Ivory Coast

[cetsEmbedGmap src=http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?hl=en&ie=UTF8&source=embed&msa=0&msid=215110937314986215762.00049fb8f75e795a5bb34&ll=2.460181,19.6875&spn=60.244376,135.527344&z=3 width=570 height=425 marginwidth=0 marginheight=0 frameborder=0 scrolling=no] Click on the map’s placemarks for more details. Zoom in and out for a better look. I have been paying particular attention this past week to the following: Nigeria In the first of three elections, each a week apart, Nigerians go to the polls tomorrow to elect members of the National Assembly. After conflicting reports as to the preparedness of polling stations, the Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) addressed reporters and media outlets today to reaffirm that INEC is ready to oversee tomorrow’s elections. The Stakeholders Democracy Network is expressing concern about the potential for violence over the weekend  in Delta State. It will likely be several days before we will have a good picture of how the National Assembly elections went -- the extent to which Nigerians regard the outcome as credible. So, we need to resist the temptation to rush to judgment. Cote d’Ivoire At long last, the crisis in Cote d’Ivoire may be coming to an end, as Ouattara’s troops have apparently surrounded Gbagbo’s palace. In the mean time, Ivorian refugee flows appear to be accelerating into Liberia and Ghana. If Gbagbo’s forces are collapsing, as they appear to be doing, at least some credit goes to the international financial sanctions that have apparently prevented him from paying troops, leading to their disaffection.

Soldiers loyal to Laurent Gbagbo patrol a street in Abidjan March 31, 2011. (Luc Gnago/Courtesy Reuters) I promised yesterday a post on Nigerian violence, but that has been preempted by developments in Cote d’Ivoire. The occupation of the Ivorian capital of Yamassoukro by President Alassane Ouattara’s forces dealt a significant blow to Laurent Gbagbo and his illegal regime. Though Yamassoukro does not function as the Ivorian capital in any meaningful sense, it is important as a national symbol, and Ivorians are proud that one of the largest churches in the world, Notre-Dame de la Paix, is located there. Ouattara’s forces have also occupied some cities in the all-important cocoa producing belt.  There is press speculation that the battle for Abidjan, now Gbagbo’s stronghold, is about to begin.  The fighting may be bloody, unlike the uneventful occupation of Yamassoukro, where apparently Gbagbo’s forces melted away rather calmly. The press reports that Ivorian soldiers are abandoning Gbagbo and that the Ouattara forces are enlisting them. If true, that would indicate that Gbagbo is having trouble paying the army and probably the civil service. The financial sanctions would appear to be biting, and more are on the way. On March 30, The United Nations Security Council imposed new restrictions on Laurent Gbagbo, his wife, and other supporters. As recently as a week ago, it looked like Gbagbo might be able to hold out indefinitely, but that calculation always assumed that he would be able to pay the army by circumventing the international sanctions. I hope Gbagbo sees the writing on the wall and leaves the country, sparing Abidjan a possible bloodbath. But, he has defied the odds before, and he may think he can do so again. [cetsEmbedGmap src=http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF8&hl=en&msa=0&msid=215110937314986215762.00049fcac1925a108045b&ll=7.362467,-5.229492&spn=30.200288,57.084961&z=5 width=285 height=212.5 marginwidth=0 marginheight=0 frameborder=0 scrolling=no] Zoom in and out for a better look.

A boy watches as residents prepare to leave Abidjan from a bus station in Adjame March 20, 2011. (Luc Gnago/Courtesy Reuters) Despite the intense media coverage of the conflict in Libya and the relative neglect of Cote d’Ivoire, the crises are remarkably similar. Both have overwhelming humanitarian dimensions. Fighting has led to internal displacement and refugee flows as well as civilian bloodshed. But international response has been dramatically different. In Libya, western powers have engaged in military strikes while in Cote d’Ivoire, they have limited their response to diplomatic statements and sanctions. Relevant regional organizations have similarly been inconsistent. The African Union, early in the crisis, suggested intervention might be an option in Cote d’Ivoire, which it has since backed away from. The AU came out strongly against it in Libya. The Arab League came out in support of a no-fly zone in Libya, but has since begun to express reservations. The question is why has the international community reacted so differently?

