Middle East Matters

Significant Developments ISIS. Ashton Carter, wrapping up his first overseas trip as secretary of defense, met with top U.S. military and diplomatic officials in Kuwait on Monday to review the U.S.-led international coalition’s strategy against ISIS. Carter announced that the Obama administration had “the ingredients of the strategy” to defeat ISIS militarily in Iraq and Syria, but that further efforts were required to combat ISIS’ use of social media. Meanwhile, the Pentagon on Tuesday walked back its earlier CENTCOM announcement of a spring offensive to retake Mosul from ISIS after Iraqi officials reacted angrily to the disclosure. A senior CENTCOM official had briefed reporters on details of the offensive, including dates and the number of fighters likely to be involved. The White House also distanced itself from the announcement, with spokesperson Josh Earnest telling reporters that he was not aware of the briefing and that the offensive “[wouldn’t] begin until the Iraqi security forces are ready.” Israel. Opposition Labor Party head Isaac Herzog today called on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to cancel his planned Congressional address next Tuesday saying it would cause “strategic damage to Israel’s standing and to the relationship with the United States.” U.S. National Security Adviser Susan Rice last night strongly criticized the Israeli leader’s planned Congressional speech, calling it “destructive to the fabric of the [U.S.-Israeli] relationship” in an interview with Charlie Rose. Meanwhile, Senator Richard Durbin (D-Ill.) reported on Tuesday that Netanyahu had declined to attend a private meeting with Democratic senators, calling Netanyahu’s refusal “disappointing to those of us who have stood by Israel for decades.” However, Israeli officials said today that Netanyahu will meet with Democratic and Republican Senate leaders in a closed-door meeting. Turkey-Syria. Turkish military forces entered Syria for the first time since the start of the Syrian civil war last weekend to secure the remains of Suleyman Shah, grandfather of the founder of the Ottoman Empire and to evacuate the thirty-eight soldiers guarding his tomb. ISIS had threatened to destroy the tomb unless its guards lowered the Turkish flag adorning it. Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu announced that over five hundred troops, forty tanks, and over a hundred and fifty vehicles entered Syria through Kobani and successfully removed Shah’s remains and rescued the guards posted to the shrine who had been trapped by ISIS militants for several months. The Syrian government issued a statement on Sunday calling the operation a “flagrant aggression,” alleging that Turkey undertook the excursion without gaining permission from Damascus. Prime Minister Davutoglu told reporters on Sunday that he had notified the Syrian government, rebel leaders, and the coalition forces battling ISIS about the operation. U.S. Foreign Policy Qatar. Qatari emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani met with President Barack Obama on Tuesday, in his first ever visit to the White House. President Obama stressed the “strong security relationship” between the United States and Qatar, and said that Qatar was a “partner on a whole range of security initiatives, [including] in the [U.S.-led international] coalition to degrade and ultimately defeat [ISIS].” The leaders also discussed the situation in Syria, agreeing that the country could only be stabilized after securing the stepping down of President Bashar al-Assad. Iran. Secretary of State John Kerry testified on Tuesday before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and a subcommittee of the Senate Appropriations Committee to explain the State Department’s budget request. In hearings heavily focused on the ongoing negotiations with Iran, Kerry denied reports that the United States would accept a nuclear agreement that would constrain Iran’s ability to achieve break out capacity after ten years. He declined to offer further details on the talks. Kerry’s testimony came a day after he returned from the latest round of high-level talks in Geneva on Iran’s nuclear program. