Nord Stream Leaks, Brazil’s Elections, Iranian Protests, and More

Bob McMahon:
In the coming week, the EU response to major gas pipeline leaks, Brazil's presidential election tests its democracy and Iranian anti-government protests continue. It's September 29, 2022 in time for The World Next Week. I'm Bob McMahon.

Jim Lindsay:
And I'm Jim Lindsay. Bob, this past Tuesday, both Nord Stream gas pipelines that carry natural gas from Russia to Europe suddenly suffered leaks. NATO and EU leaders have called the leaks the result of sabotage. Though, they have not named a culprit. Still, many people suspect Russia is behind the attacks. How might the EU and NATO respond to what's just happened, Bob?

Bob McMahon:
Well, they've already responded quite strongly. But, as you say, they've been sort of careful in their wording all but leaving it at Russia's doorstep. And potentially, there'll be more information coming out on that front in the next day or so. On Friday, the UN Security Council is actually supposed to have a discussion on this particular issue at the request of Russia. So Russia has countered by saying, "Oh, contraire, this looks like the work of saboteurs from Ukraine or the United States." And so you can sort of see where this is going.

Jim Lindsay:
What do you make of that argument?

Bob McMahon:
On the one hand, there's a great deal of assumptions here. One of them is among many experts is that Russia has more to gain by messing with these pipelines than the US and Ukraine. And it's a Russian tactic to wrong foot the accusers by turning the tables. And so this is where this is going. But we are at a crucial stage of the war here as well. We're at a crucial stage of energy supplies. And I should note really quickly, Jim, that neither of the two pipelines were actually delivering gas to European markets at the time. Nord Stream 2 has never been active as a conveyor of natural gas. It was held up indefinitely now because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. And the Nord Stream 1 has been suspended by the Russians. There were all sorts of reasons given. But it's been caught up basically in the recriminations between the EU and Russia over EU plans to cap prices on gas and ongoing sanctions against Russia, et cetera, et cetera. So there's a huge amount of backdrop here that raises all sorts of notions about why such a move might benefit Russia. It is worth noting these are the location of these explosions. I think at this point, nobody's arguing that this was some sort of random act but that these are actual explosions at the location somewhat in international waters not far from Sweden or Denmark or even Poland if I see my mapping correctly. So these waters that are near their national waters are now the scene of what looks to be a kilometer in diameter circle of foaming, fizzing, methane gas coming out, very dangerous. Naval ships, I think, from some of the navies have had to reroute shipping so that none of them come near this area because this is a highly flammable gas among other things. It's going to be a mess to clean up. So there's that whole aspect of it.

Jim Lindsay:
Do we have a sense, Bob, of how long it will take to fix the pipeline? I mean, I recall when you had the eruption of Deepwater Horizon in the Gulf of Mexico a number of years ago, which was not sabotage. But it took months before the leak was brought into control.

Bob McMahon:
Yeah. And that was a leak of a different sort, as you mentioned. In both cases, very tricky to get down to the site of the leak. In fact, the leak was initially, "Oh, this was the explosion." And then subsequent leak was detected by seismic meters in Sweden, I believe. But we're looking at the very least weeks before this flow can stop. So even though gas was not being delivered to markets, there was gas in these pipelines. And so that's a real disruptive thing. And also, the timing of this, we're out on the cusp of the widely noted October 1 schedule of the formal heating season in Europe. And all sorts of government efforts were going to kick in to try to help mitigate the cost to consumers and also to energy companies while also belt tightening measures were going to be rolled out in terms of limits on what heating temperatures could be in major businesses and households and things like that. So the timing is very suspicious. It's also occurring while all the other pieces of the chess board are being moved around in the Russian-Ukrainian front. Russia's poised to formally announce its annexation of parts of four territories in Ukraine. Ukraine's mounting another offensive and seemingly has the upper hand in yet another theater of war against Russians who have tried to bring in mobilized troops to change the calculus. It is not going well. And, in fact, many reports say that process is a chaotic one. And so here's a chance if you were in the camp that believes it has to be Russia, here's a chance for Russia to change the script a bit and create a bit further of distress for the European countries to try to disrupt their sense of solidarity on this. I'll add one more thing, Jim, which is that you're getting very concerned publics acting up and protesting in Europe. We just had a major protest in the Czech Republic. In its central square, tens of thousands of people protesting rising prices. And it's not necessarily this united block of people saying, "Down with the sanctions against Russia." But it's more like, "Our leaders are failing us. And basic living standards are under assault." And so there's a great deal of concern on European publics on top of everything else. So here we have this gas pipeline as this very sort of visible sign of the vulnerability of Europe. It's going to be a very important junction about how it sorts this out, how it stops the flow of this gas and the contamination that it causes and the danger that it causes and then how it deals with Russia and how it deals with future energy supplies.

