Israel

Significant Developments Palestinian Unity. The Israeli cabinet voted unanimously to suspend peace talks with the Palestinian Authority today because of the unity agreement announced yesterday between Fatah and Hamas. Rejecting the notion of negotiating with a government “backed by Hamas,” prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, “Whoever chooses the terrorism of Hamas does not want peace.” The deadline for the completion of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations set nine months ago by Secretary of State Kerry expires on April 29. See my analysis of the Palestinian reconciliation agreement in my blog post from yesterday. Qatar-GCC. In the first public comments by a Qatari official on last week’s agreement in Riyadh to end months of tension within the GCC, Qatari foreign minister Khalid bin Mohamed Al-Attiyah denied yesterday that Doha had made any concessions. While the details of the agreement have not been made public, there has been speculation that it included a Qatari agreement to tone down Al Jazeera’s coverage and to deport members of the Muslim Brotherhood. The dispute between Qatar and its neighbors escalated last month when Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE withdrew their ambassadors from Doha. Syria.  Maher Abdul-Hafiz Hajjar, a member of Syria’s People’s Assembly, yesterday became the first candidate to register to run in the June 3 presidential election called by the Syrian government on Monday. While President Bashar al-Assad is expected to run and win, more than one candidate must be on the ballot. Hajjar’s registration comes as rebels in Homs are reportedly making one last stand against regime forces launching a full-fledged assault on the city. With Homs expected to fall, opposition activists are torn between fleeing, surrendering, or fighting; Abu Rami, an activist, said that, “We can lose an area, and we can regain it. But the most important thing is not to kneel.” Meanwhile, Ahmet Uzumcu, head of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapon (OPCW) said today that he is considering an investigation into reports of a chemical weapon attack earlier this month in the village of Kfar Zeita. On Monday, White House spokesman Jay Carney announced that the United States is examining allegations that the Syrian regime was responsible for the attack and said that once the facts have been established, “we can talk about what reaction, if any, or response, if any, there would be from the international community.” Syria has pledged to hand over the remaining 7.5 percent of its chemical weapons stockpile that it has declared to the OPCW by the end of this week. U.S. Foreign Policy Egypt. The United States plans to deliver ten Apache helicopters to Egypt, thereby easing the military aid suspension imposed after the Egyptian military overthrew President Morsi in July. U.S. defense secretary Chuck Hagel informed Egyptian defense minister Sedki Sobhi of the decision in a phone call on Tuesday, April 29. The move comes after Secretary of State John Kerry certified to Congress that Egypt met key criteria, including upholding its obligations under the peace treaty with Israel, to resume some aid. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Oman-Algeria. Hackers targeted the website of Oman’s official news agency on Sunday in an attempt to criticize the opaque environment surrounding Algerian president Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s re-election last week. The hackers fabricated a news story about a letter from Sultan Qaboos of Oman to Bouteflika, describing him as a “handicapped” leader of a “dictatorship.” Oman News Agency later apologized to its clients for the hack. Last Friday, Bouteflika won a fourth term with more than 80 percent of the vote after the opposition unsuccessfully called for a general boycott of the elections. He cast his vote while sitting in a wheelchair, raising further doubts about his health status since suffering a stroke last year. Libya. Libya’s Constituent Assembly convened on Sunday to begin drafting a new constitution in Al-Baida on Monday. The special body has 120 days to draft a constitution. Meanwhile, the Libyan Parliament heard from the seven candidates on Sunday who are looking to succeed Abdullah al-Thani in his post as prime minister after he announced his resignation on April 13. The three prospective frontrunners appear to be Omar al-Hassi, from Benghazi, Mohammad Buker, former director of the civil state department, and Ahmad Miitig, a Libyan businessman. The election date has yet to be set. Kuwait. The Kuwaiti official news agency announced on Sunday that it had temporarily suspended publication of the Al Watan and Alam Al Yawm  newspapers for violating a prosecutor-ordered media blackout over an alleged coup plot. Waleed al-Jassim, the deputy editor of Al Watan, said that he is going to contest the ruling. Yemen. According to a spokesperson for the Yemeni embassy in Washington yesterday, the Yemeni government will make cash payments to the families of three civilians killed in airstrikes over the weekend. The series of strikes on Sunday and Monday reportedly targeted an al Qaeda training camp and killed fifty-five militants.

