Politics and Government

State and Local Governments (U.S.)

  • State and Local Governments (U.S.)
    Understanding the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act
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    Heidi Crebo-Rediker, adjunct senior fellow at CFR, will discuss the provisions in the bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) and implications for infrastructure projects at the state and municipal level. Albert Cho, senior vice president and chief strategy and digital officer at Xylem, will discuss how money is allocated to water infrastructure in the IIJA. FASKIANOS: Welcome to the Council on Foreign Relations State and Local Officials Webinar. I’m Irina Faskianos, vice president for the National Program and Outreach here at CFR. We’re delighted to have participants from forty-eight states and U.S. territories joining us today. Thank you for taking the time to be with us. This discussion is on the record. As you know, CFR is an independent and nonpartisan membership organization, think tank, and publisher focusing on U.S. foreign policy. CFR is also the publisher of Foreign Affairs magazine. Through our State and Local Officials initiative we serve as a resource on international issues affecting the priorities and agendas of state and local governance by providing analysis on a wide range of policy topics. We are pleased to have Heidi Crebo-Rediker and Albert Cho with us today. We’ve shared highlights from both of their bios, but I will give you a brief overview. Heidi Crebo-Rediker is an adjunct senior fellow at CFR and a partner at International Capital Strategies. Prior to coming to CFR, she served as the U.S. Department of State’s first chief economist. Ms. Crebo-Rediker was also the chief of international finance and economics for the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations. Albert Cho is the senior vice president and chief strategy & digital officer at Xylem, where he’s responsible for efforts to digitize water infrastructure. Previously he was the senior advisor to the deputy secretary of the U.S. Department of State, and a White House fellow serving on the secretary of state’s policy planning staff. Mr. Cho serves on the board of directors for the U.S. Water Alliance and the Canadian Water Network. So thank you both for being with us. Heidi, let’s begin with you to give us an overview of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, and what was—what’s in it, what’s not, and metrics that the group should be looking for. CREBO-REDIKER: So, first of all, thank you, Irina, so much for inviting us both to come and speak today. When we’ve talked about infrastructure in the past, it’s always been, like, we have to do this—like a rallying cry. And even though a lot of the media attention has been on Build Back Better, you know, it overshadows the fact that we had a major victory—bipartisan victory in getting the 1.2 trillion (dollar) bipartisan infrastructure investment bill passed. And it includes Highway Trust Fund funding, but also 550 billion (dollars) in new infrastructure spending. And I guess what we’re here to talk about today is, you know, not just that this was monumental, but it’s really implementation time. So the passing of the law was just the start. It’s not meant to be a stimulus bill. It’s actually investment. It’s a—you know, it’s a marathon, not a sprint. And it’s really supposed to solve for a lot of the infrastructure deficit that we’ve had from a lack of investment over the course of the past several decades. So on the federal side they’re, you know, working on standing up a number of new programs that are addressing different policy issues. And Al’s going to go into more detail on water specifically. But on the state and local level, because so much infrastructure is owned and operated, looking at whether you are going to repair, renew, hire—you know, hire workers in a time of labor shortage, and still with the restrictions of COVID and some supply chain issues around construction of goods and materials. It’s a good time to gather this group together, because we’d like to learn from you as well. So in this I think we’ve widened the definition of infrastructure and looked at really expanding some of the objectives, in particular focusing on resilience, on climate and cyber resilience, looking at issues of equity in infrastructure investments. We put a huge—there’s a huge amount of funding in energy, money to upgrade the grid and transmission lines. And we’ve had a lot of creativity in the private sector, in state and local governments, and investment in new energy sources, clean energy sources, so that having a grid that is able to actually take on some of the new types of energy that’s becoming available is actually—it’s a critical part of it. It’s not enough funding. We have about seventy-five billion (dollars) that we’ve seen in the energy infrastructure sector. And I think we’re going to see—you know, we’re going to see the need for a great deal more in terms of whether resilience, figuring how to protect, again, from cyber threats. And then in addition we have a significant amount that’s gone to broadband. So we have—water is a big part of this. Transportation and traditional roads and bridges are really the bulk of where the infrastructure funding is targeted. But I think there are some really interesting new areas that have opened up questions about how we think about infrastructure broadly. And so I will—I’ll stop with that as sort of the thirty-thousand-foot, and talk a little bit more about what I think was missing and what we could do next time around on a bipartisan basis, and also some of the metrics that we need to look at to see if this is actually—if this is enough, and how we measure success. FASKIANOS: Great. Thank you. Should we turn to Al, and then we’ll dig deeper? CHO: Sure. I’d be happy to dive in. And just wanted to say thank you so much to you, Irina, and Heidi, and for everyone who’s here for tuning in to talk about infrastructure, which is my favorite subject. I’m going to put up a couple of pages, because I know we are probably all enjoying a couple of different things at the same time on Zoom, but some pictures can sometimes help tell the story. So just by way of introduction—can everyone see my screen? FASKIANOS: It looks good. CHO: Very good. So I’m going to talk about renewing America’s water infrastructure. And I’m just going to start briefly with a quick introduction. My name is Al Cho. I’m Xylem’s chief strategy and digital officer. In a previous life I did work with Heidi at the State Department and was a term member at CFR. I’m really glad to see that we’re doing some more domestic work today, because Xylem’s a U.S.-based public company and we focus on water technologies that help eliminate water as a constraint to health sustainability and prosperity. We’re also really proud to be a leader in sustainability, and most recently we were recognized by Newsweek as being one of America’s top twenty responsible companies. And so I’m glad to be with you today. Now, I’m going to give you quick overview on three topics about water, the strategic state of the water sector, what’s in the infrastructure bill, and what are some of the key policy issues for state and local government. So with that, I’m going to go to the next page. And I’m going to assume that not everyone on this call is a water professional, and just start with the basics around water infrastructure and managing the cycle of water. We all know water is essential to life. What we may not realize is that we’re constantly surrounded by water infrastructure, whether we know it or not, including the abstraction and treatment of drinking water, its distribution through pipes and meters to consumers. We often use the water and turn it into wastewater in various ways. And that wastewater gets collected in sewage pipes and taken to treatment plants or sewage tanks, septic tanks, discharged into the watersheds, where it then becomes available for other use. You know, what you might not think about, though, is water is very heavy to lift, and it’s difficult to contain. And that makes water the most capital-intensive utility service. It’s also typically the single biggest municipal energy consumer, because it takes a lot of water to pump the water and to blow bubbles through the sewage to eliminate all the nutrients that are in it. And finally, it’s the one with the most system losses because it’s very difficult to assess to what’s happening in water infrastructure. It’s buried. It’s expensive to dig up to observe or to repair it. And so there are a lot of challenges with the infrastructure that we’ve built. And so in terms of vital signs, the strategic situation is not great. The American Society of Civil Engineers publishes a regular report card, and it gives water infrastructure in America bad grades. Because in a lot of parts of the country the water infrastructure is actually close to failing. Pipes are leaking 20 to 30 percent of their water before it reaches customers. Water mains break every two minutes in the U.S. And billions of gallons of sewage, untreated, are released into the natural environment from combined sewer overflows every year. And those things are met by a crisis of confidence and inequality in a lot of parts of the country, where 60 million Americans, for example, just won’t drink their tap water. That’s not a great signal of healthy water infrastructure. So how did we get here? The reality is that after an initial bout of federal funding to build up treatment plants after the passage of the Clean Water Act and the Safe Drinking Water Act, all of that infrastructure is in the ground then deteriorating, every year accumulating more and more of the capital investment gap that the U.S. Water Alliance estimated at about $100 billion every year. Meanwhile, the federal investment in water infrastructure has dried up, collapsing from about 31 percent of total capital and O&M spending in 1977 to just about 4 percent in 2017. So there have been some pretty big shifts that have led to a pretty big deferred maintenance and investment gap in water. And at the same time, in the face of declining funding, there have been huge legacy issues as well as emerging concerns that require new investment. Whether that’s the painful legacy of lead service lines in homes and schools, poisonous forever-chemicals that we’re learning more about called PFAS, or rising water stress driven by climate change and economic development, particularly in the Western United States. But other water issues related to resilience, like flooding in New Jersey, where I know Irina is, those are all big challenges that we have to deal with every single day. And it’s led us to an unsustainable equilibrium that hopefully the money in this jobs act will be able to help us break out of. And so I want to offer a strategic framework before I go into the details of the infrastructure investment. It’s something I call the trilemma for water policy management. A trilemma is a situation where you want three things, but you can only have two. And Heidi will be familiar with that from the trilemma in international macroeconomics, but this one’s about water policy. So this sector has three needs. First, we need resilient water infrastructure the functions well and reliably 24/7 because people need water constantly, whether it’s hospitals, or schools, or restaurants. And that takes investment. Second, process stability. Water, as my friend George Hawkins, who used to run D.C. Water likes to say, is the only utility whose products we put inside our bodies. So it’s highly regulated and the physical and human infrastructure is hard to adapt. This isn’t a sector where we encourage a lot of kind of fun experimentation because it really matters that we get it right. And so it’s not an area where process changes are welcome for change’s sake. And that leads to a desire for process stability and using solutions that we know have worked for decades. The third good is affordability. Studies show that water and wastewater rates can consume up to 20 percent of the discretionary income of 20 percent of American households. So it’s not very popular to increase rates, particularly where we have large populations of people on low or fixed incomes. And as you’ve seen in the previous slides, relying on local revenue mobilization to fund infrastructure has produced a pretty staggering investment deficit in water. And so the essence of the problem is that you want these three things, and you can’t have all of them. You can’t have resilient and affordable infrastructure without significantly improving the productivity and efficiency of investment in that infrastructure. And that requires challenging what we’ve been doing in the past. Throwing more money at the problem without changing how we do water won’t fix the issue. And so we have to take advantage of this once-in-a-generation infrastructure funding opportunity to drive a major technological improvement that ensures the long-term viability of water infrastructure, applying 21st century technologies to this enduring problem. And so to make this really concrete, I want to give you the example of South Bend, Indiana. If you know the secretary of transportation used to be the mayor there. And South Bend is on the St. Joseph River. It experienced flooding and combined sewer overflows that led to a pretty significant federal consent decree. Now, if any of you live in communities with flooding and sewage flooding, the traditional engineering approach is to build a giant sewage tunnel that uses kind of once every couple of months during peak periods to contain overflows. In South Bend, that investment was going to cost a billion dollars, which is $10,000 for every person in a city where the per capita income is about 20k. If you ever heard Secretary Pete—Secretary Buttigieg talk about smart sewers, you’ll know that the city was able to solve this problem better with data, by applying sensors and software that helped the city make better use of the existing sewage capacity in real time. And so during a period when rainfall nearly doubled over ten years, the city managed to cut sewage overflows in half without building that tunnel, saving over $400 million through an amended federal consent decree by better operating the infrastructure they already had, using new technology. These are the kinds of investments that we need to be making with the jobs act, investments that give us reliability and resilience while making infrastructure permanently more efficient. And so what I want to do now is talk us through the provisions of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act in water. They include, principally, over $60 billion in new funding for water infrastructure, including over 60 billion—fifty billion (dollars) that’s headed to EPA to address core infrastructure funding, lead service line replacement, and emerging contaminants, as well as $8 billion headed largely to interior to address the specific challenges of western water. Now, most of that funding will go through EPA. And the key message here is that 80 percent of the EPA money will flow through what are called state revolving funds, which are financial entities operated at the state level to disperse long-term low-interest funding loans and, in some cases, grants to finance water infrastructure capital improvements. That funding represents a sixfold increase in recent appropriations to those revolving funds and a major increase in the grant proportion that states are authorized to provide, especially for underserved communities. Now, that money is allocated to states via an allocation formula. And specific details of those allocations are available on the EPA website. The state revolving fund administrators in each of your states have significant latitude in awarding the funds to eligible applicants based on a state intended use plan that lays out kind of policies and priorities, which is reviewed with the EPA. And as we think about those funds, and I cut that off at D.C., but the full list is available on the web, one operational challenge that we can see right now is the need to significantly ramp up capacity at the state level in order to handle the flow of applications to state revolving funds. As you can see in this chart, there’s a lot of steps in this process around concepts, intended use plan prioritization, public hearings, environmental impact reviews, reviewing and approving applications. And in the IIJA there’s money earmarked for technical assistance and administration. And I know the EPA right now is working with states to shape a technical assistance agenda that will help, you know, deal with the scale-up and influx in demand. But the other thing to bear in mind in terms of implementation considerations is that historically these state revolving funds have not always been reaching all the communities that can use their support. In some states, and maybe this is true in yours, SRF funds have not been fully expended for many years. In fact, a recent analysis of funding data in the drinking water state revolving fund showed that only 7 percent of systems, representing less than a third of the total population of the U.S., has made use of SRF funding in the last decade, with the Dakotas leading the way around 20 percent of systems, and then the rest of the states in the country being well below that. Part of the challenge is the extreme fragmentation of the water sector. There are over fifty thousand water utilities and around twenty thousand more wastewater and storm water utilities compared to, like, three thousand electric utilities and cooperatives. And so that means that a lot of them are very small and will likely need support to make use of new funds. So I’m going to wrap up there with a few policy considerations and implementation considerations. On the policy side, the tension that exists here is that the money is federally appropriated and there are some very clear federal policy priorities around how the money should be used—for things like environmental justice, made in America provisions, and getting the money out the door pretty quickly. But the states also have authority over the state revolving funds that 80 percent of the money is going to go through, thought there are some levers that the federal government has to influence how states ultimately spend the money. So, first, in the environmental justice area, the White House has laid out a Justice40 agenda, with the objectives that 40 percent of the overall benefits of federal investment in climate and clean energy will go to disadvantaged communities. There are a number of detailed provisions in the legislation here relating to small and disadvantaged communities and water. And I would expect dialogue with the EPA around how state intended use plans for the SRFs reflect the needs of small and disadvantaged communities. A second policy theme is that there’s going to be a tension between shovel-ready and shovel-worthy projects. There’s going to be pressure to get money out the door quickly to demonstrate benefits and traction from infrastructure investment, especially with respect to job creation. And in the past, that’s led some utilities—water utilities in particular—to use the funds to support projects that are shovel ready to move quickly versus really taking the time to shape adoption of solutions, including those that leverage better technology to drive greater economic and environmental impact. States and local governments have an important role to play here in guiding the investment in directions that lead to longer-term sustainability, because while the funds today will finance capital expenses, communities will be on the hook for longer-term operations and maintenance. And finally, there are much stronger domestic content requirements as part of the made America—made in America chapter in the legislation, which requires that all inputs used in federally supported projects be manufactured in America. Speaking as someone who’s followed the water sector very closely for the last decade, without a lot more flexibility than is currently in the law that policy runs the risk of increasing costs and causing significant project delay because very broad categories of technology in the water sector use global supply chains that are not currently available in the United States and would take a lot of time to develop. And so there is further guidance coming in from OMD and EPA that over the coming sixty days. It’s just something to watch from an implementation perspective. And that’s where I’d start, on the bottom right of this page. Those domestic content requirements typically create significant documentation and proof burdens for every one of the thousands of components used in water projects. And your SRFs will need to be prepared to address those documentation burdens. Finally, as I mentioned, the SRFs will also have to be prepared to take full advantage of technical assistance resources to scale up the delivery of funds. And we’ll see more guidance from all of these funds from OMB and the White House and the EPA in the next sixty days or so. I’ll end with just one last slide. If this is a topic on water that you guys want to learn more about, we’re hosting a webinar focused on highlighting assistance resources for communities to support state and local governments on implementing this funding in small, disadvantaged communities. And so let us know if you’re interested in further information on that. But with that, I’ll stop and hand it back over to Heidi and to Irina. CREBO-REDIKER: So just—if I can jump in—Al, you know, you spoke to the fact that this is—that this is a significant amount of money. One of the targets of the funding for water was to achieve the elimination of lead pipes in America. Is this a substantial, you know, way to get there? Or are we going to be short funds? And if so, how do we make up for achieving that goal? CHO: Yeah, this is a very, very large down payment in the money that’s going to be needed to address the lead pipe issue in the United States. The numbers that I’ve seen suggest that the billions of dollars that have been appropriated for lead service line replacement in this tranche of funding is not enough to fully address the issue. And so there will need to be, you know, further local mobilization of money and/or future infusions of funds in order to kind of get to the point of zero lead service line levels in the United States. There is more money, for example, in some of the reconciliation bill that is under discussion today. And there will be likely future asks for appropriations around this issue. But as of right now, it doesn’t look like there’s enough money to fully address the issue. The one thing I would say from a technology perspective is that it’s important to look at how to comply in as efficient a way as possible. And so there’s some startups and technology firms that are doing really good work and using machine learning to pinpoint—with pinpoint accuracy predict which locations actually have lead service lines to guide prioritization of where municipalities direct construction funding first so that you’re not kind of going all over the place digging up pipes that aren’t lead, because in many cases those inventories don’t exist. But actually targeting those neighborhoods first that have the highest likelihood of having a very high concentration of lead pipes. CREBO-REDIKER: So you sort of almost—you preempted my next question, which is that there’s a lot of innovation that’s happening around both AI and ways to use big data to actually benefit infrastructure investment. And that’s in many parts of—you know, whether you’re looking at transportation, or energy efficiency. What do you see as being the most important breakthrough technologies, in addition to the one you just mentioned, that can help direct state and local communities to both attack the problem that is, you know, in the most—in the most reliable way? And also, how can you—are there funds available through the bipartisan infrastructure bill to actually have state and local governments afford the purchase or the use of those new technologies? Or is that something that would be outside of the scope? CHO: Those are great questions. In water specifically, you know, if we come back to the thesis that there’s a once-in-a-generation opportunity to invest in the next generation of water infrastructure, so we don’t end up in twenty years without another huge deferred maintenance gap, we have to spend the money that we have now to set ourselves up for a more sustainable—financially sustainable water infrastructure sector in the future. And a bit part of doing that—and this is I think where the water sector is headed—is investing in smarter technologies that eliminate waste, because there’s a tremendous amount of waste in how we approach asset management in the water sector, reactive maintenance in the water sector, and leakage and losses in the water sector. And so we’re spending a lot of money on things that we’re going to have to maintain that we don’t really need. In the bill, in think the opportunity is to set water utilities up for longer-term success by investing in three kinds of information technology assets. One is the foundational stuff, right? A lot of utilities today still don’t have the asset management capabilities to know where their assets are, to have them in GIS maps, to have kind of data centers that can store the information. And so there’s a lot of foundational capability building that needs to happen in water utilities. And I see a question in the chat. You can use ARPA money for that. And in terms of building out some of the licenses and capabilities that you need to capitalize in order to build those foundations, in-state intended use plans prioritizing smart asset management is a great foundational use of incremental funding for water utilities. A second area is cybersecurity. Water utilities have to be cybersecure if they’re going to take advantage of these technologies. There have been some examples in recent memory. You probably saw the incident in Florida where someone hacked into the system, tried to put sodium hypochlorite (ph), which is a chemical, into the water system. And luckily that was caught and nothing bad happened, right? But we’re seeing an increased kind of threat level on all critical infrastructure, of which water is one. And utilities have to get ready for the future. Whether they upgrade or whether they stay the same, there will be vulnerabilities. And cybersecurity should be a major source of investment. And to your point, Heidi, in the law there’s a lot of language about cybersecurity through the lens of resilience, where when we talk about the sustainability and resilience of infrastructure, cybersecurity is a really critical element of ensuring operational reliability, continuity, and resilience. And so that’s a major investment area, where if we don’t take advantage of this funding to go there, we’ll be leaving a big vulnerability. And the third area is—just as you mentioned—it is operational investments in areas like real-time sensing, digital twins of infrastructure that help manage assets more effectively. So in the South Bend example I gave you, they used sensors, built a digital twin, and were able to use optimal control to figure out where the sewage should flow because they knew how the system worked, using artificial intelligence. And we see more and more applications like that. Again, treatment plans being a great example, where, like, if you look at the picture behind me, wastewater treatment plants are one of the biggest municipal energy consumers because it takes so much energy to blow air through your sewage to make sure that the bacteria in the sewage can survive long enough to eat all of the chemicals that are in the sewage. And the problem is that most cities over-aerate their sewage, and you can save a significant amount of energy and money if you use sensors to figure out how much air is in the sewage and then use models and controls to optimize the performance of your treatment system. We’ve seen very significant improvements in energy consumption and cost. Those are the kinds of technologies that set us up better for the future. And, yes, you can use the funds to upgrade systems in that way. CREBO-REDIKER: So, just in terms of looking, I guess, more broadly outside of just the use of funds for water projects, there is a pretty big effort of dig—you know, dig once. If you’re going to dig—if you’re going to be, you know, upgrading a road or upgrading a sewage pipeline or water infrastructure, that you use the opportunity to bury transmission lines or to put—you know, extend broadband and cables, and basically—so you’re digging once and making the whole project multimodal, but more efficient. Do you see that in the way that the funding has been structured? Because sometime you can get very siloed—very siloed access to different types of infrastructure funding. Is that something that you’re looking at? And I guess there are some really good questions that are popping up in the Q&A that I hope we get to, because this is a very—this is an incredibly well-informed crowd that we have collected today. And so I think that their questions would probably be even more—you know, more insightful than mine. But I just would love to hear about the dig once. CHO: Yeah. I don’t think there’s a lot in the funding that enables or prevents cities from using the funding to dig once. But the reality is that there’s huge benefit if there is coordination at the state or county level around those kinds of projects. You know, let’s start with how much waste there is. So in terms of, for example, pipe replacement programs, EPA studies have demonstrated that a lot of money gets replaced—invested in replacing pipes that are still perfectly good, that aren’t likely to cause water main breaks. And so funding is spent on what are effectively less productive pipe replacement projects. There are a number of companies now that are looking at using, again, artificial intelligence to map out, first, where are the pipes that are most likely to fail? So that you can update pipe replacement programs and allocate needed funding just to those areas that actually need it. But the second order is those algorithms can also be used to incorporate and ingest where, for example, are other city departments already planning to dig? So the optimization function goes around creating clusters of projects that cost the lowest amount of money for the city. What is important there is that the different siloes in any organization are talking to each other. Often we found that that’s the hardest part in project management, is that, you know, multijurisdictional coordination or even multi-departmental coordination over getting engineering ops, roads, and sewers to work together is the hardest part of getting that kind of ideal win of dig once to happen. The law doesn’t really fix that issue. It doesn’t prevent better things from happening. But I do think there are now some data-oriented solutions that can enable city planners to make multi-departmental plans work in a way that didn’t exist five or ten years ago, to get a lot more out of the infrastructure funding that’s supplied. CREBO-REDIKER: So I think we have, Irina, there—do you want to—do you want to take over? I think we’ve reached the half-hour point. And I know that there are a lot of good questions. And actually in the past I’ve learned more from listening to some of the discussions on pilot projects and specific areas of concern or optimism from state and local officials. So I see there are a couple of questions in the—in the Q&A. But over to you. FASKIANOS: Great. And as Heidi—thank you, Heidi. And now we want to hear from all of you. And please share what’s happening in your communities and what you’re doing, because this is a forum to exchange ideas. Laura Dent has written a question but also raised her hand. So I’m going to go first to you, Laura. If you could just—you might want to revise it based on what you’ve heard. Q: OK. Well, Albert partially answered my question. I’m Laura Dent, on the city council in Harrisonburg, Virginia. We had planned in our city council to allocate some of the ARPA funding to the water and sewer projects that were put on hold because of the pandemic. And that’s part of the purpose of the ARPA funding, obviously. And then when we heard that the infrastructure act would include water and sewer, we put that aside to say maybe we should use that instead. However, my concern is then we’d have to apply to the state and go through a competitive process, versus being able to just decide for ourselves based on what our water guy requested. So my question was—I just wanted to elaborate some on my question of how would you navigate that overlap? How would you recommend which funding to go for what? CHO: Heidi, if you want to jump in, please do, otherwise I’m happy to take the question. CREBO-REDIKER: Please. This is right down your— CHO: So first, Laura, you’re lucky to live in Harrisonburg. I’m down the road in Woodstock. And love your—love your city. The question is a really good one, which is around what pots of money can be used for what and how to kind of differentiate between where they go. The nice thing about the first bucket is that you basically have immediate control over how you want to spend the money, as opposed to what’s going to be happening with the SRFs. There’s still a process that is going to take a couple of months to roll out in terms of the money being dispersed to the states, clear guidance being issued from, you know, EPA and OMB to, in this case, the Virginia state authorities that are responsible either for the state drinking water state revolving fund or for the clean water revolving fund. And they then are going to have to kind of put things on the list for the intended use plan, get that intended use plan agreed with the EPA. All of that can move very quickly and it could be seamless, but to your point it does require more steps in the process in order to get a line around whether that money’s going to be dispersed or not. And so I would say for things that are really urgent or that you don’t think will make it onto the list of the intended use plan at the state level, then that’s a great candidate for using more discretionary funding that you can apply to those things. Whereas if there are things that—as the state of Virginia kind of lays out its intended use plan priorities—that you think are really, really good candidates for moving their way up in the state intended use plan, then those projects might be better candidates for the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act money. That’s the kind of discussion where right now it’s probably best to have the discussion with the state revolving fund administrators. Virginia’s undergoing a change in government right now, and so some of those priorities may evolve. And they’re also probably still waiting for guidance from EPA around exactly how the federal guidance is going to impact the prioritization of projects within their own intended use plan. I don’t know if that answers your question, but some indicative principles. Q: Well, how long do you think EPA is going to take to come up with this guidance? Is there a set deadline? CHO: Everything I’ve heard is that the guidance will come out by the end of February. FASKIANOS: Great. So we’ve a question from Ellen Smith. I don’t believe that people’s reluctance to consume public water is due to actual poor water quality. There’s a great deal of marketing activity designed to undermine confidence in our public water in order to sell household water treatment systems and bottled water. Is there any possibility that the EPA will spend a tiny fraction of the funding to help people better understand water and be less susceptible to misinformation? CHO: That is a great question. I’m happy to take it, Heidi, unless you want to? CREBO-REDIKER: Absolutely over to you. CHO: So this is a great question. And I guess I have my own doubts about whether messaging from the EPA on this would be effective. Not because EPA’s not great and credible, but because some of the things that we’ve found is that the most credible spokespeople around water are actually local authorities and state authorities. There’s also a campaign which I would direct your attention to, if you haven’t been involved in it, called the Value of Water Campaign, which is a multi-stakeholder alliance of cities, of water trade associations, of private companies that are all kind of investing in helping Americans understand more about why, in particular, public water infrastructure is so important and so valuable. And so there’s a lot of annual polling, there’s media information, there are assets and resources that states can use to communicate the value of public water systems, the safety of public water systems, et cetera. The other are I might point you toward is the environmental policy innovation center is a think tank that runs an annual water data prize. And last year, the water data prize was about using innovation in house data is presented in the annually mandated consumer confidence reports that EPA mandates through the Safe Drinking Water Act, to improve how that presentation of information can be disseminated to people to improve their confidence in what public water actually has in it. And so some of the winners from that have made their platforms publicly available. And so if you’re interested in learning more about that it’s the Environmental Policy Innovation Center’s water data prize. FASKIANOS: Great. Thank you. And Ellen in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. We have a raised hand from Representative Nakamura in Hawaii. If you unmute yourself, that would be terrific. Q: Thank you. I’m calling from the state capitol in Honolulu, Hawaii. I’m a representative from the island of Kauai. I have a couple of questions. One is who approves—does EPA approve the state’s intended use plan? And if so, what is that process and what does that process involve? CHO: So, as I understand it, EPA certainly reviews the state intended use plan. I don’t want to speak out of school on the specific legal authorities here and whether that has to be approved or whether there’s just a process of review, but there’s definitely guidance provided by EPA on the IUPs, a dialogue that takes place, and a review. And then the state are able to go apply the funding according to the IUP that’s been reviewed by EPA. But I’ll have to get back to you on the specific legal pieces because I don’t want to say something that’s out of school. And I see your second question around how long that will take. You know, I think they are trying to move this as quickly as possible, but it takes as long as it takes the states to develop the intended use plans and then complete it with EPA, which is a non-answer as the answer. What will happen, again, is hopefully the guidance will come out at the end of February. The state will, you know, rack and stack the different projects and go through their process. And then I know that everyone at EPA right now that I’ve spoken to is hellbent on moving as quickly as possible, to be responsive to what the states come up with. And so that process will play out ideally over the course of 2022. FASKIANOS: Thank you. We have a written question from Mayor Jules Walters of West Linn. In the Pacific Northwest we are focused on earthquake resilience. All but one of our reservoirs in my suburb of Portland won’t withstand a moderate quake, let alone a much larger event that is anticipated. I see this as a capital project, but wondering if there are ways—examples of ways to apply technology as well to make us more resilient? CHO: Very good question. So I think there’s probably a couple of different ways to answer the question. The first is, I don’t know but I would imagine that the sustainability and resilience funding that is kind of a big policy thread through the bill would make this eligible for a number of state intended use plans. That’s a discussion to have with the state. The second is thinking about whether or not this particular thing would also be eligible for funding through the western water infrastructure money via Interior. And so it’s worth obviously having a conversation with Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, Army Corps, et cetera, around the money that they’re getting particularly around critical infrastructure resilience in the western U.S. The third thing I would say is that there are a lot of really interesting emerging solutions in the structural engineering industry around monitoring the impact of geological movements on concrete infrastructure, using LiDAR, using measurements of ground movement, height, shifts in the position of infrastructure relative to the ground and the water level. And they’re able—with pretty high resolution—able to see things often before they happen, which might improve the ability to respond in advance of things happening. And so if you look at that big dam release that happened in Brazil, or the Oroville situation in California, at least what these technology providers claim—and not being one of those providers, I can’t speak to it. But I’ve seen many of their presentations—that there were signals and patterns in the remote sensing data that was able to show an increasing amount of risk in the civil infrastructure because of movements in the ground. And so having any of that predictive information I think would help a community be more proactive rather than reactive in situations where there’s dams that could overwhelm a community. Whether or not that can be funded through these specific vehicles I think is a conversation with your state FASKIANOS: Thank you. And, Heidi, feel free to jump in at any point here. The next question is a written question from Mayor Diana Mahmud. She’s the mayor of South Pasadena, California. In California’s Central Valley many smaller underserved communities have had their wells run dry due to over-pumping by ag. Would this legislation help to fund construction of connecting pipe to larger water purveyors? CHO: That’s a great question. I think that’s a question about agriculture. Happy to answer it, but, Heidi, if you want to jump in as well, please do so. CREBO-REDIKER: So this is really—this is, in terms of all of the water infrastructure questions, I think we wanted to focus as much as possible on you while we have you. CHO: Super. So the question about over pumping in Central Valley for ag, making it harder for smaller communities to access water supplies, will the funding support interconnections? I think the answer is that, I feel very confident, it will, both because, you know, addressing the needs of small and underserved communities is a really big priority from an equity perspective for the California state government, but also for what’s embodied in the federal priorities. And so I cannot imagine a world in which a well-conceived project to increase the resilience and access of water in underserved communities in Central Valley would not be well supported by both the state drinking water SRF and the federal counterparts at EPA. That’s an area where—the webinar that I mentioned, in terms of assistance to communities who want to apply for that kind of funding, might be really helpful because organizations like RCAP, or Moonshot Missions, or DIGDEEP might be helpful in assisting your city in framing that application and getting the funding. But it’s a great question. FASKIANOS: A question from Bob Marsh, a councilmember in Maricopa, Arizona. Is anyone working on solving the western drought with something like a combination of coastal desalination plants coupled with a North American water grid to enable getting water from where it is to where it will need to be? CHO: That’s a fabulous question. And I grew up not far from Maricopa, so also jealous that you get to be out there, especially when it’s really cold outside here. So the question around the national water grid, I come back to the thesis that water is very heavy to move, right? And because water is very heavy to move, it becomes very energy intensive to move it. And when you have to move it and it’s energy intensive, it also becomes very expensive. And so both the capital and the operating costs of large-scale water transfer projects can be very expensive. And desalination, as a technology today, is also very energy intensive. It is often the best option in certain use cases, because if you’re coastal and you have a place to discharge the brine it’s a readily available source of water. What I see happening probably faster, from a policy and implementation perspective, are investments in wastewater recycling and industrial water recycling. To take used water that has some pollutants in it that are already getting treated for safe discharge into the natural environment and upgrading the quality of that water to the point where it can be injected either indirectly or directly into the municipal drinking water system. So by closing the loop, what you’re doing is effectively keeping water close to the source so you’re not having to move it as far away, and you’re basically increasing the number of cycles that the same water can be used in order to meet local needs. Those technologies are well-prove and well-established. The barrier has been principally public reaction to the idea of drinking formally used wastewater. But a lot of our public research has shown that there’s been a huge shift in the last five years in people’s willingness to incorporate water reuse into a municipal drinking water supply portfolio. I think that’s probably the nearest term solution for improving the resilience of water supply, particularly in the west. FASKIANOS: Representative Nakamura also has—I’m not sure if you’ve raised your hand again, or if you’ve never lowered it. Q: No, I had a second question relating to— FASKIANOS: Great, go ahead. Q: —whether the infrastructure funds can be used for new facilities to increase capacity, or whether it can only be used to fix existing facilities? CHO: So there are some restrictions in the authorizing language around the revolving funds around what kinds of facilities can be—can be funded. And I can get back to you with the details on that. But in terms of expanding capacity, that’s definitely an authorized application of the funding. I believe that certain new facilities also qualify, but I want to come back to you on the specifics, because there are some restrictions and exclusions in the authorizing language. FASKIANOS: We have a question—another question from Arizona. Do you think the technological improvements you describe will help convince the public that wastewater can be made safe for drinking and other tap uses? And what future do you predict for making this reuse common? That comes from Jon Thompson, city councilman of Sedona, Arizona. CHO: Gosh, everyone’s from such awesome places. It’s a great question. The technology is there to make it safe for wastewater to be recycled. But that wasn’t your question. The question is do you think the technology will help the public accept that? And I believe the answer to that question is yes. We did some polling about two and a half years ago in California, asking people the question about, you know, are you comfortable using municipal wastewater as a source of drinking water? We tried a couple of different scenarios to see how people responded. One interesting finding is that what you call it really matters. And what people really liked was the phrase “purified municipal water,” or “purified used water.” That phrase of purification as a description of the process really helped. The second thing that really helped is that when people were on the phone talking about their reaction to this, when people understood what the steps were, and they understood how much technology was there to prevent anything bad from coming into the system, the levels actually went up very significantly. And I don’t have the numbers in the back of my head, but it was well over 90 percent of people who were like, yeah, purified municipal reused water, that’s totally fine with me. And that’s a big shift over where it was a decade ago. FASKIANOS: Great. We have another written question, and people can raise their hands too. Emerson Gagnon. What kind of opportunities are there to direct some of these funds towards supporting transportation management associations? And he’s in Representative Steven Owen’s office in Massachusetts. CHO: I’m going to give that one to Heidi. (Laughs.) FASKIANOS: Heidi, I think that one is yours, yes. CREBO-REDIKER: So in terms of—in terms of the specifics of transportation management associations, I don’t—I don’t know. I know that the—I know that there—you know, as the funds, you know, are predominantly—you know, the first chunk are for Highway Trust Fund money that would go to more traditional roads, transportation, bridges. I think, you know, that is going to be—that’s going to be more standard—more standardized. The new funding that’s coming out for transportation is—you know, I don’t know specifically for transportation management associations. I will have to—I’ll have to come back to you on that. There’s a lot for highway and pedestrian safety. There’s a lot of funding, about 39 billion (dollars) for public transit and freight and airports, and ports and waterways. But, and quite a bit of new money for EV infrastructure. But not—I don’t think—I don’t know specifically for associations. FASKIANOS: OK. The next question is from Cristy Lenski, a councilmember in Snellville, Georgia. Would it be possible to use BIA funds to provide sewer connections to those city residents, neighborhoods that are currently on—from septic? Would you be able to apply through SRF for this project? CHO: So I’m not sure about BIA funds. But the—I’m not sure if that’s the Bureau of Indian Affairs, if that’s the question. But the general question around can you use funds to provide sewer connections to city neighborhoods that are currently on septic, can that be something eligible through the SRFs? Almost certainly, yes. And so those are the kinds of projects that the clean water state revolving fund is there for, and particularly for communities that are not well-served by a community sewer. That’s an allowable area within the fund. And again, particularly if these are underserved neighborhoods, that will be a priority for certainly the federal government and likely in the state intended use plan as well. The one thing I just want to emphasize from my earlier remarks as well is that the grant-funding component of the money that’s being allocated to the states is particularly targeted towards small and disadvantaged communities. And so that might be a helpful thing for you to know and look into as you discuss that with your state. FASKIANOS: Thank you. So we will be sending out a link to this webinar, the transcript, as well as information about the upcoming webinar that you mentioned. We have another question from Mayor Jules Walters. Let’s see. In the PNW, as in Texas, we learned how essential the power grid was to water infrastructure during last year’s ice storms. I’d love to know if there’s a good way to supply that power besides costly generators that rely on huge amounts of costly fuel. CHO: I can take part of that, and then maybe hand it over to Heidi, if you have something to add. Again, resilience is a huge deal. And so investments in infrastructure resilience are going to be a big-ticket item for this funding cycle, as Heidi mentioned. In water infrastructure in particular, I think, you know, there are certain parts of it that you can run off of battery, which is also pretty expensive right now. But, for example, there’s battery backup for major data systems that can be used to determine certain things about flow and consumption across the network. The second thing I would say is that more and more cities are also looking at can you take the energy that is embedded in wastewater and use it as recovery, and power generation that can be used by wastewater plants in order to become more resilient and self-contained? And so a lot of discussion right now is about taking sludge that comes out of wastewater treatment facilities and building anaerobic digesters that have kind of sludge fermentation tanks that create natural gas that can fuel power generation on-site at the treatment plant, so that if transmission grids go down there’s a secondary source of power that can be used to fuel ongoing treatment works, et cetera. So those are some ideas, but Heidi, you may have broader insights. CREBO-REDIKER: Just in terms—I mean, there’s a lot of creativity around the different types of backup systems or distributed generation that cities and towns are experimenting with right now. To the extent that the resiliency and infrastructure funding goes to specifically have backup energy sources—I mean, Texas is a very—is a specific case, because they’re not connected to the rest of the grid in the U.S. for backup. But the contingency preparations for flooding and extreme weather to be able to tackle backup systems for grids are definitely contemplated in the infrastructure bill. And I think there’s about 46 billion (dollars) that was allocated. So I would imagine that that is something that’s contemplated in this legislation. FASKIANOS: Heidi, Marvin Kenison, a commissioner in Juab County Utah, asked if any funds are being targeted to agriculture. CREBO-REDIKER: So I’m not sure in this specific legislation if there is—I mean, there’s—this is really—again, it’s focused primarily on transportation and—you know, basically transportation. Water is the next big—is the next allocation. Energy, power, and infrastructure. Broadband is enormous. You know, a whole different, you know, area to go into. Agriculture, I don’t think that it is—that it’s particularly—that it’s core to this particular legislation. FASKIANOS: Heidi, is there anything that you think—or, that was in the bill that got left on the cutting floor that you wish had been left in, or had been thought of it be put in? CREBO-REDIKER: So I think this is a huge down payment overall. I mean, if you look at the—at the amounts of federal funding going on, it’s impressive but it doesn’t actually—if you look at the American Society of Civil Engineers, they have the estimates of what you actually need to upgrade infrastructure across all different modes to sort of 21st century standards. It’s not—it hasn’t reached that amount, nor has it reached anywhere near that amount in the resilience category. I mean, burying utility lines would be enormously—you know, far, far—you know, far more than what’s been allocated in this particular bill. But it’s a really good first down payment. What I think—what was left on the cutting board at the last minute was a national infrastructure bank, which was actually part of this on a bipartisan basis up until the very last minute. Then it was—it was cut. I think this is a—you know, because this is a time-bound deployment of investment over the life of this law, you have the ability, you know, if you do have the bipartisan agreement there, to put something that is more institutional and have, you know, much longer-run way. Hopefully, next time—next time around, if you get another bite at the apple for bipartisan infrastructure that’ll be in there. FASKIANOS: Great. There’s one last question I want to try to squeeze in for you, Al, from Jason Haas in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. We have aged sewage infrastructure that will not be prepared to take on what we will see from climate change. Have you heard of local public resistance to making infrastructural improvements, such as storm water absorption, for example, turning a public park into a giant bio-swale? CHO: That’s a great question. And, you know, Milwaukee’s lucky. You have great municipal sewage leadership. And the specific answer to your question on community resistance to those infrastructure improvements, I’ll give you an example in South Bend. You know, they have this digital twin of sewage infrastructure and how it will behave under different aspects of storm water mitigation. And as part of the consent decree process that they went through in order to, you know, basically amend the consent decree with DOJ by using this digital twin, what they did was look through all of the different scenarios for new infrastructure improvements that could be made to contain storm water in the future, to look for the least-cost, most efficient set of options. And there were certain options that did have public resistance. So, you know, don’t put any pumping station in this park, right? Or don’t put a sewage retention base in this, you know, particular part of the city. And so, you know, basically the beauty of having a digital twin is that you can run thousands of simulations of different ways of, you know, where you put infrastructure and what impact that will have. And that allows you to have a little bit more of a fact-based discussion about alternatives, right? It could go here. It could go there, and then figure out what are the different ways that you can get to a stormwater mitigation solution that both meets the environmental objective, but also the cost objective, and the public kind of objective through consultation. So it is a common issue. It’s the natural not in my backyard issue of water infrastructure. But there are better tools now, I think, for dealing with it. FASKIANOS: Wonderful. Well, we are unfortunately out of time. But, again, we want to thank you both—Heidi Crebo-Rediker and Albert Cho—for this terrific hour. We appreciate your sharing your expertise with us. We will share the resources from this discussion. And Heidi and I are planning to focus in on—in future calls—on other parts of the bill. So we will do one that looks at the energy, et cetera, so that we can really have focused discussions. So tune in, or look out for those invitations. Again, I would like you to know that you can follow Albert Cho’s work on Twitter at @al_cho and Heidi is at—Heidi at @heidirediker. You can also follow State and Local Officials Initiative on Twitter at @CFR_Local. Please go to CFR.org, ForeignAffairs.com for more expertise and analysis. And you can email us with your comments, suggestions, anything else we can do to support the important work that you’re doing in your communities. Email [email protected]. Again, Heidi and Al, thank you very much for being with us. We really appreciate it. (END)
