Blogs

Follow the Money

Brad Setser tracks cross-border flows, with a bit of macroeconomics thrown in.

Latest Post

Chinese State Investors Do Not Seem to Profit From Higher U.S. Interest Rates

Given the size and composition of its external lending, China should be clearing far more interest income on its reserves and policy lending than SAFE reports. Read More

Asia
Asia Still Lags When It Comes to FX Market Transparency...
Quarterly disclosure with a quarter lag doesn't add much to the numbers already provided in the balance of payments (especially if it isn't clear what is being disclosed). Semi-annual disclosure provides less information than what's already available in the balance of payments.
United States
Trump’s Sisyphean Task: Bringing Down the U.S. Trade Deficit Without A Fall in the Dollar
Stalled export growth is more a function of the strong dollar than of Trump's trade wars. U.S. non-petrol exports haven't grown over the last five years.
United States
A Big Borrower and a Giant Corporate Tax Dodge? How Best to Describe the U.S. External Balance Sheet
Most grandiose explanations for the United States' persistent surplus in the income balance of the U.S. current account miss the mark. The U.S. debt position tracks the sum of past current account deficits, and the interest rate on that debt tracks the U.S. Treasury rate. The surplus in the income line all comes from the excess income U.S. firms report earning in a few corporate tax havens.
  • Ireland
    Ireland’s Statistical Cry for Help…
    Ireland's tax authorities have made the job of Ireland's statistical authorities almost impossible.   The distortions in the Irish data are now so big that the impact the data for the entire euro area.   
  • Taiwan
    Looking for the Mysterious Hedging Counterparty of Taiwan's Lifers
    This gathers the six post series I did with Concentrated Ambiguity into a single easy accessible post.