Israel

Significant Developments. Israel-Gaza. Late on Thursday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered IDF troops to begin ground operations in Gaza. Israel and Hamas had intensified both their fighting and indirect negotiations earlier in the day following a temporary five-hour humanitarian cease-fire requested by the United Nations. Israeli officials, Hamas representatives, and PLO chairman Mahmoud Abbas were all in Cairo for meetings with Egyptian mediators. Israeli and Palestinian officials called talk of a new impending cease-fire agreement premature as the Israeli cabinet prepared to meet on Friday to discuss expanding its military operations in Gaza. Since the end of the cease-fire, over one hundred rockets and mortar shells have been fired at Israel; Israeli airstrikes killed four Palestinian children, three in Zeitoun and one in Khan Yunis. Last night, Israel foiled an infiltration attempt, killing eight Hamas militants who had entered Israel through a tunnel. Iraq. The Iraqi parliament elected Sunni lawmaker Salim al-Juburi to be speaker on Tuesday in the first step towards forming a new government. The parliament has thirty days from speaker’s election to pick a new president, and an additional fifteen days to elect a prime minister. An informal agreement, in place since 2003, dictates that the speaker be a Sunni, the president a Kurd, and the prime minister a Shiite. Meanwhile, ISIS attacks continued this week with two suicide bombings, one inside Baghdad and one on the outskirts, killing nine people today. ISIS forces also resisted the Iraqi army’s offensive to retake Tikrit on Tuesday. The New York Times reported this week that a classified military assessment of Iraq’s security forces indicates that many units are so deeply infiltrated by Sunni extremist informants or Shia personnel backed by Iran that any Americans assigned to advise them could be at risk. To the south, Saudi Arabia continued to bolster security along its border with Iraq this week, sending an additional 2,000 troops as the threat of a spillover from the ISIS insurgency mounts. U.S. Foreign Policy Iran. President Barack Obama suggested yesterday that negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program are likely to be extended beyond their July 20 deadline. Obama said that while “real progress” has been made, there are “significant gaps” and “we have more work to do.” Secretary of State John Kerry spent three days in intensive talks with Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in Vienna earlier this week. Zarif said in an interview on Monday that his country had presented a proposal that would accept freezing its capacity to produce nuclear fuel for several years in exchange for relief from sanctions. Qatar. U.S. secretary of defense Chuck Hagel signed an arms deal on Monday with Qatari defense minister Hamad bin Ali al-Attiyah valued at $11 billion. The agreement, which is reportedly the largest U.S. arms sale so far this year, includes Patriot missile batteries and Apache attack helicopters to strengthen Qatar’s missile defense systems. While We Were Looking Elsewhere. Libya. Tripoli’s international airport remained under attack today following days of shelling by militias hoping to unseat the Zintan militia which has controlled the airport since the fall of Tripoli in 2011. Government spokesman Ahmed Lamine said on Tuesday that the attacks, which began on Sunday, destroyed ninety percent of the planes parked at the airport. The UN evacuated its remaining staff from Libya on Monday after the attacks shut down the airport and sealed off the capital. At least fifteen people have been killed in Tripoli and Benghazi since Sunday. Meanwhile, Fareha al-Barqawi, a member of Libya’s liberal-leaning bloc in parliament, was shot dead in the city of Darna today. Syria. Bashar al-Assad was sworn in yesterday for his third seven-year term as Syria’s president. He dismissed all criticisms of the June 3 election in which he received 88.7 percent of the vote and said his government would continue fighting “terrorists.” Meanwhile, in a unanimous vote on Monday, the UN Security Council passed a resolution authorizing the deployment of emergency aid convoys across the Turkish, Jordanian, and Iraqi borders into Syria without waiting for prior approval from Syrian authorities. The Assad administration had previously insisted that all aid be channeled through Damascus. Egypt. Consistent with President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s promise to crack down on perpetrators of sexual assault, a court sentenced seven men to life in prison and two men to twenty years yesterday. Meanwhile, earlier this week, a court lifted the ban that had prevented leading members of former President Hosni Mubarak’s party, the National Democratic Party (NDP), to run for office in local and parliamentary elections. The NDP was dissolved in 2011. Yemen. Houthi rebels and army troops fought in two major clashes this week. In the northern province of Al-Jawf, thirty-four people were killed on Tuesday after fighting after Houthi rebels tried to regain control of a military site the army had captured days earlier. On the same day, Houthi fighters attacked a military base in Sanaa, killing two soldiers. The attacks follow the Houthi takeover of the city of Amran last week. The UN Security Council called upon the rebels to leave Amran last Friday, threatening to impose sanctions on those who impeded Yemen’s political transition. Tunisia. At least fourteen Tunisian soldiers were killed and twenty wounded in two attacks by gunmen on military checkpoints near the Algerian border yesterday. Since April, thousands of troops have been deployed to the area to combat al-Qaeda—affiliated fighters who fled there after the French intervention in Mali last year.

