Jordan

“How long can this situation continue? I mean in Bosnia, now we have Ban Ki-moon [the UN secretary general] apologising 20 years after. Who will apologise for Syria in 20 years’ time? How can we stay idle?” – Turkish foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu in an Istanbul interview   “The Lebanese people won’t accept, after today, the continuation of the government of assassination.” – Lebanese former prime iminister Fouad Siniora said during a funeral oration Sunday   “Netanyahu felt that the chance that he may lose the reigns of government are greater than ever…This is a move that effectively makes the Likud Lieberman’s party.”  –  Labor party leader Shelly Yachimovich on Thursday in response to the news of Likud’s merger with Yisrael Beiteinu   “Give it a rest, Obama…We want to get some sleep.” – a resident of Benghazi in a Twitter post Saturday in response to loud low-flying drones   “Why are you staying divided? There are no peace negotiations, and there is no clear strategy of resistance and liberation. Why shouldn’t brothers sit together and reconcile? Surely you realize that your division is the source of greater harm to your cause and the cause of all Arabs.” – Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani said during a speech at Gaza’s Islamic University on Tuesday   “There is no such thing as who is better (as a candidate)…If my cousin is running, I give it (the vote) to my cousin.” – Shafiq Deis, a 70-year-old carpenter in the town of Beit Sahour south of Jerusalem   “It’s good for the public to know that the [Egyptian] current leadership is acting against Hamas in a very tough way …I can tell you that Egypt’s actions against Hamas are much harsher than it was under the previous regime.” – Israeli vice premier Silvan Shalom on Thursday   “Being king, to me, is not a benefit that I seek, it is a responsibility…Governing was never for us about holding a monopoly over authority, nor about power and its tools, but about supporting state institutions run by Jordanians from all segments of society.” – Jordan’s king Abdullah on Tuesday   “It is clear today that the struggle is over Israel’s future image and values. The vote is between an extreme and isolated country and a Zionist and sane country. I was born into the Herut movement and I am aware of the values the Likud was supposed to represent but neglected.” – Former Kadima chairwoman Tzipi Livni on Thursday in response to the news of Likud’s merger with Yisrael Beiteinu   “It’s a moment of truth…We’re determined to change the status quo.” – Palestinian chief negotiator Saeb Erakat said in an interview Wednesday about the UN statehood bid

Significant Middle East Developments Syria. A deadly car bomb exploded in Damascus today just hours after the Eid holiday ceasefire, brokered by UN-Arab League envoy Lakhdar Brahimi between Syria’s regime and the Free Syrian Army, took effect. Over sixty people have been killed throughout Syria today despite the ceasefire. The bomb, detonated near a children’s playground, killed five people and wounded over thirty more. Clashes also broke out between regime troops and rebels in Damascus’ suburbs and around the Wadi Deif base in northwestern Syria, while army shelling was reported in Homs. Despite the violence, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights noted that it was still less than usual. Taking advantage of the relative lull in violence, the largest anti-regime protests in months gathered in the streets of several cities. The ceasefire is meant to be in place for the Eid holiday. Iran. Citing intelligence officials from several countries, the New York Times reported today that Iran has nearly completed its underground uranium enrichment plant at Fordo. The disclosure of the near-completion of Fordo comes just days after the New York Times reported the United States and Iran had reached an agreement to hold bilateral face-to face negotiations. White House and Iranian officials immediately denied that report. NSC spokesman Tommy Vietor addressed the Fordo reports, saying, “The president is determined to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon and continues to believe there is time and space for diplomacy.” Until last month, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu had implied that he would not allow the Fordo plant to go into operation, with other Israeli officials arguing that once it did, Iran would enter a “zone of immunity” since Israel does not possess the bunker-buster bombs necessary to destroy the plant. However, in his remarks before the UN General Assembly in September, Netanyahu seemingly backed off of that position, laying down a deadline of next spring before military action must be taken. Israel. With Israel slated to head to the polls on January 22, prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a surprise joint ticket Thursday between his Likud Party and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu Party. The joint list will be proportional to the two party’s current Knesset makeup, in which they jointly hold a total of forty-two seats – twenty-seven for Likud and fifteen for Yisrael Beiteinu. Israel’s Channel Two television reported last night that the two men had also agreed to rotate the position of prime minister, with Lieberman set to take over for the fourth year. However, both Lieberman and Netanyahu have denied the report. Jordan. Jordanian officials announced Sunday that they had thwarted a major terrorist plot to attack multiple civilian and diplomatic targets. The Jordanian government said it had apprehended eleven Jordanian nationals with links to Al Qaeda in Iraq, who were gathering weapons and explosives in Syria for use in Jordan. The plot has been described as the most serious in Jordan since 2005, when terrorists bombed a series of hotels, killing sixty people. West Bank. Palestinians in the West Bank went to the polls for municipal elections Saturday for the first municipal elections since 2005 and the first election of any kind since 2006. Abbas’ Fatah party was out-polled in five of the eleven main municipalities by lists composed of either former Fatah members now running independently, or other factions. Hamas boycotted the election. According to exit polling, more than one-third of voters listed jobs and economic conditions as their first concern. Post-election reactions have been mixed, with many Palestinians now calling for national elections. Nasser Lanham, editor-in-chief of the Maan News Agency said that “If there is no elections for the Parliament and the president, there will be a third intifada…We are talking about angry people, poor people. If they are not going to the elections, they have bad alternatives.” Lebanon. Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea yesterday accused Syria, Iran, and Hezbollah yesterday of exploding a powerful car bomb last Friday in a mostly Christian neighborhood in Beirut killing at least eight people including Major General Wissam al-Hassan, Lebanon’s top intelligence officer. Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah responded to Geagea’s comments, saying, “Any wise and patriotic [individual] would reject such comments that can only be welcomed by those who are willing to do a service to the Israeli enemy and its criminal plans.” Meanwhile, a U.S. FBI team arrived in Beirut yesterday to assist in the investigation at the Lebanese government’s request. The Lebanese army had deployed Monday to quell tensions following weekend protests which included gun battles in Beirut and Tripoli. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Gaza Strip. The emir of Qatar, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, visited Gaza Tuesday in the first visit by a head of state since Hamas violently took control of the territory in 2007. Entering Gaza from Egypt, Sheikh Hamad pledged four hundred million dollars in assistance to finance reconstruction projects. Yigat Palmor, a spokesman for the Israeli Foreign Ministry, said that the emir had “thrown peace under the bus” since his visit came just hours after a bombing from Gaza that wounded an Israeli soldier. Following the emir’s visit, Palestinian militants launched dozens of missiles into Israel that prompted Israeli retaliatory air strikes. Late Wednesday evening, Egypt managed to broker an informal truce between Hamas and Israel. Egypt. Egyptian president Mohammed Morsi met with various political factions Wednesday in an effort to forge unity around the draft constitution released last week. The meeting was boycotted by seventeen political parties and movements, including Mohammed el-Baradei and former presidential candidate Hamdeen Sabbahi. The consultations did not produce a compromise, and Morsi has said that he will resume working with groups to reach one after the Eid holiday. The Cairo Administrative Court announced on Tuesday that it was referring lawsuits challenging the composition of the Constituent Assembly to the Supreme Constitutional Court. The plaintiffs are challenging how the members of the Assembly, the panel responsible for drafting Egypt’s new constitution, were chosen. Yemen. Two senior Yemeni security officers were assassinated yesterday in a drive-by shooting in the city Damar, south of the capital Sana’a. Yemeni president Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi blamed Al Qaeda in a televised address late last night. This Week in History This week marks the fiftieth anniversary of the death of Enrico Mattei, the founder of the Italian energy company Eni. On October 27, 1962, Mattei died in an airplane crash, the cause of which remains unclear to this day, and was the subject of the 1972 Francesco Rosi film, The Mattei Affair. A partisan leader in the Italian resistance movement, Mattei helped create Eni after World War II to lead Italy’s energy sector. He was elected to represent the Christian Democrats in the first government formed by De Gasperi, only to resign in 1953 to become Eni’s president. Under Mattei, Eni developed the Po Valley in the late 1940s, and transformed it into the vast energy resource that fueled Italy’s post-war economic recovery. Internationally, Mattei helped break the oligopoly of the so-called “Seven-Sisters” that dominated the oil-industry, and took Eni into the Middle East, forging agreements with Tunisia, Morocco, Iran, and Egypt on favorable concessionary terms unheard of at the time. “The oil is theirs,” was Mattei’s famous motto, one that earned him disfavor with the other oil companies and Western countries at the time. Today, Eni is the world’s sixth largest oil company in the world with employees in 85 countries. In 2010, it endowed the Enrico Mattei Chair at CFR. It is my honor to be the first holder of the Enrico Mattei Chair. Today, Middle East Matters commemorates the fiftieth anniversary of its namesakes’ death.

The relationship between the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan and the West Bank, which it ruled from 1948 to 1967, remains in question despite the late King Hussein’s renunciation of all claims to the West Bank in an interesting address to the Jordanian people in 1988.  Here are excerpts:   Arab unity between any two or more countries is an option of any Arab people. This is what we believe. Accordingly, we responded to the wish of the Palestinian people’s representatives for unity with Jordan in 1950. From this premise, we respect the wish of the PLO, the sole and legitimate representative of the Palestinian people, to secede from us as an independent Palestinian state. We say that while we fully understand the situation, nevertheless, Jordan will remain the proud bearer of the message of the Great Arab Revolt, adhering to its principles, believing in one Arab destiny, and committed to joint Arab action. Regarding the political consideration, since the June 1967 aggression we have believed that our actions and efforts should be directed at liberating the land and the sanctities from Israeli occupation. Therefore, we have concentrated all our efforts over the past twenty-one years of occupation on that goal. We did not imagine that maintaining the legal and administrative relationship between the two banks could constitute an obstacle to liberating the occupied Palestinian land. Hence, in the past and before we took measures, we did not find anything requiring such measures, especially since our support for the Palestinian people’s right to self-determination was clear. Lately, it has transpired that there is a general Palestinian and Arab orientation which believes in the need to highlight the Palestinian identity in full in all efforts and activities that are related to the Palestine question and its developments. It has also become clear that there is a general conviction that maintaining the legal and administrative links with the West Bank, and the ensuing Jordanian interaction with our Palestinian brothers under occupation through Jordanian institutions in the occupied territories, contradicts this orientation. King Hussein’s argument suggests that if conditions were to change over time, and if the PLO were to change its view, the Jordanian role might also change.  (There is a separate argument that in any event the King’s decision is void as violating the Jordanian constitution.  Article 1 states "The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan is an independent sovereign Arab State. It is indivisible and inalienable and no part of it may be ceded." But neither Palestinian nor Jordanian leaders have spoken in public about a possible Jordanian role in the West Bank, and have often denounced any proposal for a link between the two as lending credibility to those Israelis who argue that "Jordan is Palestine." King Abdullah, the reigning monarch, said this in 2010: Jordan does not want any part of the West Bank. The only credible solution, is the two state solution. There is no Jordanian solution.... the Palestinians want their own state." In this context some October 9 remarks by Prince Hassan of Jordan, brother of the late King Hussein, are worth note.  Hassan is quoted in a MEMRI account of Jordanian press reports. The prince said that "the West Bank is part of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, which included both banks of the [Jordan] River" and added that Hassan "did not personally oppose the two state solution, but that this solution is irrelevant at the current stage." He later added that even if the two state solution does not materialize, there are other options. According to Hassan, "both sides, Arab and Israeli, no longer speak of a political solution to the Palestinian problem." He implied that even the Oslo Accords had met their end, and said that Arab losses from the Accords are estimated at $12 billion. The report added: "The attendees understood that Prince [Hassan] is working to reunite both banks of the [Jordan] River, and commended him for it." Prince Hassan later added: "The unity that existed between the west and east banks for 17 years... was arguably one of the best attempts at unity that ever occurred in the Arab [world]... I hope that I do not live to see the day when Jordan, or the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, relinquishes the land occupied in 1967 by the IDF, since it would bring us all to witness the humiliating end.... It remains to be seen whether this was a statement the prince now regrets making, and one that will never be repeated, or something more. As he has no position in the Jordanian government, he is ideally situated to put ideas such as these in circulation without suggesting that the Government of Jordan or King Abdullah II agree with anything he is saying. Yet his statement will inevitably lead to discussion on both banks of the Jordan about the future relationships between them--political as well as economic.

