Nonproliferation, Arms Control, and Disarmament

Defense and Security

The World Next Week: Egyptians Pick a President, NATO Meets in Chicago, and Baghdad Hosts Iran Talks

The World Next Week podcast is up. Bob McMahon and I discussed the presidential election in Egypt; the NATO summit in Chicago; and the P5+1’s talks with Iran in Baghdad. [audio: http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/media/editorial/2012/20120517_TWNW.mp3] The highlights: Egypt holds its presidential elections on May 23-24. If no candidate wins an outright majority, a runoff will be held June 16-17 and a president will be named no later than June 21. Amr Moussa, who served as foreign minister under Hosni Mubarak and then went on to head up the Arab League, is the front-runner among the thirteen candidates. The polls suggest, however, that he won’t win an outright majority in the first round. The two challengers with the best shot of squaring off against Moussa in the second round are Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh and Ahmed Shafiq. Aboul Fotouh is a liberal Islamist and former member of the Muslim Brotherhood who has been endorsed by conservative Islamist (or Salafist) leaders. Shafiq served briefly as prime minister in the waning days of Mubarak’s regime. The top issues in the campaign are the economy and public security, but the issue that dominated Egypt’s first-ever televised debate (which lasted four hours) was the role of Islam in government. NATO leaders descend on Chicago next week for the NATO Summit, which is being held in the United States for the first time since 1999. The summit will be centered on Afghanistan’s future after the end of the NATO military mission there in 2014. But a background issue will be the alliance’s future. New French president François Hollande campaigned on a pledge to have all French troops out of Afghanistan by the end of this year—though upon taking the oath of office this week he discovered that that might not be logistically possible—and several other NATO countries want out as well or never got in. Meanwhile, with fiscal austerity the name of the game in domestic politics, many NATO countries are cutting defense budgets rather than increasing them. Baghdad will host the P5+1 talks with Iran over Iran’s controversial nuclear program. This comes on the heels of talks in Vienna between Iranian officials and the IAEA. Tehran is under growing economic pressure to halt its enrichment activities; India recently announced that it would scale back its purchases of Iranian oil. But whether the pain is great enough for Tehran to give up its nuclear ambitions remains unknown. Bob’s Figure of the Week is 50.4 percent. My Figure of the Week is Jamie Dimon. As always, you’ll have to listen to the podcast to find out why. For more on the topics we discussed in the podcast check out: Egypt and the Elections. The Water’s Edge asks if Egyptians dislike the United States. Steven Cook writes about the “real crisis” in Egypt. IFES has an election guide for this and past Egyptian elections. Al-Jazeera has a live election blog. Christopher Santarelli of the “Blaze” thinks Egypt’s election may be “trouble for Israel.” Reuters reports that Egypt’s election committee will stop working after it received criticism from parliament. NPR has the story from when about half of the presidential candidates were banned. The NATO Summit. The summit has an official website. USA Today says that protestors are on their way to the Windy City, and Reuters says Chicago should brace itself for violence. The New York Times reports that the United States and Pakistan have a deal to “open NATO supply lines.” Human Rights Watch claims in a new report that NATO has not acknowledged multiple civilian deaths during its operation in Libya. John Kass of the Chicago Tribune tries to help NATO officials understand “Chicago-style diplomacy.” The P5+1’s Talks with Iran. Jeffrey Goldberg argues on Bloomberg that “Ehud Barak is the man to watch” during the nuclear talks. Reuters reports that Iran claims the pressures it is under might derail the planned talks. Laura Rozen attempts to read the “tea leaves” ahead of the talks. The Christian Science Monitor notes that talks in Vienna between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency ahead of the Baghdad meetings were good. The Arms Control Association has a history of official proposals by Iran in regard to its nuclear program.

