Israel

By Israel’s accounting, Operation Pillar of Defense has achieved many if not most of its major objectives: assassinating Hamas’ long-sought after military mastermind Ahmed Jaabari and other top officials, destroying much of Hamas’ long-range arsenal of imported Iranian-produced Fajr-5 missiles, and eliminating other significant high-value military targets. Despite this, however, a number of unintended consequences have already emerged, ranging from boosting Hamas’ prominence, undermining its isolation, further weakening the Palestinian Authority’s Mahmoud Abbas, and diverting regional attention from Syria. Fundamentally, the operation -- an outgrowth of a rapid escalation of the past year’s episodic firing of rockets from Gaza into southern Israel and IDF strikes against limited targets -- appears to have an been the unintended consequence of Hamas’ miscalculation: The organization apparently determined it could build up long-range rockets in Gaza and allow its truce with Israel to erode without incurring a significant price. Over the past year, Hamas, the de facto ruler in Gaza, allowed even more militant groups to launch mortars and rockets into southern Israel seemingly thinking that Israel’s response would be limited. The fact that its military leader, Jaabari, felt confident enough to let strict operational security lapse and leave himself vulnerable to an Israeli strike while riding in an unprotected vehicle reflects that. But rather than marginalize Hamas, Israel’s operation so far has only enhanced the centrality of that organization. That by-product is entirely consistent with Israel’s aim -- to compel Hamas to take responsibility for developments in Gaza. As in the 2009 Cast Lead operation, Israel’s goal now is not to destroy Hamas, but to compel it to behave more responsibly and keep order in Gaza. Much of the mortar fire over the past year against southern Israel has been launched by groups more radical than Hamas. By holding Hamas responsible, Israel inadvertently bolsters Hamas’ standing and legitimacy as the ultimate power-broker and arbiter in Gaza. Yet this objective of forcing Hamas’ responsibility has unintentionally contributed to undermining Israel’s longstanding objective of keeping Hamas isolated internationally, if not regionally. With the United States, Israel, and other countries urging Egypt to rein in the Gaza leaders, Hamas’ centrality as the locus of decision-making grows rather than diminishes. This then encourages other Middle East leaders to accelerate their rush to Gaza, while skipping Ramallah, to court Hamas’ leadership. This Qatari, Turkish, Tunisian, and Egyptian courting of Hamas has the unintended consequence of further eroding the stature of the Palestinian Authority under Mahmoud Abbas, a Palestinian leader avowedly committed to the non-violent path. By bypassing Ramallah and President Abbas, they further marginalize the moderate leaders as the proper address for resolving problems. This still leaves the Ramallah based Palestinian Authority shouldering much of the burden for the situation in Gaza by being the largest source of sustenance for the Strip’s wage-earners. It also has the unintended consequence of boosting the diplomatic standing of Islamist supporters: Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey. The fact that Israel has acted with considerable restraint compared to its conduct of Operation Cast Lead has created conditions boosting Hamas’ domestic popularity, at least for now. Gazans have sustained the majority of the casualties and damage so far, and don’t expect to beat the Israelis militarily. Just causing the Israelis pain -- piercing the "Tel Aviv bubble" and lashing out against Israeli Jerusalem -- is seen as a tactical achievement, so long as it does not incur demonstrable defeat or the populace overwhelming loss. That perception is why, in addition to taking out Hamas’ increased military capabilities in Gaza, Israel feels the need to strike a decisive psychological blow -- an aim that may well prove elusive. The current conflict will also have the further unintended effect of reinforcing President Abbas’ determination to seek non-member state status at the end of the month. In Palestinian eyes right now, it is Hamas that is seen to be taking action, not Abbas. Abbas thus no doubt feels all the more compelled to carry out his threat to resume his U.N. gambit, despite strong American, Israeli and other international opposition. A final unintended consequence of the conflict has been to eclipse the regional and international focus on Syria, where hundreds of people have been slaughtered on a daily basis for the past year and a half. Assad will likely exploit this by ratcheting up his brutality against Syrian rebels and civilians while eyes are gazed elsewhere. While the course of Operation Pillar of Defense is still to be played out, we can be sure that it will be filled with surprises.