Significant Middle East Developments Egypt. Hundreds of people were injured today when supporters and opponents of Egyptian leader Mohammed Morsi clashed violently in Tahrir Square for the first time since the president took office in June. Morsi’s critics took to the streets primarily to demand a more representative Constituent Assembly, the body tasked with writing Egypt’s new constitution. They also protested the president’s performance to date. The Brotherhood supporters, in turn, protested Wednesday’s acquittal of twenty-four Mubarak regime figures accused of inciting the infamous camel attacks against protesters in Tahrir Square on February 2, 2011. Members of the Muslim Brotherhood-organized demonstration stormed a stage set-up by the liberal activists, while opposition supporters set fire to two empty buses belonging to the Muslim Brotherhood. Turkey-Syria. Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov stated today that the Syrian plane forced to land in Turkey while en route from Moscow to Damascus on Wednesday was legally carrying Russian duel use missile defense radar parts to Syria. Yesterday, Turkish prime minister Recep Erdogan claimed that the commercial jetliner carried Russian military tools, equipment, and ammunition in contravention of international law. Turkish war planes intercepted the Syrian aircraft on Wednesday and forced it to land in Ankara. Russia has demanded a detailed accounting of what Turkish officials found on the plane. Meanwhile, Turkey scrambled two fighter jets to the border today after a Syrian helicopter bombed a Syrian border town. Syria’s ambassador to the UN, Bashar al-Ja’afari, sent a communique Thursday night to the UN Security Council calling for a halt to “Turkish violations and provocations” and “unjustifiable aggressive behavior” in responding to Syrian shells that had fallen in Turkey last week. Turkish military chief General Necdet Ozel, speaking to troops along the Syrian border on Wednesday, threatened a stronger Turkish response if Syria’s shelling continues. Syrian rebels have escalated their offensive inside Syria in the past two days, capturing an air defense base near Aleppo and killing over one hundred regime soldiers. Israel. Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu called for early parliamentary elections on Tuesday after concluding that he could not pass the 2013 state budget. Two days later, Netanyahu proposed January 22, 2013 for Israel’s nineteenth general election. According to recent polls, the prime minister’s Likud party would increase the number of seats in parliament in the next vote. Legislation to dissolve the current parliament is expected to be put to a vote next week. Meanwhile, Israeli jets last Saturday shot down a drone flying over the southern part of the country.  Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah took credit for assembling and deploying the drone into Israel in a televised address on Thursday, calling it a milestone in the “history of the resistance.” U.S. Foreign Policy Libya. The House Oversight and Government Reform Committee held contentious hearings on Wednesday into the security situation at the U.S. consulate in Benghazi prior to the September 11 attack there that killed four American officials, including ambassador Chris Stevens. Eric Nordstrom, the former regional security officer at the U.S. embassy in Libya, told the hearing that he had been discouraged by officials at the State Department from requesting more military security support. Charlene Lamb, the deputy assistant secretary for international programs in the Bureau of Diplomatic Security, said that Nordstrom’s request would not have made a difference because it had asked to retain a special team that was stationed in Tripoli, not in Benghazi. Meanwhile, the new ambassador to Libya, Laurence Pope, arrived in Tripoli yesterday. Yemen. Qassem Aqlan, a Yemeni native who worked as a senior security investigator for the U.S. embassy in Sanaa, was shot and killed by masked gunmen on a motorcycle yesterday. State Department spokesperson Victoria Nuland denied initial reports that Aqlan had been investigating last month’s security breach when protesters broke through the compound’s outer perimeter. Aqlan had worked for the embassy for eleven years. Quotes of the Week “We have all necessary plans in place to protect and defend Turkey if necessary.” NATO secretary general Anders Fogh Rasmussen told reporters in Brussels on Tuesday “[Iran] is not seeking to invade anyone but will not succumb to any attack or act of aggression.” – Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said today “We [vow] to take the battle in Syria to the heart of the [Beirut] southern suburbs if [Hezbollah] does not stop supporting the killer Syrian regime.” – Fahd al-Masri, an FSA spokesman, told Asharq al-Awsat in an interview published Tuesday “If we leave Syria further, we will aggravate the situation more and more…Fanatics will emerge…We should not leave it until a stage where, God forbid, somebody calls for jihad, and then we cannot stop people coming from all directions.” – Khalid Bin Mohammad al-Attiyah, Qatar’s foreign minister said in an interview today While We Were Looking Elsewhere Libya. The International Criminal Court held its first public hearing in the case of Seif al-Islam, Moammar Qaddafi’s son, this week. The Libyan government argued before international judges in The Hague on Tuesday that Libya should be allowed to try Seif rather than hand him over to the ICC for prosecution. Ahmed Jihani, a Libyan lawyer, argued that it would be a “unique opportunity for national reconciliation.” Seif’s defense lawyers argued that he would not receive a fair trial in Libya. Jordan. King Abdullah swore in a 21-member caretaker cabinet yesterday after appointing reformist Abdullah Ensour prime minister on Wednesday. The king dissolved parliament and called for early elections last week. Ensour met with members of the IAF, the Muslim Brotherhood’s political arm as well as trade union leaders yesterday after the Muslim Brotherhood threatened to boycott the upcoming elections. Bahrain. Police fired teargas and stun grenades to break up hundreds of anti-government protesters in central Manama today. Ten people were reported arrested. A second protest of thousands, organized by the main opposition party al-Wefaq, unfolded outside the city without incident. This Week in History This week marks the thirty-ninth anniversary of the Yom Kippur/Ramadan War. On October 6, 1973, Egypt launched a coordinated surprise military attack with Syria against Israeli forces. In the initial phase, Egyptian forces breached the so-called Bar-Lev line and pushed Israeli forces back from the Suez Canal, recapturing parts of Sinai while Syrian forces broke through to the Golan Heights. After sustained fighting and heavy casulaties on both sides, Israel successfully turned the tide on the battlefield and rolled back Egypt and Syria’s initial gains. While Israel ultimately triumphed militarily, it was dealt a major psychological blow. The Israeli commission of inquiry set up to investigate Israel’s lack of preparedness for the war—the Agranat Commission—called for dismissal of a number of senior Israeli military officers, and helped precipitate the resignation of then prime minister Golda Minister. This past Saturday, current Egyptian president Mohammed Morsi used the occasion of the war’s anniversary to detail the purported successes of his first one hundred days in office to a crowd of sixty thousand assembled at the Cairo Stadium.

Significant Middle East Developments Turkey-Syria. Turkey returned fire into Syria today after a new Syrian shell landed in the Turkish town of Akcakale. Today’s fire exchange comes two days after Syrian artillery fire across the border killed five Turkish civilians--a women, her three children, and a relative. Yesterday, while not explicitly naming Syria, the parliament gave the Turkish government blanket authorization to conduct military operations across its borders for the remainder of the year. Turkish prime minister Recep Erdogan reaffirmed his desire for peace with Syria but added that testing Turkey would be a “fatal mistake.” Meanwhile, the UN Security Council approved a unanimous statement Thursday calling for an immediate end to such violations of international law and for Syria to “to fully respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of its neighbors.” Syrian ambassador to the UN Bashar Ja’afari said that the Syrian government had not apologized because it is waiting for the findings of an investigation into the situation. Syria did express condolences to the families and to the people of Turkey for the deaths. Ja’afari also called on Turkey to “act wisely, rationally and responsibly” and to prevent cross-border crossings of “terrorists and insurgents.” Inside Syria, warplanes bombed Homs today while four thousand Republican Guards stormed the Qudsaya suburb of Damascus. Rebels announced the capture of an air defense base with a cache of missiles outside of Damascus. Jordan. King Abdullah dissolved parliament yesterday paving the way for parliamentary elections expected early next year. The announcement came on the eve of an Islamist-led demonstration in Amman today calling upon the king to enact faster and more extensive democratic reforms. The turnout today was significantly lower than the fifty thousand that the IAF, the Muslim Brotherhood’s political party and the demonstration’s organizer, had expected. Yesterday, the Jordanian government cancelled a planned pro-government demonstration scheduled for the same time as today’s opposition protest to avoid clashes and violence. Jordanian police arrested eight individuals in the lead-up to today’s demonstration after finding guns in three minibuses headed into central Amman. Iran. Iran experienced its first significant public unrest in two years on Wednesday, when security forces clashed with money changers and protesters in the heart of Tehran. The demonstrations were spurred by anxieties after the Iranian rial experienced a 40 percent drop against the dollar in the past week. Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad blamed the fall on currency speculators and tied it to U.S.-led sanctions. At least sixteen people were arrested for trading excessively outside the banking system. With a heavier than normal police presence on the streets, merchants reopened for business on Thursday amongst relative calm. Libya. Libyan prime minister Mustafa Abushagur announced Friday that he would withdraw his proposed cabinet line-up, a day after over one hundred protesters stormed the General Assembly to voice discontent and forced the session’s delay. Once the Assembly reconvened late Thursday evening, it voted to reject the prime minister’s nominations. Meanwhile, an FBI investigative team from the U.S. finally reached Benghazi on Thursday, nearly one month after the site was attacked and four U.S. officials were killed. Quotes of the Week “This last incident is pretty much the final straw…There has been an attack on our land and our citizens lost their lives, which surely has adequate response in international law.” – Turkish deputy prime minister Bulent Arinc said on Wednesday after Syrian mortar fire killed five civilians in Turkey “Maybe we have some violations from time to time, but it is not a widespread phenomenon.” – Ghazi Hamad, Hamas’ deputy foreign minister told the BBC regarding Human Rights Watch recent report on Gaza “Iran is overcoming the psychological war and conspiracy that the enemy has brought to the currency and gold market and this war is constantly fluctuating.” – Gholam Ali Haddad Adel, a close Khamenei ally, said according to Fars news agency While We Were Looking Elsewhere Tunisia.  Protesters today stormed the seat of local government in Sidi Bouzid where the first revolution of the Arab uprisings began. Sidi Bouzid, where fruit seller Mohammad Buazizi immolated himself and set off nation-wide protests in late 2010, has seen periodic demonstrations since. Meanwhile, interim president Moncef Marzouki apologized today to a woman raped by two police officers and then charged with indecent behavior last September. The president received the woman and her fiancé at the presidential palace today and called the police officers’ behavior an aberration. Gaza. Human Rights Watch released a report on Wednesday accusing Hamas’ security forces of committing severe abuses, including torture of detainees, execution after forced confessions, warrantless arrests, and subjecting civilians to military courts. Deputy Middle East Director of HRW, Joe Stork, said that “after five years of Hamas rule in Gaza, its criminal justice system reeks of injustice, routinely violates detainees’ rights, and grants impunity to abusive security service.” Yemen. The U.S. State Department added Yemeni group Ansar al-Sharia to its list of terrorist organizations yesterday. A released statement called Ansar al-Sharia a rebranding attempt by Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula in order to recruit more people. The UN’s Al Qaeda sanctions committee also listed Ansar al-Sharia as a terrorist group. The Southern Movement, an alliance of Yemeni groups that want independence for the southern part of the country, declared on Wednesday that they would not attend a national dialogue proposed for next month by the government. Iraq. Iraq experienced another wave of bombings on Sunday, capping the deadliest month in over two years. Insurgents coordinated attacks in various cities that targeted Shiite neighborhoods and security forces, killing twenty-six people and wounding at least ninety-four. This Week in History This week marks the eightieth anniversary of Iraq’s independence from Britain. On October 3, 1932,  Iraq was admitted to the League of Nations as an independent state ruled by the monarch King Faysal. However, British troops did not complete their withdrawal from Iraq until after World War II. The monarchy fell in 1958 to revolutionary forces led by General Abd al-Karim who proclaimed Iraq a republic. Members of the royal family, including the king and the crown prince, as well as Nuri as-Said, who had served as prime minister, were all killed.

