Israel

I just returned from Israel and the West Bank where I accompanied the Quartet Representative, former Prime Minister Tony Blair, for meetings with Israeli and Palestinian leaders. Israelis and Palestinians already were already absorbed by the impending election campaign, having rapidly internalized an apparent decision by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to dissolve his government and hold elections on September 4. Several hours ago, early Tuesday morning Israel time, Netanyahu surprised everyone in Israel by reaching agreement to form a national unity government with the new leader of Kadima, Shaul Mofaz. Instead of holding elections on September 4, the prime minister instead reportedly plans to serve out the remainder of his term, which is set to expire late in 2013.  Under the agreement, the centrist Kadima party will join Netanyahu’s government with Mofaz, who just took over as party head two weeks ago, likely to become deputy prime minister and minister without portfolio. Israelis will awake in a few hours to the surprise news. While many Israeli politicians will denounce Netanyahu’s decision to abort the elections, in reality, many of them will be relieved. Netanyahu was taking Israel to the polls right now precisely because his political standing is extremely strong right now. For Mofaz’s Kadima, the agreement provides relief, given that polls suggested that it would lose two-thirds of its current 28 Knesset seats. It could mean the end of the party, however, if Netanyahu succeeds in reintegrating some of the former Likud members who had joined Kadima when Prime Minister Sharon formed the party in 2005. It is within the hard right in Israel that some of the greatest dissatisfaction could emerge. Kadima and Likud combined now hold almost a simple majority in the Knesset. Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu just lost its three-year-old veto over any Netanyahu initiatives. Some within the prime minister’s own Likud will be also displeased, particularly if they are forced to give up cabinet seats or other prized positions to make room for their new Kadima partners. Those to the right of Netanyahu will also now worry that the prime minister may tack to the center on issues related to the Palestinians. For Defense Minister Barak, the agreement provides a new lifeline, since it was not clear that his new breakaway faction from Labor would pick up a single seat in the next election. Labor, now headed by Shelly Yacimovich, had picked up a number of seats in the polls, but was nowhere close to being able to pose a serious challenge to Netanyahu. With Kadima now in the government, Labor will return to the role it has mainly played since 1977, that of being the leader of the opposition. This could help awaken the somnambulant left in Israel. As Israel enters its summer, Netanyahu’s greatest challenge could emerge from elements within the country not represented in the Knesset: the social protest movement. Last summer, Israel witnessed unprecedented social protests that brought hundreds of thousands of Israelis to the streets for a number of months. These demonstrators rallied against skyrocketing housing and living costs, government corruption, and increased income disparities. In recent days, the grass-roots leadership of the social movement had begun to be courted by some of Israel’s political parties in the hope that these largely unaffiliated demonstrators could be mobilized behind the traditional parties. With elections no longer impending, the social activists may see the only alternative open to them this summer as being a return to the streets. Such a development will be no boon to Netanyahu’s free-market oriented Likud could leave the prime minister wishing he had proceeded with his plan to hold early elections at a time when a relatively easy victory appeared almost assured.

Significant Middle East Developments Syria. The United Nations announced today that the three-week old truce in Syria "is not holding." Major General Robert Mood, chief of the UN Supervision Mission to Syria, told Britain’s Sky News that “This is not easy and we are seeing--by the action, by explosions, by firing--that the cease-fire is really a shaky one.” He went on to say that “what we are also seeing on the ground is that where we have observers present, they have a calming effect and we’re also seeing that those operating on the ground, they take advice from our observers.” His remarks follow UN under secretary for peacekeeping operations Herve Ladsous’s statement on Tuesday that Syrian forces have kept heavy weapons in cities and that both the Syrian military and rebel forces have violated the truce. He also said the UN had recruited only about half the number of the three hundred monitors it had hoped for in Syria but that commitments were still coming in. Meanwhile, a protest on a university campus turned deadly when Syrian security forces stormed a dormitory at Aleppo University last night. Syrian activists report that security forces fired tear gas and live ammunition to disperse students gathered in protest; at least four have been killed and more than fifty students were arrested. Aleppo province saw further violence yesterday when rebel forces ambushed Syrian soldiers in the village of Al-Rai, killing fifteen troops. Meanwhile, Human Rights Watch released a report on Wednesday which accuses the Syrian military of committing war crimes in Syria’s northern Idlib province just before a ceasefire went into effect on April 12. Israel. Prime Minister Netanyahu has come under unusual criticism of his handling of Iran by a number of former intelligence and security officials. Yuval Diskin, who recently retired as head of the Israeli Shin Bet security service, said on Friday that he had “no trust in the current Israeli leadership" and condemned the “messianic leadership” of Netanyahu and his defense minister Ehud Barak, saying they were “presenting the public with a mirage” concerning the policy options on Iran’s nuclearization. Former Mossad chief Meir Dagan echoed these statements at a conference in New York on Sunday saying that Diskin had “spoke his truth” when he attacked Netanyahu’s leadership. Dagan has also declared that “an aerial attack against Iran’s nuclear reactor would be foolish.” Gabi Ashkenazi, a former head of the Israeli Defense Forces, called Dagan and Diskin his partners in “stopping Bibi and Barak” from setting out on “any dangerous adventure.” Current IDF chief of staff Benny Gantz told Haaretz last week "Clearly, the more the Iranians progress the worse the situation is. This is a critical year, but not necessarily ’go, no-go,’” a statement that notably contrasts with Netanyahu’s stated timeline. The wave of criticism comes at a crucial time as Israel’s Knesset appears poised to call for new elections. A Likud official said this week that Netanyahu will announce on Sunday that national elections will be moved up to September 4. Defense Minister Ehud Barak announced yesterday that the prospect of imminent elections would not affect Israel’s strategy for dealing with Iran’s nuclear program. All this falls against the backdrop of personal grief for the prime minister; Netanyahu’s father, the renowned historian Benzion Netanyahu, passed away on Monday at the age of 102. Egypt. Egypt’s campaign for the presidential election officially began on Monday with the news that the Salafi party al-Nour had endorsed Abdul Muniem Abul Fotouh. The former Muslim Brother Fotouh was also endorsed by Wael Ghonim, the young Google executive who became famous during the uprising last year. Al-Nour’s announcement is an apparent setback to Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohamed Morsi’s campaign. Meanwhile protesters camped out in Abbasseya Square were attacked Saturday night by an unknown group who threw rocks and Molotov cocktails into the crowd, killing one and injuring one hundred and nineteen. Violence has flared every night since then with twenty people killed in clashes Tuesday night and at least another eleven Wednesday night. Both Abdul Muniem Abul Fotouh and Mohammed Mursi called off campaign events on Wednesday in protest of the authorities’ handling of the events. Meanwhile the Freedom and Justice party called for a cabinet reshuffle within forty-eight hours on Sunday and then suspended all sessions of parliament for a week. SCAF members responded on Monday by denying any intention of a cabinet reshuffle, but did announce on Wednesday that the military may hand over power on May 24 if the president wins in the first round. Noteworthy U.S. Foreign Policy Developments The UAE. U.S. officials announced on Monday that the United States had deployed a number of highly advanced F-22 fighter jets to the Al-Dhafra air base in the United Arab Emirates amid deepening tensions between the UAE and Iran. Air force major Mary Danner-Jones said in a statement: "The United States Air Force has deployed F-22s to Southwest Asia. Such deployments strengthen military-to-military relationships, promote sovereign and regional security, improve combined tactical air operations, and enhance interoperability of forces, equipment and procedures." Iran criticized the move saying that it will “endanger the region’s security.” Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast continued saying: "We do not in any way approve the presence of foreign forces in the region. We advise the regional countries against providing a basis for their presence." Syria and Iran. The U.S. Treasury Department announced today that Daniel Glaser, the assistant secretary for terrorist financing, will visit Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates during a ten-day visit to discuss the threat of terrorist financing and efforts to implement sanctions against Iran and Syria. A Treasury Department statement announced that Glaser will "highlight the need for governments and financial sectors to remain vigilant against attempts by the Syrian and Iranian regimes to evade multilateral sanctions." Quotes of the Week "We stress that Saudi Arabia and the rest of the council countries are standing in a unified line with Bahrain and the UAE to protect sovereignty and stability, considering their security a part of the council’s security as a whole." – Saudi Arabia’s crown prince Nayef in a speech at a meeting of GCC interior ministers in Riyadh on Wednesday “The Persian Gulf region is the home of all of us, and the nations on its southern and northern shores are permanent inhabitants and inevitable neighbors, and should accept that facts of geography and proximity are unchangeable and that peaceful and brotherly coexistence is an undeniable necessity.” – Iranian foreign minister Ali Akbar Salehi wrote in a message to the National Persian Gulf day celebration in Bushehr on Sunday "The cease-fire, announced on the basis of Kofi Annan’s plan and supported by the UN Security Council, is not being stable yet, mostly because the armed opposition groups are trying to stage provocations, explosions, terror attacks and shootings," – Russian foreign minister Lavrov told the Rossiya-24 TV channel last Friday “The (Egyptian ) army is weakening, losing its autonomy to the benefit of the government. That is bad for us. It is vital that we maintain the relationship with Egypt at any price." - former Israeli defense minister and national infrastructures minister, and current Labor Party MK, Benjamin "Fouad" Ben-Eliezer said in an interview with Haaretz While We Were Looking Elsewhere Jordan. King Abdullah swore in a new thirty-member cabinet on Wednesday following the resignation of his prime minister Awn Khasawneh last week. The new prime minister, Fayez Tarawneh, has been tasked with preparing for parliamentary elections at the end of the year. His appointment has been met with criticism. Jamil Abu Baker, a spokesman for the Muslim Brotherhood, called it “a set-back for reforms. It entrenches a pre-Arab Spring mentality... The prime minister is conservative and his views and position on reform are well-known.” Bahrain. A Bahraini appeals court on Monday approved a retrial for twenty-one opposition activists, including hunger striker Abdulhadi al-Khawaja. Eight of the activists, including Khawaja, were given life sentences in June by military courts for their roles in last year’s uprising. The judge ruled that those currently in prison will remain there until a verdict in a new trial. No date has been announced for the retrial. On Wednesday, King Hamad accused foreign media of exaggerating the unrest in Bahrain and inciting violence. Libya. The head of the electoral committee, Nuri Abbar, announced the opening of voter and candidate registration centers on Tuesday. He said that there are over 1,350 centers spread across the country. Elections for a constituent assembly that will choose a panel of experts to draft a constitution are scheduled for June. Libyan authorities also passed a law on Thursday that granted immunity to former revolutionaries for any act “made necessary by the February 17 revolution.” Meanwhile, on Monday Libya formally requested the ICC to declare the case of former dictator Muammar Qaddafi’s son Seif al-Islam’s case inadmissible and quash the surrender request so that he may be tried in country. Libya and the International Criminal Court have been at odds over who has the right to try Seif since his apprehension in November. Hamas. A meeting in Cairo between Hamas chief Khaled Meshaal and senior Fatah official Azzam al-Ahmed in Cairo failed to make any progress toward a unity deal, according to Palestinian officials. One negotiator, speaking anonymously, said that two hours of talks Wednesday night, a bid following up on the unity agreement reached in Doha on February 6, produced “nothing new.” This Week in History This week marks Iran’s celebration of National Persian Gulf Day, commemorating the expulsion of the Portuguese from the Strait of Hormuz in 1622 under the Safavid king Shah Abbas I. The holiday also celebrates the “Persian” aspect of the Gulf’s name, in response to perceived attempts to erode its ancient imperial history by neighboring Arab states and their Western allies through attempts to change the name to either the “Arabian Gulf” or simply “the Gulf.” In 2004, Iran banned the sale of the National Geographic’s Eighth Edition Atlas of the World because it included “Arabian Gulf” as an alternate name in parenthesis underneath “Persian Gulf” on a map. Iranian newspapers note that the “Persian Gulf” has been thus named since the Achaemenid Empire and is the waterway’s only legitimate name. This year’s celebration of National Persian Gulf Day comes amidst a diplomatic row with the states of the Arabian Peninsula over territorial rights to the islands of Abu Musa, the Greater Tunb, and the Lesser Tunb. A ceremony was held in the coastal town of Bushehr complete with a parade of naval warships and vessels. Statistic of the Week According to the 2012 ASDA’A Burson-Marsteller Arab Youth Survey, being paid a fair wage and owning a home have supplanted living in a democratic country as the top two priorities for young people living in the Middle East. Eighty-two percent of respondents chose being paid a far wage as very important followed by 65 percent that chose owning their own home. In 2011, nearly 70 percent of respondents selected living in a democratic state as one of their top priorities, but this year the number dropped to 58 percent. The poll also found that 40 percent picked the UAE as the preferred role model for their own country, compared to 28 percent that chose Turkey and 18 percent that chose Saudi Arabia.  

I remember in 2008 sitting in the office of Abdel Monem Said Aly who at the time was the director of the Al Ahram Center for Strategic Studies when the subject of the Sinai came up. It was a few months’ time after Hamas had blown a hole in the wall that separates Gaza from the Egyptian frontier, resulting in thousands of Palestinians rushing into the Sinai to buy supplies and seek medical care.  Abdel Monem was not unmoved by the plight of the Palestinians, but he was clearly worried about Egyptian security.  He asked me what I thought would happen if a Palestinian extremist group were able to infiltrate Israel from the Sinai and carry out some sort of deadly attack.  “How would Israel respond?” Abdel Monem asked rhetorically.  He knew that the Israelis would respond, but how, where, and to what extent were unknowns that clearly unsettled him.  At one end of the escalation ladder, the Israelis military might try to push into the Sinai much like the Israel Defense Force’s periodic advances in Lebanon or the Turkish military’s incursions into northern Iraq.  This would no doubt put the Egypt-Israel peace treaty and thus Egyptian security in jeopardy. Perhaps the Israelis would use some other tactic, but either way this would create a terrible security dilemma for Egypt’s leaders.  The Egyptians could absorb the blow and be forced to confront additional opprobrium of their people or they could respond and risk a conflict with Israel that they would likely lose. Abdel Monem later became the chairman of the board of the government-controlled al Ahram Foundation and was thus by definition part of the regime.  He was pushed out of that lofty position after the uprising, though he continues to have a column at the daily newspaper, al Ahram.  Abdel Monem is a member of the widely detested felool—remnants—but he was and still is a very good strategic analyst.   Why the meditation on a meeting that happened four years ago?  You would never know it from the msm, twitter, or anywhere else, but Abdel Monem’s Sinai scenarios could become a reality soon.  On Wednesday, the IDF mobilized six reserve battalions (an additional 16 were authorized and will be mobilized, if necessary) as a precautionary measure given the potential for instability in the Syria and Egypt to affect Israeli security. This issue has been simmering for since last summer, but it seems to be heating up now.  On April 24,the Israeli prime minister called the Sinai the “Wild West.”  Netanyahu was responding the bombing of the el Arish –Ashkelon pipeline—the fourteenth—but Israel’s concerns run deeper than a commercial deal that is now in jeopardy.  As I wrote last August, the Sinai is a haven for drug smuggling, human trafficking, gun running, and extremists of all types, ranging from Egyptian takfiris and Palestinian jihadists to al Qaeda sympathizers.  The obvious answer to the problem of security in the Sinai is to deploy more Egyptian forces in the area, a step that is subject to Israeli approval under the Camp David Accords and the Egypt-Israel peace treaty.  The Israelis have actually been forward leaning on the issue, giving the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces the green light for Operation Eagle last summer and Israel’s Defense Minister, Ehud Barak, signaled that Jerusalem might be willing to revisit the restrictions on Egyptian forces in the Sinai. So if the problem is not necessarily the Israelis, what is it?  In a word, Egypt. The reason for Israel’s mobilization is not only because the IDF does not believe that the Egyptian armed forces are up to the task of cleaning up the mess in the Sinai, but the Egyptian military happens to share that view.  By all measures, Operation Eagle failed and the Egyptians have no capacity to plan and execute a sustained military effort in the Sinai that would improve the security environment there.  As a result, Israeli leaders have clearly determined that if the next rocket to land on Eilat kills someone, they are going to have to deal with the problem themselves.  The Israelis have every right to defend themselves, but an Israeli attack on Egypt soil would not end well for anyone.  I guarantee it. For I don’t know how many months, I have been counseling policymakers to take a “less is more” approach to post-Mubarak Egypt. The Sinai is the one area where the opposite is the case.  