Jordan | Council on Foreign Relations

Jordan

Jordan Second

Lost in all the commentary in President Obama’s visit to Israel is the fact that he will also visit Jordan. The country is often derisively referred to as the “Hashemite Kingdom of Boredom,” but it has been anything but lately. To be sure, Jeffrey Goldberg’s extraordinary interview with King Abdullah II has caused quite a stir, but that is not the only reason why Jordan is interesting. In January the Jordanians held elections, there have been a spate of protests over food prices, strong criticism of the King from some of the monarchy’s heretofore strong tribal supporters, and Jordan is now host to more than half a million Syrian refugees. The fact that Syria is in chaos, sectarian gangs rule Iraq, Egypt is in turmoil, and predictions of a 3rd Palestinian intifada abound places King Abdullah and his Kingdom in a more uncomfortable position than usual. That said, I have been assured by people who know far more about Jordan than I that expectations of instability and threats to Hashemite rule are overblown—a function of a few boisterous activists and impressionable Western journalists. I’m willing to take assurances of Jordan’s stability at face value. I haven’t been there in some time and the country has never been much more than a passing interest of mine. The parliamentary elections and the protests are not new developments—elections have become the norm and Jordan has hardly been immune to demonstrations in the past— but they do come in the context of the regional uprisings that began in late 2010. I have also been told that while Jordanians may not be satisfied with the political system or their economic prospects they have drawn the conclusion that rapid change is too risky after looking at Syria and Egypt. If there was ever a Jordanian uprising, it is pretty well accepted that the United States and Israel would back the King’s efforts to quell unrest however he chooses to do so. This all seems like sound reasoning, but if the arguments about stability in the region have proven to be incorrect, why should observers put tremendous faith in similar arguments when it comes to Jordan? I’m not saying Jordan will go the way of its neighbors, but there are lingering questions about its politics: 1. King Abdullah has been on the throne for fourteen years, yet he still seems to have had some trouble eliciting the loyalty of Jordanians. Jordanians obviously have not been in open revolt during this period, but the King has yet to hit on an appealing vision of the future that captures the imagination of his subjects. It is not for lack of trying. In the early years, King Abdullah positioned himself as a reformer, slipping out of the palace incognito to experience life like an average Jordanian. It was pretty cool. (Can anyone imagine the entitled Gamal Mubarak hopping into a service taxi? Not a chance.) Still, this kind of quality of life crusading had its limits. Next came “Jordan First,” which despite good intentions, it was hard to determine what it was all about. Here is the official description: Jordan First is an attempt to define a new social accord between Jordanians, as it emphasizes the pre-eminence of Jordan’s interests above all other considerations, and reformulates the state-individual relationship. Moreover, it goes beyond being a mere concept, as it will be translated into an investment in the Jordanian people, in their education, training, health and well-being to prepare them for a future that promises prosperity, knowledge and accomplishment. Jordan First is a constructive appeal and an approach that seeks to open new doors for policies and programs in development, education, culture, communication and information. Moreover, Jordan First represents an invitation to civil society institutions and the private sector to raise their contribution in building a modern state through focusing on achieving economic, social, and political development, creating productive opportunities, fighting poverty and unemployment, and improving the standards of living of all citizens. In summary, Jordan First is a philosophy of governance. It is based on the premise of placing Jordan’s national interest at the forefront of all considerations of civil society. Assuming one can make sense of the preceding paragraph, the question remained: Wasn’t it always Jordan first? If not Jordan first, who? To be fair, the official description includes some jargon about civil society, reform, and a modern state all of which broke some new ground, but mostly this stuff warmed the hearts of the folks over at the National Endowment for Democracy, National Democratic Institute, International Republican Institute and the entire alphabet soup of Beltway civil society builders, election monitors, and democracy promoters without directly addressing the everyday challenges that Jordanians confronted. Next came democratic reform, which according to contemporaneous and historical accounts, amounted to very little. That’s where things stood until recently with a new push on democratic reform. The King and his people sound earnest and serious, but it remains entirely unclear whether Jordanians are buying this vision. It will depend, of course, on how small or wide the gap is between the principles that King Abdullah espouses and the practices of the people who have been selected to run the government. The recent elections, however, with what Curtis Ryan describes as the “extremely unequal balance of seats combined with major opposition boycotts” does not track with the King’s rhetorical commitment to democratic political change. 2. Jordan’s economy is, in a word, suffering. With instability all around, Petra, Wadi Rum, Jerash, and other places highlited in the Lonely Planet are wanting for tourists. Jordan never had much to offer foreign investors who, with few exceptions, are spooked by the region’s sudden dynamism. In addition, the Jordanians are now dealing with about one half million Syrian refugees (on top of Iraqi and Palestinian refugees). In recent months, the government has lifted subsidies on energy and is more generally, according to the International Monetary Fund, “implementing sound macroeconomic policies aimed at reducing fiscal and external imbalances in a socially acceptable way.” The Fund’s praise for the Jordanian government should be cold comfort. Despite the phrase “socially acceptable,” in order to be on the right side of the international financial institutions, the King has to be on the wrong side—at least in the short run—of his citizens. That is not a great place to be in the present political environment that pervades the region. The fact that there are rumors of palace corruption while Jordanians are suffering makes administering IMF prescriptions all the more precarious. Ultimately, the King does not seem to be in trouble, though he does have multiple problems. The good news is that while the Jordanians have a robust capacity to use coercion and force to try to maintain control, King Abdullah has used it relatively judiciously. At least publicly and to western audiences he has portrayed himself as wanting to get ahead of the curve, yet if he is sincere, he seems profoundly unsure about how to do it exactly.

