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U.S. President Donald Trump (L) and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas wait for photographers to depart before beginning their meeting at the Presidential Palace in the West Bank city of Bethlehem (Jonathan Ernst/Reuters).

Reading The Trump Administration in Ramallah

by Robert Danin August 6, 2018

Does the United States seek relations with Hamas in Gaza and to undermine the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) leadership in the West Bank? Palestinians officials and insiders asked me this question repeatedly during a recent visit to Ramallah. At first, the question seems strange. How could well-informed insiders come to wonder if the United States prefers to deal with an Islamist terrorist organization to a leadership that avows non-violence and actively pursues security cooperation with Israel on a daily basis? Read More

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This Week: Egypt’s Likely New President, Arab League Paralysis, and Turkish-Syrian Fighting

Significant Developments Egypt. Field Marshal and Defense Minister Abdel Fattah al-Sisi yesterday resigned from the military and announced his candidacy for president. Ibrahim Munir, a member of the political bureau of the Muslim Brotherhood, declared in response to the announcement that al-Sisi is “a man who has killed daily since the coup” and that “there can be no stability or security under the shadow of Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in the presidency.” The move comes just days before nominations are scheduled to begin on Sunday. Thus far only one other candidate, Hamdeen Sabbahi who came in third in the 2012 presidential election, has declared his intention to enter the race. Meanwhile, protests erupted across Egypt yesterday against the mass trials earlier this week of Morsi supporter. On Monday, an Egyptian court sentenced 529 people to death in the largest mass death sentencing in Egypt’s history, followed the next day by the beginning of a second mass trial of 682 alleged Muslim Brotherhood supporters, including Muslim Brotherhood supreme guide Mohamed Badie. Yesterday, Egypt’s chief prosecutor ordered two new mass trials for 919 suspected Morsi supporters. U.S. secretary of state John Kerry expressed his concern yesterday saying that he is “deeply, deeply troubled” and that anything short of a reversal of the ruling would “dishonor the bravery of all who sacrificed their lives for democratic values.” Arab League. A two-day summit of Arab leaders concluded in Kuwait yesterday without issuing a final communiqué. However, a closing declaration was read, rejecting recognizing Israel as a Jewish state and calling for a Syrian political settlement. The conference barely masked increasingly deepening differences, particularly among Gulf countries, over how to deal with Islamists in the region. Tensions were particularly acute over Qatar’s support of Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood and Saudi Arabia’s position on the Syrian conflict. One diplomat noted that, “Behind closed doors there is tension, but it’s all under the table, no confrontation was made ([in public].” Turkey-Syria. Turkish foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu warned this Wednesday that threats against Turkish national security will be met by military action, including possible cross-border operations. The warning came several days after the Turkish military shot down a Syrian fighter plane that had allegedly entered the country’s airspace on Sunday. The downing was announced by Erdogan at a political campaign rally that same afternoon, leading to a further escalation of tensions between the Syrian regime and the Turkish government. Meanwhile, an Ankara administrative court overturned a ban on Twitter yesterday that the government imposed last week. U.S. Foreign Policy Saudi Arabia. President Obama will meet King Abdullah in Riyadh on Friday in what has been described as an attempt to reassure the monarchy following U.S. efforts to strike a deal with Iran. Last week, Deputy National Security Adviser Ben Rhodes described the visit as “an important opportunity to invest in one of our most important relationships in the Middle East.” Obama and Abdullah are expected to discuss U.S. support for Gulf security, support for the Syrian opposition, the peace process, and Iran. Israel-Palestine. Secretary of State John Kerry met with Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas for a four hour working dinner last night in Amman in an attempt to keep the peace process alive. The sudden visit comes at a critical point in Israeli-Palestinian negotiations and over an expected release of Palestinian prisoners. Israel is scheduled to release the final tranche of prisoners tomorrow, however, key leadership figures in the Israeli government have protested against the last release claiming that the Palestinian have not followed through on their commitment to nine months of negotiations. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Syria. The New York Times reported on Tuesday that CIA director John Brennan recently told a House panel that he is concerned that al-Qaeda operatives and planners from Pakistan and Afghanistan are trying to set up launching pads in Syria. Meanwhile, new clashes between Syrian rebel forces and the Syrian military took place yesterday near the coastal town of Latakia. The town, home to the Alawite minority of Syria, has been the target of a five-day assault by rebels from Islamist groups including the Nusra Front. Yemen. Twenty-two soldiers were killed by militants in southeastern Yemen on Monday. The attack consisted of a suicide car bomb and then a raid on a security checkpoint. Yemeni Minster of the Interior later said that three senior security officers have been temporarily suspended as authorities begin their investigations on the assault. Iraq. Pressures for electoral reform began mounting in Iraq after polling chiefs submitted their resignation yesterday in protest of parliamentary and judicial interference. Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki will seek his third term in the election, which is currently scheduled for April 30. Libya. The trial of Seif al-Islam and Saadi Qaddafi, two of General Muammar Qaddafi’s sons, is scheduled to begin on April 16. They are among a group of more than thirty officials standing trial on a variety of charges including murder, crimes against humanity, and embezzlement of funds. Libya’s General National Congress amended the Libyan criminal code on Sunday to allow al-Islam to “attend” his trial in Tripoli via video-link. Seif is currently held by a militia in Zintan, which has previously refused to transfer him to Tripoli over concern that remnants of Qaddafi’s regime in the judiciary system might declare him innocent. Bahrain. Twenty-nine Shiites were jailed in Bahrain on Wednesday for an April 2012 attack on a police center. The defense claimed that their confessions were obtained under duress and through torture tactics.

