Israel | Council on Foreign Relations

Are Israel and Iran Headed for All-Out War?

The killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and targeted assassination of a Hezbollah military official in Beirut bring Israel and Iran, through its proxies, closer to war.

Expert Brief by Steven A. Cook Jul 31, 2024

What Is Hamas?

The Palestinian militant group struggled to govern the Gaza Strip before launching a surprise attack on Israel in 2023. Now facing Israel’s military campaign to destroy it, Hamas’s future is in doubt, as is Gaza’s.

Backgrounder by Kali Robinson Oct 17, 2024

How Much of a Threat Does Hamas Still Pose to Israel?

Israel has made eliminating the threat from the Gaza-based militant group a central war aim, but it’s not entirely clear at what point that condition will be met.

Expert Brief by Bruce Hoffman Jun 14, 2024

Why Israel Wants to Draft the Ultra-Orthodox Into the Military

As Israel fights its war in the Gaza Strip, changes to a decades-old draft exemption for its fastest-growing demographic group threaten to fracture Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition and exacerbate the country’s internal rifts.

In Brief by Simone Lipkind Jul 31, 2024

U.S. Aid to Israel in Four Charts

Israel has long been the leading recipient of U.S. foreign aid, including military assistance. That aid has come under heightened scrutiny amid Israel’s conflicts with Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran.

Article by Jonathan Masters and Will Merrow Nov 13, 2024

Middle East and North Africa

Mere State-Building in Palestine

How can a Palestinian state be built? For those who believe that the "two-state outcome" is important, and this includes the governments of Europe and the United States, that’s a critical question. Former prime minister Salam Fayyad had an answer: start building, now, under the Israeli occupation, despite the occupation, against the occupation. Get ready for independence step by step. We now have an important European view, from the foreign minister of Norway--which chairs the Ad Hoc Liaison Committee, the key donors’ organization for the Palestinian efforts. Espen Barth Eide is quoted as follows in the Jerusalem Post: “The donors will not be ready to keep funding Palestinian state-building much longer if we are not seeing a political horizon,” said Eide. Eide said it was important for both sides to know – as they have just restarted negotiations – that the world was not willing to provide a blank check. “I think this is important for the Palestinians to know, because if anyone there thought they could sort of just fall back to the comfort of an internationally subsidized state-building endeavor, that may be wrong,” he said in an interview. “And I think that it is important for some people on the Israeli side – living in reasonable comfort [given] that cooperation with the pseudo-state in the West Bank is quite good – to know that this cannot continue forever.” That is an extraordinary statement, and should not pass without notice. What he derides as "falling back into the comfort of an internationally subsidized state-building effort" is in fact the greatest challenge facing Palestinians now, and one they have not met. Nor have donors-- Arab, American, European-- met the challenge of providing adequate political and financial support for state-building, focusing instead for decades on repeated failed efforts at leaping to final status agreements. Those efforts have produced little for Palestinians, while state-building efforts can offer them pragmatic gains and real improvement in their lives--and can show Israelis that their security needs can be met in an independent Palestine. Put another way, Eide continues the failed policy of wanting to create a Palestine whose borders might be known-- before we have any idea what will be within those borders: failed state or successful economy? Democracy or terrorist base? This has not worked and will never work. To find that the chairman of the donors’ committee now dismisses mere state-building as an activity not worth supporting in its own right suggests that nothing has been learned from the experience of recent decades.

Blog Post by Elliott Abrams August 28, 2013 Pressure Points
United States

Middle East Matters This Week: Alleged Syrian Chemical Weapons Use, Mubarak Leaves Prison in Egypt

Significant Developments Syria. French foreign minister Laurent Fabius called today for a forceful international response to reports that the Syrian regime used chemical weapons outside Damascus yesterday. However, Fabius added that “there is no question of sending troops on the ground.” The UN Security Council held an emergency session yesterday and issued a statement calling for a prompt investigation into the alleged use of chemical weapons; however the UN team of chemical weapons inspectors that is currently in Damascus does not have permission from the Syrian government to investigate the site of yesterday’s attack. Syria’s opposition claims the government is responsible for the chemical weapons attack, but the Assad regime denies any involvement. Hundreds, and possibly thousands, of men, women, and children were killed in Wednesday’s attack. Meanwhile, clashes between Kurdish militias and al Qaeda-linked rebel groups in the northern provinces of Syria have escalated in the past week in what threatens to become a new war. Elsewhere, regime troops retook large swathes of President Bashar al-Assad’s home province of Latakia on Monday. Egypt. Former Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak was released from prison today and transported by helicopter to Maadi Military hospital. The move followed an appeals court ruling yesterday that Mubarak had been held the maximum number of days pre-verdict. Interim prime minister Hazem al-Beblawi ordered Mubarak to be held under house arrest following his release. Mubarak still faces charges of corruption and the deaths of protesters during the 2011 revolution. Mahmoud Ezzat was named interim leader of the Muslim Brotherhood on Tuesday, after Egyptian security forces arrested Mohamed Badie, the supreme guide of the Muslim Brotherhood, earlier in the day. Tunisia. The ruling Nahda party agreed in principle today to a plan proposed by the UGTT trade union federation for the transition to new elections. The plan calls for the current government to step down and for a neutral interim cabinet to steer the country to new elections. The Nahda party previously rejected calls for a nonpartisan government, but now appears willing to shift its position. Tunisia has been experiencing a fresh wave of protests following the assassination of Mohamed Brahmi, the second opposition figure to be killed in the past six months. U.S. Foreign Policy Egypt. President Barack Obama met with his national security team on Tuesday to discuss responses to the Egyptian military’s crackdown. White House spokesman Josh Earnest denied on Tuesday that U.S. aid to Egypt had been cutoff or suspended as had been suggested by Senator Patrick Leahy’s office earlier in the day. “A decision to cut off aid would be announced, if it were to be announced, after that review had been completed,” Earnest told reporters, referring to the still ongoing review of aid that Obama ordered in July. Syria. General Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, wrote in a letter to Representative Eliot Engel on Monday that, “Syria today is not about choosing between two sides but rather about choosing one among many sides.” He acknowledged the United States could take out the Syrian air force, but that such action might “further commit the United States to the conflict.” Dempsey was responding to a letter from Engel that inquired about the potential for punishing President Bashar al-Assad’s government. Dempsey’s response pre-dates reports that the Syrian regime used chemical weapons on Wednesday. Lebanon. Maura Connelly, U.S. ambassador to Lebanon, left the country on Tuesday, completing three years as the top U.S. official in the country. David Hale, former U.S. special envoy for Middle East peace, is expected to take over the post in the next few weeks. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Iran. Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Iran’s longtime ambassador to the International Nuclear Energy Agency, told Reuters yesterday that he will leave his post on September 1. Soltanieh will be the third senior nuclear official replaced since President Hassan Rouhani assumed office on August 3. A spokesman for the Iranian foreign ministry told reporters on Tuesday that newly confirmed Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif may handle nuclear negotiations. Iraq. Over thirty thousand refugees have streamed into Iraq from Syria over the past week. Aid agencies reported on Tuesday that the Kurdistan regional government has put in place a quota limiting the number of refugees to three thousand per day. Meanwhile three separate car bombings in southern cities on Tuesday killed at least ten people. Lebanon. Hezbollah member of parliament Ali Miqdad defended his group’s stepped-up security measures in Beirut today in response to a car bombing that killed twenty-seven people last week. Members of the Future parliamentary bloc criticized Hezbollah’s checkpoints in the capital’s southern suburbs on Tuesday for being “militia-like.” Last week’s car bombing was the deadliest in Lebanon in decades. This Week in History This week marks the twentieth anniversary of the initialing of the "Declaration of Principles on Interim Self-Government Arrangements," also known as the Oslo Accords. On August 20, 1993, Israeli officials Uri Savir and Joel Singer joined senior Palestinian Liberation Organization officials Ahmed Qurei (Abu Alaa) and Hassan Asfour to initial the Declaration of Principles. Also attending was Israeli foreign minister Shimon Peres. The agreement to negotiate further interim measures had been secretly negotiated between Israeli and Palestinian negotiators in Norway. Soon after the initialing of the agreement, Israeli prime minister Yitzhak Rabin and PLO chairman Yasser Arafat traveled to Washington where they signed the agreements on the White House lawn on September 13, 1993.