Blog Post by Steven A. Cook March 21, 2013 From the Potomac to the Euphrates
United States

President Obama Meets the New Israeli Government

President Obama heads off to the Middle East just days after the new Israeli government’s formation. I was interviewed today by CFR.org on what the makeup of Israel’s new government will mean for the peace process, Iran, and domestic Israeli politics. You can watch the video embedded below, read excerpts from it here, or view it on YouTube here. http://youtu.be/nI5edOktKzY Meanwhile, yesterday, I previewed President Obama’s visit to Israel, the West Bank, and Jordan in an interview with Bernard Gwertzman. I’ve posted the transcript of that interview below: President Barack Obama’s first trip to Israel as president aims to reassure Israelis that he is a friend, says CFR Senior Fellow Robert M. Danin. "The visit is a restoration visit, it’s a restoring of bilateral relations between the United States and Israel, and between the United States and the Palestinian Authority," says Danin, speaking from Israel. Still, he says, there are very low expectations from the Palestinian side about the visit, which will also include Jordan. Danin notes that the new Israeli government that was formed on the eve of Obama’s visit is such a broad coalition that there are major pitfalls for Prime Minister Netanyahu, especially on the Palestinian issue. President Obama makes his first trip to Israel as president, arriving on Wednesday. He will meet a new Israeli government with many new faces, but one with Benjamin Netanyahu still serving as prime minister. Is it an important trip or more of a good will mission? The president wanted to come to Israel early in his presidency and early in the new prime ministership of Benjamin Netanyahu before there would be a sense that he needed to produce an outcome from the visit. Early on in his term and the term of the new Israeli government he could come to really recalibrate the bilateral relationship, and that’s really what this visit is about. It’s an opportunity to re-orient the relationship after a very rocky first term for the president. He’s coming to help convince the Israeli people that he actually is a friend of Israel. That said, there are issues to discuss with the Israeli government, and there are three key issues that he wants to talk about with the Israelis. First and foremost is Iran; second are the developments in Syria; and third are the traditional issues of peace with the Palestinians. Let’s talk about Iran. Netanyahu is not very happy with the results of recent nuclear talks in Kazakhstan, although others seemed more upbeat about the talks because they’re going to meet again on April 5. What is your sense on the two sides’ view on Iran? The public message from the president is: "People of Israel, I understand the threat; I am on top of this, don’t worry, trust me." The private message to the Israeli government is: "Don’t jam me, give me time, I’m pursuing both very rigorous sanctions and other means towards pressuring the Iranians and I’m exploring whether or not there’s a deal to be had." And on Syria, there’s not much difference, is there? No. Syria is actually one where there are a lot of analytical and operational convergences. There are some operational concerns about Syria’s weapons of mass destruction, and the effect that Syria’s civil war is having on the rest of the region. The Israelis are primarily worried about Syria’s WMDs falling into the wrong hands, as well as the refugee issue and the humanitarian crisis now that more than a million refugees have been created by the bloodshed and civil war. Given that Israel is Syria’s neighbor and there has already been some spillover from Syria onto its neighbors, there’s a lot to talk about it with the United States, even if there aren’t great policy differences. Indeed, the Israelis share many of the Obama administration’s concerns about radical elements within the Syrian opposition and what will happen to Syria in the post-Assad era. Let’s talk now a bit more about Palestinian peace talks, which got nowhere in the first term of Obama’s presidency. There’s now a new government taking over in Israel. Do you get the sense in Israel that there is a desire for more flexibility? When it comes to Israel and the Palestinians, the United States has significantly downplayed this issue and lowered expectations, so that nobody is expecting the president to come here with a plan or even any sort of initiative to move forward. He’s going to likely stress the importance of this issue in his public remarks, but in private discussions I don’t think he’s going to present a plan although he may outline some aspirations for his second term and some steps that he’d like to see both sides take in the short term to try to improve the environment and get back to negotiations. But the visit is a restoration visit; it’s a restoring of bilateral relations between the United States and Israel, and between the United States and the Palestinian Authority. One thing that’s very interesting is that the president is going to visit the Dead Sea Scrolls at the Israel Museum, and that’s a very symbolic and a very important move. One of the criticisms leveled against the president is that in his previous speeches, he always rooted his discussions about Israel in terms of the Holocaust, and Israel as the haven for the Jewish people as a result of the Holocaust. Israelis took issue with this, because they felt that it shortchanged the real, more fundamental reason for Israel, which is the connection between the Jewish people and the land of Israel. And by visiting the Dead Sea scrolls, which is the most tangible physical manifestation of the ancient Jewish presence in the land of