Middle East Matters

Significant Developments Palestinian Unity. The Israeli cabinet voted unanimously to suspend peace talks with the Palestinian Authority today because of the unity agreement announced yesterday between Fatah and Hamas. Rejecting the notion of negotiating with a government “backed by Hamas,” prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, “Whoever chooses the terrorism of Hamas does not want peace.” The deadline for the completion of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations set nine months ago by Secretary of State Kerry expires on April 29. See my analysis of the Palestinian reconciliation agreement in my blog post from yesterday. Qatar-GCC. In the first public comments by a Qatari official on last week’s agreement in Riyadh to end months of tension within the GCC, Qatari foreign minister Khalid bin Mohamed Al-Attiyah denied yesterday that Doha had made any concessions. While the details of the agreement have not been made public, there has been speculation that it included a Qatari agreement to tone down Al Jazeera’s coverage and to deport members of the Muslim Brotherhood. The dispute between Qatar and its neighbors escalated last month when Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE withdrew their ambassadors from Doha. Syria.  Maher Abdul-Hafiz Hajjar, a member of Syria’s People’s Assembly, yesterday became the first candidate to register to run in the June 3 presidential election called by the Syrian government on Monday. While President Bashar al-Assad is expected to run and win, more than one candidate must be on the ballot. Hajjar’s registration comes as rebels in Homs are reportedly making one last stand against regime forces launching a full-fledged assault on the city. With Homs expected to fall, opposition activists are torn between fleeing, surrendering, or fighting; Abu Rami, an activist, said that, “We can lose an area, and we can regain it. But the most important thing is not to kneel.” Meanwhile, Ahmet Uzumcu, head of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapon (OPCW) said today that he is considering an investigation into reports of a chemical weapon attack earlier this month in the village of Kfar Zeita. On Monday, White House spokesman Jay Carney announced that the United States is examining allegations that the Syrian regime was responsible for the attack and said that once the facts have been established, “we can talk about what reaction, if any, or response, if any, there would be from the international community.” Syria has pledged to hand over the remaining 7.5 percent of its chemical weapons stockpile that it has declared to the OPCW by the end of this week. U.S. Foreign Policy Egypt. The United States plans to deliver ten Apache helicopters to Egypt, thereby easing the military aid suspension imposed after the Egyptian military overthrew President Morsi in July. U.S. defense secretary Chuck Hagel informed Egyptian defense minister Sedki Sobhi of the decision in a phone call on Tuesday, April 29. The move comes after Secretary of State John Kerry certified to Congress that Egypt met key criteria, including upholding its obligations under the peace treaty with Israel, to resume some aid. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Oman-Algeria. Hackers targeted the website of Oman’s official news agency on Sunday in an attempt to criticize the opaque environment surrounding Algerian president Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s re-election last week. The hackers fabricated a news story about a letter from Sultan Qaboos of Oman to Bouteflika, describing him as a “handicapped” leader of a “dictatorship.” Oman News Agency later apologized to its clients for the hack. Last Friday, Bouteflika won a fourth term with more than 80 percent of the vote after the opposition unsuccessfully called for a general boycott of the elections. He cast his vote while sitting in a wheelchair, raising further doubts about his health status since suffering a stroke last year. Libya. Libya’s Constituent Assembly convened on Sunday to begin drafting a new constitution in Al-Baida on Monday. The special body has 120 days to draft a constitution. Meanwhile, the Libyan Parliament heard from the seven candidates on Sunday who are looking to succeed Abdullah al-Thani in his post as prime minister after he announced his resignation on April 13. The three prospective frontrunners appear to be Omar al-Hassi, from Benghazi, Mohammad Buker, former director of the civil state department, and Ahmad Miitig, a Libyan businessman. The election date has yet to be set. Kuwait. The Kuwaiti official news agency announced on Sunday that it had temporarily suspended publication of the Al Watan and Alam Al Yawm  newspapers for violating a prosecutor-ordered media blackout over an alleged coup plot. Waleed al-Jassim, the deputy editor of Al Watan, said that he is going to contest the ruling. Yemen. According to a spokesperson for the Yemeni embassy in Washington yesterday, the Yemeni government will make cash payments to the families of three civilians killed in airstrikes over the weekend. The series of strikes on Sunday and Monday reportedly targeted an al Qaeda training camp and killed fifty-five militants.

