Middle East Matters

Former prime minister Ariel Sharon began every meeting I ever attended with U.S. officials with a greeting that always made me chuckle: “You are mostly welcome.” That welcome revealed his flawed English and perfectly reflected his ambivalence and apprehension about American efforts: He recognized that the United States was the best friend Israel had ever known. But he was ever suspicious that Washington might pressure him into something he did not want to do. Sharon could wipe the floor with U.S. diplomats he didn’t want to hear from, blocking them from enunciating a single talking point by subjecting them to a lengthy discourse on centuries of Jewish suffering. But I also witnessed a painfully shy man largely silent through lunch with the U.S. president, allowing his longstanding and deeply trusted aide, Dov Weissglas, carry the discussion with hilarious anecdotes. One of the most important lessons that Sharon applied to the battlefield and to politics was that Israel had to seize the initiative, not simply react to events. He, more than any, appreciated the country’s basic security dilemma: while possessing a strong and highly motivated army, Israel is dwarfed in size and numbers by an inhospitable region. For him, taking the initiative was the enduring legacy of Jewish history, of his military experience, and of his political success. With the country’s narrow waist of just fifteen kilometers and lack of territorial depth, Sharon embodied the doctrine of taking the offensive and rapidly moving the battle deep into enemy territory. This notion informed Sharon’s battlefield tactics in the 1948 war, his leadership of the infamous Unit 101, his inventive battlefield leadership in Sinai during the 1956 and 1967 wars, and the controversial invasion of Lebanon to eradicate the PLO from Beirut in 1982. The means were sometimes brutal and bloody. But Sharon applied the lesson of seizing the initiative to the political arena as well. As prime minister, Sharon unilaterally withdrew Israeli troops and some eight thousand settlers from the Gaza Strip in 2005. The move was bold and wrenching for the country. Sharon was forced to leave the Likud and form a new party to do it. But after seeing negotiations with the Palestinians fall apart, Sharon had become convinced that the United States or the international community would present Israel with peace plans he did not like. So he upended everything by launching his Gaza initiative, reversing his longstanding commitment to Israel’s presence there when he calculated that the costs of occupation far outweighed the benefits. I suspect that were Sharon with us today, he would come up with an imaginative initiative to drive efforts to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and counter the danger to his country posed by efforts to isolate or delegitimize Israel in various international fora and organizations. Sharon would likely calculate that for Israel to have maximum influence internationally to thwart Iran’s nuclear ambitions, it would require a daring new approach that had been fully coordinated in advance with the United States. Moreover, as his former advisers readily concede today, Sharon would recognize that the Palestinian Authority is successfully doing the one thing he always wanted them to do: taking real responsibility for fighting terrorism and providing security for themselves, and by extension Israel. We can never know how Sharon would have led Israel in today’s tumultuous Middle East. But we can be fairly certain that he would have not been purely reactive, given his view that the best defense was a strong offense. Somehow, it is likely he would have initiated a bold approach, most likely one that seems inconceivable to the rest of us today.

