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Middle East Matters

Robert Danin analyzes critical developments and U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East.

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U.S. President Donald Trump (L) and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas wait for photographers to depart before beginning their meeting at the Presidential Palace in the West Bank city of Bethlehem
U.S. President Donald Trump (L) and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas wait for photographers to depart before beginning their meeting at the Presidential Palace in the West Bank city of Bethlehem (Jonathan Ernst/Reuters).

Reading The Trump Administration in Ramallah

Does the United States seek relations with Hamas in Gaza and to undermine the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) leadership in the West Bank? Palestinians officials and insiders asked me this question repeatedly during a recent visit to Ramallah. At first, the question seems strange. How could well-informed insiders come to wonder if the United States prefers to deal with an Islamist terrorist organization to a leadership that avows non-violence and actively pursues security cooperation with Israel on a daily basis? Read More

Jordan
Middle East Voices from the UN General Assembly
World leaders converged at the United Nations this week for the sixty-eighth session of the General Assembly. The Middle East was well represented, with numerous heads of states and governments attending from across the region. Middle East Matters has excerpted remarks from Middle Eastern leaders who spoke from the General Assembly’s rostrum this week. The debate concludes next Tuesday. President Abdullah Gul, Turkey: On Syria: “Were it not for the use of chemical weapons, would the international community have continued to turn a blind eye to the deaths of more than a hundred thousand people? For how long can we afford to evade our moral responsibility to the people being killed even as we speak? This conflict neither began with the use of chemical weapons nor will it end with an agreement to eliminate them. We therefore bluntly reject any position that is not troubled by the killing of innocent people in itself, but only by the means of such killing. Such an approach is immoral and totally unacceptable.” On Syria and the United Nations Security Council: “It is a disgrace that the United Nations Security Council has failed to uphold its primary responsibility in this case. It is deeply regrettable that political differences, balance-of-power politics, and geopolitical considerations have prevailed over the imperative to end this tragedy.” King Abdullah II, Jordan: On regional issues: “Our region can be, must be, a House of Peace and Prosperity…But no house can be built when its city is burning.” On Syria: “The Syrian crisis is a global humanitarian and security disaster. Escalating violence threatens to hollow-out the rest of that country’s economic and political future.” “The flow of Syrian refugees in Jordan already equals one-tenth of our own population. It could reach one million, some 20% of our population, by next year. These are not just numbers; they are people, who need food, water, shelter, sanitation, electricity, health care and more. Not even the strongest global economies could absorb this demand on infrastructure and resources, let alone a small economy and the fourth water-poorest country in the world.” Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani, Qatar: On Syria: “The Syrian people has not risen up for putting the Syrian chemical weapons under the international supervision but for getting rid of despotism and corruption and to end the injustice it has been facing.” On the United Nations Security Council: “We all know that the responsibility for failure to impose the political settlement we all prefer for Syria is due basically to the inability of the Security Council to take the required decision to stop the bloodshed and continued intransigence of the Syrian regime and its refusal of all regional and international initiatives. From this perspective, the decision-making process at the Security Council has become in need of change since it lacks fairness and objectivity.” On Palestine: “The organizations of the international community have been established on the basis of granting the right of self-determination after the world wars. And it is unreasonable that they could not do anything about the last colonial issue of our world.” President Hassan Rouhani, Iran: On Iran’s nuclear program: “Iran’s nuclear program…must pursue exclusively peaceful purposes. I declare here, openly and unambiguously, that, notwithstanding the positions of others, this has been, and will always be, the objective of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Nuclear weapon and other weapons of mass destruction have no place in Iran’s security and defense doctrine, and contradict our fundamental religious and ethical convictions.” “The Islamic Republic of Iran, insisting on the implementation of its rights and the imperative of international respect and cooperation in this exercise, is prepared to engage immediately in time-bound and result-oriented talks to build mutual confidence and removal of mutual uncertainties with full transparency.” On sanctions and international engagement: “Unjust sanctions…are intrinsically inhumane and against peace. And contrary to the claims of those who pursue and impose them, it is not the states and the political elite that are targeted, but rather, it is the common people who are victimized by these sanctions.” “[T]hose who harp on the so called threat of Iran are either a threat against international peace and security themselves or promote such a threat. Iran poses absolutely no threat to the world or the region.” On Syria: “Pursuit of expansionist strategies and objectives and attempts to change the regional balance through