Conflict Prevention | Council on Foreign Relations

Nigeria

Electoral Violence in Nigeria

Overview In February 2015, the author wrote an update to this memo to reflect recent developments in Nigeria. Read the update. Elections in Nigeria scheduled for January 2011 may well be the first in the country's history featuring a genuine political contest between the predominantly Christian South and the Muslim North. Candidates could be tempted to leverage Nigerians' ethnic and religious identities for political gain, a practice that may lead to widespread electoral violence or even a military coup. This Center for Preventive Action Contingency Planning Memorandum by Ambassador John Campbell describes the events and trends that indicate Nigerian politics are following this dangerous trajectory and recommends U.S. policy options for preventing and containing violent fragmentation of Nigerian society. The memo concludes that the United States should capitalize on the value elite Nigerians place on their country's bilateral relationship with the United States to hedge against the worst outcomes the 2011 Nigerian election might produce. Read the Contingency Planning Memorandum Update, “Nigeria’s 2015 Presidential Election,” and explore CFR’s Nigeria Security Tracker and Global Conflict Tracker on the intensification of violence in Nigeria.

Contingency Planning Memorandum by John Campbell September 21, 2010 Center for Preventive Action
Lebanon

A Third Lebanon War

Overview There is growing concern of renewed war between Israel and Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant Islamist group. Since the last major Israel-Hezbollah conflict in Lebanon in the summer of 2006, Hezbollah has steadily rearmed and its arsenal is now more potent in quality and quantity. Israel could assess that the threat to its national security has grown intolerable and strike Hezbollah to degrade its military capabilities. An Israel-Hezbollah conflict could also be precipitated by Hezbollah attacking Israel, either for internal political reasons or at the behest of Iran, with which it has close ties. This Center for Preventive Action Contingency Planning Memorandum by Daniel C. Kurtzer discusses the most plausible scenarios and associated warning signs of a "Third Lebanon War," its implications for the United States, and U.S. policy options to reduce the likelihood of renewed Israel-Hezbollah conflict and mitigate the consequences should it occur. Kurtzer recommends that the United States work to avert a third Lebanon war between Israel and Hezbollah by taking measures to reassure Israel, deter Hezbollah, and pressure Syria from providing Hezbollah access to destabilizing weapons. Concurrently, the United States should heighten its preparedness to respond quickly in the event of war between Israel and Hezbollah including, potentially, a wider diplomatic initiative for regional peace.

Contingency Planning Memorandum by Daniel C. Kurtzer July 12, 2010 Center for Preventive Action
Conflict Prevention

Why Russia Didn’t Act

Russia’s inaction in response to Kyrgyzstan’s ethnic violence reflects a deeper problem with international cooperation, writes CFR’s Stephen Sestanovich.

Expert Brief by Stephen Sestanovich June 23, 2010

Kyrgyzstan

Delicate Balance for U.S. in Kyrgyzstan

The displacement of Kyrgyzstan’s Uzbeks raises problems of legitimacy for Sunday’s constitutional referendum, as well as concerns about the U.S.-leased airbase at Manas, says Kyrgyzstan expert Michele Commercio.

Interview with Michele E. Commercio and Bernard Gwertzman June 22, 2010
Elections and Voting

Nigeria in Turmoil

On Sunday, an outbreak of ethnic violence in Jos, Nigeria resulted in hundreds of civilian deaths, again drawing international attention to the increasingly unstable situation in the country. Please join John Campbell, Bennett Freeman, and Peter Lewis to discuss Nigeria’s political crisis, sectarian conflict, security conditions, and energy sector.

Event with Peter M. Lewis, Bennett Freeman and Carol J. Lancaster March 19, 2010
Elections and Voting

Nigeria in Turmoil

Watch experts report on Nigeria's presidential crisis, sectarian conflict, and security dilemmas in the oil-rich Niger Delta.

Event March 19, 2010

Sudan

Renewed Conflict in Sudan

Overview Sudan faces the prospect of renewed violence between north and south over the next twelve to eighteen months. Overwhelmingly in favor of independence, the south will either secede peacefully through a credible referendum process as agreed to in the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement or pursue this by force if the agreement should collapse. This Center for Preventive Action Contingency Planning Memorandum by Katherine Almquist presents the likely triggers of renewed civil war and discusses the U.S. policy options for preventing it from happening and mitigating its consequences in the event that it does. Almquist concludes that U.S.-led international support for self-determination should be unambiguously affirmed without prejudice toward unity, and that it must be backed by preparations to recognize and assist an independent southern Sudan.

Contingency Planning Memorandum by Katherine Almquist Knopf March 18, 2010 Center for Preventive Action
Terrorism and Counterterrorism

Terrorism and Indo-Pakistani Escalation

Overview India faces the real prospect of another major terrorist attack by Pakistan-based terrorist organizations in the near future, an event that would jeopardize important U.S. security interests in South Asia. This Center for Preventive Action Contingency Planning Memorandum by Daniel Markey examines the factors that would condition India’s response; the consequences of Indian military retaliation and Pakistani counterretaliation for the United States; and Washington’s policy options for preventing and containing the crisis. Markey concludes that a terrorist attack is unlikely to trigger a nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan. He argues that U.S. efforts to prevent an Indo-Pakistani crisis should combine a range of counterterror tactics with measures that increase Washington’s ability to limit escalation by either side.