The peace treaty is a pillar of U.S. policy in the Middle East and as a result, it is incumbent upon Washington to do everything it can to mitigate anything that could result in violence between Egypt and Israel. What’s needed now is a full-court diplomatic press.  To start, the Multinational Force Observers (MFO) contingent in the Sinai need to be bolstered politically and Washington should grant it a higher profile in coordinating between Israelis and Egyptians even if the IDF and the Egyptian armed forces already enjoy pretty good military-to-military relations. The MFO, a contingent of 1,656 personnel from 12 different countries, is there to observe the peace treaty and ensure that no one violates its terms.  (As an aside, I am glad that no one listened to Donald Rumsfeld in 2002 when he proposed withdrawing U.S. support and personnel from the MFO in the Sinai.  Of course, he didn’t know that Mubarak would fall and the durability of the Egypt-Israel peace treaty would be thrown into question.) Next, the United States should actually engage in some Sinai-related contingency planning.  I understand there are some pro forma scenarios floating around, but no serious “what if” planning.  I know the gears of the U.S. government are not all that well-greased, but it is time to get on it, as they say.  Third, the President needs to send some trusted additional advisors with good Egypt-Israel credentials out to Cairo and Jerusalem for some extended hand holding.  Ambassadors Anne Patterson (Cairo) and Dan Shapiro (Tel Aviv) are extraordinarily talented and by all measures they handled last August’s violence along the Egypt-Israel border with the kind of professional cool you want.  It would, however, signal the seriousness with which the United States takes this situation if the president dispatched some envoys to bolster his ambassadors.  There is clearly mistrust between the United States and Israel, but that does not mean Washington cannot work with the Israelis on something as critically important as Sinai security and the maintenance of the peace treaty.  Remember, George H. W. Bush and Yitzhak Shamir could barely be in the same room with each other, but the United States was able to convince the Israelis of the strategic benefit of holding their fire in the face of Saddam Hussein’s Scud attacks in March 1991.  Finally, the United States needs to get down to business and help Egypt clean up the Sinai.  The Egyptians may be resistant and slow to alter their war fighting doctrine, but it’s in their long-terms interests to stabilize the Sinai. If the United States does not wake up to the danger that the Sinai poses and the Israelis are forced to respond to a terrorist attack from the Sinai, the Egypt-Israel peace treaty is over.  

A compilation of reactions to Mona el-Tahawy’s controversial piece, “Why Do They Hate Us?”. Quinn Mecham writes a policy brief for POMED on a strategy for sustained engagement with Islamist parties. The first in a four-part series on Israel’s wall from +972 Magazine.

Significant Middle East Developments Syria. An uneasy UN-brokered ceasefire went into effect at dawn in Syria this morning. Activists report relative quiet throughout the country though Syrian forces have not returned to barracks. UN-Arab League envoy Kofi Annan said in a statement this morning that he was encouraged that “the cessation of hostilities appears to be holding.” Arab League chief Nabil al-Arabi welcomed the development and urged Annan to send observers to Syria to monitor the ceasefire. Annan reportedly told the UN Security Council in a closed-door briefing today that the Syrian regime has failed to implement the full troop pullback. UNSC secretary general Ban Ki-Moon echoed Annan’s call for the Syrian regime to keep its promises and implement Annan’s six-point plan, saying: "As of this moment the situation looks calmer. We are following it very closely." The cease-fire comes after a tumultuous week in Syria with over one thousand deaths reported by the Syrian National Council, and violence spilling over into Turkey and Lebanon on Monday, with a Lebanese journalist killed inside his country by shots across the border from Syria. Meanwhile, Human Rights Watch issued a report on Monday that documented at least one hundred extrajudicial executions by the regime and called for a referral to the International Criminal Court. Iran. White House spokesperson Jay Carney, speaking prior to this weekend’s P5+1 nuclear talks, suggested that while time is not infinite, there is enough of it to pursue a diplomatic solution to Iran’s nuclear program. Fereydoon Abbasi-Davani, the head of Iran’s atomic nuclear organization, suggested on Monday that the Islamic republic might consider stopping enrichment of uranium at 20 percent. Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili, confirmed Wednesday that Iran would offer “new initiatives” to the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany when they meet Saturday in Istanbul. Meanwhile, the Pentagon announced the deployment of a second U.S. aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf, only the fourth time in the past decade that the United States has had two aircraft carriers operating at the same time in the region. The commander of the U.S. Fifth Fleet based in Bahrain called the deployment “routine and not specific to any threat.” Egypt. Omar Suleiman, Egypt’s former spy chief under deposed president Mubarak, announced his candidacy for president last Friday. His announcement, published on the website of state-run newspaper Al-Ahram, caught many Egyptians by surprise. Suleiman claimed he was running in response to Egypt’s desire for “security, stability and prosperity.” Suleiman, who served briefly as Mubarak’s vice president in the waning days of his rule, has been largely absent from public life following the toppling of the Egyptian government. Muslim Brotherhood secretary general Mahmoud Hussein, in comments published on the movement’s website on Wednesday, called the Suleiman candidacy “an attempt by the remnants of the regime to try to bring back the fallen era. It is seeking to thwart the revolution and return to the era before January 25." Noteworthy U.S. Foreign Policy Developments G8. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton hosted the Group of 8 foreign ministers on Wednesday and Thursday in Washington where they discussed a range of regional issues. Clinton reportedly discussed Syria again with Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov, following up on their March 12 meeting in which Lavrov said “ultimatums would not work.” On Monday, in the run-up to the ministerial meeting, Clinton told an audience at the U.S. Naval Academy that she expected a “very rough couple of days” while trying to determine whether a Syrian resolution should be brought back to the UN Security Council in the face of Russian resistance. She also blamed Russia’s refusal to support constructive action for keeping Assad in power. Following the G8 meetings, Clinton expressed cautious hope for today’s calm in Syria, noting, “The Annan plan is not a menu of options. It is a set of obligations. The burden of fully and visibly meeting all of these obligations continues to rest with the regime. They cannot pick and choose. For it to be meaningful, this apparent halt in violence must lead to a credible political process and a peaceful, inclusive, democratic transition.” Israel/Palestine. The Middle East Quartet--comprised of the European Union, Russia, the United Nations, and the United States--met on Wednesday and welcomed plans for upcoming dialogue between Israeli and Palestinian officials while discussing ways to support these efforts. UN secretary general Ban Ki-moon, Secretary of State Clinton, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, High Commissioner Catherine Ashton, and Quartet Representative Tony Blair were briefed by Jordan’s foreign minister, Nasser Judeh, about his country’s Israeli-Palestinian engagement. Meanwhile, Palestinian Authority president Abbas told an Israeli delegation on Sunday that he would continue his efforts to win recognition for Palestinian statehood at the UN if Prime Minister Netanyahu failed to respond to Palestinian positions to be laid out in a letter to be delivered by the Palestinians next Wednesday, April 17. According to Netanyahu’s aides yesterday, the Israeli leader seeks to upgrade peace talks to direct talks between himself and Abbas. PA spokesperson Nabil Abu Rdeneh said today that Abbas was ready for talks only if Israel halts settlement construction and accepts the 1967 green line as the basis for negotiations. Otherwise, he said, negotiations would be a “waste of time.” Quotes of the Week  “If the Brotherhood’s candidate wins the presidential election, Egypt will be turned into a religious state. All state institutions will be controlled by the Brotherhood." – Former Egyptian vice president Omar Suleiman said in an interview published on Thursday  “The Russians have continuously said they want to avoid civil war, they want to avoid a regional conflict, but their refusal to join with us in some sort of constructive action is keeping Assad in power, well armed, able to ignore the demands of his own people, of his region and the world.” – Secretary Of State Hillary Clinton said Tuesday evening at the U.S. Naval Academy in Annapolis "China calls on the Syrian government to respond to the six-point proposal." – Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Liu Weimin said on Wednesday of Kofi Annan’s six-point plan for resolving the Syrian crisis "[Western powers] want to impose sanctions on our oil and we must say to them that we have that much saved that even if we didn’t sell oil for two to three years, the country would manage easily." --Iranian president Ahmadinejad said during a visit to Hormuzgan province on Tuesday "And you know, our bottom line, our position is that Iran must -- lived up to its international obligations, including the full suspension of