Middle East Matters

President Obama meets King Abdullah of Jordan on Friday in California. The president will also travel to Saudi Arabia in March, just after Secretary of State John Kerry makes a special stop in the United Arab Emirates. All three of these events are part of a larger whole: an attempt by the Obama administration to reassure key American Arab allies that the United States is not retreating from the Middle East or going soft on its leadership role in the world. This effort was exemplified by the extraordinary joint plea by Secretaries Hagel and Kerry recently at the Munich Security Conference to skeptical European partners. The upcoming diplomatic outreach by President Obama to U.S. Arab partners is positive and necessary. The critical question is: will it help smooth ruffled feathers? The White House should harbor no illusions that mere back-slapping and hand-holding will suffice. If Washington is saying: “The meeting is the message,” the Arabs will instead be asking: “What have you done for us lately, and where are you heading?” For the upcoming outreach to the Arabs to be truly effective, America’s top officials will need to bring compelling answers to three critical questions that their Arab partners will pose: First, Iran: “What is the Obama administration’s game plan for Iran?” President Obama and Secretary Kerry will doubtlessly stress their commitment to preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons. That message won’t do. What the Arabs really want to know is whether or not Washington is seeking a much broader modus vivendi with Iran that will lead to a new and “more balanced” security architecture in the region. Is Washington going to continue to seek Iran’s isolation and containment? Or does the United States, as the Arabs now fear, seek to engage, temper, and ultimately reincorporate Iran into its old role as a pillar of Gulf stability? Second, Syria:  What is the United States’ objective in Syria? Is it to contain the fighting, continue to pursue some sort of diplomatic track with the regime it once called on to step down, and to give primacy to Syria’s weapons of mass destruction? Administration calls for Assad to step down as part of a political process, and confidential assurances that limited U.S. covert assistance is now underway, will do little to convince the Arabs that the administration does not seek to get by with as little involvement as possible. Indeed, it will lead Gulf Arabs to conclude that they should redouble their efforts to pour arms and money into Syria pursuing goals clearly not aligned with U.S. interests. Cautionary words by Obama or Kerry to the Arab allies will surely fall on deaf ears. Third, Egypt: President Obama’s silence on Egypt in his State of the Union did not go unnoticed in the Middle East, and is seen as a reflection of a hands-off approach to the Arab world’s most populous country, and main epicenter of the 2011 Arab uprisings. Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and the Emirates have all welcomed, mainly through dollar diplomacy, the July 3, 2013 coup (or military action as some prefer) that toppled the Morsi government. They will now want to know if Washington’s policy remains the one articulated by Secretary Kerry in his last visit to Egypt in November: that Egypt is on the road to democracy. If so, they will be pleased. Hints by Obama or Kerry to quietly urge restraint by Egypt’s military will be met by subtle admonitions by their Arab hosts—however unjustified—that countries that abandon their allies in times of trouble should remain silent when things then quiet down. When they meet with their Saudi, Jordanian, and Emirati interlocutors, Kerry and Obama will surely highlight their Sisyphusian efforts to advance the cause of Israeli-Palestinian peace, and the president will seek to assure them that he stands squarely behind his secretary of state’s mission to bring peace to the Holy Land. The Arabs will welcome these American peace efforts and encourage them to continue. But long gone are the days when Americans could engender Arab felicitations by focusing on the peace process. Today’s Middle East turmoil has brought about threats that U.S. allies see as existential. Unless Obama and Kerry can credibly answer pressing questions on Iran, Syria, and Egypt, whatever goodwill engendered by this outreach is likely to be as enduring as the jet contrails that will follow their aircraft when they depart their meetings.

