Middle East Matters

The terrible news today confirming the death of three Israeli Yeshiva students abducted eighteen days ago in the West Bank forces Israeli and Palestinian leaders to confront some very difficult decisions. The discovery of the students’ bodies and the confirmation of their killing will doubtless lead to a strong Israeli military response. Even dovish President Shimon Peres declared that Israel’s retribution would be harsh. But just what that means will be shaped to some extent by the way Palestinian leaders react to today’s news. Visiting Israel and the West Bank last week, I heard Israeli and Palestinians of all stripes largely anticipate a bad ending to the kidnapping saga. Yet nobody could clearly envisage what would happen next. What is clear now is that action is imminent. At the onset of the emergency Israeli cabinet meeting taking place as of this writing, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared: “Hamas is responsible and Hamas will pay" for the abduction and killing of the three Israeli teenagers in the West Bank. Israel’s Actions So Far. After Israel discovered that the three students had been abducted June 12, Netanyahu launched the largest IDF military operation in the West Bank in over a decade. Not since then-IDF chief of staff Boogie Ya’alon—now defense minister—undertook the military crackdown that brought about an end to the second intifada has Israel acted with such force in the areas controlled by the Palestinian Authority. These recent IDF actions resulted in the incarceration of over 400 Hamas suspects, the capture of Hamas’s weapons caches, and ultimately the discovery today of the three dead Israeli students. But Israel decided last week to reel in these operations somewhat, even before the students were discovered, after the death of some half-dozen Palestinian civilians started to produce serious popular West Bank outrage. Palestinian protesters in Ramallah, among other West Bank locations, turned their ire not at the Israelis, but at their own Palestinian security forces, who they accused of collaborating with Israel’s security services. That Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas had denounced the kidnapping during a visit to Saudi Arabia, while Netanyahu delayed in acknowledging Abbas’s words and refusing to empathize with the loss of Palestinian lives, led PA officials to feel extremely vulnerable politically. Not only did they fear that Netanyahu was out to free the students, but they worried that Israel was trying to punish Abbas for having formed a unity agreement with Hamas last month. Israeli officials recognized the precariousness of the Palestinian Authority’s position and concluded that its survival was an Israeli interest. Now, with the death of the kidnapped students, Israeli must make some difficult choices. To take further military action in the West Bank could put further strain on the Palestinian Authority and its security forces who Israeli officials quietly acknowledge have been extremely cooperative to date. Having blamed Hamas for the kidnapping, Israel’s more logical target would be Hamas’s leadership in Gaza. Already, the Israeli-Gazan front has been heating up over the past few weeks, with over a dozen Hamas solvos launched into Israel earlier today alone. Yet a serious ground operation in Gaza would be politically risky and militarily dangerous for Israeli forces. Significant air operations are more likely. But they could lead Hamas to abrogate its periodically violated truce with Israel and unleash rockets that could target Israel’s major population centers. Suspending the Unity Agreement? Abbas now faces widespread calls from Israel and abroad to abrogate the unity pact his Fatah party reached with Hamas last April. That agreement led to the formation of a technocratic government that was widely recognized internationally, including by the United States. Yet with today’s news, even Israeli leaders on the left are calling on Abbas to disassociate itself from Hamas and the unity agreement. Such a move would put Abbas firmly on Israel’s side, and could help salve badly strained Israeli-Palestinian relations. Israel would have to recognize the political benefits of such a move, and may be convinced to temper its military actions so as not strain Abbas’s standing before his people. For Abbas to abrogate the understanding with Hamas would be justified, courageous, and politically difficult. Fatah-Hamas unity is widely popular with the Palestinians across the political spectrum, particularly as it is seen as the only serious means for reuniting the West Bank and Gaza politically and economically. To break the agreement now would push such reunification further away. Moreover, for Abbas to dissolve the unity government would render unlikely the raison d’etre for the accord: the holding of Palestinian national and legislative elections. Such elections provided Abbas the prospect of renewed legitimacy after nearly a decade without functioning Palestinian political institutions or electoral politics. The end of the unity agreement and new elections also robs the 79-year old Abbas of a potential legacy item and exit strategy in the wake of Secretary of State John Kerry’s failed peace efforts. Hamas’s Response. The only other party that could possibly stave off an intensive Israeli response right now is Hamas itself, which has never claimed responsibility for the kidnapping. Hamas’s public position so far has been vague and ambiguous, despite the strong suggestions by Israel and the United States that the terrorist group was responsible for the kidnapping. Initially, Hamas praised the kidnappings and praised the “heroes” who carried them out. Over time, however, Hamas has rejected the charges that it had directed the operation from Gaza. Following the discovery of the dead students, Hamas spokesman Sami Abu Zuhri accused Israel of blaming Hamas to prepare the way for military action. Only a clear and firm Hamas condemnation of the kidnapping and deaths could serve to stave off Israel’s ire and protect the unity agreement with Fatah from further Israeli and international opprobrium. Such a Hamas move is highly unlikely however. Israel, the PA, and Hamas are now at a critical juncture. Strong Israeli military operations against Hamas, which it deems responsible for the deaths of the three students, now seems inevitable. Yet the way in which Israel proceeds will no doubt be shaped by actions of other players, particularly Palestinian president Abbas.

