Israel

The recent upsurge of mortars and rockets being fired into Israel from Gaza, the strong Israeli military reaction, and the possibility that a stronger reaction may yet come, have raised once again the issue of Israel’s relationship with the small area many Israelis call Hamastan. The visit to Gaza this week of the Emir of Qatar, who was the first foreign head of state to go there since Hamas took over in 2007 and who pledged $400 million in aid to Gaza, has also put the region back on the front pages. One view suggests that the Emir’s visit is simply a disaster. The money will be very helpful to Hamas and its continued rule. The visit by a head of state itself accords Gaza almost the status of a state—and thereby helps Hamas in its continuing struggle with Fatah and the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank. It legitimizes Hamas and its rule in Gaza, which is obviously bad for Israel, bad for the PA, and bad for the United States and all others who view Hamas as a terrorist group. But there is another view, put forward this week by the former Israeli National Security Advisor, retired Major General Giora Eiland. He thinks the visit and the aid were perfectly acceptable. He does not believe Israel has any particular interest in reuniting the West Bank and Gaza, rather than seeking a greater integration of Gaza with Egypt. He also notes that efforts by Israel to strengthen the PA and its leader, President Abbas, against Hamas quite often have the opposite effect. He also believes that weakening Hamas does not strengthen Abbas and Fatah in Gaza, because they are so weak there and unable to improve their situation. Instead, weakening Hamas strengthens even more extreme salafist and jihadi groups. He argues that to the extent that Hamas comes to be more like a stable government for Gaza, with a decent economy, it will have that much more to lose from confrontations with Israel. When many more valuable targets are at risk, he believes, Hamas will be more careful. Eiland says Israel’s only real interest in Gaza is security. He therefore urges a different policy. The first element is to respond extremely strongly to any attack that does come out of Gaza. No slow escalation, no signaling and messaging, just very quick and very tough responses that make Hamas pay a heavy price. Second, after every incident close the border completely and cut off electricity for a while. Again, that is treating Hamas like the government of Gaza and punishing it and its constituents for mortars, rockets, and border attacks. Third, don’t worry about visits by foreign leaders like the Emir of Qatar and the money they bring. And fourth, try to keep the passages between Egypt and Gaza open (though he admits there isn’t much Israel can do here). Israel’s interest is peace and quiet, he says, and this is the way to achieve it. It is a powerful argument. General Eiland, with whom I dealt often when working at the White House, is always worth listening to, always thoughtful, and often at variance with conventional wisdom. That it is in Israel’s interest to have Egypt play a larger role in Gaza is of course not a new idea, and the fact that elements of the Muslim Brotherhood now rule in both places makes this idea more realistic. And an open border between Egypt and Gaza would make the allegations that Israel has a blockade in effect on that area even more ridiculous than they are now. Still, there are costs. The further weakening of the PA is not, in my view, in Israel’s interest. Missing in Eiland’s proposal are additional, simultaneous moves to strengthen the West Bank economy, encourage rich Arab leaders to visit there, and take actions that lead (and enable) the PA to act more like a government that is responsible for maintaining security. Like the rest of us Gen. Eiland is not always right, but his arguments deserve a careful hearing and vigorous debate.

Half of the six topics the candidates will discuss in tonight’s third and final presidential debate are devoted to the Middle East, illustrating the centrality of that region to U.S. foreign policy. While winning the debate has become the objective of this exercise, the real purpose of the debate is to inform U.S. voters about where the candidates stand on key issues, and where they would lead the country as president from 2013 onwards. Both candidates will try to deploy as many facts and the names of as many obscure global locales to demonstrate their command of foreign affairs and their bona fides to serve as commander in chief. I would urge moderator Bob Schieffer to avoid getting sucked into games of “gotcha,” and instead try to tease out where the candidates seek to lead the country on issues that post challenges to U.S. interests and which directly affect U.S. lives and treasure. Here are eight issues I’ll be looking for President Obama and Governor Romney to address in tonight’s foreign policy debate. The Arab Uprisings and U.S. Interests. The Middle East has been embroiled in sustained demonstrations and revolution since December 2010 when popular Arab uprisings broke out. Leaders in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen have been forced from office, some at the urging of the United States. Are the uprisings sweeping through many parts of the Middle East good or bad for the Middle East and for U.S. vital interests in that part of the world? Just what are U.S. vital interests in the Middle East today? The Rise of Islamist Parties. Islamist parties appear to be on the ascendance in the Middle East. Dictators and autocrats have been replaced by Islamist leaders and parties in Egypt and Tunisia. Is this a dangerous development for the region and for the United States, a welcome development, or an inevitable outcome that the United States is powerless to influence in any case? Should the United States be doing more to affect the outcomes of struggles underway in the region? Do we have friends and allies we should be supporting in countries currently struggling over their futures, or is it not our place to interfere? Libya. Republicans and Democrats are currently locked into a fight over the events surrounding the tragic murder of four American officials in Benghazi on September 11, 2012, in Benghazi. Learning what happened on that fateful day and understanding how U.S. officials handled security in Libya is critical. But broader strategic questions still need to be answered about Washington’s Libya policies in the past and in the future: Was the U.S. intervention in Libya “the right war”? Having helped to defeat Muammar Qaddafi through military means, has the United States done enough to help secure the peace in Libya, and should we do more? Syria. Why was it right to intervene in Libya on humanitarian grounds, but not right to intervene in Syria where over thirty thousand people have been killed so far? What made Libya the right war and Syria not? Does the United States have strategic interests in Syria? Specifically: President Obama: You long ago called on Assad to step down, but have since focused exclusively on Syria’s chemical weapons arsenal as a red-line for U.S. action. Do you see events in Syria as an opportunity to weaken the hand of Syria’s key ally Iran? Do you intend to maintain a hands-off approach to Syria even as violence there spills over threatening Lebanon, Turkey, Jordan, Israel, and Iraq? Governor Romney: You have accused the president of failing to lead in Syria and have called for arming the opposition. While everyone in the United States wants Assad to go, how would you ensure that the United States improves the situation rather than makes it worse? And how would you ensure that things do not descend into chaos if Assad were to go? Given the importance you stress on the conflict, would you considering sending American troops to Syria? Egypt. Egypt is a pivotal country in the Middle East and the home to one quarter of all the Arab people. Is Egypt today, led by an Islamist leader, still an ally? Should the United States continue to provide billions of dollars annually to the Egyptian government, and should this continue to be military assistance, or should we provide greater economic and development assistance? Should conditions be placed on any U.S. assistance to Egypt, and if so what should they be? Israel. How would you assess our relationship with Israel, a country you both consider a friend and vital U.S. ally? How would you say the United States has handled our bilateral relationship? President Obama: you have visited many countries in the Middle East as president but not Israel, why? Governor Romney: you recently visited the Middle East and only visited Israel: why did you not visit any Arab countries including those where American troops are based? Israeli-Palestinian peace: President Obama: you took office and immediately identified Israeli-Palestinian peace as a top U.S. priority? Yet for the past year and a half, you have largely ignored this issue. Is that because you don’t think peace is possible or is it because you no longer think it is important to the United States? Governor Romney: Should Israeli-Palestinian peace efforts be a top priority for the United States? How would you pursue it, especially since you have been quoted saying that you see the Palestinians as “committed to the destruction and elimination of Israel”? Iran. A whole section of tonight’s debate is slated to address the issue of red-lines, Israel, and Iran. The core issue that American voters should hear about is precisely why is a nuclear Iran a threat to U.S. interests? Should such a development be prevented by any means, or are there circumstances where it might be unavoidable, even if it is “unacceptable”? Yes or no for both candidates: Are you willing to use military force to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons?

