Middle East Matters

Significant Developments Egypt. Security forces on Friday dispersed demonstrations across the country of Morsi supporters protesting General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s victory in this week’s presidential election. Sisi reportedly won nearly 95 percent of the vote. Presidential candidate Hamdeen Sabbahi, who came in third in 2012, conceded defeat yesterday, calling the official voter turnout figures an “insult to Egyptians’ intelligence.” The unofficial results show voter turnout at 46 percent, after the election was extended at the last minute to a third day to drum up participation. International observers cast doubt on the fairness of the elections; Eric Bjornlund, president of Democracy International, declared, “Egypt’s repressive political environment made a genuinely democratic presidential election impossible.” Lebanon’s former prime minister, Saad Hariri, congratulated Sisi saying that “Choosing you president for Egypt is a blessed step toward the restoration of Egypt’s leading role in the region and the Arab world.” Libya.  Libya’s political crisis continued this week, as thousands of people across Libya rallied to express support for renegade General Hiftar, who launched an offensive two weeks ago to purge the country of Islamist militias. On Tuesday, unidentified armed assailants attacked the home of Prime Minister Ahmed Maiteg, who was officially appointed on Monday by an Islamist-dominated parliament. Interim prime minister Abdullah al-Thinni requested a legal ruling on Wednesday on whether had to hand over power to Maiteg, who was elected on May 4 in a vote boycotted by many secular lawmakers. Meanwhile, Mohammed al-Zahawi, the head of Ansar al-Sharia, issued a threat on Tuesday to “open the gates of hell on [Hiftar] and the region” in response to Hiftar’s crackdown in Benghazi. Following Zahawi’s threat, the State Department recommended all U.S. citizens leave Libya immediately. The same day, U.S. defense officials announced that the USS Bataan, with approximately one thousand Marines aboard, was moved into the Mediterranean to help with evacuations if necessary. Jordan-Israel-Palestine. Pope Francis concluded a three-day trip to the Middle East on Monday, after visiting Jordan, Palestine, and Israel. The Pope left with a pledge from Israeli president Shimon Peres and Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas to join him to pray for peace in the Vatican on June 8. In an interview with PBS Newshour on Saturday, I discussed the Pope’s delicate balancing act in the region. U.S. Foreign Policy Obama. President Obama attempted to lay out a foreign policy vision in a speech at West Point on Wednesday, focusing on terrorism as the most direct threat to the United States for the foreseeable future. Obama said that it is necessary to develop a strategy to match the new threat of a decentralized al-Qaeda network. He also addressed Syria in the context of counterterrorism, calling it a “critical focus of this effort,” and declared that he will work with Congress to increase support for the Syrian opposition. Israel-Palestine. Secretary of State John Kerry defended the Obama administration’s foreign policy in an interview with PBS Newshour, saying that “we are as engaged, more engaged than in any time in American history.” Speaking about the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, Kerry acknowledged that he is disappointed that a deal wasn’t reached by his self-imposed April 29 deadline, but declared that, “my job is to push it forward and my job is to try to find the optimism and the possibilities, not to give up. And I refuse to give up.” While We Were Looking Elsewhere Syria. The UN Security Council is reportedly considering a draft resolution that would authorize aid deliveries into Syria at four points without government consent. UN deputy aid chief Kyung-wha Kang updated the UNSC yesterday on the status of the unanimously approved aid resolution that was passed in February, saying that it has failed to make a difference because nearly 90 percent of the aid goes to government-held areas. The new resolution was drafted by Australia, Luxembourg, and Jordan, and falls under the UN Charter’s Chapter VII, which would make it enforceable with military action. Meanwhile, the first suicide bombing in Syria by an American citizen was reported on Tuesday. The man, known in Syria as Abu Huraira al-Amriki, carried out a truck bombing in the province of Idlib on Sunday. Intelligence officials say that about three thousand Westerners have traveled to Syria to fight, including nearly one hundred Americans. Palestine. Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas asked Palestinian Authority prime minister Rami Hamdallah to form a new transitional government of independent technocrats yesterday. The new government aims to unite Fatah and Hamas under the terms of the unity pact they signed on April 23, and meet the five-week deadline for the formation of such a government. Palestinian officials say that they expect the new government to be announced within a few days, although disagreement reportedly remains over the candidate for the future foreign minister. Iran-Saudi Arabia. Iran’s deputy foreign minister Iranian deputy foreign minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian Iranian deputy foreign minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian Iranian deputy foreign minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian welcomed yesterday an invitation from Saudi Arabia to attend next month’s meeting of foreign ministers of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation countries in Jeddah. Tunisia. Gunmen killed four policemen in an attack on the home of Tunisian interior minister Lofti Ben Jeddou in Kasserine on Wednesday. Ben Jeddou was not at home during the attack, but responded the next day by saying that Tunisia is “still at war with terrorism and we should expect some losses.” No group has claimed responsibility yet, but the attackers are suspected to be Islamist militants.