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Palestine. A U.S. District Court awarded over $ 218 million on Monday to ten U.S. families who were among the victims of six terrorist attacks perpetrated by Palestinian groups between 2002 and 2004. The jury found the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) and the Palestinian Authority (PA) liable for their role in knowingly supporting the attacks. The attacks killed thirty-three people and wounded over four hundred and fifty, including U.S. citizens. The final damages will amount to over $655 million under a special legal provision that provides for tripling the amount of damages awarded by the court. The PLO and PA announced they were “deeply disappointed” with the verdict, while Palestinian deputy information minister, Mahmoud Khalifa, vowed Tuesday to appeal the decision. Syria. ISIS militants have kidnapped over two hundred Assyrian Christians over the last three days after storming several villages in northeast Syria, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), a London-based watchdog. Thousands of Christians have resorted to fleeing the town of Tal Tamr in an effort to avoid abduction. ISIS has taken command of ten Assyrian villages around Tal Tamr that were previously under Kurdish militia control, and has also kidnapped militants fighting with the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) during an assault on Tal Tamr. Meanwhile, Human Rights Watch released a report on Tuesday documenting the Syrian regime’s use of barrel bombs on at least fifteen hundred sites in rebel-held areas since the Security Council specifically censured their use in February 2014. Barrel bombs are prohibited under international law as they indiscriminately injure civilians upon explosion. Meanwhile, the Syrian authorities have released a prominent Syrian dissident, Louay Hussein, on bail. Hussein, who is the head of the pro-democracy “Building the Syrian State” movement, is charged with “spreading false news” and “weakening national morale.” His next trial is scheduled for March 3. Lebanon. Lebanese military experts and analysts announced yesterday that ISIS and the Nusra Front, who are mostly located near the northeastern border with Syria, are planning a large-scale attack on Lebanon, most likely in the second half of March, once the weather improves. The Nusra Front’s main goal for the offensive is to secure new supply routes, while ISIS seeks to gain traction in a bid to set up an Islamic “emirate” in Lebanon. ISIS’ leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, first announced his plans to create such an “emirate” last year in Iraq. ISIS announced recently that the command for the emirate in Lebanon would be led by Khalaf al-Zeyabi Halous, a Syrian militant who played a key role in the ISIS offensive to capture Raqqa in Syria in 2013. Yemen. Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi withdrew his resignation from Yemen’s presidency on Monday after he escaped from a month-long house arrest at the hands of Houthi rebels. He has since relocated to the southern city of Aden, and is seeking the support of political parties and southern tribes to retake power from the Houthi rebels. According to a Hadi aide, Saudi Arabia has relocated its ambassador to Aden and promised unlimited political and logistical support to him. Houthi rebels issued an official statement on Tuesday, saying Hadi had “lost his legitimacy to act as president.” Egypt-GCC. President Abdel Fatah Al-Sisi on Monday applauded the support offered by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Bahrain, and stressed that efforts to cause friction between Egypt and the Gulf States would fail. The statement appeared to be a thinly veiled reference to the recent discord between Egypt and Qatar over Egypt’s airstrikes against ISIS factions in Libya last week in retaliation for ISIS beheading twenty-one Egyptian Copts near Benghazi. The situation also caused friction between the various members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) last Thursday, after the GCC publicly endorsed Qatar for announcing it had reservations about the Egyptian air strikes without the support of all members of the Council, prompting its secretary-general to issue a new statement in support of the strikes in Libya later that day. Egypt. A prominent Egyptian blogger and activist, Alaa Abd El Fattah, was sentenced to five years in prison and fined $13,000 on Monday by an Egyptian court. He was convicted for participating in an unauthorized demonstration against the use of military trials for civilians in November 2013. Two -dozen other defendants received more lenient sentences during the same trial. Meanwhile, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi authorized an anti-terrorism law on Tuesday, which authorizes officials to ban groups or individuals that are deemed to be a threat to national security, including people who disrupt public transportation. The law also gives officials the authority to freeze the groups’ assets. Tunisia. Tunisian officials announced on Tuesday that their security forces had arrested around one hundred suspected Islamist militants in Tunisia since the weekend, including some allegedly influenced by ISIS. At present, there are an estimated 3,000 Tunisians fighting in Syria.