Significant Developments Syria. Representatives from various Syrian opposition groups-- including some Islamist factions-- met in Cordoba, Spain today to try to forge common ground before the scheduled peace talks with the Assad regime on January 22 in Switzerland. Secretary of State John Kerry floated the idea earlier this week that Iran could play a role from the sidelines, saying that, “Can their mission that is already in Geneva...be there in order to help the process? It may be that there are ways that could happen.” Meanwhile, the first shipment of chemical weapons materials were shipped out of Latakia on Tuesday, a week after the initial December 31 deadline. Bassam Sabbagh, Syria’s representative to the OPCW, alleged yesterday that rebels had carried out two unsuccessful attacks again chemical weapons depots. Also yesterday, Russia blocked a British-drafted Security Council statement that would have expressed outrage over the Assad regime’s brutal airstrikes in Aleppo that have reportedly killed more than 700 people since December 15. The UN’s human rights office announced on Tuesday that it has stopped updating the death toll from Syria’s civil war because of the inability to verify information. The last official count was of at least 100,000 people killed in July. Egypt. Egyptian courts today convicted 113 supporters of ousted president Morsi for destroying property and violating the recently passed protest law. Morsi’s own trial was postponed yesterday by Egyptian authorities who claimed inclement weather prevented Morsi’s transportation from Alexandria to Cairo. The new trial date is February 1. Meanwhile, Egypt’s foreign ministry summoned the Iranian charge d’affaires on Monday to protest earlier comments by an Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson expressing Iran’s concern about the rise in violence in Egypt. At least seventeen people were killed last Friday when supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood clashed with police. U.S. Foreign Policy Israel-Palestine. U.S. ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro told Israel Radio on Tuesday that Secretary of State Kerry would likely present a draft framework for continued negotiations in a few weeks or a month. Shapiro’s comments came a day after Kerry finished his tenth trip to Israel and the West Bank in a quest for a comprehensive peace agreement. Israeli prime minister Netanyahu reportedly refused Kerry’s request to agree to a formula to allow some Palestinian refugees to return. Kerry is slated to return to the Middle East next week, but a stop in Israel, earlier hinted at by U.S. officials, was not included on the announced travel itinerary. Saudi Arabian and Jordan.  In stops in Amman and Riyadh, Secretary of State Kerry reportedly asked the kings of Jordan and Saudi Arabia to support Israel’s demand that Palestinians recognize Israel as the nation-state of the Jewish people, a senior Israeli official said Tuesday. Kerry is reportedly exploring urging the Arab Peace Initiative committee to adopt adding language recognizing Israel as a Jewish State when he meets with API representatives next week in Paris. Libya. According to the New York Times, the State Department is preparing to officially apply the terrorist designation to two Libyan militant organizations and one individual in connection to the attack on the American diplomatic mission in Benghazi. The designations would apply to Ansar al-Sharia of Benghazi, Ansar al-Sharia of Derna and to Ahmed Abu Khattala, who is thought to have played a key role in the attack. The designation would allow U.S. officials to freeze financial assets. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Tunisia. Interim prime minister Ali Larayedh resigned today to make way for an independent caretaker government. Larayedh’s resignation is part of an agreement that the ruling Islamist Ennahda made with the opposition to hand over power after a new constitution had been written and an electoral commission had been set up to oversee elections. An independent authority was established yesterday to oversee new elections and the new constitution is on track to be approved by the January 14 deadline. Industry Minister Mehdi Jomaa will replace Larayedh and is expected to present his new cabinet next week. Iran. Iran and the EU held talks in Geneva today about implementing the November interim nuclear agreement. U.S. nuclear negotiator Wendy Sherman was also in Geneva for the talks. However, Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said just hours before that the talks showed the “enmity of America against Iran, Iranians, Islam and Muslims.” Libya. Prime Minister Ali Zeidan announced yesterday that he will reshuffle his cabinet in the next two weeks and bring in technocrats and independents. Members of the General National Congress tried to pass a no confidence vote on Tuesday, but discussions have been pushed back to next week.  