[{"command":"settings","settings":{"pluralDelimiter":"\u0003","suppressDeprecationErrors":true,"ajaxPageState":{"libraries":"eJwry0wtL9YvA5F6ufkppTmpOmBOfGJWYkV8emqJPowBFc_MS8vMyyxJjS9OLsrPyYFo1YWJ6kJEAdF1Ikc","theme":"cfr_theme","theme_token":null},"ajaxTrustedUrl":[],"views":{"ajax_path":"\/views\/ajax","ajaxViews":{"views_dom_id:3cb28d12fd94022b5c760996086a9587ce5d8ded3b8e7e4387af5e0a2bad851e":{"view_name":"blog_posts","view_display_id":"block_archived_blog_posts","view_args":"13\/194842\/2017","view_path":"\/custom\/ajax\/archived_blog_posts\/13\/194842\/2017","view_base_path":null,"view_dom_id":"3cb28d12fd94022b5c760996086a9587ce5d8ded3b8e7e4387af5e0a2bad851e","pager_element":0}}},"viewsAjaxGet":{"blog_posts":"blog_posts"},"user":{"uid":0,"permissionsHash":"e331052eb0a1bc4b2feb3d0cfc1f0f2f6ec5dfd9a50125d1397e4ccee31da7be"}},"merge":true},{"command":"add_css","data":[{"rel":"stylesheet","media":"all","href":"\/sites\/default\/files\/css\/css_sgviVl_37H6Ta5Bl-lc7uAkjneU0Dj6JvASOxbgV9L8.css?delta=0\u0026language=en\u0026theme=cfr_theme\u0026include=eJwry0wtL9YvA5F6ufkppTmpOmBOfGJWYkV8emqJPowBFc_MS8vMyyxJjS9OLsrPyYFo1YWJ6kJEAdF1Ikc"}]},{"command":"add_js","selector":"body","data":[{"src":"\/themes\/custom\/cfr_theme\/node_modules\/jquery\/dist\/jquery.min.js?v=3.1.0"},{"src":"\/themes\/custom\/cfr_theme\/node_modules\/jquery-migrate\/dist\/jquery-migrate.min.js?v=3.1.0"},{"src":"\/core\/assets\/vendor\/once\/once.min.js?v=1.0.1"},{"src":"\/core\/misc\/drupalSettingsLoader.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/core\/misc\/drupal.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/core\/misc\/drupal.init.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/core\/assets\/vendor\/tabbable\/index.umd.min.js?v=6.2.0"},{"src":"\/core\/misc\/progress.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/core\/assets\/vendor\/loadjs\/loadjs.min.js?v=4.2.0"},{"src":"\/core\/misc\/debounce.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/core\/misc\/announce.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/core\/misc\/message.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/core\/misc\/ajax.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/themes\/contrib\/stable\/js\/ajax.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/modules\/contrib\/views_ajax_get\/views_ajax_get.js?ss1skj"},{"src":"\/core\/assets\/vendor\/jquery-form\/jquery.form.min.js?v=4.3.0"},{"src":"\/core\/modules\/views\/js\/base.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/core\/modules\/views\/js\/ajax_view.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/modules\/contrib\/views_infinite_scroll\/js\/infinite-scroll.js?v=10.2.11"}]},{"command":"insert","method":"html","selector":".blog-series__accordion-item[data-year=\u00222017\u0022] .blog-series__accordion-body","data":"\u003Cdiv class=\u0022views-element-container\u0022\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\u0022js-view-dom-id-3cb28d12fd94022b5c760996086a9587ce5d8ded3b8e7e4387af5e0a2bad851e\u0022\u003E\n \n \n \n\n \n \n \n\n \u003Cdiv data-drupal-views-infinite-scroll-content-wrapper class=\u0022views-infinite-scroll-content-wrapper clearfix\u0022\u003E\n\n\n\n \u003Cdiv class=\u0022views-row\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\u0022views-field views-field-search-api-rendered-item\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022field-content\u0022\u003E\n\n \n\n\u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large article card-article-large--with-thumbnail\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__container\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__content\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__topic-tag\u0022\u003E\n \u003Ca href=\u0022\/donald-trump\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__topic-tag-link\u0022\u003E\n Donald Trump\n \u003C\/a\u003E\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n \n \u003Ca href=\u0022\/blog\/president-trumps-peace-efforts-require-regional-approach \u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__link\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__title\u0022\u003E\n President Trump\u2019s Peace Efforts Require A Regional Approach\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__image\u0022\u003E\n \n \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__image-cover\u0022 style=\u0022background-image: url(\/\/cdn.cfr.org\/sites\/default\/files\/styles\/card_landscape_m_380x253\/public\/image\/2017\/05\/Trump%20Alone%202.jpg.webp)\u0022\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n \u003C\/a\u003E\n\n \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__dek clamp-js\u0022 data-clamp-lines=\u00224\u0022\u003EPresident Donald Trump\u2019s non-stop flight from Riyadh to Tel Aviv is being described as the first ever non-stop flight between Saudi Arabia and Israel. That the Saudis allowed this direct flight, usually banned, reflects the fact that the relationship between Israel and Saudi Arabia, like that of Israel with a number of Gulf states, has been quietly but perceptibly thawing in recent years. This thaw reflects the growing convergence between Israel and the Sunni states of the Arab world, all who share a view that Iran is the biggest threat to their security and regional stability.