Defense and Security

Security Alliances

  • Ukraine
    NATO’s Next Moves
    NATO’s response to Russia’s annexation of Crimea may require it to bolster eastern European members with both military and non-military actions, says expert Christopher S. Chivvis.
  • International Law
    Crimea: Stop Citing International Law and Start Condemning Russian Expansionism
    Yesterday, Russian president Vladimir Putin pulled off a rigged referendum in which an overwhelming majority of Crimean voters chose union with the Russian Federation. But his victory is far from complete. The West retains a powerful card to play: mobilizing international opposition to deny Russia the international legitimacy it seeks for this naked power play.  U.S. and European leaders have roundly condemned the referendum, citing international law. It would be wiser for the West to shift the terms of the debate away from the legal merits of Russian conduct, and to focus instead on the illegitimacy of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and Moscow’s clear aspirations to expand its territory. To date, the global debate over Russia’s intervention in Ukraine has been framed primarily in legal terms, but this is devolving into an exchange of accusations and messy interpretations of historical precedents. Indignant Western governments condemn Russian’s conduct and Crimea’s secession as a blatant “violation of international law.”  Moscow, meanwhile, claims that it is affording the inhabitants of Crimea with their inherent right to national self-determination “in full compliance with international law.” Russia has also accused the West of hypocrisy, invoking the precedent of Kosovo—which unilaterally declared its independence from Serbia in 2008, to the fury of Belgrade and Moscow but the vigorous applause of the United States and many European countries. Moscow notes that the International Court of Justice in July 2010 subsequently judged that Kosovo’s declaration of independence was legal. The West has returned fire, noting that the Crimea already enjoyed considerable autonomy in Ukraine, like several regions in Russia, but that Moscow had brutally repressed independence movements within its own territories, including in Chechnya and Ingushetia. Moreover, the West counters, the Kosovo referendum occurred in the context of a UN peace operation, eight years after a massive campaign of ethnic cleansing at the hands of Serbia. In the case of Ukraine, it is occurring in the presence of Russian military troops occupying Crimea, and with no evidence of any Ukrainian campaign of oppression against Crimea’s Russians. This argument over the legality of Crimean secession has clearly proved a fruitless distraction. International law is flexible on the question of whether self-determination includes the right to secede. It is not a recognized “right,” but nor is it seen as necessarily “illegal.” Given the vulnerability of many states to secessionist movements, the general international preference has been to offer increased autonomy to ethnic minority enclaves, rather than independence. Secession, when it occurs, is expected to be a peaceful outcome of protracted negotiations both with the national government and the international community. In Crimea, of course, neither condition was satisfied. Farcically, the referendum was announced only ten days before it was to occur, and neither of the two options on the ballot included the status quo. And though the vote patently violated Ukraine’s own constitution (article 73 of which requires a referendum of the entire country before its territory is altered) ), secessionists have rarely bothered to consult with the mother country before acting—further undercutting legal arguments. This is true both for successful secessions (e.g., the United States against Great Britain after 1776) and unsuccessful ones (e.g., the Biafran campaign against the state of Nigeria). The "velvet divorce" allowing the secession of Slovakia from Czechoslovakia in 1993 is the exception rather than the rule here. Whatever the legality, Russia will find it even more difficult to sell the Crimean secession as legitimate. Despite attempts to liken it to Kosovo, (which 106 countries have recognized), the Crimean situation is more reminiscent of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, whose declaration of independence in 1983 has been recognized by only one nation: Turkey itself. As noted in a previous blog, Crimea’s secession sets a terrible precedent. Hundreds of minority populations around the world might in principle insist on secession, throwing existing borders into chaos. Not for nothing did Woodrow Wilson’s secretary of state Robert Lansing bemoan that the principle of national self-determination advanced by his president was “loaded with dynamite.” Moreover, Russia’s aspirations are not limited to Crimea, and its successful annexation could clear a path for the Kremlin to seek to regain de facto sovereignty over territories in the former Soviet Union with large Russian minority populations, under the pretext of protecting “oppressed” compatriots. We have seen this movie before, most obviously in Georgia. In 2008, the Russian military intervened to assist two breakaway republics, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. In the aftermath of that intervention, Moscow pledged to remove its troops. They remain there today. Or consider Moldova, where Moscow has for more than two decades supported the statelet of Transdniester, allowing it to become a veritable Walmart of arms trafficking. But in this case, the scale of Russian audacity is even more alarming. Dismembering portions of tiny Georgia (population 4.5 million) and Moldova (3.5 million) was outrageous but of limited geopolitical significance. Doing the same to Ukraine—population 46 million—is another thing. It suggests that Putin is determined to expand Moscow’s effective control, formal or informal, over as much of the Russian-speaking “near abroad” as he can. That this impulse may be driven less by overconfidence than desperation is of little comfort. Historically, the world has had as much to fear from anxious powers in decline than rising ones eager to sow their oats. Consider the role that miscalculations by Putin’s Romanov predecessors, along with the aging Hapsburg dynasty, played in the outbreak of the Great War one hundred years ago this coming August. Putin’s actions are unlikely to trigger another great power war. The United States and the European Union are already treating the annexation of the Crimea—a territory of only 2.3 million and a strategically and historically important part of Russia—as a fait accompli, But unless the West can make Putin feel the pain of his audacity, his irredentist ambitions are likely to grow. The most obvious target is the large Russian-majority population in eastern Ukraine, including the cities of Luhansk,  and Kharkiv. The resulting dismemberment of Ukraine, if allowed to proceed, would enter the history books alongside the partition of Poland as a naked exercise in power politics. But Ukraine is not the only country of concern. Commentators have expressed worries about the Baltic nations of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, given their sizeable Russian minorities. In 2007, the mere act of dismantling a Soviet-era statue of Lenin in the center of Tallin led to a massive cyberattack, apparently orchestrated from Russia, on Estonian government ministries. At the same time, Moscow is likely to avoid any direct military confrontation with the Baltic states—each of which is a NATO member—to avoid triggering a third world war. More realistic targets for incorporation into an expanded Russian Federation, beyond Ukraine, are Belarus and, potentially, portions of Kazakhstan. The former is already Moscow’s most reliable client state, suggesting there is no hurry to absorb it officially. The latter could become a target, depending on whether the government of Nursultan Nazarbayev toes a Russian line within Moscow’s Eurasian Union or adopts a more independent course, including overtures to China. Russia’s annexation of Crimea—which holds only 4 percent of Ukraine’s population—will not by itself significantly alter the balance of power in Eurasia. But it does establish a worrisome precedent that other powers—great and not-so-great—may seek to emulate. Beyond depriving Putin of recognition of his spoils, the West needs to send a powerful message about the wages of “sin”--in this case, unilaterally challenging the sanctity of borders. Targeting a few senior Russian officials for sanction should be only the beginning. And the Obama administration and international allies should stop citing international law and instead adopt more aggressive rhetoric noting that Russian expansionist aspirations are illegitimate and threaten peace on the continent.
  • International Organizations
    At Stake in Ukraine: The Future of World Order
    British Foreign Secretary William Hague has aptly labeled Ukraine the “biggest crisis in Europe in the twenty-first century.” Indeed, he could have gone further. The Russian intervention will reverberate beyond the continent, since it challenges the very principles of a stable world order.  How this crisis plays out may determine whether the twenty-first century remains a time of great power comity, where patterns of cooperation dominate, or deteriorates into a bare-knuckled era of geopolitical competition. Moscow’s intervention is testing several fundamental norms of world politics: It challenges established principles of sovereignty and nonintervention, it raises the specter of a return to great power spheres of influence, and it elevates the principle of nationality over citizenship. Moreover, it has already exposed, yet again, the weakness of collective security in the face of destabilizing action by a great power.  Sovereignty and the sanctity of borders: Most obviously, Russia’s insertion of troops into Ukraine’s Crimea region and effective seizure of the peninsula constitutes a blatant violation of Ukrainian sovereignty and of the nonintervention provisions contained in Article 2.7 of the United Nations Charter. While Russia has long maintained military installations in Sevastopol, home of its Black Sea Fleet, the Crimean peninsula has been part of Ukraine’s sovereign territory since its 1954 transfer from Russia by then Soviet premier Nikita S. Khrushchev. Ukraine has denounced Russia’s actions as a breach of the bilateral status of forces agreement between the two governments, and the United States concurs that international law has been violated. Beyond infringing on Ukraine’s borders and territorial integrity, Russia has challenged the most fundamental aspect of its sovereignty: monopoly on the legitimate use of armed force. Moscow’s “brazen act of aggression,” as Secretary of State Kerry has termed it, may be the clearest unilateral violation of another nation’s sovereignty since Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990. It is not without precedent, however: In 2008, Russian troops invaded Georgia to assist two breakaway republics—and has since reneged on its promise to remove its troops. Allowing Russian actions in Ukraine to stand now would gravely undermine the doctrine of state sovereignty, which remains—for all its limitations—a force for global stability. The resurgence of spheres of influence: Moscow’s intervention in Crimea cannot be viewed in isolation. It is part of a broader post-Cold War effort to consolidate control over Russia’s “near abroad.” Putin, who famously called the dissolution of the Soviet Union “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe” of the twentieth century, has never sought to disguise this aim. To pull former Soviet republics into Moscow’s orbit, he has deployed numerous instruments, such as creating a “Eurasian Union” intended to rival the EU and selling subsidized natural gas to friendly neighboring countries. Provided its regional hegemony was secure, Moscow has generally conformed with international norms. But it has been willing to resort to force when challenged, as in Georgia in 2008 or Ukraine today. Spheres of influence are nothing new, of course. During the nineteenth century, they were often explicit arrangements that helped avoid collisions and smooth frictions between the great powers. Later, during World War II, British prime minister Winston Churchill and Russian leader Joseph Stalin in 1944 worked out an infamous “percentages agreement,” which secretly outlined the respective influence that the United Kingdom and Russia might enjoy in postwar Eastern Europe. U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt, who learned of these plans, would have none of it. The UN Charter, by enshrining the principle of sovereign equality, was intended to end such arrangements forever. Returning from Yalta, where the Big Three had met in February 1945, Roosevelt proudly told a joint session of Congress: “The conference in the Crimea was a turning point—I hope in our history and the history of the world. It ought to spell the end of the system of unilateral action, the exclusive alliance, the spheres of influence, the balances of power, and all the other expedients that have been tried for centuries—and have always failed.” Ironically, of course, spheres of influence indeed survived into the Cold War in the form of tacit agreements between the superpowers. In Eastern Europe and the Caribbean Basin, respectively, the Soviet Union and the United States reserved the right to intervene to counter perceived threats to their respective strategic and political interests.  (To be sure, the Soviet sphere was far more closed than the U.S. one). With the end of the Cold War, many hoped spheres of influence would become a thing of the past. But Russia’s recent moves—as well as Chinese assertiveness in the South and East China Seas—suggest not. Reasserting the nationality principle. Putin and his hand-picked  parliament have justified his seizure of Crimea as a move to protect not only Russian nationals but “compatriots”—that  is, Russian-speaking inhabitants of Ukraine. In advancing this right, Putin has essentially elevated (Russian) ethnicity above (Ukrainian) citizenship. Like Czar Nicholas I, who claimed responsibility to protect co-religionists in the Ottoman Empire, he is asserting Moscow’s inherent right to defend a wider Russian diaspora in neighboring countries, including the estimated 58 percent of Crimeans who are ethnically Russian. By suggesting that the nationality principle trumps state sovereignty, Putin has opened a Pandora’s box. All  the former Soviet republics, from the Baltic to Central Asia, contain sizeable Russian minorities. Nor is Russia the only country in Eastern Europe  or Central Asia with large diaspora populations: consider that more than one million Hungarians live in Romania, or that a quarter of the inhabitants in Tajikistan are Uzbek. Farther afield, not least in Africa, the frequent incongruity between ethnicity and citizenship becomes even starker—and devotion only to nationality invites anarchy. Putin has recently disavowed any intent to annex the Crimean peninsula. But his actions have empowered local Russian nationalists who may seek to take matters into their own hands, threatening a bloody civil war in Ukraine. Undermining international organizations: The crisis has exposed once again the limitations of collective security when vital great power interests are at stake. The UN Security Council, so feckless in stopping violence in Syria, is even more hamstrung in resolving the Crimea crisis, thanks to the Russian veto. Given P5 divisions, the most that the UN can offer is mediation by senior UN officials. With the UNSC  unable to pass a strenuous resolution, attention has turned to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), which has played an occasionally valuable role in defusing other Eurasian conflicts, as in mediation efforts in Georgia and Kyrgyzstan. The United States and European Union have proposed that the OSCE provide observers to monitor the safety of Ukraine’s Russian population, thus removing Russia’s ostensible justification for intervention and perhaps providing Moscow with a face-saving “off-ramp” from the crisis. But OSCE decisions typically require consensus among the 57 members of the organization. And there seems little prospect that Putin, riding high, will feel much pressure to go along. Consequently, Western multilateral institutions will need to unite behind an approach. The  United States should press its G7 partners, particularly a reluctant Germany, to eject Russia from the G8. This step would have both symbolic and substantive benefits, ostracizing Russia from the high table of advanced market democracies, where it never truly belonged, and consolidating a Western forum united by shared interests and values. Simultaneously, the United States should ensure a solid front among its NATO allies. The alliance is under no obligation to come to the aid of Ukraine (a non-NATO country) and should avoid provocative actions, such as naval patrols near Crimea or mobilization on Russia’s borders. At the same time, it should provide unmistakable reassurances of support, as well as military assets, to its East European members, including the Baltic States, while indefinitely suspending any joint exercises with Russia. These steps are not likely, by themselves, to reverse Russian aggression. But they will at least provide a symbol of Western solidarity.
  • Transnational Crime
    The Global Regime for Transnational Crime
    This page is part of the Global Governance Monitor. Scope of the Challenge Over the past two decades, as the world economy has globalized, so has its illicit counterpart. The global impact of transnational crime has risen to unprecedented levels. Criminal groups have appropriated new technologies, adapted horizontal network structures that are difficult to trace and stop, and diversified their activities. The result has been an unparalleled scale of international crime. As many as fifty-two activities fall under the umbrella of transnational crime, from arms smuggling to human trafficking to environmental crime. These crimes undermine states' abilities to provide citizens with basic services, fuel violent conflicts, and subject people to intolerable suffering. The cost of transnational organized crime is estimated to be roughly 3.6 percent [PDF] of the global economy. Money laundering alone costs at least 2 percent of global gross domestic product every year according to UN reports. Drug traffickers have destabilized entire areas of the Western Hemisphere, leading to the deaths of at least fifty thousand people in Mexico alone in the past six years. Counterfeit medicines further sicken ill patients and contribute to the emergence of drug-resistant strains of viruses. Environmental crime—including illegal logging, waste dumping, and harvesting of endangered species—both destroy fragile ecosystems and endanger innocent civilians. Between twelve and twenty-seven million people toil in forced labor—more than at the peak of the African slave trade. For many reasons, global transnational crime presents nations with a unique and particularly challenging task. To begin with, by definition, transnational crime crosses borders. But the law enforcement institutions that have developed over centuries were constructed to maintain order primarily within national boundaries. In addition, transnational crime affects nations in diverse ways. In many states, political institutions have strong links to transnational crime, and citizens in numerous communities across the world rely on international criminal groups to provide basic services or livelihoods. Finally, the international community requires solid data to gauge the challenge and effectiveness of responses, but data on transnational organized crime is notoriously difficult to gather and is often politicized. Strengths and Weaknesses Overall Assessment: Archaic system needs reframing International efforts to address transnational organized crime (TOC) are too weak to address the threat. Strategies focus too little on combating corruption and addressing the increasing interplay of TOC and political power. On balance, multilateral initiatives to fight crime are sector specific and attempt to prosecute TOC without effectively addressing the market that underpins transnational crime globally. The central legal instrument for fighting transnational organized crime is the UN Convention on Transnational Organized Crime (UNTOC). Finalized in 2000 in Palermo, Italy, the convention is the first to address transnational crime as an activity that cannot be adequately curtailed by treaties tailored to one commercial sector. It defines a TOC group as a structured organization with three or more members and establishes legislative standards for nations to implement domestically. However, the convention's ability to inform [PDF] and influence operational practices is limited. UNTOC does not adequately account for the increasingly activity-based, horizontal structure of criminal syndicates or the growing nexus between organized crime and terrorism, corruption, conflict, public health, global finance, and modern technology. The struggle to implement the convention reflects a certain dearth of global political will to do so. In a number of major world powers, the state itself is captured—or partly captured—by organized crime. The governments of Russia and other Eurasian countries are known to benefit from ties between TOC and energy exports as well as from cybercrime; the Chinese economy earns high profits from counterfeits sold internationally; and many Latin American and West African politicians either are coerced by narcotrafficking groups, or maintain close ties with them. Most important, the treaty lacks an implementation mechanism that would allow assistance to countries not capable of adhering to the convention's guidelines. The UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) is charged with helping implement UNTOC on the ground, but its former executive director, Antonio Maria Costa, has rebuked UN member states for neglecting their responsibilities. At a 2010 conference of parties, countries acknowledged the need to revise the convention to be more effective and stressed the importance of implementation. A working group is currently reviewing implementation, which might ultimately lead to a monitoring or capacity-building provision. UNODC also provides technical assistance and training in constructing legal frameworks and enhancing national enforcement capacity. It serves as a hub for disseminating best practices and data collection on criminal activities. All estimates of the magnitude of TOC, however, are necessarily approximations; criminals obviously do not report their annual earnings or scope of activities, and published estimates are often politicized or rely on shaky data [PDF]. Furthermore, UNODC is 91 percent funded by voluntary contributions and suffers from chronic funding shortages and understaffing. These resource constraints continue to limit the agency's effectiveness. Beyond UNODC, a succession of UN Security Council (UNSC) open debates, and presidential statements, have slowly and steadily expanded that body's repertoire on TOC. For example, UNSC presidential statement 2009/32 urged the institution to prioritize the TOC threat to benefit peace and security in Africa. In 2010, the UNSC agreed to a presidential statement 2010/4 committing member states and the UN to fight transnational crime. Although the UN General Assembly has also issued many resolutions to fight TOC, most have been vague and irrelevant. The broader UN system has also tackled the issue of transnational crime through specialized agencies, programs, commissions, working groups, campaigns, and even a research institute. The UN Commission on Crime Prevention and Criminal Justice (CCPCJ), for example, reviews UN standards and norms to combat TOC as well as their implementation by member states. The UN's Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC) funds the CCPCJ and guides its work. ECOSOC has also issued a number of important resolutions on the subject, which still guide UNODC's work on crime prevention. For example, a 1995 resolution [PDF] outlined strategies like strengthening community resilience. Overall, however, the UN's work on TOC remains piecemeal. Units address the issue only within the context of their agency, departmental, or program mandate and bureaucracy, which impedes policy coherence and effective action. To rectify this, in early 2011, the UN secretary-general established a task force on transnational organized crime and drug trafficking with the aim of creating a system-wide strategy to fight international crime and enhance coordination. The taskforce clearly demonstrates that the UN is aware of the lack of internal cohesion and is increasingly viewing transnational crime as a political and strategic issue. National policing and border control is also critical to stopping organized crime. In an era of globalization, Interpol is the world's intermediary for police cooperation. Founded in 1923, Interpol has 190 members, each with a national central bureau staffed by local officials. The agency's priority is to secure communication among law enforcement agencies, to manage international criminal databases, to provide operational support during crises, and to train police forces. However, with a budget of roughly $75 million in 2010, the agency is grossly underfunded. It also holds no authority to conduct investigations independently or to arrest suspects, and is therefore only as strong as the host country's police force. The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund are also engaged in the fight against TOC, namely, in conducting assessments of anti–money laundering provisions in countries. To date, the institutions have conducted some seventy assessments, but a recent report [PDF] suggests that they are largely uneven because they did not focus on areas that present greater risk. The World Bank also carries out anticorruption efforts, and in 2011 pledged $1.5 billion to fight TOC over the next few years, recognizing its corrosive impact on development. Regional cooperation, particularly at borders, is generally weak despite initiatives, such as Europol's annual organized crime threat assessment, the European Union's prioritization of anti-TOC efforts in Bulgaria and Romania, and comparable efforts under the Stability Pact for Southeastern Europe. The Financial Action Task Force (FATF), an initiative of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), has adopted a successful policy of "naming and shaming" noncooperating jurisdictions, and has enlisted countries to craft legislative frameworks to combat money laundering. Eight regional initiatives modeled on FATF have since been established to replicate its work, and have been widely hailed [PDF] as successful. However, more broadly, regional efforts have been weak. For instance, the initiative of the Economic Community of West African States to adopt a moratorium on the import and export of light weapons has had little impact. Various major donor countries fund projects in partner nations to enhance security. The United States, for instance, supports four regional International Law Enforcement Academies designed to provide countries with technical support. In general, however, bilateral donor initiatives on TOC are modest. While programs like Plan Colombia and the Mérida Initiative have significant funds, the aid is overwhelmingly military, and funding for more comprehensive solutions has consistently decreased [PDF] year after year. Imposing economic sanctions against criminal groups is a new strategy being tested by the United States. In July 2011, the Obama administration issued sanctions against four TOC groups in Mexico, Japan, Italy, and eastern Europe. The order froze their assets and criminalized aid to the groups. Such provisions have often been used, with measured success, to target other nonstate actors—namely, terrorists. Overall, the TOC regime faces three sweeping challenges. First, political will is too often lacking at national, regional, and global levels. More than a few states are crippled by corruption, and when political leaders or elites benefit from organized crime, implementation of international frameworks is not feasible. Second, the current regime suffers from critical normative gaps, and sensible strategies where norms exist. The international community has yet to agree to an operational definition of TOC. As a result, monitoring and enforcement of counter-TOC agreements is weak, many countries have not signed onto important treaties, and national legislation is unevenly implemented. Finally, the dearth of data—and impracticality of properly measuring international criminal activity—hinders every attempt to devise adequate strategies to combat TOC. Building Norms: Progressing but still stovepiped and vaguely defined To construct effective strategies to fight transnational organized crime (TOC), the international community has attempted to build normative consensus. The UN Convention on Transnational Organized Crime (UNTOC) provided the definition of a TOC group, but it will take years before the convention is fully integrated into national judicial systems. Although some international norms are already strong—such as those for drug trafficking and money laundering—the world is struggling to design instruments that respond effectively to the groups that engage in many forms of crime. At the same time, current norms do not consider the range of political motivations and alliances between powerful political or business leaders and criminals. Still, one important normative shift is already occurring. Traditionally, global and national standards have aimed primarily to detect and diminish the supply, transport, and sale of illicit commodities. But nations and international institutions are increasingly recognizing the need for a more comprehensive strategy. They are slowly integrating public health, development, and community-based practices to decrease not only the supply but also the demand for illicit commodities. In parallel, development institutions, such as the World Bank, are recognizing [PDF] that anti-TOC funding and programs are imperative for economic growth, democracy, and governance. Globalization has facilitated an explosive growth in transnational organized crime since the early 1990s. The international community has sought to respond with stronger and more comprehensive measures. In 1994, at the World Ministerial Conference on Organized Transnational Crime in Naples, Italy, countries took an important step and called for a multi-sector treaty that addressed the whole spectrum of TOC. Previously, international treaties had targeted one type of illicit activity—with drug trafficking treaties being the most potent—but failed to address the diverse activities of TOC groups. The result was UNTOC, also known as the Palermo Convention, which was finalized in 2000 and came into force in 2003. Today, UNTOC stands as the core treaty addressing transnational crime as an overarching problem—and the only comprehensive tool the world has. However, the world still lacks an operational definition for transnational crime, and norms for law enforcement and judicial cooperation remain weak, vague, or nonexistent. UNTOC defined groups that engage in TOC but "excluded single, ad hoc operations," which are responsible for much of TOC today. Furthermore, to effectively track and prosecute international crime, nations must agree to robust policing cooperation and to assist developing countries. Prosecutions for international crime may require evidence from authorities of multiple nations. Pursuing suspects requires intelligence sharing, extradition, and cross-border police cooperation. Identifying perpetrators also requires capable domestic institutions. However, transnational law enforcement cooperation can be exceedingly controversial. Joint investigations are often undermined when foreign investigations must rely on support from corrupt countries that do not wish to fight crime or whose systems are crippled by corruption. Nations jealously guard judicial and policing authorities as sovereign authorities. Accordingly, these topics have barely been mentioned in international conventions. Countries are also generally reluctant to release domestic intelligence to other nations or to a collective intergovernmental or supranational authority. Finally, many experts have long called for the world to reorient the fight against crime away from law enforcement and instead address transnational crime as a market activity. As long as incentives for participating in international crime remain so high, they argue, success against one group, or in one area, will merely create a scramble by other groups to usurp the former group's profit. For example, norms to combat narcotrafficking are very strong, but some argue that they are misguided, because "successes" in one area may only displace the problem elsewhere. The high-profile, well-resourced, and internationally exported U.S.