Israel

Significant Middle East Developments Egypt. Egyptian election officials announced yesterday that they were postponing the announcement of the country’s presidential runoff, plunging the country into further uncertainty. Official results of the presidential election will not be released until Sunday, purportedly to evaluate allegations of electoral abuse and voter fraud. The election commission had been expected to confirm a winner today, and, based on a public vote count, to have named Mohamed Morsi, of the Muslim Brotherhood. The unexpected delay intensified tensions between the Muslim Brotherhood and the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, Egypt’s military rulers previously appointed under ousted president Mubarak. After the Supreme Court’s dissolution of parliament last week, SCAF reimposed martial law in a Sunday announcement. The military rulers issued an interim charter severely limiting the new president’s power and seizing significant control over the writing of a new constitution. U.S. secretary of state Hillary Clinton responded to the military’s “soft coup,” stating, “We think that it is imperative that the military fulfill its promise to the Egyptian people to turn power over to the legitimate winner.” Her statement reiterated the United States’ commitment to “free, fair, and legitimate” elections in Egypt, and a recognition that the emergence of a stable, democratic state in Egypt “is not about one election, one time.” Adding to the pervading uncertainty, conflicting news reports over Mubarak’s health dominated the airwaves.  Following claims that Mubarak was “clinically dead” after suffering from a stroke, Yousri Abdel Razeq, a lawyer for Mr. Mubarak, denied the reports and said that the former president had been transferred from prison to a hospital due to a blood clot. Mr. Abdel Raziq characterized the reports of Mubarak’s death as “media mania” and “fictional.” Saudi Arabia. Crown Prince Nayef, Saudi Arabia’s interior minister, died on Saturday at the age of seventy-nine. Nayef had been designated next in line to succeed King Abdullah. The eighty-eight year-old Abdullah has now survived two of his designated successors. On Monday, King Abdullah named seventy-six year-old Saudi defense minister prince Salman bin Adbdulaziz “crown prince and deputy prime minister,” thus making him the new heir apparent. Iran. The third round of international talks on Iran’s nuclear program held in Moscow ended without encouragement on Tuesday evening. EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton announced that after five sessions of talks between Iran and the six powers of the P5+1—Britain, China, France, Russia, the United States, and Germany—the differences remained so significant that negotiators could not even commit to another meeting. Instead, Ashton said, the two sides agreed to hold experts-level talks on July 3 in Istanbul. The United States will move forward on July 1 to tighten further its economic sanctions on Iran. Meanwhile, Iran announced today that it has defused a “massive” cyberattack on its nuclear facilities. Iranian intelligence minister Heidar Moslehi said on state-run TV: “Based on obtained information, the U.S. and the Zionist regime along with the MI6 planned an operation to launch a massive cyber attack against Iran’s facilities following the meeting between Iran and the P5+1 in Moscow," but that the plan was foiled by Iranian measures. Syria. In the first Syrian air force defection since the uprisings began, Colonel Hassan Merei al-Hamade piloted his Mig-21 fighter jet into Jordan this morning and landed at the Mafraq military base in Jordan. Jordan immediately agreed to the pilot’s request for political asylum. Syria denounced the pilot as a “traitor to his country” and demanded the return of the aircraft. The defection follows last weekend’s decision by Norwegian major general Robert Mood, head of the UN Supervision Mission in Syria, to suspend the UN observer mission. Mood said the escalating violence in Syria made it impossible for monitors to carry out their work. Following a briefing before the UN Security Council in New York on Tuesday, Mood told reporters: “We need to see a change if the activity of the mission in the current situation and under the current mandate is to be meaningful” and added that he hoped the mission could soon monitor at least some areas of Syria. Meanwhile, violence in Syria continued unabated with Syrian forces bombarding Homs throughout the week, forcing the Syria Red Crescent today to halt its evacuation of trapped citizens. Homs-based activist Abu Bilal reported: "The Red Crescent has so far been unable to enter the besieged neighborhoods in order to evacuate the wounded, because of the shelling." See my blog from Tuesday for an on-the-ground perspective on life in Homs. Also today, Russia confirmed for the first time that a cargo ship carrying attack helicopters was forced to turn back before making their delivery in Syria. This prompted an immediate Arab League call on Russia to halt its arms supplies to Syria. Noteworthy U.S. Foreign Policy Developments Syria. Today’s New York Times reports that CIA officers are operating covertly in southern Turkey to aid Syrian oppositionists. According to the Times report, CIA officers have been in Turkey for several weeks working to keep weapons funneled into Syria for rebel fighters by Syria’s neighbors out of the hands of al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups. The officers are apparently also helping Syrian opposition allies in deciding where the weapons should be sent. Spokesmen for the White House, State Department, and CIA refused to comment on the matter. G-20 Summit. President Obama met with Russian president Vladimir Putin on Monday in a closed two-hour talk on the margins of the G-20 summit. The two leaders agreed that Syrians should choose their own next government and pledged cooperation although the two leaders were markedly frosty in their media appearance before reporters after the meeting. Obama said that he and Putin “agreed that we need to see a cessation of the violence, that a political process has to be created to prevent civil war and the kind of horrific events that we’ve seen over the last several weeks.” Putin echoed the remarks, saying,  “We’ve been able to find many commonalities” on Syria. On Tuesday, Obama met with Turkish prime minister Erdogan also on the fringes of the G-20 summit. According to a White House statement, "They discussed the importance of moving toward a political transition in Syria that ends bloodshed and brings about a government that reflects the will of the Syrian people." The statement went on to announce that "They also discussed the situation in Iraq, and agreed on their support for its unity. They reviewed the need to enhance counterterrorism cooperation." Quotes of the Week “We are united in the belief that the Syrian people should have the opportunity to independently and democratically choose