Middle East and North Africa

Israel

Are Israel and Iran Headed for All-Out War?
The killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and targeted assassination of a Hezbollah military official in Beirut bring Israel and Iran, through its proxies, closer to war.

Expert Brief by Steven A. Cook Jul 31, 2024

What Is Hamas?
The Palestinian militant group struggled to govern the Gaza Strip before launching a surprise attack on Israel in 2023. Now facing Israel’s military campaign to destroy it, Hamas’s future is in doubt, as is Gaza’s.

Backgrounder by Kali Robinson Oct 17, 2024

How Much of a Threat Does Hamas Still Pose to Israel?
Israel has made eliminating the threat from the Gaza-based militant group a central war aim, but it’s not entirely clear at what point that condition will be met.  

Expert Brief by Bruce Hoffman Jun 14, 2024

Why Israel Wants to Draft the Ultra-Orthodox Into the Military
As Israel fights its war in the Gaza Strip, changes to a decades-old draft exemption for its fastest-growing demographic group threaten to fracture Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition and exacerbate the country’s internal rifts.

In Brief by Simone Lipkind Jul 31, 2024

U.S. Aid to Israel in Four Charts
Israel has long been the leading recipient of U.S. foreign aid, including military assistance. That aid has come under heightened scrutiny amid Israel’s conflicts with Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran.

Article by Jonathan Masters and Will Merrow Nov 13, 2024

  • Middle East and North Africa
    Facts on the Ground: the Israeli Settlement Slowdown
    Criticism of construction in Israeli settlements has grown in the last five years, not least in Washington--but in this same period Israel has been focusing more and more of the construction in less and less of the West Bank. In a new article at the Foreign Affairs web site entitled "Facts on the Ground: Inside Israel’s Settlement Slowdown," Uri Sadot and I explain the story Here are some excerpts: Under Netanyahu’s current government, construction outside the so-called major settlement blocs -- the areas most likely to remain part of Israel in a final peace settlement -- has steadily decreased. Over the past five years, the number of homes approved for construction in the smaller settlements has amounted to half of what it was during Netanyahu’s first premiership in 1996–99. Moreover, the homes the government is now approving for construction are positioned further west, mostly in the major blocs or in areas adjacent to the so-called Green Line, the de facto border separating Israel from the West Bank. The 1,500 units that Israel announced plans for earlier this month were also in the major blocs and in East Jerusalem, continuing the pattern... Israeli construction is now concentrated in Jerusalem and the major blocs -- in the two percent of the West Bank territory that the Palestinian leadership was apparently willing to accept as Israeli in 2008. The Israelis are still constructing beyond the security fence and in areas inside the fence that will undoubtedly be hotly contested in any future negotiation over a final agreement. But there is a paradox in the increasingly frequent denunciations of Israeli construction in the United States and Europe: they are coming at the same time as Israeli construction has become increasingly limited to areas that even Palestinians acknowledge will ultimately remain part of Israel. Accusations that Netanyahu is reluctant to negotiate for peace bury the true headline: that his government has unilaterally reduced Israeli settlement construction and largely constrained it to a narrow segment of territory.... Israel is still constructing, but not in a way that will prevent a realistic peace settlement.
    Blog Post by Elliott Abrams June 19, 2014 Pressure Points
  • Iran
    Our New Ally Iran?
    Will the crisis in Iraq lead to a rapprochement with Iran? Will the effort to strike a nuclear deal expand into a broader agreement? That is the nightmare of many of our allies in the Middle East, including the Gulf Arab states, Jordan, and Israel. My colleague Max Boot in his blog today explains why it is a dangerous idea to think that we have common interests with the world’s largest state sponsor of terror.  At the Commentary Magazine web site, Max has written "Getting Fooled by Iran in Iraq." Here is an excerpt: Is it really necessary to point out that letting Iranian forces dominate Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq is a win for Iran–not for the United States?.... Absent a much more active American role to oppose Iranian designs, the mullahs will be able to live out their dreams of regional hegemony at relatively small cost. Is this actually in America’s interest because Iran as a Shiite nation opposes Sunni extremists? No, because that analysis is far too simplistic....Iran has made common cause in the past with Sunni extremists in Hamas, the Taliban, and al-Qaeda, among others. It’s true that Iran doesn’t want to see ISIS or the Nusra Front, another al-Qaeda-affiliated group, dominate Iraq or Syria. But that’s because it would like to see those states dominated by its own proxies who are every bit as bad.... This is not an outcome remotely in American interests....the increasing Iranian prominence will only drive Sunnis, who constitute the region’s vast majority, into greater militancy. Do you honestly think Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE will stand by and watch Iran and its stalking horses take control of Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon? Not a chance. While some may take satisfaction from Sunni and Shiite extremists clashing, the problem is that they could both win–i.e., both sides could gain control of significant territory which will then become terrorist states. That is what has already happened in Syria and it is now likely to happen in Iraq as well. While the Iranians would prefer obviously that ISIS not control any territory in Iraq or Syria, they may well be willing to live with some ISIS control if the payoff for them is that their proxies consolidate control over what remains of those two states. Put bluntly, the U.S. interest is in creating democratic, stable, and pro-Western regimes; the Iranian interest is in creating fundamentalist, terrorist-supporting, Shiite-extremist regimes. There is no overlap of interest except when we make the mistake of backing Iranian-aligned leaders such as Nouri al-Maliki. There is little to add. The Obama administration has sought a grand rapprochement with Iran, once upon a time called "engagement," since January 2009. Apparently it still does. But the current path leads only to enhancing Iran’s regional power, and to alienating and endangering our own allies in the region. Iran is an enemy of the United States and of our allies in the Middle East, as its own leaders repeat regularly in speeches (in Farsi; the nice op-eds in English don’t say that). To work with Iran to enlarge its influence in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq will further undermine American influence--and not only in the Middle East. Around the world nations dependent on our willingness to recognize and resist Russian and Chinese efforts at hegemony will also be chilled to see such a policy develop. It was bad enough to see the President decide on a calendar- (and political calendar-) based timetable for withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan, ignoring conditions on the ground. To enlist Iran in efforts now to solve problems to which the total withdrawal from Iraq led demonstrates the inability to learn from past errors--or to admit them, or even to recognize the possibility of error. But all the spin the White House can muster will not change the nature of the unfolding disaster in Syria and Iraq.
