• United States
    Is the United States Spilling Its Allies’ Secrets?
    The news of the last few weeks has been filled with complaints that the United States is electronically spying not only on enemies but on allies as well. As I wrote in a previous blog post, if we have in fact targeted the cell phones of leaders of friends and allies, such as German Chancellor Angela Merkel, we should stop. Yes, the world is a dangerous place and gentlemen do read each others’ mail, but deliberately targeting the leader of an ally such as Germany is wrong and stupid. And especially so given the risk, these days, that such conduct will leak and damage important allied relationships. Spying this way on allies is bad enough. Revealing their secrets to the press is even worse. Yet we have a pattern of doing this when it comes to Israel, and the most recent example came on October 31. Earlier this past week a Syrian military base in Latakia was hit, and apparently an important quantity of missiles meant for delivery to Hezbollah were destroyed. There was speculation about the attack, including suggestions that Israel rather than Syrian rebels conducted it. But Israel remained mum, as it always does. It believes that its security is greatly enhanced by such silence, in part because bragging about these attacks might well humiliate Hezbollah or Assad and push them into some kind of retaliation. It is for this reason that Israel sought absolute American and Israeli official silence after its attack on the Syrian nuclear reactor in 2007. Indeed Israel still to this day, six years later, does not officially acknowledge that it conducted that attack. The United States remained silent about that attack until the danger of retaliation was thought to be gone. But once again this week American officials told the press that Israel was responsible for an attack on Syria as soon as it occurred. Here is the CNN story: Israeli warplanes struck a military base near the Syrian port city of Latakia this week, an Obama administration official told CNN on Thursday. An explosion at a missile storage site in the area was reported in the Middle Eastern press, but an attack has not been confirmed by the Israeli government. The target, according to the Obama administration official, was missiles and related equipment the Israelis felt might be transferred to the Lebanon-based militant group Hezbollah. The official declined to be identified because of the sensitive nature of the information. U.S. officials did this as recently as July, as a New York Times story reported: Israel carried out an air attack in Syria this month that targeted advanced antiship cruise missiles sold to the Syria government by Russia, American officials said Saturday. The officials, who declined to be identified because they were discussing intelligence reports, said the attack occurred July 5 near Latakia, Syria’s principal port city. And we did it in May: A series of powerful explosions rocked the outskirts of Damascus early Sunday morning, which Syrian state television said was the result of Israeli missile attacks on a Syrian military installation. If true, it would be the second Israeli airstrike in Syria in two days and the third this year...An American official, who asked not to be identified because he was discussing intelligence reports, said the targeted shipment consisted of Iranian-made Fateh-110s There is a pernicious pattern here, and other examples could be cited. Add this to the NSA revelations, and the United States seems to be aggressive in stealing the secrets of some close allies and aggressive in ignoring the interests of allies by conveying intelligence information to the press. The continuing leaks about what Israel has been doing are dangerous and damaging. Israel is acting where we are not, enforcing red lines when we have failed to do so, and assuming risks we have refused to take. We act as a poor ally if we repeatedly and indeed recklessly increase the risk to Israel by treating sensitive information as fodder for the press.
  • United States
    This Week: Syria Destroys CW Facilities, Egypt Continues Crackdown, and Washington Hosts Maliki
    Significant Developments Syria. The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons announced today that Syria had “completed rendering inoperable its chemical weapons production and assembly installations,” ahead of schedule. Late last night, a Syrian government airbase in Latakia was destroyed in a missile attack of unknown national origin launched from the Mediterranean. The airbase housed Russian surface to air missiles and a radar center. Also yesterday, President Assad’s forces launched a “Starvation Until Submission Campaign,” tightening blockades around Damascus neighborhoods and preventing the flow of food, medicine, and people in a purported effort to starve out rebel forces. Aid organizations and local medical staff have already reported an increase in water-borne illnesses and cases of severe malnutrition. The WHO reported a polio outbreak in Syria after ten cases of the disease were confirmed. Despite largely being eradicated in Syria since 1999, the easily communicable disease has undergone a recent resurgence as inoculation rates among children and general health and cleanliness standards for food and water have declined as a result of the civil war. Assad met with UN-Arab League Envoy Lakhdar Brahimi yesterday to discuss possible negotiations with Syria’s opposition in Geneva later next month. Assad said that any negotiated solution would be predicated on an immediate end to foreign intervention and support for the opposition. Egypt. Police raided al-Azhar University yesterday, firing tear gas at students following protests in which students stormed and vandalized administrative buildings. The protests were sparked in part by yesterday’s arrest of Essam el-Errian, one of the last remaining senior members of Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood. On Tuesday, three judges presiding over the trial of Mohammed Badie, the Muslim Brotherhood’s supreme guide, stepped down citing “reasons of conscience,” bringing the trial to an unexpected halt. Meanwhile, the military raided multiple sites in northern Sinai on Tuesday, arresting fifty-four militants as well as the confiscation of a cache of weapons and explosives. On Monday, Egypt’s Interior Ministry announced that it had arrested twenty-seven assailants responsible for the Warraq Church Iraq. Iraqi prime minister Nouri al-Maliki is slated to meet President Obama at the White House tomorrow to discuss the rising tide of violence across Iraq. In advance of the meeting, a bipartisan group of U.S. senators sharply criticized al-Maliki’s leadership in a letter to the president alleging that “Prime Minister Maliki’s mismanagement of Iraqi politics is contributing to the recent surge of violence.” The Senators also expressed concerns about the spillover effects of Syria’s civil war, the marginalization of the Sunni minority in Iraq, and the potential for civil war in Iraq. The expressions of concern come amidst daily car and suicide bombs in Iraq that killed more than thirty people this week. The United Nations estimates that seven thousand Iraqi civilians have been killed this year alone. U.S. Foreign Policy New Middle East Strategy. The New York Times reported on Sunday that National Security Adviser Susan Rice led a White House Middle East policy review this summer to reassess the nature of U.S. commitments in the Middle East. The review process, which did not include either the secretary of state or secretary of defense, reportedly redefined the administration’s goal as preventing the Middle East from overwhelming the president’s second term agenda. Notably absent from the administration’s new priorities is Egypt; the review also marks the administration’s abandonment of Middle East democracy promotion, as spelled out by the president in his May 19, 2011, major address on the Arab uprisings at the State Department. Instead, U.S. priorities reportedly now center on negotiating a nuclear agreement with Iran, brokering peace between Israelis and the Palestinians, and “mitigating strife in Syria.” Kerry to the Region. The State Department announced today that Secretary of State John Kerry will be traveling to the Middle East from November 3-11. Secretary Kerry will visit Riyadh, Jerusalem, Bethlehem, Amman, Abu Dhabi, Algiers, and Rabat to discuss a range of issues, including Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons, Saudi ire with Washington, and final status negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians. Egypt. A number of members of the House Foreign Affairs Committee called on Tuesday for a re-evaluation of the Obama administration’s recent aid cuts to Egypt. Representative Eliot Engel expressed concerns that the recent decision to halt shipments of advanced military equipment, such as the F-16 and Apache Helicopters, has only harmed relations with a long-term ally. Assistant Secretary of Defense Derek Chollet told the committee this week that the United States wants “to see Egypt succeed in moving toward an inclusive, democratically-elected civilian government.” Acting Assistant Secretary of State Beth Jones told the same committee that the reduced aid package has not impeded the ability of the Egyptian military to secure its borders or combat domestic militants but instead made a strong U.S. statement admonishing the overthrow of the democratically elected Mohamed Morsi and the ensuing crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood. While We Were Looking Elsewhere. Lebanon. President Michel Sleiman announced that calm had been restored to Tripoli yesterday following Tuesday’s army deployment there to quell weeklong clashes between pro and anti-Syrian factions that left sixteen dead and more than eighty wounded. On Monday, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah accused Saudi Arabia of working to derail the Geneva II talks between the Syrian opposition and the Assad regime. Nasrallah claimed that there is no chance for a battlefield victory, and argued instead that a negotiated political solution is the only route to peace. Iran. Nuclear chief Ali Akbar Salehi refuted claims yesterday that Iran had temporarily halted twenty percent uranium enrichment. Sanctions and technical experts began meetings yesterday to prepare for next week’s nuclear negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 in Vienna. On Monday, Iranian deputy foreign minister Abbas Araqchi met with International Atomic Energy Association director general Yukiya Amano and offered suggestions for breaking the impasse between the UN nuclear watchdog and the isolated Islamic Republic. Tunisia. Security forces arrested five suspects last night following a suicide bombing at a Tunisian resort that coincided with several other attempted bombings yesterday. Authorities announced that the men being held were tied to Ansar al-Sharia, an increasingly