uranium enrichment, as required by multiple UN Security Council resolutions," – Whitehouse spokesman Jay Carney said in a press briefing on Wednesday While We Were Looking Elsewhere Tunisia. Some of the worst violence since last year’s revolution broke out in Tunisia on Monday. Hundreds of protesters gathering on a main avenue in Tunis in violation of a ban on demonstrations there, were met by tear gas and baton-armed riot police who injured fifteen civilians. President Moncef Marzouki denounced the violence as “unacceptable.” The Tunisian government announced today that it has reversed its ban on demonstrations. Gaza. Three men were hanged by Hamas in Gaza City on Saturday. Though the names and ages of the men were not released, Gaza authorities issued a statement claiming that one man had helped Israel and the other two were complicit in murder. The executions marked the first time Hamas has carried out an execution of someone accused of aiding Israel this year. Jordan. The Jordanian government announced on Wednesday that it would revoke Jordanian citizenship of Palestinian Authority and PLO officials, coinciding with a new electoral law in Jordan that will limit Palestinian representation in parliament. The government has defended the move saying it is “preserving the Palestinians’ national identity and paving the way for their return to Palestine.” It is not clear if Palestinian Authority president Abbas will lose his Jordanian citizenship. Yemen. More than 150 people have been killed since clashes broke out in Yemen on Monday, with at least eight fighters linked to al-Qaeda being killed today. The militant group Ansar al-Sharia attacked a military camp in the Lawdar area on Monday and since then the Yemeni government and armed civilians have launched a retaliatory offensive against the group. This Week in History This week marks the thirty-eighth anniversary of Golda Meir’s resignation as Israel’s prime minister. Meir announced her resignation on April 11, 1974, less than six months after the end of the surprise 1973 war that left Israel stunned and deeply wounded. Meir, a signatory of Israel’s declaration of independence in 1948, served in the Knesset from 1949 until 1974 while holding a variety of ministerial posts including foreign minister. When she replaced Levi Eshkol as prime minister following his death on February 26, 1969, Meir became the world’s third female prime minister at the time. The  combined Egyptian-Syrian attack in 1973 constituted a strategic surprise for Israel, and led to bitter accusations that Meir’s government left Israel unprepared. Though Meir’s Labor Alignment won post-war elections in December 1973, a national commission of inquiry into the war—the Agranat Commission—concluded that Israel was unprepared for the war. Though the commission absolved Meir of responsibility, she resigned days later and decided to withdraw from politics. Statistic of the Week The UN special representative to Iraq reported to the UN Security Council on Tuesday that more than 600 civilians had been killed in religion-related violence in Iraq from January 1 through March 31 of this year. "Terrorist attacks have continued to target pilgrims and resulted in the killing and wounding of scores of defenseless people practicing their religion," Martin Kobler said.

This article was originally published here on ForeignPolicy.com on Monday, April 3, 2012.  On March 21, Haaretz correspondent Ari Shavit wrote a powerful op-ed in the New York Times that began with this stark and stunning claim: "An Iranian atom bomb will force Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt to acquire their own atom bombs." Indeed, it has become axiomatic among Middle East watchers, nonproliferation experts, Israel’s national security establishment, and a wide array of U.S. government officials that Iranian proliferation will lead to a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. President Barack Obama himself, in a speech to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) last month, said that if Iran went nuclear, it was "almost certain that others in the region would feel compelled to get their own nuclear weapon." Multiple nuclear powers on a hair trigger in the Middle East -- the most volatile region on earth, and one that is undergoing massive political change -- is a nightmare scenario for U.S. and other security planners, who have never before confronted a challenge of such magnitude. But thankfully, all the dire warnings about uncontrolled proliferation are -- if not exactly science fiction -- further from reality than Shavit and Obama indicate. There are very good reasons for the international community to meet the challenge that Iran represents, but Middle Eastern nuclear dominoes are not one of them. Click here to read more.

Significant Middle East Developments Syria. A spokesman for UN special envoy Kofi Annan announced on Tuesday that Syrian president Bashar al-Assad accepted Annan’s six-point peace plan. Iran also announced its support for the plan. Western diplomats expressed doubts over Assad’s intention to implement it. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said “We will judge Assad’s sincerity and seriousness by what he does, not by what he says." Clinton said the Syrian leader could prove himself "by immediately ordering regime forces to stop firing and begin withdrawing from populated areas.” On Wednesday, despite Annan’s announcement, the violence in Syria continued unabated. Syrian government forces entered the town of Qalaat al-Madiq following seventeen straight days of bombardment. In Baghdad, Arab League foreign ministers agreed to back Annan’s proposal, but a Syrian official announced that the regime would reject any initiatives that came out of the Arab League summit. Meanwhile on Tuesday, Syrian opposition groups gathered in Istanbul in an attempt to unite. That effort was marred when both a veteran dissident and the Kurdish community’s representative walked out. Turkey closed its embassy in Damascus on Monday and is preparing to host the second Friends of Syria meeting on Sunday. Iraq. Three rockets exploded in Baghdad on Thursday as Arab leaders met for the first Arab League summit in Iraq in twenty-two years. The summit was dominated by the violence in Syria. The Arab leaders issued a declaration calling on the Syrian government and opposition to implement UN special envoy Kofi Annan’s six-point plan. Kuwait’s emir Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad al-Sabah attended the summit in a symbolic expression of his country’s reconciliation with Baghdad and the ending of claims outstanding against Iraq since Saddam Hussein occupied Kuwait in 1990. Qatar was represented by its ambassador to the Arab League. Qatari prime minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassem Al-Thani said that the lower level of representation was an intentional message to Baghdad protesting its treatment of Sunnis. Iran. Iranian foreign minister Ali Akbar Salehi announced on Tuesday that nuclear talks with the P5+1 countries would begin on April 13. Salehi expressed his hoped that they would take place in Istanbul. Turkish prime minister Erdogan in Tehran today voiced strong support for Tehran’s nuclear efforts. Erdogan has been in Iran on a two-day visit during which he said:  "The government and nation of Turkey has always clearly supported the nuclear positions of the Islamic republic of Iran, and will continue to firmly follow the same policy in the future." Noteworthy U.S. Foreign Policy Developments Syria. On Wednesday John McCain and five other lawmakers sponsored a non-binding Senate resolution calling for the establishment of safe zones inside Syria. It does not call for direct U.S. military intervention, something McCain supports, but aims at forging a consensus for U.S. support to the Syrian opposition. The resolution "supports calls by Arab leaders to provide the people of Syria with the means to defend themselves against Bashar al-Assad and his forces, including through the provision of weapons and other material support, and calls on the president to work closely with regional partners to implement these efforts effectively." Israel. Pentagon spokesman George Little announced on Tuesday that the U.S. Defense Department would ask Congress for more funding to support additional “Iron Dome” short-range missile shields for Israel. The system proved to be effective during the recent missile fire from Gaza, intercepting 80 percent of over three hundred missiles launched against Israel. Congress approved $205 million in funding for the Iron Dome project during fiscal year 2011, and the Obama administration is asking for further funds to support the project this year. Quotes of the Week "Assad has not taken the necessary steps despite his promises of democratic steps… The international community does not believe anymore that he will take those steps. We expect you to see that as well… It is time you saw that Syria will not be convinced. It is time you saw things will not go on with Assad," – Turkish prime minister Erdogan told Russian president Medvedev in a meeting on Tuesday "To think that Assad’s departure would mean the removal of all the problems is a very short-sighted position and everyone understands that if this happened the conflict would most likely continue,"- Russian president Dmitry Medvedev was quoted by the ITAR-TASS news agency on Tuesday "They’ve gone for the children... in large numbers, hundreds detained and tortured, it’s just horrendous." – UN human rights chief Navi Pillay on Wednesday regarding Syria’s security forces targeting of children "There is one thing to say: there is a partner. Abu Mazen never said he supports terror, not even when (former Palestinian president Yasser) Arafat was in charge. Don’t tell me there is no partner. There is a partner. Abu Mazen wants peace with Israel. It may not be the same peace we want, but that’s why we negotiate. And I don’t need Abu Mazen to make declarations on the nature of the State of Israel. When there will be a Palestinian state, there will be a Jewish democratic state of Israel, and that’s it." – Former Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert said on Monday before J Street in Washington While We Were Looking Elsewhere Egypt. Liberal and leftist members of parliament announced on Tuesday that they were withdrawing from the constituent assembly, the panel tasked to draft Egypt’s new constitution. This leaves the task solely in the hands of Islamist members. Liberal parties alleged that the hundred-member body that was selected this past weekend is unfairly dominated by Islamists. The dissenting parties want the constitution to be representative of all Egyptians and to be based on principles unrelated to election results. Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi met with party leaders on Tuesday to try to find a consensus about the assembly, but has yet to find a solution. Other institutions tasked to participate, such as Al Azhar’s Islamic Research Center, announced its intentions to follow suit on Thursday, declaring that it was also not fairly represented in the constituent assembly. The Coptic Church is reportedly considering pulling out as well. Further threatening the legitimacy of the constituent assembly is a set of lawsuits challenging its validity, about which the State Council’s Administrative Court announced it would rule on April 10. Libya. After days of bloody fighting in southern Libya, the Tabu tribe threatened on Wednesday to break away from Libya’s central government and form an autonomous state in the south. This is the second recent threat of secession, following eastern tribal leaders’ announcement earlier this month of their intention to form a semi-autonomous state with its capitol in Benghazi. The Tabu tribe is an African tribe that has been fighting with a rival Arab tribe and has accused the National Transition Council of allowing a genocide to occur without any indication of intervention. UAE. Dubai police chief Dahi Khalfan accused the Muslim Brotherhood on Tuesday of using twitter to undermine the political elite. Restrictions have been placed on Egyptians coming to the UAE for work since the Muslim Brotherhood came to power in the Egyptian parliament last year out of concern that they might stir unrest in the Gulf. Khalfan said “Western intelligence services leaked to me a piece of information that says that between 2012 and 2016 the (Muslim Brotherhood) aims at creating governments in the Gulf that pay allegiance to them.” This Week in History This week marks the tenth anniversary of the Arab League’s unanimous endorsement of the Arab Peace Initiative. During the Arab League summit in Beirut on March 27, 2002, the leaders of the Arab world agreed to a comprehensive peace initiative proposed by Crown Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia to end the Arab-Israeli conflict. The initiative offered full Arab recognition and normalization of relations to Israel by the Arab states in return for a full Israeli withdrawal from all territories occupied in the 1967 war, a "just solution" to the Palestinian refugee problem, and acceptance of the establishment of a sovereign Palestinian state. On the same day that the Arab League adopted the initiative, a Palestinian suicide bomber detonated explosives at a Passover seder in a Netanya hotel, killing twenty people and injuring 170 others. The initiative was adopted by the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia in April 2002, and was reaffirmed at the Arab League’s 2007 summit in Riyadh. Successive Israeli governments have failed to adopt the Arab Peace Initiative, citing concerns about the millions of Palestinian refugees who would seek to return to Israel, and alleging that the initiative prejudges the outcome of negotiations. Poll of the Week According to an opinion poll conducted by the Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies, 53.9 percent of Turks believe that they should have a nuclear arsenal if Iran develops a nuclear weapon. The support for a Turkish arsenal reveals the lack of confidence in NATO’s ability to protect Turkey from an Iranian nuclear threat, with only 8 percent of those polled convinced that NATO’s security umbrella would be sufficient deterrence. Thirty-two percent of those polled said that Turkey should not develop nuclear weapons in any situation.

Significant Middle East Developments Egypt. Pope Shenouda III, the head of the Coptic Orthodox Church in Egypt for over forty years, died last Saturday. Thousands of mourners attended his Cairo funeral on Tuesday. Shenouda’s death comes at a time of deepening insecurity among Egypt’s ten million Copts and fears of increasing sectarian strife following a deadly Coptic church bombing in January 2011 that killed twenty-three people, the massacre of twenty-seven mostly Coptic protesters last October, and heightened anti-Christian rhetoric employed by newly empowered Salafists. Shenouda was first selected as pope in 1971, and was seen as a guardian of Egypt’s Coptic community. In 1981, President Anwar Sadat sent Shenouda into internal exile at a desert monastery in response to the pope’s public efforts to highlight Coptic concerns. In the Mubarak era, Pope Shenouda quietly worked closely with the government to gain greater freedoms for the Coptic Church and to help preserve Egyptian stability, a collaboration that angered many of the younger and more secular Copts. The process to select Shenouda’s successor will likely take two to three months, and will run parallel to Egypt’s presidential election. The next pope will play a critical role in helping to shape Coptic-Muslim relations in post-revolutionary Egypt. Syria. The United Nations Security Council adopted a presidential statement Wednesday outlining its “full support” for UN-Arab League envoy Kofi Annan’s plan to bring the year-long violence in Syria to a halt. The statement called for both the opposition and the government "to work in good faith with the envoy towards a peaceful settlement of the Syrian crisis." The statement also called for a daily two-hour humanitarian pause and for a transition to a democratic, pluralist political system. State Department officials called the statement a “modest step” and Turkish foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu said today that "In addition to a common message we also have to develop a joint plan of action" to stop the “human tragedy” in Syria. Indeed, the statement has so far failed to quell any of the violence in Syria. At least fifty-four Syrians were killed today as the regime reportedly employed “Homs tactics” of shelling residential neighborhoods in Al Qaa on the Lebanese border. Syria’s main opposition group, the Syrian National Council, expressed disappointment with the UNSC’s statement. “Such statements, issued amid continued killings, offer the regime the opportunity to push ahead with its repression in order to crush the revolt by the Syrian people,” said Samir Nashar, member of the executive committee of the Syrian National Council. UN secretary general Ban Ki-Moon said that he hoped the UN statement would prove to be a “turning point” in the crisis. Noteworthy U.S. Foreign Policy Developments Iran sanctions. The United States granted exemptions to Japan and ten EU countries (Belgium, Britain, the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, and Spain) from financial sanctions because they have significantly reduced their purchases of Iranian oil. President Obama invoked a clause in the 2012 National Defense Authorization Act that allows him to grant exemptions if a given country has “significantly reduced” petroleum purchases. Turkey has also sought an exemption, but was not included on the list released by the administration on Tuesday. Turkish prime minister Erdogan is likely to raise the issue with President Obama when they both attend a nuclear security summit in South Korea later this month. Palestine. President Obama called Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas on Monday—the first time the two leaders had spoken in six months. White House spokesman Jay Carney said in a statement that Obama told Abbas that the United States remained committed to Middle East peace. According to Carney, Obama also praised recent efforts by Jordan’s king Abdullah to return Israelis and Palestinians to the negotiating table. Middle Eastern news sources report that Obama urged Abbas to withdraw or at least soften a letter the Palestinian president plans to send Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. A Palestinian official subsequently said that Abbas was still determined to send the letter, though he did not specify any timing. Quotes of the Week “We believe the Syrian leadership reacted wrongly to the first appearance of peaceful protests and... is making very many mistakes.” – Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov told Russian radio station Kommersant-FM on Monday "It is time for these criminals to stop exploiting the name of Palestine through their terrorist actions, and to stop pretending to stand up for Palestinian children, who only seek a decent life for themselves and for all children of the world.” – Palestinian prime minister Salam Fayyad said on Wednesday, in response to the killing of three children and a rabbi at Toulouse "We have information that Iran paid tens of millions of dollars to Zahar and Haniyeh in their visits to Iran… Reconciliation is in the freezer because Zahar was the one who put it there and he got the price from Iran… Zahar, Haniyeh and Hamas’s Gaza leadership were paid by Iran to freeze reconciliation.” – Ahmed Assaf, a Fatah spokesman, told Reuters on Tuesday "I wish the Iranian people a real, true holiday, in which they may taste freedom, dignity and human honor… It is not too late to replace the corrupt regime and return to your glorious Persian heritage, a heritage of culture and values, not of bombs and missiles.” – Israeli