\r\n\r\nMatching that convergence was the message conveyed by President Trump, first in Saudi Arabia and then in Israel, of a geo-strategic shift in U.S. policy. It was just one year ago that then-President Obama, seeking a modus vivendi with Tehran, said that America\u2019s Gulf allies need to \u201cshare the Middle East\u201d with the Iranians. That view of the Middle East was decisively repudiated this week, with Trump clearly aligning the United States with the majority of the Sunni Arab world, and Israel, against Iran.\r\n\r\nYet despite this shift and some hints of an improved tone, President Trump carried no explicit public message of peace from Riyadh to Tel Aviv on Air Force One. Nor did he explain\u2014either in Riyadh, or in Israel\u2014the specific possibilities for peace between Israel and the larger Arab world. Instead, President Trump focused on\u0026nbsp;Palestinian President Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu as the committed partners for peace, adding only that the Arab world would like to see the two leaders reach a bilateral agreement. Without integrating the leaders of the Arab states he just met in Riyadh into a new framework for Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, President Trump is unlikely to achieve the peace he seeks. The Arab states have a crucial role to play, both in incentivizing the Israelis to make sacrifices for peace, and in supporting the Palestinians in concluding a conflict-ending agreement with Israel.\r\n\r\nPerhaps most striking was President Trump\u2019s choice not to mention the Arab Peace Initiative (API), which Israel and the Arab states agree can serve as a basis for a comprehensive approach. While the API, when proposed by Saudi Arabia in 2002, originally offered peace between Israel and the Arab world \u003Cem\u003Eafter\u003C\/em\u003E a complete Israeli withdrawal to boundaries existing prior to the 1967 Six Day War, the proposal has since been modified by the Arab states to make it more palatable to Israel. For several years now, the Arab states have suggested that the plan can serve as a basis for negotiations, and that progress toward\u0026nbsp;Israeli-Palestinian peace can be met with parallel progress toward\u0026nbsp;peace between Israel and other Arab states. Recognizing these changes, Netanyahu last year broke over a decade of official Israeli silence and spoke positively at the Knesset of the API.\r\n\r\nContrasting with President Trump\u2019s focus on Israeli-Palestinian peace and his relative silence regarding a regional approach are the comments of Israeli and Arab officials themselves. In Riyadh, it was Saudi Foreign Minister Adel Jubeir who praised President Trump for going to Israel as part of an effort to move away from conflict toward\u0026nbsp;partnership. And it was Netanyahu who noted alongside President Trump that the only variable that may have changed to make peace more attainable is the regional environment, noting that \u201ccommon dangers are turning former enemies into partners. And that\u2019s where we see something new and potentially something very promising.\u201d\r\n\r\nPerhaps in the weeks and months ahead, President Trump will seek to exploit the regional goodwill he hinted at and which exists to facilitate Israeli-Palestinian peace. Other than the new Middle East regional environment, there is little to suggest that myriad obstacles that have prevented a bilateral peace agreement between Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Palestinian President Abbas before can now be overcome, particularly pursued the same tried and tested way through direct bilateral negotiations. Unless President Trump adopts a new approach\u2014one that integrates the Arab states as active participants in support of a deal, not as bystanders to another round of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations\u2014there is scant reason to believe the new U.S. president will have any greater success in brokering a peace deal between these two Middle Eastern leaders than did the previous administration.\r\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n \n \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__metadata\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__publication-type\u0022\u003EPost\u003C\/span\u003E\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__authors\u0022\u003Eby Robert Danin\u003C\/span\u003E\n \n \n \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__date\u0022\u003E May 22, 2017\u003C\/span\u003E\n \n \n \u003Ca href=\u0022\/blog\/middle-east-matters\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__series\u0022\u003E\n Middle East Matters\n \u003C\/a\u003E\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n\n\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\u0022views-row\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\u0022views-field views-field-search-api-rendered-item\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022field-content\u0022\u003E\n\n \n\n\u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large article card-article-large--with-thumbnail\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__container\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__content\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__topic-tag\u0022\u003E\n \u003Ca href=\u0022\/middle-east-and-north-africa\/palestinian-territories\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__topic-tag-link\u0022\u003E\n Palestinian Territories\n \u003C\/a\u003E\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n \n \u003Ca href=\u0022\/blog\/palestinian-president-abbas-washington-challenge \u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__link\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__title\u0022\u003E\n Palestinian President Abbas\u2019 Washington Challenge\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__image\u0022\u003E\n \n \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__image-cover\u0022 style=\u0022background-image: url(\/\/cdn.cfr.org\/sites\/default\/files\/styles\/card_landscape_m_380x253\/public\/image\/2017\/04\/Abbas-pic.jpg.webp)\u0022\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n \u003C\/a\u003E\n\n \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__dek clamp-js\u0022 data-clamp-lines=\u00224\u0022\u003EPalestinian President Mahmoud Abbas faces one of the greatest negotiating challenges of his political career on Wednesday when he meets President Trump at the White House: He must convince many skeptics in Washington that he is willing and able to sign the \u201cultimate deal\u201d that President Trump seeks.\r\n\r\nAs the Palestine Liberation Organization\u2019s (PLO) leader, Abbas has twice before been presented far-reaching peace proposals\u2014once by Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert in 2008, and a second time by President Obama at the White House in March 2014. In both instances, Abbas did not reject the offers. Nor did he say yes. Instead, he did not relate to them, thereby leaving the question lingering to this day for many outside observers as to whether the 82-year old president is too constrained to provide yes for an answer.\r\n\r\nIt is not that Abbas has failed to demonstrate political courage in his life-long career rising through the ranks of the PLO. He was among the vanguard of those Palestinians committed to non-violence in the nationalist struggle with Israel. Advocating peaceful reconciliation with Israel was politically risky and personally dangerous. He continues to boost security coordination with Israel, despite domestic pressure to abandon these efforts.\r\n\r\nYet since becoming the leader of the Fatah party, the PLO, and the Palestinian Authority (PA) all at once, he has also projected an image of passivity and rigidity within negotiations with Israel. This is not to exonerate the role Israel plays on the other side of the table or others facilitating those talks. But it does raise questions about Palestinian limitations. Today, Abbas faces a paradox: The only way he can realize his avowed goal of ending the conflict and establishing a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza with East Jerusalem as its capital is through negotiations with Israel. Yet he is deeply constrained from negotiating concessions necessary to realize these goals.\r\n\r\nA President Without Gaza\r\n\r\nOne source of constraint is structural-- his rule extends to only part of the territory previously controlled by the Palestinian Authority. He lost control over Gaza when Hamas fighters violently took over the coastal strip in 2007. Since then, Palestinians have lived with two rival leaderships: Abbas\u2019 Fatah-led Palestinian Authority in the West Bank and Hamas\u2019 Islamist rule in Gaza. Historically, Hamas has been the champion against a two-state solution and Abbas\u2019 non-violence, negotiations, and security cooperation with Israel.\r\n\r\nThe assumption during negotiations since 2007 has been that a peace deal will attract Palestinians away from Hamas and its rejectionism once the Palestinian people are presented with the prospect of the benefits of an agreement. Yet the opposite has seemed to be far more likely: Hamas is poised like a sniper to shoot down any agreement or progress towards peace, labeling possible negotiating concessions Abbas makes as a betrayal of the Palestinian patrimony. When meeting President Trump on Wednesday, the Palestinian leader will have to explain how he can overcome Hamas\u2019 spoiler role and help produce an agreement, despite the Gaza leadership\u2019s opposition. Abbas will likely point to recent measures he has taken against Hamas in Gaza, such as cutting fuel subsidies and electricity payments, to demonstrate his willingness to challenge Hamas\u0027 leadership.\r\n\r\nA Legitimacy Crisis\r\n\r\nA second major constraint on Abbas\u2019 ability to sign a peace agreement is his own flagging political standing. He is in the thirteenth year of a presidential term that was originally meant to be limited to four years with no sign of new elections anytime soon owing to the territorial split with Gaza. Abbas has also failed to appoint a deputy or successor for any of his top leadership roles as head of Fatah, head of the PLO, and head of the PA. Abbas recently sought to bolster his standing last November by holding a General Conference of his ruling Fatah party. While that move may have temporarily solidified his standing and set back rivals, Fatah is hardly popular. The last time Fatah and Hamas competed in parliamentary elections, Fatah candidates took a beating in what was seen mainly as a protest vote against them.\r\n\r\nIn the subsequent decade, Fatah has done little to reform or rejuvenate itself and thereby remove the sources of popular discontent. As Ghaith al-Omari, a former negotiator and advisor to Abbas, points out, the Palestinian leadership is facing a \u201csevere legitimacy deficit\u201d due to its failures to deliver political achievements and its \u201crecord of poor governance and corruption and its highly restrictive grip on political space.