On the Death of a Friend in Israel My friend Elhanan Harlev died on July 1st after a long illness. We had an odd friendship. He was an Israeli by way of Germany and Argentina. I am a kid from Long Island. Elhanan was more than three decades older than me. We did not share a common language. Against those odds we somehow managed to communicate. Often times it was through an able interpreter like his wife, my cousin Carol, or one of her sons from her first marriage—most often Ari, who has popped up on this blog from time to time. At other times, Elhanan and I just found a way to understand each other. Never has a name, Elhanan means “God is Merciful,” been so apt for the soft-spoken, gentle, and wise soul that he was (and remains). His was an extraordinary life because it was so normal. And in that normalcy, he taught me more about Israel than much of what I have read. I first met Elhanan in August 1992 after I stepped off a 10-hour flight from New York on my first visit to Israel. Bleary-eyed and a bit nervous (despite my 24-year-old cockiness)—I was on my way to study Hebrew and Arabic in Jerusalem in what was to be my first experience living abroad. I knew who he was immediately because my dad had told me as my parents bid me farewell, “Look for the guy with the Ben Gurion-esque shock of white hair. That’s Elhanan.” He was the friendly face in the overwhelming crowd. He took my bags and literally offered me a Coke and a smile. Over the course of the next twelve months, I became a fixture in Elhanan’s home on random weekends. When I was not mesmerized by the Mishpuchah channel, which ran mindless American television programs like “Beverly Hills 90210”, or gallivanting around greater Tel Aviv with a girlfriend, Elhanan and I talked politics and history. Elhanan’s personal story comes straight out of Zionist lore—he became involved in a leftie Zionist youth movement that led to aliyah; he was a founder of Kibbutz Bachan, and served in the Nahal Brigade in the early fifties and during the June 1967 War, helping to drive the Jordanians from the northern West Bank. In between, he married, had children, divorced, built a business, remarried, and became a proud grandfather. That sounds like a lot of other people in this world, but Elhanan was also Israeli, which carries a certain imposed special burden—“the conflict” and the subsequent judgment of the world. Elhanan took it all in stride. There was no chip on his shoulder; he knew where he belonged and he understood what Israelis had built over his lifetime. He could even get a little bit misty eyed. One night in the summer of 1997—when I was back in Israel doing research in Arab towns and villages and living in his TV room—Elhanan was engrossed in the movie adaptation of Exodus, starring Paul Newman. Ari and I gave him a hard time because everyone knows that Leon Uris’ novel was little more than crude propaganda. He knew all this, of course, but he was having none of our snark. It reminded him, according to Ari, “of the good old days that never were.” Whatever the complexities and realities of Israel’s founding mythology, I never got the sense that Elhanan felt the need to reaffirm the legitimacy of the Israeli cause in the eyes of anyone. He had been sick for quite some time so I don’t know for sure, but I am fairly confident that he had a jaundiced view of the demand that the Palestinians recognize Israel as a Jewish state. This demand—which has become something of a fetish in certain circles—is either a ploy to ensure that peace negotiations fail or a sign that those making the demand recognize that their claim remains open to political challenge. Elhanan did not think this way. He did not need an official pronouncement from the Palestinians to legitimize his existence. For all of Elhanan’s unapologetic Zionism, however, he was far from a maximalist. He did not like the settlers and their enablers both in Israel and the United States. I remember hanging out one evening chatting politics when we got on the issue of Jerusalem. This was some years before the Israeli effort to alter the demographics of the city kicked into high gear. We discussed the challenges and complexities of the city, but Elhanan finished the conversation with a wry smile and said, “Isn’t it obvious that parts of the city are theirs [the Palestinians] and parts of it are ours? Shouldn’t that be the basis of an agreement?” Someone might say that Elhanan was naïve, but pragmatic is more like it. To Elhanan’s thinking, Israel was a successful society and the surest way to its ruin was to continue to be wrapped up in conflict with the Palestinians that would grow only more complex and corrosive over time. This is the context that in the emotion of the current moment of a stomach-churning war of the cities seems to be lost on almost everyone. Israelis and Palestinians seem surprised at each other’s rage and wrath, but they should not be. Hasn’t this hit-and-run violence been going on for the better part of a century? And for their partisans abroad, it seems easier for people to hold on to absolutes, which makes it easier to cheer as rockets rain indiscriminately down on civilians for the sole purpose of killing civilians or to advocate for the collective punishment of an entire population. I digress. My perspective on Elhanan may be warped by the passage of time—I got to know him in the 1990s—and grief. He died at a moment of crisis and perhaps in my own revulsion at the violence and ugly commentary around it, his words have taken on meaning to me that he never intended. Still, I know that in his extraordinarily normal way, Elhanan believed that Israel, as a strong and vibrant society, could withstand peace.  