Blog Post by James M. Lindsay May 17, 2012 The Water's Edge
Defense and Security

The World Next Week: Iran-IAEA Talks, G8 Summit, President Hollande, and the Cannes Film Festival

The World Next Week podcast is up. Bob McMahon and I discussed next week’s talks in Vienna between the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Iran; the Group of Eight (G8) summit at Camp David; François Hollande’s inauguration as president of France; and the Cannes Film Festival. [audio: http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/media/editorial/2012/20120510_TWNW.mp3] The highlights: Iranian and IAEA officials meet in Vienna on May 13 and 14 for a new round of talks on Iran’s nuclear program. The meeting comes ahead of Iran’s May 23 meeting with the P5+1 in Baghdad. Iran and the IAEA met earlier this year in January and February; the January talks were seen as “good,” but the February meeting was deemed a “failure” by the White House. The big issue for next week’s talks will be negotiating a visit to the Parchin military site southeast of Tehran. IAEA director general Yukiya Amano has said that there are some questionable “activities” at the site, but he has yet to receive a “positive response” from Iran about visiting Parchin. Adding tension to the dispute is the claim by the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) that satellite imagery shows activity at Parchin and that Iran may be “washing” the site before inspectors arrive. Iran has indicated its preference to use these talks as a time to “reflect” on the upcoming P5+1 meeting. The leaders of the G8 are headed toward Camp David, where President Barack Obama will be hosting the G8 Summit. Or more precisely, seven of the eight G8 heads of government will be headed to the presidential retreat on Maryland’s Catoctin Mountain. Russian president Vladimir Putin has canceled, saying he needs to remain in Moscow to finish sorting through his cabinet picks. He is sending former Russian president and current prime minister Dmitri Medvedev in his place. It’s hard not to read Putin’s decision as a slap in the face to Obama. The White House had relocated the G8 Summit from Chicago, where it would have preceded the NATO Summit Meeting, in deference to Putin’s staunch opposition to NATO’s missile defense plans. So it looks as if Putin and Obama won’t have their first presidential meeting until the G20 Summit Meeting in Los Cabos, Mexico in June. François Hollande will be sworn in on May 16 as France’s new president. His first official visit will be to Germany to meet with Chancellor Angela Merkel. While on the campaign trail Hollande repeatedly called for Europe to shift to a pro-growth policy to help renew the European economy. Chancellor Merkel, however, isn’t a fan of the “spend-more” school of economics. She is the champion of the “cut-more” school of fiscal austerity. Whether or not Hollande and Merkel can find common ground will have ramifications throughout Europe. The economic numbers in Europe’s hot-spot countries don’t look good, and the Franco-German partnership will be essential to fixing the problem. Meanwhile, elections in Greece make it much more likely that the Greeks may soon find themselves outside the eurozone looking in. Whether that happens, and how it happens, will have consequences for the broader global economy. The Beautiful People will be descending on the French Riviera for the Festival de Cannes and the pursuit of the coveted Palme D’Or. Meanwhile, Disney wonders why no one turned out for John Carter. Bob’s Figure of the Week is Richard Lugar. My Figure of the Week is 165.3 percent. As always, you’ll have to listen to the podcast to find out why. For more on the topics we discussed in the podcast check out: The IAEA and Iran Talks. The IAEA’s website has a chronology of events with Iran for this year. Al-Jazeera has a timeline of Iran’s nuclear program. Back in 2010, CFR held “A Conversation with Yukiya Amano.” Reuters reports that Iran has been complaining about “nuclear double standards,” and it notes that the hope for Middle East nuclear talks is fading away. Haaretz claims Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu is not convinced that Iran will halt its nuclear program. The G8 Summit. Time has a history of the G8.The White House has a profile on Camp David. UPI reports that food security issues will be discussed on the second day of meetings, and CNN notes that President Obama invited four African leaders to that discussion. The Hill says that First Lady Michelle Obama will host the spouses of G8 leaders during the meetings. Global hunger expert Roger Thurow will be hosting a “Twitter town hall” during the food-security section to answer any questions. Claire Godfrey of Oxfam thinks the G8 has “failed to make poverty history.” François Hollande’s Election and the Future of Europe. The Water’s Edge has an extensive Hollande profile. Timothy Garton Ash says on the Guardian that Hollande and Merkel need new methods to save the eurozone. Doug Saunders wonders in the Globe and Mail if Hollande and Merkel can find middle ground. Reuters reports that the eurozone’s new emphasis on growth could end the problem with equities. The Washington Post mentions that after the anti-austerity elections, Europe must come up with a new “grand project.” Cannes Film Festival. The festival has an official website. Benjamin Craig of the Prague Film School offers a text history of the event, and the Los Angeles Times has a visual history of Cannes. The BBC has a quick guide for all things Cannes. If you’re planning to go, Caroline Patek writes at Forbes on how to see the festival “in style.”