“This is a real declaration of war. The enemy will pay a heavy price for its crime and will regret the moment it thought of perpetrating it.” – Fawzi Barhoum, a spokesman for Hamas, in response to the Israeli strike that killed Ahmed al-Jaabari, head of the military wing of the organization “The days we face in the south will, in my estimation, prove protracted…The homefront must brace itself resiliently…There are preparations, and if we are required to, the option of an entry by ground is available.” – Israeli brigadier-general Yoav Mordechai after Israeli air strikes killed Hamas’ Jaabari "I announce that France recognizes the Syrian National Coalition as the sole representative of the Syrian people and thus as the future provisional government of a democratic Syria and to bring an end to Bashar al-Assad’s regime.” – French president Francois Hollande “Is the regime waiting for an explosion in Jordan so his end will be like the Egyptian end or the Tunisian end? We are insisting on creating the Jordanian spring with a Jordanian flavor, which means reforming our regime and keeping our Hirak [protest movement] peaceful.” – Zaki Bani Irsheid, vice chairman of Jordan’s Muslim Brotherhood, in an interview before the latest demonstrations erupted this week over cuts to energy subsidies “The Doha meeting was a declaration of war. These people (the opposition) don’t want to solve the issue peacefully through the mechanisms of the UN.” – Syrian deputy foreign minister Faisal Muqdad “Teach me. Invest in me. Let me work. I don’t get it…My friends are all in the same situation. What’s wrong here?” – Manar Saud, a Saudi woman, on the high unemployment rate among women in Saudi Arabia “The plane appeared in seconds, dropped a bomb and killed children…Here is total chaos.” – Nezir Alan, a doctor in Ras al-Ain after a bombing  that wounded at least seventy people in Syria “I’m in favor of targeted killings…It is a policy that led Hamas to understand, during the suicide bombings, that they would pay the price should (the bombings) continue.” – Israeli opposition lawmaker Shaul Mofaz “The ball is in Israel’s court…The resistance factions will observe Israel’s actions on the ground and will act accordingly.” – Khalid al-Batsh, a leader of Palestinian Islamic Jihad

This article was originally published here on CSMonitor.com on Thursday, November 15, 2012 Even before the recent round of Hamas rockets and airstrikes from Israel in the Gaza Strip, the Palestinian enclave was in the news as the diplomatic destination of choice for the leaders of the Middle East. Last month, the emir of Qatar visited Gaza. Bahrain’s embattled king is also weighing such a trip. Turkey’s prime minister, too, announced his intention to travel to the strip. News reports speculate that the leaders’ attention will further legitimize Gaza’s militant Hamas at the expense of Mahmoud Abbas’s secular Palestinian Authority, which is based in the West Bank. Yet the sudden diplomatic interest in Gaza has more to do with prime ministers, kings, emirs, and presidents seeking to burnish their legitimacy – or importantly, their credentials as potential regional leaders. The uprisings, revolutions, and civil wars that have dramatically altered domestic politics in the Arab world have had a profound effect on regional power dynamics – including Iran. The Middle East is up for grabs, yet which country or countries will lead is as unclear and complex as current efforts to build new political systems in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, and elsewhere. The issue of leadership is critical for the region. States with prestige and financial, diplomatic, and military resources can drive events in the Middle East – hopefully for good, but potentially for bad. In the 1950s and ’60s, for example, Egypt’s leadership under Gamal Abdel Nasser shaped regional politics around the myths of Arab nationalism, which led to intra-Arab conflict and regional war. The Arab Spring provides an opportunity for a power or group of powers to usher in a new era of peace, prosperity, and perhaps democracy. Continue reading here...