Sarah Carr, writing for Mada Masr, offers an in-depth and graphic look at sexual assault and the Egyptian state. J.J. Goldberg explores the triggers to an "unintended" war in Gaza. In an interview to Al-Monitor, Kurdistan Regional Government President Massoud Barzani talks about the crisis in Iraq.

Significant Developments Israel-Palestine. Israel entered its third day of Operation Protective Edge today as rockets rained down on many parts of Israel. More than fifteen rockets were fired into Tel Aviv today in what is believed to be the largest bombardment there since the 1948 Israeli war of independence. However, the Iron Dome system has successfully intercepted most rockets fired at population centers to date. Meanwhile, Israel has launched its most aggressive air campaign into Gaza since the last round of Israel-Hamas fighting ended in a U.S. brokered—cease-fire in November 2012. So far, Israel has attacked over five hundred targets in Gaza, with at least eighty Palestinians killed. Israelis and Palestinians are bracing for widespread demonstrations across Israel and in the occupied territories on Friday. Speaking before an emergency meeting at the United Nation Security Council this afternoon, Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon appealed for an immediate cease-fire, saying “Gaza, and the region as a whole, cannot afford another full-blown war." Iraq. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki accused the country’s Kurdish population of exploiting the country’s current crisis to push for statehood and for allowing Kurdish-controlled Irbil to become an operations base for ISIS militants. The Kurdish regional government responded today, calling on Maliki to apologize to the Iraqi people and to step down and announcing that its ministers would boycott future cabinet meetings. Kurdish president Masoud Barzani issued a statement in which he said that Maliki “has become hysterical and has lost his balance.” On Tuesday, the Iraqi parliament reversed its earlier decision to adjourn until August following last week’s failed first meeting. Parliament is now scheduled to meet Sunday to form a new government. Meanwhile, Gill Tudor, spokesperson for the International Atomic Energy Agency, announced in a statement today that nuclear material seized by ISIS militants last month is likely low-grade uranium that “would not present a significant safety, security, or nuclear proliferation risk.” Yesterday, Iraqi officials discovered fifty-three blindfolded and handcuffed corpses in a Shia village south of Baghdad. U.S. Foreign Policy Bahrain. Bahrain’s government ordered Tom Malinowski, U.S. assistant secretary of state for democracy, human rights and labor to leave the country on Monday after he met with officials from al-Wefaq, the country’s main Shiite opposition group. The following day, the interior ministry called the group’s secretary general, Sheikh Ali Salman, and his political assistant Khalil al-Marzooq, for interrogation. State department spokesperson Jen Psaki said in a press statement Monday that the United States is “deeply concerned” over the Bahraini government’s decision to declare Malinowski, the State Department’s top human rights official, persona non grata. Israel-Palestine.White House officials confirmed that its top Middle East official, Philip Gordon, met with Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas today and is also meeting with Israeli leaders. Earlier in the week, Gordon gave the keynote address at the Haaretz newspaper’s Israel Conference on Peace in which he urged Israel to “not take for granted the opportunity to negotiate” peace with Abbas. Secretary of State John Kerry told reporters today that both sides must de-escalate the conflict, while reiterating Israel’s right to self-defense. On Monday, President Barack Obama published an op-ed in Haaretz, reiterating strong U.S. support for Israel but noting the need for peace to bring stability and justice to the region. Jordan. King Abdullah II of Jordan visited Washington this week for meetings with U.S. officials. Abdullah met with Vice President Joe Biden during his visit. It was the first visit since ISIS militants captured northern Iraq. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Syria. The Syrian National Coalition—the main opposition group working in exile to oust President Bashar al-Assad—elected Hadi al-Bahra, its chief negotiator from the Geneva II conference, as its new president yesterday. Many hope Bahra will be able to unite the opposition, whose work has been impeded by disputes between its two main sponsors, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Meanwhile, diplomats announced yesterday that UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has selected Italian-Swedish diplomat Staffan de Mistura to replace Lakhdar Brahimi—who resigned in May—as the UN envoy to Syria. Meanwhile, U.S. container ship Cape Ray began destroying Syrian chemical weapons Monday. The UK announced yesterday that it would destroy 50 more tons of the material. Saudi Arabia. A spokesperson for Saudi Arabia’s interior ministry said that six Saudi men affiliated with al-Qaeda conducted an attack in Yemen on Friday, killing five soldiers as well as five of the militants. The sixth has been arrested. Meanwhile, a court sentenced prominent human rights lawyer Walid Abu al-Khair, founder of the Monitor of Human Rights in Saudi Arabia, to fifteen years in prison on Sunday on six charges including “publicly slandering the judiciary, distorting the kingdom’s reputation, making international organizations hostile to the kingdom, and issuing unverified statements that harm the kingdom’s reputation and incite against it and alienate it.” Egypt. Acknowledging the “negative consequences” that Egypt has faced following last month’s sentencing of three Al-Jazeera journalists, President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi said on Monday he would have preferred that the journalists have been deported rather than put on trial. Speculations have arisen as to whether Sisi will pardon them. Of the three,Baher Mohamed and Mohamed Fahmy are Egyptian citizens and live in Cairo, though Fahmy also has Canadian citizenship. Peter Greste is an Australian. Iran. Amid continuing P5+1 nuclear talks in Vienna, officials announced yesterday that foreign ministers from the six countries will join the talks later this week as little progress has been made in advance of the July 20 deadline. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in a statement published on his website Monday that Iran will continue to seek to increase its number of centrifuges, to 190,000. The P5+1 countries are calling for Tehran to accept a capacity of 10,000 centrifuges. Yemen. After weeks of protracted fighting, Houthi rebels took control of the northern city of Omran yesterday. According to Mutahhar Yahya Abu Sheeha, head of a government refugee agency, over 35,000 people have been displaced as a result of the violence that killed over two hundred people this week. According to Al-Jazeera, Mohammed Abdul-Salam, a spokesperson for the Houthis said the rebels were only fighting what he called an “extremist group” and did not intend to replace the government in the city.