Jim Lindsay:
What options, Bob, do the EU and NATO have in response to the sabotage of these gas pipelines?

Bob McMahon:
Well, so on the one hand, they could further ratchet up the rhetoric or formally identify Russian-based saboteurs. So it's akin to a cyber attack that was sourced to Russia. But one way or another, if they find Russian sources, they then sanction those Russian sources whether it's so-called smart sanctions on individuals believed to be behind this or on the Russian state. There are obviously many layers of sanctions, I think sort of five waves of them since the invasion of Ukraine. Maybe there might be another one if European and NATO officials determine that Russia had mounted this. And so that further raises up the sanctions ante. And it would be actually good to have a scorecard at this point about what hasn't been sanctioned yet. But there actually are quite a few areas that have not been, including in the energy sector. But the other thing is to try to secure the energy sources in a much better way. There were reports that months ago the CIA had warned European officials, I believe German officials, that these pipelines were vulnerable and that they had better start paying attention to protecting them. The fact that these explosions occurred in the place they occurred shows that they were extremely vulnerable. And so I think the weaponization of energy is a real thing right now as we're going into the colder months. And Europe's going to have to take steps to try to protect areas like pipelines and vulnerable conduits for energy.

Jim Lindsay:
Oh. It also raises, Bob, the possibility that we could see sabotage attacks against other kinds of infrastructure. It's not just gas pipelines that go through the North Sea. You have all kinds of cables for internet traffic and the like that can be attacked, which could be quite disruptive. There seems to be a whole series of issues that governments in Europe, in the United States need to worry about.

Bob McMahon:
Yeah. That's a really good point. I would assume those discussions have picked up furiously. To quote the 9/11 report that the 09/11 attacks were partly a result of "failure of imagination," I think there's going to have to be a spike in imagination about what sort of attacks could be happening. Again, cyber is an ongoing front, Jim. And cyber can be used to mess up all sorts of infrastructure. But this was another example. This was potentially some sort of drone operation or some sort of remote operation to get to this point where there were four now, at least at last report, four different areas where explosions took place. It's quite stunning that's happened. And so there does need to be a real scramble to look at a different theater, let's say, of conflict with Russia or with Russian-affiliated saboteurs.

Jim Lindsay:
Well, and I will note that the release of methane is of concern obviously for climate change reasons. Methane is one of the heat-trapping gases responsible for climate change. It's 20 to 80 times more effective than carbon dioxide at trapping heat in the atmosphere. So there's a concern there. Are we drawing conclusions now that perhaps President Putin is going to be even more aggressive, assertive, even more risk prone in his behavior than he has been thus far in 2022?