“An attack by the Zionist regime would be an opportunity to destroy that regime…Their defense mechanism is not planned for big and long wars. Their threats are only psychological and if they cross the limit or act upon those threats, (Israel) will definitely be destroyed.” –  General Hossein Salami, acting commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, was quoted by the semi-official ISNA news agency Thursday “One must distinguish between the fundamentalists that turn to violence and the others…If we demonise the Salafis, then in 10 or 15 years they will be in power.” – Rachid Ghannouchi, leader of Islamist Ennahda party in Tunisia said on Thursday “I worked hard with Olmert. Unfortunately, he suddenly retired. We discussed the borders, the exchange of territories and traded maps. We were close and reached many understandings.” – Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas said Sunday to Israeli politicians in the West Bank “Unilateral European and U.S. sanctions against Iran are irrational, illegal and inhumane, and are against the Iranian nation.” – Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Ramin Mehmanparast said Tuesday “Ramallah and Hebron are not part of the state of Israel, and I don’t think that Prime Minister Netanyahu plans to change that.” – Israeli deputy prime minister Dan Meridor told Voice of Israel Radio today in response to earlier reports that Netanyahu would endorse calls to change the legal status of Israeli settlements in the West Bank To read more on developments in the Middle East, click here.      

Significant Middle East Developments Syria. Iran and Turkey today endorsed UN-Arab League envoy Lakhdar Brahimi’s call for a cease-fire during the Eid al-Adha holiday that begins October 26. Brahimi proposed the cease-fire on Monday amidst ongoing violence throughout the country, and is scheduled to be in Damascus on Saturday. The Syrian regime has said it is ready to discuss the plan. Meanwhile, the EU passed a new set of sanctions on Monday including an assets freeze against twenty-eight Syrians and two companies. Turkey’s foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu on Sunday announced a ban on all Syrian aircraft entering Turkish airspace, following last week’s incident in which a Syria-bound flight from Moscow suspected of carrying military equipment was forced to land in Turkey for inspection. More than forty people were killed this afternoon when Syrian military aircraft bombed a town held by insurgents along a vital north-south highway in northern Syria. The bombardment was called among the most intense since Syria’s military began deploying warplanes and helicopters against insurgents in the country. Libya. Fighters belonging to a militia group associated with the Libyan army shelled the town of Bani Walid today, killing eleven people and wounding at least seventy-five more. The attack appears to be a response to the killing of Omar ben Shaaban, a former rebel from Misrata who allegedly had been kidnapped and tortured by men from Bani Walid. The militants, part of the Libya Shield militia from the Misrata area, claimed yesterday that they were acting under orders to advance into Bani Walid after Libya’s General National Congress authorized the defense and interior ministries to use “force if necessary” to find those responsible for Shaaban’s kidnapping. However, the army’s spokesman, Colonel Ali al-Sheikhi, denied giving such an order. Meanwhile, Libyan authorities have identified Ahmed Abu Khattala, the head of the Islamist group Ansar al-Shariah, as a leader of last month’s attack against the U.S. consulate in Benghazi. Abu Khattala remains at large. Egypt. Judges from Egypt’s Supreme Constitutional Court (SCC) on Tuesday criticized the Constituent Assembly, the body drafting Egypt’s constitution, for not ensuring the court’s independence from the executive branch. One article of the draft constitution would remove the court’s current authority to rule on the constitutionality of laws after they had been passed by parliament. Tahani el-Gibaly, a member of the SCC, said that “The revolution was about ensuring a democratic system, with balanced powers to protect the rights of the Egyptian citizen, but these clauses violate these rights.” The assembly is set to vote on the final draft in the second week of November, which will be followed by a public referendum. Meanwhile, Egyptian president Mohammed Morsi faced a political setback when his attempt to remove Prosecutor-General Abdel Meguid Mahmoud backfired. Last week, after the acquittal of twenty-four Mubarak regime figures, Morsi attempted to force Mahmoud to submit a letter of resignation and accept the post of ambassador to the Vatican. However, Mahmoud refused and a group of judges and lawyers criticized Morsi for trying to tamper with the judiciary. On Saturday Mahmoud returned to his job as prosecutor-general. Iran. The European Union invoked a new set of sanctions earlier this week against Iran’s banking and energy industries. More than thirty major Iranian state companies were designated by the EU for asset freezes, including the National Iranian Oil Company and the National Iranian Tanker Company. On Sunday, Iranian deputy industry minister Hamid Safdel announced that Iran will seek to cut its imports of nonessential goods. Safdel also said that Iran will provide subsidized rates to importers of basic goods. On Saturday, Industry Minister Mehdi Ghazanfari urged Iranians to buy items from domestic manufacturers to help the country contend with international sanctions. U.S. Foreign Policy Israel. The first of one thousand U.S. troops arrived in Israel today to take part in a joint missile-defense drill with their Israeli counterparts. U.S. Air Force General Craig Franklin, who planned the drill, described it as the largest joint exercise in the two countries’ history. Craig also noted that the drill had been planned for over two years and said that it was a purely defensive drill, unrelated to any specific developments in the region. However General Nitzan Nuriel, his Israeli counterpart, said that “anyone who wants can get any message he wants from this exercise.” Jordan. U.S. and Jordanian diplomatic sources told Al-Hayat on Monday that there is joint U.S.-Jordanian contingency planning underway to deal with the war in Syria. U.S. embassy spokesman Silvio Gonzalez said that “U.S. troops are regularly and routinely present on Jordanian territory to support are common goals.” Jordanian government spokesman Samih Maaytah said “all that exists is cooperation and the exchange of expertise.” More than one hundred U.S. troops were reportedly deployed to Jordan to provide aid in securing the border and in dealing with the flow of Syrian refugees. The two countries are also believed to be monitoring Syria’s chemical and biological weapons stocks. Libya. The New York Times reported on Monday that the Pentagon and State Department are speeding up plans to help create an elite counterterrorism Libyan commando force. The effort was already underway prior to last month’s attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi. Following the attack, Congress approved the shifting of approximately $8 million from Pentagon operations in Pakistan to Libya, although the program has not yet been officially announced. