Middle East Matters

President Obama increasingly appears to believe that Egypt’s July 3 military coup was, well, a coup. Until now, he has not wanted to say so lest it trigger an immediate across-the-board cutoff of military assistance to Egypt, as called for by the Leahy Amendment. Today’s media is filled with reports that the president will withhold almost all forms of military assistance already promised to Egypt—tanks, helicopters, fighter jets—while allowing some non-military assistance to continue to flow to Egypt. Obama appears set to still not use the word “coup” so as to retain his freedom of maneuver to resume the military aid should Egypt’s behavior improve. But in ramping down the assistance now, he is acknowledging the obvious: the military seizure of power this summer from a democratically elected, albeit anti-democratic, government has not gone very well. Administration officials may be forgiven for wanting to withhold judgment on the coup in order to give Egypt’s military a chance to demonstrate that its toppling of the Morsi government was a corrective action aimed at preserving Egyptian nascent representative politics, not harming them. With the Muslim Brotherhood apparently on a steady path of using democratic institutions to undermine the fragile institutions of the Egyptian state, Obama held his nose at the military’s intervention, and instead urged a rapid and inclusive transitional political process. But rather than offer a political role for the toppled Muslim Brotherhood, the military has gone for the kill, unleashing violence and repression on the Islamists and excluding them from politics. With the Gulf states stepping in to provide Egypt massive financial assistance (dwarfing Washington’s $1.3 billion in military assistance and whatever influence it may provide), Egypt’s military leaders felt little incentive but to continue on its hardline anti-Islamist course. The problem with the Obama administration’s approach to Egypt’s internal struggle has been the somewhat artificial distinction it has made between issues that it deems vital and those it deems principled. In his landmark May 19, 2011, speech laying out his administration’s views on the Arab uprisings, President Obama articulated it clearly: “There will be times when our short-term interests don’t align perfectly with our long-term vision for the region.” Yet such a distinction is actually artificial, and fails to recognize that adhering to our long-term principles are in our vital and even immediate interests in the region. This perceived distinction prevented the president from calling out the Muslim Brotherhood when it worked to undermine Egyptian institutions when it was in power, and it led him to shy away from calling the military’s coup by its true name. Yes, American military over flights, continued anti-terrorism efforts, and Egypt’s peace with Israel are critical American interests. Yet an approach that aims to secure these interests while largely disregarding the regime’s domestic behavior—be it that of the Muslim Brotherhood or the military—sacrifices long term durability for short term expediency. The resulting gap, between our actions and our principles, has engendered much of the anti-American sentiment we now face in the Middle East. It also calls into question the long-term viability of our efforts. Some will then say that what is being called for here is the diminution of support to our friends and allies in the region. To the contrary: friends shouldn’t let friends rule badly. Repressive and non-inclusive rule is not only wrong, it is short-sighted for all. For years, democracy enthusiasts argued that many Arab regimes were rotting from within due to their repressive and anti-democratic nature. The Arab uprisings proved that stability and freedom are not antipodes, even though the path to the latter can often disrupt the former. The challenge for the United States is to believe in its own principles and demonstrate that we really do seek to be true to our friends—both the peoples and the governments of the Middle East—that share these values.

Significant Developments Syria. The Assad regime provided documents yesterday about its chemical weapons stockpile in the first day of Damascus meetings with the nineteen member advance team from the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW). The team called the Syrian government’s move “promising,” and said it hopes to begin onsite inspections and dismantling efforts next week. Initial timetables aim to destroy production equipment by November and eliminate stock piles in mid-2014. While President Assad pledged to comply with last week’s UN Resolution in an interview on Sunday, saying that “we don’t have any reservation,” Syrian foreign minister Walid Moallem addressed the UN General Assembly on Monday, claiming that the Syrian regime forces were “the ones who were targeted by poisonous gases in Khan A1-Assal, near Aleppo.” Meanwhile, six powerful rebel brigades in Syria released a statement late Wednesday calling for a cease-fire. The cease-fire proposal comes amidst an armed standoff between two armed opposition groups: the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS)—an affiliate of al-Qaeda operating in Syria—and the Northern Storm Brigade based near the Bab al-Salameh border crossing with Turkey. ISIS has been advancing on the Northern Storm Brigade’s positions at the border crossing, a valuable arms supply route to rebel groups, after pushing them out of Azaz two weeks ago. According to Reuters, Saudi Arabia helped fifty armed opposition groups around Damascus consolidate on Sunday under a new umbrella coalition called the Army of Islam, a move designed to counter the strength of ISIS. Egypt. Unidentified militants fired on a military vehicle outside the Suez Canal city of Ismailiya today, killing two soldiers and wounding an officer. The attack followed a Tuesday bombing in the Sinai Peninsula that left three soldiers dead and an attack on Monday in el-Arish that killed three soldiers. Increasing violence across the country has killed over one thousand people since August. Meanwhile, an Egyptian court announced on Tuesday that it will hear an appeal on October 22 against its recent ban of the Muslim Brotherhood. A delegation of former Egyptian parliamentarians met with EU officials in Belgium earlier this week in an attempt to resolve the growing political