Israel, he’s shifting the narrative and acknowledging that in fact Israel was about the Jewish people’s connection to this area, and not just as a safe haven from persecution in the twentieth century. Is there any indication from the American side that they have now altered their views of the Jewish settlements in the West Bank, which in the first term led to constant fights with the Israelis? Settlements have been an issue between the United States and every Israeli government, and the American position has treated the settlements as everything from illegal to unhelpful. And the degree to which Israel and the United States have agreed to disagree on this has varied, but there’s always been a core disagreement about the issue of settlement activity. What is the mood of the Palestinian leadership under Mahmoud Abbas? There’s no excitement really about the president’s visit. Again, this is the product of the United States successfully lowering expectations, so I’d characterize the Palestinian public mood—and I did visit the West Bank and meet with Palestinian leaders and people—as largely apathetic about the visit at the popular level. At the governmental level there’s always a hope that the visit will invigorate a renewed effort. And he’s going to Jordan also. Is the Jordan trip an important visit? For Jordan this visit is very important. I’ve spoken to Jordanian officials about it and it comes on the heels of Jordan just having finished a new election and the king unfurling a whole series of reform measures. In many ways the visit is meant to pay tribute to Jordan for having undertaken these reform efforts, as well as recognizing the economic pressures that Jordan faces—the fact that Jordan is on the frontline with Syria and facing a real serious challenge as a result of the influx of thousands of refugees. And finally, to reassure the Jordanians that the United States is still very attentive to the peace process, which is something the Jordanians are very concerned about because they are always fearful that the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians will somehow spill over and affect their own stability. Let’s talk about the new Israeli government, because besides Netanyahu, it’s led by two younger public faces that most Americans don’t know anything about. One is Yahir Lapid and the other is Naftali Bennett. We are seeing a fascinating story unfold. The Israeli elections were held on January 22, and in the intervening two months there’s been an effort to put together a coalition government. And what happened was that the two parties—Yesh Atid, led by Yair Lapid, and HaBait Yehudi, the Jewish Home, led by Naftali Bennett—formed an alliance after the election against Netanyahu. In putting themselves together they exerted a great deal of pressure on Netanyahu and were successful in extracting major concessions in terms of the government formation. What’s so interesting about it is that these two parties represent an alliance between secular middle class Israel and what I call the national religious Israelis. Yair Lapid is the liberal, and Naftali Bennett represents the national religious camp, the people who are religious and right wing but who are very much part of the Israeli mainstream—distinct from the ultra-Orthodox, who do not participate in Israeli national life; they do not go to the Army, and many of them do not work. They really live outside of the Israeli mainstream and yet reap many of the benefits of being part of Israel. So what you have now is a government that does not have the ultra-Orthodox in it for the first time in over ten years. You have this alliance that was formed between a center-left secular party under Lapid and a right-wing nationalist religious but modern Orthodox party of the right against Netanyahu. What that means is that you have a government that has formed an alliance about the need to address some of Israel’s social problems, the biggest agenda item being to equalize responsibility for national service and national participation. The effort is to try to pass legislation that will require the ultra-Orthodox to do national service in the army or elsewhere, and to really bear their share of the burden. This is kind of a victory for middle Israel, if you will. What’s interesting is that when it comes to foreign policy you have inside the coalition a huge range of opinions. So whereas the previous Israeli government had been solidly right-wing, this is a government that is much more diverse It means that you have the Likud Party that Netanyahu heads, which has become more hawkish and right-wing, but also Lapid, who insisted that one of his requirements to come into the coalition was the reinvigoration of the peace process with the Palestinians. You also have the party headed by Tzipi Livni, who ran on a platform of a two-state solution with the Palestinians. So there’s going to be a real tension inside the government between Netanyahu’s own party, which is allied with Bennett on this issue and will be very hostile to any concessions with the Palestinians, and then Lapid and Livni on the other hand, really wanting a peace process. Is Netanyahu stronger or weaker? I’d say that overall, Prime Minister Netanyahu has emerged from these elections politically weaker than he had been prior to the election. The outcome of the elections was a blow to him and his party, and the fact that he’s had to make all of these concessions in forming the coalition has weakened him further. The expectation in Israel is that this government is not going to be durable. It’s going to have sixty-eight seats—you require sixty to have a majority, so sixty-eight is not that strong a majority. It means that any one party can pretty much bring down the government.