Blog Post by James M. Lindsay May 10, 2012 The Water's Edge
North Korea

North Korea’s Missiles, Nukes, and False Promises: How to Respond?

In his testimony before the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Scott Snyder argues that the United States should redouble its efforts to shape North Korea's strategic environment rather than try to identify the right combination of carrots and sticks to be used in a negotiation with Pyongyang.

Testimony by Scott A. Snyder April 18, 2012

Defense and Security

The World Next Week: Will the P5+1 Negotiations Succeed?

The World Next Week podcast is up. This week, Bob McMahon and I had the week off. Fortunately, Isobel Coleman and Toni Johnson graciously agreed to step in for us to preview next week’s news. They discussed the resumption of Iran and the P5+1’s nuclear talks; the Summit of the Americas in Colombia; the continuing trials of foreign NGO workers in Egypt; and World Health Day. [audio: http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/media/editorial/2012/20120405_TWNW.mp3] The highlights: The Iran and P5+1 talks were scheduled to be held in Istanbul, but Iran has asked for a last minute venue change to another city. Tehran looks to be angry at Ankara for taking a tougher stance against Iran’s ally, Syria. As for the meeting’s substantive prospects, Isobel notes that Iran believes it has a right as a sovereign country to have nuclear capabilities, and the P5+1 doesn’t want Iran to have them. This disconnect, she says, makes the prospects for a negotiation difficult. As Isobel reminds us, “we’ve been down this path before.” Brazilian president Dilma Rousseff will be coming to Washington on April 9th to meet with President Obama before the two head to the Summit of the Americas meeting where Obama and Rousseff will discuss energy and trade, areas where the two nations see room for closer collaboration. Toni sees a speed bump, though, which is that the United States and Brazil have historically had a “shallow” relationship. If the trial of American NGO workers starts up again next week in Cairo, expect heightened tensions between the United States and Egypt. Isobel was just in Cairo and heard many “heated opinions” on the subject. Perhaps even worse, the trial makes other sectors of civil society in Egypt appear more vulnerable to government intervention. This prompts Isobel to ask a distressing question: “what will the new Egypt look like” if civil society is allowed to fall by the wayside? World Health Day is marked each year on April 7, the anniversary of the founding of the World Health Organization. This year’s theme is “Aging and Health.” The day will have four foci to keep the world’s population healthy as it grows older. They are diet, exercise, and reducing alcohol and tobacco use. So there’s the secret—now go get healthy! Toni’s Figure of the Week is forty-three. Isobel’s Figure of the Week is Khairat El-Shater. As always, you’ll have to listen to the podcast to find out why. Further reading on: Iran and the P5+1 Nuclear Talks. Iran is coy about holding the talks in Turkey. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton expects to get "concrete commitments" from Iran during the negotiations. The U.S. Department of the Treasury has many resources on its continuing Iran sanctions. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his UN ambassador disagree as to whether the sanctions on Iran are working. Iraq’s foreign minister would welcome the talks changing locations to Baghdad. The Summit of the Americas and Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff’s Visit. Colombian president Juan Manuel Santos says he will be "waiting for the FARC." Because Cuba is excluded from the meeting, Ecuador will boycott the summit. Is the United States dissing Rousseff before her visit? Ray Walser thinks "democracy, human rights, and Iran" should be the main topics of the U.S.-Brazil summit. The Trial of NGO Workers in Egypt and American NGOs Around the World. The Egyptian government is looking for the NGO workers. The Washington Post editorial board thinks the Obama administration made has made some wrong moves with Egypt. The U.S. is asking Interpol to stop Egypt from arresting American NGO workers. Some foreign countries seem to hate American NGOs. The United Arab Emirates forced the National Democratic Institute, another American NGO, to close its doors in Dubai. World Health Day. What is World Health Day? The WHO provided a brief for the day entitled "Good health adds life to years: Global brief for World Health Day 2012." Pakistan is ready to celebrate, too.