    Blog Post by Elliott Abrams June 16, 2014 Pressure Points
  • United States
    This Week: Iraq’s Crisis, Syria’s Gloating, and Israeli-Palestinian Prayers
    Significant Developments Iraq. Prime minister Nouri al-Maliki called on parliament today to impose a state of emergency in Iraq, but then failed to convene a quorum needed to approve it. Maliki’s move came as militants from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) threatened to move on Baghdad today after a surprise offense against northern Iraq on Monday in which Isis fighters took Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city, sending over half a million residents fleeing. According to the Wall Street Journal, Iran deployed Revolutionary Guard forces today to help Maliki’s troops regain control of Tikrit which was lost yesterday. Meanwhile, Kurdish forces took advantage today of fleeing Iraqi troops to take control of the northern Iraqi city of Kirkuk. President Barack Obama expressed concern today about what he called the “emergency situation” in Iraq, and said he is not ruling anything out, but also said that this should be a “wake-up call for the Iraqi government” about the need for political compromise between Shiites and Sunnis in Iraq. White House spokesperson Jay Carney made it clear, however, that the administration is not contemplating ground troops. The Obama administration reportedly turned down Maliki’s request last month for airstrikes against militant staging areas in Iraq to help combat the rising tide of violence and to prevent ISIS fighters from moving between Syria and Iraq. Syria. President Bashar al-Assad said today that current and former U.S. officials were trying to contact his government, reflecting a Western shift in position on the Syria conflict  motivated by a fear of terrorism. Assad also ruled out further talks with the Syrian opposition. Meanwhile, the Syrian regime began releasing prisoners held in government jails Tuesday, a day after President Assad’s ambiguous declaration of general amnesty. Former UN and Arab League special envoy for Syria, Lakhdar Brahimi, warned in an interview with Der Spiegel earlier this week that there is a “serious risk” that the crisis in Syria will blow up the surrounding region and that Syria will likely become a failed state. Brahimi highlighted the threat to Syria’s neighbors and said, “Your countries are terribly scared that the few Europeans that are there may come back and create all sorts of problems. So just imagine what the feelings are next door!” Israel-Palestine. Pope Francis gathered Israeli president Shimon Peres and Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas at the Vatican on Sunday for a prayer summit, in his words, to “seek the things that unite, so as to overcome the things that divide.” Peres and Abbas talked for fifteen minutes and then embraced. Today, Abbas’s office released a statement condemning Israel for escalating violence with a targeted airstrike on Gaza yesterday that killed a Palestinian militant. The airstrike came in response to the firing of a rocket from Gaza. Prime Minister Netanyahu said: “Our policy is clear - kill those who rise up to kill us.” U.S. Foreign Policy Iran. With the July 20 deadline for reaching an agreement over Iran’s nuclear program looming, a delegation of senior U.S. officials led by Deputy Secretary of State William Burns met with Iranian negotiators in Geneva on Monday and Tuesday to try to break the current stalemate. Iran’s Foreign Minister, Mohammad Zarif, called the talks “deadlocked.” Next week, the P5+1 countries and Iran are set to meet to continue negotiating over the program’s parameters. There has been little known progress achieving compromise on the number and condition of the centrifuges Iran will be allowed to maintain. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Egypt. President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi asked Prime Minister Ibrahim Mehleb, who will retain his post under Sisi, to form a committee to develop a national strategy to address sexual assault yesterday. President Sisi also paid a hospital visit to a victim of sexual assault yesterday to apologize in person for her attack during his inauguration celebration last week. A Youtube video of the attack had sparked major shock and outrage in Egypt and abroad. Three days before Sisi’s inauguration, interim president Adly Mansour changed Egypt’s penal code to define sexual harassment as a crime. Israel. Former Knesset Speaker and Likud Party member Reuven Rivlin was elected on Tuesday to serve as Israel’s tenth president. Rivlin won with 63 of 116 votes in the Knesset runoff vote against Meir Sheetrit of Hatnuah. He will be sworn in on July 24. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu—who opposed Rivlin’s candidacy and worked to persuade others to run against him—met with and congratulated the president-elect yesterday. Yemen. President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi replaced five ministers of his cabinet yesterday, a day after attacks on national power lines resulted in a country-wide blackout. Thousands of citizens took to the streets in protest demanding the government’s removal in response to the power outage. State news agency Saba reported that this was the third attack of its kind this month. Libya. Violence continued in Libya yesterday despite reports of a ceasefire as forces loyal to renegade General Khalifa Hiftar conducted air strikes against three northern areas of Benghazi and shelled residential areas outside the city.  
    Blog Post by Robert Danin June 12, 2014 Middle East Matters
  • Middle East and North Africa
    The New Palestinian Government
    In this week’ s edition of  The Weekly Standard, an article entitled "Dangerous Unity,"  I discuss the new Palestinian government. Here’s the basic argument: The new PA government is a non-party, "technocratic" cabinet-- and not a Hamas government or one with Hamas participation. For that reason I think the Israeli official reaction is a mistake: it treats this government exactly as it would treat a true coalition government of Fatah and Hamas, where Hamas held seats in the PA parliament and held ministerial or vice-ministerial positions in the government. The problem is that such a real Hamas role may well be coming, after the PA elections planned for later this year. If Hamas gets a majority, as it did in 2006, the PA would be an entity controlled by a terrorist group--exactly as happened in 2006. If Hamas does not win a majority but has a strong representation in the parliament and a presence in the ministries, we are again faced with a terrorist role in governing the PA. Those are the real dangers ahead, and the current situation is different. The two should not be confused. In 2006 we in the Bush administration made a mistake in countenancing Hamas’s participation in the elections when it refused to disarm. The United States should not make that same mistake twice, as I explain at length in the Weekly Standard article. Hamas participation is a violation of the Oslo Accords; makes future peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians impossible; rewards terrorism; and violates basic democratic precepts that should apply globally. The latter point is key: no terrorist group should be permitted to contest an election while it remains armed (which gives it unfair electoral advantages, as with Hezbollah in Lebanon) and refuses to commit itself to disarmament. Remember that power-sharing in Northern Ireland was always the goal--but only if and when the IRA agreed to disarm, which eventually happened as part of the Belfast Agreement. In my view the new PA government does not present a crisis. But the plan to permit Hamas to run in the coming election does, and the United States should say so now--and announce our determined opposition.       tt
    Blog Post by Elliott Abrams June 10, 2014 Pressure Points
  • United States
    This Week: Israeli-Palestinian Escalation, Egyptian and Syrian Elections