Blog Post by Robert Danin March 19, 2013 Middle East Matters
United States

Middle East Matters This Week: Israel, Syria, Egypt, Tunisia, Bahrain, and Iraq

Significant Developments Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appeared poised to form a new government today with Yair Lapid, leader of the Yesh Atid party, and Naftali Bennett, leader of the Habayit Hayehudi party. The coalition agreement is expected to be signed tomorrow. Lapid will become Israel’s finance minister and Bennett is set to be appointed minister of economy and trade. Tzipi Livni, head of the Hatnuah party, is also a part of the new government and will become the justice minister with a special role in negotiations with the Palestinians. The new coalition, to be formed just before President Obama visits Israel, will be the first to exclude the ultra-orthodox parties in over a decade. Syria. French foreign minister Laurent Fabius warned today that France and Britain will push the European Union to end an embargo on supplying weapons to the Syrian opposition. Meanwhile, Syrian government warplanes bombarded rebel positions throughout the country today, after mortar shells hit a residential area in Damascus on Wednesday, killing three people and wounding over fifty. On Saturday, Syrian rebels released twenty-one UN peacekeepers after holding them for three days. The peacekeepers had been monitoring the truce between Israel and Syria in the Golan Heights. Egypt. A fact-finding commission, established by Egyptian president Mohammed Morsi to look into the deaths of nearly nine hundred protestors during the revolution, concluded that the police were responsible for nearly all of the killings. Meanwhile, an Egyptian legal body representing Morsi appealed the Administrative Court’s ruling on Wednesday that suspended parliamentary elections. The Supreme Administrative Court will hold a hearing for the appeal on March 17. U.S. Foreign Policy Presidential Visit. The White House is in the final stages of preparation for President Obama’s trip next week to Israel, the West Bank, and Jordan. The president is set to arrive in Israel on Wednesday, March 20. He will spend three days in the region before returning to Washington. It will be the president’s first visit to Israel since taking office in 2008. Syria. According to Der Spiegel and the Guardian, U.S. trainers are assisting Syrian rebels in Jordan. Some of the Americans are reportedly uniformed, although it is unclear if they are from theUS military or from private firms. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Tunisia. Lawmakers approved the new Tunisian government yesterday to serve as a caretaker until elections can be held later in the year. The approval of the new government was overshadowed by the death of Adel Kedhri, a twenty-seven year-old cigarette vendor, who set himself on fire on Tuesday, reportedly because of his dire economic circumstances. Bahrain. Thousands of protesters clashed with security forces in Manama today during demonstrations marking the second anniversary of the Saudi-led Gulf intervention in Bahrain’s Arab Spring inspired unrest. Two police officers were sentenced to ten years in prison on Tuesday for the fatal beating of a protester during the country’s unrest in 2011, which killed more than sixty people. The sentences are some of the harshest handed down against security forces for abuses during the unrest. Kuwait-Iraq. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon urged Iraq yesterday to remove all obstacles hindering the completion of the Iraq-Kuwait Boundary Maintenance Project. On Monday, Kuwait expressed dismay over a clash between Iraqi protesters and security forces in the border town of Um Qasr, which disrupted the process of repairing border markers. Iraq. Explosions ripped through Baghdad today killing at least twenty-five people. No one has claimed responsibility yet for the seemingly coordinated attacks consisting of two car bombs, a suicide bomber, and an raid against the Justice Ministry. Attacks throughout Iraq killed another twelve people on Monday. This Week in History Next week marks the tenth anniversary of the war in Iraq. On March 20, 2003, U.S.-led forces initiated an air campaign against Iraq with the goal of toppling Saddam Hussein. The ground invasion, mostly from the south, began soon after. President George W. Bush declared an end to major combat on May 1, 2003 and Saddam Hussein was captured on December 13, 2003. See CFR president Richard Haass’ retrospective on the war in an interview with CFR.org.

Blog Post by Robert Danin March 14, 2013 Middle East Matters

Jordan

Weekend Reading: Tunisian Shake, Jordan’s Price Hike, and Syria’s Rebel Leadership

Haifa Zaaiter argues that the "Harlem Shake" craze that has hit Tunisia may end up disarming the Salafists of their most potent weapon: denouncement of apostasy. The Impatient Bedouin reflects on the recent outburst of violence in Jordan’s parliament over the country’s decision to raise fuel prices last week. Mustafa Akyol recalls his interview this past Monday with Sheikh Mouaz al-Khatib, the President of the National Coalition for Opposition Forces and the Syrian Revolution.

Blog Post by Steven A. Cook March 8, 2013 From the Potomac to the Euphrates
Egypt

Voices From the Region: Tunisia, Egypt, Jordan, and Iraq

“Ghannouchi, assassin, criminal…Tunisia is free, terrorism out.” –Demonstrators against Tunisia’s ruling party Ennahda during Chorki Belaid’s funeral “Morsi is an employee who works for us. He must do what suits us, and this needs to be made clear.” – Ahmed Mansour, a doctor “Our enemies want a conflict between Islam and Islam. Ennahda wants to meet us, but their hands are tied by the government, because it obeys the orders of the West.” –Seif Allah Ibn Hussein, a fugitive Tunisian imam accused of planning an attack on the U.S. embassy last year “We are a part of the soil of this nation. We are not a minority when it comes to value, history and the love of our nation.” –Egyptian’s Coptic Christian leader Pope Tawadros II on Tuesday “You tell us we are troublesome, so let us get killed in Syria, leave us to meet our fate in this inferno…What they fear is that these youths will return like the ’Afghan Arabs’ did. They fear they would come back one day and declare jihad and fight here.” –Mohammed Shalabi, a Jordanian preacher better known as Abu Sayyaf speaking about Jordanian intelligence officers who asked him to restrain fighters set to travel to Syria “We will protect Abu Risha, we do not need Maliki’s guards, for we are the ones who fought the terrorists when there was not a single police officer or soldier in Anbar province.” –Adnan al-Alwani, an Anbar tribal leader, on protecting the Abu Risha, the head of the Iraqi Awakening Council after Iraqi prime minister withdrew his security detail “There is only two months or less left before holding the parliamentary elections. Then there will be a true national salvation government that reflects the street…” –Egyptian presidential spokesman Yasser Ali in response to calls for a national salvation government “The Salvation Front intends to destroy the country in a struggle for power.” –Farid Ismail, a member of the Freedom and Justice Party’s executive bureau in Egypt