“In the United States, you have a new elected president every four years. But here we are living with a king and the same prime minster for forty-two years.” – Yousif al-Muhafdah, a Bahraini human rights activist on Friday “The behavior of the Syrian popular forces  is very similar to that of the Iranian Basij, therefore it is assumed that Iranian forces are present...If we are talking about the transfer and sharing of experience [between Iran and Syria] then it is only natural that such a thing should exist, but we are focusing on the fact that there are no Iranian forces present in Syria.” – Muhammad Reza Naghdi, commander of Iran’s Basij volunteer paramilitary force, said Wednesday according to the Iranian Students’ News Agency “I guess they saw us as bad guys then, and they see us as the bad guys now…Our reasoning doesn’t sell movie tickets, I assume.” – Abbas Abdi, one of the 1979 Iranian hostage-takers, after watching a bootleg copy of Argo “Five minutes after, contrary to what the skeptics say, I think a feeling of relief would spread across the region…Iran is not popular in the Arab world, far from it, and some governments in the region, as well as their citizens, have understood that a nuclear armed Iran would be dangerous for them, not just for Israel.” – Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in an interview published last Tuesday with French magazine Paris Match "This cannot be an opposition represented by people who have many good attributes but who, in many instances, have not been inside Syria for twenty, thirty, forty years…There has to be a representation of those who are in the front lines fighting and dying today to obtain their freedom…We’ve made it clear that the SNC can no longer be viewed as the visible leader of the opposition…but that opposition must include people from inside Syria and others who have a legitimate voice that needs to be heard.” – U.S. secretary of state Hillary Clinton said Wednesday during a visit to Croatia “We haven’t learned anything since the murder. We have here unprecedented political radicalization. We’ve gone farther than ever and now it turns out that the murder was just a stop on the way.” – Rachel Rabin Yaakov, sister of prime minister Yitzhak Rabin, speaking seventeen years after her brother’s assassination “I am going to make war on these people because the interior minister and the leaders of Ennahda have chosen the United States as their god – it is the Americans who are writing the laws and the new constitution.” – Nasreddine Aloui, a Tunisian imam, said in a Thursday night appearance on Ettounsiya television “The current circumstances require that we bear our responsibilities. We cannot leave the country in vacuum because it may lead to chaos…National issues cannot be resolved through stubbornness and obstinacy but through dialogue that allows reaching [solutions] that fortify Lebanon amid [current] dangerous regional circumstances.” – Lebanese prime minister Najib Miqati said last Tuesday  

Significant Middle East Developments Syria. The Syrian National Council (SNC) lashed out at the United States today, accusing Washington of trying to “undermine the Syrian revolution.” The SNC was reacting to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s announcement on Wednesday that the United States would work to reshape the Syrian opposition. Clinton declared that the SNC “can no longer be viewed as the visible leader of the opposition” because many of its members have “not been inside Syria for twenty, thirty, or forty years.” The U.S. announcement comes in advance of next week’s gathering of hundreds of opposition figures in Doha, Qatar, to form a more representative opposition group. Meanwhile, China has presented a new four-point peace plan which calls for a region-by-region ceasefire within Syria along with a political transition. Beijing’s plan, while slim on details, represents a more activist Chinese approach to the Syrian conflict. On the ground, the widely ignored Syrian ceasefire, brokered by UN-Arab League envoy Lakhdar Brahimi for the Eid holiday, ended with an escalation of violence earlier this week. The Syrian air force bombed targets across the country throughout the week, including the first reported strike against Damascus Tuesday, while rebel forces advanced in Idlib province after killing at least twenty-eight regime soldiers yesterday. Tunisia. Hundreds of Islamists attacked two national guard posts in the Tunis suburb of Manouba late Tuesday night. The violence