\u201d Omari notes, \u201cIf these issues of legitimacy remain unaddressed, no leader can conclude peace\u2014no matter what the terms of the deal may be.\u201d\r\n\r\nChallenged Within His Base\r\n\r\nThis lack of popularity and fledgling legitimacy has contributed to a third challenge now facing Abbas: an incipient leadership challenge within his own Fatah party. Just two weeks ago, Marwan Barghouti, the Fatah leader imprisoned by Israel on five counts of murder and membership in a terrorist organization, launched a hunger strike that is as much a challenge against Abbas as it is against Israel. Barghouti, often polled as the most popular Palestinian rival to Abbas, was one of those marginalized by Abbas last November. He kicked off this hunger strike of over a thousand Palestinians imprisoned in Israel with an op-ed in the \u003Cem\u003ENew York Times\u003C\/em\u003E\u0026nbsp;portraying himself as an illegitimately-incarcerated Palestinian Nelson Mandela. As Abbas prepared for his upcoming meeting with President Trump, businesses and schools were shuttered throughout the West Bank and East Jerusalem in solidarity with the prisoners. In flexing this political muscle from prison, Barghouti is not only challenging Abbas\u2019 leadership, but further constraining the Palestinian president\u2019s freedom to maneuver in Washington and in future dealings with the prisoners\u2019 jailers: Israel.\r\n\r\nA Decisive Moment\r\n\r\nPresident Abbas meets on Wednesday a new U.S. president keenly interested in forging a comprehensive conflict-ending peace agreement, not in pursuing an open-ended peace process. Abbas must now convince President Trump on this visit that, despite the recent negotiating history and seemingly insurmountable Palestinian constraints, he can conclude the peace agreement Trump seeks. Moreover, he must decisively answer the question that looms large for many in Washington: Does Abbas seek a legacy as the man who ended the conflict with Israel and created a Palestinian state? Or does he seek to be the nationalist leader who stood tough resisting Israel and international pressure, albeit peacefully, and refused to concede one inch of Palestine\u2019s historic rights?\r\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n \n \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__metadata\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__publication-type\u0022\u003EPost\u003C\/span\u003E\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__authors\u0022\u003Eby Robert Danin\u003C\/span\u003E\n \n \n \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__date\u0022\u003E May 1, 2017\u003C\/span\u003E\n \n \n \u003Ca href=\u0022\/blog\/middle-east-matters\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__series\u0022\u003E\n Middle East Matters\n \u003C\/a\u003E\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n\n\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\u0022views-row\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\u0022views-field views-field-search-api-rendered-item\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022field-content\u0022\u003E\n\n \n\n\u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large article card-article-large--with-thumbnail\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__container\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__content\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__topic-tag\u0022\u003E\n \u003Ca href=\u0022\/middle-east-and-north-africa\/israel\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__topic-tag-link\u0022\u003E\n Israel\n \u003C\/a\u003E\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n \n \u003Ca href=\u0022\/blog\/president-trump-peace-processor \u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__link\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__title\u0022\u003E\n President Trump: Peace Processor\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__image\u0022\u003E\n \n \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__image-cover\u0022 style=\u0022background-image: url(\/\/cdn.cfr.org\/sites\/default\/files\/styles\/card_landscape_m_380x253\/public\/image\/2017\/02\/Netanyahu_Abbas.jpg.webp)\u0022\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n \u003C\/a\u003E\n\n \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__dek clamp-js\u0022 data-clamp-lines=\u00224\u0022\u003EPresident Donald Trump\u2019s evolving views on Israel and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict appear to be coming into greater focus as he prepares to welcome Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the White House later this week.\r\n\r\nOver the past few months, Trump has expressed two broad sentiments seemingly in tension with one another. In his first interview after the November 2016 vote, then President-elect Trump reiterated a previously expressed desire to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, calling it \u201cthe ultimate deal.