• Turkey
    Turkey-EU Trade on Tenterhooks? Faltering Membership Talks Threaten Economic Ties
    Sabina Frizell is a research associate in the Civil Society, Markets, and Democracy Program at the Council on Foreign Relations. After yesterday’s assassination of the Russian ambassador, Turkish officials were quick to place blame on Fetullah Gulen, an exiled religious leader and one of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s strongest critics. Erdogan is sure to use the attack as yet another justification to silence dissenting voices in the name of security. His ongoing crackdown further diminishes Turkey’s prospects for joining the European Union (EU), following the European Parliament’s overwhelming vote on November 24 to suspend membership negotiations. While the European Parliament’s vote was largely symbolic, it adds urgency to the question of whether, after decades of Turkey’s slow progress toward membership and ten-plus years of stop-and-start negotiations, the EU should continue membership negotiations. Most analysts have focused on what ending the talks would mean for the EU-Turkey migrant deal, Turkish democracy, and already-deteriorating human rights under Erdogan. However,  the effect on trade issues has been largely overlooked. Turkish and EU economies are deeply intertwined despite mounting political tensions. In considering membership negotiations, the EU must take trade into account, as ending talks would undermine these mutually beneficial economic linkages. Fifty Years in Waiting Understanding the current crisis requires an appreciation of Turkey’s long, faltering path toward membership—and of the negotiations’ futility. With or without the talks, Turkey is highly unlikely to become an EU member in the foreseeable future. The EU has always been reluctant to grant Turkey membership, due partially to legitimate concerns about governance, but also to cultural and religious prejudice. EU membership negotiations are based on the Copenhagen Criteria, composed of thirty-five chapters outlining the principles and standards with which all candidate countries must comply. Throughout the 2000’s, Turkey made substantial progress on these criteria. It solidified what the EU deemed a “functioning market economy” that could withstand competitive pressure within Europe, and afforded greater freedom and rights to ethnic and religious minorities. But Europe justifiably expressed concern about overly broad antiterrorism laws, insufficient measures to fight corruption, and the lack of an independent judiciary. However, there is also evidence that Europeans hold Turkey to more stringent standards than other candidate countries. As Turkey made progress on the Copenhagen Criteria, perhaps faster than expected, some European politicians pointed to “cultural differences” and claimed that Turkey is in some indelible way “not a European country.” The hesitation to support Turkey’s membership revealed anti-Muslim sentiment that likely undermined the accession process all along. In light of this reluctance, Erdogan’s backtracking on democratic progress makes accession nearly impossible. In the past month, Erdogan’s government has gone further than ever to quash dissent by dismissing thousands of workers, shutting down dozens of news outlets, and jailing journalist and opposition leaders. The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) looks set to issue a referendum that could allow Erdogan to stay in office until 2029, and Erdogan raised the possibility of reinstating the death penalty—which would be a deal-breaker for the EU. Trade Matters Though negotiations are currently at an impasse, they help to maintain fraught but vital trade ties between Turkey and the EU. Without the talks, the cornerstone of their trade relationship, the EU-Turkey Customs Union could crumble, harming both economies. The Customs Union, established in 1995, eliminated customs duties and other import restrictions on trade between Turkey and the EU. Though several major sectors were exempt, the union was a boon to the manufacturing sector for both parties. It increased trade between the EU and Turkey fourfold and triggered a similar rise in foreign investment flows to Turkey. Research shows that Turkey improved its competitive advantage for dozens of different products since 1995. The union also provided an impetus for broader trade facilitation and customs reform, which helped Turkey open up to the world and achieve 6 to 9 percent growth in gross domestic product (GDP) from 1995 to 2005. For the EU, Turkey became an increasingly important part of supply chains. German companies especially rely on Turkey to produce unfinished parts of goods that are then imported and incorporated into final products. Germany’s metal, chemical, and automobile sectors all draw heavily on Turkish imports. Despite its benefits, the Customs Union is an unequal agreement. Ankara is obliged to comply with the EU’s trade agreements with third-party countries and open up to those markets—but as a non-EU member, it is not granted a seat at the negotiating table. This leaves Turkey deprived of the ability to govern its own trade future. The union was intended as an interim step toward full membership. But if the EU takes membership off the table, it is hard to imagine that Erdogan would continue to accept these debilitating conditions indefinitely. What would happen if membership talks were suspended and the Customs Union abolished? On the EU side, the move would fragment manufactured goods production. For Turkey, the effects would be much more significant. About 60 percent of its exports are to Europe, representing 12.5 percent of GDP. Diminished ties with its top trade partner could threaten not only Turkey’s economy, but its long term security. Research shows that countries with open economies are less likely to experience internal conflict—and given the Syrian civil war’s spillover and Turkey’s ongoing conflict with the Kurds, the country’s security is already tenuous. As Turkey’s security is tied to that of Europe, maintaining stability should be a top priority for the EU. Recent coverage of EU-Turkey talks tends to ignore consequences for trade, and by extension, Turkish stability. Freezing negotiations and thus endangering the Customs Union would damage Turkey’s already-flailing economy. Amid Turkey’s democratic retreat, it may be too late for Europe to shed its prejudice and seriously consider Turkey’s candidacy. However, ending talks now would be a mistake without a day-after alternative to ensure trade endures.