Significant Developments Egypt. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi announced an agreement to jointly build Egypt’s first nuclear power plant on Tuesday during Putin’s first visit to Egypt in over ten years. State Department spokesperson Jen Psaki stated that, “[the United States] support[s] peaceful nuclear power programs as long as obligations under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, to which Egypt is a signatory… are fully met.” Meanwhile, an Egyptian court ordered the release of the two remaining Al Jazeera journalists in custody today. The announcement followed the publication this week of a previously undisclosed opinion by Egypt’s highest appeals court criticizing the journalists’ earlier conviction as baseless. Egyptian-born Canadian journalist Mohamed Fahmy was ordered to pay the equivalent of $33,000 as a condition for being released on bail, while Baher Mohamed, an Egyptian national, was released on bail on his own recognizance. ISIS. The White House confirmed on Tuesday the death of Kayla Mueller, an American aid worker who had been held hostage by ISIS. A spokesman for ISIS claimed that Jordanian airstrikes in Syria last week were responsible for her death, though officials in Washington and Amman said the cause of death was unclear. Jordan continued to ramp up its airstrikes against ISIS in retaliation for the killing of its pilot, Moaz al-Kasasbeh, last week. Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates launched its first airstrikes against ISIS targets in Syria since December after being notified by United States Central Command officials that additional rescue helicopters had been deployed to Erbil, Iraq, to be closer to the zone of combat. Iran. Secretary of State John Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif met on the sidelines of the annual international security conference in Munich this weekend but did not reach an agreement on Iran’s nuclear program. Kerry told NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday that it will be “impossible” to extend nuclear negotiations with Iran beyond June 30 if the “outlines of the agreement” and a political framework have not been agreed on in the next few weeks. Zarif echoed Kerry’s sentiments, announcing on Sunday from Munich that Iran also prefers to avoid an extension of the talks. Zarif said that “sanctions are a liability; you need to get rid of them if you want a solution…We need to seize this opportunity. It may not be repeated.” U.S. Foreign Policy Israel. Prominent Democrats including Vice President Joe Biden, Senator Patrick Leahy, and members of the Congressional Black and Hispanic Caucuses were joined today by almost half of the Jewish Democrats in Congress in announcing that they will not attend Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s scheduled March 3 address to Congress. President Barack Obama on Monday defended his decision not to meet with Netanyahu during the upcoming Washington visit, saying it was “important for [the United States] to maintain these protocols, because the U.S.-Israeli relationship is not about a particular party.” Netanyahu responded by saying his decision to speak to Congress about Iran’s nuclear program is not because he “seeks confrontation with the president, but [is in order to] fulfill [his] obligation to speak up on a matter that affects the very survival of [Israel].” ISIS. President Barack Obama proposed legislation to Congress yesterday that would grant the administration a three-year Authorization for the Use of Military Force (AUMF) to fight ISIS. Obama’s proposal would allow the deployment of ground troops for Special Operation commandos and rescue missions but would not authorize U.S. soldiers to conduct “enduring offensive ground combat operations.” The legislation would also repeal the 2002 war authorization that gave former president George W. Bush the authority to invade Iraq. However, the proposed legislation would not affect the separate 2001 AUMF authorizing military operations against al-Qaeda following the September 11 attacks. The administration currently uses those authorities to justify U.S. efforts to combat ISIS. Meanwhile, in preparation for an anticipated spring offensive to retake Mosul, Kurdish Peshmerga fighters backed by coalition airstrikes retook three strategic corridors into the city on Monday. According to a commander of the Combined Joint Task Force Operation Inherent Resolve, “this most recent Peshmerga operation is yet another example of how Daesh can be defeated militarily using a combination of well-led and capable ground forces.” Elsewhere Yemen. The United States closed its embassy in Yemen on Tuesday in the wake of the Yemeni government collapsing after a coup by Houthi militants last Friday. Other