  • Climate Change
    Climate Resilience Strategies
    Play
    Alice C. Hill, CFR’s David M. Rubenstein senior fellow for energy and the environment, and Matthew J. Gonser, chief resilience officer and executive director of the Office of Climate Change, Sustainability, and Resiliency for the City and County of Honolulu, will discuss resilience policies to prepare for the effects of climate change and best practices for implementing them.    FASKIANOS: Welcome to the Council on Foreign Relations State and Local Officials webinar. I’m Irina Faskianos, vice president for the National Program and Outreach at CFR. We’re delighted to have participants from forty-three U.S. states and territories with us. We thank you for taking the time to join us. This discussion is on the record. As you know, CFR is an independent and nonpartisan membership organization, think tank, and publisher focusing on U.S. foreign policy. CFR is also the publisher of Foreign Affairs magazine. Through our State and Local Officials initiative, we serve as a resource on international issues affecting the priorities and agendas of state and local governments by providing analysis on a wide range of policy topics. We are pleased to have Alice Hill and Matthew Gonser with us to talk about climate resilience strategies. We’ve shared their bios with you so I will give just a few highlights. Alice Hill is a David M. Rubenstein Senior Fellow for Energy and Environment at CFR. Previously, Judge Hill served as special assistant to President Obama and senior director for resilience policy on the National Security Council. She’s also co-author of Building a Resilient Tomorrow and her latest book is called The Fight for Climate After COVID-19. So I commend that to all of you. Matthew Gonser is the executive director and chief resilience officer for the Office of Climate Change, Sustainability, and Resilience in the city and county of Honolulu, Hawaii. Before that, he served as the office’s coastal and water program manager for three years. Mr. Gonser is responsible for developing and launching Honolulu’s climate resilience initiatives including the Oahu Resilience Strategy Climate Action Plan and Climate Ready Oahu Adaptation Strategy. And Matt, you’re going to have to correct me on how to pronounce that correctly. (Laughs.) So, Alice, let’s turn, first, to you to talk about the trends that we’re seeing in extreme weather events. We just saw the horrible devastation that the tornadoes wreaked havoc in Kentucky, and what’s in the infrastructure bill in terms of helping with climate change, resilience, and adaptation? HILL: Well, thank you so much for having me here today, Irina, and I’m so delighted to join Matt on this important panel. I don’t think I have to tell anyone in the audience that 2021 has been a year full of disasters for the United States as well as across the globe. As you mentioned, we saw the really saddening pictures of the devastation of the tornadoes that had appeared in areas where, traditionally, we wouldn’t expect tornadoes, certainly, not at this time of year, and in some of these geographic regions. We also just yesterday had enormous wind events occurring in large swaths of the nation. Earlier in the year, Hurricane Ida caused $65 billion in damage and killed ninety-six people as it swept from Louisiana all the way up to New York. You’ll recall last February a cold snap in Texas caused massive power outages. A hundred and seventy two people lost their lives, 21 billion (dollars) in damage, and some people simply died of cold in their beds. The tornadoes that we’ve seen will likely be the nineteenth billion-dollar disaster chronicled by the National Association—National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration. NOAA has been keeping records since 1980 of billion-dollar disasters within the nation. That is a disaster that caused us at least a billion dollars’ worth of damage. 2021 will rank second, but we’ve just had additional damage from these windstorms so maybe it’ll rank first. But, certainly, it ranks second in the number of billion-dollar disasters since 1980 and it’s only coming in behind last year, which had twenty-two billion-dollar events. Unfortunately, the science is clear that worse is ahead because of human activity and, recently, in this summer a report was issued making clear—a consensus report—scientists across the globe agreed to and the report was agreed to—virtually agreed to, at least its executive summary, by virtually every nation in the world and that report found that, unequivocally, that human activity, agriculture, transportation, building, was causing harmful greenhouse gas emissions, carbon dioxide, primarily, to accumulate in the atmosphere, which is causing the Earth to heat up beyond pre-industrial times, and we have heated up about 1.2 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times and that’s what’s bringing us these types of events. Now, you can’t always find the fingerprints on every event. We don’t know if tornadoes and, particularly, these tornadoes were influenced by climate change. But scientists now can, essentially, determine how much different events are made worse by climate change and we know that heat events like we saw in the Pacific Northwest earlier this year and some increasing storm intensity are very closely tied to warming temperatures. Just yesterday news that we may have underestimated the amount of heating that’s already going on. The Arctic and the Antarctic, both polar regions, are very important for the world’s weather, and scientists have identified that we have heated up four times—the Arctic has heated up four times more than the rest of the world. So we are, it’s predicted, facing many more extremes, going forward, and that’s why it’s so important that we have some relief on its way to state and local, tribal, territorial governments to help them in addressing these impacts. It’s important to realize that virtually all of our built-in systems—our infrastructure, our built environment, our housing—they’re all built to the extremes of the past, to the weather of the past, and now we’ve seen we’re getting these worse and worse events. So we’re going to have more damage in the future and that’s why it’s so important to begin to think about how are we resilient to climate change. The Biden administration pushed the $1.2 trillion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, which did pass Congress. It was billed as a once-in-a-generation investment in America’s infrastructure and it aims to rebuild transportation systems, strengthen supply chains, and expand funding access to communities that have historically been excluded from reaping the benefits of many government programs, and it has $550 billion dollars in new federal spending over the next five years coming with that legislation. So the hope is that, as during the coronavirus we’ve seen many infrastructure gaps appear across our nation—unstable access to broadband services, poor road maintenance, utilities that fail in the face of extremes, and other infrastructure challenges—it’s hoped that this Act will help state and local officials in making the necessary changes that can improve their communities’ quality of life and, importantly, their safety. So I’m happy to later on to go into more detail on that. But that will be a significant investment in on-the-ground improvements that, I think, will be important for any state, local, tribal, territorial leader as they plan to help their communities thrive in a warming world. FASKIANOS: Thank you, Alice. Let’s go now to you, Matt, to talk about what you’re doing in Honolulu and the ways in which you would share best practices with your colleagues on what cities, counties, and states can be doing. GONSER: Great. Thank you, Irina, and thank you, Alice, for that important introduction, and also just thank you to CFR for the opportunity to join in this discussion. It was really overwhelming, quite frankly, to see the registration list, including my state representative, who’s here on the call today, Della Au Belatti. Great to see you here as well, including other state and local leaders across the counties of Hawaii and the state of Hawaii, and also individuals from my home state and my home island of Long Island, New York, and above, below, and everywhere in between. As much as I’m pleased to share our perspective from our perch out here in the Pacific, obviously, context matters and your local conditions are, really, what’s going to be important, and you should all feel proud that you are stepping up and leaning into these discussions because they will become more and more important as we progress into this century, as Alice just shared. And, very quickly, it is quite irrefutable and indisputable out here in the state of Hawaii, on the island of Oahu and elsewhere, that climate change is clear, present, and here, and the voters actually leaned in and recognized this and created the office that I have the pleasure and privilege to work in via a city charter amendment in the year 2016. And there are big expectations. Highlighting a few things here in terms of city operations, obviously, coordination, as Alice just mentioned, across different levels of government because we do need a whole of government approach and there are things that are going to be needed at different scales with different resources. Generally, we try to talk about resilience, which can be a pretty heady topic, in some simpler terms around sort of how we, as organizations, institutions, and systems, survive, adapt, and thrive. Surviving is not what we want. We need continued prosperity into the future in the face of growing and challenging uncertainty across these different stresses or shocks. And we know what’s changing. It is our climate, as Alice just mentioned, and, quite frankly, we know the direct cause of this and the direct driver. It is our continued use of fossil fuel for various purposes, including our energy systems, our buildings, our transportation networks, and some of the other sectors that Alice provided. And, you know, the foundational science has actually been measured here in the state of Hawaii atop Mauna Loa, measuring the increasing and seasonal uptick of carbon dioxide, in particular, in our atmosphere. And climate change is not a thing unto itself. It really is a threat multiplier, and Alice shared some insights into that. We know that climate is changing certain conditions and it’s those changes that then result in impacts and have the consequences for people and place, the environment of that place, but also the economy of your local jurisdiction or your region as a whole, and we’re really coming to grips with this across the nation. This wasn’t coordinated but I’m glad to see that we’re totally on the same page of recognizing and extending some of this information that NOAA has been tracking, and, certainly, we’re not out of 2021 and a lot of things are still being measured and, actually, this doesn’t even include some of the costs and consequences from both the wildfire season, the heat waves that Alice mentioned, and an earlier hurricane from this fall. And it’s really important to know, like, where these are happening, right. It’s affecting all of us. It’s affecting all of us in different places at different times of the year, sometimes at very strange times of the year now, and that makes it difficult as local government leaders to anticipate how to think about the systems that we need to adapt and change for. Uncertainty is risk and that can be very challenging for businesses and, certainly, can be very challenging for local government leaders. Bringing it back here to Hawaii, as I mentioned, people understand this. We’ve already measured a decline in our normal trade wind days, which is affecting heat, comfort, and our rainfall. We’ve already measured and are projecting different scenarios for sea level rise, which will affect a whole variety of sectors as well as public trust resources and where we all go to relax and recharge in these very stressful times, along the shoreline. And, similarly, we’ve already measured increasing temperatures, and what we do or don’t do in the coming decades will determine what trajectory we end up on in terms of ever-growing and increasing temperatures. And, you know, graphs and data are important, but it’s really the images and the experiences that speak to what we are acknowledging and recognizing and need to overcome—a compilation of some images here. And while a lot of these examples are going to be local for my condition and context, certainly, I’m sure you have some documentation of these things within your communities as well. Keying in on sea level rise and coastal hazards, in particular, we’ve already seen impacts to our recreation and community facilities where we’ve had to remove comfort stations and other elements of our city and county beach parks, real and significant impacts to private residences and the public trust resource, which is the beach, and then challenges as we think about doing infill, maximizing the investments of a mass transit project and how that can and should be an opportunity to grow communities and provide more affordable housing, really coming to terms with some of the challenges in some of those areas and the business disruption, continuity challenges, and impacts on redevelopment. But even on our public infrastructure as well, we see issues with our wastewater treatment systems and concerns around erosion and outfalls were impacted by increasing groundwater elevations, which make it more challenging for our water utility to respond to water main breaks where they actually have to pump out water or wait for low tide before they can access it, or through some heavy rain events, right, just ripping through our systems that were designed, as Alice mentioned, for a previous condition, and we need to think across public infrastructure, private facilities, land uses, and other natural and built infrastructure to overcome some of these challenges into the future. But just as I had mentioned that context matters for you in your places, even in an island setting like here on Oahu and the city and county of Honolulu, we have very different kinds of communities that have very different contexts, from ultra-urban, Honolulu urban core and the resident and visitor area in Waikiki to very rural conditions, and how we ensure equity in the distribution of resources really needs to be front and center as we’re thinking about how to address these issues in coordination with the state on their infrastructure. And, again, I’m just going to very quickly go through, because not all participants here are coastal communities, but, certainly, sea level rise and coastal erosion are a concern for us here and for many places around the nation. Changes in rainfall patterns—very heavy events are very difficult to both forecast and prepare for. So they can come at you in a very quick moment and then the ability to provide notice is challenged. Our weather service is strained in coming to grips with the need for different kinds of public communication tools here locally. Again, as I mentioned, increasing temperatures, and this can really be anywhere, just thinking about how we need to invest today to make sure that our communities can remain socially connected in the future is really, really critical. And sometimes we might have too much rain but also in a lot of places we’re having too little rain, and the impacts on land uses, soil stability, or your agricultural sectors, and then something like a hurricane, bringing those triple threat concerns of both heavy rain—sorry, heavy rain, high winds, and then storm surge. So, obviously, when change is coming at us we can’t assume we can just continue to do the same things. Climate change is requiring us to change, and that doesn’t necessarily mean that it’s doing new things. But, certainly, we need to be aligned and think about the practices that we already have, the things that we’re investing in, and really looking at those projects and those investments so that we can drive down risk over time. And very quickly, to wrap up here so we can get to the Q&A, the process that we’ve gone through the last couple of years started with a lot of community discussion and really thinking about what a thriving community is into the future. And it’s not just addressing climate change but it’s addressing affordability challenges, social and community resilience and staying connected, and thinking about preparedness as well. So it’s important to embark on that process, engage and communicate with community as well as elected officials, and then really put yourself out there and put a line in the sand in terms of the values and the policies that you’re hoping to address and then adopt it and commit to it and say you’re going to work on it because people have provided their time. You need to validate that participation. We’re fortunate that we had some additional clarity in our office’s roles and responsibilities to find an ordinance, which we are very pleased to act upon. But you also need to measure and track and report back out. We need to be held accountable for the things that we say we’re going to do and also be open to explaining why things are not working, where the risks and challenges are, and provide that back. And then since we know the drivers of climate change, we all, undoubtedly, need our own climate action plans because, collectively, we need to bend that curve over time because if we don’t we’ll just have to find more ways and different ways to invest to prepare communities to adapt to the changes that we’re already experiencing, and I’ve already spoken about that quite a bit in terms of the things that we’re concerned about here locally. But it’s having those discussions out in community, which is really going to even empower us to engage in these difficult conversations and the federal government has really put a thumbprint on this in terms of the Justice 40 Initiative and expecting and explaining how those kinds of benefits need to accrue to places that have been on the frontline of impacts historically and now, increasingly, as a result of climate change. And lastly, you know, we, in local government and state government and everywhere in between, the rules that we establish for ourselves and for community they’re really about ensuring expectation and the opportunity for a thriving community and economic prosperity. But we know those rules were for a different condition, like Alice had said, and we need to think about those different expectations and modify them so that people understand what’s needed, moving forward, because if we don’t make those changes local government will continue to take on obligations and future risks. We know that we’re challenged already today and we need to prepare ourselves to think about what’s the course correction needed to not obligate future generations for some of those future risks. So with that, I probably went already too long. But thank you for entertaining some of that and look forward to the Q&A. FASKIANOS: That was fantastic. Thank you so much. And now we want to go to all of you. (Gives queuing instructions.) The first question comes from Liz Ellis. How can cities work with the federal government to change the design of levees and sea walls to meet a longer-term sea rise when the feds currently just require designs to meet current and maybe hundred-year flood levels? And Liz Ellis is a city council member in Aberdeen, Washington. GONSER: That’s a great question, Liz, and, certainly, we know FEMA is acknowledging some of the issues of the historical mapping. We know there are a lot of places across the nation that even don’t—still don’t benefit from mapping, and they’re investing a lot. We’re fortunate that there’s investments into FEMA’s processes but also acknowledging that how they measure risk and account for that flood risk is evolving. Right now, they’re—we’re already underway with a risk rating 2.0, efforts to move towards more of an actuarial rate, which would be very shocking, and actually had been done several years ago through the Biggert-Waters Act, and then Congress immediately pulled back because it was extremely impactful for communities around the nation. We’ve had good experiences in terms of incorporating and advocating for the kind of data that gets incorporated. I know the Army Corps, in particular, they, for years, have had their own sea level rise calculator and they use that for their design specifications. But to your question around, you know, this notion of a one hundred-year flood, which was intended to make it a little bit more comprehensible in terms of risks, really created a misnomer and a misunderstanding about what an annual risk is, and we’re fortunate that in working with FEMA locally and working with our state NFIP program that narrative is shifting a little bit. But there are many leaders across the country, cities like Boston and New York, recognizing that FEMA’s maps are just—they’re just the minimum, and any community is empowered and can, should they have the resources, to create your own rules, regulations, and guidance, including flood maps above and beyond what we have access to through FEMA. And that’s a trend that, I think, will need to grow as we progress because we can’t expect and always wait for the federal government to take the lead on things. It’s a big country. FASKIANOS: Thank you. Alice, do you want to—you’re muted, Alice. HILL: Thanks. Sure. I think it points to—the question points to a challenge that we have. All of the federal agencies, just as state and local governments, are dealing with this issue for the first time. They are figuring out what needs to be done and they have all submitted—each of the federal agencies, pursuant to an executive order that President Biden issued on his very first day in office, have submitted adaptation plans. One of the challenges is to make sure that we’re planning for the same thing when we’re talking about working with communities, and you have pointed out that the Army Corps of Engineers sometimes has different planning scenarios and assumptions than others do. This is an issue that the federal government will need to resolve and work on so that vulnerability assessments are shared across the community. We don’t yet have readily available vulnerability assessments that are produced by the federal government. We have the National Climate Assessment, which is very broad and not downscaled in sufficient ways, and then we have some communities like Hawaii, California, New York, who’ve marched out and done their own vulnerability assessments. But for other communities we still may need those and we need for the federal government to share its ideas about what we should be assuming are the future conditions we’re planning for. I will just add to what Matt said. Those FEMA flood maps are widely recognized as being, largely, out of date. He’s correctly said, and it’s unfortunate that we use the one in one-hundred-year flood when we know it might be the one in twenty-five-year flood now. Of course, those flood maps define who’s in and out of the National Flood Insurance Program run by FEMA. I will just for this audience flag that there is new flood information available, particularly for residential property. The First Street Foundation had a project where they have mapped flooding for the entire United States. So you can type in your own home address and get your flood score and now many of the real estate aggregators—Zillow, I think Redfin—carry the flood factor. So that’s a way to inform your community. It’s more accurate and FEMA has said go ahead and use the First Street Foundation maps in recognition that they haven’t produced accurate maps yet, and there are many reasons for that—pushback from communities sometimes, as well as simply lack of funding to do this. But now we’ve had a philanthropist move into this space and that should help with evening the understanding of what is reasonable to anticipate within the next thirty years, for example. FASKIANOS: Thank you. So Hawaii State Representative Amy Perruso has written a question and I want to see if she would like to ask it herself. Otherwise, I will read it. Q: I can ask. So it doesn’t seem like this question connects to the topic but, in my view, it really does because we’re facing this crisis around water on Oahu, that threatens kind of the backup system that our Board of Water Supply had set up in case of hurricane. So my question is, really, around how do we—we’re talking mostly at the state and local level. But then when we have actors in our communities who we are struggling to hold accountable to the same standards, how can we bring them into alignment? GONSER: Yeah. Aloha. Good morning, Rep. Perruso from central Oahu. I mean, you, certainly, know this just as acutely as any of us, and for people on the call we had—what a month we had last week here across the state in terms of record rainfalls and a statewide disaster declaration, also critical water contamination and the displacement of thousands of households as a result of jet fuel getting into the water system, and then several cyberattacks that affected both our public transit system and other accounting and payroll services both in the public and private. And, Rep. Perruso, I wish I had a better response to address that specific question, but this recognition, again, I think, the linkage to today’s topic and the drivers of climate change and how climate change and greenhouse gas pollution are affecting both national and international relations and local security is completely aligned with the truth and reality of needing to get off these fuel sources and also how we manage them in different places around the nation and the globe. FASKIANOS: Alice? HILL: I will step in. Yes, it’s—this is a very important question. We know that there are linkages between national security and climate change. The military—the Department of Defense did come out recently with a series of plans for dealing with climate change both in terms of the increased impacts because, as you can imagine, there’s the demand for humanitarian aid both through the National Guard here in the United States. The National Guard is being called on increasingly to help with fire—management of wildfires in a way they’ve never been called on before—our reservists—and then we are called to help in international—the international arena as we see ever greater humanitarian disasters. And there will be increasing immigration pressures because we’re going to see many more people on the move as their survival, their livelihoods, their shelter, their access to food and water, are threatened by climate change. So this is a significant problem for our military and they are also a significant contributor to the emissions. So there’s a multi-prong approach, but one is to determine how emissions can be reduced in the military. There are some areas that are impossible to abate, for example, in aviation right now so for our fighter jets we won’t be able to get to that. But you’ll see—in my experience within the military there is a demand to reduce the dependence on fossil fuels because in war time that dependence can have—can cause loss of life of American soldiers as they attempt to refuel in dangerous places. Much more to be done. I think we have to step back and say, honestly, we all hope the federal government can step forward to help more, but we are a deeply polarized nation on this issue and that polarization is reflected in Congress. So it becomes difficult to enact some of the types of solutions that have been put forward widely because we simply can’t get to agreement amongst our representatives on what the best course forward is on climate change. FASKIANOS: Thank you. I’ll take the next question from Iowa State Representative Chuck Isenhart. And if you can unmute yourself. You’re still muted. There we go. Q: All right. FASKIANOS: You’re—all right. Q: Didn’t know if it was my button or yours that wasn’t working. FASKIANOS: OK. Q: So the discussion here is state versus federal initiative, kind of like who’s on first, who’s going to go first. How much would state-level constitutional amendments, environmental rights amendments like the one just passed in New York, help in jumpstarting or mandating state-level initiatives? And I’m not sure you’re familiar with that but there are at least three states that have constitutional amendments, basically, saying that citizens have a right to a clean environment. HILL: Well, I can jump in a little bit. Once you have a constitutional right there—I’m a former judge and a former prosecutor, and once you have a law on the books that says there’s a right, there probably will be litigation following to enforce that right. And I haven’t—I’m not familiar with any litigation in the United States based on the amendments that you’re mentioning. There is litigation in the United States. It’s still active, most notably, by children saying that they have a right, essentially, to a better future and that the federal government is failing in that. A very interesting development in the law, and the law moves slowly. The wheels of justice can move slowly in this context. But it has revealed a difference in philosophy among judges and you can see that in dissenting opinions and the opinions written. And the question is, is this an issue for governments to solve—the federal government—or is this an issue that is left to the legislature to solve. Just as we said, you know, if the legislature can’t agree, but does that mean the court has to step in, and we still don’t have that answer yet. We have seen some judge, including the district court judge in this case called Juliana v. the United States, I believe, coming out of the Ninth Circuit. The trial court was very impassioned about the need for protection of children in the future because, after all, it’s future generations who will suffer even more than the pain we are suffering now. Worldwide, this has begun to take on some kind of liability, going forward, and we have seen some—for example, in Pakistan, the supreme court there said—after a lawsuit was filed, said the Pakistani government wasn’t doing enough to protect people, going forward. So it’s a(n) emerging field. With more fodder in the cannon, I am sure there’ll be more litigation and perhaps there will be greater pressure on governments to act. And we’ve seen, I think, in the Netherlands also the Dutch supreme court saying that the Dutch government wasn’t moving quickly enough to act on climate. Not here yet in the United States, even though we’re the litigation capital of the world but, certainly, numerous attempts to try to get clarity on who will, ultimately, be responsible, as you’ve just said. FASKIANOS: Matt? GONSER: Yeah, not much to add. FASKIANOS: OK. GONSER: I have less awareness on the importance and the opportunity at the state level, but at least on the county level we try to make sure—our office is new. A lot of the things that we’re doing are new documents, new planning processes, et cetera. That’s why we actually went through a process to try to create the ordinance that further defined explicitly some of the things that we needed to do because that’s where we thought there was that political hook and the importance to have things on the books so that there is accountability and an awareness of what needs to be done so that people can say and point when it’s not being done. FASKIANOS: Thank you. I’m going to go next to Megan Levy, who’s a program manager in the Wisconsin State Energy Office. Megan, do you want to ask your question yourself or—I’ll give you a minute if you want to unmute yourself. Otherwise, I will read it. If you’d just unmute yourself. I see you. OK. I will read it. So it seems that the days of using previous disasters to prepare for the next event are over. How do we anticipate these rain bombs and atmospheric rivers or whatever the next natural disaster is, and how do we prepare? GONSER: Yeah, I can take a stab at that, and I think I saw some other question around some of this. I mean, quite frankly, this adds to that component of uncertainty, which then adds some additional level and recognition for some precautionary practices, right. If we understand that the risks are changing faster than our minimum standards, rules, and regulations are changing, we need to advocate as much as we can or rapidly try to address those through floodplain ordinances, land use practices, thinking about where existing development is, how do we redirect it and communicate that with community, like, share that recognition that, no, the banks of the storm drainage channel didn’t necessarily overtop because of perception of blockage. It was because we got two inches of rain in an hour for a condition that’s designed for a very different scenario, and that that can be very unsatisfying and very difficult to have those conversations. But the more that we are honest and up front about it and continuing to communicate it, hopefully, that then provides some of the motivation and support for making the changes. I was looking through some old notes from an old study tour and I found this quote of something called a zoning time bomb and that’s, basically, this idea of a property or a parcel that hasn’t exercised its development rights yet and probably shouldn’t because we really hope that we don’t have to take on that future risk, whether it’s a coastal area or along a riverine condition. And I think the more we assess and understand our local conditions we need to try to get ahead of that and then just continue to communicate on preparedness and supporting people to have their own plans while we’re also working on the public side. FASKIANOS: Alice, I know you have something to say about that. HILL: Yes, I do. I think, first of all, because there is a great deal of uncertainty as to when these things will arrive, one of the first places to start for greater preparedness is focus on early warning systems and that requires strong meteorological services and it also requires understanding human cognition and social science and how people respond to these warnings. But we’re, undoubtedly, going to hear a lot more about failures in the tornado warning systems that we had, failures either to communicate or act on those warnings. But for a community that is an easy place to—not an easy but important place to start and, in fact, the Global Commission on Adaptation that’s one of the major call outs. We need to just improve early warning. I love this idea or this concept of a zoning time bomb, and I will say that in at least one community I’m aware of the—this is in Norfolk, Virginia, which faces a(n) increased risk of sea level rise that’s coupled with subsidence. So they really have a lot of water coming in. And the Norfolk community, there was an area very prone to flooding and it rezoned to reduce development and change the requirements for development to keep the community safer. They were sued. They eventually won that lawsuit because there’s greater understanding that the zoning laws are designed to protect people. This will be a challenge both with building codes and zoning laws for local communities as they try to march out and protect and, of course, those decisions are solely in the hands of either state and local authorities under the Constitution. The federal government does not decide where building occurs or how it occurs. Those are left to—those decisions are left to the local governments. But I’m sure the federal government will try to encourage better decision-making in these areas in the face of this growing risk. But we will see much greater litigation. There was a case after Sandy in a small town. I can’t—I think it was in New York, but I can’t recall. Anyway, the town had a zoning requirement that you couldn’t—that you couldn’t elevate the homes because it would ruin the aesthetics of the street to have a home ten feet higher than the rest of the homes, and this family had had their home wiped out and they wanted to rebuild in the same location and they wanted to have that height to protect them against future flooding and they’re in a coastal region. And in that case, the court ruled that it may be the local ordinance may require this but we can’t leave common sense at the door and they’re going to be able to elevate their home. And that’s the kind of thing we will be confronting because our systems all right now reflect decisions based on the assumption that the past is a good guide for the future and we are rapidly seeing that’s a poor assumption. And as Matt has said, we’re going to have to move quickly either to change those rules, and if we don’t we will leave people in the zone of danger. In fact, we’ve seen more people move into areas of risk near the—and this is proven out by Redfin—near coastal areas at risk of flooding than not in recent decades. We have to change that paradigm. And that will fall on state and local governments to figure out how they will thrive and what effect that will take on their tax bases as they go forward. But— GONSER: And— HILL: Go ahead, Matt. GONSER: And I know, Irina, you’re going to ask another question. But very quickly, you know, local governments, when supported by sound science, information, and risk mitigation proposals as well as the need to ensure fiscal solvency within the local government shouldn’t hesitate to do what they think is right. Obviously, there will be people that give pause or anytime something sniffs of a takings claim. Those are just going to have to proceed. I mean, that those things will likely come up. But as government actors, we have a responsibility to the public health and safety and welfare of our communities and when we are making rational and sound decisions. Hopefully, that gets upheld, and we are stepping into new terrain in terms of a climate change future. FASKIANOS: There is a written question from Jon Thompson, who is a city council member in Sedona, Arizona. Matt, as a popular visitor destination, how are you dealing with the climate effects of tourism? Specifically, are you trying to take responsibility for mitigating travel and other emissions of tourists? GONSER: Yeah, great question. So it’s twofold, right. It’s both energy, water, and waste once people are here and managing those implications. But the biggest challenge for us, quite frankly, as an island community and as a visitor-dependent community, which, hopefully, we’re on the verge of transforming as we bounce back better from the truth and reality that COVID laid bare here locally, our greenhouse gas emissions inventory, though we had been static for a couple of years in the 20-teens, we did see an uptick 2017, ’18, and ’19 primarily driven by aviation. So within our transportation sector, which is a huge slice of our pie, second to buildings and energy. It really was that aviation fuel use that drove up our increase. But across the methodology, you know, we’re only accounting for a portion of flight travel, not necessarily its departure destination but, certainly, around the fuel used within our jurisdiction and that’s something that we’re going to have to really grapple with. We’re excited by some progress in terms of inter-island travel, which is—you know, a lot of people depend on that either for health care, connecting with family, but also for travel. We’ve seen some exciting things benefiting from venture capital and other accelerator programs, namely, the Elemental Excelerator group and some promise, actually, for—they call them either sea planes—they’re not quite boats, they’re not quite planes—but also some solar—some potentials for solar inter-island flights and battery backup within those planes. But aviation is going to be one of those things, including marine transportation, that will need more federal leadership and support to affect that sector as a whole. That’s going to be a very difficult thing for local governments to be the main influencer on. FASKIANOS: Great. Thank you. I’m going to go next to Dave Reid, who is the director of Office of Resilience—Response, Recovery, and Resilience for Santa Cruz. What are some ways that you and other communities are centering equity in these efforts? It’s been clear from COVID that there’s a disproportionate impact on those disadvantaged and marginalized communities and is a likely harbinger of how climate change will impact vulnerable populations. GONSER: This subject warrants a whole session in and of itself. But, certainly, locally, it really proved and showed what, generally, people knew across community, that there was not—there are a lot of things that weren’t working for people before the pandemic and if we just go back to it we’ll have done—we’ll have learned nothing and have done a complete disservice to this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity in terms of the federal resources through multiple bills, multiple relief packages, and we need to change both our information management and how we think about what a good job is here locally. We learned even from the last economic downturn prior to 2010 that post that our visitor industry did not rebound in the same way. You know, it didn’t necessarily bring everyone back to work. It’s not likely to be that kind of rebound this time either, and what are the different sectors and fields that we really need to think about to transform our local community and innovate and keep people connected to place and thinking about food systems, conservation, health care, education, IT as well. One really great anecdote that I learned recently, even though I’ve been working with this individual for the last year and a half, I only learned recently that she herself went to the mayor’s office last summer and said, you need someone directly within city government on the COVID response team who is a Pacific Islander. My community is suffering. No one understands how we behave or what the value systems are and they have no notion on how to connect with local government. And she forced and created a position. And it’s too much for any one person to do, but it’s a specific example of how even within our city workforce we need to assess do we reflect the community that we serve, and we’re fortunate that we’re part of a national association of counties cohort and benefiting from some technical support to look at that spectrum and make sure we’re thinking about disaggregated data so that we understand the disparate impacts and then know specifically what we need to do better to address those impacts. FASKIANOS: Great. I’m going to go next to Jessica Vealitzek. I’m not pronouncing her name correctly. She’s a board member in Illinois—Lake County, Illinois. What are some innovative policies you’ve seen coming out of counties, which often have jurisdiction across a broad area, including building and planning, storm water management, transportation, particularly in unincorporated areas? GONSER: I can’t directly answer that. So we’re unique in terms of our geographic boundary. The mayor is the mayor of the whole of this island, which is the city and county of Honolulu. So we don’t have unincorporated areas or the—you know, the challenges in terms of, like, a city within a county, perhaps. But that laundry list in the question are the kinds of things that, you know, we and others need to innovate on because they’re the ways that we address either energy use in buildings, managing rain where it falls, and all of the other concerns that we’ve spoken about here on the panel. FASKIANOS: Alice, do you have— GONSER: Sorry. That’s probably a little bit of an insufficient answer. HILL: Sure. I think often where we see innovation is after a disaster because the challenge here, as you all are well aware, is political will, and whether the community wants to take on added requirements and they sometimes can carry additional costs to prepare for something that may be perceived as unlikely. Of course, immediately after the disaster, just based on how humans assess risk, the risk is foremost in their minds and you can get the political will to act. Where this was very evident is in Houston, where there had been great resistance to building codes as well as to, really, flood management in a way that would protect communities. There was a lot of building in areas that were identified on the map, perhaps, at risk of flooding. Post-Hurricane Harvey, which, of course, dumped about four feet of rain in just a very short amount of time and in the very flat Houston area caused massive flooding, Houston was able to put in place building codes which required elevation of homes, and, I think for government leaders, remembering what Rahm Emanuel famously said—he was President Obama’s first chief of staff—and it sounds flippant, but I think for leadership it’s important. He said, never let a good crisis go to waste, and by that he meant take advantage of that moment when people are focused on this issue to really put in place the kind of change you need and you’ll be better able to do that if you’ve thought through what could we use and when that moment arrives you’re ready—at the ready to drive—for example, in the areas that were just hit by tornadoes drive better early warning systems, better construction, making sure that schools have safe rooms inside or where there were buildings have safe rooms, all those things. You can take this moment to have better improvement. Ideally, that’s not the way we want to move forward. We’d like to have a massive plan and be able to do it all correctly. But sometimes the politics here just get completely in the way. So I think, as leaders, you can plan for a bad event and then take advantage of it. FASKIANOS: Great. We have five minutes left so I want to package a couple of questions. There’s one from Andrew Manavel (ph). Federal, state, and local governments have many roles in this. Is one of them to discourage or preclude development in exposed areas? If so, what is the recommended manner? Also, what is a good enforceable role through the insurance industry? And then another one just about how do you—what do you do about climate change deniers. GONSER: I guess I’ll try to quickly go through that one. Quite frankly, that’s not something that we—there are, obviously, differences of opinions even in a place like Hawaii, even in a place that voted for such an office. But we just direct it head on and we clearly articulate how it’s incorrect and how the abundance of evidence is clear and present, and then we move on as to why we need to take action. But also it’s important to communicate out, you know, different messages for different people. Sometimes easier ways to talk about climate change issues are to explain how climate mitigation can be good business, how it can improve quality of life in neighborhoods, how it can make it safer for kids to walk to school, how it can help a senior get off a bus and go to a grocery store. Like, there are different ways you can package it. But I would never hesitate to address the truth and reality because it’s our responsibility to communicate what’s happening. The previous question, I’ve quite forgotten it. Yeah, we do have—we have a responsibility, as Alice and I have both shared, in terms of life, safety, health, and welfare and in terms of the land use practices that we deploy, the community conversations to set up those plans. It is our responsibility and I think as much as we hope and expect and sometimes want to use as a crutch in terms of federal rules or federal ordinances, it really is the responsibility of the state and local governments to set the tone for what needs to be accomplished. FASKIANOS: Thank you. Alice? HILL: Sure. Let me quickly go through this. I’ll start with the last first, the insurance industry. Insurers write policies on an annualized basis just for one year—primary insurers—and I think what you’ll see as these events continue is a constriction of insurance. We’re seeing that already in the wildfire space. Of course, we have a National Flood Insurance Program, as Matt has said. That program has, essentially, been bankrupt because the government has not charged premiums that reflect the true risk of flooding. FEMA is just rolling out a program to try to tackle that. We’ll see how it goes. It’s very politically charged. Both sides of the aisle do not like to see premiums increased on their constituents. So it remains to be seen. But in the private insurance market you’ll see in my—over time a reduction in the availability of property and casualty insurance. The premiums will get too high to be attractive. As to the role of the federal government, I think the federal government has an important role in encouraging sound business—sound building choices and it has already demonstrated how it can do that with the Coastal Barrier Resources Act that was passed in the 1960s. We have those thin barrier islands on the Atlantic coast and, basically, the federal government said, you know, these are really risky places to be making deep investments in. We, in the federal government, aren’t going to be investing that. We’re not going to do disaster recovery. We’re not going to help you with infrastructure here. You’re on your own because it’s just too risky. And I think as we see more areas in the United States develop in that manner, if local governments continue to insist that they’re going to allow development either in areas that we know are at high risk or in ways that make them at high risk because it’s not sound building practices, the federal government could provide greater incentives to places that are better suited and then withdraw resources to areas that are at great risk. And the final—on the climate deniers, I’ll just add I have taken very seriously the latest report by the International (sic; Intergovernmental) Panel on Climate Change. I will say it’s based on peer—review of fourteen thousand peer-reviewed scientific journal articles about climate science. The executive summary of that report, which is produced by scientists from over sixty nations, two hundred and thirty of them, and every nation agrees to every single word. A hundred and ninety-seven nations agree to every single word in that executive summary, and that summary concludes, based on that floor of peer-reviewed articles, that it’s unequivocal that the climate is changing at an unprecedented rate and it’s unequivocal it’s changing because of human activity. And as a former judge, it’s easy for me to say the evidence is in. We need to be moving on to solutions. So I don’t engage on a debate on the science because the scientists have already concluded and all nations have agreed to that conclusion that it’s here, it’s real, and it’s human caused. FASKIANOS: Thank you very much to both of you. This has been—this hour flew by. Really appreciate your taking the time to do this. I apologize to all of you that we couldn’t get to your questions. There’s an interesting comment from Veronica Payez (ph) in, I think, Michigan about what they’re doing in their communities. So you should take a look at that before we close out. Alice Hill and Matthew Gonser, thank you very much again, and thanks to all of you for being on this call and for what you’re doing. We will send out a link to the webinars and a transcript so you can review it after the fact. You can follow Matthew Gonser’s work at www.resilientoahu.org and on Twitter at @ResilientOahu, and you can follow Alice Hill on Twitter at @Alice_C_Hill. You can also follow us on State and Local Officials Initiative on Twitter at @CFR_Local and, as always, we encourage you to visit CFR.org and foreign affairs.com for more expertise and analysis. And as always, we look to you for your comments, suggestions, feedback. Email us at [email protected]. I hope you all have a very happy and safe and healthy holiday season. Thank you for all your work in your communities and we look forward to reconvening in 2022. (END)
  • State and Local Governments (U.S.)