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Palestine. Palestinian officials are preparing for municipal elections throughout the West Bank on Saturday. Security forces and police were allowed to vote today so that they will be free to secure the voting process on Saturday. Hamas is boycotting the election and will not allow voting in the Gaza Strip. The last municipal election in 2005 resulted in a surge for Hamas, presaging its legislative victory in the 2006 parliamentary elections. Egypt, Jordan, and Israel. Egypt’s new ambassador to Israel, Atef Mohamed Salem Sayed Elahl, presented his credentials to Israeli president Shimon Peres on Wednesday. Elahl declared that “I came with a message of peace and I came to confirm that we are working for mutual trust and transparency and we are committed to all the agreements we signed with Israel.” Jordan’s new ambassador, Walid Khalid Abdullah Obeidat, also took up his post officially on Wednesday. Obeidat’s tribe in Jordan has vowed to disown him for accepting his new appointment. Meanwhile, Israel’s parliament voted to dissolve itself on Monday following Prime Minister Netanyahu’s call for early elections last week. Early general elections will be held on January 22. On Tuesday, Jordan announced that it will hold its parliamentary elections on January 23. Tunisia. The Tunisian government vowed on Wednesday to implement two decrees guaranteeing press freedom. The decrees were signed into law last November but have yet to be enacted.  The announcement came during a nation-wide strike of journalists to protest attempts to curb press freedom. On Monday, Human Rights Watch called on Tunisia to investigate a series of attacks by extremist Islamists over the past ten months, saying that the government’s failure to do so “may embolden them to commit more violence.” Yemen. A drone strike killed Nader Al Shaddadi, one of the top leaders of Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. The strike targeted a group of militants preparing to attack the Yemeni troops, and killed at least eight other people. This Week in History Saturday marks the one year anniversary of the death of Muammar Qaddafi, the dictator who ruled Libya for more than forty-two years. On October 20, 2011, almost three months after the fall of Tripoli, rebels discovered Qaddafi hiding in a drainage pipe on the side of the road leading out of Sirte, his hometown. Qaddafi was still alive when apprehended but was killed within hours by a gun shot to the head.

The relationship between the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan and the West Bank, which it ruled from 1948 to 1967, remains in question despite the late King Hussein’s renunciation of all claims to the West Bank in an interesting address to the Jordanian people in 1988.  Here are excerpts:   Arab unity between any two or more countries is an option of any Arab people. This is what we believe. Accordingly, we responded to the wish of the Palestinian people’s representatives for unity with Jordan in 1950. From this premise, we respect the wish of the PLO, the sole and legitimate representative of the Palestinian people, to secede from us as an independent Palestinian state. We say that while we fully understand the situation, nevertheless, Jordan will remain the proud bearer of the message of the Great Arab Revolt, adhering to its principles, believing in one Arab destiny, and committed to joint Arab action. Regarding the political consideration, since the June 1967 aggression we have believed that our actions and efforts should be directed at liberating the land and the sanctities from Israeli occupation. Therefore, we have concentrated all our efforts over the past twenty-one years of occupation on that goal. We did not imagine that maintaining the legal and administrative relationship between the two banks could constitute an obstacle to liberating the occupied Palestinian land. Hence, in the past and before we took measures, we did not find anything requiring such measures, especially since our support for the Palestinian people’s right to self-determination was clear. Lately, it has transpired that there is a general Palestinian and Arab orientation which believes in the need to highlight the Palestinian identity in full in all efforts and activities that are related to the Palestine question and its developments. It has also become clear that there is a general conviction that maintaining the legal and administrative links with the West Bank, and the ensuing Jordanian interaction with our Palestinian brothers under occupation through Jordanian institutions in the occupied territories, contradicts this orientation. King Hussein’s argument suggests that if conditions were to change over time, and if the PLO were to change its view, the Jordanian role might also change.  (There is a separate argument that in any event the King’s decision is void as violating the Jordanian constitution.  Article 1 states "The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan is an independent sovereign Arab State. It is indivisible and inalienable and no part of it may be ceded." But neither Palestinian nor Jordanian leaders have spoken in public about a possible Jordanian role in the West Bank, and have often denounced any proposal for a link between the two as lending credibility to those Israelis who argue that "Jordan is Palestine." King Abdullah, the reigning monarch, said this in 2010: Jordan does not want any part of the West Bank. The only credible solution, is the two state solution. There is no Jordanian solution.... the Palestinians want their own state." In this context some October 9 remarks by Prince Hassan of Jordan, brother of the late King Hussein, are worth note.  Hassan is quoted in a MEMRI account of Jordanian press reports. The prince said that "the West Bank is part of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, which included both banks of the [Jordan] River" and added that Hassan "did not personally oppose the two state solution, but that this solution is irrelevant at the current stage." He later added that even if the two state solution does not materialize, there are other options. According to Hassan, "both sides, Arab and Israeli, no longer speak of a political solution to the Palestinian problem." He implied that even the Oslo Accords had met their end, and said that Arab losses from the Accords are estimated at $12 billion. The report added: "The attendees understood that Prince [Hassan] is working to reunite both banks of the [Jordan] River, and commended him for it." Prince Hassan later added: "The unity that existed between the west and east banks for 17 years... was arguably one of the best attempts at unity that ever occurred in the Arab [world]... I hope that I do not live to see the day when Jordan, or the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, relinquishes the land occupied in 1967 by the IDF, since it would bring us all to witness the humiliating end.... It remains to be seen whether this was a statement the prince now regrets making, and one that will never be repeated, or something more. As he has no position in the Jordanian government, he is ideally situated to put ideas such as these in circulation without suggesting that the Government of Jordan or King Abdullah II agree with anything he is saying. Yet his statement will inevitably lead to discussion on both banks of the Jordan about the future relationships between them--political as well as economic.