[cetsEmbedGmap src=http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF8&hl=en&msa=0&ll=7.885147,13.535156&spn=101.383764,158.027344&z=3&msid=215110937314986215762.00049ec76b411dfaf6c29 width=570 height=425 marginwidth=0 marginheight=0 frameborder=0 scrolling=no] Click on map placemarks for more details. Zoom in and out for a better look. I have been paying particular attention this past week to the following: Libya The Arab League and the African Union have taken diametrically opposed positions on a Libyan no-fly zone or other forms of foreign intervention for humanitarian purposes. With the passage of UN Security Council Resolution 1973, we anticipate that some Western nations and possibly others will start military action this weekend. Libyan strongman Qaddafi is calling for a cease-fire, but it’s not clear what that means. We will be watching closely for the reaction from African governments to the prospect of outside military intervention, particularly any formal response from the African Union. Note, however, that the African countries currently serving as non-permanent members on the UN Security Council—Gabon, Nigeria, and South Africa—all voted in favor of the resolution. Cote d’Ivoire Gbagbo is still hanging on to power, with speculation that if he can get through March he may remain in office for a long time. We continue to watch Cote d’Ivoire’s apparent descent into civil war and the high likelihood of appalling humanitarian consequences. Along with the New York Times, I continue to be concerned that Cote d’Ivoire has lost the international community’s attention. Note, however, that on March 17 UN officials requested increased “effort and funding" to deal with the worsening humanitarian situation in the country. Kenya Kibaki’s attempts to sideline the current International Criminal Court cases against Kenyan political leaders—the “Ocampo Six”—have largely failed. The Hague issued summons on March 8 for the six suspects’ Pre-trial Chamber appearances on April 7 and 8, and we will be observing the legal proceedings closely, not least because of the political effects in Nairobi. I am skeptical of claims from Kibaki’s party that the ICC trials would exacerbate ethnic conflict in Kenya.

A man points to a burnt shop near Williamsville after a clash between Ivorian security forces and pro-Outtara fighters in Abidjan. (Luc Gnago/Courtesy Reuters) First it was Tunisia and Egypt, then Libya, and now Japan. The international community’s attention is far from Cote d’Ivoire, which nevertheless continues its downward spiral. The struggle between forces loyal to long-term strong man Laurent Gbagbo and those loyal to the legally elected president Alassane Ouattara is beginning to recall other long-lasting civil wars in Africa. Up to one hundred thousand Ivorians have fled to neighboring countries because of the fighting.  Hundreds of thousands of Ivorians are internally displaced, with up to an estimated three hundred thousand in Abidjan, the capital. Both sides in the struggle are resorting to escalating violence, but Gbagbo’s use appears to be more systematic, leading human rights activists to accuse him of war crimes. Gbagbo, despite international opprobrium and sanctions, is receiving aid from the oil-rich Dos Santos government in Angola, possibly arms from Zimbabwe, and sympathy from Uganda and South Africa. And he continues to enjoy significant ethnic and religious support in Cote d’Ivoire. Abidjan is no Cairo or Tunis, where citizens showed remarkable unity of purpose. Rather, Cote d‘Ivoire is a profoundly divided society, and the November 2010 presidential elections that Ouattara won have only accentuated those divisions. The grim outlook is that the struggle will drag on. Cote d’Ivoire’s humanitarian catastrophe is already far along, with international attention increasingly restricted to human rights and humanitarian organizations. This is a sad outcome for what was once West Africa’s most developed economy.

