Middle East and North Africa

Israel

Are Israel and Iran Headed for All-Out War?
The killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and targeted assassination of a Hezbollah military official in Beirut bring Israel and Iran, through its proxies, closer to war.

Expert Brief by Steven A. Cook Jul 31, 2024

What Is Hamas?
The Palestinian militant group struggled to govern the Gaza Strip before launching a surprise attack on Israel in 2023. Now facing Israel’s military campaign to destroy it, Hamas’s future is in doubt, as is Gaza’s.

Backgrounder by Kali Robinson Oct 17, 2024

How Much of a Threat Does Hamas Still Pose to Israel?
Israel has made eliminating the threat from the Gaza-based militant group a central war aim, but it’s not entirely clear at what point that condition will be met.  

Expert Brief by Bruce Hoffman Jun 14, 2024

Why Israel Wants to Draft the Ultra-Orthodox Into the Military
As Israel fights its war in the Gaza Strip, changes to a decades-old draft exemption for its fastest-growing demographic group threaten to fracture Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition and exacerbate the country’s internal rifts.

In Brief by Simone Lipkind Jul 31, 2024

U.S. Aid to Israel in Four Charts
Israel has long been the leading recipient of U.S. foreign aid, including military assistance. That aid has come under heightened scrutiny amid Israel’s conflicts with Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran.

Article by Jonathan Masters and Will Merrow Nov 13, 2024

  • Israel
    Weekend Reading: Sudanese Refugees in Jordan, Egyptian Insults, and Living Without Sabra Hummus
    IRIN reports on Jordan’s neglected refugees. Mada Masr presents “Lexicon of a revolution’s insults,” which looks at new terms and labels invented after the Egyptian uprising of January 25. For those participating in the boycott on Israel, here are ten brands that you would have to give up…
    Blog Post by Steven A. Cook February 7, 2014 From the Potomac to the Euphrates
  • United States
    This Week: Syria’s Fighting, Iran’s Windfall, and Iraq’s Violence
    Significant Developments Syria. The United Nations and Syria agreed today to allow humanitarian aid into the besieged old city of Homs, and to allow women and children safe passage out. The agreement came just hours after Syrian rebels announced a new campaign in Aleppo against government forces which escalated its air assault earlier this week. On Sunday, al-Qaeda’s central leadership officially cut its ties to the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), a major insurgent group that operates in Syria and Iraq and has caused widespread conflict among rebel factions fighting against Bashar al-Assad. Divisions between the two groups began emerging last year when al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahri ordered ISIS to withdraw from Syria in order for the rebellion to be led by their official affiliate, the Nusra Front. Meanwhile, the Syrian government yesterday missed another deadline in its chemical weapon destruction plan. According to a timetable issued by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, Syria was supposed to have given up its entire chemical stockpile by February 5. Even though the Syrian government says it will still meet the final deadline of June 30, U.S. officials claim Syria had only removed 4 percent of its most toxic chemicals thus far. Iran. On Monday, the United States confirmed that Iran received its first $550 million installment of assets resulting from the sanctions relief agreed to in the November interim deal. According to Iran’s official IRNA news agency, the funds went into an Iranian Central Bank account in Switzerland. In the interim deal, six major powers agreed to grant Iran access to $4.2 billion in its oil revenues frozen abroad in exchange for nuclear disengagement. Also on Monday, the Iranian government began handing out food packages for millions of Iranians. While meant to ease the pressure on Iranian citizens, the poor implementation of the food distribution program—at least three people died while waiting in the cold to receive handouts—led some Iranian parliamentarians to criticize Iranian president Rouhani.  U.S. Foreign Policy Syria. Senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham told reporters that U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry had suggested to a bipartisan congressional delegation that President Obama needs a new, more assertive Syria policy. The conversation reportedly took place on Sunday in Munich, one day after Kerry joined Defense Secretary Hagel to give an uncompromising defense of the administration’s foreign policy. Meanwhile, U.S. officials said the Department of State’s Syria point man, Ambassador Robert Ford, plans to retire from his post by the end of the month. A longtime Middle East expert, Ford was instrumental in efforts to bring together different factions of the fragmented Syrian opposition in order for them to enter negotiations in Geneva. Ford was reportedly tapped by the Obama Administration to become the next U.S. ambassador to Egypt, but the appointment was rejected by the Cairo government. Saudi Arabia. The White House announced that President Obama will travel to Saudi Arabia in March. The visit will be the first to the kingdom since popular uprisings across the Middle East began in 2011. “Saudi Arabia is a close partner of the United States, and we have a bilateral relationship that is broad and deep and covers a range of areas,” White House press secretary Jay Carney said Monday. The visit appears designed to patch up differences between Washington and Riyadh that have spilled over into the public over the United States’ handling of Syria’s civil war. Israel-Palestine. Israeli politicians continued to criticize Secretary of State Kerry this week, accusing him of manipulating the threat of an economic boycott against Israel to pressure the government into peace concessions. U.S. State Department spokesperson Jen Psaki rebuked the criticisms, emphasizing Kerry’s demonstration of “staunch opposition to boycotts.” Kerry yesterday also brushed off the criticisms, telling CNN that, “I’ve been, quote, ’attacked’ before by people using real bullets, not words. And I am not going to be intimidated.” Israel’s chief peace negotiator, Justice Minister Tzipi Livni, rebuked fellow government ministers over their criticisms of Secretary Kerry. While We Are Looking Elsewhere Saudi Arabia. King Abdullah issued a royal decree on Monday punishing citizens who fight in conflicts outside Saudi Arabia. Regional civil wars such as Syria’s have been attracting a large flow of Saudi fighters, worrying the monarchy that the fighters could return radicalized and threaten their own government. The royal decree comes just one day after the implementation of a bold counterterrorism law that criminalizes virtually any criticism of the government. Algeria. The head of Algeria’s ruling party, Amar Saidani, called on powerful intelligence chief General Mohamed “Tewfiq” Mediene to resign in an interview published on Monday. Saidani blamed Mediene for failures of the DRS military intelligence agency, and declared that, “The presence of internal security in every institution gives the impression that power in Algeria is not in civilian hands.” Meanwhile, long-time Algerian president Abd el-Aziz Bouteflika was backed by a large majority of political forces for the upcoming presidential elections. The elections are currently scheduled for April 17. Yemen. A ceasefire was restored today between Sunni tribesmen and northern Houthi rebels after fighting broke out just north of Sana’a last night. The fledgling truce was agreed to on Tuesday to end fighting that had killed nearly 150 people in the past week. Egypt. A video of the arrest of two Al Jazeera journalists was leaked on Monday in Egypt and broadcasted on a pro-government private channel. The two journalists, Egyptian-Canadian television producer Mohamed Fahmy and Australian correspondent Peter Greste, have been detained since their arrest on December 29 and were among twenty Al Jazeera journalists charged with broadcasting false reports to help the Muslim Brotherhood. Turkey. The Israeli government offered Turkey $20 million on Monday in compensation to the families of those killed or wounded during the 2010 raid on the Gaza-bound flotilla. Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu apologized over a phone call last March. Iraq. Seven car bombs exploded across Baghdad today, killing at least thirteen people in the latest of a series of explosions that have wracked the Iraqi capital. Yesterday, a wave of bombings included blasts in the city’s “Green Zone” and a busy square in the city center. While no group has claimed responsibility for the killings, the bombings followed a long series of attacks blamed by the government on the Islamic State of Iraq and the Syria (ISIS). Israel-Palestine. Abbas proposed that a NATO deployment could play a role in maintaining security as part of a peace agreement with Israel. “The third party can stay,” Abbas said. “They can stay to reassure the Israelis, and to protect us.” Meanwhile, Jerusalem municipality’s planning committee gave final approval for 558 apartments in East Jerusalem yesterday.