Significant Middle East Developments Libya. U.S. deputy secretary of state William Burns flew into Tripoli today to meet with Libyan officials and to attend a ceremony in honor of Ambassador Chris Stevens and the three other Americans killed last week in Benghazi. Burns met with Foreign Minister Ashur Ben Khayal, Prime Minister Mustafa Abu Shagur and Mohammed al-Megaryef, head of the national assembly. Foreign Minister Kayal apologized for the violence and called Stevens a “friend of Libya.” Libyan authorities have arrested fifty suspects and blamed foreigners for the attack on the U.S. consulate. Matthew G. Olsen, director of the National Counterterrorism Center, called last week’s assault on the U.S. consulate a “terrorist attack” and said that there is evidence of the involvement of extremists from eastern Libya and Al Qaeda affiliates. A team of FBI agents arrived in Libya on Tuesday to investigate. Syria.  Violence escalated further in Syria this week, capped by the army’s bombing today of a gas station outside of Ain Issa that killed at least fifty people and wounded dozens more. The attack followed the downing of a helicopter earlier in the day by the opposition and a recent surge of violence in Damascus and along the Syrian-Turkish border. Syrian rebels seized control of a key border crossing with Turkey yesterday.  On the diplomatic front, the ‘Friends of Syria’ met today in the Netherlands to call on the UN Security Council to deny the Assad regime the resources “for its campaign against its own people.”  Yesterday, Iranian foreign minister Ali Akbar Salehi met with President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus. Salehi was in Cairo earlier in the week for the first meeting of the “Islamic Quartet,” consisting of Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. Meanwhile the German publication Der Spiegel reported Monday that the Syrian army had tested delivery mechanisms for chemical weapons in August. Egypt. President Morsi issued a decree today laying down the authorities of his recently appointed vice-president Mahmoud Mekki. On Wednesday, Morsi has appointed Mohammed Raafat Abdel Wahed as the new intelligence chief. Wahed was instrumental in negotiating last year’s deal between Hamas and Israel freeing Israel’s Corporal Gilad Schalit.  Last Saturday, after days of inactivity, Morsi’s government finally deployed Egyptian security forces to clear Tahrir Square and arrest hundreds of protesters around the U.S. embassy. Meanwhile, U.S. ambassador to Egypt Anne Patterson denied rumors that an aid package promised by Obama had been withdrawn and stated that the United States understands the importance of relations with Egypt. Iran. Saed Jalili, Iran’s top nuclear negotiator, met with the EU’s foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton in Istanbul on Tuesday in their first face-to-face meeting since June. Ashton called the lengthy dinner meeting “constructive” and said that they had agreed to talk again after she meets counterparts of the P5+1 group at the opening session of the United Nations General Assembly next week. Iran and the IAEA are also looking to resume talks in mid-October, despite accusations by Iran’s chief atomic scientist, Fereydoun Abbasi-Davan, that the IAEA is infiltrated by “terrorists and saboteurs.” Abbasi also revealed that explosions had targeted power supplies to Iran’s two main uranium enrichment facilities on August 17. Lebanon. Thousands of Hezbollah supporters marched in Tyre on Wednesday just hours after gunmen fired at a KFC, the second branch of the restaurant targeted in the past week. The protest followed Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah’s call for massive demonstrations at a rare public speech attended by tens of thousands in Beirut’s southern suburbs on Monday. Nasrallah warned the United States against broadcasting the full version of the film, Innocence of Muslims.  Meanwhile, a Sunni cleric, Ahmed al-Assir, has called for further protests in Beirut on Friday. The U.S. embassy in Beirut has reportedly begun destroying classified materials as a precautionary measure. Tunisia. The State Department ordered the evacuation of all non-essential U.S. government personnel from Tunisia on Saturday. The evacuation order followed an eruption of violence last Friday night when protesters attacked the U.S. embassy and torched the American school in Tunis. At least three Tunisians were killed and twenty-eight injured. Quotes of the Week “We are against the killing of the ambassador as he has not committed a crime to be killed for but if America uses this as an excuse, Libya will be an inferno for U.S. troops.” – Yousef Jehani, a senior member of Ansar al-Sharia, a Libyan militant Islamist group, said on Tuesday “It’s a bigger group than the Muslim Brotherhood. It’s much bigger…If we have access to 5 million members, they probably have access to 30 million people. The difference is huge.” – a Freedom and Justice Party official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to candidly discuss party strategy regarding Salafist groups in Egypt “America, which uses the pretext of freedom of expression ... needs to understand that putting out the whole film will have very grave consequences around the world.”  – Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah said in an address to tens of thousands in Beirut on Monday “Terrorists and saboteurs might have intruded the agency and might be making decisions covertly.” – Iranian nuclear energy chief Fereydoun Abbasi-Davan said at the annual member state gathering of the International Atomic Energy Agency on Monday “There has been no strategy in place to remove the weapons from the streets…There has been no strategy to contain these [militias] and to move them into either the police or the army.” - Hussein Abu Hameida, the head of security in Libya’s second-largest city, said on Wednesday after he was sacked While We Were Looking Elsewhere Jordan. King Abdullah of Jordan endorsed a controversial new media law on Monday that restricts online media. Four hundred news websites operated by Jordanians will be required to register and obtain licenses from the government. Editors will also be held accountable for anything published on their websites. Meanwhile, Abdullah also issued a royal decree this week suspending Parliament week amidst rumors that a new prime minster and government, the fifth since the Arab uprising began, may be announced soon. Iraq. Senator John Kerry, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, suggested on Wednesday that U.S. aid to Iraq may become contingent on cutting off Iranian over-flights carrying military supplies to the Assad regime. The administration has protested such flights that pass through Iraqi airspace without inspection. Kerry spoke during the confirmation hearing for Robert Stephen Beecroft, the U.S. ambassador designate for Iraq. Kerry said that “It just seems completely inappropriate that we’re trying to help build their democracy, support them, put American lives on the line, money into the country, and they’re working against our interest so overtly.” Palestine. Chief negotiator Saeb Erekat said today that the Palestinian Authority is preparing its bid for nonmember observer state status in the UN General Assembly but added that the PA was unlikely to press ahead until after the U.S. presidential elections in November.  Over the weekend, Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas mentioned the possibility of abrogating the Oslo Accords and its associated economic and security arrangements, according to PLO Executive Committee member Wassel Abu Yusef. The Palestinians will reportedly discuss such a measure after Abbas returns from the UN General Assembly meetings slated for next week.  Both President Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu are slated to address the assembly on Thursday, September 27. Bahrain. Bahrain’s government pledged to uphold human rights yesterday as Foreign Minister Sheikh Khalid bin Ahmed bin Mohammed Al Khalifa told the United Nations Human Rights Council that Bahrain will implement one hundred and fifty-eight out of one hundred and seventy-six of the measures proposed by the international body.  Khalifa went on to say that “Our actions, more than our words, should dispel any doubts regarding my government’s commitment to upholding human rights through the rule of law…Let us follow the path of dialogue, not propaganda.” Bahrain rejected the call for it to abolish capital punishment. This Week in History This week marks the thirty-fourth anniversary of the Camp David accords, which led to the peace treaty signed the following year between Egypt and Israel. On September 17, 1978, Egyptian President Anwar Sadat and Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin signed the “Framework for Peace in the Middle East” at the White House following nearly two weeks of non-stop negotiations at the Camp David presidential retreat.  The agreement, brokered by President Jimmy Carter, laid out a framework for a peace treaty between Egypt and Israel, called for a process for Palestinian self-government in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, and peace treaties between Israel and its other neighbors. The resulting peace treaty has come to form a cornerstone of U.S. policy in the Middle East.