\u201d\r\n\r\nHis desire to pursue such a deal has been matched, however, by a second strand of thinking, reflecting an admiration not only for Israel but also for its far-right settlers. The Israeli settlement movement opposes the idea of a Palestinian state and seeks Israel\u2019s annexation of the entire West Bank. The president seemed to be reinforcing his earlier financial support for the settlement enterprise when he appointed staunch settler supporter and fundraiser, David Friedman, to become the next U.S. ambassador to Israel. Friedman immediately announced his intention to live in Jerusalem, not Tel Aviv, since, he suggested, President Trump would soon be recognizing the Holy City as Israel\u2019s capital.\r\n\r\nFor months, many Middle East observers have wondered how President Trump will reconcile these two strains in his thinking\u2014the quest for the ultimate deal and his support for the settlers who claim all the land as their own. One indicator emerged over the weekend when Israel\u2019s largest circulation Israeli daily newspaper, \u003Cem\u003EIsrael Hayom\u003C\/em\u003E, published an interview with President Trump. The president had dined at the White House the night before with the free tabloid\u2019s pro-settlement founder and financier, Sheldon Adelson.\r\n\r\nIn a seeming rebuke to his dinner guest of the night before, President Trump clearly stated his concerns about continued Israeli settlement activity and their potential to impinge upon peace-making: \u201cThe [settlements] don\u2019t help the process, I can say that. There is so much land left. And every time you take land for settlements, there is less land left.\u201d That could only have meant: land left for the Palestinians. But lest there remain any ambiguity, President Trump stated clearly: \u201cI am not somebody that believes that going forward with these settlements is a good thing for peace.\u201d\r\n\r\nAt that moment, President Trump acknowledged not only the tension between continued settlement expansion and peace making efforts with the Palestinians, but his clear preference for peace-making. In doing so, Trump fell into line with 50 years of American thinking that has seen Israeli West Bank settlement expansion as unhelpful, at best.\r\n\r\nLest the \u003Cem\u003EIsrael Hayom \u003C\/em\u003Einterview be taken as a one-off, Netanyahu disclosed yesterday to his cabinet that two days after his inauguration, President Trump had privately informed the prime minister of his intention to pursue an Israeli-Palestinian peace deal. Told by Netanyahu that the Palestinians are unwilling to make a deal, Trump\u2019s response was, according to the Israeli leader: \u201cThey (the Palestinians) will want, they will make concessions.\u201d Having been put on notice by Trump of his intention to pursue Israeli-Palestinian peace, Netanyahu told his cabinet: \u201cwe mustn\u2019t get into a confrontation with him.\u201d\r\n\r\nHow President Trump intends to pursue peace and how he will succeed where his predecessors have all stumbled is yet to be determined. It seems that President Trump himself is not yet sure. He is taking a decidedly different approach in launching his efforts than that of his predecessor, President Barak Obama, who announced his intention of resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict with fanfare just two days after his inauguration. In contrast, President Trump is gradually revealing his intentions while consulting in an uncharacteristically low-key fashion with regional partners.\r\n\r\nYet Donald Trump, in one stark and unmistakable way, is no different than the eight presidents that preceded him: He is clearly and unambiguously a peace-processor.\r\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n \n \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__metadata\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__publication-type\u0022\u003EPost\u003C\/span\u003E\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__authors\u0022\u003Eby Robert Danin\u003C\/span\u003E\n \n \n \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__date\u0022\u003E February 13, 2017\u003C\/span\u003E\n \n \n \u003Ca href=\u0022\/blog\/middle-east-matters\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__series\u0022\u003E\n Middle East Matters\n \u003C\/a\u003E\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n\n\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n\n\n\n\n\t\t \t \u003Cli class=\u0022views-row\u0022\u003E\n\t \u003Cdiv class=\u0022views-field views-field-search-api-rendered-item\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022field-content\u0022\u003E\n\n \n\n\u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large article card-article-large--with-thumbnail\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__container\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__content\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__topic-tag\u0022\u003E\n \u003Ca href=\u0022\/middle-east-and-north-africa\/israel\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__topic-tag-link\u0022\u003E\n Israel\n \u003C\/a\u003E\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n \n \u003Ca href=\u0022\/blog\/president-trumps-settlement-policy-breaks-ground \u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__link\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__title\u0022\u003E\n President Trump\u2019s Settlement Policy Breaks Ground\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__image\u0022\u003E\n \n \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__image-cover\u0022 style=\u0022background-image: url(\/\/cdn.cfr.org\/sites\/default\/files\/styles\/card_landscape_m_380x253\/public\/image\/2017\/02\/Settlements.jpg.webp)\u0022\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n \u003C\/a\u003E\n\n \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__dek clamp-js\u0022 data-clamp-lines=\u00224\u0022\u003EFor the first dozen days of the Trump administration, it seemed to Israelis that they had a free hand to settle the West Bank. Israel announced its intention to build thousands of new houses, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stood before the Knesset and declared that Israel would establish its first new settlement in decades. Washington said nothing.