Significant Developments Iraq. Saudi state news agency SPA announced today the deployment of 30,000 Saudi Arabian troops to the country’s border with Iraq. The move followed the reported removal of Iraqi troops from their shared border; officials in Baghdad denied their troops had withdrawn. On Sunday, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) announced the establishment of an Islamic caliphate in their newly conquered territory.  ISIS then changed its name to “The Islamic State” and proclaimed its leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, as caliph—the head of the new state. In a video posted online Tuesday, Baghdadi called upon Muslims worldwide to take up arms and join the caliphate. In Baghdad, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki announced in a television address that fighting the Iraq’s insurgency took precedence over reconciling differences amongst the country’s political factions. Parliament was adjourned Tuesday when Sunnis and Kurds did not return to the session after a recess, citing Shiite members’ failure to select a new prime minister. The Shiite bloc has not agreed to endorse Maliki for a third term or to nominate an alternative. Meanwhile, Masoud Barzani, president of Iraq’s Kurdish region, asked the region’s parliament to prepare for a referendum on Kurdish independence. Barzani did not offer a timetable for the proposed referendum. Israel-Palestine. Israeli forces conducted 15 air strikes on Gaza last night after Palestinian militants fired over 30 rockets into Israel over the past 24 hours. The Israeli army today initiated a limited deployment of troops to the border with Gaza. The latest escalation of violence follows the abduction and killing of a Palestinian teenager in East Jerusalem yesterday and the discovery on Monday of the bodies of the three kidnapped Israeli Yeshiva students missing since June 12. Israeli Authorities have yet to confirm the details behind the death of the Palestinian teenager, Muhammad Abu Khdeir, which is suspected of being a revenge killing. Residents of Khdeir’s Jerusalem neighborhood took to the streets following the discovery of his body, throwing stones and firebombs at police. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Netanyahu convened the Security Cabinet for a third evening yesterday, and urged police to “swiftly investigate who was behind the loathsome murder” of Khdeir while calling on citizens to refrain from taking the law “into their own hands.” Hamas’ leader Khaled Meshaal yesterday denied that his organization was responsible for the killing of the three Israeli youth and appealed to Turkey to intervene and deescalate the crisis with Israel. U.S. Foreign Policy Iran. In an op-ed article published in the Washington Post Monday, Secretary of State John Kerry warned that the July 20 deadline on P5+1 nuclear talks with Iran is fast approaching, and accused the Iranians of demonstrating no clear willingness to make concessions necessary to reach an agreement with the United States. Kerry said the choice rests with the Iranians, should they agree to the West’s demands, or “squander a historic opportunity” to end the tough sanctions that have inhibited the country’s economy for years. The final round in the months-long negotiations opened  yesterday in Vienna, where Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif met with Deputy Secretary of State William J. Burns and European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton. Talks are expected to continue non-stop for the next three weeks. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Turkey. Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced Tuesday his candidacy for the country’s presidential race next month. The vote, on August 10, will be Turkey’s first direct presidential election; previously, parliament chose the country’s leader. Erdogan, who has been prime minister since 2003, is running against Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu, former Secretary-General of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, and Selahattin Demirtas, co-chair of Turkey’s pro-Kurdish party, the People’s Democratic Party. If no candidate wins at least 50 percent of the vote, there will be a second round of elections on August 24. Lebanon. Parliament speaker Nabih Berri postponed presidential elections for the eighth time yesterday when parliament failed to reach a quorum for the vote. Both Berri and Prime Minister Tammam Salam were not in parliament at the time. The vote is now scheduled for July 23. Parliament member and presidential hopeful Michel Aoun told a news conference on Monday that the constitution should be amended to allow for a two-round popular presidential election. Aoun’s proposal reportedly aims to prevent further political gridlock by having only Christian citizens vote in the first round, to be followed by a national election of that round’s top two vote winners. The Lebanese army conducted a series of raids yesterday following a string of terrorist attacks in Tripoli this week. Four men were wounded in a grenade attack on a Tripoli café yesterday and a roadside charge exploded near an army patrol on Tuesday. Egypt. Egyptian police arrested four members of the Sinai-based Ansar Beit al-Maqdis yesterday in connection to bomb blasts that killed two police officers Monday and wounded ten others outside the presidential palace in Cairo. The arrests came after another group, Ajnad Misr, warned civilians days before to stay away from certain areas where it had planted bombs to target security forces.  