proxies cannot be camouflaged behind humanitarian rhetoric. The common objective of the international community should be a quick end to the killing of the innocent.” President Michel Sleiman, Lebanon: On Syria: “As for the most pressing and biggest burden, which has begun to take an existential dimension, it derives from an unprecedented increase in the numbers of incoming refugees from Syria, way beyond Lebanon’s capacity of assimilation, exceeding one fourth of Lebanon’s population.” “The Lebanese must also revert to their commitment to the ‘Baabda Declaration’ which sets out Lebanon’s disassociation from the negative fallout of the regional crises and the policy of axes...” On Palestine: “As for the main challenge, it still derives from the repercussions of the Arab-Israeli conflict, the persistence of the Israeli occupation and oppressive practices, as well as Israel’s attempt to establish more illegal settlements, and Judaize the city of Jerusalem (Al-Quds), and the failure of the international community to find a just and comprehensive solution for all the aspects of this conflict, especially with the subsequent Refugee problem in the neighboring host countries, in particular Lebanon, the enhanced sense of injustice and tendency for extremism and violence, and the resulting human and material losses that have hindered the projects of economic and social progress throughout the Arab nation.” Prime Minister Sheikh Jaber al-Mubarak al-Hamad al-Sabah, Kuwait: On Iran’s nuclear program: “[T]he state of Kuwait supports the ongoing efforts to peacefully resolve this issue in a manner that will preserve the right of the Islamic Republic of Iran and all the countries in the region, to use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes under the supervision and monitoring of the International Atomic Energy Agency.” On Palestine: “We value in this respect the ongoing efforts of the United States of America to achieve a breakthrough in the peace process, hoping that persistent efforts and pressure on Israel will make it accept the resolutions of international legitimacy.” On relations with Iraq: “Through communications at the highest level between the leaderships of both countries, our bilateral relations have developed positively and tangibly by overcoming past differences between the two countries, and looking forward to strengthen and develop future bilateral relations for the welfare and interest of the peoples of both countries.” Prime Minister Ali Zeidan, Libya: On Libya: “The constituent body election law to draft a permanent constitution issued by the National Congress on July 20, 2013 is another step to accomplish the most important National agenda items, towards the formulation and adoption of a permanent constitution for Libya that would end a difficult transitional period the country is currently experiencing, with some security incidents and breaches occurring from time to time, that the official authorities are addressing with the available potentials.” On Palestine: “The time has now come for the international community to assume its responsibilities to end this tragedy as soon as possible, by taking urgent and decisive actions to ensure the full protection of the Palestinians, and to stop the daily suffering and relieve the injustice through comprehensive solution to the Palestinian issue that would remove the occupation and enable the Palestinian people to restore their territory and establish their own independent Palestinian state with Al-Quds as its capital, and the return of all Palestinian refugees to their homes, according to the relevant international resolutions.” On Syria: “We reiterate our call to the UN Security Council to act in accordance with the concept of the Responsibility to Protect, in order to find a solution to the problem, through consensus among its members, to save the Syrian people from daily massacres and help in achieving their legitimate demands.” President Mahmoud Abbas, Palestine: On Palestine: “I am honored to address you today, and for the first time in the name of the State of Palestine, before the United Nations General Assembly, after your historic decision last 29 November to raise Palestine’s status to that of an observer State.” “The objective of the negotiations is to secure a lasting peace accord that leads immediately to the establishment of the independence of a fully sovereign State of Palestine, with East Jerusalem as its capital, on all of the Palestinian lands occupied in 1967, so that it may live in peace and security alongside the State of Israel, and the resolution of the plight of Palestine refugees in a just agreed upon solution according to United Nations resolution 194, as called for by the Arab Peace Initiative.” “Here we reaffirm that we refuse to enter into a vortex of a new interim agreement that becomes eternalized, or to enter into transitional arrangements that will become a fixed rule rather than an urgent exception. Our objective is to achieve a permanent and comprehensive agreement and a peace treaty between the States of Palestine and Israel that resolves all outstanding issues and answers all questions, which allows us to officially declare and end of conflict and claims.” “History teaches us – and it is the best teacher – that waging war, occupation, settlements and walls may provide temporary quiet and a momentary domination, but they certainly do not ensure real security nor guarantee a sustainable peace.” “Let us work to make the culture of peace reign, to tear down walls, to build bridges instead of walls, to open wide roads for connection and communication. Let us sow the seeds of good neighborliness. Let us envision another future that the children of Palestine and of Israel enjoy with peace and security, and where they can dream and realize their dreams, a future that allows Muslims, Christians and Jews to freely reach places of worship; and a future in which Israel will gain the recognition of fifty-seven Arab