their own future.” – joint statement from bilateral meeting between Presidents Obama and Putin on Monday "I am not among those who believe Iran is an existential issue for Israel." – Israeli defense minister Ehud Barak said today “There is no reason or excuse to have doubt regarding the peaceful aims of Iran’s nuclear program.” – Iranian negotiator Saeed Jalili during talks earlier this week While We Were Looking Elsewhere Gaza. In its first set of open attacks against Israel in approximately a year, Hamas launched over one hundred rockets into Israel from Gaza over the course of three days this week, prompting strong Israeli retaliatory strikes. A tense ceasefire now seems to be holding in southern Israel and Gaza today. Nine Palestinians were reported to have died during the exchange of rocket fire. One Israeli was killed in a cross-border firing on Monday. Jordan. Jordan announced the end to its open border policy for Syrians, tightening the screening process for Syrian refugees. Under the new screening system, Syrian males with residency permits from other countries will not be allowed into Jordan. The Interior Ministry estimates some 125,000 Syrians have entered Jordan since the beginning of the Syrian crisis. Yemen. A Yemeni air raid reportedly against al-Qaeda strongholds in the south of Yemen killed a Red Cross worker yesterday. Hussein Saleh was killed as he worked toward the release of a kidnapped colleague. This Week in History This week marks the fifty-first anniversary of Kuwait’s independence from Britain. Britain first asserted influence over Kuwait, a previously autonomous state under Ottoman suzerainty, with the Anglo-Kuwait Treaty in 1899. That agreement gave Britain extensive control over Kuwait foreign policy in exchange for military protection and an annual subsidy. After the start of World War I, Britain formally declared Kuwait an independent principality under British protectorate. With the discovery of oil in 1938, Kuwait remained a valuable British asset. By early 1961, the British had withdrawn their special court system, which handled the cases of foreigners residing in Kuwait, and the Kuwaiti government began to exercise legal jurisdiction under new laws drawn up by an Egyptian jurist. On June 19, 1961, Kuwait became fully independent following an exchange of notes with the United Kingdom between ruler Sheikh Abdullah III and Sir William Luce. Kuwait officially became the 111th member state of the United Nations on14 May, 1963, and is a long-standing member of the Arab League and the Gulf Cooperation Council. Statistic of the Week A recent Pew poll reports that President Obama’s approval rating continues to drop in the Muslim world. In the countries polled--Egypt, Lebanon, Tunisia, Jordan, Turkey, and Pakistan--confidence in Obama has dropped from 33 percent in 2009 to 24 percent in 2012. The approval rating in his international policies has dipped even more dramatically, from 34 percent to 15 percent.

Significant Middle East Developments Egypt. Egypt’s Supreme Constitutional Court today deemed unconstitutional both the law governing the country’s recent parliamentary elections and the “Political Disenfranchisement Law” that would have prevented presidential candidate Ahmed Shafiq from running in the upcoming elections. As a result, the second round of Egypt’s presidential elections are slated to occur as scheduled on June 16-17 pitting Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohammad Mursi against Shafiq, the last prime minister to serve under ousted Hosni Mubarak. However, under the court’s ruling, both houses of Egypt’s parliament will be dissolved based on the grounds that "the makeup of the entire chamber is illegal and, consequently, it does not legally stand." In a move some are calling a de facto coup, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces will assume all parliamentary powers and the right to elect the Constituent Assembly. The court did not specify when new parliamentary elections needed to be held. Clashes erupted in Cairo outside of the High Constitutional Court after verdicts were announced. Meanwhile, Egyptian security officials say Hosni Mubarak’s medical condition is showing “a slight improvement” after he was defibrillated twice to revive his ailing heart on Monday. Syria. Car bombs detonated in Damascus and the northern city of Idlib today with the British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reporting twenty-two people killed in violent confrontations across Syria. The Observatory accused the nearly 300 UN observers currently in Syria of passivity and “silence” stating that the observers “do not move until after a city is defeated by regime troops, as happened in Al-Haffe.” UN officials only gained access to Al-Haffe in the Latakia, having been previously blocked from entering the village, after the Syrian Foreign Ministry announced that the area had been “cleansed” of “armed terrorist gangs.” UN officials reported that the observers had came under fire in a village near Al-Haffe on Tuesday after government supporters surrounded their vehicles as they were trying to reach the town. Herve Ladsous, the head of the UN’s Department of Peacekeeping Operations, said in New York on Tuesday that the situation in Syria now amounts to a full-scale civil war as witnesses on the ground described fresh shelling on Homs and heavy fighting in other cities. Noteworthy U.S. Foreign Policy Developments Tensions increased this week between the United States and Russia over reports that Moscow is supplying Syria with attack helicopters. On Tuesday, Secretary of State Clinton accused Russia of sending arms to Syria saying: "We are concerned about the latest information we have that there are attack helicopters on the way from Russia to Syria, which will escalate the conflict quite dramatically." Russia responded yesterday saying its deliveries to Syria conformed with UN regulations. Russia’s arms export agency, Rosoboronexport, announced it "does not supply weapons and military technology in contradiction with UN Security Council requirements and other international agreements." Russian foreign minister Lavrov claimed Russia is supplying weapons for purely self-defense purposes and that Russia was “finishing the fulfillment of contracts that were signed and paid for a long time ago.” The United States then ratcheted up its rhetoric on Wednesday with State Department spokesperson Victoria Nuland saying that “On a daily basis, on an hourly basis, we are seeing Russian- and Soviet-made weaponry used against civilians in towns all across Syria." Clinton also said on Wednesday that while she supported cooperation with Russia, arms deliveries to Syria needed to stop. She also issued a renewed call for an end to violence saying: "We believe that the situation is spiraling towards civil war and it’s now time for everyone in the international community--including Russia and all Security Council members--to speak to Assad with a unified voice and insist that the violence stops.” Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reports U.S. intelligence operatives have increased contacts with Syrian rebels “to help organize their burgeoning military operations against President Bashar al-Assad’s forces.”  While providing logistical information and communications training, Washington denies providing lethal assistance to the Syrian opposition. Quotes of the Week “We are back to square one.” – Law professor and political analyst Hossam Eissa to Ahram Online on the SCAF’s assumption of parliament powers today in Egypt "Rarely, have I seen such brutality against children as in Syria, where girls and boys are detained, tortured, executed, and used as human shields." Radhika Coomaraswamy, UN special representative for children in armed conflict to the AFP ahead of the release of a Human Rights Watch Report "Some parties are the main cause of the organized terrorist actions in Iraq... and they should know that their actions will make the region insecure." -- Deputy Foreign Minister, Hossein Amir Abdolahian, told state news agency IRNA on violence in Iraq "They bring darkness to a world longing for light.” – Israeli president Shimon Peres said in Washington about Iran after being awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom by President Obama on Wednesday While We Were Looking Elsewhere Libya. A four-member International Criminal Court delegation was detained in Libya last Sunday after meeting with Seif al-Islam, the son of Libyan dictator Muammar Qaddafi. The Hague-based ICC wants to try Seif al-Islam for crimes against humanity. ICC officials were in Libya to help Seif choose a defense lawyer. The delegation is being held in the western town of Zintan after Libyan officials alleged that Melina Taylor, an Australian lawyer, was attempting to give Seif a coded letter from Mohammad Ismail, a currently wanted man. Both the ICC and NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen have condemned the detention and urged their swift releases. Tunisia. Tunisia’s military court yesterday sentenced ousted president Ben Ali to twenty years imprisonment in absentia for “incitement of murder.” The trial concentrated on a mid-January 2011 incident in which four teenagers attempting to prevent Ben Ali’s nephew Kais from fleeing the country were shot dead by the president’s security forces. Ben Ali, currently exiled in Saudi Arabia, faces a number of other trials, and has already been sentenced to more than sixty-six years in prison on charges ranging from drug trafficking to embezzlement. Although both Ben Ali and his wife are subject to an international arrest warrant, there are no signs that Saudi Arabia is willing to extradite him. Yemen. Yemen experienced its biggest victory in its U.S.-backed offensive to drive al-Qaeda linked insurgents from the country’s south in more than a year by recapturing two strategic cities on Tuesday, Jaar and Zinjibar. Airstrikes continued on Wednesday in the town of Azzan--including at least one reported strike by a U.S. drone. Brigadier General Mohammad al-Sawmali said Tuesday’s success ended al-Qaeda’s hopes to establish Islamic rule in the south, but added that the government needed to remain vigilant against operations targeting key political and military figures. Iraq. A coordinated wave of car bombings killed at least sixty-six people and injured hundreds yesterday in Iraq. Car bombs struck Shiite pilgrims in Baghdad and a number of other cities. The attacks mark one of the deadliest days in Iraq since U.S. troops withdrew. Nobody has claimed responsibility for the attacks though some suspect they are the work of Sunni insurgents who frequently target Iraqi Shiites. Israel/Palestine. The Russian foreign ministry announced on Tuesday that President Vladimir Putin is planning to visit Israel and theWest Bank, marking the first time since 2005. The visit is slated for late June. This Week in History This week marks the forty-second anniversary of the closing of Wheelus Air Base, the only U.S. air base ever to be located in Libya. The United States gained control of the previously Italian-owned airbase, some seven miles from Tripoli, after World War II. Described as “USAF’s Jewel in North Africa,” Wheelus’s strategic location and moderate climate made it central to U.S. Air Force operations throughout the Middle East. With the discovery of oil in Libya in 1959, the base also served as a home to the engineers and operators of Standard Oil. Although the United States had maintained favorable relationships with King Idris Al-Sanusi, the ruler of the United Kingdom of Libya formed in 1951, relations soured after the young Muammar al-Qaddafi staged a military coup on September 1, 1969 and assumed power. Among his first decisions as Libya’s new leader, Qaddafi ordered the immediate “liquidation of foreign bases on Libyan soil.” The United States negotiated a contentious agreement with Qaddafi, and by June 11, 1970, all American aircraft and personnel had left the base. Statistic of the Week Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohamed Morsy dominated the expatriate runoff-round voting in the Gulf nations of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Qatar, taking 127,587 votes to his opponent Ahmed Shafiq’s 29,287

Following rioting against Africans concentrated in a south Tel Aviv neighborhood, Prime Minister Netanyahu has announced that the repatriation will be accelerated of some twenty-five thousand illegal African immigrants. Most of those affected are from South Sudan, Ivory Coast, Ghana, and Ethiopia, and include children born in Israel. According to the press, there are 52,487 illegal economic migrants in Israel. The Netanyahu government has been taking a hard line against illegal immigration. According to the press, the deportation of hundreds of south Asians and their Israeli-born children is currently underway. Netanyahu has acknowledged that those who have refugee status as defined by international conventions that Israel has signed cannot be deported. They are mostly from Eritrea and Sudan. He has also ordered the acceleration of the construction of a camp in the Negev for those who cannot return to their home countries. According to the press, Netanyahu in the past has characterized African asylum seekers as a “threat” to Israel’s “Jewish and democratic character.” The press reports that since 2009, of the forty-five thousand migrants that attempted to enter through Egypt, only three were granted asylum requests. Israel faces an African migration conundrum not dissimilar from that of southern European countries, especially Italy and Spain. For decades Israel has carefully cultivated improved relations with sub-Saharan African states. The deportations will undercut that effort, especially if they are widely publicized in Africa. Already there is African commentary that the accelerated deportations “provide further evidence of the inherently racist nature of political Zionism.”

