters: it came from China. The drop in inflows into China accounted for about 40 percent of the reduction in EM inflows between Q2 and Q4 2015, as investors pulled back in the face of a falling stock market and rising currency risks. If there is a sharp pullback now, the reversal is likely to be centered around debt, rather than equities. Rising demand for emerging market debt drove the pickup in overall flows since the emerging market recovery started in 2016. But there is one critical difference: the recent inflow story is even more Sinocentric than in the past. China alone accounted for 50 percent of portfolio inflows into emerging economies in the four quarters to the middle of 2017. Actually the pickup in inflows was driven by both Argentina and China—collectively, they accounted for about two-thirds of the inflow into emerging market debt from mid 2016 to mid 2017. But there is no real doubt about what will happen to inflows into Argentina now—the IMF had to augment its program over the summer to cover the absence of private financing at an affordable price. The uncertainty is all around China. China’s economy is likely in somewhat better shape today than it was in 2014-2015. Back then, China’s policy tightening created a sharp slowdown in the real estate sector—and the yuan’s link to the dollar pulled China’s currency up at an inopportune time. We believe that growth then was far weaker than the official numbers suggest. Today, there is a risk that China’s efforts to rein in lending will slow growth more than Xi wants—and that the recent swing to policy loosening will come too late to revive the economy in 2018. But the biggest risk is clearly external: the “pause” on U.S. tariffs may not last, and if the U.S. escalates and raises its tariffs, there is a risk that the yuan could be allowed to fall further. So there is potential for a reversal of inflows into China in 2018. The buildup in investor exposure is certainly there. Chinese portfolio inflows have tripled between Q2 2017 and Q2 2018. But much of the current buildup likely came from central banks diversifying their reserves; it consequently is a bit different than the inflow into other emerging economies.*** The real risk looks to be that the current portfolio inflows into China could slow, creating a bit of additional pressure on China’s reserves—and adding to the risk that a swing in China’s yuan policy (it is still a heavily managed currency, and move in the yuan reflects a policy choice as much as market pressure) will trigger renewed pressure on other emerging economies.     *The rollover rate on Turkey’s syndicated loans—judging from Turkey’s balance of payments data—was quite low in September. But one of the big loans that was paid in September was apparently renewed in October. This should be apparent in the October data. Markets have certainly stabilized after the CBRT raised rates. **Robin Brooks of the IIF has been tracking this data as well. But I don’t think he patented the technology! I used to watch this indicator back in my days in government service, it just took a bit to replicate it without the help of a small team. ***Circumstantial evidence suggests Russia moved a substantial share of its reserves into the yuan in Q2.
  • Oil and Petroleum Products
    Emerging Market Contagion Could Hit the Oil Industry
    This is a guest post by Benjamin Silliman, research associate for Energy Security and Climate Change at the Council on Foreign Relations.  When the Trump administration announced temporary waivers to sanctions on Iran’s oil last week, officials cited concerns about global oil price spikes. The more cautious approach appears to have given oil markets a reprieve, but the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) may consider a new round of production cuts when it meets in Abu Dhabi on November 11th. Central to decision making for both U. S. leaders and OPEC ministers is a debate over the signs of distress in major emerging markets. Expectations for the price of oil in 2019 are particularly scattered with predictions ranging between $65 and $100 per barrel. The $100 camp focuses mainly on tail risks to oil supply, including disruptions involving the Iran sanctions, continuing loss of production in Venezuela, and questions over Saudi and Russian output. However, oil is also experiencing negative contagion effects from other markets, especially indicators of financial vulnerability in emerging economies. Severe currency devaluation threatens sustained oil consumption in some of the most rapidly developing markets, prompting some analysts to predict that the current downward move could become more permanent. Paradoxically, any sudden upwards movement in oil prices could stimulate their eventual collapse by pushing weakened economies over the edge. Structurally, technology and efficiency gains in the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) have been flattening oil consumption in recent years. But global oil demand has been supported by rapid growth in emerging markets. For example, China, India, Russia, Brazil, Turkey, Argentina, and South Africa are some of the largest sources of growth in the world. Together, their consumption has grown about 16% in the past five years. Figure 1 demonstrates the magnitude of growth in developing countries as compared to the OECD. Now, after years of remarkable growth, these economies are experiencing tougher times, as manifested by ongoing currency and inflationary pressure, tightening monetary policy, and U.S. inspired trade wars.   U.S. tariffs against Turkey, followed by Turkish retaliation, have stymied the flow of U.S. dollars into the Turkish economy. Without strong currencies supporting the lira, it sank nearly 40 percent against the dollar in just 8 months. But, Turkey was not the only country to see economic problems and the dollar rise affect its currency. Argentina’s peso has also fallen more than 45 percent versus the U.S. dollar in 2018 after the United States Federal Reserve raised interest rates and the country moved to dollar-defined assets. So far this year the South African rand, Russian ruble, Brazilian real, and Chinese yuan each fell more than 9 percent against the dollar. As the U.S. dollar has risen  compared to a mix of standard international currencies, oil has risen in effective price because oil is priced in dollars on the international market. Emerging market countries have been hit not only by the nominally higher price of oil, but also by lower value currency with which to purchase it. With significantly more expensive energy, some analysts are predicting a slowdown in the oil market. At a minimum, it will drive affected countries to find ways to reduce oil consumption until their currencies stabilize, hence the sentiment of slowing oil demand as we enter 2019. These seven countries mentioned above account for more than one-fifth of the world’s oil consumption. While changes to demand from currency devaluation has been small so far, rising interest rates in some of the same countries could slow new investment, thus creating concern about recessionary pressure. South