    Artificial Intelligence: Uses and Regulation By Local Government
    Play
    Michael C. Horowtiz, senior fellow for defense technology and innovation at CFR, and Lauren Kahn, research fellow at CFR, discuss local government’s use and regulation of artificial intelligence and facial recognition technology. Additional Resources Michael C. Horowitz and Lauren Kahn, “What Influences Attitudes About Artificial Intelligence Adoption: Evidence From U.S. Local Officials,” PLOS ONE, October 21, 2021. FASKIANOS: Welcome to the Council on Foreign Relations State and Local Officials Webinar. I’m Irina Faskianos, vice president for the National Program and Outreach at CFR. We’re delighted to have participants from forty-six U.S. states and territories with us for today’s discussion on “Artificial Intelligence Uses and Regulations by Local Government.” This conversation is on the record, and we will circulate the audio and video and transcript after the fact. As you know, CFR is an independent and nonpartisan membership organization, think tank, and publisher, focusing on U.S. foreign policy. CFR is also the publisher of Foreign Affairs magazine. Through our State and Local Officials Initiative, we serve as a resource on international issues affecting the priorities and agendas of state and local governments by providing analysis on a wide range of policy topics. We’re pleased to have Michael Horowitz and Lauren Kahn with us today. We shared their bios, so I’ll just give you a few highlights. Michael Horowitz is a senior fellow for defense technology and innovation at CFR. He is also the director of Perry World House, the Richard Perry Professor and professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania. And previously Dr. Horowitz worked for the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy at the Department of Defense. Lauren Kahn is a research fellow at CFR, where she focuses on defense innovation with a particular emphasis on artificial intelligence. Previously she was a research fellow at the Perry World House at the University of Pennsylvania. And Lauren Kahn and Michael Horowitz co-authored the recent report, What Influences Attitudes about Artificial Intelligence Adoption: Evidence from U.S. Local Officials. And we’ve circulated that in advance of today’s discussion. So thank you both for being with us. We appreciate it. Michael, I want to start first with you to talk about your report and how state and local governments are using artificial-intelligence technology. HOROWITZ: Well, thanks so much, Irina. And, you know, thanks to everybody tuning in. I’m really delighted to be here for the conversation. I know Lauren is as well, and you’ll hear from her in a minute. And I want to just start by sharing my screen, if that’s OK, because I think that the story that Lauren and I want to tell you here is really a story that comes from some actual data that we gathered on how U.S. local officials are thinking about uses of artificial intelligence, both things like facial-recognition technology as well as self-driving cars, autonomous surgery, and a lot of other potential applications. And so, to give you a sense of what I’m talking about here, our goal in doing this research was the insight that, you know, the United States is not like every other country. And, I mean, everybody on this call actually knows that already. But one of the ways that we’re not like every other country is our federal structure and the way that federalism in the United States empowers states and localities to make lots of really important policy decisions that often in other countries are made at the national level. I mean, when we think about states and localities as laboratories for democracy, often that involves experimentation, and especially experimentation with emerging technologies. So given the prominence of artificial intelligence and the way that it is shaping our lives in, you know, everything from the, you know, ads you get served on your phone to Netflix recommendations to other things, we wanted to try to understand those attitudes. So, working with an organization called Civic Pulse, we surveyed almost seven hundred local officials during October 2020, so in the run-up to the 2020 presidential election. And we actually got a lot of responses. We had, you know, over 550 people that completed the full survey, along with another set of people that partially completed the survey. And so we actually think we have a lot of insights we can share then about the way that people think about, at the local level, artificial intelligence. And we think that this is important, because a lot of the decisions about actual adoption and use of AI will be made by all of you, will be made by people who are working at the state and local level, thinking about, you know, everything from business regulations in general, regulations on automobiles, regulations on the police, regulations on other kinds of institutions, both government institutions and in the private sector. And it’s also important to try to understand this in the local-government context because of the way the private sector is driving a lot of the innovation in AI. You know, it’s almost a truism at this point to talk about the way that technology advances faster than our ability to figure out what to do about it. But that’s been especially true in this context. And I want to tell you a little bit about the sort of key takeaways we had from the survey before turning it over to Lauren to talk more about some of the specific results and some of the specific results involving facial-recognition technology, which I know is, you know, obviously on everybody’s mind as a key potential application of AI. The first thing we found was certainly, I would say, a familiarity effect in that those who considered themselves, through their careers or through their knowledge, to have a baseline understanding of, you know, what AI is—and you think about AI here as computers doing tasks that we used to think required human intelligence—that the more familiar people were with these—with AI—the more likely they were to be supportive of using AI in a variety of different kinds of application areas. The second was those that were most concerned about AI and uses of AI tend to be concerned with tradeoffs, you know, maybe even recognizing the potential benefits of having algorithms making choices or advising decision-makers, but they were really worried about bias and the way that, you know, all the biases that affect us in our daily lives can spill over into algorithms and then generate biased outcomes, as well as loss of privacy. I mean, the engine of our big-tech companies, as incredible as they are, were sort of built on taking all of our information and putting it in enormous databases that they then use to further refine their products. And we’ve agreed to do that in all the user agreements that we accept every time we sign up for one of these services or get a new phone, which I did last weekend. It had to accept, you know, fifty new different things. And that’s raised a lot of privacy concerns then when we think about the way that algorithms are aggregating all that data and then in the way that companies might be using it. And then the last thing I’ll say before turning it over to Lauren is that we found that support for facial recognition in particular, which is, you know, obviously a prominent application area, really seemed to depend for our respondents on the context in which it was being used. And then we saw a lot of support for using facial recognition to say—to identify criminal suspects, which, to be fair, is actually a controversial use that we can get into, as well as for something like, say, the U.S. military to do surveillance; so, say, surveillance uses by the military, by—of criminals, et cetera. That was the area where our local-officials survey pool was pretty supportive. They were a lot less supportive when asked how they thought about essentially surveillance of the general population, you know, ubiquitous cameras around gathering data on people that then, you know, all would be kind of fed into—you know, into algorithms. The local-official population, we found, was a lot less comfortable with that. Now, to talk about some of those results in more detail, let me turn it over to Lauren. KAHN: Awesome. Thanks, Mike. So starting off here, we asked more than just racial-recognition technology. So I’ll just take you through these quickly. But we asked respondents to give their opinions on each potential use of AI on a scale from, you know, very supportive to no opinion to very unsupportive, very opposed to the technology use. And so these included surveillance of criminal suspects through facial-recognition software and other means, general monitoring of the civilian population for illicit or illegal behavior, job selection and promotion for local officials, decisions about prison sentences, decisions about the transplant list, natural-disaster impact planning, responding to 9-1-1 calls, surveillance of monitoring and military targets, and the use of military force. And here you can see the range on overall net perception, which means overall how positively or negatively these applications were viewed when taken in the aggregate. And they ranged from, you know, most opposed to most supportive, from the top to the bottom. And so in the graphic here you can see the distribution and then you can see that, you know, from the range of applications, they vary from pretty controversial to pretty uncontroversial. Things like, you know, natural-disaster impact planning were pretty well supported. But then you get to some differences when you get to other issues; you know, when we talked about, you know, facial-recognition technology in particular. So looking at the three technologies that I would say that would conceivably use facial-recognition technology of the general monitoring of the population, which was very, very unpopular, with about, like, negative 27 percent, so everyone was relatively opposed to that. And then you get to—on the flip side, you have surveillance of criminal suspects with facial recognition, which was pretty supported at 20 percent, and then surveillance and monitoring of military targets, which was very supported at 38 percent. And so you can see that it really, really depends on the context of which of these technologies are used that actually deem how supportive—how much officials supported them. And so, you know, when it comes to their own populations and just, you know, run-of-the-mill just surveilling everybody, that was very controversial and very strongly opposed. But when you get to outside of the United States and specific-use cases that have a little bit more limitations, they were a little bit more open. So Mike, if you want to move to the next slide. Awesome. So here I’ve highlighted, to focus here, if you want to focus to the left, about what are the kind of indicators that led to people being more supportive or less supportive of facial-recognition technology. And so here age was an indicator of how supportive anything with a checkmark was. So if you were older, even though our population was a little bit skewed more older, just based on who we were sampling, but they were more supportive overall of facial-recognition software being used. You also got political party being an indicator, with Republicans and Republican-leaning independents being more likely to support the use of AI in facial-recognition surveillance for criminal suspects and the use of military force. However, we see that jumping out again where that really—when it comes to what determined whether or not someone was supportive of facial-recognition technology was how concerned they were over the potential—excuse me—for algorithmic bias and the tradeoffs between potential privacy concerns and gathering information. And so those people who were really a lot more concerned, you know, prioritized privacy and were really concerned about bias were significantly less likely to approve of uses of AI in most areas, and especially facial-recognition software. So if you want to hop to the next one, Mike. Thank you. And so, finally, giving—a little bit unpacking this, you know, we’ve mentioned that, based on level of experience with AI, like familiarity, if you’re more experienced with AI, you tend to be more supportive. But then you also have this dynamic where if you’re also aware of AI, you also might be aware of its potential pitfalls as well as the benefits, right? You might be aware that, you know, anything—you know, they say garbage in, garbage out. If you have biases incorporated into the technology themselves, they might not work as properly and cause some ethical concerns as well. And so we wanted to dig into that dynamic a bit, and we broke down to the text responses that respondents gave us for why they said they either opposed or supported the technology. So this doesn’t indicate whether or not they were supportive or not, but rather indicates what kind of logics and reasonings people were using in those open-text responses to describe why they were feeling the way that they did about specific uses of artificial intelligence. And so when it came to concern about bias, they were really concerned, as you can see here, about the technical reliability, which means, like, will the technology actually function the way it’s meant to; and so, you know, whether you could avoid some of the issues like that bias might be caused—you know, AI in a lot of the facial-recognition technologies are known to not work as well of people with darker skin tones, for example, and people of color. And so that’s a concern there; and then also about the societal impact, so about the implications of the technology not actually functioning properly, right; like, it might have significant ramifications if you use it for things like deciding prison sentence(s) of civilian populations and trying to identify individuals. And so those are the two main logics, it seemed, that people were using. Another one was human values or concerns about, you know, these are, like, human decisions and humans really should be the ones making these choices, and so concerns about delegating these kinds of tasks in traditionally human-held roles to now artificial intelligence and algorithms. And so that was a little bit more about the details. But I think we’re ready for questions now. FASKIANOS: Fantastic. Thank you both; really interesting data and analysis. And let’s go to all of you for your questions. You can raise your hand by clicking on the raised-hand icon. I will call on you and you can accept the unmute prompt and state your name and affiliation, and location would also be helpful, as well as your question. You may also submit a written question via the Q&A feature on your Zoom window. And if you do that, it also would be great if you could identify yourself. We do have a roster, but it’s helpful for me, who’s reading out the questions. So don’t hold back. We really want to hear from you and maybe hear things that you’re doing in your own community as well. So I’m going to go first to Dr. Brad Lewis. Q: Hi. Thanks for the presentation and thanks for taking my question. I guess one’s a question and one’s a comment. You noted that surveillance of criminal activity was pretty well accepted and military was very well supported. But the numbers only came in at 20 and 38 percent. No criteria for AI had a majority opinion under any circumstance. That would be my first comment. My second was, for the criminal activity, what defines a criminal? Am I a criminal if I get a parking ticket? That’s a pretty broad range of surveillance. I don’t know what criminal means. FASKIANOS: And you’re coming from Ohio, correct? Chief medical officer in Ohio? Q: Right. I’m chief medical officer for the Bureau of Workers’ Compensation. And in past lives I was also a city councilman and a county coroner. FASKIANOS: Thank you. Whoever wants to take that, or you both can. HOROWITZ: Sure. I can jump in. So to—so Dr. Lewis, it’s a great question. And the numbers that we gave you were actually the net level of support or opposition. And so one way to think about it is that, you know, essentially, like, 60-something percent of people were supportive of the—of using facial recognition involving, you know, criminal suspects, and even a little bit higher for surveillance of military targets, whereas about—whereas I think 70 percent of people were basically opposed to sort of general-population surveillance. What we were presenting you was the sort of net level of popularity or unpopularity. But maybe we can change that up next time. The—your question about sort of what is a criminal actually is a really good one. I mean, for the purpose—I’ll say for the purpose of the survey, we didn’t actually define that. We wanted people filling it out to use whatever definition that they would use in their communities, understanding that that might actually differ a little bit. But, you know, this to me is one of the big challenges when it comes to—when we think about applications of, say—I’ll continue using the example of facial recognition—when we think about the uses of facial recognition in the sort of police context. I mean, for decades you’ve had, you know, something like—you know, the FBI has had, say, databases of, you know, photos. And you’d say, like, all right, well, like, here’s a criminal suspect, and all right, like, let’s look through a book and see if we can find, you know, who the person is. I mean, that’s in some way like what a lineup is about, at the end of the day, like in a police station. The, you know, use of facial-recognition software is designed to basically give you the ability—and a lot of local and state police have been, you know, taking advantage of this—to then go through, you know, thousands and thousands of different, you know, pictures almost at—you know, almost instantaneously. And the upside of that is that when it works, it gives you the, you know, ability to potentially more quickly—to try to figure out, all right, who this suspect might be. The disadvantage can be when—that these—you know, that algorithms are probabilistic. You know, they’re not—they’re not calculators. So they tell you that there’s—all right, there’s a 75 percent chance that, you know, these—you know, the person in picture A and the person in picture B are the same. But that means one out of four times it’s wrong. And so just relying on those kinds of algorithms then can be sort of—can be potentially risky from a decision-making process, and there are then questions about how we think about that from an evidence perspective. And getting back to your question about sort of what constitutes a criminal, how we think about the—you know, if there’s a facial-recognition match with, you know, somebody who stole a pizza once, like, did they—were they technically a criminal? Like, unless they got off with a misdemeanor, like, maybe. But the—but then, does that mean that we have a presumption of guilt about them? You know, it gets—it gets in some ways back to all the same questions that police and, you know, law enforcement have to—have to figure out in general. It’s just, you know, the algorithm becomes a—is a tool. KAHN: Yeah. I would just add that emphasis about, you know, the algorithm being a tool and these kind of technologies being a tool, we don’t want to leave—I think a good way of thinking about this moving forward and for regulation in particular is, like, using these things, again, as a tool whereas a human’s still making the call. So it’s not up to the algorithm to decide what’s a criminal or what’s not; it’s there to provide you with information to help make a better educated decision about whether or not that’s the case. And so I think that is—I think also what people are scared about is, you know, algorithms making those decisions for humans, and I don’t think that those are actually going to be used in those cases yet. And the technology’s not quite there yet, I would say. As we’ve seen, you know, it doesn’t work the way we want it to work. We are incentivized for it to not be biased because, you know, if you have a biased algorithm, that means it’s not a correct algorithm, it’s not working at a higher accuracy level. And so it behooves us to kind of work that out and to, you know, take all of those recommendations from an algorithm with a grain of salt. FASKIANOS: So I think that’s a great segue into the next question, a written question from Ron Bates, who’s a councilmember in Los Alamitos, California: “How might AI replace current city workforce?” KAHN: I can jump in there. I would say, again, is, like, I firmly believe—and you know, again, I’m going to say this again—it’s like, algorithms and AI is a tool; it’s not—nothing, like, kind of replaces humans. We’re not at human-level machine intelligence yet. We don’t have robots thinking and being able to perceive the same way humans do. And so I think while certain jobs might shift, I think there will be use and ways moving forward for human-machine teaming. HOROWITZ: I would just—I would just add to that. I mean, I think it’s a—I mean, my off-the-cuff answer would be not if local officials have anything to do about it, given the way that our survey data suggests or the opposition of local officials to using algorithms as things like to make decisions, say, about hiring and promotion. But I mean, you know, like, jokes aside, we—you know, technological change changes the composition of the workforce, the—you know, the jobs that we need in the workforce, you know, how many people you need in a—you know, to make it run, you know, et cetera, all the—all the time. And it’d be—it’d be foolish to, you know, freeze in time our understanding of, say, what staffing a particular office should look like based on a snapshot of the—of technology—of technology then. I mean, think how much the composition of a lot of offices has changed even from—you know, say, like, from the ’50s to today or even from the ’80s to today. So I think that there are probably some positions—there are some things, essentially, that automation and that algorithms can help address. And let me give you an example less from the city worker context, more from the—you know, think about the way that in the banking world the rise of automated trading algorithms and how that’s changed the composition of some banking workforces. You know, you’ve had—there actually aren’t necessarily a lot fewer jobs at some banks, but some of those jobs are different in that you don’t need someone to sort of call an execute a trade in the same way, and maybe you need fewer people doing some of the strategy on trades. But you do need a lot of oversight of those algorithms to make sure that they are performing—that they’re performing appropriately. So I think it’s less that they will—you know, it’s not that the—it’s not that the algorithms are coming for our jobs, but they might change what some of those jobs are in a city. And the jobs that will be the least—you know, the jobs that are hardest to automate in some ways are the jobs that involve the least repetitive tasks and, you know, the highest level sort of cognitive judgment; whereas the more a task is just—you know, is, like, literally something one could imagine a robot doing, potentially, the easier it might be over time, potentially, for something to be automated. But even then, I don’t—I don’t think it’s necessarily, like, bad for jobs from a local-government perspective. I think what you’re talking about are potentially some different jobs and hopefully some technology, as Lauren said, to help people do their jobs more effectively. FASKIANOS: Thank you. Going next to David Sanders, who has raised his hand. Q: Thank you very much. So I am a city councilor in West Lafayette, Indiana. We have recently had an ordinance to ban facial-recognition surveillance technology. I am the sponsor of that legislation. I will say I guess I defined the rules. I am a scientist at Purdue University, so I actually know quite a bit about AI, and I’m concerned about its—concerned about its power and its use in the hands of government, and it’s specifically a government ban. I should mention it passed twice because that’s the nature of the ordinance, and it was vetoed by the mayor. And the—even though the measure doesn’t mention anything about law enforcement or police—it just refers to government—it was the police that objected to the—to the ban on the technology. So I had three questions I wanted—or three comments to which I’d like your response. The first is: When you’re talking about the difference between trying to use facial recognition to look at criminal activity and then contrast that with the lack of support for continual surveillance, in fact, the looking for criminal activity is dependent upon the continuous surveillance which is occurring, which is through Ring systems or through people’s taking, you know, cellphone videos of everything that’s going on. So, actually, those things, there’s a—there’s a great disparity between the support for those two items, but in fact they’re the same thing. There is continuous surveillance going on because of the nature of society. The second point that I’d like to make is that these are non-transparent commercial products which are being used for this surveillance. Neither the police nor the courts have any idea of what goes in that algorithm, and defendants have little or no way of finding out how those things were determined. And as you say—you’re correct in the sense that this is just one tool. There are other things that will—would go into a criminal case. But technology has a magical influence on, for example, jurors in a—in a court case. They tend to believe the technology. But in this case, as opposed to a technology like polymerase chain reaction, right, which is pretty readily understandable and you can actually go in and, you know, observe, you know, whether it’s being done correctly or not, this one is completely non-transparent. The final point I’d just like to make—I know I’m taking a lot of time, but I want—I think these are going to be interesting topics for you to respond to—is the distortion of law enforcement which occurs with this tool. And I often compare it to the drunk underneath the lamppost, right? The drunk is looking—is under the lamppost. Policeman comes up to him and says, what are you doing? He says, I’m looking for my keys. So the policeman says, OK, I’ll help you. They look for the keys. They can’t find them. The policeman says, are you sure you dropped your keys over here? And so the drunk says, no, I dropped them over there. Why are you looking over here? Because the light is so much better over here. And so will this not—the fact that we have this technology, will it distort the nature of law enforcement? Will there be less, for example, interaction with the community to try to identify suspects and so on and more just reliance on this technology? Thank you very much for your patience. KAHN: Thank you. I think your latter two points about the distortion and transparency both kind of connect to something else Mike and I are very interested in, which is automation bias, which is the tendency for humans to cognitively offload the task to the algorithm, right? Like, if you have something that pops up and suggests, hey, look here, to just defer to that, rather than if you were going to just look yourself and didn’t have something pop up maybe you might have ended up there but, you know, you might have looked a few other places first, right? And I think that gets to a really important part with training, which gets to another point where you mentioned about transparency and not knowing how these work, where people are just getting these technologies as a black box, don’t have a background, you know, in these technologies, don’t know how it works, and just like: Oh, look at this magic thing that it spit out at me. I love this. This is great. This is my answer. And so I think a really important part there is then, again, if they do want to use these and do want to use these in a responsible way, that training and learning how these technologies work and then instituting transparency and checking measures is a really important part of that. Like I mentioned, it’s a tool. And I think it—while it has the potential to be dangerous, it also has the potential to be very helpful if used in the correct way. But that does require certain parameters and a lot of training and effort. So it’s whether or not they’re going to be able to be willing to kind of institute those measures to check themselves. HOROWITZ: Let me—I agree with Lauren completely. And let me add a couple of things onto that. I think your first question’s really interesting because it gets to the difference between the, you know, continuous surveillance by accident and continuous surveillance on purpose. You know, think about the difference between—you know, like, the difference between the U.S. and, say, like, the U.K. or another—or a country with, like, a CCTV system where, you know—you know, like in London or something, on every corner there’s, like, a camera. You know, that’s not the kind of—the kind of surveillance you’re talking about is some ways the surveillance that comes from the individual technology purchases that we’ve made and our individual choices rather than from a government decision to create general surveillance. And I think that there is a difference between those that’s worth—that’s worth keeping in mind. But one of the things that I think ties together all three of your questions—and let me say, like Lauren did, I think that they are—these are really important, difficult issue. I mean, if they—we wouldn’t be having this conversation if they were easy to solve. And the—is that at the end of the day, to me, they’re all about people, in that the—like, the challenge of—like, the drunk under the lamppost story is a story about—is a story about, you know, the frailty of human cognition and the—and our—and our biases in the way that we make sort of judgments and then, you know, decide to—and decide to look for things. And the—you know, the story that you’re telling about the—about the court system is one about where under-resourced defendants often lack the tools to be able to respond to, you know, much better-resourced prosecutions. And the—you know, that can—that was true before AI, sadly, and that will be true in a world of AI. Which means that, you know, I think—I think humans are both the problem and the solution here, and that the better we are at, you know, recognizing these biases, making good policy choices, et cetera, both with AI and with other things, the better that we would be—better we’ll be in using AI. And you know, whether that’s to the point that Lauren made about automation bias and treating the—treating the outputs of algorithms as probabilities, not as calculators, or thinking about the—or thinking about training and education to create more baseline knowledge of how algorithms work and their limits, you know, that’s the path forward. Like, otherwise, we’re—it’s humans that are going to make the mistakes. FASKIANOS: Thank you. KAHN: And what I will—sort of a little hopeful, hopeful thing is that, you know, states are and countries and technology companies, you know, and international organizations are all kind of realizing this, at least in some part, and are advocating for both, you know, explainable AI, transparent AI, and you know, are setting out ethics guidelines for themselves to start addressing and frameworks to start answering some of these questions. FASKIANOS: Terrific. Thank you. Let’s go next, written question from Amy Cruver, and I don’t have an affiliation. But: “How easy or difficult is it to hack AI applications?” HOROWITZ: Sadly, easier than one might think. I mean, the—why don’t we put it this way? Like, I don’t—we don’t have a—I think the—I think the issue is not the AI. Why don’t—why don’t we put it this way? The issue is sort of cloud applications in general and the number of people whose passwords are still 1-1-1-1 or their kids’ birthdays or—you know, like all of the basic cybersecurity issues that exist out there in the world and that make, you know, things hackable, say, in your house or elsewhere apply in a world of AI as well. And I would add to that that the—you also have challenges where if you—you know, to Lauren’s point about sort of garbage in, garbage out, if you train an algorithm on data that’s inappropriate you’ll get outputs that aren’t as reliable. Or if you try to use an algorithm outside the context it was designed for, then it’s not—it’s probably—it’s not going to work very well. There are—you know, we can—I’ll save you from my speech about sort of military countermeasures and how—and how countries try to sort of spoof algorithms to fool sort of military AI, but there’s another issue there as well. I mean, maybe you could imagine criminals actually probably trying to do that, potentially. I don’t actually know. But the—but I think that the—I think the short answer is algorithms are potentially hackable on the front end if the data is biased. They’re potentially hackable on the back end. But the way—the reasons why they’re hackable are similar to the reasons why lots of things are hackable in the—in the information age, which is, again—(laughs)—about our bad passwords and related issues. KAHN: Yeah, I agree with a hundred percent everything Mike says. It’s really a matter of, you know, there’s—with any specific technology, there’s a unique angle in to make it break. If you really try to break it, you could probably break it. But I would say, yeah, it’s not significantly more vulnerable, in my—in my brain, than, like, anything else that we use as, you know, cloud technology or is on a cyber—is, you know, susceptible to cyberattack or data poisoning. FASKIANOS: Great. Let’s go to Christopher Flores next. Q: Hi, everyone. Thank you for the question. Christopher Flores from the city of Chino. I read in your guys’ article—I forgot exactly where I read it, but—that there was a—there was more support for AI uses. And I think this mentioned, like, areas like transportation and traffic and public infrastructure. That’s a big topic here in the city of Chino right now, so I just wanted to ask if you guys can highlight why—you know, why is there more support in that? And I mean, what exactly does that look like? And I’m asking from a person who doesn’t really have any—much knowledge in AI. KAHN: Yeah, absolutely. So I think some of this is actually really interesting. A lot of this varied. A lot of what at least I had seen during the research on, you know, specifically, like, autonomous vehicles in transportation and some of the traffic flow issues where a lot of people really highlighted in their answers the societal impact. And so the ability for, like, autonomous vehicles such as for people who can’t drive themselves to be able to be driven places, for people with disabilities, or to facilitate, you know, carpooling in efficient ways and to reduce strain on certain sort of infrastructures and to maximize the flow in and out of cities. So people are really highlighting, you know, the societal benefits that it would have, you know, to prevent drunk driving, that sort of thing in particular when it came to more vehicles and transportation, which I thought was very interesting. On the flipside of that, most people—a lot of the troubles of that was, like, they’re worried about implementation, and how willing people would be to use that, and how, you know, people are kind of—people like to drive. They like to drive themselves. And you know, it’s something that a lot of people do, and so taking that away from people was a little bit of a concern. But otherwise, in general, that seemed to be one of the more widely appreciative, I think because the benefits are so tangible, right? You can get in a car, in an Uber and kind of visualize what it would be like, OK, if an algorithm was driving me instead of another human being, or if I took a taxi. It’s kind of the same delegation. You’re still making that choice. So it’s not so much of a leap. So I think that’s why maybe it was a little bit easier and more well-supported than other sorts of realms. HOROWITZ: Yeah. Just to add to what—to what Lauren said, you know, we definitely found that people who prior to the pandemic reported that they had used ridesharing apps pretty regularly were more likely to be supportive of autonomous vehicles, which I think makes sense if you’ve already made—you know, as Lauren said, if you’ve made the—you’ve already delegated in some ways the decision, you know, off of yourself. And also, another, I mean, I guess—I don’t know, I was going to say fun fact. I don’t know if “fun fact” is actually the right word. But the—from the results there was that people in top auto-manufacturing states were also a little less supportive of autonomous vehicles, which I thought was interesting since we’ll still actually probably need lots of cars, even. But the—but I think that the—when we—if you—when we look at the mass—the, you know, horrific number of auto accidents and fatalities sort of every year, people want to believe that there’s a better way. But we also love driving. And so, I mean, and obviously, self-driving technology isn’t quite there yet, you know, media headlines aside. Like, arguably, not even close, depending on what, you know, some experts say. But the desire is there because the situation we exist in now, where you have sort of thousands and thousands of people that die every year in auto accidents, it seems senseless. Q: Yeah. And, well, thank you for that. And I asked because one conversation we had at a—at a recent council meeting was the idea of extending a freeway—the 241 freeway—and what happens is, to do that, there has to be, like, nine or ten agencies involved in trying to get that done. And it’s, like, that’s—you know, I’m not sure how many; we’re looking at maybe ten, fifteen, twenty years down the road. And I mean, I look at, you know, these cars you guys are talking about and it’s like, well, there’s our answer. (Laughs.) You know, there won’t be any traffic jams on the 71 and the 91 anymore. But I don’t know. Thank you for your answers. HOROWITZ: I think it—let me just add one other thing to that. I think it’s so—I think it’s a really interesting example, right, of how technology advance can advance faster than infrastructure or, you know, in our ability to—in our ability to respond. If it would take, you know, ten—I do not envy that job. If it would take ten regulatory agencies—and by the way, I’m sure you’re doing an amazing job—you know, ten regulatory agencies and fifteen to twenty years to, you know, like, add a lane to the—to the highway, and meanwhile, you know, technology’s continuing to advance and in ways that are not necessarily predictable, that actually creates a big challenge for then how to develop appropriate regulations. FASKIANOS: I’m going to stay with the autonomous vehicle. So Chris Johnson, who’s CIO for the Maine secretary of state, asks if you can speak to the difference in using AI for assisting with analysis and probabilities of matches quickly, subject to human consideration, versus using AI for high-stakes decisions such—his example—do you run over the child or the adult when suddenly your vehicle has no path by which to miss both? Or, you know, would you have to crash into the vehicle beside you to avoid? And then, also, if you could just talk maybe a little bit about how the regulation of autonomous-vehicle technology differs from that of surveillance. KAHN: Absolutely. That’s actually an interesting point because they’re based off of the same kind of technology, which is computer vision—you know, the ability for a computer to see with sensors, whether it sees roads or whether it sees humans. So it’s interesting that, like, the application here and how it’s specifically used really differs. I would also say that when it comes to specifically the question of, you know, how do vehicles decide, you know, what kind of decisions to make, you know, in the moment that have human ethical ramifications, there is actually a very interesting study that we cited in the paper called the human machine—“Moral Machine”— HOROWITZ: “Moral Machines,” yeah. KAHN: —that, like, did a survey of, like, a hundred countries and had an enormous sample size. And you know, that was a—that was not a clear indicator, you know, given people situations of car. Like, if based on who’s in the car and who’s crossing the street and what you know about them, what kind of decision should the car make? And that actually really varies. It’s not a—there’s not a universal answer, right? That’s the classic trolley-car problem. And it varied a lot between different countries. You know, very—you know, United States in general had different answers than if you get to more—you know, when you have individualistic cultures versus collectivistic cultures, the answers really differed. So there’s no universal ethical, like, what should they do in this situation. And it’s like, do you maximize, you know, the potential for X or do you minimize the potential for Y. And so I think that’s a really hard decision. And again, that comes back to what Mike had said earlier about, you know, humans are the problem but also humans are the solution there. It’s like whatever you put in, it’s still going to be a human value. And so deciding what those are will require a lot of self-reflection. HOROWITZ: Yeah. I would just add to that that I think the—you know, we sometimes think about these choices as all or nothing, right? Like, either it’s a—it’s a self-driving car and, like, the car is choosing the, like, response in that crisis. You know, you—I think—I think it’s—if humans are—if we can get humans to continue to pay attention, it’s easy to imagine some sort—you know, hybrid kinds of options where you have cars that, you know, essentially are, you know, cruise control on steroids but in a—in a crisis situation are alerting drivers to take over. Because, you know, that—because that gets to that trolley problem question. You know, do you, you know, crash into the car next to you, run over a person, et cetera? You know, it gets to lots of questions about liability and insurance rates and, you know, who’s responsible for any harm that happens. And, like, those are—those are really complicated, then, regulatory questions as well that insurance companies, lots of, you know, state legislatures, et cetera, are going to have to work out. FASKIANOS: So Tom Jarvey (ph) had raised his hand but lowered it, and so I just want to give the opportunity. I’m not sure if it was a mistake to raise it or to lower it, so. Great. Over to you. Q: I’ll try and be quick because I might have a phone call coming here. I just—I am totally off the subject of—(inaudible). Thinking of—the comment that was made earlier by the gentleman comparing PCR DNA testing to AI facial recognition had me thinking about the pros and cons of that, you know, realizing that DNA testing has, thankfully, exonerated many people who were wrongly convicted. At the same time, when we are—we do have a case where—and I am in law enforcement—where we do have a case where DNA is available, the pool that we test that against is a pool of largely previously convicted people. So, therefore, your chances of getting caught with DNA are greater if you’re already justice-involved. So I’m curious, thinking in the other direction, whether or not AI could be used to, in facial recognition, maybe balance that out if you have a larger pool. I would just like your comments on that, and I’ll mute now. HOROWITZ: I mean, that’s a really tough question. I mean, in some ways it gets back to the—if you think about the way that you—you know, you train an algorithm on a—on a set of data. The broader the set of data is, the more diverse the set of data is, the more accurate your algorithm is probably going to be, whether you’re talking about, like, identifying cats or identifying people. And the—but it’s a—it’s a—it’s, like, the issue you raised is a huge challenge in that in some ways the pictures the police are most likely to have are going to be people that have been in the legal system in one way or another as well. And so the same issue that we have with DNA matching you could imagine with facial recognition, depending on what—and this is a place where you could imagine there eventually being federal regulation about this. You know, like, certainly the, like, big tech companies have enormous databases of all of our faces from the varieties of things that people do sort of on the internet in that—where we upload our pictures. And so if you think about some of the controversies about Apple surrounding that from a couple months ago, the—so there is the potential for, then, say, like, a facial-recognition algorithm to draw on a broader database, why don’t we say, but whether they—people—you know, law enforcement should have access to that database is, I think, something that hasn’t been decided yet by our society, and where there are some real differences of opinion that get to, you know, real basic privacy questions. Like, if I haven’t been in the legal system, should some police department have my picture anyways? I don’t know. I mean, I could—I could see people making those arguments. FASKIANOS: OK. Go ahead, Lauren. KAHN: I just agree a hundred percent. And I think, you know, we probably sound like a broken record, but it again gets to, like, how you use it. And AI and especially, you know, computer vision and, you know, attempts to make cars that can see and, you know, algorithms that can see, it all depends on the dataset that you have. And that’s kind of how we operate now. It just seems a little bit more tangible because you’re physically collecting it, I would say, but it’s trying to make a representation of reality as close as you can as possible. So the bigger and bigger you get, the better your algorithms are going to be. But again, like, how much—how much do you want to actually grant that? How accurate do you want it to be? And how much do you want to forego? There’s going to be tradeoffs for anything, and again, it ties back to how much you’re willing to give up privacy and whether you use only publicly available sources, whether you are only limited to these sorts of sources or there’s, like, you know, state-approved datasets you can use. We’ll see how that kind of falls into place. FASKIANOS: OK. So I’m going to take the next written question from Sanika Ingle, who is in the office of the Michigan House of Representatives: “What is being done to ensure AI technology is being executed without implicit bias? We have already seen the insidious”—insidious—“effects of AI technologies misidentifying suspects in criminal cases, not being able to collect accurate data when it pertains to people of color. Do you agree the development of AI technology is often at the expense of minority groups? And how do we address this?” KAHN: Yeah. I would say yes. And we even see that in our, you know, data, where categorically women are less supportive of these technologies. And you know, some people might say, like, oh, they’re just not the tech bro interested in it, but I don’t think necessarily that’s the case. I think, you know, minority groups and women and other kind of groups of people will have ramifications that won’t necessarily impact, like, you know, other groups, where you’ve got—for example, if you feed a bunch of pictures to a training algorithm and say, like, these are all pictures of doctors, and a lot of them happen to be male and a lot of them happen to be, you know, not people of color, you’re going to get them—the algorithm thinking, oh, like, these are what all doctors look like, and excluding those types of people. So I definitely think that it is a conscious thing that you have to do. And again, it depends how you’re training the data and who you have working in developing these technologies. And I think I’ve seen, you know, some technology companies in particular trying to address this and, you know, try to get better, but it’s a matter of we just need—we need more people in STEM, I think, in those kind of categories as well. And we should promote education to people to integrate them, because the people making these technologies will be the ones that shape how they work. So I think that’s an important part there. HOROWITZ: Yeah, I agree with that. I mean, this is a question of how to—if the—algorithms trained mostly on sort of White men will be less effective at identifying any—less accurate at identifying anyone else, and we’ve seen this sort of time and again in facial recognition in, you know, anything from sort of academic research to some real-world criminal cases. And there are—I think there are pathways for those algorithms to improve. I also think there’s some degree of bias that might be inevitable just like in lots of non-AI areas there’s also bias. FASKIANOS: I’m going to go to a raised hand, but I want to just quickly as this question from Richard Furlow, who’s the alderman-majority leader in New Haven: Do you know how many cities nationwide are using AI to identify criminal behavior? HOROWITZ: The best data that I’ve seen—and Lauren can correct me if I’m wrong—if that the—about one in—I don’t know the—about one in four law enforcement—like, law enforcement communities, why don’t we say, sort of in America have access to facial recognition and are not prohibited from using it. Now, how many are actually using it on a regular basis I don’t know the answer to. But the—and this is not specific to cities. But the—but the stat I’ve seen is one in four. KAHN: An important part to distinguish there is, too, is, like, when you get to artificial intelligence, it’s a—it’s a broad category, right? And when you get to facial-recognition technology, as we’ve seen over the course of this conversation, it’s broad. And so, in addition to that, it’s hard to know exactly what they’re using them for. For example, there was a recent GAO report that, like, did a survey of, I think, like, twenty-four federal organizations and found that, like, you know, eighteen of them were using facial-recognition technology, but fourteen of those were people—they had given iPhones to their staff and, you know—you know, the iPhone now unlocks with your face, so that was considered facial-recognition technology. So I think the what and, like, how they’re using them is the really important part, and that I’m less sure on. So the one in four is a—is a guidepost that—yeah. FASKIANOS: That’s for your next study. KAHN: Yeah. (Laughs.) FASKIANOS: Or survey. HOROWITZ: Yeah. FASKIANOS: You can add it to your list. So I’m going to take the next question from Stephanie Bolton, who’s director of the Consumer Affairs Division of Maryland. Q: Hi there. I am, yep, the director of consumer affairs for the Public Service Commission of Maryland. And in a previous role, I was law enforcement-adjacent. And my question about AI kind of goes to witness identification and what kind of standards we hold our AI to. Witness identification of a suspect, especially a suspect of a different race, is notoriously lacking and has been for quite some time. There have been a number of studies in that realm. And I was wondering if, you know, hypothetically, if this technology should take off and AI can be used for facial recognition in criminal cases, are we going to hold it to the same standard that we hold, you know, human identification to, where we understand that there is room for error, especially when it comes to a(n) individual that maybe we don’t know, maybe we hadn’t seen before the incident? Or are we going to hold the AI to a much higher standard? HOROWITZ: Thanks for your question, Ms. Bolton. I mean, I think—I think the honest answer is you’re probably going to make that decision, not me. And by that, what I mean is the—you could imagine a situation where, in an effort to conserve resources, you know, somebody—you know, we decided as societies at the local level that algorithms that were almost as good as people were OK. You could imagine a world where we decide as a society that we’re actually going to set the—we’re going to—we’re going to take the best research on the accuracy of people at, say, identifying, you know, a—you know, best data on witness identification and say an algorithm has to be as good as that. You could also imagine deciding that, you know, at the end of the day we’re a community of humans, and we want to be the ones making the choices, and so the standard that we would set for an algorithm actually needs to be, you know, 10 percent better, 20 percent, 30 percent better than people are because we’re, you know, removing humans from the process a little bit and so we want to affirmatively make sure that the algorithm is better. But I think that this is going to be a choice we will end up making, whether implicitly or explicitly, sort of at the ballot box and then through local regulation. KAHN: Absolutely. And I think another point—like, not to—you know, we’ve talked a lot about the potential negative effects, which I think is very valid and we should be absolutely talking about these concerns. But the reason why we’re even discussing this in general is because the technology has shown to be, you know, really excellent in some situations and better than humans in some situations, which is why it’s appealing, you know, to free up space to do other things and to use humans for, you know, cognitively more demanding tasks, necessarily. And so I think making these calls is, like, it’s going to happen. It’s going to happen soon. And I think that is—these are very important questions to ask. But yeah, it is—it’s up to, you know, local and state legislators. They’re going to be the ones making the decisions. FASKIANOS: OK. Putting the onus back on all of you on this call and your colleagues. So I’m going to go next—and I know David Sanders has a follow-up question, but I want to try to get as many different voices in as possible. So we’ll try to get to you. So Fazlul Kabir is a Council member from College Park, Maryland, and wanted you to talk a little bit about AI/machine learning-based smart predictive system in the area of crime trends, loss of tree canopies et cetera. HOROWITZ: Yeah. I think that’s the—you know, an area where you would expect AI to do pretty well, are areas where you can, you know, aggregate lots of data and where we think that the dataset is pretty good, and then forecast. So I would actually think that tree canopies would be a pretty good use case for algorithms if you’re trying to—if you’re trying—you know, because you can—you could input all that data. You could actually—I mean, I could imagine how you’d do that, actually, pretty easily. So that, I think, is a good use case. Crime trends, the—I mean, in some ways the—you—I think that the—it depends on how good you think the data is on where—on how—how good are sort our crime databases are and the extent to which you think that conditions in those—how static you think conditions in those communities are. The challenge is that as communities change, then models built on older data may be less applicable. And so that’s the kind of thing where you’d almost need to be—if you were going to do that, you’d need to be updating incredibly constantly to be able to make any, even, I think, pretty basic predictions. I mean, that would be a pretty controversial use, I think, of AI. I don’t know. What you do you think, Lauren? KAHN: Yeah, I would say so. But I—at the same time, it’s this is the part where you—it’s not really different than what people do already. If you’re talking about looking at data and seeing what’s happened in the past and trying to find indicators for, like, why X might have—might have happened or why Y might have happened, and then sticking that in a model, that’s not very—versus a human doing that or, like, you know, an algorithm doing that, it’s not really different, right? It’s crunching numbers. And so I think it depends on, like, when you get to the after effect of the, like, OK, but, like, are you going to make decisions or make judgments based on that data that’s, like, projected, is that—and whether you’re going to have a human or an algorithm do it. That’s a little bit more tricky. But I think just for, like, guiding and research purposes, if you’re sticking an algorithm on, like, oh, like, where do we expect the trees to be—canopies to be in, like, ten years, or how do we project, you know, crimes going in this area and, like, what have the trends been, I think that’s a very, you know, different kind of use case versus actually making predictive, you know, choices or specifics about individuals versus aggregated data. FASKIANOS: OK. I’m going to just quickly read this question from Lisa Gardner: “It sounds like AI may pose a replacement risk for the entry level and/or lower-skilled workforce. Would that be correct?” HOROWITZ: I don’t think it’s lower skill. I think it’s about repetition of task. And you know, what—we as a society, we define what we think, like, is skilled or less skilled. You could imagine a lot of entry-level roles where the tasks one is doing are actually pretty diverse, both in sort of manual labor category and in the white-collar community. And so those would be actually, you know, potentially a lot more difficult to replace, whereas there could be people that are higher skilled but are basically, like, doing the same thing all the time and perhaps a computer could do it faster. So the—I think it’s less about necessarily entry level and it’s more about repetition of task. And to the extent that one—there are some entry-level jobs where the tasks are very repetitive, those would be at higher risk. But the underlying thing is, I think, not about necessarily the, you know, sort of skill level. KAHN: Right. Absolutely. FASKIANOS: All right. Well, we are ending right on time. And I am sorry we could not get to the other questions in the Q&A box or raised hands, but we’ll just have to revisit this topic and also look for your next research paper and survey. And if you haven’t had a chance to read it, please do. So, Michael Horowitz and Lauren Kahn, thank you again for sharing your expertise with us today. And to all of you for your insights, your questions/comments, really appreciate it. Thank you for all the work that you’re doing in your local communities. And as you heard today, the decisions rest with you. (Laughs.) So we’re looking to see what you all do. You can follow Dr. Horowitz on Twitter at @MCHorowitz and Ms. Kahn at @Lauren_A_Kahn. Of course, come to CFR.org to follow their policy and analysis, as well as our other fellows. And follow the State and Local Officials Initiative on Twitter at @CFR_Local, as well as go to ForeignAffairs.com for more expertise and analysis. Please do email us—[email protected]—with feedback or topics that you wish we would cover, speakers, et cetera. We’re all ears. We’d love to hear from you. And thank you both again, and stay well, and stay safe, everybody. KAHN: Thank you. HOROWITZ: Thanks a lot. (END)
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    Vaccines and Variants with Dr. Leana Wen
    Play