    Significant Developments Israel-Palestine.  Palestinian officials responded strongly to Israel’s announcement last night of plans for nearly 1,500 new housing units. Nabil Abu Rudeineh, spokesman for president Mahmoud Abbas, warned that Palestine will “respond in an unprecedented way,” while PLO Executive Committee member Hanan Ashrawi released a statement today threatening to go the UN. American ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro also condemned the settlement announcement. Israel’s housing minister, Uri Ariel, called the settlement announcement a “proper Zionist response to the establishment of the Palestinian terror cabinet.” Israel’s settlement announcement comes only days after Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas swore in a technocratic government that was the result of the most recent Fatah-Hamas reconciliation agreement. Yesterday, Secretary of State John Kerry said that the U.S. decision to work with the new PA government does not mean that the United States recognizes it, “because that would recognize a state and there is no state. This is not an issue of recognition of a government.” Egypt. General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi on Tuesday was declared the official winner of Egypt’s presidential race. According to the country’s election commission, Sisi won 96.91 percent of the vote. He will be sworn into office on Sunday. Meanwhile, the trial of twenty Al Jazeera journalists continued today in Egypt with prosecutors calling for maximum sentences for all defendants. The sixteen Egyptian defendants have been charged with joining the Muslim Brotherhood and could face twenty-five years in prison. The four foreign journalists have been charged with spreading false news and collaborating for which they could face fifteen years imprisonment. Syria. Bashar al-Assad secured a landslide victory this week in Syria’s “presidential election.” Assad garnered 88.7 percent of the vote with a 73 percent turnout, according to the head of the country’s Supreme Constitutional Court. Secretary of State John Kerry, visiting Lebanon yesterday, called the election “meaningless.” Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexander Lukashevich claimed that although circumstances prevent an election that would be “100 percent democratic,” the Syrian vote sends a “legitimate” and clear message in support of Assad. U.S. Foreign Policy Kerry in Lebanon. Secretary of State John Kerry made a surprise visit to Lebanon yesterday where he announced $290 million in new aid to those affected by the conflict in Syria. Kerry said that $51 million of the assistance will go to help Lebanon deal with Syrian refugees. The World Bank recently estimated that the Syrian conflict has cost Lebanon $7.5 billion since 2011. Kerry’s visit marked the first visit by a secretary of state to Lebanon in five years. Kerry also expressed his concern about the Lebanese parliament’s delay in electing a president, calling the political stalemate “deeply troubling.” Syria. Former U.S. ambassador to Syria Robert Ford told the PBS Newshour on Tuesday that he resigned from the State Department because U.S. policy on Syria was moving too slowly and that he could no longer defend it publicly. Ambassador Ford called for the U.S. to put more pressure on the Assad regime, saying, “Policy has not brought them to the point where they feel they have to negotiate. They’re not under enough pressure, so we need to think about how to escalate pressure.” While We Were Looking Elsewhere Yemen. A ceasefire between government forces and Houthi rebels began yesterday, after three days of fighting—the latest in a protracted contestation for control of the city of Omran. Rebel leader Abdel-Malik al-Houthi proposed the ceasefire Tuesday night, offering to free government soldiers in exchange for the protection of the city’s residents. Over one hundred casualties have resulted from clashes. Libya. The Supreme Court announced today that it considered the election of Prime Minister Ahmed Maiteg by Libya’s parliament in May invalid due to the absence of a quorum at the time.  Should the ruling stand, interim prime minister Abdullah al-Thinni, who had been set to hand over power, will remain in power. A final ruling is expected on June 9. The announcement follows a week of unrest in Libya, including a suicide bomb attack on the home of renegade General Khalifa Hiftar yesterday, which killed four and injured several others. Earlier in the day, a rocket struck Maiteg’s offices. Lebanon. Syrian information minister Omran al-Zoubi attacked Lebanon’s decision last weekend to revoke the refugee status of Syrians who travel back to Syria. Zoubi claimed that it was a strategy to prevent over 500,000 Syrians from voting in their country’s elections on Tuesday. Kuwait-Iran. Kuwaiti oil minister Ali Al-Omair announced on Sunday that his country is seeking to reach agreement with Iran to secure natural gas. The announcement was made during Kuwaiti Amir Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah’s visit to Iran, the first by a Kuwaiti ruler since the 1979 Iranian revolution. Saudi Arabia. Saudi minister of agriculture Fahad Balghunaim announced today that the country will test camels for Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS). The Saudi Ministry of Health Tuesday announced a 50 percent increase in deaths resulting from MERS after ordering a review of data last month. The new figures indicate 688 confirmed cases and 282 deaths, while the Ministry had previously reported 575 and 190 respectively.
    Blog Post by Robert Danin June 5, 2014 Middle East Matters
  • United States
    This Week: Egyptians Vote, Libyans Demonstrate, and the Pope Visits the Holy Land
    Significant Developments Egypt. Security forces on Friday dispersed demonstrations across the country of Morsi supporters protesting General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s victory in this week’s presidential election. Sisi reportedly won nearly 95 percent of the vote. Presidential candidate Hamdeen Sabbahi, who came in third in 2012, conceded defeat yesterday, calling the official voter turnout figures an “insult to Egyptians’ intelligence.” The unofficial results show voter turnout at 46 percent, after the election was extended at the last minute to a third day to drum up participation. International observers cast doubt on the fairness of the elections; Eric Bjornlund, president of Democracy International, declared, “Egypt’s repressive political environment made a genuinely democratic presidential election impossible.” Lebanon’s former prime minister, Saad Hariri, congratulated Sisi saying that “Choosing you president for Egypt is a blessed step toward the restoration of Egypt’s leading role in the region and the Arab world.” Libya.  Libya’s political crisis continued this week, as thousands of people across Libya rallied to express support for renegade General Hiftar, who launched an offensive two weeks ago to purge the country of Islamist militias. On Tuesday, unidentified armed assailants attacked the home of Prime Minister Ahmed Maiteg, who was officially appointed on Monday by an Islamist-dominated parliament. Interim prime minister Abdullah al-Thinni requested a legal ruling on Wednesday on whether had to hand over power to Maiteg, who was elected on May 4 in a vote boycotted by many secular lawmakers. Meanwhile, Mohammed al-Zahawi, the head of Ansar al-Sharia, issued a threat on Tuesday to “open the gates of hell on [Hiftar] and the region” in response to Hiftar’s crackdown in Benghazi. Following Zahawi’s threat, the State Department recommended all U.S. citizens leave Libya immediately. The same day, U.S. defense officials announced that the USS Bataan, with approximately one thousand Marines aboard, was moved into the Mediterranean to help with evacuations if necessary. Jordan-Israel-Palestine. Pope Francis concluded a three-day trip to the Middle East on Monday, after visiting Jordan, Palestine, and Israel. The Pope left with a pledge from Israeli president Shimon Peres and Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas to join him to pray for peace in the Vatican on June 8. In an interview with PBS