active Salafist group operating in Tunisia. On Monday, twenty-one party leaders continued talks that began last week aimed at transitioning power from the ruling Ennahda party, setting new elections, and revising the constitution. According to Rashid Ghannouchi, chairman of Ennahda, “the train out of this crisis is on the tracks, and we are now on the way to finishing our transition to elections.” Israel. The Israeli government yesterday released twenty-six Palestinian prisoners convicted of killing Israelis, the second group of one hundred and four prisoners set to be released by the Netanyahu government as a good will gesture to Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas. Israel, however, drew international criticism for simultaneously announcing plans for an additional fifteen hundred homes in areas of East Jerusalem occupied in the 1967 war. On Monday, two rockets were launched from the Gaza Strip into Israel; one was intercepted by the Iron Dome missile defense system and the other landed in an uninhabited area with no injuries. In response, the Israeli military destroyed two launch sites in Gaza. This Week in History. This week marks the ninetieth anniversary of the establishment of the Republic of Turkey, following more than six hundred years of Ottoman rule. Defeat by the Allied powers in World War I dealt a fatal blow to the “Sick Man of Europe,” reducing the Ottoman Empire to a small state in Anatolia with the Treaty of Sevres in 1920. Unwilling to capitulate to Allied will, Turkish nationalists fought to depose the Sultan and forge a new, more favorable agreement which came with the 1923 Treaty of Lausanne. The election of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, a hero of both World War I and the resistance, as the first president brought about drastic social, political and religious changes in Turkey. The fez was banned, Latin script replaced Arabic, and by 1928, Turkey had officially gone from Caliphate to secular Republic. Ataturk moved quickly to repress opposition and consolidate power and won re-election in 1927, 1931 and 1935 until his death in 1938.
  • United States
    This Week: Saudi Pique, Syrian Politics, and Egyptian Paralysis
    Significant Developments Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia’s intelligence chief, Bandar Bin Sultan, said on Tuesday that the kingdom will be making a “major shift” away from its close relationship with the United States. Bandar reportedly accused the United States of failing to act effectively on Syria, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, of growing closer to Tehran, and of failing to back the crushing of Bahrain’s an anti-government revolt in 2011. Following a Paris meeting between Secretary of State John Kerry and Saudi foreign minister Saud al-Faisal, U.S. officials said that while the two countries have similar goals in the region, they disagree on the appropriate methods for achieving them. Meanwhile on Monday, several GCC states and Egypt praised Saudi Arabia’s decision to decline a two year non-permanent membership on the United Nations Security Council. Saudi Arabia is the first country to flat out reject a Security Council seat, citing the inability of the United Nations to bring a peaceful end to the conflict in Syria as a principal motivator in its decision. Syria. The Friends of Syria group met in London on Tuesday to discuss possible peace talks and agreed that Bashar Assad can have no rule in any future Syrian government. Participants urged the opposition to attend the talks, but Syrian Opposition Coalition president Ahmad al-Jarba said, “We cannot take part if it allows Assad to gain more time to spill the blood of our people while the world looks on.” The Syrian opposition is set to meet on November 9 in Istanbul to decide whether they will attend the Geneva II talks that are slated for a yet to be specified date sometime in November. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights announced today that the Assad government had released some sixty-four female prisoners. The release was part of a three-way negotiation brokered by the Palestinian Authority and Qatar that has also freed nine Lebanese Shiites held by Syrian rebels as well as two Turkish Airlines pilots held in Lebanon. A total of 128 female prisoners are expected to be released by the Syrian government. Meanwhile, rebels yesterday fired on a gas pipeline, near the Damascus airport, that supplied fuel to a power station causing a nationwide blackout on Wednesday. Egypt. Amr Moussa, head of Egypt’s fifty-member constitution amendment committee met with interim president Adly Mansour yesterday to discuss proposed amendments to the constitution. Moussa has denied allegations that he was being pressured to grant Defense Minister Abdel Fattah al-Sisi immunity, saying, “The word ‘pressure’ is misleading. There is, rather, what we call lobbying.” Other members of the committee, however, accused Moussa of dictatorial practices and of barring reserve members from meetings. Meanwhile, supporters of ousted President Mohammed Morsi called for mass protests on November 4 to mark the beginning of his trial. Throughout the week, security forces clashed with student groups at al-Azhar in Cairo and campuses across the country demanding the reinstatement of Morsi. Violence also continued across the Sinai where several police officers were killed on Wednesday and Thursday. A fifth victim of Monday’s Warraq Coptic church shooting, in which gunmen opened fire on a wedding, passed away yesterday at a Cairo hospital. The brazen attack raised questions about the military’s ability and willingness to protect Egypt’s minorities. Egyptian officials announced Monday that the criminal trial of former president Hosni Mubarak has been postponed until November 16. U.S. Foreign Policy Israel-Palestine. Secretary of State John Kerry and Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu met in Rome on Wednesday for seven hours to discuss the Iranian nuclear program and Israeli peace talks with the Palestinians. Prime Minister Netanyahu told reporters at the beginning of his meeting with Kerry that the two officials speak nearly every other day about the peace process. On Monday, Secretary Kerry said that Israeli-Palestinian talks have “intensified” and that “all the core issues are on the table.” Speaking at the Arab Peace Initiative Follow-up meeting on Monday in Paris, Secretary Kerry lauded the participants’ “commitment to peace.” Kerry also announced a $150 million pledge for Palestinian debt relief from the government of Qatar, and expressed hope that other Arab governments would follow suit though while stressing the need for progress on the political track. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Tunisia. The offices of Tunisia’s ruling Islamist Ennahda party were burned on Thursday in the town of Kef while the country observed a day of mourning for six police officers slain by Islamist militants on Wednesday. Secular opposition parties called for the immediate resignation of the Ennahda-led government and protested in the capital citing the current government’s inability to bolster the economy or combat extremism. Prime Minister Ali Larayedh voiced his commitment to Tunisia’s proposed political roadmap which includes his party’s resignation but opposition members termed his statements as “ambiguous.” A national dialogue that would lead to the resignation of the current government, the adoption of a new constitution, new electoral laws and set new elections was expected to commence on Wednesday but was delayed. The country has been in a state of political gridlock since the assassination of parliamentarian Mohamed Brahmi on July 25. Yemen. Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula warned Yemeni officials today that any punitive action against participants in a recent prison uprising would meet a violent response. Yemeni security forces regained full control of the prison in Sana’a yesterday after a three day standoff with prisoners, following an attempted jailbreak by three hundred al-Qaeda affiliates. The prisoners attacked guards and attempted to overtake the prison on Tuesday but were repelled by security officers at the prison’s second security perimeter. Citing the growing instability in Yemen, Prince Turki bin Faisal announced on Tuesday that Saudi aid would be “on hold, until the country settles down.” Bahrain. On Wednesday, Bahraini police announced that a young man had been found dead in the predominately Shi’ite village of Bani Jamra. He was killed when a bomb he was transporting prematurely detonated. He was believed to be connected with the ongoing uprising against the government that began in March 2011. Jordan. Human Rights Watch has called upon the UN Human Rights Council to pressure Jordan to reform parts of its penal code that “limit rights to free expression, assembly, and association.” Under the oft-cited 1961 Penal Code defendants can still be charged with “lengthening of the tongue,” a broad category of offenses including insulting the royal family. Iraq. Another wave of violence swept across Iraq this week with attacks on Wednesday killing more than a dozen people and prompting Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to warn that the country faced a “war of genocide” from terrorist groups. Maliki expressed hope in the growing number of anti-al-Qaeda militias operating in the country. Other attacks late on Tuesday killed twenty-eight people, many of them members of the security forces. On Monday, gunmen and suicide bombers attacked a number of government buildings and police posts in Fallujah, killing two police officers and wounding four more. This Week in History This week marks the thirtieth anniversary of the bombings in Beirut that killed 299 American and French servicemen. On October 23, 1983, a suicide bomber drove a truck containing the equivalent of more than twelve thousand pounds of TNT into the U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut and another into the barracks of French Paratroopers. Massive explosions killed 220 U.S. Marines, 21 U.S. servicemen, and 58 French Paratroopers. A multinational peacekeeping force had been sent to Lebanon the previous year to oversee the withdrawal of PLO fighters after the Israeli invasion of Lebanon and siege of Beirut. Though initially seen as impartial, the U.S. forces came to be perceived as tilted towards the Christian government, with violent attacks coming from a number of Lebanese militias. In April of 1983, a truck bomb was driven into the U.S. Embassy in Beirut killing dozens. Attacks against peacekeeping forces increased and came to a head with the Marine Corps barracks bombings. The subsequent chaos and violence resulted in the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Lebanon on February 26, 1984. In 2003, a U.S. federal judge ruled that the Lebanese militia, Hezbollah, was responsible for the attacks and been assisted by Iran.