    Leana Wen, emergency health physician and former health commissioner for the city of Baltimore, Maryland, discusses how state and local governments can prepare for and respond to COVID-19 variants and future public health emergencies.   FASKIANOS: Thank you. Good afternoon, everybody. Welcome to the Council on Foreign Relations State and Local Officials Webinar. I’m Irina Faskianos, vice president for the National Program and Outreach here at CFR. We’re delighted to have participants from 49 U.S. states and territories with us. Today’s discussion is on the record. As you know, CFR is an independent nonpartisan membership organization, think tank, and publisher focusing on U.S. foreign policy. We’re also the publisher of Foreign Affairs magazine. And through our State and Local Officials initiative we serve as a resource on international issues affecting the priorities and agendas of state and local governments by providing analysis on a wide range of policy topics. So I’m pleased to have with us today Leana Wen. We previously shared her bio with you so I’ll just give you a few highlights, and to say that we will need to end a little bit early because we are perfectly placed. President Biden is announcing his pandemic vaccine plan at 5:00, but an embargoed copy has been released. So we’ll be able to hear some insights from Dr. Wen on that. Dr. Wen is an emergency physician and visiting professor health policy and management at the George Washington University Milken Institute School of Public Health. And she is the author of Lifelines: A Doctor’s Journey in the Fight for Public Health that was just released in July. Previously she served as health commissioner for the City of Baltimore, where she led the nation’s oldest continuously operating health department. Dr. Wen is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and has received numerous recognitions, including one of Time Magazine’s 100 Most Influential People. Dr. Wen, thanks so much for being with us today. It would be great—I’m just going to throw it open to you—over to you to talk about the current state of the COVID-19 pandemic, and where we are now, and any insight you can share on what we will hear from President Biden shortly? WEN: Wonderful. Thank you very much, Irina. I’m glad to join you and also glad to join our state and local officials. I mean, what a time it’s been for all of you, for all of us. And I just, first of all, want to say thank you, because you are really on the frontlines. And I think you’ve all seen too how unfortunately COVID has become so polarized, so politicized. And you are the ones who are delivering messages that people don’t necessarily want to hear. And I think you’re on the frontlines in more ways than one. I mean, you’re also on the frontlines of getting and dealing with misinformation, disinformation, but also in harassment and in messages directed at you in ways that are totally inappropriate. But you still do the work and serve your communities, and I just want to thank you for them. Now, I don’t think that we’re in a very good place at all in the U.S. I mean, we reached a point back in June/July where we were seeing consistent declines in the numbers of infections. We were down to just over 11,000 daily infections. But now we’re seeing these surges, to the point that we’re having about 150,000 new infections every day. And I was just looking at where we are now compared to last—to Labor Day. We are now at 300 percent the level of COVID-19 infections compared to last Labor Day. We are at more than—at two-and-a-half times the level of hospitalization compared to last—compared to a year ago. And we’re at nearly twice the level of death compared to last year as well. And so in total, that is not a good picture of where we are, especially because we have vaccines. I mean, my colleague at CNN, Dr. Sanjay Gupta, was just saying that if you had shown us these statistics a year ago we might have said, oh, well, in that case we didn’t develop a vaccine, because it would seem hard to believe that we have vaccines that are safe and very effective, but we would still be at this point. And why are we at this point? Because only 54 percent of Americans are fully vaccinated. Now, we could have avoided this point if it were not for the Delta variant, but also if it were not for the fact that so many people remain unvaccinated. And so Irina mentioned the announcement that President Biden is going to be giving. I have an embargoed copy of the plan that was embargoed until 3:30 Eastern, which was, you know, half an hour ago. So I can now talk to you about the plan. But it’s a six-prong strategy that really would not surprise any of us who have already—who have been following this. I mean, it talks about testing, masking, and keeping school safe. It goes into a lot of detail about vaccinations. And I think that the Biden administration is using many of their levers in order to increase vaccinations. Not as many as I would like, and I’m happy to talk about that too, but there is a lot that they are doing. So for example, they are announcing that all federal employees and also contractors with the federal government now need to be vaccinated. There’s now not a testing opt-out option. Another big—another big item that’s going to come is they are directed—the federal government is directing—or, the White House is directing OSHA to develop a rule that requires vaccinations for—or testing—or weekly testing for all companies that have one hundred or more employees. That’s a big deal. That’s 80 million Americans who would be affected. In this case they are giving an opt out. They are saying: Either require vaccinations or weekly testing, but I think that is going to be a big deal. We know that many businesses have already voluntarily taken the step of requiring vaccines, but also a lot of businesses have not. And so I think this gives businesses cover that want to do this. And now they can point to OSHA and say, hey, this OSHA rule is coming. That’s why we’re doing this. I think that will be really important. But, I mean, I wish the federal government would go even further—for example, requiring vaccinations for travel, for interstate travel, for planes and trains. And in the meantime, I wish that we would do more to abide by actually what the CDC recommendations are, which, as you know, are requiring indoor masking in places with substantial or high transmission, which is most of the country. That is not the case. I mean, my—you know, I think there is this cognitive dissonance sometimes that we have. We—and I’m sure you all experience this too—we talk to some people who are pretty blasé about COVID, who might be vaccinated or even are unvaccinated but don’t really think that COVID poses much of a threat. And on the other hand, we have people who are really afraid of COVID, are not resuming many aspects of pre-pandemic normal, cannot wait to get booster doses, et cetera. And I think we’re living in this very strange, bifurcated world at the moment. But in any case, I think that there’s a lot of work. To summarize, we are not at the place that any of thought or wished that we would be at this point. But I think there is a lot that we can do to get us to a much better place. FASKIANOS: Thank you very much. We’ll go right now to questions. You can raise your hands and unmute yourself and tell us who you are and—to give us context of the state from which you—where you’re sitting. Or else, you can write your question in the Q&A box. And if you write your question, it would be great if you could include your affiliation and I will read it. So the first raised hand—sorry as I am juggling. How long have I been doing this? Is Liz Johnson. Mayor Liz Johnson, if you could unmute yourself. OK. I’m going to go next to Councilman Wilkerson. And we will come back to the mayor. Go ahead. Q: Hi. How are you? FASKIANOS: Fine, thank you. And where are you tuning in from? Q: I am from Killeen, Texas—in the wonderful state of Texas. I would like to ask Dr. Wen—first of all, thank you for having this forum. I would like to ask you to get a little more into depth about the concerns that we should have about school systems, because a lot of our municipalities are working with our school districts, and the concern that some may have or some not have with the opening of the school districts at this time of year. WEN: Yeah. It’s a really good question. And I know this is one that we’re all wrestling with in different ways. You know, recently I was on a Post—on a Washington Post podcast with Hannah Nathanson, who is the educator reporter for the Post. And she made a comment that really stuck with me. It was something about how at this moment—I mean, based on her reporting all over the country—the range of what we’re seeing in terms of this piecemeal approach to reopening schools is as wide as one can possibly imagine. I mean, you’ve got some places that are going above and beyond the CDC recommendations when it comes to the layers of protection—which, you know, is good, right? I think the CDC approach of talking about layers of protection, that we need as many of these layers in possible, kind of like in the winter when you’re cold. You know, you want as many layers as you can. And if you’re replacing—if you’re removing one layer you replace with another. So if we can no longer do distancing, we’re replacing it with having as many adults being vaccinated as possible and doing regular testing, indoor masking, et cetera. You’ve got that one extreme. Then you’ve got many schools reopening as if it’s 2019, without any restrictions at all and without any kind of indoor masking, unclear even what their protocols for quarantining and isolation are. I mean, I’m very concerned. I mean, I think essentially, we have subjected our children to a natural experiment that they did not sign up for, where children in different parts of the country are exposed to dramatically different environments. The schools that are relatively responsible but are not implementing all these measures, I think they’re going to see a lot of cases. And hopefully they’ll be quarantining students accordingly. Although, of course, the consequence is that children are going to be missing out on school. I guess from a public health standpoint, I and many other experts are really worried. I mean, we’re really worried about the consequences. We’re really worried about why we’re even doing this in the first place. You know, when we know what it takes for schools to reopen safely, why aren’t we doing everything that we can? I’m the parent of two young kids. I have a four-year-old also who just started preschool. I’m here in Maryland, and I feel so fortunate that I live in a jurisdiction where we do—we are following all the—all the guidelines. But I would really worry about—if we were living in a different area. I worry about all these parents who are being subject to very different types of environments. So I’m not sure that I’m quite answering your question. Q: Well, yes, that was helpful. As far as statistically speaking, I know that there’s a consensus out there, or there’s some who may think that children are less susceptible to this, of course. And I think that the science has kind of played that out. But to what—to what level should we really be concerned with sending our kids back into a school environment? And also, you know, what kind of innovative ways can we do—because I’m the parent of two school-age—well, actually, one’s in college and one’s in high school. How do we get the message out to the kids from a municipality standpoint? And maybe you can speak to something as far as what President Biden’s going to announce today. How can we make the importance of being safe in this type of environment for those type of kids, for kids that are entering into the school system? WEN: Yeah. I mean, you make a—you make some really good points. And I think one thing that we need to make very clear is that children are affected by COVID. There has been this untrue, and I think very unhelpful and dangerous, narrative that somehow children are not affected by COVID. And it’s because of a comparison that never really should have taken place, as in what we have been saying from the beginning—which actually is true, but it’s not helpful in this context—is to say then, well, the majority of people who have died and have gotten hospitalized are older people. It is definitely true, and also true that children make up a small proportion of the total number of individuals who have become severely ill. Also it is true that children tend to become much less severely ill than adults from COVID. But that is true for so many other illnesses as well. Children are resilient. Children are not supposed to die. I think that is the key that’s missing here. I mean, when we’re looking at what’s happening around the country, we know, of course, that kids twelve and old are eligible to be vaccinated, but under twelve they are not. When we have something like the Delta variant that’s so contagious, what’s gone on is that those who are left to be infected because of this very contagious variant are children. And children are now being—are now being affected in large numbers. In fact, the American Academy of Pediatrics just released the number saying that more than one in four of the new infections are now occurring among children. We are now having more than two hundred kids being hospitalized every single day around the country. Tens of thousands of kids have been hospitalized during the pandemic. The hospitalization rate for children is 2 percent. So 2 percent of kids getting COVID are now getting hospitalized. And hundreds of kids have died. Thousands potentially could have long term consequences from COVID. I wrote an op-ed back in June about what if we had looked at this differently and instead of comparing kids’ outcomes to adults, what if instead we said: There’s a new illness out there, and that illness only affects children. And by the way, hundreds of children, including previously healthy ones have died, tens of thousands have been hospitalized. How might we react to that kind of news? I mean, that is what’s happening. COVID is now one of the top ten killers of children. I mean, that cannot be acceptable to any of us as parents or as members of society. It’s our job as adults to protect our children. And I guess the final thing that I would say here is when asked about this issue, in particular in relation to schools, isn’t it our job as adults to protect our children? And if that’s the case, then what are we willing to do to do that? I mean, I guess I find it hard to see. Again, I have a four-year-old. I don’t think it’s very difficult—my four-year-old thinks that wearing a mask is just fine. That’s really all he knows, frankly. And, you know, wearing a mask and not going to school when you’re sick and doing regular testing, that doesn’t seem like a big price to pay in order to safeguard our children. Q: No, Dr. Wen. Thank you very much for that education, because that’s the first and most powerful thing I’ve heard about the advocacy for masking up and getting vaccinated for children entering into the school system, because a lot of us don’t know this is a top ten killer of children at this time. So that’s very powerful, necessary information. We can pass it onto the citizens to make sure that we’re doing the right thing. Thank you very much. FASKIANOS: Thank you. I’m going to go next to William Murray, who wrote a question and also has raised his hand. Q: OK. Well, thank you so much for participating. This is really a great thing. There’s so many questions that local officials have. We’re confronted daily with rising rates here in our own village, the village of New Paltz in the Hudson Valley and upstate New York. One question I had that I wrote about is—or, questioned, is that with the high transmissibility of the Delta variant, there doesn’t seem to have been any modification to recommendations to prevent spread. All that we’re reading is the same sort of information based upon, you know, variant A, if you will. But given how much more potent this one is, one would think there would be changes in ventilation recommendations, distancing recommendations, that sort of thing, given how quickly it can spread. Any thoughts on that? I haven’t seen anything from the CDC upping—you know, maybe we should be eight feet apart, or maybe we should all be wearing three-layer masks, or maybe, you know, ventilation systems aren’t going to be able to handle this particular variant. WEN: Yeah, it’s a really good point that you’re making. And you’re right that we are dealing with something different here. I mean, not totally different, in that we’re still talking about a respiratory virus. It’s still spread through the same route. But the Delta variant is a lot more contagious. And when something is more contagious, it means that the activities that we once thought were pretty safe are now going to be higher risk. And so also we know, based on a study done by the Chinese CDC, that an individual carrying the Delta variant carries one thousand times the amount of virus compared to somebody with the previous variants, which I think is also—just tells us something about the transmissibility of this variant compared to before. And I think another reason why our schools, as they are reopening, we really need to take every precaution. You know, what the CDC has done—and I think this is the right thing for them to do—was to reinstate or was to encourage local jurisdictions and states to reinstitute indoor mask mandates. And that’s something that I know some states and cities have done, but the majority have not. I wish that they would do this. I mean, we really understand about how transmissible the variant is, and having indoor—at least having indoor mask mandates is important. I would add—and I agree that the CDC has not said this—but I would add that a cloth mask is not sufficient. We should at least be wearing a three-ply surgical mask when we are in public places. And I would recommend if people are in higher risk areas and traveling, for example, with prolonged exposure, for long periods of time, close quarters with people, to be wearing an N-95 or KN-95 mask. We know that the quality of mask definitely matters and it’s also something that very much impacts the wearer as well. Now, another element that I do think—I mean, I think you make an interesting point about should we be changing anything about distancing or anything else. I mean, I think at this point my major concern is that people have just really let down their guard. My family and I were at the beach over the holidays, over the Labor Day weekend. We were in an area of the country that actually has generally—last year we were there at the same place. They had mask mandates and everybody was wearing masks in grocery stores. This time maybe one in five, one in ten people were wearing masks inside a public grocery store with a lot of people. I’m more concerned that people are not following the rules that we already have. FASKIANOS: Thank you. So in the interest of time I’m going to group some questions here. So Keith Hooker. Will the OSHA rule/guidance on vaccination apply to state and local governments as well or only to private businesses? And somebody else asked—let me find it—about would they also apply to colleges and universities? State Representative Lori Gramlich from Maine. WEN: I do not know the answer to these questions. I mean, those are the questions that I have as well. I don’t know. My understanding is that the White House has directed OSHA to develop this rule. The rule has not even been developed yet. And so I don’t know. But I think that’s something that we should ask for clarification from the Biden administration. FASKIANOS: Great. I’m going to go next to Susan Hairston, who has her hand raised. Q: Thank you, Irina. And thank you, Dr. Wen, so very much. I have been dying to hear from you all. I’m a councilwoman in Summit, New Jersey. And we have an amazingly high vaccination rate in our town. And I am shocked by the number of increasing incidences. And so it really does beg to ask, is what we’ve been doing not making a difference? And it seems like it’s ammunition for the people who are opposed to it. And so I hear you loud and clear that we have to keep insisting on the norms about mask wearing and social distancing because there’s a competing interest. Business is saying: Open up. Let me us get back to normal. Let us get back to making jobs, stopping unemployment. And all of these things are competing. And so what I wanted to ask you about, do you think there is the threat of a shutdown being necessary, since we have Delta, we have Lambda, I hear there’s another one. Would that be something that would be a short-term effect? We’ve seen it happen in other countries. I believe that’s Australia and China continues to do that. And then the other thing that I’m finding alarming is it is our police and fire and some of the first responders who are some of the folks who are not getting vaccinated. And that’s been a challenge. And so I’m just wondering, is a shutdown something that might be on the horizon? I know it’s really an awful thought, but I just don’t understand. We feel like we should have learned so much more about this. Thank you. Appreciate what you’re doing too. WEN: Well, thank you for the excellent questions and for the points that you’re making. So a few things: One is that I don’t think we should say that just because things are in the wrong direction that our efforts were for naught. We don’t know our own counterfactual, right? I mean, had we not increased our vaccination programs much earlier, had we not implemented mask mandates much earlier, had we not done all these things that you all have been doing, and doing education and outreach, imagine where things would be now, right? I mean, I think we can’t think about, well, things are terrible now and therefore there was no point to doing all these things. Actually, it should be, well, what more can we—what can we—what more can we do? Well, we know that—I really believe that in this country—not necessarily in other countries, where the cultural contexts and political dynamics are different—but in this country I strongly believe that vaccines are our best and only way out. And that’s because the restrictions, the lockdowns that we’re seeing in other countries are never going to happen. I mean, New Zealand, Australia, they closed down the entire country for a couple handful of cases. That is never going to happen here. There is no political will to do that, even in places that might be amenable to doing these things. I mean, there is just no—the thing with our country, as I think you all know firsthand, is that the places that have the outbreaks—the largest numbers of outbreaks—are also the places that have resisted mask and vaccine mandates. So to think that these places would somehow go for lockdowns, that is just not politically tenable. It is not going to happen. And understanding that reality, we need to do what else we can. And that’s why I think the Biden administration focusing on vaccines is the right step, because that’s the only politically tenable thing that we are able to get through and to get done. And so to your question about new variants that may arise, I mean, Delta is the issue for us at the moment. And that’s because it is so highly transmissible. When something is so highly transmissible, it displaces all the other variants that there are. And so, yes, there are Mu, and Lambda, and these other things that are on the horizon. But if they’re not more transmissible than Delta—and we don’t know whether they are. So I’m not saying that it will never happen with another variant. But Delta has taken this foothold here because it’s so highly transmissible. Could there be new variants that develop that are more transmissible, more virulent, more deadly, and that somehow evade the protection of our immune systems and the vaccines? Possibly. But that has not happened yet. FASKIANOS: Just to group a couple of questions in the chat, how much of—the data on how much of the surge is due to unvaccinated compared to breakthrough cases in the vaccinated population? Can you give us the stats, and how this is very different considering the new variants? And then there’s another question about do you know when the approval will come through—this is like we all wish we had the crystal ball—for children under twelve? Those of us who have children under twelve, right? Do you know what the timeline is now for that? WEN: Yeah. I might need you to remind me what the previous question was because I got so distracted by this—the kids question, as it’s so top of mind with two little kids under the age of twelve. The most recent—the most recent projections we have are that Pfizer, which is going to have data first, that they will submit for emergency use authorization for the FDA for kids in the six to eleven-year-old group—or, maybe the five to eleven-year-old group, sometime in late September. Authorization could come as early as late October to early November, that group. For younger kids, probably not until 2022. And I’m sorry, Irina, the first question? FASKIANOS: So just the first is just what is the data of— WEN: Oh, breakthroughs. FASKIANOS: The breakthrough—the surge—how much of the surge is due to the unvaccinated and how much is due to the breakthrough cases? WEN: Yeah. I mean, it’s hard to have these exact numbers because we don’t have the capacity to do a lot of contact tracing in this country. But based on the numbers that I have seen we know that the vast majority of those who are hospitalized and dying are those who are unvaccinated. Numbers ranging from 95 to 99 percent. So very high numbers of those who are severely ill are the unvaccinated. I’ve also seen numbers that greater than 90 percent of those who are infected are those who are unvaccinated, compared to those with breakthrough infections. We also have a more recent CDC study that looked in the post-Delta world, after Delta became dominant, that a person who is vaccinated is twenty-nine times less likely to be hospitalized compared to somebody who is unvaccinated. And also, that a vaccinated person is five times less likely to contract COVID to get a breakthrough infection than someone who is unvaccinated. So I think there has been some confusion, probably because the messaging from the federal government has not always been great. And I’ve written about the CDC’s messaging issues also. But one of the—one of the things that came out is that I think there has been some misunderstanding about, well, who is more likely to spread COVID—somebody who is vaccinated or somebody who is unvaccinated? Even if it’s true that a vaccinated person and an unvaccinated person, once infected, could both carry the same amount of virus and be just as contagious—which we don’t even know that that’s true. But let’s—even if that’s true, a vaccinated person is five times less likely to get COVID in the first place compared to an unvaccinated person. So if it were me, and I had the choice to sit in a conference room with ten vaccinated people or ten unvaccinated people, I would choose the ten vaccinated people every single time because they are five times less likely individually to have COVID compared to the unvaccinated people. So I think that’s important to note. And I know this is not exactly what the question is asking about breakthrough infections, but I think many people are also asking—and all of you as officials might be getting this question too—of, well, what is the purpose of getting the vaccine if you can get a breakthrough infection? Well, here’s the answer: Nothing is 100 percent, right? (Laughs.) Nothing in life is 100 percent. We don’t stop wearing seatbelts because somebody who had a seatbelt was in a car accident that landed them in the hospital. I mean, that’s not—we don’t stop doing that. You don’t stop taking your insulin because you could still have an exacerbation of your diabetes. And in this case, there’s actually a direct link because if you—the more—so some people will often ask too, well, what is my risk of having a breakthrough infection. Your risk depends on how much virus is all around you. So if you are vaccinated, we know that the vaccines protect you very well but not 100 percent. That means that the more virus is around you because of the unvaccinated, the more likely you are to get exposed to COVID and to get ill. And I think that is really important to take into account. FASKIANOS: Thank you. I’m going to go next to Kevin de Leon, who’s raised his hand. Q: Thank you so much, Irina. And thank you so much for facilitating today’s conversation. And, Doctor, thank you so much for the information. Just a really quick comment and perhaps your thoughts. I mean, one of the concerns I have with regards to the CDC was the criteria when it came to who would be first in line when it came to the vaccination. And clearly in California we’ve lost over 66,000 individuals to COVID virus. Slightly under half of them are from L.A. County. And the vast majority of people of color, but in particular Latinos, Asian Americans, African Americans. So when the criteria was sixty-five-plus, for L.A. County, you know, to illuminate that statistical data point, that meant 86 percent of Latinos were not eligible to actually secure the vaccination. And many of them are frontline workers, essential workers, living in very dense neighborhoods with multi-generations under one roof—grandma, grandpa, mom, dad, kids. A lot of them did not have Blue Cross/Blue Shield, Kaiser, HealthMed, access to HMOs, PPOs, what have you, et cetera. Yet, they’re the one community who were most eviscerated and the ones who were standing in line waiting to pick up a box of food just to feed their children. And the only thing that’s standing between them living out on the streets and keeping a roof over their head is an eviction moratorium, which in L.A. actually extends one year. So for the future, with regards to the booster shot—a third, you know, vaccination—what are your thoughts with regards to targeting those communities that have been hit the hardest as opposed to the generic CDC 65-plus, at the time when the first wave of vaccinations were available? Thank you so much. WEN: Yeah. It’s a great question. And I also just want to mention that I grew up in the L.A. area. I grew up mainly in the East L.A. area, and I went to Cal State L.A. for undergrad. And so very much appreciate the work that you do from a personal standpoint, and certainly know of the communities that you’re referring to as well. So with booster shots—and, again, many questions around booster shots. What we know about the vaccines is that they continue to provide excellent protection against severe illness, but that it looks like their protection against milder breakthrough infections does appear to be waning over time, and especially with the predominance of the Delta variant. I’m actually not so concerned as I was in the first instance when we were first making vaccines available, because that was literally a life-or-death issue, as in in the process of waiting—especially some of these communities that you mentioned that are particularly vulnerable, that are frontline workers, that are communities of color, with low income, multigenerational housing, et cetera—that some of them could have died. If they had—if they had gotten vaccinated earlier, they might have survived. And so I think that’s a—that was a really big injustice, right? And that’s a huge inequity and that’s a major issue. I’m much less concerned now with the booster shots, because the boosters still protect—or, even without the booster, you’re still well-protected against severe illness. That said, I think—I hope that equity continues to be a focus for the Biden team going forward. But I also think that—you know, again, I’m just less—because this is not the life-threatening issue as it was in the first instance, I see it as a less pressing concern as it was before. FASKIANOS: Great. Thank you. There’s obviously a lot of misinformation. There are a few questions about this. Is it a crime for TV or radio personalities to knowingly misinform people on issues like COVID, or can they be held accountable? Is there anything the CDC or the federal government, can they mandate anything, you know, to deal with that? And just to talk a little bit about—there’s some misinformation about people who’ve gotten vaccinated who have died. So and that linkage that maybe they died because they got the shot. Can you talk a little bit about those numbers and put in perspective of, you know, other vaccines and the percentage? WEN: Sure. I mean, I think one of the difficulties with the numbers is there are people who just die, unfortunately, right? I mean, there are people every day who are dying unrelated to anything with COVID. But I think sometimes those deaths have very unfortunately been linked to the vaccine when that is really not the case. That said, there had been a handful—really a very small handful of individuals who actually have died because of—specific to the Johnson & Johnson vaccine and the rare blood clotting issue associated with it. It’s really tragic, and we now know about this issue. But everything in life is about risk/benefit analysis. And in this case, when you look at the fact that 1,500 Americans are dying today because of COVID-19, and the number of lives that the vaccine is able to save, that’s the calculation that have to make at the end of the day. And so I think we really need to talk about how this is—these—we have vaccines for a reason. We don’t want people to get an illness that otherwise is preventable. The—by and large, the side effects are very mild, they are temporary, they are—people fully recover from them. And the—what we need to fear is COVID and not the vaccine. The other issue that—about misinformation I think is a really important one. I mean, the surgeon general, Dr. Vivek Murthy, has announced that misinformation is, in itself, a public health crisis. And I think that’s a very important point. But I think we also—you know, I’m not a lawyer, so I don’t know—I don’t know how to answer the question about accountability and information. But it is of course, as you all know, a challenging issue of free speech versus the necessity of providing—of providing accurate information. I think having—for me, I was born in China. My parents left China because of the crackdown on free speech. And so for me the idea of limiting people’s speech makes me very uncomfortable. But I also—(laughs)—you know, agree that there’s more that, in particular, social media platforms can be doing so that messages aren’t amplified. FASKIANOS: Right. Amy Cruver put in the chat: Can you share the studies that validate masking in the chat and discuss natural immunity compared to medical vaccines? I don’t know if you can share maybe some of those studies that we could send out to the group, or you could put in the chat, but we can also circulate it for people. I want to make sure we get you that information. WEN: Yeah. And actually, I’m going to put in the chat now all of my recent op-eds. And you can flip through. I’ve written a lot on children recently. But my most recent op-ed is exactly on this issue—which is on the so-called natural immunity versus immunity from vaccination. And, you know, my point in the op-ed is to say, look, if you recover from COVID, just as if you recover from other illnesses, you do get some level of immunity. We don’t know whether it’s better than or not as good as getting vaccinated. But we do know that if you get vaccinated on top of having COVID-19, of having recovered from COVID-19, you have even better immunity. My husband had COVID before the vaccines were widely made available. There was no question that I was going to recommend that he gets the vaccine. And in fact, we now know from a CDC study done in Kentucky that people who are fully vaccinated after recovery are—well, we’ll put it another way. People who are unvaccinated are twice as likely to get reinfected compared to people who got COVID and then got—and then the vaccine. The point that I was making in the op-ed is we should not wait for natural immunity. The price to pay is just too high. By the way, same thing for other vaccine-preventable diseases. We don’t wait for children to get measles, because a substantial portion of them are going to get brain damage. We don’t wait for people to get polio because a substantial portion will have irreversible paralysis. We don’t wait for people to get COVID, because people have long-term consequences, and brain fog, and could end up in the hospital and die. And so that’s why we have vaccines. FASKIANOS: OK. There’s a question—just to clarify something that you said. You said that COVID-19 is the top ten killer in children. Was that for all disease or all—just comparing to diseases or just death for children? So they wanted clarification. WEN: I believe it is death for children. Again, it’s one of the op-eds that I wrote recently that I will find for you and post in the chat. FASKIANOS: Great. All right. So I’m going to go next to Representative Lori Gramlich from Maine. Q: HI. Thank you. And thank you so much, Dr. Wen, for this opportunity. This is really informative. My question has to do with—Maine has done a really great job, in my opinion. And I’d love for you to partner with our CDC director, Dr. Nirav Shah. He’s been fantastic. But we have seen our seven-day average in Maine back in June be right around twenty COVID cases. And as of today, we’re up to 359 COVID cases, which is, you know, obviously an incredible increase. We have hospitals that are seeing increased COVID patients. And we’re really getting to a tipping point. And I’m sure Maine is not the only state where we will have little to no room for other patients with emergent issues. And I know that you can appreciate that as a physician. What kind of protocols do you, in your medical perspective, suggest that we try to implement in terms of folks that could prevent this from happening by getting the vaccine versus somebody that presents with a cardiac event who may not have a space in the hospital? This is really—this is really going to, I think, get much worse before it gets better. And I really appreciate your thought and perspective on that. Thank you so much for the work you do. WEN: Well and thank you for your work and leadership. And Dr. Shah is a friend and colleague who is doing great work. And so you’ve certainly got a wonderful top health official there. He is also the president of the—of ASTHO, which is the state and territorial health officials, and has been doing a wonderful job there as well. So I like the idea of listening of to Dr. Shah’s advice on the ground and his—and his public health guidance there in Maine. But, you know, I think that part of it is—I don’t have a good answer to your question. I mean, the easy answer, of course, is the—we need a combination of approaches. We need to increase vaccinations. We need to get regular testing—which we really need to do a lot more of, by the way. We haven’t talked today so much about testing. We talked about masking, but not so much about testing. Imagine if everyone were to be tested every week, or even twice a week? That would be—testing is not, in itself, a preventive measure, but if people are tested that regularly you’re going to pick up a lot—on a lot more cases that we otherwise might not have. I think part of the issue, and one that we as a country have not really wrestled with, is what is our end goal here? What is the endpoint? What’s the endgame, right? What are we aiming for? We’re not going to get to what Australia, New Zealand, and some of the Asian countries have tried of zero COVID. That’s just not going to happen. But are we OK if we reduce COVID to the level of the flu? I mean, are we going to be OK with about forty thousand deaths every year? Maybe. Right now we’re at half a million deaths a year. So I think getting down to forty thousand would certainly be better. But is that what we’re OK with? Are we OK just getting to the point that our hospitals are not getting so overwhelmed that patients with heart attacks can’t get care? I mean, what is our end goal? And I don’t think that we, as a society, have actually defined that. FASKIANOS: Great. Just going to—the concerns about how fast the vaccine was developed—how fast. The mRNA technology, and there’s been a lot of people worried because it was developed in less than a year. But can you talk about the underlying—what came before, so that it really ramped it up and we were in a good position for this vaccine? WEN: Yeah. I’m glad you mention this because this is one of the common questions that we get, is somehow about the speed of development. Well, this vaccine has—this platform for developing this vaccine has been undergoing science—a scientific research for over a dozen years. And so saying that this is new is not exactly an appropriate way of framing it. It’s a new vaccine because it’s a new disease. But the—because that technology was already developed for so long, this was essentially a plug and play. And that’s what it’s going to be going forward, that if there are new variants that end up developing you plug into this mRNA technology and it’s able to be used in the future. This vaccine, just like others, work in a similar way. Which is, the idea is that if you were to get exposed to a disease you would have immunity going forward. But instead of having you to go through that sickness, and disease, and potential death, instead you get exposed to a component that stimulates your immune system. That’s exactly what the mRNA does. Some people have questions about well somehow is this going to interfere with my DNA. Your DNA is in the nucleus of the cell. The mRNA never enters your nucleus. And so there is no chance that it’s going to be interfering with your DNA. And so I think those are important components to mention for those of you who have to—those of us who have to answer questions about the vaccine. FASKIANOS: Right. There is a question about symptom reductions from different viral treatments. We’ve heard a lot in the news about ivermectin and other things. Can you just talk about ivermectin and other early treatments, versus the monoclonal infusions? What’s the difference, et cetera? WEN: Yeah. Well, I think it’s really important to talk about what works and what doesn’t. We now know that if you have severe COVID that what works if you’re hospitalized are steroids, remdesivir and anti-viral medications, supportive treatment. And you could get ventilation, oxygen, et cetera, if you’re very severely ill. To prevent you from reaching that stage, once you have gotten a diagnosis of COVID, monoclonal antibodies made by Regeneron, Eli Lilly, et cetera—those are—we know that those help to prevent you from ending up in the hospital. So those are meant to be treatment that you get while you have mild illness early on in the course of your illness to prevent you from being hospitalized. There have been other things that have been studied. Plasma, hydroxychloroquine, ivermectin, vitamin D, zinc. All these things have been studied as: Could they also keep you out of the hospital if you get mild illness? And so far, all the evidence points to no. Ivermectin is an antiparasitic that’s—we hear that it’s used in farm stock, I livestock, but it’s also used for parasites, for scabies. So it is a medication that’s used. There have been ten randomized controlled trials—a really great systematic review that was done in Journal of Clinical Infectious Diseases last month—or, I think back in June, maybe—in June or July—that looked at these ten randomized control trials of ivermectin. And they found that even if they’re used in small dose, or large dose, or several days, or one time use, that it does not contribute to a reduction in hospitalization, or symptoms, or mortality. So ivermectin, hydroxychloroquine, all these things are not—have not actually been found to be helpful in preventing or treating COVID. FASKIANOS: Great. And with that, I am sorry, but we are going to have to end early, because I know you have to react to this—President Biden’s announcement. So thank you all. There are so many questions, raised hands. I’m sorry we couldn’t get to you all. But, Dr. Wen, we really appreciate your spending these fifty minutes with us. It was really terrific. And for all the work that you have been doing. Again, I commend to you all Dr. Wen’s book, Lifelines. Also, in the Washington Post she has a new newsletter called “The Checkup with Dr. Wen.” So you should sign up for that. I have. And we will send out a link with—to this webinar so you can share it with your constituents, as well as some of the other resources she mentioned, studies. We’ll collect that up and send it to you all so you can look at it in detail. So thank you all again for being with us, and thank you for all the work that you’re doing, as well as you, Dr. Wen. You can follow here on Twitter too, @drleanawen. So take care, everybody. And please follow the State and Local Officials initiative on Twitter, @CFR_Local. You can go to CFR.org, ForeignAffairs.com for more expertise and analysis. And you can let us know how we can continue to support the important work that you’re doing by emailing us at [email protected]. So thank you all again. Take care. (END)
  • State and Local Governments (U.S.)
    Foreign Policy on the Home Front
    Play
    Nina L. Hachigian, deputy mayor for international affairs for the city of Los Angeles, and Charles A. Kupchan, senior fellow at CFR, will discuss the role domestic issues play in shaping U.S. foreign policy.   FASKIANOS: Thank you and welcome to the Council on Foreign Relations State and Local Official Webinar. I’m Irina Faskianos, vice president for the National Program and Outreach here at CFR. We’re delighted to have participants from thirty-six U.S. states and territories with us. Thank you for being with us. This discussion is on the record. As you know, CFR’s an independent and nonpartisan membership organization, think tank, and publisher focusing on U.S. foreign policy. CFR is also the publisher of Foreign Affairs magazine. Through our State and Local Officials Initiative we serve as a resource on international issues affecting the priorities and agendas of state and local governments by providing analysis on a wide range of policy topics. We are pleased to have with us today Charles Kupchan and Nina Hachigian to talk about foreign policy on the home front. We previously shared their bios with you, so I will just give you a few highlights. Dr. Charles Kupchan is a senior fellow at CFR and professor of international affairs at Georgetown University’s Walsh School of Foreign Service. From 2014 to 2017 he served as special assistant to the president and senior director for European affairs on the staff of the National Security Council. And he also served as the director for European affairs on the NSC during the Clinton administration. He’s the author of many books, including Isolationism: A History of America’s Efforts to Shield Itself from the World. And that was released last year. Nina Hachigian is the deputy mayor of international relations for the city of Los Angeles. From 2014 to 2017, Ambassador Hachigian served as the U.S. ambassador to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN. Previously she was the senior fellow and senior vice president at the Center for American Progress, where she focused on U.S.-China relations. So thank you very much to both of you for being with us. I thought we would first turn to Charlie. You recently published an article in Foreign Affairs, the magazine published by CFR, entitled The Home Front. So I thought you could kick off and tell us about the role that domestic issues play in shaping U.S. foreign policy and the forces that influence public opinion on international affairs. KUPCHAN: Thank you, Irina. And thanks to you and your colleagues for putting this together. I wish that I had more opportunity to speak to folks in local government and city government and state government. I think it’s a conversation that needs to happen more and more often. And I take my hat off to my friend Nina. She used to be a foreign policy conehead just like me, but she has—she has rolled up her sleeves and she now works in city government. So kudos to you, Nina, for making that transition. I’m going to take a few minutes just to reflect on where we are as a nation in our engagement abroad, toss it over to Nina to say somethings, and then I look forward to a free-flowing conversation. We are, in my mind, at a historical inflection point in American foreign policy in which we are having a broad national conversation about our role in the world, where we should be engaged, how we should be engaged, and the extent to which we should be engaged. And I think in many respects it’s a debate that has its roots in the 1990s—actually, the 1700s, but let’s say more recently the 1990s—because that’s, in my mind, when we began to engage in what I would call overreach. The Cold War came to an end. Frank Fukuyama, who is now a Californian, pronounced the end of history. And I think we really did believe that we would fulfill the calling that the founders laid before us, which was to bring ideology, bring ideological competition to an end, and that liberal democracy would work. And I think that led us to take on too much. We overreached strategically. We overreached ideologically. And we overreached, in my mind, economically. That’s really when we threw the doors open to globalization and assumed that the more we traded, the lower the tariffs, the more we lived in an international economy, the better all would be. And then 9/11 comes along and we overreach even more. It was the combination of the attacks of 9/11, coupled with belief that finally the French Revolution, that finally democracy was coming to the Middle East, that we set about trying to turn Afghanistan and Iraq into Ohio. And guess what? It didn’t work. And we’re now living with the consequences of it not working because we are in the midst of getting out. And the consequence—the aftermath of us getting out, it’s not going to be pretty. But I do think that what we’ve been living through for the last four or five years is a reaction to this sense of overreach that has pervaded large swaths of the American public—Democrats and Republicans alike. And in many respects, I see the Trump era as a response to a primal scream in the American electorate that was basically: Too much world, not enough America. Stop this globalization train, I want to get off. Too many wars, too much free trade, too many immigrants, too many pacts, too many alliances. It’s enough already. I think Trump’s response to that impulse was errant. He caused much more damage than good. And in many respects, I see Biden as the person who now needs to find the right kind of response to this reaction in the American electorate of too much world not enough America, what about us. And that brings me to the final things I wanted to say. And that is, in many respects I think Biden is sensing the same discontent in the American electorate that Trump did. That’s why he’s pursuing what he calls a foreign policy for the middle class. He understands that for many working Americans the quality of life has declined dramatically. That sense of economic insecurity, the sense that globalization has advantaged many Americans. But too many Americans, a small segment of the population, has coupled and been conflated with identity politics, with immigration, with the sense of too many immigrants coming in due to globalization. And economic insecurity and identity politics have led to this sense that we need to rebuild the domestic foundations of American engagement abroad. In my judgement, and I’d be interested to hear Nina’s judgement, Biden has it more or less right. What we need to do to fix this problem is invest in American workers, invest in health care, in childcare, in infrastructure, in technology, in the manufacturing sector. That’s the lesson that we learned from the early Cold War years. Why did America engagement work abroad? Because everybody’s boat was floating up, because all Americans felt that they benefited from globalization and international engagement. We now need to go back to a brand of engagement that works for all Americans, not just for a select few. And that will require massive domestic investment of the sort that I think Biden is attempting to push forward. This is a moment no less important and dramatic than the New Deal era, the 1930s, when we need to deal with the country from the inside out. Foreign policy begins at home. If we don’t get it right at home, we’re never going to get it right abroad. Our challenge today is not China, it’s not Russia, it’s not extremist ideology. It’s us. It is the question of, will we get our momentum back? Will we rebuild the nation’s political center? Because that, to me, is the starting point for rebuilding our engagement abroad. I will stop there. FASKIANOS: Thank you, Charlie. Nina, over to you to talk about the role of cities and some national government on what you’re doing on the home front. HACHIGIAN: Thank you. And thanks to CFR for having this conversation. I’m really excited to have it. Great to see Charlie and Irina, my friends. I’ll just start by saying I really agree with pretty much everything Charlie said. And you know, we—my coauthor and I wrote a book in 2008. And that was sort of our conclusion, was we really need to invest in the United States. And it’s so great that—we started out—we started out by writing about how we respond to rising powers. And that was our conclusion. And it’s just fantastic that we’re having that real policy discussion now. But let me just start by, you know, at a very high level in talking about cities and states and localities and foreign policy. It might be a topic not familiar to many of you. I apologize for boring the ones that—who know this, or who work in cities. And let me start by also just describing my city a little bit, because it matters. L.A. is the second-largest city in the U.S. Our county is the most populous. We have huge, numerous diaspora populations, the largest population of Mexicans outside of Mexico City, largest Korean, Chinese, and Vietnamese populations in the U.S. And altogether we’re about 40 percent foreign born. Third-busiest airport in the world pre-COVID, et cetera. And I’ve only ever worked in federal government before this role. You know, all three branches, overseas, and in the U.S., but always at the national level. And I have learned a lot by working for a city. Humans, at least so far, are physical creatures, much as that’s annoying to us at some times. But so what we experience happens in discrete places. Many of our needs have to be met where we physically are. And states and cities and localities are charged with meeting those needs, first and foremost for security. In that same book, we concluded that foreign policy ought to prioritize security challenges that could kill Americans where they lived. And we cited, as examples, a pandemic which could come from wet markets in southern China. Not to say that we were especially prescient, but just that the security community was well-aware of that challenge at the time, and since obviously. Climate change, terrorist attacks. But what I didn’t give any thought to at that time was the role of city government and local government. And in many cases, it is states and cities which create that bridge from national policy to actual Americans. And on a domestic side, these grooves are very well-worn. L.A. gets federal assistance to build metro lines, to fight poverty, and many more kinds of programs. But local government is also active in foreign policy in a number of ways. At the most basic level, cities and towns grow people. So we raise future innovators, development workers, entrepreneurs, diplomats, soldiers. And depending on local decisions and conditions, the results can be better or worse. And what I think about a lot these days, amid talk of competition with China, is that it has four times the population that we do. Four times the brains, four times the muscle. And so we had better well optimize the chances for each and every American to realize their full potential. We have no time for racism or misogyny. And we better well make sure that every child has access to high-quality, affordable early-childhood education, because that is determinative of so much of the rest of people’s lives. And I really see that as a foreign policy challenge. And it’s almost entirely in the hands of local government and its local partners to implement it well if they are given the resources. And of course, all the other places that Charlie mentioned that we need to invest in. But there are more direct connections also. So climate change, this transnational security challenge, cannot be solved with the federal government acting alone—even with all the political will in the world and vast agreement that climate change exists. But cities’ willingness and aggressiveness to build public transportation, to install car chargers, to recycle wastewater, to require renewable energy on our grids, will have a major impact in the U.S. reaching its goals. So having a federal partner is essential, but it’s not sufficient. And thank God during the Trump years states and cities kept up the tempo of investing in zero-carbon solutions. And COVID is another obvious example. So thank God that the Biden administration is working hard on vaccines. But at the end of the day, shots need to go into arms, and that happens in thousands of actual places. Thousands just even within, you know, Southern California and, I don’t know, tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, millions across the country. But vaccines need to find their way, you know, to vulnerable communities who may not speak English, who may not trust the health-care system. So localities have to do this last mile job in partnership with local communities. So I’ve mostly just described the work of my colleagues in city hall. I’ll just very quickly touch on what my shop does, which is—sounds like more traditional foreign policy. So the only difference being that I need to answer the question of whether my work is really benefitting people of Los Angeles. So not just in terms of stability or in terms of, you know, U.S. influence, but really tangible benefits. So we work to create jobs, we try to solve global problems that affect L.A., we try to give young Angelenos especially global skills and experiences, and then we support domestic and foreign partners. The jobs piece is pretty straightforward. The only thing that I’ll say is that nonstop flights are an overlooked and underappreciated feature of strong bilateral relationships. And so we would like a U.S.-Vietnam nonstop to come to L.A., not just for its economic benefits but because Vietnam’s an important strategic partner. And then we’re a part of a lot of city networks. I’ll just quickly touch on two. C40 is the megacities around the world who are all trying to reduce their carbon emissions. And Mayor Garcetti chairs that. And then we started one on gender equity with six founding cities—Tokyo, Mexico City, Freetown, and two others, London and Barcelona. There’s a newer network that I’m interested in on—called the Pact of Free Cities that the four—Visegrad four capital cities have started about transparency and anticorruption. We started a program to send community college students abroad on their first trips, oftentimes their first time on an airplane. And then the final bucket looks just very traditional diplomacy. You know, we have over one hundred consulates here. President—or, Prime Minister—although, he goes by president—Sanchez of Spain is visiting at the end of the week and we’re going to be doing some activities with him. We do have a lot of head of state visits, and we talk with Paris about—and Tokyo—about Paralympic and Olympic games that are coming up for us. So a final thought, which is that we are really playing catch up. American cities are new to the party. A lot of our European, Asian, African, Latin American counterparts have been up to this city diplomacy stuff a lot longer than we are. Some countries are investing very heavily in it. And then just to say that I think the Biden administration is absolutely right to try to try to break down the foreign and domestic policies silos. And I do think that, to the degree that they are seeking to create a foreign policy for the middle class, that states and cities and localities can be really important partners for them. I think we need a cultural shift. And hopefully that will begin with conversations like this one. FASKIANOS: Fantastic. Thank you very much for that. And let’s go to all of you now for your questions. You can either raise your hand by clinking on the “raise hand” icon, or you can type your question in the Q&A box. And if you do type your question, please identify yourself. When I call on you, also do the same, and remember to unmute yourself. And the first question goes—is going to Frank Cobbs, who’s the mayor pro tem from Riverdale, Georgia. So over to you, Mayor Cobbs. Q: I’m sorry. I do not have a question. I’m not sure why my hand was raised. (Laughs.) FASKIANOS: That’s OK. Do you have a comment? Or would you like to share what you’re doing in Georgia? Q: No. I’m enjoying the—other than enjoying the conversation. I’m very pleased with it. FASKIANOS: Fantastic. OK. Sorry to put you on the spot. OK, nobody has raised their hands, so I will ask the next question until somebody else. HACHIGIAN: Can I ask a question of Charlie? FASKIANOS: Yes. HACHIGIAN: Why do you think, Charlie, it has taken so long for us to have this conversation about investing in the U.S. in a real way? KUPCHAN: It’s an excellent question, Nina. And I’ve been conjuring that myself. I think that part of—part of the answer is that there has been a disconnect, and that at least in both parties, Republicans and Democrats alike, were not in sufficient touch with what was going on at the local level, what was going on in heartland America. You know, when I was—when I was in the Obama administration, and you probably have these conversations as well, we knew that there was a problem. We knew that inequality was growing. We knew that Microsoft and Intel and Bank of America had a seat at the table when it came to U.S. trade negotiations and farmers and service workers did not, right? We knew that. But we just didn’t realize the scope of the problem. And one of the silver linings of the Trump era is that we now realize the problem, right? And that’s because we’ve lived through one of the scariest moments in American history. I don’t know about you, but the last four years spooked me big time. I would go so far as to say that we’ve lived through a near-death experience for American democracy. And anybody who just turns his or her back on that is crazy. What we have to do is learn lessons from that. And one of the lessons I take away is the system hasn’t been working for lots of Americans. And now that the bell has rung, we have no choice but to get out there and address the problem, big time. If we don’t, we do—we behave at our own peril. And I’m now breathing a little easier. I mean, I have to say had we had this discussion a month ago, and I—and Manchin was saying I’m not going to change the filibuster, and I’m not going to do this, and I’m not going to do that, and the Republicans were saying no infrastructure, I hate—now we at least have a picture. That is to say, a fairly sizable bipartisan infrastructure bill—a trillion (dollars) or so. Then another three-plus trillion (dollars) through what’s called reconciliation. Now there’s—it seems to me that there is a political pathway to going big. And that’s what I think we need to do. You know, in some ways I think it took the Trump era to tell us that we needed to go big. FASKIANOS: Thank you. We have a raised hand from Brian Andrews, deputy mayor of Cranford Township, New Jersey. Q: Hi. Thank you. Thank you all for doing this. Can you hear me all right? FASKIANOS: We can. Q: Great, thank you. And good to see you, again, Ambassador and Charlie. I don’t know if you remember, I was at State Department during the first Obama administration working specifically on ASEAN issues quite closely, before returning home and getting involved in local government here. And so I greatly appreciate your comments. And, you know, I’m curious for your thoughts or advice on this. Like, I think if you look at Los Angeles or any large city, kind of the international connectivity is self-evident, I’d argue. Like, the direct flights you mentioned. But, like, there’s more weight—throw weight behind it. And here, you know, we are a town of about twenty-five thousand people. Many people who commute into New York. We do have, like, a number of businesses kind of local, as well as kind of, you know, larger exporters. But, like, how would you think about or advise kind of the local government to think about the international piece? And, like, we’re exploring kind of like a sister city program with a town about our size in Japan. And that’s one piece of kind of the cultural connectivity. But really curious because I think that’s part of it. Like, we want to build up greater local-level support for the international engagement agenda. Like, is there a play for local government here? Like, what would your advice be on that subject? Thank you. HACHIGIAN: I can start. I think it’s a great question. I would say, to start with your residents and what their, you know, issues, concerns, connections are. If you have a sizable diaspora population of any kind, to—you know, to try to gather them and celebrate their, you know, cultural heritage. I mean, the sister city stuff, you know, we have a bunch of them as well. And I tend to not think about them. But on the other hand, having that—those really long-standing relationships are kind of great. And, you know, they can morph over time into more kind of robust engagement on policy issues. Another thing to think about is, like, if you have a particular problem that you’re trying to solve in the city to try to identify a foreign city that is trying to solve that same kind of problem. So to think about, you know, a small commuter city outside of, I don’t—you know, Mexico City, or, you know, any of the big cities. And to think about—you know, to have that conversation with them would be another place, you know, to start. Exchange programs are great. You know, sending students or doing virtual classroom stuff and welcoming students, I think those pay a lot of benefits down the line. You don’t see the benefits right away, but you see them over time. So those are just a few—you know, a few thoughts. I guess another one would be to work with folks who are exporting to, you know, have them fund these kinds of international programs, because they might have a little bit of a—you know, some skin in the game already. KUPCHAN: I’d just add a couple quick points. I think your question is very important, because it does underscore the degree to which we now live in a world that is irretrievably interdependent and globalized. And this, for me, was one of Trump’s greatest mistakes. He thought that he could respond to the discontent by pulling away from the world, pulling out of the WHO in the middle of the worst pandemic since 1918. Pulling out of the climate agreement. Pulling out of trade deals. We can’t do that. We can’t go back to a world where we raise these big moats and think that we can be fine. And that’s why we’ve got to figure out a way to rebuild the country from the inside out and keep us engaged, but in a way that works for average Americans. Two things come immediately to mind. One is, as Nina just said, figure out how to connect local and small businesses to export markets. Because a lot of small companies, a lot of businesses owned by families, they don’t have the bandwidth. They don’t necessarily have the revenue to play the game that the big companies do. And so I think local governments can represent them in trade councils to make sure that their interests are heard at the table in the U.S. trade rep. Because they can get in the game if their voice is heard. And then a lot of this doesn’t have anything to do with foreign policy. It’s, as we were saying about domestic investment, getting investment in high tech, getting broadband into rural areas, rebuilding roads and infrastructure. I mean, I grew up in Wisconsin. And I don’t go back very often but I talk to friends of mine that I grew up with. And I say, what the hell’s going on there? You know, this—what I read about Wisconsin bears no resemblance to the state that I grew up in, which was very centrist, very harmonious. And the answer is that if you now go to Janesville, or Beloit, or some of the small towns in northern Wisconsin that used to be doing fine, they’re not doing fine. Their schools are closing. Their main streets are falling apart. We need to get domestic investment to those communities so that they can get back on their feet. HACHIGIAN: Can I just make one other comment that Brian’s question illustrates? Which is that—so I, in Los Angeles, the second-largest city in the United States, feel just—well, feel under-resourced or just about resourced right in terms of our international relations. Which means that every other city—(laughs)—and county and town and probably state in the United States feels even more under-resourced than I do, with the exception maybe of New York City because they have the U.N. and they’re very—you know, pretty U.N.-focused. And Penny has a relatively, you know, generous staff. Or, at least did, you know, like a year ago. But Shanghai has a hundred people in their international relations department, as one example. And you know, and that’s not unusual in other parts of the world. So we—you know, just to foot-stomp, you know, the idea that we’re kind of slow to the—we’re slow to this table in America. FASKIANOS: So, Nina, as you—what are you doing in your—in L.A. to help the citizens of L.A. understand the implications of foreign policy on their life? I mean, how do you make that connection—so, to Brian’s question—and, again, I’ll just—for all of you, please also. You don’t need to ask a question. You can share what you’re doing in your community, because we do want this to be a forum for best practices and to cross-fertilize ideas. So please do raise your hand if you want to share something. HACHIGIAN: You know, we’re lucky that we have a very internationally minded mayor. So he draws these connections, you know, a lot. On the climate work, you know, we’re talking about it all the time because we are trying to bring a thousand cities to the COP, all of whom have made a pledge to be net zero by 2050 and half—(work their share ?) of half by 2030 of the mission. So that’s, you know, something that we talk about frequently. With diaspora populations, like, many of them, they are themselves the links to other places. They are—you know? So, you know, they—and tensions or wars or whatever abroad often spill out—spillover to having tensions between communities in Los Angeles. So, you know, it’s fairly tangible in a lot of ways to folks. But I do think that—I do think that mayors and governors could be messengers of why foreign policy matters. I mean, this is a conversation we’ve had my entire professional career—(laughs)—is, like, why don’t voters, you know, care more about American foreign policy? And I think that, you know, it does affect us, but we don’t—but, you know, we—someone who is a local politician can make that connection in a way that—you know, that the elites in D.C.