\r\n\r\nThen, last Thursday night, the White House press secretary issued a statement that caught many in Washington\u2014and Israel\u2014off guard. The statement proclaimed 50 years of American continuity in seeking Israeli-Palestinian peace. It also reiterated President Trump\u2019s personal desire to \u201cachieve peace throughout the Middle East region\u201d\u2014another way of saying a comprehensive Arab-Israeli agreement.\r\n\r\nBut the statement also included two sentences that Israelis have been parsing ever since.\r\n\r\n\u0026nbsp;\r\n\r\nWhile we don\u2019t believe the existence of settlements is an impediment to peace, the construction of new settlements or the expansion of existing settlements beyond their current borders may not be helpful in achieving that goal...The Trump administration has not taken an official position on settlement activity and looks forward to continuing discussions, including with Prime Minister Netanyahu when he visits with President Trump later this month.\r\n\r\n\u0026nbsp;\r\n\r\nNot surprisingly, Israelis are in sharp disagreement over the meaning of these words. Writing in the mainstream \u003Cem\u003EYedioth Ahronoth\u003C\/em\u003E, Alex Fishman and Orly Azulai stated, \u201cThe White House issued a message that new settlements are an obstacle to peace.\u201d In contrast, Ariel Kahane, proclaimed on the pro-settler Israeli website \u003Cem\u003ENRG.co.il,\u003C\/em\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u201cNo matter which way you look at it, the White House\u2019s statement about Israeli settlement in Judea and Samaria is wonderful news.\u201d\r\n\r\nNo wonder Israelis are confused; packed into those two sentences are a number of messages.\r\n\r\nFirst, the Trump administration\u2019s statement represents a dramatically divergence on settlements philosophically from the Obama administration. The Obama administration clearly saw settlement activity as a primary reason for their failed peacemaking efforts, with Secretary of State John Kerry repeatedly declaring settlements \u201cillegitimate\u201d and, at least tacitly, illegal.\r\n\r\nThe Trump administration is registering a strong disagreement in principle: analytically, \u003Cem\u003Eexisting\u003C\/em\u003E Israeli settlements in the West Bank are not an impediment to peace. At the same time, the statement declares the White House philosophically uncommitted on the issue of future settlement activity, and called this an issue for future discussions with the Israeli government.\r\n\r\nAgainst this philosophical framework, the new White House at the same time drew a gentle yet unambiguous red line around certain Israeli settlement activities in practice, specifically against new settlements and the expansion of existing settlements \u201cbeyond their current borders.\u201d Settlement activity, per se, is not necessarily a problem for President Trump. However expanding settlements territorially\u2014i.e. building on more West Bank land\u2014is not acceptable.\r\n\r\nThis is a repackaging and reaffirmation of the settlement policy adopted by President George W. Bush that essentially said settlement activities are acceptable if they do not go beyond the building lines of existing settlements. That approach sought to neutralize any adverse impact of what Israelis call \u201cnatural growth\u201d\u2014expansion of the population among the more than half-million Israelis considered settlers by the international community. At the same time, putting in place a territorial limitation leaves open the potential for a viable, contiguous, and sovereign Palestinian state\u2014something opposed by the ideological hard-right in Israel.\r\n\r\nLast Thursday\u2019s statement is a huge disappointment to those Israelis who had believed they had a tacit green light from the Trump administration to settle anywhere in the land between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean. The United States has now clearly set some limits.\r\n\r\nYet for Benjamin Netanyahu, the Trump statement has evident benefits. It is a setback to the prime minister\u2019s right-wing challengers in his party and in his cabinet who have been calling on the prime minister to devote more resources to the settlements. Netanyahu can now say that with its recent spate of building announcements, Israel has tested the limits of the Trump administration and that to go further would be harmful.\r\n\r\nBut the statement was also a clear message to Netanyahu: President Trump plans to pursue an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement and he expects a constructive discussion about settlements when the two leaders meet in Washington next week.