Blog Post by James M. Lindsay April 5, 2012 The Water's Edge
Nonproliferation, Arms Control, and Disarmament

The Nuclear Security Summit: Five Tests of Success in Seoul

As more than fifty-three world leaders convene in Seoul, South Korea for the second global Nuclear Security Summit, North Korea has—predictably—attempted to steal the show by threatening to launch a “satellite” (aka long-range missile) next month. Pyongyang’s latest calculated provocation, though, should not be permitted to overshadow the significance and seriousness of the 2010 Nuclear Security Summit and its potential impact to bolster the global nuclear nonproliferation regime. The substantive agenda in Seoul will include high-level talks on cooperative measures to combat the threat of nuclear terrorism, protect nuclear materials and related facilities, and prevent illicit trafficking in nuclear materials. Looking beyond the Hermit Kingdom’s need for attention, the Internationalist highlights five central issues to monitor during the summit: Keeping Promises: During the first Nuclear Security Summit in 2010, delegates pledged to secure all vulnerable nuclear material by 2014. This year’s summit, at the halfway mark, provides a bellwether as to whether countries will keep their word. Independent estimates have generally been positive. Experts claim that 60 percent to 80 percent (PDF) of national commitments have been reached. While the threat of a single theft or diversion of fissile material to nonstate actors remains potentially catastrophic, such progress is important. As the range of sources for illicit nuclear materials decreases, so too does the ease with which nonstate actors can attain nuclear components and build a weapon. In Seoul, nations must fight to maintain momentum and continue to make inroads where nuclear material remains vulnerable. Securing Nuclear “Fiscal Material:” As major economies continue to recover from the global financial crisis, the Nuclear Security Summit must generate not only political will to secure nuclear material but also adequate financing to sustain global nonproliferation efforts. Current trend lines are troubling. The Obama administration has actually requested a slight decrease in funding for two important U.S. nonproliferation programs, the Second Line of Defense Initiative and the Global Threat Reduction Initiative, for the 2013 fiscal year. European Union members face similarly tough budget choices. Given fiscal austerity, summit participants must ensure that cuts to nuclear security and broader nonproliferation programs are made with an eye toward efficiency—rather than reckless budget slashing. Expanding the Agenda—and the Club: The Seoul summit will be a major multilateral gathering, with more than fifty world leaders and the heads of the United Nations, International Atomic Energy Agency, and European Union, and INTERPOL in attendance. But stemming nuclear proliferation will require collaboration beyond the formal summit agenda. China is a case in point. On the positive side, the United States and China in December 2011 jointly launched a radiation detection system in Shanghai, one of the world’s busiest ports. But China still remains outside the U.S.-sponsored Proliferation Security Initiative, a multilateral arrangement designed to interdict shipments of WMD and related technology by land, sea, or air. Washington needs to get China on board.The summit also needs to cast a wider net, to reach other vulnerable states. A major priority is to ensure universal compliance with UN Security Council Resolution 1977, which extended the mandate of the UN 1540 Committee. Created in April 2004, that body seeks to develop and enforce new rules to prevent WMD proliferation. Yet eight years later, many developing states have failed to report their progress and national-level reforms to the committee. Finally, the United States itself should ratify the International Convention for the Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism, which had only seventy-seven parties as of March 2012. Focusing on Nuclear Security, not Nuclear Safety: The expressed focus of the 2012 Nuclear Security Summit is bolstering the security of nuclear materials, to keep them out of the hands of rogue states, terrorists, and other nonstate actors. At the same time, the searing experience of last year’s meltdown of Japan’s Fukushima reactor ensures that nuclear safety—and not simply nuclear security—will be on the minds of the delegations. Some outside groups have criticized the summit hosts for their relative inattention to the safety challenges raised by civilian nuclear energy—particularly at a time of growing global interest in acquiring this capability. The danger of focusing on both challenges, however, is that neither is likely to get the attention it needs from policymakers in Seoul. The logical response might be to convene a parallel Nuclear Safety summit to address this challenge. Leverage the Summit to Engage Problematic Nuclear Powers: The United States should also take advantage of a more inclusive forum to exert pressure on nuclear powers that are reluctant to engage directly with the United States on the issue. In particular, given the fraught bilateral relationship between the United States and Pakistan, U.S. blandishments can only go so far. As I noted in my book, Weak Links, Pakistan possesses a combustible combination of dysfunctional governance, widespread corruption—including at high levels of government, and the presence of global jihadists. Given the parlous state of Pakistani-U.S. relations, multilateral fora have the highest potential to be productive. Visit our Global Governance Monitor: Nuclear Nonproliferation for a broader discussion of nuclear security, nuclear safety, and nuclear nonproliferation issues. The entire package has been updated to reflect recent shifts in international efforts to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and sensitive technology as well as increasing concerns that Iran is moving closer to developing a nuclear weapon. The updated Monitor highlights how, despite the conclusion of the New START Treaty between the United States and Russia in 2011 as well as the announcement of a U.S.-North Korean compromise agreement in February 2012, the world remains at risk for the most serious effects of unchecked nuclear proliferation.