crisis in Egypt. While members of the Egyptian delegation condemned the military’s recent crackdown, EU officials pushed for negotiation and acceptance of the interim military government. Turkey. Prime Minister Erdogan told a Turkish broadcaster last night that if his party asked, he would run for president next year in the country’s first popular presidential election. Under the rules of the AK Party, Erdogan cannot run again for prime minister in 2015. The Turkish parliament voted yesterday to extend legislation to send troops into Syria for another year, one day before their mandate was set to expire. The government proposed the extension citing a “serious and imminent” threat posed by the Assad regime’s use of chemical weapons. On Monday, Erdogan announced new initiatives aimed at revitalizing the peace process with Kurdish rebels. Some components of the broad reform package still must be approved by Parliament, but if passed they would lift prohibitions on the use of Kurdish language and lower electoral barriers that limit Kurdish representation. Despite the serious criticism Erdogan has drawn from domestic opponents for being too conciliatory, some Kurdish parties have already rejected the reform package as inadequate. U.S. Foreign Policy Israel-Iran. U.S. secretary of state John Kerry said yesterday that failure to take Iran’s diplomatic overtures seriously would be tantamount to “diplomatic malpractice.” Kerry expressed hope for a deal in as little as six months, but added that “nothing we do is going to be based on trust.” President Obama hosted Israeli prime minister Netanyahu at the White House on Monday, where the two primarily discussed Iran’s nuclear program. In an Oval Office photo spray following their meeting, Obama declared that a military strike was still on the table and that his administration is leaving current sanctions in place. The following day, Netanyahu spoke before the United Nations General Assembly and urged the world not to be fooled by “a wolf in sheep’s clothing.” While We Were Looking Elsewhere Saudi Arabia. Saudi officials cancelled their country’s address scheduled for Tuesday before the United Nations General Assembly. Declining to even issue a written statement, Saudi diplomats gave no explanation for the dramatic move. However, press reports indicated that the Saudis were upset both about the international reaction to the war in Syria as well as the potential warming of relations between Iran and the West. Lebanon. Caretaker interior minister Marwan Charbel met with top security officials on Tuesday to draw up a security plan for Tripoli after Hezbollah ceded control of checkpoints to the national security forces. Charbel declared that “there are no more Hezbollah checkpoints on Lebanese territory.” Hezbollah handed over civilian-manned over security checkpoints in Baalbek and Nabatieh to the Lebanese military following clashes on Saturday that left four dead. The increased security measures come in the wake of several bombings in predominately Hezbollah areas aimed at forcing the group to withdraw its forces from Syria and support for the embattled al-Assad regime. Libya. Russia evacuated its embassy in Tripoli on Thursday following an attack the previous day. While no Russian personnel were injured, two attackers were killed by security forces. According to a statement by the Russian Foreign Ministry, the attack was carried out by friends and family of a Libyan pilot recently murdered by a Russian citizen. In an unrelated attack, gunmen assassinated a Libyan colonel in Benghazi on Wednesday, the second shooting in the eastern city in recent days. Iraq. A wave of bombings left as many as fifty-five people dead in Iraq on Monday in an ever escalating spate of sectarian violence. Recent figures from the United Nations show that 979 people were killed in Iraq last month alone and approximately five thousand since April of this year.  While the semi-autonomous Kurdish north has largely avoided the violence of recent years, bombings on Sunday evening in the capital of Erbil have led to questions about the stability of Iraq and spillover from the crisis in Syria. Bahrain. A Bahraini court sentenced four Shiites to life imprisonment on Thursday for detonating a roadside bomb that targeted a police officer. The move comes amidst an ongoing crackdown against the February 14th Movement in Bahrain. Ninety-one other Shiites have been given jail terms this week of up to fifteen years for crimes including detonating bombs, “terrorist crimes,” and forming a “clandestine opposition group.” The Sunni monarchy has faced increased opposition from its Shiite majority since the beginning of the Arab Spring. Yemen. Alleged al-Qaeda militants disguised as soldiers attacked a military compound in al-Mukalla on Monday, taking control of the facility and an undetermined number of soldiers. This brazen attack comes in the wake of a recent surge in violence in Yemen as the government faces a serious challenge from domestic terrorist and separatist movements. Jordan. A Jordanian official announced on Tuesday that three men were recently arrested after displaying posters voicing their support for the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and the recently deposed president, Mohammed Morsi. The three suspects were charged with “acts the government does not approve that would harm Jordan’s relations with a brotherly Arab country,” according to a Jordanian judicial official. This Week In History This week marks the forty-third anniversary of Egyptian president Gamal Abdel Nasser’s funeral in Cairo. Nasser passed away on September 28, 1970,shortly after returning from Jordan where he had helped mediate an end to fighting between Jordanian forces and Palestinian militants. Nasser played a leading role in the Free Officer Movement that deposed King Farouk in 1952. After seizing power two years later, he enacted a broad domestic agenda focused on land redistribution, the nationalization of a large number of industries, as well as the Suez Canal and, the termination of British influence in Egypt. Internationally, Nasser became a lead figure in the non-aligned movement and attempted to unite Egypt and Syria in the ultimately failed United Arab Republic. His funeral was marked by millions of Egyptians pouring into the streets to pay their respects for the first native Egyptian leader in nearly two millennia.