  • Iran
    Weekend Reading: Cairo’s Communities, Israel and Iran, and Aid to Egypt
    Tadamun  takes a look at one of the oldest urban communities in Cairo’s Giza governorate, Mit ’Uqba. Jonathan Tobin says that the answer to the question of whether Israel will strike Iran is not to be found in historical precedent. Mohamed el Dahshan claims that whatever suspending U.S. aid to Egypt was supposed to achieve, it has failed.
  • United States
    This Week: Iran Negotiations, Syria Pre-Negotiations, and Egypt Moots Legislation
    Significant Developments Iran. Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and EU negotiator Catherine Ashton issued a joint statement yesterday, following talks between the P5+1 countries and Iran, announcing that further talks would continue on November 7 in Geneva.  Zarif presented a new Iranian proposal this week which deputy foreign minister Abbas Araqachi claimed allows for Iran possibly accepting the NPT’s additional protocol permitting surprise inspections by the International Atomic Energy Association. While Iran has yet to agree to suspend its nuclear program—a requirement for the United States to lift crippling sanctions—White House spokesperson Jay Carney said that the Iranian proposal “represents a level of seriousness and substance we have not seen before.” Araqachi voiced disappointment on Sunday that the talks had not moved to the level of foreign minister, a reference to U.S. secretary of state John Kerry’s absence from this week’s negotiations. Syria. Speaking from Moscow today, Syrian deputy prime minister Qadri Jamil announced that the proposed Geneva II talks will take place November 23-24. Russia’s foreign ministry spokesperson Alexander Lukashevich responded within hours, saying that, “We shouldn’t get ahead of ourselves.” On Sunday, George Sabra, the president of the Syrian National Council (SNC), the largest bloc within the Syrian Opposition Coalition, announced that SNC would not attend the Geneva conference and would not participate in negotiations until Bashar al-Assad’s regime falls. Sabra confirmed that the SNC would not stay in the coalition if it participates in Geneva. Meanwhile, a video released by Syrian rebels on Wednesday announced that a total of seventy groups have now withdrawn their support from the opposition coalition. The opposition has grown increasingly fractured in recent months as the exile leadership has experienced difficulties procuring weapons and aid. A spokesperson for the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) announced today that eleven out of twenty sites declared by the Syrian government had been verified and that weapons and equipment at six of them had been destroyed. However, a series of car bombs and mortar attacks in the areas surrounding the inspectors’ hotel has raised concerns about the safety of the mission. In an unrelated attack today, rebel forces killed Major General Jamaa Jamaa, the provincial head of intelligence in Deir Ezzor. Jamaa was a top Syrian official in Lebanon during the Syrian occupation who had been questioned over the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Harriri. Egypt. Egypt’s interim president, Adly Mansour, drew criticism on Wednesday over a new law under consideration that would severely limit the size, location, and duration of any protest in the country. The Muslim Brotherhood has called for renewed protests against the military following Friday prayers. The military continues to face a creeping insurgency in Sinai where troops were moved on Sunday following intelligence reports that recently discovered tunnels would be used to carry out attacks. Meanwhile, the family of deposed President Mohammed Morsi said Sunday that he will not enter any negotiations or make any concessions. U.S. Foreign Policy UAE-Saudi Arabia. The Pentagon announced yesterday that it is preparing to sell $10.8 billion of military hardware to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The sale includes one thousand “bunker buster” bombs to Saudi Arabia and five thousand to the UAE. The Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) released two statements yesterday detailing the deals, noting that Saudi Arabia has requested $6.8 billion in munitions and equipment and the UAE has requested $4 billion worth of military hardware. The DSCA noted that, “the UAE continues host-nation support of vital US forces stationed at Al Dhafra Air Base and plays a vital role in supporting US regional interests...This proposed sale will improve the UAE’s military readiness and capabilities to meet current and future regional threats, reduce the dependence on U.S. forces in the region, and enhance any coalition operations the United States may undertake.” Egypt. Egyptian Foreign Minister Nabil Fahmy said Wednesday that the U.S.-Egyptian relationship is in a state of “turmoil.” Fahmy’s remarks followed last week’s decision by the United States to drawdown military aid to Egypt in response to the violent repression of the Muslim Brotherhood. While We Were Looking Elsewhere: Israel. In a speech to the Knesset Tuesday afternoon, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that it would be a “historic mistake” to take pressure off of Iran now and said Israel would not rule out a preventative strike. On Tuesday, the Israeli security cabinet issued a statement calling for continued sanctions against Iran given the advanced stages of their nuclear program, despite the talks in Geneva. Also on Tuesday, Israeli military officials discovered and destroyed another tunnel connecting the Gaza strip and Israel. It follows Sunday’s finding of a lengthy one mile underground tunnel connecting Gaza to a Kibbutz in Israeli. A spokesman for the Israeli military claimed the tunnels could be used to carry out attacks in Israel; government officials announced Israel would suspend the shipment of construction materials to the private sector in Gaza. Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia was elected today to its first ever two-year term on the United Nations Security Council. Abdullah al-Muallimi, the Saudi ambassador to the UN, said that, “Our election today is a reflection of a long standing policy in support of moderation and in support of resolving disputes through peaceful means.” Saudi Arabia, and the four other new members, will assume its seat on January 1. Lebanon. A car bomb containing fifty kilograms of explosives was discovered and successfully disarmed by Lebanese authorities in a southern suburb of Beirut on Tuesday. Recent attacks against pro-Hezbollah areas of Lebanon have drawn increasing concern about spillover from the conflict in Syria. On Monday, videos were released of two Turkish Airlines pilots who have been held hostage in Lebanon since August; both appeared to be in good health. They are being held by a group known as Zuwwar al-Imam Ali al-Reda, which is demanding the release of nine Shiite pilgrims being held in Syria. Iraq. Government officials announced Thursday that Iraq will begin receiving military aid from Russia as part of recently revived $4.3 billion arms deal that was scuttled last year amid corruption allegations. Meanwhile, a new study released this week estimates that approximately 461,000 Iraqis have died as a result of Iraq’s war. The casualty count includes not only battle related deaths, but the ensuing insurgency and “avoidable deaths,” such as those caused by collapsing infrastructure. Attacks on Thursday and Tuesday left more than 60 people dead and dozens more wounded across the country. Turkey. The European Commission called on Wednesday for renewed debate on Turkey’s long-stalled membership request. While issues have been raised regarding Cyprus and government crackdowns on protestors, EU governments will discuss the commission’s report on October 22 and could begin talks with Turkey as early as November. For the first time, on Tuesday, the Turkish military specifically targeted jihadist sites in Syria with artillery in response to a mortar attack by the al-Qaeda group, Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). This Week in History This week marks the fortieth anniversary of the 1973 oil embargo by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). In response to the United States’ massive airlift of military equipment to Israel during the Yom Kippur/October War, OPEC imposed an embargo on shipments of oil to the United States and all countries that had supported Israel. Prices rose by 70 percent initially, though they eventually rose by an additional 130 percent with the price of oil per barrel going from $3 to $12. The ensuing years of U.S. stagflation and the fear of dependence on foreign oil brought about radical changes in U.S. energy policy, fuel efficiency standards, and touched off a wave of expanded oil exploration the world over. In March 1974, OPEC lifted the embargo that greatly enriched a number of gulf countries.