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) recently announced that the death toll from Syria’s brutal conflict has exceeded 160,000 people. That figure marks an increase of more than 10,000 people killed in less than two months. At the beginning of April, SOHR had put the death toll at just over 150,000 people. Here at Middle East Matters, we have continued to compile data from Syria’s brutal conflict. Our sources include the Violations Documentation Center in Syria (VDC), the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), and the Syrian Revolution Martyr Database, as well as refugee numbers from the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees. To see just how dramatically the war has affected the Syrian people since we started tracking the statistics two years ago, compare the figures below with the corresponding numbers for the months February 2014, September 2013, May 2013, October 2012, August 2012, and June 2012. The numbers are staggering. Length of Conflict 38 months Deaths Total estimated deaths: 162,402** Total estimated opposition deaths: 96,621 – 105,816 Total estimated regime deaths: 14,145 Civilian: 70,056 – 83,145 Children: 11,236 – 11,297 Opposition military: 22,671 – 26,567 **Estimated deaths as of March 31, 2014, by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights Deaths by Province Rural Damascus: 22,167 – 25,236 Aleppo: 18,927 – 20,353 Homs: 13,025 – 14,466 Idlib: 10,426 – 11,096 Daraa: 8,709 – 9,158 Damascus: 6,666 – 7,952 Hama: 6,423 – 7,121 Deir Ezzor: 5,704 – 5,755 Al-Raqqa: 1,126 – 1,465 Latakia: 972 – 1065 Al-Hasakah: 683 – 794 Tartous: 352 – 527 Quneitra: 676 – 722 Al-Suweida: 74 – 77 UN Refugees – Registered or Waiting to be Registered Total number of refugees registered or awaiting registration by the UN: 2,492,495 Total number of registered refugees: 2,805,715 Persons awaiting registration: 71,154 Turkey Total number of registered refugees: 717,909 Persons awaiting registration: 0 Jordan Total number of registered refugees: 596,062 Persons awaiting registration: 0 Lebanon Total number of registered refugees: 1,077,704 Persons awaiting registration: 55,482 Iraq Total number of registered refugees: 223,113 Persons awaiting registration: 15,672 Egypt Total number of registered refugees: 137,560 Persons awaiting registration: 0 Internally Displaced Persons in Syria 6.5 million Aid Total funding requirements for 2014: $4,264,717,711 Total funded: $1,012,444,496

Significant Developments Syria. The Friends of Syria group met in London yesterday and issued a communique that denounced Syrian president Bashar al-Assad’s plan to hold elections on June 3 and agreed to increase support to the moderate opposition. Secretary of State John Kerry expressed frustration about the Syrian regime’s control over access to international humanitarian aid and said he had seen data indicating the Syrian government recent use of chlorine as a chemical weapon. He warned that “there will be consequences” if the chemical attacks are confirmed, but then added, “We’re not going to pin ourselves down to a precise date, time, manner of action.” On Tuesday, Lakhdar Brahimi, the UN envoy for Syria, announced that he will resign at the end of May. Brahimi told a press conference that “we haven’t been able to help [the Syrian people] as much as they deserve, as much as we should have.” Meanwhile, Abu Mohammed al-Adnani, the spokesperson for ISIS, released a recording on Sunday that rejected al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri’s call to leave Syria. Al-Adnani also accused Zawahiri of dividing the mujahedeen that Osama bin Laden had united. Libya. Military forces led by General Khalifa Hifter, a retired general who fought Qaddafi in 2011, launched an offensive against two Islamist militias earlier today. Libya’s army chief of staff, Mohamed al-Hejazi, said that the action had not been officially sanctioned, but army helicopters and jets reportedly participated in the operation. The Libyan government has threatened legal action against Hifter, who appeared in an online video in February calling on the military to overthrow the Libyan government in order “rescue” the country. Meanwhile, Jordanian ambassador to Libya, Fawaz al-Itan, was released and returned to Amman on Tuesday after being abducted in Tripoli last month by armed assailants. The AFP reported that Al-Itan was released in exchange for Mohammed Saeed al-Darsi, who was jailed for life in 2007 for plotting to blow up the Jordanian airport. Iran. American officials expressed concern today about the slow pace in the fourth round of negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, which began on Wednesday in Vienna. Iranian foreign minister and EU foreign policy chief Cathy Ashton reportedly began trying to write a draft final agreement, but have not made significant progress. Meanwhile, according to a Reuters report, a recent confidential UN report says that Iran has continued its development of ballistic missiles. Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Sunday that Western expectations that Iran would stop its missile program are “stupid and idiotic.” U.S. Foreign Policy Saudi Arabia-Gulf. U.S. secretary of defense Chuck Hagel met with defense ministers of the GCC in Jeddah on Wednesday to discuss P5+1 nuclear negotiations with Iran. Hagel called on the GCC to demonstrate unity, saying that “cooperation among friends is vital to their survival.” Hagel’s meeting coincides with the beginning of the fourth round of nuclear negotiations in Vienna. Meanwhile, King Abdullah announced a reshuffle of the top Saudi defense positions shortly after Hagel spoke. Deputy Defense Minister Prince Salman bin Sultan bin Abdul Aziz, who reportedly had a good relationship with Hagel, was removed and replaced by Prince Khaled bin Bandar bin Abdul Aziz, the governor of Riyadh. Israel. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel wrapped up his four day Middle East visit today in Jerusalem, where he met with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Following their meeting,  Hagel told a joint press conference, “I want to assure you of the United States’ commitment to ensuring Iran does not get a nuclear weapon — and that America will do what we must to live up to that commitment.” Netanyahu, in turn, warned that, “Iran is trying to pull the wool over the eyes of the international community.” Israel-Palestine. Secretary of State John Kerry met separately with Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli chief negotiator Tzipi Livni, this week in London in his first meetings with the negotiators since the breakdown of talks last month. According to State Department spokesperson Jen Psaki, Kerry told both Abbas and Livni that the “door remains open to peace.” Libya. Pentagon spokesperson Colonel Steve Warren said on Wednesday that nearly two hundred Marines backed with six aircraft have been temporarily moved to Sicily from Spain amidst concern over growing unrest in Libya. Warren said that the deployment follows a State Department request and is “unquestionably” focused on embassy protection. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Israel-Palestine. Violent protests erupted today in the West Bank following the funeral of two Palestinian youths who were killed yesterday in clashes with Israeli security forces during demonstrations for Nakba Day. A senior Palestinian source told an Israeli newspaper that Palestinian Authority officials are considering halting security cooperation with Israel in response. Meanwhile, Israeli construction and housing minister Uri Ariel told a Tel Aviv radio station today that he thinks the number of Jewish settlers in the West Bank could grow by 50 percent by 2019. Turkey. Mass burials were held again today as more bodies were recovered from the coal mine in Soma, while protests broke out across the country against work conditions and the prime minister’s perceived indifference. Greeted by cries of “murderer” in Soma on Wednesday, Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan allegedly punched a protestor while one of his aides kicked another protestor held down by police, an act photographed and published in Turkish newspapers yesterday. The explosion at the mine on Tuesday has resulted in the deaths of at least 284 miners confirmed so far. Egypt. The trial of three Al Jazeera journalists in Cairo was adjourned yesterday until May 22. Before adjourning, the court was told by the defendants’ lawyers that they had been asked to pay $170,000 by the prosecution in order to view five CDs that allegedly prove the journalists guilt. The three journalists have been jailed since December 29 on charges of fomenting unrest. Meanwhile, former military chief Abdel Fattah el-Sisi called on President Barack Obama to support Egypt’s fight against terrorism on Wednesday in his first international media interview. Pointing to growing unrest in Libya and the Egyptian military’s operations against militants in the Sinai, el-Sisi declared that, “The West has to pay attention to what’s going on in the world - the map of extremism and its expansion. This map will reach you inevitably.” Saudi Arabia-Iran. Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal told reporters on Tuesday that Saudi Arabia is willing to host Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif anytime he “sees fit.” Al-Faisal stressed that the kingdom hopes Iran can help to make the region “as safe as possible.” Iranian deputy foreign minister Hossein Amir Abdullahian responded on Wednesday, noting that while an official invitation has yet to be extended, a meeting is expected. Kuwait. According to the Kuwaiti state news agency KUNA, Justice and Islamic Affairs Minister Nayef al-Ajmi resigned on Monday after accusations that he promoted terrorism in Syria. In March, U.S. Treasury undersecretary David Cohen said that Ajmi “has a history of promoting jihad” and pointed out that al-Nusra Front in Syria features him on their fundraising posters. Lebanon. Trade and Economy Minister Alain Hakim said yesterday a ministerial committee for Syrian refugees agreed this week that Lebanon will set a limit on the number of Syrian refugees in the country and will establish official refugee camps. There are currently over one thousand informal settlements and over a million Syrian refugees scattered across Lebanon. Palestine. Gaza-based Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh announced last night that Hamas had agreed to all the details of security reintegration with Fatah, thereby removing a key obstacle in political reconciliation plan. Haniyeh noted that Hamas would not give up the “weapons of resistance” nor “forsake resistance.” Officials from Hamas and Fatah met in Gaza on Wednesday and reportedly agreed to form a fifteen-member interim government.