    Blog Post by Robert Danin February 6, 2014 Middle East Matters
  • Israel
    Settlement Impossible
    The Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the never-ending peace process are back.  Not that they ever went away, but the conflict has gotten far more newsprint and bandwidth in the last week or so than it has over the last six months. On Sunday, the New York Times ran three pieces in its “Sunday Review” section that touched on the conflict.  Essays by Hirsh Goodman and Omar Barghouti dealt specifically with the Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions (BDS) campaign—an issue bound up in politics and fraught with emotions that is linked to the efficacy of non-violent protest, the fight against South African apartheid in the 1980s, and the long effort to deny the Jewish connection to the territory that is now Israel and the West Bank. The BDS campaign has had some important victories lately.  In December, the American Studies Association voted overwhelmingly to boycott Israel’s universities.  The members of the Association for Asian-American Studies took a similar decision last spring and the Modern Language Association is believed to be laying the groundwork for a boycott as well. The large Dutch pension fund, PGGM, recently decided to unload its holdings in five Israeli banks.  Overall, the idea of bringing Israel’s occupation to an end through non-violent global economic pressure seems to be gaining ground in Europe and on university campuses. Over the last week, a controversy erupted around Scarlett Johansson’s appearance in a SodaStream commercial that aired during last night’s Super Bowl.  The Israeli company, which manufactures “soda makers” allowing consumers to make their own carbonated drinks, has a facility in the large West Bank settlement, Ma’ale Adumim.  The SodaStream incident was not a win for BDS—Scarlett Johansson stuck with the company—but it did force a fierce debate ever closer to the mainstream about the injustices of the occupation, the legitimacy of Israel, and how best to express solidarity with the Palestinians. For the advocates of the Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions campaign, the issue is clear—Israel’s occupation of the West Bank (and its control over the Gaza Strip) amounts to apartheid. The fence/wall that the Israelis began constructing in 2002, which cuts deep into parts of the West Bank, no doubt provides Israel with security, but it is also undeniably a means to control the majority Palestinian population more tightly.  Restricted roads and other critical infrastructure that knit inside-the-green-line Israel to settlements make it hard to imagine how Palestine would ever come to be, leaving Palestinians to exist stateless and without rights as Israelis build around them.  This may not be South African apartheid, but the similarities are enough to mobilize the people of goodwill around the world against Israeli injustices.  According to BDS activists, the successful campaign against South Africa in the 1980s is a model for righting the historic injustices done to the Palestinians through Israel’s now almost 47-year occupation. For many Israelis and Israel’s supporters around the world, the situation is not as clear as BDS activists make it.  They argue that Israel came into possession of the West Bank, Gaza Strip, and East Jerusalem by dint of a war waged against it; that even before that conflict, the Arab world refused to recognize Israel’s right to exist; Palestinian leaders have been unable to make a deal despite generous offers from two Israeli prime ministers; and Palestinian extremists responded to Israel’s withdrawal from the Gaza Strip in 2005 with years of rocket fire on Israeli towns. Pro-Israel voices point to the SodaStream case, in particular, to highlight the complexities of the occupation against the blunt-force activism of the BDS campaign.  They argue that the SodaStream facility in Ma’ale Adumim is but one of the company’s 22 manufacturing facilities, which the current owners inherited when they bought the firm in 2007. Everyone knows that Ma’ale Adumim, which is really a suburb of Jerusalem, will be incorporated into Israel in any peace agreement. There are also 500 Palestinians who are employed there, earning the same as Israeli employees. And SodaStream’s CEO, Daniel Birnbaum, is a supporter of peace who has called the factory in the West Bank a “pain,” but nevertheless does not want to shut down his Ma’ale Adumim operations for fear of what will happen to all his employees there.  Israel’s supporters argue further that boycotting SodaStream and in the process forcing it to shut down that single facility will not hurt the company, but will hit its Palestinian employees hard—an odd way of demonstrating solidarity. Beyond a certain amount of emotional bombast and the historiography that comes with it, both the pro- and anti-boycott narratives are compelling:  The occupation is brutal and unjust, but to look at it only in terms of Palestinian suffering without the context of Israel’s fight for a safe and legitimate place in the Middle East is to misapprehend the crux of the conflict and why it endures.  At the same time, it is too easy to invoke “context” to shift the debate away from unpleasant facts and realities, such as the 121 settlements and 500,000 settlers who live in the West Bank and an ever-expanding Jerusalem.  Israel has a right to exist.  The Jewish connection to the land is undeniable.  Yet there is a dark flipside to the redemption of a people in their ancient home, and that is the dispossession of its other inhabitants. Having been left to negotiate the disposition of a mere 21 percent of what they consider to be their own homeland, Palestinians look on with dismay as a colonial project goes on around them and cannot help but conclude that the Israelis really have no intention of trading land for peace.  The details of the SodaStream story complicate matters in the BDS debate, but only in a small way.  It may very well be that the company is good to its Palestinian employees, but SodaStream seems to be an exception that proves the rule of Israeli exploitation of Palestinian laborers who are paid low wages and who enjoy few, if any, protections.  Even the seemingly powerful argument that boycotting SodaStream will only hurt its Palestinian employees reveals how the occupation has produced a situation in which Palestinian economic well-being has become dependent on Israel. Under these circumstances, you have to wonder what Secretary of State John Kerry believes he can accomplish. Over the weekend, the New Republic’s John Judis reported on a conference call between Kerry’s peace team and pro-Israel groups during which Martin Indyk, U.S. Special Envoy for Israeli-Palestinian Negotiations, offered a broad outline of what the Obama administration envisions in a conflict-ending deal.  That rough outline sounds similar to what Hosni Mubarak long advocated: Instead of getting bogged down over the problem of settlements, determine the broad outlines of a deal, including borders, and the rest will take care of itself.  Yet it is hard to get around the obstacles that the settlements are.  Based on Judis’ reporting, 75 percent of the settlers would remain under Israeli sovereignty in the West Bank through land swaps along with a residual military presence in the Jordan Valley for anywhere from 3 to 10 years and a host of other security guarantees.  What will become of the remaining settlers is left open to question. Still, that is a lot of people no matter what method is used to count the settlers. The Palestinians would be hard-pressed to like this deal, but their views do not actually matter much. The Israelis hold virtually every card, and given the configuration of Israeli politics where the right has brought down successive prime ministers, it is highly unlikely that the issue of continued settlements will hinge on whether Scarlett Johansson is hawking SodaStream or not.  
    Blog Post by Steven A. Cook February 3, 2014 From the Potomac to the Euphrates
  • Middle East and North Africa
    "Soft Bigotry," Secretary Kerry, and the PLO
    Secretary of State Kerry continues to press forward in his negotiations with Israelis and Palestinians, seeking some sort of "framework" document that would be an acceptable basis for future negotiations. We’ve been here before: the "Roadmap" of 2003 was supposed to provide such a basis and was accepted--with reservations--by both sides. My guess is that Kerry will succeed, if success is defined as keeping both sides at the table. But what if success is defined as moving the Palestinians closer to having a decent, democratic political structure that can lay the foundation for eventual statehood? What has Kerry, and what has the Obama administration, demanded of the Israelis to move forward? At various times a freeze of all construction has been demanded, and for ten months prime minister Netanyahu complied. For this effort, which had a significant cost in Israel’s domestic politics, Israel and Netanyahu received no benefit. More recently, Israel has been pressured to release dozens of  convicted murderers from its prisons, at an even greater political cost. That cost was then increased several fold when the murderers were received by PLO chairman (and PA president) Abbas as honored citizens. And what has been demanded of the Palestinians? What will be demanded as part of the Kerry proposals? In my view, the answer is nothing--nothing at all. In a recent trip to the region I found universal agreement that in the last year corruption in the PA has increased greatly. The United States has not reacted in any way, thus delivering the message to Abbas that we do not care. The reception given to the murderers is just one piece of the overall picture of glorifying terrorism and terrorists, which continues apace. This is what is called "incitement" in the diplomatic lingo, and like its predecessors (including the Bush administration) the Obama administration complains occasionally but does nothing about it. And it is worth noting that Abbas was elected president in January 2005, and is in that sense in the tenth year of his four year term. There are no serious plans for elections, and once again the United States does not seem to care. So that’s the picture: in return for coming to the negotiating table, and now for staying at the table, we overlook everything else the PA/PLO does. We overlook the illegitimacy of the government, the glorification of terror, and the spreading corruption. The clear U.S. message is that nothing really counts but sitting down with Kerry and the Israelis. I have no doubt that whatever document Kerry produces will say something about "incitement" and perhaps even something about better "governance," a code word for reducing corruption.  And I have no doubt that six months later nothing will have changed. The Palestinians are not stupid and they can distinguish easily between real pressure and mere words. President Bush once noted the "soft bigotry of low expectations" in our domestic context, and the term is useful here. For it is bigotry to believe that more cannot realistically be expected from the Palestinians. And it is very damaging to any hope for a decent, democratic, independent state some day. Neither the political culture nor the institutions of democracy can be built this way. That was the great error of the Clinton administration, which dealt with Yasser Arafat as if he would one day be the George Washington of Palestine instead of the corrupt terrorist he was. The error is being repeated now, as we ask Abbas for one thing only--to sit at the table--and overlook all else. The irony here is that Abbas got his job as prime minister, in 2003, when the United States and the EU forced Arafat to create the post and fill it (and also put in Salam Fayyad as finance minister) because we came to believe that defining the borders of Palestine was not the prime goal. Instead, defining what would be within those borders was more important: was it to be a corrupt terrorist state, or one that was building toward a decent government under the rule of law? Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it, Santayana famously said. Here we go again, drawing maps of border compromises when inside Gaza and the West Bank, Palestinians are further from developing the institutions they need than they were when Barack Obama came to office.    