Significant Developments Syria. The United Nations and Syria agreed today to allow humanitarian aid into the besieged old city of Homs, and to allow women and children safe passage out. The agreement came just hours after Syrian rebels announced a new campaign in Aleppo against government forces which escalated its air assault earlier this week. On Sunday, al-Qaeda’s central leadership officially cut its ties to the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), a major insurgent group that operates in Syria and Iraq and has caused widespread conflict among rebel factions fighting against Bashar al-Assad. Divisions between the two groups began emerging last year when al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahri ordered ISIS to withdraw from Syria in order for the rebellion to be led by their official affiliate, the Nusra Front. Meanwhile, the Syrian government yesterday missed another deadline in its chemical weapon destruction plan. According to a timetable issued by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, Syria was supposed to have given up its entire chemical stockpile by February 5. Even though the Syrian government says it will still meet the final deadline of June 30, U.S. officials claim Syria had only removed 4 percent of its most toxic chemicals thus far. Iran. On Monday, the United States confirmed that Iran received its first $550 million installment of assets resulting from the sanctions relief agreed to in the November interim deal. According to Iran’s official IRNA news agency, the funds went into an Iranian Central Bank account in Switzerland. In the interim deal, six major powers agreed to grant Iran access to $4.2 billion in its oil revenues frozen abroad in exchange for nuclear disengagement. Also on Monday, the Iranian government began handing out food packages for millions of Iranians. While meant to ease the pressure on Iranian citizens, the poor implementation of the food distribution program—at least three people died while waiting in the cold to receive handouts—led some Iranian parliamentarians to criticize Iranian president Rouhani.  U.S. Foreign Policy Syria. Senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham told reporters that U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry had suggested to a bipartisan congressional delegation that President Obama needs a new, more assertive Syria policy. The conversation reportedly took place on Sunday in Munich, one day after Kerry joined Defense Secretary Hagel to give an uncompromising defense of the administration’s foreign policy. Meanwhile, U.S. officials said the Department of State’s Syria point man, Ambassador Robert Ford, plans to retire from his post by the end of the month. A longtime Middle East expert, Ford was instrumental in efforts to bring together different factions of the fragmented Syrian opposition in order for them to enter negotiations in Geneva. Ford was reportedly tapped by the Obama Administration to become the next U.S. ambassador to Egypt, but the appointment was rejected by the Cairo government. Saudi Arabia. The White House announced that President Obama will travel to Saudi Arabia in March. The visit will be the first to the kingdom since popular uprisings across the Middle East began in 2011. “Saudi Arabia is a close partner of the United States, and we have a bilateral relationship that is broad and deep and covers a range of areas,” White House press secretary Jay Carney said Monday. The visit appears designed to patch up differences between Washington and Riyadh that have spilled over into the public over the United States’ handling of Syria’s civil war. Israel-Palestine. Israeli politicians continued to criticize Secretary of State Kerry this week, accusing him of manipulating the threat of an economic boycott against Israel to pressure the government into peace concessions. U.S. State Department spokesperson Jen Psaki rebuked the criticisms, emphasizing Kerry’s demonstration of “staunch opposition to boycotts.” Kerry yesterday also brushed off the criticisms, telling CNN that, “I’ve been, quote, ’attacked’ before by people using real bullets, not words. And I am not going to be intimidated.” Israel’s chief peace negotiator, Justice Minister Tzipi Livni, rebuked fellow government ministers over their criticisms of Secretary Kerry. While We Are Looking Elsewhere Saudi Arabia. King Abdullah issued a royal decree on Monday punishing citizens who fight in conflicts outside Saudi Arabia. Regional civil wars such as Syria’s have been attracting a large flow of Saudi fighters, worrying the monarchy that the fighters could return radicalized and threaten their own government. The royal decree comes just one day after the implementation of a bold counterterrorism law that criminalizes virtually any criticism of the government. Algeria. The head of Algeria’s ruling party, Amar Saidani, called on powerful intelligence chief General Mohamed “Tewfiq” Mediene to resign in an interview published on Monday. Saidani blamed Mediene for failures of the DRS military intelligence agency, and declared that, “The presence of internal security in every institution gives the impression that power in Algeria is not in civilian hands.” Meanwhile, long-time Algerian president Abd el-Aziz Bouteflika was backed by a large majority of political forces for the upcoming presidential elections. The elections are currently scheduled for April 17. Yemen. A ceasefire was restored today between Sunni tribesmen and northern Houthi rebels after fighting broke out just north of Sana’a last night. The fledgling truce was agreed to on Tuesday to end fighting that had killed nearly 150 people in the past week. Egypt. A video of the arrest of two Al Jazeera journalists was leaked on Monday in Egypt and broadcasted on a pro-government private channel. The two journalists, Egyptian-Canadian television producer Mohamed Fahmy and Australian correspondent Peter Greste, have been detained since their arrest on December 29 and were among twenty Al Jazeera journalists charged with broadcasting false reports to help the Muslim Brotherhood. Turkey. The Israeli government offered Turkey $20 million on Monday in compensation to the families of those killed or wounded during the 2010 raid on the Gaza-bound flotilla. Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu apologized over a phone call last March. Iraq. Seven car bombs exploded across Baghdad today, killing at least thirteen people in the latest of a series of explosions that have wracked the Iraqi capital. Yesterday, a wave of bombings included blasts in the city’s “Green Zone” and a busy square in the city center. While no group has claimed responsibility for the killings, the bombings followed a long series of attacks blamed by the government on the Islamic State of Iraq and the Syria (ISIS). Israel-Palestine. Abbas proposed that a NATO deployment could play a role in maintaining security as part of a peace agreement with Israel. “The third party can stay,” Abbas said. “They can stay to reassure the Israelis, and to protect us.” Meanwhile, Jerusalem municipality’s planning committee gave final approval for 558 apartments in East Jerusalem yesterday.