Significant Middle East Developments Egypt. Hundreds of people were injured today when supporters and opponents of Egyptian leader Mohammed Morsi clashed violently in Tahrir Square for the first time since the president took office in June. Morsi’s critics took to the streets primarily to demand a more representative Constituent Assembly, the body tasked with writing Egypt’s new constitution. They also protested the president’s performance to date. The Brotherhood supporters, in turn, protested Wednesday’s acquittal of twenty-four Mubarak regime figures accused of inciting the infamous camel attacks against protesters in Tahrir Square on February 2, 2011. Members of the Muslim Brotherhood-organized demonstration stormed a stage set-up by the liberal activists, while opposition supporters set fire to two empty buses belonging to the Muslim Brotherhood. Turkey-Syria. Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov stated today that the Syrian plane forced to land in Turkey while en route from Moscow to Damascus on Wednesday was legally carrying Russian duel use missile defense radar parts to Syria. Yesterday, Turkish prime minister Recep Erdogan claimed that the commercial jetliner carried Russian military tools, equipment, and ammunition in contravention of international law. Turkish war planes intercepted the Syrian aircraft on Wednesday and forced it to land in Ankara. Russia has demanded a detailed accounting of what Turkish officials found on the plane. Meanwhile, Turkey scrambled two fighter jets to the border today after a Syrian helicopter bombed a Syrian border town. Syria’s ambassador to the UN, Bashar al-Ja’afari, sent a communique Thursday night to the UN Security Council calling for a halt to “Turkish violations and provocations” and “unjustifiable aggressive behavior” in responding to Syrian shells that had fallen in Turkey last week. Turkish military chief General Necdet Ozel, speaking to troops along the Syrian border on Wednesday, threatened a stronger Turkish response if Syria’s shelling continues. Syrian rebels have escalated their offensive inside Syria in the past two days, capturing an air defense base near Aleppo and killing over one hundred regime soldiers. Israel. Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu called for early parliamentary elections on Tuesday after concluding that he could not pass the 2013 state budget. Two days later, Netanyahu proposed January 22, 2013 for Israel’s nineteenth general election. According to recent polls, the prime minister’s Likud party would increase the number of seats in parliament in the next vote. Legislation to dissolve the current parliament is expected to be put to a vote next week. Meanwhile, Israeli jets last Saturday shot down a drone flying over the southern part of the country.  Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah took credit for assembling and deploying the drone into Israel in a televised address on Thursday, calling it a milestone in the “history of the resistance.” U.S. Foreign Policy Libya. The House Oversight and Government Reform Committee held contentious hearings on Wednesday into the security situation at the U.S. consulate in Benghazi prior to the September 11 attack there that killed four American officials, including ambassador Chris Stevens. Eric Nordstrom, the former regional security officer at the U.S. embassy in Libya, told the hearing that he had been discouraged by officials at the State Department from requesting more military security support. Charlene Lamb, the deputy assistant secretary for international programs in the Bureau of Diplomatic Security, said that Nordstrom’s request would not have made a difference because it had asked to retain a special team that was stationed in Tripoli, not in Benghazi. Meanwhile, the new ambassador to Libya, Laurence Pope, arrived in Tripoli yesterday. Yemen. Qassem Aqlan, a Yemeni native who worked as a senior security investigator for the U.S. embassy in Sanaa, was shot and killed by masked gunmen on a motorcycle yesterday. State Department spokesperson Victoria Nuland denied initial reports that Aqlan had been investigating last month’s security breach when protesters broke through the compound’s outer perimeter. Aqlan had worked for the embassy for eleven years. Quotes of the Week “We have all necessary plans in place to protect and defend Turkey if necessary.” NATO secretary general Anders Fogh Rasmussen told reporters in Brussels on Tuesday “[Iran] is not seeking to invade anyone but will not succumb to any attack or act of aggression.” – Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said today “We [vow] to take the battle in Syria to the heart of the [Beirut] southern suburbs if [Hezbollah] does not stop supporting the killer Syrian regime.” – Fahd al-Masri, an FSA spokesman, told Asharq al-Awsat in an interview published Tuesday “If we leave Syria further, we will aggravate the situation more and more…Fanatics will emerge…We should not leave it until a stage where, God forbid, somebody calls for jihad, and then we cannot stop people coming from all directions.” – Khalid Bin Mohammad al-Attiyah, Qatar’s foreign minister said in an interview today While We Were Looking Elsewhere Libya. The International Criminal Court held its first public hearing in the case of Seif al-Islam, Moammar Qaddafi’s son, this week. The Libyan government argued before international judges in The Hague on Tuesday that Libya should be allowed to try Seif rather than hand him over to the ICC for prosecution. Ahmed Jihani, a Libyan lawyer, argued that it would be a “unique opportunity for national reconciliation.” Seif’s defense lawyers argued that he would not receive a fair trial in Libya. Jordan. King Abdullah swore in a 21-member caretaker cabinet yesterday after appointing reformist Abdullah Ensour prime minister on Wednesday. The king dissolved parliament and called for early elections last week. Ensour met with members of the IAF, the Muslim Brotherhood’s political arm as well as trade union leaders yesterday after the Muslim Brotherhood threatened to boycott the upcoming elections. Bahrain. Police fired teargas and stun grenades to break up hundreds of anti-government protesters in central Manama today. Ten people were reported arrested. A second protest of thousands, organized by the main opposition party al-Wefaq, unfolded outside the city without incident. This Week in History This week marks the thirty-ninth anniversary of the Yom Kippur/Ramadan War. On October 6, 1973, Egypt launched a coordinated surprise military attack with Syria against Israeli forces. In the initial phase, Egyptian forces breached the so-called Bar-Lev line and pushed Israeli forces back from the Suez Canal, recapturing parts of Sinai while Syrian forces broke through to the Golan Heights. After sustained fighting and heavy casulaties on both sides, Israel successfully turned the tide on the battlefield and rolled back Egypt and Syria’s initial gains. While Israel ultimately triumphed militarily, it was dealt a major psychological blow. The Israeli commission of inquiry set up to investigate Israel’s lack of preparedness for the war—the Agranat Commission—called for dismissal of a number of senior Israeli military officers, and helped precipitate the resignation of then prime minister Golda Minister. This past Saturday, current Egyptian president Mohammed Morsi used the occasion of the war’s anniversary to detail the purported successes of his first one hundred days in office to a crowd of sixty thousand assembled at the Cairo Stadium.