-led war on drugs has long prioritized law enforcement over market-based policies. This approach is so entrenched that retooling international norms to incorporate market-based strategies is an uphill battle. The United States has recently been more candid [PDF] about demand in the developed world fueling international crime, as well as about the need for prevention and treatment, but international action remains strongly focused on supply-side measures. Some critics believe that the global regime needs to shift entirely toward a public health model designed to reduce demand rather than stamp out supply. When it comes to other criminal sectors, anti–money laundering (AML) norms are among the strongest. In the 1980s, the developed world began to forge international AML instruments, which resulted in the Financial Action Task Force's (FATF) forty recommendations for domestic AML regimes. The FATF also identified certain "noncooperating jurisdictions" that could be subject to international naming and shaming. September 11 inspired additional recommendations to combat terrorist financing, and FATF norms have since become the global yardstick for counter–terrorist financing efforts. The need to "follow the money" to root out nonstate actors has become firmly embedded in international normative frameworks. Global norms against human trafficking and illicit weapons smuggling have also developed significantly in the past decade as nations accede to the relevant protocols to UNTOC: the Protocol to Prevent, Suppress, and Punish Trafficking in Persons, Especially Women and Children; the Protocol Against the Smuggling of Migrants by Land, Sea, and Air, and the Protocol Against the Illicit Manufacturing of and Trafficking in Firearms, their Parts and Components and Ammunition. Much remains to be done, however. Labor trafficking and the dangers of migrant smuggling receive far too little attention in comparison with sexual trafficking. In terms of weapons smuggling, recognition of its contribution to armed conflict, particularly in Africa and Latin America, is growing, but the world still lacks a strong, enforceable treaty that governs illicit trafficking in small arms and light weapons. Given the weakness of global normative frameworks, certain regions have endeavored to address transnational crime on their own. This approach has some merit, inasmuch as regions often face drastically different realities, and more focused local multilateral institutions may be better suited to combat the threat. On the other hand, some worry that separate regional approaches might undermine common global standards—or help push criminal activities to more vulnerable regions. To date, regional norms remain weakly developed except in Europe, where the integration of the European Union (EU) has allowed more law enforcement and judicial cooperation. Still, even EU states have been unable to agree to an operational definition of TOC. As organized crime surged in West Africa over the past decade, the Economic Community of West African States did attempt to build regional mechanisms to stem the tide, but fighting organized crime remains a fairly low priority across most of the continent. The Organization of American States' Hemispheric Action Plan, meanwhile, has endorsed UNTOC and stressed the need for states to implement it—but it has not dented the growth of transnational crime in Latin America. In Asia, the Pacific Islands Forum has made important strides through a capacity-building framework with Australia, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations has agreed to some important transnational crime norms, but the region remains plagued by TOC. Overall, as criminal organizations grow stronger, the world lags in its efforts to devise adequate mechanisms to fight them. In part this reflects a structural problem—the ease with which illicit networks can hopscotch across sovereign borders, leaving national governments behind. In sum, "even as crime is transnationalized, crime control remains largely corralled behind national borders." Corruption: Normative and institutional progress, spotty implementation Corruption fosters the ideal environment for transnational organized crime (TOC). Corruption supports a wide range of illicit markets, from drugs and arms trafficking to environmental crime and counterfeit markets. The same motives that attract TOC to corrupt states also prevent the state from establishing rule of law and a functional judicial system, as corrupt officials benefit from the lack of transparent and accountable systems. Corruption is also notoriously difficult to eradicate in countries where it is deeply embedded in political culture. Many high-level politicians profit from organized crime, hindering anti-TOC efforts. Indeed, in many Eurasian, Latin American, and West African states, criminal syndicates have deeply penetrated executive bodies, legislatures, the police, and courts. Where states consider organized crime an ally in domestic governance, they inevitably will be reluctant to support the development of more robust international governance capacities. Despite some efforts, the international community has been unable to mobilize an effective method to combat corruption. Over the past decade, anticorruption efforts have picked up steam, but progress is halting. After two protracted years of negotiations, the United Nations Convention against Corruption (UNCAC) entered into force in December 2005 and established an overarching international framework. As the first legally binding international anticorruption agreement, UNCAC provides a comprehensive set of measures to be implemented by state parties to prevent, combat, and prosecute corruption. Significantly, UNCAC does not define corruption, but does require states to criminalize a wide range of corrupt acts, including bribery, kickbacks, money laundering, embezzlement, and obstructing justice. In an important breakthrough after long-standing disagreement among states, asset recovery is also listed as a fundamental provision of the convention. Emphasizing the need for international cooperation, UNCAC requires state parties to return ill-gotten gains to the country of origin. It also calls for enhanced transparency and accountability, based on the argument that more knowledge raises the costs of illicit activity and therefore reduces corruption. The convention initially received broad support and has nearly global coverage with 159 state parties. However, countries known for endemic corruption—such as Afghanistan, Honduras, and Russia—are parties to the convention, undermining its legitimacy and exposing its weaknesses. Although UNCAC successfully builds anticorruption norms, it does not provide for monitoring, implementation, or enforcement. The first session of the Conference of State Parties to UNCAC, held in 2006, attempted to address this criticism by committing to establish a mechanism to monitor corruption. But subsequent sessions have failed to reach an agreement. Regional organizations have also made significant normative progress by developing comprehensive anticorruption instruments, although implementation and effectiveness have been patchy. The first regional convention to address corruption was the Inter-American Convention against Corruption, which was adopted by state parties to the Organization of American States and entered into force in March 1997. The Council of Europe passed the Criminal Law Convention on Corruption in January 2002, with an additional protocol authorizing the creation of a monitoring mechanism, the Group of States Against Corruption. In July 2003, the African Union Convention on Preventing and Combating Corruption was enacted in an attempt to address widespread corruption on the African continent. One of the most successful—albeit controversial—regional initiatives is the International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG). At the request of the Guatemalan government, the UN created CICIG in 2007 to reinforce the rule of law by strengthening institutions, investigating corruption, and training officials. By 2010, CICIG helped to oust thousands of corrupt policemen, ten prosecutors, three supreme court justices, and an attorney general. The commission has also supported the trials and convictions [PDF] of more than 130 criminals, including a former president and foreign minister. Some critics have questioned CICIG's sustainability, arguing that it is not fulfilling its mandate to transfer technical capacities to Guatemalan counterparts and interfering in cases beyond its remit. At the same time, CICIG must request to join criminal cases as a complementary prosecutor and the Guatemalan justice system can deny it jurisdiction to participate—decreasing the commission's independence and potential impact. Nevertheless, the commission is an important model for anticorruption efforts. Together, UNCAC and regional conventions provide a solid foundation of international norms, standards, and measures to combat corruption. However, they fall short of the integration and coordination required of a global anticorruption strategy and have not significantly affected change on the ground in most countries. To fill the void, other international and civil society organizations that focus primarily on economic and sustainable development have taken up the mantle of anticorruption work. The World Bank, Interpol, the Group of Twenty (G20), the International Monetary Fund, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development have attempted to raise awareness of the issue by addressing the consequences of corruption. The World Bank has spearheaded efforts to combat corruption through a partnership with the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), called the Stolen Asset Recovery Initiative (StAR). Established in 2007, StAR provides assistance and training to developing countries to prevent money laundering and recover stolen assets. The initiative has worked with over five hundred officials in forty countries around the world and is expanding its country partnerships, although no assets have been recovered thus far. StAR is further hindered by the fact that it cannot legally investigate or prosecute cases of stolen assets. As part of the StAR initiative, the World Bank cooperates with numerous global bodies, such as INTERPOL and the international center for asset recovery, to help seize and return stolen funds. In addition, the G20 formed the Anti-Corruption Working Group in June 2010 to develop and recommend anticorruption business practices. Nongovernmental organizations and academic institutions play a critical role in pioneering innovative solutions to increase transparency in corrupt governments. The Program on Liberation Technology, for example, at Stanford University is researching the use of mobile phones to text individuals facts on government spending (per public record), so as to empower local communities with the knowledge of what they should receive and what they do receive. These efforts are complicated by the fact that there is no existing method of measuring corruption. This is partly because it is largely conducted in secret, and partly because corruption can sometimes appear legitimate. Transparency International, a civil society organization, publishes the annual Corruption Perceptions Index, which ranks countries according to perceptions of public-sector corruption. Although it is not a perfect science, it does provide a comprehensive assessment of individual countries and regions. In 2011, Somalia, North Korea, Myanmar, and Afghanistan led the list as the most corrupt countries in the world. A recent survey [PDF] conducted by the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) estimated that Afghan officials paid $2.5 billion in bribes and related payments in 2009. When undertaken, national anticorruption strategies to end impunity and promote capacity building have also produced some success. In 2008, the Mexican government launched Operación Limpieza (Operation Clean), with the goal of purging the law enforcement of corruption. Thus far, the interim commissioner of the federal police, head of the counternarcotics division, and thirty other officials have been arrested. Following the Money: Increasingly legislated, uneven implementation Money laundering is the life blood of transnational organized crime. Since the late 1980s, the world has been straining to manage illicit flows of cash among the massive sums that flow across borders every day. A meta-analysis [PDF] conducted by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) in 2011 concluded that globally, criminal proceeds amount to around 3.6 percent (or between 2.3 and 5.5 percent) of the world's gross domestic products combined—roughly $2.1 trillion annually—and costs between 2 and 5 percent of global gross domestic product ever year according to the UN. Nations have prioritized "following the money" to identify criminals and deter citizens from turning to crime, but the world is floundering [PDF] in its efforts. "Ultimately, anti–money laundering tools, which were designed to combat organized crime, have been ineffective," according to a ten-year review of the Palermo Convention [PDF]. The UNODC reports that less than 1 percent [PDF] of illicit financial flows around the world are seized and frozen. This saps nations of needed resources and allows criminals to profit illegally and remain at large. The Financial Action Task Force (FATF), founded in 1989 by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, is celebrated as one of the greatest anti–money laundering (AML) successes. FATF's forty recommended measures, published in 1990, and nine counterterrorist financing measures, lay out steps national governments can take to improve AML capabilities. In 2012, FATF also revised its recommendations based on feedback from the financial sector, businesses, nongovernmental organizations, and individuals, and combined the terrorism and money laundering recommendations. All member countries both carry out a self assessment and submit to peer review of their implementation of recommendations. In 2000 FATF also published an associated list of noncooperative countries and territories [PDF] (NCCT). Fearful of losing investment or international standing, all twenty-three of the countries first included on the FATF list subsequently enacted AML legislative frameworks and many more passed similar laws in order to avoid landing on the list. Twelve binding UN Security Council resolutions between 2001 and 2010 also mandated UN member states to improve financial monitoring systems, and the FATF recommendations became the yardstick for compliance. Experts therefore credit the FATF NCCT list with coercing "between a quarter and a third of the world's sovereign states… to adopt the standard AML policy" by 2006. However, despite putting laws on the books, the majority of these countries are incapable or unwilling to strictly enforce them. To date, eight regional groups modeled on FATF have emerged across the world, that is, FATF-style regional bodies (FSRBs). With a deeper understanding of the local context, the FSRBs evaluate state systems in the region, and recommend ways to improve AML regimes. FSRBs also provide training for law enforcement officials and help countries develop financial intelligence units (FIUs) in coordination with UNODC, which track suspicious financial activity. FIUs are essential because they can participate in an international information sharing initiative that builds a network of FIUs, known as theEgmont Group. As internationally monitored initiatives, FSRBs add meat to various other regional efforts, ranging from the Organization of American States AML standards to an action group against money laundering of the Economic Community of West African States. More broadly, countries have incrementally forged important AML norms. Originally, the 1988 United Nations Convention Against Illicit Traffic in Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic Substances first criminalized laundering the profits of drug trafficking. This was later expanded to apply to all money laundering in 1998 by a UN General Assembly political declaration. Then, the UN Convention Against Transnational Organized Crime(UNTOC or Palermo Convention) and the UN Convention Against Corruption(UNCAC), which entered into force in 2003 and 2005 respectively, further entrenched necessary AML standards. Interpol supports these efforts by processing investigative requests between nations, but because Interpol lacks its own jurisdiction, it primarily urges nations to implement these norms rather than enforces them itself. The Palermo Convention clarifies several AML steps for signatories to take. State parties must criminalize money laundering and any conscious facilitation of it, as well as "institute a comprehensive domestic regulatory and supervisory regime… in order to deter and detect all forms of money laundering." These include stipulations regarding customer identification, record keeping and the reporting of suspicious transactions, as well as shoring up law enforcement, regulatory, and administrative regimes with the necessary resources to cooperate with national and international AML investigations. However, these obligations have been unevenly implemented by states. Equally important, UNCAC mandates that states "take such civil and administrative measures" to prevent government corruption from the highest levels to lower-level border officials, policeman, and bankers. Since their complicity is necessary for transnational crimes ranging from weapons smuggling to money laundering, these measures are crucial. But implementation has lagged across many member states. To help states meet these standards, the UN Global Program Against Money Laundering, Proceeds of Crime and the Financing of Terrorism (GPML) provides technical assistance in various forms such as legislative advice or training justice officials to investigate and prosecute financial crime. GPML also supports countries that wish to update [PDF] their domestic AML frameworks, and its mentor program "is one of the most successfulknown activities in AML/CTF technical and training assistance." In a 2011 review by an independent panel of experts, GPML was deemed "successful" and "highly relevant." In 2000, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) also responded to the growing challenge of money laundering, emphasizing that it not only facilitates crime, but also threatens members' economies by undermining the stability of financial institutions, increasing the volatility of capital flows, and having a "dampening effect on foreign direct investment." In response, the IMF now conducts assessments, provides technical assistance, and drafts policy recommendations for the global AML effort. As an international body focused on global finance with universal membership, the IMF was able to expand the scope of AML efforts beyond the global North. Still, the IMF is not ideally suited to root out criminal profits because AML efforts require law enforcement and judicial prosecution. Despite these initiatives, corruption, corporate and bank secrecy, and informal money transfer systems like hawala continue to complicate AML efforts. Financial havens such as Nauru or the Cayman Islands provide opportunities for illicit monetary transfers no matter how robust domestic or regional frameworks are. Many banks also provide offshore operations for clients seeking broader secrecy. Swiss banks, for example, have transferred many operations to Liechtenstein, the Cayman Islands, or Isle of Jersey. In some cases, banks collude with criminal organizations—even in developed nations as evidenced by one U.S. bank's cooperation with Mexican cartels. Therefore, strong regulatory policies are crucial and need to be closely monitored. A growing trend, for instance, requires private banks or firms to take responsibility for AML. In response, banks increasingly publish their own AML policies [PDF], pledge to enact "know your customer" rules, cooperate with law enforcement, and even recruit former financial investigator police officers. In one instance, for example, U.S. banks detected certain money laundering tactics like mirror accounts of drug cartels. Still, numerous studies have concluded that banks generally believe that AML regulations are not cost effective and impose an enormous burden on them. The 2008 financial crisis inspired calls for broader regulations and the U.S. government has recently begun to revisit AML regulation under the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, but implementation of the countless stipulations is far off, if not impossible. Another new strategy with great potential is the use of national sanctions to combat transnational crime. Between July 2011 and February 2012, the U.S. Treasury imposed sanctions on five criminal syndicates in Mexico, Italy, eastern Europe, and Japan. The department stated that the effort aimed to prevent the groups from using billions in annual profits. Experts noted that sanctions have been effective against nonstate actors like al-Qaeda, and thus might aid in combating criminal groups. Though promising, the move's impact has yet to be demonstrated, and it does not portend to replace multilateral AML cooperation. Narcotrafficking: Stuck in criminalization paradigm Narcotrafficking is arguably the most legislated and enforced sector of transnational crime, but the effectiveness of the regime is increasingly questioned. Pressing international issues often suffer from underfunding and lack of high-profile attention, but narcotrafficking is an exception. Heavily backed by U.S. resources and enormous U.S. political attention, countries have sought to enforce an array of treaties that regulate production, distribution, and transport of nonmedical drugs. But trafficking groups easily change location, adapt network-style structures, and diversify their activities to evade law enforcement efforts. As a result, experts stress the need to understand narcotrafficking as a market. In 2011, the UN Global Commission on Drug Policy recommended a paradigm shift to public health rather than criminalization, noting that despite $2.5 trillion spent since the 1970s, the U.S.-led global war on drugs has failed, primarily because of its focus on law enforcement. Slowly, some countries and international institutions are attempting to incorporate public health and economic programs into the fight against narcotrafficking, but much remains to be done. The Commission on Narcotic Drugs is the main international body that oversees the implementation of global anti-narcotrafficking efforts by deciding which drugs belong to which schedules (or risk levels) of the drug control treaties and advising other bodies. The UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) is the primary agency to help countries implement UN treaties and initiatives on the ground. Highly respected, UNODC operates around the world, conducting evaluations of the illegal drug market, helping states implement awareness programs, and providing treatment support. In addition, the UNODC Justice Section [PDF] helps states establish or improve judicial frameworks and works to empower law enforcement agencies to investigate and prosecute drug traffickers. For example, a joint program [PDF] with the World Customs Organization that operates in eleven countries helps those nations regulate the contents of shipping containers in which drugs often cross borders. UNODC also conducts a wide array of other operations related to international crime that are critical to anti-narcotrafficking efforts, including anticorruption and alternative livelihood development, among others. Its resources, however, are limited. The core narcotrafficking accords that still serve as the basis for the international anti-narcotrafficking regime emerged between 1960 and 1990. In 1961, the Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs (Single Convention) synthesized the mandates of nine drug-related treaties dating back to the 1912 International Opium Convention. The Single Convention also established a list of prohibited substances and limits on the possession, distribution, manufacture and production of prohibited drugs—as well as set up the International Narcotics Control Board, a precursor to UNODC. A decade later, the 1971 Convention on Psychotropic Substances incorporated manufactured drugs such as methamphetamines and lysergic acid diethylamide (LSD)—though it did not criminalize them as harshly as organic illegal drugs. In 1988, the Convention Against Illicit Traffic in Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic Substances built on the previous two treaties, obliging states to criminalize possession, purchase, and cultivation of illegal drugs. It also set down rules for extradition cooperation, created provisions of mutual legal assistance to investigate and prosecute suspects, and criminalized money laundering of narcotrafficking profits. Still in force, these three conventions represent the backbone of the international war on drugs. Notably, during negotiations for the 1961 Single Convention, nations coalesced into various blocs in a manner that affected the drug regime for the next decades. Powerful nations that were primary importers of illegal organic drugs, such as the United States and West Germany, successfully lobbied for a strict control regime on the supply side, rather than requiring states with high addiction rates to attempt to mitigate demand through health-based policies at home. As a result, today's anti-narcotrafficking instruments continue to identify the illegal drug trade primarily as a criminal activity, and therefore charge nations to control the problem through law enforcement. More recently, the 2000 UN Convention on Transnational Organized Crime did incorporate more comprehensive strategies to fight drug-related offenses. Article 30 of that treaty requires "other measures" to fight crime "through economic development" and Article 31, stipulates that states "shall endeavor to develop" appropriate preventive strategies. Although an important normative development, the directives remain vague and underemphasized. Regional organizations have joined the fight against narcotrafficking, with mixed results. The Organization of American States has launched some innovative programs that aim to decrease demand for illegal drugs, but the region still faces an enormous challenge. Latin American leaders are using the forum to pressure the world—and especially the United States—to reevaluate existing prohibition regimes, but any progress will take years. The European Union is endowed with broader powers than other regional initiatives, and therefore has been able to impose more consistent legislation across the union and support capacity-building initiatives in eastern Europe, but European drug use and rates of human trafficking continue to climb. The Economic Community of West African States has taken initial steps to fight drug trafficking, but governance gaps in the region continue to leave it vulnerable. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has conferred high-level political attention on narcotrafficking, committing to a "Drug-Free ASEAN", but the realities of governance gaps and economic development challenges have impeded [PDF] these efforts. A number of bilateral capacity-building endeavors have also had a major impact on narcotrafficking norms around the world. Plan Colombia, (now called the Andean Counterdrug Initiative) for example, is an $8.5 billion program initiated in 1999 in which the United States provides expertise and financial resources to the Colombian military and administrative and judicial sectors to help Colombia fight narcotraffickers. Though the policy has managed to curb the Colombian drug problem to some extent (though not without controversy), in 2010, the UNODC reported that the lion's share of drug cultivation had merely been displaced to neighboring Peru. The United States has also devoted $1.5 billion since 2008 to the Mérida Initiative to help Mexico suppress cartels there, but as Mexico tames the drug trade in one area it reappears elsewhere and violence is increasing. Mexico's drug trade has also contributed to surging violence in Central America. Experts stress that these outcomes demonstrate the need to prioritize comprehensive strategies rather than rely too heavily on law enforcement. New methods are slowly being pioneered to fight demand at the national level, but they remain the exception rather than the rule. A domestic program within the United States has pioneered drug courts, which supervise drug addicts during treatment rather than imprisoning them. In the first twenty years, drug courts were reported to be 75 percent more successful at preventing recidivism than incarceration and to reduce crime by as much as 35 percent. Similarly, Brazil has devised a strategy of placing permanent "pacifying police units" in the violent favelas, rather than attack narcotrafficking gangs with military police—an approach that has led to a "drastic change," in the words of a Brazilian police captain. Furthermore, some U.S. districts are experimenting with drug market intervention [PDF]—where known drug dealers are invited to meet with community leaders who convince them of the harm they are inflicting on friends and family, rather than arrested and imprisoned—with remarkable success. Although such initiatives are small, they provide a promising model. The War on Illicit Weapons: Rising awareness, limited scope Smuggling weapons or their integral components fuels conflict among and within states as well as empowers pernicious nonstate actors such as gangs, pirates, and terrorists. Weapons smuggling can include the illicit transfer or diversion of materials, technology, and components related to weapons of mass destruction (WMD) as well as the trafficking and theft of conventional weapons. Awareness has spread about the overall threat from this form of transnational crime, but institutions to counteract the illicit transfer of weapons remain limited in scope. The threat from illicit WMD transfers is primarily that a terrorist group would create a radiological dirty bomb or assemble a nuclear device. Although the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, which was agreed to in 1968, attempted to prevent the unchecked proliferation of nuclear weapons, many find the treaty and its enforcement body, the International Atomic Energy Agency, ill equipped to counter threats posed by so-called rogue states and dangerous nonstate actors. The possibility of al-Qaeda or another group independently building a nuclear bomb is relatively small, but the consequences would be devastating. As evidenced by the discovery of the Abdul Qadeer Khan network in Pakistan, modern smuggling can involve intricate transnational channels supporting the transfer of sensitive technology. Stockpiles of nuclear warheads and material are also at risk for theft or illicit transfers, especially within the territory of the former Soviet Union. In 2004, the passage of UN Security Council Resolution 1540 (UNSCR) marked a watershed moment for efforts to stem the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Binding on all UN member states, UNSCR 1540 called on countries to implement domestic legislation to prevent proliferation, as well as established the 1540 Committee to monitor implementation of the resolution. Regardless, as of 2011, more than fifty [PDF] UN members had not formally reported their efforts to prevent nuclear proliferation to the 1540 Committee. Other challenges related to the implementation of UNSCR 1540 include difficulties in coordinating global nonproliferation capacity-building efforts and addressing the concerns of some developing states that claim to lack the necessary technical expertise and resources to implement the resolution's provisions. In addition, many developing countries simply do not prioritize the threat of nuclear weapons as highly as other issues. The relatively recent emergence of multilateral arrangements like the Proliferation Security Initiative, Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism, and the UN Convention for the Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism have been critical tools for norm-building and sustaining global attention on the threat posed by the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Nevertheless, potential candidates for illicit transfers—whether state or nonstate—can simply opt not to cooperate or participate in these accords. Similarly, although the 2010 Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, attended by nearly fifty heads of state or government, pledged to secure vulnerable fissile nuclear material by 2014, the pledge was not legally binding, nor did it cover threats posed by the proliferation of specific nuclear weapons related components. A binding Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty also has yet to be drafted. Conventional weapons, whether small arms and light weapons (SALW) or more advanced weapons systems, are substantially more likely to be smuggled or involved in illicit transfers. The UN's Register for Conventional Arms was created for states to report all exports and imports related to seven categories of armaments considered to be the most dangerous, including small arms. However, compliance by countries is voluntary and reporting has declined in recent years. The illegal trafficking of SALW, an estimated $1 billion annual industry, has received significant global attention. The UN's Program of Action to Prevent, Combat, and Eradicate the Illicit Trade in SALW in all its Aspects (PoA) is its most comprehensive effort in this area. Adopted by all UN member states in 2001, the PoA requires countries to develop national bodies that review legislation and cooperate internationally to stem illicit trade of SALW. Despite setting important normative foundations on licensing, tracing, and international cooperation, the PoA is a voluntary agreement and does not address [PDF] important issues including ammunitions, state-to-state transfer, and transfer to nonstate actors. A review conference scheduled for 2012 will examine the implementation of its recommendations by member states, but analysts have already reported significant gaps in implementation for a variety of reasons. To begin with, some states do not clearly understand their obligations [PDF], even when the PoA is unambiguous, and for many nations SALW trafficking is not a high priority. In addition, the PoA lacks [PDF] clear benchmarks and a mechanism for sharing best practices to support implementation. The only legally binding treaty on SALW is the Firearms Protocol, a complementary instrument to the UN Convention on Transnational Organized Crime, that requires states to bolster control measures against illicit firearms and their ammunition. However, this agreement also does not regulate state-to-state transfers and has had only some success in helping countries keep a tab on illicit weapons, despite licensing, marking, and tracing provisions. For example, in 2007, in violation of international sanctions, a Ukrainian ship transported thirty-three T-72 tanks, rocket-propelled grenades, and anti-aircraft guns to South Sudan via Kenya. The International Tracing Instrument (ITI), an offshoot of the PoA, was created to fill this vacuum. The ITI aims to identify and trace weapons' paths from source to destination. However, an April 2011 report on small arms by the UN secretary-general notes that, in many cases, ground-level officials do not understand tracking related markings on weapons, or do not have the records needed to link weapons with arms manufacturers. Often, serial numbers are simply ground off weapons. The United Nations has resumed talks to negotiate a potentially comprehensive and legally binding arms trade treaty. Prospects for a breakthrough are dim, however. Contentious topics will require tough compromises from states such as China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States—top arms exporters. U.S. constitutional protections to possess personal firearms significantly complicate negotiations. The agenda includes establishing a monitoring provision for SALW ammunition exports, determining responsibility for illegal state-to-state SALW sales, and enforcing such an accord. Still, the number of civil society groups dedicated to promoting stronger and more inclusive cross-border regulations of small arms and light weapons has exploded. Established in 1998, the International Action Network on Small Arms, for instance, combines the work of numerous international groups seeking to stop all trafficking of SALW. Persistent lobbying from international nongovernmental organizations may have also played a central role accelerating UN and other regional negotiations to prevent the smuggling of conventional weapons. Regionally, robust accords to prevent the trafficking of arms are the exception rather than the rule. One of the most far reaching is the binding Economic Community of Western African States Convention on Small Arms and Light Weapons, which entered into force in 2009. Some posit that the convention, which was drafted with support from leading SALW civil society groups and banned arms transfers to nonstate actors, could be a model for other regions and even work toward a global arms trade treaty. The moratorium, however, has been "routinely flouted" [PDF] and has little impact. Illicit markets: Lacks comprehensive framework, international agreement Global efforts to curtail these markets tend to be sector-specific responses, despite the fact that many criminal groups have diversified their activities into multiple markets. Collectively, global conventions, multilateral initiatives, and international institutions provide normative standards of protection, target the movement of illegal goods, and criminalize illicit activities—with varying degrees of effectiveness. Where norms exist, enforcement tends to be uneven. Nongovernmental organizations and private-sector entities have called for a global monitoring mechanism to track violations and seizures to expand knowledge of trends and developments. Statistics point to oceans as a major channel for illicit markets, given that nearly 90 percent [PDF] of global manufactured goods are transported by container. Several International Maritime Organization (IMO) conventions address the safety of container shipping, including the International Convention on Safe Containers, which establishes uniform regulations for shipping containers. The conventions, however, do not address comprehensive security solutions, and illegal goods are secretly stashed in containers en route to their destinations. In 1992, the IMO enacted the Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts Against the Safety of Maritime Navigation, which created a legal framework to interdict, detain, and prosecute terrorists, pirates, and other criminals. The U.S. government attempts to address this vulnerability in part through the Container Security Initiative (CSI), which aims to prescreen the majority of containers destined for the United States by isolating those that contain illegal goods before transit. The initiative, which operates in fifty-eight foreign ports, covers more than 80 percent of container cargo en route to the United States. Several international partners and organizations, including the European Union, Group of Eight, and WCO, have expressed interest in modeling security measures for containerized cargo based on the CSI model, though such expansion is years away. Despite these efforts, experts estimate that only 2 percent of containers destined for U.S. ports are actually inspected. Trade in Counterfeit Products The World Trade Organization (WTO), the main international institution dealing with trade issues, has led international efforts to combat illicit markets, specifically trade in counterfeit goods. The landmark Agreement of Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS), passed in 1995, applies to all 153 WTO members and establishes minimum standards for intellectual property rights, including trademarks, copyrights, and patents, to be enforced by member states. Covering a broad range of sectors and goods—such as electronics, knock-off designer apparel, and art—TRIPS is the most comprehensive multilateral agreement addressing counterfeit goods to date. The UN's World Intellectual Property Organization helps the WTO implement TRIPS by managing an international registry of patents, providing translations and notifications of national regulations, and supporting international technical cooperation. Specifically, the Madrid Agreement Concerning the International Registration of Marks along with its protocol allows countries to register trademarks in multiple countries through a single application that broadens coverage, but also lacks an enforcement mechanism. At the same time, TRIPS relies on UN member states to enforce intellectual property laws, which has led to serious gaps due to lack of political will or capability. Recent efforts to strengthen enforcement mechanisms have met stiff resistance. Signed by thirty-one state parties—including Australia, Canada, Japan, the United States, and the European Union—the 2011 Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement (ACTA) attempts to establish an international legal framework to address violations of intellectual property rights. However, ACTA has been criticized for violating freedom of expression and privacy, as well as excluding civil society organizations and developing countries from negotiations. In response to a petition signed by more than two million Europeans, the European Commission referred ACTA to the European Court of Justice to determine whether the agreement violates individual rights. Private-sector groups affected by illicit markets have also formed industry-specific trade associations, which have pushed for anti-counterfeiting legislation. Among the most active and influential of these organizations are the Motion Picture Association of America, Business Software Alliance, Recording Industry Association of America,Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America, and the Council of Fashion Designers of America. They lobby for anti-counterfeiting legislation and enforcement, publish data and reports, run public advocacy and education campaigns, and help their members investigate and prosecute violations. However, rights groups have criticized such organizations for wielding undue influence and pushing legislation that disproportionately benefits businesses at the expense of consumers. Counterfeit Medicines TRIPS coverage also extends to pharmaceutical patents. Although TRIPS requires all countries to adopt minimum standards, it does allow for some flexibility for developing countries through compulsory licensing agreements, a provision recently applied for the first time in India to produce a generic cancer drug. In 2001, the WTO Ministerial Conference adopted the Doha Declaration, affirming that TRIPS "does not and should not prevent members from taking measures to protect public health" by promoting access to affordable drugs. Despite these advances, the definition of counterfeit medicine remains unclear.Disagreement is widespread over the working definition of counterfeit drugs provided by the World Health Organization (WHO). Developing countries maintain that generic versions of brand-name drugs should not be considered counterfeit as they are essential to affordable health care. Many nations do not yet have legislation targeting counterfeit drugs, although there are signs of progress. In 2011, China and Nigeria agreed to a new bilateral initiative allowing regulators to jointly combat counterfeit drugs. Multilateral and regional organizations have taken steps to enforce anti–counterfeit medicine agreements. In 2006, the WHO launched the International Medical Products Anti-Counterfeiting Taskforce, the goal of which is to develop international and regional networks to facilitate information sharing on the counterfeit drug market, although it has yet to make a global impact due to resistance from several important developing countries. Interpol has also implemented several regional initiatives to combat counterfeit drugs and arrest traffickers: Operation Storm in southeast Asia, Operation Mamba in eastern Africa, and Operation Cobra in western Africa. Between January 2010 and October 2011, Interpol and local partners seized millions of pills and made hundreds of arrests, underscoring the need for continued multilateral intervention. Finally, in December 2010, the Council of Europe adopted the Convention on the Counterfeiting of Medical Products and Similar Crimes Involving Threats to Public