  • United States
    Turkey: Spies Like Us
    I co-authored this piece with my friend and colleague, Michael Koplow, author of the blog Ottomans and Zionists. Ehud Barak’s political instincts have never been great, but his security instincts are generally top-notch. So when he warned in 2010 that any intelligence information shared with Turkey might be passed on to Iran, his fears may not have been completely unfounded. David Ignatius reported yesterday that in 2012, Turkey deliberately blew the cover of ten Iranians who were working as Israeli agents and exposed their identities to the Iranian government. Ignatius also wrote that in the wake of the incident, which was obviously a large intelligence setback for efforts to halt Iran’s nuclear program, the United States did not protest directly to Turkey and instead walled off intelligence issues from broader policymaking. There are lots of questions that Ignatius’s report raises, and it will take some time to parse them out and figure out the answers. First and foremost is the report completely accurate? This is a very big deal if true, and it casts increasingly cool U.S. behavior toward Turkey over the past year in a more interesting light, yet it also makes it puzzling to figure out how something like this was kept quiet. Likewise, it is tough to see how and why the United States would separate intelligence issues from larger policy issues in the wake of such a huge betrayal of an important U.S. intelligence ally. Especially when such duplicity amounts to a purposeful blow to joint American-Israeli aims to slow down Iran’s nuclear program. Next, who are the sources for this story, and why leak the story now? If this new information came from the United States, then it indicates that someone has finally had it with Turkey turning a blind eye to (if not actively enabling) a growing al Qaeda presence in Syria, and anger over Turkey’s deal to buy a missile defense system from a Chinese firm already under sanctions rather than from NATO. The flip side to this is that if it is a U.S. government source fed up with Turkish behavior, it also does not cast the United States in a great light given the lack of an official reaction following Turkey’s exposure of Israeli intelligence assets. If the leak came from the Israeli side, then the timing is strange since there would have been little reason to hold this information until now, as Israeli-Turkish relations were at their absolute low point. The only plausible reason for Israel to leak this now would be if it came from someone who is disenchanted with Bibi Netanyahu’s efforts to patch things up with Turkey, as these allegations are deeply embarrassing in light of the Mavi Marmara apology. Questions aside, and assuming that the veracity of the report– and so far no American or Israeli official has publicly denied it – the bigger picture here is not the future of Israel-Turkey ties, but how the United States views Turkey. It is important to remember that from its earliest days the Obama administration sought to rebuild and strengthen ties with Ankara during a particularly difficult period that coincided with the American occupation of Iraq and the return of PKK terrorism. The Turks got a presidential visit and speech to the Grand National Assembly, Obama punted on his promise to recognize the Armenian genocide, and more broadly brought a new energy and urgency to a partnership that American officials hoped would work to achieve common goals in a swath of the globe from the Balkans to Central Asia. What started off well-enough quickly ran into trouble. By the spring of 2010, the Turks had negotiated a separate nuclear deal with Iran (and the Brazilians) that the administration claimed it had not authorized and voted against additional UN Security Council sanctions on Tehran.  Then the Mavi Marmara incident happened, further complicating Washington’s relations with both Ankara and Jerusalem.  A “reset” of sorts occurred on the sidelines of the September 2010 G-20 summit in Toronto with a meeting in which President Obama and Prime Minister Erdogan talked tough with each other and cleared the air, setting the stage for what Turkish officials like to describe as a “golden age” in relations.  Even so, despite the apparent mutual respect—even friendship—between President Obama and Prime Minister Erdogan, there was a sense that the Turks did not share interests and goals as much as advertised.  For example, there was Erdogan’s visit to Tehran in June 2010 when he implicitly justified Iran’s nuclear program. There were also difficult negotiations over a NATO early warning radar system on Turkish territory and after Ankara finally agreed, last minute needless wrangling over Israeli access to the data from the system . More recently, Turkey has spurned its NATO allies in order to build a missile defense system with China.  Ankara has also been enormously unhelpful on Syria, even working at cross-purposes against current U.S. aims.  The Turks have complicated efforts to solve the political crisis in Egypt by insisting that deposed President Mohammed Morsi be returned to office and thus only further destabilizing Egyptian politics.  In addition, these new revelations (along with ongoing efforts to get around sanctions on Iranian oil and gas) make it clear that Turkey has been actively assisting Iran in flouting American attempts to set back Iran’s nuclear capabilities. The state-owned Halk Bank was, until recently, involved in clearing financial transactions for Iranian counterparts, though Istanbul’s gold traders continue to do a robust business with Iran. And this all comes on top of the general fallout that has ensued as a result of Turkey doing everything in its power to take shots at Israel (which, no matter if some Turkish analysts want to argue that Ankara is more strategically valuable to the U.S. than Jerusalem, is a critical U.S. ally), whether it be absurdly blaming Israel for the coup in Egypt or preventing Israel from participating in NATO forums. Considering Turkey’s record, how can the Obama administration continue to tout Turkey as a “model partner” or even treat it as an ally? Not a single one of its goals for Turkey—anchoring Turkey in NATO and the West; advancing U.S. national security goals such as non-proliferation, counter-terrorism, and promoting democracy; and holding Turkey out a “model” of a secular democracy—have been met. Ignatius’s recent revelation, if true, undermine the first two goals. As for the third, Erdogan’s continuing harsh crackdown on protesters resulting from last summer’s Gezi Park demonstrations, pressure on journalists, efforts to intimidate civil society organizations, and other efforts to silence critics makes Turkey a negative example for countries struggling to build more just and open societies. We have crossed the line of reasonable disagreement and arrived at a point where Turkey is very clearly and very actively working to subvert American aims in the Middle East on a host of issues. That Erdogan and/or his intelligence chief, Hakan Fidan, were willing to undermine a broad Western effort to stop Iran’s nuclear development for no other reason than to stick it to Israel should be a wake-up call as to whether the current Turkish government can be trusted as a partner on anything.