If it is “unbreakable,” “unshakeable,” and “a common commitment,” the United States and Israel are sure to share it, at least that is what American politicians of all stripes have been telling the American people for as long as anyone can remember.  There are, of course, influential voices who question the premise of these ties, but for a variety of political, strategic, and moral reasons, Washington and Jerusalem have what is known as a “special relationship.”  This is essentially a fact of U.S.-Middle East policy, which is why the current conversation about relations between the countries is so curious. Suffice it to say that Israel’s supporters are deeply unhappy about the way things have gone since almost the moment President Obama took office.  It’s true, there were Obama missteps.  Sticking it to the Israelis over settlement growth was, in principle, a good thing, but doing it at the same time as offering to talk to the Iranian leadership about anything anywhere was not the best way to start off.  Still, this was more clumsy than an effort to undermine that unshakeable bond between Washington and Jerusalem. Things have only gotten worse since.  Some of Israel’s supporters have argued that not only does President Obama have no affinity for Israel, but also, in the words of Noah Pollak of the Emergency Committee for Israel, he has “abused” Israel.  This is very tough stuff, the evidence for which is a litany of complaints ranging from the president’s good relations with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and fears that the 2010 Nuclear Security Summit would force a discussion of Israel’s unacknowledged nuclear arsenal -- which led Prime Minister Netanyahu to cancel his appearance (he sent a minister instead) -- to Dinnergate.  Others have told me that even though the President has said all the right things, they simply do not believe that this administration would come to Israel’s defense.  I have no reason to doubt the sincerity of these feelings, but tension between American and Israeli leaders is nothing new, though the complaints lodged against President Obama reveal a certain skittishness about the arguments marshaled to justify special relations with Israel. President Obama is not the first American leader to clash with the Israelis. Indeed, a pattern of friction and cooperation mark the history of the U.S.-Israel relationship. Presidents Eisenhower, Carter, Reagan (yes, even the Gipper), George H. W. Bush, and Clinton all, at one time or another, had trouble with their Israeli counterparts.  None of this was a function of animus, but rather the different way the world looks from Washington and Jerusalem.  When, for example, President Eisenhower pressured the Israelis out of Sinai in November 1956 it was due to Cold War considerations. President Reagan delayed the delivery of F-16s to Israel over the IDF’s bombing of PLO facilities in Beirut in 1981 that killed 300 civilians and threatened to widen into a regional conflict that would have implications for U.S.-Soviet relations (not very good at the time). President George H. W. Bush believed that Israeli settlements were in part undermining his ability to establish a New World Order that would be good for Israel’s security.  After all, wasn’t the post-Operation Desert Storm Madrid peace conference a step in the direction toward peace and recognition among states that had previously refused to sit down with Israel?  For all of President Clinton’s declarations of “shalom chaver” after the assassination of Yitzhak Rabin and his obvious empathy for Israel, this did not preclude difficult relations between Clinton and Benjamin Netanyahu when he served as prime minister between 1996 and 1999.  The Clinton administration viewed the Oslo process as not only the pathway to lasting peace between Israelis and Palestinians, but also the means through which democratic change might take place.  So for all the alleged hostility that President Obama harbors for Israel, his difficulties are not all that different from any number of his predecessors, even those with solidly pro-Israel credentials. It is odd that American presidents are supposed to have an emotional attachment to Israel.  Some may, but some may not.  Does it matter if Jerusalem is Washington’s strategic partner?  It shouldn’t, but the emphasis on what a president feels in his heart suggests perhaps that even as folks make the case for Israel’s strategic benefit to the United States, they understand that this may not actually be a strong enough argument.  I am not saying that Israel is of no strategic benefit—the prepositioning of equipment (which can be used by the IDF in the event of a crisis), intelligence cooperation, and  joint development of weapons systems like the Arrow and Iron Dome are all valuable to the United States, but they are not necessarily decisive.  This is why, for pro-Israel groups, it is imperative to know that American presidents feel Israel in their hearts.  It makes up for the fact that when you get down to brass tacks, the U.S.-Israel relationship is not as strategic as some might suggest. Still, I am not sure what all the fuss is about. In a perfect world American and Israeli leaders would get on well, hit the links, and play Matkot while further developing the special relationship.  It’s never been perfect, but Israel’s supporters actually now have the next best thing.  By virtually all reports, President Obama and Prime Minister Netanyahu have a frosty relationship, yet U.S.-Israel relations still work extremely well.  According to my friend and colleague Colin Kahl who was the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East from 2009 until late 2011, the Obama administration did more than any of its predecessors to ensure Israel’s qualitative military edge, has forged unprecedented intelligence cooperation with the Israelis, and put together a broad international coalition to sanction Iran over its nuclear program.  All of this is intended to help ensure Israel’s security. Against this backdrop, who cares whether President Obama called the Turkish prime minister thirteen times in 2011 or that he did not invite Prime Minister Netanyahu to dinner?  The point is that the U.S.-Israel relationship is so robustly institutionalized that even when their leaders do not get along, the two countries do.  That’s a good thing, no?