Hamas and Fatah have once again reached an agreement to overcome their split, claiming they will form a unity government within five weeks and hold general elections by December. There is little reason to believe that the unity agreement reached today in Gaza between Hamas and Fatah is any more credible, or stands any better chance of implementation, than the previous failed unity agreements between the two parties penned in Cairo and Doha. The fundamental issues that divide them remain: Hamas is interested in an Islamist agenda while Fatah opposes it. Hamas opposes a two-state peace solution to the conflict with Israel while Fatah supports it. Moreover, Hamas is loath to relinquish control of Gaza, and Fatah has no interest in sharing the West Bank with its political adversary. Both Fatah and Hamas have an interest right now in demonstrating efforts to seek unity, even if they never implement such an agreement. The idea of unity is very popular with a Palestinian public largely disenchanted with both Hamas and Fatah. That Palestinian elections have not been held since 2006 erodes both parties’ legitimacy and reinforces a popular image of Fatah and Hamas as more interested in power and its benefits than in delivering political or economic benefits to their people. For Hamas, unity efforts may give the group a political bounce at a time when the organization (and all of Gaza) is hurting from unprecedented Egyptian efforts on the ground to squeeze Hamas. Yet with Islamist parties on the defensive throughout the Middle East right now, why would Abbas agree to share power with his arch rivals and risk alienating potential Arab patrons who seek the destruction of the Muslim Brotherhood and their offshoots such as Hamas? For Abbas, talking to Hamas about unity when it is unlikely to be implemented is tactically attractive. In addition to its popularity, focusing on domestic politics right now by talking to Hamas can help deflect attention from negotiations with Israel that are likely to collapse by the end of this month. Abbas knows that moving forward on his stated intention to seek further international recognition for Palestine should the peace efforts fail could prove painful to him and the Palestinian people. Israel is likely to take punitive actions on the ground, and many international donors will probably withhold financial assistance as well as political support. Pursuing unity talks with Hamas can pivot Palestinian politics towards a domestic agenda away from the international one. When Hamas later fails to sign on to Abbas’ terms for unity or rejects allowing the PLO to retake control of Gaza, the Palestinian president can blame Hamas for thwarting efforts and Palestinian elections. At the same time, Abbas may also calculate that flirting with Hamas puts pressure on Israel to compromise in Secretary of State Kerry’s last-ditch efforts to keep negotiations going past the April 29 expiration deadline. Abbas may think that Netanyahu will want to keep the Palestinians from moving to a rejectionist stance in the absence of peace talks. If that is Abbas’ intention, it is likely to backfire. Rather than prompting Israelis to make endgame concessions to reach a deal right now, Abbas’ flirting with Hamas is more likely to provoke Netanyahu to point a finger at Abbas and say that the Palestinians are to blame for thwarting Kerry’s efforts, and that Abbas is really no partner for genuine peace. Netanyahu could choose to ignore the unity talks and diminish their significance while betting on their likely failure. But that would provide further ammunition to his political critics on the right. Moreover, Palestinian unity efforts make it all the more certain that Abbas will not budge on the one issue of primacy to Israeli negotiators—that the Palestinians recognize Israel as the nation-state of the Jewish people. It remains theoretically possible, though highly unlikely, that this time will be different, and that Hamas and Fatah will both see enough benefit in making fundamental compromises that would produce a mutually acceptable interim government leading to new elections. Failing that, the ensuing talks to cobble together a unity government will likely replace one set of fruitless talks—those between Israel and the Palestinians—with another set of negotiations with similarly poor prospects for realization.

Significant Developments Syria. Regime fighters reportedly made significant progress against opposition forces in Homs this week, as Syrian military forces began entering rebel districts on Monday, stepping up one of the strongest bombardments in months. Homs is considered the last main opposition stronghold in central Syria. Meanwhile, the Syrian regime and opposition representatives traded new accusations of using chemical weapons in an attack on the village of Kfar Zeita last Friday. U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Samantha Power, responded to reports of a chlorine gas attack on Sunday, saying, “So far it’s unsubstantiated…we will do everything in our power to establish what has happened and then consider possible steps in response.” According to the Syrian daily Al-Watan, a date for Syria’s upcoming presidential election will be announced next week by Mohamed Jihad Lahham, the speaker of the parliament. The vote is expected to be held before President Bashar Assad’s current term expires on July 17. On Monday, EU foreign ministers issued a statement calling the electoral process in Syria a “parody of democracy.” Plans to go through with elections were also criticized by U.N.-Arab League negotiator Lakhdar Brahimi, who stated that such a vote would push the opposition away from the negotiating table. A new law requires candidates to have lived in Syria for the previous ten years and hold no other nationality, thus excluding opposition figures in exile. Lebanon. Speaker of the Parliament Nabih Berri announced that parliamentary elections will take place next Wednesday, April 23. The new parliament will then be tasked to elect Lebanon’s new president on May 25 upon the completion of President Michel Sleiman’s term.  