Blog Post by Stewart M. Patrick March 26, 2012 The Internationalist
Defense and Security

The World Next Week: Arab League Meets and Obama Visits Korea

The World Next Week podcast is up. Bob McMahon and I discussed the Arab League summit in Baghdad; President Obama’s visit to the Denuclearized Military Zone (DMZ) on the Korean Peninsula as part of his visit to the Nuclear Security Summit in Seoul; the presidential election run-off in Senegal; and the Pope’s trip to Cuba. [audio: http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/media/editorial/2012/20120322_TWNW.mp3] The highlights: Baghdad is set to host the Arab League Summit for the first time in two decades. The summit is taking place against a backdrop of a series of deadly bombings across Iraq. Al Qaeda’s Iraq wing has claimed responsibility for the recent attacks saying that they were aimed at undermining the security measures for the conference. The Iraqi government has mobilized as many as a 100,000 troops to help keep the peace. The line-up at the Arab League Summit will look much different than in recent years. Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia are all under new management, and Syria won’t be there at all. Its Arab League membership has been suspended in the wake of the Assad government’s crackdown on protestors. President Obama visits South Korea this weekend to attend the second Nuclear Security Summit, which is set to run three days and bring together fifty-three heads of state, including Chinese President Hu Jintao. Before Obama sits down with Hu, however, he will visit the DMZ (Demilitarized Zone) separating North and South Korea and then hold a press conference with South Korean president Lee Myung-Bak to discuss the economic benefits of the U.S.-Korea-Free Trade Agreement, which went into effect last week. It is the largest free-trade agreement South Korea ever signed, and the largest for the United States since the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) two decades ago. Obama and Lee will also be discussing North Korea. On February 29, the Obama administration agreed to send 240,000 tons of food to North Korea in exchange for Pyongyang’s pledge to allow International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors to inspect North Korean nuclear sites and suspend nuclear tests, long-range missile launches, and uranium enrichment. But that pledge didn’t last long. Last week, North Korea announced plans to launch a rocket with a satellite on April 15 to honor the hundred-year anniversary of Kim Il-Sung’s birthday. Senegal holds a run-off presidential election on Sunday. President Abdoulaye Wade is seeking his third term in office. But here’s the rub. Wade signed a law back in 2001 that bars Senegalese presidents from serving more than two terms. Senegal’s Constitutional Court ruled back in January, however, that the law did not apply retroactively to his first term. That decision led to violent political protests across the country. Senegal held the first round of its presidential vote back on February 26. Wade picked up 35 percent of the vote, and his main challenger, former prime minister (and Wade protégé) Macky Sall, picked up 27 percent. Experts worry that if Wade wins the run-off, political violence could engulf Senegal. That could threaten Senegal’s standing as “one of the most stable and mature democracies in Africa.” Pope Benedict XVI is set to visit Cuba this week. The Vatican says that the Pope’s visit could help promote democracy in the communist country. It also says that the U.S. embargo on Cuba is “useless.” The Pope is scheduled to meet with Raul Castro, and he may also meet with the ailing Fidel Castro as well. The Pope then heads for Mexico. I expect the crowds there to be big and enthusiastic, although the polls tell me I’m wrong. But while the Pope is in the neighborhood, he won’t be stopping in the United States. He did visit New York and Washington back in 2008 on his first and only visit ever to the land of the free and the home of the brave. Voice of America notes that the Arab League summit will be a test for the war-torn city of Baghdad, and the Los Angeles Times reports on the attacks that led to forty-six deaths just a week before the summit. In South Korea, Obama is likely to talk up U.S.-Korean economic and military ties—the visit falls almost exactly two years after the sinking of a South Korean warship, the Cheonan. The Wall Street Journal previews what Obama might say on North Korea and Iran while in Seoul, and Bloomberg outlines how campaign politics are shaping his agenda in South Korea. The BBC profiles Senegalese president Abdoulaye Wade, and Azad Essa believes the presidential election proves Senegal is a functioning democracy. CFR’s Julia E. Sweig recounts the "frozen U.S.-Cuba relationship," and Reuters details the Vatican’s condemnation of the U.S. embargo on Cuba.

Blog Post by James M. Lindsay March 23, 2012 The Water's Edge

Nonproliferation, Arms Control, and Disarmament

Iran Talks: What Should Be on the Table?

Upcoming negotiations are shadowed by Iran’s increasing uranium enrichment capabilities. Four nonproliferation experts provide a path for resolving the intensifying nuclear dispute.

Expert Roundup by Jonathan Masters , David Albright, Mark Fitzpatrick, Daryl Kimball and Jonathan Pearl March 22, 2012
Defense and Security

Lessons Learned: Tokyo Sarin Gas Attack

Technological advances increasingly mean that governments are no longer the only ones capable of inflicting mass destruction.