Significant Developments Iraq. State television network Iraqiya announced today that the Iraqi parliament will convene Monday to form a new government. Meanwhile, prominent Shia religious leader Moqtada al-Sadr called for an inclusive emergency unity government that would appeal to the demands of marginalized moderate Sunni citizens. Yesterday, prime minister Nouri al-Maliki rejected international calls to form a unity government, which he called a “coup” against the constitution. Fighting escalated this week as Syrian warplanes conducted airstrikes on Monday and Tuesday against rebels from the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIL). It was unclear whether these strikes were in Iraq or on the Syrian side of the border. At least 50 people were killed in the attacks. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Sunday that the U.S. should not intervene in Iraq, though Maliki has asked for Western support in fighting the rebels. The New York Times reported yesterday that Iran has been secretly sending surveillance drones and military equipment into Iraq. Meanwhile, Iraqi officials reported yesterday that ISIL rebels are advancing on the Haditha Dam, the second largest in Iraq, raising fears of possible floods. Egypt. An Egyptian court Monday sentenced three Al Jazeera journalists to jail for seven to ten years on charges of spreading false news and supporting the Muslim Brotherhood. The sentence was announced on the heels of Secretary of State John Kerry’s visit to Cairo where he met with President Abdelfattah el-Sisi to discuss repairing bilateral relations and promised a renewal of $650 million in aid that had been withheld after the coup last July. Kerry urged the Egyptian leader to uphold human rights. Following the court’s verdict, Sisi announced during a televised speech at a military graduation that he would not intervene in the case, citing the need for Egyptian authorities to respect the independence of the judiciary, “even if others do not understand this." White House spokesman Josh Earnest called the verdict "a blow to democratic progress in Egypt." Sisi visited Algeria yesterday on his first foreign visit since presidential elections earlier this month. Sisi called for Egyptian coordination with Algeria in fighting terrorism. His call came as explosions at four Cairo metro stations and a courthouse, injuring eight people. Sisi also pledged this week that he would give up half of his salary and property and encouraged others to begin making similar sacrifices to usher in a period of austerity Israel-Palestine. Israel today announced the identities of two main suspects, both Hamas members, in the kidnapping of three Yeshiva students two weeks ago in Hebron. Earlier this week, the IDF conducted its most significant military operation in the West Bank in over a decade earlier as it searched for the teenagers, arresting over 400 Palestinians. On Monday, Palestinian protesters in Ramallah threw rocks at Palestinian Authority security forces, accusing them of collaboration with Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called upon Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas to abrogate the unity agreement with Hamas from earlier this month forming a technocratic government. Meanwhile, all seventy-five hunger-striking Palestinian detainees agreed to suspend their strike yesterday, ending a protest that lasted over two months against Israel’s administrative detention policy. The hunger strikers received commitments that they will not be punished for their participation in the protest, and that the discussion over Israel’s policy will continue. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu praised his government for ending the strike and praised deterrence methods, including the forced-feeding of prisoners that will be taken up for a vote in the Knesset next week. U.S. Foreign Policy Following his stop in Cairo on Sunday, Secretary of State John Kerry visited Jordan and Iraq, where he met Iraqi prime minister Nouri al-Maliki. Kerry promised the Iraqi leader sustained U.S. support while urging the prime minister to push for the formation of an inclusive government. U.S. officials are privately reportedly seeking an alternative to Maliki. Kerry said the insurgency by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria is not only an “existential threat” to Iraq, but to the entire region. Kerry also visited Iraqi Kurdistan, where he met Masoud Barzani, President of Iraq’s Kurdish region. The State Department announced yesterday that Kerry will return to the region on Friday to meet Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah to discuss the Iraq crisis. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Lebanon. A suicide bomber killed himself in a botched attempt to blow up a Beirut hotel yesterday, the third such attack in Lebanon this week. A bombing Monday night near a checkpoint and café led to the death of the assailant and a security officer and injured 20 others who were watching a World Cup match. The first in this string of attacks was in eastern Lebanon last Friday, when a suicide bomber used a car bomb to kill an officer and wounded several others. While not claiming responsibility for the attacks, Sirajuddin Zurayqat, a spokesman for the Abdullah Azzam Brigades, an Al Qaeda-linked group, said that such attacks would continue as long as Hezbollah continues to take part in the Syrian civil war. Libya. Prominent human rights activist and lawyer Salwa Bugaighis was assassinated in her Benghazi home yesterday, casting a shadow over Libya’s parliamentary election proceedings. After weeks of the most serious violence in their country since the 2011 uprising, few Libyans headed to the polls to elect the membership of a 200-seat House of Representatives to replace the current interim parliament elected in July 2012. This is the third legislative election to take place in Libya since the end of the uprising in 2011. Though Khalifa Hiftar, the renegade general who has been conducting an offensive to purge the country of Islamist militias, imposed a 24-hour ceasefire, there were reports of several attacks on security officials and their headquarters. Yemen. Al Qaeda conducted three attacks in southern Yemen today following weeks of fighting between the military and Houthi rebels in the north. Al Qaeda fighters attacked an airport in the southern province of Sayoun, killing at least 15 people, while a suicide bomber drove a car filled with explosives into military barracks, killing nine civilians nearby. Militants also attacked the main post office in the province, killing six soldiers and wounding several others. Yesterday, a senior intelligence officer— who was investigating a link between Al Qaeda affiliated groups and the killing of foreigners in Yemen—was assassinated in front of his house in Sanaa. Jordan. Militant cleric Abu Qatada was acquitted today by a military court on charges of planning a terrorist attack on an American school in Amman in the late 1990s. The ruling marked a reversal of a conviction 14 years ago in which Abu Qatada had been sentenced to death. The cleric will not be released, however, as he will continue to be held in connection with a case regarding a plot to bomb tourists at millennium celebrations in 2000. British Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg said today that Britain will not allow him back if he is freed; Qatada had been granted asylum and was living in the UK under house arrest prior to his deportation last year. Tunisia. The Tunisian Parliament yesterday approved dates for upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections submitted by the country’s election commission last week. Parliamentary elections will be held on October 26, and the first round of presidential elections will be on November 23. Bahrain. Nabeel Rajab, the prominent human rights activist and head of the Bahrain Centre for Human Rights, was released yesterday following his completion of a two-year jail sentence. Rajab, convicted for encouraging anti-government protests in 2011, is expected to continue his previous work. Syria. State media and activists announced Sunday a ceasefire agreement between the Syrian government and groups fighting in Yarmouk—the largest Palestinian refugee camp in Syria. If upheld, the agreement would help ease the suffering of 18,000 refugees in need of aid who have been under a government-imposed blockade since mid-2013.

Significant Developments Iraq. President Obama told reporters today that the United States will deploy up to 300 military advisors to Iraq to help the country’s security services "take the fight" to the militants from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). Obama reiterated his earlier pledge to not send combat troops to Iraq.  ISIL insurgents have captured several cities in northern Iraq and are holding on the outskirts of Baghdad. Obama called the current crisis "Maliki’s test," but would not speak to the Iraqi prime minister’s competence as a unifier capable of creating an “inclusive agenda.” The New York Times reported today that Iraqi government officials claimed to have the upper hand after two day’s of fighting for control of Iraq’s biggest oil refinery in the city of Baiji, 130 miles north of Baghdad. Eyewitnesses claim, however, that the militants’ flags continue to fly over the facility. Iran. Secretary of State John Kerry expressed a willingness to share information about the Iraqi insurgency with the Iranian government but not to work with Iran to abet the crisis. Deputy Secretary of State Bill Burns met with his Iranian counterpart briefly on Monday and reportedly discussed the Iraq crisis with Tehran’s envoys. Iranian officials reportedly told the Americans that Iran would only help stabilize Iraq if there is forward progress in P5+1 talks on Iran’s nuclear program. Those multilateral talks continued last week with Iran allegedly refusing to significantly cut the number of centrifuges it intends to keep to produce nuclear fuel, dampening hopes somewhat for a comprehensive accord next month. Meanwhile, the Iranian government has vowed to protect Shia sites in Iraq and to support those fighting ISIS, including Sunnis, President Rouhani wrote in a tweet published yesterday. Egypt. An Egyptian court sentenced Muslim Brotherhood chief Mohammad Badie and prominent leaders Safwat Hegazy and Mohamed El-Beltagi along with eleven others to death today on charges over violence that led to ten deaths last summer. The decision follows yesterday’s sentencing to death of twelve supporters of ousted President Mohamed Morsi on charges of killing a police general last September. Ending ten months of imprisonment without charge, Egypt’s prosecutor general ordered the release of Al-Jazeera journalist Abdullah el-Shamy, who has been on hunger strike for over four months, on Monday, citing health conditions. Shamy’s release brought hope to other Al-Jazeera staff members who await a verdict in their trial this upcoming Monday. These moves came as President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi swore in a cabinet of 34 ministers on Tuesday, 13 of whom are new. Changes included the removal of the Ministry of Information and the creation of a Ministry of Urban Development. Egypt regained its membership in the African Union on Tuesday, after almost a year-long freeze that began following the overthrow of President Morsi last July. U.S. Foreign Policy Libya.  