Meanwhile, Zeidan also warned that Libya may sink oil tankers trying to enter eastern ports seized by armed rebels after the Libyan navy fired shots over the weekend to ward off a tanker headed toward the rebel-held ports. The Cyrenaica regional authority, which is seeking more autonomy in eastern Libya, took over three oil ports six months ago. Jordan. Prince Zeid Ra’ad Zeid al-Hussein, the Jordanian ambassador to the United Nations, called on UNSC members to visit Syrian refugee camps in Jordan on Monday in his first address to the press since Jordan assumed the rotating presidency of the UNSC. Prince Hussein also noted that, “there should not be a use of veto in certain situations where there is genocide, crimes against humanity, or war crimes." Iraq. Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki predicted victory in a televised address yesterday as the Iraqi army prepared to launch a major offensive against al-Qaeda militants who hold parts of Fallujah. Maliki acknowledged international support, saying that it is “giving us the confidence that we are moving on the right course.” Last week, members of the al-Qaeda-linked Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), which is also battling both Assad’s regime and more moderate rebels in Syria, overran parts of Fallujah and another city in Anbar province. Kuwait. Prime Minister Sheikh Jaber Al-Mubarak Al-Sabah swore in seven new cabinet ministers on Tuesday, including a new oil minister. The cabinet reshuffle follows an order from Kuwaiti emir Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah. It is the sixth cabinet since Prime Minister Sheikh Jaber Al-Mubarak Al-Sabah was appointed in November 2011. Gaza-West Bank. The Hamas government in Gaza released seven imprisoned members of Fatah yesterday in an effort to promote reconciliation. On Monday, Hamas prime minister Ismail Haniyeh announced that Fatah members could return to Gaza “without any preconditions,” but Ahmad Assad, a Fatah spokesman, dismissed the announcement as “superficial.” Bahrain. The Bahraini government suspended reconciliation talks with the Shiite opposition yesterday. The talks began last February, but five major opposition groups stopped attending meetings in September in protest of the arrest of Khalil al-Marzouq, a prominent member of main opposition group al-Wefaq.

Significant Developments Syria. UN investigators reported today that the Assad regime has been conducting extensive and systemic abductions that constitute a war crime and “widespread campaign of terror against the civilian population.” Amnesty International released a separate report alleging widespread torture and executions and documenting secret prisons operated by the Islamic State of Iraq in the Levant (ISIL) throughout rebel-held areas of Syria. A large-scale regime air offensive against the Aleppo area entered its fifth day today with raids against outlying villages. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that makeshift barrel bombs filled with TNT were dropped from helicopters on the city, and had killed as many as one hundred and sixty-one people between Sunday and Wednesday. Meanwhile, Russian and Chinese officials announced today the deployment of ships and material intended to be used in the transport, protection, and destruction of Syria’s chemical weapons. On Tuesday, the executive council of the OPCW approved an official plan for the destruction of Syria’s chemical stockpiles, though it acknowledged that “technical factors” could cause delays in the timeline. Kurdish officials also announced today their desire for a separate Kurdish delegation to January 22 peace talks now slated for Montreux, Switzerland, arguing that the Assad regime and the rebels hold similar views with regards to Syria’s Kurdish population. Iran. Talks between Iran and the P5+1 representatives resumed today in Geneva after they were cut short last week. This round of talks between both nuclear and sanctions experts aims to translate the November interim accord into an actionable plan. The Iranian deputy foreign minister Abbas Araqachi said that while the discussions are slated to last two days, they could extend into next week. French foreign minister Laurent Fabius expressed little confidence in the prospects of success, telling the Wall Street Journal yesterday, “It is unclear if the Iranians will accept to definitively abandon any capacity of getting a weapon or only agree to interrupt the nuclear program.” Egypt. An Egyptian court acquitted former prime minister Ahmed Shafiq along with Gamal and Alaa Mubarak of corruption charges today, though the Mubarak brothers still face the same charges in additional cases. On Wednesday, ousted president Mohammed Morsi was charged with conspiring with Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas and of leaking state secrets to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. Meanwhile, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee passed the “Egypt Assistance Reform Act of 2013” yesterday by a vote of sixteen to one. The act would ease tightened controls on aid to Egypt, which was significantly