Health, which criminalized the manufacturing and trade of counterfeit drugs. Experts have criticized the convention, however, for its vague definition of generic medicine—and have instead advocated for a legally binding treaty led by the WHO. Without an international treaty criminalizing counterfeit drugs, progress will be limited, because each region or country continues to operate on various definitions of what constitutes counterfeit medicine. The WHO executive board adopted a voluntary resolution on counterfeit medicine in February 2012, but a comprehensive and adequate treaty is still far off. Environmental Crime To fight environmental crime, the principal international treaty is the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). CITES is the strongest existing measure to protect the environment from exploitation; it proscribestrade in more than nine hundred animal and plant species in danger of extinction, and restricts trade in more than twenty-nine thousand additional species. Although it has created an important framework for efforts against environmental crime, CITES covers such a wide range of plant and animal species that it is virtually impossible to focus attention and enforce trade restrictions on all of them at once. The UN Environment Program (UNEP), the primary UN body for global environmental issues, supports CITES and related programmatic initiatives, but has a limited budget for these efforts. CITES is also supplemented by more than five hundred global and regional multilateral environmental treaties that deal with specific issue areas, including biodiversity, wildlife, pollution, use of chemicals, and waste disposal. The UN Convention Against Transnational Organized Crime, supported by the UN Office on Drugs and Crime(UNODC), also serves as a legal framework for combating illicit resource trafficking, although it is primarily limited to crimes committed by organized groups and does not specifically mention the environment. Laws to regulate illegal resource harvesting have not kept pace with environmental crime. A number of tree species are protected under CITES, but there is no existing comprehensive international agreement that regulates illegal logging. Experts argue[PDF] that CITES could be broadened to more adequately address illegal logging. The Forest Law Enforcement and Governance regional initiative, which convened producer and consumer countries in Asia, Africa, and Europe, attempted to raise awareness of illegal logging, but little progress has been made. Despite two other UN agreements to combat illegal fishing—the Conservation and Management of Straddling Fish Stocks and Highly Migratory Fish Stocks (Fish Stocks Agreement) and the Agreement on Port State Measures to Prevent, Deter and Eliminate Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated Fishing—serious gaps in enforcement remain (see Global Governance Monitor: Oceans for an in-depth discussion). International efforts to combat pollution and toxic waste dumping, on the other hand, have achieved marked success. The Basel Convention on the Control of Transboundary Movements of Hazardous Wastes and their Disposal, the Rotterdam Convention on the Prior Informed Consent Procedure for Certain Hazardous Chemicals and Pesticides in International Trade, and the Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutantstogether provide an international framework to regulate the movements and dumping of waste, as well as the use of specific chemicals. Maritime pollution is regulated by theInternational Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL). States are responsible for implementing and enforcing MARPOL to curb the most destructive forms of maritime pollution, including oil spills, particulate matter such as sulfur oxide and nitrous oxide, and greenhouse gas emissions. In response to the proliferation of environmental crime and limited enforcement, five international groups—CITES, Interpol, UNODC, the World Customs Organization, and the World Bank—formed the International Consortium on Combating Wildlife Crime(ICCW), which became operational in March 2011. ICCW hopes to mount a coordinated global effort against environmental crime by supporting national law enforcement and facilitating information sharing, but it is too early to judge progress. Organ Trafficking Organ trafficking has also become a serious problem. And while the Protocol to Prevent, Suppress, and Punish Trafficking in Persons (TIP protocol) identifies "the removal of organs" as a crime, many national governments have legal loopholes and outliers that allow for the activity to continue unchecked. In Iran, for example, kidney sales are legal and regulated; in India, the law outlaws all organ sales except for kidneys; and in China, it is illegal to buy or sell organs, although the government is allowed to harvest the organs of executed prisoners. A joint UN-Council of Europe study in 2009 called for [PDF] a new international treaty that would specifically address organ trafficking, including human trafficking for the removal of organs, which is a subset of a broader and more pervasive issue. Combating cyber crime: Advancing from anarchy, but constant challenges Cyber crime, which is estimated to cost the global economy between $114 billion and $1 trillion annually, comprises myriad illegal activities, including cyberattacks on governments or businesses, identity theft, and illegal hacking. As societies increasingly rely on the Internet, the need for robust measures to address cyber crime is clear. However, some experts believe that establishing a comprehensive, binding cyber crime convention may be impossible given fundamental differences in opinions between countries about the Internet. Other challenges include defining cyber crime and assigning responsibility for attacks orchestrated from within a country's territory. Even in existing initiatives, the definition of cyber crime and stipulations to fight it are not consistent, and too often cyber crime is conflated with cyberterrorism, cyber espionage, or cyber warfare. The most robust international accord that addresses cyber crime is the Council of Europe Convention on Cyber Crime. With thirty-two parties and fifteen signatories, it is the only international legally binding accord that governs the issue. Importantly, it defines cyber crime offenses such as data interference, child pornography, and illegal interception. The accord also includes a yearly consultation process for parties carried out through the Convention Committee on Cyber Crime. Testifying to the need for strong international cyber crime governance, the United States and a number of other countries outside the region have ratified the treaty; more nations are considering doing so. The convention is also the basis for other international standards on cyber crime. TheUnited Nations (UN) [PDF], Interpol [PDF], and various regional organizations have encouraged countries to model national legislation on the articles of the Council of Europe Convention on Cyber Crime and have supported acceding to it. Numerous countries, including hotbeds of cyber crime such as Nigeria, have updated [PDF] national legislation to conform to the treaty. However, many underdeveloped states do not have the institutional capacity to fulfill requirements, complicating efforts to harmonize domestic legislation. The convention on cyber crime also includes an additional protocol, which attempts to counter the use of the Internet as a medium to spread xenophobia and racism. Although the United Nations examined cyber crime and related issues in 2010, member states were unable to reach a consensus on whether to expand the Council of Europe Convention on Cyber Crime or to create a new global treaty. In many instances, calls for firmer global institutions and agreements to fight cyber crime are met with skepticism from online users and policymakers, who worry that cyber crime laws might limit freedom of speech and private-sector Internet use. Both the UN General Assembly and the Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC)—responsible for development issues—have introduced several resolutions on cyber crime, but the issue is low on their agenda. In this regard, the UN Commission on Crime Prevention and Criminal Justice has been important in bringing cyber crime to the attention of member states. Created in 1992 at the request of ECOSOC, the commission has increasingly raised the issue of cyber crime with other parts of the UN system. In 2011 it spearheaded a draft resolution urging countries to provide capacity-building assistance to fight cyber crime. One specialized agency in the UN, the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), has led [PDF] international information and communication technologies policy since 1865 (the body became a specialized UN agency in 1947). The ITU addresses the gamut of cyber crime problems, but its work on cyber crime has focused on data collection, research, and recommendations on building and harmonizing effective national legislation. The ITU also suffers from some important procedural weaknesses. Only UN plenary assemblies and world conferences can form ITU study groups to discuss relevant problems, but they meet only once every four years. Despite its flaws, the agency has launched some ambitious projects. One of its flagship projects, Child Online Protection, aims to protect children from malicious attacks in cyberspace. More recently, ITU joined forces with the UN Office on Drugs and Crime to assess specific countries' institutional capacities, review legislation, provide technical assistance, and offer training opportunities. Although it is still too early to determine its success, the collaboration paves the way for more partnerships within the UN, where work on cyber crime is often fragmented and lacks prioritization. Informal organizations and multilateral arrangements have established frameworks to facilitate the sharing of best practices and intelligence related to cyber crime. Interpol, along with its 190 member countries, relies on its I-24/7 worldwide communication system as well as its National Central Reference Points [PDF] network—a specialized group of investigators—to combat cyber crime. But even with these initiatives, many countries do not have adequate funding, enough cyber crime laws, or the institutional capacity to prevent, investigate, or prosecute cyber criminals. Furthermore, working in different jurisdictions to obtain evidence tends to be inefficient and slow. Numerous regional initiatives as well as nongovernmental organizations have also been established with the specific mission of preventing the exploitation of children through the Internet. Enforcement, though, remains limited by the inherent difficulties in tracing perpetrators of cyber crime, especially when occurring across borders and contrasting legal jurisdictions. One major multilateral initiative, the Lyon Group, was created by the Group of Eight(G8) in 1996. The Lyon Group gathers senior experts to discuss international crime issues and has a dedicated subgroup that addresses high-tech crime with the aim of helping law enforcement agencies enhance their strategies to prevent, investigate, and prosecute cyber crime. The G8 has also adopted forty operative recommendations to combat transnational organized crime, and all members are required to set up a 24/7 network of point of contacts to address computer crimes and requests. Still, current technologies do not have the capacity to fully track cyber crime, which hinders the subgroup's effectiveness. At the regional level, organizations and ad hoc groups have attempted to tackle cyber crime. For instance, the Organization of American States (OAS) established a working group on cyber crime, which spearheaded a compilation of existing cyber crime legislation in OAS member states. The working group, backed by a recommendation from all OAS attorney generals and ministers of justice, has also requested that OAS member states consider applying the principles of the Council of Europe's Convention on Cyber Crime. Similarly, the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation group has taken on the issue, with an action plan [PDF] to combat cyber crime that includes personal information protections, cybersecurity capacity building, and raising awareness against cyber crime. Nevertheless, cyber crime rates continue to climb in every region around the world. Combating human trafficking and migrant smuggling: Record progress, but inadequate enforcement Human trafficking is the only illicit activity classified as a crime against humanity. Although it manifests itself in many forms, forced labor and sexual exploitation are the primary types. Migrant smuggling is considered distinct from human trafficking, both legally and conceptually. In practice, however, it is difficult to differentiate between the acts of migrant smuggling and trafficking. Both target the poor and deceive or violently abuse victims. Some migrants become victims of trafficking, and smugglers may also serve as traffickers. Global governance efforts and tools to combat human trafficking and migrant smuggling are generally uncoordinated, underresourced, and lacking in the political will to exert meaningful change. To date, no permanent mechanism for collecting and evaluating comprehensive data on human trafficking or migrant smuggling has been established, which presents a significant hurdle for international organizations and national governments to devise effective policies and strategies. Until recently, no international agreement defined human trafficking or laid out a strategy to address it. Heightened international attention in the 1990s, however, paved the way in the United Nations (UN) for the Protocol to Prevent, Suppress, and Punish Trafficking in Persons (TIP protocol) to the UN Convention Against Transnational Organized Crime(UNTOC), which entered into force in December 2003. To date, 142 countries have ratified the TIP protocol and 128 countries have passed laws prohibiting human trafficking. The TIP protocol broadly defined human trafficking under international law as the "recruitment, transportation, harboring, or receipt of persons, by means of… forms of coercion… for the purpose of exploitation." Its ultimate goal was to harmonize domestic legislation to criminalize the phenomenon. Similarly, "migrant smuggling" was also undefined until the Protocol Against the Smuggling of Migrants by Land, Sea, and Air (Smuggling of Migrants protocol) to the UNTOC entered into force in January 2004. It identifies the crime as the "procurement, in order to obtain… financial or other material benefit, of the illegal entry of a person into a state." Ratified by 129 member states, the protocol does not aim to curb illegal immigration, but instead to undermine organized smugglers. Some experts have argued[PDF], however, that the protocol does not go far enough to protect the rights of migrants. The protocols are the strongest measures to date on human trafficking and migrant smuggling. In particular, passage of the TIP protocol prompted the proliferation of regional conventions decrying human trafficking. The European Union ratified the Brussels Declaration on Preventing and Combating Trafficking in Human Beings in 2002; the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN) passed the Declaration Against Trafficking in Persons, Particularly Women and Children in 2004; and the African Unionfollowed suit in 2006 and enacted the Ouagadougou Action Plan to Combat Trafficking in Human Beings, Especially Women and Children; among others. Many of these regional conventions, however, are not legally binding on member states, and have thus proved unable to effect significant change on the ground. Regional action on migrant smuggling has been mostly limited to extending general protections to migrants. For example, the Organization of American States' Inter-American Program for the Promotion and Protection of the Human Rights of Migrants, Including Migrant Workers and their Families and the ASEAN Declaration on the Protection and Promotion of the Rights of Migrant Workers focus on the basic rights of migrant workers, with sporadic references to the issue of migrant smuggling. Despite halting normative progress among regional organizations, enforcement has floundered at the national level. Many countries only recently passed laws codifying human trafficking as a crime, and in some countries such legislation is wholly absent. Definitions of the crime vary widely; many national laws are confined to trafficking of women, or only recognize sexual exploitation of trafficking victims and do not address other forms such as labor trafficking. Even if states have enacted requisite legislation, 40 percent [PDF] of these countries did not produce a single conviction between 2003 and 2008. Many states have recently criminalized [PDF] migrant smuggling activities, but struggle to enforce the statutes. Of the few governments that try to combat migrant smuggling, resources are often directed to border controls rather than long-term measures. Many states do not see smuggled migrants as victims, but rather as illegal immigrants. The United States plays a major role in global efforts to combat human trafficking. The U.S. Congress passed the Victims of Trafficking and Violence Protection Act (TVPA) in October 2000, which provided resources to monitor and reduce human trafficking. However, the TVPA expired at the end of 2011 and is yet to be reauthorized due to partisan deadlock over budget allocations. The U.S. State Department also produces[PDF] an annual trafficking report ranking 184 governments—including itself—on its actions against trafficking. Although somewhat politicized, the reports are a useful means of tracking implementation of international norms. Other organizations, such as the UN Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization and International Organization for Migration are also working to compile accurate data. In one high-profile initiative, the UN Global Initiative to Fight Human Trafficking and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) partnered with other UN agencies to aggregate data. Though moderately successful, the project ended in 2009 and the information will soon be outdated. The UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) is charged with monitoring and implementing the UNTOC protocols, which it does by assisting countries with drafting legislation and creating national antitrafficking strategies. Its work is supplemented by the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights' (OHCHR) special rapporteur on trafficking in persons, special rapporteur on contemporary forms of slavery, and the special rapporteur on the human rights of migrants, who undertake country visits, monitor activities, and produce annual reports on their issue areas. In October 2011, the UNODC and the OHCHR joined forces to enhance cooperation, showing progress in efforts to streamline interagency work. Countless international, regional, and local NGOs are dedicated to raising awareness of human trafficking. Amnesty International, Mercy Corps, and Human Rights Watch often publish country reports on trafficking, and the Global Alliance Against Traffic in Womenhas a broad membership of more than one hundred affiliated NGOs. Many of the NGOs focus attention on women and sexual slavery, often at the expense of labor trafficking issues. Child trafficking, of course, remains sensitive and controversial. Although covered in the TIP protocol, some experts have argued that child trafficking deserves a separate accord. International instruments addressing the issue of child labor include the Worst Forms of Child Labor Convention, which defines "worst forms" as the sale and trafficking of children, forced labor, and recruitment for use in armed conflict. In addition, the Optional Protocol to the Convention on the Rights of the Child on the Involvement of Children in Armed Conflict specifically addresses the recruitment and exploitation of child soldiers. Despite these landmark measures, efforts to coordinate child labor and trafficking efforts more broadly remain inadequate. U.S. and International Transnational Organized Crime Policy Issues Should the international community shift its focus to a broader, health-based approach to cut demand for illegal drugs? Yes: Proponents [PDF] of a dramatic reset to fight narcotrafficking worldwide argue that attacking producers, suppliers, and transporters of illegal drugs unfairly burdens developing countries, increases the profitability of selling illicit drugs, and also severely raises the levels of violence associated with the trade. In 2011, the United Nations Global Commission on Drug Policy concluded that the U.S.-led war on drugs had failed, despite $2.5 trillion spent over forty years, precisely because the strategy focuses too heavily on criminalizing illegal drugs. It recommends a shift away from strict prohibition regimes in favor of public health policies to decrease demand, prevent drug abuse, and treat addiction. Ultimately, attempting to eradicate production of drug crops like coca leaf or opium poppy only displaces the threat and leaves impoverished farmers with poorly implemented alternative livelihood strategies. Furthermore, methamphetamine use has skyrocketed in the past five years, which may account for much of the reduction in use of opiates and cocaine. Given resource constraints, law enforcement agencies must also target drug traffickers consecutively, which creates a feeding frenzy as groups fight to replace the arrested group and leads to exponential violence without decreasing the threat to the community. Finally, by illegalizing supply without devoting equal resources to cutting demand, the current strategy provides an extraordinary incentive to traffickers and producers to provide the drugs to users who are willing to pay high prices because the drugs are hard to come by. No: Opponents of legalization argue that the greatest costs of drug use are not caused by prohibition regimes, but rather by the drugs themselves. Reducing demand is not possible without limiting drug availability. "When illegal drugs are readily available, the likelihood increases that they will be abused," explains the U.S. Office of National Drug Control Policy. When China was not able to regulate the supply of opium in 1900, for example, fully 25 percent of China's population was addicted to opium. Aggregated estimates demonstrate [PDF] that the current strategy of strictly punishing the production or transport of opiates, cocaine, and amphetamine-type stimulants has decreased instances of their abuse by 40 percent over the past century—implying that prohibition regimes have markedly decreased drug use around the world. Furthermore, opponents say that relaxing controls on supply and use of drugs will not reduce violence because criminality stems from the need to earn quick, large profits outside the law rather than the nature of the illicit product being sold. Drug traffickers "would simply find another commodity to export." In addition, any relaxation of drug controls would still leave the drugs more heavily taxed or illegal—and therefore not disincentivize illicit trade in them, but only make them more readily available. Finally, theories that the government would benefit from taxing less dangerous drugs like marijuana, and shifting to prevention strategies instead, overlook the concerns that governments might be motivated to disregard the damage of addiction since higher levels of addiction would earn them more money. Should the United States sign the Firearms Protocol? Yes: The UN Protocol Against the Illicit Manufacturing of and Trafficking in Firearms, Their Parts and Components and Ammunition (Firearms Protocol) to the UN Convention Against Transnational Organized Crime requires countries to adopt responsible legislation to prevent criminals from obtaining guns and implement controls to be able to trace firearms after they are manufactured. The United States helped draft the Firearms Protocol, but has not yet become a party to it. Doing so would not threaten the legal sale and purchase of guns in the United States, nor threaten Second Amendment constitutional rights to bear arms because it seeks only to decrease illicit trade in firearms through marking weapons, maintaining records on gun purchases, and improving licensing systems to prevent known criminals from purchasing weapons. Licit trade would thus not be curtailed. It would, however, significantly decrease the illegal sale of weapons bought in the United States and then sold to cartels that are wreaking havoc in Mexico and Central America—as well as decrease the illicit flows from Central Europe that fuel African civil wars. No: Opponents to the Firearms Protocol believe that the language is vague, and could be progressively interpreted to curtail individual rights to own guns in the United States. In addition, the protocol does not regulate state-to-state transfers of weapons, which significantly contribute to weapon flows fuelling intrastate conflicts. Opponents of the protocol therefore perceive that the ultimate goal of the protocol is to restrict civilian ownership of firearms. Some have even argued that the right to protect oneself by purchasing a personal firearm is a human right, and should therefore not be limited, no matter how well-intentioned the Firearms Protocol may be. Should the United States increase the use of unilateral sanctions on transnational organized crime groups? Yes: The use of economic sanctions against transnational organized crime (TOC) groups are an important recognition of the need to employ innovative strategies to target nonstate actors. Although terrorist groups and TOC groups do not possess similar goals, the structural similarities of these fluid networks imply that analogous mechanisms will be useful to fight both. The executive order freezes the assets in the United States of any individuals that are listed on the order's annex, as well as freezes the assets of U.S. persons(citizen, resident, or person physically located in the United States) who conduct financial transactions with a designated group. The sanctions will impose a much-needed limit on the financial gains of TOC groups, argue supporters of the move. The sanctions also bear weight because violators can be fined up to $1 million or sentenced to twenty years in prison, or both. Furthermore, under the executive order, the U.S. secretary of the treasury is granted the power to impose sanctions on other groups, facilitating an adaptive process of punishing groups that emerge. No: Though economic sanctions appear to be a sharp tool against organized crime groups, in reality, the groups earn billions from trafficking in weapons and people, and other crimes. As a result, sanctions will not significantly cripple their operations or deter people from engaging in criminal behavior. Furthermore, foreign governments may lack the capacity or will to cooperate with U.S. efforts. For example, Japan reacted to the recent U.S. sanctions on Japanese yakuza with "shock and shame," which will decrease the impact of U.S. economic sanctions on the group. It will also hinder the United States' ability to identify further criminals on whom to impose sanctions because they rely on Japanese government intelligence. In addition, the targeted groups are "large and amorphous," and will further burden U.S. and international businesses with cumbersome due diligence responsibilities. Moreover, the strategy aims to root out illicit networks with law enforcement, rather than cut demand for their illicit services or use more comprehensive strategies to fight them. Any success in debilitating one criminal group, will only lead another to take its place. Should the United States pursue a binding international convention related to cyber crime? Yes: Proponents of a worldwide binding cyber crime convention claim that country-specific mandates will not address the threat because it is a quintessential transnational threat that requires global cooperation . The Internet is an open network and crimes can be perpetrated from within any country. More so than other crimes, the perpetrators of cyber crime directly and instantaneously attack people in foreign jurisdictions, and often target people in multiple countries at once. Cyber criminals can also act with extraordinary speed, increasing the need for swift judicial cooperation among multiple countries to identify criminals and shut down operations in a timely matter. Extensive and integrated global cooperation is imperative to combat the threat. Bilateral arrangements between law enforcement or judicial agencies cannot keep up with cyber criminals, who operate without the impediment of national borders. A global convention would provide regulatory guidelines, a clearer definition of what constitutes cyber crime, and provide mechanisms for much-needed capacity building to help poor nations confront cyber crime. In addition, supporters believe a binding global treaty is feasible. The Council of Europe Convention on Cyber Crime, has been ratified and signed by countries outside of the European continent, for example. No: Opponents of a binding international cyber crime convention argue that the inherent difficulty of investigating cyber crime would render enforcement of a potential convention nearly impossible. Many cyber crime attacks are never detected [PDF], and cyber criminals are able to mask their identity with relative ease. Moreover, monitoring nations' compliance with a global cyber crime convention is unrealistic as the technology used to conduct cyber crime—such as computer viruses, worms, denial of service attacks, scripts—changes [PDF] so rapidly. In addition, efforts to control cyber crime threaten freedom of speech and open the door to invasions of private citizens' privacy, as well as impose limits on the sharing of information via the internet. Enforcement of anti–cyber crime regulations would almost certainly impose [PDF] heavy burdens on the private sector, and opponents of a global accord argue that independent businesses and citizens are better placed to regulate cyber crime themselves. For example, banks have the motivation and funds to invest in protecting their systems and international regulations would do little to improve on their efforts. Should the International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG) model be expanded for broader anticorruption efforts? Yes: Supporters of CICIG argue that it is one of the most successful anticorruption initiatives, and should be replicated outside Guatemala or expanded into a regional model. CICIG was first initiated [PDF] by the Guatemalan human rights ombudsman and subsequently earned support from the Guatemalan "government, civil society, institutions for the defense of human rights, UN agencies in Guatemala, and the churches" [PDF]. Because of this local support, CICIG has been better integrated [PDF] into the domestic judicial system. UN support for CICIG, and its hybrid structure that includes international investigators and prosecutors, are also innovative mechanisms that increased its effectiveness and legitimacy. By 2010, CICIG cooperation with Guatemalan prosecutors and investigators had led to the arrest of a former president for embezzlement, two former national police chiefs for drug connections, former defense officials for fraud, as well as ousted thousands of policemen, ten prosecutors, three supreme court justices, and an attorney general. Advocates of CICIG have lauded the program for its aggressive anticorruption efforts and for raising public awareness of organized crime. In 2010, Honduras and El Salvador consulted with the United States to tentatively establish country-specific models based on CICIG. Although the proposal has yet to come to fruition, supporters argue that it is the most effective method for combating corruption to date, and should be expanded to the region. No: Critics argue that the CICIG model is fundamentally flawed and unsustainable for several reasons. First, CICIG was formed at the request of the Guatemalan government; it is unlikely that other countries known for similarly high levels of corruption would voluntarily invite the UN to encroach on their national sovereignty. Second, the model is predicated on strong cooperation between the UN and the national government, but CICIG faced significant domestic resistance in Guatemala. The former head of CICIG resigned in 2010, arguing that the Guatemalan government had not fulfilled promises to reform the justice system, particularly its failure to adopt stronger anticrime and anticorruption legislation. The Commission suffered from poor oversight, and has conducted investigations in cases where "it has no business." The program has also been accused of interfering with Guatemala's justice agenda rather than helping bolster it and has not managed to get anticorruption legislation through the Guatemalan legislature. In addition, some contend that the body has disproportionately focused on high-profile arrests and prosecutions, skirting its mandate to transfer technical capacities to Guatemalan officials, which is critical to long-term sustainability and future progress. As a result of these serious flaws, CICIG was less popular than the corrupt Guatemalan attorney-general's office in October 2011 polls. Recent Developments January 2014: UNODC launches anti-counterfeit campaign The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) launched a global campaign to educate consumers about the highly lucrative trade of counterfeit goods. The campaign, titled "Don't Buy Into Organized Crime," aims to raise awareness about the economic, social, and environmental impact of the illicit counterfeit goods trade and the transnational organized crime that such goods may fund. UNODC estimates that the counterfeit business amounts to $250 billion each year. A report [PDF] released by the campaign highlights the connections between counterfeit goods, corruption, and organized criminal groups, such as the Triads and Yakuza in Asia. January 2014: China crushes six tons of confiscated elephant ivory In a show of its commitment to international efforts to combat the illegal trade of ivory, China held a public ceremony to destroy six tons of ivory seized by Chinese authorities. The event came on the heels of a similar event in the United States, where U.S. officials crushed six tons of ivory in November 2013. Although the ivory trade was banned by the UN Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) in 1989, the illicit trade of ivory persists: according to a 2013 United Nations report [PDF], elephant poaching and ivory trafficking have increased in recent years. Some experts have criticized the destruction of ivory stockpiles, noting that these symbolic acts do little to combat the ivory trade and may in fact have the unintended consequence of increasing demand. January 2014: Marijuana legalized in Colorado On January 1, 2014, a Colorado state law legalizing the recreational use of marijuana went into effect. The first of its kind in the United States, the law permits state-licensed marijuana retailers to sell up to one ounce of marijuana to residents of Colorado who are 21 or older. Although cannabis remains illegal under U.S. federal law, the Obama administration has indicated that states will be given the freedom to determine their own laws on recreational and marijuana. Similar developments are taking place in Washington state, where retailers will be authorized to sell marijuana for recreational use later in 2014. Some experts contend that the legalization of marijuana in the United States will undercut Mexican drug cartels' profits, while others doubt that Colorado's statute will have any significant impact on transnational drug trafficking. June 2013: Microsoft and FBI hack back In its effort to disrupt cybercrime, Microsoft took part in "Operation Citadel" to disrupt more than a thousand botnets."Botnet" is a term that refers to a network of computers that have been targeted by malicious software (malware) that allows criminals to commit crimes—e.g., spread viruses, attack other computers, commit fraud—over the internet without the users' awareness. The botnets in question are allegedly responsible for $500 million in losses to financial institutions, banks, and consumers and are composed of over five million personal computers. Operation Citadel was supported by the FBI and other government agencies. April 2013: Wildlife crime and illegal forestry A United Nations conference in Vienna suggested that wildlife crime and illegal forestry has become the fourth-largest transnational crime in the world behind illicit trade in drugs, arms, and human beings, respectively. While the World Wildlife Fund estimates that the global trade is worth $17 billion annually, the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime suggests that the illegal trade in wildlife and wood-based products in the Asia-Pacific region alone is worth $19.5 billion. April 2013: Sudanese ammunition linked to Ivorian civil war According to a United Nations report, army forces under the command of former Ivorian president Laurent Gbagbo used ammunition rounds produced in the Sudan during the four-month long civil war in the country. The United Nations Operation in Cote d'Ivoire (UNOCI) contends that these rounds were likely trafficked into the country following French and UN intervention on the side of newly installed president Outtara. If proven, the trafficking of the weapons would represent a breach of the arms embargo first imposed in 2004 on the Ivory Coast. April 2013: Transnational crime in East Asia The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime completed its first comprehensive studyon transnational organized crime threats in East Asia and the Pacific in April 2013. The report, which studies twelve selected contraband markets including trafficking in humans, narcotics, stolen goods, and environmental products, found that these markets are worth $90 billion each year. A third of this value stems from drug trafficking with sixty-five metric tons of heroin worth $16.3 billion flowing through the region in 2011. The report also highlights the growing threat posed by fraudulent medicines and environmental crime related to extractive industries. Options for Strengthening the Global Regime Against Transnational Crime Introduction U.S. and international action are needed to manage the threat of transnational organized crime. These recommendations reflect the views of Stewart M. Patrick, director of the International Institutions and Global Governance program, and James Cockayne, codirector of the Center on Global Counterterrorism Cooperation. In the near term, the United States and its partners should pursue the following initiatives to bolster global anticrime efforts. Improve data with a trust fund for independent research The United States and its partners require more reliable