Ivory Coast

Members of Ivory Coast's Young Patriots youth movement take part in a demonstration to show support for incumbent leader Laurent Gbagbo near the U.S. embassy in Abidjan January 25, 2011. (Thierry Gouegnon/Courtesy Reuters) Human Rights Watch researchers spoke with more than 100 victims of, and witnesses to, the violence, including killings by militiamen with bricks and clubs, and sexual assaults in front of family members. Witnesses described seeing family members or neighbors dragged from their homes, mosques, restaurants, or the street into waiting vehicles. Many were "disappeared," including some victims who were later found dead. While the international media has referenced increasing violence in Cote d’Ivoire following the disputed elections between incumbent president Laurent Gbagbo and Alassane Ouattara, details have been sparse. Human Rights Watch changes that with the release of its preliminary investigation of post-electoral violence. As suspected, HRW reports that much of the violence has been perpetrated by forces loyal to Gbagbo against Ouattara supporters. And in many cases, attackers have made it abundantly clear to their victims that intimidation is the goal, with statements such as “Go tell Alassane it was us who did this to you.” Read the whole thing here.

A U. N. Senegalese peacekeeper looks on during the visit of Alain Le Roy (not pictured), under-secretary-general for Peacekeeping Operations at the United Nations at the Golf Hotel, headquarters of Alassane Ouattara, in Abidjan December 27, 2010. (Thierry Gouegnon/Courtesy Reuters) Russian reluctance to support the French drafted United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution that would enlarge the UNOCI force in Cote d’Ivoire will probably be overcome by further watering-down of the text. The resolution under consideration would increase the size of the UN troop contingent by 2,000. However, the reality is that 12,000 UN troops can no more maintain order in Cote d’Ivoire than the 10,000 who are already there. The significance of the UN vote – when it happens – is that the UNSC is yet again going on record that Gbagbo must go. Nevertheless, Russia’s insistence that the mention of Ouattara that was in the initial draft be deleted is an indicator of Moscow’s reluctance to be drawn into the internal affairs of Cote d’Ivoire.  It is the financial sanctions that are likely to bite more than UNSC actions. However, Adam Nossiter reports that Gbagbo is already circumventing them in a variety of ways, including pressure on cocoa producers to pay in advance export taxes and by what amounts to forced loans.

While the international community and African regional organizations are united in their determination that Mr. Gbagbo must go, outside opinion has only limited relevance inside a fractured Ivory Coast. The fear must be of a resumption of the country’s destructive 2002 civil war that severely damaged the economy; hitherto Francophone West Africa’s most successful. From my oped in today’s International Herald Tribune. Read the rest here.

The standoff continues between Laurent Gbagbo and Alassane Ouattara in the aftermath of the apparent failure of the three heads of state from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the Kenyan prime minister to convince Gbagbo to leave. Though he has significant Ivorian support, the army remains loyal, and he can count on his thugs, the Young Patriots, Gbagbo is isolated internationally. Ouattara supporters are urging outside military intervention to get Gbagbo out, a call that has at least some resonance in the region. But military intervention by ECOWAS seems increasingly unlikely as recognition spreads that it could precipitate a bloody civil war. Gbagbo has now sent a delegation to Abuja, ECOWAS headquarters and the capital of Nigeria, to urge a "non-military" solution. A delegation spokesman returned to the theme of blaming France, especially President Nicholas Sarkozy of authoring the crisis as part of the former colonial power’s effort to "re-colonize" Cote d’Ivoire. The delegation’s visit looks like vintage Gbagbo tactics: delay and obfuscation. Will Gbagbo next be calling for "powersharing" so that he can hang on?

ECOMOG soldiers stand ready to welcome French troops in Tiebissoude on February 18, 2003. (Luc Gnago/ courtesy Reuters) The international community, led by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), is raising the possibility of foreign intervention to break the seeming deadlock in Cote d’Ivoire between Laurent Gbagbo and Alassane Ouattara. Outside the country, there is unanimity that Ouattara is the legally elected president, and that Gbagbo must go. However, Gbagbo enjoys substantial support within Cote d’Ivoire, based on religion, ethnicity, and his skillful use of repression. Using his position, Gbagbo is credibly threatening civil war, including threats against citizens of other West African states residing in Cote d’Ivoire, such as Burkinabes and Nigerians, if ECOWAS seeks to displace him by force. The Nigerian community, for one, takes this threat seriously and has publicly urged Abuja to remain neutral in the Cote d’Ivoire crisis. To bolster his position, Gbagbo has also generated significant “indigenous” antipathy against “immigrants” from other West African states that are associated with Ouattara. (Many of them in fact were born in Cote d’Ivoire.) His spokesperson and the press that supports him are raising the specter that outside intervention is a “plot” orchestrated by France or the United States to get him out. His popular strength is illustrated by yesterday’s general strike, organized by Ouattara’s supporters. The strike was universally observed in Bouake, Ouattara’s territory, not at all in parts of the country favorable to Gbagbo, and only sporadically in Abidjan. Outside military intervention risks igniting a civil war with the possibility of massacres of foreigners. In addition, as some thoughtful Nigerian press commentary is noting, previous ECOWAS interventions in Sierra Leone and Liberia lasted a long time and may have prolonged the conflict. For the international community, the principle with respect to Cote d’Ivoire should be first ’do no harm,’ with recognition that outsiders will have little impact over what develops. The Obama administration should be cautious about encouraging outside military intervention as a solution to the current standoff. (Photo: Luc Gnago/ courtesy Reuters)