\r\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n \n \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__metadata\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__publication-type\u0022\u003EPost\u003C\/span\u003E\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__authors\u0022\u003Eby Robert Danin\u003C\/span\u003E\n \n \n \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__date\u0022\u003E February 6, 2017\u003C\/span\u003E\n \n \n \u003Ca href=\u0022\/blog\/middle-east-matters\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__series\u0022\u003E\n Middle East Matters\n \u003C\/a\u003E\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n\n\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n\t \u003C\/li\u003E\n\t\t \t \u003Cli class=\u0022views-row\u0022\u003E\n\t \u003Cdiv class=\u0022views-field views-field-search-api-rendered-item\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022field-content\u0022\u003E\n\n \n\n\u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large article card-article-large--with-thumbnail\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__container\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__content\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__topic-tag\u0022\u003E\n \u003Ca href=\u0022\/americas\/united-states\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__topic-tag-link\u0022\u003E\n United States\n \u003C\/a\u003E\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n \n \u003Ca href=\u0022\/blog\/paved-good-intentions-frances-middle-east-peace-conference \u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__link\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__title\u0022\u003E\n Paved with Good Intentions? France\u2019s Middle East Peace Conference\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__image\u0022\u003E\n \n \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__image-cover\u0022 style=\u0022background-image: url(\/\/cdn.cfr.org\/sites\/default\/files\/styles\/card_landscape_m_380x253\/public\/image\/2017\/01\/Kerry-Hollande_Pic.jpg.webp)\u0022\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n \u003C\/a\u003E\n\n \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__dek clamp-js\u0022 data-clamp-lines=\u00224\u0022\u003EThe Madrid peace conference in 1991 to launch comprehensive Arab-Israeli negotiations was a diplomatic triumph. The 2007 Annapolis conference relaunched peace-making and a new, well-prepared three track security, economic, and political process on pre-negotiated terms of reference just a few years after the violent second Intifada. These were important moments\u2014historically, and diplomatically.\r\n\r\nDespite best intentions, the 2017 Paris peace conference was neither historic nor constructive. The meeting was both poorly timed and ill-prepared, such that the two main parties\u2014the Israelis and Palestinians\u2014stayed away. Even Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was otherwise occupied. The absence of the two main protagonists to the conflict was the least of it. The meeting simply underlined outdated thinking that, left uncorrected, will harm future international diplomatic efforts to deliver peace to the Holy Land.\r\n\r\nIn an article penned several days ago for the Israeli daily \u003Cem\u003EHaaretz,\u003C\/em\u003E French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault laid out several core reasons for the conference: Ayrault argued that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, left unattended, will \u201ccontinue to fuel frustration and will ultimately only worsen the vicious cycle of radicalization and violence. It will continue to give budding terrorists excuses for enlisting.\u201d The dubious implication is that heinous and deadly terrorist attacks and violence unleashed recently in Cairo, Baghdad, and Istanbul\u2014not to mention Damascus, Aleppo, and Raqaa\u2014were the product of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.\r\n\r\nFurther justifying the conference he wrote, \u201cI have a very strong conviction\u2026that only a two-state solution will in time bring stability to the region and enable Israel to live in security.\u201d This statement is rooted in thinking from an era, long passed, when the Israeli-Arab conflict was the primary source of regional instability. Moreover, it implies, that former colonial powers such as France know better than Middle Easterners themselves what is in their best interests.\r\n\r\nThis sheer arrogance was remarkably explicit in the conference final communique yesterday in which the participants expressed their \u003Cem\u003Eexpectation\u003C\/em\u003E of how the democratically elected Israeli and Palestinian governments \u003Cem\u003Eshould\u003C\/em\u003E relate to their own government\u2019s officials: The conference \u201cparticipants \u003Cb\u003E\u003Cem\u003Eexpect\u003C\/em\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E (emphasis added) both sides to restate their commitment to the two-state solution, and to disavow official voices on their side that reject this solution.\u201d\r\n\r\nIsraeli and Palestinian leaders were explicitly called upon yesterday to disavow their own officials whose policy preferences are deemed disagreeable to the Paris conferees. This type of call to intervene in the domestic politics of a democratically elected government is what led British Prime Minister Theresa May to chastise Secretary of State Kerry\u2019s valedictory peace speech several weeks\u2019 ago. It may even explain, at least in part, why the British government limited its representation at the Paris conference to that of observer.