resulted in the death of Khaled Karaoui, the imam of the Ennour mosque in Manouba, who died yesterday from wounds sustained during the assault. Another attacker was killed and two members of the security forces were injured. Further protests continued throughout the week, prompting Tunisian president Moncef Marzouki to extend the country’s state of emergency through January. The violence comes just days after the one year anniversary of Tunisia’s widely touted elections, following the ouster of former president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Egypt. Several hundred Salafist Muslims protested in Tahrir Square today demanding a stronger reference to sharia, Islamic law, in Egypt’s new constitution. Amr Darrag, Secretary General of the hundred-person Constituent Assembly responsible for drafting the constitution, announced earlier this week that consensus over the draft constitution is nearing 100 percent in the Assembly. Meanwhile, the Egyptian government resumed negotiations with the International Monetary Fund over a $4.8 billion loan on Wednesday. The IMF delegation is expected to remain in Egypt for at least a couple of weeks while discussing an economic reform program that will focus heavily on reducing the explosive issues of energy subsidies. CIA director David Petraeus also arrived in Cairo on Wednesday to begin a two day visit for security and counterterrorism talks with Egyptian officials. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Libya. Citing U.S. officials briefed on the details, the Wall Street Journal reported today that the American presence in Benghazi leading up to the 9/11 attack “was at its heart a CIA operation.” The Journal reported that of the more than thirty U.S. officials who were evacuated from Benghazi after the assault on the post, only seven were State Department employees. The most recent accounts of the attack to emerge suggest miscommunication between the CIA and the State Department over roles and responsibilities for security at the Benghazi facility. Congressional critics accuse the CIA of invoking secrecy to shield itself from blame, a charge the Agency’s defenders deny. Kuwait. Mussallam al-Barrak, an opposition leader and former parliamentarian, was released yesterday as a result of the previous day’s demonstrations in which thousands of protesters clashed with police Wednesday night. Kuwait’s Interior Ministry released a statement yesterday saying it will “firmly” confront any new protests. Activists have called for a major new street demonstration this Sunday. Kuwait had banned any public gathering of more than twenty people last week after more than one hundred thousand people participated in a protest on October 21. Parliamentary elections are scheduled for December 1. West Bank. The Palestinian news agency Ma’an reported Wednesday that Palestinian prime minister Salam Fayyad presented a plan to the PLO leadership calling for the formation of a new government composed of representatives from all Palestinian factions. Other media reported that Fayyad effectively offered his resignation by suggesting that he not participate in that new government. Meanwhile, Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas denied yesterday that Fayyad had any such intentions in an interview with Israel’s Channel 2. Other reports suggest Abbas has urged Palestinian officials to prevent Fayyad from resigning. Lebanon. Lebanese speaker Nabih Berri announced the postponement of the upcoming parliamentary session scheduled for November 7 because of the opposition March 14 coalition’s decision to boycott government and parliament activities. The March 14 group has also called for the resignation of Prime Minister Najib Miqati’s cabinet in the wake of the October 19 Beirut car-bomb assassination of Internal Security Forces Information Branch chief Wissam al-Hassan. This Week in History Sunday marks the thirty-third anniversary of the takeover of the U.S. embassy in Tehran by Iranian protesters. The takeover initiated a prolonged subsequent hostage crisis in which fifty-two American diplomats were held for 444 days. While the hostages were ultimately released on January 20, 1981 after intensive international diplomacy and a failed U.S. rescue operation, the incident continues to scar U.S.-Iranian relations to this day. In Teheran today, demonstrators gathered in front of the former U.S. embassy in Tehran to celebrate the annual “Day of Fighting the Global Arrogance” and to  commemorate the embassy’s 1979 seizure.  

