Libya

LONDON – In 2011, shortly after Hosni Mubarak was forced to step down as Egypt’s president, protests erupted in eastern Libya. A few months later Muammar al-Qaddafi’s own decades-long rule came to an end. Although each country took a different path toward revolution, developments in Cairo influenced events in Tripoli. Similarly, the ripple effects from Egypt’s summer of upheaval are already rumbling through Libya, with secularists feeling their oats and Islamists feeling pinched. At the very least, the diverse and fractious armed groups that operate throughout Libya are gripping their guns a bit more tightly. The July 3 ouster of Mohammed Morsi and subsequent crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood by Egyptian security forces was cheered by anti-Brotherhood protesters in a handful of Libyan cities. Although Libya has its own chapter of the Muslim Brotherhood—as well as an ideologically aligned political organization, the Justice and Construction Party—the country is also home to a number of anti-Islamist and anti-Brotherhood groups. The Egyptian coup has emboldened these groups, who see the Brotherhood as a foreign entity whose priority is regional dominance rather than the national interest. Of course, this condition is not unique to the Brotherhood; many of Libya’s factions put their own interests ahead of the state. Yet the common critique of the Brotherhood is more pointed, it contends that the group clandestinely aspires to Islamize society and that it threatens to sully Islam by dragging it into the messiness of day-to-day politics. Yet the Muslim Brotherhood is not the only Islamist group with influence in Libya. Others include ultraconservative Salafists, former domestic and transnational jihadists, and extremists who continue to use violence against their political opponents. Many of these groups have always harbored skepticism of democratic rule, viewing it as a Western import. Following Qaddafi’s death in 2011, civil society groups and religious leaders in Libya put significant effort into promoting the virtues of democracy to hardline Islamist groups. They argued that democracy could bring about political systems inspired by Islamic principles – such as those enshrined in Sharia, the system that hardline Islamists would like to see implemented in full. They also argued that democracy would enable Islamists to achieve justice against those individuals and networks that had been complicit in the violent repression of Islamism under Gaddafi. The electoral success of Brotherhood-affiliated parties and ultraconservative Salafist groups in Tunisia and Egypt lent credence to these claims. Libya’s Salafists sought advice from their Egyptian counterparts about their own experiences of democracy. Morsi’s removal has dealt a blow to such arguments, and may have spoiled Islamist groups’ already limited appetite for democracy in Libya. Salafist sheikhs and leading members of the Brotherhood-linked Justice and Construction Party have publicly acknowledged that recent events in Egypt have damaged the credibility of democracy in Libya. Libya’s influential but divisive Grand Mufti, Sadek al-Gharyani, who is associated with the Salafist al-Asala party, compared Morsi’s removal by the military to Qaddafi’s 1969 coup against King Idriss. How Libya’s Islamist groups react remains to be seen, but the responses could be as varied as the groups themselves. Some are likely to boycott future elections – in the way that some threatened to boycott national elections in July 2012 – and act to undermine elected institutions. However, the impact of these actions on Libya’s transition is likely to remain limited. Transparent political processes and continued engagement by civil society groups may encourage Islamists to embrace Libya’s nascent democracy; the reintegration of Egypt’s Brotherhood and the continued involvement of Salafist parties in Egyptian politics would also be positive indicators in this regard. Nevertheless, there is probably a radical fringe that will refuse to engage in Libya’s democratic process and that will use violence to undermine it. Indeed, the implications of the Egyptian coup for Libya’s security environment are potentially profound. Libya remains home to a broad array of armed groups with varying degrees of involvement with the state, and a broad range of political, religious, tribal and ethnic affiliations. Although none of these groups should be regarded as the military wing of the Muslim Brotherhood, many have Islamist beliefs and some see their weapons as a means of ensuring the creation of an Islamist political system. Armed groups – Islamist and otherwise – have refused to give up their weapons and resisted integration with the state security institutions that existed under Qaddafi. The militias that were formed in opposition to the former regime regard Qaddafi-era security institutions as corrupt, associated with violent persecution and – in the case of armed Islamist groups – antithetical to their beliefs. The assassinations of Qaddafi-era security officials over the past year in the northeastern city of Benghazi are probably a byproduct of this. Morsi’s removal by the Egyptian military – an institution that many Libyans view as a remnant of the regime of another ousted Egyptian president, Hosni Mubarak – has compounded these perceptions. Some Islamist groups will see the retention of arms and the potential use of violence as the only viable means of achieving their political goals. This in turn will delay the reconstitution of Libya’s state security forces and could well lead to further violence between the country’s armed groups. Henry Smith is a senior analyst for the Middle East and North Africa with Control Risks, a global risk consultancy. He is also a contributing author of a new book, The 2011 Libyan Uprisings and the Struggle for the Post-Qadhafi Future.

Amr Shalakany analyzes the Egyptian July 8 constitutional declaration, arguing it establishes a de facto state of emergency in Egypt. In the wake of last week’s political assassination in Tunisia, Andrew Lebovich and Aaron Y. Zelin examine links between the alleged assassin and terrorist groups in North Africa. Tarek Megerisi and Michael Meyer-Resende emphasize the necessity of a constitutional consensus in Libya to avoid the political turmoil unfolding in Egypt and Tunisia.