Blog Post by Robert Danin August 22, 2013 Middle East Matters
United States

Middle East Matters This Week: Egypt’s Brutal Crackdown, Syrian-Related Diplomacy, and Israelis and Palestinians Negotiate

Significant Developments Egypt. President Barack Obama today strongly condemned the Egyptian military’s use of force and announced the cancellation of next month’s joint U.S.-Egyptian "Bright Star" military exercise. Obama was reacting to Egypt’s crackdown on supporters of deposed president Mohammad Morsi last night that left over five hundred people dead and thousands injured. The assault on the protest encampments prompted retaliatory attacks against government buildings. Interim vice president Mohammad ElBaradei resigned last night over the continuing violence. Secretary of State John Kerry last night called the events “deplorable” and “counter to Egyptian aspirations for peace, inclusion, and genuine democracy.” The Morsi supporters had been camped out since the Egyptian military removed President Morsi from power on July 3. Syria. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon announced today that a team of UN chemical weapons experts will depart for Syria imminently. The team is set to inspect three sites of possible chemical weapons use. Meanwhile, Syrian president Bashar al-Assad exempted thousands of army reservists yesterday from paying debt installments and late fees in a move meant to boost morale. Russian deputy foreign minister Gennady Gatilov said on Tuesday that a Syria peace conference will not be held before October. The New York Times reported on Monday that Sudan is providing the weapons that Qatar is shipping to the Syrian rebels. Israel-Palestine. Israeli and Palestinian negotiators met in Jerusalem yesterday as direct negotiations resumed. The Israeli team is led by Justice Minister Tzipi Livni and Prime Minister Netanyahu’s special advisor Isaac Molcho. Saeb Erekat and Mohammad Shtayyeh lead the Palestinian team. Israel released twenty-six Palestinian prisoners yesterday as part of the deal to resume negotiations, but also announced it would be building over one thousand new apartments in East Jerusalem and the West Bank. U.S. Foreign Policy Jordan. General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told a group of American troops on the outskirts of Amman today that the U.S. presence in Jordan would likely last several years. Dempsey then clarified: “We haven’t actually put an end-date on it for that very reason - because it will depend how the situation evolves in Syria.” He met with Jordanian king Abdullah yesterday and agreed to bring back a request to Washington for manned U.S. surveillance aircraft to monitor the border with Syria. Israel. General Dempsey was in Israel from Monday until Wednesday, where he met Israeli leaders, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon and IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz. At a photo op with Dempsey, Netanyahu said that the threat from Iran dwarfs all other threats in the region. Regarding Iran, Dempsey said, “We have better military options than we did a year ago.” Reopening of Embassies. Eighteen of nineteen closed U.S. embassies reopened on Sunday after being closed for a week. The embassy in Yemen remains closed after the United States intercepted a message from al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri to Nasir al-Wuhayshi, the leader of Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Turkey-Lebanon. Turkish foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu called the recent kidnapping of two Turkish pilots in Beirut “a clear act of terror” today. Inan Ozyildiz, Turkish ambassador to Lebanon reportedly met with representatives from Hezbollah yesterday to discuss the release of the pilots. A group called “Zuwar Al Rida” claimed responsibility for the kidnappings which occurred last Friday on the road between Beirut and the airport. Zuwar Al Rida demanded that Turkey pressure the Syrian opposition to release nine Lebanese pilgrims who were kidnapped in May 2012. Bahrain. Pro-democracy protestors clashed with Bahraini riot police yesterday, exchanging tear gas and firebombs. The main opposition group, Al Wefaq claimed that sixty demonstrations occurred around Bahrain. Kuwait. Information Minister Salman al-Homood announced the cancellation of prominent Sunni cleric Shafi al-Ajmi’s new television show on Tuesday. Al-Ajmi’s show, “Follow the Path of the Prophet,” had premiered on Monday and only aired one episode before its cancellation. Al-Ajmi writes anti-Shiite rhetoric in online forums and actively fundraises for Syrian rebels, including al-Qaeda-linked Jubhat al-Nusra. “The ministry of information does not approve of airing episodes for any individuals who instigates hatred and promotes such rhetoric,” said al-Homood. Tunisia. Tunisia’s opposition threatened to step up its pressure on the government after Rachid Ghannouchi, the chairman of Tunisia’s ruling Ennahda party, dismissed demands for a technocratic government today. Ghannouchi said that he could accept a national unity government, but felt that technocrats could not “manage the delicate situation in the country.” This Week in History Today marks the sixtieth anniversary of the beginning of the U.S.-backed coup that removed Iranian prime minister Mohammad Mosaddeq. On August 15, 1953, Colonel Nematollah Nassiri attempted to arrest Mosaddeq, bearing royal decrees signed by Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. Word was leaked to Mosaddeq about the plot and he was able to arrest Colonel Nassiri instead. The coup was believed to be a failure, and the shah fled to Baghdad. However, the coup succeeded on August 19 and General Fazlollah Zahedi replaced Iran’s first democratically elected prime minister.

Blog Post by Robert Danin August 15, 2013 Middle East Matters

Israel

Does Freeing Murderers Bring Peace?

Today Israel will free 26 murderers, a price exacted by the PLO before it would return to peace negotiations. Israel has entered into such deals before, for example freeing over 1,000 prisoners in exchange for the captured corporal Gilad Shalit. But in that case the decision was Israel’s own, and the United States rightly played no role. Weighing whether the maintenance of its policy of bringing every soldier home was worth the price was an Israeli, not an American, responsibility. But today we have some moral responsibility for the prisoner releases, because we pushed for them as part of the way to get the PLO back to the table. The Jerusalem Post describes the crimes these men have committed, and here are examples: Salah Ibrahim Ahmed Mugdad, who was arrested in June 1993 for the murder of Israel Tenenbaum, a 72-year-old security guard at the Sirens Hotel in Netanya. The Fatah member struck Tenenbauon on the head with an iron bar and stole a television set from the hotel....Mustafa Othman al-Haj, who was arrested in June 1989 for the murder of 48-year-old Steven Frederick Rosenfeld. Rosenfeld had been hiking in the hills near Ariel and was stabbed with his own knife by a group of shepherds, who hid his body....Atiyeh Salem Musa, who, along with an accomplice, used an ax to murder a Jewish co-worker, 67-year-old Isaac Rotenberg, during Passover 1994. The murder took place while Rotenberg was hunched on his knees fixing a floor at his place of employment in Petah Tikva. He was struck on the back of his neck, dying two days later. The Wall Street Journal asked today "why anyone should expect that a peace process that begins by setting murderers free is likely to result in peace." But things will become even more macabre in the coming days, when the axe murderer, the stabber, the iron bar killer and all the rest are romanticized, celebrated, wined, dined, and officially received as great heroes by the PLO. It will be interesting to see what if anything the United States says about all of that. Will Secretary Kerry and his team maintain a polite silence, or utter the usual State Department words like "unfortunate" or perhaps "disappointing," or will they say they are disgusted and sickened by that display and that it makes peace much harder to achieve? Will they condemn the PLO and PA for it? Don’t count on it.