president Shimon Peres sent greetings to the Iranian people for Nowruz, the Persian new year, on Monday While We Were Looking Elsewhere Yemen. Yemen’s Ministry of Human Rights announced on Sunday that more than two thousand people have been killed in the country’s unrest over the past year. It marked the first casualty figures released by the government, and far exceeds human rights groups’ estimates. Amnesty International had previously estimated that two hundred people had been killed in Yemen’s uprising. The government’s casualty count includes protesters and military defectors. Also on Sunday, al-Qaeda killed Joel Shrum, an American development worker and teacher living in Taiz. Two gunmen riding on a motorbike shot Shrum dead. He was the deputy director of the International Training Development Centre (ITDC). Iraq. At least forty-nine people were killed throughout Iraq on Tuesday, a week before the much anticipated Arab League summit in Baghdad aimed at demonstrating Iraq’s move toward stability and complete sovereignty. Thousands of soldiers and police have since flooded the streets of Baghdad to secure the city, though terrorist activity is still expected to pick up in the run-up to the summit. Meanwhile, Kurdish regional government president Massoud Barzani threatened on Tuesday to withdraw Kurdish support from Prime Minister Maliki’s ruling coalition, marking a blow to Prime Minister Maliki’s coalition. "It is time to say that enough is enough, because Iraq is headed toward an abyss, and a small group of people are about to pull Iraq into a dictatorship,” Barzani said in a speech. Barzani accused the Baghdad government of pressuring western oil companies from working in Kurdish areas of Iraq. Bahrain. The country’s main opposition groups issued a joint statement on Monday announcing their willingness to begin talks with Bahrain’s rulers on ending the country’s protests. However, the statement stipulated several preconditions, including a demand that all political prisoners be released before any talks could commence. King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa, in an apparent rebuff to the opposition, said the following day that Bahrain had enacted real and meaningful reforms and that “the challenge of the coming months will be to translate these into tangible, cultural changes.” This Week in History This week marks the seventeenth anniversary of Operation Steel, the Turkish army’s invasion of northern Iraq in an attempt to disassemble the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) infrastructure. On March 20, 1995, Turkey sent some thirty-five thousand troops into the mountains of Iraq. Over five hundred PKK militants were killed; Turkish forces suffering only sixty-four fatalities. The invasion failed to achieve its objectives, however, as PKK forces had observed the Turkish troop build-up and managed to disperse in time. By the end of April, after a month of operations, Turkey pulled out twenty thousand of its troops. Operation Steel officially ended on May 4 after a Kurdistan delegation pledged to halt PKK activities in Iraqi Kurdistan. The PKK continued its operations, however, and Turkey deployed another thirty thousand soldiers into Iraq in 1997 in Operation Hammer. Poll of the Week According to a March opinion poll conducted in the West Bank and Gaza by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR), the Palestinian Authority and Hamas have both recently lost popularity among the public. Hamas’ overall approval ratings fell five percentage points in the last three months, dropping to 36 percent, while the Palestinian Authority’s popularity declined even more drastically, dropping ten percentage points to 34 percent. Fifty-five percent of those polled claimed satisfaction with President Abbas’s performance--a five point drop from his standing three months ago. Forty three percent of those polls expressed dissatisfaction with Palestinian leader’s performance.

Significant Middle East Developments Syria. As Syrians marked the one-year anniversary of the outbreak of protests in their country, Bashar al-Assad’s forces appeared to be gaining momentum. Over the course of the week, regime forces went on the offensive into Idlib and Dara’a. On Thursday, nearly one thousand Syrian refugees poured into Turkey. Ankara has announced plans to build a new refugee camp to house up to twenty thousand people. In addition to the estimated eight thousand Syrians who have died since the unrest began, around 1.4 million more are at risk of going hungry according to the UN World Food Program. On the diplomatic front, UN/Arab League envoy Kofi Annan presented a proposal to Bashar al-Assad last weekend to halt the unrest, to which Assad reportedly asked for clarifications and raised conditions for his accession to any arrangement that includes an opposition ceasefire and an explicit halt to outside arming and funding of the Syrian rebels. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the Netherlands, and Italy all closed their embassies in Damascus this week joining the United States, Britain, France, and Spain in withdrawing their diplomatic staff. At the same time, Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov received a testy reception when he visited Arab League headquarters last Saturday in Cairo. He nonetheless succeeded in convincing the Arab League to agree to five principles for a Syrian settlement: an end to all violence, an impartial monitoring mechanism, no outside interference, unimpeded humanitarian access into Syria, and support for Kofi Annan’s diplomatic efforts. In agreeing to these principles, the Arab League has dropped its collective insistence that Bashar al-Assad step down as part of a settlement. He also discussed Syria in his meeting with Secretary of State Clinton (see Noteworthy U.S. Foreign Policy developments below). Israel. Gaza militants and the Israeli air force continued to exchange fire today, despite an Egyptian-mediated truce announced on Tuesday. Israel struck two militant sites in response to rocket fire on southern Israel, and militants retaliated by firing two rockets into Israel. Violence erupted last Friday after Israel killed two senior militants from the Popular Resistance Committees. Israel claimed the militants were en route to conduct a terrorist attack. Over the ensuing four days, Islamic Jihad launched at least two hundred rockets into southern Israel, wounding three. Israel forces conducted thirty air strikes, killing twenty-three Palestinians. Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system successfully shot down 77 percent of the incoming rockets it perceived as a threat. An Israeli official suggested the Iron Dome’s performance over the last week could be seen as a “mini-drill” for how Israel’s Arrow II defense system might handle an Iranian attack. Noteworthy U.S. Foreign Policy Developments UNSC. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton met with Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov on Monday on the margins of the Security Council debate over the Arab Spring. It was the second time the two foreign ministers have met since February 3, when Clinton failed to dissuade Russia from vetoing a second draft resolution condemning Syrian president Assad. On Monday, Lavrov criticized what he termed the “risky recipes of geopolitical engineering” proposed by the UN as solutions for Syria. He spoke disapprovingly of those “making hasty demands for regime change, imposing unilateral sanctions designed to trigger economic difficulties and social tensions in the country.” Speaking to reporters after the meeting, Clinton pushed back, saying: “The alternative to our unity on these points will be bloody internal conflict with dangerous consequences for the whole region.” Lavrov then countered by saying that “ultimatums would not work.” He added that, “it is not honest when people say everything depends on Russia. I would also like to hope that the U.S. can resolve the Middle East crisis. Today’s problems of the world cannot be resolved by the desire or efforts by one country alone.” Egypt. U.S. congressional minority leader Nancy Pelosi met with Egyptian military leader Field Marshal Tantawi in Cairo today. Pelosi also met with the Islamist speaker of the parliament, Saad al-Katatni. Her visit follows the recent U.S.-Egyptian contretemps over Cairo’s charging of sixteen U.S. NGO officials with illegal activity and subsequent refusal to let them return to the United States. The travel ban was finally lifted on March 1. Today, Pelosi announced that despite these developments, relations between the two countries would remain strong: “The NGOs was a bump in the road. We don’t intend to have it stand in the way.”  The trials of the NGO officials are still slated to proceed. Quotes of the Week "Russia enjoys good and strong military technical cooperation with Syria, and we see no reason today to reconsider it.” – Russian deputy defense minister Anatoly Antonov said on Tuesday "This is the beginning of a process and the joint special envoy feels the process is on the right track." – UN envoy Kofi Annan’s spokesman Ahmad Fawzi said on Monday regarding Annan’s mediation mission to Syria "We believe that the demand for democracy by the Arab people must be respected and truly responded to, and I believe this trend toward democracy cannot be held back by any force." -- Chinese premier Wen Jiabao told reporters on Wednesday “With our international partners, we’ll continue to tighten the noose around Bashar al-Assad and his cohorts, and we’ll work with the opposition and the United Nations-Arab League envoy Kofi Annan to plan for the transition that will follow Assad’s departure from power.” – U.S. president Barack Obama and UK prime minister David Cameron wrote in a joint op-ed in the Washington Post on Monday While We Were Looking Elsewhere Yemen. Former Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh appears determined to prove that the country cannot function without him by setting up a parallel government designed to undermine newly elected president Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi. On Saturday, Saleh declared that “Our people will remain present in every institution… Two months have passed since this creation of this weak government, which doesn’t know the ABCs of politics. It won’t be able to build a thing or put one brick on top of another." This week tribal fighters attempted to storm the Finance Ministry because they were no longer receiving the funds that Saleh used to funnel to them. Traffic police barricaded their headquarters to prevent the new chief of traffic police appointed by Hadi from entering his office. The fracturing of authority within an already extremely divided country has been devastating for Yemen’s economy.  