Below is a guest post by Andrew Reddie, research associate in the International Institutions and Global Governance program. The UN Charter advises that “the Security Council shall, where appropriate, utilize such regional arrangements or agencies for enforcement action under its authority.” The degree to which regional cooperation represents a sine qua non for international action was made abundantly clear in the recent uprising against Muammar al-Qaddafi, as the Arab League sanctioned a no-fly zone over Libya, followed promptly by UN Security Council Resolution 1973. But are regional organizations the future of humanitarian intervention? The answer is complicated. While regional organizations have risen to the fore in recent decades, situations such as the current conflict in Syria appear to be far beyond the capabilities of their respective regional organizations. It is worth reflecting upon the role of regional organizations in past interventions and contemplating their limits, before viewing them as a panacea. The logic embedded in Chapter VIII of the UN Charter, that regional authorities have more at stake in conflicts that are closer to home, is sound; as is the principle that regional players better understand the context of fighting, grievances, and potential pathways to peace. These advantages, however, must be weighed against the potential for states to take advantage of the plight of their neighbors and the varying capabilities of the regional organizations that could be called upon to act in the event of humanitarian crises. Historically, neighboring states have become involved in conflicts that threaten regional instability or spillover. One of the most successful examples of regional, humanitarian intervention took place in the 1990s within Liberia and Sierra Leone, following repeated coups and civil wars in both countries linked to Charles Taylor’s administration of Liberia and the rise of the Revolutionary United Front. The intervention in Sierra Leone—which took place after a ceasefire was brokered and then broken—was led by ECOMOG, the armed monitoring group of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), with the help of British troops in Operation Palliser, and eventually led to elections in the country. The fact that this intervention secured a UN mission that was under grave threat, and solidified a peace in such a way that Sierra Leone has eventually returned to peace, suggested that regional participation could confer legitimacy upon humanitarian interventions. In the years that followed, ECOWAS embarked upon subsequent interventions in the Ivory Coast, Guinea-Bissau, and Guinea on the grounds of “collective self-defense,” and not always with Security Council approval. The African Union and the South African Development Community also began to play a role in furnishing peacekeeping forces in Lesotho, Burundi, Sudan, Somalia, and the Comoros. Importantly, these interventions have been characterized as legitimate by individual states in the region. This has been important given the skepticism regarding the role of international forces in recent humanitarian interventions by both states and their populations. However the weaknesses associated with African Union-led interventions to date have stemmed primarily from their reliance upon states or organizations for both fiduciary support and human capital—for instance, in Somalia, the African Union’s AMISOM was approved by the UN and received substantial funding from the European Union. As well as funding operations in other regions, the EU was also involved in its own peace operations in Europe and fundamentally altered geopolitics in the Balkans following conflict in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo. EU involvement in the peacekeeping and post-conflict reconstruction of Kosovo, in particular, offers an example of the degree to which a regional organization confers technical assistance and resources that reshape domestic politics and enforce peace. In the past, armed interventions on the basis of humanitarian imperatives have also organically developed among neighboring states rather than being fostered by a regional organization. The best example of this phenomenon is provided by the Regional Assistance Mission to the Solomon Islands (RAMSI) that involved Australia, New Zealand, Fiji, and five other Pacific Island states. Intervening in response to increased violence and unrest caused by land-claim disputes in 2003, these neighboring states helped restore law and order and, in the years following, provided peacekeeping and police forces to enforce peace and support elections in 2006. RAMSI is expected to be dissolved in September 2013, after a decade in the country. The Arab League, Organization of American States, and Association of Southeast Asian Nations, for their part, have had little to no interest in intervening in the sovereign states that comprise their respective memberships. These organizations remain primarily interested in external relations between states and harmonizing standards and regulations that reduce transaction costs and ensure sustained cooperation. The role that institutional or geopolitical weakness plays in privileging sovereignty over humanitarian norms also serves to strengthen the notion that regional organizations are not designed to perform humanitarian intervention and instead should be focused on other issues. In Syria, the reluctance of the Arab League to choose sides in the civil war has severely detracted from its ability to influence the conflict. Moreover, the Arab League, unlike the African Union, has no standby force to call upon for peacekeeping should it have decided to intervene earlier in the conflict. The geopolitical realities in the region also overshadow any regional organization’s (whether the Arab League or the Gulf Cooperation Council) ability to serve as an arbiter. Consequently, the Arab League has been limited to calling for peace talks and supporting the halting progress of the UN-Arab League envoy, Lakhdar Brahimi. The simple conclusion from this narrative is that regional organizations have become increasingly important players in humanitarian interventions over the past two decades. But while regional organizations have considerable value in providing context-specific intervention strategies, the continuing debates concerning sovereignty and the appropriateness of regional intervention, alongside institutional weakness, can severely limit their effectiveness. Furthermore, international organizations and states continue to play key roles in mandating, legitimating, and providing resources for peacekeeping missions. Regional organizations, then, do not, by themselves, represent the future of humanitarian intervention.