Bob McMahon:
I think that's something that people who've been watching Putin closely, I mean also Putin since the start of this invasion, have started to make those sorts of conclusions. Certainly, as we saw in his most recent comments related to the mobilization and the annexation votes that have taken place earlier this week, the ready reference to nuclear weapons by Putin, by members of his administration, by members of the state-supported media and so forth is extremely dangerous, extremely alarming. And it's showing that Putin is doubling down. And he's doubling down with whatever means he has even if, as some analysts say, it's still a very remote chance that Russia would ever use any sort of nuclear weapons whether a tactical weapon in theater or some other sort of attack. The fact remains Russia has actually gone after nuclear sites in Ukraine. It has gotten very close to disastrous results in a couple of major nuclear plants in Ukraine. Those plants, Zaporizhzhia being one of them, are still not out of the woods. And so I think we're looking not only at a longer haul in the Ukraine fight, according to what many analysts say, but also a moment of riskiness and daring actions that are really, really dangerous. I would add one more thing, Jim. It also occurs at a time where there was an attempt, a painstaking attempt to try to find some daylight for a diplomatic achievement involving Russia and the West. One of those was the opening up of grain ports. Another one is something that the UN Secretary General Guterres has urged which is the easing up of any sanctions that are affecting the flow of Russian fertilizers. Russia is responsible for a large number of the fertilizers that are distributed throughout the world. The lack of these fertilizers has already been felt as far away as Africa. And as Guterres warned at the United Nations just last week, it could go from a food scarcity problem to a starvation problem next year if these fertilizers are not delivered in a timely way. That involves a bit of good faith or at least some sort of practical engagement. And we're looking at another period of tension and really hostile relations, Jim, that is not going to help that.

Jim Lindsay:
You're exactly right, Bob. And we are facing a very difficult winter, certainly the Ukrainians, the Russians, Europe. But our winter could last quite a long time because this conflict could last quite a long time.

Bob McMahon:
Well, Jim, I'm going to take us to another part of the world where there are also a great deal of tensions building over an upcoming event. And that would be the Brazilian presidential elections. They are taking place this Sunday. It is a very closely watched race between the incumbent, this is the right wing populist, President Jair Bolsonaro, and one of his predecessors, the left-leaning former president known as Lula, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Lula seems to be leading in the polls at last report. Bolsonaro has said he may not accept those results, especially if computers are used to count the vote. And that is the current system for counting. With that all playing out, Jim, what would be at stake with these elections in Brazil?

Jim Lindsay:
Simply put, Bob, the future of Brazil's democracy. I mean, let me give you some general context for what Brazilians are voting for. It is their general elections. They're choosing a president, vice president, National Congress. In terms of selecting presidents, Brazil follows a system similar to France's in which the winning candidate needs to get 50% of the vote. If no presidential candidate gets 50% in Sunday's vote, then the top two vote getters, presumably Bolsonaro and Lula, would meet for runoff election in four weeks on Sunday, October 28. Now, some recent polls in Brazil suggests that Lula might actually pass the 50% mark on Sunday. If that, in fact, happens, we will learn very quickly if Bolsonaro will, in fact, refuse to leave office. The question then will be, what parts if any of the Brazilian government will follow his lead? There's been a lot of speculation that Brazil's military police might throw their support behind Bolsonaro. He has cultivated very close relations with them during his time as president. Now, I should note that Brazil's military police are separate from the country's much smaller federal police force. And contrary to what the phrase "military police" might suggest, Brazil's military police are not part of the military. Rather, they report to state governors. There's also a question of what Brazil's military might do. People might remember that Brazil operated under a military dictatorship from 1964 to 1985. Bolsonaro began his career in the military. And he has placed a lot of military officers in his cabinet. So the question is whether they would follow his lead if he insisted he has really won and the election has been stolen from him.

Bob McMahon:
Jim, is the country divided in the ways that we tend to think of divisions like in the United States or even in some of the European elections we've seen recently? Is it more of like it's the economy that's coming up in this election? Or can you give us a sense of what's the sort of backdrop we should look at?