Blog Post by Robert Danin March 27, 2014 Middle East Matters

United States

This Week: U.S.-Palestinian Summit, Piracy in Libya, Negotiations with Iran

Significant Developments Israeli-Palestinian Peace. President Barack Obama met with Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas at the White House on Monday. The two leaders discussed the April 29 deadline set by the United States for a framework agreement. Obama told reporters at the top of the meeting that risks would have to be taken if progress is to be made. In the meeting, Abbas reportedly requested the release of Marwan Barghouti, one of the most senior prisoners held by Israel, as one way to possibly extend the talks. Chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat noted on Tuesday that “the meeting was difficult and the meeting was long” and that it did not produce an official American proposal. Thousands of Palestinian Fatah supports rallied in the West Bank on Monday in support of Abbas. Meanwhile, Israel is slated to release the fourth and final tranche of “pre-Oslo prisoners” by March 29 as part of an agreement brokered when this latest round of peace talks was launched last summer. On Tuesday, Israeli justice minister Tzipi Livni linked the last prisoner release to progress in the talks: “In order to advance serious negotiations, we will all need to take decisions and prove we are determined to reach an agreement and real peace. That burden of proof is also on the Palestinians’ shoulders.” The Palestinians say they will abandon the talks if Israel does not release the last group of prisoners. Until now 78 of 104 Palestinian prisoners have been released by Israel. Libya. Libyan militia leader Ibrahim Jathran accused the United States on Tuesday of behaving like “pirates” after U.S. naval forces seized an oil tanker on Sunday in the eastern Mediterranean that was seeking buyers for illicit Libyan oil. Libya’s government thanked the United States for seizing and returning the tanker and preventing rebel militia from gaining control of Libyan oil. Jathran heads an eastern militia that has blockaded three of Libya’s key oil-exporting ports for the last eight months in a bid for autonomy in eastern Libya. The lack of control of oil revenues led Libya’s parliament to pass a vote of no-confidence in Prime Minister Ali Zeidan last week. Following the vote, Abdullah al-Thinni, the interim defense minister, was appointed acting prime minister. Iran. The second round of talks between Iran and the P5+1 countries on a permanent agreement on Iran’s nuclear program concluded yesterday in Vienna. EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton and Iranian foreign minister Mohammed Javad Zarif called the talks “useful” and announced a third round to be held April 7-9. According to a senior American official, the talks touched on many of the sensitive issues, including uranium enrichment and the heavy-water reactor at Arak. The talks began on January 20 with an objective of reaching a final agreement by July. U.S. Foreign Policy Israel. Israeli defense minister Moshe Yaalon apologized yesterday in a phone call to U.S. secretary of defense Chuck Hagel for comments made on Monday criticizing the United States for demonstrating weakness globally. The apology came after Secretary John Kerry called Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu to complain about Yaalon’s comments. At a Tel Aviv University event, Yaalon was quoted saying, “If you sit and wait at home, the terrorism will come again…This is a war of civilizations. If your image is feebleness, it doesn’t pay in the world.” He also said that U.S. aid to Israel “isn’t a favor America is doing, it’s in their interest.” It is the second time that Yaalon has apologized to the United States for remarks deemed critical of Washington. Syria. Daniel Rubenstein, the new U.S. envoy for Syria, announced the closing of the Syrian embassy in Washington on Tuesday. While not officially breaking diplomatic relations with Syria, Rubenstein said that it is “unacceptable for individuals appointed by that regime to conduct diplomatic or consular operations in the United States.” Syrian diplomats have until the end of March to leave the country. The United States closed its embassy in Damascus in 2012. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Syria. Israel launched air strikes on three Syrian military positions yesterday in response to a roadside bomb that exploded on the Golan Heights Tuesday that injured four Israeli soldiers. Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that, “Our policy is clear. We hurt those who hurt us.” Meanwhile, the OPCW, the Hague-based organization overseeing the elimination of Syria’s chemical weapons, announced yesterday that 45 percent of Syria’s arsenal has been removed from the country. It was the first status update since the deadline was pushed back from February 6 to the end of April. Saudi Arabia. A Saudi court sentenced thirteen people yesterday to prison terms for supporting terrorism and recruiting and helping people travel to Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan to fight. According to the Saudi Press Agency, the thirteen people sentenced included nine Saudis, two Jordanians, an Egyptian, and a Syrian. Earlier in March, Saudi Arabia listed the Muslim Brotherhood and al-Qaeda affiliates in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen as terrorist organizations. Algeria. According to Abdelmalek Sellal, a former prime minister who is currently running President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s reelection campaign, Bouteflika intends to amend Algeria’s constitution to introduce reforms to strengthen democracy if he is reelected next month. According to Human Rights Watch, the Algerian police have arrested protesters to prevent widespread demonstrations during the upcoming presidential elections, scheduled for April 17. Bouteflika is expected to win the election. Egypt. An Egyptian court condemned police officer Lieutenant Colonel Amr Farouk on Tuesday to ten years of prison over the deaths of thirty-seven prisoners. The victims allegedly suffocated from tear gas in a police van during the crackdown on Morsi supporters on August 18, 2013. The decision comes four days after Egyptian security forces stormed two sit-ins organized by supporters of deposed president Morsi in Cairo.

Blog Post by Robert Danin March 20, 2014 Middle East Matters

United States

President Obama’s March Summit with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu

President Barack Obama hosts Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington on Monday. The last time the two leaders met together—September 30, 2013, in the same Oval Office—Obama had big news for the Israeli leader: his administration had been engaged in secret high-level negotiations for the previous seven months with Israel’s most menacing adversary, Iran. The upcoming Israeli-American summit will surely lack such drama. While their conversation will focus on the same two issues that have dominated their nearly five year long dialogue—Iran and peace with the Palestinians—the discussion now will be over major negotiating tactics, not fundamental strategy. President Obama will not spend time trying to keep Israeli aircraft from attacking Iranian nuclear facilities nor will he push Netanyahu to stop settlement activity. For now, the Obama administration is in the driver’s seat, leading negotiations both with Iran and between Israel and the Palestinians. Netanyahu is largely a bystander to one process and a reactive participant in the other. Differences between the United States and Israel have not been removed so much as deferred. Netanyahu will react to Obama; he is not positioned to advocate a wholly different approach on either front. Iran: The fundamental gap between Obama and Netanyahu’s objectives regarding Iran remains: the American leader’s goal is to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, the Israeli objective is to see Iran deprived of the capability to develop a nuclear weapon. But the United States has signed an interim nuclear accord with Tehran in the period since Obama and Netanyahu last met, and negotiations on a comprehensive deal between the P5+1 and Iran are ongoing. Given the now open U.S.-Iranian channel, the Israeli leader will settle, for now, on trying to affect Obama’s negotiating behavior. Israel’s declaratory position is to demand no Iranian enrichment. In recent talks with Israeli officials, lead U.S. negotiator Wendy Sherman suggested that position, while desirable, is unattainable. While Netanyahu will adhere to his public position, in private he is more likely to focus on the types of constraints on Iranian enrichment activity necessary to both detect and prevent an Iranian breakout attempt. Should the negotiations with Iran produce an agreement with ample safeguards, Israel’s planes will likely remain grounded. Israeli-Palestinian peace: With the Obama administration’s self-imposed deadline of April 2014 for a comprehensive, conflict-ending Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement rapidly approaching, Middle East peace will once again feature prominently in the two leader’s discussions. But expect no dramatic fireworks on this front either. The Obama administration, recognizing that a comprehensive peace treaty will not be signed over the next few months, is now reportedly preparing a “framework agreement” that it will soon present to the Israelis and Palestinians. While this remains a work in progress, with details yet to be outlined publicly, Secretary of State John Kerry is apparently preparing an outline that largely meets Netanyahu’s objectives on two issues of paramount concern to him: recognition of Israel as a Jewish state, and robust security arrangements for Israel as part of a peace agreement. On the area most likely to prove difficult for Netanyahu to agree to at this time—the final status of Jerusalem—the United States is reportedly preparing formulas sufficiently vague so as to be unobjectionable to the Israeli leader or his coalition partners. This effort to remove Israeli negotiating objections is likely to achieve its intended result. The word out of Jerusalem late this week is that Netanyahu will probably accept the U.S. formula, or at least not reject it outright. The prime minister’s coalition partners most likely to oppose significant concessions seem to prefer a U.S. approach that keeps Israeli-Palestinian negotiations going while allowing them to keep their ministerial posts. Hence, the upcoming Obama-Netanyahu Oval Office meeting is likely to end in public professions of friendship and comity. However, such an encounter would then set the stage for a potentially more difficult tete-a-tete when President Obama hosts Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas on March 17. White House officials backgrounded the press this week saying “now is a very timely opportunity for [the president] to get involved.” Yet according to the Palestinian daily al-Quds, Abbas reacted angrily to the American proposals when he met recently with Secretary Kerry in Paris. To be sure, much haggling will likely continue behind the scenes. The March summits with Netanyahu and then Abbas will test whether or not this is indeed a “timely opportunity” for President Obama.