Contingency Planning Memorandum by Daniel S. Markey January 13, 2010 Center for Preventive Action
Guinea

How to Avoid Civil War in Guinea

The worsening political crisis in Guinea will require stronger UN involvement and greater efforts on the part of African leaders to avoid what could become a civil war and a massive humanitarian crisis, says CFR’s John Campbell.

Expert Brief by John Campbell December 9, 2009 Africa Program
Conflict Prevention

Preventing the Next Crisis

Watch experts participant in a Center for Preventative Action roundtable discussion on how to prevent future crises.

Event November 24, 2009
Iran

An Israeli Strike on Iran

Overview Israel would regard any expansion of nuclear weapons capability within its region as an intolerable threat to its survival. As such, Iran's developing nuclear program has triggered serious concern in Israel and speculation that the Israeli government may choose to attack Iran's nuclear installations in an effort to delay its acquisition of nuclear weapons capability. This Center for Preventive Action Contingency Planning Memorandum by Steven Simon assesses the likelihood of an Israeli strike on Iran, the policy options available to diminish that likelihood, the implications should it take place, and measures that can be taken to mitigate the consequences should it occur. The memo concludes that Israel is not eager to start a war with Iran, or disrupt its relations with the United States, but it will act if it perceives an imminent existential threat in the form of a nuclear Iran. Thus, American arguments for restraint must be backed by concrete measures to contain the perceived threat and affirmations of the special relationship.

Contingency Planning Memorandum by Steven Simon November 3, 2009 Center for Preventive Action
Sudan

Seeking a New Path to Stability in Sudan, and Africa

Johnnie Carson, the top State department official on Africa, says new policy on Sudan stresses the need for progress on Darfur, the North-South peace agreement and anti-terror efforts.

Interview with Johnnie Carson and Stephanie Hanson October 20, 2009
Conflict Prevention

Enhancing U.S. Preventive Action

Overview Few would dispute that preventing conflict, instability, and humanitarian disaster is preferable to confronting these problems after they arise. Preventive measures are generally less expensive than remedial ones. They also allow policymakers to address potential crises before they threaten international stability, U.S. interests, and human lives. Building an effective U.S. government capacity to take preventive action, however, has proved an elusive goal. And the challenges to achieving it have perhaps never been greater. The urgent problems faced by the United States, including wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, nuclear development in Iran and North Korea, and the aftermath of a deep economic crisis, make it difficult for policymakers to focus resources and attention on potential future threats. But these same urgent challenges also make preventive action more useful. In this climate, measures that could obviate further military commitments, save money, and resolve tensions that might consume more time and resources later are a sound investment. In this Council Special Report, sponsored by the Center for Preventive Action, Paul B. Stares and Micah Zenko evaluate the U.S. system for foreseeing and heading off crises. They assess in detail current U.S. practices with regard to different types of preventive action, examining such topics as intelligence community analyses; “watchlists” of states at risk; interagency planning processes; foreign assistance programming; and the work of the State Department office created in 2004 to lead U.S. government efforts in this area. The report cites an array of shortcomings in how the government plans and conducts its preventive activities, a situation that can leave policymakers scrambling to respond to crises after they break out. To improve this, the authors recommend a variety of steps, including revising and strengthening the strategic planning process under the leadership of the National Security Council, improving and consolidating intelligence products and connecting them more closely to policymakers, and providing additional funding for preventive efforts. Enhancing U.S. Preventive Action is a comprehensive contribution to the debate on a complex topic. It offers detailed recommendations that could bolster the ability of the United States to identify and address threats before they erupt into crises. It also makes a strong case that given the military and economic constraints facing the United States today, such preventive action is not a luxury but a necessity.

Council Special Report by Paul B. Stares and Micah Zenko October 8, 2009 Center for Preventive Action
Afghanistan

Afghan Elections: A Perilous Time

Ahmed Rashid, a leading expert on Afghanistan, says the August 20 presidential election in Afghanistan is "critically important" to achieving political stability, but he worries the vote will trigger controversy.

Interview with Ahmed Rashid and Bernard Gwertzman August 17, 2009
Egypt

Political Instability in Egypt

Overview Egypt is now entering a period of political transition with the expectation that President Hosni Mubarak's almost twenty-eight-year tenure will shortly come to an end. The transition will further weaken the capacity of the Egyptian government to manage economic, social, and foreign policy challenges, thus sharpening the potential for political instability. This Center for Preventive Action Contingency Planning Memorandum by Steven A. Cook assesses the possibility of a troubled leadership succession or an Islamist push for political power, the implications for the United States, and policy steps the U.S. government might take depending on what it determines as its broader policy objectives in Egypt.

Contingency Planning Memorandum by Steven A. Cook August 1, 2009 Center for Preventive Action