—no scorn on you, Charlie—but, like, have a hard time making that case. And I think that it’s just another role that—if empowered—that local officials could have. FASKIANOS: Thanks. Sorry, I had to unmute myself. We have a written question from Canek Aguirre, who’s a councilperson in Alexandria, Virginia. Are there any resources for localities to utilize to expand some of the foreign relations with other cities besides the sister city programs? HACHIGIAN: Unfortunately, not that I know of. But, you know, write to your congressperson. So there is legislation right now pending before Congress. Or, maybe—I don’t think it’s been reintroduced yet, but it was in last year’s Congress and I understand that it will be reintroduced. Bipartisan legislation to create an Office of City and State Diplomacy at the State Department. That’s kind of a first step. There was such an office, differently named, under—when Secretary Clinton was there. And then obviously nothing under Trump. So the idea is to create a permanent office and to send foreign service officers to cities and states the way they once were as part of the Pearson Fellowship. And my hope would be that there’d be also some resources that, you know, could be—that, you know, local governments could bid for, on some sort of a competitive process, if they wanted to do projects. So I wish I had better news. (Laughs.) FASKIANOS: OK. There’s a written question from Mobeen Bhatti, who’s a policy analyst in the New York State Senate Committee on Internet and Technology. Should there be a national, foreign, or trade policy component in the strategy when it comes to procurement and purchasing from foreign companies at state and local levels? And how would that really work? You know, is there any concerted effort to study the relationship of state or local contracts going to foreign companies and federal trade policy, especially when the federal administration is of a different party? HACHIGIAN: I’m not sure what that question is getting at. I mean, there is the CFIUS process. Maybe that’s—but that’s really for foreign direct investment. So is—I think I don’t understand the question. Or maybe you do, Charlie. But I think the idea is, like, should we be contracting with only some companies from some countries and not other countries, or that we shouldn’t be contracting at all with foreign companies? I’m not sure where that’s headed. We do sometimes—like, sometimes other countries, companies, have the only technology that there is out there, and we do have to sometimes contract with them. KUPCHAN: I mean, the one thing that comes to my mind is Buy America Act. And to my understanding the Biden administration has put forward regulation—and I don’t know how strict the requirement is—but that federal procurement focus on American companies. To the best of my knowledge, and Nina you might know more, there isn’t such legislation or regulation. That is to say, that state or local governance need to buy American when they procure goods. But that would—that might be one way of proceeding. You know, you could put through the state legislature or you could have a regulation that favors American companies when you—when you engage in public procurement. But to the best of my knowledge, there’s nothing systematic in that—in that respect. FASKIANOS: Great. So, Mobeen, if you wanted to clarify a little more you can raise your hand. But we’re going to take the next question from Laura Valeria Gonzalez-Murphy with the New York Department of State. So, Laura. Q: Thank you. Good afternoon., everybody. I’m, yes, Laura Gonzalez-Murphy. I’m the director of immigration policy and research at the department here in New York state, where we host the Office for New Americans. And I think it’s very interesting some of the questions about how can we participate internationally on our policy. In New York we’re looking at—you know, as you know, immigration policy is very federal. So it’s been very difficult for states to participate. But we now have a network of state offices collaborating and seeing immigration more in the terms of the immigrant policies. And in this role we’ve taken it upon ourselves to join and participate at the United Nations with the Migration Council—the mayor’s Migration Council being represented there. So I think that has been really a very interesting way of doing it. It’s not that it’s an official channel, but it—we bring together, you know, New York City’s office has been part of that, L.A.’s mayors have been part of that, other countries of course, and then there’s New York state trying to share there in that forum that, you know, it is at the very local level and states have significant incidents, as we’ve seen in the last four years. So we wanted to present that to others as one way. It isn’t a formal channel. It happened because, you know, we are very much engaged in trying to learn the factors, the push-pull, that influence how those immigrants are going to live in New York state. With that perspective, we became part of the Global Forum on Migration and Development, creation of the MMC. But it is, as I said, very focused on the mayor, but there are now more networks. So I’m hoping that’s something that grows, but it is a channel in terms of immigration for us to not just only communicate with other—our counterparts across the state, but across the country. You know, seeing the flows from, for example, Central America, learning what they’re saying. What the mayors are saying there influences our policies here. So I just wanted to share that and see what you thought perhaps at that channel. It’s very focused, again, migration, but it’s intertwined with development. You know, with the trade and so on. Thank for you’re the opportunity to share. HACHIGIAN: Yeah. And that’s great to hear that you’re a part of it. When I referenced those many city networks that we belong to, MMC is one of them, the Mayor’s Migration Council, that Mayor Garcetti is a founding member of. And you know, the idea there is to have a conversation with the U.N. as it was negotiating its various compacts on migration and refugees to just give a voice to the places where—you know, where migrants were actually, and the challenges and the opportunities in handling these major migration flows that happen. So the idea is to get, you know, that U.N. sometimes is—well, obviously it’s—you know, it’s made of member states, member nations. And sometimes it misses out on the kind of granular experience in localities. So I think that was the motivation behind creating that council. And to the question earlier about resources, Bloomberg is pretty amazing—Bloomberg Philanthropies. Like, they do a lot of work in cities and localities. And so I don’t know that they—I think I would know if they did something particularly international, and I don’t think they do, but there may be—there may be a way to approach them about a particular, you know, idea. KUPCHAN: Just I want to pick up on the immigration agenda. Thanks, Laura, for putting it out on the table, because it’s something that I worry a lot about in the sense that whereas I can see our way through on the domestic investment front, I don’t see our way through right now on the immigration front. And I think the country remains deeply divided on this issue. And it’s an explosive political issue. Last month we had, I believe, 188,000 border crossings. That’s a lot of border crossings in one month. I assume because, Nina, you live in L.A., this is an issue that’s very much on your agenda. But we need immigration reform. We need Congress to come together to pass legislation because the system is kind of out of control on that. And if it’s out of control, I think we will see nativist sentiments prevail on some level because there’s a sense that we don’t have control over our borders, we don’t know who’s coming and going. On the other hand, we need decency. We need policies that treat people well. We need policies that are consistent with international law when it comes to asylum applications. So we are, I think, in a very awkward place politically right now. I don’t think the status quo is tenable. I think Biden is, to some extent, vulnerable on immigration issues simply because we’ve got 188,000 people coming to the border in a month. I don’t know what the solution is, but I would invite those of you at the local level to organize, and to say to your members of Congress: We need legislation. We need it to be fair, but we need legislation because the system is broken. FASKIANOS: Thank you. The next raised hand will go to Jessica. And my computer—there we go. Jessica Finocchiaro—I’m not pronouncing that accurately so please correct me—from Methuen Town, Massachusetts. Q: Hey. So, yeah, Jessica Finocchiaro, Methuen city councilor at large at the city of Methuen. I wanted to know what do you believe are the top two to three issues for local officials to impact relative to foreign policy and foreign relations that cities and towns will face in the next ten to twenty years, when typical medium, even large-size local cities, in most municipalities don’t have as much influence on these issues as on the state level but there are things that we can be focused on. What do you think are the few most important? HACHIGIAN: Climate change would be the first one, I would say. I mean, we’re not getting rid of pandemics anytime soon, so I would say that would be another one. And then I think I’d go with Charlie’s, you know, original point, which is just investing in the foreign policy leaders of tomorrow by bringing, you know, education about global issues to—you know, as young as you possibly can of children in your—in your town. KUPCHAN: To Nina’s good list I would add one other issue, and that is to focus on the future of work in the digital age. This is an issue that I think we know is going to be a huge challenge, but we don’t yet know what to do about it. But you know, if you asked why was the biggest employer in the country, which was GM, say, thirty, thirty-five years ago—their workers were making $30 an hour. Today the biggest employer in the United States is Walmart. The last time I checked, a Walmart workers was making around $8.50 an hour. And that is, in part, driven by automation, digital economy, the information economy. And this is going to get worse before it gets better. That is to say, we’re still at the beginning of the AI, the artificial intelligence, revolution. There was an article in the paper yesterday or the day before, in the New York Times that in the city—the German city of Hamburg there are now vans driving, like small buses, and they don’t have any drivers in them. It’s all autonomous control. Well, you know, if ten years from now there aren’t any Uber drivers, or taxi drivers, or Lyft drivers, or truck drivers, what are folks are going to do in your town, Jessica? What are they going to do in production lines? I think we know that we will adjust, but I think we need to get ahead of this curve because the automation era is here and it’s going to cause a lot of displacement. FASKIANOS: Nina, from your position of having worked in the federal government—you were ambassador and now you’re in L.A.—what do you see as the role that cities can fill in international affairs that the U.S. government cannot? Are there comparative advantages that you have from your vantage point now that you didn’t have when you were in the government—U.S. government? HACHIGIAN: Yeah. I mean, I tend to think of it more as a partnership than as stuff that we do out on our own. But you know, we do have the luxury of not having to speak for the United States. We can just speak for Los Angeles. So, I mean, during the Trump era we spent a fair amount of time talking about the importance of international relations to us, and the importance of other cities and other countries that we could cooperate with, you know, and just carrying those standard messages of traditional democratic values. And that’s something that we were kind of uniquely positioned to do, because it, you know, was not—those were not the messages that were coming from the federal government. So we had freedom in that sense. I think we should be thought of as kind of place where you can also experiment with things. So we—I think, you know, it’s more in the practical sense of, let’s say there is a—well, you know, guaranteed basic income is, you know, an idea that is now, you know, percolating. And it was a Finnish idea, originally. And now you have states and localities, you know, doing pilot programs to test it. We’re going to start a large one later this year. So that’s a more—that’s a more domestic policy concept that came from abroad, but that’s a role that we can play that is foreign-linked, I’d say. And then, you know, we also—you know, we sometimes can just—don’t have the constraints of having—you know, in a lot of our relationships, even with allies, you know, we have the positive messages and the positive cooperation. And then we also have to deliver the kind of slightly more difficult, you know, questions. But, you know, when we’re talking to the Germans, for example, we don’t have to talk about the pipeline. You know, we can just talk about our cooperation. So in some ways that’s, you know, nuanced, because there are times when we’re talking to governments that have, you know, human rights violation where we will absolutely talk about that even though it’s a difficult conversation. But I guess what I‘m saying is that the conversations can be different. They can be, you know, single issue. They can be more talking about the benefits than the difficult issues. That’s just another—you know, that’s more freedom that we have than, you know, your average foreign service officer. KUPCHAN: Nina, let me ask you a follow up. Just thinking out loud here—and I guess this would be relevant for everyone on the call—one of the things that seems to be afoot in foreign policy is some modest decoupling from China because we want pharmaceuticals, we want semiconductors, we want medical equipment like masks to be produced in the United States because we don’t want to be dependent on China. Does that create opportunities to repatriate jobs or production and create jobs? Are you seeing any tangible ways in which this kind of sense that we need to pull back is creating opportunities for L.A.? HACHIGIAN: Yeah. It’s a good question. I’m trying to think if I can think of any, like, particular example. I mean, the mask issue is interesting. Like, you know, we spent the first few weeks, like, in a frenzy looking around for masks and, you know, competing with other U.S. cities and states—like, getting undercut on prices with deals that we had. And at the end of the day, our masks from China for one reason or another did not work out and we ended up contracting with Honeywell in Arizona, I believe, for millions of masks. And so I imagine that Honeywell had to hire a bunch more workers—(laughs)—you know, to get those masks. They were not L.A. jobs, but they are—but we do have a very high manufacturing base in Los Angeles. And I’m sure there are examples, I just can’t—I don’t know of any one example of someone saying, you know, this is, like, too volatile. I’m going to, you know, move—I’m going to bring my stuff back to L.A. But I bet there is—I bet there are examples of that. FASKIANOS: Great. Charlie, can you talk a little bit about domestic views of the U.S. role in the world today to other times in U.S. history? I mean, you were going back a little bit further than before 9/11, but I mean I think it would be good just to give sort of an overview of the contours of it. KUPCHAN: Yeah. I mean, as Irina mentioned, I published a book at the end of last year which is the history of isolationism. And I started writing it before Trump was elected—actually, quite a few years before Trump was elected. And I have to say that when he came into office, and he gives an inauguration speech where he says, “From this day forward it’s American first. It’s only America first,” my head kind of exploded because I had spent that—the previous day reading about the America First Committee founded in 1941 to keep the United States out of World War II. And even though Trump for many was a kind of bolt from the blue, he really wasn’t. He was hearkening back to earlier strains in American history, in American identity, in American strategy. So the neo-isolationism, the unilateralism, the nativism, the protectionism—they were all there from the beginning, 1789 when we began life as a federation, right through until Pearl Harbor, right? We generally wanted to stay out of international affairs. We didn’t want to send our troops and expend blood and treasure abroad. We had a very restrictive immigration policy. And I’m not just talking about non-whites, I’m talking about Catholics and Jews. I mean, most Americans probably don’t know this, but in 1924 Congress passed legislation that cut immigration by Jews and Catholics by 90 percent. This is from Southern and Eastern Europe. And then we proceeded to deport a million Americans of Mexican heritage. Many of them were American citizens, right? So a lot of stuff that we saw bubbling up during the Trump era was not out of—out of the blue. It really—it did have roots in American history. And especially in the American heartland, this kind of more traditional American identity has remained reasonably alive and well, which is why I think Trump tried to tap into it. But this is all by way of saying that we are—we are at an inflection point here where a lot of these bigger debates about who we are, what’s America’s role in the world, where’s our domestic population headed in terms of ethnicity and religion—all of these things are very much part of a national conversation that we’ve been having for quite a long time. And I think it’s important for us to keep that history in view as we—as we engage in debates. And I think it’s partly because I was aware of how tenuous, how fragile our engagement in the world has been across American history that I think it’s so important for people like us to gather—foreign policy coneheads, as I called myself, and local politicians—to have this kind of conversation. FASKIANOS: Thank you. Nina, I’m going to let you have the final word. HACHIGIAN: Well, I mean, this has been a great conversation. I would just offer my deep encouragement to all the city, and state, and local officials that are listening in to keep up this work. My office is always happy to kibbitz on anything. You know, we’ve gone through—we’re now—we’re almost four years old now. And this office didn’t exist before us. But we now have a bit of experience and are really happy to—you know, to help in any way we can. I think it really needs to happen, that states and cities become more of a partner on foreign policy than they have been so far. I think it’ll benefit Americans if we do that. FASKIANOS: I’m going to ask one other question, Nina. Have you seen others—since yours was the first to form—other cities following your example to form an international affairs team? HACHIGIAN: Yeah. I mean, the only difference in our case is that it’s a deputy mayor level, but there are—there are definitely other American cities that are playing, you know, heavily in international affairs. There’s just not many. There’s sort of a handful. And even they have, like, one or two or three people at most. So, but yeah. We’re not in this alone at all. We got a good team, small team but good team. FASKIANOS: Great. (Laughs.) We’ll try to— KUPCHAN: And I would just add, Irina, that what Nina said was right. This is a critical conversation for our country. Let’s keep it going. Irina, unfortunately, knows where to find us. So I invite all of you to stay in touch if you have questions or you just want to chew the fat about these issues. Please don’t hesitate to reach out. FASKIANOS: Fantastic. Thank you, Charlie Kupchan and Nina Hachigian. We really appreciate it. We will send out the link to this conversation. And of course, we are continuing to host these webinars and look forward to all of you to send in your suggestions of other topics we should consider covering in future webinars. You can follow Charlie Kupchan’s work on CFR.org and Nina Hachigian on Twitter, @NinaHachigian. And also follow us, @CFR_Local, and send an email to us at [email protected] for those suggestions. So we hope everyone is staying safe and well. Thank you for all that you’re doing in your communities. And we look forward to continuing the conversation. (END)
  • State and Local Governments (U.S.)
    The American Rescue Plan and Economic Recovery
    Play
    Janet Cowell, former state treasurer of North Carolina, and Kathryn White, director of budget process studies at the National Association of State Budget Officers, discuss the American Rescue Plan Act and the U.S. Treasury Department’s guidance on allocating funds to fuel economic recovery.   FASKIANOS  Welcome to the Council on Foreign Relations State and Local Officials Webinar. I’m Irina Faskianos, vice president for the National Program and Outreach at CFR. We’re delighted to have participants from thirty-six U.S. states and territories with us today for this on the record discussion. As you know, CFR is an independent and nonpartisan membership organization, think tank, and publisher focusing on U.S. foreign policy. We are also the publisher of Foreign Affairs magazine. Through our State and Local Officials Initiative, we serve as a resource on international issues affecting the priorities and agendas of state and local governments by providing analysis on a wide range of policy topics.   We’re pleased to have with us today, Janet Cowell and Kathryn White. We previously shared their bios with you, so I’ll just give you a few highlights.   Janet Cowell, served as state treasurer of North Carolina from 2008 to 2016. As state treasurer, she oversaw over 100 billion in assets and maintain the top triple A bond rating. She is currently the president and CEO of the Dix Park Conservancy in Raleigh, North Carolina. And previously, she was CEO of girls who invest a nonprofit dedicated to increase the pipeline of women in portfolio management and executive leadership in the asset management industry.   Kathryn White is the director of budget process studies at the National Association of State Budget Officers. In this role, she tracks changes in budget and financial management practices and authors the fiscal survey of states report. And prior to joining NASBA, she was a research associate for the George Washington University Regulatory Studies Center. So thank you both for being with us. I know many on this call are really anxious to hear about the American Rescue Plan and guidelines for that.   So Kathryn, why don’t we begin with you to talk about the guidelines that the Treasury Department has released about how states and cities can use the stimulus funds provided by the American Rescue Plan Act   WHITE  Sure, happy to and happy to be with you all today. So to dive right in, the American Rescue Plan Act, of course, was passed in March of this year. But until Treasury released its guidelines last month there was some uncertainty about how that the bill, and specifically the state and local fiscal recovery funds, which will be the focus of my remarks, would impact state budgets and locals as well.   But now that Treasury has released its interim final rule and related materials as of May 10, and continues to address questions that are asked by state and local officials as well. We’re getting more clarity on on what the state and local fiscal recovery funds program will mean for states. Now, just to get some high level points about the program, this aid will certainly help states and local governments meet the rising spending demands that have been caused by the pandemic, provide economic assistance to individuals and businesses, especially those hardest hit by the pandemic, and facilitate a more robust and less uneven recovery. It will also help those states and local governments that have been hard hit by pandemic-induced revenue losses. And to that end, and I’ll speak to this a bit now and can also touch on it more later. You know the pandemic has impacted all states, but to varying degrees. So how this aid will be used will likely vary state to state and locality to locality depending on the nature of how it has impacted them.   A couple other high level points just to highlight is you know, the state and local fiscal recovery funds remain available to obligate until December 31, 2024. So this is a much longer time horizon. Then the CARES Act Coronavirus Relief Fund, which was sort of the more flexible though not as flexible pot of money provided under the CARES Act to states and local governments. So this longer time horizon will all mean we’re going to see variation in—more variation in when states use these funds, which again will also relate to how they choose to use them.   But to dive right into some of the key points from the Treasury guidance. Overall, it does give states and other recipients considerable flexibility within the confines of the law to decide how to use these funds. Overall, it seems the guidance is intended to ensure the funds are used primarily to supplement existing activities and address critical needs. But the there are some provisions that allow for use for core government services as well related to revenue loss that I’ll get into a little bit more. But overall, the eligible uses that the guidance elaborates on as stated in the law are to support public health response efforts. So this can cover a broad range of needs, including COVID-19 mitigation, medical expenses, capital investments in public facilities, ventilation improvements. It can also be used to fund services to address behavioral health needs that have been exacerbated by the pandemic, and payroll expenses for public health/public safety employees, to the extent that they work on COVID-19 response is allowable under the guidance.   And then the next bucket is uses to really address the negative economic impacts of the pandemic, such as providing assistance to workers and families; providing small business assistance; supporting industries that were hardest hit by the pandemic namely the tourism, travel, and hospitality industries; rebuilding public sector capacity to pre-pandemic levels. And this includes—and we’ve seen already mentioned of some states planning to use some to replenish their unemployment insurance trust funds that were tapped during the pandemic.   And guidance also notes recipients can use these funds to build internal capacity to implement economic relief programs effectively. This includes investments in data analysis and evaluation. The next bucket of uses falls in the area of serving those hardest-hit communities and families and really addressing the equity concerns that have been exacerbated by this pandemic. So addressing health disparities, investing in housing and neighborhoods, addressing educational disparities, learning loss associated with the pandemic, promoting healthy childhood environments. And more broadly, Treasury is thinking through how in its reporting guidance, it can suggest methods for states to measure how they are spending in a way that is addressing some of these equity concerns. So we are watching for further guidance on that area as well.   Another bucket of uses for state local governments is providing premium pay for essential workers. This is spelled out in the in the law. But Treasury provides further guidance around that. And this includes—what it does note is that this is really especially meant for lower-income workers. So premium pay that increases worker pay above a certain threshold in relation to that the states or counties average will require special justification.    Investing in water and sewer infrastructure is another bucket as well as investing in broadband infrastructure. So, there have been some questions about how flexible the funds may be used for other forms of infrastructure, but for now, water, sewer and broadband are really the areas that the guidance allows for unless the infrastructure spending is in connection to replacing revenue loss.   And that is that the last bucket I will mention, replacing revenue was associated with the pandemic. And the guidance that Treasury put out details this the methodology that states and local governments are to use to calculate their revenue loss it is the methodology does allow for comparing to sort of an alternative revenue growth model that might have been expected, absent the pandemic.   So happy to address questions on that in Q&A, but for now, I will leave it there in terms of describing the eligible uses of the funds. And just a quick note on some of the ineligible uses of funds to be mindful of as well. Treasury establishes a framework for determining the cost of any reduction of net tax revenue from a change in in law or regulation. And this is relates to the the the requirement in law that states and local governments may not use these funds to offset a tax cut. And so there’s a methodology spelled out as well for how to ensure that the funds are not being used for offsetting those. Also, the funds may not be used to make a deposit into states or local government pension fund. Other ineligible uses are debt service, legal settlements, deposits to rainy day funds, or, as I mentioned earlier, general infrastructure spending unless it is either water, sewer and broadband investments or an amount allocated for to cover revenue loss. So with that, I will stop and turn it back over to Irina.   FASKIANOS  Thank you so much, Kathryn. And Janet, over to you. I mean, you have had experience as state treasurer. What considerations would you offer to elected officials keep in mind when they’re deciding how to use these funds to spur economic recovery?   COWELL  Thank you for having me here today. And I will just say briefly, you know, so I was in the Treasury after the last crisis. And one unique thing about the North Carolina Treasury is you oversee all local government. So not only are you sort of managing the state bond rating, but you’re also helping facilitate local. And, you know, I certainly understand all the sort of cash assistance and emergency assistance that goes into the public health and education, which is happening now and happened then. I will say, as time wears on, there’s always the lament that more wasn’t done in the tangible sort of Work Progress Administration, and that you can see the infrastructure or you see the improvements. And so I guess, as an elected official, you know, the more tangible sort of lasting things always, you know, maybe, you know, get a little boost in my mind. When you think about how you’re extending the funds with the understanding that of course, you need to support your teachers and the public health. I will say that this is a lot of money coming at state and local governments. And so while that may seem like a great thing, of course, it does put a lot of pressure onto the local officials where you have to expend this money wisely. There will be audits, there will be scrutiny, there will be reporting. And so, just really taking advantage of the technical assistance of work, Kathryn’s presentation was fantastic. You know, there’s no one stop shop in your local government, you’ve got federal, you’ve got how your state is thinking about it. So just, you know, entering the space with a degree of caution, particularly as an elected official that you are doing things in a way that are not going to come back to bite you individually as an elected official or your city, or, you know, have greater consequence than the benefit of you know, the cash. I also think, you know, in North Carolina, there is certainly—because of the structure I just named—I do think there is more technical assistance, sometimes available, guidance.   You know, I was talking to Lee Lilly, who works with the governor on this in North Carolina. You know, there are thoughts of how you can incent certain activities. So, you know, being aware and whatever state you’re at, as to how your state is thinking about how could you get the biggest bang for your buck? This whole water/sewer that was a fabulous use of the funds back in ‘09 and ‘10. And I will say North Carolina, like many states, had a lot of factories, a lot of industry and then a shift to white collar services and a lot of stranded assets. So that was the number one reason why local governments were in distress. Using this money to facilitate something like water/sewer is probably one of the best things you could do. In North Carolina, there are—at least the thought that they want to incent folks to partner with other regional water systems, you know, and sort of try to address regionalization as part of this package. And you may get more of a state cost share or you know, assistance if you do things in a certain way. So, just making sure that you, even if you’re using it on something, that seems like a no brainer that you’re maximizing the dollars.   I also I was talking to the city manager, the ex-city manager of Raleigh. And, you know, he just said, it’s easy to get paralyzed as a city manager or an elected, right, because you have a lot of uncertainty at the federal level, a lot of uncertainty how the states are trying to shape this. And his advice was, you know, go ahead and put together a plan of how you would use money anyway, for five years, right. And then try to think about the guidelines, you know, Kathryn just gave, and what past programs and what the rules have been. And start just crafting that knowing as the details come out, and people get more clarity. Yeah, maybe it changes, and you can tweak it, but at least you’re planning and you will be ready for you know, when the full clarity. And he said, there’s also nothing wrong with letting other people be the first movers getting some best-case studies, getting some examples in your state. And then learning from those examples and coming in, especially if you’re a smaller unit that just doesn’t have, right, as much capacity to be a first mover.   And the final—this is as a past treasurer, which thinks about portfolio theory, you know—he’s saying, there’s a lot of money and there’s a long runway, so you’ve got more flexibility and, you know, do the really solid blocking and tackling things first. If you want to get more creative, and you want to go out and start building facilities, or doing economic development, or some of those more commercial things, you know, put that as your nice to have or your a little bit higher risk bucket. And do that maybe on the back end, after you’ve done the really sort of more plain vanilla approaches.   FASKIANOS  Fantastic. So now we’re going to go to all of you for your questions. And again, we want to use this as a forum to share best practices. So if you have ideas that you want to share with your colleagues, please do so. So you can raise your hand. If you are on an iPad, click the More button and you can raise your hand—see the icon there. And you can also write your question in the Q&A box. So I’m going to just go right to the first written question, Andrew Grant, I don’t know the affiliation. But what are some examples of records needed to support the assessment that a business or business district was affected by negative economic impacts of the pandemic? So, Kathryn, do you want to take that?   WHITE  Um, I, you know, I, I’m not sure that I’m, I’m able to get into that level of specificity based on my knowledge of the process, but it’s certainly something I can look into and get—see if I can get an answer back to CFR on.   FASKIANOS  Okay, great. Let’s go next to sorry, ah. I think Catherine Sbarra has a raised hand. And if you can unmute yourself. Oh, actually, it’s written.   Q:  Oh, sorry. Yeah, I sent it in written when I when I heard you know, that you said we could do that. So it’s fine. Can you hear me now?   FASKIANOS  We can.   Q:  Okay, thank you very much. Um, I just had some questions on the governing surrounding those that have been displaced because of the pandemic. So anything on housing? I just was wondering, is there any more clarification on funds that can be used towards that purpose?   WHITE  Yeah, so um, I know that there is a guidance spelled out for how using the funds say for investing in housing and neighborhoods that states and local governments must demonstrate how they are directing those resources to low income areas, or generally to populations that are disproportionately affected by the pandemic. So thing along the lines of targeting funds to those in qualified census tracks, for example, um, but just to set expectations about my ability to dive too deeply into the guidances is limited at this point. It is also an interim final rule from Treasury. So I don’t want to give the impression that I can help interpret the guidance, because we are still, you know, awaiting further clarification on a number of items. And we have been mainly hearing, focusing on those concerns of our members, specifically, at the state budget office level.   FASKIANOS  So, when will the final regulations be out? I mean, it’s interim now, but what is the timing on that? I mean, when is the next point, though, they’ll drop more guidance?   WHITE  So, um, the comments are currently being accepted through July, I believe it’s mid-July. So there will be, you know, a time period after that. We don’t have a definitive timeframe for when that that will be finalized after but comments right now are being accepted through July 16.   COWELL  Irina, there’s a couple questions that I could at least weigh in on.   FASKIANOS  Yeah, great.   COWELL  One was just, they said more examples of water, sewer, and broadband infrastructure. And I just want to make a point on the broadband because that’s another topic that came up in North Carolina, I will say there has—and this may be true in many states—a reluctance to let local government go out and create their own broadband networks. And that has been a long case in North Carolina. Even if the federal government is saying that you are eligible to use broadband, I would make sure that you understand, you know, your state assembly or, you know, whatever the governing body is. Because it’s like my understanding in North Carolina, is there really much more enthusiastic about the water/sewer, given the financial distress and some of this regionalization. And how appropriate is to solve that at a local level than they are broadband, which I think there’s a preference that that be more of a statewide integrated system. And so they don’t want to go see a bunch of small units, maybe get in over their head and start trying to create this stuff, even if the feds are allowing it within the rules. So and that was kind of goes to another question about, you know, should we be consulting legal counsel? I mean, I certainly think, you know, on issues like what sorts of—how much administrative burden, is there going to be on this if we do it? Can we, you know, provide the documentation? What are the hurdles? What are the legal risks? And you’re working with your county, you know, general counsel, city attorney. You know, I definitely would—I had a lot of lawyers surrounding me as treasurer. So I would certainly say that, you know, you’re going to want to work hand in glove with them.   FASKIANOS  Thank you, and that we have a raised hand from Judge Paul Pape. If you can unmute yourself and identify yourself, that would be great.   Q:  Yes, ma’am. Thank you. I’m a county judge down in Texas. And I wanted to ask more about helping with the disparity—the inequality in low to middle income neighborhoods. We’re exploring the possibilities of perhaps a recreation center in an area census block, that would certainly qualify as LMI. And we don’t want to get out there too far ahead of ourselves and expend a fair amount of this money without some assurance that it’s going to be a qualifying expense. So what do you think about the possibility of—it would be it would be a building would be a structure, a recreation center, a community center, some place that we could encourage healthier lifestyles, education about nutrition, maybe some reading programs, and some recreational programs as well. What do you think about that?   WHITE  Um, so I think that, you know, within the bucket of addressing those hardest hit, um, it’s s sound, you know, it sounds like that would be the realm it may fall in. What I would recommend is, you know, reviewing all the frequently asked questions to date, as well as the full guidance to see if that type of example is already stated. But again, they’re also—Treasury is responding to is collecting comments and questions and in some cases addressing those questions not in necessarily in real time but pretty quickly, when they when they feel they are able to address them within the confines of the interim final rule. If it’s—if that if that’s example is not spelled out somewhere, though, you know, it may be something where it would need an additional clarification. But that would be my recommendation as to to getting more clarity on if that type, even though it’s infrastructure, if it would be eligible, given its target beneficiaries.   FASKIANOS  Great. I’m going to take the next question from Bob Eckstrom, who’s in the office of the city auditor in New Bedford, Massachusetts. And he wrote it in although municipalities must just define their revenue loss calculation, is there any requirement to demonstrate that those funds are spent on governmental services that weren’t performed solely because of insufficient revenue during the pandemic? So in other words, as long as it’s not specifically ineligible, can we spend the funds on any governmental services even if they weren’t affected by the pandemic?   WHITE  Sure. So the revenue loss provision, allows for spending—allows for using the funds to fund core government services. As long as—and the money the amount that a state or local locality allocates to cover revenue loss, therefore may be used outside of the other stated eligible uses. But with the caveat that the person asking the question also specified that it may not be used for anything explicitly ineligible. So I think the answer is is yes, if I heard that if I heard the question correctly. But that’s that is the way that the revenue loss provision is written.   FASKIANOS  Great. Konstantine Anthony, has his hand raised. If you unmute yourself?   Q:  Hello, sorry, I put it in the chat. I think it just kind of got skipped over. Can these can the funds be used to update our older infrastructure to comply with modern ADA standards?   WHITE  I’m not able to say for sure on that I, you know, if it’s something where you might be able to tie it to one of the eligible uses such as helping those hardest hit if it’s specific, you know, neighborhoods that the funds are being used, potentially. But that’s not something I could say clarify for sure. Unfortunately.   FASKIANOS  Alright. I’m going to go next to a Mayor Mike Wiza who’s the mayor of Stevens Point, Wisconsin, what might we need to show regarding how housing programs were affected by COVID? So, you know, how can we address homelessness that was increased but has increased because of COVID?   WHITE  So we’re still waiting for guidance on reporting requirements around the usage of these funds. So I think the details about what will need to be reported in some of these areas is is still to come from Treasury.   FASKIANOS  So Janet, in terms of the reporting, the reports that city and state officials have to do, I mean, given that they haven’t come out yet, this money is coming. How do you balance that? You know, trying to spend your money, put together your plan, spend it, but also keep an eye toward the fact that you have to actually report on it too?   COWELL  Well, and I guess that goes to that plain vanilla, right. I mean, if water/sewer, I mean, it seems like that’s going to be a lot less documentation. And then particularly if you have incentives and some things and you’re trying to collaborate and join into different—I mean, that’s all going to be a little more of a smooth path. If you are trying to build a new, I don’t know, like commercial center to recruit businesses with a new ventilation system or so I mean, it just, it seems like that’s gonna be a lot harder to prove, right? I mean, you got the risk of that, for misuse of funds and proving that you’re not misusing funds. So, you know, to me, if you’re sticking to the named categories, and you can clearly document your populations, I think, you know, you should be pretty good, right? But once you start—starting to really stray out of those boxes, and you know, you’re gonna have to show a lot more paperwork.   FASKIANOS  Right, and Kathryn, I don’t know, did you cover this? There’s a question from Emily Holmes, about schools funds, can they be used before, toward creating before or after school programs, especially those in public schools to get, you know, parents, caregivers back into the workforce? You know, a lot of people need childcare, and affordable childcare.   WHITE  So I know, within the guidance, you know, there is mention of using the funds to address educational disparities. So, you know, if the program serves that purpose, and the state or local government  can, or school district, can demonstrate that, you know, it’s possible that it’s allowable. I would also call attention to in the American Rescue Plan, there are other dedicated funding sources for education, namely the ESSER. The emergency education, I’m going to get the acronym incorrect, but it’s the ESSER funds that—similar to those that were provided under the CARES act, and bolstered in the December bill as well. There are other pots of money. And then of course, there are pots, there’s a pot for childcare assistance as well, that’s separate. So I would just encourage states, you know, and local governments to be looking at all of the buckets of money available for different purposes, because they will have different requirements around them, and also different time horizons, to consider when determining and how these the fiscal recovery funds—which is the broadest, you know, pot of money for sure—how to allocate those in combination with these other more specific pots of money.   FASKIANOS  And you’ve mentioned, there’s a question about where can people submit their comments and questions to the Treasury Department. Is there’s a certain location on the Treasury website? And we can circulate this after the fact to along with this webinar more information about that. But Kathryn, if you could give us that URL or point us in the right direction.   WHITE  Yeah, I can get that information and put it in the chat. It’s spelled out, you know, in the interim final rule, the contact information for how to submit comments. And another more general point that I would just add, that speaks to some of the questions that have come up. Is, you know, what we’re hearing from states is also, you know, this money—as Janet said earlier—it’s a lot of money coming to just state and local governments to to allocate and determine how to use as effectively as possible, it is also one-time money. So that’s another item to just be aware of. When making decisions on how to spend the funds that they be used, to the extent practical, for one-time increases or in one-time investments that will not set the government up for a problem down the road when the funds do dry up. Although there is a longer time horizon for these.   FASKIANOS  So essentially, in order to stand up new programs, programs, you need to figure out how you’re going to force fund them or source, you know, support them after the money is right is gone.   WHITE  Right. Just to be mindful of that when deciding how to use these funds.   FASKIANOS  Great. Okay, I’m going to go next to i, Susan Hariston, who is a council woman in Summit, New Jersey. Can our state, New Jersey, require that we use the ARC funds, municipalities to use the funds to first pay back debt service to cover revenue loss? That might be too state specific. But there might be general—Janet do you do you know, or how would somebody go about figuring that one out?   COWELL  Well, I was actually just going through Kathryn, you mentioned specifically that you could not use it for debt service. Correct?   WHITE  Right. I was just gonna mention that. So I’m not sure—how, you know, if, if there’s some type of work around imagine there, but yeah, that that that is identified in that guidance as an ineligible use of the funds.   COWELL  Okay. Grant had asked, I mean, I’m just jumping a bit about, you know, if you’re not in a qualified census track or a poverty census tract, could you somehow show other documentation? I just think that gets into dangerous territory and a lot of work. And I, you know, I would probably not, that wouldn’t be my first project, if that was to the mayor of Cornelius, North Carolina.   FASKIANOS  Great. And the person who asked the question about where to submit questions and comments, found the link and put it in the Q&A box, we can send it but indicated that the last day to submit is tomorrow. Does that sound accurate, Kathryn?   WHITE  Um, it’s actually it should be July 16. I’ll leave or unless I have that incorrect, but I’ll, I’ll see if I can can verify that.   FASKIANOS  Okay, great. Because obviously, that makes a big difference. I’m gonna take the next question from Betsy Beeman of CEI: small states may have limited capacity in their state government to quickly develop and manage new programs, resource flows. What lessons were learned after the Great Recession, about how smaller states quickly built their capacity to do so? And do you have any examples of partnerships forged with non state entry entities that we could learn from? That might be good question for Janet.   COWELL  I’m sorry, I’m sorry, I was—could you repeat the—   FASKIANOS:  You were looking at the other questions?   COWELL  I was looking at the other questions I was looking at. So I’m reading and listening.   FASKIANOS  I know it is challenging. Small states may have limited capacity in their state government to quickly develop and manage new programs. What lessons were learned after the Great Recession, about how smaller states quickly built their capacity to do so? Do you have any examples of partnerships forged with non-state entities that we can learn from?   COWELL  Thank you for repeating that. You know, I think some of the best examples I saw for small entities were really, you know, partnerships with other governmental entities that were more local. So for example, we had an Edgecombe County in North Carolina, which is a lot of poverty, census tract and small towns that couldn’t afford police force partnering with the sheriff’s department at the county level, to help provide public safety. The water/sewer examples that I provided and anything that sort of, you know, where you can regionalize some of the back office support, the technical assistance. We actually even created in North Carolina program to train financial managers through the community college. So I would say that’s going to be very state specific, but hopefully, you know, if you can find some of those incentives or technical assistance programs, as a small unit. And then particularly if you’re falling into a census tract, where you know, there’s proof that this is a distressed area, you know, I would think there would be even more assistance.   So I would also just jump quickly on the city of Paducah who had asked about—and I’ve lived in Kentucky for a while. So love Paducah great quilt Museum, and that you talk about public safety. Another conversation I had in prepping for this was with a local congresswoman. And she was just mentioning on the earmarks that she was seeing a lack of request around public safety, particularly from Democrats, because they’re just sort of skittish of the whole police/public safety thing. And so she’s seen a lack of requests. I know earmarks is a much smaller pot of money. And that’s not really the subject of this. But I would just say if you’re in a Democratic area, you might want to talk to your local congressperson about what’s being left on the table for earmarks and there could be additional monies there.   FASKIANOS  Great. Thank you. And Kathryn, you are correct. The deadline is July.   WHITE  Yes. Great. Thank you for confirming.   FASKIANOS  You have to unmute yourself for it. You got it.  So the person that found the link just went found the correct link and clarified. So that’s good. And we will send around the link for everybody to take a look at and to submit as needed. Okay, so let’s see. If anybody wants to raise your hand, please do. So. It’s always more fun to have people ask the questions themselves. And we do have a raised hand, Robin Stunteback and if you can tell us who you are.   Q:  Alright, thank you. Um, this actually was a question to Janet. I’m a township supervisor in southeastern area of Pennsylvania. And we were lucky through Chrissy Houlahan is our congressional delegate, to be able to receive $2.4 million for a tremendous amount of infrastructure work that we’re doing. One things we’ve already decided is to segregate the funds for each of the different activities, whether it was sewer, or whether it was stormwater in particular, because of the unfunded mandate. But I was curious about your thoughts around what we should be looking for from a third party auditor to help us participate in that? Because we really want to make sure that the township is well aware that this isn’t funny money, it’s not going to be taken out for anything else other than the most important issues that we’re addressing right now.   COWELL  No, I mean, I love that question. I mean, getting a third party audit or some arm’s length, I think, as an elected official is always a wise move, and obviously trying to do that in a cost efficient way. You know, and again, I think those providers are going to be somewhat local, but I don’t know what, you know, we have like a school of government at UNC North Carolina, you know, at Chapel Hill, we have a rural center. I mean, there’s there could be regional nonprofits that could help you find those auditors and make sure that you have, you know, kind of protected yourself against claims. And I also think there was another question about public records and, you know, trying to figure out how you’re going to be transparent on your use of these funds and show the public how you’ve used them, and some of those measures of success. You know, I think that’s one lesson I had of being an elected office is not putting enough time into the communications and, you know, kind of outward facing transparency. But yeah, I think it’s expanding a little bit of money on auditor’s and communications folks would be wise.   FASKIANOS  Great, Melissa Derek had her hand raised. She also wrote her question, but I’d love for you just to ask it. Melissa, who’s the mayor Pro Tem of San Marcos, Texas.   COWELL  Irina, now you’re on mute.   FASKIANOS  Sorry. Thank you. I did see your hand raised, but now it’s gone. Um, she asked could this fund a grant right position for social service nonprofits that focused on homelessness?   Q:  Okay, now, the host allowed me to unmute. You have a serious issue of increasing homelessness. We’re a small, but growing quickly city between Austin and San Antonio. And we have the need—I asked another question to build more shelter for our neighbors experiencing homelessness. And in addition, we really would like to hire a grant writer for like a two-year period to help our nonprofits work together and, you know, get joint grants and get grants that would be, you know, supported by the city, so that we can help them to solve the homeless issue, because we don’t have a social services department. And so we can’t afford to do all the things. So that’s basically what I’d like to ask about.   WHITE  And, you know, I can start, again, I can’t tell you with any certainty as to what will would or would not be allowable, but I would point to the guidance specifically around building internal capacity to implement economic relief programs effectively. That is in the Treasury’s guidance. And, you know, you noted it would be for a two year position. So it could also fall, you know, that that covers the piece about, you know, how it would be funded with with these, you know, one-time funds. And, you know, again too there’s there’s also the area around investing in housing to serve those hardest hit. But I think that internal capacity piece that falls under would you know, addressing the negative economic impacts of the pandemic is where that might fit in. So, but cannot say for any—for certain what what would or would not be allowable.   FASKIANOS  Great. Ty Wilson has asked, he’s a grant administrator for the city of Paducah. I know that the infrastructure seems to be focused on the three main areas, I believe, is also mentioned that the funding can be used for public safety as part of qualifying services. Is it possible to use the funding for improving infrastructure for 911, operations radio system, etc?   WHITE  So, um, I think that when I mentioned use for public safety, it was specifically in reference to employees that work on COVID-19 response. So under the supporting public health response eligible use that that’s where that fell. So I’m not sure. I’m not sure about that that particular proposal or not.   FASKIANOS  Okay. Great. Other questions, people want to raise their hand? Um, I think we’ve talked about there is an upvote. from Robert Alberty, can equipment purchases, be considered eligible expenses for governmental services after calculating the lost revenue? That again, might be too soon to tell.   WHITE  Right, I think, if you want one thing, I would say more generally about how a state or local government uses its funds allocated for revenue loss that we’re hearing is how to—another thing to think through—is how governments are planning to keep track of the usage of the funds for revenue loss. So that they can prove that it was not used for an ineligible use. So equipment purchases, I don’t see a reason why that wouldn’t be eligible, you know, assuming it’s not one of the spelled out ineligible uses in the guidance or in the law. But just something more generally to keep in mind, for using funds for revenue loss, is thinking through how you will track how those funds are used in order to prove that they were not used for ineligible use, if that makes sense.   FASKIANOS  Yeah, there’s been a lot of reporting on the labor shortage in the United States in different industries in different sectors and industries. Are there any provisions of what states and cities can do to use funds to encourage labor force participation? And to encourage more, you know, to help narrow the gap on those labor shortages?   WHITE  Yeah, so I know that we’ve seen some states use federal funds. I’m not—they’re—I’m thinking really more under the CARES Act, I believe. There were some examples of using coronavirus relief funds to give one-time bonuses to people who are—unemployed individuals who find work. And we’re seeing some examples, you know, being in conjunction with—in some cases—in conjunction with states, discontinuing or planning to discontinue participation in the enhanced unemployment programs offered by the federal government. So I would just say that that is something we’ve seen in relation to other federal funds. I don’t know for sure whether any state or local government has yet said that they intend to use this pot of money for that purpose.   FASKIANOS  Great. And if states and cities are facing budget shortfalls after 2020, can the funds be to cover those shortfalls? Or is that against the guidance? Shortfalls because of the pandemic and what was needed to put in place?   WHITE  Right. So again, under the revenue replacing revenue loss eligible use a state or local government may use the funds in the state fiscal—state and local fiscal recovery funds program to replace that lost revenue. And the rule spells out the interim final rule spells out the methodology to be used by recipients to calculate that their reduction in revenue due to the pandemic. And they basically make the assumption that any revenue loss compared to a growth factor that’s specified in in the in the guidance they make. They assume that it is due to the pandemic, you don’t need to prove, you know, that the revenue loss was due to the pandemic and not something else. Any revenue—outside of course, the interaction with the provision about tax—actually making—passing a tax cut, you know that that’s where that that would need to be adjusted for in a city or state’s calculations. But yes, the funds are intended to be able to be used to help state and local governments cover a budget shortfall, as spelled out in the guidance, you know how they would measure that shortfall.   FASKIANOS  Great. Next question is from Lester Smith in the finance department of Birmingham, Alabama. This is very technical can funding be used to pay lump-sum payments to government employees under Section 603? How restrictive are the requirements under the section which defines eligible workers to mean those workers needed to maintain continuity of operations of the central, critical infrastructure sectors and additional sectors as each governor of a state or territory each tribal government may designate as critical to protect the health and well being of the residents of their state, territory, or tribal government. Right.   WHITE  Right, so I believe that is relates to using the funds to provide premium pay for essential workers. And as I mentioned, there is discussion in the Treasury guidance around—I can’t remember the exact threshold, it’s something like above 150% of the state or county average pay would require a special justification to use the funds to provide additional pay. So I would recommend, you know, looking at the details, as they’re spelled out in that section to get more clarity on those restrictions.   FASKIANOS  Right. Um, so I’m Alfred Brock councilman with the city of Wayne in Michigan: we’ve got notice that communities under a population of 50,000 get less. We’re in the same congressional district as Detroit, which is getting about $1038 per capita and a city across the street from us population greater than 50,000 is getting over $340 per capita. So I guess the question is, you know, is this really a nationwide situation that how they’re allocating per capita?   WHITE  Yeah, I’m not sure that I’m in a position to comment on how prevalent that that issue is. If this is in reference to the non-entitlement units of government, that there’s a special process in place for how states are to distribute those allocations down to the those any use— they’re referenced as. But those are spelled out by Treasury, in terms of you know how those allocations—and there’s very, very little discretion that would cause variation state to state. There are just a few instances in which states have some discretion in specific instances about how to allocate to to any use. So I’m not sure if that’s relevant.   COWELL  I could just give you a data point, I, when I was talking to Lee Lily in North Carolina, the amount per capita of some of the cities we were talking about was about the same as what, you know, small towns—it sounds like Kathryn what you’re saying is—I mean, based on just a few data points true across Michigan and North Carolina.   FASKIANOS  Great, thank you. So we’re almost at the end of our time, and I just wanted to give each of you a minute or two, just to wrap up on anything you’d like to leave the group with. So Kathryn why don’t we start with you. And then we’ll go to Janet.   WHITE  Sure. I would say, you know, just encourage anyone who has questions or is concerned about anything they see, in reviewing the guidance from Treasury to submit comments, I know that staff there are very, very keen on collecting those. And I’m responding to them as fully and comprehensively as possible. So I would just encourage folks to take the time to do that before the deadline, which is July. And there may be some questions that Treasury would be able to clarify sooner than if they are able to outside of the rulemaking process.   FASKIANOS  Great. Janet over to you.   COWELL  I would just add the I know a lot of you go into public service, either elected or as civil servants, because you really care about people and you want to help and this is an opportunity for you to make a difference to a lot of people who’ve suffered. And so I laud that and I hope that you can, you know, deploy this. I would also encourage you like on the airplane to you know, put your oxygen mask on yourself too and and take care of yourself. I think those questions from our friend in Pennsylvania about you know, making sure your auditors you know that you have lawyers that you have transparency and that you don’t get yourself into hot water or, you know, accusations. I mean, it does nothing has to be true right in the public sector. And I know how difficult it is. So thank you for serving. And just make sure that you you know, in the process of doing this, also protect yourself and your unit.   FASKIANOS  I think that’s a great place to end. Thank you very much to you both to Janet Cowell and Kathryn White for your expertise. We’ll send out a link to the webinar recording and transcript soon. And in the meantime, you can follow Janet on twitter @JanetCowell and the work of Kathryn’s organization NASBA @NASBO. And of course, you can follow State and Local Officials Initiative, our initiative on Twitter @CFR_Local. Please feel free to reach out to us with any questions or any other ways that we can support the important work that you’re doing. You can email us at [email protected] and thank you for all that you’re doing. Stay well and stay safe.