Significant Developments Syria. Israel publicly warned Syrian president Bashar Assad to stop transferring advanced weapons to Hezbollah yesterday. In an unusual move, a senior Israeli official contacted the New York Times on Wednesday and was then quoted by the paper saying that “Israel is determined to continue to prevent the transfer of advanced weapons to Hezbollah,” arguing that such a move would destabilize the region. The Israeli official warned further: “If Syrian president Assad reacts by attacking Israel, or tries to strike Israel through his terrorist proxies, he will risk forfeiting his regime, for Israel will retaliate.” Meanwhile, the United Nations General Assembly passed a nonbinding resolution yesterday condemning Syrian authorities and calling for a “political transition” to end the violence in Syria. The resolution passed by a vote of 107-12 with 59 abstentions, less than the 133 votes a similar resolution received last August. In introducing the debate, Vuk Jeremic, president of the General Assembly, raised the official UN death toll to more than eighty thousand people. Iran. European foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton met Iranian envoy and presidential candidate Saeed Jalili in Istanbul last night. Ashton called the dinner meeting “useful” but announced no plans for a new round of negotiations. Earlier in the day, a senior UN official announced that talks between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency had failed to break ground on resuming an investigation into “possible military dimensions” of Iran’s nuclear program. Meanwhile two big-name candidates registered as candidates for Iran’s presidential elections just before the deadline on Saturday: former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei, who is close to President Ahmadinejad. Turkey-Syria. The Turkish government blamed Syria earlier in the week for two car bomb explosions that killed at least forty-six people in Reyhanli, a border town in Turkey. It was one of the deadliest terror attacks on Turkish soil. Officials in Turkey announced that they had arrested nine people on Sunday; all the detainees were Turkish citizens and a number of them confessed to links to Syrian intelligence services. U.S. Foreign Policy Talking Syria. President Barack Obama met with Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the White House today to discuss Syria. In a joint press conference, Obama said that there is no “magic formula” for the situation in Syria. Earlier in the week, the president hosted British prime minister David Cameron who visited the White House to discuss Syria and the upcoming G8. Both leaders emphasized, in press conference remarks, the urgency of ending the fighting in Syria; Cameron noted that “Syria’s history is being written in the blood of her people, and it is happening on our watch.” Acknowledging the difficulty of finding a diplomatic solution, Obama said that “It’s going to be challenging, but it’s worth the effort.” Meanwhile, Secretary of State John Kerry sounded cautiously optimistic about plans for an international peace conference to bring together figures from the Syrian opposition and regime. At a press conference in Stockholm on Tuesday, Kerry said that “progress is being made” and the Syrian government had given names of officials who would attend to Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Egypt. Gaza’s interior ministry announced a state of alert along its border with Egypt after unidentified gunmen abducted seven Egyptian security officers in the Sinai Peninsula early today. The seven security personnel were in taxis outside of the city of El Arish when masked gunmen ambushed them. Egyptian security officials said that they had been in contact with the kidnappers and that the abduction may have been related to anger over claims that an imprisoned militant had been tortured. Libya. Libyan officials claimed that a bomb blast in Benghazi that killed three people on Monday could have been an accident instead of a deliberate car bombing. Libyan interior minister Ashur Shwayel said that “all signs point to an accidental explosion.” The car was transporting explosives used to make anti-tank mines when it exploded outside of a hospital. Yemen. Three kidnapped Red Cross employees were released yesterday by Yemeni tribesmen in the southern province of Abyan. The three men were abducted on Monday. Two Egyptian technicians who had been abducted last week by the same tribe were also released. Iraq. Bombings in Baghdad and attacks in northern Iraq killed at least seventeen people today, in the latest surge of violence in the past several weeks. More than thirty-five people were killed yesterday as a result of bombings in Baghdad and Kirkuk that seemingly targeted Iraq’s Shiite population. Bahrain. A court in Bahrain sentenced six people to jail for insulting King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa on Twitter. The six were convicted for the “misuse of freedom of expression.” One of those convicted was Mahdi al-Basri, who did not send any tweets, but served as a lawyer for a community account that wrote the offending tweets. This Week in History This week marks the thirtieth anniversary of a short-lived U.S.-mediated Lebanese-Israeli peace agreement. On May 17, 1983, Lebanon and Israel signed a peace accord ending the state of war between the two countries since the 1948 Arab-Israeli war. The 1983 agreement, coming on the heels of Israel’s invasion of Lebanon the previous year, called for a phased Israeli withdrawal from the country and was a product of negotiations held over thirty-five sessions between December 1982 and May 1983. Israel’s withdrawal was contingent on a Syrian withdrawal; however, Syria refused to recognize the agreement and nearly forty thousand Syrian troops remained in northern Lebanon. In March 1984, under pressure from Syria, the Lebanese government cancelled the peace agreement with Israel.