Yesterday, an Istanbul court ordered that the Israeli government be notified of Turkey’s indictments of four of Israel’s former senior most members of the country’s security establishment—Major General Gabi Ashkenazi, General Amos Yadlin, Brigadier General Avishai Levy, and Vice Admiral Eliezer Merom.  The charges against the Israelis stem from the infamous May 2010 Mavi Marmara incident when a flotilla of six vessels sought to run Israel’s naval quarantine of the Gaza Strip and dealt yet another blow to Turkey-Israel relations. Not to be conspiratorial, but the timing of the indictments, which came down on May 28, seems curious. They come against the backdrop of persistent rumors that Turks and Israelis were making progress toward overcoming the not-so-thinly-veiled hostility that has marked the bilateral relationship since late 2008 and Israel’s “Operation Cast Lead.”  They also come at a time when it’s become clear that despite universal expectations to the contrary, economic ties between Turkey and Israel are growing (see here and here, for example). It is clear that some Turkish business leaders attach tremendous importance to their ties with Israel  as well as the importance with which some in the Turkish business community regard their counterparts in Israel.  Perhaps powerful political actors have a vested interest in the current state of Turkey-Israel relations and the indictments are a way of scuttling any diplomatic progress between Ankara and Jerusalem. I admit, this alleged scheme sounds a little too pat, but it’s better than other explanations that I have heard.  One Turkish interlocutor relayed to me that the indictments were actually a signal that Ankara was willing to kiss and makeup.  The calculation here is that the indictments would supposedly pressure the Israelis into “We’re sorry” and the Turks would quickly accept and all would be forgiven.  Now, that sounds wacky at worst and at best, a serious miscalculation of Israeli politics.  The indictments are likely to have the opposite effect on Jerusalem. Indeed, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to protect Israel’s officers. In the end, however, it is hard to see how there was any progress between Ankara and Jerusalem that the indictments could undermine given the public positions of both governments.  The Turks, after all, have demanded an apology and compensation for the victims of what they see as the reckless behavior of the IDF high-command and cold-blooded murder of peaceful activists aboard the Mavi Marmara. The Israelis counter that the people aboard the ferry were terrorist sympathizers affiliated with an organization, the Humanitarian Relief Foundation, which has ties to terrorists, that their commandos were attacked first, and that the UN says that enforcing the naval blockade of Gaza is within Israel’s legal rights thus--according to the Israelis-- Jerusalem has nothing to apologize for. Stalemate. Çikmaz. תיקו

This week’s Time magazine cover story features Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and attempts to divine the Israeli leader’s true ambitions. Time asks: Now that he has formed Israel’s strongest coalition in the country’s history, what does he plan to do with it? Analyzing Netanyahu’s “true intentions” has become a virtual cottage industry, both in Israel and abroad. Over the years, many commentators have scoured the Israeli leader’s personal history, speculating on the respective influences of his father, his wife, his fallen brother, and his childhood in the United States. This exercise at psycho-historical analysis, while fascinating, is largely pointless. I have had the opportunity to spend a considerable amount of time with the Israeli leader. But I would not profess to have gleaned special insight into what path his country will take under his leadership as a result. But I would say the same thing applies after having been exposed to other statesmen in my experience in public service. Indeed, one conclusion I have drawn observing world leaders is that most of them avoid tipping their hands prematurely or making decisions before they have to. They often have a strong sense of the direction they would like to point their ship of state. But they also know that they cannot predict, much less control, developments as they unfold. Therefore, given the stakes and consequences of the choices they must make, they will usually defer the hardest decisions until they absolutely must make the call. Journalists may indeed write the first draft of history. But they will not likely learn what historic decisions a given leader will take by interviewing them. The coherence and trajectory of where leaders are going are often only clear in retrospect, not at the time. Having been trained as an historian, I have spent years of my life in historical archives. Pouring through the private papers, correspondence, and minutes recording historic figures’ decision-making, it is impossible not to be struck by the complexity and even contingency of many momentous decisions. While many leaders have a strong sense of history, and operate in the knowledge that their actions will be the subject for future historians, most if not all entertain the same doubts, uncertainties, and questions the rest of us do. They are, after all, human. Momentous decisions can be literally a matter of life and death for thousands of people. It should not be surprising, therefore, that most leaders’ bottom lines on such issues can only truly be discerned at the decisive moment. They will only make the hardest choices when they absolutely have to, or when faced with an unpalatable situation in which the price of inaction forces them to act. The decisions they take are usually based on conviction, incomplete and imperfect information, and ultimately instinct. We can’t know what Bibi Netanyahu will do either with regards to Iran or the Palestinians. Whether or not Israel strikes Iran will ultimately depend on a host of elements, some international, some domestic, some personal. The actions of Iranians, Europeans, Americans, and other Israelis will all affect the calculus. But these variables are constantly changing, and it is impossible to know where they will be at some decisive moment that may well not be that of the Israeli leader’s choosing. Similarly, when it comes to what Netanyahu may do in negotiations with the Palestinians, the Israeli leader’s current intentions are much less important than the realities he will encounter down the line. In his previous stint at Israel’s helm, Netanyahu surprised many by becoming the first Likud leader to deploy Israeli deploy troops out of the historic land of Israel by signing the Hebron Accords with Yassir Arafat in 1997. This suggests that those who believe Netanyahu’s path is predetermined are mistaken. Moreover, realities change over the course of leaders’ tenures. Prime Minister Sharon took office in 2001 seeking to halt the negotiations with Yassir Arafat that had resulted in a second Intifada. Sharon later took the historic decision to withdraw Israeli settlers and soldiers from Gaza in 2005 after he saw that other diplomatic efforts, such as the Geneva initiative, were starting to gain traction internationally. Sharon was not sure that the United States would not resume a full court diplomatic press, even under George Bush. Seeking to initiate rather than react, he put forward and executed his Gaza plan. Sharon’s successor, Ehud Olmert, came to power seeking to continue the unilateral disengagement effort but apply it to the West Bank. Instead, Olmert wound up negotiating intensively with the Palestinians within an American-sponsored framework launched in 2007 at Annapolis. How Netanyahu proceeds with the Palestinians ultimately depends on the realities he will confront in the future and the choices he will be asked to make. Many actors and variables will affect those choices. Intentions are important. But ultimately, timing is everything.

