Economics

Financial Markets

  • Development
    Democracy in Development: The Slow Shift from Cash Economies to Mobile Banking
    Today on my blog, I discuss how mobile money stands to reduce poverty by making financial services more inclusive and accessible--as well as the obstacles to fulfilling this possibility. As I write: If mobile banking is to meet its potential for the world’s poor, it must supplant the cash economies that still constrain too many livelihoods. You can read the full post here.
  • Development
    Democracy in Development: An Update on Mobile Technology in Development
    This week on my blog, I featured a two-part series on mobile technology in the developing world. On Tuesday, I wrote about how mobile phones are enabling people in the developing world to access banking services and obtain life insurance. On Thursday, I discussed how mobile technology helps NGOs extend resources and aid to those in need—and how it helps evaluate the impact of these projects. As I write in Tuesday’s post: In the past, one reason why banks did not court the poor as clients is because the cost of processing their small transactions outweighed any advantage to the bank; but mobile technology is significantly decreasing transaction costs. You can read part one here and part two here.
  • Europe and Eurasia
    Can Banking Plan Aid Eurozone?
    A proposed centralized banking supervisor could help stabilize Europe’s struggling banks and increase vital capital flows within the euro area, says expert Domenico Lombardi.
  • Financial Markets
    The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision
    Controversies over too-big-to-fail financial institutions continue to mount. The Basel Accords represent the latest effort to ease risk and restore confidence, as this Backgrounder explains.
  • Financial Markets
    The Libor Scandal: Three Things to Know
    Ongoing investigations into Barclays’ fraudulent Libor submissions highlights critical lessons about conflicts of interest, pressures on regulators, and banks that are too big to fail, says CFR’s Sebastian Mallaby.
  • Development
    Emerging Voices: Vishnu Sridharan on Cash Transfers and Financial Inclusion
    This article is from Vishnu Sridharan, program associate with the Global Assets Project of the New America Foundation. Sridharan analyzes efforts undertaken so far to link cash transfers for low-income families to financial services, such as bank accounts. This approach promises large development gains, he argues, but early experience is mixed. Perhaps unsurprisingly, one of the most successful ways to fight poverty in a variety of contexts is to give low-income households regular cash payments. Though this may sound simple, as late as 2004, seasoned aid workers described the fear of giving money to beneficiaries as “almost pathological.” Since then, however, a “quiet revolution” has taken place against “giving aid to government bureaucrats and consultants.” Instead, programs are increasingly giving cash “directly to poor people so they can pull themselves out of the poverty trap.” One way that many countries have approached direct cash payments is through a social contract, in which families receive “conditional” cash transfers in exchange for ensuring that their children attend school and regular health check-ups. As a result, these payments not only ensure a basic level of consumption among recipients but help facilitate investment in the human capital of the next generation. Since the advent of Mexico’s first conditional cash transfer program PROGRESA (now known as Oportunidades) in 1997, social policymakers from Nicaragua to Nigeria have adopted similar models for alleviating poverty. In fact, the New America Foundation’s Global Savings and Social Protection Database--which currently focuses on Latin America, Africa, and Asia--has identified over 90 cash transfer programs in 45 countries in the developing world, with over half a billion beneficiaries. Of these programs, as the map above shows, 15 have been started, expanded or redefined in the past 3 years alone, which shows how rapidly the landscape of cash transfer social protection is evolving. As successful as these programs have been, one persistent critique has been that they foster dependency on behalf of beneficiaries because they do not enable them to save money in the medium term. Recent research by the New America Foundation’s Global Assets Project shows that breakthroughs in payment technologies, among other trends, has made addressing this critique all the easier. By linking payments to formal financial services--like bank accounts--beneficiaries can more easily store funds, be prepared for emergencies, and invest in opportunities that could lead to economic security. Cost-saving innovations like mobile telephones and biometric IDs are revolutionizing how government-to-person payments are taking place, with more and more governments, aid agencies, and multi-laterals making the switch from cash payments to electronic. To take two examples: from 2009 to 2011, Colombia invested in advanced payment infrastructure so that it could cut the number of individuals receiving cash payments from 76 percent to nine, and, on the financial institution front,  the Fijian government committed to shifting all social welfare payments from vouchers into a bank accounts to promote savings in 2010. What are the results of these trends? Electronic payment