    Blog Post by Elliott Abrams February 2, 2014 Pressure Points
  • United States
    This Week: Syria’s Negotiations, Egypt’s Entrenchment, and Iran’s Inspections
    Significant Developments Syria. The first ever talks between the Syrian opposition and the Assad regime continue in Switzerland, with the Syrian government hinting yesterday it may be willing to accede to the 2012 Geneva I communique as a road map for the future. However, the Damascus government and the Syrian opposition fundamentally disagree over how to implement the document and its call for a political transition in Syria. Today, representatives from the Syrian government and opposition exchanged bitter accusations of responsibility for Syria’s violence. UN-Arab League envoy Lakhdar Brahimi expressed “some satisfaction” that the two sides have not walked out, reflecting the low expectations for the talks’ initial round. This first phase of direct face-to-face talks that began last Friday is set to finish tomorrow and will be followed by a weeklong break. Meanwhile, Human Rights Watch released a new report today that documents the Syrian government’s razing of entire neighborhoods in Damascus and Hama. Ole Solvang, an emergencies researcher at Human Rights Watch, described the demolitions as “wiping entire neighborhoods off the map.” Egypt. Defense Minister Abdel Fatah al-Sisi was endorsed by Egypt’s top military commanders for a potential presidential bid on Monday. The official endorsement by Egypt’s Supreme Council of the Armed Forces came a few hours after interim president Adly Mansour promoted al-Sisi to the position of field marshal, the highest rank in the Egyptian Army. The generals also declared that Sisi’s broad public backing has made his candidacy an “obligation.” Meanwhile, Former president Morsi on Tuesday made his second appearance since his arrest following the July 3 military takeover in Egypt. Morsi sat locked in a soundproof glass cage that impeded him from speaking during most of the day’s proceedings. The Cairo Criminal Court charged twenty Al Jazeera reporters yesterday of joining or aiding a terrorist group. A statement released by prosecutors claimed that the journalists had released images to assist the Muslim Brotherhood in influencing international opinion. State Department spokesperson Jen Psaki said that, “The government’s targeting of journalists and others on spurious claims is wrong and demonstrates an egregious disregard for the protection of basic rights and freedoms.” Iran. UN nuclear inspectors reportedly visited an Iranian uranium mine yesterday, marking the first International Atomic Energy Agency visit to an Iranian uranium facility in nearly a decade. Allowing IAEA access to Gchine represents one of six steps that Iran agreed to under the November 11 cooperation agreement with the agency. President Obama argued against new Iran sanctions in his State of the Union speech on Tuesday, saying that, “For the sake of our national security, we must give diplomacy a chance to succeed.” He acknowledged that sanctions had made a deal with Iran possible, but warned Congress that he would veto any new sanctions bill. U.S. Foreign Policy Syria. Reuters reported on Tuesday that the United States is supplying “light arms” to moderate Syrian rebels and that Congress has approved funding for further deliveries through September 30, the end of the fiscal year. Lawmakers reportedly approved the funding in classified sections of defense funding legislation. The unclassified defense appropriations bill was passed in late December, but it is unclear when the closed door vote on supplying arms occurred. Israel-Palestine. Saeb Erekat, the chief negotiator for the Palestinian Authority, visited Washington on Tuesday to discuss the ongoing peace negotiations. Secretary of State John Kerry is expected to present the parties with a draft framework agreement sometime in the next few weeks. Israeli negotiators—Justice Minister Tzipi Livni and Yitzhak Molcho—visited Washington last week to meet Kerry. Jordan. U.S. deputy secretary of state William Burns was received by King Abdullah on Wednesday when the two reportedly discussed regional developments and Arab-Israeli peace efforts. Speaking about the Syrian peace talks in Geneva at a press conference, Burns said that it is “the beginning of a long and difficult process aimed at political transition” and that “the key will remain the transition to a new leadership.” The White House announced yesterday that President Obama will meet King Abdullah on February 14 at the Annenberg Estate in Rancho Mirage, California. While We Are Looking Elsewhere Tunisia. A new technocratic government headed by interim prime minister Medhi Jomaa was sworn in yesterday, coming on the heels of the country’s official adoption of a new constitution on Monday. Earlier this week, Jomaa appealed to the international community, stating that “this sensitive phase of democratic transition…will need some economic reforms and sources of financing.”  The IMF announced today the release of a $500 million loan that had been delayed for months due to political instability. Iraq. Six suicide bombers attacked the Iraqi transportation ministry in Baghdad today, killing at least twenty-four people. While no group has claimed responsibility, Iraqi security officials blamed the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), which is an al-Qaeda linked group that seized control of Fallujah earlier this month. Yemen.  Following the conclusion ceremony of reconciliation talks on Saturday, Yemeni president Abed Rabbou Mansour Hadi assigned a newly-formed committee on Monday with the task of exploring options to transform Yemen into a federation. The committee will explore dividing the country into two or six zones. The result will be written into a new constitution scheduled to be completed within a year. Libya. New fighting erupted in the city of Sebha on Tuesday between supporters of former ruler Muammar Qaddafi and government forces and former rebels. The clash was sparked by the arrival of government reinforcements deployed to dislodge the Qaddafi supporters from several positions in the urban area. Israel-Palestine. Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas said in an interview on Tuesday that he would accept a gradual three-year Israeli withdrawal from the occupied West Bank. Abbas was reportedly responding to Israeli defense minister Moshe Yaalon’s challenge on the effectiveness of the Palestinian leader’s security commitments. “I am saying that clearly: whoever proposes 10 or 15 years for a transition period does not want to withdraw,” Abbas stated. “We say that a transitional period not exceed three years, during which Israel can withdraw gradually.” The interview was broadcast at the Institute for National Security Studies conference in Tel Aviv. Meanwhile, the Shin Bet and Israeli police have arrested sixteen East Jerusalem residents on suspicion of funding Hamas activity in the city. Authorities suspect that Hamas has been funding an educational program in Jerusalem’s Haram al-Sharif/Temple Mount area, paying Muslims to stay in the area in order to increase the Islamic presence there.