and Muslim countries and where the States of Palestine and Israel will coexist in peace, in order to realize each people’s hopes for progress and prosperity.” “The Palestinian people do not want to remain "out of place" in the words of Edward Said. Our people wait for a day when its cause ceases to be a fixed item on the agenda of the United Nations. Our people want to have freedom, God’s gift to humanity, and to enjoy the grace of living an ordinary life.” Vice President Khudheir Mussa Al-Khuzaie, Iraq On Syria: “[W]e in Iraq, whose people suffered tremendously from the horrors of war caused by the recklessness and follies of the defunct Saddam regime, are deeply concerned by the worsening events and tense situation on our borders with Syria, a country with which we have over 600 km long borders. This is why we consider the Syrian conflict a serious threat to our security, stability and the integrity of our land and people.” On regional issues: “[N]o pre or post 2015 sustainable development is attainable with the existence of organized terrorism thriving on the bloodshed of innocent people as it claims their lives. This scourge has adopted extremism as its approach, death as its craft, violence as its means, hatred as its culture and senseless and indiscriminate murder as its hobby.” On relations with Kuwait: “Iraq suffered for more than two decades from international sanctions because of the invasion of the State of Kuwait by the former regime, however the new Iraq has managed, through its cooperation with the international community on the one hand and through the development of its brotherly relations with the neighboring State of Kuwait, to overcome the effects of the sanctions and work together with UN Security Council...” “Today, we look forward together to build the present to be a springboard and a solid foundation for a prosperous future for the generations that will reflect its positive effects on the entire region.”  
United States
This Week: Syria, Iran, and Israeli-Palestinian Diplomacy; Violence in Egypt
Syria. Diplomats in New York appeared stymied in their efforts to craft a new United Nations Security resolution calling for the removal of Syria’s chemical weapons arsenal. The Security Council began discussing a resolution on Tuesday to support last weekend’s U.S.-Russia deal that called for Syria to account for its chemical weapons within one week and for the destruction of its entire arsenal by mid-2014; members are divided over whether or not to include the threat of sanctions or force. Last Saturday, Secretary of State Kerry said, “We agreed that Syria must submit within a week – not in 30 days, but in one week -- a comprehensive listing.” Yesterday, however, State Department spokeswoman Marie Hard said that, “We’ve never said it was a hard and fast deadline.” Russian president Vladimir Putin reiterated his suggestion today that the chemical weapons use in Syria had been carried out by the opposition, saying, “We have every reason to believe it was a cunning provocation.” Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said on Wednesday that Russia will present evidence to the UN Security Council of chemical weapons use by the Syrian opposition, while one of his deputies called the recently released report from the UN chemical weapons experts “distorted.” Syrian president Bashar al-Assad appeared today in an interview with Fox News and said that Syria could make the chemical weapons sites accessible to international experts “tomorrow,” but that he has heard the process of destroying the weapons will take approximately one year. Egypt. Egyptian security forces engaged in a deadly firefight today with armed supporters of deposed president Mohamed Morsi in Kerdasa, just outside Cairo. Police general Nabil Farrag was shot to death, with his forces arresting at least fifty suspected militants. Egyptian state television announced today that the curfew imposed on August 14 will begin an hour later (midnight) and be lifted and hour earlier (5 am) starting on Saturday. Meanwhile, one of Morsi’s lawyers said yesterday that the ousted president spoke with his family by telephone last week for the first time since he was detained by the Egyptian military in July. U.S. Foreign Policy Iran. White House spokesman Jay Carney said yesterday that President Barack Obama’s confidential letter to Iranian president Hassan Rouhani declared the United States’ readiness to resolve the nuclear dispute with Iran in a way “allows Iran to demonstrate that its nuclear program is for exclusively peaceful purpose.” Obama confirmed the exchange of letters with Iran’s new president, Hassan Rouhani, in an interview with George Stephanopoulos on ABC’s This Week on Sunday. In the same interview, Obama said that Iran should not think that the United States will not strike because it has not struck in Syria, and that the nuclear issue is more significant to the United States than the chemical weapons issue. Both Obama and Rouhani are set to address the UN General Assembly next week in New York, but are not scheduled to meet. Israel. U.S. officials confirmed that President Obama is slated to host Prime Minister Netanyahu at the White House on September 30. The story was first released by Israeli officials. Netanyahu will meet the president before the Israeli leader addresses the United Nations General Assembly. It will be the first meeting between the two leaders since President Obama visited Israel in March. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Yemen. Yemen’s National Dialogue conference, a six-month reconciliation process that was due to give recommendations on a new constitution and voting system today, was instead extended for another two weeks. The delay occurred when two representatives from former president Ali Abdullah Saleh’s party walked out of a meeting, objecting to a proposal to divide the country into a northern and southern province as an attempt to “harm the unity of the homeland.” While delegates have agreed in principle to a federal state, the number of provinces has become a divisive issue; northerners are pushing for several provinces, but southerners only want two provinces. Palestine. A mew Palestinian Authority government headed by Prime Minister Rami Hamdallah was sworn in today in Ramallah by President Abbas. Hamdallah led a caretaker government after he had submitted his own resignation just two weeks into the job last June. Abbas tapped him to head a new government in August, and Hamdallah managed to form a government after five weeks of struggling to do so. After much jockeying over possible appointments, the new government appointed is an exact replica of the previous one. Palestine-Israel. Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat alleged today before a group of diplomats and journalists that Israel seeks to control the Jordan Valley out of economic greed. Erekat dismissed previous statements by Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Israel should have at least a forty-year presence in the Jordan Valley to ensure Israel’s security after a peace agreement is signed. Meanwhile, Yasser Abed Rabbo, a senior aide to Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas, told Voice of Palestine radio that the peace talks with Israel “are futile and won’t lead to any results.” Bahrain. Sheik Ali Salman, secretary general of main opposition group Al Wefaq, met today with Hakon Smedsvig, the first secretary for political affairs at the Norwegian embassy in Manama. The meeting was in contravention of a recent ban on all contact with foreign diplomats. Five opposition groups, including Al Wefaq, announced the suspension of their participation in reconciliation talks on Wednesday. The announcement came a day after the arrest of Khalil Marzooq, a member of Al Wefaq and a former member of parliament. Marzooq faces charges of “inciting acts of terror.” Tunisia. UGTT, Tunisia’s largest labor union, proposed a roadmap for ending the country’s political deadlock on Tuesday. The proposal, published on the union’s website, calls for a national dialogue, the current government to step-down in one month, and a caretaker government to steer the country towards new elections. The National Assembly held its first complete session on Tuesday after a month-long suspension, but fifty-nine opposition members refused to return.  
Israel
While Everyone Else Was Looking at Syria
Egypt. Interim president Adly Mansour extended the month-long state of emergency for two more months yesterday. A presidential spokesman explained the extension was due to recent “terrorist activities.” Two car bombs hit an Egyptian military intelligence building in Rafah, Sinai on Wednesday, killing at least eleven people, including six soldiers. The attack came four days after the Egyptian military launched a major offensive against Islamist militants in the Sinai Peninsula. Officials describe the operation as the largest sweep of the region in years and report that at least twenty-seven militants have been killed in past six days. Meanwhile, the Egyptian government banned over fifty thousand imams from giving Friday sermons on Monday because they do not have possess the properly accredited preaching licenses. The new restrictions require imams to have licenses from Al Azhar University and are viewed by many as the government’s attempt to rein in imams who support deposed president Mohamed Morsi. A public relations manager for Al Azhar University said that, “If all preachers are Azharis then any radicalism or extremism will be eliminated from mosques and Islamic thought in Egypt will be unified.” Israel-Palestine. U.S. secretary of state John Kerry is set to travel to Jerusalem on Sunday to meet with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Earlier this week, U.S. officials denied the existence of a signed paper guaranteeing peace talks with Israel would start from the 1967 borders; Palestinian official Nabil Shaath told reporters on Monday that Kerry had given such a document to the Palestinian leadership. Kerry met with Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas on Sunday to discuss the talks. Over the weekend, Israeli negotiator Yitzhak Molcho reportedly complained to U.S. envoy Martin Indyk accusing the Palestinians of breaching an agreement not to discuss the content or dates of meetings with the media. Tunisia. Tunisia’s transitional parliament partially resumed activities on Wednesday after a month-long suspension. Mustafa Ben Jafar, president of the parliament, said that full meetings to finish drafting the new constitution will be held next week. The suspension of parliament followed the assassination of Mohamed Brahmi, an opposition member of parliament, in August. Libya. A car bomb exploded outside of a Libyan foreign ministry building in Benghazi Wednesday morning—the one-year anniversary of a deadly attack on the U.S. consulate in the city. No deaths or serious injuries were reported. Referring to the anniversary of the attack that killed four Americans, including Ambassador Chris Stevens, Libyan prime minister Ali Zidan said, “We can’t ignore the date and timing. We can’t forget.” No group has claimed responsibility for the attack. Turkey. Protestors clashed with Turkish security forces in several cities, including Ankara and Istanbul, for the fourth straight day today over the death of twenty-two year-old demonstrator Ahmet Atakan. Atakan died on Monday after he was allegedly hit on the head by a tear gas canister; the Turkish government has denied responsibility and claimed that he fell off a roof. Bahrain. Justice Minister Sheikh Khalid bin Ali Al Khalifa announced on Wednesday the full details of a new law requiring political groups to receive official approval before meeting with foreign governments, diplomats, and international organizations. The law requires groups to contact the Bahraini foreign ministry three days in advance of any such meeting.  