Blog Post by Robert Danin February 8, 2013 Middle East Matters
Israel

Voices From the Region: Jordan, Iran, Lebanon, Syria, Israel

“We don’t want old faces. We tried that…We are worried…We can help Jordan not go the same way as Syria and Egypt.” –Khalid Hammad, 28, a lawyer who voted in Amman, in support of a friend, a fellow lawyer who was a first-time candidate “This assembly has the same credentials of the previous one in its weakness and lack of will in practicing its constitutional role in legislation and making governments accountable.” –Deputy Chief of the Brotherhood Zaki Bani Rusheid dismissing the newly elected Jordanian parliament “Don’t buy our oil? To hell with you…It’s better if you don’t buy...Ten times more money will head to people’s pockets through the inventions of our scientists.” –Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad addressing a group of Iranians in the western city of Hamedan “We see in the arenas of Arab regions, men who are ahead of us. They fought for and achieved freedom and democracy…But we remain prisoners of a fake democracy that carries with it the ugliest forms of complex dictatorship, horrible sectarianism practices, and wait-and-see and speculative policies.” –Grand Mufti of Lebanon Sheikh Mohammad Qabbani in a statement “I am Kurdish, and as a Kurdish citizen I am fighting side to side with the Free Syrian Army, because you cannot find anybody who was not stepped on by the regime, or was not wronged.” –Yousef Haidar, 72, village elder of Alghooz, Syria “I didn’t realize until I entered [Syria] and moving around just how much has been destroyed already of the very vital infrastructure for the functioning of a society.” –John Ging, operations director at the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), in a news conference in Beirut “If we want to founder from the outset, and embark upon endless internal struggles, then make foreign policy the top priority…If we want the government to be effective and accomplish things, and leave a strong, significant imprint, I think everyone understands the need for domestic changes is dramatic, and that is the order of the day. So leave the foreign issues aside.” –former Israeli foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman on Israel Radio “It’s a national wedding in Jordan, with the bride being the new parliament.” –Amman housewife Basma Edwan, 32, as she enthusiastically cast her ballot

Blog Post by Robert Danin January 25, 2013 Middle East Matters

Iraq

Weekend Reading: Iraq’s Sects, Jordan’s Elections, and Bahrain’s Social Networks

Wadah Khanfar discusses Iraq’s problem of increased sectarian tension, which threatens Iraq’s security and the security of the whole region. Abdulilah, posting on AmmonNews, offers reflections on Jordan’s upcoming parliamentary elections, which will take place on January 23. Justin Gengler posts, among other links related to Bahrain, a link to an analysis of Bahrain’s social networks.

Blog Post by Steven A. Cook January 18, 2013 From the Potomac to the Euphrates
Palestinian Territories

Middle East Matters This Week: Assad Stalls, Palestinians Talk, and Iraq Explodes