  • Terrorism and Counterterrorism
    Violence for Violence’s Sake
    The perpetrators of the attacks this weekend in Egypt and in Turkey murdered people because that is what they do.
  • Arab Spring
    False Dawn
    Announcing Steven A. Cook's new book, False Dawn: Protest, Democracy, and Violence in the New Middle East, which will be published by Oxford University Press in the spring of 2017.
  • Turkey
    Turkey: Writing “Erdo” Stories
    There is indeed too much focus on President Recep Tayyip Erdogan the person, but there are good analytic reasons why the Turkish leader gets so much ink.
  • Iran
    The Danger to Scholars
    I’m a proud co-signer of an open letter defending some of America’s most impressive scholars against Middle Eastern dictators who are trying to keep them out and shut them up. The title is "Open letter on the hostility of Middle Eastern governments and media to foreign researchers and journalists," and it can be found here (with a full list of signers) and below. The letter was in part a reaction to the vicious attacks by the Erdogan government in Turkey against Henri Barkey, a distinguished scholar of Turkey who is director of the Middle East Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. Media outlets in Turkey that support Erdogan have alleged that Barkey is a CIA agent who arranged and supported the recent coup attempt. There are plenty of other recent examples of such attacks, and the letter mentions the refusal of the Sisi government in Egypt to permit entry into that country of Michele Dunne. Dunne, an Egypt expert who is a former U.S. official (a career diplomat who also served in the NSC) and now a researcher at the Carnegie Endowment, was invited to a conference in Cairo by the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs--but prevented from attending by government agents at the airport. The Italian graduate student Giulio Regeni was killed in Egypt in January of this year. Nine years ago Haleh Esfandiari, the Woodrow Wilson Center’s former Middle East director, was arrested in Tehran and jailed in solitary confinement in Evin Prison for 105 days. Anyone who thought that kind of attack on scholars was limited to a tyranny like Iran has been proved wrong now in Turkey and Egypt. Note also these lines in the letter: "The official American reaction to these abuses in the past has been much too timid. As American citizens, we have often found it embarrassing." Quite right.     OPEN LETTER ON THE HOSTILITY OF MIDDLE EASTERN GOVERNMENTS AND MEDIA TO FOREIGN RESEARCHERS AND JOURNALISTS   The undersigned individuals have all worked or lived in the Middle East, as scholars, academics, journalists, or members of non-governmental organizations. We are American citizens. Our work is a testimony to our deep appreciation for the rich history, culture, and politics of the modern Middle East. We believe in the need to study the governments and peoples of this pivotal region and their complex relations with the United States objectively and unapologetically. Many of us have spent most of our careers trying to foster better understanding between the two worlds in which we live and work. This is why we find the recent case of Henri J. Barkey, an American scholar of modern Turkey, particularly alarming. Turkish media outlets have alleged that Barkey, who is the director of the Middle East Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, worked with the CIA in launching the plot to overthrow the Turkish government by force. The failed coup was a shocking, traumatic, and violent event that took the lives of 240 Turks. The authorities in Ankara have the responsibility to bring those involved in the plot to justice. At the time of the coup, Barkey was leading an academic seminar in Istanbul. In the aftermath, the pro-government media singled him out as a foreign bogeyman. His picture was splashed across the front pages of Turkey’s newspapers along with banner headlines alleging a connection between Barkey, the CIA, and the failed coup. The slander and outrageous charges grew more ominous with each passing day, in a clear and dangerous campaign of incitement that led to direct threats against Barkey’s life. No member of the Turkish media has been held accountable for these lies. Of course, Turkey is not the only such wrongdoer in the region. Both Iran and Egypt also come to mind. Nine years ago, Haleh Esfandiari, an American scholar and Barkey’s predecessor at the Wilson Center was arrested in Tehran and placed in solitary confinement in Evin Prison for 105 days. Esfandiari, who was in her late 60s when she was arrested, is a dual citizen of the United States and Iran. The Iranian government accused her — along with two other academics with dual American and Iranian nationality — of attempting to stage a “soft revolution” by organizing and participating in seminars and conferences. Although Barkey was able to leave Turkey shortly after the coup, he fears a fate similar to Esfandiari’s should he return to the country of his birth. Two years ago, Egyptian authorities denied American scholar and former U.S. government official Michele Dunne entry to the country to participate in a conference organized by the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs, a group that is