    Blog Post by Robert Danin January 30, 2014 Middle East Matters
  • United States
    This Week: Egypt’s Constitutional Referendum, Syria’s Peace Conference, and Iraq’s Unity Setback
    Significant Developments Egypt. Egyptian state media reported today that over 95 percent of those who participated in the two-day constitutional referendum voted in favor of the new charter. Estimated turnout rates fluctuate wildly, ranging from an Interior Ministry official’s report of more than 55 percent to state media reports of just over 36 percent. The turnout for the previous constitutional referendum held a year ago under then-president Mohammed Morsi was 33 percent. Egypt’s spokesman for the presidency, Ehab Badawy, said that, “This vote represents a resounding rejection of terrorism and a clear endorsement of the roadmap to democracy, as well as economic development and stability.” The Muslim Brotherhood boycotted the vote. Final results are expected to be announced in a few days. Syria. Secretary of State John Kerry today urged the National Syrian Coalition, Syria’s main opposition group, to decide to attend next week’s Geneva II peace talks tomorrow. Earlier today, Syrian foreign minister Walid al-Muallem confirmed the Assad regime’s participation in a letter to UN secretary general Ban Ki-moon; the National Coordination Body, a centrist opposition group in Syria, announced that it would not attend. Speaking at a news conference after meeting with Muallem and Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said that, “Iran must be and inevitably will become part of complex efforts to settle the Syrian problem.” Meanwhile, Ahmet Uzumcu, head of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, said today that the full removal and destruction of mustard gas and the components of Sarin and VX will likely be delayed until the end of June. The agreed upon deadline was the end of March. At a donors conference in Kuwait yesterday, Kerry pledged an extra $380 million in U.S. aid for Syrian civilians. Iraq. Members of an Al Qaeda affiliate have passed out pamphlets in Fallujah over the last two days urging residents to join the fight against the Iraqi government. Prime minister Nuri al-Maliki said today that he has given a list to the United States detailing the weapons necessary to take back Anbar province from Al Qaeda militants. Maliki also said he plans to request counterterrorism training from the United States and noted that the situation in Iraq is connected to the conflict in Syria: “The whole region’s events are connected…to solve the problem in Iraq we cannot look at it in isolation from the other events in the region.” Meanwhile, more devastating car bombings struck Baghdad yesterday, killing at least sixty-four people. U.S. Foreign Policy Benghazi Report. The Senate Intelligence Committee released a report yesterday on the September 11, 2012 attack against the U.S. consulate in Benghazi, concluding that the attack could have been prevented. The report faulted the State Department for not increasing security at its mission despite intelligence warnings of terrorist activities. It also criticized the intelligence community for not sharing information about the existence of the CIA annex at the compound with the U.S. military. Israel. Israeli defense minister Moshe Yaalon apologized on Tuesday after being quoted earlier in the day describing U.S. secretary of state John Kerry acting on the peace process “out of an incomprehensible obsession and a messianic feeling.” U.S. State Department spokesperson Marie Harf had called Yaalon’s comments “offensive and inappropriate, especially given all that the United States has done to support Israel’s security needs and will continue to do.” The latest episode came one day after Vice President Joe Biden visited Israel to attend the funeral of former prime minister Ariel Sharon. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Lebanon. The Special Tribunal for Lebanon opened its trial into the February 2005 assassination of former prime minister Rafik Hariri today. Former prime minister Saad Hariri, speaking about the trial of his father’s murder, “From now on, any attempt to try to disrupt this path will be in vain.” Nonetheless, none of the four defendants in the trial, all of them members of Hezbollah, have been apprehended. Meanwhile, a suicide car bomb killed four people and wounded at least twenty-six more today in Harmel, near the Syrian border. On Tuesday, the Abdullah Azzam Brigades, an Al Qaeda-linked group, vowed on Twitter to continue attacking Iran and Hezbollah, after the killing of its leader. Libya. Deputy Minister for Oil and Gas Omar Chakma announced today that oil revenues were about 20 percent less than had been projected for 2013. Chakma noted that the drop off came mostly in the second half of the year when a militia in eastern Libya declared itself an autonomous government and shut down oil terminals. On Tuesday, Prime Minister Ali Zeidan told a press conference that the Libyan government would work with mediators to try to end the dispute with the militia, saying that, “We have two solutions: Through force or peaceful means. We preferred the peaceful way.” Meanwhile, Hassan al-Droui, Libya’s deputy industry minister, was assassinated while visiting his hometown of Sirte on Saturday. It was the first assassination of a senior member of Libya’s transitional government. Bahrain. Crown Prince Salman Bin Hamad Al Khalifa met with leaders of the main opposition group, Al Wefaq, yesterday to discuss the resumption of reconciliation talks. It was the first high-level meeting since 2011, when Saudi Arabia sent troops into Bahrain to restore order after protests broke out demanding political reforms. Al Wefaq released a statement calling the meeting “especially frank and very transparent.” The National Dialogue talks were suspended last week. Yemen. Suspected Al Qaeda militants attacked Raada, a Yemeni military camp today, killing at least eight soldiers and wounding ten more. Meanwhile, a farmer was killed yesterday by a U.S. drone strike that was reportedly targeting Islamist militants. Turkey. The Republican People’s Party (CHP), Turkey’s largest opposition group, rejected the Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) proposal to amend Turkey’s top judicial body today. Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leader of the CHP, claimed yesterday that Turkish prime minister Recep Erdogan is trying to establish a “one-man rule” and “concentrate all state power to himself.” Jordan-Israel-Palestine. Jordan’s Royal Palace confirmed that Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited Amman today for closed door talks with King Abdullah about “developments in the peace process.” Meanwhile, Israel’s Army Radio reported today that Netanyahu has added the Beit El settlement to the list of blocs Israel intends to keep in a final status agreement. An anonymous source claiming familiarity with the U.S.-brokered negotiations said that Netanyahu cited a biblical link to Beit El.  
    Blog Post by Robert Danin January 16, 2014 Middle East Matters
  • Middle East and North Africa
    Aiming for Israeli-Palestinian Peace
    Secretary of State Kerry continues his energetic efforts to get the Israelis and Palestinians to sign a comprehensive peace agreement. In a new Policy Innovation Memo for the Council, I argue that such an agreement is not possible right now and that there’s a better way forward. The memo begins this way: The Obama administration is fostering Israeli-Palestinian negotiations aimed at a full and final peace agreement. While the talks last they help calm the regional political situation, but they do nothing to improve Palestinian daily life or help build the institutions of a future Palestinian state. If they fail, as all past efforts have, they may leave behind frustration and bitterness. Even so, negotiations should not be abandoned, but should be buttressed by a simultaneous effort to undertake pragmatic steps that support Palestinian institutions, improve life in the West Bank, and strengthen the Palestinian Authority (PA) against Hamas. The cost of our focus on a comprehensive agreement has been that the United States has rarely pushed hard for immediate, meaningful, on-the-ground changes. We think we are "aiming high" and that "aiming low" shows insufficient ambition, but realistic moves that help prepare the Palestinian people for statehood are in fact a better bet than the search for that elusive handshake on the White House lawn. The memo offers some concrete suggestions for U.S. policy, and concludes this way: While today’s political-level peace negotiations can provide an essential umbrella for pragmatic steps, focusing solely on achieving a full final status agreement is too risky. Practical on-the-ground improvements are beneficial in themselves and can improve chances for an eventual negotiated settlement. They will also strengthen the PA and its ability to engage in the compromises any full peace agreement will require. Supporting the construction of a Palestinian state from the ground up, strengthening Palestinian institutions, and seeking pragmatic Israeli-Palestinian cooperation should be the center of U.S. policy now, not the handmaiden to a policy aimed at a comprehensive but currently unattainable final peace agreement. The full text is found here.
    Blog Post by Elliott Abrams January 15, 2014 Pressure Points
  • Middle East and North Africa
    Ariel Sharon, R.I.P.
    Former prime minister of Israel Ariel Sharon was buried today. In Commentary Magazine, I offered my thoughts about the passing of a man I worked with closely during his years as prime minister, and some of the words President Bush had planned to say when attending Sharon’s funeral--in 2006. We had all expected that Sharon’s stroke in January 2006 would lead quickly to his death, and President Bush intended to attend the funeral. In 2003, Bush sent Steve Hadley and me to see Sharon and listen to him: not to pressure him, or tell him what we wanted, but to see what he thought, feared, predicted, desired. We had a long conversation that day in his residence. Here’s some of what he said: I took risks personally but never took any risks with the security of the State of Israel. I appreciate Arab promises but will take seriously only tangible performance.  For tangible performance I will take tangible steps.  Israel is a tiny small country.  From the Jordan River to Jerusalem is only 17.5 miles.  Before 1967, the Knesset was in range of machine guns south of Jerusalem. From the Green Line to Tel Aviv is 11 miles.  From the sea at Netanya to Tulkarm is 9 miles.  Two-thirds of the Jewish population lives is a narrow strip on the coastal plain.  Between Haifa and Ashdod, which is 80 miles, is two-thirds of the Jewish population, our only international airport, and most of our infrastructure.  All of that is overlooked by the hills of Judea and Samaria. I am a Jew above all and feel the responsibility to the future of the Jewish people on my shoulders.  After what happened in the past, I will not let the future of the Jewish people depend on anyone, even our closest friends.  Especially when you saw the crowds cheering Saddam who killed even members of his own family and government.  With the deepest friendship and appreciation, we do not choose to be the lamb, but not the lion either.  I will not sacrifice the nation.  I come from a farm family who settled here but I deal with these problems with a cold mind.  I met with the Pope, who said this is Terra Sancta to all, but Terra Promisa for the Jews only.   As I say in Commentary, "Sharon left the political scene in his prime, not physically but politically: on top of Israeli politics, a leader whom opponents and rivals feared and whom everyone understood was almost unstoppable. Sharon was born on a moshav in 1928, two decades before the state. The Israel he leaves finally, today, is a tower of strength and stability in a region being torn apart. Many Israelis contributed their lives to that achievement, but very few can match the contribution of Arik Sharon." The full text is here.