Blog Post by Robert Danin February 28, 2014 Middle East Matters

Syria

Syria By the Numbers VI

Last month, the United Nations announced that it had stopped updating its official death toll from Syria’s conflict due to an inability to verify sources. The UN’s last estimate of over 100,000 people killed was released in late July 2013. Here at Middle East Matters, I have continued to compile data from Syria’s brutal conflict. Our sources include the Violations Documentation Center in Syria (VDC), the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), and the Syrian Revolution Martyr Database, as well as refugee numbers from the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees. To see just how dramatically the war has affected the Syrian people in the past twenty-one months since our first post, compare the figures below with the corresponding statistics for the months September 2013, May 2013, October 2012, August 2012, and June 2012. These figures speak themselves. Length of Conflict 35 months Deaths Total estimated deaths: 140,041** Total estimated opposition deaths: 88,519 – 97,505 Total estimated regime deaths: 12,046 Civilian: 65,255 – 77,616 Children: 10,238 – 10,256 Opposition military: 19,889 – 23,270 **Estimated deaths as of February 14, 2014, by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights Deaths by Province Rural Damascus: 20,461 – 23,406 Aleppo: 16,660 – 17,902 Homs: 12,360 – 13,798 Idlib: 9,555 – 10,275 Daraa: 7,903 – 8,341 Damascus: 6,298 – 7,504 Hama: 5,927 – 6,625 Deir Ezzor: 5,106 – 5,222 Al-Raqqa: 1,082 – 1,420 Latakia: 924 – 1,026 Al-Hasakah: 617 – 794 Tartous: 338 – 527 Quneitra: 597 – 650 Al-Suweida: 65 – 68 UN Refugees – Registered or Waiting to be Registered Total number of refugees registered or awaiting registration by the UN: 2,492,495 Total number of registered refugees: 2,443,132 Persons awaiting registration: 49,363 Turkey Total number of registered refugees: 612,570 Persons awaiting registration: 0 Jordan Total number of registered refugees: 573,425 Persons awaiting registration: 0 Lebanon Total number of registered refugees: 882,204 Persons awaiting registration: 49,636 Iraq Total number of registered refugees: 222,574 Persons awaiting registration: 0 Egypt Total number of registered refugees: 134,014 Persons awaiting registration: 0 Aid Total funding required for the Syria Regional Response Plan (RRP): $2,981,640,112 Total funded: $2,118,772,943 A closing note: During the recent failed spate of negotiations in Geneva, the casualty rate in Syria increased, with some 6,000 people killed over the duration of the internationally sponsored peace effort.

