Conflict Prevention

Overview North Korea poses difficult challenges for U.S. foreign policy. It possesses nuclear weapons and missiles to deliver them, and despite some progress, it is by no means clear that the ongoing six-party talks will be able to reveal the full extent of the country's nuclear activities, much less persuade Pyongyang to give them up. The United States maintains tens of thousands of forces on the Korean peninsula in support of its commitments to the Republic of Korea (South Korea), a country with which the North is still technically at war. And the peninsula sits in a strategically vital region, where the United States, China, Russia, Japan, and South Korea all have important interests at stake. All of this puts a premium on close attention to and knowledge of developments in North Korea. Unfortunately, Kim Jong-Il's government is perhaps the world's most difficult to read or even see. This Council Special Report, commissioned by CFR's Center for Preventive Action and authored by Paul B. Stares and Joel S. Wit, focuses on how to manage one of the central unknowns: the prospect of a change in North Korea's leadership. The report examines three scenarios: managed succession, in which the top post transitions smoothly; contested succession, in which government officials or factions fight for power after Kim's demise; and failed succession, in which a new government cannot cement its legitimacy, possibly leading to North Korea's collapse. The authors consider the challenges that these scenarios would pose--ranging from securing Pyongyang's nuclear arsenal to providing humanitarian assistance--and analyze the interests of the United States and others. They then provide recommendations for U.S. policy. In particular, they urge Washington to bolster its contingency planning and capabilities in cooperation with South Korea, Japan, and others, and to build a dialogue with China that could address each side's concerns. With Kim Jong-Il's health uncertain and with a new president in the United States, this report could not be more timely. And with all the issues at stake on the Korean peninsula, the subject could not be more important. Preparing for Sudden Change in North Korea is a thoughtful work that provides valuable insights for managing a scenario sure to arise in the coming months or years. Download the Japanese translation of this report [PDF]. Download the Korean translation of this report [PDF].

Overview Many of the principal foreign policy challenges facing the new administration deal with the greater Middle East and Asia. Europe, by contrast, appears relatively stable. One potential exception, however, involves Ukraine. The largest country entirely within Europe, Ukraine has tremendous economic potential. It occupies a strategically vital position as the transit point for large amounts of Russian energy going to Europe. At the same time, its links to Russia, ranging from the ethnic and linguistic ties of much of its population to the continuing presence of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet off Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula, complicate efforts to consolidate stable democratic practices and chart Ukraine’s course. Indeed, the prospect of Ukraine’s eventual membership in NATO is a source of friction in U.S.-Russia relations as well as the subject of disagreement within NATO itself. In this Council Special Report, commissioned by the Center for Preventive Action, Steven Pifer takes all these issues into account as he examines the many challenges facing Ukraine. The report comprehensively analyzes the country’s difficulties, related to both domestic conditions—for example, fractious politics and deeply divided public opinion—and foreign policy—for example, issues related to the Black Sea Fleet and Ukrainian and European dependence on Russia’s natural gas. The report then recommends ways for the United States to encourage Ukraine on a path of stability and integration with the West. It proposes measures to bolster high-level dialogue between Washington and Kiev, foster effective governance in Ukraine, and reduce Ukraine’s susceptibility to Russian pressure. On the crucial NATO question, the report urges the United States to support continued Ukrainian integration with the alliance, though it recommends waiting to back concrete steps toward membership until Kiev achieves consensus on this point. One need not agree with this judgment to find Pifer’s analysis of value. Averting Crisis in Ukraine takes a clear-eyed look at the issues that could cause instability—or worse—in Ukraine. But it also recommends practical steps that could increase the prospect that Ukraine will enjoy a prosperous, democratic, and independent future.