sympathetic to Abdel Fattah el Sisi’s government. Egyptian officials offered the bogus excuse that Dunne, did not have a “proper visa.” The real reason was that Dunne, who is an accomplished scholar and former diplomat, has criticized Egypt’s deteriorating human rights conditions, particularly since President Sisi came to power in a 2013 military coup. Younger, less well-known scholars are also at risk. Among the most disturbing of recent cases is that of Giulio Regeni, a 28-year-old-Italian graduate student who was conducting dissertation field research in Egypt. Regeni’s family, the Italian government, and a wide range of journalists from a variety of countries believe that Egyptian security agencies tortured and killed him last February. The official American reaction to these abuses in the past has been much too timid. As American citizens, we have often found it embarrassing. We are expressing our collective indignation, because we are certain that these abuses will continue unless they are challenged publicly. The perpetrators must be held to account. We are urging other scholars, academics, and journalists interested in the Middle East to join us in sending a powerful message to the autocrats of the region and to our own government that enough is enough. Those who first came for Haleh, and imprisoned her, then tried to intimidate Michele and Henri, could come for any one of us when visiting the region. This protest is about all of us. Even more importantly, it is about our belief that the interests of the United States and these countries are served by the open exchange of people and ideas. Fundamentally important to that exchange are academic and political freedoms for all participants in these dialogues, whether they be local citizens, dual nationals, or U.S. citizens. The recent actions of the pro-government press in Turkey place the exchange of genuine ideas at risk, replacing them with political theater in which we have little interest. We find the Turkish media’s campaign against Henri Barkey, the latest in a series of outrages against academic and political freedom, offensive and personally threatening. We hope that Turkey’s leaders and the press that serves them will reverse course otherwise we will find it difficult to engage in any way with the Turkish government, its media outlets, or nominally independent organizations in Washington that work on behalf of Turkey’s leadership.  
  • Global
    The World Next Week: August 18, 2016
    Podcast
    U.S. Vice President Joseph Biden visits Turkey, Ukraine marks twenty five years as an independent nation, and the Rio Olympics come to an end.
  • Turkey
    Turkey Is No Longer a Reliable Ally
    The failed coup was a clarifying moment. Ankara and Washington don’t share values or interests.
  • Turkey
    Turkey’s Failed Coup and the United States
    Ever since Turkey’s failed coup, government officials, politicians, and the pro-government media have falsely accused the United States for planning the military intervention.
  • Europe and Eurasia
    This Week in Markets and Democracy: New Panama Papers, 1MDB Scandal Developments, Turkey Targets Press
    New Panama Papers Expose Africa’s Offshore Dealings The International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) released a second round of Panama Papers. The documents reveal how private firms, business executives, and corrupt officials in fifty-two of Africa’s fifty-four nations hired Panamanian law firm Mossack Fonseca to set up shell companies—many to avoid taxes and hide bribes. Some 1,400 anonymous companies had links to African oil, gas, and mining businesses, facilitating the more than $50 billion in illicit financial outflows from the continent each year. The new releases should give authorities evidence to go after assets at home and abroad—where billions in corruption proceeds are stashed. Ongoing Developments in 1MDB Scandal Last week, the United States, Singapore, and Switzerland went after $1 billion in assets linked to Malaysian state investment fund 1MDB. The U.S. Justice Department’s part represents the largest seizure ever attempted under the Kleptocracy Asset Recovery Initiative. Many of the bank accounts, properties, paintings, and other assets are widely believed to be controlled by Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak and his cronies. Still none face criminal charges at home, and as my colleague Joshua Kurlantzick notes, Najib will likely remain in power. More vulnerable are 1MDB’s banks. U.S. law enforcement officials are investigating anti-money laundering lapses at Goldman Sachs, and Singapore has vowed to take action against four other banks for processing the funds’ transactions. Turkish Government Targets the Press After purging the military, police, courts, and schools, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is going after the media. Turkey is already a tough place to report—Reporters Without Borders ranks it 151 of 180 nations due to internet censorship, press office raids, and harassment of journalists for “insulting the president.” Now, citing links to alleged coup plot leader Fethullah Gülen, Erdogan shut down over 130 media outlets and issued arrest warrants for nearly ninety journalists, as Turkey descends further into authoritarianism.