Africa’s economy is already succumbing to harder economic times. Turkey’s geopolitical ally, Qatar, has attempted to mitigate a recession with a pledge of $15 billion in direct investment into Turkey’s financial markets and banks. Now all eyes are on China and India, which appear to be posting slower economic growth than expected. The global oil industry has weathered emerging market crises in the past. Thailand saw swift growth in the early 1990s owing to foreign direct investment, but then experienced a sharp economic setback when the United States raised interest rates in 1997. A shortfall of foreign currency at that time forced Thailand’s government to float the exchange rate of the baht, which dropped nearly 40% in value against the U.S. dollar to which it was once pegged. Aptly dubbed “The Asian Flu,” Thailand’s currency crisis spread to Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and eventually China and Japan. Slumping Asian currencies began to impact regional stock markets, bringing about a full-blown Asian recession and accompanying slowdowns in oil consumption. Between 1997 and 1998, Asian oil consumption fell by 1.9%, a dramatic reversal from extraordinary growth of 4.5% between 1996 and 1997. China’s oil use fell by 0.3% in 1998, a sharp reduction from its prior growth rate of 11.5%. The sudden drop in Asian demand sunk the price of oil as low as $10 a barrel. Evidence of easing oil demand growth has started to gain attention in recent months. Figure 2 shows the relatively flat to declining oil demand trends for China, India, and South Africa. Brazil’s trends have been more volatile due to worker strikes last spring that included work stoppages by truckers. Notably, oil use growth in China has moderated this year, partly due to advancements in energy efficiency and also possibly a signal that economic growth has been slower than recognized. India saw big consumption growth earlier in the year, but it has fallen off as oil prices have risen. These trends call into question the wisdom of assuming that growth in emerging markets will continue to drive oil prices into 2019-2020. All of this means that predicting oil prices for next year may be more of a dice roll than usual. Countries must walk a tightrope in terms of trade policy, monetary policy and oil production for major oil exporting countries. Any misstep could trigger further economic deterioration and that, as the announcement of the start of U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports demonstrated, is constraining choices.
  • Human Rights
    Human Rights Safeguards Take a Backseat in New Global Economics Institutions
    As states struggle to balance commercial interests with the promotion of human rights, social safeguards in trade and loan agreements—often included at the insistence of Western countries—are increasingly under threat.
  • International Finance
    Can Anyone Other than the U.S. Fund a Current Account Deficit These Days?
    Almost all oil-importing emerging economies with current account deficits are under market pressure to adjust ... 
  • Emerging Markets
    Emerging Markets Under Pressure
    Emerging markets have come under a bit of pressure recently, with the combination of the dollar’s rise and higher U.S. ten year rates serving as the trigger. The Governor of the Reserve Bank of India has—rather remarkably—even called on the U.S. Federal Reserve to slow the pace of its quantitative tightening to give emerging economies a bit of a break. (He could have equally called on the Administration to change its fiscal policy so as to reduce issuance, but the Fed is presumably a softer target.) Yet the pressure on emerging economies hasn’t been uniform (the exchange rate moves in the chart are through Wednesday, June 13th; they don't reflect Thursday's selloff). That really shouldn’t be a surprise. Emerging economies are more different than they are the same. With the help of Benjamin Della Rocca, a research analyst at the Council on Foreign Relations, I split emerging economies into three main groupings: Oil importing economies with current account deficits Oil importing economies with significant current account surpluses (a group consisting of emerging Asian economies) And oil-exporting economies It turns out that splitting Russia out from the oil exporting economies makes for a better picture. The initial Rusal sanctions were actually quite significant (at least before Rusal got a bit of a reprieve).   And, well, Mexico is a bit of a conundrum, as it exports (a bit) of crude but turns into a net importer if you add in product and natural gas.     But there is clearly a divide between oil importers with surpluses (basically, most of East Asia) and oil importers with deficits. The emerging economies facing the most pressure, not surprisingly, are those with growing current account deficts and large external funding needs, notably Turkey and Argentina. In emerging-market land, at least, trade deficits still matter. In fact, those that have experienced the most depreciation tend to share the following vulnerabilities: A current account deficit A high level of liability dollarization (whether in the government’s liabilities, or the corporate sector) Limited reserves Net oil imports Relatively little trade exposure to the U.S., leaving little to gain from a stimulusinduced spike in U.S. demand Doubts about their commitments to deliver their inflation targets, and thus the credibility of their monetary policy frameworks. It is all a relatively familiar list. Though to be fair, Brazil has faced heavy depreciation pressure recently even though it has brought its current account down significantly since 2014.*  Part of the real’s depreciation is a function of the fact that Brazil and Argentina compete in a host of markets, and Brazil must allow some depreciation to keep pace with Argentina. Part of it may be a function of market dynamics too, as investors pull out of funds with emerging market exposure, amplifying down moves. And of course, part of it comes from increasingly pessimistic expectations for Brazil’s ongoing economic recovery—driven by uncertainty ahead the coming presidential elections together with a quite high level of domestic debt. And for Mexico, well, elections are just around the corner and uncertainty about the future of NAFTA can’t be helping… * Brazil also benefits from having much higher reserves than either Turkey or Argentina.  Its reserves are sufficient to cover the foreign currency debt of its government as well as its large state banks and firms in full.  This has given the central bank the capacity to sell local currency swaps to help domestic firms (and no doubt foreign investors holding domestic currency denominated bonds) hedge in times of stress.  But Brazil's reserve position is a topic best left for another time.
  • Economics
    World Economic Update
    Play
    The World Economic Update highlights the quarter’s most important and emerging trends.
  • Economics
    World Economic Update
    Play
    The World Economic Update highlights the quarter’s most important and emerging trends.