Significant Middle East Developments Syria. Syrian president Bashar al-Assad gave his first speech in nearly seven months on Sunday, outlining a "peace plan" that ruled out any negotiation with Syria’s armed rebels. UN-Arab League envoy Lakhdar Brahimi called Assad’s speech “uncompromising” and said that the Syrian president could not be part of any transitional government-the closest Brahimi has come to calling for Assad’s resignation; Syria’s foreign ministry called Brahimi “flagrantly biased.” Russian and U.S. diplomats are scheduled to meet with Brahimi tomorrow in Geneva. Meanwhile, NATO officials condemned Syria for indiscriminately launching unguided, short-range missiles for the third time in the past week, accusing the regime of “utter disregard for the lives of the Syrian people.” Meanwhile, the Syrian government agreed to release more than two thousand prisoners in exchange for forty-eight Iranians held by rebels. The Iranian government claimed that all of the hostages had been pilgrims visiting a Shiite shrine near Damascus, but the rebels claimed they were active members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. Palestine. Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas met Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal in Cairo yesterday for the first time in over a year. The meeting was orchestrated by Egyptian president Mohammed Morsi, who also met with each of the faction leaders in an effort to renew reconciliation efforts. An Egyptian official involved in the negotiations said that the two had agreed to implement their previously agreed upon reconciliation pact and claimed that another meeting would take place in the first week of February to set an implementation timetable. Iraq. A wave of bombings across central and eastern Iraq today killed at least nine people and wounded sixteen others amidst escalating sectarian tensions. Parliamentary opponents of Iraqi prime minister Nouri al-Maliki announced yesterday that they had gathered enough signatures to summon the prime minister to parliament for a no-confidence vote. The announcement follows more than two weeks of protests sparked by the arrest of Finance Minister Rafe al-Essawi’s bodyguards. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Libya. Interim president Mohammed al-Megarif survived an assassination attempt on Saturday while he was staying overnight in the southern desert. Three of Megarif’s bodyguards were wounded when gunmen opened fire at his hotel. Libya’s chronic instability and concerns over its ability to ensure regular oil production, prompted Prime Minister Ali Zidan yesterday to threaten to use force to impose order. Meanwhile, the main border crossing between Libya and Tunisia at Ras Jedir reopened today after hundreds of people protested the closure. Prime Minister Zidan will meet Tunisian prime minister Hamadi Jebali and Algerian prime minister Abdelmalek Sellal in Ghadames on Saturday to discuss joint border security concerns. Jordan. Syrian refugees living in the Zaatari refugee camp attacked Jordanian aid workers with stones and sticks on Tuesday after winter storms destroyed their tents and flooded the camp. Seven aid workers were reported injured. The UN has estimated that it needs at least 500 million dollars to help the more than 280,000 Syrian refugees estimated to be living in Jordan. Egypt. The Egyptian central bank announced a new foreign exchange system yesterday in a move intended to curb speculators but that could also precipitate increased wheat and oil prices. Meanwhile, Qatari prime minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassem al-Thani announced on Tuesday that Qatar would double its financial assistance to Egypt with an extra 2.5 billion dollars. A technical committee from the International Monetary Fund is expected in Cairo in a couple of weeks to resume negotiations over a 4.8 billion dollar loan. This Week in History Monday marked the sixty-seventh anniversary of the founding of Turkey’s Democratic Party. The DP became the country’s first opposition party to rise to power and end the era of one-party rule. Founded on January 7, 1946, the DP gained political traction following Turkish president Ismet Inonu’s decision in 1945 to open up the country’s political system. While some members of the ruling Republican People’s Party (CHP) wanted to suppress the DP, Inonu decided that a multiparty system would allow for a possible change in government and decided to abandon the title of “National Unchangeable Leader.” In the 1950 election, the DP won 54 percent of the vote and 396 out of 487 parliamentary seats, sweeping Ataturk’s CHP from power for the first time. The ten years of subsequent Democrat rule was marked by political instability, culminating in the imposition of martial law and a 1960 military coup that imprisoned the Democrat party leaders.

Blog Post by Robert Danin January 10, 2013 Middle East Matters
Politics and Government

Weekend Reading: Turkish Justice, Great Expectations in Egypt, and Jordan’s Challenges

Markar Esayan says that Turkey’s democracy can only be consolidated if criminals of the past are held accountable, including officers of the Turkish Armed Forces. Ahmed Zewail avers that Islam is not the problem in Egypt, but rather the unrealistic expectations for speedy changes during a difficult transition. The blog Black Iris reflects on Jordan’s failure to change and progress during 2012, and gives predictions for what may come for the country in 2013.

Blog Post by Steven A. Cook January 4, 2013 From the Potomac to the Euphrates
Israel

A Final Note From 2012

Last week I posted my take on the most significant Middle East developments of 2012. The ten developments that I identified, in chronological order, were: The cold war with Iran heats up The Muslim Brotherhood’s election in Egypt Syria’s descent into civil war The Innocence of Muslims anti-American riots The killing of U.S. ambassador Chris Stevens in Benghazi Political unrest in Jordan The Israel-Hamas November conflict The United Nations recognition of Palestine as a non-member state International failure to stop Syria’s bloodshed The Muslim Brotherhood’s struggle to consolidate power in Egypt Two readers of Middle East Matters provided thought provoking alternatives worthy of mention: One colleague suggested that the death of Saudi crown prince Nayef bin Abdul Aziz, following the death of his brother and former heir apparent Prince Sultan bin Abdel Aziz the previous year, marked an important generational change underway in the kingdom’s leadership. A second colleague suggested six excellent alternatives: Political paralysis in Saudi Arabia The descent into civil war between the Kurds and other groups in Iraq The diminished Middle East role of Turkey’s prime minister Erdogan The success of Israel’s new Iron Dome system The rise of Middle East Salafists The spread of Qatari influence in the Middle East These were indeed important developments in 2012, a difficult and eventful year for the Middle East. The year ahead promises to be no less turbulent and momentous. In my next blog we’ll look at the year to come. Remembering Chris Stevens: The tragic death of Ambassador Stevens continues to touch those who knew him. He was the best of the best and a friend. His family has set up a very moving website to remember him, share memories, or give to a fund established in his honor to build bridges between the people of the United States and the Middle East. I urge you to take a look: http://RememberingChrisStevens.com.