Significant Middle East Developments Lebanon. Renewed clashes broke out today in Lebanon’s northern city of Tripoli between Sunnis and Alawites, despite a ceasefire brokered yesterday. Since fighting first erupted four days ago, fifteen people have died and nearly one hundred have been injured. Prime Minister Najib Mikati voiced concern on Wednesday over "efforts to drag Lebanon more and more into the conflict in Syria when what is required is for leaders to cooperate ... to protect Lebanon from the danger.” This week’s clashes follow an outbreak of violence in June that killed fifteen people in addition to a number of retaliatory kidnappings of Lebanese citizens in Syria and Syrians residing in Lebanon. Syria. Syrian tanks and troops today swept into Daraya, a town near Damascus, after a twenty-four hour assault with artillery and helicopter gunships. Fifteen residents were killed in the attack with over 150 people wounded, bringing the total number of Syrians killed today to over 100. Over 200 people were killed across the country yesterday. This followed Monday and Tuesday’s attacks on the Damascus suburb of Moudamiya in which 86 people were killed. Amidst the violence, the Syrian government announced it was ready to cooperate with the new UN envoy, Lakdhar Brahimi, who took up the post previously held by Kofi Annan. Syrian deputy foreign minister Faisal Muqdad told reporters in Damascus today that “we have informed the United Nations that we accept the appointment of Mr. Brahimi” and hoped the envoy would help pave the way for a “national dialogue.” Meanwhile, Russian media reported Wednesday that Moscow had received guarantees that Syria would not use its chemical weapons. President Obama, along with British prime minister David Cameron, had reiterated their stance that Syria’s use of chemical weapons was “completely unacceptable” and that the United States would be forced to pursue a new course of action if Syria threatened to use them. The UN also pointed its finger at Iran over its arm supplies to Syria with UN undersecretary Jeffrey Feltman telling the Security Council that "The secretary-general has repeatedly expressed his concern about the arms flows to the two parties in Syria, which in some cases appear to violate resolution 1747 passed by this council banning arms exports under Chapter 7 authority." Despite this, reports emerged yesterday that UN secretary general Ban Ki-Moon plans to attend a summit meeting of non-aligned developing nations next week in Tehran, defying the wishes of the United States and Israel. Egyptian president Morsi will also attend, making him the first Egyptian head of state to visit Tehran since the Islamic revolution in 1979. Egypt. An Egyptian military source reported yesterday that Israeli and Egyptian officials have been meeting at the Kerem Shalom crossing to discuss Egypt’s military buildup in the Sinai. Israel publicly denies that Egypt has violated the terms of the Camp David agreement, limiting Egyptian military activity on the Sinai, though some Israeli officials accuse Egypt of moving tanks and other equipment without authorization. Israel’s defense ministry and military have sent a number of messages to Cairo in recent days with the a senior defense ministry official, Amos Gilad, saying yesterday that "When the Egyptians introduce weapons that are not included in the agreement we check it and we talk to the Egyptians about it. We have direct communication with the Egyptians and we have made it clear that we demand a complete adherence to the terms of the peace agreement.” The Sinai buildup, taken with President Morsi’s upcoming visit to Iran next week, has raised concern in Israel given the centrality of Israel’s peace treaty with Egypt to its regional security. Meanwhile, IMF managing director Christine Lagarde visited Egypt this week to discuss economic cooperation. The Egyptian government has requested a $4.8 billion loan from the IMF in an effort to restore an economy still reeling from the political turmoil that ousted former president Hosni Mubarak last year. Finally, an Egyptian presidential spokesman announced today that President Morsi will visit the United States on September 23. Morsi will reportedly visit New York to attend the United Nations General Assembly and then visit Washington. U.S. Foreign Policy Developments Syria Planning in Turkey. Turkish and U.S. officials began their first “operational planning” discussions yesterday over the Syrian crisis in Ankara. The United States sent an interagency team with officials from the State Department, Department of Defense, and the intelligence community. This latest round of consultations follows Secretary Hillary Clinton’s announcement on August 11 from Turkey that the United States was adopting a new approach to the Syrian crisis by pursuing joint efforts with Turkish officials. State Department spokesperson Victoria Nuland said on Tuesday: "[R]emember what the secretary committed to when she was in Istanbul, which was an interagency conversation, U.S. and Turkey sitting down together to share operational picture, to talk about the effectiveness of what we’re doing now, and about what more we can do." Nuland added: "We are doing training on free media, countering the government’s circumvention technology, legal and justice and accountability issues, and how to deal with the crimes that have been committed during this conflict, programs for student activists who are encouraging peaceful protest on the university campuses, programs for women." Regional Naval Buildup. This week Defense Secretary Leon Panetta told members of the USS Stennis aircraft carrier crew that they were needed back in the Middle East. The Navy News Service reported that the crew’s home stay was being cut short so as to respond to the increased concerns in Iran and Syria. At a send-off event in Seattle on Wednesday, Panetta highlighted the need to keep Iran’s nuclear program in check as well as its threats to oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Panetta also pointed to the need to keeping an eye on Syria’s chemical and biological weapons and provide non-lethal aid to the Syrian opposition. Quotes of the Week “Egypt is the cornerstone of the region and has a special stature in the Arab and Muslim countries ... and we want relations of friendship and brotherhood with it,” – Iranian foreign minister Ali Akbar Salehi in an interview published Tuesday "Haniya and (exiled Hamas chief) Khaled Meshal are leading armed terrorism, Abu Mazen leads diplomatic terrorism and I’m not sure which is more dangerous to us," – Israeli foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman in a letter to European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton on Thursday "We have to demand that all sides in the [Syria] conflict rigorously respect international humanitarian law which as we can see has fallen apart due to the fault of both warring sides," – Vatican envoy to Syria Mario Zenari told Vatican radio on Wednesday "The arrogant powers are pulling their weight to force Iran to back down (on its stances) and the government should invalidate these illusions by using the nation’s full potentials," – Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Thursday in response to Western sanctions on Iran when he called for an “economy of resistance” While We Were Looking Elsewhere Libya. A spokesperson for the prosecution announced today that slain former Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi’s son, Seif al-Islam, will be put on trial in September in the Libyan town of Zintan. The International Criminal Court had issued a warrant for Seif’s arrest for crimes against humanity committed during the uprising that ousted his father. However, Libyan authorities have insisted that Seif stand trial in Libya. He has been held in Zintan since November. Bahrain. A judge overturned a conviction against the noted Bahraini human rights activist Nabeel Rajab today. Rajab had been convicted of posting alleged anti-government statements on Twitter. Rajab remains in jail, however, as he is currently appealing another three-year prison sentence for allegedly encouraging demonstrators to clash with security forces. Tunisia. A group of demonstrators, comprised of journalists and opposition activists, gathered in front of government headquarters yesterday to protest the appointment of a former police chief to lead the state-operated Dar Assabah media group. The protesters accused the government of attempting to control the media in order to influence the country’s upcoming elections. This Week in History This week marks the two hundredth anniversary of Petra, the wondrous UNESCO World Heritage archeological site in Jordan. The “rose-red city half as old as time” was once the capital of the Nabataeans, who are believed to have built the city in the fourth century BC. Petra was discovered by twenty-seven year-old Swiss explorer Johann Ludwig Burckhardt in 1812. Burckhardt originally sought to uncover the source of the River Niger. To pursue that effort, he secured funding from Sir Joseph Banks of the Royal Society and studied Arabic. Burckhardt traveled around Syria, Lebanon, and Petra referring to himself as Sheikh Ibrahim Ibn Abdallah. When he heard of ruins in the mountains from locals, he paid a local guide to take him to the ancient site of Petra. Never discovering the River Niger, Burckhardt passed away from dysentery in Cairo in 1817. Today, Petra is Jordan’s most visited tourist site. Statistic of the Week Egypt has seen a wave of sexual harassment this week with thirty-two people being arrested over the course of three days. Various activists and anti-harassment campaigns are calling for a greater crackdown on the harassment with enforcement of harsher penalties. This spate of incidents underscores a previous finding from the Egyptian Center for Women’s Rights which reported that nearly two-thirds of Egyptian men admitted to having sexually harassed women with only 2.4 percent of women reporting incidents to the police.

Amin Shalabi wonders if history will repeat itself in the U.S.-Egypt relationship. Alison Pargeter offers the deeper story on Islamism in Libya on Open Democracy. Amer Al Sabaileh discusses Jordan’s imminent challenges running up to its elections.

Significant Middle East Developments Annan Resignation. Kofi Annan, the UN and Arab League envoy for Syria, tendered his resignation today, having served in the position since late February. In a statement announcing that Annan was stepping down at the end of the month when his mandate expires, UN secretary general Ban Ki-Moon said: “The hand extended to turn away from violence in favor of dialogue and diplomacy—as spelled out in the Six-Point Plan—has not been taken, even though it still remains the best hope for the people of Syria.” Ban announced that he was already working with the Arab League to find a successor to Annan, though it is hard to see who would undertake that mission without some fundamental change in either its mandate or the circumstances on the ground. Ban blamed both the Syrian government, the opposition, and the security council itself for Annan’s lack of success: “Both the government and the opposition forces continue to demonstrate their determination to rely on ever-increasing violence. In addition, the persistent divisions within the Security Council have themselves become an obstacle to diplomacy, making the work of any mediator vastly more difficult.” Annan himself, speaking to reporters, expressed expaspiration, saying, “You have to understand: as an envoy, I can’t want peace more than the protagonists, more than the Security Council, or the international community for that matter.” Annan pointed to the core weakness of his mission by saying that “without serious, purposeful, and united international pressure, including from the powers of the region, it is impossible for me or anyone to compel the Syrian government in the first place, and also the opposition, to take the steps necessary to begin a political process." Syria. Fighting continued to escalate in Aleppo, with the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reporting today that mobile phone and internet service have been cut off. Syria’s military has reportedly used fighter jets to fire on Syria’s largest city. In a development that could fundamentally alter the course of future fighting, NBC News reported on Tuesday that the rebel Free Syrian Army had acquired nearly two dozen surface-to-air missiles or, MANPADs--man-portable air-defense systems--delivered via Turkey. The United States has denied providing the weapons. Meanwhile, a UN spokesperson announced yesterday that opposition forces have for the first time acquired “tanks” and “heavy weapons.” Violence raged elsewhere in Syria, including near Damascus and on the Turkish border. The daily average number of Syrians killed in the last week was 208. For a statistical breakdown of Syria’s bloodshed over the past seventeen months, see my previous blog, “Syria By the Numbers.” Meanwhile, France’s efforts to organize a ministerial-level Security Council meeting on Syria at the UN were delayed to avoid clashing with the Arab League’s efforts in the UN General Assembly to adopt a resolution calling upon Assad to hand over power to a transitional government. Egypt. Egypt’s prime minister Hisham Qandil formally announced a new cabinet today as part of Egypt’s slow effort to shape a new government under President Mohammad Morsi. The announced cabinet includes more technocrats than Islamists, and retains at least six ministers from ousted president Hosni Mubarak’s regime, including Defense Minister General Mohamad Hussen Tantawi. The struggle over Egypt’s constitution was temporarily suspended on Monday when a court deferred until September the next step in a legal row that had threatened to dissolve the body tasked with writing it. Plaintiffs opposed to what they see as the Islamists’ overwhelming influence in the 100-person constitutional assembly had brought the case, demanding the body be dissolved on the grounds it had been formed illegally. Despite the allegations, the constituent assembly has resolved to continue writing the constitution between now and September 24 when the case is slated to be heard. Meanwhile, Israel released a copy of a letter on Tuesday sent to President Shimon Peres via Egypt’s embassy in Tel Aviv from President Morsi in which the Egyptian leader wrote, “I am looking forward to exerting our best efforts to get the Middle East peace process back to its right track in order to achieve security and stability for all peoples of the region, including the Israeli people.” Soon after the letter appeared in the Israeli press, presidential spokesman for President Morsi, Yasser Ali, denied the reports, claiming, “There is no truth to these (reports). President Morsi did not send an letter to the Israeli president.” U.S. Foreign Policy Developments Panetta visits the region. U.S. defense secretary Leon Panetta traveled to the Middle East this week, the latest in a series of recent visits by senior administration officials. Panetta arrived in Jordan today where he met with King Abdullah and reportedly discussed “a post-Bashar al-Assad Syria.” Pentagon spokesperson George Little said in a statement that "the United States will work with Jordan to explore ways to continue to provide humanitarian aid to those affected by violence in Syria.” Yesterday, Panetta met with Israeli officials and reportedly stressed that if economic sanctions do not work to compel Iran to end its nuclear program, the United States would consider military options. Panetta described the most recent round of Iran sanctions as the “toughest Iran has ever faced” and said  “the most effective way to stop Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon is for the international community to be united, proving to Iran that it will only make itself less secure if it continues to try to pursue a nuclear weapon.” Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu told reporters that "America and Israel have also made clear that all options are on the table. You yourself said a few months ago that when all else fails, America will act. But these declarations have also not yet convinced the Iranians to stop their program." Panetta then responded: "We will not allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon, period. We will not allow them to develop a nuclear weapon, and we will exert all options in the effort to ensure that that does not happen." Earlier in the week, Panetta visited Egypt and met president Morsi and Field Marshall Tantawi, praising Egypt’s commitment to democratic reforms. Romney in Israel. Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney visited Israel earlier this week as a part of a three-nation overseas tour, which also took him to Great Britain and Poland. Following meetings with Israel’s leaders, Romney gave a speech in which he said it was a “moving experience to be in Jerusalem,” identifying the city as Israel’s capital. On the United States-Israel relationship, he said "We serve the same cause and we have the same enemies. The security of Israel is a national security interest of the United States." On Monday, Romney sparked Palestinian anger when he compared Israel and the Palestinian Authority’s per capita economic output, saying: “And as you come here and you see the GDP per capita, for instance, in Israel, which is about $21,000, and you compare that with the GDP per capita just across the areas managed by the Palestinian Authority, which is more like $10,000 per capita, you notice a dramatic, stark difference in economic vitality." Romney cited Harvard professor David Landes’ “The Wealth and Poverty of Nations,” to explain economic history suggesting, in understanding why some civilizations have grown and others declined, that “culture makes all the difference.” In response, Saeb Erekat, aide to Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas, lashed out, saying: "It is a racist statement and this man doesn’t realize that the Palestinian economy cannot reach its potential because there is an Israeli occupation.” Iran Sanctions. Congress passed a new package of strong sanctions on Iran. The House voted 421-6 to send the measure to the Senate, where the bill received unanimous support. Chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen said the legislation "seeks to tighten the chokehold on the regime beyond anything that has been done before." Quotes of the Week "I was convinced that President Morsi is his own man and... that he is truly committed to implementing democratic reforms here in Egypt," -- U.S. defense secretary Panetta following his meeting with Egyptian president Morsi on Tuesday "In that case, new arrivals could be housed inside Syria. Imagine 10,000 people are fleeing toward Turkey and tanks open fire on them from the Syrian side. What do you do in that case? Do you remain a spectator?" – Turkish foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu on Sunday "If Aleppo falls, then automatically we are going to establish headquarters at the presidential palace," -- Burhan Ghalioun, member of the Syrian National Council late Wednesday in Paris "There is still no need for Syria’s circle of friends to fully enter the arena, and our assessment is that there will be no need to do so," – Iranian brigadier general Masoud Jazayeri reportedly said on Tuesday While We Were Looking Elsewhere Bahrain. The U.S.-based human rights group Physicians for Human Rights published this week a report entitled “Weaponizing Tear Gas” criticizing the Bahraini monarchy’s use of tear gas. Based on dozens of interviews of victims and evidence gathered by the group in Bahrain in April, the report claims that in the 100-year history of tear gas, “there is no other example where a country has continually assaulted its people with this toxic chemical.”  The report acknowledges that official Bahraini authorities conducted a highly critical inquiry last year on the government’s rampant tear gas use, but it claims that the authorities’ promised improvements were never implemented. Yemen. Police officers and gunmen loyal to Ali Abdullah Saleh, Yemen’s ousted leader, stormed the Interior Ministry on Tuesday, killing fifteen and wounding forty-three. The police officers had been demonstrating outside of the building since Sunday, accusing the new government of corruption. The Saleh loyalists remained in control of the building hours after they stormed it, as well as the surrounding neighborhood. Iraq. Twin car bombings in Baghdad claimed nineteen lives and left at least forty-seven people injured on Tuesday. Al-Qaeda’s local affiliate, the Islamic State of Iraq, claimed responsibility for the attacks. July was the deadliest month in Iraq in almost two years, with 325 people killed in attacks, according to official figures released on Wednesday. This Week in History This week in history marks the twenty-second anniversary of Iraq’s invasion and occupation of Kuwait. Although Kuwait had been an ally of Iraq during the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s, Iraqi forces invaded Kuwait on August 2, 1990, claiming that Kuwait had been part of Iraq prior to the signing of the Anglo-Ottoman Convention in 1913 and the British occupation. Within two days of intense combat,  the Iraqi Republican Guard overran most of the Kuwaiti Armed Forces, and Saddam Hussein appointed a de facto provisional government in Kuwait.  Iraq subsequently occupied Kuwait for seven months until it was driven out by a United States-led international coalition that liberated the country in what became known as the first Gulf War. Statistic of the Week UN agencies announced today that as the Syrian crisis rages on, up to three million Syrians are likely to need food, crop, and livestock aid in the next year given that the violence has prevented farmers from harvesting crops. This includes 1.5 million Syrians who “need urgent and immediate food assistance over the next three to six months, especially in areas that have seen the greatest conflict and population displacement.”

