Middle East Matters

This post is written by Sarah Craig, a Council on Foreign Relations research intern from Princeton University. Jordan’s king Abdullah was the first foreign head of state to visit Egypt after the military’s July 3 removal of President Mohammad Morsi. Abdullah had spoken publicly against the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan and clearly welcomed its fall in Egypt, congratulating both the army and interim president Adly Mansour on the leadership changes. After their meeting, Mansour agreed to focus more attention on developing bilateral economic and political ties. Closer ties with Egypt are crucial for Jordan, which saw imports of Egyptian natural gas fall precipitously under Morsi’s rule, sparking political unrest at home. However, while warmer political ties between the two countries are sure to follow the fall of the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt’s inability to control the Sinai may continue to have a devastating impact on Jordan’s economy. Energy-starved Jordan imports around ninety-seven percent of its energy needs, with Egypt’s Arab Gas Pipeline (AGP) serving as the Hashemite Kingdom’s principle source of natural gas. The main conduit runs from Arish in Egypt to Aqaba in Jordan through the Sinai Peninsula, a historically restive region of Egypt. Sinai militants have repeatedly attacked the gas pipeline there, leading to disruptions that cost Jordan around 2 billion dollars last year. Following the Egyptian revolution there were frequent disruptions in the flow of gas from Egypt to Jordan, straining their already frosty relationship. The pipeline was bombed fifteen times in 2011 and 2012. Pipeline exports consequently fell from 193 billion cubic feet in 2010 to 64 in 2011, to 19 in 2012. Such disruption has translated directly into greater economic hardship and indirectly into greater political discontent in Jordan. Sabotage has cost the Jordanian government more than one million dollars per day at certain points, forcing it to occasionally lift energy subsidies. Such a move sparked unprecedented nationwide protests in the Kingdom in November 2012 with the first-ever calls for Abdullah’s ouster. While militant activity was a main contributor to the decrease in exported gas, other factors also played a role. Jordanian officials suspected that Morsi’s government, with its ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, cut natural gas exports in November 2012 in order to foment instability and to pressure Jordan into adopting an anti-Assad stance with Syria. Egyptian officials maintained that the decrease was due to increasing domestic demand and widespread fuel shortages. However, the sudden end to fuel shortages in Egypt following the coup suggests that the shortage was indeed partly manufactured in order to destabilize Morsi. In the wake of Morsi’s ouster, Egypt’s new leadership will most likely decrease or stop the manipulation of energy for political gain. The current secular interim government is less likely to use natural gas as political leverage, at least in terms of Syria, since it will have less of a personal stake in the outcome of Syria’s civil war. Nonetheless, Jordan will likely continue to receive lower levels of natural gas as Egypt endures genuine, not just manufactured, fuel shortages. Egypt has experienced rising domestic energy demands and began importing natural gas for the first time in December 2012. Now that Morsi has been removed, militants in Sinai are likely to step up their attacks on the pipeline. They attacked the pipeline on July 6, the first time in almost a year. Unless the Egyptian military can effectively control insurgent activity in Sinai and halt attacks on the natural gas pipeline, Jordan will continue to suffer energy shortages and will have to settle for more expensive options elsewhere. Egypt’s ability to quell the violence in Sinai remains far from certain, especially since the military now faces a much more militarized peninsula. The region became more militarized when North Sinai experienced a security vacuum after President Hosni Mubarak was overthrown two years ago, allowing local Bedouin insurgents and Islamist supporters to take control of the region. Morsi’s neglect of the region offered residents a taste of freedom unknown during the Mubarak era. Since Egypt’s military removed Morsi on July 3, North Sinai militants have launched attacks on the military and police, killing dozens. Bedouin leaders told the Washington Post: “As much as the Sinai insurgency derives from militant anger at Morsi’s ouster, it is also a preemptive backlash rooted in fear.” So far, the Egyptian military seems inclined to take on this insurgency challenge. On July 27, Egypt launched Operation Desert Storm and sent more troops to Sinai to suppress the violence. However, while Israel has made exceptions to the military limitations in its peace treaty with Egypt and allowed several Egyptian battalions to patrol Sinai, the Egyptian military by no means wields overwhelming force in the region. Even with previous unrest Israel did not broaden the agreement to allow full deployment of Egyptian troops. Limitations on Egypt’s military presence seem likely to continue. Jordan has warmly welcomed the military takeover in Egypt since it helped put Islamist parties in Jordan and throughout the region on the defensive. However, decreases in Jordan’s share of Egypt’s plentiful supply of natural gas could also put the Jordanian government on the defensive. Abdullah himself has said that the “the discontinuation of the natural gas supply from Egypt” would deal the “harshest blow” to Jordan’s economy. With demand outpacing supply, Jordan’s government is considering increasing electricity prices by fifteen percent. The result could be public outcry, demonstrations, and renewed instability. If so, and especially if Sinai militants continue to impede natural gas exports, then the economic benefits of political rapprochement between Cairo and Amman will be dramatically overshadowed by the negative ripple effect of fuel shortages.