  • State and Local Governments (U.S.)
    Confronting Extremism at the Municipal Level
    Play
    Andy Berke, former mayor of Chattanooga, Tennessee, and Sasha Havlicek, cofounder and chief executive officer of the Institute for Strategic Dialogue (ISD), discussed how organizations like ISD’s Strong Cities Network are equipping local leaders with the data, tools and capacities needed to combat extremism. Learn more about CFR’s State and Local Officials Initiative.   TRANSCRIPT   FASKIANOS:  Thank you. Welcome to the Council on Foreign Relations State and Local Officials Webinar. I’m Irina Faskianos, vice president of the National Program and Outreach at CFR. We’re delighted to have participants from forty-eight U.S. states and territories with us today for this conversation. Thank you for taking the time to join us. This discussion is on the record. As you know, CFR is an independent and nonpartisan membership organization, think tank, and publisher focusing on US foreign policy. CFR is also the publisher of Foreign Affairs magazine. Through our State and Local Officials Initiative, we serve as a resource on international issues affecting the priorities and agendas of state local governments by providing analysis on a wide range of policy topics. So we’re pleased to have with us today, Andy Berke and Sasha Havlicek. We previously shared their bios, so I’ll just give you a few highlights. Andy Berke served as mayor of Chattanooga, Tennessee from 2013 to April 2021. In 2015, Mayor Berke was named municipal leader of the year by American City and County magazine for his leadership following a domestic terror attack in the city. From 2007 to 2012, he served as state senator for Tennessee’s tenth district in the Tennessee Senate. So thank you, Mayor Berke for being with us. Sasha Havlicek is a cofounder and CEO of the Institute for Strategic Dialogue. She specializes in conflict resolution, extremism and digital information operations, she serves as the advisor to the UK Counter Extremism Commission, and the mayor of London’s counter extremism campaign. In 2015, the Institute for Strategic Dialogue established the Strong Cities Network to mount a city-led response to hate, polarization, and extremism. So thank you both for being with us. Sasha, I’m going to first start with you. I think it would be helpful if you could define what we or what you or what we mean by extremism, and really give that some a definition. And then we can go from there to talk about how Strong Cities Network help cities cope with extremism ideology. And Sasha, you’re muted. HAVLICEK: Of course. Every one of these webinars has to start with somebody speaking on mute. Apologies. Irina, I want to say thank you, for us, to you and to CFR. It’s a wonderful opportunity to speak to all of you today, I’m very, very grateful. I’m thrilled to see Andy Berke, who’s a great leader and has been an important pillar of the Strong Cities Network. You’ve asked me to start by giving you my definition of extremism, I say mine, I mean, it’s the Institute’s definition of extremism, these definitions vary. But I think that the core elements of this definition hold, and that is, extremism is a belief. It is a worldview, if you like, that posits the supremacy, the superiority of one in-group over all outgroups, and advocates, the dehumanization of that outgroup and ultimately advocates for political and social change, in line with that worldview. And I think that those components are very important to understand, it isn’t just a prejudice that you hold privately. It really is the advocacy of political and social change to reflect this supremacist worldview. As such, it is antithetical to human rights to universal human rights, it is antithetical to cohesion, and indeed, to democratic civic culture. It is therefor problem. It is not to be to be muddled with radical behavior or views, or, or just the idea of somehow—be that you know, things on the fringe. You can have extremism, of course, take hold across an entire society. And we’ve seen that, of course, in terrible parts of history around the world. I don’t know if you’d like me to say a couple of words about the trends that we’ve seen in extremism through our research in the U.S., and perhaps internationally over the recent period. With the incidents around the sixth of January, of course, very fresh in people’s minds. I think it’s important to say, you know, we’ve been we’ve been researching, analyzing, and innovating both policy and operational responses to extremism now since 2006, at the Institute. And what we’ve seen is really a wholesale transformation of the extremist ecosystem and threat since that time. What were once a disparate parochial, primarily small scale, often violent, set of street groups of Trump’s transformed into a fully transnational, tech-savvy, large-scale online subculture. A set of subcultures able to translate, quite effectively, their online mobilization into real-world action, offline action and successfully coordinate around key political objectives. And we see this sort of sharing increasingly of a common worldview, not only representing local struggles and issues, but a sort of existential battle for survival and supremacy. And I think it is important to say, you know, that a broad church emerged, what we saw come out on the day—on the sixth was, was evidence of a set of trends. We see this broad church emerging a coalition building, across a fairly broad ideological spectrum. And we’ve seen that coalition building happened, for instance, in Charlottesville, in Kenosha, then at the Capitol. And, you know, coalescing with with very specific political goals in mind. COVID, I should say, was a terrible crucible in a way for the expansion of the audience for disinformation and hate. It became a vector for a mass of disinformation online related to COVID itself, vaccination, and we’ve seen that full spectrum. But of course, QAnon that—we’ve been watching QAnon since 2017—that QAnon burst onto the scene at scale, in March of last year, really coinciding with the onset of COVID. And you see, the growth of the QAnon networks and related conspiracy networks really become a vector for the expansion of the sort of outreach, if you like, by extremist actors into much more mainstream constituencies. And QAnon was very effective with pastel Q, and various campaigns like “save the children”, and getting to much, much broader audiences, if you’d like, to reach well beyond the hardcore of the extremist ecosystem. Their communications have shifted. It’s important to understand this courses for courses they’ve consciously brand cleansed when speaking to the normies when trying to reach out to constituencies that aren’t necessarily bought into a fully extremist worldview. And they’ve adapted their language around broader grievances and political issues: political correctness, free speech, and so on. So they’re very consciously looking at ways in which to communicate to wider, wider audiences. And then I think it’s important to understand that what we’ve seen is really a hybridized threat landscape, it is no longer coherent to talk just about extremist actors, without understanding the interplay of conspiracy networks, as I’ve just mentioned, but also disinformation networks, including state actors. Where we’ve seen, increasingly, the online, through information operations, the online boosting, if you like, of, of extremism, of hate, in a way as to as to cause division essentially designed to stoke aggression and division, among constituencies. And we’ve seen some of this happen, of course, with the Kremlin playbook. What we see other state actors also come into this into this space. And then of course, that grab bag of tactics we came to associate with the Kremlin. All of the online grab bag of those tactics, that the tactics that the false accounts, the false networks, amplifying this type of content, in a massive way to millions of people. That grab bag is now in everybody’s hands, we see extremist actors use disinformation, to get their messages out again to wider audiences and distort the playing field, the information playing field online. And of course, that brings me finally just to the role of the internet and social media platforms, which I hope we can come to and speak to. But here we see, you know, not only extremists being able to deploy and reach further and faster than ever before, and commercialize hate and fund for hate. We did a big piece of research on how seventy-three hate groups across the U.S. were using online fundraising platforms, commercialization, to fund their activities. But it’s also that the technology on these social media platforms essentially amplifies, algorithmically amplifies extreme messaging, as you see this big, big amplification. And in the end, what we see is a set of trends around, obviously, a rise in violence. I mean, this is very clear, we’ve seen not just a rise terrorism and globally speaking, there’s been a 250% rise in religiously and ethnically motivated terrorism internationally over the last five years. You see that reflected, of course in a U.S. context where law enforcement and the DHS have identified that type of extremism as a number one threat. But you also see hate crime in like 2019, I think was the peak in recorded hate crimes across the United States. And of course, we’ve seen now this recent bout, which is really, really terrible of hate crimes of violence, of course, massively on the rise. But it’s important to know that that violence is coming from across the ideological spectrum that I just talked about. It isn’t just ostensibly violent groups. And it isn’t just from groups, there is a kind of post-organizational terrorism appearing, where you see people inspired to terrorism inspired to acts of violence that aren’t necessarily card carrying members of groups. And so prescription—purely prescription based group based responses are going to be challenged in that sense. And then, of course, I think it’s important to remember that the real impact here, beyond violence, has been a social impact: polarization. Polarization has really been, you know, in a way, the major fallout from this massive transformation of the operational and communications tactics of these extremist groups today. FASKIANOS:  Thank you so much, Sasha. That was really very rich. Let’s go now. Mayor Berke, can you talk about the spectrum of policies and programming, and acted as mayor to confront extremism in Chattanooga? And maybe you could also give your definition of extremism as you saw it through the prism of a mayor. BERKE:  Sure, thanks, Irina, and appreciate the Council on Foreign Relations allowing me to say a few words on this and really have learned a lot from Sasha and the Institute over these last several years. So I think it’s, you know, listen, I’m American, patriotic, and, you know, we do have this rich history of people talking about extremism in our country. Barry Goldwater, of course, famously said extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice. We understand that there are people who are always going to be pushing for change, and to make sure that our country improves, that’s part of the, the natural course of the United States. But there is a different type of dialogue that is out there now. That is extremism that seeks to alienate people from society that seeks to tear apart the social fabric that people, like me and mayors across the country and council people who are on this call, are trying to build. That frequently tries, as well as pulling apart our society to polarize it, can also lead to violent acts. And that is the kind of extremism that at least for me, I have spent these last several years thinking a lot about and trying to combat. And I think it’s worthwhile to say a few minutes about why this has reached the mayor of Chattanooga. And I remember back in June of 2015, watching one of my idols Joe Riley as a guy named Dylann Roof had had walked into Mother Emanuel church in Charleston and shot nine people and killed nine people and think to myself: how can he even be up there going through this. And then roughly a month later, we had our own terrorism attack in Chattanooga that was inspired by hate. Just as Sasha was talking about, this was a person who had been inspired by ISIS, was not a quote card carrying member of it, but had been led down this extremist path, watching videos online, killed four marines and a sailor at a naval operations support center in our community. As a result of that, you know, we started thinking more proactively, not just about how we combat extremism, but also how we network across communities. Because then Orlando happened and El Paso and we can keep the list going on, there’s been on shootings, there’s been more than one mass shooting average per day in the United States this year. And then we know what’s happening with Asian-American crime and hate crimes right now, you know. We needed to take action, and the Strong Cities Network was the platform that I saw that provided us the best opportunity to learn from others, and then to do things ourselves. So one of the one of the lessons that I learned was that we needed to we had had a number of things that were going right to try to promote inclusion, and to have a society that was cohesive, but we also needed a platform, for example, to, to really speak out against the hate that I saw forming in our, in our society, and particularly after Charlottesville. My family, I come from a family that were refugees, just two generations ago, saw, you know, came to this country to be part of a better society. And then I saw in Charlottesville, people walking down the street with tiki torches, and really felt moved to act, not just with this international group, but to act locally, as well. So we started a Council Against Hate, it was to examine policies, to educate, to make sure that we could, that we could help those who were working in these areas, for example, in the education system. So we’d have speakers come in, we change policies, we gave toolkits out to those who wanted to act and to speak out against hate. And just to give you like a small example of the kinds of things that that we would do. We would change small policies like anytime that there was a hate incident reported, we would always do a follow up from the police department, with a detective-level person coming out there to show that this was an elevated type of occurrence in our city. And also to make sure that the target of that knew how seriously that we took it, we provided opportunities when there was an incident of, of a public official in our community, who was espousing hate, the leaders of the Council Against Hate spoke out and said, here, here’s why this is wrong in our community. So there are lots of different things that we can do as local officials. But I think it goes back actually, to that really important first question that that we were trying to establish is, what is extremism? And how are we going to combat it? And I think there actually is a positive and a negative side of this, the negative side being we have to speak out and say why hate is wrong. And then we also need that piece that is how do we build a cohesive society that is inclusive and welcomes everybody, because right now, we are talking about a lot in our country about right-wing extremism, it’s obviously a huge issue. But we have all kinds of extremism, and we need to make sure that people are not alienated in our communities and feel part of the fabric that that we’re building. FASKIANOS:  Right. And I think that is, you know, how can we talk about, and leaders, local leaders and you know, talk about extremism without appearing partisan or alienating the other side? Because as you pointed out, you know, we are, the focus right now is really due to, you know, January sixth, and this this talk, it seems to be alienating one side. So how do we move beyond that and talk about it. It’s all of our problems, and it’s not pitting people against each other? BERKE:  Well, the first thing to acknowledge is that that is actually more challenging than then it should be. I started Council Against Hate now, what could be less controversial than a Council Against Hate? That just sounds like something that people should be in favor of. And yet there was a relatively mainstream group that was operational in our in our community that took nonstop pot shots at talking about how terrible it was that we had a Council Against Hate. And that was entirely, in my opinion generated by a partisan type of view that actually being against hate was—I’m a Democrat let’s go on and say what it is that I was a Democrat—that my view of trying to combat hate was a partisan issue to go after the Republican Party, which is, of course, nonsense, it’s nonsense. I got plenty of other issues that I can, you know, disagree with people about hate is something that tears at the fabric of our community, and makes it harder for all of us, Democrats, Republicans, independents, to live in a place that we enjoy. So, um, you know, for me, you know, we mobilize religious leaders. We mobilize community leaders. We ensure that, that people across the religious spectrum, were able to speak out and, and by the way, never made it a partisan issue to say that everyone in our community has the right to, to be free from hate, and to be feel included in in our society. And we did everything that we could. Now the truth is that it is that there are still some people who are going to listen to those forces, but I know of no other way to, to work on this, than just to do the things that we need to do, and to be genuine and sincere, and then hope in the long run, that helps us get past this partisan divide. FASKIANOS:  And Sasha, can you talk about the lessons that Strong Cities Network learned, has learned, you know, at the global level, and then the work that you’ve been doing with cities in the U.S.? And how you are helping local leaders to track polarization and extremist extremism, discourses in their communities? HAVLICEK: Absolutely. And and I should say, actually putting this into the context of a global network, you very quickly see, of course, that you’re dealing with many different forms of extremism. And what we try to do is provide support to local leadership, local authorities, and communities. Both to understand what those dynamics are of polarization or indeed, of extremist mobilization in whichever ideological context they emerge. And, and to provide them with toolkits to help prevent, and then mitigate those problems once they see once they see extremism take hold in some way. Ultimately, this is about building a kind of public health perspective on violence prevention, so I don’t think it’s too late. We mustn’t exceptionalize this work too much. I mean, this is when you bring it down to the nuts and bolts of what you do locally, you’re creating a framework for local prevention of violence. And that is across the spectrum, just to your point about not politicizing this too much. And maybe I say just a couple of words about the Strong Cities Network and how it’s emerged and what it what it’s done. And then maybe some of the resources that are available for, for U.S. partners, as we now think about rolling this out in a U.S. context. And we’d love to get feedback and thoughts from your guests here. I had, as I said, you know, we’ve been working on understanding and responding to extremism for many, many years. But what we realized quickly was that, you know, beyond the national conversation, policy conversation, cities and their communities were really at the coalface of this challenge, and needed to be supported better, and enabled to lead the charge on turning the tide on these threats. Not least because actually, they were able to de-politicize some of this work in a more effective way. And we had started to work with local authorities across Europe. I had the privilege of then working with Eric Rosand now now the interim director of the SCN, who was then at the State Department, which spearheaded we launched together at the UN General Assembly in 2015 with twenty-five global mayors, the Strong Cities Network. Wow this is the first global network of its kind dedicated really to powering solutions at a local level to these rising tides of extremism and polarization. It’s now a network of over 145 cities in more than forty-five countries spanning every major global region. And it’s delivering tools, the training, the resources, and on-the-ground programming and support to cities and their communities to build response. Now we’ve engaged and trained over five thousand professionals and community leaders, 750 city officials, we’ve worked with over one hundred mayors. So it’s been a very interesting learning journey. But I can just say, a couple of things that I think one of my colleagues might be able to post a little bit of information about, there’s a five year anniversary video that says a little bit about the achievements of the network and a brochure that maybe she can post in the chat. But number one, its data—data for cities. So we combine digital state of the art digital analysis with on-the-ground research to really provide local leaders and practitioners with evidence, you know, evidence-based recommendations for how to go about doing their local planning work. And this gives you really an insight into both on and offline how, how these problems might be mobilizing. This has been particularly important in the context of, for instance, COVID, where you’ve seen this, you know, expansion of, of those threats. The second thing is local infrastructure for prevention. And this is a kind of whole of society response, a model for facilitating partnerships between the local authority, the community frontline services, and it is that sort of local prevention framework and network that we now have a model for building that I think it’s so vital for work in the U.S. on this. This is multi—sort of team building at a local level, multi-sectoral engagement of the sort that Andy’s just been talking about. That gives you then an opportunity to respond to whatever threat you might be seeing. And that is the entity then through which you can do so much programming, whether it’s prevention or interventions at the sharp tip of the problem. And we offer expert services and training and on all sorts of, you know, key topics from rehabilitation and reintegration of those that have already radicalized, psycho-social support, youth engagement, digital resilience, strategic communications, monitoring, evaluation. I think it’s important, we built some tools for cities that really work from the real world, you know, on building the how to. So for instance, a post-incident response toolkit, building from the experiences of our mayors of our cities, in dealing with, for instance, terrorist attacks or hate crimes. How the step-by-step how to respond to that in a way that de-escalates the problem,  that enables cohesion to be established, and that protects the victims. And so again, there’s some really interesting resources there. There’s an online hub, where you can find those resources. And, again, the evolving resources, a COVID-19 resource center for cities. So really looking at the threats now. And the challenges these are augmented threats that cities are facing. And finally, it’s this sort of interconnection of local leadership. That exchange piece is so important, we’ve seen so much happen because of exchanges, really international exchanges, but also domestic exchanges. Partnerships between Montreal in Canada and Dakar in Senegal, which saw exchanges between police, youth leaders, and city officials. Seen as a model adapted for frontline prevention training that was developed in Canada, but adapted to this vibrant youth volunteer network in Senegal. You’ve seen these kinds of exchanges inspire models in in various different places. And as we look forward, really, I think the aim is to look at how across the U.S. all the amazing good practice that’s being done at a local level, gets a spotlight on it gets shared, gets distilled and shared in a in an effective way across the U.S.. And there’s a number of things I think that can happen now, to bring this whole of society approach, especially in the aftermath now of January the sixth and the new administration’s drive to support this whole of society approach and to address this threat. There is, I think, a unique opportunity in the U.S.. And I think especially now with Secretary Mayorkas’s announcement in February that the DHS will provide at least $77 million to city and other sub-national jurisdictions across the country to protect against domestic violence, extremism, there will be real means by which to do some of this work at a local level. FASKIANOS:  Thank you. Mayor Berke, the U.S. Conference of Mayors—is such an important group and really mobilized to take on the challenge of climate—was extremism, while you were there, was that sort of coming into onto the agenda? And what other mayors were you cooperating, you know, what other cities were the cities that you were cooperating with, to sort of build exchange best practices and, you know, come together? BERKE:  So the U.S. Conference of Mayors is absolutely leading out there on the these issues. And, you know, the sad fact is that that it has to, we don’t have a lot of choices. I remember maybe it was two years ago, two or three years ago, I was on a panel at the U.S. Conference of Mayors about mass shootings. And I think there were there were nine of us. And just to look down colleagues, people whose phone numbers I had in my phone, you know, and to know that it didn’t go very far, because he had Pittsburgh and Chattanooga and Orlando, and San Jose, and again, El Paso, you keep going, many of these motivated by hate and extremism. And so the U.S. Conference is responding well, to the, to the needs of the of the members. And I would guess, although, you know, I became mayor in 2013, I can’t say for sure. But, you know, you have these kind of twin problems of both mass shootings, and then hate violence, which sometimes, but not always overlap. And the U.S. Conference has had to take that on as one of its issues, because the members are having to deal with it every day. So Sasha is talking about how the federal government is now responding. One of the—I mean, it is absolutely terrific that the federal government is having is leading on this issue, but it’s also responding to the needs that it sees from local leaders like those who are on this call, who are saying: we need more tools, we need more knowledge, we need more data about what’s actually going on. And the city to city interactions are really important. And so Sasha was talking about this, and and I know, at least I worked with a guy at the State Department named Mike Duffina lot. He connected as well as Sasha, they connected us with, with some of the Arhaus model of what they were doing in Denmark. Or some of the interventions that police were doing in The Netherlands, when they found people who had been radicalized or some of the interventions that a nonprofit was doing in Australia to deal with mostly, or purely, young men, who had been alienated from society had been radicalized. And they were trying to, basically, do heavy duty social work, to pull them back into to the mainstream of society. Listen, not all those things are directly transferable to the U.S., but I can see the principles and thought a lot about the principles underlying them. And how do I take that and make something that can work in my own city? And so dealing with you know, yeah, Bill Peduto in Pittsburgh, and Buddy Dyer in Orlando, and Greg Fischer in Louisville, and Nan Whaley in Dayton, Ohio. Those are the kinds of conversations that we have, you know, both formally and also informally, when we’re at a conference together to say, kind of what are the things that you’re doing? How do we do this? And I think the important part about trying to do more of this in the U.S. is we need to, we need to formalize those so that they’re, they’re occurring more regularly with purpose and direction. HAVLICEK: Just to add to that, I find my I mean, the, you know, Strong Cities Network has done some work and interacted with with over a dozen cities. We have members in the U.S. and it’s been wonderful to work, you know, as Andy said, with Orlando, with San Diego, with Louisville, with Chattanooga, with Pittsburgh, with L.A.. And we keep getting requests for assistance from across the U.S. from cities that are facing some of these challenges. And we have actually been privileged to have a very strong working relationship with U.S. Conference of Mayors and set up a working group on hate and hate, responses to hate at a local level with a number of the mayor’s from the Strong Cities Network and the U.S. Conference of Mayors and that’s been extremely helpful. I think this is the moment to really formalize and build a network. So that the practices that are now going to be put in place don’t get lost. That we’re not reinventing the wheel. That there is an opportunity to really learn from across the U.S., but also from international practices, some of which, as I said, in terms of the principles in terms of the approaches can be quite informative. And I think that there is really an opportunity now, in a U.S. context to do that at scale. FASKIANOS:  Right, I’m going to go to questions and from all of you. So if you want to raise your hand, you can raise your hand clicking on the icon, or you can type your question in the Q&A box. And just be sure to unmute yourself. Sasha’s colleague put a lot of resources in the Q&A box, we’re going to copy those over to the chat. And we will also share them out after this. So you don’t have to worry. We will, we will circulate them so that you can dig into them at your convenience and share them with your colleagues. That is the point of this. Alright, so there are a few written questions. I’m going to ask from Gail Patterson Gladney, and she asked do counties or cities, townships that have diversity, inclusion and equity programs/departments have less problems with extremism? BERKE: Sasha may add, but let me let me let me say, first, that that’s a great question and an empirical one, that I don’t I don’t know the answer to. I think, for me, I’m not sure we seen some of those, especially some of the DEI work over the last few years, we probably need to give it some more time to be effective. But I do think that what I have seen, again, then Sasha can say if she has some data on this. Is that the cities who are proactively thinking about how to be inclusive, and how to ensure that they build this social cohesion piece are more successful in combating hate around the around the globe and in the U.S. And, and that’s why I think these conversations are important it is it may be DEI, there may be other things that that you’re doing. But as long as you are thinking about and looking for ways to promote the inclusion of more people into the broader society that has that has got to be helpful for you in the long run. The real the real question is always—and this comes back, Irina, to the question you asked earlier is—how do you ensure that that work doesn’t get politicized? That you it’s, it’s seen as genuine and sincere and about everybody. So that, that you can make sure you could do this. I’ll tell you, when we had our terrorism attack in the U.S., in Chattanooga. One of the things I wrote on the board within a few minutes of that happening for the entire staff was no one will be radicalized as a result of what happened in Chattanooga today. No one. Not, not another young Muslim kid, because we reacted harshly to the Muslim community and not any body in, in our in the rest of our community because they thought that we didn’t care about what was going on or that something. We were going to include everybody in the response and that that kind of overall attitude or worldview of the goal here is to ensure that everybody in our community feels part of the recovery of this and that everybody feels safe. We would say this, everybody in our Muslim community is going to feel safe, like they do not suffer any retribution or do not ever feel any kind of worry about walking down the street. But also we’re going to genuinely ensure that people know that this is important to all of us, and that our entire community is going to recover together from this. You know, there was a lot of we had a great New York Times article about our response. There was a lot of work, but I think that overall attitude always helps us city. FASKIANOS:  Sasha? HAVLICEK: Yes, I mean, it’s hard to add to that because it’s it’s absolutely right. And I completely agree. But I would say—firstly, it’s such an interesting question, I don’t have any empirical data on it. And I think it would be really interesting thing to, to research properly. What we do know is that cities, communities in which diversity and inclusion programming, if it is done in a way that enables the building out of relationships across the community—and it shouldn’t just be in one part of the community, it really needs to be across the community. Those relationships work in a number of ways. And they work both to be able to give insights into any changes into any developments that may ultimately lead to extremist mobilization. If you have your ear on the ground, and you’re talking to community members, whether it’s whether it’s schools, whether it’s parents associations, whether it’s religious leaders in in whichever shape or form, you’re more able to know what may be emerging as a set of threats and challenges. Now, we tend to complement that work that on-the-ground outreach and engagement research work as a baseline for any community with online work now, because so much of this mobilization to extremism happens, of course, in these in these subcultures online. And it’s important to understand what they look like, and whether they in fact, are targeting your community in any specific way. And there are ways to track, you know, localized engagements online, as well as the sort of more generalized engagements and the overlaying of that data, I think, can be very important. Those communities that have good infrastructure, built out with the communities are also in a much better position, as Andy has said, to respond, if there is an attack, whether it’s a hate crime or anything of that kind. They’re able to mitigate what can be an escalating event in a much more in a much more effective way. And to those questions that I see about, you know, whether then culture and art and all of these things can be used? Absolutely. I think, you know, creating a positive environment for a community, a community where people do feel a sense of belonging and other things. Those things are absolutely critical in, in every part of extremist research, you see that belonging, a sense of disenfranchisement, a sense of a lack of belonging, these sorts of things, play a part in as one of many, many influential aspects to that radicalization process. So, yes, that broader space, I think, is absolutely critical. But of course, then there is, you know, if you do find that people are progressing down a pathway to radicalization, there are very specific things that a community can do in terms of early interventions to prevent somebody going from radicalization to violence. And the community infrastructure that I talked about, those prevention frameworks are essentially set up as multi-sector networks in order to be able to both spot that potential transition that somebody may be going through, and then to essentially enable case management in a way that brings the relevant services to the table, whether it’s education, social services, or indeed police, in a way that can prevent that stemming into an attack of some kind or violence. Psychosocial support is really, really important here. And bringing the community to the table in some inclusive way around that is also really important here. So there are indeed, models for how to go about doing that prevention work at a local. FASKIANOS:  Fantastic. Um, so I was gonna call on Danielle Brazell, but she did put her hand down. And I don’t know if you want to ask the first part of your question, Danielle, if you want to unmute yourself. Q:  Sure, sure. And I really appreciate the question—answering the question around the role that arts culture can play as part of a belonging strategy because I run the cultural department for the City of Los Angeles. So my, my appreciation to you for that. But I think the first part of my question, and forgive me, but I did miss the first few minutes of the of the session, but what would you identify as the top three to four primary drivers of extremism? And of course, I put some examples in there. You know, is it our algorithms? Is it our biased media? Or and how do these factors kind of contribute to that rise in and maybe it’s also, you know, we’re seeing an unprecedented population shift in this country and mass migration as a result of some pretty intense causes for mass migration. So I just, I thought I’d throw that out there. And again, thanks for lifting up the role that culture and creativity can play in creating human to human contact and belonging for any local community. And Mayor Berke, I’d love to hear what you’ve done in Chattanooga on that front. HAVLICEK:I think just in terms of the drivers there, you know, this is very complex, and there’s always multiple drivers. And they’re not all the same for each individual, obviously. But there are, I’d say, push factors and pull factors, broadly speaking. Push factors can be a set of both personal and social grievances. And we do see people turn to turn to violence, ultimately, disproportionately affected by some kind of incident of personal grief. Or, you know, issues that may have a mental health ramifications. So there are interventions that happen, of course, across the across the public health space that I think can be quite important early on. But it isn’t just that. There are social grievances, often. A lack of feeling of lack of belonging, a feeling of a community no longer having the standing that it might have once had a feeling threatened by others, by outsiders, by changes that may have been happening locally, internationally, and narratives that are built around that. But I think all of that doesn’t translate into the kind of the kind of mass extremism that we’ve seen on the rise, without social mobilization without the pull factor. And that pull factor is a combination of, as I said, the transformation of organizational and communications tactics, to reach wider audiences, to engage, to radicalize and so on, and the means by which that’s being done, which absolutely is, of course, partly the changes that we’ve seen in our information ecosystem. I mentioned the internet, the algorithmic amplification of extreme messaging and polarization. We know that the content that comes closest to the red line in terms of acceptability on the platforms is most likely to be viral. And so you’re starting to reach much, much broader audiences with with a barrage of this kind of, of communication and content, which grabs on to and leverages local grievance, national grievance, wider grievances, turns that into narratives that really, that really mobilize people over time. I hope, I hope that that sort of answers that but there’s a lot more to be said on that. I’d be happy to take that offline. BERKE:  Thanks. And let me let me just add a little bit because I think it gets the two questions are related in a strange way. Listen, we have a toxic stew going of things right now in the U.S., that is causing this extreme polarization, everything from social media and the algorithms that you’re talking about, to the media culture that is that is making money off of division. To leaders who think that it’s in their best interest to get elected to stoke division. And you put those things alongside the personal grievances, which are, which are inherent in every society, and you have a huge toxic stew, that that can lead to extremism and violence. And this is something that really worries me, really worries me for our country. And so, I’ve been thinking a lot, also, to the point about what are the things that bind us together. It’s not just about what tears us apart. And I think that if you think about what binds us together as Americans, there might be fewer of those things as well. We don’t share facts, areas are more different from each other than they ever were in terms of if you live in a place like Los Angeles or you live in rural Tennessee. You know, languages are different. And then you combine that with how we segment every other part on top of income and wealth inequality. So, so what binds us together is weaker and what tears us apart is more active. That is a problem for us. And so I think, you know, things like art and culture are actually one of the things that brings us together. It’s one factor that we can celebrate and listen and enjoy each other’s company in a non-political setting that is often a place where we can learn about other cultures and show empathy for one another. And, and that’s one of the reasons that I believe in in arts and education. And we, you know, we in Chattanooga had a huge public art department. But I, you know, in the long run, we had to continue to have a conversation about how we strengthen those ties on top of, you know, fighting against those pulls that Sasha is talking about that tear us apart. FASKIANOS:  So there are a few questions, comments in the chat, there are a lot. So I’m just going to group a couple there two mayor’s from Tennessee, and from Hillsboro, North Carolina, that are talking about being in small towns, and have very limited capacity and resources. So given that, how you prepare for extremist attacks, if you have limited resources? And then there is another question about talking about counties, counties represent huge swaths of the rural U.S.. These areas are not often talked about, and it’s where extremism and hate is growing. People are being left out left behind not included. So how do we how do you connect with those communities? HAVLICEK:  Irina, may I bring my colleague, Eric Rosand, into the conversation. Eric is the director for the SCN, interim director and has been a leading official at the State Department in the counterterrorism department for many years and knows this very well, and is looking at exactly these questions of how this might roll out in the U.S. Over perhaps to you, Eric. ROSAND: Sure, thank you, for including me. I think that’s the other questions from this small town mayors and people representing county governments, is really important one. And it’s one that I think of when we think about rolling out the Strong Cities Network, the United States, it’s exactly the kind of issue we’re trying to get at. In part, because we’ve seen so many of the bigger cities, we’re able to and quickly mobilize to apply for DHS funding or other federal government funding to initiate programs in this area. But a lot of the smaller communities get left out for various reasons. And that’s actually where more and more of the issues lie. And so our hope is that, by connecting more of these localities and counties to our network, they’ll have access to tools and resources and support that they currently have trouble accessing. And they’ll be able to learn much more from other others around the country facing similar challenges, but also from our network overseas, that many of them representing small towns, many of them representing large sort of rural communities as well. So again, I think it’s just another avenue for this work to grow. And I would just—sort of a little plug here is—would encourage all those mayors and county officials on this call who want to get engaged at a very early stage in what we’re trying to do to somehow get in touch with us, or we’ll get in touch with you to try to get you involved because again, we think that’s sort of a missing piece of the of the problem solution set right now that we’re hoping to try to make a dent in here. HAVLICEK:I just listed, your contact details, Eric and mine in the chat in case any body does want to follow up with us about this. And Andy has done the same. FASKIANOS:  Yes. And thank you for doing that. We will also just so we will circulate and make it really easy for people to contact you. We will circulate your emails after this to everybody on the call because I think it is important. I mean part of this is to connect people and to have access to resources and obviously you you’re bringing so much. Alright, so I’m going to go next to a raised hand. And I’m going to go to that goes. Sorry, keep toggling back and forth is not good. Everybody put down their hands. No, I’m looking. Sorry, all the hands were lowered. Okay, that’s why I can’t find any. So I’m going to go back to, we had like three raised hands, and they’ve all gone down. So there is a question from Stephanie Gandsey. What does an intervention look like when someone is identified as extremist? Who identifies and has the conversation on a local level? I don’t know who wants to take that? BERKE:  Well, I can, I can say, and Eric can get there. There are a lot of different models of how you use this. But often, it is some kind of, hopefully, you have people in your community who are trained and understand how to do this, which is the first step and often difficult is how do you use some kind of case management to deal with people? And what are the what are the types of issues that they face? And how do you help them? But I know, I know, we’re running out of time and just say, think that proactively, kind of think about who that could be. And what are the models that they can use? And how can you train them? Those are the--I put my information in the chat. And I think these are the kinds of things we need to figure out together. And how do you how do you adapt that kind of model to your own community, because obviously, that case management might look a little different in in rural North Carolina than it does and in Chicago. HAVLICEK:And there are absolutely models that can be adapted to different contexts that we would use in terms of those referral systems, case management, the concepts for how to set them up, but also the training for those for those constituencies. And sorry, Eric. ROSAND: I will just add that I think the challenge here is the probably this individual isn’t right for being brought to the police because they haven’t necessarily committed a crime. But the people who might ordinarily be best placed to help this individual might be a little bit nervous. A social worker, or a teacher or community member who is a little concerned about getting too close to quote unquote, an extremist. And so how do you sort of build that trust within the community and understandings in the community on how to actually engage with someone who is on the path towards radicalization of violence without having to refer them to law enforcement. And I think that is the heart of the nub of the of the issue here. And a lot of communities just need sort of the team building, collaboration approach that is often missing, when we’re talking about violent extremism. FASKIANOS:  Right, I’m gonna go next to Jonathan Lewis, who has raised his hand. Q:  First, forgive me, I’m one of the people who raised and lowered and now has raised again. Thank you for you forbearance. So, I’m a trustee of the village of Scarsdale in Westchester County. You’ve raised some really great issues in this presentation. I’ve really appreciated learning about the opportunities for engagement. I think there’s a unique set of challenges for local government, a) due to resource limitations b) the challenge of overcoming the inertia that’s inevitable when you need to collaborate with state, county, and local entities. Right? There’s a lot of budgets to collaborate with, and a lot of different silos to be broken down. And so one, if you could sort of help me think that through a little bit and, and how that may work? And the degree to which the police reform issue in the U.S., either is creating new opportunities for dialogue, or is maybe making people less eager to dialogue because of the political heat around these subjects? Thank you. BERKE: Let me let me start with that. And I think you’re 100% right with with all those pieces. So I think one of the ways that I think about this is that any approach has to be multi-sectoral. And so it’s not just government. It’s also how do you get private industry involved? How do you get nonprofits involved? How do you get the civic sector as part of that? And, and one of the reasons that, that I formed the Council Against Hate was to build a table where lots of people could sit and contribute, and they would be different kinds of people. Well, I will tell you, that that we always struggle with multi-governmental levels, on all kinds of things, not just this. But oftentimes when it comes to public safety, we can try to identify those people who might have the, the best attitude or most in line with what we’re trying to achieve. But if we kind of build a table that has not just us at it, but lots of other types of entities, religious leaders, private sector leaders, and, and civic leaders, then that often helps us to also get other governmental entities involved, as opposed to the other way around. So it doesn’t look like it’s just the mayor’s thing, the city mayor’s thing, the state doesn’t want to do it. You know, whatever we have to we have to broaden that responsibility a little bit to create an opening for people. ROSAND: If I can just add to that, I think it’s a fantastic question, because it just highlights how important a network is because I’m sure there are other local leaders around the country grappling with the same issue, and how to understand and how to work in the space. And because the ability to connect with each other is it would be so important to learn from each other. But also, I would just make one point here is, since 9/11, you’ve seen the concept of joint terrorism task force emerge, obviously, across the United States, where you have federal, state and local officials working together in a task force to counter terrorism. But there hasn’t been the same kind of federal state local collaboration around prevention. And I think what you highlight, Jonathan is a critical gap here. And I think something on your network could help advocate for and promote in this country. This sort of layered prevention task forcing. FASKIANOS:  Fantastic. So, Sasha, you had referenced at the very beginning in your remarks on social platforms. And there are a few questions in the chat, or in the Q&A boxes about how do you handle social media interactions when there are extremist sentiments churning within your community? You know, Jess Kramer says there’s a widely viewed Facebook group in his community or in their community where local government issues are addressed. But also extremist ideologies, and conspiracy theories are pushed by the group’s moderator. As an elected official I had stopped posting information in this group out of fear of legitimizing it. But I also worry about isolating/disenfranchising citizens. They’re coupled. So if you could just sort of talk about that. And yeah, and Mayor Berke, maybe. HAVLICEK:I do think that there’s a real challenge here, because engagement and open conversation is an absolutely critical part of how to deal with some of these challenges. And you know, we do that both in in a one-to-one context. So the types of engagements that have worked in terms of interventions across that radicalization spectrum, with those with extremists have been interventions that aren’t combative. They are human outreach. They seek to understand where these people come from. They look at some of the underlying potential causes. And they seek to have a genuine conversation. Establishing a form of relationship, a mentoring relationship is probably the best way in which to prevent somebody tipping over the edge in terms of violence. And so in many contexts, we have set up that kind of direct human intervention. Sometimes we have worked with former extremists to establish those relationships, and counselors to do that work offline. And we’ve actually transferred some of that work online. And we’ve attempted scaled programs and direct interventions carefully with extremists online with people who repeat post dehumanizing and sometimes violent rhetoric online, to try to engage them in a conversation. And I think that those conversations are important to have. But I think there’s a balance to be struck here. The social media platforms do in fact have rules about violent extremism. And if people are posting or running groups that contain violent extremist content and material that should be reported to the platform. And that should, in fact, come down. If there is a way to use that data, however to do then further outreach, we do direct messaging outreach to those individuals. I think it is important, but it also is important to be honest and clear about your own perspective in those interventions. And while they can be human, I don’t think I think it’s also very important not to legitimize those views. So it’s a delicate balance. Again, there are I think ways in which to train up social services, community groups to do this work in a safe in sort of within the context of sort of risk assessments that get undertaken and to do this in a safe way. And I think that they can have a great deal of impact. So I agree that stopping the conversation entirely is not a good thing. It is important to continue to have human outreach and conversation across those boundaries. BERKE:  Let me just add, that I think misinformation is an incredible threat to our democracy. And something that I’m worried about. I, I have teenage daughters, I tell them that I think that’s one of their generation’s greatest threats that they’re going to have to figure out how to deal with is how do you combat misinformation? And so I, I saw in another question, talking about the First Amendment. And of course, we do have this tradition of free speech constitutionally enshrined. That is part of, of what makes us our country so great. I’ll go back to this idea that to some extent, when you’re talking about people posting misinformation in these groups, and that is that there has to be some shared burden to respond. It can’t just be that government, the elected official, or the city manager, whoever, goes into the group and says, “No, you don’t understand here’s the here’s the deal.” There actually has to be some shared burden between people in the community who say on behalf of the community, we don’t believe that this is the, you know, this is not accurate and this type of information can be harmful to us as we try to build, whatever that language is that’s right for y’all. I would be always be careful of, especially as elected or as government officials, trying to tell people this is the information because typically that that can spur more misinformation and disinformation. But there obviously there can be some of that, but you have to create ways to share that burden across again, religious leaders and private sector leaders and nonprofits and community activists so that they can come in and say, listen, we live in a community where we want to tell the truth, and we want to be respectful. And this is this conversation is isn’t getting us there. FASKIANOS:  Thank you. I’m going to take the last question from Lenard Diggins from Arlington, Mass. Q:  Well, thank you. FASKIANOS:  You’re welcome. Q:  And actually, I thought I, I thought I put my hand down here. But I will go ahead and ask anyways, because I think this might be a little bit out of out of scope. So that’s okay. But in terms of how to make the conversations more inclusive, when one side just inherently doesn’t trust the other and or is afraid of, or afraid of the other. And this isn’t so much an extreme example. But when, for instance, if you have folks who are supporting Black Lives Matter, meaning you want to include the police, but then you get complaints that they we’re afraid of the police representing us, how do you how do you get how do you get the inclusiveness that you need, in order to really create an effective dialogue? HAVLICEK:It’s interesting, because we’ve worked in places as challenging as municipalities in Lebanon, which faced terrible division, you know, sectarian division and conflict. And it is interesting to see how nothing happens overnight. But over a three-year process, we’ve been in a position to establish working relationships across the community with the various services required but across the community and community representation across the across the different communities there. In a way that I think has gone further in establishing local trust than anything that’s happened at a national level. And their ability to flag when things when things are heating up and the effectiveness of that approach, I think has been built further trust. And having spent a decade working in conflict environments, it is I have to say, painstaking work, but absolutely possible. In particular, when there is a more conducive political, national, political, geopolitical environment in which to do that. And I say that just because in certain conflict contexts, you can build very, very strong local relationships that then get knocked by a wider conflict happening. But if that isn’t happening, I think that is doable, but it takes a long time. And it means making sure that you do in fact, have representation from all parts of the community at the table. And then you have them working together on problems. And that joint problem solving, I think makes makes a very big difference over time, but it doesn’t happen immediately. BERKE:  I would just echo what Sasha said. Sorry, Irina, just wrote real quick and say that, you know, that trust building, we have to work hard at it. In the in the police and BLM context, for example, every cadet since 2014, or 15, somewhere around there, has done a marginalized community report as part of their as part of their time in the police academy. So every cadet has to go with has to spend time in a marginalized community and then report back to, in Chattanooga, report back to the larger community about—actually out loud, verbally at a big event—here’s what I learned about people of color, about people with disabilities, whatever it is. To try to build that trust, that we’re talking about. That doesn’t mean that it happens overnight. And, you know, we we think about that every day when the when we had protests every night last summer. You know, I made sure that the police chief called leaders of the of the protest to make sure they understood kind of what was going on and what we were going to do and make sure that those lines of communication. That doesn’t mean those things instantly vanish. But it allows us to try it again, build that table with more people at it, and at least over time, have a community that that people know and trust each other, even if they don’t always agree with with the perspectives. FASKIANOS:  Well, thank you all this was a really terrific conversation. There’s so many unanswered questions. But again, as I said, we will circulate email addresses resources from the Strong Cities Network, so that you can follow up and talk specifically about cases or what’s happening in your community. So Mayor Berke and Sasha, thank you very much for doing this. And Eric, for joining us. We really appreciate it. You can follow Mayor Berke twitter @AndyBerke and the work of Strong Cities Network @Strong_Cities. And of course, you can follow us @CFR_local, you know, email us please, [email protected] with topics that you want to cover on other ways we can support you all. So again, thank you to Mayor Berke, Sasha Havlicek, and Eric Rosand for doing this. We really appreciate it. BERKE: Thank you. HAVLICEK:Thank you so much for having us. (END)