Blog Post by Robert Danin February 19, 2014 Middle East Matters

Israel

This Week: Syria’s Machinations, Egypt’s Presidency, and Iran’s Bravado

Significant Developments Syria. Russia today presented a draft resolution on Syrian humanitarian aid access that includes a condemnation of “terrorism” to the UN Security Council. Yesterday, Russian deputy foreign minister Gennady Gatilov rejected a proposed resolution on humanitarian aid access drafted by Australia, Jordan, and Luxembourg that demanded “all parties, in particular the Syrian authorities, immediately end the sieges of the Old City of Homs.” Gatilov denounced the Western-backed resolution as an attempt to lay the groundwork for a military strike against Bashar al-Assad’s government if its demands are not met. Meanwhile, the humanitarian ceasefire in Homs was extended for an additional three days today. Over 1400 men, women, and children have been evacuated from besieged parts of Homs since the ceasefire first took effect last Friday. The Syrian opposition presented a plan for a post-war Syria yesterday in Geneva, calling for a transitional governing body that would oversee a total ceasefire under UN monitoring. All foreign fighters would be driven out of Syria under the plan. The opposition’s confidential draft, shown to international mediator Lakhdar Brahimi, made no mention of the fate of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. The Syrian government delegation has not officially responded to the proposal yet, although it has suggested that negotiations need to focus first on fighting terrorism. Syrian deputy foreign minister Faisal Mekdad said that, “We are not closed to discussing any issue. But we have to discuss them one by one.” The exchange came after a discouraging beginning to the second round of talks on Monday. International mediator Lakhdar Brahimi is scheduled to meet with Russian and U.S. officials today in an effort to give new momentum to the talks. Meanwhile, Sigrid Kaag, head of the UN-Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons mission overseeing the dismantling of Syria’s chemical arsenal, has urged the Assad regime to speed up operations. This happened after the government missed two important deadlines in December and early February, leading to western concerns of a deliberate slow-down by the regime. Egypt. Russian president Vladimir Putin today endorsed field marshal Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to become Egypt’s next president. In his first visit outside of Egypt since coming to power in early July, Sisi is visitng Moscow to negotiate a $2 billion arms deal with Russia. According to state-owned al-Ahram, Russia would be the tentative broker of a deal funded mainly by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Meanwhile, the State Department disclosed yesterday that Egyptian authorities have detained a local U.S. embassy employee for almost three weeks without any official charges. American officials say that Ahmed Aleiba, an Egyptian citizen who works for the American embassy was arrested on January 25. According to military-aligned newspaper al-Watan, Aleiba had arranged meetings between U.S. government officials and Muslim Brotherhood deputy head Khairat el-Shater last July. Iran. Iran celebrated the thirty-fifth anniversary of the Islamic Revolution on Tuesday. President Hassan Rouhani told a crowd of tens of thousans of Iranians gathered for celebrations that “Iran will maintain a permanent nuclear program.” Throughout his remarks, Rouhani emphasized a purported absence of a military option against Iran by any western country and called for Iran to move past the internal divisions that emerged following Ahmadinejad’s contested reelection in 2009. His statements came shortly after International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors signaled on