“How long can this situation continue? I mean in Bosnia, now we have Ban Ki-moon [the UN secretary general] apologising 20 years after. Who will apologise for Syria in 20 years’ time? How can we stay idle?” – Turkish foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu in an Istanbul interview   “The Lebanese people won’t accept, after today, the continuation of the government of assassination.” – Lebanese former prime iminister Fouad Siniora said during a funeral oration Sunday   “Netanyahu felt that the chance that he may lose the reigns of government are greater than ever…This is a move that effectively makes the Likud Lieberman’s party.”  –  Labor party leader Shelly Yachimovich on Thursday in response to the news of Likud’s merger with Yisrael Beiteinu   “Give it a rest, Obama…We want to get some sleep.” – a resident of Benghazi in a Twitter post Saturday in response to loud low-flying drones   “Why are you staying divided? There are no peace negotiations, and there is no clear strategy of resistance and liberation. Why shouldn’t brothers sit together and reconcile? Surely you realize that your division is the source of greater harm to your cause and the cause of all Arabs.” – Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani said during a speech at Gaza’s Islamic University on Tuesday   “There is no such thing as who is better (as a candidate)…If my cousin is running, I give it (the vote) to my cousin.” – Shafiq Deis, a 70-year-old carpenter in the town of Beit Sahour south of Jerusalem   “It’s good for the public to know that the [Egyptian] current leadership is acting against Hamas in a very tough way …I can tell you that Egypt’s actions against Hamas are much harsher than it was under the previous regime.” – Israeli vice premier Silvan Shalom on Thursday   “Being king, to me, is not a benefit that I seek, it is a responsibility…Governing was never for us about holding a monopoly over authority, nor about power and its tools, but about supporting state institutions run by Jordanians from all segments of society.” – Jordan’s king Abdullah on Tuesday   “It is clear today that the struggle is over Israel’s future image and values. The vote is between an extreme and isolated country and a Zionist and sane country. I was born into the Herut movement and I am aware of the values the Likud was supposed to represent but neglected.” – Former Kadima chairwoman Tzipi Livni on Thursday in response to the news of Likud’s merger with Yisrael Beiteinu   “It’s a moment of truth…We’re determined to change the status quo.” – Palestinian chief negotiator Saeb Erakat said in an interview Wednesday about the UN statehood bid

Significant Middle East Developments Syria. A deadly car bomb exploded in Damascus today just hours after the Eid holiday ceasefire, brokered by UN-Arab League envoy Lakhdar Brahimi between Syria’s regime and the Free Syrian Army, took effect. Over sixty people have been killed throughout Syria today despite the ceasefire. The bomb, detonated near a children’s playground, killed five people and wounded over thirty more. Clashes also broke out between regime troops and rebels in Damascus’ suburbs and around the Wadi Deif base in northwestern Syria, while army shelling was reported in Homs. Despite the violence, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights noted that it was still less than usual. Taking advantage of the relative lull in violence, the largest anti-regime protests in months gathered in the streets of several cities. The ceasefire is meant to be in place for the Eid holiday. Iran. Citing intelligence officials from several countries, the New York Times reported today that Iran has nearly completed its underground uranium enrichment plant at Fordo. The disclosure of the near-completion of Fordo comes just days after the New York Times reported the United States and Iran had reached an agreement to hold bilateral face-to face negotiations. White House and Iranian officials immediately denied that report. NSC spokesman Tommy Vietor addressed the Fordo reports, saying, “The president is determined to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon and continues to believe there is time and space for diplomacy.” Until last month, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu had implied that he would not allow the Fordo plant to go into operation, with other Israeli officials arguing that once it did, Iran would enter a “zone of immunity” since Israel does not possess the bunker-buster bombs necessary to destroy the plant. However, in his remarks before the UN General Assembly in September, Netanyahu seemingly backed off of that position, laying down a deadline of next spring before military action must be taken. Israel. With Israel slated to head to the polls on January 22, prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a surprise joint ticket Thursday between his Likud Party and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu Party. The joint list will be proportional to the two party’s current Knesset makeup, in which they jointly hold a total of forty-two seats – twenty-seven for Likud and fifteen for Yisrael Beiteinu. Israel’s Channel Two television reported last night that the two men had also agreed to rotate the position of prime minister, with Lieberman set to take over for the fourth year. However, both Lieberman and Netanyahu have denied the report. Jordan. Jordanian officials announced