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    Responding to China's Belt and Road Initiative
    Play
    Charles Boustany Jr., partner at Capitol Counsel and former representative from the state of Louisiana, and Jennifer Hillman, senior fellow for trade and international political economy at CFR, and Daniel H. Rosen, partner at Rhodium Group, will discuss the findings of the latest CFR-sponsored Independent Task Force report on China’s Belt and Road Initiative and implications for U.S. economic security, climate change, and global health interests. Learn more about CFR’s State and Local Officials Initiative.   FASKIANOS:  Thank you, welcome to the Council on Foreign Relations State and Local Officials webinar. I’m Irina Faskianos, Vice President of the National Program and Outreach and CFR. We’re delighted to have participants with us today from 36 U.S. states and territories. Thank you for taking the time to join us for this discussion, which is on the record. As you know, CFR is an independent and nonpartisan membership organization, think tank, and publisher focusing on U.S. foreign policy. CFR is also the publisher of Foreign Affairs magazine. Through our State and Local Officials Initiative, we serve as a resource on international issues affecting the priorities and agendas of state and local governments by providing analysis on a wide range of policy topics. We’re pleased to present to you today the CFR sponsored independent task force report on China’s Belt and Road: Implications for the United States. So we have with us, our project director, co-project director of the report, Jennifer Hillman, and two members of the task force, Charles Boustany and Daniel Rosen. And these task forces are independent, they are bipartisan and they are co-chaired by a Republican and a Democrat. So this task force was co-chaired by Jacob J. Lew and Gary Roughhead. So I am going to introduce our speakers today and then turn to them on to talk about the findings and recommendations of the report. And we are eager to hear from all of you with your questions and comments.   So in alphabetical order, I’m going to start first with Congressman Charles Boustany. He’s a partner with Capital Counsel. From 2005 to 2017, He served as congressman for Louisiana’s third congressional district. While in Congress, Dr. Boustany served on the House Committee on Ways and Means and was chairman of the subcommittee on Tax Policy, Oversight and Human Resources. He currently serves as a member on the National Committee on U.S-China relations and is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations.   Jennifer Hellman is a senior fellow for trade and international political economy at CFR. Most recently, she was a professor of practice at Georgetown University Law Center. And from 2007 to 2012, she served as a member of the World Trade Organization’s appellate body. Prior to her time at the World Trade Organization, she served as a commissioner at the United States International Trade Commission and as General Counsel at the office of the United States Trade Representative.   And Daniel Rosen is founding partner of the Rhodium Group and leads the organization’s work on China, India, and Asia. He has twenty-six years of extensive experience analyzing China’s economic development, commercial sector and external relations. He’s also an adjunct associate professor at Columbia University, and previously served as a senior advisor for International Economic Policy at the White House National Economic Council and the National Security Council.   So thank you all for being with us today. We really appreciate it, and thank you for this terrific report, which again we circulated in advance of today’s webinar. So Jennifer, if you could begin by giving us an overview of China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the recommendations of the task force that you outlined in this report?   HILLMAN:  Well, thank you very much. Irina, I am delighted to be here to discuss this report, in part because I think China’s Belt and Road initiative is both huge in size and scope and has huge implications for the United States. But it’s often really hard to understand or to get your arms around, and so we really tried in this report to kind of peel back the curtain with respect to what is BRI, what it’s doing, and what its implications are. And I think it’s important to start with, there’s a couple of unique things about this report. First of all, it is very comprehensive. It covers all aspects of the Belt and Road and its implications in the economic arena, the political arena, and the geostrategic. The second thing to me that’s unique is it’s the first report looking at BRI in a post-COVID or potentially post-COVID world. And so we were able to really focus on how COVID has changed BRI, which it has clearly caused a major shift away from a lot of the big infrastructure projects that had been initially at the heart and soul of BRI, the building of ports and railroads and roads and power plants. And that shift has been to move BRI into being very heavily focused on technology, including telecommunications technology, financial technology, and healthcare, now moved becoming a sort of mass diplomacy and now vaccine diplomacy sort of aspects of it. Thirdly, to me unique was that this was a unanimous report, which has not always happened with respect to Council on Foreign Relations Taskforce reports, they’re often sort of dissenting or competing views. Yet we brought together a really wide set of experts, and nonetheless, were able to produce a report that everyone agreed with. And the last thing I think that makes it unique is it includes specific recommendations of what the United States should do to respond to the Belt and Road Initiative.   The report starts out by saying, look, BRI could have been a very positive initiative to fill the major need in many developing countries for basic infrastructure; for power plants and electricity grids, bridges, roads, ports, railroads, but that the way in which China has gone about implementing the Belt And Road has created significant risks for the United States and really for the rest of the world. And I’m going to touch on just sort of six of those clear risks. First, is it can really undermine macroeconomic stability, because it is likely to result in significant debt crises, because it has funded economically questionable projects in heavily indebted countries. It has done so on secretive commercial sort of plus terms, and it has not allowed much sort of debt sustainability analysis. Secondly, it creates risk because it has subsidized privilege market entry for state owned and non-market oriented Chinese companies. Third, it’s enabled China to lock countries in to sort of China’s ecosystems by putting Chinese technology and preferred Chinese technical standards in a number of these countries. Fourthly, it’s made it a lot harder for the World Bank and other traditional lenders to insist on high standards, you know, like environmental impact assessments and social impact assessments. Fifthly, it’s left a lot of countries much more susceptible to Chinese political pressure, where China is saying, okay, you’re now BRI country, we don’t want you to say anything about what we’re doing in Hong Kong or what we’re doing with respect to the Uyghurs, so again, leaving a lot more vulnerability. And the last clear risk that is identified is the fact that China is ensuring a lot of country’s dependence on carbon intensive coal fired power plants that are likely to be in place for 35 or more years.   So then what do we recommend, we recommend that the U.S. has to respond in a number of ways that may implicate the work that many of you are doing, particularly its recommendations that much of the United States response has to be to improve U.S. competitiveness, so that we have a genuine alternative to offer to BRI countries on the premise that, you know, you can’t fight something with nothing. So the United States is going to have to make some significant investments in our own competitiveness, so that we’ve got something significant to offer. And that is going to include a substantial boost to research and development spending, with some of that additional spending being directed very clearly to digital technologies, that we invest in the next generation of technologies such as artificial intelligence, 6G, clean energy and healthcare technologies. Thirdly, that we attract and retain talent to the United States by changes to our immigration and visa system and by continuing to welcome foreign students, particularly in the STEM areas, that we increase U.S. participation in the standard setting organizations. What we’re finding is that China is now leading the way at everything from the International Telecommunications Union, the Codex Alimentarius, the OIE, that are the ones that are setting the standards that are affecting our exports of everything from information and communications technology to agricultural and food products. We’ve got to get reengaged in making sure the standards are not written to the benefit of China and to the exclusion of the United States. And lastly, we recommend a very strong increase in support and additional flexibilities to our development Finance Corporation and our EXIM bank, so that they can do more to promote American exports. The report also has specific recommendations with things that we need to need to do to mitigate the economic risks of the Belt and Road, as well as to partner with our friends and allies and multilateral organizations, as well as specific steps that we need to do to protect us security interests in the BRI countries. But the one that I think it might be of most interest to you are the recommendations that I’ve highlighted, that really go to this issue of what do we need to do to make America more competitive, so that we can reach out to these countries in certain sectors, in certain regions, in a very strategic way to have a legitimate alternative to offer to many of these countries that don’t necessarily want to go down the China road, but who need a genuine alternative. So I will stop there and turn it over to my colleagues that served on this taskforce and whose expertise is what was very much relied upon in drafting this report. Thank you.   FASKIANOS:  Thank you, Jennifer. So Dan, let’s go to you about to talk about the drivers of BRI and how is the initiative affecting the Chinese economy and the economies of recipient countries?   ROSEN:  Thank you so much Irina. And while there were a lot of talented people who served on this task force, if we didn’t have Jennifer to put it all together into a coherent narrative, it would just be a bunch of interesting things lying around on the floor, like a four year olds play room, to be honest. But Jennifer, and the project leaders have done a super job putting it all together. Let me offer a few thoughts here, coming from the sort of global economic perspective around this. You know, Xi Jinping himself, the Chinese leader himself, the Chinese leadership, have postured the Belt and Road Initiative, as a game changingly important Chinese contribution to the international scene. They have defined this, as you know, an development of, you know, epic proportions. So it should not be a surprise to them or anyone else that it would require a lot of adjustment considerations, that there would be a big shock from throwing, as it is, up to like a couple 100 billion dollars a year of Chinese development, purportedly development assistance, into the international economy into the international system. So I think you know, as Jennifer said, it’s kind of a shame here, because it’s not as though there aren’t developmental needs in the world there are, but the manner in which it’s done is critical. And we learned that the hard way, in the advanced economies, right, in the liberal market economies. I have to say, we made a bit of a mess in parts of the world, in the post war era, we learned lessons the hard way about how to do development well, or not so well. China has essentially made a worst basket case out of Venezuela, already a basket case, very hard to do that. But you know, there were many times when the United States too, had a bad experience, trying to do development work. So if the if Beijing had only been ready to build in room for the need to adjust, the need to work with incumbent players in the development world more, as they rolled this huge thing out there really, you know, was the potential maybe still is to get a lot of good stuff done. Unfortunately, that that and that would have been true, even if Beijing did everything right, in how they designed this Belt and Road machine.   However, they have defined it as they’ve gone along. This was not super well-conceived, designed and rolled out right at the start, and it plays many roles. Officially, Beijing will describe it as a development undertaking, of course, meant to help solve the development problem, and many, many nations upwards of 80 or 90 or 100, depending on how you define it around the world. But the reality really is, it is multifunctional for China. China is has been at least as concerned about finding a way to export more of their overcapacity industrial production, at least is concerned about the geopolitical and geostrategic utility to China, of having this big program out there, as they have been about the development, economic development, impact and benefit of this program to so many countries. And I can say that, you know, without any kind of a hawkish spirit, honestly, it really is quite murky, exactly why they say yes, to putting so much debt in the hands of some officials around the world who clearly don’t know how to handle it without getting themselves in their countries in trouble. So the drivers what understanding what the Chinese motivation is, is key to our ability to engage with them to the extent that we want to, and many people in the United States and Europe and around the world have wanted to try to find the most good out of this as we could. And yet the nature of the thing is to actually it’s very hard to do that. Even if you come to it with a kind of good spirit. What is this thing really look like when it when it lands on the ground? On the one hand, it’s China’s policy banks, carrying the Belt and Road program, the imprimatur that gives him the right to offer concessionary low interest financing terms. But it’s also China’s commercial lenders now have the right to use the Belt and Road label to attach themselves to certain privileges and benefits that are available to them back home, that really allow them to compete better, even if they’re not really thinking about the development. And so the boundaries between what sort of Chinese institutions that ostensibly have a development mission, and what sort of Chinese entities that don’t even pretend to be development oriented. For example, China going out as a direct investor and buying Carnival Cruise Lines, and calling it a Belt and Road investment, one of my favorite just because that’s such a colorful notion isn’t it? Sort of, you know, give us a sense of the difficulty of saying, what, what is this and what isn’t it? And some of the smartest people around talking about this stuff would say, well, there’s really no practical use to talk about what’s Belt and Road and what’s not taught Belt And Road in China’s footprint around the world these days, right? It can be that label can or cannot find itself in almost any situation. Let me finish up 60 seconds in terms of the how it is impacted both the host countries and maybe China itself. We learned, as I said a lot about what works in development to really be beneficial locally, right? And what is just kind of helping the center country in some way. And we’ve created rules within the OECD, for example, rules on tied aid that makes sure that when a nation offers to be generous, they’re not really just being generous to their own companies and their own interests, right? So the research shows, unfortunately, that in Belt and Road, lending from China to those countries, 89% of the value of that support is going to come back to Chinese vendors who are selling stuff into the program, right? Only 7% and a little bit more 7.6% I think a BRI money goes to local host country vendors, when China does a BRI financing facility. That’s versus well over 40% when it’s multilateral development banks that are putting money to work in the developing world. So that that’s not the whole story, in some cases, railroads China’s built in Addis Ababa, in Ethiopia, created a lot of economic benefit, I can point to other deals and worked out well for hosts, I can point to many that didn’t, but it’s very much a mixed bag. And in the whole, it sure seems to be benefiting the Chinese export or more than it does local vendors to develop that sort of crowding in of good economic activity in the developing country, that’s being assessed. As for China, there’s a bit of soul searching going on in Beijing these days. Belt and Road, in some ways, is getting China tangled up in the looming crisis of local debt implosions that Jennifer referred to, which, like it or not, they’re gonna own that, you know, they’re making this mess, in part after we did, as I said, we’ve had to clean it up over a year, see the Paris Club and otherwise trying to help create, like better government in the places we’re trying to help. China road in and basically squandered all that good governance work that a lot of really earnest people had been doing for a while by throwing too much money at the situation, I would say. And that, in turn is creating some sense of geopolitical mess that China is going to be blamed for in the not too distant future. Yes, they’ve exports more goods, they’ve gotten the ability to kind of put a wedge in there between some of these host countries and their friends in Washington or elsewhere. But in the long term, there’s some very hard questions they’re gonna have to be answered, I think, in Beijing as well. Thank you.   FASKIANOS:  Thank you. And now we’ll go to Charles, can you talk about how the Belt and Road initiative is affecting U.S. competitiveness in East Asia and how the US might respond to increase competitiveness and love, both at the, you know, in at the federal level and some national level?   BOUSTANY:  Okay, thanks. Thanks, Irina. And it’s a pleasure to join Jennifer and Dan on this webinar. And, Jennifer, I commend you too, for a terrific report and putting it all together as Dan said, this is really readable, a lot of valuable information in it. Belt road is Xi Jinping’s signature foreign policy initiative. And if you think about foreign policy, a big part of foreign policy is foreign economic policy of which there are two areas there’s development and development financing, typically debt financing, of which Dan mentioned both the positives and the negatives of what China’s doing with the debt financing piece. But there’s also trade policy and investment policy which drive foreign economic policy in general. And China’s using all of this to sort of advance its political aims, its geostrategic aims globally. By design, this whole program, if successful, will seek to reorient commerce away from the United States and Europe and put us at a competitive disadvantage, at least that’s their objective. Both Jennifer and Dan mentioned the potential debt risk in the macro economic instability that could occur with this. A lot of this has to do with the fact that there are no transparent rules for the operation of the Belt and Road Initiative and there’s no central governing authority for it. So it’s very difficult for outside companies, American European companies to come in and compete. And of course, Jennifer mentioned subsidies that privileged Chinese companies at the expense of American and European companies, but also IP theft and technology transfer issues, create competitiveness issues for the United States. One of the biggest concerns I have is how the Belt and Road Initiative will sort of, work in tandem with trade policy. Written just last year, at the end of last year, after lengthy negotiations, a very large trade agreement was finally signed, involving 30% of global domestic product with the countries in Asia. This is called the Regional Comprehensive and Economic Partnership. It includes China, Japan, South Korea, the ten Southeast Asian countries that comprise ASEAN, along with Australia and New Zealand. This is a very large trade agreement, it’s going to have a significant impact in the Asia Pacific region. It has rules for e-commerce, digital trade, competition, government procurement, rules of origin, many of the things you would expect in a trade agreement. But the overall impact of this, once implemented, it will drive supply chain development and consolidation of supply chain development in the Asia Pacific region with China, still holding its central position in the supply chains, and really having centrality in a regional value chain network. Plus, it will play a complimentary role with BRI because it will enhance the BRI’s transportation energy and telecoms initiatives as well as some of the healthcare initiatives that are in play there.   The problem is the United States has not mounted a reasonable response to this yet, it’s you know, we’ve been sort of in fits and starts, it’s been a decade since we had a really new trade agreement. The last one that was negotiated, and finally signed into ratification was a South Korean trade agreement during the Obama Administration. So the United States is not engaged in trade, we’re not involved in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. And we pulled out of the Trans Pacific Partnership, which is the other high value trade agreement in the region. And as somebody who was involved in policymaking, I’m hearing from ambassadors, others involved in governments and foreign countries in the region, that there’s a real demand for U.S. engagement in economic space, both in the development sense, and in the trade sense in this region, because we’re falling behind. And that’s the risk, that’s the significant risk to competitiveness that we’re facing in the region. Now, there are things that could be done. This report gives a signal a significant number of recommendations in various areas, whether it’s in trade, you know, dealing with the international multilateral bodies, standard setting bodies and so forth. But clearly, we need significant investment in research and development in this country. And that’s going to include federal dollars going in, but also investments in university and research institutions around this country, coupled with private sector incentives for investment. And this is where local and state communities will come in because A, they will benefit from federal dollars that would be invested in this area. But we cannot mount a competitive response without a full, local, state , and federal partnership to strengthen the American economy, to have a vibrant growing American economy with a good education system, both at all levels, and especially STEM education at all levels.   We also need to amend our visa and immigration policies to attract the best and brightest around the world. Whether we’re talking about students, researchers, scientists and engineers. Jennifer mentioned the Development Finance Corporation and the Export Import Bank of the United States. These are critically important. The development Finance Corporation was a consolidation of other development organizations within the federal government into one, that was a good step forward. But it has a paltry amount of money. And it needs reforms. It needs more money for one. But even that’s not going to compete with the Belt and Road Initiative and development projects alone. We need to allow it to partner with other likeminded countries to create incentives for private investment to follow the government dollars, because then we can compete with China in this in this arena, if private, direct investment comes through. But we’re also going to need to put pressure in a multilateral way on China to meet international standards with regard to the way it lends money, because those their practices are out of line with international norms. And this creates problems for U.S. competitiveness, we need to have a transparent playing field with standards that are adhered to, which means the US needs to push China on enforcement of these measures, whether it’s in trade agreements, or in lending practices, and hold China’s feet to the fire with regards to its commitments. And lastly, on some of these recommendations, we have to get back in the trade game, the United States can immediately start to negotiate sectoral trade agreement starting with digital trade, maybe healthcare goods and supplies, we could look at energy and green energy, good trade in those areas, as starting points, and use those sectoral agreements to try to eventually get back to a point where we renegotiate entry into the successor agreement of TPP, which is the CP TPP. It’s the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans Pacific Partnership. If we don’t get back into the trade arena, we’re going to be at a disadvantage in in terms of participation in supply chains and global value chains, particularly in the Asia Pacific region. And the two things that are going to drive investment and commerce and keep American companies competitive will be the development of these of these global value chains, and the standards that surround them. And if we’re absent in both of those arenas, will fall behind in in our competitiveness. So finally, the role for our state and local governments and economic agencies at the state and local level will be to really assist in creating a vibrant growing community in a 21st century with new infrastructure, education at the highest standards, especially in STEM and partnering with our federal government as part of an overall strategy to meet this competitive challenge for the 21st century. So with that, I’ll stop and then let’s move to questions.   FASKIANOS:  Wonderful, thank you. So we’re going to go to all of you now, you can click on the raised hand icon to ask a question, or you can put your question in the Q&A box. And please also tell us who you are. If I call on you, please unmute yourself and identify yourself as well, so that we know. I’m going to go first to a written question from Kevin Haroff, who is the mayor of Larkspur in Larkspur, California. And his question is, he’s a mayor in Northern California active in supporting institutional efforts to promote renewable energy sources and storage technologies. The US has a lead in the sector, while China seems bent on promoting reliance on fossil fuel energy generation, how can we leverage our local expertise with renewables to help to promote these technologies in countries targeted by the Belt and Road Initiative? And I don’t think you all need to answer that, but who wants to take it right?   HILLMAN:  I’ll at least start. First of all, thank you and it is a great question, and it is something that the taskforce spent a lot of time on, because the concern really is that that China is in essence trying to have it both ways. On the one hand, at one of the recent meetings of these huge BRI forums, China came out with this notion that they are now going to green the Belt and Road and put out a lot of statements about the greening of the Belt and Road. And yet what we’re seeing clearly on the ground is that China has already funded more than 260 coal fired power plants being built, you know, in these BRI countries and is basically allowing countries that often simply do don’t really understand renewable energy. I mean, we’ve tried to dig into why is it that countries are going to China for these coal fired plants? And the answer is many fold. But one of them is China is increasingly the only country out there that will continue to, to finance coal fired plants. Again, the United States and many other countries have completely pulled back and I’ve encouraged the multilateral development banks to back out of funding coal fired power. So you got to go to China, if that’s what you want. Why do countries want it? Again, a lot of the data indicating that for many in these BRI countries, they don’t really understand or trust renewable energy, they perceive coal as being cheaper. And that is, again, something China is promoting why because China wants to have an outlet for its coal. I mean, China is one of the largest coal producers. And again, as sort of Dan was saying earlier, part of the motivation for China is to have an outlet for its excess capacity, including in coal. And thirdly, there is a sense that the again, the alternatives are not well known and are not well out there. So one of the things that the task force is clearly recommending is that the United States, in essence, massively expand a program that was begun under President Obama called Power Africa, which is working to build renewable clean energy power plants throughout Sub-Saharan Africa. And it is unique because it brings together local officials in these countries and in the United States, bringing together technical expertise, you know, again, to help educate local officials on how to run a clean power plant, and bringing together financing and technology, again, from across the United States to invest in this Power Africa. And one of the things many things that we’re recommending is take that program global, and put a lot more money into it, and have the sort of Power Africa model of this public private partnership exist in all of the BRI countries, not just in Africa.   FASKIANOS: Does anybody else wants to add to that?   BOUSTANY: The administration put together, the previous administration put together something called the Blue Dot Network, which was focused on infrastructure and standards, but it’s not well defined. And one of the things we recommend in the report is to give this, you know, let’s refine and define this program is Blue Dot Network beyond just some sort of a branding approach, so that it could attract private dollars, private investment only from the US, but from other market based economies into green technology projects, and renewable energy. So we hope that this current administration will look at this and look at ways creative ways to do this and also to coordinate it with our development bank, our multilateral development banks to focus on renewable energy projects in these energy starving countries. They can model it after the Power Africa program, which has been very successful. That’s I mean, that’s a nice model to build off of, as Jennifer laid out.     ROSEN: Let me offer one more thought on this one. Our competitiveness in renewables will be fought and won at home. If in our home economy, we get serious about transitioning to clean, renewable energy systems and we use the scale of the world’s largest economy, otherwise known as the United States of America, to build that out, prove that out and get good at it, we will kick butt around the world, against the Chinese as well. But make no mistake, they are absolutely trying to do both. They’re not just about coal. China is also the largest installed solar capacity on the planet, for example, and are dumping, putting investing both smartly and in silly ways, massive amounts of money into winning the green energy future of the world, which is going to be 100 years, if not 500 years, or the great market to own, you know, so we’ve got legislative work as Charles could probably talk us all into the night to do here, which is just so challenging to make sure that we’ve taken care of our foundations here at home, that will make it credible, that America wants to be a renewable energy vendor globally.   HILLMAN:  I’d only add that one of the sort of ironies that we really, you really notice when you when you study what China is doing here, is China is can has— if you look at the list of companies producing solar producing hydro, producing wind power, they’re all Chinese companies. The entire list of the most competitive companies in this space are Chinese companies. And yet what they’re largely exporting along the BRI, the majority of their exports in terms of building power plants have not been there, so they’re not exporting a lot of this renewal technology to their BRI countries there. That’s where they’re exploiting the coal fired plants. So part of the other part of what the report recommends is that the United States join with its friends and allies to get serious about saying to China, you have to live up to this green belt pledge. I mean, you have to stop funding coal fired plants, you have to stop funding a whole series of things that even China’s own criteria identifies as long term damage to the economy.   FASKIANOS: Thank you. I’m going to go next to Representative Matthew LoPresti. And he is the Hawaii representative. So if you can unmute yourself.   Q: Aloha, can you hear me? So thanks for doing this. I wanted to address something that Dr. Boustany had mentioned. And he’s talking about state and local governments being involved in assisting and creating, I guess opportunities, but I’m at a loss as to what exactly at the state level we can do. You know Hawaii, for example, has special cultural relations with many of the Pacific countries being, let’s say, targeted by BRI investments. But I don’t really, I just hope for a concrete if not maybe an abstract example of what sort of things we could do at the state level.   BOUSTANY: Yeah thanks, Matthew. I think that’s an open question and frankly, we want to hear more about what the needs are, and how state and local officials envision their role in this. But in a broad way, I mean, certainly sitting from Washington, clearly more investment is going to be needed in STEM education. And so it’s one thing to throw money at it, but second, but how do you create a really high quality program in, you know, high schools, middle schools that, you know, wet those students’ appetites to move on into college and in graduate degrees, to be the next innovators in the world. So education is gonna be, I think, a fundamental area, where there’s gonna be a major role for state and local governments to help us with our self-strengthening, building up our own domestic competitive economy so that we can so that we can compete globally and more broadly, I think that’s the number one area. I mean, the other will be infrastructure, because the federal government’s going to have is apparently on track to spend money on infrastructure broadly, as President Biden has laid out, and looking at how the states use that opportunity, to enhance their competitiveness will be will be critical. I know, those are still sort of on the high level, but again, I think it’s really going to be up to local officials and state officials to figure out how they can position their states to be extremely competitive in a global marketplace.   FASKIANOS: Go ahead.   ROSEN: No, I was just gonna say I’m tempted to point out again, that the our biggest challenge with China and BRI is ourselves ultimately, right? China is a formidable, formidable peer competitor out there for global competitiveness. But we can handle that, if we are aligned and together about our priorities here in the United States and there is a lot of catch up work we have to do to get our policy setting, right? And it’s ultimately it’s got to be built up from the local level, right? That sort of top down vision of what America should do, has left many, many, many Americans, you know, unconvinced that they should change how they think about granting a mandate to Washington to do things for them, whether it’s STEM investment, or, you know, some people still fighting for more coal investment, of course, in parts of the country importantly, right? So, you know, the, it’s got to be bottom up, ultimately, and I’m not sure Matt that answers like, what, what, what we can do for you. It’s more like what you can what we all need to do, wherever we’re sitting to try to work toward a shared vision for what it’s going to take to deal with the world we’re in.   FASKIANOS:  Thank you. I’m going to take a written question from Commissioner Felix Lopez. He serves on the Las Animas County Board of Commissioners in Colorado, and he asked what is the Biden administration’s position on holding China’s feet to the fire? It’s a very broad question.   BOUSTANY: But you know, we’re waiting to see exactly how this is going to play out. So broad approach to China right now is on three fronts confrontation where there are certain red lines, national security, human rights, there will be competition on a broad range of areas, technology, economics, and so forth, and there’ll be areas of cooperation. But we have a phase one trade agreement, and I know that the new U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai has taken it upon herself to be very strong and looking at how to enforce that agreement, which so far has not met targets. Secondly, I think, where we deal with China in international bodies, we need to be very concrete with them, and very specific about where they’re violating international norms or rulings with regard to trade, and to build alliances with other countries to keep the pressure on them. And I think Dan mentioned earlier on the debt side, we, you know, along with Europe, the Paris Club and others, we can put a lot of pressure on China to adhere to the standards, but also the US working with allies can help other countries understand what they’re getting into before they sign on the dotted line, and help them build capacity on how to assess whether their projects are feasible and whether they should sign on the dotted line to accept the kind of debt that China is going to put them in. So I think there are a number of areas where we can do these things, to try to hold China accountable. But we need to do a better job in the multilateral organizations, and we need to be very firm with them, head to head, when we negotiate with them.   HILLMAN:  I just really briefly add to that. As a result of this taskforce report, those of us that were sort of the authors and the co-chairs of it have been engaged in a very extensive series of meetings with both members of Congress, as well as the administration to just talk about the report and what we found and what our recommendations are. And what I can pass on to you is that we have met with your sort of very receptive ears. So I think it’s very clear that the Biden administration is trying to take this very, sort of, you know, comprehensive approach to rethinking how we are addressing the issues with China. I think no major decisions have been made yet on exactly how to approach all of the things that were done during the Trump administration. In other words, the imposition of the tariffs under Section 301, which obviously then garnered a lot of retaliation on the other side, exactly what to do about, I mean, a number of the things that were done, including increased export controls. So again, there’s more controls now on what can be lawfully shipped to China. Again, no decisions yet on exactly what’s going to happen there. There have been more again, investment reviews where there is a greater degree of looking at what China is doing when it invest in the U.S. market. Again, those controls are also under examination. Obviously, the Trump administration started the process that has to this date and continued by the Biden administration in terms of banning the imports of cotton and certain other goods that are coming out of Xinjiang Province on the theory that on the evidence that, that there is a lot of forced labor that is going on in those markets. So right now, those are among the many policies that are part of this very comprehensive sort of review and at the same time, over on Capitol Hill, there is a major bipartisan effort to put together a broad package of legislation that addresses again, the issues that we’ve had with China in a very comprehensive way. So the basic answer to your question is to be determined, but know that I think a lot of work is going on to come up with that comprehensive policy. And I personally think it’s the one of the things that is at that top of the list and is getting a lot of priority attention, both on Capitol Hill and within the Biden administration. And I at least am very pleased that they have taken a very serious look at what’s in this report and the recommendations that we’ve made.   FASKIANOS: Thank you. I’m gonna go to Commissioner John Gentry, who is serves on the Wilson County Commission, so if you unmute yourself, that would be great.   Q: Can you hear me now? Okay, yeah, I’m John Gentry. I live down just to the east of Nashville. I just want to talk about energy for a second. China continues to build coal burning plants even in their own country at an alarming rate as well, as well as exporting them. And at the same time, they are doing windmills and solars and all that. But a lot of what we import from China is, well, are those windmill blades and solar panels as well. And I’m just wondering, sometimes I feel that they’re getting a benefit of us going to green, which I think is the correct thing to do. And I think our companies in this country are not producing as much green energy equipment as we should. And how are we going to address that? Thank you.   ROSEN: Can I kick our first crack at that one? Yeah, this is, here’s, here’s the, here’s the trick. As a local official, if you’re trying to get the most bang for your bond, tax dollar revenue, China’s got something for you, right? You’ve got a refurbished school, you’ve got to build local power assets. And the Chinese products on offer, right, might be by far the most attractively priced for you locally. But in the long run, if we don’t sustain and build up American capabilities to be competitive in these industries, China’s not going to be an affordable monopolist in the world economy, which is the way it’s gone and solar panel there, I dare say predatory behavior in that industry, a few years back, knocked most of the players out of the marketplace, who were starting to put businesses together both in the United States and the European Union as well. And so this is an area where the sort of resetting the incentives and the tradeoff between the short term necessity facing the local official, and the long term necessity of protecting a competitive, American environment where good innovators and people put together businesses that can be, you know, without needing huge tariffs into the future competitive, that is the challenge the Biden administration has in front of it right now. Unfortunately, we’ve really squandered I would say the past four years to roll out a viable set of temporary industrial policy interventions that will set reasonable conditions for a period of time to ensure that in critical areas like turbine blades for windmill, what have you, the unnatural aspect of Chinese prices will not displace the opportunity to build good businesses among market economies that can serve the needs that local officials, at the end of the day, are tasked with finding the best product for their available prices without having to tell people they’re going to have to pay even more of their kids college funds or their Walt Disney World money in their local property taxes to buy, to buy a more expensive blade, right? So that is, it comes down to that, it comes down to money. And it’s going to take a big federal budget, frankly, to fix the distorted situation we’re in right now. And the more we do that, with other likeminded market economies in the world, the cheaper it will be. For us the less long term federal American debt there will be if we don’t do this, not just by ourselves, sticking our finger in the eye of every other market economy on the planet. But absolutely in partnership lockstep, I dare say, with our partners in the OECD and other economies. Jennifer, that’s a big part of the report really underscoring how much low hanging fruit there is for us to deal with this whole thing better if we do it in partnership, I think.   HILLMAN:  The only thing I would add for what it’s worth is clearly the Biden administration is recognizing how important this is in that with respect to the issues of government procurement, the Biden ministration has said very strongly that they are going to adopt much more strict rules on buy America. So again, it is a little bit of the chicken and egg that Dan has just talked to, you know, it’s one thing to say buy America, it’s important to then make sure that there is American product out there to buy. And so we’re going to have to go through this balancing of making sure that we are creating enough American competitive product to buy at the same time that we are putting on stronger and stronger restrictions to encourage government procurement to be in that buy America space.   FASKIANOS:  Great, thank you. Um, I am going to go to, we just got an upvote on a Manish Kothari questions, I’ll go that one next, a member of the Maryland Economic Development Commission. Perception in the host countries is China is willing to fund what they want, and U.S. and Europeans are not listening to what they, the host country wants, but pushing for their Western owned agendas. How do we counter this perception?   HILLMAN:  I’ll just start by saying their perception is right on. And it is important that people recognize how significant this is. I mean, if we read a lot of the data coming out of Southeast Asia and coming out of Africa. Those are both regions in which the amount of U.S. foreign direct investment into Southeast Asia is far greater than the amount of Chinese investment, the amount of U.S. foreign direct investment in Africa is greater than Chinese investment. Yet, if you ask people in Southeast Asia and Africa, who is the most important, the most powerful economic player in fill in the blank your country? The answer is China, China, China, China, because China has done so much a better job, if you will, of branding, what they’ve done. And oftentimes, when American companies are competing in those markets, they’re at a subcontractor or sub subcontractor level in which that American flag is not hanging on that project. So again, there’s less awareness. But the other part of it is that China’s lending is being done without paying attention to the important standards that the World Bank that the United States, that the OECD, that many other countries insist upon. And so part of what the task force recommends, and I think part of what is going to be critical, is to do a much better job of providing technical assistance at the very beginning of a project to help countries understand the sort of pros and cons of using China as opposed to using a US or an OECD based approach. And again, when we have done this, we have been fairly successful, because among the many things that countries are starting to understand, is that if you do a BRI project, the vast majority of the labor will be Chinese labor, you will not get any kind of skills transfer to your citizens, you will not even get any jobs for your citizens because the labor is going to come out of China, and there will be little to no skills transfer, that’s one of the things countries are realizing. Countries are starting to realize that doing these BRI projects can also have detrimental impacts on their environment, and in other ways, and that they’re not always very financially a good deal. I mean, the United States went in early to provide technical support. So this is again, U.S. government, you know, economists, diplomats lawyers, in a single port project in Myanmar, and went in and said, hey, wait a minute, here, let us talk to you about it, let us provide you a little bit of technical assistance before you do this, the cost of that project was brought down from $7.3 billion to $1.3 billion as a result of that technical assistance. So part of what we’re also recommending is that we really gear up this kind of technical assistance that can help countries legitimately compare what does China have to offer and what does it mean for us long term versus what would a US offer or consortium of US, European, Japanese, Australian, you know, other countries actually look like in practice, so that we can put more weight on the things that the United States does well, which is to do good environmental impact assessments and to do labor skills, training, and a lot of the other things that need to be part of that overall package. So it is a lot of really, really upscaling our commercial diplomacy in this effort, among other things.   BOUSTANY: Right, to Jennifer’s point, beefing up our embassies, and giving them that charge, making sure they have the proper number of commercial Foreign Service officers who can provide that hands on technical expertise, working with the private sector entities that are trying to go in and do these projects. Because oftentimes, if we have on the ground commercial service officers in our embassies, who know the players in the respective government, they build those relationships. And then they can assist and expedite the technical assistance that needs to be brought to bear early rather than after the fact when the Chinese have already gotten the contract. So one of our recommendations is to beef up the embassies, with the proper personnel across the spectrum to help with, help the private sector trying to invest in these projects. And then secondly, making sure that the ambassadors and senior folks at the embassies have been given that charge from the very top of our government, that this is something they need to do.   FASKIANOS: Thank you. I’m going to go next to Chris Naff, Selectman Chris Naff. Chris, if you can accept or unmute yourself.   Q: Thank you very much. Can you all hear me? I appreciate everyone’s time. This is the second CFR Zoom chat I’ve been able to participate in and I always learn a lot, so I thank the CFR for putting this together. I think one of the things I’m most fascinated by in recent economic policy is the shift on how we think about trade. And I know, Representative Boustany, I apologize if I get that name wrong. I mentioned, you know, that is probably important to re-engage on trade and rethink our involvement with TPP. But what I really think is interesting is Paul Ryan and President Obama were probably more closely aligned on TPP, than your typical republican voter in 2020. So I think a huge segment of the voting base, particularly in the Republican Party, but also perhaps in the Democrat Party, with the rise of folks like AOC, and Bernie Sanders, probably are all very concerned about what free trade has done to the country. I live in New England. You know, we saw a huge loss of manufacturing jobs to the south about 50, 60 years ago. And I think, if you ask voters in the rust belt, or the quote unquote, flyover states, how they feel about trade, it probably makes them very uneasy. And I think, you know, my main question is, how do we how do we go about addressing employment for working class Americans of all walks of life throughout the country, but also framing it in a way that, you know, Steve Jobs went to President Obama. And I think, to his credit, Obama wanted to try to bring back manufacturing jobs, particularly for things like iPhones. Steve Jobs simply went to the White House and told the president that those jobs aren’t coming back. And shortly thereafter, the president, you know, repeated that to the public. I think you saw a very different approach between Tim Cook and President Trump, where Apple’s began opening more manufacturing plants, the United States not to say that that’s all due to the Trump administration, that probably was a lot of internal discussions at Apple, but how do we make sure that if we do re engage on free trade, were keeping up the progress the last administration made, and getting better jobs for working class and for a certain demographic seeing a true wage increase for the first time in 40 years?   BOUSTANY: Well, that is a complicated question. Trade, jobs related to trade and tradable goods typically played pay higher wages than those that are not in, in trade. I mean, there’s been a lot of work on that. Now, yes, a lot of jobs are displaced. So I think the key is to understand what is the purpose of trade policy? And purpose of trade policy is to basically have a fair playing field with the free flow of goods and services, which the United States can compete with. The issue of jobs gets back to the competitiveness issue. And so that’s what we need to do a better job with domestic policies in the United States, in terms of making our making us more competitive, so that we see good growth of jobs and wage growth as well, I think the bite administration is focused on this like a laser right now going forward, we’ll be interested in seeing exactly what policies they come out with. But for instance, for those who lost jobs related to trade, we had a program called Trade Adjustment Assistance, but it has never really met, met the goals of what it was intended to do. Many of us, myself included, tried to reform that program, but we’ve had a lot of political opposition, and it failed. But the bigger issue is going to be job displacement from technology. And that’s going to be a monumental task going forward in terms of coming up with the right kinds of policies to deal with the rapid change in advance of technology, which is, you know, whether it’s automation or artificial intelligence, which is going to have much more of a damaging effect on jobs and wages in the long run. So the key is how do you build human productivity, not just overall productivity? And that’s going to require a lot of domestic policy changes, as well as you know, looking at what is the purpose of trade? What, where does trade play a role, trade will open markets, but we also need to enforce our trade agreements to make sure that there is fair trade ongoing.   ROSEN: Yeah, I mean, I know, I know we’re at time, but as an economist, I have to applaud the way Charles just put it and underscore this. Trade can make the whole country wealthier in the aggregate, but there’s no joke about an economist who drowns in a river that’s only one inch deep on average, which if you get it means that one inch on average doesn’t mean that it’s only one inch all along, and the nation could be wealthier, and half the people could be poor and less well off. And so it’s not enough just to and, hey, please give the trade guys some credit, they did their part, which was to get, you know, distortions to commerce down. And that sounded pretty American, right? But it’s not the whole deal. We need to think about income distribution and equality of opportunity as well. And there, we are still fighting ideological wars, as though that’s not the right place where policy, the hell it’s not. Okay, if we don’t get everyone up to a certain degree of education, then even if we close the borders small trade, people are going to continue to get poorer within the United States, because the haves in this country are doing really well come good times and bad, they’re doing a pretty good job of keeping things on track. It’s people that don’t have education, don’t have access to health care, don’t have access to a lot of basics, that we have to figure out as a community as a nation, whether we’re going to address that, or wait for the next electoral upheaval, to teach us that people aren’t going to just watch themselves go down in flames. So it’s, it is a brave new world, compared to the one that that we were we were talking about just a few years ago. But trade is not really the problem. It’s the other side of the coin, that needs to be attended to, in my opinion, I say that as a. as a free trader.   HILLMAN:  And I’ll, there’s so much I could add on this. But again, I only say I will certainly underscore and I think our report sort of underscores the acceptance of the notion that it’s relatively cold comfort to someone that’s lost their job to try to tell them, oh, no, you didn’t lose your job to train, you lost it to technology, you lost it to automation, I mean, that doesn’t work. And so clearly, one of the things that this report is saying is that the huge investment has to be in again, helping make America and American workers more competitive. But the second thing that I will say is that, you know, the task force makes it very clear that the clock is ticking. In other words, you know, it would be great if the United States could, in essence, stop the world and say, let us take the next number of years in order to do all of these investments, to develop our own technologies to be more competitive, but the rest of the world is not waiting. And one of the things that’s very clear that’s happening is the rest of the world is engaging in all of these trade agreements. Again, during the time that we were writing this BRI report, along came the regional cooperative economic partnership and agreement among China, Korea, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and all ten of the members of the ASEAN. That covers a third of the people in the world and a third of the GDP in the world. And what it is creating is a huge draw into China, such that many of the supply chains and everything else in Asia are now being reoriented around China, and we are on the outside looking in. We are not a member of the CP TPP, that’s the other big trade agreement in Asia, we are not part of the RCEP, we are watching the BRI agreement, for example, result in major train lines that now run between China all the way through to London. So that we now are having thousands and thousands of freight trains moving goods from Europe in and out of China such that you know, last month for the first time Europe is sending and trading more goods with China than it is with the United States. So again, part of it is yes, we have to get our domestic house in order and yes, we have to understand what trade and trade agreements do for American workers. But at the same time, we cannot just sit on the sidelines, or it may be too late. By the time we ultimately decide that we’re ready to start reengaging in the trade space.   FASKIANOS:  Well, with that, unfortunately, we are over time. Thank you all for being with us today for writing this report, deliberating and writing the report. I commend it to all of you, if you haven’t had a chance to read it, please do. And you’ll find on the website, additional infographics, blog posts and supporting materials. So it’s really rich, rich of offerings there. And I’m sorry, we couldn’t get to all the questions. There are a lot of questions in my apologies. We will send a link to the webinar recording and transcript soon again. Thank you, Jennifer Hellman, Charles Boustany, and Dan Rosen for doing this. We really appreciate it. We’re having our next webinar next Thursday, May 13, on countering extremism at the municipal level. So I hope you will join us for that we will send the invitation is going out now. And you can also follow State and Local Officials Initiative on Twitter @CFR_Local. We encourage you to visit CFR.org and ForeignAffairs.com for more expertise and analysis and you can always send us an email to [email protected] about other topics you would like us to cover or resources that you need, we’re here to be a resource for all of you a nonpartisan resource, so thank you all again, stay well, stay safe, and thank you.   (END)
  • State and Local Governments (U.S.)