Significant Developments Syria. Hassan Nasrallah announced yesterday that Syria would transfer strategic “game-changing” weapons to the Lebanese group Hezbollah. The televised speech was a response to Israel’s alleged airstrikes near Damascus last Friday and Sunday that reportedly targeted Fateh-110 missiles transiting to Hezbollah from Iran. Israel has neither confirmed nor denied responsibility for the attacks, but a senior Israeli defense official said that the airstrikes were intended to prevent weapon transfers to Hezbollah and stressed that Israel was not taking sides in Syria’s civil war. Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that Israel warned the United States about an imminent Russian deal to sell advanced ground-to-air missile systems to Syria. Bashar al-Assad’s government has long been trying to buy S-300 missile batteries, which are capable of intercepting both manned aircraft and guided missiles. Western nations have repeatedly asked Russia not to make the sale, which would complicate any potential international intervention in Syria. Egypt. President Mohammed Morsi swore in nine new cabinet ministers on Tuesday following a major reshuffle that overhauled the government. Morsi replaced the ministers of finance, planning, investment and petroleum in the second reshuffle since he took office last June. Samir Radwan, a former finance minister, warned that the changes could adversely affect Egypt’s negotiation with the IMF over a $4.8 billion loan, saying “IMF officials have told me that each time they get used to a minister, he disappears…We know have our fifth finance minister since the revolution; this is a sign of instability.” U.S. Foreign Policy Syria. U.S. secretary of state John Kerry told reporters in Rome yesterday that Syrian president Bashar al-Assad would not be a component of a transitional government. His comments came two days after Kerry and Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov announced in Moscow that they would seek to hold an international conference within the coming month focusing on finding a political solution to the civil war in Syria. Kerry and Lavrov told reporters that they would push to have both Bashar al-Assad’s government and the Syrian opposition attend. Lavrov told reporters that Russia is not interested “in the fate of certain persons…We are interested in the fate of the Syria people.” Israel-Palestine. Secretary Kerry told reporters in Rome that he would travel to the Middle East in two weeks. Kerry made the announcement following his meeting with Israeli peace negotiator Tzipi Livni, saying he intended to meet with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas. "We are working through threshold questions and we are doing it with a seriousness of purpose that I think Minister Livni would agree with me has not been present in a while," Kerry said at the U.S. ambassador to Italy’s residence before meeting with Livni in private. His trip to the region will be his fourth since becoming Secretary of State. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Turkey. Kurdish militants began to withdraw their forces from Turkey to their stronghold in Iraq on Wednesday, the latest step in a peace process meant to end a three-decade long conflict. The withdrawal process is expected to be mostly complete by the end of June. Turkey’s deputy prime minister Bulent Arinc cautiously asserted that “we feel that we are nearing the conclusion,” but would not confirm the beginning of the withdrawal. Iran. Former parliament speaker Gholam Ali Haddad Adel, a close adviser to Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, joined the presidential race today. Haddad Adel is part of the Coalition of Three that includes two other Khamenei loyalists who have declared their candidacies: former foreign minister Ali Akbar Velayati and Tehran mayor Mohammed Baqer Qalibaf. Iranian media has speculated that two of the three will step aside in favor of whomever appears to be in the strongest position as the race heats up. Meanwhile, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, former president of Iran from 1989 until 1997, told his students at Tehran University on Sunday that he would run if convinced that his presence would be beneficial to the country. Registration for candidates began on Tuesday morning and will continue until tomorrow. The election is slated for June 14. Libya. Two police stations in Benghazi were hit by bombs early this morning. It is the fourth time in the past month that police stations in the city have been attacked with explosives. Meanwhile, Libya’s General National Congress passed the Political Isolation Law on Sunday excluding former officials from the Qaddafi era from public office. The law’s passage comes after heavily armed militiamen blockaded the foreign and interior ministries from April 28 to May 5 demanding legislators back the bill. Proponents of the law have made clear their intention to specifically exclude from public office former prime minister Mahmoud Jibril. Israel. Israeli security forces detained Mohammed Ahmad Hussein, the grand mufti of Jerusalem, on Wednesday and held him for questioning on suspicion of involvement in the latest disturbance at al-Aqsa Mosque. Following six hours of questioning, the grand mufti was released without charges. His detention sparked small demonstrations against Israel in Jordan and Egypt. This Week in History This week marks the fifty-second anniversary of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi dissolution of Iran’s parliament, paving the way for his modernization agenda and the “White Revolution.” On May 5, 1961, Iranian prime minister Jafar Sharif Imami and his cabinet resigned a day after fifty thousand demonstrators clashed with security forces during a teacher’s strike. The following day, the shah appointed Ali Amini as prime minister. On May 9 he dissolved both houses of parliament, receiving a mandate to rule for six months by cabinet decree. Under Amini, the cabinet adopted a land reform law, which redistributed land from the minority to small-scale cultivators. The land reform law was a prelude to the shah’s “White Revolution,” a more ambitious package of social, political, and economic reforms that were approved by popular referendum in 1963.