systems are clearly more convenient for beneficiaries, as they are able to access their funds at the time of their choosing and without crowds at distribution points. And although initial investments are often necessary to build out payment infrastructure for electronic transfers, governments do benefit from a subsequent decrease in administrative costs and an increase in transparency. But results are mixed in the incorporation of low-income households into the formal financial sector. The central challenge is not necessarily in teaching low-income households to save more money: from the work of Stuart Rutherford, founder of the microfinance organization SafeSave, as well as the pioneering efforts of the Gates Foundation, it’s clear that poor families do want to save, and they often do so in ingenious (and risky) ways.  Instead, the challenge is in encouraging families to make full use of financial tools. Countries such as India have seen that simply providing the poor with ‘no-frills’ bank accounts is insufficient--up to 90 percent of them remain dormant and unused. As a result, countries are now experimenting with how to raise awareness of the benefits and safety of bank accounts while at the same time incentivizing their participation. Over the past couple of years, Colombia has conducted an extensive impact study on which approach to promoting savings works best. In 2008, Colombia started making payments for its social protection program Familias en Accion through deposits in savings accounts, and it attempted to promote a culture of savings through a pilot program called Programa de Promocion de la Cultura de Ahorro (PPCA, or Culture of Savings Promotion Pilot). The impact study was incorporated into the design of the pilot, with some participants receiving financial education, others receiving a cash incentive for savings, and some receiving both. The good news was that the provision of accounts did lead some cash transfer recipients to save. What’s more, evidence suggested that the greatest savings occurred among those who received both financial literacy education and a cash incentive to save. On the other hand, early results showed little difference between different treatment groups on whether or not the recipients withdrew their entire monthly payment at once, with an overwhelming 91 percent choosing to do so. The reasons for the withdrawals varied: not knowing that accounts allowed for savings, fear of losing eligibility, distrust of bank fees, and even transportation costs. Regardless of their particular reasons, however, the beneficiaries’ collective experience showed that introducing households into the formal financial system is far from straightforward. Cash transfers have demonstrated a remarkable ability to both protect households from extreme hardship and promote long-term development. As the emphasis on helping beneficiaries graduate from poverty increases and electronic payment methods become more widespread, there is a great potential to enhance the impact of these transfers even further by linking them to savings opportunities (and eventually to other financial services such as insurance and loans). The potential of this linkage, in the eyes of many in the field, presents a “transformational opportunity” to take conditional cash transfer programs to the next level. Early experience, however, suggests that there’s a lot left to be done before we get there.
  • Monetary Policy
    Gloomy Jobs Picture Is off the Fed’s Charts
    When the Federal Reserve’s Open Markets Committee (FOMC) last met in April, the unemployment rate was on a declining path – having fallen to 8.2% in March from 9.1% the previous August.  Against this backdrop, the Committee was modestly sanguine on prospects for job growth going forward.  “The unemployment rate will decline gradually,” it predicted, “towards levels that it judges to be consistent with its dual mandate,” without need for new monetary stimulus measures. The two broken lines in the figure above show the upper and lower bounds of the “central tendency” of the Fed’s April unemployment forecasts – that is, the range of forecasts excluding the top and bottom three.  The three dotted lines show the trend of the unemployment rate if the pace of the decline in the number of unemployed people in the three months prior to March, April, and May, respectively, were to continue.  As can be seen by the May trend line at the top, the employment picture has clearly deteriorated since the FOMC met in April, and is above the most pessimistic of its “central tendency” forecasts.  This suggests that there will be significant pressure from within the Committee for further easing when it meets this Tuesday and Wednesday, June 19 and 20.  We believe this will take the form of extending “Operation Twist,” its program launched last September to push down long-term interest rates by buying long-term bonds using the proceeds of shorter-term bond sales. FOMC: April 2012 Meeting Statement Bloomberg: Fed Seen Twisting to Risk Management to Spur U.S. Growth The Economist: Shiny, New, Unopened & Unused Mallaby: The Fed and the ECB Should Be Trading Places
  • China
    Guest Post: Nigeria Hit by Domestic, Regional, and Global Headwinds