Western countries, including the United Kingdom, Germany, and France followed, announcing they would also close their embassies. U.S. officials cited security concerns as the reason for the embassy closure. Many obsevers, however, saw the U.S. move as an effort to put political pressure on Yemen’s new Houthi-led interim government to negotiate a power-sharing agreement, noting that embassy remained open during more volatile times in Yemen’s capital. That sentiment was echoed by a Yemeni Foreign Ministry official, who stated that “the closure does not necessarily mean the security situation is bad, but it could mean the foreign missions want to exercise or put more pressure on the Houthis.” UN Special Envoy to Yemen Jamal Benomar warned last night that Yemen was “on the brink of a civil war.” Tunisia. Tunisian authorities on Monday arrested over thirty extremists who were allegedly planning attacks on civilian and military sites in Tunisia. According to Mohammad Ali Aroui, spokesperson for the Interior Ministry, the militants planned to target the Interior Ministry and two National Guard posts. He added that many of those arrested had travelled to Syria to fight. Libya. UN peace talks resumed yesterday in Ghadames near the Algerian border, led by UN Special Envoy Bernardino Leon. UN officials said yesterday’s talks aimed to secure a deal on a unified government, a ceasefire, and on removing armed militias from Libya’s main cities. Meanwhile, Libyan special forces announced Monday that they had retaken Benghazi’s main military base from Islamist fighters. The special forces are backed by troops led by Heneral Khalifa Haftar, who supports the internationally recognized parliament, led by exiled Prime Minister Abdullah al-Thinni. Bahrain. Bahrain’s Information Affairs Authority (IAA) announced on Monday that it decided to suspend the activities of a new Saudi news channel, Alarab, hours after it went on the air on February 1. The IAA cited “technical and administrative reasons” for the suspension, but it also accused Alarab of failing to “take account of efforts aimed at stemming the tide of extremism and terrorism throughout the region and the world.”Alarab had interviewed Khalil Marzook, the deputy leader of the Shia opposition party al-Wefaq, which is openly critical of the Bahraini regime before its activities were suspended.    

Significant Developments Jordan-ISIS. King Abdullah returned to a warm welcome in Jordan today after cutting short his visit to Washington yesterday. Abdullah’s move followed the release by ISIS of a video yesterday depicting captured Jordanian pilot Moaz al-Kasasbeh being burned to death in a cage. Crowds gathered to express support for the Jordanian king’s decision to swiftly execute Sajida al-Rishawi, a failed suicide bomber on death row, and Ziad al-Karbouli, a former top lieutenant of Al Qaeda in Iraq, in retaliation for al-Kasasbeh’s death. Meanwhile, the New York Times reported today that the United Arab Emirates, a crucial regional ally in the U.S.-led international coalition against ISIS, suspended airstrikes in December after news of al-Kasasbeh’s capture broke, over concerns for the safety of its own pilots. The United Arab Emirates reportedly demanded that the Pentagon improve its search-and-rescue efforts and base its missions in northern Iraq instead of Kuawit to be closer to the field of battle The UAE, one of the first counties to join the coalition, will not resume operations until these changes are implemented. See my take on the implications of ISIS’ brutal killing of al-Kasasbeh in my blog post from yesterday. Egypt. An Egyptian court sentenced a prominent activist, Ahmed Douma, and 229 other Egyptians to life in prison today. Meanwhile, Canadian Foreign Minister John Baird announced yesterday that imprisoned Al-Jazeera journalist Mohamed Fahmy would be released “imminently” after the dual national agreed to renounce his Egyptian citizenship to speed up proceedings. Baird’s announcement follows the Sunday release of Australian Al-Jazeera journalist Peter Greste. Al-Jazeera promised on Monday “not to leave” behind producer Baher Mohammed, the third incarcerated Al-Jazeera journalist. The three were arrested in December 2013 for illegally aiding the Muslim Brotherhood. Egypt’s ousted president Mohammad Morsi will be tried on February 15 on new charges of espionage. He is accused of “handing over to Qatari intelligence documents linked to national security in exchange for one million dollars,” according to a statement from the prosecution. Morsi could face the death penalty if found guilty. An Egyptian court upheld death sentences against 183 supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood on Monday for killing eleven police officers and two civilians during protests in 2013. The United Nations called the verdict “unprecedented in recent history” and said that the expedited trials failed to follow due process. U.S. Foreign Policy Diplomatic budget for 2016. President Obama is seeking $50.3 billion in spending for the State Department and USAID to spend in 2016. This figure represents a 9 percent increase in funds compared with the 2015 fiscal year. Of the $50.3 billion, Obama plans to allocate $3.5 billion to support regional partners in the U.S.