Blog Post by Elliott Abrams August 13, 2013 Pressure Points
United States

Middle East Matters This Week: Damascene Violence, Israeli Settlements, Egyptian protests, and Iranian Talks About Talks

Significant Developments Syria. Syrian officials denied rebel claims that they hit part of President Bashar al-Assad’s motorcade with artillery shells near his home in Damascus today. The president appeared on national television later in the day. If confirmed, today’s attack would be one of the most direct against Assad in two years of fighting. At least 4,420 people, most of them fighters, were killed during the month of Ramadan, Syrian Observatory for Human Rights director Rami Abdel Rahman reported today. The Syrian army killed more than sixty insurgents near Damascus yesterday while rebels reportedly gained control of a government air base on Tuesday and captured four villages in Latakia on Monday. Meanwhile, Assad banned on Sunday the use of foreign currencies for business transactions in an effort to strengthen the Syrian pound. Violators could be fined or sentenced to up to six months in jail. Israel-Palestine. Israel’s military-run Civil Administration announced that initial plans were approved yesterday for eight hundred new homes in the West Bank that the government has yet to okay. The Israeli cabinet on Sunday added several Israeli West Bank settlements to a “national priority list,” making those settlements eligible for extra subsidies and infrastructure projects. These moves could complicate the ongoing Israeli-Palestine peace negotiations. Tzipi Livni, the Israeli minister leading the negotiations, abstained on the vote approving the national priority list. Meanwhile, Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas canceled a meeting with Fatah and PLO leaders and instead traveled to Saudi Arabia on Tuesday where he met with Saudi king Abdullah Bin Abdulaziz. Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations are set to begin next week in Jerusalem. Egypt. Naglaa Mahmoud, the wife of former president Mohammad Morsi, addressed thousands of supporters today in her first public appearance since the July 3 coup. She spoke at a protest camp in Cairo and vowed that Morsi would return to office. Interim president Adly Mansour yesterday declared international efforts to resolve the political crisis a failure. Mansour said that he “holds the Muslim Brotherhood completely responsible for the failure of these efforts, and for consequent events and developments relating to violations of the law and endangering public safety.” Prime Minister Al-Beblawi also said that the military would begin clearing pro-Morsi sit-ins, and he warned against resistance to those efforts. A Cairo court ruled on Sunday that three top Muslim Brotherhood officials will go to trial on August 25 over charges of inciting Brotherhood members to kill rioters. The Brotherhood’s supreme guide, Mohamed Badie; his deputy, Khairat el-Shater; and another official, Mohamed Bayoumi, stand accused of incitement to murder. Meanwhile, an unknown gunman shot and killed Abdel Hamid al-Salami, a former parliamentarian, in El Arish, North Sinai yesterday. The Sinai Peninsula has seen an uptick in violence over the last month, and the Egyptian military yesterday announced that it had killed sixty Sinai militants since Morsi’s ouster on July 3. Iran. Recently inaugurated president Hassan Rouhani declared on Tuesday that he was “seriously determined” to resolve the ongoing nuclear dispute and was prepared to enter “serious and substantive” negotiations. The last high-level round of international negotiations was held in April and failed to break the deadlock. Meanwhile, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Monday appointed former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to the Expediency Council, Iran’s top supervisory body. Iranian authorities have arrested a man on charges of spying for Israel, the Mehr news agency reported on Monday. The man will face trial, and espionage is punishable by death under Iranian law. U.S. Foreign Policy Egypt. Senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham traveled to Cairo this week at President Barack Obama’s request. In Egypt, they warned on Tuesday that the U.S. government would cut off aid if the interim government failed to transition toward democracy. “We are hoping and begging and pleading with the people of Egypt that they will look forward and not backward; that means releasing people so that they can negotiate,” Graham said. “It is impossible to talk to somebody who’s in jail.” Their visit came after deputy secretary of state Bill Burns, European Union envoy Bernardino Leon, and an official from the African Union visited Muslim Brotherhood leader Khairat al-Shater in prison on Sunday. Secretary of State John Kerry on Sunday recommended Robert Ford, the current ambassador to Syria, to become the next U.S. ambassador to Egypt. Ford must still be approved by the White House and confirmed by the Senate, although no major opposition is expected. Ford was recalled from Syria in February 2012 and now serves as the chief American envoy to the Syrian opposition. Closing of Embassies. Reports from Yemen of a potential al-Qaeda terrorist attack prompted the closure of nineteen U.S. embassies and consulates in sixteen countries across the Middle East and Africa. Britain and France extended the closure of their Yemeni embassies after the State Department announced on Sunday that U.S. diplomatic outposts will remain closed until Saturday. Syria. The United States will provide Syria with an additional $195 million in food and humanitarian aid, President Barack Obama announced yesterday. This aid brings the total U.S. humanitarian contribution to more than $1 billion since the Syrian crisis began. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Yemen. Security officials in Sana claimed yesterday that they had foiled an al-Qaeda plot to seize an important port and kill or kidnap foreigners working there, though the claims could not be confirmed. It was unclear whether the alleged plot was disrupted by recent U.S. drone attacks. Drone strikes have killed at least fourteen people in Yemen the last three days. Tunisia. The leading Islamist party yesterday agreed to suspend the National Constitution Assembly and urged talks to form a national unity party. Tens of thousands of people demonstrated against the Ennahda government in Tunis on Tuesday after weeks of unrest sparked by the July 25 killing of an opposition member. Turkey. Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan said today that Turkey’s parliament may reconvene early from summer recess to pass laws that would expand Kurdish rights. Kurds are calling for legislative reforms to address long-standing grievances, such as Kurdish language education and expansion of local governance. More than seventy-five people, including Turkey’s former military chief, were convicted Monday of plotting to overthrow Erdogan’s government in 2002. Some 250 people are facing verdicts in this landmark five-year-trial, and defendants are expected to appeal Monday’s sentences. Iraq. A two-pronged attack on a policeman’s home killed the policeman and twelve others in central Iraq, police officials said today. Bombings killed six people yesterday and at least fifty-one people on Tuesday, part of a surge of violence in recent months. Saudi Arabia. Saudi officials have reportedly offered Russia a range of economic incentives, including a major arms deal, in exchange for scaled back Russian support for Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, news sources reported yesterday. The deal was supposedly proposed by Saudi intelligence chief Prince Bandar bin Sultan at a meeting with Russian president Vladimir Putin in Moscow last week. This Week in History This Saturday marks the ninety-third anniversary of the signing of the Treaty of Sèvres, the post-World War I agreement that partitioned the defeated Ottoman Empire. On August 10, 1920, the victorious Allied powers, led by Great Britain and France, forced representatives of the Ottoman sultan Mehmed VI to sign the treaty. The terms left Turkey with a small state in Anatolia while dismembering the rest of the former empire. The treaty placed Mesopotamia and Palestine under British mandatory rule, while Syria was placed under a French mandate, the Kingdom of Hejaz was granted independence in the Arabian Peninsula, an autonomous Kurdish zone was created, and Armenia was granted independence. However, a rival nationalist government in Turkey that came to power under Mustafa Kemal Ataturk rejected the treaty that was signed by the sultan. Ataturk’s triumph in the Greco-Turkish war and the formation of the modern state of Turkey led to the negotiation of the Treaty of Lausanne in 1923 which superseded the never implemented Treaty of Sèvres. The new treaty defined the boundaries of the Turkish Republic, and notably did not include either Kurdish autonomy or Armenian independence.