Significant Middle East Developments Syria. Earlier today, Burhan Ghalioun offered to resign as head of the Syrian National Council, the country’s primary opposition group. In making the announcement, Ghalioun called on the Syrian opposition “to break the cycle of conflicts and preserve unity.” Ghalioun’s resignation, just two days after he was reelected to head the SNC, was nonetheless reportedly due to the mounting criticism of Ghalioun’s leadership within the opposition. Some constituents threatened to leave if their concerns were not properly addressed. Meanwhile, violence within Syria continued with reports that fifteen people were killed by army shelling today in Rastan, and dozens more reportedly killed earlier this week. Some twenty-three Syrian soldiers were killed by rebels in Rastan on Monday. Syria’s fighting also spilled over into Lebanon this week with Tripoli in the north the scene of days of bloody clashes between Bashar al-Assad supporters and backers of Syria’s uprising, leaving at least six dead and some one hundred wounded. Despite the violence, President Assad announced in a rare interview on Tuesday with Russian television that Syria faced no real domestic opposition. He attributed recent violence to foreign-backed terrorists saying, “We have an acute problem with terrorism.” Noteworthy U.S. Foreign Policy Developments Israel. Israeli defense minister Ehud Barak met with U.S. defense secretary Leon Panetta in Washington today and reportedly discussed Iranian developments. The two officials discussed the United States providing $680 million in additional funding over three years for Israel’s Iron Dome missile system. The money would be enough for Israel to buy three or four more batteries and interceptors for the short-range rocket defense program. Barak thanked the United States at the meeting for its “complete commitment to Israel’s security” and said that additional missile defense would provide Israel’s leaders the political and diplomatic leverage to "prevent a significant escalation." Yemen. President Obama signed an executive order on Wednesday providing the Treasury Department the authority to freeze the U.S.-based assets of anyone who undermines Yemen’s stability. Obama administration officials explained that the order will help them to sideline and remove relatives and supporters of former president Ali Abdullah Saleh from positions of power. It is applicable to anyone who has “engaged in acts that directly or indirectly threaten the peace, security or stability of Yemen” and reflects concerns that political instability could be taken advantage of by members of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. Quotes of the Week “Egypt will offer an example to the world of free and fair presidential elections that (reflect) the will of the people.” – Egyptian field marshal Hussein Tantawi on Wednesday “The great dream of the peoples of the region is to see the day when borders disappear with a union that creates one Gulf.” – Bahraini prime minister Khalifa bin Salman Al Khalifa on Sunday prior to a meeting of Gulf Cooperation Council leaders “If the world community set the threshold that even if fully accepted, let alone only partially accepted by the Iranians, to keep moving toward nuclear military program, that’s ridiculous, a delusion.” – Israeli defense minister Ehud Barak in a CNN interview on Wednesday “We have seen nothing in the past months except political incompetence in the SNC and a total lack of consensus between its vision and that of the revolutionaries.” - Syria’s Local Coordination Committees in a statement today While We Were Looking Elsewhere Iran. Iranian officials met with IAEA representatives in Vienna on Monday for the first time in three months. Saeed Jalili, Iran’s top nuclear negotiator, called on the West to end its “pressure strategy” and said the Iranian people await actions to secure their trust. The Vienna talks were in preparation for the resumption of the upcoming P5+1 negotiations next Tuesday (May 23) in Baghdad. Meanwhile, a panel of UN experts submitted a report on Wednesday to the UN Security Council’s Iran sanctions committee detailing illegal Iranian arms shipments, including two seized shipments to Syria in the past year. The report also said that sanctions on Iran are slowing its procurement of essential items for its nuclear program. GCC. The leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states met on Monday to discuss a Saudi proposal to turn the bloc into a union, a process that would likely begin with Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. The group did not reach agreement to integrate the six GCC states, with talks on that proposal postponed until the next GCC meeting in December. However, the discussion stirred a public row between Bahrain and Iran as Iranian parliamentarians condemned the potential Saudi-Bahraini union. Officials in Tehran urged Iranians to protest on Friday against “the American plan to annex Bahrain to Saudi Arabia and express their anger against the lackey regimes of Al-Khalifa and Al-Saud.” Bahrain’s Foreign Ministry sent Iran a letter of protest in response. West Bank. Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas swore in a new cabinet on Wednesday consisting of eleven new officials. The appointment came more than a year after the last cabinet resigned in February 2011. Salam Fayyad retained his role as prime minister, but relinquished his second role as financial minister to Nabil Kassis, a former Bir Zeit University president and political independent. Today, Abbas issued a decree authorizing the new government to hold municipal elections in stages in the West Bank. The last round of local elections was held in 2005. Both moves drew harsh criticism from Hamas, with spokesperson Fawzi Barhum saying that the steps “strengthen the division” and called on Abbas to implement the Doha agreement between Fatah and Hamas calling for a new interim unity government. Abbas replied, “If we have an agreement with Hamas tomorrow or afterwards, this government will not have any role… But I cannot wait forever.” Egypt. The