Newshour on Saturday, I discussed the Pope’s delicate balancing act in the region. U.S. Foreign Policy Obama. President Obama attempted to lay out a foreign policy vision in a speech at West Point on Wednesday, focusing on terrorism as the most direct threat to the United States for the foreseeable future. Obama said that it is necessary to develop a strategy to match the new threat of a decentralized al-Qaeda network. He also addressed Syria in the context of counterterrorism, calling it a “critical focus of this effort,” and declared that he will work with Congress to increase support for the Syrian opposition. Israel-Palestine. Secretary of State John Kerry defended the Obama administration’s foreign policy in an interview with PBS Newshour, saying that “we are as engaged, more engaged than in any time in American history.” Speaking about the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, Kerry acknowledged that he is disappointed that a deal wasn’t reached by his self-imposed April 29 deadline, but declared that, “my job is to push it forward and my job is to try to find the optimism and the possibilities, not to give up. And I refuse to give up.” While We Were Looking Elsewhere Syria. The UN Security Council is reportedly considering a draft resolution that would authorize aid deliveries into Syria at four points without government consent. UN deputy aid chief Kyung-wha Kang updated the UNSC yesterday on the status of the unanimously approved aid resolution that was passed in February, saying that it has failed to make a difference because nearly 90 percent of the aid goes to government-held areas. The new resolution was drafted by Australia, Luxembourg, and Jordan, and falls under the UN Charter’s Chapter VII, which would make it enforceable with military action. Meanwhile, the first suicide bombing in Syria by an American citizen was reported on Tuesday. The man, known in Syria as Abu Huraira al-Amriki, carried out a truck bombing in the province of Idlib on Sunday. Intelligence officials say that about three thousand Westerners have traveled to Syria to fight, including nearly one hundred Americans. Palestine. Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas asked Palestinian Authority prime minister Rami Hamdallah to form a new transitional government of independent technocrats yesterday. The new government aims to unite Fatah and Hamas under the terms of the unity pact they signed on April 23, and meet the five-week deadline for the formation of such a government. Palestinian officials say that they expect the new government to be announced within a few days, although disagreement reportedly remains over the candidate for the future foreign minister. Iran-Saudi Arabia. Iran’s deputy foreign minister Iranian deputy foreign minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian Iranian deputy foreign minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian Iranian deputy foreign minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian welcomed yesterday an invitation from Saudi Arabia to attend next month’s meeting of foreign ministers of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation countries in Jeddah. Tunisia. Gunmen killed four policemen in an attack on the home of Tunisian interior minister Lofti Ben Jeddou in Kasserine on Wednesday. Ben Jeddou was not at home during the attack, but responded the next day by saying that Tunisia is “still at war with terrorism and we should expect some losses.” No group has claimed responsibility yet, but the attackers are suspected to be Islamist militants.
    Blog Post by Robert Danin May 30, 2014 Middle East Matters
  • United States
    This Week: Syria’s Friends, Libya’s Military, and Iran’s Negotiations
    Significant Developments Syria. The Friends of Syria group met in London yesterday and issued a communique that denounced Syrian president Bashar al-Assad’s plan to hold elections on June 3 and agreed to increase support to the moderate opposition. Secretary of State John Kerry expressed frustration about the Syrian regime’s control over access to international humanitarian aid and said he had seen data indicating the Syrian government recent use of chlorine as a chemical weapon. He warned that “there will be consequences” if the chemical attacks are confirmed, but then added, “We’re not going to pin ourselves down to a precise date, time, manner of action.” On Tuesday, Lakhdar Brahimi, the UN envoy for Syria, announced that he will resign at the end of May. Brahimi told a press conference that “we haven’t been able to help [the Syrian people] as much as they deserve, as much as we should have.” Meanwhile, Abu Mohammed al-Adnani, the spokesperson for ISIS, released a recording on Sunday that rejected al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri’s call to leave Syria. Al-Adnani also accused Zawahiri of dividing the mujahedeen that Osama bin Laden had united. Libya. Military forces led by General Khalifa Hifter, a retired general who fought Qaddafi in 2011, launched an offensive against two Islamist militias earlier today. Libya’s army chief of staff, Mohamed al-Hejazi, said that the action had not been officially sanctioned, but army helicopters and jets reportedly participated in the operation. The Libyan government has threatened legal action against Hifter, who appeared in an online video in February calling on the military to overthrow the Libyan government in order “rescue” the country. Meanwhile, Jordanian ambassador to Libya, Fawaz al-Itan, was released and returned to Amman on Tuesday after being abducted in Tripoli last month by armed assailants. The AFP reported that Al-Itan was released in exchange for Mohammed Saeed al-Darsi, who was jailed for life in 2007 for plotting to blow up the Jordanian airport. Iran. American officials expressed concern today about the slow pace in the fourth round of negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, which began on Wednesday in Vienna. Iranian foreign minister and EU foreign policy chief Cathy Ashton reportedly began trying to write a draft final agreement, but have not made significant progress. Meanwhile, according to a Reuters report, a recent confidential UN report says that Iran has continued its development of ballistic missiles. Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Sunday that Western expectations that Iran would stop its missile program are “stupid and idiotic.” U.S. Foreign Policy Saudi Arabia-Gulf. U.S. secretary of defense Chuck Hagel met with defense ministers of the GCC in Jeddah on Wednesday to discuss P5+1 nuclear negotiations with Iran. Hagel called on the GCC to demonstrate unity, saying that “cooperation among friends is vital to their survival.” Hagel’s meeting coincides with the beginning of the fourth round of nuclear negotiations in Vienna. Meanwhile, King Abdullah announced a reshuffle of the top Saudi defense positions shortly after Hagel spoke. Deputy Defense Minister Prince Salman bin Sultan bin Abdul Aziz, who reportedly had a good relationship with Hagel, was removed and replaced by Prince Khaled bin Bandar bin Abdul Aziz, the governor of Riyadh. Israel. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel wrapped up his four day Middle East visit today in Jerusalem, where he met with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Following their meeting,  Hagel told a joint press conference, “I want to assure you of the United States’ commitment to ensuring Iran does not get a nuclear weapon — and that America will do what we must to live up to that commitment.” Netanyahu, in turn, warned that, “Iran is trying to pull the wool over the eyes of the international community.” Israel-Palestine. Secretary of State John Kerry met separately with Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli chief negotiator Tzipi Livni, this week in London in his first meetings with the negotiators since the breakdown of talks last month. According to State Department spokesperson Jen Psaki, Kerry told both Abbas and Livni that the “door remains open to peace.” Libya. Pentagon spokesperson Colonel Steve Warren said on Wednesday that nearly two hundred Marines backed with six aircraft have been temporarily moved to Sicily from Spain amidst concern over growing unrest in Libya. Warren said that the deployment follows a State Department request and is “unquestionably” focused on embassy protection. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Israel-Palestine. Violent protests erupted today in the West Bank following the funeral of two Palestinian youths who were killed yesterday in clashes with Israeli security forces during demonstrations for Nakba Day. A senior Palestinian source told an Israeli newspaper that Palestinian Authority officials are considering halting security cooperation with Israel in response. Meanwhile, Israeli construction and housing minister Uri Ariel told a Tel Aviv radio station today that he thinks the number of Jewish settlers in the West Bank could grow by 50 percent by 2019. Turkey. Mass burials were held again today as more bodies were recovered from the coal mine in Soma, while protests broke out across the country against work conditions and the prime minister’s perceived indifference. Greeted by cries of “murderer” in Soma on Wednesday, Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan allegedly punched a protestor while one of his aides kicked another protestor held down by police, an act photographed and published in Turkish newspapers yesterday. The explosion at the mine on Tuesday has resulted in the deaths of at least 284 miners confirmed so far. Egypt. The trial of three Al Jazeera journalists in Cairo was adjourned yesterday until May 22. Before adjourning, the court was told by the defendants’ lawyers that they had been asked to pay $170,000 by the prosecution in order to view five CDs that allegedly prove the journalists guilt. The three journalists have been jailed since December 29 on charges of fomenting unrest. Meanwhile, former military chief Abdel Fattah el-Sisi called on President Barack Obama to support Egypt’s fight against terrorism on Wednesday in his first international media interview. Pointing to growing unrest in Libya and the Egyptian military’s operations against militants in the Sinai, el-Sisi declared that, “The West has to pay attention to what’s going on in the world - the map of extremism and its expansion. This map will reach you inevitably.” Saudi Arabia-Iran. Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal told reporters on Tuesday that Saudi Arabia is willing to host Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif anytime he “sees fit.” Al-Faisal stressed that the kingdom hopes Iran can help to make the region “as safe as possible.” Iranian deputy foreign minister Hossein Amir Abdullahian responded on Wednesday, noting that while an official invitation has yet to be extended, a meeting is expected. Kuwait. According to the Kuwaiti state news agency KUNA, Justice and Islamic Affairs Minister Nayef al-Ajmi resigned on Monday after accusations that he promoted terrorism in Syria. In March, U.S. Treasury undersecretary David Cohen said that Ajmi “has a history of promoting jihad” and pointed out that al-Nusra Front in Syria features him on their fundraising posters. Lebanon. Trade and Economy Minister Alain Hakim said yesterday a ministerial committee for Syrian refugees agreed this week that Lebanon will set a limit on the number of Syrian refugees in the country and will establish official refugee camps. There are currently over one thousand informal settlements and over a million Syrian refugees scattered across Lebanon. Palestine. Gaza-based Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh announced last night that Hamas had agreed to all the details of security reintegration with Fatah, thereby removing a key obstacle in political reconciliation plan. Haniyeh noted that Hamas would not give up the “weapons of resistance” nor “forsake resistance.” Officials from Hamas and Fatah met in Gaza on Wednesday and reportedly agreed to form a fifteen-member interim government.
    Blog Post by Robert Danin May 16, 2014 Middle East Matters
  • Middle East and North Africa
    Blaming Israel Again
    Today’s New York Times carries a useful guide to President Obama’s understanding of his own failures in the "Middle East Peace Process." He blames the Palestinians a tiny bit, the Israelis a great deal, and himself not at all. Here are the key paragraphs: Publicly, Mr. Obama has said that both sides bear responsibility for the latest collapse. But the president believes that more than any other factor, Israel’s drumbeat of settlement announcements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem poisoned the atmosphere and doomed any chance of a breakthrough with the Palestinians. “At every juncture, there was a settlement announcement,” said the [senior administration] official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. “It was the thing that kept throwing a wrench in the gears.” There are a number of comments worth making about these remarks. First, note that the term "settlement" is used for construction in Jerusalem, Israel’s capital. Second, note that there is no reference to the 10-month settlement freeze Israel undertook in November 2009. For that decision Netanyahu paid a domestic political price but got nothing in return from the Palestinians--who did not come to the table until the tenth month, when they knew the freeze was ending--or from President Obama, who apparently has forgotten the whole thing. Third, note that the reference is to a "drumbeat of settlement announcements" rather than actual construction. That’s because there is no big increase in settlement activity--in new construction or in confiscation of land for settlements. Government officials at various levels of responsibility in the municipal and national governments can and do make announcements, sometimes for political reasons. A careful analysis would show that the administration’s accusation of vast increases in construction activity is wrong, but it seems there has been no such analysis done. Instead, the President and Martin Indyk make vague references to "rampant" activity and "large scale" land confiscation, offering no evidence for their charges. Surely they are sophisticated enough to know that such announcements are political acts, often meant to embarrass Netanyahu and often misleading as to whether additional, new construction is coming. And if they are sophisticated enough to know this, then their continuing insistence that Israel is to blame for the breakdown in talks is simply misleading and unfair. Because they know that according to the numbers there is no explosion of settlement activity; they know that when Israel did undertake a construction freeze, it did not bring the Palestinians to the table; they know that such a freeze has never been a precondition for talks before the Obama administration tried to make it so. One thing missing in every account of the administration’s reaction to the breakdown of the talks, and it is introspection. Never do we read of any serious internal effort to assess what the President, or Kerry, or Indyk, may have gotten wrong. It seems easier to blame Israel and "settlement announcements."
    Blog Post by Elliott Abrams May 16, 2014 Pressure Points
  • Middle East and North Africa
    Amb. Indyk’s Speech
    Last week Martin Indyk, former ambassador to Israel and now the top negotiator and adviser to Secretary of State Kerry in the Israeli-Palestinian talks, spoke to the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. His remarks can be found here. In my view, his account leaned heavily and unfairly toward blaming Israel and Prime Minister Netanyahu for the collapse of talks. Absent entirely was any consideration of the unfortunate American role --- mishandling these negotiations for five years now. Indyk continued the near obsession of the administration with the issue of construction in settlements, and he provided some numbers that seem to me to misstate quite strikingly the facts on the ground. My own view of Amb. Indyk’s speech was published at the web site of The Weekly Standard, and can be found here.