The U.S. Department of State has ordered all non-essential employees of the American Embassy in Abidjan to leave the country, and has curtailed consular functions except emergency services for U.S. citizens. Sending home non-essential personnel is a step the Department does not take lightly. Not only does it disrupt embassy operations, it often poses personal hardship on embassy employees who must stay behind separated from their families. Once the Department has ordered non-essential personnel to leave, they are usually allowed to return only after their security can be ensured. And that can take a long time. That the Department of State has taken this step is another sign of the serious possibility of increased bloodshed and is part of the context for the UN Security Council resolution prolonging the mandate of UN peacekeeping forces in Cote d’Ivoire despite opposition from Gbagbo. (Photo: Luc Gnago/ courtesy Reuters)

Put together, all these events have effectively dashed the initial hopes for the deepening and broadening of the democratic space in Africa. Says Alexactus T. Kaure today in the Namibian about the recent failure of the electoral process in a number of African states. Nowhere is his point more obvious than the current electoral crisis in Cote d’Ivoire. The failure of the elections in Cote d’Ivoire illustrates how little leverage the international community has. Even though elections were credible Gbagbo has defied the results and international opinion, and held onto power. The international community with remarkable unanimity has condemned Gbagbo. The United States and others are considering sanctions. African organizations--the Afircan Union and ECOWAS—have roundly condemned Gbagbo’s hijacking of the political process. Various African governments have done the same. But there is little that the international community can actually do. UN Security Council approaches are stymied by the Russian policy of keeping the UN out of electoral matters. And it is difficult to see how international sanctions can dislodge Gbagbo. In the meantime, there are two governments in Cote d’Ivoire--Gbagbo and Ouattara. Each has a military force and the threat of the resumption of the civil war is becoming greater.

A couple of things: If you are curious, yes, I am watching  the ongoing Halliburton case in Nigeria that reportedly involves former vice president Dick Cheney. However, before I weigh in on how serious the situation is,  we need to see if Cheney is in fact charged, and if he is, what the nature of those charges are. On the Delta, in an earlier blog post, I had questioned whether the Joint Task Force had learned its lesson conducting operations around civilians. However, with reports of major causalities and civilian displacement, it does not appear so. I have long been concerned that indiscriminate military activity could further radicalize the civilian population. That danger seems even greater now. On Cote d’Ivoire, as of now, Gbagbo has made Ivoirian elections a farce. Foreign observers have reported that in fact the elections were credible. Nevertheless, it is unlikely that the U.S., France and other western states will go beyond rhetoric in responding to the results. In the past, Nigeria has lead West Africa’s response to illegal seizure of power. However, with a weak government, distracted by violence in the  Delta and upcoming elections, Nigeria is unlikely to resume that role. Hence, should the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) seek to intervene, it will be operating without the leadership of its strongest member. These are dark days for democracy. (Photo: Joshua Roberts /courtesy Reuters)

Incumbent president Laurent Gbagbo’s delay in releasing the results of Sunday’s presidential runoff election in Cote’ d’Ivoire, a minion’s contemptuous destruction on television  of ballot results from certain northern parts of the country, and a government-imposed curfew in Abidjan enforced by armed toughs have the look of an incipient Gbagbo coup. Foreign  observers have reported that Sunday’s runoff elections went well. So, too, did the October 31 elections, where no candidate received the required fifty percent of the vote, and which required a runoff between the Christian and longtime ruler Gbagbo and his rival Alassane Ouattara, a Muslim associated with the north.   Gbagbo’s actions over the past few days look like he fears Ouattara won a majority of the popular vote, and so he is trying to set aside the election results.  If he does, the stage is set for Cote d’Ivoire to split de facto if not de jure into two states, a southern one centered around Abidjan--predominately Christian, the center of what remains of a modern economy and ruled by Gbagbo-- and a poorer northern one, primarily Muslim with close links to neighboring states to the north.  If the country splits, Gbagbo does not appear to have sufficient military power to end the north’s secession.  Any secession scenario is bad news as it  likely precludes Cote’ d’Ivoire’s recovery as the entrepot of francophone West Africa. (Photo: Thierry Gouegnon/courtesy Reuters)