leader of Egypt’s ruling military council, Field Marshal Tantawi, vowed on Wednesday to secure a fair vote in Egypt’s upcoming presidential elections which begin on May 23. Tantawi said that the military would retain its “duty” to safeguard Egypt from internal disturbances as well as external threats. This Week in History This week marks the eighty-ninth anniversary of Britain’s formal recognition of the Emirate of Transjordan as a state under the leadership of Emir Abdullah. The Emirate of Transjordan was established as a British protectorate in April 1921 following the historic Cairo Conference. Transjordan and Palestine were placed under one mandate, although Britain administered the land west of the Jordan River as Palestine and the land east of the river as Transjordan. In May of 1923, Transjordan was formally recognized as an independent mandate under Emir Abdullah. Under this arrangement, the British loosened some of its mandatory control, limiting its role to financial, military, and foreign policy matters. The first Anglo-Transjordan treaty was completed in 1928, which granted Transjordan nominal independence, though Britain maintained a military presence and control of foreign affairs. Transjordan finally became an independent kingdom in 1946, when it was officially established as the Hashemite Kingdom of Transjordan. Statistic of the Week According to a Rasmussen Reports survey, nearly two-thirds (63 percent) of U.S. voters polled believe there is a conflict today between Western civilization and Islamic nations. The survey also found that only 27 percent of the respondents believe that it is at least somewhat likely that countries such as Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia will become free and democratic over the next few years. Of that group, only 3 percent think it is very likely to occur. Sixty-two percent think such a democratic transformation is not likely.

Israel’s political landscape was just redrawn last week with the surprise agreement between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Kadima party head Shaul Mofaz to form a new government rather than hold national elections in September. I discussed the implications of this development with former New York Times diplomatic correspondent Bernard Gwertzman in an interview featured on CFR.org and published below. Domestic Focus for Israel’s Coalition May 14, 2012 Interviewee: Robert M. Danin, Eni Enrico Mattei Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies, CFR Interviewer: Bernard Gwertzman, Consulting Editor, CFR.org Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former defense minister Shaul Mofaz, the head of the Kadima Party, announced on May 8 a national unity government that will be the largest coalition in Israel’s history and will remain in power until elections in 2013. The sudden agreement by Israel’s two leading parties, which forestalled new parliamentary elections that had been scheduled for September, was made primarily for domestic reasons, not to prepare for war against Iran, says CFR Middle East expert Robert M. Danin. Danin says Israelis’ priorities are "economic and social." While Iran is something to which the Israeli security establishment led by Netanyahu pays close attention, says Danin, "there is not a widespread clamoring for a strike against Iran at a popular level within Israel." The emphasis on domestic issues also eclipses the peace process with the Palestinians, says Danin, noting that "there is a widespread and shared sense that the system of governance needs to change. Only then do they talk about promoting a peace process." What’s the most important aspect of this unprecedented arrangement between Netanyahu and Mofaz? The most significant aspect is that you now will have the largest coalition government in Israel’s history. Some 94 members of the Knesset’s 120 members will be inside the government. This makes it a very strong government, and it means that no one party can bring down the government. This gives Prime Minister Netanyahu tremendous stability and tremendous room to maneuver. He and Mofaz had a press conference in which he outlined four areas they wanted to work on. Could you outline these? The four elements were: 1) promoting legislation to bring the ultra-Orthodox into national service within two months; 2) changing the system of government in Israel by the end of the year; 3) passing a budget; and 4) promoting what they called a "reasonable peace process." What’s significant and interesting about this--and I have just returned from Israel--is that if you read outside commentary you would think that Israel is at the center of a regional tsunami because of the Arab uprisings, the Syrian bloodshed, and instability all around. But the priorities in Israeli politics right now are domestic, economic, and social, and that’s reflected in those four agenda items. Three out of the four items are purely domestic issues having to do with governance and the way Israel is run, either in terms of bringing one segment of society into national service or passing a budget or actually reforming the system of governance, which is a recognition that there is a widespread and shared sense that the system of governance needs to change. Only then do they talk about promoting a peace process. I’m always confused about the fact that there are so many parties in the Israeli government. Is this an effort to narrow the number of parties? Not necessarily, but we have yet to learn exactly what they have in mind. Overall, what you’ve had in Israel is a system in which, because of the precariousness of the parliamentary system, it’s very difficult for the prime minister and his ruling party to carry out its agenda. It needs a coalition to bring that about, and what you’ve had are coalitions of not necessarily like-minded parties, but rather a coalition in which deals are made, in which smaller interests are addressed. There’s a large-scale consensus amongst "middle Israel," the vast majority of the Israeli populace that lives in the coastal plain of Israel, that special interests get a disproportionate amount