Significant Developments Syria. The first ever talks between the Syrian opposition and the Assad regime continue in Switzerland, with the Syrian government hinting yesterday it may be willing to accede to the 2012 Geneva I communique as a road map for the future. However, the Damascus government and the Syrian opposition fundamentally disagree over how to implement the document and its call for a political transition in Syria. Today, representatives from the Syrian government and opposition exchanged bitter accusations of responsibility for Syria’s violence. UN-Arab League envoy Lakhdar Brahimi expressed “some satisfaction” that the two sides have not walked out, reflecting the low expectations for the talks’ initial round. This first phase of direct face-to-face talks that began last Friday is set to finish tomorrow and will be followed by a weeklong break. Meanwhile, Human Rights Watch released a new report today that documents the Syrian government’s razing of entire neighborhoods in Damascus and Hama. Ole Solvang, an emergencies researcher at Human Rights Watch, described the demolitions as “wiping entire neighborhoods off the map.” Egypt. Defense Minister Abdel Fatah al-Sisi was endorsed by Egypt’s top military commanders for a potential presidential bid on Monday. The official endorsement by Egypt’s Supreme Council of the Armed Forces came a few hours after interim president Adly Mansour promoted al-Sisi to the position of field marshal, the highest rank in the Egyptian Army. The generals also declared that Sisi’s broad public backing has made his candidacy an “obligation.” Meanwhile, Former president Morsi on Tuesday made his second appearance since his arrest following the July 3 military takeover in Egypt. Morsi sat locked in a soundproof glass cage that impeded him from speaking during most of the day’s proceedings. The Cairo Criminal Court charged twenty Al Jazeera reporters yesterday of joining or aiding a terrorist group. A statement released by prosecutors claimed that the journalists had released images to assist the Muslim Brotherhood in influencing international opinion. State Department spokesperson Jen Psaki said that, “The government’s targeting of journalists and others on spurious claims is wrong and demonstrates an egregious disregard for the protection of basic rights and freedoms.” Iran. UN nuclear inspectors reportedly visited an Iranian uranium mine yesterday, marking the first International Atomic Energy Agency visit to an Iranian uranium facility in nearly a decade. Allowing IAEA access to Gchine represents one of six steps that Iran agreed to under the November 11 cooperation agreement with the agency. President Obama argued against new Iran sanctions in his State of the Union speech on Tuesday, saying that, “For the sake of our national security, we must give diplomacy a chance to succeed.” He acknowledged that sanctions had made a deal with Iran possible, but warned Congress that he would veto any new sanctions bill. U.S. Foreign Policy Syria. Reuters reported on Tuesday that the United States is supplying “light arms” to moderate Syrian rebels and that Congress has approved funding for further deliveries through September 30, the end of the fiscal year. Lawmakers reportedly approved the funding in classified sections of defense funding legislation. The unclassified defense appropriations bill was passed in late December, but it is unclear when the closed door vote on supplying arms occurred. Israel-Palestine. Saeb Erekat, the chief negotiator for the Palestinian Authority, visited Washington on Tuesday to discuss the ongoing peace negotiations. Secretary of State John Kerry is expected to present the parties with a draft framework agreement sometime in the next few weeks. Israeli negotiators—Justice Minister Tzipi Livni and Yitzhak Molcho—visited Washington last week to meet Kerry. Jordan. U.S. deputy secretary of state William Burns was received by King Abdullah on Wednesday when the two reportedly discussed regional developments and Arab-Israeli peace efforts. Speaking about the Syrian peace talks in Geneva at a press conference, Burns said that it is “the beginning of a long and difficult process aimed at political transition” and that “the key will remain the transition to a new leadership.” The White House announced yesterday that President Obama will meet King Abdullah on February 14 at the Annenberg Estate in Rancho Mirage, California. While We Are Looking Elsewhere Tunisia. A new technocratic government headed by interim prime minister Medhi Jomaa was sworn in yesterday, coming on the heels of the country’s official adoption of a new constitution on Monday. Earlier this week, Jomaa appealed to the international community, stating that “this sensitive phase of democratic transition…will need some economic reforms and sources of financing.”  The IMF announced today the release of a $500 million loan that had been delayed for months due to political instability. Iraq. Six suicide bombers attacked the Iraqi transportation ministry in Baghdad today, killing at least twenty-four people. While no group has claimed responsibility, Iraqi security officials blamed the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), which is an al-Qaeda linked group that seized control of Fallujah earlier this month. Yemen.  Following the conclusion ceremony of reconciliation talks on Saturday, Yemeni president Abed Rabbou Mansour Hadi assigned a newly-formed committee on Monday with the task of exploring options to transform Yemen into a federation. The committee will explore dividing the country into two or six zones. The result will be written into a new constitution scheduled to be completed within a year. Libya. New fighting erupted in the city of Sebha on Tuesday between supporters of former ruler Muammar Qaddafi and government forces and former rebels. The clash was sparked by the arrival of government reinforcements deployed to dislodge the Qaddafi supporters from several positions in the urban area. Israel-Palestine. Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas said in an interview on Tuesday that he would accept a gradual three-year Israeli withdrawal from the occupied West Bank. Abbas was reportedly responding to Israeli defense minister Moshe Yaalon’s challenge on the effectiveness of the Palestinian leader’s security commitments. “I am saying that clearly: whoever proposes 10 or 15 years for a transition period does not want to withdraw,” Abbas stated. “We say that a transitional period not exceed three years, during which Israel can withdraw gradually.” The interview was broadcast at the Institute for National Security Studies conference in Tel Aviv. Meanwhile, the Shin Bet and Israeli police have arrested sixteen East Jerusalem residents on suspicion of funding Hamas activity in the city. Authorities suspect that Hamas has been funding an educational program in Jerusalem’s Haram al-Sharif/Temple Mount area, paying Muslims to stay in the area in order to increase the Islamic presence there.