Hamas and Fatah have once again reached an agreement to overcome their split, claiming they will form a unity government within five weeks and hold general elections by December. There is little reason to believe that the unity agreement reached today in Gaza between Hamas and Fatah is any more credible, or stands any better chance of implementation, than the previous failed unity agreements between the two parties penned in Cairo and Doha. The fundamental issues that divide them remain: Hamas is interested in an Islamist agenda while Fatah opposes it. Hamas opposes a two-state peace solution to the conflict with Israel while Fatah supports it. Moreover, Hamas is loath to relinquish control of Gaza, and Fatah has no interest in sharing the West Bank with its political adversary. Both Fatah and Hamas have an interest right now in demonstrating efforts to seek unity, even if they never implement such an agreement. The idea of unity is very popular with a Palestinian public largely disenchanted with both Hamas and Fatah. That Palestinian elections have not been held since 2006 erodes both parties’ legitimacy and reinforces a popular image of Fatah and Hamas as more interested in power and its benefits than in delivering political or economic benefits to their people. For Hamas, unity efforts may give the group a political bounce at a time when the organization (and all of Gaza) is hurting from unprecedented Egyptian efforts on the ground to squeeze Hamas. Yet with Islamist parties on the defensive throughout the Middle East right now, why would Abbas agree to share power with his arch rivals and risk alienating potential Arab patrons who seek the destruction of the Muslim Brotherhood and their offshoots such as Hamas? For Abbas, talking to Hamas about unity when it is unlikely to be implemented is tactically attractive. In addition to its popularity, focusing on domestic politics right now by talking to Hamas can help deflect attention from negotiations with Israel that are likely to collapse by the end of this month. Abbas knows that moving forward on his stated intention to seek further international recognition for Palestine should the peace efforts fail could prove painful to him and the Palestinian people. Israel is likely to take punitive actions on the ground, and many international donors will probably withhold financial assistance as well as political support. Pursuing unity talks with Hamas can pivot Palestinian politics towards a domestic agenda away from the international one. When Hamas later fails to sign on to Abbas’ terms for unity or rejects allowing the PLO to retake control of Gaza, the Palestinian president can blame Hamas for thwarting efforts and Palestinian elections. At the same time, Abbas may also calculate that flirting with Hamas puts pressure on Israel to compromise in Secretary of State Kerry’s last-ditch efforts to keep negotiations going past the April 29 expiration deadline. Abbas may think that Netanyahu will want to keep the Palestinians from moving to a rejectionist stance in the absence of peace talks. If that is Abbas’ intention, it is likely to backfire. Rather than prompting Israelis to make endgame concessions to reach a deal right now, Abbas’ flirting with Hamas is more likely to provoke Netanyahu to point a finger at Abbas and say that the Palestinians are to blame for thwarting Kerry’s efforts, and that Abbas is really no partner for genuine peace. Netanyahu could choose to ignore the unity talks and diminish their significance while betting on their likely failure. But that would provide further ammunition to his political critics on the right. Moreover, Palestinian unity efforts make it all the more certain that Abbas will not budge on the one issue of primacy to Israeli negotiators—that the Palestinians recognize Israel as the nation-state of the Jewish people. It remains theoretically possible, though highly unlikely, that this time will be different, and that Hamas and Fatah will both see enough benefit in making fundamental compromises that would produce a mutually acceptable interim government leading to new elections. Failing that, the ensuing talks to cobble together a unity government will likely replace one set of fruitless talks—those between Israel and the Palestinians—with another set of negotiations with similarly poor prospects for realization.

Significant Developments Syria. Regime fighters reportedly made significant progress against opposition forces in Homs this week, as Syrian military forces began entering rebel districts on Monday, stepping up one of the strongest bombardments in months. Homs is considered the last main opposition stronghold in central Syria. Meanwhile, the Syrian regime and opposition representatives traded new accusations of using chemical weapons in an attack on the village of Kfar Zeita last Friday. U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Samantha Power, responded to reports of a chlorine gas attack on Sunday, saying, “So far it’s unsubstantiated…we will do everything in our power to establish what has happened and then consider possible steps in response.” According to the Syrian daily Al-Watan, a date for Syria’s upcoming presidential election will be announced next week by Mohamed Jihad Lahham, the speaker of the parliament. The vote is expected to be held before President Bashar Assad’s current term expires on July 17. On Monday, EU foreign ministers issued a statement calling the electoral process in Syria a “parody of democracy.” Plans to go through with elections were also criticized by U.N.-Arab League negotiator Lakhdar Brahimi, who stated that such a vote would push the opposition away from the negotiating table. A new law requires candidates to have lived in Syria for the previous ten years and hold no other nationality, thus excluding opposition figures in exile. Lebanon. Speaker of the Parliament Nabih Berri announced that parliamentary elections will take place next Wednesday, April 23. The new parliament will then be tasked to elect Lebanon’s new president on May 25 upon the completion of President Michel Sleiman’s term.  