of attention and resources thrown at them in order to maintain political coalitions. That’s what they want to try to change. The ultra-Orthodox have been exempt from national service. Will it be difficult to change this, or is bringing them into the national service something the new coalition can achieve? There is the potential for significant change. Israel has changed its system several times. Israel originally had the electoral system it has today, but from 1996 to 2001, they changed it. They enacted a system in which the prime minister was elected separately from the party list. This proved to be worse than the previous system, and so they went back to the status quo ante in 2001. Still, the fact that they were able to change the system before shows it can be done. Now there’s a yearning for even more dramatic change. The fact that Mofaz and Netanyahu basically have an agreement that this government will last until the end of its tenure, which is late next year, means that there’s a significant amount of time. One of the significant elements of Israeli politics is that for the last several years, Prime Minister Netanyahu’s been looking over his shoulder at the Yisrael Beiteinu party, headed by Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, which has had fifteen seats in the Knesset. This agreement frees up Netanyahu from being dependent on any single party anymore for his government. It means that he has a lot of space and power to really bring about dramatic change, and he’s identified domestic change as the real national agenda. Mofaz in the past has been more publicly eager for an agreed solution with thePalestinians than Netanyahu has seemed to be. Will this open the way for substantive new negotiations with the Palestinian Authority? There are two important elements here. First, the center of gravity within the coalition now has shifted more towards Israel’s center. Bringing in a centrist party of twenty-nine really tilts the scales towards the center, and the fact that Kadima does want an active peace process is going to enable Prime Minister Netanyahu to pursue a more activist approach. He won’t be hamstrung by the far right. The second element is that Mofaz has reportedly been anointed to explore possibilities with the Palestinians. So that argues for renewed efforts with the Palestinians. That would be welcomed in the United States, where the administration has seemed to shelve its prior interest in Israeli-Palestinian peace talks. Another significant international issue that has been the topic of speculation is whether this accord will reduce the likelihood of Israel pursuing military action against the Iranian nuclear establishment on its own. I don’t think this accord was done necessarily to set the stage for action against Iran. That’s the way many observers are reading it. I see the accord more in terms of domestic politics, but it does give the prime minister much greater freedom of maneuver on foreign policy, and traditionally Israel has formed strong national unity governments on the eve of wars. This is a peacetime, broad-based national unity government, so Israel is better placed politically to take military action if it wants to, but I don’t think that this is necessarily an indicator. But it means that Prime Minister Netanyahu has a broad-based support for not taking military action if that’s what this government decides to do. So you don’t see Iran as the basis for this accord? It’s very hard to extrapolate meaning vis-à-vis Iran from this agreement. The arrangement was driven by domestic considerations. A majority of Israelis polled as Israel was preparing for elections did not want elections right now. So the move itself is actually popular. Israelis did not necessarily want to go to the polls right now. There had been an intense debate in Israel on why he [Netanyahu] was going for elections right now. One school had it that he wanted to have elections prior to the American elections, because either electorally he’d do better now or he’d be able to renew his mandate and still have time to take action on Iran with a new mandate. But the more compelling explanation has to do with Kadima [an offshoot of the Likud party and founded by former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon in 2005 to support his unilateral withdrawal from Gaza]. The Kadima leader, former Prime Minister Tzipi Livni, had just been replaced by Mofaz. Kadima was polling extremely badly. It looked as though, if elections were held in September, Kadima would be reduced significantly in size in the Knesset. Netanyahu saw an opportunity to achieve what he had long wanted, which was to bring Kadima back into his government. Originally, Netanyahu wanted to do it through elections, by destroying them electorally, but this agreement does the same thing, without elections. It re-empowers and re-strengthens Likud, and I wouldn’t be surprised if in 2013, when Israel does go to elections, Kadima may no longer exist. Kadima may actually be part of Likud again, which is one of the reasons many people are upset by this. Mofaz is an Iranian Jew himself. How eager is he to attack Iran? There is not a widespread clamoring for a strike against Iran at a popular level within Israel. What was so striking in visiting Israel is there was just no sense that you’re visiting a country that is about to go to war, which is not to say that’s not the case. But the point is that Iran does not dominate popular sentiment. There’s not a sense of either "We’re about to go to war " and that either we should or we shouldn’t. It just isn’t a top-level issue on the national agenda. But as reflected in those four pillars of the coalition agreement, it is not at the top of national priorities at a popular level. To be sure, this is something that’s consuming the prime minister and his national security team, and they feel a tremendous weight of responsibility for dealing with this. So I don’t want to diminish it either. But at a popular level, Israel does not feel like a country that’s about to go to war, nor are Israelis consumed with this issue of Iran either way.