  • Middle East and North Africa
    Cementing Support for Hamas
    At the end of May 2010, Israel seized control of a ship called the Mavi Marmara as it approached Gaza. It intended to violate Israel’s blockade of Gaza, which is meant to stop weapons from reaching Hamas; the ships carried no humanitarian cargo. Israel stopped the ship, but the incident did Hamas some good: the violence and the publicity increased pressure on Israel to loosen the terms of  the blockade. Already in 2009 Pope Benedict had offered his prayers that the embargo would be lifted so that reconstruction could move faster, and in March 2010 Ban Ki-Moon had said that the Gaza blockade was causing “unacceptable suffering.” On June 1, the day after the ship was seized, Secretary of State Clinton said "the situation in Gaza is unsustainable and unacceptable... Palestinians’ legitimate needs for... regular access for reconstruction materials must... be assured.” She pressed Israeli officials to allow more building materials to enter Gaza, as did British Foreign Secretary William Hague. Former President Carter visited Gaza two weeks later and said the embargo causes "death, destruction, pain and suffering to the people here." The Quartet called “for a lifting of the blockade on Gaza so that crucial reconstruction work can take place….” And this was the trope from virtually every EU government. And so the cement flowed; Israel lifted its ban.  But now it turns out that what was being constructed by Hamas in Gaza was not an economy, not houses or public buildings, but tunnels whose purpose was to permit terrorist attacks into Israel. Most recently, Israel discovered a great project: a tunnel 60 feet deep and 1.5 miles long. Construction appears to have been started two years ago—after cement began to flow into Gaza. As the AP reported, “Concrete walls and arches lined the tunnel and electrical cords could be seen along its walls….The military said it was the third tunnel found along the Gaza border fence in the past year. It estimated that 500 tons of cement and concrete were used, and the structure took more than a year to build.” Hamas has now admitted building the tunnel and claims that its goal was to permit the kidnapping of Israel soldiers, as The Times of Israel reported: The tunnel…was meant to facilitate a complex terror attack involving an assault on soldiers or civilians, with the intention of seizing a captive Israeli and holding him or her as a bargaining chip. Senior Hamas official Moussa Abu Marzouk confirmed as much on Tuesday, two days after Israeli authorities revealed their discovery. “The tunnel which was revealed was extremely costly in terms of money, effort and blood,” Abu Marzouk wrote on his Facebook page. “All of this is meaningless when it comes to freeing our heroic prisoners.” He went on to detail the lucrative nature of the Gilad Shalit deal, in which 1,027 prisoners were released after the Israeli soldier was kidnapped in just such an attack. What’s interesting here is not Hamas acting as Hamas always does: as a terrorist group that is uninterested in the welfare of the people of Gaza. What’s interesting is the number of proponents of lifting the blockade of Gaza who have now admitted error. The number appears to be zero. Not one has acknowledged that allowing construction materials into Gaza allowed Hamas to construct more tunnels, and that Israel may have been right to prevent their arrival. Being a critic of Israel apparently means never having to say you’re sorry.    
  • Middle East and North Africa
    The Mind of Mr. Netanyahu
    Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited Washington last week and spoke at the UN General Assembly in New York. I did not speak with him during this visit. Herewith a guess about what he is thinking.   I’m glad to be home but that was a terrific trip. I liked my speech—wolf in wolf’s clothing, wolf in sheep’s clothing, all that was better this time than the visual from my 2012 speech with that little bomb. Of course I liked that speech too (and nobody even noticed that the bomb drawing was exactly the same one in those Danish cartoons of Mohammed that caused riots!) Speaking at the UN General Assembly is like addressing a mixed crowd—half Nazis and half mummies. But the real audience outside got the point: Iran can’t have nukes, no way, no how. Dunno about Obama. Good meeting, hours long; he treats me better now than before his election, which is weird. The thought struck me that he knows these talks with Iran may fail, and if they do he’s gonna want me to hit Iran. He doesn’t want to do it and he doesn’t want them to get nukes; he has said they can’t so many times that he’d look like an idiot. So in the end he may turn to me, and back me. May. May not. I mean, this Syria thing was bizarre. Even Hillary and John wanted him to do more, in 2012 and this year, and he just won’t do a damn thing. And throwing the decision to Congress without even consulting Biden and Kerry—wow, what an insult to them, with 60 years in the Senate between them! I heard he didn’t even consult Chuck Schumer about whether they had the votes. Jeez. I mean, whatever his staff tells him, he isn’t Albert Einstein. So maybe the guy will never go beyond drones. In which case, I am his escape route. Maybe the Ayatollah will save us all, and reject any deal—no matter how good—with the Great Satan. But I’m scared stiff about these negotiations. Those Persians are smart as hell; if we could team up we’d run the whole Middle East. I hope I live to see the Islamics Republic fall. But does Obama really think Wendy Sherman and John Kerry will outsmart them? Has he read the history of how North Korea hornswaggled the Americans? So the real question is, will he accept some crappy deal? That’s what gives me nightmares. I’ve got nothing to worry about at home. There’s no one like Rabin or Sharon to run against me, and people will back an attack on Iran. The talks with the Palestinians can go on forever, whatever Kerry wants, but Abu Mazen is about as likely to sign a deal now as he himself was in 2008 or Arafat was with Clinton. Thank God the Army is back in charge in Egypt and doing something Mubarak never did—really crushing the Brotherhood. The Americans are suspending aid! Hell, they should be doubling it, as I told Obama. My friend Abdullah in Jordan is OK too; people there realize the world is a tough place and while he may not be his father, life is gonna get a lot worse without him. It isn’t a choice between the King and paradise; it’s a choice between the King and disorder, violence, disaster, the Brotherhood. Obama. Weird guy. Smart, but man, they’re all smart—Bush and Blair and Clinton and Sarko and Putin. He’s no stand-out. His Syria play was bush league. He’s got no one around like a Cheney or Jim Baker, just acolytes. And those negotiations! I’m off to Europe to stiffen the spines of those creeps, though I have to admit the French are really smart; they get it all and are as worried about Obama as I am. Buying a crummy deal with Iran that just gains him three years is his agenda, I think; what happens after he can blame on his successor (“They didn’t get nukes on MY watch!”) That’s why I talked to all those Republicans, hoping they won’t lift sanctions for Obama’s fake deal. What a mess.  Still, they don’t have nukes yet and if I end up striking them I’ll be a hero. Amazing, isn’t it? We’re five million Jews here in this tiny little place. Yet the whole world expects us to handle Iran with its 70 million, and stabilize Jordan, and Sinai, and help with Egypt, and confront Hezbollah. And we may just do it. I’ve never been a religious guy, not really, but it’s hard to resist praying for help and wondering if God is not really in this drama.  