Meanwhile, a criminal court sentenced Abdullah Morsi, son of ousted President Mohamed Morsi, to a year in prison on drug possession and consumption charges yesterday on the eve of the one-year anniversary of the military’s removal of his father from office. Kuwait. Thousands of protestors took to the streets in Kuwait last night following a court decision  to hold prominent opposition leader and former parliament member Musallam al-Barrak, for 10 days after questioning him for insulting the judiciary. Police fired tear gas and stun grenades to disperse the crowd, which had marched from Barrak’s house to the jail where he is being detained, demanding his release. Barrak, who was the longest serving member of parliament, has been active in calling for political reform and an end to corruption in Kuwait. Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia announced Tuesday $500 million in humanitarian aid that will be delivered through the United Nations to address the growing Iraqi refugee crisis caused by the country’s recent insurgency and violence. Tunisia. Four soldiers were killed in a landmine explosion in Tunisia’s Kef region yesterday while destroying the hideaway of a terrorist group. The explosion came a day after a roadside bomb wounded six Tunisian security officers on the Algerian border Tuesday.  Meanwhile, two employees of the Tunisian embassy in Tripoli, Libya were released Sunday after having been kidnapped in March and April of this year.

The terrible news today confirming the death of three Israeli Yeshiva students abducted eighteen days ago in the West Bank forces Israeli and Palestinian leaders to confront some very difficult decisions. The discovery of the students’ bodies and the confirmation of their killing will doubtless lead to a strong Israeli military response. Even dovish President Shimon Peres declared that Israel’s retribution would be harsh. But just what that means will be shaped to some extent by the way Palestinian leaders react to today’s news. Visiting Israel and the West Bank last week, I heard Israeli and Palestinians of all stripes largely anticipate a bad ending to the kidnapping saga. Yet nobody could clearly envisage what would happen next. What is clear now is that action is imminent. At the onset of the emergency Israeli cabinet meeting taking place as of this writing, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared: “Hamas is responsible and Hamas will pay" for the abduction and killing of the three Israeli teenagers in the West Bank. Israel’s Actions So Far. After Israel discovered that the three students had been abducted June 12, Netanyahu launched the largest IDF military operation in the West Bank in over a decade. Not since then-IDF chief of staff Boogie Ya’alon—now defense minister—undertook the military crackdown that brought about an end to the second intifada has Israel acted with such force in the areas controlled by the Palestinian Authority. These recent IDF actions resulted in the incarceration of over 400 Hamas suspects, the capture of Hamas’s weapons caches, and ultimately the discovery today of the three dead Israeli students. But Israel decided last week to reel in these operations somewhat, even before the students were discovered, after the death of some half-dozen Palestinian civilians started to produce serious popular West Bank outrage. Palestinian protesters in Ramallah, among other West Bank locations, turned their ire not at the Israelis, but at their own Palestinian security forces, who they accused of collaborating with Israel’s security services. That Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas had denounced the kidnapping during a visit to Saudi Arabia, while Netanyahu delayed in acknowledging Abbas’s words and refusing to empathize with the loss of Palestinian lives, led PA officials to feel extremely vulnerable politically. Not only did they fear that Netanyahu was out to free the students, but they worried that Israel was trying to punish Abbas for having formed a unity agreement with Hamas last month. Israeli officials recognized the precariousness of the Palestinian Authority’s position and concluded that its survival was an Israeli interest. Now, with the death of the kidnapped students, Israeli must make some difficult choices. To take further military action in the West Bank could put further strain on the Palestinian Authority and its security forces who Israeli officials quietly acknowledge have been extremely cooperative to date. Having blamed Hamas for the kidnapping, Israel’s more logical target would be Hamas’s leadership in Gaza. Already, the Israeli-Gazan front has been heating up over the past few weeks, with over a dozen Hamas solvos launched into Israel earlier today alone. Yet a serious ground operation in Gaza would be politically risky and militarily dangerous for Israeli forces. Significant air operations are more likely. But they could lead Hamas to abrogate its periodically violated truce with Israel and unleash rockets that could target Israel’s major population centers. Suspending the Unity Agreement? Abbas now faces widespread calls from Israel and abroad to abrogate the unity pact his Fatah party reached with Hamas last April. That agreement led to the formation of a technocratic government that was widely recognized internationally, including by the United States. Yet with today’s news, even Israeli leaders on the left are calling