    Blog Post by Elliott Abrams May 12, 2014 Pressure Points
  • Israel
    The Pitfalls of Israeli-Palestinian Peace Talks
    Mistrust, complex domestic politics, and a lack of urgency by Israeli and Palestinian leaders continue to bedevil peace talks brokered by the Obama administration, says former U.S. negotiator Aaron David Miller.
    Interview with Aaron David Miller and Bernard Gwertzman May 12, 2014
  • United States
    This Week: Syria’s Latest Agreement and a New U.S. Ambassador for Egypt
    Significant Developments Syria. Regime forces took complete control of Homs today as part of a deal struck with armed rebels allowing for nearly 1,700 opposition fighters to evacuate the city with light weapons. Hundreds of Homs residents began to filter back into the battered city this morning to discover what remained of their homes. The regime-rebel pact, brokered by the Iranian and Russian ambassadors to Syria, exchanged safe passage for the release of forty Alawite women and children, an Iranian woman, and thirty-one Syrian soldiers, as well as the distribution of aid to two pro-regime villages in Aleppo province. Egypt. President Barack Obama announced that is nominating Robert Stephen Beecroft, currently the top U.S. ambassador in Baghdad, to serve as the next ambassador to Egypt. Beecroft is to fill the position that has been vacant since Anne Patterson left Cairo in August to head the State Department’s Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs. The president also reportedly plans to send Ambassador Stu Jones, currently heading the U.S. embassy in Amman, to Baghdad. Meanwhile, in the first television interview of former military chief Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s presidential campaign, the former general  said that he had turned down a request last July from Patterson to wait a day or two before overthrowing former President Mohamed Morsi last July. When asked in the interview if the Muslim Brotherhood would cease to exist if he is elected, Sisi responded with, “Yes. That’s right.” U.S. Foreign Policy Israel. U.S. national security adviser Susan Rice today reaffirmed the Obama administration’s commitment to Israel saying that, “Every American dollar spent on Israel’s security is an investment in protecting the many interests that our nations share.” She arrived in Israel on Wednesday for talks primarily with Israeli officials on strategic matters. U.S. secretary of defense Chuck Hagel is scheduled to visit Israel next week to discuss Israel’s rocket and missile defenses. Meanwhile, U.S. peace envoy Martin Indyk provided a frank assessment of the suspended Israeli-Palestinian negotiations to the Washington Institute for Near East Policy last night. Indyk, deploring the lack of urgency on both sides, said that, “It is safe to say that if we, the U.S., are the only party that has a sense of urgency, these negotiations will not succeed.” Libya. Speaker of the House John Boehner appointed seven Republicans today to the new House select committee to examine the attack on Benghazi on September 11, 2012. The Democratic leadership has not yet decided whether to participate in the committee that was created in a vote yesterday that fell mostly along party lines. Democrats were given five seats on the committee. Syria. Secretary of State John Kerry met with Syrian Opposition Coalition president Ahmad Jarba yesterday in Washington. Jarba reportedly requested anti-tank weapons, but State Department spokesperson Jen Psaki would only say, “I have nothing to announce in terms of any change in our position.” The United States did announce some new measures to support the Syrian opposition coalition this week, included designating its offices in Washington and New York as “foreign missions” in a symbolic diplomatic upgrade. The Administration also announced its intention to work with Congress to provide an additional $27 million in non-lethal aid to Syrian rebels. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Palestine. Hamas announced on Wednesday that it is allowing Al Quds, the best-selling West Bank newspaper, to be distributed in Gaza for the first time after a six year ban. The step came two days after Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas and Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal met in Doha to discuss implementation of the deal. It was the first face-to-face meeting of the two Palestinian leaders since their January 2013 Cairo meeting. Libya. Libya’s General National Congress elected Ahmed Maetig, a businessman from Misrata, as the country’s new prime minister on Sunday after three contentious rounds of voting. Maetig was immediately sworn in and given two weeks to form a government; however he faces challenges from some members of the parliament who claim that his appointment was “invalid.” If Maetig successfully forms a government, he will become Libya’s fifth prime minister since the Muammar Qaddafi was overthrown in 2011. Saudi Arabia. Interior Ministry spokesperson Major General Mansour al-Turki said on Tuesday that Saudi security forces had dismantled a terrorist organization and arrested sixty-two suspected members of the group. Al-Turki said that the militants arrested had links with al-Qaeda in Syria and Yemen and were planning attacks in Saudi Arabia. Lebanon. Maronite patriarch Beshara Rai is reportedly trying to bring together the four main Maronite leaders to agree on one presidential candidate. Lebanese Forces leader Samir Gagea offered to withdraw from Lebanon’s presidential race yesterday, after the Lebanese parliament failed on Wednesday to elect a president for the third time. Fifty-two lawmakers affiliated with the Hezbollah-led March 8 alliance boycotted the vote, preventing the two-thirds quorum from gathering. The Lebanese constitution mandates that a new president must be in place before current president Michel Sleiman’s term ends on May 25. Yemen. Defense Minister Muhammad Nasir Ahmad escaped an assassination attempt today when his convoy was attacked by alleged al-Qaeda militants. Hours later a bomb wounded eleven Yemeni security officials in Sana’a. The attacks come in the midst of a military crack-down on al-Qaeda. On Tuesday, the defense ministry announced that it had seized two al-Qaeda strongholds in the south.
    Blog Post by Robert Danin May 9, 2014 Middle East Matters
  • Middle East and North Africa
    Still the Palestinian Authority Glorifies Terror
    It is Israel’s Memorial Day today, a good context in which to note that still now--in 2014, and after months of negotiations led by Secretary of State John Kerry--the Palestinian Authority refuses to stop glorifying terror. Palestine Media Watch reports on the latest of the endless series of PA actions that do this. On August 9, 2001, at about 2 pm, a suicide bomber named Izz Al-Din Al-Masri blew himself up in the Sbarro pizzeria in Jerusalem, killing 15 people--7 of them children, as might have been predicted in a pizza parlor--and wounding 130. It’s hard to think of a better definition of a merciless terror attack than this. Al-Masri’s remains were transferred from Israel to the PA last week, so what did the PA do?  Honor him as a fallen hero. He received an official military funeral, and official government TV called him a "shahid,"  meaning martyr. This is the kind of abuse covered by the pallid term "incitement." While it continues as official PA policy, while Palestinian society is taught that blowing up a restaurant filled with parents and children is an act worth celebrating, it must seem to Israelis that peace is far away.  