Significant Middle East Developments Israel and Palestine. Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the UN General Assembly yesterday within minutes of one another, with each focusing on divergent issues. Abbas lashed out strongly at Israel and called for the creation of a Palestinian state. Netanyahu, in turn, attempted to convince world leaders, the United States in particular, that a red line must be drawn on Iran’s nuclear program to avoid a military confrontation. I wrote a "First Take" analyzing both leaders’ speeches yesterday, which can be read here. Iran. General Mohammad Ali Jafari, the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, said today that Israel’s purported threats of military action only serve to reinforce Iranian “determination to continue in the same direction.” On Wednesday, Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmedinejad addressed the UN general assembly for the last time as president of Iran in a speech seemingly to lack his usual fire and infamous Holocaust denials. My colleague Ray Takeyh prepared an excellent "First Take" on the Iranian leader’s remarks. On Tuesday, Iran’s Intelligence Ministry claimed it possessed new evidence of attempts to sabotage Iran’s nuclear program through computer-virus infected equipment from the United States, France, and Germany. The announcement followed a statement over the previous weekend that Iranian security officials had discovered explosives inside equipment purchased from the German company Siemens. President Obama in New York.  President Barack Obama spoke before the UN General Assembly on Tuesday, paying tribute to slain Ambassador to Libya Christopher Stevens and then providing a vigorous defense of freedom of speech, particularly in the Middle East. Connecting the transformations across the Arab world to the ideals of the United Nations and to freedom of speech, Obama said “true democracy, real freedom is hard work.” Before concluding, Obama addressed Iran’s nuclear program, saying, “the United States will do what we must to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.” For an excellent analysis of the President’s speech, see my colleague Jim Lindsay’s "First Take" here. Egypt.  In response to President Obama’s UN remarks calling free speech a universal value, Egyptian president Mohammed Morsi called for restrictions on offensive speech in his General Assembly remarks on Wednesday. Instead, he urged the UN to consider international action against speech that defames religions, saying “Egypt respects freedom of expression…Not the freedom of expression that deepens that deepens ignorance and disregards others.” Morsi criticized the world’s approach towards the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, calling it shameful that a “member of the international community would continue to deny the rights of a nation that seeks independence.” He also declared that stopping the bloodshed in Syria is “our main concern.” Speaking separately to Charlie Rose, Morsi reaffirmed his doubts about the perpetrators of the September 11, 2001 attacks against the United States, saying, “However I do not see any tribunal that was held in a clear way to decide for sure who did this and who helped who.” Syria. Rebel and regime forces continued to clash in Aleppo today in the second day of what has been termed a major offensive by the opposition. The escalation follows reports that Wednesday was the deadliest day of the uprising with three hundred and five deaths reported across the country. Rebel forces also bombed headquarters of the army and air force in Damascus on Wednesday. The leadership of the Free Syrian Army has relocated from Turkey to the “liberated areas” of Syria, according to a video statement released on Saturday by Colonel Riad al-Asaad, the FSA’s commander-in-chief. On Wednesday, Egyptian president Mohammed Morsi used his UN General Assembly remarks to declare his support for Assad’s departure and his opposition to foreign intervention, contrary to Qatari emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, who called the previous day for a unilateral Arab intervention to stop the conflict. Libya. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta told reporters on Thursday that the September 11 attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi “was a terrorist attack.” U.S. intelligence officials have shared their belief that the militants involved were largely connected to Libyan Islamist militant group Ansar Al-Sharia, but that one or two individuals had connections to Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb. The State Department has continued to withdraw staff from the embassy due to heightened security alert. Mohammed Magarief, the head of Libya’s new General National Congress, promised to disarm militias, but a militia attack on a Tripoli hotel Tuesday housing members of the GNC and an admission that a large number of shoulder-fired heat-seeking missiles were stolen over the weekend underscores the difficulty of the task. Quotes of the Week “We are in an election period, so maybe this isn’t a diplomatic way to say it, but I hope that after the election the American government looks at this matter in different way.” – Qatari prime minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani told CNN on Monday “The legitimacy that I represent before you today was not the product of a fleeting moment... this revolution... was triggered by a long struggle of genuine national movements that sought a life of pride and dignity for all citizens. It is thereby reflecting the wisdom of history and sending a clear warning to those attempting to put their interests before the will of the people.” – Egyptian president Mohammed Morsi said in his first address to the UN General Assembly on Wednesday “It is time for Israel to turn around, look at the future we share, and make a just and lasting peace with the Palestinians.” – King Abdullah II of Jordan said on Tuesday in his address to the UN General Assembly “The two-state solution is the only sustainable option. Yet the door may be closing, for good.” – UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon told the UN General Assembly on Tuesday “The economic conditions in the West Bank, Gaza and Jerusalem were much better before Oslo.” – Moussa Abu Marzouk, deputy head of Hamas, said in an interview on Tuesday While We Were Looking Elsewhere Gaza. Hamas’ leader Khaled Meshaal will not seek reelection as the movement’s head, Salah Bardawil, a senior Hamas official confirmed on Sunday. Potential candidates to replace Meshaal include current Prime Minister Ismail Haniya and deputy chief of Hamas Mousa Abu Marzouq. Meanwhile, hundreds of protesters in Gaza called for Hamas’ overthrow on Tuesday after a three-year-old boy died in a fire caused by a lit candle during a power outage. The boy’s father proclaimed that he holds “both the governments in Gaza and in the West Bank responsible for what happened to us,” while Taher Al-Nono, a Hamas spokesman, blamed Egypt for delaying efforts to solve the energy crisis in Gaza. Also on Tuesday, Qatari ambassador Muhammad al-Imadi announced that Qatar is planning on providing $450 million in assistance to the Gaza Strip over the next three years. Kuwait. Kuwait’s highest court rejected a bid by the government on Tuesday to change the electoral boundaries. The opposition had promised to take to the streets in protest if the ruling was in favor of the government. This Week in History This week marks the eightieth anniversary of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. On September 23, 1932, King Abd al-Aziz ibn Saud issued a royal decree that unified the kingdoms of the Hejaz and Najd into one realm. The unification of the Hejaz and Najd capped three decades of conquest led by Ibn Saud, beginning with the capture of Riyadh in 1902, and the subsequent establishment of the Saudi state that exists today.  