Meanwhile, Interior Minister Nouhad Machnouk announced Tuesday that the government will limit the entry of further Syrian refugees into Lebanon. “Syrian refugees are our guests, but the Lebanese government does not have the resources and infrastructure to endure their number,” Machnouk said as he announced that plans are being prepared to reduce the number of future Syrian refugees. According to the minister, 27 percent of the current total population in Lebanon is Syrian. Jordan. Jordanian warplanes destroyed three vehicles yesterday attempting to cross into the country from Syria. The Jordanian military did not provide specifics about the targeted vehicles, although the Syrian government released a statement saying that the vehicles did not belong to the Syrian military. The strike was the first open Jordanian use of military aircraft along its northern border since the Syrian conflict erupted. Saudi Arabia. The official Saudi Press Agency reported on Tuesday that Intelligence chief Prince Bandar bin Sultan stepped down from his post, a move that has been rumored for weeks. The decision was announced in a royal decree that also named General Youssef al-Idrissi Saudi Arabia’s new acting Intelligence chief. Bandar had been appointed to the position in July 2012 and ran Saudi Arabia’s Syria policy until Interior Minister Prince Mohammed Nayef al-Saud took it over earlier this year in February. U.S. Foreign Policy Iran. The IAEA reported in its monthly update released today that Iran is complying with the interim nuclear deal struck by Iran and the P5+1 countries last November. Tehran expects to receive a fifth tranche of funds that were previously frozen overseas by the end of this week. Iranian President Rouhani said on Tuesday, “If it goes on with the same trend, the final agreement could be reached within six months.”  However, General Hossein Dehghan on Wednesday said that Iran’s ballistic missiles are not open to discussion , rebuffing earlier comments by State Department nuclear negotiator Wendy Sherman, who has said Iran’s missile program should be addressed as part of an agreement with Iran. Meanwhile, Tehran formally protested the U.S. refusal to grant Iran’s proposed new UN ambassador, Hamid Aboutalebi, a visa to enter the United States. Washington had officially declined the visa request since Aboutalebi worked as a translator for the group responsible for the 1979 hostage crisis in Tehran. The Iranians claim that the United States has breached the U.S.-UN Host Country Agreement by denying the visa. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Israel-Palestine. Israeli and Palestinian negotiators are scheduled to meet today with U.S. envoy Martin Indyk, after their most recent scheduled meeting was postponed. Israeli sources claimed the meeting was postponed after an Israeli officer was killed near Hebron on Monday while driving with his family; Palestinian sources said the meeting was delayed so that Indyk could participate. Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu blamed the Palestinian leadership for the killing, stating that, “assassination is the result of the incitement to hatred by Palestinian Authority leaders who continue to peddle hate-filled material against Israel.” Earlier this week, Israeli foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman announced that secret talks were being held between Israel and “moderate” Arab states. In his announcement on Monday, Lieberman argued that the Iranian regional threat had mitigated anti-Israeli sentiment and stated that, “We will have a situation in which we have full diplomatic relations with most of the moderate Arab states…and you can count on my word.” GCC. A Jordanian official announced on Tuesday that Morocco and Jordan had been formally invited by the Gulf Cooperation Council to create a military alliance in late March. The agreement, which is currently under consideration by the two governments, aims to address the shortage of manpower in the GCC; Morocco and Jordan would bring 300,000 troops in exchange for financial aid from the Gulf countries. The GCC and Jordan and Morocco reportedly agreed to a framework for a strategic partnership over a year ago. Algeria. More than twenty-two million Algerians will head to the polls today to choose the next Algerian head of state. While incumbent President Bouteflika seeks a fourth term and is widely expected to win the upcoming elections while the leading opponent, former prime minister Ali Benflis, hopes for an unlikely last-minute comeback. Campaigning ended last Sunday after Bouteflika accused Benflis of “terrorism through television” for making statements about possible electoral frauds. Libya. Jordan’s ambassador to Libya, Fawaz al-Aitan, was kidnapped by gunmen on Tuesday, according to an announcement made by Libya’s foreign ministry. The kidnappers called the ambassador’s wife following the abduction and told her that al-Aitan was in good health. Al-Aitan was the first Arab ambassador to be posted in Libya after the revolution. Turkey. A delegation of Twitter executives met with government representatives this week to discuss the future of social media access in the country after Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan dubbed it “the worst menace to society.” While the government presented a long list of demands, including the establishment of a Turkish company office and the company’s revelation of certain users. Twitter reportedly agreed to make certain posts invisible to domestic Turkish audiences. Bahrain. Eleven Shiite demonstrators were sentenced to five years in jail following a clash with police forces last year near the capital. This is the last case in a long series of arrests of Shiites following the February 2011 unrest. Kuwait. According to speaker of the parliament Marzouk al-Ghanem, Kuwaiti prime minister al-Sabah said videotapes showing alleged senior former officials organizing a coup were “tampered with.” Kuwait’s information ministry announced a gag order this week barring any statements to the media regarding an ongoing investigation into the existence of a videotape that allegedly contains sensitive information about former prime minister Sheikh Nasser Al Mohammed Al Ahmad Al Sabah and Jasem Al Khorafi, the former speaker of the parliament. Egypt. Egypt’s former defense minister Abdel Fattah al-Sisi submitted eight times the amount of signatures required to the election commission on Monday, finalizing his presidential candidacy. Al-Sisi’s likely rival is Hamdeen Sabahi, who came in third during the first round of 2012 elections eventually won by Morsi.