Blog Post by Robert Danin January 2, 2013 Middle East Matters
United States

Middle East Matters This Week: Egypt Boils, Palestine Upgrades, and Syria’s Opposition Gains

Significant Middle East Developments Egypt. Tens of thousands of protesters poured into Cairo’s Tahrir Square today to demonstrate against Egyptian president Mohamed Morsi and the draft constitution that was approved late last night by the Islamist-dominated constituent assembly. The proposed document is slated to go to Morsi tomorrow for his approval and an announcement of a date for a popular referendum. More than two hundred thousand people took to the streets on Tuesday against Morsi’s decree last week that granted him and the constituent assembly the power to operate outside the purview of judicial review. Despite Morsi’s decree, the Supreme Constitutional Court is set to rule on Sunday whether or not to dissolve the Constituent Assembly. It is not clear what impact such a move would have on the proposed draft constitution. Palestine and Israel. The UN General Assembly voted overwhelmingly yesterday to upgrade Palestine to the status of non-member observer state. There were 138 votes in favor, 9 against and 41 abstentions. The United States and Israel led the vocal minority against recognition that included Canada and the Czech Republic, while the United Kingdom and Germany abstained. France led a contingent of EU countries in favor of the upgrade. Before the vote, Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas addressed the UN body in strong language, saying: “What permits the Israeli Government to blatantly continue with its aggressive policies and the perpetration of war crimes stems from its conviction that it is above the international law and that it has immunity from accountability and consequences. This belief, unfortunately, is bolstered by the failure by some to condemn and demand the cessation of its violations and crimes and by positions that equate the victim and the executioner.” Following the vote, Secretary of State Clinton called the move “unfortunate and counterproductive.” Today, in retaliation for the Palestinian move, Israel’s inner cabinet approved the construction of three thousand new housing units in the West Bank and east Jerusalem, including in the critical area known as E-1 that connects Jerusalem and Ma’aleh Adumim. The White House immediately called the settlement move “counterproductive,” reiterating longstanding U.S. opposition to building at E-1, and said that it could make it harder to bring Israelis and Palestinians back to the negotiating table. Syria. Fighting between rebels and regime forces continued today near the Damascus International airport, disrupting flights in and out of the country after violence closed the airport yesterday. The government apparently cut off the country’s internet services yesterday and today, stoking fear that the regime may be ramping up for an even greater escalation. The Syrian opposition has reportedly made significant gains fighting in recent weeks, including overrunning military bases and striking targets in Damascus with greater frequency. U.S. officials have said that Washington is moving closer towards recognizing the Syrian opposition. An announcement to that effect may be made when Secretary Clinton attends the next Friends of Syria meeting in Morocco on December 12. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Kuwait. Tens of thousands of people took to the streets of Kuwait City today in protest of tomorrow’s national assembly election. The opposition is boycotting the election, angry over the emir’s decision last month to change Kuwait’s multi-vote system in which everyone could vote for four candidates to a one-vote-one-person system. Jordan. Protests against fuel price hikes erupted in Amman today following Friday prayer. Former prime minister Ahmad Obeidat joined the protesters while urging them to focus on reform, saying “We did not come here today to flex muscle. We came here to defend our constitutional rights. We will stick to our demand of reforming the regime.” Iran. The U.S. Senate approved new sanctions on Iran today, despite White House objections that the new penalties may undermine sanctions already in place. New sanctions will target Iran’s energy, ports, shipping, and shipbuilding sectors, as well as the metals trade. Meanwhile, Iran’s envoy to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Ali Asghar Soltaneih, said today that if bombed, Iran could withdraw from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). This Week in History Yesterday marked the sixty-fifth anniversary of the UN vote to partition the territory of Palestine between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean (Transjordan, originally part of Palestine, had been established in 1946). On November 29, 1947, the United Nations General Assembly passed Resolution 181 calling for the establishment of two independent states, one Arab and one Jewish, with a special international regime for the city of Jerusalem. Britain, which had occupied Palestine in 1917 and governed it under a League of Nations mandate, turned to the UN in February 1947 asking it to recommend a future course of action. The subsequent Special Committee on Palestine made two recommendations: a majority report recommended partition, and a minority recommended a federal state. The majority plan was approved on November 27 by a vote of 33 in favor, 13 opposed, and ten abstentions. The resolution recommending partition was accepted by the Jewish Agency for Palestine but rejected by the Palestinian Arab Higher Committee. Civil war broke out immediately between the two communities in Palestine, turning into the first full-fledged regional war in May 1948 when British forces evacuated Palestine and the Jewish community there declared independence. The 1947 resolution formed the basis for Israel’s independence, and was cited by the PLO in 1988 as the basis for Palestine’s Declaration of Independence. Yesterday’s General Assembly resolution granting Palestine non-member observer state status at the United Nations cited Resolution 181 as one source for its basis.