On a personal note, I send my heartfelt condolences to the families and friends of Ambassador Chris Stevens, Sean Smith, Glen Doherty, and Tyrone Woods killed in Benghazi on Tuesday. Chris and I were in the history department together at the University of California, Berkeley, in the early 1980s, and then later worked together for many years at the State Department. We were also neighbors for some years in Washington and had many a chat about California and the Middle East. Chris loved both passionately. He was kind, modest, and handsome, with a disarming, easy going manner and a first-rate mind. He led courageously and gracefully through example. Chris was the best of America, the best of the State Department, and the best of our native California. I am honored to have known him and mourn his death and those of his colleagues. Significant Middle East Developments The region. Demonstrations continued today across the Middle East, two days after violence erupted against U.S. diplomatic posts in Egypt and Libya in apparent protests over a movie allegedly defaming the prophet Mohammed. The film, believed to be produced in the U.S., was called “disgusting and reprehensible” today by Secretary of State Clinton. Demonstrators in Yemen today briefly breached the U.S. embassy before being driven back by security forces, while protests emerged in Tunisia, Morocco, the Gaza Strip, Tel Aviv, Iran, Iraq, and Sudan. Further demonstrations are expected region-wide on Friday. Libya. U.S. ambassador Christopher Stevens and three other staffers were killed at the U.S. consulate in Benghazi on Tuesday. Today, Libyan officials announced the arrest of four people for the Benghazi attack that killed Ambassador Stevens, and said that a larger network of people is under surveillance. Wanis al-Sharef, Libya’s deputy interior minister, announced that the militants who carried out the attack are suspected of intentionally choosing the anniversary of 9/11 and of using the civilians protesting the film as cover. The quick action follows immediate condemnation of the attack and the promise of Mohammed Magarief, the head of Libya’s national assembly, to bring justice to the killers. Magarief also apologized, saying “We extend our apology to America, the American people and the whole world.” Several Libyan security personnel were killed while trying to defend the U.S. consulate. Egypt. Protests that began Tuesday with the storming of the U.S. embassy compound and burning of the U.S. flag turned more violent today in Tahrir Square as demonstrators wielding rocks and Molotov cocktails clashed with security forces armed with tear gas.  In stark contrast to the Libyan government’s response, Egyptian president Mohamed Morsi gave a televised address today in which he expressed support for peaceful protests and emphasized the need for legal measures regarding the offensive film. His statement also included a lackluster pledge to protect foreigners and embassies. The U.S. embassy’s usual strict security perimeter appeared abandoned on Tuesday when the mob of protesters first descended. Morsi’s first response to the protests that have raged since Tuesday afternoon came late on Wednesday in a Facebook post where he mainly denounced the film. The Muslim Brotherhood meanwhile has called for nationwide protests on Friday to “denounce offenses to religion and to the Prophet” encouraging “all national forces” to participate. Israel-Iran. President Obama and Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu held an hour-long phone conversation Tuesday night after Netanyahu indirectly criticized Secretary Clinton’s statements that the United States was “not setting deadlines” regarding Iran’s nuclear program. Netanyahu’s comments were followed by reports from Jerusalem that Obama had refused Israeli requests to meet Netanyahu at the UN General Assembly in New York later this month. National Security Council spokesman Tommy Vietor denied that there were any disagreements, saying that there would be no meeting due to scheduling issues since “they’re simply not in the city at the same time.” Meanwhile the thirty-five nation board of the IAEA passed a resolution today rebuking Iran for not taking actions to diminish concerns over its nuclear program. Yukiya Amano, the IAEA chief, had expressed his frustration with Iran on Monday when he said “We need to stop going around in circles.” Quotes of the Week "I don’t think that we would consider them an ally, but we don’t consider them an enemy." – President Barak Obama said in an interview with Telemundo aired by MSNBC on Wednesday “There were mishaps. There were things I regret, a lot of blabbering and chattering that I would have been happy to have avoided…This is one of those issues about which a measure of restraint must be shown, because this battle is serious, it’s being conducted in a serious fashion and it will continue to be so.” – Intelligence and Atomic Energy Minister Dan Meridor told the Knesset on Wednesday regarding recent developments in U.S.-Israel relations over Iran’s nuclear program “I am the first to be held responsible for the situation in the West Bank, and Fayyad is part of the Palestinian Authority…He should not be held fully responsible.” – Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas at a news conference in Ramallah on Saturday While We Were Looking Elsewhere West Bank. Palestinian activists have called for mass protests on Friday to abrogate the Oslo Accords and the 1994 Paris Protocol governing economic relations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority. Meanwhile, two major unions suspended their protests until Sunday to give dialogue with the PA a chance. The protests erupted over a week ago and were initially sparked by rising fuel prices and the PA’s inability to pay salaries. However, the protests turned violent on Monday, when protesters burned tires and threw rocks at police officers. In attempts to curb the crisis, Palestinian prime minister Salam Fayyad announced on Tuesday cuts to taxes and fuel prices. Israel also announced on Wednesday that it will expedite the transfer of fifty-seven million dollars in tax revenue to the Palestinian Authority. Iraq. An Iraqi court sentenced Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi, a prominent Sunni Muslim politician, to death on Sunday. Hashimi, who is currently in Turkey, denounced the sentence, calling it politically inspired. President Jalal Talabani expressed his regrets about the sentence, saying that it could “complicate efforts to achieve national reconciliation” between Sunnis and Shia in Iraq. The sentence came on the same day as a wave of bombings and shootings that have killed at least one hundred people. Syria. The new United Nations-Arab League envoy for Syria, Lakhdar Brahimi, arrived in Damascus today for his first official visit in his new post. Kristalina Georgieva, the EU humanitarian chief, said on Tuesday that regime forces and rebels are committing an increasing number of humanitarian violations. Syrian rebels killed at least eighteen regime soldiers on Wednesday in the northwest town of Saraqeb, and regime soldiers are thought to have killed over one hundred and thirty people on Tuesday. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon spoke at the UN Human Rights Council on Monday and called for all war criminals in Syria to be brought to justice. This Week in History This week marks the ninth anniversary of the signing of the Oslo Accords. On this date nine years ago, Israeli and PLO officials signed the historic agreement on the White House lawn. My colleague Jim Lindsay discusses those negotiations and why they failed to produce a lasting peace on his blog, The Water’s Edge in a new installment of  History Lessons. You can read the blog here and watch the video of “History Lessons” here.