Blog Post by Robert Danin August 8, 2013 Middle East Matters
Middle East and North Africa

How Many Israelis Live in "Settlements?"

This may seem to be a simple question, but efforts to answer it show that it is actually complex. For one thing, what’s a "settlement?" What are the "major blocks?" How many Israelis live in the major blocks and how many in smaller settlements beyond the security fence? Are those settlements growing? I tried to answer those questions in an article entitled "The Unsettled Question," published today in Foreign Policy. Oddly enough, both the settler movement and the Palestinian Authority have often exaggerated the numbers--for different and indeed opposite reasons. The article is an effort to find the facts upon which policy arguments should be based. The bottom line: settlements beyond the security fence are indeed growing in population, and considerably faster than Israel’s population. In the years I examined (with Uri Sadot, the co-author), Israel’s population grew about 6 percent but these settlements grew about 17 percent, if the data we used--based on electoral rolls--is accurate. Roughly 80,000 Israelis appear to live now in settlements in the West Bank that are not typically viewed as areas Israel would keep under the terms of the most likely final status agreements. Whether it is in Israel’s interest for that number to grow is, of course, a hotly debated policy matter. As we state in the article, "If the guiding Israeli principle remains a two-state solution, partition of the West Bank, and separation from the Palestinians, it is especially hard to see the logic in allowing further blending of the populations." But whatever one’s policy views, information is useful. As Uri and I end the article, "It is hard to come up with hard numbers, and we acknowledge the limitations to our methodology. But the very fact that facts are hard to come by is significant: Transparency won’t end the debate on settlement expansion, but it would make that debate better informed and far more intelligent."

Blog Post by Elliott Abrams July 29, 2013 Pressure Points

United States

Three Major Challenges for Israeli-Palestinian Negotiations

Israeli and Palestinian peace talks are poised to resume after a prolonged hiatus. Six Middle East trips, and tireless efforts by Secretary of State John Kerry made this resumption possible. The talks face three major challenges as a new chapter begins in the twenty year-long saga of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. Diplomatic Ambiguity. One fundamental challenge will be turning the very ambiguity that is enabling talks to resume, into the clarity and transparency necessary for a durable agreement. Vague diplomatic formulas were used to bridge seemingly irreconcilable differences. This allowed both Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Palestinian President Abbas to claim that they did not back down to get talks started. But the goal of negotiations is to put pen to paper. There, transparency will be needed to produce an agreement that resolves core differences, such delineating the Israel-Palestine border. Domestic Constraints. Secondly, both Israelis and Palestinians will face formidable domestic challenges to making diplomatic progress. Both sides will be negotiating, not only with each other across a table, but also with their own people back home. Resuming talks with Israel are very unpopular amongst Palestinians, even within Fatah and the Palestine Liberation Organization, which President Abbas heads. Abbas’ main political opposition, Hamas, has denounced the talks. Palestinians fear that Israel wants open ended negotiations, and that their political standing will fall without rapid and tangible results from talks. This both constrains Abbas’ ability to be flexible while pressuring him to obtain quick results from Israel. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Netanyahu’s domestic situation is also difficult. Some of his main coalition partners oppose the creation of a Palestinian state, as do many of his own Likud party lieutenants. To make negotiating concessions to the Palestinians, Netanyahu may need to realign his political base, and even leave his party to make progress with the Palestinians, as did three earlier Likud leaders-- Arik Sharon, Ehud Olmert, and Tzipi Livni. U.S. Opportunity Costs. The third major challenge concerns the United States. This latest effort to launch talks required sustained, high level engagement by Secretary of State Kerry. Indeed, it has taken up more of his time in office, so far, than any other single issue. Yet the U.S. faces many other pressing problems of vital national concern in the Middle East and in the rest of the world. At some point soon, Secretary Kerry and President Obama will have to decide if Israeli-Palestinian talks merit the sustained investment of precious time and effort by America’s lead diplomat, or if the Secretary’s energies would better be utilized trying to end the regionally destabilizing war in Syria, manage the delicate road ahead with Egypt, or lead a coalition to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Pursuing all of these objectives, while producing an Israeli-Palestinian agreement, will be a major challenge, to say the least.

Blog Post by Robert Danin July 29, 2013 Middle East Matters
United States

Why Is the United States Asking Israel to Release Terrorists?

The Government of Israel has announced that it will release 104 "security prisoners" in an effort to induce the PLO to return to the negotiating table. This was a PLO demand that was backed by the United States, as part of Secretary Kerry’s efforts to get talks restarted. Put aside for the moment the oddity that the Palestinians must be bribed in this way to negotiate. One might have thought that they would wish to negotiate--because they wish to end the Israeli occupation and move toward independence. My question is why the United States asks a friend to do what we would not do--release terrorists. Here is how the Washington Postdescribed those who will be released: The list of prisoners who may be released in coming days includes militants who threw firebombs, in one case at a bus carrying children; stabbed and shot civilians, including women, elderly Jews and suspected Palestinian collaborators; and ambushed and killed border guards, police officers, security agents and soldiers. Israel has at times undertaken huge prisoner releases, for example letting a thousand men out to get back the kidnapped soldier Gilad Shalit. But that was their own sovereign decision, taken after long national debate. Here, we are pressing them to release prisoners. We will bear none of the risk that any of them may return to violence, which makes our requests and pressure difficult to justify morally. Nor do we face the terrible problem of explaining to the victims of these crimes, and their relatives and survivors, why they were set free. Meanwhile, our own policy toward terrorists remains tough and uncompromising. Just this month the President gave a speech defending vigorously his use of drone attacks. So, we escalate our effort to kill terrorists while urging an ally to release terrorists from prison. It would be worth asking the administration how that position can be defended morally.

Blog Post by Elliott Abrams July 29, 2013 Pressure Points
Israel

Israeli-Palestinian Negotiations: Three Things to Know

Peace talks between Israelis and Palestinians have relaunched, ensuring major new challenges for both parties and the United States, says CFR’s Robert Danin.

Explainer Video with Robert Danin July 25, 2013
United States

Middle East Matters This Week: Syria at the UN, Egypt’s Demonstrations, and Israeli-Palestinian Talks