Significant Middle East Developments Israel. In a move that caught virtually all Israelis by surprise, prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced early Tuesday morning that he was forming a new unity government with the Kadima party and its new leader Shaul Mofaz (my Tuesday morning analysis available here). Israelis had been bracing for new national elections. As Netanyahu and Mofaz met secretly to hammer out the deal on Monday night, Knesset members were working to dissolve the government in preparation for a likely September 4 vote. Mofaz’s Kadima brings an additional twenty-eight Knesset seats to the Likud-led coalition. The new government will be comprised of ninety-four of the available one hundred and twenty Knesset seats, making it the largest ruling coalition in Israel’s history. Netanyahu will now serve out the remainder of his term and elections will likely be held in October 2013. At a joint press conference with Mofaz on Tuesday, Netanyahu said, “we’re pulling together for four main issues: to pass a fair and equal replacement of the Tal Law; to pass a responsible budget; to change the system of governance; and, lastly, to try and promote a responsible peace process." Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas’ spokesman, Nabil Abu Rudeineh, responded on Tuesday saying “This is the right time for the Israeli government to reach peace with the Palestinian people by immediately accepting the requirements of the peace process.” Syria. UN special envoy Kofi Annan briefed the UN Security Council on Tuesday, expressing concern over the continuing Syrian violence and warning that the international community is in a “race against time” to prevent Syria from sliding into a full civil war. A day later a bomb hit a military convoy transporting the chief of the UN observer mission Major General Robert Mood, wounding six Syrian soldiers. This morning brought the single deadliest assault of Syria’s unrest when two car bombs exploded outside an intelligence compound in Damascus killing at least fifty-five people and injuring another three hundred and seventy-two. Meanwhile, Syrians voted in parliamentary elections Monday. The Assad regime promoted the vote as an opening of the political system, but the election was boycotted by Syria’s opposition. The Syrian National Council slammed the regime for holding the vote, saying “Whoever drowns Syria in blood, displaces two million Syrians and shoots at the Syrian people, does not have the legitimacy to draw up a constitution or an electoral law, or to run elections.” Noteworthy U.S. Foreign Policy Developments Yemen. U.S. intelligence officials announced on Tuesday that a Saudi double agent had infiltrated Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and foiled a plot to smuggle a bomb aboard a U.S.-bound aircraft. The agent had provided critical information that allowed the CIA on Sunday to target a drone strike and kill Fahd Mohammed Ahmed al-Quso, the new operations leader of Al Qaeda and a suspect in the bombing of the U.S.S. Cole. Also on Tuesday, the Pentagon announced that the U.S. has recently resumed on-the-ground military training to aid Yemen’s fight against Al Qaeda. Training activities had been suspended during the recent political upheaval. Syria. Assistant Secretary of State for Population, Refugees and Migration, Anne C. Richard, told reporters in Amman today that the U.S. has allocated an extra seven million dollars to aid Syrian refugees, bringing the total to nearly forty million. The assistance will be funneled through international and local agencies inside Syria and in surrounding countries, including Jordan. Richard also said that the U.S. has no plan to accelerate the movement of Syrian people to the U.S. so long as they are safe, and expressed hopes that they will be able to return to their homes soon. Quotes of the Week “We support the Annan plan but if someone were to ask me what my hopes are, I would say I have lost hope…What can 50 observers do? They can’t visit even a small part of a region of the country.” – Turkish prime minister Erdogan on Tuesday “Not one of the leaders of the occupation can be classified as worse than the other. Attempts to categorize them as doves and hawks is incorrect, they are all fond of shedding Palestinian blood.” – Mahmoud Zahar, a leader of Hamas, in an interview with the Ma’an news service on Wednesday “A basic right of our people is being violated. The right of being able to choose our leadership.” – Palestinian prime minister Salam Fayyad in an interview on Tuesday While We Were Looking Elsewhere Algeria. Algerians went to the polls this morning for parliamentary elections for the first time since unrest hit the region last year. The final results are due tomorrow, with turnout estimates due after polling stations close tonight. Many Algerians doubt the integrity of the process and are planning to skip the vote, despite assurances from President Abdelaziz Bouteflika that the election will be the most open in the country’s history, with five hundred international observers scattered across more than forty-eight thousand polling stations. Iraq. Interpol announced on Tuesday that it had issued an international Red Notice for the arrest of Iraq’s Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi “on suspicion of guiding and financing terrorist attacks.” In response, Turkish deputy prime minister Bekir Bozdag said on Wednesday that Turkey would not extradite the Iraqi vice president who fled Baghdad in December and has been in Istanbul since April 9. Hashemi’s trial in Iraq was postponed again today for the second time until May 15. Bahrain. Bahraini authorities reportedly suspended talks this week with the country’s opposition and have announced stiffer measures against illegal protests. Abduljalil Khalil, a senior member of the opposition party Wefaq, said that all talks have ceased. Bahraini government spokesman Sheikh Abdulaziz bin Mubarak Al Khalifa said that the opposition must first declare that it is ready for talks without preconditions. Khalifa also said that “because of the escalation in violence, we are looking into the perpetrators and people who use print, broadcast and social media to encourage illegal protest and violence around the country…If applying the law means tougher action, then so be it.”  Secretary of State Clinton hosted Bahraini crown prince Salman bin Hamad al-Khalifa in Washington on Wednesday. She noted the steps taken to implement the recommendations of the Bahrain Independent Commission of Inquiry while encouraging the Bahraini government to champion a clear process that will lead to reform. Libya. The Tripoli headquarters of the country’s interim government came under attack on Tuesday by armed men claiming to be former rebels angry over unpaid stipends. One guard was killed and four others wounded before security forces were able to repel the attackers. Libyan prime minister Abdurrahim al-Kib, speaking about the attack in a televised speech, vowed that the government would not negotiate under “threat of arms.” This Week in History This week marks the ninety-sixth anniversary of the 1916 Sykes-Picot Agreement, the secret understanding between Great Britain and France, with the assent of imperial Russia, to partition the territory of the former Ottoman Empire. The agreement allotted Lebanon and parts of Syria to France, southern Mesopotamia and the Mediterranean ports of Haifa and Acre to Great Britain, and the region in-between to become a unitary Arab state or confederation of Arab states under French and British influence. Arab rulers did not learn of the agreement until its text was published by the Soviet Union in 1917, creating deep resentment that lingers to this day, despite the official abrogation of the Sykes-Picot Agreement at the Conference of San Remo in 1920. Statistic of the Week According to an Arab Technical News Gateway report, the number of Arab users of social networking sites has increased to record rates in 2012. Arab Facebook users constitute 12 percent of the world’s total users, an 8 percent increase from two years ago. More than 1.3 million Arabs currently use Twitter. Saudi Arabia has the largest share of Twitter users with 393,000 employing the service. Eighty-eight percent of the Arab world’s tweets produced in March came from Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE, and Bahrain.