Significant Middle East Developments Egypt. After days of delay, Egyptian election officials announced on Sunday that Mohamed Morsi had won 52 percent of the runoff vote and would become Egypt’s next president. Hours after being declared the winner, Morsi said that he would “be a president for all Egyptians” and called for national unity. Morsi, Egypt’s first Islamist and first fairly-elected president, resigned from the Muslim Brotherhood to take up the post. He moved into deposed president Mubarak’s old office on Monday to begin work on forming a new government. After Morsi’s meeting with the ruling military council on Monday, Field Marshal Tantawi announced that the military will “stand by the elected, legitimate president and will cooperate with him for the stability of the country.” A member of the military council today announced that seventy-six year-old Field Marshall Tantawi will remain defense minister in the new government. In another significant event on Tuesday, Egypt’s civilian judiciary suspended the military-led government’s decree that authorized soldiers to arrest civilians. The ruling marked the first time a civilian court has challenged the power of the military council. Syria. The British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights has called the period between June 20 and June 26 the “Bloodiest Week” of the Syrian uprising, claiming that over nine hundred people were killed. Observatory director Rami Abdel Rahmen said that of the more than 15,800 people killed since last March, more than four thousand had died following the UN-backed ceasefire that was slated to take effect on April 12. The pace of killing has rapidly escalated; at mid-day today, a bomb exploded at the Justice Palace, just outside the walls of the historic Old City in an usually crowded area. While no one was killed, the bombing underscores the extent to which violence has taken hold in the heart of the Syrian capital. Rebel gunmen yesterday attacked Al-Ikhbariya, a privately-owned pro-Assad TV station, killing over a half dozen employees and kidnapping many others. In response to the deteriorating situation, Peace Envoy Kofi Annan called for the international community to convene an “action group” in Geneva on Saturday. The meeting will include the permanent members of the UN Security Council, emissaries from the European Union, and from the Arab League. Significantly, both Iran and Saudi Arabia were not included, following a flurry of backroom diplomatic wrangling. At the meeting, Annan reportedly plans to put forward his proposal for a Syrian “interim government” that would include members from both sides of the country’s war. U.S. secretary of state Hillary Clinton said she had been in regular contact with Annan over his transition plan and claimed that the proposal “embodies the principles needed for any political transition in Syria that could lead to a peaceful, democratic and representative outcome reflecting the will of the Syrian people.” Putin’s Middle East Tour. Russian president Vladimir Putin visited Israel, the West Bank, and Jordan this week. In a meeting with Israeli leaders, Putin acknowledged that Iran’s nuclear program poses a grave global threat. He nonetheless reaffirmed his opposition to further sanctions against Iran, insisting that there is no hard proof Tehran seeks to become a nuclear power. In the West Bank, Putin praised Mahmoud Abbas for his “responsible position” in negotiations with Israel and offered veiled criticism toward the latter saying “unilateral actions are not constructive.” Putin ended his trip with a meeting with King Abdullah II of Jordan, where officials said he discussed ways to end the uprising in Syria, restart Palestinian-Israeli peace talks, and address the threat of Iran’s nuclear program. Russia also offered to help Jordan build a nuclear reactor for peaceful purposes and modernize an oil terminal in the Gulf of Aqaba. The Russian leader’s 48-hour Middle East visit was seen by regional commentators as part of an effort to polish Russia’s tarnished reputation at a time when many Western and Arab countries have criticized Moscow’s steadfast support for Syria’s Bashar al-Assad. While Russia plans to participate in Saturday’s “action group” in Geneva, it continues to oppose any transition plan contingent on Mr. Assad’s departure. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had called for Iran to participate in the talks, though appears to have relented when the United States threatened to skip any meeting with Iranian participation. Turkey. Tensions between Ankara and Damascus continued to increase following Syria’s shoot-down of a Turkish Phantom 4 fighter jet last Friday. Turkish foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu said that pilots were testing the jet’s radar capabilities and that it “was shot down over international waters several minutes after it had left Syrian airspace." The two pilots of the jet have not yet been found and search efforts continue. Damascus claimed the plane was shot down while flying one mile off of the Syrian coast. On Sunday, the Turkish Foreign Ministry dubbed the incident “a hostile act” and sent a diplomatic note to Syria saying that under international law, Turkey “reserves the right to respond.” NATO condemned the downing of the jet on Tuesday with NATO chief Anders Rasmussen saying "We consider this act to be unacceptable and condemn it in the strongest terms." Rasmussen refused to suggest any possible NATO action, however. Syria’s information minister claimed on Wednesday that its country’s forces may have mistaken the Turkish plane for an Israeli aircraft and said that Syria does not want a crisis between Turkey and Syria. Turkish prime minister Erdogan said yesterday that "as Turkey, the Turkish nation, we have no intention of attacking." Today, Turkish state television reported today that Turkey had deployed anti-aircraft guns and other weapons along its border with Syria. Noteworthy U.S. Foreign Policy Developments Egypt. Hours after Sunday’s announcement of Mohamed Morsi’s election victory, President Obama called the president-elect to congratulate him. According to a White House statement, "The president underscored that the United States will continue to support Egypt’s transition to democracy and stand by the Egyptian people as they fulfill the promise of their revolution." In a somewhat unusual move, Obama also called the defeated candidate, Ahmed Shafik, to encourage him to stay involved in Egypt’s political scene. A separate White House statement reported, "The president emphasized his interest in working together with the new Egyptian president and all Egyptian political groups to advance the shared interests between the United States and Egypt." On Wednesday, Secretary of State Clinton told reporters in Helsinki that the United States was pleased with the commitments Morsi had made so far though she would reserve judgment on his government until it was in place and governing the country. Clinton added, “We expect the transition to continue as has been promised by the (military) and we expect president-elect Morsi, as he forms a government, to demonstrate a commitment to inclusivity that is manifest by representatives of the women of Egypt, of the Coptic Christian community, of the secular non-religious community and, of course, young people.” Rumors continued to swirl around Washington about an impending high-level U.S. official visit to meet Morsi in Cairo. Quotes of the Week "We must restore normal relations with Iran based on shared interests, and expand areas of political coordination and economic cooperation because this will create a balance of pressure in the region." – Egyptian president-elect Mohamed Morsi on Monday "Even if the plane was in their airspace for a few seconds, that is no excuse to attack." – Turkish prime minister Erdogan on Tuesday “Where previously victims were targeted on the basis of their being pro- or anti-government, the Commission of Inquiry has recorded a growing number of incidents where victims appear to have been targeted because of their religious affiliation." -- UN commission report released on Wednesday "Hezbollah congratulates the great people of Egypt for this historic election." – statement by Hezbollah released on Monday While We Were Looking Elsewhere Iran. Iran’s official news agency IRNA reported Wednesday that Tehran will prepare a new road map for upcoming technical talks with other leading world powers in Istanbul next Tuesday. The last round of nuclear negotiations between Iran and the so-called P5+1 group--Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia, and the United States--were convened last week in Moscow, but ended without any results or firm agreement to a follow-on meeting. Jordan. King Abdullah II called today for parliament to amend a controversial electoral law after opposition Islamists threatened to boycott general polls expected to be held by end of this year. The law, which requires the king’s approval to go into effect, raises the number of parliamentary seats to 140 from 120, and expands the quota for women to 15 from 12. The Muslim Brotherhood have said they plan to boycott the elections, describing the law as “provocative.” A palace statement released today said, “the king asked parliament today to hold an extraordinary session early next month to amend some articles in the electoral law to help ensure wider public participation in the process.” Lebanon. Shiite  gunmen and supporters of Syria’s president Assad erected roadblocks, burned tires, and fired into the air indiscriminately early Tuesday morning in downtown Beirut.  The attacks were believed to be in retaliation for the arrest of a Shiite Lebanese man for firebombing and shooting into the offices of NewTV, a Lebanon station that has been critical of the Damascus government. Karma Khayat, the deputy head of news for New TV, said that political leaders from the Hezbollah and Amal parties visited the station after the attack to assure officials there that they had not approved of the attack. However, Khayat said those who took to the streets after the arrest were supporters of the Shiite parties, even if not officially connected to them, and alleged that their actions were coordinated. The incidents raised renewed concern that sectarian strife would spillover from Syria into Lebanon. Bahrain. Bahraini security forces are searching for three suspects accused of harboring explosive materials for use in “terror” attacks in the kingdom. Two separate explosions in Shiite-populated areas left members of Bahraini police forces wounded  in April and May. Amidst clashes between Shiite protestors and Bahraini security forces, the Bahraini government pledged on Tuesday to  pay $2.6 million to seventeen unspecified families over deaths last year during the height of clashes that were ultimately ended by force. This Week in History This week marks the seventeenth anniversary of Qatar’s sheikh Hamid Bin Khalifa al-Thani’s bloodless coup d’etat and ascension to power. On June 27, 1995, Sheikh Hamad deposed his father, Sheikh Khalifa, who was vacationing in Switzerland with a telephone call and proclamation that he was now the new emir and prime minister of Qatar. Sheikh Hamid hired a U.S. law firm to freeze his father’s bank accounts abroad, thereby preventing a possible counter-coup. Sheikh Hamid’s “tele-coup” was widely supported by significant portions of the al-Thani family and the business community who found the former emir too slow to carry out economic reforms. Sheikh Hamid has since established himself as a prominent Gulf leader, initiating economic reforms and moving Qatar closer to the United States in the region. Statistic of the Week In light of the EU sanctions, Iranian officials acknowledged for the first time on Wednesday that the country’s oil exports have fallen sharply, down 20-30 percent from its normal 2.2 million barrels daily. A 20-30 percent fall would put Iranian exports at 1.54-1.76 million bpd, off 440-660,000 bpd.