    This is a guest post by Jim Sanders, a career, now retired, West Africa watcher for various federal agencies. The views expressed below are his personal views and do not reflect those of his former employers. Last month at the World Economic Forum on Africa in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, the Africa Progress Panel’s 2012 Africa Progress Report highlighted the threat to Africa of "rising inequality and the marginalization of whole sections of societies."  Experts warned that "inequality in sub-Saharan Africa could threaten political stability and growth after a decade of rapid economic expansion.” While inequality is rising, the movement of money out of emerging markets bodes ill for Africa.  Michael Aronstein of Marketfield Asset Management told me that even though Wall Street continues to make emerging market investments (because of recent success,) the big emerging markets—Brazil, Russia, India, and China—have had a bad eighteen months, and their fundamentals are shakier than previously realized.  Their GDP levels alone do not tell the whole story, Aronstein advises. These countries are important investors in Africa.  Similarly, as Rob Arnott (chairman of Research Affiliates and manager of Pimco’s All Asset Fund) explained to Fortune magazine: "Everyone sees emerging markets as the growth engine for the world economy.  If so, why are they trading at a big discount to the parts of the world that are not the growth engine?" For Nigeria, such trends could make a bad situation worse.  A confluence of political-class infighting, (most recently, it appears, over the independence of the central bank) substantially lower oil prices, (Brent dipped below $100/bbl recently), a tragic airplane crash, which drew attention to systemic governance failures, and an ongoing insurgency in the North, portend more disorder, not less. Regional developments are also inauspicious. The real threat posed by Mali to Nigeria may not be so much one of terrorist contagion, although it is receiving much attention in the international press.  Instead, it may be that Boko Haram insurgents may draw strength from the example of the collapse of an ineffective civilian government run by entrenched political elites, disconnected from the realities faced by ordinary people, and increase their efforts.  While, on the other hand, ordinary Nigerians, particularly youth, may begin to act on their frustrations in a more organized way, a la Mali’s Collectif Action Verite and its billboard campaign. Globally, democracy is at risk.  Arguably, that of Greece has collapsed.  West Africa is not immune.
  • United States
    U.S. Entrepreneurship and Venture Capital
    In the face of persistently high unemployment, policymakers and workers look to innovation and entrepreneurship to create new jobs. This Backgrounder discusses how entrepreneurs create and finance the startups that power U.S. job growth, and the ramifications of policies such as the JOBS Act.
  • Sub-Saharan Africa
    Fuel Subsidy Haunts Nigeria — Again
    According to the Nigerian press, funding for the fuel subsidy has run out, with seven months left in the year. Further, the press quotes the executive secretary of the Major Oil Marketers Association for Nigeria (MOMAN) as saying that the government has made no payment toward the fuel subsidy in 2012. In other words, it is substantially in arrears. Apparently, oil imports have continued, with a spokesman for the Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) stating that there is enough in the country: "But the product will not be for too long and we shouldn’t wait until we have a crisis before we start looking for a solution." The danger is that imports of petroleum—upon which the country is dependent—will stop. That would lead to fuel shortages in a country in which most goods move by road. The Ministry of Finance estimated daily fuel consumption at 19 million liters daily. But, according to the press, NNPC says that actual consumption has been 33 million liters. A way out would be for the National Assembly to increase the appropriation for the fuel subsidy. But President Jonathan and Ngozi Okonjo Iweala, the Minister of Finance, have said that their goal is to eliminate the subsidy altogether because of its costs and the distortions it causes in the market. However, the National Assembly may not be happy. In January, when President Goodluck Jonathan tried to abolish the fuel subsidy, the country faced a general strike. Jonathan backed down, and restored part of the subsidy. But in the aftermath, the House of Representatives established an ad hoc committee to look into the fuel subsidy led by Farouk Lawan. It uncovered massive fraud in the operation of the subsidy, and, according to the press, it calls for the overhaul of NNPC and the Petroleum Product Pricing and Regulatory Agency (PPPRA.) The committee’s report has political traction. For example, lecturers at Ahmadu Bello University in Zaria are calling for President Jonathan to act on the report. Though Nigeria is one of the world’s larger oil producers, it is dependent on importing gasoline and other petroleum products because of a lack of refining capacity. The fuel subsidy is very popular because it is the only means by which most Nigerians benefit from the country’s petroleum. I am told that civil organizations and trade unions have contingency plans in place for strikes and demonstrations should the government seek to eliminate the fuel subsidy altogether, as it might be tempted to do in light of the current fiscal shortfall. That puts the government between a rock and a hard place, given its apparent shortage of revenue.