Significant Developments Syria. Syrian officials denied rebel claims that they hit part of President Bashar al-Assad’s motorcade with artillery shells near his home in Damascus today. The president appeared on national television later in the day. If confirmed, today’s attack would be one of the most direct against Assad in two years of fighting. At least 4,420 people, most of them fighters, were killed during the month of Ramadan, Syrian Observatory for Human Rights director Rami Abdel Rahman reported today. The Syrian army killed more than sixty insurgents near Damascus yesterday while rebels reportedly gained control of a government air base on Tuesday and captured four villages in Latakia on Monday.  Meanwhile, Assad banned on Sunday the use of foreign currencies for business transactions in an effort to strengthen the Syrian pound. Violators could be fined or sentenced to up to six months in jail. Israel-Palestine. Israel’s military-run Civil Administration announced that initial plans were approved yesterday for eight hundred new homes in the West Bank that the government has yet to okay. The Israeli cabinet on Sunday added several Israeli West Bank settlements to a “national priority list,” making those settlements eligible for extra subsidies and infrastructure projects. These moves could complicate the ongoing Israeli-Palestine peace negotiations. Tzipi Livni, the Israeli minister leading the negotiations, abstained on the vote approving the national priority list. Meanwhile, Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas canceled a meeting with Fatah and PLO leaders and instead traveled to Saudi Arabia on Tuesday where he met with Saudi king Abdullah Bin Abdulaziz. Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations are set to begin next week in Jerusalem. Egypt. Naglaa Mahmoud, the wife of former president Mohammad Morsi, addressed thousands of supporters today in her first public appearance since the July 3 coup.  She spoke at a protest camp in Cairo and vowed that Morsi would return to office. Interim president Adly Mansour yesterday declared international efforts to resolve the political crisis a failure. Mansour said that he “holds the Muslim Brotherhood completely responsible for the failure of these efforts, and for consequent events and developments relating to violations of the law and endangering public safety.” Prime Minister Al-Beblawi also said that the military would begin clearing pro-Morsi sit-ins, and he warned against resistance to those efforts. A Cairo court ruled on Sunday that three top Muslim Brotherhood officials will go to trial on August 25 over charges of inciting Brotherhood members to kill rioters. The Brotherhood’s supreme guide, Mohamed Badie; his deputy, Khairat el-Shater; and another official, Mohamed Bayoumi, stand accused of incitement to murder. Meanwhile, an unknown gunman shot and killed Abdel Hamid al-Salami, a former parliamentarian, in El Arish, North Sinai yesterday. The Sinai Peninsula has seen an uptick in violence over the last month, and the Egyptian military yesterday announced that it had killed sixty Sinai militants since Morsi’s ouster on July 3. Iran. Recently inaugurated president Hassan Rouhani declared on Tuesday that he was “seriously determined” to resolve the ongoing nuclear dispute and was prepared to enter “serious and substantive” negotiations. The last high-level round of international negotiations was held in April and failed to break the deadlock. Meanwhile, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Monday appointed former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to the Expediency Council, Iran’s top supervisory body.  Iranian authorities have arrested a man on charges of spying for Israel, the Mehr news agency reported on Monday. The man will face trial, and espionage is punishable by death under Iranian law. U.S. Foreign Policy Egypt. Senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham traveled to Cairo this week at President Barack Obama’s request. In Egypt, they warned on Tuesday that the U.S. government would cut off aid if the interim government failed to transition toward democracy. “We are hoping and begging and pleading with the people of Egypt that they will look forward and not backward; that means releasing people so that they can negotiate,” Graham said. “It is impossible to talk to somebody who’s in jail.” Their visit came after deputy secretary of state Bill Burns, European Union envoy Bernardino Leon, and an official from the African Union visited Muslim Brotherhood leader Khairat al-Shater in prison on Sunday.  