  • United States
    Middle East Matters This Week: Syria’s Negotiations, Egypt’s Violence, and Turkey’s Politics
    Significant Developments Syria. The Assad regime provided documents yesterday about its chemical weapons stockpile in the first day of Damascus meetings with the nineteen member advance team from the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW). The team called the Syrian government’s move “promising,” and said it hopes to begin onsite inspections and dismantling efforts next week. Initial timetables aim to destroy production equipment by November and eliminate stock piles in mid-2014. While President Assad pledged to comply with last week’s UN Resolution in an interview on Sunday, saying that “we don’t have any reservation,” Syrian foreign minister Walid Moallem addressed the UN General Assembly on Monday, claiming that the Syrian regime forces were “the ones who were targeted by poisonous gases in Khan A1-Assal, near Aleppo.” Meanwhile, six powerful rebel brigades in Syria released a statement late Wednesday calling for a cease-fire. The cease-fire proposal comes amidst an armed standoff between two armed opposition groups: the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS)—an affiliate of al-Qaeda operating in Syria—and the Northern Storm Brigade based near the Bab al-Salameh border crossing with Turkey. ISIS has been advancing on the Northern Storm Brigade’s positions at the border crossing, a valuable arms supply route to rebel groups, after pushing them out of Azaz two weeks ago. According to Reuters, Saudi Arabia helped fifty armed opposition groups around Damascus consolidate on Sunday under a new umbrella coalition called the Army of Islam, a move designed to counter the strength of ISIS. Egypt. Unidentified militants fired on a military vehicle outside the Suez Canal city of Ismailiya today, killing two soldiers and wounding an officer. The attack followed a Tuesday bombing in the Sinai Peninsula that left three soldiers dead and an attack on Monday in el-Arish that killed three soldiers. Increasing violence across the country has killed over one thousand people since August. Meanwhile, an Egyptian court announced on Tuesday that it will hear an appeal on October 22 against its recent ban of the Muslim Brotherhood. A delegation of former Egyptian parliamentarians met with EU officials in Belgium earlier this week in an attempt to resolve the growing political crisis in Egypt. While members of the Egyptian delegation condemned the military’s recent crackdown, EU officials pushed for negotiation and acceptance of the interim military government. Turkey. Prime Minister Erdogan told a Turkish broadcaster last night that if his party asked, he would run for president next year in the country’s first popular presidential election. Under the rules of the AK Party, Erdogan cannot run again for prime minister in 2015. The Turkish parliament voted yesterday to extend legislation to send troops into Syria for another year, one day before their mandate was set to expire. The government proposed the extension citing a “serious and imminent” threat posed by the Assad regime’s use of chemical weapons. On Monday, Erdogan announced new initiatives aimed at revitalizing the peace process with Kurdish rebels. Some components of the broad reform package still must be approved by Parliament, but if passed they would lift prohibitions on the use of Kurdish language and lower electoral barriers that limit Kurdish representation. Despite the serious criticism Erdogan has drawn from domestic opponents for being too conciliatory, some Kurdish parties have already rejected the reform package as inadequate. U.S. Foreign Policy Israel-Iran. U.S. secretary of state John Kerry said yesterday that failure to take Iran’s diplomatic overtures seriously would be tantamount to “diplomatic malpractice.” Kerry expressed hope for a deal in as little as six months, but added that “nothing we do is going to be based on trust.” President Obama hosted Israeli prime minister Netanyahu at the White House on Monday, where the two primarily discussed Iran’s nuclear program. In an Oval Office photo spray following their meeting, Obama declared that a military strike was still on the table and that his administration is leaving current sanctions in place. The following day, Netanyahu spoke before the United Nations General Assembly and urged the world not to be fooled by “a wolf in sheep’s clothing.” While We Were Looking Elsewhere Saudi Arabia. Saudi officials cancelled their country’s address scheduled for Tuesday before the United Nations General Assembly. Declining to even issue a written statement, Saudi diplomats gave no explanation for the dramatic move. However, press reports indicated that the Saudis were upset both about the international reaction to the war in Syria as well as the potential warming of relations between Iran and the West. Lebanon. Caretaker interior minister Marwan Charbel met with top security officials on Tuesday to draw up a security plan for Tripoli after Hezbollah ceded control of checkpoints to the national security forces. Charbel declared that “there are no more Hezbollah checkpoints on Lebanese territory.” Hezbollah handed over civilian-manned over security checkpoints in Baalbek and Nabatieh to the Lebanese military following clashes on Saturday that left four dead. The increased security measures come in the wake of several bombings in predominately Hezbollah areas aimed at forcing the group to withdraw its forces from Syria and support for the embattled al-Assad regime. Libya. Russia evacuated its embassy in Tripoli on Thursday following an attack the previous day. While no Russian personnel were injured, two attackers were killed by security forces. According to a statement by the Russian Foreign Ministry, the attack was carried out by friends and family of a Libyan pilot recently murdered by a Russian citizen. In an unrelated attack, gunmen assassinated a Libyan colonel in Benghazi on Wednesday, the second shooting in the eastern city in recent days. Iraq. A wave of bombings left as many as fifty-five people dead in Iraq on Monday in an ever escalating spate of sectarian violence. Recent figures from the United Nations show that 979 people were killed in Iraq last month alone and approximately five thousand since April of this year.  While the semi-autonomous Kurdish north has largely avoided the violence of recent years, bombings on Sunday evening in the capital of Erbil have led to questions about the stability of Iraq and spillover from the crisis in Syria. Bahrain. A Bahraini court sentenced four Shiites to life imprisonment on Thursday for detonating a roadside bomb that targeted a police officer. The move comes amidst an ongoing crackdown against the February 14th Movement in Bahrain. Ninety-one other Shiites have been given jail terms this week of up to fifteen years for crimes including detonating bombs, “terrorist crimes,” and forming a “clandestine opposition group.” The Sunni monarchy has faced increased opposition from its Shiite majority since the beginning of the Arab Spring. Yemen. Alleged al-Qaeda militants disguised as soldiers attacked a military compound in al-Mukalla on Monday, taking control of the facility and an undetermined number of soldiers. This brazen attack comes in the wake of a recent surge in violence in Yemen as the government faces a serious challenge from domestic terrorist and separatist movements. Jordan. A Jordanian official announced on Tuesday that three men were recently arrested after displaying posters voicing their support for the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and the recently deposed president, Mohammed Morsi. The three suspects were charged with “acts the government does not approve that would harm Jordan’s relations with a brotherly Arab country,” according to a Jordanian judicial official. This Week In History This week marks the forty-third anniversary of Egyptian president Gamal Abdel Nasser’s funeral in Cairo. Nasser passed away on September 28, 1970,shortly after returning from Jordan where he had helped mediate an end to fighting between Jordanian forces and Palestinian militants. Nasser played a leading role in the Free Officer Movement that deposed King Farouk in 1952. After seizing power two years later, he enacted a broad domestic agenda focused on land redistribution, the nationalization of a large number of industries, as well as the Suez Canal and, the termination of British influence in Egypt. Internationally, Nasser became a lead figure in the non-aligned movement and attempted to unite Egypt and Syria in the ultimately failed United Arab Republic. His funeral was marked by millions of Egyptians pouring into the streets to pay their respects for the first native Egyptian leader in nearly two millennia.
  • Israel
    Israel’s New Mideast Pressures
    Amid diplomatic challenges on Iran and Syria, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu could face conservative opposition at home for progress on peace with Palestinians, says CFR’s Robert Danin.
  • Iran
    Is Israel the "Bad Cop" on Iran?
    Prime Minister Netanyahu’s speech at the UN put forth Israel’s view of Iran, but Israel is in a tough position. As I write in Foreign Affairs today, Israelis "do not wish to play the bad cop role in an American game with Iran -- and, in fact, the metaphor is misleading. In the good cop/bad cop routine, both officers are on the same team and are carefully coordinating their approaches. In this case, the Israelis fear, the bad cop wants to see the criminals jailed, and the good cop is open to a sweet plea bargain. If that’s what the Iranians get, they will sit back and smile while the United States and Israel end up in a bitter argument." The full text appears at the Foreign Affairs web site, here.  