Jim Lindsay:
Well, Bob, I don't think any country you can reduce their politics to one issue. But certainly, economics play an important role in the Brazilian election. Brazil is experiencing tough economic times partly because of COVID-19 but also because the boom that Brazilian enjoyed from, let's say, 2000 to 2014 was fueled by commodity exports particularly to China. And that boom came to an end. And Brazil is dealing with the consequences of it. Now, Lula was president from 2002 to 2011. And so he was in the Brazilian presidency at a time of great economic promise and growth. There was talk about how Brazil was going to rise up into the ranks of being a major global power given its natural resources, the vibrancy of its people, innovation, what have you. During that time, Lula did a lot to try to address the concerns of poor Brazilians, enacting a number of policies designed to provide income to poorer Brazilians. And so I think in many ways, his appeal to Brazilian voters is that he's going to bring back the good times. It's not at all clear that he'll be able to do so. I mean, what's striking about Lula as a politician is that he is very light on policy details, policy prescriptions, but very heavy on what we might call his authenticity as a Brazilian and as an ordinary Brazilian. Again, he came up through the ranks of Brazil's labor movement. I think he lost one of his pinkies in an accident in a manufacturing plant when he was a young man, again, union organizer. And he basically pits this as a battle between us, the workers, the people who make Brazil great, and them, the elite, which are getting far too much of the benefit. Two other things. Just to note, Lula's election is interesting because it was only two years ago that he was in prison. He had been charged and convicted of corruption charges. Eventually, Brazilian Supreme Court threw out his convictions on the ground that the presiding judge had been biased against him. And this had in some way been a politically motivated effort. But obviously, one piece of baggage he takes with him into the election is the perception that when he was president, many people around him were engaged in corrupt schemes. This is a so-called Operation Car Wash, which is really rocked Brazilian politics over the last decade.

Bob McMahon:
Jim, I take your point about what this means for Brazilian democracy as well. I think it might also be worth noting something that we've been tracking on our website which is the level at which the Brazilian Amazon has been deforested. It was clear by a lot of the data that's out there that there was a slowing down of the deforestation under Lulu's presidency where he worked vigorously to try to provide ways of sustainably using the Amazon while not wholesale deforesting it. Bolsonaro came in with a different mindset, by many accounts was exploitation and clearing the land for farmers and cattle people and so forth. And you just look at the satellite imagery which we're about to publish I think later today, Jim, on our updated interactive. Why is that important? It's not only important for Brazil. It's actually part of what they call the global lungs of the planet. And it is really important that Brazil not be allowed to cross what's known as a tipping point, meaning a point of no return, and that the forest become a contributor to carbon as opposed to a sink that withholds carbon from the atmosphere.

Jim Lindsay:
You're exactly right, Bob. There is a lot at stake not just for Brazilians in this election but for the rest of humanity as well. And the fascinating thing about the Amazon and its function in the global climate is that its size and its health affects not just what's happening in Brazil or in neighboring countries but has much broader effects. And there's some concern that if you get to that tipping point, one consequence will be that it will really change rainfall patterns across a very large part of the globe. And obviously, if you're not getting rain or used to getting rain, that can create significant problems. Just one last thing to flag on the Brazilian presidential election, Bob, is that assuming Lula is elected president, whether on Sunday or in a runoff election at the end of the month, his election would be part of this trend in Latin America of moving left, of electing leftist populous leaders. We've seen that in Mexico, Argentina, Chile, Columbia, in Peru. And it stands out because, as we've discussed quite often, the trend we're seeing in Europe is in the opposite direction, which is the election of right wing populace. We talked about Sweden. We had the recent election in Italy. I'll leave it to the political scientist in the audience to explain why that's the case.

Bob McMahon:
It's also worth noting that the European elections we talked about recently, it was the right wing populace were the outsiders coming in upsetting the incumbents. And this case, you have an incumbent right wing populace. So that'll be very interesting to watch.

Jim Lindsay:
Bob, let's shift to the Middle East. Over the past few weeks, Iranians have erupted in protest over the death of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Kurdish Iranian woman who died in the custody of the morality police. Her crime, she allegedly wore her headscarf improperly. The Iranian government has unleashed a series of brutal crackdown on protestors. But protestors have also pushed back against the police. Where is Iran headed, Bob?