Significant Developments Syria. Syrian officials today denied international allegations that Bashar al-Assad’s forces had used chemical weapons in Syria. Yesterday, the White House sent a letter to Congressional leaders stating that U.S.  intelligence agencies assessed “with varying degrees of confidence” that Assad’s government had used the chemical agent sarin on a small scale. Israel’s senior most military intelligence analyst, Brigadier General Itai Brun, said on Tuesday that the Syrian government had repeatedly used chemical weapons last month. The British and French governments told the United Nations last week that they have “credible evidence,” based on soil samples and witness testimony, that Assad’s government has used small amounts of chemical weapons against its own people. Iraq. Bombings at multiple Sunni mosques in and around Baghdad today killed four people and wounded fifty more in the latest of a string of attacks that have killed more than one hundred and fifty people in the past four days. Iraqi prime minister Nouri al-Maliki appeared on national television yesterday to appeal for calm and blamed Baath party remnants for the attacks. The latest violence began on Tuesday when security forces clashed with anti-government protesters in Hawijah, leaving fifty-three people dead. The escalating violence came as the preliminary results were announced for provincial elections held on Saturday. Al-Maliki’s State of Law bloc was set to win the most votes in eight of the twelve participating provinces with 87 percent of the vote counted. U.S. Foreign Policy Developments Jordan and Qatar. President Obama hosted Jordan’s king Abdullah at the White House today, one month after Obama had visited the Hashemite kingdom. Earlier in the week, on Tuesday, the president met Qatari emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani. Regional security and the situation in Syria dominated both visits. Hagel to the Middle East. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel wrapped up his first visit to the Middle East and the Gulf as the Pentagon’s top official yesterday. Hagel visited Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE in an attempt to reach out to U.S. partners in the region and discuss regional threats. He also sought to finalize an arms deal to Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE worth ten billion dollars. During his two-day stop in Israel, Hagel asserted that there is “no daylight” between the United States and Israel on the goal of preventing a nuclear-armed Iran, but that “there may well be some differences” in the specific approaches. Palestine-Turkey. Secretary of State John Kerry returned to the region this weekend and met with Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas in Istanbul. Kerry and Abbas discussed ways to improve Palestinian living conditions as part of an attempt to restart peace talks with Israel. Kerry also met with Turkish foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu to discuss “the importance of completing the task with respect to the renewal of relations between Turkey and Israel.” Kerry was in Istanbul to attend an international conference on how best to aid rebels in Syria. He announced that the United States would double its nonlethal aid to the Syrian opposition with an additional $123 million. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Turkey. The Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK) announced on Thursday that it will begin withdrawing all of its forces from Turkey on May 8. Murat Karayilan, the current commander of the PKK, announced in a news conference that the guerilla fighters will move to bases in northern Iraq as part of peace efforts. Karayilan also called on the Turkish government to take specific measures including enacting a new constitution and releasing Kurdish prisoners. The Kurdish withdrawal is a major step forward in peace talks that began in January between the Turkish government and imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan. Libya. A car bomb heavily damaged the French embassy in Tripoli on Tuesday, wounding two French guards in the first major attack against a western target in Libya since the killing of American ambassador Chris Stevens last September. No one claimed responsibility for the attack, although both the French and Libyan governments labeled it as an act of terrorism and pledged to “find the perpetrators and bring them to justice.” Israel. The Israeli military shot down an unmanned aerial drone approaching Israel from the Mediterranean Sea on Thursday. A spokesman for the Israeli military said that it was unclear who was behind the drone, but confirmed that it flew down from the Lebanese coast. This is the second drone in the past seven months that has entered Israeli territory; in October 2012, Israel shot down a drone that had intruded thirty-five miles across its southern border. Hezbollah denied responsibility for this week’s drone, though its leader Hassan Nasrallah claimed responsibility for last year’s drone incursion, pledging that it “was not the first time, and it will not be the last.” Bahrain. Juan Mendez, the UN special rapporteur on torture, said Wednesday that Bahrain “postponed indefinitely” his visit scheduled for May. Mendez warned that the Bahraini move could be “perceived as if there is something to hide.” This is the second time Bahrain has put off at short notice a scheduled visit by Mendez. The announcement coincided with the Bahraini government’s expression of dismay over a recent U.S. State Department assessment of human rights in the country. The State Department annual report said that the Bahraini government had failed to implement the most important recommendations of the Bahrain Independent Commission of Inquiry.  

Al-Monitor outlines the investigation of Egypt’s beloved comedian, Bassem Youssef. Muftah discusses how nuances of the Arabic language reflect and affect the ever turbulent politics of the region. A new resource, Syria Video, which compiles war videos and other information related to Syria’s ongoing civil war.

Elias Muhanna, of Qifa Nabki, gives his perspective on the recent resignation of Lebanese PM, Najib Mikati. The Risky Shift comments on corruption in Libya, and provides steps forward to improve it. Mohamed Daadaoui analyzes the Western Sahara-Morocco conflict and evaluates Javier Bardem’s 2012 documentary on the topic.