data on transnational crime to appropriately allocate resources where they will achieve maximum impact—and reduce spending on ineffective programs. To accomplish this, the United States should work with likeminded governments to establish a United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime(UNODC) trust fund to improve data collection on a range of transnational criminal issues. UNODC currently compiles global statistics on drugs, human trafficking, and corruption, but the mechanisms are flawed due to limited in-country resources,manipulation of data, and low levels of participation from local institutions. The trust fund can be used to build the technical expertise of local staff that collect and analyze the data, and create a mechanism for ongoing training as noted in a report [PDF] by the United Nations Commission on Narcotic Drugs. An effective example for data analysis that could serve as a model is the "crime observatories [PDF]" program, managed by the International Center for the Prevention of Crime, which aim to improve the analysis on criminal data. Draw on lessons from counterterrorism efforts The U.S. experience fighting global terrorist networks since 9/11 can provide important lessons on how to weaken transnational organized crime groups. The United States should press to apply to transnational crime successful initiatives from the counterterrorism regime, such as the systems of joint threat analysis and international and public-private relationships, that the United States built to tackle the threat of terrorism. The U.S. government has already recognized how some counterterror strategies can apply to anticrime efforts, like the use of sanctions against criminal networks that resembled sanctions on al-Qaeda. It should push for broader international cooperation to reinforce their impact. In addition, the Financial Action Task Force recently combined its standards for money laundering and terrorist financing, which will effectively require states to improve general anti–money laundering regulations in order to comply with UN Security Council resolutions on counterterrorist financing. The United States should both revise domestic frameworks to comply with the updated standards, and insist that other nations follow suit. Finally, the United States should elevate the importance of combating international criminal networks in diplomatic relationships with existing allies in the "global war on terror," noting that the two are increasingly interconnected, as both sets of illicit actors increasingly form tactical alliances and appropriate one another's methodologies. Bolster anti–money laundering regulations The International Monetary Fund and World Bank estimate that between $2 and $3 trillion is laundered each year. But worldwide, only $170 million is detected and stopped annually. There are a number of areas where the U.S. government could work more closely with the financial sector to crack down on money laundering and address its intertwining with politics. Positive steps would include closer scrutiny of banking practices of public officials globally, as well as partnerships to develop more effective supervision of informal remittance networks and money transfer systems. Furthermore, current anti–money laundering standards in the United States require banks to know their customers. But evidence of significant illicit transactions suggests that these regulations need to be implemented more faithfully. The United States should also work more assiduously with international partners to clamp down on the use of offshore tax havens by U.S. corporations or individuals, since such havens are often used to launder the proceeds of illicit trade. In the longer term, the United States and its international partners should consider the following steps: Streamline U.S. government anticrime capacity building The United States should streamline existing capacity-building efforts, which are currently scattered across numerous domestic and international agencies. Currently, the U.S. Department of State bureaus of international narcotics and law andcounterterrorism, the Drug Enforcement Administration, the U.S. Agency for International Development, the National Institute for Justice, and Department of Defense—in addition to an array of international programs—all conduct operations to bolster the ability of developing countries to fight transnational crime. Building on the 2011 Strategy to Combat Transnational Organized Crime, the U.S. government should compile a database mapping its efforts to counter transnational crime across regions and issue areas, and use the results to improve coordination and reduce duplication of efforts. Support evidence-based drug policy The United States should support an evidence-based approach to tackling illicit drugs—and end its inflexible commitment to prohibition regimes that prioritize supply reduction over analysis of pricing incentives, strategies for cutting demand, and harm reduction programs. For example, heroin substitution programs have "led [PDF] to an overall reduction in the number of people addicted…[and] reduced levels of other criminal activity associated with the market." Generally speaking, global prohibition regimes perversely inflate the price of illegal drugs, creating tremendous market incentives for people to produce and transport these forbidden commodities. Studies [PDF] of alternative anti-drug policies have often proved not only successful in tempering incentives to sell illicit drugs, but have also not resulted in increased drug use. At times, these policies have actually decreased violence more than law enforcement interventions. These were the conclusions of the Global Commission on Drug Policy, whose nineteen members included a former U.S. secretary of state and former U.S. chairman of the Federal Reserve, and four former heads of state. The U.S. government must engage in a more open debate about policies to manage drug abuse. Combat criminal impunity In countries with fractured judicial systems, weak rule of law, or widespread corruption, violent criminal organizations can operate with impunity. The United States and its international partners should explore the possibility of setting up a complementary, international judicial framework that could prosecute criminals if local judicial systems are deemed incapable of holding a fair trial. The United Nations should revisit relevant early debates about the International Criminal Court (ICC), which some originally proposed should also try drug traffickers. Even as human trafficking has been labeled a crime against humanity, and as the number of people murdered by criminal organizations surges in parts of the world, many criminal groups operate with impunity [PDF]. In these instances, the United States should consider an international alternative to local courts. This might include prosecuting egregious violent crime under the mandate of the ICC, establishing a distinct body to try such cases, or setting up hybrid international-national courts.
  • International Organizations
    R2P on Life Support: Humanitarian Norms vs. Practical Realities in Syria
    Thirty-five years ago, U.S. National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski famously declared that the doctrine of détente “lies buried in the sands of Ogaden.” By exporting revolution to the Horn of Africa, he implied, Moscow had abandoned norms of peaceful coexistence, as well as prospects for the SALT treaty. One wonders if a more recent would-be doctrine, the “responsibility to protect” (R2P), is destined to suffer a similar fate. Two years ago, the UN Security Council seemed to vindicate this new norm, by authorizing “all necessary means” to protect Libyan civilians against strongman Muammar al-Qaddafi. Today, R2P clings to life support in Syria, as the civilian body count there mounts to appalling levels. Many commentators, including this one, welcomed the Security Council’s authorization of intervention in Libya as the first legitimated use of armed force under R2P. UNSC Resolution 1973, as well as historic support from the Arab League, provided legitimacy to a NATO-led intervention that reversed Qaddafi’s depredations and, ultimately, provided cover for Libyan rebels to remove him from power. At the time, the intervention seemed to tick all the boxes: the situation was grave, the interveners’ cause was just, and their response was proportional. After a lengthy air campaign, in which no NATO troops lost their lives, Qaddafi had been toppled from power. At the time, it was easy to overlook the fact that this Western interpretation was not widely shared—and that the Libyan case had unique features that were unlikely to be easily replicated in other settings. These features included a dictator despised in the Arab world, a country of minimal strategic importance, a small national population, and topography conducive to an aerial campaign. Diplomatic fallout began quickly. Russia and China, which had abstained from the resolution, soon objected that the NATO-led coalition had transformed the UN mandate into a license for “regime change.” Such a claim was either naïve or cynical, since all involved in Security Council deliberations should have been well aware of the expansive implications of authorizing “all necessary means,” as well as the unlikelihood that Qaddafi himself would agree to a negotiated agreement with rebel forces. Nevertheless, the complaint resonated in many corners of the globe. The African Union (AU) also emerged as a primary critic, depicting the intervention as yet another ill-advised imperialist venture on the continent. This reflected less knee-jerk opposition to R2P—after all, the AU’s constitutive act declares “non-indifference” to the internal affairs of other countries, and its Peace and Security Council has endorsed the principle of intervention in cases of genocide and mass atrocities—than pique at being sidelined diplomatically. By brushing aside AU efforts at diplomatic mediation, the Western powers reinforced African insistence that future interventions on the continent be endorsed by the African Union. The chaotic aftermath of the Libyan intervention also left a sour taste in the mouths of many UN member states. Indeed, independent militias continue to run rampant in parts of Libya two years after the intervention.  Moreover, the collapse of Libyan domestic security permitted a wave of weaponry to wash over neighboring countries—contributing to instability in the Sahel. In Mali, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and extremist Tuareg groups exploited this flow of material to launch their bloody insurgency, at one point controlling nearly half of the country. Even before the civil war in Syria, then, the implementation of R2P in Libya had generated buyer’s remorse among many governments that had endorsed it at the 2005 UN World Summit. In an effort to rescue the concept, Brazil proposed that UN member states embrace the related concept of “responsibility while protecting” (RWP) in November 2011. Under this framework, the UN Security Council would undertake military intervention only as a last resort, after weighing the balance of likely consequences, and ensure that any force used was proportionate to the gravity of the situation. It would also oblige the Security Council to adopt a formal monitoring and review mechanism where states would discuss and debate the implementation of any ongoing R2P action. The proposed RWP scheme is not without problems: the “last resort” requirement is at odds with the reality that early, preventive action is often the best way to head off atrocities. The Permanent Five (P5) may also balk at committing to an ongoing monitoring mechanism for R2P-mandated missions. Nevertheless, the Brazilian proposal offers a potential bridge to bring skeptical governments back to the R2P fold. As such, it merits careful U.S. consideration rather than dismissal. It is the bloody situation in Syria, however, that has fostered disillusionment with (though not yet the demise of) R2P. The most obvious lesson to be drawn is that the implementation of R2P will inevitably be selective. If one or more of the P5—in this case Russia—sees a significant national interest in protecting the offending government, the UNSC will be blocked. Interventionist powers will then face the unpalatable choice of doing nothing or (as the United States did in Kosovo with NATO) pursuing a surrogate form of multilateral legitimacy for coercive action. Second, the Syrian case demonstrates the difficulty of applying R2P when the conflict in question has evolved from a government making war on unarmed civilians into a full-blown civil war in which both regime and rebel forces commit atrocities. When opposing sides are wearing neither white nor black hats but varying shades of grey, the threshold criteria for R2P intervention—and the means by which it should be implemented—become even cloudier than normal. Third, the situation in Syria underscores the difficulty of reconciling humanitarian ideals with geopolitical concerns. The Obama administration, from the President on down, has often denied this distinction, on the grounds that mass atrocities create dangerous spillover consequences for entire regions (with the Great Lakes region of Africa a case in point), as well as fomenting forces of (and providing havens for) extremism. Perhaps. But the strategic, economic, and human consequences of a U.S.-led military intervention in Syria are hard to predict. The costs—for regional instability, budgetary overstretch, and U.S. lives—could be gargantuan. And they need to be weighed against the likelihood (and benefits) of “success”—something the administration has yet to define. This cost-benefit analysis must also include an honest assessment of the expenses associated with “the responsibility to rebuild” the post-intervention society (something the Bush administration notoriously neglected to do in Iraq). It would be premature to describe Syria as the death knell of R2P. But it is clear that much of the idealism surrounding the UN’s unanimous endorsement of the norm eight years ago has dissipated, buried in the Libyan Desert and the blood-soaked hills of Syria.
  • Wars and Conflict
    The Global Regime for Armed Conflict
    This page is part of the Global Governance Monitor. Scope of the Challenge Preventing armed conflict, keeping peace, and rebuilding war-torn states remain among the most intractable challenges facing the international community. Each year, at least 250,000 people die in armed conflicts, most of which occur within, rather than between, states and in the past three years an especially brutal civil war in Syria has killed upwards of 100,000 people. Armed conflict and its aftermath corrode virtually every aspect of society: law and order, human rights, socioeconomic development, education, basic health services, and the environment. The global economic costs of insecurity generated by conflicts amount to an estimated $400 billion each year. At the same time, conflict prevention, mitigation, and response are global concerns, because instability often spills across borders and triggers piracy, drug trafficking, small-arms sales, environmental exploitation, and terrorism. After the shocking mass atrocities in Rwanda and Bosnia in the 1990s, the United Nations (UN) and several regional organizations mandated new initiatives to address violence. The UN reforms improved its ability to monitor political developments, plan and support peacekeeping operations, and coordinate mechanisms charged with peace-building. Meanwhile, new arrangements within the European Union (EU), African Union (AU), Organization of American States (OAS), and other regional organizations have increased responsiveness to instability and violence within their regions—albeit with varying levels of engagement, capabilities, and effectiveness. But these international instruments have had a mixed record of success. In many cases, international institutions charged with promoting peace and stability lack the political consensus and financial resources to fulfill their mandates. Moreover, these institutions remain disproportionately reactive, and often neglect conflict prevention as a critical tool for managing armed conflicts. Most peacekeeping efforts still have insufficient manpower, money, and equipment to meet their overstretched mandates. And the international community too frequently fails to foster peace and recovery in war-torn countries. Multilateral action can be an effective response to outbreaks of armed conflict, but international and regional approaches need to be enhanced and coordinated if they are to effectively address the range of conflict management problems facing the global community. Strengths & Weaknesses Overall assessment: Unprecedented attention and reform, yet patchy focus and uncertain goals In recent years, multilateral institutions and governments have devoted increased attention to the challenges of international conflict prevention, peacekeeping, and postconflict peace-building. Over the past two decades, the international community has developed new tools and institutions to prevent and manage conflict. Partly as a result of such efforts, interstate and intrastate conflicts have declined by over 60 percent from 1992. Although high-profile conflicts in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan consumed the majority of international attention and resources over the past decade, there have been notable successes involving multilateral conflict prevention, peacekeeping, and peace-building efforts in less prominent conflicts, such as East Timor and Liberia. Yet the international instruments designed to prevent the outbreak of conflict or end fighting remain unwieldy and, at times, ineffective. Among the actors that exist to end conflict, the UN plays an indispensable role. Created in 1945 to "save future generations from the scourge of war," the UN enjoys universal legitimacy and legal status, thanks to its charter. During the Cold War, however, the UN found its practical role in international peace and security circumscribed. But the end of the bipolar confrontation and the increase in the number of intrastate conflicts in the early 1990s rejuvenated the UN's role in global conflict management. In 1992, UN secretary-general Boutros Boutros-Ghali released An Agenda for Peace, which outlined how the UN should assess and reform conflict prevention, mediation, and peacekeeping in a post-Cold War context. It also introduced the concept of postconflict peace-building to support conflict resolution and prevent a relapse into violence. Over the ensuing decades, the UN has created or strengthened many of its programs, departments, and agencies charged with anticipating, preventing, and responding to conflict. Within the UN, the Security Council (UNSC) is charged with the primary responsibility of maintaining international peace and security, including the authority to establish peacekeeping operations, impose international sanctions, and authorize military action. However, due to deep-seated political and ideological differences among its permanent members, the Security Council is often slow to respond to unfolding crises. The UN also manages conflict through its secretariat, which includes the Department of Peacekeeping Operations (created in 1992) and the Department of Field Support (created in 2007). The Department of Political Affairs (established in 1992) is the secretariat's focal point for conflict prevention, mitigation, and response. Other UN departments, agencies, and programs have also adapted their mandates to operate more effectively in conflict environments. These include the UN Development Program (UNDP) and its Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Response; the Office of the Coordinator for Humanitarian Affairs; the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees; the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights; the Office for Disarmament Affairs; and the World Food Program. In the wake of the genocide and atrocities in Rwanda and Bosnia in the 1990s, the UN implemented a series of new initiatives and reforms to improve conflict management. These included targeted sanctions to deter or end violence, expert panels to monitor the effectiveness of targeted sanctions on peace spoilers, and an increase in the use of special envoys and special representatives to the secretary-general. These advancements have been assisted by a relatively active [PDF] UN Security Council willing to authorize peacekeeping missions and sanctions to mitigate inter- and intrastate conflict. Most recently, in 2005, the UN created the Peacebuilding Commission (PBC) to foster integrated strategies for sustainable peace and recovery in the aftermath of armed conflict by securing resources and coordinating political, security, and development actors. After seven years, however, the PBC only operates in six countries. Regional organizations such as the African Union, North Atlantic Treaty Organization(NATO), European Union, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN,) andOrganization of American States (OAS) have also created and improved mechanisms to better respond to violence within their regions, albeit with mixed results. In recent years, NATO led a mission in Libya to enforce a no-fly zone and protect civilians, and the OAS successfully mediated territorial disputes between Guatemala and Belize, and Costa Rica and Nicaragua . The Arab League also played an unprecedented role in the ongoing Syrian crisis. It suspended Syria from its membership, and initiated and led an observer mission in Syria. In September 2013, following evidence of the regime's use of chemical weapons, it passed a resolution backing international action against the Syrian government. Shortly thereafter, the UN Security Council adopted Resolution 2118 [PDF] supporting an international initiative to cooperate with the Syrian government to destroy the country's chemical weapons. At the same time, other multilateral bodies have strengthened capacities for conflict management. In July 2008, the World Bank established a State and Peacebuilding Fund to support peace-building projects in fragile, conflict-prone, and conflict-affected states. The World Bank also launched the Center on Conflict, Security, and Development in 2012 which adopts a timely and flexible situation-specific approach to fragile and conflict affected situations. The International Monetary Fund has expanded its emergency assistance funding streams to cover postconflict assistance and grants loans that may be used for reforms aimed at preventing future conflict. It has also been more actively involved in building financial and fiscal systems in postconflict countries, including Afghanistan, Kosovo, and Bosnia. Because such international financial institutions are not viewed as as overtly political, states are generally more willing to accept monitoring, training, and assistance. Moreover, innovative partnerships between governments, the private sector, and civil society have established new norms and practices for conflict prevention and stabilization. The Extractive Industry Transparency Initiative and the Kimberley Process, for example, aim to restrict governments and companies that exploit resources that fund and exacerbate armed conflicts. Finally, a number of leading bilateral donors, including the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and the Netherlands, are investing in their own conflict management capabilities, such as enhanced early-warning systems, rapidly deployable civilian and military personnel, dedicated funding streams to conflict-prone and conflict-affected states, and interagency planning processes aimed at securing "whole of government" effort in conflict-plagued countries such as Afghanistan, Iraq, and Sudan. Despite the proliferation of multilateral and bilateral instruments, significant challenges remain. First, conflict prevention efforts—including early-warning systems—receive scant attention compared with peacekeeping and postconflict interventions. Second, UN peace operations—which have increased dramatically [PDF] in scope—are constrained by severe financial and personnel shortages. The UN Security Council contributes to this overstretch by authorizing and frequently extending the life of peace operations that lack adequate planning and realistic mandates. Aside from major troop-contributing countries [PDF] like Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, and Ethiopia, the majority of UN member states do not commit the requisite number of troops and uniformed personnel. Finally, the international community's efforts to foster peace and recovery in war-torn states leave much to be desired. Despite the creation of the PBC, the international community still struggles to build coherent and coordinated policies. These challenges are exacerbated by poor management, corruption scandals, charges of sexual abuse by UN peacekeepers, and loose coordination among the UN, regional organizations, and other players involved in peace operations. Conflict prevention: Strides in curbing interstate conflicts; major shortcomings in addressing intrastate conflicts Success in preventing conflicts from emerging or escalating has been mixed. On the one hand, conflicts between countries have declined markedly over the past sixty years, largely as a result of collective security agreements, a balance in nuclear weapons, and increased economic interdependence. In 2012, the Uppsala Conflict [PDF] database reported only one interstate conflict between Sudan and South Sudan. However, conflicts within states (including those involving nonstate actors) have increased dramatically, and now constitute nearly all high-intensity conflicts. In 2012, Conflict Barometer [PDF] reported that over 80 percent—314 of the 396 conflicts monitored—were intrastate. At the same time, with the relapse of earlier civil wars making up approximately 80 percent of all conflict outbreaks, and the recurrence of violence within ten years in approximately 40 percent of all postconflict societies, the need for more robust conflict prevention is further underscored. The international community employs a variety of conflict prevention tools that target structural causes of conflict, conduct early warnings and assessments of emerging conflicts, promote cooperative measures such as mediation and dispute resolution, and act coercively. And yet, the multilateral tools currently available to reduce political instability and the likelihood of armed conflict within states are generally underdeveloped, uncoordinated, and deprived of the political authority necessary for effective application. For instance, there is currently no UN mechanism exclusively charged with aggregating, analyzing, prioritizing, and integrating early-warning reports of budding conflicts. In addition, when facing internal political crises, some member states invoke principles of state sovereignty and noninterference to deter international institutions from carrying out any effective role in conflict prevention. The principal international body dealing with conflict prevention for interstate conflicts is the UN Security Council. However, by virtue of its political dynamics and the dependence on a convergence of political wills among member states, it remains deficient as an instrument for conflict prevention. Beyond the UN Security Council, the UN in general—as well as most regional organizations—has a poor record of preventing intrastate conflicts, such as civil wars, coups d'état, and state-sponsored mass killings. Over the past ten years, though, growing awareness of the costs of delayed intervention has mobilized UN efforts to prevent violence. The primary UN body providing early warning assessment and mediation support is the Department of Political Affairs (DPA). The DPA produces analytical reports and briefing notes warning of incipient crises, and its specialized Mediation Support Unit (MSU) facilitates training of peacemaking mediators, supports specific mediation processes, and provides a databank of peacemaking experience. The MSU also deploys staff to work in individual crises at short notice through its Standby Team of Mediation Experts. In addition, the DPA manages twelve political missions that cross a range of activities, including preventive diplomacy and peace-building support. These missions vary in terms of mandate and capacity, but they all aim [PDF] to "provide a forward platform for preventive diplomacy and other activities across a range of disciplines, to help prevent and resolve conflict or to build lasting peace in nations emerging from civil wars." Due to a chronic lack of resources, however, DPA has a limited capacity to support missions in the event of unanticipated political crises. Several regional organizations have also developed early-warning systems. The European Union (EU) [PDF] and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) have relatively advanced early-warning and crisis response architectures. Adopted by the Council of the European Union in 2001, the EU Program for the Prevention of Violent Conflicts [PDF]—the "Gothenburg Programme"—was formed to "prevent violent conflict, human suffering and social and economic dislocation," and works in coordination with the European External Action Force to strengthen short and long-term early-warning mechanisms in Europe. To enhance early conflict prevention, the OSCE created the Office of the OSCE High Commissioner on National Minorities in 1992, which has a two-fold mission [PDF]: to contain and de-escalate minority-related tensions, and to act as a "tripwire," alerting the OSCE when the situation threatens to develop beyond a "level which he is able to contain with the diplomatic means at his disposal." Recognizing that gender is often ignored in efforts at conflict prevention, the OSCE also takes gender equality into consideration, aiming to enhance women's ability to benefit from or report to Early Warning Systems. The Organization of American States (OAS) has made some important strides toward playing a more active preventive role by promoting democratic principles and leveraging various international dispute settlement mechanisms, such as the secretary-general's "good offices" and use of "special missions." In a 2011 meeting, OAS member states proposed a formal early-warning system to prevent coups, although plans have yet to move forward. In Africa, the most developed [PDF] include the Economic Community of West African States Early Warning and Early Response Network, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development Conflict Early Warning Response Mechanism in Africa, and the African Union Continental Early Warning System (CEWS). Despite updates, these systems suffer from budgetary, institutional, personnel, and information management deficiencies, as well as limitations in coverage and response. Increased bilateral support from major donors for early-warning and mediation efforts, including through U.S. Agency for International Development initiatives and the EU African Peace Facility [PDF], have strengthened preventive efforts. However, conflict analysis is still in its infancy and limited early warning is not adequately integrated with policy responses. The CEWS, for instance, is only mandated to collect information, limiting its ability to influence policy-making. This was evident during the crises surrounding the Kenyan elections in 2007 and instability in Guinea-Bissau in late 2008, wherein CEWS was unable to foster early discussions within the African Union that were necessary for preventive action. The UN and regional organizations rely heavily on special and personal representatives (SRSGs), envoys, and high-profile leaders to inform and oversee negotiations specific to a nation or an issue, such as Kofi Annan and then Lakhdar Brahimi handling the crisis inSyria. The UN has also experimented with establishing regional officers as platforms for SRSGs tasked with regional conflict prevention. The UN has had success using mediation resources, ranging from border disputes between Nigeria and Cameroon to civil conflicts in Tajikistan to high-intensity conflict in East Timor. The UN Standby Team of Mediation Experts have been deployed more than seventy times in over thirty countries, and are currently playing significant roles in mediation between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the M23 movement, Mali and the Maldives, as well as in constitutional processes in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Somalia. The African Union is also working to develop a stand-alone mediation capacity, collaborating with other actors to help broker the Sudanese Comprehensive Peace Agreement in 2005 and deploying mediators to South Sudan after violence erupted in late 2013. The UN also managed a preventive deployment mission through the UN Preventive Deployment Force to Macedonia from 1995 to 1999. The mission monitored and reported on the security situation along the borders with Albania and the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, and is widely regarded as a success that led to sustained peace and stability in the region. The lack of a permanent, standing military force at the disposal of the UN, however, has limited the establishment of additional preventive deployment missions. Strengthening peacekeeping operations: Expanded scope and pace, yet overstretched Multilateral peacekeeping efforts have become simultaneously more common and complex in recent years. Over the past decade, the UN has been the largest actor in such efforts, having supervised a number of successful peacekeeping operations, including most recently in Mali, the Abyei region, and South Sudan. More recently, the UN Security Council authorized unprecedented aggressive mandates for missions in Mali and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) that allow peacekeepers to neutralize rebels and insurgents. Nevertheless, peace operations are inadequately resourced with overstretched mandates. Against a backdrop of growing transnational threats and competing agendas, the global demand for peacekeeping exceeds the global willingness and capacity to provide monetary or operational support for peace operations. Multilateral peacekeeping has evolved significantly since its origins in the early post-World War II era. Although not mentioned in the UN Charter, peacekeeping was predominantly conceived as a way to keep peace between states by inserting observers or lightly armed military forces to maintain ceasefires between opposing sides. Over time, both the scope of peace operations and the relevant actors involved have expanded dramatically. Most peace operations today occur in the context of intrastate conflicts, including those that may be still ongoing, and have more extensive ambitions—namely, to help countries ravaged by conflict create the necessary conditions for a durable peace. Such multidimensional efforts include humanitarian, military, political, and development actors who work toward intertwined goals of promoting security, advancing good governance and the rule of law, and paving the way for economic development. Over the past fifteen years, the UN has engaged in peacekeeping efforts in the midst of or in the aftermath of civil wars, genocide, mass atrocities, terrorism, and radical Islamist insurgencies. Ten years ago, twenty-seven thousand UN peacekeepers were deployed in fifteen operations. Today the UN oversees sixteen operations and over 118,000 peacekeepers around the world, managed by the Department of Peacekeeping Operations (DPKO). Recent DPKO missions have been mandated in Mali, South Sudan, the DRC, Haiti, and Afghanistan. Although the UN established a Department of Field Support (DFS) in 2007 to help bridge gaps between headquarters and field staff, coordination remains patchy. The UN Security Council has the ultimate responsibility for authorizing and (at the highest level) supervising peace operations. The role of the UN Security Council implies that UN peacekeeping missions are—for better or worse—subject to political bias in terms of their mandates. In order to cement political consensus for a mission, the UN Security Council often enlists the support of regional organizations. More recently, the UN Security Council has authorized missions under Chapter VII, "Actions with Respect to the Threats, Breaches of the Peace, and Acts of Aggression," which allows peacekeeping operations to use force for defense. For instance, it authorized or supported the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and Economic Community of West African States to engage in peacekeeping efforts in Libya, Afghanistan, Liberia, the former Yugoslavia, and Sierra Leone. Several regional organizations like the European Union and the African Union (AU), also authorized peacekeeping missions (usually as a result of an UN-decreed mandate), and developed their own institutional capacity to plan, manage, and deploy peacekeepers. Increasingly, regional organizations are also acting in concert with the UN to form hybrid peacekeeping operations, such as the joint mission with the AU in the Darfur region of Sudan. Similarly, in the past seven years the first wholly military European Security and Defense Policy missions in Macedonia and Chad were all "bridging" missions where European soldiers made security and logistics preparations for the larger UN peacekeeping forces. More recent bridging missions include the European Union Training Mission Mali (EUTM Mali), which was launched in March 2013, and the European Union Training Mission Somalia (EUTM Somalia), which was launched in 2010. Despite notable successes, the UN and other multilateral and regional peacekeeping operations have suffered several major setbacks. The decade following the Cold War revealed serious shortcomings in Somalia, Bosnia, and Rwanda. In response to these failures, the UN initiated a series of restructures and reforms under the auspices of the Report of the Panel on UN Peacekeeping Operations—otherwise known as the Brahimi Report—released in 2000. The report highlighted UN deficiencies in its conflict management capabilities and called for a robust doctrine with realistic mandates and the strengthening of information-collection and peacekeeping capabilities across UN agencies. In part because of these efforts, the UN improved its peacekeeping operations, leading to successes in East Timor, Sierra Leone, and Liberia. However, a number of problems remain that hamper the success of peacekeeping operations. First, UN Security Council mandates continue to be exceedingly difficult to implement with the forces and capabilities marshaled by troop-contributing countries, raising concerns that the mandates are unrealistic and suffer from mission creep. Given that the field commanders have too few forces, they are required to constantly prioritize which mandated tasks to attempt to implement within their area of operations. Correcting