“They call it aid, but I don’t consider it aid…I consider it buying time and giving people the illusion that there is aid when really there is not.” –Brigadier General Asaad al-Zoabi, a Syrian fighter pilot who defected and joined the opposition “Businessmen in this country have sucked the blood of the people–and the one who is responsible is Abdel Fattah al-Sissi.” –Ahmed Mahmoud, head of the Cairo branch of the Independent Union for Public Transport Workers “I think that if [Palestinian political prisoner] Marwan Barghouti is released from prison and runs against Abu Fadi [Mohammed Dahlan], then Barghouti will win. This is because people are emotional, and they sympathize with pure people. They will say that he has not been stained with problems, and they will think that he is better than Abu Fadi. But when they try him, they will regret their choice.” –Jalila Dahlan, wife of former Fatah security chief Mohammed Dahlan “We want to transfer Kurdistan’s experience to the rest of Iraq, not have the Kurdistan Region separate from Iraq.” –Khamis Khanjar, a Sunni businessman who is heading a new Sunni alliance dedicated to preventing Iraqi president Nouri al-Maliki from gaining a third term “She knows the president is surrounded by wolves, and she is trying to get closer to him in order to unmask them.” –Abdelkader, an Algerian taxi driver speaking about Louisa Hanoun, the only female candidate in Algeria’s presidential election “Our cause is just. They are mercenaries from Chechnya, Yemen and Libya who want to overthrow Bashar al-Assad, who supported us enormously during the 2006 war against Israel…It’s our duty to help him.” –Mahmud, a vegetable vendor and a Hezbollah fighter recently returned from Syria “We are a movement that refuses to let Israel go unpunished when it attacks our people, and we believe that becoming part of the ruling authority would be catastrophic. That’s the secret behind why more people are supporting us.” –Khader Habib, a Palestinian Islamic Jihad official

Secretary of State John Kerry abruptly cancelled his Middle East shuttle diplomacy yesterday less than a month before his self-imposed deadline for concluding an Israeli-Palestinian peace treaty. The New York Times leads today with a quote from a senior Obama administration official saying, “Mr. Kerry’s decision not to return to the region immediately reflected a growing impatience in the White House, which believes that his mediating efforts have reached their limit and that the two sides need to work their way out of the current impasse.” If true, it would mean that the White House had cut the legs out from its lead diplomat just as he was trying to avert a complete meltdown of the U.S.-initiated high-stakes diplomatic process. It followed a dramatic day in which Kerry had thrown a diplomatic ‘Hail Mary’ designed to keep the fledgling negotiations from collapsing entirely. While the details of Kerry’s most recent proposal remain sketchy, it seems to entail a package of measures that would include an agreement by both parties to remain in negotiations, Israel to proceed with its overdue release of a batch of Palestinian prisoners promised at the onset of this recent Kerry diplomatic chapter, an additional Israeli release of Palestinian prisoners, some limit to settlement activity, a Palestinian suspension of their threat to activate their membership in the United Nations, and as the news-grabbing sweetener, the U.S. release of Jonathan Pollard, imprisoned for spying on the United States for Israel. The situation became even more complicated when Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas last night announced he was taking concrete steps to join fifteen international agencies, though U.S. officials suggested that this move was a negotiating ploy and not an effort to undermine the secretary of state’s efforts. As Kerry worked feverishly to salvage the process he initiated last summer, why would the White House turn it off lest it end in a blaze of recriminations, an absence of a back-up plan, and a distinctly possible resort to violence on the ground? One reason may be that as the day progressed, and the voices opposed to the Pollard-for-more-peace-process grew louder (both the Republican and Democratic heads of the Senate Intelligence Committee came out against it), the White House decided that the Kerry proposal was too costly to support. Had Kerry not coordinated his ideas with the White House before floating them with the parties? The White House suspension of Kerry’s efforts may simply be a tactical move designed to force Israelis and Palestinians to stew a bit and ponder the cost of a failed peace process. Such a calculation, that the two sides need to work their way out of the current impasse, is conceptually flawed. Israelis and Palestinians have repeatedly demonstrated that they cannot find a way to “work their way out” by themselves. Indeed, the whole logic of Kerry’s involvement was based on this assessment and of the need for a third-party facilitator. However justified the criticisms of Secretary of State Kerry’s approach, the Obama administration, having launched this high profile effort at comprehensive peace, cannot simply disown its own initiative just as it appears to be on the verge of collapse. In the past month, the president himself hosted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas, and other Middle East officials at the White House, signaling that this peace effort was the administration’s and not simply John Kerry’s. As its patron, the United States has a responsibility, at a minimum, to find a soft landing for its fledgling effort. A free fall now would be self-imposed, and would jeopardize the serious and constructive Israeli-Palestinian economic and security cooperative efforts underway on the ground. It could rapidly lead to major diplomatic fighting in international bodies, such as the United Nations and at the International Criminal Court. The center of gravity within Palestinian circles could quickly shift towards radicals and renewed violent efforts at “resistance.” Israel would surely take punitive measures against the Palestinian Authority, withholding tax revenues that help pay salaries, limiting access and movement of Palestinians, and stepping up its military footprint in the West Bank. Having repeatedly made the argument since last summer that such moves would be catastrophic, the United States owes it to the people of the Middle East not to be the party that helps bring about this disastrous outcome.

Significant Developments Egypt. Field Marshal and Defense Minister Abdel Fattah al-Sisi yesterday resigned from the military and announced his candidacy for president. Ibrahim Munir, a member of the political bureau of the Muslim Brotherhood, declared in response to the announcement that al-Sisi is “a man who has killed daily since the coup” and that “there can be no stability or security under the shadow of Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in the presidency.” The move comes just days before nominations are scheduled to begin on Sunday. Thus far only one other candidate, Hamdeen Sabbahi who came in third in the 2012 presidential election, has declared his intention to enter the race. Meanwhile, protests erupted across Egypt yesterday against the mass trials earlier this week of Morsi supporter. On Monday, an Egyptian court sentenced 529 people to death in the largest mass death sentencing in Egypt’s history, followed the next day by the beginning of a second mass trial of 682 alleged Muslim Brotherhood supporters, including Muslim Brotherhood supreme guide Mohamed Badie. Yesterday, Egypt’s chief prosecutor ordered two new mass trials for 919 suspected Morsi supporters. U.S. secretary of state John Kerry expressed his concern yesterday saying that he is “deeply, deeply troubled” and that anything short of