reduced after the July 3 coup and the subsequent military crackdown. Assistance will now be conditional to Egypt’s adherence to its peace treaty with Israel, counter-terrorism cooperation, and undertaking steps towards political  reform. The law provides the president authority to waive restrictions for 180 days should the administration determine that doing so is in the vital national interest of the United States. U.S. Foreign Policy Syria. U.S. ambassador to Syria Robert Ford said yesterday that members of the Islamic Front had declined an invitation to meet with U.S. officials. The Assad regime called Washington’s diplomatic overture to the group, which it considers a terrorist organization, “reprehensible.” The Islamic Front is an organization of six major Islamist rebel groups and was responsible for last week’s seizure of a weapons warehouse belonging to the opposition’s Supreme Military Council. The seizure of the warehouse prompted the United States to halt nonlethal aid to Syrian rebels. Iran Sanctions. Senators Robert Menendez and Mark Kirk introduced a bipartisan bill today that would increase sanctions on Iran should current negotiations fail or if Iran violates the interim agreement. The bill has twenty-six sponsors, thirteen Democrats and thirteen Republicans. The Obama administration had lobbied the Congress not to propose new sanctions lest they threaten last month’s agreement with Iran. However, supporters of the legislation claim that it will strengthen the United States’ negotiating leverage. Menendez defended the bill, saying that, “current sanctions brought Iran to the negotiating table and a credible threat of future sanctions will require Iran to cooperate and act in good faith at the negotiating table.” The Senate is expected to vote on the bill in January at the earliest. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Turkey. Five high-ranking Istanbul police department officials were dismissed yesterday following controversy over the widening anti-corruption crack-down throughout Turkey. Several prominent businessmen and the sons of three cabinet ministers were also recently detained. The investigation, which was launched by the chief prosecutor’s office in Istanbul, discovered $4.5 million in shoe boxes in the home of the chief executive of the state-run Halkbank. The raids are believed to be encouraged by powerful members of the Gulen Movement that is working against Erdogan in the run-up to elections next year. Lebanon. Lebanese and Israeli military officials met on Monday in an effort to reduce tensions along Lebanon’s southern border following several cross border exchanges of gunfire. Two Lebanese soldiers were shot early on Monday by the Israeli army one day after a Lebanese sniper killed an Israeli soldier. Meanwhile, a suicide bomber detonated a car bomb at a Hezbollah post in Labweh on Tuesday where Hezbollah fighters have been transiting to and from Syria where in support of the Assad regime. Israel-Palestine. The Israeli military announced today that it had shot and killed a member of the Palestinian security forces, identified as Saleh Yassin during a raid in the West Bank. Yassin was wanted in connection to several recent shooting incidents with the Israeli military and reportedly fired at the Israeli soldiers. Israeli troops also shot and killed a suspected member of Islamic Jihad yesterday in the Jenin refugee camp when shooting began during a raid. Meanwhile on Wednesday, Prime Minister Netanyahu said that Israelis “will not stop, even for a moment, building our country and becoming stronger, and developing...the settlement enterprise” in remarks to the Likud party. Iraq. Attacks on Shiite pilgrims killed at least thirty-four people today on the road to Karbala, south of Baghdad. An attack on Wednesday killed five people, though it would likely have been more devastating had a police officer not embraced the bomber, shielding others from the explosion. A total of four attacks near Baghdad on Monday and Tuesday killed thirty-two pilgrims. Estimates by the AFP place the total number of those killed in Iraq at 6,550 this year alone. This Week in History This week marks the sixty-seventh anniversary of the collapse of the Kurdish Republic of Mahabad in northern Iran. While occupying parts of Iran during the second World War, the Soviet Union had built close ties with sympathetic leaders in northern Iran. Both the Azeris and Kurds held long-standing disputes with the Tehran government, and broke away in 1946 with Soviet support and encouragement. The Republic of Mahabad was established on January 22, 1946 by a number of prominent Kurdish tribal leaders, including Mullah Mostafa Barzani, father of Massoud Barzani, the current president of Kurdish northern Iraq.  The republic allowed the Kurds to exercise autonomy and to speak and teach their own language. However, Iranian troops entered Mahabad on December 17, 1946 trying and convicting the Kurdish leadership of treason. They were hanged in Mahabad’s main square in March of 1947.