Significant Developments Syria. Secretary of State John Kerry met Ahmed al-Jarba, the Syrian National Coalition’s (SNC) newly elected leader, late this afternoon at the United Nations to discuss “political solutions” to the Syrian conflict. Al-Jarba met with French president Francois Hollande in Paris yesterday in an effort to push for military and humanitarian aid. United Nations disarmament chief Angela Kane and Swedish chemical weapons expert Ake Sellstrom left Damascus today after a two-day visit to discuss with Syrian officials the scope of the UN’s upcoming inquiry into the alleged use of chemical weapons in the war. Syrian officials seek to limit the panel’s investigation to the suspected March 19 use of sarin gas in Aleppo, while the UN and U.S. are seeking unrestricted access for the investigators. UN Middle East envoy Robert Serry told the Security Council on Tuesday that the international organization has received thirteen reports of alleged chemical weapons use in Syria. In Syria, over two thousand people have been killed since Ramadan began on July 10, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said today. More than 1,323 of the dead were reportedly fighters. Syrian rebels claimed control of western Aleppo on Tuesday, and government troops killed forty-nine rebel fighters in Adra, a suburb of Damascus, on Sunday. Egypt. The Egyptian Trade Union Federation today announced that five million workers will protest tomorrow in pro-military demonstrations. During a speech to military graduates yesterday, Defense Minister Abdel Fattah al-Sisi called for the Friday demonstrations to provide the military a “mandate” to confront violence and terrorism. “I’m asking you to show the world,” he said. “If violence is sought, or terrorism is sought, the military and the police are authorized to confront this.” The Tamarod movement echoed al-Sisi’s call and voiced its support for the demonstrations, while the Muslim Brotherhood called for counter-demonstrations. Meanwhile, Qatar on Tuesday called for deposed Egyptian president Mohammad Morsi to be released from military detention, adding its voice to calls by the EU, U.S. and Morsi’s family. Nine people were killed and thirty-three others wounded on Tuesday in clashes between opponents and Islamist supporters of Morsi at a Muslim Brotherhood protest at Cairo University. Morsi supporters have been camped out there since the July 3 coup. Israel-Palestine. Preliminary peace talks between Israeli and Palestinian officials are scheduled to begin in Washington on Tuesday, according to the Israeli media. Israeli and Palestinian negotiators Tzipi Livni and Saeb Erekat are slated to meet in Washington next week in order to get negotiations restarted. Israeli media reports eighty-two Palestinian prisoners would be released by Israel over the next few months as a show of good will. Palestinian officials continue to stress that peace talks will not begin without an affirmation of the 1967 line as the basis for talks. Meanwhile, Secretary of State John Kerry is reportedly building a new team to manage the Israel-Palestine peace talks. Martin Indyk, a former American ambassador to Israel, is reportedly likely to be tapped to head the effort. Click here for my take on Secretary Kerry’s efforts to get the parties to the table. U.S. Foreign Policy Syria. U.S. plans to arm Syrian rebels may face further Congressional hurdles when funding for the classified program runs out on September 30, U.S. officials said today. President Barack Obama will reportedly move forward with plans to arm the Syrian rebels after working with Congress to overcome concerns. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Martin Dempsey, testified last week before the Armed Services Committee and wrote an open letter to senators on five potential military options for Syria, including limited strikes and establishing a no-fly zone. "The decision to use force is not one that any of us takes lightly. It is no less than an act of war," he wrote. Iran. The U.S. House of Representatives will vote next week on legislation that would severely curtail Iran’s ability to export oil. Legislators aim to toughen sanctions and bring Iranian exports close to zero, which would impact global oil prices and would risk antagonizing China and India, the largest remaining buyers of Iranian crude oil. Egypt. The Pentagon announced yesterday that President Barack Obama has held up delivery of four F-16 fighter planes to the Egyptian air force. Administration officials said that Obama wanted to send Egypt’s military-led government a signal of Washington’s displeasure with the military’s detention of opposition figures. “We’ve been very clear with the military: we understand this is a difficult situation but we want things to get back on track,” a Pentagon official said. “Trying to break the neck of the Brotherhood is not going to be good for Egypt or for the region.” The decision does not mark a suspension of military assistance to Egypt and will not affect the $1.5 billion in American aid. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Tunisia. Mohammad Brahmi, general coordinator of the Popular Movement and member of the National Constituent Assembly, was shot dead this morning outside his home in Ariana. Hours later, thousands of Tunisians protested in front of the Ministry of Interior in Tunis. This is the second killing of an opposition member this year, following that of Chokri Belaid. Iraq. Militants today ambushed a truck convoy with Iraqi Shiites and killed fourteen drivers in a village outside the northern city of Tuz Khormato, the latest in a series of bold attacks. Meanwhile, al-Qaeda claimed responsibility on Tuesday for deadly attacks on the prisons at Abu Ghraib and Taji. The highly coordinated assaults began Sunday evening and involved mortars, suicide bombers, and an assault force, killing at least twenty-five members of the Iraqi security forces. Iraqi officials said eight hundred prisoners had escaped from Abu Ghraib, of whom four hundred have since been re-captured or killed, and that no prisoners had escaped from Taji. “If Al Qaeda can attack a prison, it means they can do whatever they want whenever they want,” said a lawyer, Meluk Abdil Wahab, 45. July has been the deadliest month of 2013 for Iraq, with the death toll at 626 as of Tuesday. Lebanon. The European Union will continue working with the Lebanese government even though Hezbollah is part of it, EU Ambassador Angelina Eichhorst said on Tuesday. Lebanese officials had objected to the EU’s Monday designation of Hezbollah’s “military wing” as a terrorist organization. The move places travel restrictions on selected members and will freeze assets associated with the group. Catherine Ashton, the EU’s top foreign policy official, acknowledged that the designation was “partly a political signal.” Iran. Russian president Vladimir Putin will reportedly meet with Iranian president Hassan Rouhani next month in Tehran to discuss restarting talks on Iran’s nuclear program, Russian and Iranian news media reported today. Putin last visited Iran in 2007. Qatar. The new emir, Sheik Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, will continue aiding Syrian rebels until Syrian president Bashar al-Assad is toppled, Syria’s opposition envoy to Doha said yesterday. Qatar recently gave $5 million to the Syrian National Coalition to purchase humanitarian supplies. This Week in History This week marks the sixty-first anniversary of the 1952 Egyptian Revolution that removed Egypt’s King Farouk from power. On July 23, 1952, General Muhammad Naguib, Colonel Gamal Abdel Nasser and Colonel Anwar Sadat led a coup of the so-called Free Officers against Farouk, whose rule had been criticized for corruption and its defeat in the 1948 Arab-Israeli war. Three days later after the coup, Farouk formally abdicated the throne in favor of his son, and a Regency Council was appointed. While the revolution was initially aimed at overthrowing Farouk, the movement had more political ambitions and soon moved to abolish the constitutional monarchy and establish a republic. Naguib, the figurehead leader of the coup, assumed the post of prime minister in September 1952 and established the Republic of Egypt in June 1953. Naguib then became the first president of Egypt, and Nasser became deputy prime minister. In 1954, Nasser removed Naguib from power and proclaimed himself prime minister of Egypt. In 1956, Nasser was elected, unopposed, to the presidency. He died in office in 1970.