this problem will require the UN Security Council to rein in its ambitions and define clearly achievable peacekeeping goals. Second, because the UN does not maintain its own standing army, it must rely on prospective troop-contributing countries to supply forces and equipment. Generating a full-fledged peacekeeping force takes nine to twelve months on average, although deployment times vary substantially based on political will. For example, upon receiving an expanded mandate, the UN Interim Force in Lebanon grew fourfold in two months, whereas the UN/AU Hybrid Mission in Darfur (UNAMID) took more than three years to reach full deployment. In recent years, DPKO has led a campaign to enhance the UN's rapid-deployment capability, but it has received little support even among member states with the most relevant capabilities. Third, in addition to delays in deployment, member states—including the United States—have often proven reluctant or unwilling to provide the military hardware and equipment (referred to as high-demand enablers and force multipliers) needed for mission success. One notable example of this gap is the unfulfilled request for eighteen medium-utility helicopters [PDF] to provide tactical mobility for UNAMID troops, some of whom died because they were not quickly transported to field hospitals. Finally, the quality of peacekeepers has been mixed, with uneven training standards among countries. Lack of common and professional training standards impedes progress and, in several cases, damages the reputation of UN peacekeeping. In 2010, reports emerged that UN peacekeepers from Nepal were the source of a deadly outbreak of cholera in Haiti, which has killed more than seven thousand civilians throughout the country. Equally disturbing have been instances of gross misconduct by UN peacekeepers in the field. The most alarming incidents pertain to sexual abuse cases in the DRC, Burundi, Haiti, and Liberia, where scores of men, women, and children were allegedly raped by UN troops. Although the UN has adopted a policy of zero tolerance for such conduct, aside from dismissing the peacekeeper, the organization is powerless in pursuing further disciplinary action and relies on troop-contributing countries to hold aggressors accountable for crimes committed by their nationals. Further, the lower Tribunal of the UN, the UN Dispute Tribunal, has cleared the charges of 68 percent of those accused of wrongdoing during peacekeeping missions. Preventing mass atrocities: Deadlocked despite more awareness International efforts to stop mass atrocities—genocide, crimes against humanity, and war crimes—have gained momentum in the last two decades, but remain inadequate. Although international treaties, legal innovations, and advances in transitional justice have provided the norms and tools to tackle mass atrocities, political principles of national sovereignty and noninterference often thwart action in this area. Despite George W. Bush and Barack Obama's pledges to "never again" stand by as atrocities are committed, they in fact continue in Syria and elsewhere. The International Criminal Court's [PDF] (ICC) lengthy indictment of Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir for war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide serves as a stark reminder both of the stakes involved in the pursuit of international justice and the diplomatic and political obstacles to holding perpetrators accountable. In the wake of the Holocaust, UN member states negotiated the 1948 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide (Genocide Convention), which officially defined genocide and listed its five specific crimes: killing; causing serious bodily or mental harm; deliberately inflicting conditions on a group to bring about—in whole or in part—its physical destruction; imposing measures intended to prevent births; and forcibly transferring children from one group to another. The convention, however, contained no triggers for international response to genocide, and instead invited signatories to "call upon the competent organs of the United Nations" to take action. Although 142 countries have ratified the Genocide Convention, the world has witnessed repeated instances of genocide and other mass atrocities. These include the mass slaughter committed by the Khmer Rouge regime in Cambodia between 1975 and 1979; the Rwandan genocide of 1994; the July 1995 massacre of unarmed Muslim boys and men in Srebrenica, Bosnia-Herzegovina; ethnic cleansing in Kosovo in 1998 and 1999; and the slow motion mass killings and starvation in Darfur between 2003 and late 2009. In each case, the international community failed to unite behind a collective response. Recent reports of atrocities and war crimes in Syria point to continued prevalence of these crimes. Since the outbreak of antiregime protests in March 2011, more than one-hundred thousand people have been killed and around two million (registered) Syrian refugees, approximately one-third of the population, have fled to neighboring countries like Jordan, Turkey, and Lebanon. But despite the rising death tolls and displaced refugees, diverging political interests and entrenched views on sovereignty continue to inhibit the UN Security Council's willingness to take early, decisive steps in order to mitigate the violence. Granted, the international body—through Russian and U.S. agreement—eventually responded to the use of chemical weapons in Syria by authorizing their removal. Furthermore, by January 2014, a UN-backed peace conference (Geneva II) brought the Syrian opposition and government to the negotiating table to begin negotiations for a transitional government, but the prospects remain limited and the war on the ground continues to rage on without a concerted international response. There have been a number of efforts to set up tribunals—including the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia and the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda—and hybrid criminal bodies—such as the Special Court for Sierra Leone, the Crimes Panels of the District Court of Dili (East Timor Tribunal), and the Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia—that hold individuals responsible for atrocities in particular conflicts. While notwithstanding criticism for issues like bias against non-Western states, prolonged prosecutions decades after the conflict has ended, and failure to prosecute more than a small fraction of the individuals actually involved in the killings, these initiatives have expanded the legal and judicial instruments available to hold perpetrators of mass atrocities accountable. In addition, the creation of the International Criminal Court in 1998 provided another legal tool to hold perpetrators of mass atrocities accountable for their actions. On March 14, 2012, the ICC issued its first verdict in the case of Thomas Lubanga Dyilo, leader of the rebel group Congolese Patriotic Union, who was found guilty and sentenced to fourteen years in prison for war crimes and using child soldiers. The ICC has also been aggressive in investigating and indicting high-profile criminals, such as Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir for genocide, crimes against humanity, and war crimes. However, the ICC has been criticized on several grounds for its disproportionate focus on Africa. To date, the court has examined crimes inthe DRC, Sudan, Central African Republic, Mali, Libya, Kenya, the Ivory Coast, and Uganda).The African Union (AU) has reacted adversely by issuing a resolution [PDF] against the ICC indictment of al-Bashir, and in September 2013, the Kenyan parliament voted to leave the ICC in response to the indictments of Kenyan president Uhuru Kenyata and deputy president William Ruto. That said, the ICC only launches cases either at the request of member states or of the UN Security Council and of the eighteen cases that the Court has at hand, twelve were opened at the request of African states themselves. It is a point of contention that the remaining six cases came as referrals from the Security Council, which includes powerful states like China, Russia, and the United States that have not ratified the Rome statue­. This has caused concerns over the impartiality, fairness, and indeed legitimacy of the court. Other countries have demonstrated concerns with the court, including the United States regarding the ICC investigation of Israeli actions in Gaza. The ICC is also faulted for the purported trade-off between peace and justice caused by its legal decisions. For instance, when the ICC first indicted President al-Bashir, he responded by expelling international aid agencies from the country, causing an even greater humanitarian crisis in Darfur. The UN also strengthened its capabilities to fight mass atrocities through more diplomatic channels. In 2004, it created the Office of the Special Advisor on the Prevention of Genocide (OSAPG) to collect information, and provide recommendations to the UN Security Council. To date, the effectiveness of the OSAPG has been mixed. While the OSAPG has called for countries to fulfill their responsibility to protect in Syria, on the grounds that the situation and the purported use of chemical weapons constitute a case of crimes against humanity, it has failed to influence states to act. The OSAPG receives strong support from many UN member states for acting proactively to detect instances of genocide and to release statements of concern in situations characterized by massive human rights violations, although it is limited by a lack of resources. The evolving norm of the "responsibility to protect" (R2P) could provide a normative framework for redoubling international efforts to prevent genocide and other mass atrocities. The concept of R2P is based on three pillars: (1) states bear the primary responsibility of protecting its citizens; (2) the international community is encouraged to support states in this endeavor; and (3) in instances when states fail to meet their obligations, the international community should use diplomatic, humanitarian, and coercive pressures to intervene. In 2011, the multilateral response to the unfolding Libyan crisis proved to be an important step in implementing R2P, but it also instigated strong skepticism from non-Western countries that viewed the principle as a façade for facilitating regime change. It has also failed to set precedent for other similar interventions, including Syria. In the context of the civil war in Syria, R2P has not yet compelled a concerted international effort to prevent ongoing atrocities, casting doubt over the future of R2P as a mainstream operational tool and prescription for coercive action. Several regional organizations have also made the prevention of mass atrocities a rhetorical priority. The AU Constitutive Act of 2000 includes "the right of the Union to intervene in a Member State pursuant to a decision of the Assembly in respect of grave circumstances, namely: war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity." Still, the AU is hampered by the participation of members who have been the very perpetrators of mass atrocities. The EU, despite a strong commitment to human rights and support of R2P, falls short of explicitly stating a commitment or dedicating resources specifically to preventing mass atrocities. Civil activism in developed countries has also helped raise awareness and galvanize support among key policymakers. For instance, efforts by faith-based organizations (FBOs), humanitarian agencies, and groups such as the Save Darfur Coalition (which consists of nearly two hundred organizations) have been highly effective in mobilizing support and urging governments to stop the "ongoing genocide" in Sudan. The Enough Project—a coalition of nongovernmental organizations, FBOs, and the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees—has similarly focused attention on genocide and crimes against humanity in Africa. However, support of the civil-society groups has also been selective and numerous high-intensity conflicts—such as in the DRC and Sri Lanka—have suffered from disengagement. State-building and peace-building: Stagnant resources, unrealistic mandates When the killing ends or is reduced, efforts to rebuild war-torn states and societies begin. Effective and comprehensive strategies are required to ensure that peace is sustainable (peace-building) and that capacity and legitimacy of institutions is enhanced (state-building). Strong government institutions help prevent the recurrence of violence by providing public goods and enhancing the perceived legitimacy of institutional arrangements. However, both state-building and peace-building efforts suffer from similar shortcomings: complex mandates for international missions, financial and resource constraints, a lack of national ownership in the design and implementation of reconstruction and peace-building efforts, and short-term commitments from donors that limit opportunities to stabilize and promote long-term economic development. Despite the creation of new institutions and processes, the international community's record on this front has been inadequate. According to the Center for International Development and Conflict Management's Peace and Conflict 2012 report [PDF], most conflicts over the past decade occurred in relapsed countries. Iraq, Sudan and South Sudan, and Afghanistan serve as somber reminders of how complex the task of postconflict peace-building and state-building can be, particularly in cases of ongoing insurgency and entrenched political division. Despite concerted efforts to achieve peace-building objectives, progress is sluggish in many postconflict countries. In Afghanistan, some success has been achieved. The International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) shifted from focusing on combat to training the Afghan National Security Forces and in June 2013, NATO handed full responsibility for security in the country to Afghan forces. Drawdown strategies are currently taking shape to withdraw the vast majority of both NATO and U.S. troops by December 2014, with plans for only 10,000 to 20,000 troops to remain in the country to assist the Afghan forces with training and counterterrorism. Yet, peace-building and state-building objectives have been hampered by continued insurgent attacks and lack of institutional capacity in the Afghan government. The international community has undertaken efforts to fill such gaps. In 2005 the UN created the Peace-building Commission (PBC), the Peace-building Support Office, and the Peace-building Fund (PBF) to coordinate activities and mobilize resources for postconflict countries. Since 2007, the PBF has coordinated country-assistance strategies and allocated $356.4 million [PDF], in twenty-four countries, including aid for the postconflict states of Burundi, Sierra Leone, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, and the Central African Republic. Of this, 62 percent ($217.8 million) of the PBF allocation has been used support the critical peace-building priorities on the PBC agenda. It remains modest in scope and mandate, however, and operates only as an advisory body. In addition, the PBC does not have the political support to add complex postconflict cases to its agenda—such as the Democratic Republic of Congo and Sudan. Several international financial institutions have undertaken steps to mainstream peace-building and state-building support. The contribution of the International Monetary Fund(IMF) on this front has been mixed. Some IMF critics contend that IMF loans that come with strict austerity programs can cause economic hardship that could trigger armed violence to break out along socioeconomic fractures. Additionally, although peace-building and state-building activities are not formally included within the IMF mandate, the institution is capable of influencing activities indirectly. Others view the IMF more charitably, as an organization that can help nations address structural precipitators of conflict by making loans conditional upon much-needed political and economic reform. More recently, the World Bank has supported reconstruction efforts by creating a group working on states prone to or affected by conflict and establishing the State and Peacebuilding Fund. Created in 2007, the Fragile and Conflict-Affected States Group coordinates the World Bank's work in such states or zones. The State and Peacebuilding Fund has the twin objectives of improving governance and institutional performance, and supporting the reconstruction and development of countries prone to, in, or emerging from conflict. The UN Development Program's (UNDP's) Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery also established a trust fund to mobilize resources for recovery needs. Moreover, regional organizations have established their own development banks. The African Development Bank (AfDB) places importance on assisting states as they transition out of fragility through the Fragile States Facility enhanced engagement plan, which aims to "strengthen capacity and accountability in economic and financial governance." A recent example of AfDB intervention was in Tunisia [PDF] where the AfDB is focusing on economic transformation, access to infrastructure, and job creation. Also recently, in 2012, the AfDB intervened in Morocco, and is now focused on achieving economic development through two main pillars: strengthening of governance and social inclusion, and support for the development of 'green' infrastructure. Within the United States, the whole of government strategy during the Bush and Obama administrations has sought to bring together civilian and military resources to better address postconflict reconstruction. A proposed Mobile Development Team [PDF] would draw individuals from the military, the Pentagon, the State Department, and the United States Agency for International Development in order to address issues of state building and peace-building in postconflict situations. U.S. and International Armed Conflict Issues Should the United States provide greater financial and other support for peacekeeping operations? Yes: Proponents note that the entire budget for peacekeeping operations led by the United Nations is $7.33 billion, or less than 1 percent of global military expenditures [PDF] in 2012. In addition, only twenty-three U.S. troops served in peacekeeping operations in 2013[PDF], with an additional eighty-nine in police training and six as military observers. Appropriating the $2.1 billion in international peacekeeping requested in the FY2014 budget, and having the Pentagon provide the UN and regional organizations with military support would be a cost-effective way to address U.S. international security interests for only a small fraction of the overall defense budget. By proving greater financial support, the United States would also show positive leadership [PDF], demonstrating ability and reliability. Finally, greater involvement would allow the United States to ensure that UN missions are employed responsibly. No: Critics point out that the United States already provides 28 percent of the UN Department of Peacekeeping Operations' annual budget—$2.1 billion [PDF]—as well as $50 million annually for the African Union-led peacekeeping mission in Somalia, and the Multinational Force and Observers mission in the Sinai Desert between Egypt and Israel. And while U.S. troops largely do not take part in UN-commanded deployments, large numbers are involved in UN-mandated operations, particularly in Afghanistan. In addition, the United States continues its Global Peace Operations Initiative, which trains foreign military and police forces. These contributions demonstrate that the United States has accepted more than its fair share of the international peacekeeping burden. In addition, peacekeeping operations mandated by the UN Security Council may be inefficient or prove unsuccessful, wasting American taxpayer dollars. Should the United States be engaged in state-building missions? Yes: Poor governance structures in weak and conflict-ridden states allow terrorism and other transnational issues, like crime and disease, to prosper and spread regionally and internationally. Legitimate and effective institutions are necessary for sustained peace, and proponents argue that, as such, they are an appropriate target for U.S. foreign policy efforts. State-building provides both a cost-effective measure to ensure the future security and stability of failed and weak states, and an unparalleled opportunity for advancing U.S. national interests with regard to security, diplomacy, and cultural and humanitarian concerns. Moreover, rather than directly confronting extremism through force, state-building offers an alternative to military action and the nurturing of democratic institutions helps develop permanent bastions of cooperative states with like-minded agendas, essentially acting as a conflict-prevention tool. Finally, the U.S. approach to state- building advocates the creation of a national identity based on a set of shared values, rather than race or ethnicity, which, in turn, can become the basis for long-term stability. No: Critics contend that state-building, rather than fostering stability, has the potential to exacerbate conflict and endanger U.S. national interests. Effective methods of state-building are not well established, and the practice depends heavily on potentially uncontrollable aspects of the local political and security environment. Exercises in state-building often prove detrimental to U.S. long-term interests, and may cause regional destabilization, provoke insurgency, and disquiet the international community. State-building is not a quick fix: patience and long-term resources are required that may not be politically palatable with regard to domestic opinion. At the same time, state-building cannot be achieved without security, and in most cases requires a prolonged and expensive military action—exactly what advocates seek to avoid. Legitimacy in state-building operations requires multilateral support and consensus, vital factors that have been unachievable with regard to the most recent U.S. endeavors in Iraq and Afghanistan. Additionally, critics argue that not all weak or failed states present security risks to the United States, and forays into such countries would exhaust national resources at a time of severe strains on the U.S. budget. Further, other nations may back away [PDF] from engagement in state-building efforts if the United States is involved. Should the United States become party to the International Criminal Court? Yes: Proponents contend that the International Criminal Court (ICC) is the only permanent international body that provides global jurisdiction over mass atrocities when other means of prosecution fail or do not exist. To ensure the continued respect for the rule of law, and solidify its moral position as a global leader in human rights and international justice efforts, the United States should sign and ratify the Rome Statute of the ICC. The United States already actively cooperates with the ICC—it attended the Kampala review conference and continues to support the referral of the Darfur and Libya cases to the court. Moreover, participation in an institution that shares the values of international law and order fits with the broader U.S. foreign policy of engagement with international institutions and could help the United States emerge out of a foreign policy approach focused on the "war on terror." Finally, resistance to crimes of aggression is unwarranted because the United States signed an amendment that does not allow prosecution of U.S. citizens without UN Security Council referral. No: Although the U.S.-ICC relationship has evolved from hostile to positive engagement in recent years—for instance, in March 2013, U.S. secretary of state John Kerry came out in favor of Bosco Ntaganda's recent transfer from Rwanda to the ICC—critics believe that granting an international court the legal authority to try U.S. citizens for crimes committed in the United States would infringe on the established purview of U.S. national courts and significantly undermine the U.S. Constitution. As such, ratification of the Rome Statute would require a constitutional amendment to ensure concordance with U.S. law. Moreover, the ICC would grossly interfere with U.S. sovereignty, inherently limit power to choose judges, influence the direction of trial proceedings, and thus further undermine U.S. national interests. Can management of peace operations be shared among traditional and emerging powers? Yes: UN peacekeeping operations already consider the input of emerging powers, including China—a permanent member of the UN Security Council. Other emerging countries, such as India and Brazil, also provide invaluable support as major troop-contributing partners. As emerging countries grow wealthier, they should continue to increase their engagement—even financially—to meet their (informal) obligations as responsible stakeholders in the global security space. A larger group of members with capability would enlarge and diversify the resources available for conflict-management efforts, especially as wealthier countries' budgets have come under strain [PDF] in recent years, while the number of peacekeeping operations has increased. In addition, sharing responsibilities will enhance the UN Security Council's credibility and legitimacy for conflict prevention and response. Armed conflict more often directly affects developing nations than it does the permanent members of the UN Security Council, and a more proportional participation scheme would better address the problems of countries in need of intervention. Likewise, a wider representation will allow the UN Security Council to make decisions on budgets and mandates that consider regional dynamics and shed a more analytical lens on the effectiveness of peace operations. No: Managing UN peace operations is complex and incorporating more actors might lead to more gridlock and red tape, diminishing the effectiveness and response time for conflict management. The current format gives priority to the world's most capable and responsible actors, and adding less-capable states may confuse the UN Security Council's agenda and process. Additionally, more participants do not necessarily mean a proportionate expansion of the resource pool or heightened capabilities. Finally, emerging powers have security interests (for example, Brazil on Iran, and South Africa on Zimbabwe) distinct from those of the United States and its Western allies, and incorporating their position would undermine U.S. national interests. Does the R2P doctrine offer a promising normative foundation for curtailing mass atrocities? Yes: Proponents believe that the responsibility to protect (R2P) doctrine is a valuable tool for humanitarian intervention, enhancing both the international community's motivation and prospects for successful operations geared toward ending mass atrocities. Foremost, the doctrine affirms that sovereignty involves the obligation to protect a country's civilians—further asserting that a failure to protect transfers the responsibility to intervene from a national government to the international community. Without the cloak of sovereignty to hide behind, state leaders will be less likely to commit or allow atrocities within their borders. Likewise, with such a normative mandate, the international community, led by the United Nations, will have a broadly recognized basis to take action. Furthermore, the R2P concept has already been engaged, with the international community responding to protect civilians during the outbreak of violence in Kenya after elections in 2008 and during civil war in Libya in 2011. No: Staunch opponents of R2P argue that it is not the job of the United States to intervene in the problems of another sovereign nation, or to coordinate a group of states to do so. The R2P doctrine does not establish new concrete obligations under international law and therefore will not create an environment that motivates outside actors or compels national leaders to protect populations. The primary mechanism for leveraging collective action in protection under R2P continues to be the UN Security Council, limiting a supposed global responsibility to the purview of a few nations. The Security Council gridlock over Syria underscores the inefficacy of such an approach to international intervention. Without an explicit mandate from the UN Security Council, individual countries may still be unwilling to intervene unilaterally. The doctrine also advocates swift action to prevent mass atrocities but does not expand existing mechanisms for monitoring, evaluating, or facilitating action. Furthermore, critics point out that the instances of R2P's implementation in Kenya and Libya have proven to be anomalies among the many other recent cases that have warranted R2P, but they have both also failed to achieve anything in the way of establishing benchmarks for future implementation. Recent Developments December 2013: African intervention in CAR On December 5, nearly one year after the Seleka ("Alliance") group of militias launched a campaign to overthrow the Central African Republican (CAR) Government, the UN Security Council authorized MISCA, the African-led International Support Mission in the CAR. Shortly thereafter, France bolstered African peacekeeping efforts with 1600 troops. However, by January 2014, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) warned that escalating violence might result in genocide. December 2013: Chemical weapons in Syria Nearly six months after allegations of a major chemical attack in Syria prompted international attention, the United Nations released a report confirming that sarin gas was used in five incidents during fighting. Though the report did not disclose whether government or opposition forces used the gas, earlier reports from French and U.S. intelligence sources implicate Bashar al-Assad's regime. Furthermore, Syria missed its December 31 for removing its chemical weapons stockpile. Weather and security concerns were cited as factors in the delay. Meanwhile, violence raged on in the war-torn country, which has resulted in over two million refugees, four million internally displaced persons, and 100,000 deaths. December 2013: UN uses drones in Congo The UN Department of Peacekeeping Operations launched its fist two unmanned aerial vehical (UAVs) for surveillance purposes over the Democractic Republic of the Congo on December 3. UAVs promise to provide information on the movements of armed groups without endangering the lives of peacekeepers. More UAVs are expected to be launched in April 2014. July 2013: China commits troops to UN China pledged to commit four hundred peacekeepers to the current UN mission in Mali (MINUSMA), including 170 combat troops. While China has supplied peacekeepers in the past, contributions have been limited to non-combat personnel such as engineers and medical assistants. China's pledge to provide infantry is the first of its kind [PDF] and marks a clear policy shift away from China's traditional non-interventionist position. April 2013: More robust mission in Mali Three months after the unilateral French attack on Islamist rebel groups in northern Mali, the UN Security Council unanimously voted to establish the Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA). MINUSMA's mandate allows for the use of "all force necessary" to "stabilize the key population centres, especially in the north of Mali… to deter threats and take active steps to prevent the return of armed elements to those areas." Though the mandate was authorized under Chapter VII of the UN Charter, Russia expressed concerns that UN peacekeepers are assuming a more assertive role than their traditional monitoring of cease-fires. Like the new rapid-reaction force approved to "neutralize armed troops" in the Democratic Republic of Congo, MINUSMA has far-reaching authority under the purview of security enforcement, including anti-terrorist operations. These types of less constrained mandates could create a new norm for peacekeeping missions and have "unpredictable and unclear consequences" for the perceived impartiality and safety of UN personnel. September 2013: Kenya leaves ICC On September 5, 2013 Kenya's parliament approved a motion to withdraw its membership from the International Criminal Court following the indictment of Kenyan president Uhuru Kenyatta and deputy president William Ruto on charges of crimes against humanity. Kenya's withdrawal marks the first time a country has left the ICC and carries with it strong implications for other African countries to follow suit. Still, the ICC plans to continue investigating the cases. Options for Strengthening the Global Regime to Prevent Armed Conflict U.S. and international action are needed to ensure that conflict-prevention, conflict-response, peace-building, and state-building efforts are supported and provided with ample resources. These recommendations reflect the views of Stewart Patrick, senior fellow and director of the International Institutions and Gobal Governance (IIGG) program, and Micah Zenko, Douglas Dillon fellow in the Center for Preventive Action. Redefine impartiality to emphasize the pursuit of peace, while deploying assertive mandates The UN's growing willingness to deploy combat-ready troops for peace enforcement is a welcome shift and has proven more successful in quelling violence and instability. At the same time, it carries inherent risks. The use of force can have unpredictable consequences, threatening the safety of UN personnel. In addition, more assertive mandates, such as those adopted in Mali and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, may involve the UN directly in the conflict, jeopardizing its reputation as an impartial, honest broker. To mitigate the potential harm to its reputation and to avoid undermining its objectives, the UN should reframe the concept of "impartiality" to mean equal treatment to all parties working for peace, combined with resolute opposition to spoilers bent on violence. At the same time, the UN Department of Peacekeeping Operations (DPKO) should prioritize inclusive dialogue and seek to reach out to representatives from all sides of the conflict. Enhance the global and regional architecture for conflict prevention The United States should work with the United Nations and regional organizations to strengthen global crisis prevention capabilities. An immediate objective should be to build systems that better integrate conflict analysis and early warning with organizational decision-making processes. The United Nations and regional organizations must also improve information-sharing among themselves, particularly given the rise of "hybrid" missions involving both sets of actors. Shift budgets toward prevention within the UN and regional organizations Lack of funding and personnel remain critical concerns for international institutions. Funding shortfalls often lead officials to disproportionately allocate resources toward countries and regions demanding immediate support and neglect emerging crises. Although some institutions are expanding their capacity—the European Union dedicated funds for mediation for the first time in 2013—organizations without this luxury should reallocate a portion of their existing budgets to support greater conflict prevention efforts. Improve planning of UN peacekeeping and peace-building missions The UN DPKO should seek to improve strategic planning and coordination between UN peace operations and broader peace-building efforts undertaken by the UN and other international actors. DPKO should initiate peace-building activities and discussions with host-countries from the beginning of each mission, and the UN Security Council should also provide clearer and more realistic mandates linking these efforts. The successful transition process in Timor-Leste provides a useful example for other states including the Ivory Coast, Liberia, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Haiti. Enhance early-warning and -action efforts Although several regional organizations have mandates and some capacity for early-warning systems and assessment, there is no formal information-sharing even for joint political or peacekeeping missions, and only a vague idea among them of what each is doing through informal meetings. Work plans are needed to promote broader cooperation between the United Nations and regional organizations that goes beyond simply building capacity and includes formally sharing timely and relevant early-warning information, analytical reporting, and best practices. Early warning must also be better integrated into the decision-making processes of states and international organizations that are committed to preventive action. Develop rapidly deployable U.S. military forces to prevent mass atrocities The U.S. military maintains the world's preeminent rapidly deployable power-projection capabilities. As one notable example, the Army's 82nd Airborne-Ready Brigade can deploy as many as 3,600 troops anywhere in the world within eighteen hours' notice. However, U.S. military officials demonstrate little enthusiasm for mobilizing this impressive capability to prevent or curtail ongoing mass atrocities. The U.S. military has the capabilities to intervene quickly to prevent genocide when directed by the appropriate civilian authorities, but does not undertake the contingency planning or realistic training to make that mission a Pentagon-wide priority. The Obama administration must provide specific guidance to the military in its National Security Strategy to plan and train its rapidly deployable forces for genocide- and mass-atrocity-prevention missions. Create a dedicated U.S. mediation support team American diplomatic officials called on to mediate between parties in conflict have long complained that their efforts are hampered by having little support in the way of political analyses, regional and issue-area expertise, logistics, and communications. Within the State Department's Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations, the Obama administration should develop a strategic vision that includes funding and staffing a permanent Mediation Support Unit that could be rapidly deployed to bolster U.S.-sponsored mediation.   Useful lessons can be drawn from the United Nations Department of Political Affairs' Mediation Standby Team, created in 2008. Consisting of a team leader, as well as experts in constitutional arrangements, human rights and transitional justice, power sharing, and security arrangements, the team was ready to be deployed within three days for a period of up to one month to support the mediation efforts by the United Nations, regional organizations, and nongovernmental organizations. In its first year, the team was deployed twenty-six times to ten countries to support ongoing mediation efforts, and conducted capacity-building seminars in thirteen countries.