Angola's President Jose Eduardo dos Santos talks to journalists after a signature agreement ceremony held at Sao Bento Palace in Lisbon March 11, 2009. (Hugo Correia/Courtesy Reuters) Angolan President Jose Eduardo dos Santos, in many ways a throwback to the African “Big Men” of a previous generation, looks like he is trying to derail sub-Saharan democracy where he can. He is clearly worried about what the North African “democratic wave” means for his own regime. Human Rights Watch reports that dos Santos has arrested Angolan advocates and journalists ahead of a planned pro-democracy rally in Luanda that was then canceled. The human rights organization places those arrests in the context of broader regime-sponsored intimidation of journalists, democracy advocates, and opposition political leaders. Dos Santos is also backing strong man Laurent Gbagbo in his struggle with Alassane Ouattara, whom the international community regards as the legal president of Cote d’Ivoire. But dos Santos may also be providing more than diplomatic support for Gbagbo. The Economist reports that dos Santos has dispatched Angolan soldiers to provide security for the presidential palace where Gbagbo is living. The Economist also notes rumors that Angola has lent money to the Cote d’Ivoire president so that he can circumvent internationally-imposed economic sanctions and the closing of international banks in Abidjan. If the latter is true, Angolan financial support could be crucial for Gbagbo, enabling him to continue to pay the Ivorian army—essential if he is to retain its loyalty and hang on to power. [cetsEmbedGmap src=http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF8&hl=en&msa=0&ll=-12.382928,13.183594&spn=62.929099,108.720703&z=4&msid=215110937314986215762.00049e8c88c70c14f334d width=285 height=212.5 marginwidth=0 marginheight=0 frameborder=0 scrolling=no]

[cetsEmbedGmap src=http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF8&hl=en&msa=0&msid=215110937314986215762.00049e3912d3c445ea84d&ll=-5.441022,32.519531&spn=111.616503,217.441406&z=3 width=570 height=425 marginwidth=0 marginheight=0 frameborder=0 scrolling=no] Click on map placemarks for more details. Zoom in and out for a better look. Here are some of this week’s headlines that caught my attention Nigeria As I’ve reported on this blog, the situation between Christians and Muslims  in the Middle Belt remains tense. This time, a  night raid on the village of Tafawa Balewa in Bauchi state  left three people dead. An estimated one thousand five hundred people have died over the last year in the region from sectarian violence. Sierra Leone While taking place in the Hague, the trial against former Liberian president Charles Taylor for war crimes in Sierra Leone has finally come to a close. Taylor is being charged for his support for the Revolutionary United Front in the Sierra Leonean civil war. A verdict is not expected until later in the year. Kenya Kenyan justice minister Mutula Kilonzo noted to Reuters that the Kenyan government would attempt to challenge the International Criminal Court’s attempt to try cases related to the 2007 post-election violence. In December 2010, the ICC accused six prominent Kenyans, including the deputy prime minister, of their roles in the sectarian violence that left more than one thousand people dead. Sudan Violence, already taking place regularly in the contested oil-rich Abyei region, looks set to escalate. The George Clooney sponsored Satellite Sentinel Project is reporting a troop build-up in the region from both north and south Sudan. Cote d’Ivoire Fighting between rival presidents Laurent Gbagbo and Alassane Ouattara  in this west African country is having a destructive impact on its civilian population. A reported four hundred and fifty thousand people have fled their homes since the outbreak of violence  following the disputed November 2010 election. Niger Almost exactly one year since the military deposed former president Mamadou Tandja, the country appears about to return to civilian hands. Niger will hold a run-off election on Saturday following a credible first found of polling in January 2011. Zimbabwe As I noted in yesterday’s blog, Mugabe appears to be circling his wagons. In addition to his alleged support for African strongmen Gbagbo in Cote d’Ivoire and Qaddafi in Libya, political violence in the country appears to be escalating.

Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe attends the plenary session of the Africa-South America Summit in Margarita Island September 27, 2009. (Jorge Silva/Courtesy Reuters) It appears Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe has been supporting Cote d’Ivoire’s Laurent Gbagbo and Libyan dictator Muammar al-Qaddafi’s bids to hold on to power. Mugabe, who has a long and close relationship with Qaddafi, has reportedly provided fighters to assist the Libyan dictator. In Cote d’Ivoire, the United Nations is currently investigating a possible arms shipment from Zimbabwe to Gbagbo, violating the arms embargo on the country since 2004. Although I haven’t yet seen a smoking gun in either case, I find both allegations credible and not surprising. Mugabe’s support for Gbagbo and Qaddafi can be seen as strongmen circling their wagons. So where are all these places? Learn more about Africa on the map below. Zoom out for a better perspective. [cetsEmbedGmap src=http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF8&hl=en&msa=0&ll=6.83917,15.117188&spn=63.755632,108.720703&z=4&msid=215110937314986215762.00049e27436df18b662d4 width=285 height=212.5 marginwidth=0 marginheight=0 frameborder=0 scrolling=no]