Blog Post by Robert Danin July 25, 2013 Middle East Matters
United States

Secretary Kerry’s Creative Ambiguity and Israeli-Palestinian Peace Talks

At the conclusion of his sixth arduous Middle East shuttle Friday night, Secretary of State John Kerry announced the imminent resumption of Israeli-Palestinian peace talks in Washington. Kerry’s circuitous announcement, that the parties had “reached an agreement that establishes a basis for resuming direct final status negotiations,” was short on details and ambiguous, even by diplomatic standards. Such imprecision at first blush suggests that the parties still have a ways to go before the United States’ chief diplomat can declare negotiations fully back on track. But it also reflects a highly creative use of diplomatic ambiguity as a means towards allowing each side to find a way back to the negotiating table. Recall, ever since formal negotiations fell apart in September 2010, Prime Minister Netanyahu has adhered to the position that negotiations should resume without preconditions. Meanwhile, PLO President Mahmoud Abbas has said he will not return to the table without certain assurances: a West Bank settlement freeze and the release of prisoners, for starters. By saying that the parties have not agreed yet to negotiations, but have agreed to face-to-face talks in the U.S. capital, Kerry has found a way for both sides to declare their needs met for an eventual return to negotiations. Netanyahu can say that he succeeded in producing negotiations without preconditions. Indeed, he did just that, issuing a statement twenty-four hours after Kerry’s, welcoming “the resumption of the diplomatic process as this time.” In the wake of Kerry’s announcement, Palestinian officials have insisted that they have not yet agreed to negotiations, only to efforts to secure their demands. That formula allowed Israeli and Palestinian “face-to-face talks” over the course of 2011 and 2012 without calling them negotiations. On Saturday, Israel’s Minister of International Relations announced Israel would release “heavyweight” Palestinian prisoners who have been incarcerated for over twenty years. Such releases are unlikely to occur before talks begin. Thus, Israel will maintain that the release of “pre-Oslo” prisoners, as they are frequently called, is not a payment for negotiations, and the Palestinians will claim just the opposite. Producing such diplomatic sleights of hand is what has made Kerry’s efforts to restart negotiations so challenging. Yet they are precisely what have been necessary. Perhaps the biggest challenge for American mediators has been producing a formula for the basis of talks. The Palestinian have long held that talks must begin on the basis of the line that demarcated the West Bank from Israel prior to the June 1967 Six Day War. Israel, in turn, has insisted that any terms of reference must include a Palestinian acceptance of Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish state as part of any terms for talks. The New York Times reported that Secretary Kerry will issue a statement that negotiations will be based on the 1967 land with land swaps AND recognition of Israel as a Jewish state. The U.S. has reportedly reached understandings that neither side will be forced to publicly endorse these principles. Both Abbas and Netanyahu will be able to claim that they did not cross their red-lines for entering negotiations—an assertion their domestic critics will call legalistic diplomatese. While neither man faces a public clamoring for an active peace process, neither party wants to be accused of foiling an activist secretary of state who has early on staked this issue out as a legacy agenda item. Diplomatic ambiguity of the sort produced by Secretary Kerry will likely allow Israeli-Palestinian negotiations to resume in the immediate period ahead, despite their clear procedural and substantive differences. Yet getting the parties to this point entailed a tremendous investment of political personal prestige and energy. Getting the two sides to agree to an enduring peace agreement will require clarity and transparency—two elements lacking to date. Substantive progress will require Secretary Kerry’s constant engagement and a tremendous expenditure of diplomatic capital. That alone, however, is unlikely to be sufficient.

Blog Post by Robert Danin July 20, 2013 Middle East Matters
Turkey

Weekend Reading: Egypt’s Economy, Turkey’s Foreign Ministry, and Greening the West Bank

Matt Phillips, writing for Quartz, provides some startling figures about Egypt’s economy following the ouster of former President Hosni Mubarak. Kadri Gursel examines the Islamization of Turkey’s foreign ministry and its implications. Avi Zimmerman asks if environmental issues can help bring Palestinians and Israelis together.

Blog Post by Steven A. Cook July 19, 2013 From the Potomac to the Euphrates
United States

Middle East Matters This Week: Egypt’s Post-Coup Government and Other Regional Developments

Significant Developments Egypt. European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton met senior pro-Morsi figures during her visit to Cairo yesterday. Ashton’s meetings included former premier Hisham Qandil and representatives from the Freedom and Justice Party. Ashton also met with leaders of the new government as well as members of the Tamarod campaign. She said the EU wanted Egypt to move “swiftly” towards an inclusive democratic process and called for deposed Egyptian president Mohammad Morsi to be released from military detention. Thousands of pro-Morsi supporters demonstrated outside the prime minister’s office yesterday in a "day of steadfastness" against the formation of a new interim cabinet. On Tuesday, Egypt’s interim president, Adly Mansour, swore in a thirty-four-member cabinet dominated by liberals and technocrats. General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, already general commander of the army and defense minister, also became deputy prime minister. Hazem al-Beblawi and Mansour remain as prime minister and president, respectively. Mohammad Ibrahim, a rare holdover from the Morsi government, remains as interior minister. Nabil Fahmy, former ambassador to Washington, was appointed foreign minister. There are three women ministers and three Coptic Christians in this new government, with no figures from Islamist parties. The Muslim Brotherhood, which refused to participate, denounced the interim government as “illegitimate.” Syria. An estimated five thousand Syrians are dying every month in the country’s civil war, UN High Commissioner for Refugees Antonio Guterres said Tuesday. Nearly 1.8 million Syrian refugees have fled, and the numbers are escalating at a rate not seen since the 1994 Rwanda genocide. “We are not only watching the destruction of a country but also of its people,” UN humanitarian chief Valerie Amos said. Meanwhile, Kurdish fighters yesterday seized control of Ras al-Ain, a Syrian border town, following days of clashes with Islamist fighters. The Democratic Union Party has links to Kurdish militants in Turkey, heightening Ankara’s fears that a more autonomous Kurdish region in Syria could emerge and escalate Kurdish tensions in Turkey. Pro-government militants killed six Syrian mediators from the National Reconciliation Committee in Hajar al-Abyad on Monday evening. The men were reportedly attempting to broker talks between Sunni Muslims and members of the minority Alawite sect. U.S. Foreign Policy Egypt. Deputy Secretary of State William Burns visited Cairo for two days earlier this week—the first visit by a senior U.S. official since the coup that ousted Egyptian president Mohammad Morsi on July 3. Burns appealed for an end to violence, called for an end to politically motivated arrests, referred to Morsi’s ouster as a “second chance” for Egyptian democracy, and reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to Egypt’s success. He met with members of the new interim government on Monday, but was rebuffed by representatives of the Tamarod campaign and by Islamists. “The United States is firmly committed to helping Egypt succeed in this second chance to realize the promise of the revolution,” Burns said. “I am not naive. I know that many Egyptians have doubts about the United States, and I know that there will be nothing neat or easy about the road ahead.” Jordan. Secretary of State John Kerry continued intensive talks today in Jordan as part of his ongoing effort to revive Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said today that despite earlier signs of progress there were no plans for an announcement on resuming peace talks. The Fatah Central Committee met this evening, following two rounds of intensive talks between Kerry and Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas, and called for talks to be based on the 1967 lines. This current three day trip marks Kerry’s sixth peace process visit to the region since taking office. Earlier today, Kerry visited Jordan’s Zaatari refugee camp which hosts roughly 115,000 Syrian refugees. “They are frustrated and angry at the world for not stepping in and helping,” Kerry told reporters. “I explained to them I don’t think it’s as cut and dry and as simple as some of them look at it. But if I were in their shoes I would be looking for help from wherever I could find it,” he said. Syria. In confirmation hearings today for a second term as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Martin Dempsey told the Senate Armed Services Committee that the Obama administration is deliberating whether to use military force in Syria. Dempsey said that he had provided the president with options for the use of force but declined to elaborate. “I am in favor of building a moderate opposition and supporting it," Dempsey said. “The question whether to support it with direct kinetic strikes...is a decision for our elected officials, not for the senior military leader of the nation.” Senator John McCain said he would block Dempsey’s nomination over frustration with Dempsey’s comments on Syria. “If it is your position that you do not provide personal views to the committee when asked – only under certain circumstances – then you have just contradicted what I have known this committee to operate under for the last 30 years,” McCain said at the end of his questioning. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Lebanon. Unidentified men shot and killed a prominent pro-Assad Syrian official, Mohammad Darrar Jammo, outside his home in southern Lebanon on Wednesday. The attack came one day after a roadside bomb struck a Hezbollah convoy near the Syrian border, killing one member and wounding two others, security officials said. No group has claimed responsibility for the attacks, but the targets suggest continued spillover from the conflict in Syria. Turkey. A man and a fifteen-year-old boy were killed by stray bullets shot from Syria into a Turkish border town on Tuesday, officials said yesterday. Turkish troops reportedly returned fire. The incident was the most serious spillover of Syrian violence into Turkey in weeks. Iraq. More than 160 Iraqis have been killed in suicide attacks, car bombings, and other violence in the first seven days of Ramadan, marking the highest death toll since 2007 for the start of the Islamic holy month. Israel. President Shimon Peres today urged the EU to delay adopting settlement funding bans while Palestinians and Israelis discuss possible peace talks. The EU announced new measures yesterday that ban cooperation with and financial assistance to Israeli institutions operating in the occupied territories. The embargo on central EU funding would not take effect until next year and would distinguish between the state of Israel and land captured after the 1967 war. This Week in History This week marks the thirty-fourth anniversary of Saddam Hussein’s assumption to the presidency of Iraq. On July 16, 1979, Saddam Hussein became president after forcing President Ahmed Hassan al-Bakr to resign. Bakr had been working with Syrian president Hafez al-Assad to bring Iraq and Syria together under one leadership, a move that would have made Assad the deputy of the unified countries, effectively marginalizing Saddam. Six days after deposing al-Bakr, Saddam convened a Ba’ath party meeting of top officials and read a list of dozens of names of his rivals who he claimed were involved in a Syrian plot to take over Iraq. Twenty-one people, including five cabinet ministers, were then gunned down by a death squad; hundreds more reportedly died in the purge that consolidated Saddam’s power.