    Blog Post by Elliott Abrams May 5, 2014 Pressure Points
  • Iran
    Chlorine, Nukes, and American Credibility
    One of the greatest Israeli concerns about a possible nuclear deal with Iran goes beyond the terms of any deal itself to the issue of enforcement.  The issue is summed up in a Laura Rozen piece: The Israelis are also deeply concerned, the former US diplomat said, that if there is a violation by Iran of a final nuclear accord, that the violation will be seen by Washington as too ambiguous or incremental, that there “is no smoking gun.” The Israelis are “nervous that the U.S. will continuously say, ‘we are checking into it, we need more proof,’” the former diplomat described. “At what point does the cumulative effect of the small things add up to a violation?” She describes the American as "a senior former US diplomat involved in the April consultations in Israel." The Israeli concern is serious, because the pattern they fear is familiar. Officials who have gone out on a limb to negotiate a deal despite criticism of it, rejected the criticism, defended the deal, and indeed celebrated the deal as a great diplomatic achievement, do NOT wish to find that it has been violated and that their achievement is in tatters. This was a key problem in our strategic arms limitations negotiations with the USSR. In the early 1980s, Congress passed legislation requiring the administration to report to it on any Soviet treaty violations precisely because it understood and feared the temptation to avoid finding violations or doing anything about them. (See, for example, the McClure-Symms-Helms amendment to the State Department authorization bill in 1983.) Fast Forward to today, when it’s clear that the Assad regime is using chlorine gas in bomb attacks. This week the Daily Telegraph in London reported as follows: President Bashar al-Assad is still using chemical weapons against civilians, a scientific analysis of samples from multiple gas attacks has shown. In the first independent testing of its kind, conducted exclusively for The Telegraph, soil samples from the scene of three recent attacks in the country were collected by trained individuals known to this news organisation and analysed by a chemical warfare expert. Our results show sizeable and unambiguous traces of chlorine and ammonia present at the site of all three attacks. The use in war of “asphyxiating, poisonous or other gases” - both of which can be produced by chlorine and ammonia - is banned by the Geneva Protocol, of which Syria is a signatory. The facts are reasonably clear. The use of chlorine may not be covered by the agreement reached between the United States and Russia for the removal of Syria’s more potent chemical weapons, but it does violate international law. So, now what?  Here’s the CNN account: The latest revelation poses a new dilemma for the administration on Syria, where civil war continues to rage. While chlorine is not as poisonous as chemicals like mustard gas or sarin, it would violate of Syria’s international obligations. While some of the administration feel a strong response is needed, officials said others are concerned a robust response would complicate ongoing cooperation with Syria on its more dangerous stockpiles. "There is not a consensus," another U.S. official said. "Some would like to be stronger and some are more cautious. It can’t go unanswered but if we equate it to a chemical attack then the question becomes what are we going to do about it? And I don’t think we have figured that out yet." The chlorine gas incident in question occurred on April 11, three weeks ago today. What will the U.S. response be? "I don’t think we have figured that out yet." This is precisely what concerns the Israelis. Syria is a weak country, yet the United States has acted as if it were strong--excusing the failure to enforce the "red line" against use of chemicals by fanciful accounts of the military force that would be needed to punish the regime. As I noted in this blog last June, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Dempsey, fought off action this way: "Dempsey informed Kerry that the Air Force could not simply drop a few bombs, or fire a few missiles, at targets inside Syria: To be safe, the U.S. would have to neutralize Syria’s integrated air-defense system, an operation that would require 700 or more sorties." This absurd argument apparently carried the day--while Israel was repeatedly attacking Syria from the air and never losing a plane. Iran is larger and stronger than Syria, and the achievement of a nuclear deal will be touted by the administration as a far greater achievement than Kerry’s deal on Syria with Sergei Lavrov. Will the administration admit violations when they arise, or look the other way and try not to hear the bad news? If the bad news is clear, will we find that "There is not a consensus. Some would like to be stronger and some are more cautious....the question becomes what are we going to do about it? And I don’t think we have figured that out yet." Agreements are not self-enforcing; enforcement depends on the will-power and determination of the parties, and in this case of the United States. Our response to the Syrian gas attacks is teaching Syria, and Iran, and Israel, that the necessary determination is lacking. No wonder the Israelis worry.
    Blog Post by Elliott Abrams May 2, 2014 Pressure Points
  • Defense and Security
    You Might Have Missed: Terrorism, Women in Nonprofits, and China
    Ehud Yaari and Michael Morell, “Israel vs. al-Qaeda: Emerging Challenges on Two Fronts,” The Washington Institute, April 29, 2014. Michael Morell: For everyone 100 hours I spent in the Sit Room talking about how to deal with terrorists that already exist, maybe we spent 10 minutes talking about winning hearts and minds and deradicalization, etc… “Country Reports on Terrorism 2013,” U.S. Department of State, April 30, 2014. In 2013, a total of 9,707 terrorist attacks occurred worldwide, resulting in more than 17,800 deaths and more than 32,500 injuries (National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism: Annex of Statistical Information)… U.S. citizens worldwide killed as a result of incidents of terrorism: 16. (Annex: Terrorism Deaths, Injuries and Kidnappings of Private U.S. Citizens) Remarks by President Barack Obama and President Benigno Aquino III of the Philippines in a Joint Press Conference, White House, April 28, 2014. President Obama: Typically, criticism of our foreign policy has been directed at the failure to use military force. And the question I think I would have is, why is it that everybody is so eager to use military force after we’ve just gone through a decade of war at enormous costs to our troops and to our budget? And what is it exactly that these critics think would have been accomplished?... President Obama: We’ve been able to mobilize the international community to not only put diplomatic pressure on Russia, but also we’ve been able to organize European countries who many were skeptical would do anything to work with us in applying sanctions to Russia.  Well, what else should we be doing?  Well, we shouldn’t be putting troops in, the critics will say.  That’s not what we mean.  Well, okay, what are you saying?  Well, we should be arming the Ukrainians more.  Do people actually think that somehow us sending some additional arms into Ukraine could potentially deter the Russian army?  