    Blog Post by Elliott Abrams January 13, 2014 Pressure Points
  • Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
    The Israeli-Palestinian Negotiations: Aiming "Low" or "High"
    The Obama administration is fostering Israeli-Palestinian negotiations aimed at a full and final peace agreement. While the talks last they help calm the regional political situation, but they do nothing to improve Palestinian daily life or help build the institutions of a future Palestinian state. If they fail, as all past efforts have, they may leave behind frustration and bitterness. Even so, negotiations should not be abandoned, but should be buttressed by a simultaneous effort to undertake pragmatic steps that support Palestinian institutions, improve life in the West Bank, and strengthen the Palestinian Authority (PA) against Hamas. While today's political-level peace negotiations can provide an essential umbrella for such steps, focusing solely on achieving a full "final status agreement" is too risky. Practical "on-the-ground" improvements are beneficial in themselves and can improve chances for an eventual negotiated settlement. Moreover, because such steps do not violate the interests of the Israeli or Palestinian sides, they can be pursued without continuing the top-level U.S. intervention that other and often higher U.S. policy priorities may require. The Cost of "Aiming High" At least since the Oslo Accords in 1993, Washington has sought to broker a comprehensive peace agreement to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian and Israeli-Arab conflict. Those efforts have failed, and they have damaged the prestige of both U.S. administrations and Palestinian leaders. Had the moderate leadership that emerged under President Mahmoud Abbas and former prime minister Salam Fayyad achieved a peace agreement and created a Palestinian state, it would have been greatly strengthened vis-à-vis Hamas and other terrorist groups. When this failed to occur, the PA's main argument against Hamas—that Hamas could only deliver violence, while they could deliver a state—was weakened. The United States has contributed to this problem by "aiming high." The cost of Washington's focus on a comprehensive agreement has been that it has rarely pushed hard for immediate, on-the-ground changes that would be meaningful to Palestinians—such as more jobs in Israel or more control over larger areas of the West Bank. Such changes do not reflect a lack of ambition or vision; rather, they can be characterized as "preparing for statehood," and would suggest to Palestinians that their affairs are being competently handled by the current leadership and that they have much to lose from the violent actions and extreme politics of terrorist groups. The United States can, as a matter of policy, seek both a long-term, comprehensive deal and take incremental, preparatory steps. But top officials have limited time and energy, and focusing on the former has crowded out the latter. The rebalancing of policy from focusing exclusively on a final and comprehensive deal to examining preparatory steps as well means more than just rearranging diplomatic talking points. It requires reorienting U.S. policy after decades of aiming high and falling short. It also requires a new understanding of how a Palestinian state will be built: not at the United Nations or even at the negotiating table but, rather, in the West Bank. While the U.S. timetable of nine months to negotiate a full peace agreement and the longer time needed for pragmatic steps to bear fruit appear out of sequence, the opposite is true. A final peace agreement will take many years, and the effects of practical steps can be felt far sooner. And because such steps do not threaten Israeli security or the PA's role in the West Bank, they should be agreeable to both sides. Negotiations and Practical Steps Taking incremental steps is not an argument against seeking comprehensive peace negotiations. The renewal of peace negotiations is useful, if only to demonstrate that the ultimate goal of a comprehensive agreement has not been abandoned. But it is unlikely that new negotiations will make progress in the near future; the most any Israeli government seems able to offer is less than the least any Palestinian government seems able to accept. The United States should help the PA emerge from a state of financial crisis. The PA depends on foreign aid for survival, because it cannot pay salaries or provide public services on its meager tax revenues. This objective will require maintaining U.S. aid at current levels, pressing the EU to do the same, and pushing Arab oil-exporting countries to provide additional aid. It will also mean pressing Israel to transfer PA tax monies it has intermittently withheld since the Palestinian statehood initiative in the United Nations. A bankrupt PA that cannot pay salaries will not survive. The United States should encourage Israel to take further steps to improve the Palestinian economy. In the last four years, Israel has removed some barriers and checkpoints that interfere with mobility in the West Bank, granted permission for Israeli Arabs to shop there, and created more opportunities for residents there to work in Israel. In September 2013, with negotiations under way, Israel granted five thousand more work permits, and during Ramadan it permitted hundreds of thousands of Palestinians to enter Israel to shop, visit holy sites, and meet with family members. It should be a top priority of U.S. policy to seek the continuation and enlargement of these steps. Israel should limit construction in settlements to the major blocs that, in all previous negotiations, have been understood that Israel will keep. The logic is obvious: limiting construction to the major blocs would signal that Israel does intend ultimately to enter into an agreement that establishes a Palestinian state in the rest of the West Bank. Israeli coalition politics makes achieving these limits difficult, but the United States will have a better chance if it drops the politically impossible demand that Israel cease construction in Jerusalem and all the major blocs and focus instead on outlying settlements. Israel should minimize its incursions in Palestinian territory and undertake only those with significant security payoffs. In areas of the West Bank, Palestinians feel the Israeli presence outside of settlements through their interactions with Israeli security forces: the Israeli Defense Force, police, and Shin Bet (the Israel Security Agency). Raids in urban areas are particularly likely to result in violence, as they have on several occasions in 2013. Such incidents severely damage essential Israeli-Palestinian security cooperation. The United States should publicly ask for explanations by the government of Israel when such raids do occur. The United States should encourage Israeli security forces and courts to prevent and penalize settler violence against Palestinians, which has increased in recent years. The United States should seek investigations and prosecutions of such incidents. The United States should be willing to criticize and sometimes penalize the PA whenever it glorifies violence or those who have committed acts of terror. This issue, known as preventing "incitement," goes to the heart of the Israeli-Palestinian relationship and the chances for peace. The U.S. government should publicly criticize actions that glorify violence and terror, and demand PA responses that address U.S. criticism. Financial penalties undermine U.S. efforts to help the West Bank economy but can drive home the message to the PA that this issue is viewed as serious. Given U.S. aid levels of over $400 million per year, penalties of several million dollars in the direct budget support portion (roughly $200 million) will not bankrupt the PA; conversely, the absence of them sends the message that such conduct does not matter or that U.S. complaints may be ignored. Hamas will denounce practical steps as "making the occupation more tolerable." But, in fact, steps that improve life for Palestinians and help them build state institutions are beneficial in themselves and create a positive background for serious talks and improve their chances of success. Moreover, such steps would help the PA demonstrate its efficacy to the Palestinian people today, when it cannot deliver statehood (and indeed when Fayyad's departure suggests that the PA may be hard put to deliver clean and effective governance); it will need that credibility to sell the compromises that any final status agreement will entail. None of this will transform the Palestinian political situation, but it can at least prevent a further deterioration in PA popularity. Those who focus instead on achieving a comprehensive peace are allowing their hopes to crowd out the pragmatic steps that are the most realistic path forward. The Next Three Years While today's political-level peace negotiations can provide an essential umbrella for pragmatic steps, focusing solely on achieving a full final status agreement is too risky. Practical on-the-ground improvements are beneficial in themselves and can improve chances for an eventual negotiated settlement. They will also strengthen the PA and its ability to engage in the compromises any full peace agreement will require. Supporting the construction of a Palestinian state from the ground up, strengthening Palestinian institutions, and seeking pragmatic Israeli-Palestinian cooperation should be the center of U.S. policy now, not the handmaiden to a policy aimed at a comprehensive but currently unattainable final peace agreement.