“We do not talk about Morsi’s legitimacy, but rather about his credibility in dealing with the problems of the ordinary Egyptian citizen…We are against his policies, and just as he is legitimate, the opposition is too.” –Former Arab League chief Amre Moussa speaking on behalf of the National Salvation Front “Am I a foreigner? Are we second-class citizens? Are we your enemies? We are Anbar, Kirkuk, Ninevah and Salahuddin.” – Iraqi cleric Saad al-Fayadh in front of thousands of worshippers in Ramadi “They must go, all of them, including the prime minister…The game is over. If they stay, one fears to see other assassinations in this climate of fear and violence.” – Besma Belaid, widow of slain Tunisian opposition leader Chokri Belaid “It seems to me that [Assad’s] chances of staying [in power] are shrinking day by day.” –Russian prime minister Dmitri Medvedev “I didn’t say women should not protest. Protesting is a right that I cannot deprive them from. All what I said was that they shouldn’t go to protests if they know beforehand they might be harassed or even raped.” –Egyptian preacher Ahmed Mahmoud Abdullah, known as Abu Islam “Fordow will never be shut down because … our national duty is to be able to defend our nuclear and vital centers against an enemy threat.” –Alaeddin Boroujerdi, chief of Iran’s parliament’s national security and foreign policy committee “I am not sure of the threats, but I prefer to do what is necessary because no one knows what will happen with the weapons that are in people’s hands.” –Abdelmalek Haj, a Libyan, explaining why he had moved his family out of the capital “I envy the Egyptians…There, the independent activists at least have a voice. Here, we have none. There, they have a unified army. Here, everything is divided, and nothing has changed.” – Radhia al-Mutawakel, a Yemeni political activist “Egyptian measures against tunnels have worsened since the election of Morsi. Our Hamas brothers thought he would open up Gaza. I guess they were wrong.” –A tunnel owner, who identified himself only as Ayed  

Nour Youssef on The Arabist offers her thoughts on the recent dialogue held between Egyptian comedian Bassem Youssef and al-Gama’a al-Islamiyya member Nageh Ibrahim. Mohammad Azeemullah wonders if the Libyan revolution has achieved its goals on the day before its second anniversary, and reflects on Libya’s greatest challenges going forward. Fahad Nazer writes that the "Saudi code" will prevent a repeat in the Kingdom of what took place in Egypt.

Mokhtar Belmokhtar’s group Al Mulathameen (translated by the New York Times as “The Brigade of the Masked Ones”) kidnapped more than forty international workers from the Algerian natural gas field, ln Amenas, which lies along the middle of Algeria’s eastern border with Libya. The attack was ostensibly in retaliation for French intervention in Mali, and specifically, the Algerian government’s decision to allow French military planes through their air space en route to Mali.  And that seems to be the assumption of much of the Western press commentary. But we should be cautious about uncritically swallowing the claim that the kidnapping was politically motivated. Belmokhtar is “Mr. Marlboro,” the chieftain of a highly successful smuggling ring. We should consider that his motives included the criminal. Belmokhtar is legendary in Algeria for his ability to avoid arrest.  He also had a falling out with AQIM some time ago. Western response to the situation in Mali since last weekend highlights the dearth of information and understanding about the Sahel. Hence, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s September 2012, paper “Organized Crime and Conflict in the Sahel-Sahara Region” is a must-read. Wolfram Lacher, the author, is a researcher at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. Written before the present round of the crisis, it is extraordinarily prescient. Among many other things, he shows that Mali’s last “democratic” government’s “…complicity with organized crime was the main factor enabling AQIM growth and a driver of conflict in the north of the country.”  The military coup of March 2012, did not end this:  “actors involved in organized crime currently wield decisive political and military influence in northern Mali.” It becomes very hard to differentiate between “good guys” and “bad guys,” between terrorists, criminals, and elements of governance. Indeed, on Mali, there is probably too much emphasis on Islam and “al-Qaeda-linked terrorism” (whatever that means) and not enough on organized crime.

Significant Middle East Developments Syria. Syrian president Bashar al-Assad gave his first speech in nearly seven months on Sunday, outlining a "peace plan" that ruled out any negotiation with Syria’s armed rebels. UN-Arab League envoy Lakhdar Brahimi called Assad’s speech “uncompromising” and said that the Syrian president could not be part of any transitional government-the closest Brahimi has come to calling for Assad’s resignation; Syria’s foreign ministry called Brahimi “flagrantly biased.” Russian and U.S. diplomats are scheduled to meet with Brahimi tomorrow in Geneva. Meanwhile, NATO officials condemned Syria for indiscriminately launching unguided, short-range missiles for the third time in the past week, accusing the regime of “utter disregard for the lives of the Syrian people.” Meanwhile, the Syrian government agreed to release more than two thousand prisoners in exchange for forty-eight Iranians held by rebels. The Iranian government claimed that all of the hostages had been pilgrims visiting a Shiite shrine near Damascus, but the rebels claimed they were active members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. Palestine. Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas met Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal in Cairo yesterday for the first time in over a year. The meeting was orchestrated by Egyptian president Mohammed Morsi, who also met with each of the faction leaders in an effort to renew reconciliation efforts. An Egyptian official involved in the negotiations said that the two had agreed to implement their previously agreed upon reconciliation pact and claimed that another meeting would take place in the first week of February to set an implementation timetable. Iraq.  A wave of bombings across central and eastern Iraq today killed at least nine people and wounded sixteen others amidst escalating sectarian tensions. Parliamentary opponents of Iraqi prime minister Nouri al-Maliki announced yesterday that they had gathered enough signatures to summon the prime minister to parliament for a no-confidence vote. The announcement follows more than two weeks of protests sparked by the arrest of Finance Minister Rafe al-Essawi’s bodyguards. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Libya. Interim president Mohammed al-Megarif survived an assassination attempt on Saturday while he was staying overnight in the southern desert. Three of Megarif’s bodyguards were wounded when gunmen opened fire at his hotel. Libya’s chronic instability and concerns over its ability to ensure regular oil production, prompted Prime Minister Ali Zidan yesterday to threaten to use force to impose order. Meanwhile, the main border crossing between Libya and Tunisia at Ras Jedir reopened today after hundreds of people protested the closure. Prime Minister Zidan will meet Tunisian prime minister Hamadi Jebali and Algerian prime minister Abdelmalek Sellal in Ghadames on Saturday to discuss joint border security concerns. Jordan. Syrian refugees living in the Zaatari refugee camp attacked Jordanian aid workers with stones and sticks on Tuesday after winter storms destroyed their tents and flooded the camp. Seven aid workers were reported injured. The UN has estimated that it needs at least 500 million dollars to help the more than 280,000 Syrian refugees estimated to be living in Jordan. Egypt. The Egyptian central bank announced a new foreign exchange system yesterday in a move intended to curb speculators but that could also precipitate increased wheat and oil prices. Meanwhile, Qatari prime minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassem al-Thani announced on Tuesday that Qatar would double its financial assistance to Egypt with an extra 2.5 billion dollars. A technical committee from the International Monetary Fund is expected in Cairo in a couple of weeks to resume negotiations over a 4.8 billion dollar loan. This Week in History Monday marked the sixty-seventh anniversary of the founding of Turkey’s Democratic Party. The DP became the country’s first opposition party to rise to power and end the era of one-party rule. Founded on January 7, 1946, the DP gained political traction following Turkish president Ismet Inonu’s decision in 1945 to open up the country’s political system. While some members of the ruling Republican People’s Party (CHP) wanted to suppress the DP, Inonu decided that a multiparty system would allow for a possible change in government and decided to abandon the title of “National Unchangeable Leader.” In the 1950 election, the DP won 54 percent of the vote and 396 out of 487 parliamentary seats, sweeping Ataturk’s CHP from power for the first time. The ten years of subsequent Democrat rule was marked by political instability, culminating in the imposition of martial law and a 1960 military coup that imprisoned the Democrat party leaders.  

Significant Middle East Developments Turkey-Syria. Turkey returned fire into Syria today after a new Syrian shell landed in the Turkish town of Akcakale. Today’s fire exchange comes two days after Syrian artillery fire across the border killed five Turkish civilians--a women, her three children, and a relative. Yesterday, while not explicitly naming Syria, the parliament gave the Turkish government blanket authorization to conduct military operations across its borders for the remainder of the year. Turkish prime minister Recep Erdogan reaffirmed his desire for peace with Syria but added that testing Turkey would be a “fatal mistake.” Meanwhile, the UN Security Council approved a unanimous statement Thursday calling for an immediate end to such violations of international law and for Syria to “to fully respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of its neighbors.” Syrian ambassador to the UN Bashar Ja’afari said that the Syrian government had not apologized because it is waiting for the findings of an investigation into the situation. Syria did express condolences to the families and to the people of Turkey for the deaths. Ja’afari also called on Turkey to “act wisely, rationally and responsibly” and to prevent cross-border crossings of “terrorists and insurgents.” Inside Syria, warplanes bombed Homs today while four thousand Republican Guards stormed the Qudsaya suburb of Damascus. Rebels announced the capture of an air defense base with a cache of missiles outside of Damascus. Jordan. King Abdullah dissolved parliament yesterday paving the way for parliamentary elections expected early next year. The announcement came on the eve of an Islamist-led demonstration in Amman today calling upon the king to enact faster and more extensive democratic reforms. The turnout today was significantly lower than the fifty thousand that the IAF, the Muslim Brotherhood’s political party and the demonstration’s organizer, had expected. Yesterday, the Jordanian government cancelled a planned pro-government demonstration scheduled for the same time as today’s opposition protest to avoid clashes and violence. Jordanian police arrested eight individuals in the lead-up to today’s demonstration after finding guns in three minibuses headed into central Amman. Iran. Iran experienced its first significant public unrest in two years on Wednesday, when security forces clashed with money changers and protesters in the heart of Tehran. The demonstrations were spurred by anxieties after the Iranian rial experienced a 40 percent drop against the dollar in the past week. Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad blamed the fall on currency speculators and tied it to U.S.-led sanctions. At least sixteen people were arrested for trading excessively outside the banking system. With a heavier than normal police presence on the streets, merchants reopened for business on Thursday amongst relative calm. Libya. Libyan prime minister Mustafa Abushagur announced Friday that he would withdraw his proposed cabinet line-up, a day after over one hundred protesters stormed the General Assembly to voice discontent and forced the session’s delay. Once the Assembly reconvened late Thursday evening, it voted to reject the prime minister’s nominations. Meanwhile, an FBI investigative team from the U.S. finally reached Benghazi on Thursday, nearly one month after the site was attacked and four U.S. officials were killed. Quotes of the Week “This last incident is pretty much the final straw…There has been an attack on our land and our citizens lost their lives, which surely has adequate response in international law.” – Turkish deputy prime minister Bulent Arinc said on Wednesday after Syrian mortar fire killed five civilians in Turkey “Maybe we have some violations from time to time, but it is not a widespread phenomenon.” – Ghazi Hamad, Hamas’ deputy foreign minister told the BBC regarding Human Rights Watch recent report on Gaza “Iran is overcoming the psychological war and conspiracy that the enemy has brought to the currency and gold market and this war is constantly fluctuating.” – Gholam Ali Haddad Adel, a close Khamenei ally, said according to Fars news agency While We Were Looking Elsewhere Tunisia.  