Significant Middle East Developments Egypt. Egyptian election officials announced yesterday that they were postponing the announcement of the country’s presidential runoff, plunging the country into further uncertainty. Official results of the presidential election will not be released until Sunday, purportedly to evaluate allegations of electoral abuse and voter fraud. The election commission had been expected to confirm a winner today, and, based on a public vote count, to have named Mohamed Morsi, of the Muslim Brotherhood. The unexpected delay intensified tensions between the Muslim Brotherhood and the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, Egypt’s military rulers previously appointed under ousted president Mubarak. After the Supreme Court’s dissolution of parliament last week, SCAF reimposed martial law in a Sunday announcement. The military rulers issued an interim charter severely limiting the new president’s power and seizing significant control over the writing of a new constitution. U.S. secretary of state Hillary Clinton responded to the military’s “soft coup,” stating, “We think that it is imperative that the military fulfill its promise to the Egyptian people to turn power over to the legitimate winner.” Her statement reiterated the United States’ commitment to “free, fair, and legitimate” elections in Egypt, and a recognition that the emergence of a stable, democratic state in Egypt “is not about one election, one time.” Adding to the pervading uncertainty, conflicting news reports over Mubarak’s health dominated the airwaves.  Following claims that Mubarak was “clinically dead” after suffering from a stroke, Yousri Abdel Razeq, a lawyer for Mr. Mubarak, denied the reports and said that the former president had been transferred from prison to a hospital due to a blood clot. Mr. Abdel Raziq characterized the reports of Mubarak’s death as “media mania” and “fictional.” Saudi Arabia. Crown Prince Nayef, Saudi Arabia’s interior minister, died on Saturday at the age of seventy-nine. Nayef had been designated next in line to succeed King Abdullah. The eighty-eight year-old Abdullah has now survived two of his designated successors. On Monday, King Abdullah named seventy-six year-old Saudi defense minister prince Salman bin Adbdulaziz “crown prince and deputy prime minister,” thus making him the new heir apparent. Iran. The third round of international talks on Iran’s nuclear program held in Moscow ended without encouragement on Tuesday evening. EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton announced that after five sessions of talks between Iran and the six powers of the P5+1—Britain, China, France, Russia, the United States, and Germany—the differences remained so significant that negotiators could not even commit to another meeting. Instead, Ashton said, the two sides agreed to hold experts-level talks on July 3 in Istanbul. The United States will move forward on July 1 to tighten further its economic sanctions on Iran. Meanwhile, Iran announced today that it has defused a “massive” cyberattack on its nuclear facilities. Iranian intelligence minister Heidar Moslehi said on state-run TV: “Based on obtained information, the U.S. and the Zionist regime along with the MI6 planned an operation to launch a massive cyber attack against Iran’s facilities following the meeting between Iran and the P5+1 in Moscow," but that the plan was foiled by Iranian measures. Syria. In the first Syrian air force defection since the uprisings began, Colonel Hassan Merei al-Hamade piloted his Mig-21 fighter jet into Jordan this morning and landed at the Mafraq military base in Jordan. Jordan immediately agreed to the pilot’s request for political asylum. Syria denounced the pilot as a “traitor to his country” and demanded the return of the aircraft. The defection follows last weekend’s decision by Norwegian major general Robert Mood, head of the UN Supervision Mission in Syria, to suspend the UN observer mission. Mood said the escalating violence in Syria made it impossible for monitors to carry out their work. Following a briefing before the UN Security Council in New York on Tuesday, Mood told reporters: “We need to see a change if the activity of the mission in the current situation and under the current mandate is to be meaningful” and added that he hoped the mission could soon monitor at least some areas of Syria. Meanwhile, violence in Syria continued unabated with Syrian forces bombarding Homs throughout the week, forcing the Syria Red Crescent today to halt its evacuation of trapped citizens. Homs-based activist Abu Bilal reported: "The Red Crescent has so far been unable to enter the besieged neighborhoods in order to evacuate the wounded, because of the shelling." See my blog from Tuesday for an on-the-ground perspective on life in Homs. Also today, Russia confirmed for the first time that a cargo ship carrying attack helicopters was forced to turn back before making their delivery in Syria. This prompted an immediate Arab League call on Russia to halt its arms supplies to Syria. Noteworthy U.S. Foreign Policy Developments Syria. Today’s New York Times reports that CIA officers are operating covertly in southern Turkey to aid Syrian oppositionists. According to the Times report, CIA officers have been in Turkey for several weeks working to keep weapons funneled into Syria for rebel fighters by Syria’s neighbors out of the hands of al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups. The officers are apparently also helping Syrian opposition allies in deciding where the weapons should be sent. Spokesmen for the White House, State Department, and CIA refused to comment on the matter. G-20 Summit. President Obama met with Russian president Vladimir Putin on Monday in a closed two-hour talk on the margins of the G-20 summit. The two leaders agreed that Syrians should choose their own next government and pledged cooperation although the two leaders were markedly frosty in their media appearance before reporters after the meeting. Obama said that he and Putin “agreed that we need to see a cessation of the violence, that a political process has to be created to prevent civil war and the kind of horrific events that we’ve seen over the last several weeks.” Putin echoed the remarks, saying,  “We’ve been able to find many commonalities” on Syria. On Tuesday, Obama met with Turkish prime minister Erdogan also on the fringes of the G-20 summit. According to a White House statement, "They discussed the importance of moving toward a political transition in Syria that ends bloodshed and brings about a government that reflects the will of the Syrian people." The statement went on to announce that "They also discussed the situation in Iraq, and agreed on their support for its unity. They reviewed the need to enhance counterterrorism cooperation." Quotes of the Week “We are united in the belief that the Syrian people should have the opportunity to independently and democratically choose their own future.” – joint statement from bilateral meeting between Presidents Obama and Putin on Monday "I am not among those who believe Iran is an existential issue for Israel." – Israeli defense minister Ehud Barak said today “There is no reason or excuse to have doubt regarding the peaceful aims of Iran’s nuclear program.” – Iranian negotiator Saeed Jalili during talks earlier this week While We Were Looking Elsewhere Gaza. In its first set of open attacks against Israel in approximately a year, Hamas launched over one hundred rockets into Israel from Gaza over the course of three days this week, prompting strong Israeli retaliatory strikes. A tense ceasefire now seems to be holding in southern Israel and Gaza today. Nine Palestinians were reported to have died during the exchange of rocket fire. One Israeli was killed in a cross-border firing on Monday. Jordan. Jordan announced the end to its open border policy for Syrians, tightening the screening process for Syrian refugees. Under the new screening system, Syrian males with residency permits from other countries will not be allowed into Jordan. The Interior Ministry estimates some 125,000 Syrians have entered Jordan since the beginning of the Syrian crisis. Yemen. A Yemeni air raid reportedly against al-Qaeda strongholds in the south of Yemen killed a Red Cross worker yesterday. Hussein Saleh was killed as he worked toward the release of a kidnapped colleague. This Week in History This week marks the fifty-first anniversary of Kuwait’s independence from Britain. Britain first asserted influence over Kuwait, a previously autonomous state under Ottoman suzerainty, with the Anglo-Kuwait Treaty in 1899. That agreement gave Britain extensive control over Kuwait foreign policy in exchange for military protection and an annual subsidy. After the start of World War I, Britain formally declared Kuwait an independent principality under British protectorate. With the discovery of oil in 1938, Kuwait remained a valuable British asset. By early 1961, the British had withdrawn their special court system, which handled the cases of foreigners residing in Kuwait, and the Kuwaiti government began to exercise legal jurisdiction under new laws drawn up by an Egyptian jurist. On June 19, 1961, Kuwait became fully independent following an exchange of notes with the United Kingdom between ruler Sheikh Abdullah III and Sir William Luce. Kuwait officially became the 111th member state of the United Nations on14 May, 1963, and is a long-standing member of the Arab League and the Gulf Cooperation Council. Statistic of the Week A recent Pew poll reports that President Obama’s approval rating continues to drop in the Muslim world. In the countries polled--Egypt, Lebanon, Tunisia, Jordan, Turkey, and Pakistan--confidence in Obama has dropped from 33 percent in 2009 to 24 percent in 2012. The approval rating in his international policies has dipped even more dramatically, from 34 percent to 15 percent.

Significant Middle East Developments Syria. The United Nations Security Council established the U.N. Supervision Mission in Syria on Saturday, increasing the number of ceasefire monitors there from thirty to three hundred. UN special envoy Kofi Annan subsequently urged the Security Council on Tuesday to deploy the expanded unarmed military mission rapidly. However, the head of U.N. peacekeeping operations, Herve Ladsous, said it will take a month to deploy the first one hundred monitors. French foreign minister Alain Juppe announced on Wednesday that he would push for the deployment of the entire three hundred person contingent within two weeks. Juppe also suggested that France would push for Security Council action under Chapter Seven of the UN Charter if Assad’s government does not fully implement the Annan peace plan by early May. Meanwhile, an explosion ripped through a residential building in Hama on Thursday killing at least sixteen Syrian civilians. The opposition blamed government shelling for the deaths while Syrian state media accused terrorists of bombing the building. Iraq. Massoud Barzani, the president of Iraq’s Kurdistan region, warned on Wednesday that Kurdish voters may consider secession if Iraqi prime minister Nouri al-Maliki and his Shiite bloc do not agree to share power by September. He said that Iraq’s unity is threatened by Maliki’s "dictatorship and authoritarian rule." Barzani’s comments followed earlier remarks on Sunday in which he expressed his concerns that Maliki might use F-16 warplanes against Iraqi Kurdistan, saying "We must either prevent him from having these weapons, or if he has them, he should not stay in his position.” Iraqi Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr arrived in Kurdistan on Thursday in an attempt to help resolve the situation. Noteworthy U.S. Foreign Policy Developments Yemen. The White House has granted the CIA and the U.S. military greater leeway to target suspected al-Qaeda operatives in Yemen with drones, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday. The shift in policy, confirmed by senior officials, is a significant expansion of the drone war against Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), considered to be the most active affiliate of the terrorist network. Until now, drone strikes were only allowed against known terrorist leaders whose names were on CIA and Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC) lists. The expanded authority will allow the CIA and JSOC to target lower-level terrorist operatives whose names may not be known but whose militant activities suggest the presence of an important operative or the intention to attack U.S. interests. Quotes of the Week                   "The Sinai is turning into a kind of Wild West which…terror groups from Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and al-Qaida, with the aid of Iran, are using to smuggle arms, to bring in arms, to mount attacks against Israel." – Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaking on Israel Radio Tuesday "The Russians and Chinese, and the Iranians must understand that this man is finished and they cannot defend him. They must persuade him to leave power and hand over to his deputy.” – Tunisian president Moncef Marzouki quoted by the regional Arab newspaper Al-Hayat Tuesday "Turkey tried to restructure the geopolitics in the region on the basis of getting everybody together to focus on the economy—now we’re at a point where we see major sectarianism and we need to step back." – Iraqi vice president Tariq al-Hashemi speaking on Wednesday in Istanbul   While We Were Looking Elsewhere Jordan. Jordan’s prime minister Awn Khasawneh suddenly resigned today after barely six months in office. Khasawneh, an International Court of Justice judge, was appointed by King Abdullah to bring about political reforms. His proposed election law has drawn sharp criticism from the Muslim Brotherhood and its political arm, the IAF, which criticized the limitation on seats that could be won by political parties. In a letter announcing the move, Abdullah said that reforms in Jordan are not moving ahead apace. Meanwhile, press reports indicated that Khasawneh was unhappy at the limitations placed on his authority as prime minister. The king announced the appointment of Fayez Tarawneh, who previously served as prime minister in the 1990s, to once again serve in that post. Egypt. Egypt’s election commission reversed its decision to ban former prime minister Ahmed Shafiq on Wednesday, allowing him to be included in the finalized list of thirteen candidates that was released today. Shafiq had been disqualified on Tuesday after the military council approved a new law passed by parliament that banned from public office anyone who had served as vice president or prime minister in the last ten years of Mubarak’s rule. Campaigning for the presidency will formally begin on April 30, and the first round of elections will take place on May 23 and 24. Bahrain. Riot police employed tear gas against protesters on Tuesday, dispersing the crowd before it could reach Pearl Square in Manama. The protests came a day after the funeral of a young man who had been found dead on Saturday night after clashes between demonstrators and security forces on the eve of Bahrain’s Formula One race. The unrest intensified in the week leading up to the race, and has continued to escalate over the worsening condition of imprisoned activist Abdulhadi al-Khawaja who has been on a hunger strike. A bomb explosion in the village of Diraz wounded four police officers on Tuesday night. On Wednesday, State Department spokesperson Victoria Nuland issued a statement condemning all violence and urging restraint. UAE-Iran. In the latest round of tension between the UAE and Iran over the disputed island of Abu Musa, the Iranian parliament announced plans on Monday to establish a new province with Abu Musa as its capital. Vali Esmayeeli, a member of the Iranian parliament’s Councils and Interior Policy Commission told Fars News Agency that the new province would be named the Persian Gulf Province. Abu Musa, in addition to the Greater Tunb and Lesser Tunb, are at the center of a UAE-Iranian territorial dispute. On Tuesday, Sharjah ruler Sheikh Sultan bin Mohammed Al Qasimi pledged to provide a ship to provide safe and reliable transportation between the UAE and Abu Musa. This Week in History This week marks the nineteenth anniversary of the first parliamentary elections to take place in a unified Yemen. The election resulted in a three-part coalition composed of President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s People’s General Congress (GPC), the Yemeni Socialist Party (YSP), which had previously governed southern Yemen, and Islah, the Islamist opposition party. The election was hailed at the time by the National Democratic Institute for establishing Yemen as “the most democratically developed and stable Arab state…worthy of study and emulation.” However, the coalition broke apart less than a year later and the country was consumed by a short civil war that resulted in the defeat of the southern forces and the consolidation of power in the hands of Saleh and some of his supporters. Statistic of the Week The UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) reported on Tuesday that over six thousand Syrians have registered with the agency in Jordan over the last month. The total number of Syrians registered as refugees has exceeded twelve thousand, and UNHCR expects that figure to rise to fifteen thousand by the end of April. A spokesperson for UNHCR said that the agency has only received $15.6 million out of the eighty-four million dollars it requested for support services for Syrian refugees in Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey, and Iraq.    