Blog Post by James M. Lindsay March 20, 2012 The Water's Edge
South Korea

2012 Nuclear Security Summit and South Korean Nuclear Interests

The Republic of Korea (ROK) will host the second Nuclear Security Summit (NSS) in Seoul on March 26 and 27. U.S. president Barack Obama, Chinese president Hu Jintao, UN secretary-general Ban Ki-moon, and leaders of more than fifty other countries and international organizations will attend. The Seoul meeting is a follow-on to the Washington NSS meeting in April 2010, which unanimously endorsed a nonbinding communiqué to secure global stocks of highly enriched uranium (HEU) and plutonium, the critical materials used in nuclear weapons, and agreed to a work plan that detailed steps states would take to implement pledges made in the communiqué. In addition, several nations made specific, national commitments to strengthen nuclear security. The Washington summit succeeded in heightening global awareness of the dangers of nuclear terrorism and motivating a number of states to improve nuclear security by ratifying international conventions and treaties on physical protection and nuclear terrorism and by updating their national nuclear security laws, regulations, and systems. Nevertheless, a recent report by the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) concluded that many states have a long way to go in providing adequate security for their nuclear material and that many storage sites for HEU and plutonium around the world are not well secured. The 2012 Seoul NSS will be critical to motivate states to further the goals of the Washington summit. Like the other participating states, South Korea views the primary goal of this meeting as securing vulnerable nuclear materials worldwide and preventing acts of nuclear terrorism. In addition to hosting a successful summit, South Korea is pursuing several nuclear-related national interests not related directly to the summit. First, Seoul seeks to address the North Korean nuclear threat. It has characterized the summit as highlighting "the importance of maintaining stability on the Korean peninsula and the denuclearization of North Korea." However, North Korea will not attend the summit. South Korea invited the North on the condition that Pyongyang give up its nuclear ambitions—a stipulation that was predictably unacceptable to the North. Nor will the North Korean nuclear weapons program be on the summit's agenda, since most states see the Six Party Talks as a more appropriate venue for addressing the North Korean threat. Therefore, it is unlikely that the Seoul summit will make a meaningful contribution to a resolution of the North Korea nuclear issue. Second, South Korea has sought unsuccessfully to include nuclear safety as a subject of the summit. With twenty-three reactors that provide over 31 percent of its electricity needs and plans to provide 59 percent of electricity from forty reactors by 2030, nuclear power is a national priority for South Korea. But Seoul's nuclear power ambitions are meeting increasing public opposition in the wake of the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan last year, and the main opposition party has promised to scale back the ROK plans to build more nuclear power plants if it wins elections this year. The South Korean