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Follow the Money

Brad Setser tracks cross-border flows, with a bit of macroeconomics thrown in.

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Chinese State Investors Do Not Seem to Profit From Higher U.S. Interest Rates

by Brad W. Setser September 2, 2024

Given the size and composition of its external lending, China should be clearing far more interest income on its reserves and policy lending than SAFE reports. Read More

Japan
A Puzzle in Japan’s Balance of Payments: What Explains Strong Foreign Demand for JGBs?
Japanese investors have an obvious incentive to search for yield abroad. But why has foreign demand for Japanese bonds almost matched Japanese demand for foreign bonds?
Blog Post by Brad W. Setser October 24, 2019 Follow the Money
Taiwan
What Might Be in Treasury's October 2019 Foreign Exchange Report?
The Fall 2019 Treasury Foreign Exchange Report should send a strong warning to Thailand, Taiwan, and Singapore that their current pattern of intervention in the market would put them at risk of future designation. But it probably won't focus heavily on any of the three.
Blog Post by Brad W. Setser October 17, 2019 Follow the Money
Taiwan
What Does Taiwan’s Hidden Forward Book Mean for Taiwan’s Financial Stability and U.S. Currency Policy?
Taiwan's central bank—and Taiwanese households—have taken on an awful lot of foreign currency risk over the years …
Blog Post by Brad W. Setser and Guest Blogger for Brad Setser October 15, 2019 Follow the Money
  • Taiwan
    $130+ Billion in Undisclosed Foreign Exchange Intervention by Taiwan's Central Bank
    Based on the profits and losses disclosed by Taiwan’s central bank, it appears that its true FX exposures exceed its disclosed foreign exchange reserves by USD 130bn, and perhaps by as much as USD 200bn.
    Blog Post by Brad W. Setser and Guest Blogger for Brad Setser October 9, 2019 Follow the Money
  • Taiwan
    Could Taiwan’s Commercial Banks Cover the Lifers' Hedging Need? (Part 4)
    Who is on the other side of the massive ($250 billion) hedging need of Taiwan's life insurance industry? The local banking system covers at most a quarter of the life insurers hedging need, and foreigner investors provide less than that... 
    Blog Post by Brad W. Setser and Guest Blogger for Brad Setser October 8, 2019 Follow the Money