In a secret nighttime raid Sunday night, United States military officials captured Ahmed Abu Khattala, the most prominent suspect wanted in the attack on the U.S. compounds in Libya in 2012 which led to the deaths of four Americans, including Ambassador Chris Stevens. The Libyan government, which had not been notified of the raid prior to President Obama’s authorization of it, condemned the capture as a breach of sovereignty. Justice Minister Saleh al-Marghani said yesterday that Khatallah—who is currently expected to face trial in the United States—should be returned to Libya and tried there. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Israel. Senior Hamas official Salah Bardawi threatened the start of a third intifada today amid Israel’s crackdown on the group and its arrest of over 280 West Bank Palestinians—many of whom are affiliated with Hamas—in its search for three Yeshiva students kidnapped last Thursday near Hebron. Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas condemned the kidnapping on Monday, and also denounced the Israeli military’s response to it. Syria. Following his statements last week that the West is shifting its position on the conflict in Syria, President Bashar al-Assad said yesterday to a North Korean delegation in Damascus that terrorists will strike back against the countries that supported attacks in Syria and across the Middle East. “The West and countries that support extremism and terrorism in Syria and the region ... must realize that this growing threat will strike the whole world, especially the countries that support terrorism and that allowed it to grow." Meanwhile, fighting in Syria continued Monday when government helicopters dropped barrel bombs on opposition-held districts of Aleppo, reportedly killing at least 60 people. Turkey. A Turkish court announced life sentences yesterday for ninety-six–year-old former president Kenan Evren and eighty-nine–year-old former air force commander Tahsin Sahinkaya, the only surviving leaders of a 1980 military coup against the then civilian-led government. The officers are the first to be tried for a coup in Turkish history, following a 2010 referendum that overturned a constitutional clause that granted generals immunity. Meanwhile, Turkey’s two largest opposition parties—the Republican People’s Party and the Nationalist Action Party—announced on Monday their joint nomination of Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu, former Secretary-General of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, for the upcoming presidential elections in August. The decision came as a surprise to many, given the groups’ secular bent and Ihnsanoglu’s reputation as a conservative. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is expected to contest the elections as well. Yemen. Yemen’s government began conducting raids on Houthi rebels on Tuesday, following attacks on army members beginning Sunday, which ended an 11-day truce brokered by UN envoy Jamal Benomar. Although military officials did not provide an estimate, local sources told Agence France-Presse that dozens had been killed on both sides since the fighting began on Sunday. Yemeni troops were also busy in Sanaa over the weekend, as they surrounded and blocked access to a mosque controlled by former president Ali Abdullah Saleh in response to concerns that the ousted leader was plotting a coup. Lebanon. Lebanese parliament speaker Nabih Berri postponed the seventh parliamentary session to elect a new president yesterday after only 63 out of the 128 lawmakers attended the session. Opposition parties have boycotted all seven sessions since April, citing a lack of agreement on a consensus candidate. Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun, whose bloc has been boycotting parliamentary sessions, said in a television interview Monday that the current stalemate is incredibly dangerous and unconstitutional: “If we reach parliamentary polls [scheduled for November] before holding the presidential election, then the political situation in Lebanon will explode.” Tunisia. Tunisia’s election commission announced on Monday dates for upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections which it will submit to the parliament for approval. These elections will be the first since those that put the Islamist Ennahda party in power, though it handed power over to the current caretaker government in December 2013. If approved, parliamentary elections will be held on October 26, the first session of the presidential vote on November 23, and the second session on December 26.