Blog Post by Robert Danin July 18, 2013 Middle East Matters
Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Ending Gaza’s Isolation

The United States treats Gaza as a pariah, supporting its isolation in an effort to undermine Hamas. This approach is counterproductive. Isolating Gaza only strengthens Hamas' grip, perpetuates Palestinian political stagnation, and helps preclude the creation of a Palestinian state and peace with Israel. Reconnecting Gaza with the West Bank politically and economically, and reestablishing legitimate nationwide institutions, is necessary for an enduring Israeli-Palestinian diplomatic agreement. The Obama administration should encourage an end to Gaza's economic isolation, national elections, and the formation of a regional contact group to promote Palestinian reconciliation. This does not mean ending Hamas' diplomatic isolation, but instead creating conditions to empower Palestinian leaders looking to make peace. The Problem Current U.S. policy supports Gaza's de facto economic and political isolation, which was imposed originally to delegitimize and undermine Hamas' leadership. It was believed that cutting Gaza off while producing positive economic and political change in the West Bank would lead Gazans to overturn Hamas rule. Instead, Hamas' control grew tighter and Israel effectively abandoned the objective of regime change after it invaded Gaza in 2009, fearing ensuing chaos if Hamas was ousted. However, the United States endeavors to broker peace between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) as if Gaza and Hamas do not exist. Ignoring Gaza while pursuing peace with Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas further incentivizes Hamas to oppose peace with Israel and any deal its Palestinian adversaries conclude. Hamas will likely increase violence the closer Israel and the PLO get to any agreement, making the U.S. goal of comprehensive Israeli-Palestinian peace more difficult. Meanwhile, the absence of links between Gaza and the West Bank pushes them economically and socially apart, further challenging the viability of a unitary Palestinian state. Both Israel and Egypt, even under the former Morsi government, have kept their borders largely closed to trade with Gaza because each would like the other party to assume responsibility. Though Israel allows limited imports into Gaza, the economy of Gaza largely relies on illicit trade that flourishes via an alternative "tunnel economy." Hamas enriches itself at the expense of the Palestinian Authority (PA) by collecting tolls from tunnel operators and import taxes on goods brought into Gaza. This second economy increases ordinary Gazans' reliance on Hamas rule, which most would prefer to see end. Gaza's isolation from the West Bank has also undermined the PA by rendering impossible the agreements on long-overdue presidential and parliamentary elections or convocation of the Palestinian parliament. This weakens the PA's popular mandate and ability to make concessions in negotiations with Israel. The U.S. approach to Gaza's rulers has further unintended consequences. Washington, along with the other members of the Quartet (the United Nations, European Union, and Russia), rightly calls on Hamas to recognize Israel, renounce violence, and adopt the PLO's previous agreements as conditions to be met before there can be diplomatic contact. Yet this effectively subcontracts Washington's Hamas diplomacy to countries that support Hamas' Islamist agenda, such as Turkey and Qatar. These parties impede the U.S. goals of Palestinian state-building and peacemaking, not to mention combating Islamist extremism. A Gaza Reintegration Strategy The United States should recognize the self-defeating nature of isolating Gaza and shift to a strategy that reconnects Gaza with the West Bank socially, economically, and politically to lessen Hamas' grip on Gaza and thereby prepare Palestinian institutions for elections. Such a reintegration strategy would require taking the following four steps: Together with Israel and other regional partners, U.S. secretary of state John Kerry should encourage Israel and the PA to reestablish trade links with Gaza. Israel should expand the amount of trade allowed from its territory, and also reopen trade from the West Bank. Moreover, Gazans should be allowed to open an export corridor through Israel, subject to the same security measures already in place for imports. Allowing goods to flow between Gaza and the West Bank will reorient Gaza's economy away from illicit trade with Egypt and strengthen the moderate middle class. It would also help most Palestinian economic sectors, thereby reducing the PA's need for U.S. economic aid. Secretary Kerry should encourage Israel to work with the PA to reestablish the suspended transit corridor for Palestinians to travel between the West Bank and Gaza. Allowing Gazans to visit the West Bank and vice versa will allow for the exchange of ideas and help restore the social bonds of a single national consciousness required for statehood. Secretary Kerry should quietly promote an exclusively regional contact group to help steer a Palestinian election process. This would require some political reconciliation and strengthen the Palestinians for negotiations. An ad hoc group would be composed of those countries already friendly with Hamas (Turkey, Qatar, and Egypt), plus countries (Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia) more likely to take into account the Fatah-dominated PA's views and help advance reconciliation on more moderate terms. This approach would offer Hamas future participation in Palestinian politics and regional diplomacy as a result of moderation and reconciliation without providing greater political stature or violating the Quartet's conditions for negotiation. It would allow Palestinian leaders to negotiate peace with Israel while maintaining a dialogue that could temper Hamas' active opposition. The State Department should lead a concerted effort with European diplomatic partners and appropriate nongovernmental organizations to help the PA prepare for Palestinian national elections. The Palestinians have not held national elections since 2006, and governing institutions required for statehood are losing legitimacy as a result. Both Fatah and Hamas claim to want elections, though neither is acting to promote them. The contact group would help generate momentum and help prepare for an active election campaign. The first step would be to encourage both sides to make their existing agreement on elections more precise and establish a period for a campaign cycle and a specific date for a vote. Any new PA elections would need to be rooted in firm understandings that the participants subscribe to the principles that established those institutions, namely, those of the 1993 Israeli-Palestinian joint recognition agreements. Potential Objections The Israeli government and some in the United States will object that these proposals unjustifiably reward or open the door to even greater interaction with Hamas. Yet these measures provide a way to break a Gaza stalemate that benefits Hamas, not a means to legitimize the terrorist group. While changing current policies poses risk, the greater and more certain danger is in perpetuating a status quo that benefits Hamas. The new approach will weaken Hamas by reducing its control over Gaza's economic life. While Hamas could try to exploit these policy changes to take over the West Bank, the opposite is much more likely: exposure to Hamas has proven the best antidote to its popularity. Hamas has also demonstrated limited capacity to govern, and dissatisfaction with the group in Gaza only grows. It is unlikely to be effective or popular in the West Bank. The Obama administration would need to come to an understanding with Israel and with Congress, but the fact that these proposals reflect policies already adopted de facto by Israel should make this effort easier. Israel quietly acknowledges that blocking imports to Gaza is counterproductive. As part of an agreement reached with Hamas that was negotiated by Egypt, Israel has loosened some import restrictions on Gaza, further legitimizing the practice of dealing with Hamas via third parties, as proposed with the contact group. The Obama administration will need to root these policy changes in a larger private understanding with Israel that the goal is to strengthen moderate Palestinians, who would then be better positioned to make peace. It will be critical to stress that there would be no dilution of the conditions blocking direct contact between the United States and Hamas. Hamas will not like any effort that undermines its control of Gaza, but it cannot openly object to renewed economic ties. The contact group may be able to convince Hamas otherwise, as Hamas' continued refusal to participate would likely result in further loss of domestic support and increased isolation from the organization's few regional allies. Conclusions If the status quo endures, Gaza and the West Bank will continue to drift apart, making it harder to realize the U.S. goal of peace between Israel and a unified Palestinian state in the territories occupied in 1967. The proposed measures alone will not produce an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement or a democratic Palestinian state, nor will they end internal Palestinian divisions. But without these steps, realization of U.S. objectives is impossible. Implementing these new policy steps would infuse a sense of dynamism into Palestinian national life, renew moribund national institutions, and produce demonstrable movement toward Palestinian national goals. This would in turn lay the groundwork for the Palestinians to negotiate a durable peace with Israel. A resolution of the Gaza issue would also remove one flashpoint in a region that is already boiling as a result of the Arab uprisings.

