What Hurricane Milton’s Damage Says About Climate Preparedness

Alice Hill is the David M. Rubenstein senior fellow for energy and the environment at the Council on Foreign Relations.

How serious is the loss and damage from Hurricane Milton? 

At landfall, Milton carried winds of 120 miles-per-hour or more and life-threatening storm surge, cascading into one of the most intense hurricanes ever recorded in the Atlantic basin. The hurricane left 3.5 million people without electricity. At least twenty-four deaths have been confirmed as of October 14.

Hurricane Milton also produced what is likely one of the worst tornado outbreaks in Florida. Without the influence of climate change, Milton would probably have made landfall as a category 2 storm instead of the category 3 storm it became. Experts warn that the supercharged intensification of Milton represents an unnatural extreme weather event, the likes of which will continue to rise due to fossil fuel-driven warming. Making matters worse, Florida communities were still recovering from Hurricane Helene, which flooded parts of the state and North Carolina just two weeks prior. Scientists say Hurricane Helene was also worsened by climate change.

The head of AccuWeather, the American private weather forecasting media company, preliminarily estimated Milton’s economic loss at between $160 and $180 billion. Insured losses will be less but still significant, with estimates ranging from $30 to $60 billion. Uninsured losses from Hurricane Milton will likely greatly exceed insured losses. Many homeowners likely also lack flood insurance, which typically requires a separate policy from the National Flood Insurance Program. One analyst from the Insurance Information Institute notes that only about 20 percent of homeowners have flood insurance in Florida. Moreover, President Joe Biden announced on Tuesday that the Small Business Administration’s disaster loan program funds are depleted after the dual hurricanes.

What lessons have been learned from dealing with the upsurge of such epic storms, especially in Florida?

Strong building codes work. Florida is a hurricane-prone state. It has extensive emergency response procedures in place. It also has a strong building code, which was put in place after Hurricane Andrew flattened more than sixty thousand homes in 1992. Both the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the Institute for Business and Home Safety rate Florida’s building codes as among the most effective in the nation. These advantages helped curb the extent of damage. 

Disinformation poses a new danger. The spread of false information around the federal government’s response to both Milton and Helene has exacerbated the chaos and challenges of disaster relief efforts. FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell called the distrust and dissuasion created by false conspiracies “the absolute worst [she had] ever seen.” The Wall Street Journal reported that following Hurricane Helene, white supremacist and neo-Nazi groups, posing as rescue workers, were offering aid while filming propaganda videos and spreading disinformation about the government’s response.

Countering disinformation can force emergency workers to divert resources from rapid response to providing correct information to disaster victims instead. Meanwhile, false information can frighten people away from seeking the help and resources they need. FEMA employees are also seeing threats to their safety, with one man recently arrested after brandishing a gun and knife on a FEMA employee responding to Hurricane Helene in North Carolina.

What can be done to build more climate-resilient communities in the future?

Rising temperatures primarily caused by the burning of fossil fuels will likely generate even bigger storms ahead. Coastal communities will have to contend with more growing storm surges brought by higher sea levels. The added moisture carried by the atmosphere can drive more flooding. And higher ocean temperatures can lead to swift intensification of storms. To address the potential risks of these climate disasters, the government and local communities could:

Listen to property insurance signals. Before Hurricanes Helene and Milton hammered Florida, the state’s property insurance market was already struggling, with Floridians paying the highest premiums nationally, according to the insurance comparison company Insurify. As of 2023, Floridians paid on average $3,340 for homeowner’s insurance. The losses from these two storms will likely further drive up premium prices and could threaten the survival of some smaller insurers with policies concentrated in the state.

When homeowners have insufficient insurance or lack insurance entirely, they are forced to rely on savings, charity, and/or the government to cover losses. They would likely need to take on significant debt to cover repair costs. They could be able to only make partial repairs, or they may decide to abandon their property altogether. Unrepaired homes can lead to declining neighborhood property values. This, in turn, can stress communities. With fewer people and businesses paying taxes, local governments would struggle to pay for local services. The recovery timeline then could drag on longer. Banks and lenders could experience more mortgage defaults with floods rendering homes uninhabitable. 

Uninsured losses can also widen the wealth gap, with wealthier homeowners more likely to be able to cover the losses through insurance or other resources. The federal government’s Financial Stability Oversight Council has warned that increasing climate-related losses and declining insurance coverage could carry financial stability implications.

When insurance companies raise premiums, it can be a signal that risk is escalating. Higher insurance costs in the United States have followed increasing damage from climate-worsened events. As with the proverbial canary in the coal mine, communities and homeowners alike should pay attention to that signal when making choices as to where to invest and live. 

Improve building codes. To reduce the risk caused by worsening climate-fueled extremes, communities should examine their building codes and standards to ensure that they provide sufficient protection against current and future extreme weather. The National Institute of Building Sciences estimates that for every dollar spent on adopting the strongest building codes, eleven dollars is saved on damages. Yet, according to FEMA, 65 percent of U.S. counties, cities, and towns have yet to adopt modern building codes as of November 2020.

Examine land-use choices. Permitting more development in areas at substantial risk to climate extremes, such as storm surge and wildfire, means that structures are destined to burn and flood in the future. Improved land use and building practices can increase the insurability of homes. Taking these steps could also help stem the rise in insurance premiums in the future.

This work represents the views and opinions solely of the author. The Council on Foreign Relations is an independent, nonpartisan membership organization, think tank, and publisher, and takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.