Meanwhile, Interior Minister Nouhad Machnouk announced Tuesday that the government will limit the entry of further Syrian refugees into Lebanon. “Syrian refugees are our guests, but the Lebanese government does not have the resources and infrastructure to endure their number,” Machnouk said as he announced that plans are being prepared to reduce the number of future Syrian refugees. According to the minister, 27 percent of the current total population in Lebanon is Syrian. Jordan. Jordanian warplanes destroyed three vehicles yesterday attempting to cross into the country from Syria. The Jordanian military did not provide specifics about the targeted vehicles, although the Syrian government released a statement saying that the vehicles did not belong to the Syrian military. The strike was the first open Jordanian use of military aircraft along its northern border since the Syrian conflict erupted. Saudi Arabia. The official Saudi Press Agency reported on Tuesday that Intelligence chief Prince Bandar bin Sultan stepped down from his post, a move that has been rumored for weeks. The decision was announced in a royal decree that also named General Youssef al-Idrissi Saudi Arabia’s new acting Intelligence chief. Bandar had been appointed to the position in July 2012 and ran Saudi Arabia’s Syria policy until Interior Minister Prince Mohammed Nayef al-Saud took it over earlier this year in February. U.S. Foreign Policy Iran. The IAEA reported in its monthly update released today that Iran is complying with the interim nuclear deal struck by Iran and the P5+1 countries last November. Tehran expects to receive a fifth tranche of funds that were previously frozen overseas by the end of this week. Iranian President Rouhani said on Tuesday, “If it goes on with the same trend, the final agreement could be reached within six months.”  However, General Hossein Dehghan on Wednesday said that Iran’s ballistic missiles are not open to discussion , rebuffing earlier comments by State Department nuclear negotiator Wendy Sherman, who has said Iran’s missile program should be addressed as part of an agreement with Iran. Meanwhile, Tehran formally protested the U.S. refusal to grant Iran’s proposed new UN ambassador, Hamid Aboutalebi, a visa to enter the United States. Washington had officially declined the visa request since Aboutalebi worked as a translator for the group responsible for the 1979 hostage crisis in Tehran. The Iranians claim that the United States has breached the U.S.-UN Host Country Agreement by denying the visa. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Israel-Palestine. Israeli and Palestinian negotiators are scheduled to meet today with U.S. envoy Martin Indyk, after their most recent scheduled meeting was postponed. Israeli sources claimed the meeting was postponed after an Israeli officer was killed near Hebron on Monday while driving with his family; Palestinian sources said the meeting was delayed so that Indyk could participate. Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu blamed the Palestinian leadership for the killing, stating that, “assassination is the result of the incitement to hatred by Palestinian Authority leaders who continue to peddle hate-filled material against Israel.” Earlier this week, Israeli foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman announced that secret talks were being held between Israel and “moderate” Arab states. In his announcement on Monday, Lieberman argued that the Iranian regional threat had mitigated anti-Israeli sentiment and stated that, “We will have a situation in which we have full diplomatic relations with most of the moderate Arab states…and you can count on my word.” GCC. A Jordanian official announced on Tuesday that Morocco and Jordan had been formally invited by the Gulf Cooperation Council to create a military alliance in late March. The agreement, which is currently under consideration by the two governments, aims to address the shortage of manpower in the GCC; Morocco and Jordan would bring 300,000 troops in exchange for financial aid from the Gulf countries. The GCC and Jordan and Morocco reportedly agreed to a framework for a strategic partnership over a year ago. Algeria. More than twenty-two million Algerians will head to the polls today to choose the next Algerian head of state. While incumbent President Bouteflika seeks a fourth term and is widely expected to win the upcoming elections while the leading opponent, former prime minister Ali Benflis, hopes for an unlikely last-minute comeback. Campaigning ended last Sunday after Bouteflika accused Benflis of “terrorism through television” for making statements about possible electoral frauds. Libya. Jordan’s ambassador to Libya, Fawaz al-Aitan, was kidnapped by gunmen on Tuesday, according to an announcement made by Libya’s foreign ministry. The kidnappers called the ambassador’s wife following the abduction and told her that al-Aitan was in good health. Al-Aitan was the first Arab ambassador to be posted in Libya after the revolution. Turkey. A delegation of Twitter executives met with government representatives this week to discuss the future of social media access in the country after Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan dubbed it “the worst menace to society.” While the government presented a long list of demands, including the establishment of a Turkish company office and the company’s revelation of certain users. Twitter reportedly agreed to make certain posts invisible to domestic Turkish audiences. Bahrain. Eleven Shiite demonstrators were sentenced to five years in jail following a clash with police forces last year near the capital. This is the last case in a long series of arrests of Shiites following the February 2011 unrest. Kuwait. According to speaker of the parliament Marzouk al-Ghanem, Kuwaiti prime minister al-Sabah said videotapes showing alleged senior former officials organizing a coup were “tampered with.” Kuwait’s information ministry announced a gag order this week barring any statements to the media regarding an ongoing investigation into the existence of a videotape that allegedly contains sensitive information about former prime minister Sheikh Nasser Al Mohammed Al Ahmad Al Sabah and Jasem Al Khorafi, the former speaker of the parliament. Egypt. Egypt’s former defense minister Abdel Fattah al-Sisi submitted eight times the amount of signatures required to the election commission on Monday, finalizing his presidential candidacy. Al-Sisi’s likely rival is Hamdeen Sabahi, who came in third during the first round of 2012 elections eventually won by Morsi.