Significant Middle East Developments Syria. The United Nations Security Council unanimously passed a resolution Saturday authorizing the deployment of a thirty-person monitoring mission to oversee the Syrian ceasefire. By the time the first observers arrived in Syria on Monday, violence had flared up in recent flashpoint towns, including Homs and Hama. Clashes also broke out near the Turkish border. In light of the continued violence, France convened a Friends of Syria meeting today in Paris that fourteen foreign ministers, including Secretary of State Clinton, attended. The Friends group issued an urgent call to Syrian president Assad to implement the Annan plan. Meanwhile, the Syrian foreign ministry announced today that it had reached agreement with the UN on the terms of a cease-fire monitoring mission. The Syrians announced that the agreement “aims to facilitate the task of the observers within the framework of Syrian sovereignty.” The UNSC meets today for a briefing by Kofi Annan’s deputy Jean-Marie Guehenno to discuss the possibility of deploying a larger monitoring mission, perhaps numbering three hundred observers. Egypt. The presidential election commission reaffirmed on Tuesday its disqualification of ten presidential candidates, just weeks before the vote is set to begin on May 23. The three front-runners ejected are Muslim Brotherhood candidate Khairat al-Shater, former spy chief and vice president Omar Suleiman, and the Salafist candidate Hazem Abu Ismail. Shater reacted to the news by accusing the ruling military council of fraud and of not being serious about transferring power. He then announced that the Muslim Brotherhood would take to Tahrir Square on Friday to protest. Out of the thirteen remaining candidates, the leading candidates left include former foreign minister and Arab League head Amr Moussa, Freedom and Justice Party leader Mohamed el-Morsi, and former Brotherhood member Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh. Noteworthy U.S. Foreign Policy Developments Iran. Iran and P5+1 negotiators agreed to meet again on May 23 in Baghdad following ten hours of talks on Saturday in Istanbul. While the talks did not produce anything concrete, Catherine Ashton, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, called them “constructive and useful.” Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu criticized the meeting on Sunday for giving Iran a “freebie” by allowing it to buy time and continue enriching uranium for another five weeks without limitations. President Obama responded to Netanyahu’s Sunday criticism, dismissing the notion that Iran has been given a pass, emphasizing that “they’ve got some of the toughest sanctions that they’re going to be facing coming up in just a few months if they don’t take advantage of these talks.” Israeli defense minister Ehud Barak expressed doubts on Tuesday about the talks with Iran, and said that the ongoing talks do not mean that Iran is exempt from an Israeli military strike. Quotes of the Week "There are many reasons which have contributed to the weakening of the Palestinian Authority, but its dissolution is out of the question." – Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas told the Palestinian daily Al-Ayyam on Monday "I regret that Russia continues to lock itself into a vision that isolates it more and more, not just from the Arab world but also from the international community." – French foreign minister Alain Juppe said on Thursday ahead of talks in Paris with foreign ministers supporting tougher action against Bashar al-Assad "We are at a crucial turning point… Either we succeed in pushing forward with Kofi Annan’s plan in accordance with the Security Council direction, with the help of monitors steadily broadening and deepening a zone of non-conflict and peace, or we see Assad squandering his last chance before additional measures have to be considered." – U.S. secretary of state Hillary Clinton said on Wednesday While We Were Looking Elsewhere Jordan. The Lower House of Jordan’s parliament voted on Monday to amend a new election law forbidding political parties based on a religious, ethnic, or sectarian basis. The measure appears to disqualify the Islamic Action Front, the Muslim Brotherhood’s political branch, from running in upcoming parliamentary elections. The new election law is being touted as a key piece of the Jordanian government’s effort to introduce political reform, though it has been met thus far with mixed reactions, with the IAF talking of boycotting the elections. Bahrain. Hundreds of protesters clashed with security forces in Manama on Thursday in the run-up to this weekend’s Formula One Grand Prix. Security forces fired tear gas and stun grenades at the protesters, who heckled the race and called for the release of Abdulhadi al-Khawaja, a jailed activist who has been on a hunger strike for more than two months. Bahraini police briefly had detained two international human rights officials--Tom Malinowski, Washington director of Human Rights Watch, and Nadim Houry, the organization’s deputy director for the Middle East—for observing protests in which scores more were arrested. Protesters have vowed to hold daily demonstrations all week in a rebuke to Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa, generally seen as a regime reformer and the race’s main backer. Two members of Force India’s Formula One team left Bahrain after a Molotov cocktail was thrown near their car in a traffic jam caused by an anti-regime protest on Wednesday. The Grand Prix was cancelled last year because of the unrest. Israel-Palestine. Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu met on Tuesday with a Palestinian Authority delegation comprised of negotiator Saeb Erekat and intelligence chief Majed Faraj. Netanyahu accepted a long-anticipated letter the Palestinians delivered from PA president Mahmoud Abbas. Prime Minister Salam Fayyad had been expected to join the group, but bowed out in solidarity with more than one thousand Palestinian prisoners who began a hunger strike protesting conditions in Israeli jails. The letter, watered down from previous drafts leaked publicly, specified Palestinian grievances and demanded an Israeli settlement construction halt. Netanyahu promised a written response within two weeks. In an extraordinary move, the two sides issued a joint statement expressing their hope that the exchange of letters would help them find a way to advance peace. No other countries were involved in the effort to bring the two sides together. UAE. The GCC foreign ministers met in Doha on Tuesday to discuss Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmedinajed’s visit last week to the disputed Gulf island of Abu Musa. The GCC condemned the visit as “provocative” and urged Iran to end its occupation of Abu Musa and two other small nearby islands--Greater Tunb and Lower Tunb. Iran seized control of the three small islands, valued for their strategic proximity to the Strait of Hormuz and potential oil reserves, in 1971 when British forces withdrew and the UAE was in the process of uniting and declaring its independence. Iran responded to the GCC condemnation menacingly, with ground forces commander General Ahmad Reza Pourdastan declaring Thursday that “If these disturbances are not solved through diplomacy, the military forces are ready to show the power of Iran to the offender. Iran will strongly defend its right.” Libya. Libya’s interim prime minister, Abdel Rahim al-Kib, plans to reshuffle his cabinet following warnings by the National Transition Council on Monday that it was ready to cast a no-confidence vote against al-Kib and his cabinet. The interim government has been criticized for failing to reactivate the army, to integrate the militias, and to combat corruption. A program to reward people who had fought against Qaddafi last year was shut down on April 7 after it was discovered that money was being handed to people who had not fought in the uprising or who were pretending to be fighters who were now dead. This Week in History This week marks the ninety-second anniversary of the Conference of San Remo, the international meeting convened to determine the fate of the former territories of the Ottoman Turkish Empire following World War I. The prime ministers of Great Britain, France, and Italy and representatives of Japan, Greece, and Belgium attended the conference. Held from April 19-26, 1920, the attendees approved the final framework of a peace treaty with Turkey, later signed in August of that year. The conference also created two “A” mandates out of the former Ottoman province of Syria. The northern portion, consisting of present-day Syria and Lebanon, was placed under French mandatory authority. The southern part, named Palestine, and the province of Mesopotamia, present-day Iraq, were mandated to Great Britain. To many in the Middle East today, this approach created the foundation for much of the dysfunctional politics in these areas over the enduring near century. Statistic of the Week According to a poll conducted by Egypt’s Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, Omar Suleiman’s disqualification from the presidential race will likely benefit Ahmed Shafiq and Amr Moussa. Of the voters who had been inclined to vote for Suleiman, 40.4 percent listed Shafiq as their second choice and 27.4 percent listed Moussa. The disqualification of Hazam Abu Ismail is likely to most benefit Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh, as 29.9 percent of Ismail supporters listed Fotouh as their second choice, and 25 percent listed Khairat al-Shater, who has also been disqualified. The first round of voting is scheduled to begin May 23.  