Significant Middle East Developments Iran. The International Atomic Energy Agency briefed members with a series of satellite images yesterday further suggesting nuclear sanitation at Iran’s Parchin site. One diplomat called the imagery “pretty compelling.” The closed door briefing follows the agency’s release last week of a confidential report suggesting “extensive activities” at Parchin since February. Iran’s nuclear activities were the topic of an Israeli security cabinet meeting that Prime Minister Netanyahu abruptly cancelled on Wednesday after the mass-circulation newspaper Yediot Aharonot reported that a member of the security cabinet claimed that there was no agreement among security officials “about the point at which Israeli’s ability to damage the Iranian nuclear program loses its effectiveness.” Meanwhile, U.S. army deputy chief James Winnefield reportedly paid a “secret trip” to Israel, following last weekend’s comments by Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman Martin Dempsey that he didn’t want to be “complicit” in an Israeli attack on Iran. Winnefield apparently met with Israeli defense minister Barak to discuss Dempsey’s comments. Iran also hosted its third International Conference and Festival of Islamic Resistance in Isfahan. Lebanese and Palestinian representatives from Hezbollah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, among others gathered to discuss how to thwart U.S. and Israeli threats in the Middle East. Syria. The Syrian military stormed the village of Tal Shehab near Syria’s border with Jordan in a large-scale effort today to crack down on the uprising seeking to oust President Assad. Aid workers along the Jordanian border report that opposition fighters are working to keep border crossings open as Syrian soldiers shoot at refugees attempting to flee. The UN reported this week that August has been a record month for refugees, with over 100,000 fleeing Syria over the course of that month alone. A number of Middle East countries reiterated their condemnations of the Syrian regime, with Turkey referring to Syria as a “terrorist state,” Egyptian president Morsi warning Assad that his “time won’t be long,” and Arab foreign ministers denouncing Syria’s “crimes against humanity.” China’s position shifted as well, with officials there saying on Wednesday that “We and many countries support a period of political transition in Syria.” International condemnations of Syria came as the Free Syrian Army announced it would reorganize and restructure: “After a long period, we must restructure the army because we fear the proliferation of militias in Syria and want to preserve the country’s future." In an unusual news conference on Monday, Syrian minister of information Omran al-Zoubi announced that refugees were welcome to return “at any time.” Al-Zoubi went on to deride Egypt and Turkey for their condemnations of the Syrian government and called the opposition unfit for negotiations. U.S. Foreign Policy Developments Iraq. Three U.S. senators, Joseph Lieberman, Lindsey Graham, and John McCain met privately with Iraqi prime minister Nuri al-Maliki on Tuesday to discuss Iranian flights over Iraqi airspace suspected of carrying weapons to the Assad regime in Syria. The flights were reportedly suspended in March, following American objections, but resumed in July. The senators warned that Baghdad risked damaging relations with the United States if it allows Iran to use Iraqi airspace to fly arms to Syria. Iraqi officials claimed that there was no evidence that the flights carried arms and therefore cannot take strict measures. Quotes of the Week "The massacres in Syria that gain strength from the international community’s indifference are continuing to increase…The regime in Syria has now become a terrorist state." – Turkish prime minister Recep Erdogan told a meeting of his ruling AK Party on Wednesday “Why should Russia be the only one reassessing its position? Perhaps our negotiating partners should reassess their position…Because if you recall what happened in recent years... you will see that far from all of our partners’ initiatives ended the way they wanted them to.” – Russian president Vladimir Putin told Russia Today television in regards to Syria on Thursday “The clock is ticking at a different pace [for the United States and Israel]." – Israeli defense minister Ehud Barak speaking about differences between the two countries over Iran to a meeting of his Independence party While We Were Looking Elsewhere West Bank. Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas told reporters at the Arab League on Wednesday that he intends to seek a statehood upgrade at the United Nations General Assembly later this month. The announcement was preceded by Arab League chief Nabil al-Araby announcing that the Arab League supports the move, although such status is “not a definitive label” and that hopefully “circumstances will allow Palestine to become a fully-fledged member.” Meanwhile, Abbas said that the "Palestinian Spring" had begun, as Palestinian protests erupted in the West Bank over rising commodity prices. Libya. Muammar Qaddafi’s former spy chief Abdullah al-Senussi was extradited back to Libya from Mauritania on Wednesday. The International Criminal Court has issued a warrant for Senussi and has been trying to gain custody of him. Libyan officials are determined to see Senussi tried domestically. Libyan prime minister Abdurrahim el-Keib told reporters in Tripoli that Senussi “will have a fair trial according to international standards for human rights, the rights from which Libyans were deprived.” This Week in History This week marks the eighth anniversary of UN Security Council Resolution 1559, which aimed to remove all foreign forces from Lebanon and strengthen the country’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, and political independence. The resolution, passed on September 2, 2004, called for the withdrawal of all foreign troops from Lebanon, the disbanding and disarmament of Lebanese and non-Lebanese militias, the extension of the control of the government of Lebanon over all Lebanese territory, and free and fair presidential elections. Implementation stalled until the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri in February 2005, after which Syrian troops were forced out of Lebanon. Presidential elections were held in 2008, leading to the election of General Michael Sleiman. However, the delineation of the Syrian-Lebanese border and the disbanding and disarming of militias has yet to take place. Statistic of the Week The Israel Democracy Institute published its annual Democracy Index today of Israel’s population based on a representative sample of 1,025 respondents aged eighteen and older. The survey addressed how Israelis feel about their government, finding that while 59 percent do not think the government is handling the country’s problems well, 75.6 percent are optimistic about Israel’s future. The survey also found just 22.5 percent of Jewish respondents believe a peace deal will be signed with the Palestinians, while 38.7 percent of Israeli Arabs believe a peace deal will be reached. Postcript. Middle East Matters bids au revoir to Kelley Calkins, who has served the past two years as a CFR Research Associate. Kelley was integral to this blog’s creation and its ongoing publishing. Kelley is headed off for international adventure and will be sorely missed by me and everyone at CFR.