  • Economic Crises
    Quarterly Update: The Economic Downturn in Historical Context
    How do the recent economic collapse and recovery match up with past cycles? This chart book provides a series of answers, plotting current indicators (in red) against the average of all post–World War II recessions (in blue). To facilitate comparisons, the data are centered on the beginning of the recession (marked by "0"). The dotted lines are composites representing the mildest and the most severe experiences in past cycles. Because the most recent downturn has been compared to the Great Depression, the appendix plots the recent trend lines against the 1930s. December 2011 marked the fourth anniversary of the start of the most recent recession. It is now possible to say with certainty that this was the worst downturn of the postwar period when measured by a variety of indicators. The economy contracted more and took longer to recover. Forty-eight months after the start of the recession, unemployment was still 3.5 percentage points higher than at the start of the downturn. This chart book was designed to compare the four years immediately preceding and following the start of postwar recessions, so this will be its final update. The ongoing progress of the recovery will be tracked in the recovery chart book, which can be found here and which compares the recent recovery to prior postwar recoveries. Appendix: The Current Recession Compared to the Prewar Average and the Great Depression The economic cycle framework can be used to compare the current cycle to prewar (World War II) recessions and the Great Depression. The thick red line represents the current recession; the thin blue line, the postwar average; the thick green line, the Great Depression; and the thin gold line, the prewar average. Explore Our Other Chart Books Foreign Ownership of U.S. Assets Foreign Exchange Reserves in the BRICs Trends in U.S. Military Spending Economic Recovery
  • Financial Markets
    The Middle Class in an Age of Global Finance
    Podcast
    This was a meeting of the Roundtable Series on America's Governability Crisis.
  • Financial Markets
    The Coming Eurozone Austerity Battle
    New electoral currents in Europe are threatening the German-backed fiscal responsibility pact and sparking fresh fears of debt contagion, says CFR’s Sebastian Mallaby.
  • International Organizations
    Does Kim Signal World Bank Changes?
    Four global experts assess Dr. Jim Yong Kim’s appointment as World Bank president and whether the institution needs governance reform.
  • Fossil Fuels
    An Anti-Speculative Frenzy
    I was worried that my defense of speculation in the oil market, published this week on ForeignAffairs.com, was late to the game, but my timing turned out to be right on. Just yesterday, an op-ed appeared in the New York Times by Joseph P. Kennedy arguing that “pure” speculators should be “banned from the world’s commodity exchanges.” I am wholly sympathetic to Mr. Kennedy’s motivation—to make sure that the wealthy do not profit at the expense of those of more modest means, who are genuinely hurt by high and volatile prices for staples like heating oil, rice, and other goods. But the recipe for a better-functioning oil market that he cooks up is not the answer. I’d like to address a few of the major points that Mr. Kennedy makes in his piece. Let’s start with his conclusion: "Federal legislation should bar pure oil speculators entirely from commodity exchanges in the United States. And the United States should use its clout to get European and Asian markets to follow its lead, chasing oil speculators from the world’s commodity markets." Commodities markets need at least some what he calls “pure” speculators (meaning those who act as brokers or investors rather than actual producers or consumers of oil) in order to function. This isn’t just my opinion. Commissioner Bart Chilton of the CFTC—hardly a shill for Wall Street—hammered home in a speech last month that “Speculators are necessary liquidity providers to [commodities] markets.” In other words, “pure” speculation is an essential part of the oil market. Why is that the case? As I tried to explain in my ForeignAffairs.com piece, oil producers and consumers use financial markets to hedge their risk. But they need someone willing to assume that risk. In industry jargon, they need a counterparty to trade with. At times, oil producers and consumers are able to trade among themselves, but not always. That’s where “pure” speculators come in. For example, Chevron might contract in advance with Southwest Airlines to sell it 1,000 barrels of jet fuel for delivery in New York in 2015. But what if Southwest needs to buy a certain quantity or type of oil for future delivery and no oil producer can commit to providing it for them? That’s when a speculator, acting as a broker, can be useful. He takes the other