on Abbas to disassociate itself from Hamas and the unity agreement. Such a move would put Abbas firmly on Israel’s side, and could help salve badly strained Israeli-Palestinian relations. Israel would have to recognize the political benefits of such a move, and may be convinced to temper its military actions so as not strain Abbas’s standing before his people. For Abbas to abrogate the understanding with Hamas would be justified, courageous, and politically difficult. Fatah-Hamas unity is widely popular with the Palestinians across the political spectrum, particularly as it is seen as the only serious means for reuniting the West Bank and Gaza politically and economically. To break the agreement now would push such reunification further away. Moreover, for Abbas to dissolve the unity government would render unlikely the raison d’etre for the accord: the holding of Palestinian national and legislative elections. Such elections provided Abbas the prospect of renewed legitimacy after nearly a decade without functioning Palestinian political institutions or electoral politics. The end of the unity agreement and new elections also robs the 79-year old Abbas of a potential legacy item and exit strategy in the wake of Secretary of State John Kerry’s failed peace efforts. Hamas’s Response. The only other party that could possibly stave off an intensive Israeli response right now is Hamas itself, which has never claimed responsibility for the kidnapping. Hamas’s public position so far has been vague and ambiguous, despite the strong suggestions by Israel and the United States that the terrorist group was responsible for the kidnapping. Initially, Hamas praised the kidnappings and praised the “heroes” who carried them out. Over time, however, Hamas has rejected the charges that it had directed the operation from Gaza. Following the discovery of the dead students, Hamas spokesman Sami Abu Zuhri accused Israel of blaming Hamas to prepare the way for military action. Only a clear and firm Hamas condemnation of the kidnapping and deaths could serve to stave off Israel’s ire and protect the unity agreement with Fatah from further Israeli and international opprobrium. Such a Hamas move is highly unlikely however. Israel, the PA, and Hamas are now at a critical juncture. Strong Israeli military operations against Hamas, which it deems responsible for the deaths of the three students, now seems inevitable. Yet the way in which Israel proceeds will no doubt be shaped by actions of other players, particularly Palestinian president Abbas.

Significant Developments Iraq. State television network Iraqiya announced today that the Iraqi parliament will convene Monday to form a new government. Meanwhile, prominent Shia religious leader Moqtada al-Sadr called for an inclusive emergency unity government that would appeal to the demands of marginalized moderate Sunni citizens. Yesterday, prime minister Nouri al-Maliki rejected international calls to form a unity government, which he called a “coup” against the constitution. Fighting escalated this week as Syrian warplanes conducted airstrikes on Monday and Tuesday against rebels from the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIL). It was unclear whether these strikes were in Iraq or on the Syrian side of the border. At least 50 people were killed in the attacks. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Sunday that the U.S. should not intervene in Iraq, though Maliki has asked for Western support in fighting the rebels. The New York Times reported yesterday that Iran has been secretly sending surveillance drones and military equipment into Iraq. Meanwhile, Iraqi officials reported yesterday that ISIL rebels are advancing on the Haditha Dam, the second largest in Iraq, raising fears of possible floods. Egypt. An Egyptian court Monday sentenced three Al Jazeera journalists to jail for seven to ten years on charges of spreading false news and supporting the Muslim Brotherhood. The sentence was announced on the heels of Secretary of State John Kerry’s visit to Cairo where he met with President Abdelfattah el-Sisi to discuss repairing bilateral relations and promised a renewal of $650 million in aid that had been withheld after the coup last July. Kerry urged the Egyptian leader to uphold human rights. Following the court’s verdict, Sisi announced during a televised speech at a military graduation that he would not intervene in the case, citing the need for Egyptian authorities to respect the independence of the judiciary, “even if others do not understand this." White House spokesman Josh Earnest called the verdict "a blow to democratic progress in Egypt." Sisi visited Algeria yesterday on his first foreign visit since presidential elections earlier this month. Sisi called for Egyptian coordination with Algeria in fighting terrorism. His call came as explosions at four Cairo metro stations and a courthouse, injuring eight people. Sisi also pledged this week that he would give up half of his salary and property and encouraged others to begin making similar sacrifices to usher in a period of austerity Israel-Palestine. Israel today announced the identities of two main suspects, both Hamas members, in the kidnapping of three Yeshiva students two weeks ago in Hebron. Earlier this week, the IDF conducted its most significant military operation in the West Bank in over a decade earlier as it searched for the teenagers, arresting over 400 Palestinians. On Monday, Palestinian protesters in Ramallah threw rocks at Palestinian Authority security forces, accusing them of collaboration with Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called upon Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas to abrogate the unity agreement with Hamas from earlier this month forming a technocratic government. Meanwhile, all seventy-five hunger-striking Palestinian detainees agreed to suspend their strike yesterday, ending a protest that lasted over two months against Israel’s administrative detention policy. The hunger strikers received commitments that they will not be punished for their participation in the protest, and that the discussion over Israel’s policy will continue. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu praised his government for ending the strike and praised deterrence methods, including the forced-feeding of prisoners that will be taken up for a vote in the Knesset next week. U.S. Foreign Policy Following his stop in Cairo on Sunday, Secretary of State John Kerry visited Jordan and Iraq, where he met Iraqi prime minister Nouri al-Maliki. Kerry promised the Iraqi leader sustained U.S. support while urging the prime minister to push for the formation of an inclusive government. U.S. officials are privately reportedly seeking an alternative to Maliki. Kerry said the insurgency by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria is not only an “existential threat” to Iraq, but to the entire region. Kerry also visited Iraqi Kurdistan, where he met Masoud Barzani, President of Iraq’s Kurdish region. The State Department announced yesterday that Kerry will return to the region on Friday to meet Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah to discuss the Iraq crisis. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Lebanon. A suicide bomber killed himself in a botched attempt to blow up a Beirut hotel yesterday, the third such attack in Lebanon this week. A bombing Monday night near a checkpoint and café led to the death of the assailant and a security officer and injured 20 others who were watching a World Cup match. The first in this string of attacks was in eastern Lebanon last Friday, when a suicide bomber used a car bomb to kill an officer and wounded several others. While not claiming responsibility for the attacks, Sirajuddin Zurayqat, a spokesman for the Abdullah Azzam Brigades, an Al Qaeda-linked group, said that such attacks would continue as long as Hezbollah continues to take part in the Syrian civil war. Libya. Prominent human rights activist and lawyer Salwa Bugaighis was assassinated in her Benghazi home yesterday, casting a shadow over Libya’s parliamentary election proceedings. After weeks of the most serious violence in their country since the 2011 uprising, few Libyans headed to the polls to elect the membership of a 200-seat House of Representatives to replace the current interim parliament elected in July 2012. This is the third legislative election to take place in Libya since the end of the uprising in 2011. Though Khalifa Hiftar, the renegade general who has been conducting an offensive to purge the country of Islamist militias, imposed a 24-hour ceasefire, there were reports of several attacks on security officials and their headquarters. Yemen. Al Qaeda conducted three attacks in southern Yemen today following weeks of fighting between the military and Houthi rebels in the north. Al Qaeda fighters attacked an airport in the southern province of Sayoun, killing at least 15 people, while a suicide bomber drove a car filled with explosives into military barracks, killing nine civilians nearby. Militants also attacked the main post office in the province, killing six soldiers and wounding several others. Yesterday, a senior intelligence officer— who was investigating a link between Al Qaeda affiliated groups and the killing of foreigners in Yemen—was assassinated in front of his house in Sanaa. Jordan. Militant cleric Abu Qatada was acquitted today by a military court on charges of planning a terrorist attack on an American school in Amman in the late 1990s. The ruling marked a reversal of a conviction 14 years ago in which Abu Qatada had been sentenced to death. The cleric will not be released, however, as he will continue to be held in connection with a case regarding a plot to bomb tourists at millennium celebrations in 2000. British Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg said today that Britain will not allow him back if he is freed; Qatada had been granted asylum and was living in the UK under house arrest prior to his deportation last year. Tunisia. The Tunisian Parliament yesterday approved dates for upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections submitted by the country’s election commission last week. Parliamentary elections will be held on October 26, and the first round of presidential elections will be on November 23. Bahrain. Nabeel Rajab, the prominent human rights activist and head of the Bahrain Centre for Human Rights, was released yesterday following his completion of a two-year jail sentence. Rajab, convicted for encouraging anti-government protests in 2011, is expected to continue his previous work. Syria. State media and activists announced Sunday a ceasefire agreement between the Syrian government and groups fighting in Yarmouk—the largest Palestinian refugee camp in Syria. If upheld, the agreement would help ease the suffering of 18,000 refugees in need of aid who have been under a government-imposed blockade since mid-2013.