    Policy Innovation Memorandum by Elliott Abrams January 13, 2014
  • United States
    Israel’s Ariel Sharon: Always Seizing the Offensive
    Former prime minister Ariel Sharon began every meeting I ever attended with U.S. officials with a greeting that always made me chuckle: “You are mostly welcome.” That welcome revealed his flawed English and perfectly reflected his ambivalence and apprehension about American efforts: He recognized that the United States was the best friend Israel had ever known. But he was ever suspicious that Washington might pressure him into something he did not want to do. Sharon could wipe the floor with U.S. diplomats he didn’t want to hear from, blocking them from enunciating a single talking point by subjecting them to a lengthy discourse on centuries of Jewish suffering. But I also witnessed a painfully shy man largely silent through lunch with the U.S. president, allowing his longstanding and deeply trusted aide, Dov Weissglas, carry the discussion with hilarious anecdotes. One of the most important lessons that Sharon applied to the battlefield and to politics was that Israel had to seize the initiative, not simply react to events. He, more than any, appreciated the country’s basic security dilemma: while possessing a strong and highly motivated army, Israel is dwarfed in size and numbers by an inhospitable region. For him, taking the initiative was the enduring legacy of Jewish history, of his military experience, and of his political success. With the country’s narrow waist of just fifteen kilometers and lack of territorial depth, Sharon embodied the doctrine of taking the offensive and rapidly moving the battle deep into enemy territory. This notion informed Sharon’s battlefield tactics in the 1948 war, his leadership of the infamous Unit 101, his inventive battlefield leadership in Sinai during the 1956 and 1967 wars, and the controversial invasion of Lebanon to eradicate the PLO from Beirut in 1982. The means were sometimes brutal and bloody. But Sharon applied the lesson of seizing the initiative to the political arena as well. As prime minister, Sharon unilaterally withdrew Israeli troops and some eight thousand settlers from the Gaza Strip in 2005. The move was bold and wrenching for the country. Sharon was forced to leave the Likud and form a new party to do it. But after seeing negotiations with the Palestinians fall apart, Sharon had become convinced that the United States or the international community would present Israel with peace plans he did not like. So he upended everything by launching his Gaza initiative, reversing his longstanding commitment to Israel’s presence there when he calculated that the costs of occupation far outweighed the benefits. I suspect that were Sharon with us today, he would come up with an imaginative initiative to drive efforts to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and counter the danger to his country posed by efforts to isolate or delegitimize Israel in various international fora and organizations. Sharon would likely calculate that for Israel to have maximum influence internationally to thwart Iran’s nuclear ambitions, it would require a daring new approach that had been fully coordinated in advance with the United States. Moreover, as his former advisers readily concede today, Sharon would recognize that the Palestinian Authority is successfully doing the one thing he always wanted them to do: taking real responsibility for fighting terrorism and providing security for themselves, and by extension Israel. We can never know how Sharon would have led Israel in today’s tumultuous Middle East. But we can be fairly certain that he would have not been purely reactive, given his view that the best defense was a strong offense. Somehow, it is likely he would have initiated a bold approach, most likely one that seems inconceivable to the rest of us today.
    Blog Post by Robert Danin January 11, 2014 Middle East Matters
  • United States
    This Week: Syrian Pre-Negotiations, Egyptian Convictions, and more U.S. Shuttle Diplomacy
    Significant Developments Syria. Representatives from various Syrian opposition groups-- including some Islamist factions-- met in Cordoba, Spain today to try to forge common ground before the scheduled peace talks with the Assad regime on January 22 in Switzerland. Secretary of State John Kerry floated the idea earlier this week that Iran could play a role from the sidelines, saying that, “Can their mission that is already in Geneva...be there in order to help the process? It may be that there are ways that could happen.” Meanwhile, the first shipment of chemical weapons materials were shipped out of Latakia on Tuesday, a week after the initial December 31 deadline. Bassam Sabbagh, Syria’s representative to the OPCW, alleged yesterday that rebels had carried out two unsuccessful attacks again chemical weapons depots. Also yesterday, Russia blocked a British-drafted Security Council statement that would have expressed outrage over the Assad regime’s brutal airstrikes in Aleppo that have reportedly killed more than 700 people since December 15. The UN’s human rights office announced on Tuesday that it has stopped updating the death toll from Syria’s civil war because of the inability to verify information. The last official count was of at least 100,000 people killed in July. Egypt. Egyptian courts today convicted 113 supporters of ousted president Morsi for destroying property and violating the recently passed protest law. Morsi’s own trial was postponed yesterday by Egyptian authorities who claimed inclement weather prevented Morsi’s transportation from Alexandria to Cairo. The new trial date is February 1. Meanwhile, Egypt’s foreign ministry summoned the Iranian charge d’affaires on Monday to protest earlier comments by an Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson expressing Iran’s concern about the rise in violence in Egypt. At least seventeen people were killed last Friday when supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood clashed with police. U.S. Foreign Policy Israel-Palestine. U.S. ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro told Israel Radio on Tuesday that Secretary of State Kerry would likely present a draft framework for continued negotiations in a few weeks or a month. Shapiro’s comments came a day after Kerry finished his tenth trip to Israel and the West Bank in a quest for a comprehensive peace agreement. Israeli prime minister Netanyahu reportedly refused Kerry’s request to agree to a formula to allow some Palestinian refugees to return. Kerry is slated to return to the Middle East next week, but a stop in Israel, earlier hinted at by U.S. officials, was not included on the announced travel itinerary. Saudi Arabian and Jordan.  In stops in Amman and Riyadh, Secretary of State Kerry reportedly asked the kings of Jordan and Saudi Arabia to support Israel’s demand that Palestinians recognize Israel as the nation-state of the Jewish people, a senior Israeli official said Tuesday. Kerry is reportedly exploring urging the Arab Peace Initiative committee to adopt adding language recognizing Israel as a Jewish State when he meets with API representatives next week in Paris. Libya. According to the New York Times, the State Department is preparing to officially apply the terrorist designation to two Libyan militant organizations and one individual in connection to the attack on the American diplomatic mission in Benghazi. The designations would apply to Ansar al-Sharia of Benghazi, Ansar al-Sharia of Derna and to Ahmed Abu Khattala, who is thought to have played a key role in the attack. The designation would allow U.S. officials to freeze financial assets. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Tunisia. Interim prime minister Ali Larayedh resigned today to make way for an independent caretaker government. Larayedh’s resignation is part of an agreement that the ruling Islamist Ennahda made with the opposition to hand over power after a new constitution had been written and an electoral commission had been set up to oversee elections. An independent authority was established yesterday to oversee new elections and the new constitution is on track to be approved by the January 14 deadline. Industry Minister Mehdi Jomaa will replace Larayedh and is expected to present his new cabinet next week. Iran. Iran and the EU held talks in Geneva today about implementing the November interim nuclear agreement. U.S. nuclear negotiator Wendy Sherman was also in Geneva for the talks. However, Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said just hours before that the talks showed the “enmity of America against Iran, Iranians, Islam and Muslims.” Libya. Prime Minister Ali Zeidan announced yesterday that he will reshuffle his cabinet in the next two weeks and bring in technocrats and independents. Members of the General National Congress tried to pass a no confidence vote on Tuesday, but discussions have been pushed back to next week.  Meanwhile, Zeidan also warned that Libya may sink oil tankers trying to enter eastern ports seized by armed rebels after the Libyan navy fired shots over the weekend to ward off a tanker headed toward the rebel-held ports. The Cyrenaica regional authority, which is seeking more autonomy in eastern Libya, took over three oil ports six months ago. Jordan. Prince Zeid Ra’ad Zeid al-Hussein, the Jordanian ambassador to the United Nations, called on UNSC members to visit Syrian refugee camps in Jordan on Monday in his first address to the press since Jordan assumed the rotating presidency of the UNSC. Prince Hussein also noted that, “there should not be a use of veto in certain situations where there is genocide, crimes against humanity, or war crimes." Iraq. Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki predicted victory in a televised address yesterday as the Iraqi army prepared to launch a major offensive against al-Qaeda militants who hold parts of Fallujah. Maliki acknowledged international support, saying that it is “giving us the confidence that we are moving on the right course.” Last week, members of the al-Qaeda-linked Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), which is also battling both Assad’s regime and more moderate rebels in Syria, overran parts of Fallujah and another city in Anbar province. Kuwait. Prime Minister Sheikh Jaber Al-Mubarak Al-Sabah swore in seven new cabinet ministers on Tuesday, including a new oil minister. The cabinet reshuffle follows an order from Kuwaiti emir Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah. It is the sixth cabinet since Prime Minister Sheikh Jaber Al-Mubarak Al-Sabah was appointed in November 2011. Gaza-West Bank. The Hamas government in Gaza released seven imprisoned members of Fatah yesterday in an effort to promote reconciliation. On Monday, Hamas prime minister Ismail Haniyeh announced that Fatah members could return to Gaza “without any preconditions,” but Ahmad Assad, a Fatah spokesman, dismissed the announcement as “superficial.” Bahrain. The Bahraini government suspended reconciliation talks with the Shiite opposition yesterday. The talks began last February, but five major opposition groups stopped attending meetings in September in protest of the arrest of Khalil al-Marzouq, a prominent member of main opposition group al-Wefaq.
