Middle East Matters

Israel’s next government will assume the mantle of a strong and prosperous country. While facing a range of security challenges and tremendous regional turmoil, Israel today enjoys a preponderance of power over any likely regional threat or adversarial coalition. Its national economy is robust, and the country’s national cohesion remains exceptionally strong. Nonetheless, Israel’s overall strategic posture is vulnerable. Its national power and economic strength depend on less tangible factors, such as foreign relations, global alliances, and perceived international legitimacy. The Israeli government formed after the March 17 election will face four significant and interrelated challenges: First, relations between the Jewish state and the United States, its superpower ally and patron, are poor. Six years of bickering over Israeli settlement activities, Palestinian peace efforts, and the best way to contain if not counter Iran’s nuclear program have challenged bilateral relations. The next Israeli government will need to reestablish its traditional bipartisan base of support in Washington or risk becoming a party to domestic U.S. political squabbles. Second, Israel sees its largest regional threat coming from an Islamic Republic of Iran that openly calls for its eradication. While continuing to project influence regionally, Iran has advanced its decades-long effort to develop an indigenous nuclear enrichment program. With or without a P5+1 (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council—the United States, China, France, Russia, and UK—and Germany) agreement, Israel will see Iran and its regional allies as the greatest military challenge to its security. Israel’s next government will prioritize countering Iran’s nuclear and regional ambitions. Third, Israel faces challenges from two different and rival Palestinian leaderships. Israel has fought Hamas, Gaza’s de facto government, in three deadly yet inconclusive rounds of conflict in the last decade. Left isolated and unattended, Gaza could erupt, with violence spilling over into Israel. Meanwhile, the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), which administers the West Bank’s major population centers via the Palestinian Authority, has shifted away from cooperation with Israel toward diplomatic confrontation in international fora, including the United Nations and the International Criminal Court. While Israel has a preponderance of military power, the Palestinians are attempting to level the playing field on the international stage. The PLO also threatens to suspend on-the-ground security cooperation with the Israeli Defense Forces. It is unlikely to desist absent an Israeli government that seeks to make peace and end the occupation of the West Bank. Fourth and closely related, Israel faces a trend toward international delegitimization in parts of Europe and the United States, where Israel has traditionally enjoyed unrivaled support. The growing perception that Israel opposes Palestinian national aspirations accelerates Israel’s isolation. The next Israeli government will face a Boycott/Divestment/Sanctions movement that is gaining momentum and threatens to take root with a new generation of academics and politicians, among others. Only a credible move to establish two states in the land between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean could help thwart this. Israel has been largely reactive in the face of the upheavals sweeping the Middle East for the past five years. Yet the enormity of its most critical challenges may force the next Israeli government to adopt new initiatives and a more activist approach. For a comprehensive take on the upcoming Israeli election of which this posting is one part, check out CFR.org’s Expert Roundup by Benedetta Berti, Shlomo Brom, Natan Sachs, and Yossi Klein Halevi.

This article was originally published here on CNN.com on Tuesday, March 3, 2015. Despite the hype, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu still managed to deliver a speech that was both magisterial and audacious. Pulling few punches, Netanyahu went to Washington’s epicenter and told assembled lawmakers that the United States’ president, Barak Obama, is negotiating a terrible deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran. The speech is likely to have an impact in three important ways: First, Netanyahu just made the deal that the Obama administration is trying to conclude all the more difficult. The Israeli leader pointed to some of the emerging deal’s core problems: first, leaving much of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure in place, and second, sunset provisions that would remove remaining restrictions after a decade. In doing so, Netanyahu gave the Obama administration’s biggest domestic critics a huge bat with which to club the president and his team. More fundamentally, the Israeli leader was effective in portraying the Islamic Republic not as a potential partner, but as the source of the region’s greatest ills. Second, the sheer audaciousness of Netanyahu delivering a speech in the capital while Secretary of State John Kerry is negotiating with Iranian envoys in Switzerland is likely to render impossible any future modus vivendi between President Obama and the Israeli prime minister. For the past six years, Obama and Netanyahu have been locked into an unending cycle of clashes followed by temporary truces. Tuesday, Netanyahu seemingly confirmed the White House’s deepest suspicions that the Israeli leader has long been working to manipulate partisan American politics against the president. Continue reading on CNN.com