  • United States
    This Week: Syria, Iran, and Israeli-Palestinian Diplomacy; Violence in Egypt
    Syria. Diplomats in New York appeared stymied in their efforts to craft a new United Nations Security resolution calling for the removal of Syria’s chemical weapons arsenal. The Security Council began discussing a resolution on Tuesday to support last weekend’s U.S.-Russia deal that called for Syria to account for its chemical weapons within one week and for the destruction of its entire arsenal by mid-2014; members are divided over whether or not to include the threat of sanctions or force. Last Saturday, Secretary of State Kerry said, “We agreed that Syria must submit within a week – not in 30 days, but in one week -- a comprehensive listing.” Yesterday, however, State Department spokeswoman Marie Hard said that, “We’ve never said it was a hard and fast deadline.” Russian president Vladimir Putin reiterated his suggestion today that the chemical weapons use in Syria had been carried out by the opposition, saying, “We have every reason to believe it was a cunning provocation.” Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said on Wednesday that Russia will present evidence to the UN Security Council of chemical weapons use by the Syrian opposition, while one of his deputies called the recently released report from the UN chemical weapons experts “distorted.” Syrian president Bashar al-Assad appeared today in an interview with Fox News and said that Syria could make the chemical weapons sites accessible to international experts “tomorrow,” but that he has heard the process of destroying the weapons will take approximately one year. Egypt. Egyptian security forces engaged in a deadly firefight today with armed supporters of deposed president Mohamed Morsi in Kerdasa, just outside Cairo. Police general Nabil Farrag was shot to death, with his forces arresting at least fifty suspected militants. Egyptian state television announced today that the curfew imposed on August 14 will begin an hour later (midnight) and be lifted and hour earlier (5 am) starting on Saturday. Meanwhile, one of Morsi’s lawyers said yesterday that the ousted president spoke with his family by telephone last week for the first time since he was detained by the Egyptian military in July. U.S. Foreign Policy Iran. White House spokesman Jay Carney said yesterday that President Barack Obama’s confidential letter to Iranian president Hassan Rouhani declared the United States’ readiness to resolve the nuclear dispute with Iran in a way “allows Iran to demonstrate that its nuclear program is for exclusively peaceful purpose.” Obama confirmed the exchange of letters with Iran’s new president, Hassan Rouhani, in an interview with George Stephanopoulos on ABC’s This Week on Sunday. In the same interview, Obama said that Iran should not think that the United States will not strike because it has not struck in Syria, and that the nuclear issue is more significant to the United States than the chemical weapons issue. Both Obama and Rouhani are set to address the UN General Assembly next week in New York, but are not scheduled to meet. Israel. U.S. officials confirmed that President Obama is slated to host Prime Minister Netanyahu at the White House on September 30. The story was first released by Israeli officials. Netanyahu will meet the president before the Israeli leader addresses the United Nations General Assembly. It will be the first meeting between the two leaders since President Obama visited Israel in March. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Yemen. Yemen’s National Dialogue conference, a six-month reconciliation process that was due to give recommendations on a new constitution and voting system today, was instead extended for another two weeks. The delay occurred when two representatives from former president Ali Abdullah Saleh’s party walked out of a meeting, objecting to a proposal to divide the country into a northern and southern province as an attempt to “harm the unity of the homeland.” While delegates have agreed in principle to a federal state, the number of provinces has become a divisive issue; northerners are pushing for several provinces, but southerners only want two provinces. Palestine. A mew Palestinian Authority government headed by Prime Minister Rami Hamdallah was sworn in today in Ramallah by President Abbas. Hamdallah led a caretaker government after he had submitted his own resignation just two weeks into the job last June. Abbas tapped him to head a new government in August, and Hamdallah managed to form a government after five weeks of struggling to do so. After much jockeying over possible appointments, the new government appointed is an exact replica of the previous one. Palestine-Israel. Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat alleged today before a group of diplomats and journalists that Israel seeks to control the Jordan Valley out of economic greed. Erekat dismissed previous statements by Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Israel should have at least a forty-year presence in the Jordan Valley to ensure Israel’s security after a peace agreement is signed. Meanwhile, Yasser Abed Rabbo, a senior aide to Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas, told Voice of Palestine radio that the peace talks with Israel “are futile and won’t lead to any results.” Bahrain. Sheik Ali Salman, secretary general of main opposition group Al Wefaq, met today with Hakon Smedsvig, the first secretary for political affairs at the Norwegian embassy in Manama. The meeting was in contravention of a recent ban on all contact with foreign diplomats. Five opposition groups, including Al Wefaq, announced the suspension of their participation in reconciliation talks on Wednesday. The announcement came a day after the arrest of Khalil Marzooq, a member of Al Wefaq and a former member of parliament. Marzooq faces charges of “inciting acts of terror.” Tunisia. UGTT, Tunisia’s largest labor union, proposed a roadmap for ending the country’s political deadlock on Tuesday. The proposal, published on the union’s website, calls for a national dialogue, the current government to step-down in one month, and a caretaker government to steer the country towards new elections. The National Assembly held its first complete session on Tuesday after a month-long suspension, but fifty-nine opposition members refused to return.  
  • Israel
    While Everyone Else Was Looking at Syria
    Egypt. Interim president Adly Mansour extended the month-long state of emergency for two more months yesterday. A presidential spokesman explained the extension was due to recent “terrorist activities.” Two car bombs hit an Egyptian military intelligence building in Rafah, Sinai on Wednesday, killing at least eleven people, including six soldiers. The attack came four days after the Egyptian military launched a major offensive against Islamist militants in the Sinai Peninsula. Officials describe the operation as the largest sweep of the region in years and report that at least twenty-seven militants have been killed in past six days. Meanwhile, the Egyptian government banned over fifty thousand imams from giving Friday sermons on Monday because they do not have possess the properly accredited preaching licenses. The new restrictions require imams to have licenses from Al Azhar University and are viewed by many as the government’s attempt to rein in imams who support deposed president Mohamed Morsi. A public relations manager for Al Azhar University said that, “If all preachers are Azharis then any radicalism or extremism will be eliminated from mosques and Islamic thought in Egypt will be unified.” Israel-Palestine. U.S. secretary of state John Kerry is set to travel to Jerusalem on Sunday to meet with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Earlier this week, U.S. officials denied the existence of a signed paper guaranteeing peace talks with Israel would start from the 1967 borders; Palestinian official Nabil Shaath told reporters on Monday that Kerry had given such a document to the Palestinian leadership. Kerry met with Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas on Sunday to discuss the talks. Over the weekend, Israeli negotiator Yitzhak Molcho reportedly complained to U.S. envoy Martin Indyk accusing the Palestinians of breaching an agreement not to discuss the content or dates of meetings with the media. Tunisia. Tunisia’s transitional parliament partially resumed activities on Wednesday after a month-long suspension. Mustafa Ben Jafar, president of the parliament, said that full meetings to finish drafting the new constitution will be held next week. The suspension of parliament followed the assassination of Mohamed Brahmi, an opposition member of parliament, in August. Libya. A car bomb exploded outside of a Libyan foreign ministry building in Benghazi Wednesday morning—the one-year anniversary of a deadly attack on the U.S. consulate in the city. No deaths or serious injuries were reported. Referring to the anniversary of the attack that killed four Americans, including Ambassador Chris Stevens, Libyan prime minister Ali Zidan said, “We can’t ignore the date and timing. We can’t forget.” No group has claimed responsibility for the attack. Turkey. Protestors clashed with Turkish security forces in several cities, including Ankara and Istanbul, for the fourth straight day today over the death of twenty-two year-old demonstrator Ahmet Atakan. Atakan died on Monday after he was allegedly hit on the head by a tear gas canister; the Turkish government has denied responsibility and claimed that he fell off a roof. Bahrain. Justice Minister Sheikh Khalid bin Ali Al Khalifa announced on Wednesday the full details of a new law requiring political groups to receive official approval before meeting with foreign governments, diplomats, and international organizations. The law requires groups to contact the Bahraini foreign ministry three days in advance of any such meeting.  