Significant Developments Iraq. President Obama told reporters today that the United States will deploy up to 300 military advisors to Iraq to help the country’s security services "take the fight" to the militants from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). Obama reiterated his earlier pledge to not send combat troops to Iraq.  ISIL insurgents have captured several cities in northern Iraq and are holding on the outskirts of Baghdad. Obama called the current crisis "Maliki’s test," but would not speak to the Iraqi prime minister’s competence as a unifier capable of creating an “inclusive agenda.” The New York Times reported today that Iraqi government officials claimed to have the upper hand after two day’s of fighting for control of Iraq’s biggest oil refinery in the city of Baiji, 130 miles north of Baghdad. Eyewitnesses claim, however, that the militants’ flags continue to fly over the facility. Iran. Secretary of State John Kerry expressed a willingness to share information about the Iraqi insurgency with the Iranian government but not to work with Iran to abet the crisis. Deputy Secretary of State Bill Burns met with his Iranian counterpart briefly on Monday and reportedly discussed the Iraq crisis with Tehran’s envoys. Iranian officials reportedly told the Americans that Iran would only help stabilize Iraq if there is forward progress in P5+1 talks on Iran’s nuclear program. Those multilateral talks continued last week with Iran allegedly refusing to significantly cut the number of centrifuges it intends to keep to produce nuclear fuel, dampening hopes somewhat for a comprehensive accord next month. Meanwhile, the Iranian government has vowed to protect Shia sites in Iraq and to support those fighting ISIS, including Sunnis, President Rouhani wrote in a tweet published yesterday. Egypt. An Egyptian court sentenced Muslim Brotherhood chief Mohammad Badie and prominent leaders Safwat Hegazy and Mohamed El-Beltagi along with eleven others to death today on charges over violence that led to ten deaths last summer. The decision follows yesterday’s sentencing to death of twelve supporters of ousted President Mohamed Morsi on charges of killing a police general last September. Ending ten months of imprisonment without charge, Egypt’s prosecutor general ordered the release of Al-Jazeera journalist Abdullah el-Shamy, who has been on hunger strike for over four months, on Monday, citing health conditions. Shamy’s release brought hope to other Al-Jazeera staff members who await a verdict in their trial this upcoming Monday. These moves came as President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi swore in a cabinet of 34 ministers on Tuesday, 13 of whom are new. Changes included the removal of the Ministry of Information and the creation of a Ministry of Urban Development. Egypt regained its membership in the African Union on Tuesday, after almost a year-long freeze that began following the overthrow of President Morsi last July. U.S. Foreign Policy Libya.  In a secret nighttime raid Sunday night, United States military officials captured Ahmed Abu Khattala, the most prominent suspect wanted in the attack on the U.S. compounds in Libya in 2012 which led to the deaths of four Americans, including Ambassador Chris Stevens. The Libyan government, which had not been notified of the raid prior to President Obama’s authorization of it, condemned the capture as a breach of sovereignty. Justice Minister Saleh al-Marghani said yesterday that Khatallah—who is currently expected to face trial in the United States—should be returned to Libya and tried there. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Israel. Senior Hamas official Salah Bardawi threatened the start of a third intifada today amid Israel’s crackdown on the group and its arrest of over 280 West Bank Palestinians—many of whom are affiliated with Hamas—in its search for three Yeshiva students kidnapped last Thursday near Hebron. Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas condemned the kidnapping on Monday, and also denounced the Israeli military’s response to it. Syria. Following his statements last week that the West is shifting its position on the conflict in Syria, President Bashar al-Assad said yesterday to a North Korean delegation in Damascus that terrorists will strike back against the countries that supported attacks in Syria and across the Middle East. “The West and countries that support extremism and terrorism in Syria and the region ... must realize that this growing threat will strike the whole world, especially the countries that support terrorism and that allowed it to grow." Meanwhile, fighting in Syria continued Monday when government helicopters dropped barrel bombs on opposition-held districts of Aleppo, reportedly killing at least 60 people. Turkey. A Turkish court announced life sentences yesterday for ninety-six–year-old former president Kenan Evren and eighty-nine–year-old former air force commander Tahsin Sahinkaya, the only surviving leaders of a 1980 military coup against the then civilian-led government. The officers are the first to be tried for a coup in Turkish history, following a 2010 referendum that overturned a constitutional clause that granted generals immunity. Meanwhile, Turkey’s two largest opposition parties—the Republican People’s Party and the Nationalist Action Party—announced on Monday their joint nomination of Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu, former Secretary-General of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, for the upcoming presidential elections in August. The decision came as a surprise to many, given the groups’ secular bent and Ihnsanoglu’s reputation as a conservative. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is expected to contest the elections as well. Yemen. Yemen’s government began conducting raids on Houthi rebels on Tuesday, following attacks on army members beginning Sunday, which ended an 11-day truce brokered by UN envoy Jamal Benomar. Although military officials did not provide an estimate, local sources told Agence France-Presse that dozens had been killed on both sides since the fighting began on Sunday. Yemeni troops were also busy in Sanaa over the weekend, as they surrounded and blocked access to a mosque controlled by former president Ali Abdullah Saleh in response to concerns that the ousted leader was plotting a coup. Lebanon. Lebanese parliament speaker Nabih Berri postponed the seventh parliamentary session to elect a new president yesterday after only 63 out of the 128 lawmakers attended the session. Opposition parties have boycotted all seven sessions since April, citing a lack of agreement on a consensus candidate. Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun, whose bloc has been boycotting parliamentary sessions, said in a television interview Monday that the current stalemate is incredibly dangerous and unconstitutional: “If we reach parliamentary polls [scheduled for November] before holding the presidential election, then the political situation in Lebanon will explode.” Tunisia. Tunisia’s election commission announced on Monday dates for upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections which it will submit to the parliament for approval. These elections will be the first since those that put the Islamist Ennahda party in power, though it handed power over to the current caretaker government in December 2013. If approved, parliamentary elections will be held on October 26, the first session of the presidential vote on November 23, and the second session on December 26.