Or are we more likely to deter them by applying the sort of international pressure, diplomatic pressure and economic pressure that we’re applying? Maria Di Mento, “Lack of Women in Top Roles Hinders Nonprofits, Female Nonprofit Workers Say,” Chronicle of Philanthropy, April 28, 2014. Nonprofits, especially the largest ones, are missing out on donations from women and hurting their missions by not putting more females in board and leadership jobs, according to a new poll of nearly 650 women who work at nonprofits… Forty-four percent of female nonprofit workers think their organization favors men over equally qualified women for chief leadership positions. Forty percent of women at large nonprofits, groups with $25-million or more in assets, said their organization did not put as much effort into identifying and soliciting affluent women as it does men and as a result their organizations were losing money that could have been donated to their causes. Thirty-six percent said wealthy female donors were given the same respect as well-to-do men… While women may face discrimination from employers, they are not lacking in confidence about their ability to hold the top job. Only 7 percent of those polled said they didn’t think they could do the job. Younger women were the most ambitious of those in the survey. Seventy-two percent of all the women under 34 said they wanted to be a leader, while only 30 percent of those 55 or older said the same. Adam Entous and Julian E. Barnes, “U.S. Beefs Up Military Options for China as Obama Reassures Allies in Asia,” Wall Street Journal, April 27, 2014. The U.S. military has prepared options for a muscular response to any future Chinese provocations in the South and East China seas, ranging from displays of B-2 bomber flights near China to aircraft-carrier exercises near its coastal waters, officials said… The new U.S. options were developed by the Hawaii-based U.S. Pacific Command in recent months, and come after the international crisis last year in which China unilaterally declared an air-defense zone around islands that are the subject of a territorial dispute with Japan… In addition to bomber flights and aircraft carrier maneuvers, the options include demonstrations of U.S. power such as increasing surveillance operations near China, and stepping up U.S. naval port visits to allies. A senior Obama administration official declined to comment on details of any military options, but said unilateral moves by Beijing—such as the declaration of another air-defense zone in the region—" could result in changes in our military posture and presence" in the region. The military options don’t specify particular responses to individual actions. Rather, officials briefed on the options said, the actions would need to be tailored to the specific incident, such as maritime confrontation. Andrew Higgins and C. J. Chivers, “Defying Moscow, Ukraine Threatens to Blockade Pro-Russian Militants,” New York Times, April 25, 2014. On Friday, Mr. Kerry’s Russian counterpart, Sergey V. Lavrov, hit back, accusing Washington of seeking only to further its interests in Ukraine. “The West wants to take control of Ukraine while exclusively putting its geopolitical interests, not the interests of the Ukrainian people, at the forefront,” he said at a conference of diplomats from former Soviet republics. “This is not our method. We will not blackmail, we will not threaten, we are all polite people.” “Real Personal Income for States and Metropolitan Areas, 2008-2012,” U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, April 24, 2014. Regional Price Parities (RPPs) measure the differences in the price levels of goods and services across states and metropolitan areas for a given year. RPPs are expressed as a percentage of the overall national price level for each year, which is equal to 100.0. In 2012, the District of Columbia’s RPP (118.2) was higher than that of any state. The states with the highest RPPs were Hawaii (117.2), New York (115.4), New Jersey (114.1), and California (112.9). Mississippi (86.4), Arkansas (87.6), Alabama (88.1), Missouri (88.1), and South Dakota (88.2) had the lowest RPPs among the States. States with high (low) RPPs typically have relatively high (low) price levels for rents. States with RPPs closest to the national average price level were Florida (98.8), Oregon (98.8), Illinois (100.6), and Vermont (100.9)…
    Blog Post by Micah Zenko May 2, 2014 Politics, Power, and Preventive Action
  • Middle East and North Africa
    Aid to the Palestinians: Why Rand Paul is Wrong
    Senator Rand Paul has tried to attain some pro-Israel credentials by introducing S. 2265, the “Stand With Israel Act of 2014.” The bill would cut off every cent of aid to the Palestinian Authority unless various conditions were met. As Paul put it, "Today, I introduced legislation to make all future aid to the Palestinian government conditional upon the new unity government putting itself on the record recognizing the right of Israel to exist as a Jewish state and agreeing to a lasting peace." The bill covers “the Palestinian Authority, or any affiliated governing entity or leadership organization.” Why is this not smart legislation? Among other things, it is not smart because it would force a cut-off of any U.S. assistance to the Palestinian security forces. Under Yasser Arafat, those forces, at that time thirteen in all, were disorganized, totally corrupt, and wholly politicized; the late Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon used to call them “terror-security forces.” But since Arafat’s death in 2004 the United States has made a major effort to professionalize those forces. American generals have led efforts to train them, at bases in Jordan, and they have worked with American security and intelligence officials. Perhaps more significantly, this effort has paid dividends in valuable cooperation against terror between Israeli and Palestinian forces. Consider this 2010 assessment from the International Crisis Group: With certain exceptions outlined above, the General Intelligence Service (Shin Bet) provides its Palestinian counterparts with lists of wanted militants, whom Palestinians subsequently arrest. IDF and Israeli intelligence officials take the view that, in this regard, “coordination has never been as extensive”, with “coordination better in all respects”. Moreover, in past years Palestinian security forces were divided and internally ill-coordinated, leading Israel to work with only some of them; today, given a more centralized Palestinianian apparatus, Israeli coordinates across the entire PA spectrum. A senior IDF official went so far as to describe the joint work as “beyond our expectations.” [footnotes omitted] In 2011, al-Jazeera revealed documents showing extensive Israeli-Palestinian security cooperation—whose extent indeed was revealed in an effort to embarrass Palestinian officials. A 2011 report by the coordinating body for aid donors to the Palestinian Authority noted that that year, “despite the stymied political process and the tense relationship between the government and the Palestinian Authority, in 2011 some 764 joint security meetings were held, a 5% increase over the year before.” In 2013, retired Gen. Shlomo Brom of the Institute for National Security Studies said “This is the best security cooperation we’ve had in years.” There is reason to fear that since the departure of Prime Minister Fayyad in 2013, the Palestinian security forces are declining in competence and are being politicized; moreover, there is reason to fear that if there is a unity government of any sort the security forces in the West Bank will refrain from arresting Hamas-affiliated personnel. But Paul’s legislation would kill a successful project to which the United States has dedicated years of work and substantial funds, and would undermine Israeli-Palestinian security cooperation. If the Palestinian forces that we have trained stop cooperating with Israel, or start winking at Hamas terrorism, we should cut them off. Until that happens, a cut-off is foolish and possibly dangerous. Whatever the intent of Sen. Paul’s legislation, it is certainly no help to Israel.
    Blog Post by Elliott Abrams May 1, 2014 Pressure Points