  • International Organizations
    Collateral Damage: How Libyan Weapons Fueled Mali’s Violence
    Coauthored with Isabella Bennett, program coordinator in the International Institutions and Global Governance program. The violence that has plagued once-stable Mali since late 2011 should have come as no surprise to Western governments, for it is a direct function of NATO’s Libyan intervention. By adopting a “light footprint” approach in Libya, the alliance unwittingly contributed to a security vacuum that allowed countless weapons  to stream out of Libya and fuel insurgency, extremism, and crime in neighboring countries. One of these countries was Mali, where the flood of weapons from Libya helped a rebel coalition topple the democratically elected government in Bamako in May 2012 and—until the recent French intervention—allow a jihadist alliance to gain control over the country’s entire northeast. The relevant policy question is why neither the United States nor its international partners did anything to  staunch or mitigate the flow of Libyan weapons south. After all, Western policymakers were hardly ignorant of the danger. A surge in the illegal arms trade is common in postconflict scenarios, and policymakers were well-aware of the threat that Libyan weapons posed in a volatile region of fragile states unable (and a times unwilling) to police their frontiers. The U.S. intelligence community knew that Colonel Muammar al-Qaddafi, the deposed Libyan leader, had filled “well over a thousand” arms depots. The collapse of his regime left behind “miles of unsecured warehouses filled with rockets, machine guns, ammunition, and antiaircraft systems.”  Time magazine reported that within hours after Qaddafi’s death on October 20, 2011, Tuareg fighters from Mali that had served as his mercenaries were speeding home with pickup trucks full of weapons from the dictator’s warehouses. By January 2012, a United Nations report warned that governments in the Sahel were struggling to address a “spike in weapons proliferation, organized crime, and terrorism.” Three months later, militants armed with the weapons flowing out of Libya orchestrated a coup in Mali. That was only the beginning of the turmoil, however. Taking advantage of the national political chaos, the weak reach of the central government, and their new access to arms, an alliance between jihadists—including the terrorist group al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and Ansar Dine—with separatist Tuareg rebels, began to carve out a proto-state in the country’s northeast, imposing a draconian version of sharia law. By the end of 2012, these heavily armed elements were within striking distance of Bamako. Alarmed at the prospect of Mali becoming a permanent jihadist haven—and frustrated at delays in getting a UN-authorized force of African troops into the country–France launched an intervention on January 11, 2013. If observers were so conscious of the danger posed by Qaddafi’s weapons stockpiles, the question is: What could have been done to keep them out of the hands of militants and terrorists, and why wasn’t it done? From the outset, the Obama administration made it clear that the campaign in Libya would proceed with a “light footprint.” The international coalition would enforce a no-fly zone and conduct airstrikes to weaken Qaddafi’s forces, but let the Libyan rebels take responsibility for ground operations. As the air campaign wound down in August 2011, NATO issued a statement that the alliance would not deploy any troops to the country to help the Libyan National Transition Council (NTC) preserve law and order, stating that “It is a classic case for blue helmets.” Ian Martin, then the special representative of the UN secretary-general and head of the UN Support Mission in Libya, drafted a plan to help stabilize Libya in August 2011. It proposed “up to two hundred unarmed military observers plus an ‘interim protection force’ for the observers.” However, Martin soon informed the UN Security Council that the NTC had “rejected the idea of deploying any kind of international military force.” This resistance to a peacekeeping force was understandable: having come to power so recently, the victorious rebels were loathe to cede authority—and perceived sovereignty—to the United Nations. Unfortunately, the victorious Libyan rebels were also in no position, given their internal rivalries, to provide the basic security and rule of law that the country desperately needed. Implementing thorough security sector reform—including disarming militias, training new police and security forces, and establishing a functioning and accountable judiciary—would be the task of months and years. In such a context, controlling Libya’s arms depots and borders appears to have been an afterthought. To be sure, U.S. and NATO officials spoke with NTC leaders about securing Libya’s weapons stockpiles, and (according to an anonymous CNN interview with a NATO source) deployed intelligence officers to help the new authorities do so. But these discussions and operations appear to have focused overwhelmingly on securing Libya’s mustard gas and surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), rather than its massive stores of conventional arms. The Obama administration also provided a Swiss and a British nongovernmental organization with $1.5 million to prevent the proliferation of SAMs. (Both foundations had been working in the country to clear mines in Libya before the revolution.) Keeping chemical weapons and SAMs out of the hands of terrorists is of course crucial. But if there is a clear lesson of the Libyan experience for future military interventions, it is that such efforts cannot come at the expense of securing small arms and light weapons—which in this case undermined stability through the Middle East and North Africa. Moving forward, the United States should work with international partners and the United Nations to develop a new postconflict framework for securing weapons stockpiles—including but not limited to chemical weapons. It should also prioritize border control as a core task in reforming the security sectors of war-torn states. The United Nations should be in a position to offer such niche services and deploy trained personnel to accomplish these tasks, including where new authorities resist a fully-fledged outside peacekeeping force. More generally, the United States should work more assertively with international partners to control the illicit arms trade and associated criminal activities, that continue to destabilize states around the world. The French intervention in Mali may eliminate terrorist havens there, for example, but it is unlikely to eliminate the many regional pipelines, spanning West and North Africa, that transnational criminals have established to traffic in illicit weapons, as well as drugs and people. Clamping down on these established trafficking networks will require much better situational awareness, through a combination of remote sensing, investments in human intelligence, and information sharing among national governments. In one controversial proposal, U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) hopes to establish a drone base in the region to improve surveillance of illicit activities. But the United States should not ignore potential multilateral options, like having the the  UN Security Council direct the UN and its agencies (like the UN Office on Drugs and Crime) to monitor illicit arms flows in greater detail. According to Baffour Amoa, the president of the West African Action Network on Small Arms, third party assessments of legal weapons’ transfers in Niger could have identified stolen weapons from Libya and stopped them from falling into the hands of Malian rebels. Unfortunately, international proposals to tighten monitoring of the legal weapons trade—including through a new UN Arms Trade Treaty—have  failed in the face of ambivalence from China, Russia, and the United States. Finally, the spillover consequences of the Libyan intervention cast a pall over the “light footprint” model, suggesting that would-be intervenors should prepare themselves for regional blowback. Especially given the fiscal crises in NATO countries, leaders should invest in border control and control of weapons stockpiles to prevent the need for future, more costly interventions elsewhere. In the case of Mali, here’s hoping that the French mission includes attention to securing the country’s borders and its arms caches—and that the planned follow-on force of UN-mandated African peacekeepers, with U.S. and broader Western help, prioritizes the same tasks.
  • Security Alliances
    Refocusing U.S.-Mexico Security Cooperation
    U.S.-Mexico security cooperation, led by the Merida Initiative, is vital and must continue. But with Enrique Pena Nieto's inauguration, Mexico's political landscape is now changing, and the United States must adjust its strategy and support accordingly. Building on the lessons of the past five years, the United States should work with Mexico to implement the nonmilitary programs envisioned in the current Merida framework, in particular supporting and prioritizing Mexico's ongoing judicial reform, training police officers at the state and local levels, modernizing the U.S.-Mexico border, and investing in local community and youth-oriented programs. The Merida Initiative After Five Years The Merida Initiative was launched in 2007 under the George W. Bush administration, which promised $1.4 billion over three years to "support Mexico's law enforcement in the fight against organized crime." The Obama administration revised and expanded Merida's mission, moving from a heavy emphasis on military equipment to a more comprehensive bilateral strategy that seeks to reduce the role and influence of organized crime. The initiative now encompasses four priorities (called pillars): disrupting the operational capacity of organized crime, institutionalizing the rule of law, creating a twenty-first-century border to speed the flow of legal commerce and stop that of illegal goods, and building strong and resilient communities that can stand up to criminal intrusions. The main problem today is not Merida's design but its uneven implementation, with the gains in some areas offset by minimal progress in others. The United States and Mexico have been most successful in removing drug kingpins. Since 2009, Mexican authorities have captured or killed twenty-five of the thirty-seven most-wanted drug traffickers and substantially disrupted the operations of Mexico's best-known criminal networks. Many of these high-profile arrests resulted from bilateral intelligence and operational cooperation. Advances have been made as well in strengthening the rule of law, most notably the expansion and professionalization of the federal police. But progress has been slight beyond this particular law enforcement body, which represents just 10 percent of Mexico's police forces. Little discernible change has occurred within the justice system. Though a set of 2008 constitutional and legislative reforms set in motion a fundamental transformation of Mexico's court systems, the implementation of these changes has been exceedingly slow, so much so that the shift may not occur by the 2016 deadline, leaving Mexico's judicial future uncertain. On a practical level, rising crime and violence have exposed the weak capacity of the current justice system. With only one or two crimes out of every hundred resulting in a conviction, impunity reigns, providing no effective legal deterrent to a life of crime. Initiatives to modernize the border and build resilient communities (pillars three and four of the Merida Initiative) are even further behind. Though some innovative border management programs, such as the Customs Trade Partnership Against Terrorism—which helps trusted businesses avoid extensive border checks—have improved efficiency, the overall tenor of U.S. policy has been to increase barriers, slowing flows of legal commerce. Financially, investment in border crossings and infrastructure has not matched the exponential increase in trade crossing the border each year. Investment has lagged not only for new construction, but also for basic maintenance on existing infrastructure, leading to overwhelmed and at times downright dangerous facilities (a border crossing roof collapsed in 2011, injuring seventeen people). Stressed infrastructure has also led to traffic jams lasting up to eight hours, and has cost billions of dollars in trade losses, without drastically discouraging or disrupting illegal flows. The building of "resilient communities" too has largely been forgotten. The pillar's ambitious objectives of addressing the underlying socioeconomic and community factors behind rising crime rates have not yet moved beyond a few pilot programs in Ciudad Juárez. Finally, though talking often of co-responsibility in the drug war, the United States has done little to address the domestic factors that affect security in Mexico. The illegal flow of weapons and money southward continues unabated, and U.S. drug consumption remains high. (The 2010 National Survey on Drug Use and Health finds that 9 percent of Americans over the age of twelve used illegal drugs in the past month.) Changing Realities on the Ground As the U.S.-Mexico security cooperation strategy has evolved, so too have the realities on the ground. The most drastic shift is the rise in violence. When the Merida Initiative was signed in 2007, there were just over two thousand drug-related homicides annually; by 2011, the official number escalated to more than sixteen thousand. Violence also spread from roughly 46 municipalities (mostly along the border and in Sinaloa) to some 225 municipalities throughout Mexico, including the once-safe industrial center of Monterrey and major cities such as Acapulco, Durango, and Guadalajara. This increase in violence is not just the direct result of drug trafficking. Criminal organizations have diversified into numerous illicit businesses, including kidnapping, robbery, human trafficking, extortion, and retail drug sales, and as a result prey more directly on the local population. In some places the violence is as much the work of local gangs concerned with rivalries and honor as it is of drug transit. Prioritizing Civilian Institutions and Communities The need to adapt to the changing realities in Mexico coincides with political change. On December 1, 2012, Enrique Pena Nieto became president. During his campaign, he promised to shift the country's current security strategy away from combating drug trafficking toward reducing violence. The United States has an opportunity with this new administration and legislative branch to push past the current limits on security cooperation and implementation. The U.S. government should continue to provide between $250 million and $300 million a year in Merida money. These funds, which are managed by the State Department's Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement (INL), should prioritize civilian (versus military) law enforcement institutions, and fund training programs and other efforts to professionalize Mexico's police forces and transform its justice system. Long-term sustainable security will only exist when Mexico has a strong civilian-based rule of law, able to take on and punish all types of criminal activity. In addition, U.S. and Mexican joint efforts should concentrate on realizing the other so-far-neglected pillars of the Merida Initiative, particularly modernizing the border and engaging citizens and communities. On the border, the United States should upgrade its roads, bridges, and FAST lanes (express lanes for trusted drivers), as well as increase the number of U.S. customs officers, agricultural specialists, and support staff to help facilitate legal trade and identify and keep out illicit goods. To finance the multibillion dollar cost of modernizing the border, the U.S. Congress should pass the NADBank Enhancement Act (H.R. 2216) or similar legislation, to allow the North American Development Bank to support infrastructure projects in the border regions; currently the bank is limited primarily to environmental initiatives. And it should also reauthorize and refund the Coordinated Border Infrastructure Program, which managed federal funds dedicated for border area roads and infrastructure. In terms of reinforcing local communities, this involves not just particular programs but reorienting U.S. resources and programs in Mexico to focus on state and local law enforcement and justice institutions, where violence and insecurity are most concentrated and devastating. This will mean millions more in funds for the U.S. Agency for International Development's (USAID) community projects and youth programs, as well as INL's training of state and municipal police (as opposed to just federal-level officers). A shift to the local level would also enable policymakers and U.S.-supported programs to recognize and address the varying nature of the violence. In cities such as Ciudad Juárez, local gangs today are perhaps as threatening as transnational drug cartels. USAID should share models developed and implemented in U.S. cities to deal with gang problems, such as those in Boston and Los Angeles and Chicago's Operation Ceasefire initiatives. In addition, it should share the United States' experiences with community policing strategies, alongside basic training and vetting programs that cultivate a close working relationship between law enforcement officers and those they protect. The United States should also move its drug policies away from eradication and interdiction abroad and incarceration at home to greater funding for prevention and rehabilitation, in order to reduce the demand supplied by organized crime. Under the direction of the White House Office on National Drug Control Policy and the U.S. Departments of Health and Human Services, Education, and Justice, new policies should include the expansion of promising pilot programs that deal with addiction, such as Hawaii's Opportunity Probation with Enforcement (HOPE) program, which by swiftly punishing parolees who test positive for drugs has successfully lowered recidivism among a heavy-drug-use population. Though some will prefer to continue an eradication and interdiction–focused international drug control regime, the tens of billions of dollars spent during the now over forty-year war on drugs in Mexico and Latin America suggest the need for a revised policy approach. The outlined initiatives have a greater chance of reducing violence (if not drug flows) in Mexico by strengthening police forces, court systems, and communities. The border improvements, moreover, will likely benefit both the U.S. and Mexican economies, which can have indirect positive effects by providing greater legal opportunities to young people. In the end, Mexico's security will depend on the actions and decisions of Mexico. But there is much the United States can do to help or hinder the process. A transition to a demilitarized justice and a community-focused approach to U.S. security assistance will help Mexico establish more effective and long-lasting tools for combating crime and violence.
  • United States
    Patriot Games
    I coauthored this post with my good friend, colleague, and former intern, Michael Koplow.  He writes his own terrific blog:  ottomansandzionists.com.  Wednesday saw a strange confluence of events surrounding Turkey and its oft-stated determination to intervene in Syria with the help of its Western allies. It began with an unnamed Turkish Foreign Ministry official – presumably Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu – revealing that there have been talks between Turkey and the United States about deploying Patriot missile batteries on the Syrian border. According to this report, the purpose of the Patriots would be to create a safe zone inside of Syria as a way of supporting a limited no-fly zone. This report would have been unusual by itself given that Patriot missiles are an odd vehicle to use for creating a no-fly zone, but it was particularly puzzling given Prime Minister Erdoğan’s statement the day before explicitly disavowing any Turkish intentions to buy Patriot missiles. More drama ensued after Davutoğlu was identified as the official claiming that a NATO deployment of Patriots was imminent, with the Foreign Ministry subsequently denying that Davutoğlu had ever made such a claim. There are a couple of things here that don’t quite seem right. First, Patriot missiles are not what one would typically use to enforce or support a no-fly zone. Patriots are defensive weapons, designed to shoot down incoming missiles and not fix-winged aircraft or helicopters. Their deployment would only  make sense if Ankara were concerned about a barrage of Syria’s Scud missiles tipped with chemical weapons—a largely theoretical threat.   Second, despite the calls for intervention in Syria from some quarters of Washington, the Obama administration has been reluctant to get involved in Syria beyond technical support that may or may not include small arms. Anonymous reports coming out of Turkey the day after the election claiming that the U.S. and NATO are now about to prepare for staging a no-fly zone seem a little more than idle chatter. Neither the White House nor the State Department nor the Pentagon have demonstrated any appetite for getting involved in Syria, with its layers of political, sectarian, and regional complexities that could suck Washington into yet another long-term military and diplomatic commitment in the Muslim world.  Against this backdrop, the recent meeting that the United States orchestrated in Doha to broaden the Syrian opposition was an effort to preclude a greater American involvement in Syria’s civil war. The deployment of the Patriots is likely a precursor to no new initiative, but rather has more to do with U.S. and NATO relations with Turkey.  Ankara, incapable of managing the Syrian crisis on its own, has continually sought  to involve Western powers in a greater way. For much of the past year, Prime Minister Erdoğan has been attempting to drum up support for outside intervention by threatening to unilaterally create a buffer zone inside Syria, making noise about invoking NATO Article 5, calling out the U.S. for dragging its feet while Assad butchers his own people, and implying that NATO is in danger of losing its credibility as the Syrian civil war drags on. Despite a combination of public and private cajoling, Erdoğan has made little headway, and Wednesday’s barrage of leaks and half-truths fits into the pattern of doing anything possible to pull the U.S. into Syria one way or another. By making it seem as if a no-fly zone is a fait accompli, Ankara is hoping to create enough momentum to spur some real action.  Yet rather than respond to the Turkish government’s posturing and efforts to shame the United States and NATO into taking Turkey’s preferred course, Ankara’s allies have sought to placate it with a symbolic dispatch of largely useless weapons. Overall, the announcement that Patriots will be deployed to Turkey fits a pattern that has developed in Turkey’s relations with its traditional partners, who have sought to keep Ankara minimally satisfied without actually having to commit much of anything to Syria. If scattering Patriot missile batteries along the Turkish-Syrian border is the price of keeping Turkey temporarily happy, it’s a pretty small price to pay, and certainly nothing compared to the cost of actually intervening in Syria.