side of the trade with Southwest for the time being. Then, when an actual oil producer decides it can deliver Southwest what it needs, the speculator sells the contract to the producer. The deal is done. If companies choose to contract with one another directly, rather than through a speculator acting as an intermediary, they are free to do so. But were such intermediaries banned from the market, as Mr. Kennedy calls for, companies that would like to minimize their risk by pre-buying or pre-selling oil would often be stymied. The amount of damage an oil producer or consumer could suffer by losing out on the ability to hedge is huge. Back to the example of Southwest Airlines—as oil prices trended upward between 1998 and 2008, the company saved more than $3.5 billion thanks to hedging in the oil market, while many of its peers that didn’t hedge suffered. Pure speculators enabled it to rack up that magnitude of savings. The op-ed also makes the following claim: "Because of speculation, today’s oil prices of about $100 a barrel have become disconnected from the costs of extraction, which average $11 a barrel worldwide." This paragraph reflects a misunderstanding about how oil prices are determined in the marketplace. The market price of oil has to do with marginal production costs, not average costs. That means that the most expensive barrel produced to meet global demand is also the one that more or less establishes a floor for prices. Right now, many experts reckon the marginal cost of production is the cost of producing oil shale and oil sands. Barclays Capital reckons that extracting oil from Canadian oil sands requires an oil price of at least $85 to be economically viable. Once you correct for that error, you realize that $100 oil is not far-fetched, especially in light of ongoing geopolitical disruptions. It continues: "Pure speculators account for as much as 40 percent of that high price, according to testimony that Rex Tillerson, the chief executive of ExxonMobil, gave to Congress last year." This claim—that Wall Street speculators account for as much as 40 percent of oil prices—is Mr. Tillerson’s estimate, but I have not seen any publicly available study to support that figure. (If I’m mistaken, I’d love to see the report--please send it to me.) Discerning analysts should bear in mind the circumstances under which Mr. Tillerson provided that estimate. Under pressure from Congress last year, oil company executives were called to Capitol Hill to explain why oil prices were so high. They were right to defend themselves. Oil companies receive far more blame in the popular media when gas prices are high than likely they deserve. Still, I have not seen any data validating the 40 percent figure he cites. Mr. Kennedy argues that the 40 percent estimate “is bolstered by a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.” That’s far from the case. The report he’s referring to is being cited frequently as evidence that speculators are running wild in the oil market, causing prices to move in whatever direction they’d like. But that’s not the study’s primary finding at all. It concludes that “On balance, the evidence does not support the claim that a sudden explosion in commodity trading tectonically shifted historical precedent” (emphasis mine). The bottom line is that “the increase in oil prices over the last decade is due mainly to the strength of global demand” and that “fundamentals continue to account for the long-run trend in oil prices.” The study suffers from some severe methodological limitations due to a lack of data, which calls into serious question its conclusions about how pure speculators affect prices (it says they were up to 15 percent of the 2004 to 2008 price run-up), but there it is. More on that study in another post. Oil prices can certainly diverge somewhat from supply-and-demand fundamentals for periods of time. That problem is exacerbated by the opaque and contradictory data about what’s happening in the global oil market, which gets in the way of the market’s efforts to determine fair value for the good. My colleague Daniel Ahn has written an excellent CFR piece describing this phenomenon and its implications for regulation. Oil speculators can and do fall prey to irrational exuberance from time to time. Ultimately, though, you’d still be far more accurate to blame supply and demand than you would Wall Street for pain at the pump right now. I applaud Mr. Kennedy’s desire for sound, proactive regulation of commodities markets. Traders operating within them should continue to be subject to reasonable rules and restraints to prevent abuse, fraud, and manipulation. Where speculators are guilty of illegal practices, they should answer to the law. The CFTC is wise to weigh policy options to improve these important markets. Unfortunately, Mr. Kennedy’s prescription for fixing them is not the right one.