Secretary of State John Kerry on Sunday recommended Robert Ford, the current ambassador to Syria, to become the next U.S. ambassador to Egypt. Ford must still be approved by the White House and confirmed by the Senate, although no major opposition is expected.  Ford was recalled from Syria in February 2012 and now serves as the chief American envoy to the Syrian opposition. Closing of Embassies. Reports from Yemen of a potential al-Qaeda terrorist attack prompted the closure of nineteen U.S. embassies and consulates in sixteen countries across the Middle East and Africa. Britain and France extended the closure of their Yemeni embassies after the State Department announced on Sunday that U.S. diplomatic outposts will remain closed until Saturday. Syria. The United States will provide Syria with an additional $195 million in food and humanitarian aid, President Barack Obama announced yesterday. This aid brings the total U.S. humanitarian contribution to more than $1 billion since the Syrian crisis began. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Yemen. Security officials in Sana claimed yesterday that they had foiled an al-Qaeda plot to seize an important port and kill or kidnap foreigners working there, though the claims could not be confirmed. It was unclear whether the alleged plot was disrupted by recent U.S. drone attacks. Drone strikes have killed at least fourteen people in Yemen the last three days. Tunisia.  The leading Islamist party yesterday agreed to suspend the National Constitution Assembly and urged talks to form a national unity party. Tens of thousands of people demonstrated against the Ennahda government in Tunis on Tuesday after weeks of unrest sparked by the July 25 killing of an opposition member. Turkey. Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan said today that Turkey’s parliament may reconvene early from summer recess to pass laws that would expand Kurdish rights. Kurds are calling for legislative reforms to address long-standing grievances, such as Kurdish language education and expansion of local governance. More than seventy-five people, including Turkey’s former military chief, were convicted Monday of plotting to overthrow Erdogan’s government in 2002. Some 250 people are facing verdicts in this landmark five-year-trial, and defendants are expected to appeal Monday’s sentences. Iraq. A two-pronged attack on a policeman’s home killed the policeman and twelve others in central Iraq, police officials said today. Bombings killed six people yesterday and at least fifty-one people on Tuesday, part of a surge of violence in recent months. Saudi Arabia. Saudi officials have reportedly offered Russia a range of economic incentives, including a major arms deal, in exchange for scaled back Russian support for Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, news sources reported yesterday.  The deal was supposedly proposed by Saudi intelligence chief Prince Bandar bin Sultan at a meeting with Russian president Vladimir Putin in Moscow last week. This Week in History This Saturday marks the ninety-third anniversary of the signing of the Treaty of Sèvres, the post-World War I agreement that partitioned the defeated Ottoman Empire. On August 10, 1920, the victorious Allied powers, led by Great Britain and France, forced representatives of the Ottoman sultan Mehmed VI to sign the treaty. The terms left Turkey with a small state in Anatolia while dismembering the rest of the former empire. The treaty placed Mesopotamia and Palestine under British mandatory rule, while Syria was placed under a French mandate, the Kingdom of Hejaz was granted independence in the Arabian Peninsula, an autonomous Kurdish zone was created, and Armenia was granted independence. However, a rival nationalist government in Turkey that came to power under Mustafa Kemal Ataturk rejected the treaty that was signed by the sultan. Ataturk’s triumph in the Greco-Turkish war and the formation of the modern state of Turkey led to the negotiation of the Treaty of Lausanne in 1923 which superseded the never implemented Treaty of Sèvres. The new treaty defined the boundaries of the Turkish Republic, and notably did not include either Kurdish autonomy or Armenian independence.