  • Middle East and North Africa
    Israel and the Palestinians: Mr. Sha’ath Strikes Again
    Today’s New York Times carries an interesting story about the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations being fostered by Secretary of State Kerry. Basically, Sha’ath has made a claim that American officials are politely denying: Signs of strain emerged Monday around the nascent Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, as a senior Palestinian official said Secretary of State John Kerry had “guaranteed us in writing” that negotiations would start from the 1967 lines, and American officials suggested he was not telling the truth. Nabil A. Shaath, the Palestinian commissioner for international relations, said the Palestinians had agreed to enter the talks only because of the guarantee. He declined to provide a copy, but when asked if it was signed by Mr. Kerry personally, said: “Absolutely. We wouldn’t have done it without this.” But American officials denied there was such a document, which would have been a significant gesture to the Palestinians and could have enraged Israel. “We have always said that if you don’t hear news about the talks from senior U.S. officials, you can’t count on it being reliable,” Marie E. Harf, a State Department spokeswoman, said in an e-mailed statement. “This is a good example.” This is not the first time that Sha’ath has invented claims about the United States. In 2005, he made several such statements to the BBC: In the BBC film, a former Palestinian foreign minister, Nabil Shaath, says that Mr Bush told a Palestinian delegation in 2003 that God spoke to him and said: "George, go and fight these terrorists in Afghanistan" and also "George, go and end the tyranny in Iraq". This was completely false and invented by Sha’ath, as apparently is the new story about a document signed by Secretary Kerry. In the 2003 case, there was no moment when Sha’ath was alone with Bush; there were always several other people in the conversation, as might have been expected. Sha’ath simply made this all up. For the U.S. and Israel, his renewed role is a sad sign as to the seriousness of Palestinian negotiators.
  • United States
    Middle East Matters This Week: Retaliatory Talk Against Syria, Egypt’s Crackdown Intensifies
    Significant Developments Syria. White House officials plan to brief members of Congress this evening on the situation in Syria after more than one hundred U.S. representatives signed a letter yesterday calling for President Obama to put the use of force against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government to a vote. Meanwhile, Britain and France called for a delay today in taking military action against the Syrian government until the UN inspectors currently on the ground finish their report. UN secretary general Ban Ki-moon said today that the team of chemical weapons inspectors in Syria will conclude their investigations tomorrow and leave the country on Saturday, one day ahead of schedule. In an interview with PBS’ Newshour yesterday, President Obama said that, “We have not yet made a decision...but we do have to make sure that when countries break international norms on chemical weapons that could threaten us, that they are held accountable.” A meeting of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council ended yesterday without taking action on a British resolution authorizing the use of force, due to Russian and Chinese opposition. The Arab League condemned Assad’s government on Tuesday for using chemical weapons but refused to back military action in retaliation. Egypt. Mohammed el-Beltagy, senior Muslim Brotherhood leader and head of the Freedom and Justice Party, was arrested today as supporters of deposed Egyptian president Mohammed Morsi called for renewed protests Friday. More than sixty people connected to the Muslim Brotherhood were detained yesterday by Egyptian security forces in an increasingly widening crackdown on the group. Mohammed Ali Bishr, a senior Muslim Brotherhood figure, reportedly met with representatives of Al Nour party on Wednesday to draft an initiative to the military with solutions to ending the current political crisis. Interim prime minister Hazem al-Beblawi said in a state media interview Tuesday that Egypt should not ban or exclude the Muslim Brotherhood from politics, seemingly backtracking on his proposal two weeks ago to dissolve the group. Meanwhile, a military court in Suez began the trial on Monday of sixty-four members of the Muslim Brotherhood, Jama’a Islamiya, and other supporters of Morsi. They were charged with inciting attacks against churches and security forces. U.S. Foreign Policy Jordan-Syria. Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman General Martin Dempsey co-hosted a two-day meeting of senior army officials from ten countries with Jordan’s chief of staff Meshaal Mohamed al-Zaban in Amman on Monday and Tuesday. The meeting was focused on the regional impact of the war in Syria. Top generals from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, and Canada were in attendance. Egypt. U.S. ambassador Anne Patterson will leave Egypt tomorrow, ending her roughly two-year term in Cairo. Yesterday, Patterson wrote a public letter to Abdel Nasser Salama, the editor in chief of state-owned Al Ahram newspaper, denouncing as “absurd and dangerous” an article in the newspaper that alleged that she was involved in a conspiracy to destabilize Egypt. Patterson further wrote that the U.S. embassy will bring the allegations against her to the “highest levels of the government to protest its publication and the irresponsible behavior that led to it.” David Satterfield will reportedly serve as temporary charge d’affaires until the next ambassador can be confirmed. Patterson was nominated to be the next Assistant Secretary of State for Near East affairs last month. Iran. The State Department released a statement yesterday “respectfully” asking new Iranian president Hassan Rouhani to help release three U.S. citizens who have been held in Tehran for at least one year. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Tunisia. Interior Minister Lotfi Ben Jeddou told a press conference yesterday that Tunisia’s extremist group Ansar al-Shariah is linked to al Qaeda. Tunisian prime minister Ali Larayedh labeled Ansar al-Sharia a terrorist organization on Tuesday, blaming the group for the assassination of two opposition figures and multiple attacks on Tunisian security forces this year. Jordan. Jordan held nation-wide municipal elections Tuesday producing very low turnouts. While the elections were considered free and fair, only 37.3 percent of registered voters participated. The rate was particularly low in Amman, where only 10.5 percent of eligible voters participated. Israel. The Israeli military mobilized a small number of reservists on Wednesday in preparation for the possibility of retaliation against Israel for a potential Western strike on Syria. While Israelis rushed to collect gas masks, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu released a statement urging calm but also stating that, “we are prepared for any scenario.” Libya. Seif al-Islam, the son of former dictator Muammar Qaddafi, and former intelligence chief Abdullah al-Senoussi were charged in a Tripoli court on Tuesday with murder during Libya’s civil war in 2011. Twenty-six former members of Qaddafi’s government were also charged. The trial is set to begin on September 19. Iran. Marzeih Afkham was announced as the first ever female spokesperson for Iran’s foreign ministry today. Previously, Afkham had served as director of the Foreign Ministry’s media and public diplomacy department. Iranian president Rouhani reportedly asked officials to appoint women to high posts in the government. Meanwhile, a new IAEA report released yesterday stated that Iran is slowing its accumulation of uranium refined to 20 percent, while simultaneously expanding its installation of new refining equipment. The report revealed that Iran is set to hold a new round of talks with nuclear inspectors in September. Iraq. More than a dozen coordinated bombs exploded within an hour-long period yesterday in Baghdad. The wave of bombings mostly hit Shiite neighborhoods and killed at least sixty-five people and wounded many more. Meanwhile, Iraq’s Supreme Federal Court overturned a law passed in January that set a two-term limit for the offices of the prime minister, president, and Parliament speaker. Lebanon. President Michael Sleiman appealed to all political forces yesterday to avoid regional conflicts and “reconsider the disassociation policy based on the Baabda Declaration,” after calling for a new government and renewed national dialogue over the weekend. A suspect in the devastating car bombing that struck Tripoli last Friday and killed at least forty-seven reportedly told Lebanese security forces on Tuesday that Syrian intelligence directly planned the attack. West Bank. Protesters and Palestinian security forces clashed on Wednesday in Ramallah as police broke up a small demonstration against the resumption of peace talks with Israel. Ma’an reported on Tuesday that Israeli and Palestinian negotiators met in Jericho on Monday, despite an announcement by Palestinian officials that a planned round of talks had been cancelled after Israeli security personnel killed three Palestinians earlier in the day. The two negotiating teams reportedly met at the home of Saeb Erekat, the chief Palestinian negotiator.