Sunday that they had thwarted a major terrorist plot to attack multiple civilian and diplomatic targets. The Jordanian government said it had apprehended eleven Jordanian nationals with links to Al Qaeda in Iraq, who were gathering weapons and explosives in Syria for use in Jordan. The plot has been described as the most serious in Jordan since 2005, when terrorists bombed a series of hotels, killing sixty people. West Bank. Palestinians in the West Bank went to the polls for municipal elections Saturday for the first municipal elections since 2005 and the first election of any kind since 2006. Abbas’ Fatah party was out-polled in five of the eleven main municipalities by lists composed of either former Fatah members now running independently, or other factions. Hamas boycotted the election. According to exit polling, more than one-third of voters listed jobs and economic conditions as their first concern. Post-election reactions have been mixed, with many Palestinians now calling for national elections. Nasser Lanham, editor-in-chief of the Maan News Agency said that “If there is no elections for the Parliament and the president, there will be a third intifada…We are talking about angry people, poor people. If they are not going to the elections, they have bad alternatives.” Lebanon. Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea yesterday accused Syria, Iran, and Hezbollah yesterday of exploding a powerful car bomb last Friday in a mostly Christian neighborhood in Beirut killing at least eight people including Major General Wissam al-Hassan, Lebanon’s top intelligence officer. Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah responded to Geagea’s comments, saying, “Any wise and patriotic [individual] would reject such comments that can only be welcomed by those who are willing to do a service to the Israeli enemy and its criminal plans.” Meanwhile, a U.S. FBI team arrived in Beirut yesterday to assist in the investigation at the Lebanese government’s request. The Lebanese army had deployed Monday to quell tensions following weekend protests which included gun battles in Beirut and Tripoli. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Gaza Strip. The emir of Qatar, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, visited Gaza Tuesday in the first visit by a head of state since Hamas violently took control of the territory in 2007. Entering Gaza from Egypt, Sheikh Hamad pledged four hundred million dollars in assistance to finance reconstruction projects. Yigat Palmor, a spokesman for the Israeli Foreign Ministry, said that the emir had “thrown peace under the bus” since his visit came just hours after a bombing from Gaza that wounded an Israeli soldier. Following the emir’s visit, Palestinian militants launched dozens of missiles into Israel that prompted Israeli retaliatory air strikes. Late Wednesday evening, Egypt managed to broker an informal truce between Hamas and Israel. Egypt. Egyptian president Mohammed Morsi met with various political factions Wednesday in an effort to forge unity around the draft constitution released last week. The meeting was boycotted by seventeen political parties and movements, including Mohammed el-Baradei and former presidential candidate Hamdeen Sabbahi. The consultations did not produce a compromise, and Morsi has said that he will resume working with groups to reach one after the Eid holiday. The Cairo Administrative Court announced on Tuesday that it was referring lawsuits challenging the composition of the Constituent Assembly to the Supreme Constitutional Court. The plaintiffs are challenging how the members of the Assembly, the panel responsible for drafting Egypt’s new constitution, were chosen. Yemen. Two senior Yemeni security officers were assassinated yesterday in a drive-by shooting in the city Damar, south of the capital Sana’a. Yemeni president Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi blamed Al Qaeda in a televised address late last night. This Week in History This week marks the fiftieth anniversary of the death of Enrico Mattei, the founder of the Italian energy company Eni. On October 27, 1962, Mattei died in an airplane crash, the cause of which remains unclear to this day, and was the subject of the 1972 Francesco Rosi film, The Mattei Affair. A partisan leader in the Italian resistance movement, Mattei helped create Eni after World War II to lead Italy’s energy sector. He was elected to represent the Christian Democrats in the first government formed by De Gasperi, only to resign in 1953 to become Eni’s president. Under Mattei, Eni developed the Po Valley in the late 1940s, and transformed it into the vast energy resource that fueled Italy’s post-war economic recovery. Internationally, Mattei helped break the oligopoly of the so-called “Seven-Sisters” that dominated the oil-industry, and took Eni into the Middle East, forging agreements with Tunisia, Morocco, Iran, and Egypt on favorable concessionary terms unheard of at the time. “The oil is theirs,” was Mattei’s famous motto, one that earned him disfavor with the other oil companies and Western countries at the time. Today, Eni is the world’s sixth largest oil company in the world with employees in 85 countries. In 2010, it endowed the Enrico Mattei Chair at CFR. It is my honor to be the first holder of the Enrico Mattei Chair. Today, Middle East Matters commemorates the fiftieth anniversary of its namesakes’ death.