  • Security Alliances
    Japan-South Korea Relations: Time to Open Both Eyes
    There is an old Russian proverb that applies to current Japan-South Korea (ROK) relations: "Forget the past and lose an eye; dwell on the past and lose both eyes!" The Japanese, it would appear, are eager to forget the past, while the Koreans seem unable to see beyond it. It is time now for the United States' two most important Northeast Asian allies to work toward a better future with both eyes open. In some instances the flare-ups in and between Japan and South Korea represent mere political opera with little real substance at stake. But the latest cause for tension—the ROK government's cancellation of both the June 29 signing of the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) and its plan to pursue an equally sensitive (but sensible) military Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement (ACSA) with Japan—has serious national security implications and affects Washington's relations with both nations. It also cost South Korea one of its more forward-thinking strategists, Senior Presidential Secretary for National Security Strategy Kim Tae-hyo, who lost his job. His "sin"? Putting Korea's national interests ahead of public opinion. GSOMIA is a fairly routine agreement outlining procedures to facilitate the sharing of classified defense-related threat information regarding North Korea's nuclear and missile programs and other potential common security challenges. Its adoption would also make trilateral defense cooperation with Washington easier for both Japan and South Korea. Seoul has agreements similar to GSOMIA with some two dozen other countries. An ACSA allows for logistical cooperation when both countries are engaged in humanitarian assistance/ disaster relief and peacekeeping operations. Negotiations for both long-overdue pacts were finalized in May 2012. Unfortunately, that is when public opinion and national emotions took over in South Korea, turning what Professor Jeffrey Hornung described as "a practical, forward-looking effort to strengthen relations between two vibrant democracies facing shared security challenges" into "another casualty of the complexities of politics and history." Still, working behind the scenes, the ROK Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade succeeded in passing GSOMIA through the cabinet. When the Lee government publicly announced its plan to sign the GSOMIA agreement on June 29, while continuing its review of the ACSA, this provided opposition politicians—especially those who pander to citizens with lingering anti-Japanese feelings—with a political windfall they have chosen to exploit. Ruling party politicians have been equally shameful in their response. The South Korean press has also seen fit to help inflame rather than inform the public about the importance of such agreements. Despite the subsequent cancellation of the GSOMIA signing and shelving of the ACSA, the Lee Myung-bak administration continues to pay lip service to the agreements, saying that they have not been scrapped, but merely postponed until a more propitious moment. However, no one sees that happening before the December 2012 ROK presidential election, thus resulting in more precious time wasted. Ironically, along the sidelines of the ASEAN Regional Forum in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, earlier this month, ROK foreign minister Kim Sung-hwan joined U.S. secretary of state Hillary Clinton and Japanese foreign minister Koichiro Gemba in agreeing to form a trilateral consultative body to "promote peace and stability in Northeast Asia." But will genuine consultation and real-world cooperation be possible between Seoul and Tokyo without GSOMIA and an ACSA? It is hard to imagine how. In discussing the history issue, most Japanese and Korean interlocutors seem to agree on only one thing: the ball is in the other one's court. The Japanese claim, not without some merit, is that Tokyo has both acknowledged and apologized numerous times for its crimes during World War II: "How much longer," they ask, "are we to be punished for the sins of our great-grandfathers?" But other Japanese cannot seem to resist keeping the flames alive, claiming that the past never occurred or, more frequently, that it was not as bad as critics claim. Their argument that "only" eighty thousand Korean women, rather than the two hundred thousand that some Korean assert, were forced into slavery, only demonstrates insensitivity and a lack of remorse. Official Japanese government protests against "comfort women" statues that are springing up in the United States and South Korea further inflame the situation and prompt even more statues to be commissioned. Tokyo should remember that democracies promote and guard "freedom of expression." The same goes for South Koreans who insist that the government of Japan issue a formal apology every time a private citizen or parliamentarian utters a preposterous statement denying what everyone knows is fact. The most sensible U.S. response to the history debate is to say and do as little as possible. When faced with a lose-lose situation between two allies, it is normally more sensible not to play the game. But U.S. territory is now part of the extended battlefield, and U.S. security interests are being at least peripherally affected. Seldom has a situation seemed more appropriate for a preventive diplomacy intervention than the current comfort women dispute between Tokyo and Seoul. The history dispute goes beyond the forced sexual slavery of Korean (and Filipino, Indonesian, Chinese, and other, including even Japanese) women by the Japanese Red Army during World War II, and there are territorial issues as well, but the comfort women issue has become the poster child and rallying point and must be dealt with first. As an ally and trusted friend of both Japan and South Korea, the United States is well situated to play the mediator role, assuming both sides ask for the intervention—the first rule of preventive diplomacy is that outside assistance is voluntarily sought and accepted. President Obama should privately offer to provide an impartial mediator to help craft a statement that both sides can accept, in order to finally settle or at least depoliticize this issue, such as former president Bill Clinton or former national security adviser Brent Scowcroft. President Lee, along with his Japanese counterpart Prime Minister Noda Yoshihiko, has a golden opportunity to help Koreans and Japanese face the future with both eyes open by seeking and accepting outside mediation to put this cancerous issue behind for the sake of both nations. Or he, and the people of Korea, can remain consumed and blinded by their tragic past. Though public sentiment in a democracy is important, one should keep in mind the comments attributed to a former U.S. president who, when reportedly asked if he knew what the American people really thought about a particular issue, replied, "I know what they damn well ought to think about it." It is this type of leadership that is needed most in Japan and South Korea right now to get beyond the past.
  • Defense and Security
    Canada’s Security Agenda
    Canada’s military is managing its role in Afghanistan against new security concerns in the Arctic, and is looking to increase its capacity in an age when other NATO countries are cutting back on spending, says Canadian Rear Admiral David Gardam.
  • Security Alliances
    A Changing East Asia and U.S. Foreign Policy
    The rise of China is precipitating a power transition in East Asia. China has become the top trading partner of almost every country in the region. Its military power is increasing to match that of the United States. Asymmetrical interdependence between China and other regional states across various dimensions continues to grow. East Asia has also been experiencing structural changes. Despite some progress in modernizing the U.S.-led alliance system, U.S. bilateral alliances have been relatively static, while minilateral or multilateral organizations and institutions are advancing. The East Asia Summit (EAS), China-Japan-South Korea (C-J-K) Summit, ASEAN+ 3 (Association of Southeast Asian Nations plus China, Japan, and South Korea), and the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) have become active and are expected to expand their respective roles and areas of influence. The increasing dynamism resulting from integration and cooperation among the countries in the region has become visible and multidimensional. Still, other regional dynamics may impede this integration and serve as sources of conflict. Nationalism, territorial disputes, and unresolved historical issues have recently become more contentious. Furthermore, the uncertain outcome of ongoing political transformation and democratization in certain countries may create instability. Ultimately, the changing region is best characterized as "iAsia"—or an Asia of inequality, integration, innovation, investment, and instability. U.S. Policy Toward the Asia-Pacific Against this backdrop, President Barack Obama has indicated his administration's intention to refocus U.S. policy toward the Asia-Pacific region. This agenda reflects the rediscovery of the importance of the Transpacific axis in the twenty-first century in various dimensions from security to economics. Engagement and enlargement capture the basic direction of this Obama policy, which includes the following elements: strengthening traditional alliances strengthening partnerships with other regional countries managing and developing a cooperative relationship with China participating in and working with multilateral regional mechanisms developing and strengthening trade relations (through the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement and the Trans-Pacific Partnership) How the Obama administration will implement this policy remains to be seen. But the following concerns should be taken into account. First, the United States has been arguing that it is an Asia-Pacific country. Unfortunately, such rhetoric has not been substantiated through concrete policy or action. Despite the emergence of new challenges, such as the rise of China and intensified North Korean provocations, the United States has maintained nearly the same level of engagement and presence in the region since the end of the Cold War. It continues to appear preoccupied with the Middle East. Furthermore, throughout the Bush administration, rather than underscore the importance of U.S. forward deployment in East Asia, the United States highlighted the concept of strategic flexibility, which emphasizes the option of redeploying forces in the region elsewhere. Also, unlike China, the United States has been passive in various regional dialogue mechanisms. Its ties with the region have been overwhelmed by China's regional ties in security, economy, and trade. In turn, the overall credibility of U.S. policy toward the region is questioned by its allies and partners in the region. Second, U.S. policy has been relatively reactive to regional dynamics. The United States has not paid sufficient attention to the unfolding changes in the region, and its policies are selective and issue-based, rather than comprehensive. This aspect of U.S. foreign policy toward the region has inspired skepticism among East Asian countries about whether the United States has a clear vision for the Asia-Pacific. Third, the U.S. approach in this region has been driven by traditional concerns and concepts of security. Consequently, it has relied primarily on its bilateral alliances with the Republic of Korea (ROK), Japan, and Australia. Though Washington often stresses the parallel or complementary development of bilateral and multilateral cooperation mechanisms and institutions, it usually defers to (or prefers) the former. Countries in the region have other security concerns, however, and may prefer alternative mechanisms to address them. Future Concerns and Recommendations Most East Asian states welcome the Asia pivot as a stabilizing force in the face of China's rising influence. However, the United States should establish the reliability of its regional policy through sustainability and consistency. To achieve these objectives, the United States should strengthen its relationships with the region across various dimensions and issue areas, not only through verbal commitments but through concrete action. It should try to build a system for regional cooperation and integration so as to become a real "resident power" in the region. The United States should operationalize its stated commitment to the region. China may consider the U.S. approach toward East Asia a policy of encirclement and employ countermeasures. U.S. allies or partners may be forced to make a strategic choice between the United States and China. This will be a significant challenge, as China's relations with these countries are so complex and intertwined that the decision to side with the United States will be costly. It is imperative that the United States understand this. Ultimately, U.S. ability to strengthen cooperation with China will be a determining factor of the success of its policy toward the region. The United States should discuss with its allies and partners the form and conditions of the desired regional architecture. Though there is talk about peace, stability, and prosperity, there have been few, if any, meetings that have comprehensively assessed and forecasted the future regional strategic environment. Without a clear and common vision with guiding principles for the region, it will be impossible to overcome strategic distrust. Efforts must also be made to devise an action plan to attain the desired regional architecture and end-state. The United States should think of ways to make bilateral and multilateral mechanisms mutually complementary. This approach will require that Washington enhance its visibility in the existing multilateral forums and engage in issue-driven cooperation either in minilateral or multilateral form, especially in nontraditional security. Finally, in this time of financial constraint, careful management of burden sharing, budgets, roles, missions, and capabilities will be critical for maintaining and strengthening domestic support for U.S. alliances in the region. The United States should take into account the concerns of its allies and partners and enhance its understanding of regional dynamics in East Asia. For that purpose, strategic dialogue with regional countries should be strengthened and expanded. U.S. participation in and contribution to multilateral forums should also be encouraged. And parallel and mutually reinforcing development of bi- and multilateral cooperation will help the United States become a true resident power in East Asia.
  • Nonproliferation, Arms Control, and Disarmament
    The Global Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime
    This page is part of the multimedia Global Governance Monitor. Scope of the Challenge Nuclear weapons proliferation, whether by state or nonstate actors, poses one of the greatest threats to international security today. Iran's apparent efforts to acquire nuclear weapons, what amounts to North Korean nuclear blackmail, and the revelation of the A.Q. Khan black market nuclear network all underscore the far-from-remote possibility that a terrorist group or a so-called rogue state will acquire weapons of mass destruction or materials for a dirty bomb. The problem of nuclear proliferation is global, and any effective response must also be multilateral. Nine states (China, France, India, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) are known or believed to have nuclear weapons, and more than thirty others (including Japan, Germany, and South Korea) have the technological ability to quickly acquire them. Amid volatile energy costs, the accompanying push to expand nuclear energy, growing concerns about the environmental impact of fossil fuels, and the continued diffusion of scientific and technical knowledge, access to dual-use technologies seems destined to grow. In the background, a nascent global consensus regarding the need for substantial nuclear arms reductions, if not complete nuclear disarmament, has increasingly taken shape. In April 2009, for instance, U.S. president Barack Obama reignited global nonproliferation efforts through a landmark speech in Prague. Subsequently, in September of the same year, the UN Security Council (UNSC) unanimously passed Resolution 1887, which called for accelerated efforts toward total nuclear disarmament. In December 2011, the number of states who have ratified the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty increased to 157, heightening appeals to countries such as the United States, Israel, and Iran to follow suit. Overall, the existing global nonproliferation regime is a highly developed example of international law. Yet, despite some notable successes, existing multilateral institutions have failed to prevent states such as India, Pakistan, and North Korea from "going nuclear," and seem equally ill-equipped to check Iran as well as potential threats from nonstate terrorist groups. The current framework must be updated and reinforced if it is to effectively address today's proliferation threats, let alone pave the way for the "peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons." Strengths and Weaknesses Overall Assessment: Progress but crucial tests ahead International instruments for combating nuclear proliferation were largely successful before 1991, but are proving unable to meet today's challenges. Although three states (India, Israel, and Pakistan) are known or believed to have acquired nuclear weapons during the Cold War, for five decades following the development of nuclear technology, only nine states have developed—and since 1945 none has used—nuclear weapons. However, arguably not a single known or suspected case of proliferation since the early 1990s—Pakistan, Iraq, Iran, North Korea, Libya, or Syria—was deterred or reversed by the multilateral institutions created for this purpose. The continued advancement of Iran's nuclear program—despite the implementation of crosscutting economic sanctions and near universal global condemnation—has elicited serious concerns from states including Israel, the United States, and Saudi Arabia. Additionally, recent nonproliferation success stories, such as Libya's abandoning its nuclear program in 2003 and the accession of all of the Soviet successor states except Russia to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) as nonnuclear weapon states, have been the result of direct government-to-government negotiations and pressure rather than action by global bodies. In dealing with today's proliferation challenges, international organizations work in tandem with ad hoc forums of interested parties, such as the Six Party Talks on North Korea, the P5+1 grouping on Iran, and the most recent development of biannual global nuclear security summits. But such forums have often proven inadequate to arrest the spread of nuclear technology, and states such as Iran and North Korea continue to pursue nuclear capability, if not outright weaponization. Given these trends, rising doubts about the sustainability of the nonproliferation regime are no surprise. But nonproliferation as an international issue has recently benefited from revived attention. The United States and Russia signed a legally binding replacement agreement to the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), which expired in December 2009. New START entered into force in February 2011. President Obama has made nuclear issues a centerpiece of his international agenda, convening a high-level Nuclear Security Summit in April 2010, dedicating serious political effort to strengthen the NPT at the NPT Review in May 2010, and building consensus in the UN Security Council and elsewhere for new economic sanctions targeting Iran. The Obama administration has also pledged to win U.S. Senate ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) and reduce the role of nuclear weapons in U.S. defense doctrine. Recently, it initiated discussions with the Pentagon about potential deep cuts to the U.S. nuclear arsenal. Yet even with these renewed efforts, major challenges and threats remain, namely with regard to Iran and North Korea. Establishing a normative and legal framework: Fairly comprehensive, but with significant gaps The Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) is the core component of the global nonproliferation regime, and establishes a comprehensive, legally binding framework based on three principles: (1) states without nuclear weapons as of 1967—a year before the treaty opened for signature—agree not to acquire them; (2) the five states known to have tested nuclear weapons as of 1967—the nuclear weapon states (NWS)—agree to not assist other states in acquiring them and to move toward eventual disarmament; and (3) the non-nuclear weapons states (NNWS) are guaranteed access to civilian nuclear technology and energy development. NNWS are subject to safeguards to ensure that materials and technology from civilian activities are not diverted to weapons programs. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is the implementing body for the NPT, monitoring compliance with the treaty and assisting NNWS in developing civilian technology. Although the scope and mandate of the NPT and the IAEA are relatively broad, there is a critical gap in coverage: 189 states are party to the treaty, but three of the world's nine nuclear powers—India, Israel, and Pakistan—have never joined, and a fourth—North Korea—withdrew in 2003. Thus, even if enforcement of the existing regime were not an issue, nearly half of the world's nuclear-armed states are excluded from its provisions. By design, the NPT does not address proliferation by nonstate actors. After the September 11 attacks, the UN Security Council (UNSC) adopted Resolution 1540, a legally binding instrument requiring all UN member states to enact and enforce measures to prevent nonstate actors from acquiring WMD. Many states in the UN General Assembly, however, have argued that the UNSC did not have the authority to impose a binding resolution in this area. Partly as a result, some states have resisted cooperation with the 1540 Committee established to oversee implementation of the resolution. The UNSC, however, recommitted itself to 1540 in April 2011 with Resolution 1977, extending the mandate of the 1540 Committee by ten years. In addition to resistance facing the implementation of Resolution 1540, the legally binding Cnovention on Nuclear Terrorism—which defines nuclear terrorism and requires international cooperation to prevent and punish such acts—had only seventy-nine parties as of June 2012. Moreover, two important elements of the nonproliferation regime have never come into effect, largely because of resistance by the United States and other nuclear weapon states. The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) of 1996 has been signed by 183 countries but cannot enter into force until all forty-four states with significant military or civilian nuclear capacity ratify it. China, India, Israel, Pakistan, and the United States have not yet done so. Efforts to conclude a Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty (FMCT) to ban the production of weapons-grade material have also stalled. The United States has been criticized for blocking progress on both issues, but the Obama administration has signaled that it will move to again ask the Senate's advice and consent on ratification of the CTBT (the body rejected the treaty in 1999) and to revive negotiations on an FMCT with verification measures. A review of the NPT in 2010 concluded with modest success. The final outcome document recommits signatories to the principles of the treaty, provides some specific action plans for nonproliferation and disarmament, and calls for the elimination of nuclear weapons from the Middle East through the establishment of a nuclear weapons-free zone in the region. The need for unanimous agreement resulted in some new U.S. initiatives, such as stronger verification requirements, being eliminated from the final document. Preventing proliferation by state actors: Poor record on compliance, continued risk of breakout Despite the broad legal coverage of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), a string of failures since the early 1990s have highlighted the ineffectiveness of existing nonproliferation instruments to deter would-be nuclear weapon states. In theory, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) can refer countries that do not comply with the NPT to the UN Security Council (UNSC), which in turn can impose sanctions or other punitive measures. In practice, however, political calculations have often caused deadlock at the UNSC, enabling nuclear rogues such as Iran to defy successive, fairly weak UN sanctions resolutions with virtual impunity. The IAEA did, however, refer Syria to the UNSC in June 2011 due to an "absence of confidence that Syria's nuclear program is exclusively for peaceful purposes." Another problem is the lack of adequate verification and enforcement mechanisms available to the IAEA, whose budget, intelligence capabilities, and technological resources fall far short of what would be needed to detect, prevent, or punish NPT violations. In 2010, the IAEA's inspections budget was approximately $164 million. Not surprisingly, even discounting nuclear facilities the IAEA does not have access to, such as those in Iran and North Korea, nuclear materials have reached the black market from installations under IAEA safeguards, namely, from several in Pakistan. One positive step has been the adoption of IAEA Additional Protocols, which strengthen the agency's inspections mandate and is in force in 115 countries, including all five recognized nuclear weapon states and, as of 2009, India. Nonetheless, more than half of all NPT member states—including Syria and Iran (which has ratified but not implemented the protocol)—have yet to agree to the toughened inspections regime. A review of the NPT in 2010 failed to reach consensus on U.S. efforts to make the additional protocols mandatory. Other multilateral, informal organizations also play a role in implementing and enforcing the NPT, notably the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). Made up of forty-six advanced nuclear states, the NSG prohibits the transfer of civilian nuclear materials or technology to states outside the NPT, or those that do not fully comply with IAEA safeguards. However, the NSG's export bans are not legally binding, and members (including the United States, Russia, and China) have taken advantage of the weakness of the NSG regime to pursue civilian nuclear projects with non-NPT members. Interdicting illicit nuclear transfers: Some progress since 2001 In addition to legal frameworks, several multilateral initiatives have been created in recent years to improve international coordination in preventing nuclear terrorism. The Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism (GICNT), launched in 2006, seeks to coordinate international efforts to detect, investigate, and respond to proliferation by nonstate actors. Alongside the efforts of the GICNT, many countries are developing a comprehensive detection mechanism to monitor trafficking in nuclear material and related financial transactions. The U.S.-led Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI), established in 2003, today involves more than ninety-eight countries in developing the best practices, joint training exercises, and information-sharing activities to improve multilateral interdiction efforts. Although often cited as a flexible approach to coordinating the international response to proliferation, PSI does not grant any legal authority for ship-boarding or interdiction beyond the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea Treaty and various bilateral agreements. India and China, which do not participate in PSI, have questioned the legality of its interdictions. PSI also cannot interdict ships of nonmember states unless master consents to being boarded are allowed, such as Iran and Pakistan. Whether the 2003 interdiction of a ship supplying nuclear materials to Libya was the direct result of PSI activities, for example, is still disputed. Analysts have also criticized the PSI for being a club of developed economies and not addressing the problem of increasing independence among a growing number of developing countries and nonstate actors from the controls enacted by the traditional supporters of the nuclear establishment. Others have pointed out that the initiative is limited by having neither an independent budget nor coordinating mechanisms, and does not provide a legal framework in which to lock in long-term, verifiable, and irreversible member state commitments. However, as a sign that progress may be forthcoming, the United and States and China jointly installed a nuclear radiation detection system at the Yangshan port in Shanghai in December 2011. Two years earlier, the U.S. Navy was also able to successfully pressure a North Korean vessel—which many suspected to be carrying illicit nuclear weapons materials destined for Myanmar—to return to port by tailing the ship in open waters. Securing fissile material and nuclear arsenals: Significant progress since the 1990s, but incomplete Possibly the most successful element of the nonproliferation regime has been the effort to secure so-called loose nukes and fissile material throughout the former Soviet Union. This is critical given that some 135 nuclear facilities worldwide use highly enriched uranium (HEU) as fuel—enough HEU to create some 400 nuclear weapons. If terrorist or criminal groups were able to buy or steal even a small portion of this material, they could use it to construct [PDF] a crude nuclear weapon or dirty bomb. The United States and Russia have led this effort since 1991. By 2011, some 92 percent of sites in the former Soviet Union with weapons-usable nuclear material had been secured. U.S.-funded efforts such as the Cooperative Threat Reduction program, Global Threat Reduction Initiative, and the Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism have been complemented by other multilateral initiatives, such as the Group of Eight Global Partnership against the Spread of WMD, which has provided funding and technical assistance to secure nuclear facilities, repatriate fissile material to origin countries, and promote international cooperation to counter proliferation. In late 2011, the importance of securing nuclear material came into focus again following the collapse of Muammar al-Qaddafi's regime in Libya. In September 2011, ten thousand drums of uranium yellowcake were discovered in a Libyan warehouse, virtually unguarded, although a UN official claimed the material was only "slightly" radioactive and did not pose an immediate threat. The Obama administration brought additional attention to this issue, pledging to secure all vulnerable nuclear weapons materials by 2014 and convening a high-level global nuclear security summits in 2010 and 2012. The 2010 summit yielded tangible results, with Ukraine announcing that it would get rid of all its Soviet-era highly enriched uranium, and five other countries stating intentions to convert their research reactors to run on low-enriched uranium, which is less dangerous. The next global nuclear security summit is planned for 2014 and will take place in the Netherlands. A related concern, ranging from pioneering nuclear powers like the United States to more recent powers like Pakistan, is the security of nuclear arsenals, specifically regarding safeguarding warheads from accidents, theft, or unauthorized use. The security of Pakistan's arsenal is a serious concern, especially for the United States. Reports have emerged that nuclear warheads are often transported on normal roads with little to no protection. While Pakistan has always countered that its arsenal is secure, some U.S. officials have voiced concern about the possibility of one of Pakistan's weapons falling into the hands of terrorists. Similarly, there have been repeated safety issues related to the U.S. nuclear arsenal. In 2007 and 2008, two nuclear safety incidents prompted Secretary of Defense Roberts Gates to institute high-level leadership shifts within the U.S. military. In November 2011 a damaged component of an unarmed intercontinental ballistic missile prompted a partial evacuation and emergency response at a U.S. Air Force base in North Dakota. In July 2012, activists broke into the Y-12 National Security Complex in Tennessee. It would later come to light that security weaknesses had been discovered at the facility two years previously. These incidents demonstrate that ensuring the safety and security of nuclear arsenal remains a serious and important issue—even for countries with decades of experience with nuclear weapons. Oversight of civilian nuclear programs and dual-use technologies: Inadequate monitoring and verification mechanisms Some analysts note that the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), which guarantees states' rights to develop civilian nuclear technology, enables a peaceful path to proliferation through fuel cycle activities. Many of the processes used to produce civilian nuclear power can be converted to military ends. As noted, the International Atomic Energy Agency does not have the capacity to adequately monitor every nuclear site. Iran has almost certainly used its civilian program as a cover for illicit weapons activities. The challenge of monitoring and verifying NPT safeguards will likely only increase as more countries look to nuclear power to offset volatile energy prices and reduce reliance on carbon-based fuels. In particular, several Middle Eastern countries that currently lack robust civilian nuclear programs have increasingly looked to diversify their economies through nuclear power. Other than safety risks commonly linked with the development of civilian nuclear programs, other countries may also fear that such programs will be used in the future to develop nuclear weapons. The latter concern is most commonly discussed in reference to Iran potentially developing nuclear weapons—regardless of that country's repeated assertions that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes—and how such a development could affect regional security dynamics in the Middle East. Disarmament: Not enough action toward nuclear disarmament by NWS The five recognized nuclear weapon states have committed under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) to pursue in good faith nuclear disarmament and a treaty on general and complete disarmament. The NPT does not specify an end-date for achieving disarmament. Although almost everyone believes that complete disarmament or even nuclear disarmament remains a distant goal, the record of NWS on pursuing nuclear disarmament is mixed. At the 1995 NPT Review Conference, in return for agreement from the nonnuclear weapon states to extend the treaty indefinitely, the United States and other nuclear powers reaffirmed their commitment to nuclear disarmament. But despite major cuts in the numbers of U.S. and Russian operationally deployed nuclear warheads, both countries still retain massive stockpiles that account for more than 90 percent of the world's nuclear weapons. Many NNWS have repeatedly called for the NWS to make even deeper reductions in their arsenals and argued that the NWS foot-dragging is undermining the legitimacy of the NPT. This perceived failure to make progress toward disarmament has been one factor in the unwillingness of many UN members to support sanctions against Iran for NPT violations, which many developing countries see as a justifiable—even admirable—response to the hypocrisy of the nuclear weapon states. In 2010, the U.S. government revealed it had 5,113 warheads in its nuclear arsenal. Recently, the NWS have recommitted themselves to reductions in nuclear arms, particularly in the New START Treaty and the outcome document of the 2010 NPT Review Conference. There are also reports that, due to heightened fiscal pressure, the Obama administration is considering deep cuts to the U.S. nuclear arsenal. However, specific estimates for the cuts vary, and it is unclear if reducing the U.S. nuclear arsenal would be a politically viable option. U.S. Nonproliferation Policy Issues Introduction: The United States deserves both praise and criticism for its recent policies on nonproliferation. On one hand, since the Cold War, the United States has been at the forefront of efforts to secure nuclear material and facilities worldwide, spending more than any other country through programs such as Cooperative Threat Reduction and the Proliferation Security Initiative. However, efforts to reduce and reverse the spread of nuclear weapons technology took up only a small part of the resources devoted to nuclear weapons and defense under the Bush administration. According to an independent analysis, the entire 2008 U.S. budget for programs to secure nuclear material around the world was only $250 million—less than the cost of one day of the Iraq war. After September 11, the Bush administration led the world in creating international normative and legal frameworks to address the threat of nuclear proliferation by nonstate actors, supporting the passage of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1540 and the Nuclear Terrorism Convention (which the United States signed but has not ratified). On the other hand, the administration did not support efforts to broaden constraints on states' nuclear weapons programs, refusing, for example, to accept verification measures as part of any treaty banning the production of fissile material, and failing to push for Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) ratification. President Bush did call for, and achieved, a 65 percent reduction in U.S. operationally deployed strategic nuclear weapons. But the Bush administration's position on missile defense (among other issues) hampered bilateral negotiations with Russia and contributed to the failure to extend the seminal U.S.