Bob McMahon:
That is a crucial question, Jim. And it's important not to either judge too much from the past or make too many assumptions about what we're seeing now, I would say. But it is worth pointing out a few things. And one is just the staying power of these protests, which are now almost two weeks old, and that the death of Amini really lit a match on society where there are many grievances. One area in particular that had been festering, which is a treatment of women, and this attempt to reinforce more vigorously the so-called hijab rule about wearing your hijab properly and public decorum of women and so forth. This is a hardline government very much in lockstep with the supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei. One of their moves the past several months was to rededicate themselves to enforcing these such laws and using the morality police. And so you now have protests ongoing. And I just checked reports recently. It's very hard to follow the typical pattern of such protests because there has been an internet lockdown in Iran. However, there continue to be some social media platforms that are disseminating information. And according to those and according to the filters that disseminate those further, such as U.S.-funded broadcasters, the BBC and so forth, there are at least six or seven other cities where protests were ongoing outside of Tehran. And this is despite, as you said, Jim, a really harsh government crackdown. Conservative estimates of 70 to 80 people killed in those crackdowns. Many of them protestors. Some by indiscriminate firing of weapons by security forces. I think it's a measure of the concern on the government side. One side development that occurred this past week, Jim, which was a strong effort by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps to attack Iranian Kurdish offices in exile in neighboring Iraq, so Iraqi Kurdistan. They have decided to use a combination of weapons, including drones, to attack political offices of banned Iranian Kurdish parties. And the estimates are of 13 killed, dozens wounded and really a wake up call for both Iranian dissidents as well as Iraqi officials. Iraqi officials are very concerned about this. But also, Iranian officials made no secret to the fact that they saw Kurdish activism as partly behind -- or at least they're alleging Kurdish activism behind these vehemence of these protests. Because Mahsa Amini was Kurdish, her province in northwestern Iran was where the initial protests were said to have started. They want to send a very strong message that they're going to go after these elements. They also wanted to storyline that these are protests that are fomented by outside forces, that Iranians themselves are being instigated to do this. This is not coming from their own sense of appropriate grievance. Iranians themselves would say different in many cases. But the government holds a lot of levers. They've survived such protests before. So I don't want to overestimate this. But at the same time, there is a bigger element at play here. And you might have to see a little bit of a government come-down whether it's the walking back from the enforcement of these morality laws or something similar. Perhaps, that's what they'll do.

Jim Lindsay:
Any response from the Biden administration, Bob? Obviously, the administration has been trying to revive the Iran nuclear deal that looks to be a failed bid. Is the administration likely to be much more critical publicly of the government in Tehran?

Bob McMahon:
Yes. I think we've seen that already, Jim. What was interesting was, so the protests were really starting to take off as the UN General Assembly high-level debate was kicking off last week. And so you had in succession the Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi speaking and actually referencing the protest, but also blaming outside forces, but also calling out Western sources as hypocrites for pointing their finger at Iran while they were allowing their own abuses to take place. But U.S. officials and later President Biden also spoke out against Iran's policies towards women. The U.S. Treasury Department actually came out and sanctioned the morality police. I think you're starting to see more and more calls for the U.S. to bundle together issues in its discussions with the Iranians that go beyond just its nuclear program, which is something the US has resisted pretty heavily in the past. But I think you're starting to see more and more calls for -- it has to be more of a total set of issues that the U.S. discusses with Iran. That's for all sorts of other reasons, Jim. And, as you indicated, these Iran nuclear talks just seem to be spinning in place and not going anywhere.

Jim Lindsay:
We'll see whether the regime in Iran is able to suppress the protests or whether what we're witnessing today builds up to something bigger that could lead to a replacement of that regime.

Bob McMahon:
Yeah. And one other thing I'd mention is that the supreme leader, who I referenced, is reported again to be in frail health. There's not really a clear sense of who would be in line to succeed him. That's also raising a lot of concern. And some of those types of issues are even coming up during the protest. So it's all coming at a time of seeming vulnerability for their regime.

Jim Lindsay:
And it's important to keep in mind that a majority of Iranians were born after the revolution took place. So they don't know what life was like before the revolution and may not share many of the views in context of the ruling elite.

Bob McMahon:
And those ruling elite are getting, let's say, firmly into the geriatric frame. Ayatollah is in his eighties. Many other senior leaders are in their seventies and eighties. So you're absolutely right, Jim. It's a major generational divide. But, Jim, we've talked our way into the audience figure of the week section of the podcast. This week, by the way, that audience figure was determined through a poll on CFR's Instagram account rather than our Twitter account. Our audience this week selected as the figure 2000 tons, as in 2000 tons of food aid lost in Haiti. So, Jim, could you shed a little light on what this refers to?