-led international coalition against ISIS, to provide humanitarian assistance, and to strengthen the moderate Syrian opposition. $1.1 billion of the requested budget is to be allocated to support diplomatic engagements in Iraq. An extra $4.8 billion has been requested to increase the protection for diplomats worldwide. The Benghazi Accountability Board, established in the wake of the 2012 killing of U.S. officials in Libya, recommended these security upgrades. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Palestine. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas called for an “immediate investigation” on Monday into a cartoon depicting the Prophet Muhammad published on Sunday by the West Bank-based newspaper Al-Hayat al-Jadida. According to one of the newspaper’s editors, the cartoonist, Muhammad Sabaaneh, and the editor in chief of the paper were suspended yesterday. Sabaaneh denied that the cartoon was meant to represent the prophet, arguing that it aimed to depict a “symbolic figure for Islam and the Muslim’s role in spreading light and love for all humanity.” Abbas joined world leaders to march in favor of freedom of expression in Paris last month during a mass rally commemorating the attack on the French satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo. Yemen. UN-mediated peace talks appear likely to fail after Yemen’s main political parties withdrew from the negotiations on Monday. This comes after Houthi rebels issued a three day ultimatum on Sunday stipulating that if the rival political parties failed to reach an agreement by Wednesday, the Houthis would completely take over the government. The Houthi rebels also demanded that fighters from their militia be integrated into the Yemeni army and police force as a precondition for talks. Tunisia. Tunisia’s prime minister-designate, Habib Essid, announced a new coalition cabinet yesterday after the first government he nominated was rejected for being all-secular by Ennahda, the main Islamist party and the second largest party in Parliament. The new cabinet includes a minister and three state secretaries from Ennahda. The proposed government will be put before parliament for a vote of confidence today. Iran. The Iranian parliament is examining a bill aiming “to protect the nuclear rights and achievements of Iranian people.” The bill would oblige the Iranian government to immediately stop implementing the November 2013 Joint Plan of Action if the U.S. Congress approves new sanctions against Iran. The Iranian bill also calls for an increase in Iran’s enrichment program and building of a heavy water reactor at Arak, two actions limited under the current deal. President Barack Obama has pledged to veto Congress’ proposed legislation for new sanctions, which would in theory keep the Iranian bill from being passed. It is unclear when the Iranian parliament will vote on the proposed legislation. UN- Israel. The United Nations Human Rights Council announced yesterday that New York Supreme Court justice Mary McGowan Davis will replace William Schabas as chairperson of the panel commissioned last August to investigate whether war crimes were committed in the latest Gaza conflict. Schabas resigned from the commission on Monday to avoid becoming “an obstacle and distraction” to the work of the panel after Israel accused him of “a blatant conflict of interest.” Israel had formally complained to the UN Human Rights Council last week over paid consulting work Schabas had done for the Palestinian Liberation Organization in 2012. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called yesterday for the Gaza inquiry to be terminated once news of Schabas’ resignation broke. Jordan-Israel. Jordan announced on Monday the return to Israel of its ambassador, Walid Obeidat, three months after he was recalled in protest of clashes at the Temple Mount/Haram Al-Sharif. A Jordanian government spokesman said that Jordan had seen “significant improvements” in the access to the mosque that Muslim worshippers were granted on Fridays, and that there had been better coordination on tourist visits between the Israeli authorities and the Islamic authorities who administer the site under Jordanian supervision. Israeli Prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu welcomed Jordan’s decision.