\r\n\r\nSaving Israelis and Palestinians from their leaders is clearly what France had in mind for their conference. As French minister Ayrault put it, \u201cpromises of peace from both sides have disappeared and have been replaced by mistrust, resignation, and even false hope that the current situation can go on indefinitely. Saving the two state solution and safeguarding a future of peace and prosperity for peoples in the region is why the international community has decided to take action with the impetus of France.\u201d\r\n\r\nBut experience demonstrates that Western appeals to Middle Eastern peoples over the heads of their governments doesn\u2019t work. President Obama delivered a pitch-perfect speech in Jerusalem to Israelis in 2013 on the virtues of peace that had no discernible effect. Secretary of State John Kerry lectured Israelis and Palestinians about the need to take immediate action for four years\u2014all with no result. Why Ayrault believes Israelis and Palestinians would want to listen to the French government, rather than their own leaders, is unclear.\r\n\r\nIt is tempting to dismiss the Paris meeting as simply a harmless, yet heroic, effort to advance the noble cause of Middle East peace. But does it make sense for significant amounts of taxpayer euros and dollars to be devoted to a pointless conference when Europe and the Middle East are host to the world\u2019s largest refugee crisis since World War II? Against the backdrop of over a million recently displaced Middle Easterners, not a single Palestinian or Israeli life was enhanced by yesterday\u2019s conference. Nor was the cause of Palestine, Israel, or peace between them, in any way advanced.\r\n\r\nThe Paris conference squandered another precious and vital asset to the peaceful conduct of nations: diplomatic capital. Each time world leaders stand before microphones and espouse the need for Middle East peace without actually doing anything about it, the more they debase the currency of diplomacy, and the more they undermine the faith among Israelis and Palestinians that statecraft\u2014appropriately prepared and pursued\u2014can ever help the cause of peace. Trust among Israelis and Palestinians in the possibility of peace is further eroded by ill-timed and ill-conceived diplomatic efforts that seem more designed to express international moral outrage than to produce actual results.\r\n\r\nInternational meetings to help Israelis and Palestinians prepare conditions for peace can be constructive. But to be helpful, they must be pursued in ways that are considered legitimate to both parties to the conflict under dispute. A basic prerequisite for all diplomatic efforts\u2014one that French, American and other diplomats have refused to accept recently\u2014is that the views and positions of the protagonists to the conflict need to be taken into account for progress to be made.\r\n\r\nIf would-be peace-makers conclude that the parties themselves are not prepared to offer such views, or make necessary concessions, then diplomatic assets should not be wasted for a certain bad outcome. Better to focus instead on the tedious and unglamorous type of spadework that seeks to prepare the ground for a time when high-level conferences can actually help. This type of daily diplomacy never makes it into the headlines, but it is far more critical right now to explore what limited steps might be possible to help prepare conditions for a time when the parties are actually ready and empowered to negotiate in earnest.\r\n\r\nIt\u2019s not hard to see that neither the Palestinian nor the Israeli governments right now are positioned to move forward toward the two-state peace that the conveners of yesterday\u2019s meeting seek. If nothing else, the peripatetic efforts of outgoing Secretary of State John Kerry have provided a real-world experiment that tested the hypothesis that international goodwill and hard work can prevail upon the Israelis and Palestinians to make concession that they are not prepared to make. This reality makes Paris\u2019 call for a return to negotiations right now not only pointless, but misguided. It is not the message that international leaders should be sending to a new American president who takes office later this week.\r\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n \n \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__metadata\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__publication-type\u0022\u003EPost\u003C\/span\u003E\n \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__authors\u0022\u003Eby Robert Danin\u003C\/span\u003E\n \n \n \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__date\u0022\u003E January 16, 2017\u003C\/span\u003E\n \n \n \u003Ca href=\u0022\/blog\/middle-east-matters\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__series\u0022\u003E\n Middle East Matters\n \u003C\/a\u003E\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n \u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n\n\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n\t \u003C\/li\u003E\n\t\u003C\/div\u003E\n\n \n\n\n \n \n\n \n \n\u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n","settings":null}]