Jim Lindsay:
Bob, what the story refers to is the fact that over the past two weeks, some 2000 tons of food aid with an estimated value of around $6 million has been stolen from the World Food Program in Haiti. Or to put it somewhat differently, the amount of food stolen is enough to feed some 200,000 Haitians for a month. But obviously, the problems in Haiti go well beyond that. In recent weeks, criminal gangs have surrounded the country's main fuel terminal and have dug trenches to prevent fuel distribution trucks from approaching the facility. There also been reports that gangs have been blocking roads across the country, upending day-to-day activities across Haiti and complicating efforts by aid agencies to distribute food to the country's poorest people. And this takes place in the broader context of growing instability in Haiti. As you recall, back in July of 2021, Haitian president Jovenel Moïse was assassinated. What that has triggered is a further fragmentation of Haiti's politics. And we've seen the rise of criminal gangs that have been particularly well armed and threatening the lives of individuals. I'll note that in July, the UN Security Council adopted a resolution asking UN member states to ban the transfer of small arms to Haitian gangs. But it stopped short of agreeing to China's demand to find some way to enforce the embargo. But Haiti is a country that has had a very tragic history. It has gone through some terrible experiences. Many people recall the earthquake that struck, I think, in 2010. And now it looks like Haiti once again is headed into a downward spiral.

Bob McMahon:
Yeah. And it's hard to fathom Haiti getting much worse. But it could be entering into a really new chapter as a failed state. I mean, we should just call it that. When you have reports of gangs controlling huge swaths of the country, for example, and things like this heist of food aid, international relief officials are facing a great deal of danger in trying to bring basic aid. And security has always been peacekeeping and otherwise has always been a fraught venture in Haiti as well. The UN itself was found guilty of misbehavior, including helping to spread cholera in Haiti after the earthquake in 2010, for instance. And so it's like, what are the answers to helping Haiti there? There has to be a renewed effort. And it's difficult. And it's got to come from the hemisphere as well because Haiti's problems are going to be shared, I think, by the hemisphere.

Jim Lindsay:
But I will also note that if you go across the hemisphere, most countries are focused on their own problems. And there's a real question of, how can they actually help Haiti as opposed to making issues even worse? One thing that does stand out to me as I read stories about Haiti is the tremendous bravery of people who work for aid programs in Haiti. They are putting themselves at great risk given basically a dissolution of security in any sort of normal order. And it's quite impressive in terms of their dedication to wanting to help others.

Bob McMahon:
Completely agree. And I would also just add to that another thing I hear from people who travel frequently to Haiti is just the enormous resilience of the Haitian people and their spirit through all the horribleness. They have been compared a lot to Afghans in terms of their ability to endure hardship. Let's just hope they don't have to endure the next levels that might be coming.

Jim Lindsay:
Fully agreed, Bob.

Bob McMahon:
Well, that's our look at The World Next Week. Here are some other stories to keep an eye on. Canada marks its National Day for Truth and Reconciliation to remember the mistreatment of Indigenous Children. Elections are held in Latvia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Kuwait. And Thailand's Constitutional Court rules on whether Prime Minister Prayut Chan-ocha can run beyond his term limits.

Jim Lindsay:
Please subscribe to The World Next Week on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. And leave us a review while you're at it. We appreciate the feedback. Please note that opinions expressed on The World Next Week are solely those of the hosts or our guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy. Today's program was produced by Ester Fang with Senior Podcast Producer Gabrielle Sierra. Ester also edited this episode. Thank you, Ester. Special thanks go up to Sinet Adous and Elia Ching for their research assistance. Our theme music is provided by Miguel Herrero and licensed under Creative Commons. This is Jim Lindsay saying, so long.

Bob McMahon:
And this is Bob McMahon saying, goodbye. And be careful out there.