Monday their determination to get to the bottom of allegations that Iran may have worked on a nuclear bomb design. Meanwhile, Iranian defense minister Brigadier General Hossein Dehqan announced on Monday the successful test launch of two new missiles, including a long-range missile capable of evading radar. U.S. Foreign Policy Jordan. King Abdullah of Jordan will meet President Obama in California tomorrow. Abdullah met yesterday with Vice President Joe Biden and Congressional leaders during his visit to Washington. According to the White House, Abdullah and Biden discussed achieving a sustainable political solution in Syria. The Jordanian monarch stressed the need for emergency humanitarian access following his meeting with Speaker John Boehner on Tuesday. The bilateral discussions are part of an administration outreach effort to Arab allies that also includes a visit by President Obama to Saudi Arabia in late March. See my take on this outreach here. Israel-Palestine. The White House announced yesterday that President Obama will host Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu on March 3. Netanyahu is scheduled to address the 2014 AIPAC conference on March 4 in Washington. Meanwhile, Palestinian spokesman Nabil Abu Rudeineh stated on Tuesday that an Israeli-Palestinian agreement would be “useless” if the two parties were allowed to express reservations. Abu Rudeineh said that the “use of the word ‘reservations’ bogs down the peace process and the use of this concept in the past has got the process stuck.” On Saturday, U.S. secretary of State John Kerry said Israeli and Palestinian leaders needed “to have the right to be able to have some objection.” While We Are Looking Elsewhere Yemen. President Abed Rabbou Mansur Hadi on Monday formally approved turning the country into a six-region federation. While the move was intended to grant the south more autonomy, it was immediately rejected by southerners pushing for secession. Opposition also came from northern Shia Houthi rebels on Tuesday, who said that the division of the republic does not distribute wealth evenly. Meanwhile, the Yemeni government handed twenty-nine al-Qaeda militants to Saudi Arabia on Tuesday. According to the Yemeni defense ministry website, the fighters were Saudi nationals. Iraq. An instructor for the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) that had been teaching militant recruits to make a car bomb accidentally set one off on Monday, killing twenty-one of the recruits in a blast. The blast brought the training camp’s exisitence to the attention of Iraqi authorities, who then arrested over twenty operatives. The late instructor may become a nominee for a posthumous Darwin Award. Kuwait. Following in Saudi footsteps, a member of Kuwait’s parliament, Nabil al-Fadl, proposed a law that would make Kuwaitis participating or instigating participation in conflicts abroad face up to thirty years in jail. The law would penalize members of the National Guard or police more heavily than civilians. In order to pass, the law will need to be approved by the emir, the government, and the parliament. Libya. The headquarters of Tripoli-based Libyan television channel al-Assema were rocked by three blasts yesterday morning. Al-Assema, known for its anti-Islamists stance, has been accused by Islamist groups of instigating demonstrations against the General National Congress. The attack comes after six journalists have been kidnapped in recent days in Tripoli. Israel-Palestine. A municipal planning committee gave preliminary approaval for a plan to build a Yeshiva in the East Jerusalem neighborhood of Sheikh Jarrah. The news of the municipality’s action led Palestinian officials to accuse the Israeli government of efforts to undermines Secretary Kerry’s peace efforts.

Blog Post by Robert Danin February 13, 2014 Middle East Matters