Protesters today stormed the seat of local government in Sidi Bouzid where the first revolution of the Arab uprisings began. Sidi Bouzid, where fruit seller Mohammad Buazizi immolated himself and set off nation-wide protests in late 2010, has seen periodic demonstrations since. Meanwhile, interim president Moncef Marzouki apologized today to a woman raped by two police officers and then charged with indecent behavior last September. The president received the woman and her fiancé at the presidential palace today and called the police officers’ behavior an aberration. Gaza. Human Rights Watch released a report on Wednesday accusing Hamas’ security forces of committing severe abuses, including torture of detainees, execution after forced confessions, warrantless arrests, and subjecting civilians to military courts. Deputy Middle East Director of HRW, Joe Stork, said that “after five years of Hamas rule in Gaza, its criminal justice system reeks of injustice, routinely violates detainees’ rights, and grants impunity to abusive security service.” Yemen. The U.S. State Department added Yemeni group Ansar al-Sharia to its list of terrorist organizations yesterday. A released statement called Ansar al-Sharia a rebranding attempt by Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula in order to recruit more people. The UN’s Al Qaeda sanctions committee also listed Ansar al-Sharia as a terrorist group. The Southern Movement, an alliance of Yemeni groups that want independence for the southern part of the country, declared on Wednesday that they would not attend a national dialogue proposed for next month by the government. Iraq. Iraq experienced another wave of bombings on Sunday, capping the deadliest month in over two years. Insurgents coordinated attacks in various cities that targeted Shiite neighborhoods and security forces, killing twenty-six people and wounding at least ninety-four. This Week in History This week marks the eightieth anniversary of Iraq’s independence from Britain. On October 3, 1932,  Iraq was admitted to the League of Nations as an independent state ruled by the monarch King Faysal. However, British troops did not complete their withdrawal from Iraq until after World War II. The monarchy fell in 1958 to revolutionary forces led by General Abd al-Karim who proclaimed Iraq a republic. Members of the royal family, including the king and the crown prince, as well as Nuri as-Said, who had served as prime minister, were all killed.

My friend and tweep, Ramy Yaacoub, penned today’s post. He disagrees with my piece, Mohammed, KFC, and US. He argues that the protests in the Muslim world are actually about an offensive movie and differing worldviews rather than a history of subordination to the West. It’s well done. I’m sure you’ll be hearing from Ramy again. Follow him on Twitter: @RamyYaacoub The Innocence of Muslims, which depicts the Prophet Mohammed calling for the rape of enslaved women and the pillage of war booty, was followed by burning the American flag, ransacking American and other Western diplomatic facilities, and the killing of diplomats. All this happened in a span of the past week, yet no one saw it coming. In the midst of chaos, analysts and other observers try to make sense of these unfortunate events and find deeper meanings for them. The death of Ambassador Christopher Stevens, a great man by all measures, has skewed the assessment of the now week-long protests in the Middle East and broader Muslim world. The central question, which has vexed the policy community since the start of the protests and is: What are they really about? Is this really just about the movie? The answer is, no, but it is not about politics either. The protests are about culture and religion. The fact that a cheap and insulting movie motivated protests is the result of friction between two different worlds with vast cultural cleavages. This runs counter to the new conventional wisdom, which suggests that these demonstrations are a release, a pressure-valve exploding, due to wide discontent with U.S. foreign policy over many decades. It is important to note that this is not the first time in recent history that Muslim communities from all over the globe have responded angrily to an insult directed toward the Prophet. In 2005-2006, Denmark was the target of worldwide protests and boycott movements when a Danish cartoonist drew and published a caricature of the Prophet deemed highly offensive. It is safe to say that Denmark is not viewed as an imperialist nation with vast interests in the Middle East, unwavering support towards Israel, or global expansionist militaristic expeditions. Yet, the fury toward Denmark and its respect for freedom of speech, even when that speech insults one or more faiths, was unprecedented. The recent protests highlight the cultural divides between the West and the Middle East. Each side holds certain ideals sacred. In Egypt, nothing is holier than the Prophet, and desecrating his memory is unequivocal blasphemy to all Muslims. Meanwhile, in the West, freedom of speech remains an intrinsic right upheld for all, even those who peddle offensive ideas. The arrest of Alber Saber, 27, on the charge of atheism and for posting the trailer of The Innocence of Muslims on his personal Facebook page, is further proof and an example of the domestic repercussions of the cultural clash between the sanctity of religion and freedom of speech. The uproar of the past week is a direct consequence of the Salafi satellite television station "Al-Nas" ("The People"), a religious network that publicized the existence of The Innocence of Muslims. For the believers of a faith that prohibits painting or reenacting its Prophet, let alone portraying him in a demeaning manner, the emotional reaction should have been expected, based on religious and cultural parameters, not political ones. It is highly likely that the religious and political leaders who incited the protests solicited the emotions of keen defenders of Islam with other agendas in mind; however, had the movie not struck a cultural-religious nerve with the masses, such leaders would not have had troops to call upon. At many points we fail to understand the real causes behind the problems at hand, because even though we might be highly informed about current events, we tend to analyze the situation by applying the same lens, regardless of where these events take place. The history of vilifying “the other” is part of the eastern-western narrative, which also must be considered when reading through such analyses.  However, this was a skirmish in a battle that has only a mild relation to Western values, freedom of speech, and the acceptance of different opinions.