Follow the Money

A number of Asian countries could be designated as manipulators in the U.S. Treasury's April foreign exchange report. And unlike the politically motivated designation of China last summer, there would be a clear analytical justification for a new round of designations.

Earlier in the year, there was a plausible argument that Trump's tariffs were mostly just diverting U.S. demand to other markets. But in recent months imports from China and imports from the United States' other trade partners are both falling. And the fall in imports has brought the non-petrol trade deficit down significantly from its levels this summer, though perhaps not permanently.