[cetsEmbedGmap src=http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?hl=en&ie=UTF8&msa=0&msid=215110937314986215762.00049d99462484f3bbe84&ll=5.266008,13.183594&spn=59.696914,70.048828&z=4 width=570 height=425 marginwidth=0 marginheight=0 frameborder=0 scrolling=no] Click on map placemarks for more details. Zoom in and out for a better look. I now have the capacity to embed google maps into the blog, and I think that it will be a useful tool to help illustrate the issues covered in this space. Consider this the beta testing phase while I discover the advantages and drawbacks. And of course thoughts and suggestions are welcome. Cote d’Ivoire This week tensions between Gbagbo and Ouattara continued to escalate toward civil war. In one instance, Gbagbo forces opened fire on Ouattara supporters, killing at least six women in Abidjan, the capital. In the north, where Ouattara derives much of his support, power and electricity have been cut. Sudan Despite its historic referendum for southern independence, Sudan’s oil producing regions continue to experience violence. In Abyei, one of the most contentious regions in the secession, fighting broke out, resulting in killings and displacement. While officials are having difficulty producing an exact death toll from Thursdays violence, UN officials reportedly witnessed thirty-three bodies buried. In Jonglei, another oil producing region further to the south, fighting between the Southern People’s Liberation Army and a rebel group left up to one hundred people dead. Nigeria Now only weeks away from the beginning of Nigeria’s 2011 state and national elections, campaigning and its accompanying violence is in full swing. At least one bomb blast near a ruling People’s Democratic Party campaign rally in Suleja, near the capital of Abuja, left at least fourteen people dead. In the North, members of radical Islamic sect, Boko Haram, continued their rampage against the federal government, killing two police officers. Ethnic and religious violence also continues unabated near the Middle Belt city of Jos, where a family of five was killed in night time raids. On the campaign front, Goodluck Jonathan’s stop to opposition controlled Lagos was reportedly sparsely attended while opposition candidate Muhammadu Buhari’s campaign stop in Kaduna brought the city to a standstill.

A boy carrying his belongings passes a U.N. armoured vehicle as residents flee with their belongings after clashes between forces loyal to incumbent Laurent Gbagbo and his rival Alassane Ouattara in Abobo, Abidjan February 27, 2011. (Luc Gnago/Courtesy Reuters) As international attention and resources continue to be diverted to Libya, conditions are deteriorating in Cote d’Ivoire. Alongside outbreaks of fighting between Gbagbo forces and Ouattara supporters, Gbagbo and his supporters’ ire is being directed toward the UN. In one incident, Gbagbo supporters kidnapped U.N.staff. In a separate one, Gbagbo forces fired on and successfully prevented U.N. staff from investigating claims that Belarus had shipped attack helicopters to Cote d’Ivoire, breaking the arms embargo. Without the U.N., who has so far refused to leave despite demands from Gbagbo, Ouattara would likely leave Abidjan for the north of the country and Cote d’Ivoire would split. The question is how much violence directed at it can the United Nations stomach?

Residents flee after a clash between soldiers and supporters of Ivorian presidential claiment Alassane Ouattara in the Abobo area of Abidjan February 23, 2011. (Luc Gnago/Courtesy Reuters) As Libya erupts into civil war, so, too, does Cote d’Ivoire. Yesterday, for the first time, military units controlled by the rival Ivorian presidents, Laurent Gbagbo and Alassane Ouattara, fought in the streets of Abidjan. At the same time, Ouattara’s military, the Forces Nouvelles, occupied a few small, non-strategic villages that have been under the control of Gbagbo, thereby breaching the ceasefire line that emerged out of the last round of civil war. Gbagbo and Ouattara’s rival governments remain in Abidjan, at least for the time being, though the city is under the former’s control and the latter is dependent on the protection of UN forces. Should Ouattara’s government evacuate to its traditional stronghold of Bouake in the north, the country would be split in two, with almost certainly the resumption of full-scale civil war. Once the most developed country in West Africa, Cote d’Ivoire today is bitterly divided between “indigenes” (mostly Christian or animist) and “settlers” (mostly Muslim), with the former predominate in the southern, more developed part of the country, and the latter in the north. There are also numerous cross-cutting ethnic divisions. A civil war that started a decade ago has never been resolved. Gbagbo presents himself as the champion of the “indigenes,” and Ouattara of the “settlers.” The November presidential elections, far from  reuniting Cote d’Ivoire, have exacerbated existing divisions. While not perfect, the elections were regarded as credible by the international community, and Ouattara won. Nevertheless, Gbagbo has not budged, and he continues to draw on important sources of domestic strength. Thus far the African Union, the Economic Community of West African States, and sanctions from the principal Western countries have been insufficient to force Gbagbo out. The Ivorian experience sets a poor example for the numerous elections taking place in Africa this year, ranging from Nigeria to Zimbabwe. If Gbagbo can remain in power with significant domestic support in a badly divided country, other incumbent losers in presidential elections may be tempted to follow the same playbook.