    Broadband and Bridging the Digital Divide
    Play
    Kathryn de Wit, project manager of the Broadband Access Initiative at Pew Charitable Trusts, and Francella Ochillo, executive director of Next Century Cities, discuss expanding broadband infrastructure and how communities can work to bridge the digital divide. FASKIANOS: Thank you. Welcome to the Council on Foreign Relations state and local officials webinar. I'm Irina Faskianos, vice president of the national program and outreach at CFR. We're delighted to have participants from forty-nine U.S. states and territories with us for today's discussion on broadband and bridging the digital divide. Today's discussion is on the record and will be posted on our website. As you know, CFR is an independent and nonpartisan membership organization, think tank, and publisher focusing on U.S. foreign policy. Through our State and Local Officials Initiative, we serve as a resource on international issues affecting the priorities and agendas of state and local governments by providing analysis on a wide range of policy topics. And we're also the publisher of Foreign Affairs magazine. So I'm pleased and honored to introduce our two speakers today, Kathryn de Wit and Francella Ochillo who will give us their insights and analysis. We previously shared their bios with you so I'll just give you a few highlights. Kathryn de Wit is the manager of the broadband access initiative at Pew Charitable Trusts. Her research focuses on how states are approaching the connectivity gap. She was previously an associate at Booz Allen Hamilton, where she focused on telecommunications issues. Francella Ochillo is the executive director of Next Century Cities. She's an attorney and digital rights advocate and has worked on a variety of technology and telecommunications issues. She serves on the FCC's Consumer Advisory Committee and previously served on the 2020 Broadband Deployment Advisory Committee's disaster response and recovery working group. So thank you both for being with us, we really appreciate your taking the time. Kathryn, I thought we could begin with you just to give us an overview of the state of broadband across the country and the barriers that you've seen in the national connectivity. And this of course, stepping back, President Biden just announced the $2.2 trillion infrastructure plan with a sizable amount earmarked, or that he would like to focus, on broadband. So Kathryn over to you. DE WIT: Sure and thank you so much for inviting me to speak with all of you today, it's certainly an honor, and I'm always thrilled to share a panelist stage/screen with Francella, so I'm just really excited for a good conversation. Level setting on broadband--this is a really exciting time to be working in broadband. I'm squinting at you a little bit because it still feels a little weird to acknowledge that the pandemic has really been essential in accelerating our conversation about addressing the digital divide. And what's exciting--I think the most exciting part about that is that we're not only talking about the availability of connections, we are talking about the affordability of those connections. We will not be able to achieve universal access until we address both of those barriers. And I say that because technology of broadband, it's not just about whether or not you have this connection in your home, it's about whether you can afford it, whether or not you can use it to improve your economic outcomes, your social benefits, your access to education. We as communities don't see the benefits of those connections until we combine both the infrastructure and the usage. So when we're talking about, particularly the President's American Jobs Plan, that is one thing I know that personally got me really excited was seeing, yet again, this focus on the availability, this focus on equity, this focus on affordability, which again is why we invest public dollars in getting folks online. So let's take a quick step back folks, I could talk about this for a while. Let's take a quick step back and do a level set on sort of where we are, which is actually not easy or quick to do but I will do my best. So when we talk about how many Americans are online, we can't actually answer that question. We can say broadly, the Federal Communications Commission says that, I think, fifteen million Americans still lack access to broadband. And that number is significantly higher than fifteen million. An estimate from, I think, 2017, Francella, from Microsoft, said that it was as high as 162. Was it 2017 or 2018? OCHILLO: It was 2018. DE WIT: 2018, thank you. Said that it was as high as 162 million. You know, other entities put that number somewhere around forty-two, forty-five million. So, that in and of itself, you're all policymakers we like to be able to count. Let's figure out where we're starting from, we don't know yet. So when we're talking about the role of state and local officials, this is a really important role that state and local officials can play is one, just helping us figure out what is the problem? What is the availability gap that we need to be targeting? The other element of what we don't know about our connections are the quality of those connections that are available and the cost of those connections? If we don't have an understanding of both quality, and that includes speed and reliability, and cost. We are significantly hampered in our ability to draft appropriate public policy interventions that will help us meaningfully address the digital divide. So what seems like a seemingly simple answer is not. I'm happy to detail and explain some of why we don't know this information. I'm also happy to share some research which may be a little bit easier. So we're starting at this number, at least fifteen million, and based on the pandemic, we know that it's significantly higher than that--Americans who actually don't have access to broadband. Then we have a number of Americans who have access to broadband speeds, maybe, but slightly less, and those where connections may be available but they can't afford them. So we're really looking at a pretty big group of Americans who either don't have access to a quality connection, don't have access to a connection at all, or just can't afford it, or fall in all of those categories. So I think it's important to also look at the pre-COVID and post-COVID. Pre-COVID, a lot of the discussion was focused just on the availability of connections, most of the public funding was pushed into rural communities and exclusively focused on the "unserved," what the data told us was unserved. What the pandemic showed us very quickly, first is that the problem of unserved is not just limited to rural communities. It also emphasized why we needed to be coming up with more sustainable and holistic solutions to address the affordability crisis. Both the federal government and state governments have responded by standing up emergency affordability programs but they are short-term and they're likely not enough. So one thing that's notable about the American Jobs Plan is that the President calls out that we need more sustainable and long-term solutions to addressing affordability. I have my thoughts on what that may or may not mean, I'm sure Francella does as well, which maybe we can entertain at a later point in this discussion. So there were a couple of significant federal funding initiatives in the last year that have put money towards broadband deployment. One of them was the CARES Act, another was the December consolidated appropriations bill, and the American Rescue Plan. Look for funding announcements related to the December appropriations bill they should be coming out early summer. There's 300 million for deployment through NTIA, there's a one billion--that's with a B--program for tribal communities, and another 300 million for the Connecting Minority Communities pilot initiative. The American Rescue Plan set aside about 300 billion for states and local governments, broadband in that fund is an eligible expense. We are waiting on funding guidelines both for that 350 billion as well as another ten billion that may be exclusively used for broadband. Those funding guidelines should be coming out from Treasury again in early May. That may change, you know, it's not just up to the reporting agency as to when they can release these funding guidelines, there are a lot of layers of approval that they need to go through but right now they're targeting early May. Going back to the update about the American Jobs Plan, the President calls out a couple of notable things. So the first is acknowledging that Americans not only don't have access to broadband, they don't have access to broadband that will be useful well into the future, it's also unaffordable. When we are talking about the affordability of connections, it's not just the affordability of connections for low-income households, it's the affordability of connections for all Americans. So the President has put a stake in the ground saying it's time for us to address this. The other piece that is noteworthy and has caused quite a bit of, we'll say, discussion in our field is the fact that the President explicitly calls out two things--that's the investment of future proof technology, that's also a focus on community-driven and community-led solutions. That includes municipal networks, cooperatives, and I'm sure that I'm forgetting something else in here. But that's what's happening, that's what shaping the national debate in DC. And I will turn it over to Francella, I guess, or Irina for the next update. FASKIANOS: Kathryn, that was terrific. And Francella turning to you now to talk about what state and local communities are doing to bridge digital divide pre-COVID, during COVID, and what they should be doing. So over to you. OCHILLO: Thank you so much. And I do want to just fan girl just for a second on Kathryn. She did some pretty outrageously great work last year and, to that end, she is now a director in her program at Pew Charitable Trusts, so I'm really excited just to be able to share time and space and even the stage with her. When we think about what did connectivity look like pre-COVID and post-COVID? For me, traveling from city to city, I think between July and November of last year, between July and February of 2019 and 2020, I got to eleven cities. A lot of the times I am talking to people in their city hall, their town hall meetings, in their offices, in places where they are brutally honest but also very aware of the fact that they have limited resources and limited power. And I think that a lot of the times, you know, when I go back to one of my trips, when I was in California, one of the advocates that I ran into, the student was--this was back in 2018--he would type his reports on his phone, he would send them by his cell phone to his friend who would print them out so that he could turn them in at school. And I want to make sure that we're putting this in perspective, that same community still is disconnected in 2021. And I want to make sure that when we're thinking about, picking up something that Kathryn was talking about, you know, this not just being about making sure that people have access but that it's affordable. We have to constantly think about even if someone has digital infrastructure in their neighborhood, how do we get it across the front door? Because there are too many communities, too many towns, villages that I go to that people will tell me, "Yeah, we have internet nearby but it is $110 a month. It's $90 a month. That's one more bill that we just can't afford." So I think that COVID forced us all to have this reckoning with the very thing that so many communities already knew before COVID. That a lot of them when they're thinking about federal funding for years, at least for the last decade has been exclusively focused on infrastructure to the exclusion of adoption programs in which local and state governments were expected to fill in the gaps. It was "even if we give you the money for the infrastructure, you're expected to come up with some sort of solution to not only make sure that your people can have access to the network, that it's affordable, that they get a device and that you help support digital literacy, and tech support. You're on your own." And what we know is that that plan, it worked for the people who can afford it, and then we found out that most of the country couldn't. And so here we are in COVID, where we're having trouble measuring exactly who's disconnected. The data is actually usually limited to access. When we actually need to know about access and affordability. And now that we're in this moment that people are thinking about, well, how do we fund adoption? I think that sometimes when people get hesitant about the big numbers around broadband, it's because sometimes we don't know what to fund and so it's very difficult when you don't know exactly what the problem you're trying to solve. So for some communities, it's going to be we need infrastructure, full stop. For other communities, it's going to be we need to get upgrades because we're still working off a 5/1. We have money that is going out the door today for 10/1 networks in Alaska and that doesn't make any sense. That we actually know at 25/3 benchmarks, there are people who are saying that's still not enough but we're using public funding on these outdated networks. So I want to go over four things. Number one, what we know from the most successful municipalities is that they treat broadband like infrastructure. One of the communities that we talked to, they actually said when they built their network, one of the smartest things that they did was they built it out of their infrastructure department just like they did for water, sewer. If you needed to call for a pothole, you called the same place that you did to get help with your broadband. The reason why is because he said, "I could do twenty-four hour response. I had much more opportunity. And I could finance it in a different way than if it was coming out of IT." So it was just a smart move. But in a way, it's now 2021 and we're just getting around to the thing that lots of successful communities knew--it's always been infrastructure. The reason why they treated it like infrastructure is because they saw the direct correlation not only just around education and telehealth that everybody talks about but the most resilient communities have reliable networks. Those are the communities that even if there's job loss, they have opportunities to upskill and retrain their residents. Those are the communities where residents actually have work from home opportunities and they're also the ones that have higher digital literacy. It's really important for us, we cannot separate this access conversation from digital literacy because when you think about the fact that even today over 60 percent of mid-skilled jobs require some element of digital literacy that means that we need to get the digital infrastructure across your front door, we need to make sure you have a device to be able to plug in, we need to make sure that you can do more than set up an email account, and make sure that you can do something with that connectivity, just to make sure that you're contributing into a digital society. So there are a lot of stars that have to align for that to be useful. But some of the most successful municipalities are not only thinking about the funding that they have to make that happen, but also the manpower. Because, you know, I remember talking to one of the advocates on the South Side of Chicago, they applied for this grant, basically in the middle of COVID, they said, "We don't have any money, but we've got manpower, and we've got love." And so they literally locked arms, they filled out a grant application, and said, "If we can make sure that these small businesses stay open, then we all win." And so for them, it was about making sure that they can actually just do something in their neighborhood and they said, "Well, we can contribute on teaching people how to use it." And that's a resource that doesn't show up on a balance sheet but that we need because it's still not enough for them to have access nearby. Another thing I want to point out is that when we're thinking about these great ideas and they're amazing, all sorts of the wonderful things have come out of COVID, I want us to be aware of what is the cost of inaction because sometimes we have all these amazing ideas that just sit in incubation. And if we have these great ideas that are sitting in incubation for two and three years, we already missed a very, very, very important train stop. So I want to make sure that we are taking the time to--yes, we want to get this right but we cannot let perfection be the enemy. There are over 10,000 municipalities nationwide. There are lots of communities that are going to be able to figure out the solution that's right for them but there's no solution that's going to be right for all communities. So what we need to do is we need to move on the things that are working and be able to retool on the things that need more thought. And I encourage people, when you're thinking about operationalizing your plans, maybe you don't have a plan for all of the money that you get from your grant but maybe you decide, "I'm going to start with a feasibility study and I know for sure in this neighborhood that's actually subject to digital redlining, they need our support today." So I think it's important for us to be able to see that there are going to be some parts of the community that need an immediate redress and there are others that can wait. Another thing that I want to point out is that when we're talking about the mapping problem, it's not just about not being able to solve the problem, it's about the fact that we need to start coming up with some standardized metrics to actually say, who's actually getting it right? And so at Next Century Cities we're working on a report to actually talk about the methodologies and the contradictions that we've seen at every level of government--local, state, and federal--but what we don't have is we don't have any sort of consistent metrics. We literally studied all fifty states and territories and couldn't come up with a single benchmark. So I encourage local officials to actually speak up, ask the federal government to be able to create some sort of framework just like they would for food security, just like they use for SNAP, just like they use to decide on who actually needs healthcare. We can do that for broadband. And finally, I just want to close this part with just saying, when I think a lot about who's disconnected, I think all the time as advocates we're always stuck in this very reactive posture, we're always trying to react to terrible things are happening, we're trying to make it less bad, you know, and it makes it hard to dream. And I think that one of the things that tech companies have on us is that they have things locked down so they actually get room to just sit in a room and just dream things up. And I encourage local officials, set aside one meeting of your entire year just say, "This one meeting, we're actually going to set aside time to say what we could do with connectivity, instead of just saying who doesn't have it?" Because I think that when you're constantly reacting, you're going to make decisions that that are short-term solutions. When quite frankly, we need to be thinking long-term. What is the speed benchmark that we need ten years from now? What is the infrastructure that you need to make sure that we can make that happen for every resident, not just the ones with resources? And also really thinking about how our ideas of digital equity fit into that plan because that is very much a part of the infrastructure as well as the adoption plans. FASKIANOS: Fantastic. Thank you both. Let's go now to all of you. (Gives queuing instructions.) This is a great opportunity to ask questions and we already have four hands raised. Fantastic. So I'm going to go first to Amy Croover and if you could unmute yourself and state your affiliation and state would be great. Thank you. Q: Did I raise my hand? I don't...Amy Cruver? FASKIANOS: Yes, your hand is raised. Q: Well, I didn't mean to. Sorry. OCHILLO: Hi, Amy it's good to see you. FASKIANOS: Okay, so we'll go next to Dan Kalmick who has raised his hand I think. Hi Q: Hi, my name is Dan Kalmick. I'm a city council member in the city of Huntington Beach in Orange County in California. We're a pretty well built out city, Verizon installed Fios but digitally redlined some of our communities. We have, you know, some private areas where they wouldn't allow them to dig up the streets. Spectrum is our cable provider. And so we're a, I'd say, a socio-economic decent community, I'd say like we're doing okay but we have some low income communities. And we own all of our streetlights in our city. So we're looking at trying to move things forward but we're kind of getting stalled out on what our goals are and where all this money is coming from since we're not a rural community, we're not a tribal community. We've got some decent revenue but we'd like some help to invest in that and it looks like the state of California is going to show up with some bonds, federal government is going to show up with some money. But how do we frame I guess, this expansion to be able to provide internet? Because I think you spoke earlier, yeah, Fios is available, but it's $80 bucks a month, right? That's too expensive for folks. And we've got some senior communities where they're fixed income, so it's too expensive but it's available. And the asymmetric speeds that we have with Spectrum aren't good enough for a family of five trying to do Zoom calls all day. So if you could speak a little bit on how do you qualify in that kind of middle tier where it would be a hardship on the city to start spending money on this but we'd like to be able to qualify for some of the federal dollars. FASKIANOS: Who wants to take that? DE WIT: Francella, why don't you take the first pass? OCHILLO: Okay, gotcha. So one of the good things that you have on your side is that you actually own your streetlights. I think any cities that own streetlights, you have rooftop access, you have dark fiber, all of those resources help. Because a lot of the times you can, number one, actually decide from now on anytime we do construction projects, we're going to actually install conduit in X. And so the thing is that might be on your city center, it might be within X amount of miles of whatever, you guys can decide. But I think that a lot of the times local officials don't take advantage of resources that you have in front of you. It's going to be very difficult. I remember one city in Indiana called it the "tale of the midsized city" because you don't qualify for the unserved and underserved money, but the thing is you're not quite this metropolitan area. But it doesn't matter where you are because it matters to the economics of the city. So I think that one of the things you can also do is build community buy-in on why this is an economic development issue. I think all the time, I feel like that is an issue that it doesn't matter, it goes beyond partisan lines. When we're talking about the fact that literally eight out of ten mid-skilled jobs need some sort of digital literacy and you need some sort of access. So that means that you're bringing work from home opportunities into your community, you're being able to attract other businesses that might setup and create more jobs. I think it's important that we do the framing around what exactly it is that you're actually going to be able to bring to your community when you have consistent, reliable broadband. And also thinking about it is actually something that helps people retain their populations, and people can age in place in a way that they can't. One of the things I remember when Illinois was doing some of their work, this is back in like 2017/2018, and they were talking about some of the reasons why they were losing people in some of those cities downstate were because they didn't have reliable connectivity so people just moved across the border. And so we have to really be thinking about this in a holistic way. And also when you mentioned the thing about the low-income populations, I think that that's going to be a challenge in every single city, being able to find what is that sweet spot of where we can help low-income populations afford it. One of the most successful things we've seen is when people partner with their HUD offices. Recently legislation was in Maryland where they actually introduced having an Office of Digital Equity in HUD and part of it was to make sure that when they're building any new housing development, they actually have options for connectivity. Just like when you go check-in with your landlord, you find out you're eligible for utility assistance, you know, any other services, that broadband would be one of those things. So I think it's a matter of you're not always going to win in your negotiations with your incumbents. I always feel like that is a long battle where I think sometimes incumbents actually take advantage of the fact that cities don't have the money to fight them in court. I'll give you an example, loose fiber is a great example of one where all of those fights lasted almost 10 years. It's a long haul when you're fighting with people to expand networks but I think that it's a good move to start with the resources that you have in your hands. DE WIT: I would add to that. I agree with everything that Francella just said, particularly the point about planning, which is something that we haven't discussed at all which I think personally is--candidly this was, I think, the most surprising thing to come out of our research on states is the emphasis that states in particular are putting on capacity building, on planning, on data collection at the local level. Why? Because it helps them secure funding. It helps them do the community buy-in that Francella was talking about. About focusing on the economic outcomes, why are we doing this? Doing the education to help illustrate why these connections are useful and beneficial to the communities at hand. So I think to your point about the affordability, going out and getting some of that information, not just on "what's affordable." And sorry I think somebody else asked this in the chat, it's not just about what is "affordable" for a broadband connection. First of all, I barely understand what 25/3 is, most people don't. I'm not an engineer, it's okay, this is a safe space, I'm comfortable admitting that. But you know, it's not about the speed and the numbers that we're attaching to policy, because like candidly, that really only matters to policymakers. It's about what you can use with those connections. So as you're talking about and trying to understand this notion of affordability, what can families afford? What are they willing to pay for? It's important to tie that to would you be willing to pay for faster speeds that would enable you to have multiple users on the laptop at once? Or on your connection at once? Who are video chatting? Are you willing to...? This is a terrible example. You understand what I'm saying, though. So as you're collecting this data to, one, both understand sort of where are your pockets of inequity? Where are those pockets of digital redlining occurring? But considering the flip side with the adoption and that willingness to pay what is reasonable for these families? Gathering that data is not only helpful in your discussions with providers, it also is going to be a really powerful tool for your state leaders, in particular. And I'm sorry to other folks on the call, but those of you who live in California do have a little bit more of an asset in your back pocket because you have the CPUC and you have the California Emerging Technology Fund. So being able to go to those entities and say, "Look, this is the information that we collected. This is what we think are the thresholds to pay. Can you help us?" There's a broadband adoption account within the California Advanced Services Fund but you also have two very powerful public advocates who are willing to elevate these issues and fight for these issues. And to Francella's earlier point, just to push back. OCHILLO: And I don't want to belabor the point on this but that CPUC piece is so big. CPUC proceedings are very often the thing that other states that haven't quite figured out broadband, they're actually looking to CPUC for direction, DE WIT: Yes, they are. OCHILLO: Always want to encourage local officials. We have filed in the CPUC proceeding on behalf of our municipalities, we have over thirty member municipalities in California. Sometimes it's important to actually just get your city story on the record. I think that it's really important just to actually just for the sake of saying, "I'm here. We matter. Here are the statistics in our city. Here's what we need." Because I do know that some of the digital divide funding in California is limited so I'm not sure of all of the requirements there but I think it's really important that you use the social capital that you have there for people who will elevate your story in a way that they wouldn't in any other state. FASKIANOS: So there are two questions in the chat both about mapping from Annie Bemuth of the Ohio House of Representatives and Mark Luberda from Walworth County, Wisconsin about mapping. What steps are being taken to create a map to find where there are holes in the coverage? What would be the cost of creating these maps? And how would you find the maps to determine areas that are and are not served? And then what would be the second step? So if you can walk through all of those that would be great. DE WIT: So when it comes to mapping, I mean really, we're talking about data collection, and people just like maps because we like visuals. But when we're talking about going out to understand, you know, what is the availability that is in your state? In your county? It's surveying. It's working with local leaders to say what do you know about the state of connectivity in your locality? I know that...I'm sorry, I cannot remember the name of the representative who elevated this question in Ohio. But, you know, there have been efforts on the ground in Ohio, led by Connected Nation and others, to develop a more granular form of mapping. I don't know where those stand. I'll be frank with all of you, we in our research did not find investing in a significant mapping effort at the outset of a broadband initiative to be always the most effective use of funds because at the end of the day you have a map. Can you spend a fraction of that money on a survey and some community outreach and engagement to get a good enough understanding of where connections are and are not, in order to, again, just get started and get the ball rolling. Additionally, as you get those projects started, as you start engaging in some of these planning efforts, these feasibility studies, these needs assessments, you'll get a more granular understanding of where connectivity is and is not. Perhaps more importantly, it will give you a better and more robust picture of the type of data that you need in order to actually solve the digital divide. Because you may get into this data collection process and realize, you know what it's not necessarily that the infrastructure isn't there, it's that the infrastructure needs to be upgraded. Or that it actually is it's about pricing and cost or it's about reliability. So I think don't necessarily focus a lot of resources and funds on getting that like premise-to-premise measure of where broadband is and is not, you'll get there eventually but get that basic understanding. But more importantly, get folks around a table to say these are what the problems are, this is what we need help solving and then that will help focus your data collection efforts from there. But in general--and this is a very hot topic, I will say, within states, in particular, of whether or not to spend on data and mapping. State leaders have some very firm opinions on this. I'm chuckling because they really do have very firm opinions on this. But really what it is, it's about why are you collecting that data and how is it being used? So in some cases, we do see state programs, in particular, using those as educational tools for policymakers to demonstrate the impact of the investments over time, to demonstrate progress. They're not necessarily to isolate where the gaps were to begin with. I'm kind of talking in circles here but my short explanation is-- start with surveys and really engage your local officials, your school leaders who will have a much better understanding now, in particular, about who has connections and who doesn't. Your community centers, your senior facilities, get those folks around the table, they will be able to give you a good understanding of the availability of connections in the community. Francella may pop in here and be like, "Kathryn you don't know you're talking about," so I'll turn it over to her. OCHILLO: Not at all, I was honestly just thinking, if people are doing feasibility studies, one of the things I get all the time is that they'll tell me, "We got low participation in certain areas." And I was like, "Well, how did you do your survey?" Mostly online-- DE WIT: Online. OCHILLO: --And I'm like, "Okay." So let's try to do some of those surveys in person. Let's catch people at the grocery store, in their places of faith, community centers because a lot of the times the people who you are trying to actually get a granular number, they rely on schools and libraries for regular access, and also their cell phones. So you have to decide what exactly it is, to Kathryn’s point, you're going to do with this information. But one of my favorite things that came up in our research on that over the past few months is that some states and cities are actually asking people to challenge their information so they'll give them a portal where they can challenge it on an ongoing basis so that they can make the maps better. DE WIT: Yeah. And I don't know, sorry, I hope this was apparent from Francella and I were explaining, but the reason why we all yell about the data and maps is because they influence billions of dollars in funding every year. So that's how the federal government decides which census blocks are eligible for funds, this is how many states a lot of them use some of the FCC data for their decision-making, many of them start there, and to Francella's point they use that to initiate meaningful challenge processes, not just like. We should actually probably too, Francella, talk like meaningful community engagement and kind of what that's looking like across the country. OCHILLO: Well, I don't want to assume anybody knows how the FCC actually determines that your community is served. Just so that you know, quick and dirty, they literally ask companies, all of your providers in your area, to submit a Form 477. On that data, they say who they're serving and if at least one household on a census track is able to be served, they do not have to actually have a subscription, but if they are able to be served, that block is counted as served. And so what happens in a lot of these communities is that you'll find out, hold on a second, that data tells a completely different story when you show up in this community. I mean, I remember when I was in Michigan, I was literally left the DFW, whatever that airport was, and it's like it falls off. Literally there's like nothing in certain patches and I pulled over at McDonald's to make sure that I can check my email, to make sure I was going to the right place but if you look we pulled up the county information and it actually said it was served. So, you know, for us, a lot of the times we'll run into cities and counties that say that the FCC's data is incorrect. They don't know how to fix it and what is more problematic is that usually the state maps start with FCC data. FASKIANOS: Fantastic. Let's go to raise hand. Jarett Smith. Q: Hi, Jarett Smith, councilmember Takoma, Maryland. Maryland's eighth congressional district. Thank you guys for giving me a chance to ask a question. In the American Rescue Plan, I'm getting different information, will there be money for actual hardware purchases for people that are trying to access the internet? One. And two, can that benefit, if it is available, be combined with the $100 benefit that was in the last, I guess, CARES Act that was appropriated by Congress? OCHILLO: So Kathryn you want to dig into EBB and that, okay? So number one, I always want to caution people, whenever you hear about money that's coming through legislation, nothing is final until the final. It does not matter how many outlines you see, nothing is final until the night that it is actually passed. So even though there's interest in being able to support not only service but also devices. And also municipalities and states will likely be able to use that funding to support it just like you would on rental assistance, utility assistance, and things like that. There is no guarantee that it will cover devices. When you're talking about the device benefit that came through the Emergency Broadband Benefit--the Emergency Broadband Benefit is a program for low-income households, those households are going to be entitled for a $50 discount. If you're in a tribal lands you're going to get up to $75 discount off of your broadband service. So you choose your service provider within the list of the participating providers that the FCC has approved. With that package, if you qualify for the Emergency Broadband Benefit, you will get up to $100 to use on a device. It is a onetime benefit. And again, the program lasts until the money runs out, unless Congress replenishes it, but essentially, this is to ensure that low-income households are able to get competitive service throughout the pandemic. One of the things that I worry about when we're thinking about the devices, it is still very hairy when some providers provide a device, other providers don't. And I think there is an onus on the consumers to be asking questions when they're comparing because that's part of why advocates are asking for transparency, not only in the prices that they're paying but what exactly is included in the service offerings because, quite frankly, a lot of the people who are in most need are also very suspicious and untrusting. So the thing is, it's going to be very difficult to get some of those people to sign up for the benefit, even though they rightfully qualify if they feel like it's going to cost additional obligations. So right now the FCC has opened up a portal. I'll drop the information in the chat. They've opened up a portal for community leaders to sign up for updates. They are sending out emails. They've also asked people to be partners for the program. They're going to be sharing information that's plug and play materials that you can share with community leaders and others. It's going to be in at least four languages, including English, Spanish, and four AAPI languages. And then also they are constantly updating the list of participating providers on a rolling basis. But I think it's really important, especially for local leaders, to be able to give direct feedback, whether it's to the Commissioner's offices, to their staff, to document their stories on the record. Because, again, these are programs that are developed in hallways of DC. Yes, they get input from other people but it's really important that local leaders give community level impact. If you have any trouble getting in touch with anybody, I'm happy to put you in touch to set up a meeting. FASKIANOS: Fantastic. And we will send out a follow-up note with links to the resources that you both are putting into the chat. And I encourage you also to everybody on this webinar to look at the Q&A. I see there are lots of questions but people are sharing what they're doing in their communities so you might just want to scroll through that. There are a couple questions from people about what you would consider the city or state that you consider to be a model or has done a better job than other cities, states bridging the digital divide? And similarly...where did that go? Right, there's another question or a comment from somebody in Texas in Fort Collins. Working with municipal broadband working on it at the county level as well but it's been more difficult in the county because we're dealing with existing providers instead of our own broadband. DE WIT: Okay, model states. This is always a fun question, to which I say there is no model state.  I say that because, by and large every state is different so, therefore, the programs that are put in place need to be different. And I say that every state is different, not just because they are, but because you're talking about different topographies, you have different policies in place within states, you have different provider footprints. Some states, going back to our California example, you're looking primarily at large incumbents who are there, they don't have a footprint of cooperatives to pull in, to help drive some of these more locally driven solutions. That's not the case in states like Minnesota and South Dakota. So that context is really important and I think that one that is not discussed enough. But when we're talking about state programs that have been successful, these programs have been successful for a couple of reasons. First, they are pulling in that diverse stakeholder engagement. They are focusing on working with those who represent rural populations, urban populations, they pull in educators, healthcare facilities, the private sector to figure out what's the problem at hand and, more importantly, how do we actually solve it? That type of stakeholder engagement continues through drafting public-private partnerships, or in some cases, community-led networks, where they are really focused on, one, sharing risk between the public and private sectors, but, two, ensuring that communities get equitable connectivity--they get the connectivity that they were promised. So in some cases that is just in service agreements, that's making sure that providers are not just building to the most profitable areas of a service area. That means that those houses in a service area are actually served. In other cases, those are service requirements and that these internet service providers who were receiving grant funds are operating those networks for at least five years. Which invites another discussion about operations and optics that we can delve into it another point. Another thing that some states do are they put pricing requirements in place. So in some cases, providers have to submit the prices, including low cost offers that they already have in place and they must agree to adhere to those pricing tiers throughout the course of the grant. Finally, we're seeing states also consider other factors, not just whether or not a community is unserved or underserved, they're looking at the economic impact of that network. They are looking and gauging on whether or not a provider has actually gotten out into the community and said, "Hey, I'm interested in securing some state funds to get your community online. Is that of interest to you?" Which does not happen with federal programs, that's not a requirement. And those providers are assessed and are awarded points, they're incentivized to do that through some of these state programs. The final pieces are accountability and enforcement measures. The successful state programs are those that have those accountability measures in place, that are doing that grant oversight, that grant management to ensure not only are communities getting what they've been promised but is the public sector getting what they have also been promised? How is the public's money actually being invested? I mean, I think that this is one of the things that frustrates me the most about this conversation, is that we've invested billions and billions and billions of dollars in broadband infrastructure and internet infrastructure, and we're still trying to address this problem. So that accountability is really important. So as you think about building a state program, I think this came from a staffer from the New Jersey State Senate, those are the kinds of things that you should be considering. How do you facilitate competitive grant processes? Meaningful challenge processes? How do you set high standards? And how do you factor in what your local needs are, as you think about how to really assess where and how you want to target funds? Francella, I'll turn it over to you, though, for best practices in local. OCHILLO:  I think the piece that you just said about how do you evaluate whether or not people kept their promises, that's one of the most serious problems not only at a federal level, but also at a local level. A lot of the times we talk to people who are either, maybe they're new to mayoral office, they're on the city council but they can't all agree and it's very difficult to evaluate whether or not--"hold on a second, did somebody in the previous administration? They made this deal and they made a deal for fifty years. So now we're going to check to see if they're doing what they said they were going to do in year thirty-one." And so it makes it very difficult when you have these legacy agreements that essentially are as long as a lifetime for people to actually enforce things. So I think it's important for people to set realistic guidelines where they're saying, "We're going to offer you X and evaluate at this date," and decide that before the money goes out the door. Because if you negotiate something, if you put out an RFP process, you're saying, "Look, we're going to open up this application portal," you can't go back and say, "Oh, by the way, you're going to need to show us that you're keeping your promises midway through." So I think it's most important to actually outline that in the parameters of the original application. DE WIT:  I think what we are both getting at are that the public sector has a stake here, communities have a stake here. We'd have a stake either way because it's a business that's providing services in your community but when they're receiving public funds, you bet you have a stake. And I'm speaking for myself here, assuming Francella's with me, but there are some very good internet service providers who are excellent partners to their communities. Who view themselves as carriers of last resort, who are in it to make sure that their neighbors, that their families, that their friends, that their local businesses are online and have connections that they need to help their communities survive. Because that's what we're talking about here, it's community survival now. And so when we're talking about making sure that the public sector has a stake in this. That it's reclaiming that seat at the negotiation table, that's what we're talking about. And that's not an irrational ask. To do as Francella said, that if public funds are being offered, it is reasonable to say, "This is what we expect to get for those public funds. You don't have to accept them but this is what we expect to get from that." And I think that that has been what has been missing from this conversation. It's also about figuring out what is realistic, but that's really where those relationships, those open conversations are really important to figure out what's realistic. Also balancing, I think, realistic with the aspirational because sometimes people say, "Well, that's not realistic." You're like, "Well, is it? Isn't it, though? You know, we're saying that today in 2021 that, yes, we need speeds in homes that are faster than 25/3 when this network isn't going to be built for two or three years? Like this connection is already too slow." But it is important to just remember that you have a seat at the table. It's about figuring out how you want to claim that seat and how you want to exercise your authority as public leaders. FASKIANOS:  I'm going to go next to Carrie Warren-Gully, who's raised her hand. Q:  Hi there. My name is Carrie Warren-Gully and I'm a county commissioner in Arapahoe County, Colorado. And I have two questions for you. One is, we have a county that has unincorporated Arapahoe County, of which we're responsible for helping and maintaining and providing services to, but then we have eleven different cities that are also a part of our county. So I'm wondering if you have any examples of how counties and cities are working together so you don't have one city that has amazing service and another city that doesn't, and that is a county there to provide some kind of backup or help in doing that? The second question I have for you is, and I've seen it in the chat here too, we are getting money right now from the American Rescue Plan and some of that money can go towards infrastructure and broadband. But I'm wondering if there's something out there that kind of tells us what are all the different pots of money? Because all of this money is, every dollar is so valuable to us, and we could spend it on a million different things. So should we be spending some of this money on this project? Or is there other money out there that we really should be utilizing instead of spending these valuable American Rescue Act monies on broadband? Thank you. This is absolutely fascinating, thank you. OCHILLO: Carrie you asked some really good questions. DE WIT: Excellent questions. OCHILLO: I want to make sure that I just get to really quickly a couple of things. I'm going to drop some things in the chat just to give you a list of funding resources. I always encourage people to look beyond the FCC. There is lots of money in lots of unexpected places. You might need to partner with USDA, the other partner might be with Department of Education, somebody might need to partner with local philanthropy. There are lots of different places that we need to actually tap into partnerships. I also want to encourage people to make sure you are treating businesses as residents. And if you are asking residents to buy into your plan, then you need to ask the businesses in those communities to say, "What are you bringing to the table? We're asking them to donate manpower, what can you bring?" So this is a potluck, and we need everybody. And so I think that it's really important for us to make sure that we are tapping into those resources. Unincorporated areas have unusual challenges, because a lot of the times they don't necessarily have the same agency that an organized city or county would have. I think of when you ask for a good example of cities and counties working together, I think of Lexington County, it's a mixed government in Kentucky. I also think of some places in New York that are trying to figure it out. I think that depending on what are the circumstances you're fighting against, sometimes that's part of what leads me to ask questions about the match. But one of the great things that you have in the state of Colorado, is that you have one of the best state broadband offices in the country and I don't say that lightly. I say that because I have rarely run into an office that gives granular instructions on how to apply for grants, that actually tells you this is the money that's available, and these are the application dates. And I think that there's a willingness to help and an expertise in that office that really only exists in about a handful of states across the country. So I'm going to drop some notes in about funding. But I just wanted to make sure I got to that. DE WIT: I think the other thing that we've been watching. I completely agree with Francella, look at other options outside the FCC. Honestly, it's an onerous application process for many of these programs to begin with. But, I shared a resource from NTIA, National Telecommunications and Information Administration, they just released an update to their federal funding guide. I flagged that because what that details are other resources that can be applied in different ways. You really are going to be looking at sort of like a puzzle, a jigsaw puzzle, of sources to help you get through this entire broadband process. So starting with planning, feasibility studies, you look at an entity like the Economic Development Administration, which has planning funds available. There are other sources in there that you may already be aware of, but I would echo Francella's encouraged to reach out to the Colorado Broadband Office and happy to get contact information for you there, if that would be useful. With respect to the city/county collaboration, that is such a great question and a very interesting one. Yes, just very interesting. One thing that we are looking at and watching at Pew is how are states facilitating whether it's city/county collaboration or just collaboration and creating essentially economies of scale in local opportunities for network connectivity. One of them is looking at laws in Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine that enable localities to form communications union districts. So essentially utilities districts for the provision of broadband, West Virginia has a law that allows localities to form cooperatives for broadband service. We're also in the process right now of debating passing a law that will allow counties to build broadband infrastructure in the same way that they would build roads and then work with internet service providers in order to actually provide service over that network and operate that network. So there are several examples out there about how states are trying to facilitate this. That is where some county and city collaboration does come into it, but no Francella is right, I think the immediate one that springs to mind is the example in Kentucky. FASKIANOS: Right. So I'm going to go next to Linda Redman, who's in Washington state, who talks about supposedly having good access to broadband in our city of 10,000. But the main impediment for our families trying to work and attend school from home is the cost. As you mentioned, it's $120 per month for anything approaching gig speed. Others that can afford those speeds can move here and continue to work, those that can't have to drive to work. So what type of funding is there? Do cities have access to help with that disparity? OCHILLO: I think I'll just jump in here. I think that that's one of those things that people have to approach with the digital equity lens. That's one of those questions where we decide that, "you know what, not everybody needs help but this part of the city really does need help." And where cities have to come together and you might already have certain understandings, certain agreements. I think in the wake of COVID there are a lot of cities that we're seeing digital equity for the first time. There were some that actually were thinking about, "what do we need to do to make sure that the people who need a little bit more support are able to get that?" And sometimes that means partnering with philanthropy, sometimes it means asking the philanthropic arm of business residents to do more. Where you can actually hand out, whether it's to say that it's almost like an Emergency Broadband Benefit that's happening at the local level. When essentially people are saying, "Hey, we're going to help at least offset the cost of broadband." And I thought it was really smart how in San Antonio, I remember, they use CARES Act funding to actually help cover broadband bills, just like they did for rental assistance and utilities. That type of forward thinking, where we're acknowledging not everyone in the city is going to be able to be treated the same on this issue but the truth is that some people need a little extra help. And I want to make sure that I point out, highlight a statistic that helps give people color on why. When I think about nationwide when people say, "We don't have a digital equity problem, it doesn't really matter. It's not really our issue." I think a lot of the times when we're thinking about who's getting locked out and what it's going to cost us. It costs us money when 20/30/40 percent of residents in your area do not have connectivity. And to give you statistics from Deutsche Foundation, which is a bank that has nothing to do with broadband, but started to ask questions about what does connectivity have to do with workforce development. And they determined that 76 percent of Blacks and 62 percent of Hispanics could get shut out or be underprepared for 86 percent of the jobs nationwide by 2045. What does that mean for us? That means that whether you're connected or you're not connected, we all share the cost because we lose in workforce development, we lose in their creativity and innovation, we lose their imagination, we lose their contributions to our cities, we lose in so many different places. So I want to make sure that when we're thinking about maybe coming up with these policy prescriptions that seem like, "well, is it fair that we're giving a little bit more to somebody who needs help?" That's just what that is. And sometimes just as a city, or even as a county, or as a state, we have to decide that sometimes some people need a little bit more support to participate. FASKIANOS: Kathryn, do you want to add on? DE WIT: I was just going to say what Francella said. Plus one to that. But also, if you're in Washington state, call your broadband office. Russ Elliot's team there. I know, Russ is great. They're looking at really this full scope of the digital divide and trying to use the arm of the public in order to address these challenges. The state also has technical assistance teams in place that can help you come up with a plan to actually address that. Exactly what Francella was just outlining. So if you haven't reached out to your state office yet, I would encourage you to do that. FASKIANOS: Yeah, just to follow on. The discount offered by EBB is not enough. This is Linda Redman wrote again. What other programs are available to ensure equitable access? And I think it goes back to what you were talking about, Francella, about the divide that we're going to see by, I think you said, 2045. OCHILLO: Right. And so there are no other federal programs that provide that funding. So I just want to be clear, the Emergency Broadband Benefit is the first of its kind. The Lifeline Benefit has always been run by the Federal Communications Commission, it's actually implemented by USAC, the nonprofit arm, but essentially that is for low-income households. However, that benefit is only $9.95 a month, it is for wireless broadband or telephone wireline. DE WIT: The other thing with the Emergency Broadband Benefit, and Francella brought this up earlier, about making sure that you're asking questions of the providers. One, confirm that providers in your area are participating in it. But as you ask them those questions, what speeds do they offer? Because the EBB program does not require that providers offer or receive this benefit--they don't have to provide broadband speeds, so those speeds that they are offering can be less than 25/3. So it's important to also gauge that question as well. FASKIANOS: Well, we have so many questions and we are out of time. But we covered a lot of ground. You two have been fantastic. Thank you, Francella Ochillo and Kathryn de Wit for being with us. We are going to collect up all the resources that you've dropped in the chat and I'll come back to you both, if there's anything else you want to include and we will share it with all of you to refer to. They're both on Twitter so you can follow them and I hope that you will because obviously the fountain of information here and resource we just heard how helpful and useful they can be in helping you bridge the digital divide in your communities. So you can follow Francella, @FranOchillo. And Kathryn @km_dewit. You can also follow us, the State Local Officials Initiative on Twitter @CFR_local. And of course come to CFR.org and ForeignAffairs.com for more expertise and analysis on a broad range of issues. So again, we'll send you a link to the recording of this, resources, and if you have ideas of other topics you'd like us to cover, please email us at [email protected]. Thanks for all that you're doing in your communities, too. We know you're working hard and I hope everybody stays well and safe. OCHILLO: Thank you so much. DE WIT: Thank you. (End.)
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