a reversal of the ruling would “dishonor the bravery of all who sacrificed their lives for democratic values.” Arab League. A two-day summit of Arab leaders concluded in Kuwait yesterday without issuing a final communiqué. However, a closing declaration was read, rejecting recognizing Israel as a Jewish state and calling for a Syrian political settlement. The conference barely masked increasingly deepening differences, particularly among Gulf countries, over how to deal with Islamists in the region. Tensions were particularly acute over Qatar’s support of Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood and Saudi Arabia’s position on the Syrian conflict. One diplomat noted that, “Behind closed doors there is tension, but it’s all under the table, no confrontation was made ([in public].” Turkey-Syria. Turkish foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu warned this Wednesday that threats against Turkish national security will be met by military action, including possible cross-border operations. The warning came several days after the Turkish military shot down a Syrian fighter plane that had allegedly entered the country’s airspace on Sunday. The downing was announced by Erdogan at a political campaign rally that same afternoon, leading to a further escalation of tensions between the Syrian regime and the Turkish government. Meanwhile, an Ankara administrative court overturned a ban on Twitter yesterday that the government imposed last week. U.S. Foreign Policy Saudi Arabia. President Obama will meet King Abdullah in Riyadh on Friday in what has been described as an attempt to reassure the monarchy following U.S. efforts to strike a deal with Iran. Last week, Deputy National Security Adviser Ben Rhodes described the visit as “an important opportunity to invest in one of our most important relationships in the Middle East.” Obama and Abdullah are expected to discuss U.S. support for Gulf security, support for the Syrian opposition, the peace process, and Iran. Israel-Palestine. Secretary of State John Kerry met with Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas for a four hour working dinner last night in Amman in an attempt to keep the peace process alive. The sudden visit comes at a critical point in Israeli-Palestinian negotiations and over an expected release of Palestinian prisoners. Israel is scheduled to release the final tranche of prisoners tomorrow, however, key leadership figures in the Israeli government have protested against the last release claiming that the Palestinian have not followed through on their commitment to nine months of negotiations. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Syria. The New York Times reported on Tuesday that CIA director John Brennan recently told a House panel that he is concerned that al-Qaeda operatives and planners from Pakistan and Afghanistan are trying to set up launching pads in Syria. Meanwhile, new clashes between Syrian rebel forces and the Syrian military took place yesterday near the coastal town of Latakia. The town, home to the Alawite minority of Syria, has been the target of a five-day assault by rebels from Islamist groups including the Nusra Front. Yemen. Twenty-two soldiers were killed by militants in southeastern Yemen on Monday. The attack consisted of a suicide car bomb and then a raid on a security checkpoint. Yemeni Minster of the Interior later said that three senior security officers have been temporarily suspended as authorities begin their investigations on the assault. Iraq. Pressures for electoral reform began mounting in Iraq after polling chiefs submitted their resignation yesterday in protest of parliamentary and judicial interference. Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki will seek his third term in the election, which is currently scheduled for April 30. Libya. The trial of Seif al-Islam and Saadi Qaddafi, two of General Muammar Qaddafi’s sons, is scheduled to begin on April 16. They are among a group of more than thirty officials standing trial on a variety of charges including murder, crimes against humanity, and embezzlement of funds. Libya’s General National Congress amended the Libyan criminal code on Sunday to allow al-Islam to “attend” his trial in Tripoli via video-link. Seif is currently held by a militia in Zintan, which has previously refused to transfer him to Tripoli over concern that remnants of Qaddafi’s regime in the judiciary system might declare him innocent. Bahrain. Twenty-nine Shiites were jailed in Bahrain on Wednesday for an April 2012 attack on a police center. The defense claimed that their confessions were obtained under duress and through torture tactics.

Significant Developments Israeli-Palestinian Peace.  President Barack Obama met with Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas at the White House on Monday. The two leaders discussed the April 29 deadline set by the United States for a framework agreement. Obama told reporters at the top of the meeting that risks would have to be taken if progress is to be made. In the meeting, Abbas reportedly requested the release of Marwan Barghouti, one of the most senior prisoners held by Israel, as one way to possibly extend the talks. Chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat noted on Tuesday that “the meeting was difficult and the meeting was long” and that it did not produce an official American proposal. Thousands of Palestinian Fatah supports rallied in the West Bank on Monday in support of Abbas. Meanwhile, Israel is slated to release the fourth and final tranche of “pre-Oslo prisoners” by March 29 as part of an agreement brokered when this latest round of peace talks was launched last summer. On Tuesday, Israeli justice minister Tzipi Livni linked the last prisoner release to progress in the talks: “In order to advance serious negotiations, we will all need to take decisions and prove we are determined to reach an agreement and real peace. That burden of proof is also on the Palestinians’ shoulders.” The Palestinians say they will abandon the talks if Israel does not release the last group of prisoners. Until now 78 of 104 Palestinian prisoners have been released by Israel. Libya. Libyan militia leader Ibrahim Jathran accused the United States on Tuesday of behaving like “pirates” after U.S. naval forces seized an oil tanker on Sunday in the eastern Mediterranean that was seeking buyers for illicit Libyan oil. Libya’s government thanked the United States for seizing and returning the tanker and preventing rebel militia from gaining control of Libyan oil. Jathran heads an eastern militia that has blockaded three of Libya’s key oil-exporting ports for the last eight months in a bid for autonomy in eastern Libya. The lack of control of oil revenues led Libya’s parliament to pass a vote of no-confidence in Prime Minister Ali Zeidan last week. Following the vote, Abdullah al-Thinni, the interim defense minister, was appointed acting prime minister. Iran. The second round of talks between Iran and the P5+1 countries on a permanent agreement on Iran’s nuclear program concluded yesterday in Vienna. EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton and Iranian foreign minister Mohammed Javad Zarif called the talks “useful” and announced a third round to be held April 7-9. According to a senior American official, the talks touched on many of the sensitive issues, including uranium enrichment and the heavy-water reactor at Arak. The talks began on January 20 with an objective of reaching a final agreement by July. U.S. Foreign Policy Israel. Israeli defense minister Moshe Yaalon apologized yesterday in a phone call to U.S. secretary of defense Chuck Hagel for comments made on Monday criticizing the United States for demonstrating weakness globally. The apology came after Secretary John Kerry called Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu to complain about Yaalon’s comments. At a Tel Aviv University event, Yaalon was quoted saying, “If you sit and wait at home, the terrorism will come again…This is a war of civilizations. If your image is feebleness, it doesn’t pay in the world.” He also said that U.S. aid to Israel “isn’t a favor America is doing, it’s in their interest.” It is the second time that Yaalon has apologized to the United States for remarks deemed critical of Washington. Syria. Daniel Rubenstein, the new U.S. envoy for Syria, announced the closing of the Syrian embassy in Washington on Tuesday. While not officially breaking diplomatic relations with Syria, Rubenstein said that it is “unacceptable for individuals appointed by that regime to conduct diplomatic or consular operations in the United States.” Syrian diplomats have until the end of March to leave the country. The United States closed its embassy in Damascus in 2012. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Syria. Israel launched air strikes on three Syrian military positions yesterday in response to a roadside bomb that exploded on the Golan Heights Tuesday that injured four Israeli soldiers. Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that, “Our policy is clear. We hurt those who hurt us.” Meanwhile, the OPCW, the Hague-based organization overseeing the elimination of Syria’s chemical weapons, announced yesterday that 45 percent of Syria’s arsenal has been removed from the country. It was the first status update since the deadline was pushed back from February 6 to the end of April. Saudi Arabia. A Saudi court sentenced thirteen people yesterday to prison terms for supporting terrorism and recruiting and helping people travel to Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan to fight. According to the Saudi Press Agency, the thirteen people sentenced included nine Saudis, two Jordanians, an Egyptian, and a Syrian. Earlier in March, Saudi Arabia listed the Muslim Brotherhood and al-Qaeda affiliates in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen as terrorist organizations. Algeria. According to Abdelmalek Sellal, a former prime minister who is currently running President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s reelection campaign, Bouteflika intends to amend Algeria’s constitution to introduce reforms to strengthen democracy if he is reelected next month. According to Human Rights Watch, the Algerian police have arrested protesters to prevent widespread demonstrations during the upcoming presidential elections, scheduled for April 17. Bouteflika is expected to win the election. Egypt. An Egyptian court condemned police officer Lieutenant Colonel Amr Farouk on Tuesday to ten years of prison over the deaths of thirty-seven prisoners. The victims allegedly suffocated from tear gas in a police van during the crackdown on Morsi supporters on August 18, 2013. The decision comes four days after Egyptian security forces stormed two sit-ins organized by supporters of deposed president Morsi in Cairo.

President Barack Obama hosts Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington on Monday. The last time the two leaders met together—September 30, 2013, in the same Oval Office—Obama had big news for the Israeli leader: his administration had been engaged in secret high-level negotiations for the previous seven months with Israel’s most menacing adversary, Iran. The upcoming Israeli-American summit will surely lack such drama. While their conversation will focus on the same two issues that have dominated their nearly five year long dialogue—Iran and peace with the Palestinians—the discussion now will be over major negotiating tactics, not fundamental strategy. President Obama will not spend time trying to keep Israeli aircraft from attacking Iranian nuclear facilities nor will he push Netanyahu to stop settlement activity. For now, the Obama administration is in the driver’s seat, leading negotiations both with Iran and between Israel and the Palestinians. Netanyahu is largely a bystander to one process and a reactive participant in the other. Differences between the United States and Israel have not been removed so much as deferred. Netanyahu will react to Obama; he is not positioned to advocate a wholly different approach on either front. Iran: The fundamental gap between Obama and Netanyahu’s objectives regarding Iran remains: the American leader’s goal is to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, the Israeli objective is to see Iran deprived of the capability to develop a nuclear weapon. But the United States has signed an interim nuclear accord with Tehran in the period since Obama and Netanyahu last met, and negotiations on a comprehensive deal between the P5+1 and Iran are ongoing. Given the now open U.S.-Iranian channel, the Israeli leader will settle, for now, on trying to affect Obama’s negotiating behavior. Israel’s declaratory position is to demand no Iranian enrichment. In recent talks with Israeli officials, lead U.S. negotiator Wendy Sherman suggested that position, while desirable, is unattainable. While Netanyahu will adhere to his public position, in private he is more likely to focus on the types of constraints on Iranian enrichment activity necessary to both detect and prevent an Iranian breakout attempt. Should the negotiations with Iran produce an agreement with ample safeguards, Israel’s planes will likely remain grounded. Israeli-Palestinian peace:  With the Obama administration’s self-imposed deadline of April 2014 for a comprehensive, conflict-ending Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement rapidly approaching, Middle East peace will once again feature prominently in the two leader’s discussions. But expect no dramatic fireworks on this front either. The Obama administration, recognizing that a comprehensive peace treaty will not be signed over the next few months, is now reportedly preparing a “framework agreement” that it will soon present to the Israelis and Palestinians. While this remains a work in progress, with details yet to be outlined publicly, Secretary of State John Kerry is apparently preparing an outline that largely meets Netanyahu’s objectives on two issues of paramount concern to him: recognition of Israel as a Jewish state, and robust security arrangements for Israel as part of a peace agreement. On the area most likely to prove difficult for Netanyahu to agree to at this time—the final status of Jerusalem—the United States is reportedly preparing formulas sufficiently vague so as to be unobjectionable to the Israeli leader or his coalition partners. This effort to remove Israeli negotiating objections is likely to achieve its intended result. The word out of Jerusalem late this week is that Netanyahu will probably accept the U.S. formula, or at least not reject it outright. The prime minister’s coalition partners most likely to oppose significant concessions seem to prefer a U.S. approach that keeps Israeli-Palestinian negotiations going while allowing them to keep their ministerial posts. Hence, the upcoming Obama-Netanyahu Oval Office meeting is likely to end in public professions of friendship and comity. However, such an encounter would then set the stage for a potentially more difficult tete-a-tete when President Obama hosts Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas on March 17. White House officials backgrounded the press this week saying “now is a very timely opportunity for [the president] to get involved.” Yet according to the Palestinian daily al-Quds, Abbas reacted angrily to the American proposals when he met recently with Secretary Kerry in Paris. To be sure, much haggling will likely continue behind the scenes. The March summits with Netanyahu and then Abbas will test whether or not this is indeed a “timely opportunity” for President Obama.