    Blog Post by Robert Danin January 9, 2014 Middle East Matters
  • Middle East and North Africa
    Confidence-destroying Measures
    Working toward an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement, negotiators always seek "confidence-building measures" or CBMs. These moves are supposed to show good faith and convince the other side to undertake equal steps, or perhaps even more important to show the other side’s good faith. Today the Kerry negotiations use prisoner releases as such a CBM, designed mostly to keep PLO chairman Abbas at the conference table. But the prisoner releases are not CBMs; they are CDMs, confidence-destroying measures. With some American pressure, Prime Minister Netanyahu has released a third tranche of long-serving security prisoners --murderers, to be exact. The first thing this does is diminish confidence in the United States. After all, we never do this; we never release murderers or terrorists from our prisons for political reasons. That we expect Israel to do so teaches Israelis that we will ask Israel to take risks we would not take, and do not fully understand the security situation they face. And the releases certainly diminish confidence in the Palestinians as peace partners. Today’s Daily Telegraph in London explains why: Twenty-six inmates incarcerated since before the 1993 Oslo Peace Accords were given a hero’s welcome in the West Bank city of Ramallah after being freed from Israeli custody early on Tuesday. They were the third of four batches of prisoners Israel agreed to release last July, as part of the price for re-starting long-stalled peace talks with the Palestinians. But scenes of Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian Authority president, kissing and hugging each prisoner after their release provoked revulsion in Israel, with critics complaining that most of the inmates had been convicted of murdering Israelis. "Each one of us sees this and we ask ourselves, can we make peace with these people, who welcome murderers with flowers as if they were heroes," Silvan Shalom, the Israeli regional development minister, told Israel Radio. "If these are their heroes, if this is what they show the young generation, that these loathsome murderers are heroes, can we make peace with them? What kind of education is this for children?" Who is being released? Here are some of the stories, from the Jerusalem Post: Damouni Saad Mohammed Ahmed will be released to the Gaza Strip this week more than 20 years after he was convicted of taking part in the brutal lynching of IDF reservist Amnon Pomerantz, who took a wrong turn into a refugee camp in the coastal territory in 1990 – he was beaten to death before his car was set alight by firebombs. Shakir Alifu Musbach Nufal will be released to his home in the West Bank this week, some 27 years after he was sentenced to life in prison for his role in the kidnapping and murder of then- 21-year-old IDF soldier Shaltiel Akiva on Passover night in 1985. Two Fatah terrorists, Samarin Mustafa Kalib Asrar and Kra’an Azat Musa Musa, were convicted in the 1992 abduction and murder of Israeli soldier Tzvi Klein in the West Bank in 1992. Yosef Mahmad Haza Haza was only 17 when he and a friend murdered hikers Leah Elmakayis and Yossi Eliyahu at a forest on the Gilboa mountain range in 1985. Abed al Raba Nimr Jabril Issa is also set to be released following his conviction for the murder of hikers Revital Seri and Ron Levy in 1984. Fatah member Abu-Dahila Hasan Atik Sharif will be released to the West Bank 21 years after his arrest for the murder of Avi Osher, who employed him for 15 years at his Jordan Valley farm before Sharif beat and stabbed him to death. The list includes Amer Massoud Issa Rajib, one of those convicted in the murder of Ian Feinberg, who was hacked and shot to death in April 1993 in the Gaza Strip, where he had been working on economic revitalization plans for the area. One can perhaps forgive a murderer’s family for greeting him with kisses; one cannot forgive the highest authorities of the PA and PLO for doing so, and Silvan Shalom is right in asking what lesson this teaches all Palestinians. Palestinian leaders refuse to make any moral distinctions, separating those who committed crimes of violence from those who did not nor even --the very least that might be expected-- separating those who killed soldiers from those who killed civilians. The official Palestinian glorification of those who murdered Israelis is now the backdrop to Secretary’s arrival in Israel today to advance "peace."  
    Blog Post by Elliott Abrams January 1, 2014 Pressure Points
  • Middle East and North Africa
    Protests About Palestinians
    There were protests this week about some construction notices issued by the Government of Israel. In tandem with the release of murderers from Israeli prisons--something the United States has indefensibly pushed--the Netanyahu government has sought to appease complaints within Israel by announcing new construction in settlements. Mind you, whether the construction will actually take place, or when, is unclear; the protests come nevertheless. The New York Times reported that Palestinian leaders threatened that any new settlement activity could lead them to seek membership and sue Israel in the International Criminal Court, a move they had promised not to take during peace talks that started this summer. European diplomats warned the Israelis in a series of high-level meetings over the past week against pairing the prisoner release with a construction announcement, as was done twice before. The Jerusalem Post reported that The European Union will strongly object to any new announcements of Israeli settlement construction in the West Bank, a senior EU diplomat told Channel 10....The unnamed diplomat said "there will be very little understanding from the European governments" if Israel plans to announce further construction beyond the Green Line next week following the release of a third group of Palestinian security prisoners. "Israel needs expect a harsh reaction from the European governments if it intends to go in that direction," the official said. What makes these threats and protests noteworthy is the context. For the Daily Star of Beirut reported this today: At least 15 Palestinians have died of hunger since September in a besieged refugee camp in the Syrian capital Damascus, the UN agency for Palestinian refugees told AFP on Monday. "Reports have come in over the weekend that at least five Palestinian refugees in the besieged refugee camp of Yarmuk in Damascus have died because of malnutrition, bringing the total number of reported cases to 15," UN Relief and Works Agency spokesman Chris Gunness told AFP. He warned of a deteriorating situation in the camp, where some 20,000 Palestinians are trapped, with limited food and medical supplies. No threats from the EU about this. No reports of a "harsh reaction." No "series of high level meetings." Israel announces plans for constructing homes and the threat to Palestinians gets the EU into high gear. In Syria, Palestinians starve to death and no one at "high levels" in Europe appears to notice. This is not "new news," of course; it has long been obvious that most of the tears about the suffering of Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza are crocodile tears. But the events this week certainly drive the point home: more attention is paid, more protests are lodged, when Israel issues a press release than when Syria starves Palestinians to death.  
    Blog Post by Elliott Abrams December 31, 2013 Pressure Points
  • Middle East and North Africa
    The Kerry Negotiations
    Secretary of State Kerry continues his "peace process" efforts at hammering out a comprehensive deal, or at least a framework deal, between Israelis and Palestinians. Two recent articles are reminders that he is unlikely to succeed. In the first, The Arab League says it rejects a continued Israeli troop presence on the eastern border of a future state of Palestine, a proposal Palestinians say was floated by the U.S. earlier this month. Arab League chief Nabil Elaraby said Saturday no peace deal would work with Israeli presence in a Palestinian state. Why is this critical? Because Palestinian president Abbas is hiding behind the Arab League, as the second article shows: Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas informed the Arab League about the upcoming proposal, saying it would contain US suggestions regarding the borders of the future Palestinian state, Sbeih said. Abbas told the League that "once he receives the American proposal he will not respond but will present it to Arab nations to make a joint decision." In other words, Abbas won’t anger Kerry by saying "no." He will have the Arab League say no, and then he can tell Kerry "my hands are tied." That second article, from the Palestinian news agency Ma’an, also sets out Abbas’s views: - Abbas would accept a Palestinian state with the entirety of East Jerusalem as its capital, with limited land swaps as long as the lands being traded were of equal value. - He would accept an incremental withdrawal of Israeli troops from Palestinian land, allowing them up to three years to leave. - He would reject the idea of any permanent Israeli military presence in the Jordan Valley, but would welcome an international peacekeeping presence. - He would refuse to recognize Israel as a Jewish state. - He would reject any interim agreement, calling instead for a final solution. - He would reject any proposal that required Palestine to be an unarmed state, but said he would not get involved in an "arms race." Perhaps those are negotiating positions, meant to abandoned as soon as real talks begin, but I doubt it--and that is why a comprehensive deal between Israel and the PLO is not in the cards. For example when Abbas talks of "the entirety of east Jerusalem" he includes areas that Israel will not give up--and perhaps he even means the Western Wall and Jewish Quarter of Jerusalem, which were after all part of Jordanian-ruled Jerusalem until 1967. If he rejects an interim agreement, he is rejecting the only form of agreement that’s realistic today. And as to Palestinian arms, it has been agreed for many years that a Palestinian state would have to be "demilitarized." It isn’t clear what that means, nor what he means by rejecting "unarmed." It has long been understood that that state would have police forces and some equivalent to a national gendarmerie, but would not have an air force or an army with heavy weaponry--and would not have military alliances with other states that could threaten Israel. The only good news here is Abbas’s statement that while Israel could not have a "permanent" military presence in the Jordan Valley, he appears to understand that withdrawal will not be immediate.  Abbas suggests three years; Secretary Kerry has apparently suggested 10 or 15. Of greater interest are the news stories reporting that it was not Israel but Jordan that convinced Kerry that the IDF must stay that long to protect the security of Israel, Jordan, and the new state of Palestine. It must have been a wake-up call for Kerry to hear that line not in Jerusalem, but in Amman. Kerry is apparently seeking a sort of "framework agreement," meaning that he understands a comprehensive agreement is currently impossible but the Palestinians won’t accept an interim agreement. In my view a framework agreement is a bad choice. Here’s why: in a final agreement both sides make extremely difficult concessions and compromises but get a lot for it. The Palestinians in theory get their sovereign state, and the Israelis get peace with all the Arab states and an end of the conflict and all claims against them. In a framework agreement, the concessions and compromises are announced so the political cost is very high--but neither side gets anything for it. They pay the price and get no reward for doing so. Why would any political leader go for that? It has been suggested that if Kerry outlines a framework agreement and the sides both reject it (i.e., say they cannot accept all of it), the EU will introduce the text as a UN resolution. That’s plausible, but where does it get anyone? Not one step closer to peace.  
