CFR Survey Identifies the Top Global Concerns for 2024

For the first time in its sixteen-year history, the Council on Foreign Relations’ (CFR) annual Preventive Priorities Survey (PPS) found that the leading concern for foreign policy experts is the possibility of domestic terrorism and acts of political violence in the United States, particularly around the 2024 presidential election. 

Experts are also concerned about an escalation of the Israel-Hamas war into a wider regional conflict, and a surge of migration to the southwest U.S. border caused by criminal violence, corruption, and economic hardship in Central America and Mexico.

Conducted by CFR’s Center for Preventive Action (CPA) every November, the survey asks foreign policy experts to evaluate thirty ongoing or potential violent conflicts based on their likelihood of occurring or escalating this year, as well as their possible impact on U.S. interests.

The surveyed experts also warn that the risk of a U.S. military confrontation with China or Russia is growing.

“The foreign terrorist threat to the U.S. homeland has receded significantly, but other concerns have emerged,” said Paul B. Stares, CPA director and General John W. Vessey senior fellow for conflict prevention. “These include the growing risk of armed conflict with Russia, especially since the war in Ukraine began in 2022, as well as with China, as a result of rising tensions across the Taiwan Strait and in the South China Sea. The trend toward less armed conflict around the world since the end of the Cold War is now moving in the opposite direction.”

In prior years, only overseas or foreign-sourced risks to U.S. interests were evaluated in the PPS. However, during the initial public solicitation of contingencies for the 2024 PPS, respondents expressed a high level of concern about the potential for politically motivated violence in the United States, especially surrounding the upcoming presidential election. 

View the full results and prior surveys. 

To learn more or to request an interview, please contact the Global Communications and Media Relations team at 212.434.9888 or [email protected]. 

The Preventive Priorities Survey was made possible by a generous grant from Carnegie Corporation of New York. 

CFR’s Center for Preventive Action seeks to help prevent, defuse, or resolve deadly conflicts around the world and to expand the body of knowledge on conflict prevention. Follow CPA on X @CFR CPA.