Significant Developments Syria. Russia today presented a draft resolution on Syrian humanitarian aid access that includes a condemnation of “terrorism” to the UN Security Council. Yesterday, Russian deputy foreign minister Gennady Gatilov rejected a proposed resolution on humanitarian aid access drafted by Australia, Jordan, and Luxembourg that demanded “all parties, in particular the Syrian authorities, immediately end the sieges of the Old City of Homs.” Gatilov denounced the Western-backed resolution as an attempt to lay the groundwork for a military strike against Bashar al-Assad’s government if its demands are not met. Meanwhile, the humanitarian ceasefire in Homs was extended for an additional three days today. Over 1400 men, women, and children have been evacuated from besieged parts of Homs since the ceasefire first took effect last Friday. The Syrian opposition presented a plan for a post-war Syria yesterday in Geneva, calling for a transitional governing body that would oversee a total ceasefire under UN monitoring. All foreign fighters would be driven out of Syria under the plan. The opposition’s confidential draft, shown to international mediator Lakhdar Brahimi, made no mention of the fate of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. The Syrian government delegation has not officially responded to the proposal yet, although it has suggested that negotiations need to focus first on fighting terrorism. Syrian deputy foreign minister Faisal Mekdad said that, “We are not closed to discussing any issue. But we have to discuss them one by one.” The exchange came after a discouraging beginning to the second round of talks on Monday. International mediator Lakhdar Brahimi is scheduled to meet with Russian and U.S. officials today in an effort to give new momentum to the talks. Meanwhile, Sigrid Kaag, head of the UN-Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons mission overseeing the dismantling of Syria’s chemical arsenal, has urged the Assad regime to speed up operations. This happened after the government missed two important deadlines in December and early February, leading to western concerns of a deliberate slow-down by the regime. Egypt. Russian president Vladimir Putin today endorsed field marshal Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to become Egypt’s next president. In his first visit outside of Egypt since coming to power in early July, Sisi is visitng Moscow to negotiate a $2 billion arms deal with Russia. According to state-owned al-Ahram, Russia would be the tentative broker of a deal funded mainly by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Meanwhile, the State Department disclosed yesterday that Egyptian authorities have detained a local U.S. embassy employee for almost three weeks without any official charges. American officials say that Ahmed Aleiba, an Egyptian citizen who works for the American embassy was arrested on January 25. According to military-aligned newspaper al-Watan, Aleiba had arranged meetings between U.S. government officials and Muslim Brotherhood deputy head Khairat el-Shater last July. Iran. Iran celebrated the thirty-fifth anniversary of the Islamic Revolution on Tuesday. President Hassan Rouhani told a crowd of tens of thousans of Iranians gathered for celebrations that “Iran will maintain a permanent nuclear program.” Throughout his remarks, Rouhani emphasized a purported absence of a military option against Iran by any western country and called for Iran to move past the internal divisions that emerged following Ahmadinejad’s contested reelection in 2009. His statements came shortly after International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors signaled on Monday their determination to get to the bottom of allegations that Iran may have worked on a nuclear bomb design. Meanwhile, Iranian defense minister Brigadier General Hossein Dehqan announced on Monday the successful test launch of two new missiles, including a long-range missile capable of evading radar. U.S. Foreign Policy Jordan. King Abdullah of Jordan will meet President Obama in California tomorrow. Abdullah met yesterday with Vice President Joe Biden and Congressional leaders during his visit to Washington. According to the White House, Abdullah and Biden discussed achieving a sustainable political solution in Syria. The Jordanian monarch stressed the need for emergency humanitarian access following his meeting with Speaker John Boehner on Tuesday. The bilateral discussions are part of an administration outreach effort to Arab allies that also includes a visit by President Obama to Saudi Arabia in late March. See my take on this outreach here. Israel-Palestine. The White House announced yesterday that President Obama will host Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu on March 3. Netanyahu is scheduled to address the 2014 AIPAC conference on March 4 in Washington. Meanwhile, Palestinian spokesman Nabil Abu Rudeineh stated on Tuesday that an Israeli-Palestinian agreement would be “useless” if the two parties were allowed to express reservations.  