-Russia Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) before its expiration at the end of 2009. The much weaker 2002 Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT) requires the countries to dismantle—not destroy—only a portion of their warheads. The United States and Russia have signed and ratified a treaty to replace START—New START—which limits both countries to 1,550 operationally deployed nuclear weapons. It entered into force in February 2011. By contrast, President Obama laid out his vision for a new nonproliferation strategy in Prague in April 2009, where he reaffirmed "America's commitment to seek the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons." In doing so, he pledged that the United States would reduce the role of nuclear weapons in the U.S. national security strategy, negotiate a new START treaty with Russia, pursue U.S. ratification of the CTBT, strengthen the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) with increased resources and authority for international inspectors, work toward building a new framework for civil nuclear cooperation and an international fuel bank, and create a new international effort to secure vulnerable material globally within four years. The April 2010 Nuclear Posture Review identifies nuclear terrorism and nuclear proliferation as urgent threats, necessitating a U.S. nuclear policy focused on rebuilding the nuclear nonproliferation regime through international efforts. Despite President Obama's shift in tone from the Bush administration, several nonproliferation issues continue to spark debate in the United States. Should the U.S. pursue deep cuts in its nuclear arsenal? No: The U.S. nuclear arsenal—already subject to significant cuts through the 2011 New START Treaty—should not be further reduced as suggested by the January 2012 policy planning document, Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense. First, pursuing cuts to the nuclear arsenal, possibly to as few as three hundred warheads, risks damaging perceptions of the viability of the U.S. nuclear umbrella, which covers critical U.S. allies like Germany and Japan. Furthermore, the United States needs a robust nuclear arsenal to counter threats from states like North Korea and Iran, who regularly flout international accords and norms. For example, despite North Korea's February 2012 compromise with the United States to accept a moratorium on the testing of long-range missiles and nuclear weapon in exchange for food aid, it broke the accord just two months later after attempted to test what it claimed was a satellite, but more likely was a long-range missile. It followed this effort with a successful launch of a satellite in December 2012. According to a recent International Atomic Energy Agency report, it is increasingly apparent that Iran's nuclear program is not peaceful in nature, and that Tehran may be moving closer to developing a nuclear weapon. The United States also needs to be mindful of threats from great power countries like Russia and China. Russia, despite acceding to the New START Treaty in 2011, still has a larger nuclear arsenal than the United States, and has even threatened to target U.S. plans for a strengthened missile defense system in Europe. In addition, reports have emerged that China's nuclear arsenal is substantially larger than originally projected and growing. U.S. congressional representative Trent Franks claims that further reductions to the U.S. nuclear arsenal would encourage proliferation by countries seeking to outdo the United States, calling plans for deep cuts "reckless lunacy." Now, more than ever, the United States should avoid a major alteration of its nuclear posture and reassure its friends and allies that its deterrent capability remains robust. Yes: Moving forward with the nuclear weapons strategy put forth in the Obama administration's Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense document to "maintain a safe, secure, and effective nuclear deterrent" would strengthen national security and make U.S. defense spending more efficient. Substantial reductions to the number of nuclear weapons in the U.S. arsenal is unlikely to harm U.S. national security interests given that the United States can still rely on its advanced conventional military capabilities. Additionally, a large stockpile of nuclear weapons is ill-suited to addressing current threats the United States faces from other countries. International sanctions targeting Iran's nuclear program, for example, have escalated, increasing pressure on the Iranian regime to change course. Moreover, even if Iran did develop a nuclear weapon capability, some believe it is extremely unlikely the regime would ever use nuclear weapons due to an assured counterattack from the United States or Israel. North Korea, which resumed multilateral negotiations over its nuclear program and recently agreed to a moratorium on nuclear weapons tests, is estimated to possess only a dozen weapons. Moreover, despite fears of a new Cold War between the United States and China, nuclear weapons appear increasingly exogenous to Sino-U.S. ties—especially given the recent warming of relations between China and Taiwan. Some experts have also pointed out that the size of the U.S. nuclear arsenal inadvertently encourages nuclear weapons proliferation by rogue states by placing too much value on nuclear weapons. Should the international community move toward universal nuclear disarmament? Yes: In a groundbreaking op-ed piece in the Wall Street Journal in January 2007, U.S. foreign policy heavyweights George Shultz, Henry Kissinger, William Perry, and Sam Nunn set out the vision of a world free of nuclear weapons and ways in which the United States can lead the world toward this goal. The essay argued that relying on nuclear weapons for deterrence purposes was "becoming increasingly hazardous and decreasingly effective."As preliminary steps, authors called for substantial reductions in the size of the U.S. nuclear arsenal, elimination of short-range forward-deployed nuclear weapons, ratification of the Comprhensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), creation of an international nuclear fuel bank, and a halt to the production of fissile material (which the United States has not produced since 1988). Because calls for disarmament had previously been viewed as the purview of the Democratic party, the piece's high-profile authorship helped shift the debate within U.S. government and other policy circles. President Obama has endorsed this perspective by calling for a world free of nuclear weapons. In addition, UN secretary-general Ban Ki-moon has called global nuclear disarmament a "concrete possibility." Many who support universal global nuclear disarmament posit that a legally binding convention on nuclear weapons is the best means of achieving universal nuclear disarmament. One prominent pro-disarmament nongovernmental organization suggests that such a binding global convention could be practically implemented by all nuclear capable states by 2030. No: Opponents of nuclear disarmament argue that it would actually encourage would-be proliferators like Iran, which would have far more to gain and less to lose by acquiring nuclear weapons. Many experts, including the authors of the Wall Street Journal piece, also believe that the U.S. nuclear umbrella has been a primary factor in preventing allies such as Japan, South Korea, and Turkey from seeking nuclear weapons, and that U.S. disarmament, in particular, could spark regional arms races elsewhere. Critics of a convention on nuclear weapons also raise concerns of the political feasibility of reaching an agreement on such a contentious issue. Specifically, the UN organ that would be entrusted with drafting such a covenant, the UN Conference on Disarmament, operates by consensus and has historically faced serious internal divisions. Another common critique is that an international convention banning nuclear weapons would require an intrusive verification regime, which many states might be unwilling to accept. Furthermore, such a covenant could have the unintended effect of nuclear blackmail by a rogue state that covertly develops nuclear weapons. North Korea's 2003 decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty demonstrates the risks that the international community could by agreeing to such a convention. Should the United States ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty? Yes: The Bush administration claimed to support the CTBT, which was rejected by the U.S. Senate in 1999, but did not push for ratification while in office. Proponents point out that Washington already observes a de facto moratorium on testing, and that new technology and initiatives such as the Stockpile Stewardship Program mean that the United States can retain its nuclear capabilities without testing. They add that monitoring technology would deter cheating by detecting any secret testing on a scale large enough to ensure that weapons are reliable. Supporters of the CTBT also note that President Clinton pledged to ratify the treaty in 1995, and that doing so might encourage other states, such as India and China, to do the same. President Obama has stated his support for the treaty and his intent to seek Senate ratification, putting Vice President Biden in charge of this effort. No: Critics argue that the CTBT would limit the United States' ability to maintain functional weapons for defensive and deterrence purposes, and could eventually lead to what has been referred to as involuntary disarmament. Opponents [PDF] also believe that the treaty would be impossible to monitor or enforce and that cheaters could use secret tests to advance their nuclear programs, possibly putting the United States at a disadvantage. Finally, they argue that only a strong U.S. nuclear deterrent and not arms control treaties, which the international community will ignore, can dissuade other states from acquiring nuclear weapons. Should the United States go ahead with missile defense? Yes: Supporters say missile defense will protect the United States against nuclear-armed, adversarial states such as North Korea and, in particular Iran, where deterrence may not work because the the rationality of highlevel leaders is in doubt." Some believe this threat is likely; others, such as former undersecretary of defense Paul Wolfowitz, said that even if the threat were only possible, Americans have a duty to use existing missile defense technology to protect themselves. Supporters of missile defense believe that the program will overcome most of the technological hurdles it now faces, and some note that even if the system isn't perfect, the difficulty of overcoming the defense will be enough to deter enemies. They are also likely to point to the successful deployment of a missile defense radar system in Turkey in 2012 as well as the successful use of Iron Dome missile defense in Israel during the Gaza-Israel clashes in March 2012. No: Opponents argue that policymakers should reallocate the considerable resources absorbed by the missile defense system to more imminent, and arguably more plausible, dangers such as terrorists smuggling improvised nuclear devices into the United States in cargo containers. A great technological leap is required, they note, to move from building a nuclear bomb (as North Korea appears to have done, and as Iran may be close to doing) and designing a reliable warhead that can be loaded onto a missile. Opponents also argue that, because the United States would be able to identify the geographical origin of an incoming missile within seconds from launch, the near certainty of a devastating U.S. retaliation guarantees a strong deterrent against any such attack. Some of these critics also dislike the sense of invulnerability that such a system would lend to the United States, which, they worry, could lead Washington to take increasingly unilateral policies in a variety of areas, potentially alienating friends and antagonizing others. During the 2008 presidential campaign, then candidate Barack Obama promised to "responsibly deploy missile defenses that would protect us and our allies," but "only when the system works." The European missile defense system being pursued by the Obama administration has fewer technical barriers than the one proposed by the Bush administration. Nonetheless, Russia has suggested it will target the missile defense systems in Europe unless it receives guarantees from the United States and NATO that the system will not threaten Russia's strategic interests. Should the United States introduce new weapon components into its nuclear arsenal? Yes: The National Nuclear Security Administration, the agency in charge of nuclear weapons within the Department of Energy, has recommended updating the U.S. nuclear arsenal to adapt it to post-Cold War scenarios and ensure its long-term dependability, leading to debates over plans to develop a reliable replacement warhead that would be easier to maintain and would not require nuclear testing. Although Congress decided not to fund the originally proposed Reliable Replacement Warhead (RRW) Program, advocates of the idea, including Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, have argued that current methods of maintaining the nuclear stockpile will work only in the short term and that ensuring a strong nuclear deterrent is a fundamental U.S. national security interest. They note that, should the United States one day no longer be able to reproduce the materials and devices it used during the Cold War, it may find itself having to choose between letting its arsenal fade into irrelevance or resume weapons testing. No: Opponents say that there are no technical reasons to doubt the soundness of the current stockpile maintenance system. They point to the Stockpile Stewardship Programand the Warhead Life Extension Program as evidence that confidence in the safety, security, and reliability of the U.S. nuclear arsenal can be maintained without nuclear tests or the development of new nuclear weapons. Opponents also worry that the RRW may undermine the nonproliferation consensus, either because other states will believe that it adds capability to U.S. weapons or because it may eventually require nuclear testing. They believe that RRW may be prohibitively expensive, and that the current system ensures an adequate, long-term nuclear deterrent. The Obama administration's April 2010 Nuclear Posture Review asserts that the United States will not build new nuclear warheads. Should the international community do more to engage states like North Korea and Iran? Yes: While states such as Iran and North Korea admittedly present a challenge to the international community—whether in terms of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty or threats to regional stability—experts contend engagement should trump confrontation. Although international sanctions targeting Iran's nuclear program have recently expanded amid increasing calls for preemptive military strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, Tehran remains resolute. With that said, talks are slated to begin once again in February 2013 after recent delays. Similarly, despite prolonged sanctions and international isolation, North Korea has retained its nuclear arsenal. On the other hand, proponents of engagement argue [PDF] that negotiations have yielded concrete results by checking both countries' nuclear ambitions. Overall, supporters of engagement argue that more coercive approaches would not only preclude the United States and international community from reaching any compromise from such states, but would also unhinge regional stability and facilitate nuclear proliferation. They also argue that advocates of more hard-line strategies exaggerate the risks of nuclear proliferation by states such as Iran and North Korea, as well as underrate the value of deterrence and the mutually assured destruction to ensure stability and prevent the use of nuclear weapons. No: Rather than squander efforts on engagement, the international community should take a harder line on intransigent states such as North Korea and Iran to halt nuclear proliferation. Time and time again, diplomatic negotiations—whether in the form of the Six Party Talks with North Korea or multilateral negotiations with Iran—have yielded little in terms of substantive results. North Korea, for instance, has continued to conduct nuclear tests and repeatedly threatened to attack South Korea, a critical U.S. ally. Iran also appears to be moving closer to achieving nuclear weapons capability, and is openly enriching uranium up to 20 percent. Either of these countries could also attempt to exporttechnical expertise abroad, risking proliferation of sensitive missile and nuclear technology to states such as Syria or Myanmar. In general, those who favor coercive approaches argue that negotiations are little more than delaying tactics rather than genuine attempts to reach an agreement. Additionally, both North Korea and Iran can count on the support of powerful allies on the UN Security Council—Russia or China—and thus have little incentive to change course. Specifically, the United States and others should prioritize measures including suspending foreign aid (in terms of North Korea), expanding economic sanctions, launching covert espionage missions, and, as a last resort, targeted military action. Should the United States provide Pakistan aid to improve the security of its nuclear arsenal? Yes: As Pakistan is a U.S. ally, consistently faces external and internal threats [PDF] from terrorists and extremists alike, and currently holds an estimated 90 to 110 nuclear warheads, it is vital that the United States provide Pakistan aid to secure its nuclear arsenal. Exemplifying the importance of helping Pakistan in this area, U.S. congressional representative Michele Bachmann has labeled Pakistan "too nuclear to fail" and has warned that suspending Pakistan's aid would be "highly naïve." Proponents of providing Pakistan aid to secure its arsenal also note that such a policy is a relatively cheap way to prevent dangerous nonstate actors from stealing or acquiring one of Pakistan's nuclear weapons. In particular, aid set aside for improving the security of Pakistan's arsenal has represented only a small proportion of the more than $20 billion the country has received from the United States since 2011. Additionally, the United States, as a long standing nuclear power committed to nuclear security, is uniquely equipped to provide nuclear security related assistance to Pakistan. No: Although the United States has a critical national security interest in ensuring the security of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal, providing the Pakistani government with aid will do little to accomplish this goal. First, Pakistan has repeatedly denied claims that its nuclear arsenal is insecure; it also recently announced training of an elite team comprising eight thousand members to guard the nuclear arsenal. Even if security gaps do exist in Pakistan, it is not clear that additional U.S. aid—on top of the tens of millions the U.S. has alreadyprovided Pakistan already to secure its arsenal—will fix the problem. There is also the risk that certain actors within Pakistan's government could divert U.S. aid, and perhaps even to extremist elements in the country. Similarly, aid designated for Pakistan's nuclear arsenal might actually increase suspicions in the Pakistani military that U.S. intelligence agencies are spying, with potentially harmful ramifications for U.S.-Pakistan cooperation. More broadly, providing aid to Pakistan to secure its nuclear arsenal could be interpreted by some members of the international community as a "reward" to Pakistan for developing nuclear weapons—and inadvertently encourage the proliferation of nuclear weapons elsewhere. Recent Developments November 2013: Breakthrough in Iran talks On November 24, 2013, the United States and the rest of the P5+1 struck the first meaningful deal with Iran regarding its nuclear program in over a decade. In return for limited and reversible sanctions relief, Iran agreed to halt its nuclear program for a period of six months. Though the agreement does not provide a long-term solution to concerns about Iranian nuclear aspirations, it lays the groundwork for further negotiations. As of January 20, 2014, the IAEA and the United States verified that Iran had fulfilled its initial commitments under the joint plan of action. June 2013: Nuclear states defying NPT The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute's latest yearbook has suggested that all five recognized nuclear states are either deploying new nuclear weapons or delivery systems for nuclear systems or plan to do so. The report contends that these states "appear determined to retain their nuclear arsenals indefinitely." Such a development would violate the terms of the nonproliferation treaty which states that recognized nuclear states work toward disarmament. April 2013: Egypts walks out of nuclear meetings On April 30, Egypt walked out of the Geneva preparatory meeting for the 2015 Review Conference of the State Parties to the Treaty on the NonProliferation of Nuclear Weapons. The Egyptian foreign minister for international organizations explained that the delegation's walkout from the talks stemmed from Egypt's frustration at a lack of progress toward a nuclear-free zone encompassing the Middle East. The creation of such a zone was not on the agenda for the current round of global nuclear talks. April 2013: Chinese pledge for nuclear-free North Korea During his visit to China, Secretary of State John Kerry said that China had agreed to help North Korea demobilize its nuclear arsenal by peaceful means. It is hoped that China, as North Korea's primary trading partner and financier, has the leverage to mitigate the increasingly aggressive rhetoric from Pyongyang that has increased fears of military operations on the peninsula. February 2013: Third North Korea test blast North Korea conducted a controversial nuclear test on Monday, February 11, the country's third since 2006. North Korean officials claimed the country has successfully miniaturized its nuclear technology, a crucial step in developing long-range missile capabilities, but details of the test remain murky. The United States announced that Washington would push for stricter sanctions in the wake of the most recent test, which has been condemned by South Korea and Russia, among others. Even China, North Korea's closest ally for decades, strongly criticized the test—Chinese foreign minister Yang Jiechi announced that China was "strongly dissatisfied and resolutely opposed" to North Korea's most recent provocation. Its subsequent threats against the United States and South Korea, combined with its scrapping of a Korean War armistice, have led to widespread condemnation from the United Nations, European Union, and other states. December 2013: U.S.-Russian disposal program ends In 1994, the United States and Russia struck a deal to dispose of large stockpiles of Soviet highly enriched uranium (HEU). Over twenty years, Russia converted five hundred metric tons of HEU (enough bomb-grade uranium for 20,000 warheads) into low-enriched uranium (LEU) that the United States purchased. The United States-Russia Highly Enriched Uranium Purchase Agreement, commonly known as the Megatons to Megawatts program, ended with the last shipment of LEU reaching the United States on December 11, 2013. Options for Strengthening the Nonproliferation Regime Introduction Recent trends have brought the nuclear nonproliferation regime to a moment of grave crisis. The regime is under siege from both rogue states and nonstate actors, and its core bargain between the nuclear haves and have-nots continues to erode. Bolstering international restraints on the world's deadliest weapons will require the United States and its international partners to adopt realistic, concrete steps to strengthen and close gaps in existing treaty regimes, institutions, and partnerships. These recommendations reflect the views of Stewart M. Patrick, director of the program on international institutions and global governance. Increasing the IAEA budget and reforming the safeguards, security, and personnel systems The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is the world's technical agency in charge of ensuring that countries maintain safeguards on their peaceful nuclear programs. Safeguards help deter a country from diverting nuclear technology and materials from peaceful to military programs. The major concern is that safeguards capabilities have not kept up with the increased use of nuclear power and the projected expansion of nuclear power to many counties. In the words of the Bush administration's head of the National Nuclear Security Administration, "safeguards equipment is outdated and personnel preparedness declining as the agency failed to replace retiring experts with new hires." The IAEA provides services on improving nuclear security in order to prevent nuclear and radiological materials from falling into the hands of terrorists. In 2008, the Eminent Persons Commission advised the IAEA director general that the agency needs to substantially increase its budget for safeguards and security work. Unfortunately, this financial support has not been forthcoming. The IAEA, however, needs member states to commit to place the agency on a sustainable funding path. It also needs to reform its personnel rules to allow experts to stay in one type of job for longer than seven years and for highly qualified senior personnel to stay employed beyond the mandatory retirement age of sixty-two. The recent release of an IAEA report discussing Iran's alleged covert nuclear weapons activity presents more evidence regarding the need to ensure the funding needs of the IAEA are satisfied. Increasing national and international efforts to bring the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty into force Increasing national and international efforts to bring the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty into force and boost funding to the CTBT Preparatory Commission is required in order to continue to improve the international monitoring system. The CTBT is specifically linked to the overall nonproliferation regime, and entry into force would strengthen the norm against proliferation of nuclear weapons and make it more difficult for states to have confidence that nuclear weapons would work without testing. For the CTBT to enter into force, forty-four nuclear-capable states must ratify it. If the United States ratifies, it can then apply more leverage to the remaining holdout states to do the same. Nonratifying states include China, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Iran, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan, and the United States. In a February 2010 speech, Vice President Biden reaffirmed U.S. commitment to ratify the treaty. The United States will need allied states to reach out and apply diplomatic pressure to holdout states to help secure entry into force. To ensure the requisite technical support for the treaty, the United States and its allies need to provide enough funding and other technical resources to the CTBT Organization (CTBTO) and Preparatory Commission. Such support will improve the global monitoring system that is designed to detect relatively low yield nuclear tests throughout the world. Negotiating new, emboldened nuclear arms control treaties The United States and Russia replaced the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) with the New START Treaty. Successful negotiation and ratification of this agreement improved the overall condition of U.S.-Russian relations, possibly making it easier to work together on other multilateral efforts (such as ensuring the peaceful use of nuclear energy, preventing further proliferation to additional states, and implementing global best security practices on nuclear weapons and weapons-usable nuclear materials). The New START agreement preserves many of the best elements of its predecessor, such as information exchange, predictability, and permanence in reductions, verification, and transparency. But the United States and Russia must also look ahead to deeper nuclear reductions and focus on broader issues of contention, including missile defense and advanced conventional weapons. In the longer term, the United States and its international partners should consider the following steps: Reforming and strengthening the NPT by creating automatic or binding UNSC mechanisms. Rights in the NPT come with responsibilities. Nuclear weapon states have the responsibility to ensure access to peaceful nuclear technologies, and the recipient states need to show that they can manage nuclear power safely and securely. Although Iran has cited its inalienable right under the NPT to access peaceful nuclear technologies, including dual-use enrichment technologies, it has not met its responsibility to ensure adequate safeguards on its peaceful nuclear program. It has also not provided enough transparency into suspected nuclear weapons development activities to assure the world that it is meeting its responsibility to not acquire nuclear weapons. North Korea left the NPT under the Article X supreme national interests clause, but it did so while under suspicion of developing nuclear weapons. Moreover, it never placed its nuclear program under safeguards. Although amending the NPT is admittedly a difficult task, states should commit to strengthening the interpretation and application of the treaty's rules. In particular, the UN Security Council should require that any state in violation of its safeguards agreement should suspend the suspect activity until the violation is resolved. The Security Council should also require any state in violation of its safeguards agreement that wants to leave the NPT to return nuclear technologies and materials obtained while a member to countries of origin. In addition, the Security Council should call for a special inspection in any country that has violated its safeguards commitment and is under suspicion of having a nuclear weapons program. Nuclear weapon states have a special responsibility to reaffirm their commitment to pursue nuclear disarmament. They need to demonstrate what concrete actions they have taken and intend to take on the disarmament front. The 2010 NPT Review Conference provided an opportunity for treaty signatories to recommit themselves to a world free of nuclear weapons; however, U.S. efforts to include language on stronger verification measures in the final document failed. Determining whether to institutionalize PSI. In his April 2009 Prague speech, President Obama advocated that the world should "come together to turn efforts such as the Proliferation Security Initiative...into a durable institution." The purported benefits of creating a formal institution out of PSI are still being debated. For example, turning the PSI from an informal cooperation agreement into an organization with a secretariat and a budget has the potential to increase its resource endowment and expand its reach. Institutionalizing the initiative may also help clarify commitments and increase operational transparency, making it easier to evaluate performance and measure progress. Bringing the PSI under UN aegis, some analysts have argued, could boost its international legitimacy and appeal to China, India, and Middle Eastern states, whose cooperation in policing the nuclear trade market remains important. One way to put PSI on a firmer institutional footing without folding into an explicitly formalized institution would be to strengthen its legal foundation. This would place interdiction on grounds consistent with international law. Creating a global alliance against nuclear terrorism. The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, while nonnuclear, renewed fears of catastrophic nuclear terrorism. In response, the United States and partner countries have revived or initiated international efforts to counter this threat. In particular, the Group of Eight (G8) countries in 2002 launched the Global Partnership against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction, in which the United States committed to spend at least $10 billion over ten years, and other partners pledged to match that sum. In 2004, the United States formed the Global Threat Reduction Initiative, which was an umbrella program including several programs to secure and reduce fissile materials as well as radioactive materials. Russia is a major partner in this initiative. In 2006, Russia and the United States joined forces again when then president Bush and then Russian president Putin began the Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism, which as of early 2010 had eighty-two countries voluntarily taking part in sharing intelligence on nuclear terrorist threats as well as pledging to work toward better security practices over nuclear and other radioactive materials. These programs and initiatives have achieved significant results, but more committed and coordinated global efforts are needed. The challenge for the new U.S. administration is to urge countries to meet their financial and resource commitments pledged under these programs and to increase funding and personnel to ensure that President Obama's goal of securing all vulnerable nuclear material can be achieved by 2014. The institutionalization of biennial global nuclear security summits—with the next summit planned for 2014 in the Netherlands—is a solid step in the right direction. Developing a system of layered nuclear fuel assurance. The spread of nuclear fuel–making facilities under a single state's control can increase the risk of diversion of peaceful nuclear technologies into weapons programs. Issuing an edict to prohibit this activity runs into the barriers of state sovereignty and the "inalienable right" to pursue peaceful nuclear programs. States have built fuel–making facilities for reasons of satisfying national pride, developing a latent weapons capability, and trying to make a profit. To take away or at least to reduce the economic rationale for these facilities, several fuel assurance programs have been proposed. Many of these proposals were studied decades ago. Concerns about proliferation in response to Iran's nuclear program have prompted a dusting off of these proposals or a dressing up with more incentives. The important point is that the nuclear fuel market has worked effectively and there is no reason to expect it to fail in the foreseeable future especially with the expansion plans of the established nuclear fuel producers. To further strengthen nonproliferation, it makes sense to offer a layered system of fuel assurances that would be available to any country that is in compliance with its safeguards commitments. The first layer would be the existing market in which a handful of major producers have been meeting customers' needs. The second layer would consist of political commitments and insurance policies that would form in effect a virtual fuel bank to back up the existing market. The final layer would consist of an actual fuel bank containing sufficient fuel or low-enriched uranium that can be readily converted to fuel. Such a bank should contain at least enough fuel or enriched uranium to supply the needs of a few large power reactors over a two to three year period. Even with this layered approach, certain countries may still decide to pursue new fuel–making endeavors, but a robust layered fuel system will at least expose that these countries are doing such activities for other than economic reasons.
  • Security Alliances
    Behind the Scenes at NATO
    On CFR.org, I argue that at first glance, NATO’s upcoming May 19-21 Chicago summit can be seen as a moment of triumph, but that there are fundamental questions about the future of the alliance that will go undiscussed. My colleagues in the United Kingdom, Israel, Turkey, and Russia, don’t necessarily agree though. Read their opinions on the second installment of CFR’s new Council of Council’s Global Expert Roundup. The alliance’s successful military intervention in Libya demonstrated to many NATO’s continued relevance as the world’s premier collective defense organization and the only military alliance capable of conducting intense operations beyond its borders. With critical air support, the alliance prevented the mass slaughter of civilians and helped overthrow an execrable dictator, Muammar al-Qaddafi, without the loss of a single allied serviceman. NATO remains, in the words of its new Strategic Concept, "an essential source of stability in an unpredictable world." Behind the scenes, however, the picture is less rosy. The alliance continues to confront fundamental questions about how it should define its role and mission in the twenty-first century, and whether its member nations have the political will and capacity to fulfill its mission. In particular, countries are ambivalent about whether the alliance should continue to conduct operations outside the North Atlantic, or limit missions to member nations’ borders. The collection of twenty-eight sovereign democracies is sometimes fractious, each with its own national interests, threat perceptions, and domestic constraints. None of these issues is officially on the Chicago agenda, but they will form part of the background for discussions and will surely influence the commitments NATO nations are prepared to make when it comes to conducting out-of-area operations, developing new collective capabilities, and forging partnerships with non-member states. Three items will dominate the official agenda in Chicago: navigating a tricky endgame in Afghanistan, implementing NATO’s new "smart defense" doctrine, and bolstering the alliance’s global partnerships. View the entire Expert Brief here on CFR.org. 
  • Middle East and North Africa
    How NATO Can Remain Relevant
    As NATO’s mission continues to redefine itself, four experts discuss what the alliance can do to remain relevant as a force for international peace and security.