    Blog Post by Elliott Abrams December 23, 2013 Pressure Points
  • United States
    This Week: Syrian War Crimes, Iranian Talks, and Egyptian Acquitals
    Significant Developments Syria. UN investigators reported today that the Assad regime has been conducting extensive and systemic abductions that constitute a war crime and “widespread campaign of terror against the civilian population.” Amnesty International released a separate report alleging widespread torture and executions and documenting secret prisons operated by the Islamic State of Iraq in the Levant (ISIL) throughout rebel-held areas of Syria. A large-scale regime air offensive against the Aleppo area entered its fifth day today with raids against outlying villages. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that makeshift barrel bombs filled with TNT were dropped from helicopters on the city, and had killed as many as one hundred and sixty-one people between Sunday and Wednesday. Meanwhile, Russian and Chinese officials announced today the deployment of ships and material intended to be used in the transport, protection, and destruction of Syria’s chemical weapons. On Tuesday, the executive council of the OPCW approved an official plan for the destruction of Syria’s chemical stockpiles, though it acknowledged that “technical factors” could cause delays in the timeline. Kurdish officials also announced today their desire for a separate Kurdish delegation to January 22 peace talks now slated for Montreux, Switzerland, arguing that the Assad regime and the rebels hold similar views with regards to Syria’s Kurdish population. Iran. Talks between Iran and the P5+1 representatives resumed today in Geneva after they were cut short last week. This round of talks between both nuclear and sanctions experts aims to translate the November interim accord into an actionable plan. The Iranian deputy foreign minister Abbas Araqachi said that while the discussions are slated to last two days, they could extend into next week. French foreign minister Laurent Fabius expressed little confidence in the prospects of success, telling the Wall Street Journal yesterday, “It is unclear if the Iranians will accept to definitively abandon any capacity of getting a weapon or only agree to interrupt the nuclear program.” Egypt. An Egyptian court acquitted former prime minister Ahmed Shafiq along with Gamal and Alaa Mubarak of corruption charges today, though the Mubarak brothers still face the same charges in additional cases. On Wednesday, ousted president Mohammed Morsi was charged with conspiring with Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas and of leaking state secrets to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. Meanwhile, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee passed the “Egypt Assistance Reform Act of 2013” yesterday by a vote of sixteen to one. The act would ease tightened controls on aid to Egypt, which was significantly reduced after the July 3 coup and the subsequent military crackdown. Assistance will now be conditional to Egypt’s adherence to its peace treaty with Israel, counter-terrorism cooperation, and undertaking steps towards political  reform. The law provides the president authority to waive restrictions for 180 days should the administration determine that doing so is in the vital national interest of the United States. U.S. Foreign Policy Syria. U.S. ambassador to Syria Robert Ford said yesterday that members of the Islamic Front had declined an invitation to meet with U.S. officials. The Assad regime called Washington’s diplomatic overture to the group, which it considers a terrorist organization, “reprehensible.” The Islamic Front is an organization of six major Islamist rebel groups and was responsible for last week’s seizure of a weapons warehouse belonging to the opposition’s Supreme Military Council. The seizure of the warehouse prompted the United States to halt nonlethal aid to Syrian rebels. Iran Sanctions. Senators Robert Menendez and Mark Kirk introduced a bipartisan bill today that would increase sanctions on Iran should current negotiations fail or if Iran violates the interim agreement. The bill has twenty-six sponsors, thirteen Democrats and thirteen Republicans. The Obama administration had lobbied the Congress not to propose new sanctions lest they threaten last month’s agreement with Iran. However, supporters of the legislation claim that it will strengthen the United States’ negotiating leverage. Menendez defended the bill, saying that, “current sanctions brought Iran to the negotiating table and a credible threat of future sanctions will require Iran to cooperate and act in good faith at the negotiating table.” The Senate is expected to vote on the bill in January at the earliest. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Turkey. Five high-ranking Istanbul police department officials were dismissed yesterday following controversy over the widening anti-corruption crack-down throughout Turkey. Several prominent businessmen and the sons of three cabinet ministers were also recently detained. The investigation, which was launched by the chief prosecutor’s office in Istanbul, discovered $4.5 million in shoe boxes in the home of the chief executive of the state-run Halkbank. The raids are believed to be encouraged by powerful members of the Gulen Movement that is working against Erdogan in the run-up to elections next year. Lebanon. Lebanese and Israeli military officials met on Monday in an effort to reduce tensions along Lebanon’s southern border following several cross border exchanges of gunfire. Two Lebanese soldiers were shot early on Monday by the Israeli army one day after a Lebanese sniper killed an Israeli soldier. Meanwhile, a suicide bomber detonated a car bomb at a Hezbollah post in Labweh on Tuesday where Hezbollah fighters have been transiting to and from Syria where in support of the Assad regime. Israel-Palestine. The Israeli military announced today that it had shot and killed a member of the Palestinian security forces, identified as Saleh Yassin during a raid in the West Bank. Yassin was wanted in connection to several recent shooting incidents with the Israeli military and reportedly fired at the Israeli soldiers. Israeli troops also shot and killed a suspected member of Islamic Jihad yesterday in the Jenin refugee camp when shooting began during a raid. Meanwhile on Wednesday, Prime Minister Netanyahu said that Israelis “will not stop, even for a moment, building our country and becoming stronger, and developing...the settlement enterprise” in remarks to the Likud party. Iraq. Attacks on Shiite pilgrims killed at least thirty-four people today on the road to Karbala, south of Baghdad. An attack on Wednesday killed five people, though it would likely have been more devastating had a police officer not embraced the bomber, shielding others from the explosion. A total of four attacks near Baghdad on Monday and Tuesday killed thirty-two pilgrims. Estimates by the AFP place the total number of those killed in Iraq at 6,550 this year alone. This Week in History This week marks the sixty-seventh anniversary of the collapse of the Kurdish Republic of Mahabad in northern Iran. While occupying parts of Iran during the second World War, the Soviet Union had built close ties with sympathetic leaders in northern Iran. Both the Azeris and Kurds held long-standing disputes with the Tehran government, and broke away in 1946 with Soviet support and encouragement. The Republic of Mahabad was established on January 22, 1946 by a number of prominent Kurdish tribal leaders, including Mullah Mostafa Barzani, father of Massoud Barzani, the current president of Kurdish northern Iraq.  The republic allowed the Kurds to exercise autonomy and to speak and teach their own language. However, Iranian troops entered Mahabad on December 17, 1946 trying and convicting the Kurdish leadership of treason. They were hanged in Mahabad’s main square in March of 1947.
    Blog Post by Robert Danin December 19, 2013 Middle East Matters