  • Egypt
    Voices From the Region: Syria, Egypt, Lebanon, and Bahrain
    “Obama will strike for the people...The regime also are fighting for the people, and the opposition is fighting for the people. And the people are damned.” –Abdelkader, a municipal employee from Raqqa “Washington doesn’t understand the Middle East. [Obama’s] image here is of someone who is afraid of getting enmeshed in the machinations of the Middle East...There is no trust in Washington in the area because [people] think Obama is weak.” –Maher Abu-Teyr, a political columnist with Ad-Dustour, a semi-official Jordanian daily newspaper. “We are before a tyrannical authority with interests very far from the revolution.” –Gamal Eid, a rights lawyer in Egypt “And then there is the third side...The criminals. They will take everything from you.” –Ahmed, a Syrian teacher who fled to Lebanon “Wefaq has an agenda against Bahrain as a state, and thus its comments against Bahrain cannot be taken at face value.” –Samira Rajab, Bahraini minister of information affairs dismissed the opposition group’s condemnation of Bahrain’s newly announced pan-Arab human rights court “I know that this is not a postponement but a strategic pause to . . . set up for a surprise attack...Of course, people are depressed, and I’m having trouble convincing everyone that there will be a strike.” –Ahmad Nemah, a midlevel Syrian rebel commander “The price of bread is 300 Syrian pounds on the regime’s side and 65 on [the rebel] side...Yesterday the [rebels] did not allow me to cross with bread so I will try again today.” -Abdo, a 23 year-old accountant, who lives in government-held territory but works in a rebel-controlled area
  • Syria
    Syria by the Numbers V
    The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) announced today that more than two million refugees have fled the violence in Syria since the beginning of the conflict in March 2011. Antonio Guterres, UN high commissioner, said that, “Syria has become the great tragedy of this century.” He further noted that the crisis is rapidly accelerating; the first million refugees fled over the course of two years, but the second million have mostly fled in the past six months. To see just how dramatically the war has affected the Syrian people, compare the figures below with the corresponding statistics for the months June 2012 here, August 2012 here, October 2012 here, and May 2013 here. The overall figures from Syria’s conflict below speak for themselves. Length of Conflict 30 months Deaths Total estimated deaths: 110,371 Total estimated opposition deaths: 72,055 – 79,639 Total estimated regime deaths: 11,421 Civilian: 54,373 – 64,683 Children: 7,646 – 7,924 Opposition military: 14,956 – 17,682 Deaths by Province Rural Damascus: 16,637 – 19,227 Aleppo: 11, 696 – 12,290 Homs: 10,862 – 12,321 Idlib: 8,367 – 9,045 Daraa: 6,245 – 6,675 Damascus: 5,405 – 6,255 Hama: 5,014 – 5,547 Deir Ezzor: 4,469 – 4,591 Al-Raqqa: 866 – 1,163 Latakia: 851 – 966  Al-Hasakah: 518 – 648 Tartous: 306 – 513 Quneitra: 350 – 352 Al-Suweida: 48 UN Refugees – Registered or Waiting to be Registered Total number of refugees registered or awaiting registration by the UN: 2,000,938 Total number of registered refugees: 1,826,684 Persons awaiting registration: 174,254 Turkey Total number of registered refugees: 450,584 Persons awaiting registration: 13,301 Jordan Total number of registered refugees: 492,526 Persons awaiting registration: 27,150 Lebanon Total number of registered refugees: 613,806 Persons awaiting registration: 106,197 Iraq Total number of registered refugees: 158,461 Persons awaiting registration: 13,523 Egypt Total number of registered refugees: 97,018 Persons awaiting registration: 14,083 Aid Total funding required Regional Response Plan for Syrian refugees: $2,981,640,112 Total funded: $1,798,219,062