Workers gather bags of cocoa at the port of Abidjan January 17, 2011. (Luc Gnago/Courtesy Reuters) Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain, and Iran have pushed Cote d’Ivoire off the front page. However, the election crisis is far from resolved, and the impasse is proving increasingly detrimental to the lives of ordinary Ivorians. UNHCR estimates thirty-five thousand internally displaced persons (IDPs) and has registered thirty-eight thousand refugees who have fled to neighboring Liberia. At least four major international banks have put a temporary stop to their operations in Abidjan, and recent reports also indicate long lines at ATMs as many Ivorians prepare to withdraw cash from their accounts. The run on the banks is bound to have a negative impact on commerce and increase the hardship for Cote d’Ivoire’s city dwellers.

Earlier this week I blogged about the African leadership’s fracturing unity over how to address the political stalemate in Cote d’Ivoire. Today, this became increasingly apparent, as South Africa now has a warship anchored off the coast of Cote d’Ivoire. While the ship ostensibly provides a place for future negotiations, ECOWAS perceives the action as an indirect effort to undermine its policy and keep Gbagbo in power. With seventeen or eighteen elections across Africa this year, the resolution of Cote d’Ivoire’s impasse matters.

Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, Equatorial Guinea's President and new African Union (AU) Chairman, speaks during a news conference at the closing ceremony of the 16th African Union Summit, in Ethiopia's capital Addis Ababa, January 31, 2011. (Thomas Mukoya/Courtesy Reuters) The appointment of Equatorial Guinea president Teodoro Obiang as chairman of the African Union will likely hinder theAU’s ability to resolve the crisis in Cote d’Ivoire. Obiang, in power since 1979, has regularly been accused of corruption, election rigging, and human rights abuses. In November 2010, French courts opened investigations into his personal wealth, and the U.S. Senate issued a report early last year, “Keeping Foreign Corruption Out of the United States,” that includes a detailed case study on Obiang’s son’s suspected money laundering in the United States. The shift of AU leadership comes at a time when the unity among African leaders has also begun to fracture. Despite ECOWAS’ insistence that challenger Alassane Ouattara was the electoral victor in Cote d’Ivoire and early threats of military intervention from neighboring countries, Ghana and Nigeria have both backed away from the direct use of force. In southern and eastern Africa, South African president Jacob Zuma and Ugandan president Yoweri Museveni, supported by Angolan president José Eduardo dos Santos, have called for an investigation into the electoral results, which appears to be underway. Reports have also surfaced that Zimbabwe supplied arms to Gbagbo near the end of 2010. In the meantime, Cote d’Ivoire’s stalemate will continue with the accompanying violence and economic decline. h/t to Asch Harwood.

Foreign Policy is carrying an open letter on the crisis in Cote d’Ivoire signed by a large group of experts on West Africa. “Laurent Gbagbo is clinging to power after rejecting the results of the presidential elections, as declared by the Independent Electoral Commission, certified by the UN, and recognized by the international community, designating Alassane Ouattara as the clear winner. There is now a real risk that the situation will escalate into civil war. In pro-opposition neighborhoods of Abidjan, numerous individuals have disappeared in the wake of operations by security forces loyal to Laurent Gbagbo. News reports have shown corpses lying in the streets, while morgues have refused to release the bodies of those killed to their families. Converging accounts have led the UN to suspect the existence of mass graves and the incineration of bodies, but Gbabgo’s security forces have prevented investigations of the alleged sites. Outside Abidjan, particularly in the western region, NGOs are reporting incidents of serious violence against the civilian population.” Read the whole thing here.