The World Food Program announced on Wednesday that nearly one quarter of Yemen’s population of twenty two million are in need of emergency food assistance. Egypt. The Egyptian parliament voted unanimously to expel the Israeli ambassador on Monday. The vote was symbolic, as only the SCAF holds the power to make such decisions. It nonetheless reflects strong anti-Israeli sentiments within the post-Mubarak parliament. The deliberative body also voted to cut gas exports to Israel in another symbolic vote. It then issued a statement claiming, “Revolutionary Egypt will never be a friend, partner or ally of the Zionist entity (Israel), which we consider to be the number one enemy of Egypt and the Arab nation.” Libya. Libya’s government announced on Wednesday that it would take control of the airports, border crossing points, and seaports that have until now remained under militia control. Despite the central government’s struggles to consolidate power, Libya’s stock market re-opened on Thursday for the first time since the fall of Muammar Qaddafi’s regime. Ahmed Karoud, general manager of the stock market, said that “We still don’t have a government but we have the capacity and infrastructure necessary to become the financial hub of North Africa.” Saudi Arabia. Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi assured participants at the thirteenth International Energy Forum in Kuwait on Wednesday that the Kingdom is ready to pump more oil to cover any potential shortfalls that might occur as a result of new sanctions on Iran. Speaking to the same forum, Iran’s oil minister Rostam Qasemi warned that “exerting unilateral economic constraints” jeopardizes “continuity of oil supply in the world.” The comments came as the International Energy Agency announced on Wednesday that oil exports from Iran are expected to fall by eight hundred thousand barrels per day by mid-year. This Week in History This week marks the thirty-fourth anniversary of the Israelis’ launch of Operation Litani in southern Lebanon. At the time, Palestinian groups led by the PLO had established bases in southern Lebanon from which they launched raids on Israeli civilian targets. On March 14, 1978, Israeli troops crossed into Lebanon and began a push up to the Litani River. Some 250,000 inhabitants of Southern Lebanon fled their homes while the PLO retreated north of the Litani River. Twenty Israeli and well over a thousand Palestinian fighters were killed in the ensuing fighting. The Israeli incursion followed a March 11 Palestinian attack in which terrorists infiltrated Israel by sea and killed thirty-five Israelis traveling by bus along the coastal road. The international community condemned the operation for the damage and loss of life inflicted on southern Lebanon. Soon after, the UN Security Council passed resolutions 425 and 426, which called for the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon. To enforce the resolutions, the UN created the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) which arrived in Lebanon on March 23. While Israel withdrew soon after (only to return four years later in greater force), UNIFIL remained and still maintains a presence in southern Lebanon to this day. Poll of the Week According to a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll, a majority (56 percent) of Americans would support military action against Iran given evidence of a nuclear weapons program, while 39 percent would oppose it. Fifty-three percent said they would still support U.S. military action even if it led to higher gasoline prices, and 62 percent said they would support an Israeli strike against Iran.

I rarely write about Israel.  It’s important politically, but intellectually for me a bit of a bore. What more can be said about the country that has not already been said, especially the Arab-Israeli conflict of which the Palestinian problem is the core? You could pile the books, papers, and articles from floor to ceiling on the topic. Israel-Iran?  It’s covered. The ethnic and sectarian differences in the Holy Land? It’s been done.  Israel’s changing demographics?  Lots of smart folks have weighed in. The durability of the Egypt-Israel peace treaty after the Egyptian uprising?  I am sort of/halfway intrigued, but only because I once drank the water from the Nile and now I can’t quit Egypt.  Every now and again though, something comes across my desk on Israel that interests me.  In the last week or so, colleagues have suggested I read two short opinion pieces--one by Avi Shlaim Emeritus Professor of International Relations at Oxford University, and one by the New Yorker’s David Remnick. Both pieces were a revelation—who writes better than Remnick?—but not necessarily because they offered any new or interesting insights about Israeli politics or society, but rather because of the fascinating way Shlaim and Remnick treat their subject. How analysts talk and write about Israel has always been a challenge.  There is, of course, the perennial problem of perception when it comes to a highly politically charged and emotionally freighted issue like Israel.  That’s why to some The New York Times’ former Jerusalem bureau chief, Ethan Bronner, is either an unrepentant sympathizer of Israel’s right wing or an unrepentant fellow traveler of the Palestinian cause.   Yet the kind of guff Bronner took and those that follow him will take is not exactly what I am getting at.  Too often Israel is rendered in caricature, where only ideology, lust for land, and hatred for Palestinians reign. In this world, politics, agency, and nuance simply do not exist. Remnick could be given a pass because his lamentation titled “Threatened” is beautifully written and he is, after all, an essayist whose forte is a kind of literary impressionism.  Not so of Shlaim who, as a scholar at one of the world’s most outstanding universities, should know better, but nevertheless lets loose with an angry missive identifying Israel’s prime minister as, “a bellicose right-wing Israeli nationalist,” “a reactionary who is deeply wedded to the status quo,” and “a jimcrack [or gimcrack, meaning cheap] politician.” Let me state (once again), lest anyone misinterpret what I am saying, that Israel’s settlement project is a tragic mistake that has denied Palestinians justice, killed thousands of Israelis and Palestinians combined, and for all practical purposes has closed off the possibility of a two-state solution, jeopardizing not only Israeli security and democracy but the country’s existence.  I hold no particular brief for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu or his Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman.  I believe ideas matter. And, it’s perfectly legitimate for professors to have views about the world and express them, even angrily. Yet Shlaim and Remnick obscure more about Israel and its politics than they reveal.  Yes, we know that Netanyahu and his government are right-wingers and we know that many settlers are racists and harbor little commitment to democracy.  It would have been more interesting and I might have learned something new if either author had unearthed the crosscutting political pressures that Netanyahu confronts in maintaining his coalition. Netanyahu is a politician and as a result, like all politicians everywhere, he wants to stay in power.  Knowing as the prime minister surely does that Israel’s right has toppled successive governments since the 1990s including Netanyahu’s own between 1996 and 1999, he is unlikely to pursue policies that will jeopardize his coalition.  Netanyahu is no statesman, but statesmen are rare in history.  A distillation of Israel’s electoral laws, which has done more than anything to create the unhappy situation in the Holy Land, would have been far more helpful to understanding how it came to be that “the settlers, the Ultra-Orthodox Shas, and the National Religious Party” are the backbone of the current Israeli government, rather than the wild-eyed ideologues that Remnick and Shlaim portray.  A nod to the fact that the settlement ethos is central to Zionism—of all varieties and shades—would have given some sense of the historical context in which Israeli democracy finds itself under threat.  There are, of course, a variety of additional interesting avenues to explore. I am sure Remnick and Shlaim would say that examining these issues was not their goal, which is their right, but it is also too bad.  As powerfully as they have written, they haven’t told even the casual or left-of-center observer of Israel anything they don’t already know or fervently believe.  As a (detached) observer, it’s curious to me that even ostensibly sophisticated observers of Israel have come to essentialize—to reduce them to some alleged ascriptive or primordial characteristic—Israeli leaders.  And as a result, observers like Remnick and Shlaim, who are only two recent and prominent examples among many others, have done precisely what they so revile about their subjects whom they accuse of having a one-dimensional view of the Palestinians as hopelessly retrograde and violent.  I am not sure, but it strikes me that when it comes to Israel, Palestine, and peace, we need less polemics.