Policy Innovation Memorandum by Robert Danin July 17, 2013 Middle East Program
United States

Middle East Matters This Week: Upheaval in Egypt and Syria

Significant Developments Egypt. The Muslim Brotherhood vowed today to continue resisting the army’s July 3 ouster of President Mohammad Morsi. The Brotherhood issued its call one day after the military-appointed government ordered the arrest of several members of the Brotherhood’s senior leadership--including its spiritual guide Mohammed Badie--for allegedly inciting violent clashes with the military outside the Republican Guard headquarters on Monday. At least fifty-one protestors were killed and hundreds more wounded when Egyptian soldiers opened fire on Morsi supporters on Monday. Interim president Adly Mansour on Tuesday named Hazem el-Beblawi prime minister and Mohamed ElBaradei, former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, vice president. Mansour also issued a declaration establishing a committee of ten jurists to propose a package of constitutional amendments in one month. These amendments would then be reviewed for two months by a group of fifty representatives before going to a popular referendum a month later. Under the announced timetable, Parliamentary elections would then take place within the next month, with a new parliament then able to issue a call for new presidential elections. The Muslim Brotherhood immediately rejected Mansour’s timetable, while the National Salvation Front and Tamarod campaign have both voiced disapproval. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait pledged a combined total of $12 billion in assistance to Egypt’s new government on Tuesday. Syria. President Bashar al-Assad, in an interview earlier today, accused Baath party leaders that were removed in a reshuffle this week of making major mistakes while in office. It was the party’s first reshuffle since 2005. The Baath party announced sixteen new leaders on Tuesday, with Assad remaining secretary general. Vice President Farouq al-Sharaa, the only top official willing to compromise with the opposition, was removed from the party leadership. The Syrian National Coalition elected Ahmad Assi Jarba as its new president in a tight run-off on Saturday. However its prime minister Ghassan Hitto resigned from his post Monday, citing his inability to form an interim government. The Syrian National Coalition yesterday denied Russian allegations of sarin gas use in Aleppo as the United Nations accepted the Syrian government’s invitation for senior officials to visit Syria to discuss chemical weapons’ use, a UN spokesperson said yesterday. Activists on Tuesday alleged that the Syrian army’s continuous bombardment of Homs had created a “critical humanitarian situation” with an acute shortage of medical supplies. Syrian rebels meanwhile tightened their siege on government-controlled districts of Aleppo, curtailing supply lines and drawing criticism from both rebel supporters and opponents for disrupting preparations for Ramadan. U.S. Foreign Policy Egypt. President Obama directed the Pentagon to review U.S. aid to Egypt today after leading members of Congress urged him to reconsider the $1.3 billion aid package following the military ouster of Egypt’s president, Mohammad Morsi. Administration lawyers are working to determine whether the takeover should be considered a coup, which would trigger automatic suspension of most American funding to Egypt. “I’ll be blunt — this is an incredibly complex and difficult situation,” White House press secretary Jay Carney said on Monday. “There are significant consequences that go along with this determination, and it is a highly charged issue for millions of Egyptians who have different views about what happened. It would not be in the best interests of the United States to immediately change our assistance program to Egypt.” Syria. Vice President Joe Biden and Secretary of State John Kerry urged members of Congress to support for White House plans to send arms to Syrian rebels, officials said Tuesday. Members of the House and Senate intelligence committees reportedly remain divided on the month-old Administration proposal to send light weapons and ammunition to anti-Assad insurgents. So far, U.S. arms shipments have not been sent. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Lebanon. A bomb detonated in a mostly Shiite suburb of Beirut on Tuesday injured over fifty people, fueling concerns that Syria’s sectarian strife was further spilling over into Lebanon’s capital. The explosion occurred in the Bir al-Abed area, a stronghold of the Shiite Hezbollah group that has increasingly been intervening in the Syrian war on the side of President Bashar al-Assad. Sunni militants were widely suspected of the attack. Turkey. Gezi Park, the site of protests last month, reopened on Tuesday after a night of clashes between police and protestors. "We are continuing the 20-year-old tradition of Gezi Park Iftar dinners," local mayor Ahmet Misbah Demircan said. "All the people of Istanbul are invited." Police fired teargas and water cannon at protestors in an attempt to prevent them from entering the park on Monday night. Iraq. Insurgents launched two days of deadly assaults in Anbar province, killing at least sixteen people. Militants attacked a police station in Anbar’s provincial capital Ramadi today, leaving two policemen dead. Gunmen overran an Iraqi army checkpoint and police trailer in Anbar province yesterday and killed fourteen security personnel. Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday named his close adviser, Ron Dermer, to be Israel’s next ambassador to the United States. “Ron Dermer has all the qualities necessary to successfully fill this important post,” Netanyahu said in a statement announcing the appointment. “I have known him for many years, and I know that Ron will faithfully represent the State of Israel in the capital of our greatest ally – the U.S.” Dermer, like Israel’s current ambassador, Michel Oren, was born and raised in the United States. Morocco. Five of six ministers from the minority conservative Istiqlal party resigned on Tuesday, purportedly due to a dispute over subsidy cuts and economy policy. If King Mohamed accepts their resignations, then the leading Islamist Justice and Development party will either have to find a new coalition partner or hold early elections. This Week in History This week marks the fifty-first anniversary of Algeria’s independence from France. On July 5, 1962, the Algerian Provisional Government proclaimed the country’s national Independence, 132 years to the day following France’s original invasion and occupation. In November 1954, the National Liberation Front (FLN) launched what would be a bitter eight-year conflict pitting the French army against Algerian guerilla fighters and rebels. Algeria was considered a vital part of France and contained over a million European settlers—pieds noirs—further intensifying the conflict. The war ended in March 1962 in a peace agreement, with French control of Algeria ended roughly four months later when French president Charles de Gaulle officially recognized Algerian independence.

Blog Post by Robert Danin July 12, 2013 Middle East Matters