Abu Rudeineh said that the “use of the word ‘reservations’ bogs down the peace process and the use of this concept in the past has got the process stuck.” On Saturday, U.S. secretary of State John Kerry said Israeli and Palestinian leaders needed “to have the right to be able to have some objection.” While We Are Looking Elsewhere Yemen. President Abed Rabbou Mansur Hadi on Monday formally approved turning the country into a six-region federation. While the move was intended to grant the south more autonomy, it was immediately rejected by southerners pushing for secession. Opposition also came from northern Shia Houthi rebels on Tuesday, who said that the division of the republic does not distribute wealth evenly. Meanwhile, the Yemeni government handed twenty-nine al-Qaeda militants to Saudi Arabia on Tuesday. According to the Yemeni defense ministry website, the fighters were Saudi nationals. Iraq. An instructor for the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) that had been teaching militant recruits to make a car bomb accidentally set one off on Monday, killing twenty-one of the recruits in a blast. The blast brought the training camp’s exisitence to the attention of Iraqi authorities, who then arrested over twenty operatives. The late instructor may become a nominee for a posthumous Darwin Award. Kuwait. Following in Saudi footsteps, a member of Kuwait’s parliament, Nabil al-Fadl, proposed a law that would make Kuwaitis participating or instigating participation in conflicts abroad face up to thirty years in jail. The law would penalize members of the National Guard or police more heavily than civilians. In order to pass, the law will need to be approved by the emir, the government, and the parliament. Libya. The headquarters of Tripoli-based Libyan television channel al-Assema were rocked by three blasts yesterday morning. Al-Assema, known for its anti-Islamists stance, has been accused by Islamist groups of instigating demonstrations against the General National Congress. The attack comes after six journalists have been kidnapped in recent days in Tripoli. Israel-Palestine. A municipal planning committee gave preliminary approaval for a plan to build a Yeshiva in the East Jerusalem neighborhood of Sheikh Jarrah. The news of the municipality’s action led Palestinian officials to accuse the Israeli government of efforts to undermines Secretary Kerry’s peace efforts.

President Obama meets King Abdullah of Jordan on Friday in California. The president will also travel to Saudi Arabia in March, just after Secretary of State John Kerry makes a special stop in the United Arab Emirates. All three of these events are part of a larger whole: an attempt by the Obama administration to reassure key American Arab allies that the United States is not retreating from the Middle East or going soft on its leadership role in the world. This effort was exemplified by the extraordinary joint plea by Secretaries Hagel and Kerry recently at the Munich Security Conference to skeptical European partners. The upcoming diplomatic outreach by President Obama to U.S. Arab partners is positive and necessary. The critical question is: will it help smooth ruffled feathers? The White House should harbor no illusions that mere back-slapping and hand-holding will suffice. If Washington is saying: “The meeting is the message,” the Arabs will instead be asking: “What have you done for us lately, and where are you heading?” For the upcoming outreach to the Arabs to be truly effective, America’s top officials will need to bring compelling answers to three critical questions that their Arab partners will pose: First, Iran: “What is the Obama administration’s game plan for Iran?” President Obama and Secretary Kerry will doubtlessly stress their commitment to preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons. That message won’t do. What the Arabs really want to know is whether or not Washington is seeking a much broader modus vivendi with Iran that will lead to a new and “more balanced” security architecture in the region. Is Washington going to continue to seek Iran’s isolation and containment? Or does the United States, as the Arabs now fear, seek to engage, temper, and ultimately reincorporate Iran into its old role as a pillar of Gulf stability? Second, Syria:  What is the United States’ objective in Syria? Is it to contain the fighting, continue to pursue some sort of diplomatic track with the regime it once called on to step down, and to give primacy to Syria’s weapons of mass destruction? Administration calls for Assad to step down as part of a political process, and confidential assurances that limited U.S. covert assistance is now underway, will do little to convince the Arabs that the administration does not seek to get by with as little involvement as possible. Indeed, it will lead Gulf Arabs to conclude that they should redouble their efforts to pour arms and money into Syria pursuing goals clearly not aligned with U.S. interests. Cautionary words by Obama or Kerry to the Arab allies will surely fall on deaf ears. Third, Egypt: President Obama’s silence on Egypt in his State of the Union did not go unnoticed in the Middle East, and is seen as a reflection of a hands-off approach to the Arab world’s most populous country, and main epicenter of the 2011 Arab uprisings. Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and the Emirates have all welcomed, mainly through dollar diplomacy, the July 3, 2013 coup (or military action as some prefer) that toppled the Morsi government. They will now want to know if Washington’s policy remains the one articulated by Secretary Kerry in his last visit to Egypt in November: that Egypt is on the road to democracy. If so, they will be pleased. Hints by Obama or Kerry to quietly urge restraint by Egypt’s military will be met by subtle admonitions by their Arab hosts—however unjustified—that countries that abandon their allies in times of trouble should remain silent when things then quiet down. When they meet with their Saudi, Jordanian, and Emirati interlocutors, Kerry and Obama will surely highlight their Sisyphusian efforts to advance the cause of Israeli-Palestinian peace, and the president will seek to assure them that he stands squarely behind his secretary of state’s mission to bring peace to the Holy Land. The Arabs will welcome these American peace efforts and encourage them to continue. But long gone are the days when Americans could engender Arab felicitations by focusing on the peace process. Today’s Middle East turmoil has brought about threats that U.S. allies see as existential. Unless Obama and Kerry can credibly answer pressing questions on Iran, Syria, and Egypt, whatever goodwill engendered by this outreach is likely to be as enduring as the jet contrails that will follow their aircraft when they depart their meetings.