Significant Middle East Developments Israel. President Obama held three hours of talks with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House Monday. The two focused almost entirely on the challenge posed by Iran’s nuclear development efforts. President Obama also met with visiting Israeli president Shimon Peres on the margins of the annual AIPAC convention. All three officials addressed some fourteen thousand AIPAC attendees. Both Obama and Netanyahu focused their public remarks on Iran; the prime minister stressed the danger posed by Iran’s efforts to aquire nuclear weapons, and President Obama emphasized the U.S. commitment to Israel’s security. The visit generated intense media interest and considerable speculation on whether or not Netanyahu and Obama reached agreement on a way forward or on a timeline for action vis-à-vis Iran. Israeli media speculation after the visit diverged widely, with some seasoned commentators arguing that Netanyahu received sufficient U.S. assurances to forestall a unilateral Israeli strike against Iranian nuclear facilities. Other Israeli analysts argued that Netanyahu’s AIPAC remarks, likening the Iranian threat to that posed to the Jewish people by Auschwitz, solidified Israel’s path towards military action. Iran. The United States and the other five global powers dealing with Iran’s nuclear program (Britain, France, Germany, Russia, and China) agreed on Tuesday to resume face-to-face negotiations with Iran. The place and time for the P5+1 talks are still to be determined. The six powers issued a joint statement at the IAEA board meeting today calling on Iran to enter negotiations with no pre-conditions and to open the Parchin military base to inspectors. Iran’s ambassador to France Ali Ahani said that discussion could not address reducing or eliminating Iran’s uranium enrichment activities. On Wednesday, French foreign minister Alain Juppe said that “I think Iran continues to be two-faced… That’s why I think we have to continue to be extremely firm on sanctions, which in my view are the best way to prevent a military option that would have unforeseeable consequences." Noteworthy U.S. Foreign Policy Developments Defense Secretary Leon Panetta testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee on Wednesday, advising against immediate U.S. military involvement in Syria saying “What doesn’t make sense is to take unilateral action right now.” Panetta went on to say "I’ve got to make very sure we know what the mission is ... achieving that mission at what price” though he did “not rule out any future course of action.” Army General Martin Dempsey underscored Panetta’s cautioning of military intervention earlier in the week, saying that a long-term air campaign would be a greater challenge in Syria than had been the case in Libya. Syrian air defenses are five times more sophisticated than Libya’s, Dempsey said. He also identified Syria’s chemical and biological weapons stockpile as one hundred times larger than Libya’s. The ranking Republican member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, Senator John McCain, responded to Panetta’s testimony by suggesting that Syria’s 7,500 dead called for stronger U.S. leadership along the lines of former president Bill Clinton’s involvement in the Bosnian war in the 1990s saying: “In past situations, America has led. We’re not leading, Mr. Secretary.” Meanwhile, Kofi Annan, the recently appointed Arab League and UN special envoy for Syria, echoed Panetta’s sentiments today, also warning against military intervention. Talking to reporters at the Arab League in Cairo on the first leg of his inaugural trip as special envoy, Annan said that he hoped “no one is thinking seriously of using force in the situation” and went on to say that the solution to the crisis “lies in a political settlement” and must be “Syrian-led and Syrian-owned.” He also hinted that military intervention had worsened other regional conflicts, though he failed to identify these by name. Annan is scheduled to arrive in Damascus to begin negotiations with Syrian president Bashar al-Assad this weekend. Earlier this week, I argued on CNN.org that Annan should travel to Moscow and seek to engage the Russians in forging an end to the bloodshed in Syria. Quotes of the Week "Humanitarian aid corridors must immediately be opened." – Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said about Syria during a parliamentary meeting of his AKP party on Tuesday “We are convinced that it is impossible to defeat the Syrian regime and are therefore not thinking about a subsequent period or an alternative regime.” – Iranian ambassador to Lebanon Ghadanfar Roken Abadi said on Thursday “There is a murderer called Bashar al-Assad’s regime, who commits daily, red-handed, dozens of killings, documented in video and audio all over Syria… What kind of religion, ethics and constitution allows all these crimes? Where is the interest of Lebanon in betting on a regime drowning in the death fields that it created?” – Former Lebanese prime minister Saad Hariri addressed the Lebanese people on Wednesday via live video link “We do want to be partners with them [Egyptian people] over the long term. Now we have had to spend a lot of time, for example, talking to people on Capitol Hill to remind people of the long-term interest that we have in Egypt and the long-term benefits that we think that both countries have.” – Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern affairs Jeffrey Feltman said in an exclusive interview with Al Arabiya on Monday in response to a question about the potential effects of the NGO-related crisis on U.S.-Egyptian relations While We Were Looking Elsewhere Libya. Tribal and militia leaders gathered for a conference in Benghazi on Tuesday and announced their intention to seek a semi-autonomous state in eastern Libya. The participants declared that they sought administrative independence from Tripoli, but that the semi-autonomous state would still recognize the central government’s right to represent Libya internationally. Mustafa Jalil, chairman of the National Transition Council, blamed other unnamed Arab states for  “supporting and financing this sedition that is happening in the east” to ensure that “the revolution does not spread to their countries.” Jalil went on to warn in a Tuesday evening press conference that remants of Qaddafi’s regime were trying to exploit the tribal and militia leaders in Benghazi and that the NTC is “ready to deter them, even with force.” Gaza. Hamas will not be drawn into a conflict between Israel and Iran, a senior political counselor to the Hamas foreign ministry said on Wednesday. Ahmed Yussef said that Iran had great military capabilities of its own and didn’t need Hamas’ assistance. He also stated that the group “does not belong to any military or regional political axis, and [its] activity is in Palestine.” Yussef’s statements came on the heels of a report by the Guardian on Tuesday that quoted two Hamas officials as saying that the group would not involve itself in a conflict between Israel and Iran and the immediate refutation by top Hamas official Mahmoud Zahar in the semi-official Iranian news agency Fars. Zahar was quoted as saying, “Retaliation with utmost power is the position of Hamas with regard to a Zionist war on Iran.” UAE. Police arrested an activist after he posted comments on Twitter condemning the government’s decision to deport Syrian expatriates. On Tuesday, Saleh al-Dhufairi was taken from his home by the police on the accusation of “spreading ideas by speech, writing and any other means that provoke strife, hurt national unity and social peace.” Human Rights Watch had called on the Emirati authorities last Friday to retract the decision to deport a group of Syrians who had protested Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Dubai. Tunisia. Tunisian president Moncef Marzouki has reportedly accepted that Saudi Arabia will most likely never extradite former Tunisian leader Zine el Abidine Ben Ali. In an interview on Thursday, Marzouki said that “We will probably keep putting the pressure on them to have this man here in Tunisia, but as I told you, I don’t believe that they will accept because they have their own tradition, they have their own laws… And we do not want to have problems with them about this problem because we have also social and economic ties with Saudi Arabia and we want to keep them.” This Week in History This week marks the twenty-first year since the outbreak of the Kurdish rebellion against Saddam Hussein on March 4, 1991. The rebellion came on the heels of Kuwait’s liberation by a U.S.-led coalition and a few years after the Anfal campaign--Saddam’s systemic attempt at destruction of the Kurdish population of Iraq in 1988. On February 15, 1991, President Bush told Voice of America: "There is another way for the bloodshed to stop: and that is, for the Iraqi military and the Iraqi people to take matters into their own hands and force Saddam Hussein, the dictator to step aside and then comply with the United Nations’ resolutions and rejoin the family of peace-loving nations." A Shia uprising broke out on March 1 in Basra, but was rapidly suppressed by Iraqi troops. In the north, the Kurdish rebellion began in the town of Rania and quickly spread. Within ten days, the Kurds had gained control of every city in the north with the exception of Mosul and Kirkuk, which they captured on March 20. The rebellion was short-lived as the Iraqi army turned northwards and quickly and brutally retook Kirkuk at the end of March while coalition troops still on Iraqi soil took no action. On April 5, the Iraqi Revolutionary Command Council announced the complete crushing of the uprising. Poll of the Week According to an opinion poll conducted by the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party’s newspaper, 30 percent of Egyptians want the next president to have an Islamic background. Four percent of the five hundred people surveyed said that while they have not yet decided on their favorite candidate, they would not support an Islamist president.