Significant Middle East Developments Syria. An uneasy UN-brokered ceasefire went into effect at dawn in Syria this morning. Activists report relative quiet throughout the country though Syrian forces have not returned to barracks. UN-Arab League envoy Kofi Annan said in a statement this morning that he was encouraged that “the cessation of hostilities appears to be holding.” Arab League chief Nabil al-Arabi welcomed the development and urged Annan to send observers to Syria to monitor the ceasefire. Annan reportedly told the UN Security Council in a closed-door briefing today that the Syrian regime has failed to implement the full troop pullback. UNSC secretary general Ban Ki-Moon echoed Annan’s call for the Syrian regime to keep its promises and implement Annan’s six-point plan, saying: "As of this moment the situation looks calmer. We are following it very closely." The cease-fire comes after a tumultuous week in Syria with over one thousand deaths reported by the Syrian National Council, and violence spilling over into Turkey and Lebanon on Monday, with a Lebanese journalist killed inside his country by shots across the border from Syria. Meanwhile, Human Rights Watch issued a report on Monday that documented at least one hundred extrajudicial executions by the regime and called for a referral to the International Criminal Court. Iran. White House spokesperson Jay Carney, speaking prior to this weekend’s P5+1 nuclear talks, suggested that while time is not infinite, there is enough of it to pursue a diplomatic solution to Iran’s nuclear program. Fereydoon Abbasi-Davani, the head of Iran’s atomic nuclear organization, suggested on Monday that the Islamic republic might consider stopping enrichment of uranium at 20 percent. Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili, confirmed Wednesday that Iran would offer “new initiatives” to the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany when they meet Saturday in Istanbul. Meanwhile, the Pentagon announced the deployment of a second U.S. aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf, only the fourth time in the past decade that the United States has had two aircraft carriers operating at the same time in the region. The commander of the U.S. Fifth Fleet based in Bahrain called the deployment “routine and not specific to any threat.” Egypt. Omar Suleiman, Egypt’s former spy chief under deposed president Mubarak, announced his candidacy for president last Friday. His announcement, published on the website of state-run newspaper Al-Ahram, caught many Egyptians by surprise. Suleiman claimed he was running in response to Egypt’s desire for “security, stability and prosperity.” Suleiman, who served briefly as Mubarak’s vice president in the waning days of his rule, has been largely absent from public life following the toppling of the Egyptian government. Muslim Brotherhood secretary general Mahmoud Hussein, in comments published on the movement’s website on Wednesday, called the Suleiman candidacy “an attempt by the remnants of the regime to try to bring back the fallen era. It is seeking to thwart the revolution and return to the era before January 25." Noteworthy U.S. Foreign Policy Developments G8. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton hosted the Group of 8 foreign ministers on Wednesday and Thursday in Washington where they discussed a range of regional issues. Clinton reportedly discussed Syria again with Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov, following up on their March 12 meeting in which Lavrov said “ultimatums would not work.” On Monday, in the run-up to the ministerial meeting, Clinton told an audience at the U.S. Naval Academy that she expected a “very rough couple of days” while trying to determine whether a Syrian resolution should be brought back to the UN Security Council in the face of Russian resistance. She also blamed Russia’s refusal to support constructive action for keeping Assad in power. Following the G8 meetings, Clinton expressed cautious hope for today’s calm in Syria, noting, “The Annan plan is not a menu of options. It is a set of obligations. The burden of fully and visibly meeting all of these obligations continues to rest with the regime. They cannot pick and choose. For it to be meaningful, this apparent halt in violence must lead to a credible political process and a peaceful, inclusive, democratic transition.” Israel/Palestine. The Middle East Quartet--comprised of the European Union, Russia, the United Nations, and the United States--met on Wednesday and welcomed plans for upcoming dialogue between Israeli and Palestinian officials while discussing ways to support these efforts. UN secretary general Ban Ki-moon, Secretary of State Clinton, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, High Commissioner Catherine Ashton, and Quartet Representative Tony Blair were briefed by Jordan’s foreign minister, Nasser Judeh, about his country’s Israeli-Palestinian engagement. Meanwhile, Palestinian Authority president Abbas told an Israeli delegation on Sunday that he would continue his efforts to win recognition for Palestinian statehood at the UN if Prime Minister Netanyahu failed to respond to Palestinian positions to be laid out in a letter to be delivered by the Palestinians next Wednesday, April 17. According to Netanyahu’s aides yesterday, the Israeli leader seeks to upgrade peace talks to direct talks between himself and Abbas. PA spokesperson Nabil Abu Rdeneh said today that Abbas was ready for talks only if Israel halts settlement construction and accepts the 1967 green line as the basis for negotiations. Otherwise, he said, negotiations would be a “waste of time.” Quotes of the Week  “If the Brotherhood’s candidate wins the presidential election, Egypt will be turned into a religious state. All state institutions will be controlled by the Brotherhood." – Former Egyptian vice president Omar Suleiman said in an interview published on Thursday  “The Russians have continuously said they want to avoid civil war, they want to avoid a regional conflict, but their refusal to join with us in some sort of constructive action is keeping Assad in power, well armed, able to ignore the demands of his own people, of his region and the world.” – Secretary Of State Hillary Clinton said Tuesday evening at the U.S. Naval Academy in Annapolis "China calls on the Syrian government to respond to the six-point proposal." – Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Liu Weimin said on Wednesday of Kofi Annan’s six-point plan for resolving the Syrian crisis "[Western powers] want to impose sanctions on our oil and we must say to them that we have that much saved that even if we didn’t sell oil for two to three years, the country would manage easily." --Iranian president Ahmadinejad said during a visit to Hormuzgan province on Tuesday "And you know, our bottom line, our position is that Iran must -- lived up to its international obligations, including the full suspension of uranium enrichment, as required by multiple UN Security Council resolutions," – Whitehouse spokesman Jay Carney said in a press briefing on Wednesday While We Were Looking Elsewhere Tunisia. Some of the worst violence since last year’s revolution broke out in Tunisia on Monday. Hundreds of protesters gathering on a main avenue in Tunis in violation of a ban on demonstrations there, were met by tear gas and baton-armed riot police who injured fifteen civilians. President Moncef Marzouki denounced the violence as “unacceptable.” The Tunisian government announced today that it has reversed its ban on demonstrations. Gaza. Three men were hanged by Hamas in Gaza City on Saturday. Though the names and ages of the men were not released, Gaza authorities issued a statement claiming that one man had helped Israel and the other two were complicit in murder. The executions marked the first time Hamas has carried out an execution of someone accused of aiding Israel this year. Jordan. The Jordanian government announced on Wednesday that it would revoke Jordanian citizenship of Palestinian Authority and PLO officials, coinciding with a new electoral law in Jordan that will limit Palestinian representation in parliament. The government has defended the move saying it is “preserving the Palestinians’ national identity and paving the way for their return to Palestine.” It is not clear if Palestinian Authority president Abbas will lose his Jordanian citizenship. Yemen. More than 150 people have been killed since clashes broke out in Yemen on Monday, with at least eight fighters linked to al-Qaeda being killed today. The militant group Ansar al-Sharia attacked a military camp in the Lawdar area on Monday and since then the Yemeni government and armed civilians have launched a retaliatory offensive against the group. This Week in History This week marks the thirty-eighth anniversary of Golda Meir’s resignation as Israel’s prime minister. Meir announced her resignation on April 11, 1974, less than six months after the end of the surprise 1973 war that left Israel stunned and deeply wounded. Meir, a signatory of Israel’s declaration of independence in 1948, served in the Knesset from 1949 until 1974 while holding a variety of ministerial posts including foreign minister. When she replaced Levi Eshkol as prime minister following his death on February 26, 1969, Meir became the world’s third female prime minister at the time. The  combined Egyptian-Syrian attack in 1973 constituted a strategic surprise for Israel, and led to bitter accusations that Meir’s government left Israel unprepared. Though Meir’s Labor Alignment won post-war elections in December 1973, a national commission of inquiry into the war—the Agranat Commission—concluded that Israel was unprepared for the war. Though the commission absolved Meir of responsibility, she resigned days later and decided to withdraw from politics. Statistic of the Week The UN special representative to Iraq reported to the UN Security Council on Tuesday that more than 600 civilians had been killed in religion-related violence in Iraq from January 1 through March 31 of this year. "Terrorist attacks have continued to target pilgrims and resulted in the killing and wounding of scores of defenseless people practicing their religion," Martin Kobler said.

This post is written by Kelley Calkins, a research associate at the Council on Foreign Relations. Here she offers her assessment of the Jordanian leadership’s calculations concerning domestic reform amidst the Arab uprisings.  Protests last weekend that resulted in the arrest of twelve protesters in Jordan serve as a reminder that the Hashemite Kingdom continues to face domestic challenges inspired by the Arab uprisings. Indeed, since January 2011, Jordan has seen numerous protests and calls for economic and political reform. King Abdullah has responded to these demonstrations by promising political change and sacking two of his prime ministers. However, meaningful movement toward real reform has been minimal so far. Given the regional instability surrounding the Hashemite Kingdom during this period of great upheaval, it seems the Jordanian regime has calculated that too much reform is risky, dangerous, and perhaps unnecessary. Assuredly, given its geopolitical locale--bordering Iraq, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Israel--Jordan’s neighborhood is anything but settled. As a result, the small kingdom is juggling a number of competing concerns. One major uncertainty looming over the Hashemite Kingdom is Syria’s fate. Given Jordan’s high rate of debt and unemployment, the influx of thousands of Syrian refugees--estimated currently as up to 80,000--poses no small burden. Further, many Jordanians worry that the Syrian conflict will deteriorate further into an all-out civil war that could embroil the entire region in sectarian conflict. Certainly, such worst case scenarios weigh heavily on King Abdullah’s mind, especially given that violence has already spilled over Syria’s borders on multiple occasions. Moreover, even if Assad were to fall tomorrow, many are concerned about what a post-Assad Syria would look like. Assad’s demise could well introduce further instability and possibly the rise of Islamists to power. Given that the Islamic Action Front, Jordan’s political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood, is the best organized and most powerful political organization in Jordan today, it is not unreasonable for the Hashemite regime to worry that Islamists could emulate their ideological brethren in Tunisia and Egypt. And if concerns about Syria and indeed Egypt were not enough, Jordan is also concerned about stalemated Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. Fearing a leadership void on this issue, Abdullah has moved to the forefront of efforts toward Israel-Palestinian peacemaking in recent months, encouraging the two parties back to the table. This is a welcome development, but it is unlikely to resolve the worrisome conflict to Jordan’s west. With these broader regional concerns in mind, King Abdullah most likely perceives the period going forward as a time for hunkering down. Despite his repeated calls for political reform, formation of committees, and reshuffling of cabinets, Abdullah likely fears that true reform right now will be perceived as a loosening of his grip that could restrict his ability to properly guide the kingdom. Coupled with the perceived fear that loosening control on the kingdom will yield an inability to fend for Jordan’s needs is a lack of international incentive to reform. Jordan’s critical international supporters are either quiet, in the case of the United States, or exerting a conservative rather than revolutionary influence, in the case of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). The GCC’s call to include Jordan and Morocco in the gulf organization highlights its fear of instability or regime change in Jordan. As a club of monarchies, the GCC has an interest in protecting and supporting fellow Arab monarchies against the threat of popular unrest, especially in a country so geo-strategically central as Jordan. This accounts for both the invitation to join the GCC and Saudi Arabia’s $2.5 billion support fund for Jordan created in December. Similarly, Jordan’s king Abdullah is a crucially important ally to the United States, all the more so since Mubarak’s ouster. As a neighbor to Israel and holder of a peace treaty with the Jewish state, Jordan is central to U.S. interests in the region. As such, the Obama administration is unlikely to exert much real pressure on King Abdullah, especially in light of all the other more pressing regional concerns. No doubt further fueling Abdullah’s reluctance to reform at a time of such regional instability is the diverse nature of the kingdom’s opposition. Though Jordan has seen a number of protests and demonstrations since its first “Day of Anger” some fourteen months ago, its various opposition groups remain divided. As detailed in a recently released International Crisis Group report on Jordan, the historic divide between the generally rural-based and regime-supporting East Bankers and the Palestinian-Jordanians  helps preclude a unified oppositionist front from emerging. Disagreements and divisions among East Bankers and within the Islamic Action Front further contribute to opposition fragmentation. This lack of unity between these various components within the population has long served the regime, and it continues to do so. Thus, the king no doubt believes his limited reform efforts are working well enough. Though the various component groups of the opposition are not united in their anger or their specific aims, the continued protests confirm that these groups are all simultaneously angry. As witnessed time and again throughout the region since the fateful self-immolation of a fruit vendor in Tunisia nearly a year and a half ago, to underestimate the power of popular discontent is to risk self-destruction. The Jordanian regime would be wise to bear this in mind. The cost of a failure to get in front of the protesters’ demands and move forward with reform could be enormous.