Blog Post by Robert Danin November 30, 2012 Middle East Matters
Israel

Voices From the Region: Egypt, Israel, Jordan, and Gaza

“God’s will and elections made me the captain of this ship.” – Mohamed Morsi “Every single political group in the country is now divided over this — is this decree revolutionary justice or building a new dictatorship? Should we align ourselves with folool or should we be revolutionary purists? Is it a conflict between the Muslim Brotherhood and the pro-Mubarak judiciary, or is this the beginning of a fascist regime in the making?” – Rabab el-Mahdi, an activist and professor at the American University in Cairo “The one thing I can tell you is this: in the ’40s, ’50s and ’60s, whenever bad things happened in the region, people would question Jordan’s stability. But they’re all gone, and we’re still here.” – Jordanian foreign minister Nasser Judeh “It’s the first time in seventy years I feel proud and my head is high...It’s a great victory for the people of Palestine.” – Mohammed Rajah, a Gaza refugee “Frankly, I have to say kudos to Netanyahu, and I don’t usually pay him compliments. I think he got the best out of a bad situation.” – Gadi Wolfsen, professor at the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya, Israel “They believe only in Islam. Our affiliation is with our country. We want a modern state. How can we believe the Muslim Brotherhood will take it for us?" – Dr. Ali Abdul Hafiz, former Brotherhood member and now an opponent “We are against calls for regime change...We have called, and always will call, for regime reform and democratic reforms.” – Hamzah Mansour, Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood leader “[We] don’t want to create another Mubarak…The only way is to show that we are very angry and to let this president and any other president know that we won’t do whatever they want to do.” – Nigad al-Boraei, a prominent human-rights lawyer

Blog Post by Robert Danin November 27, 2012 Middle East Matters
Jordan

Weekend Reading: Kurdish Hunger Strikers, Jabari’s Assassination, and Jordan in Turmoil

Jake Hess’ take on hunger striking Kurds. Issandr el Amrani on Ahmed al Jabari’s assassination. Katie Paul looks at the escalating crisis in Jordan.

Blog Post by Steven A. Cook November 17, 2012 From the Potomac to the Euphrates
Jordan

Postcard From Amman

AMMAN - Demonstrations broke out in many parts of Jordan last night after the government announced the reduction of energy subsidies. Demonstrations are not new--there have been regular demonstrations in Jordan since the advent of the Arab uprisings. What was new was the fusion of economic discontent, anger at perceived government corruption, and the calls in some quarters for regime change. This is not the first time the government has suspended the subsidies—it did so several months ago but backed down after popular protest. But with energy and fuel accounting for more than 30 percent of the government’s budget, continued subsidies were judged by the government as unsustainable. The choice they faced was a milder glide path towards lifting price supports now, or more severe cost cutting measures later. That the country is faced with the challenge of hosting hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees has only further taxed the already cash-strapped government’s capacities. The tragedy of Jordan’s current energy crisis is that it could so easily be rectified. If, for example, Egypt were to deliver gas to Jordan in accordance with their agreement, the Jordanian government would not need to lift fuel subsidies. A large chunk of the government’s subsidies would become unnecessary. The disruption of the pipeline is only part of the problem. The other is the diversion of gas earmarked for export to domestic purposes. In this conspiracy laden region, some suspect the Morsi government of at best shedding no tears for Jordan’s instability, or at worst trying to help foment it. Another remedy would be for the neighboring Gulf states to offer greater assistance. In 2003, when Jordan faced major oil disruptions due to the Iraq war, Saudi Arabia offered Jordan concessionary oil to help it weather the storm. Today, such assistance is lacking. However we got here, the reality is that the Jordanian regime now faces a significant political as well as economic challenge. To date, the Hashemites, like a number of monarchies, have been able to deflect popular discontent onto the government. Thus, King Abdullah has sacked four prime ministers in the past year alone. But this tool becomes increasingly ineffective with each successive government change. To get in front of this, Jordan will hold new parliamentary elections on January 23, 2013. This election is being shepherded by Abdelelah al-Khatib, the venerated Jordanian civil servant and former foreign minister who most recently served as the United Nations special envoy to Libya. Few doubt that under his stewardship, the elections will be free and fair. The challenge the regime faces, however, is that the leading opposition group, the Muslim Brotherhood, has decided to boycott the elections, preferring the street to the ballot box. Hence, convincing economically strapped Jordanians that the January vote is the best vehicle for precipitating genuine change is item number one. Jordanians look to Syria to the north and Egypt to the south and are not yet convinced that revolution is the path for them. Still, their economic grievances are genuine and their frustration at the slow pace of reform is real. Now that Jordanians have taken to the streets, the government must handle the demonstrations delicately and avoid violence at all costs. The danger is government mishandling could be exploited by those who seek to use the street rather than the ballot box as the means towards addressing their political grievances. The immediate period ahead is sure to be tumultuous. Whether or not the current crisis is but yet another bump within a circumscribed political environment overseen by the Hashemite rulers, or if this is indeed a more significant challenge to the entire system will become clearer this Friday when protests are sure to erupt in earnest.

Blog Post by Robert Danin November 14, 2012 Middle East Matters
Turkey

Weekend Reading: Egypt’s Salafists, Jordan’s President, and Turkey’s Republic Day

Ashraf El-Sherif provides insight into the two camps within Egyptian Salafism, both competing for legitimacy in Egypt’s new political landscape. The Jordanian blog The Black Iris offers thoughts on the Hashemite Kingdom’s president’s recent speech. Jenny White discusses some of the hostility surrounding Turkey’s recent Republic Day.

Blog Post by Steven A. Cook November 2, 2012 From the Potomac to the Euphrates