government has, therefore, sought to use the summit to restore public confidence in nuclear power. However, the Seoul summit will not focus on nuclear safety as such but address this matter only where the issues of safety and security intersect, such as securing emergency electrical supplies and control rooms. Third, the ROK would also like to make progress in negotiating a new peaceful nuclear cooperation agreement with the United States. Seoul wants the United States to grant it long-term consent to enrichment and pyroprocessing (a form of reprocessing) of U.S.-supplied nuclear materials. This permission has been granted to other countries with major nuclear programs and comprehensive nonproliferation commitments, such as Japan. By hosting the Seoul summit, the ROK hopes to advance its position by showcasing its civilian nuclear power status and nonproliferation credentials. The ROK Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade has stated, "The fact that Seoul has been selected as the host city of the second NSS is a clear demonstration of Korea's elevated international standing. It also reflects the international community's recognition of our strong adherence to the nonproliferation principle and leading role in addressing climate change and spreading green growth as the fifth-largest nuclear powerhouse in the world and an exemplar of the peaceful use of nuclear power." By hosting the summit, the ROK's standing and credentials will undoubtedly be highlighted. But the ROK will face challenges in obtaining the U.S. permission it seeks. Despite exceptions made for certain countries, U.S. policy is to discourage the spread of both enrichment and pyroprocessing technologies, since they produce directly nuclear-weapon-usable materials. Moreover, though it has already granted long-term permission to Japan, the United States is concerned about the presence of such capabilities in an area as volatile as the Korean peninsula and is trying to persuade North Korea to dismantle its sensitive nuclear facilities. In addition, some members of Congress are trying to pass legislation that would pressure U.S. nuclear cooperating partners to make a legally binding commitment to forego the acquisition of enrichment and reprocessing capabilities. The ROK and the United States are struggling to devise a way forward on this issue that would be acceptable to both countries before the current agreement expires in 2014. There is no simple solution to the differences between the United States and South Korea on this question, and the two states may find it necessary to develop an interim, step-by-step approach that postpones final agreement until the two countries complete their ten-year joint study on the feasibility of pyroprocessing technology. In any event, resolving the conflicting national interests involved in this thorny issue can occur only through tough compromises by both sides in bilateral negotiations. It is doubtful that Seoul's burnishing of its nonproliferation bona fides by hosting the summit will have a significant effect on the outcome of these talks.

Report by Fred McGoldrick March 15, 2012
North Korea

Wary Steps Forward With North Korea

North Korea’s agreement to freeze nuclear activities and allow in inspectors, while stirring hopes, echoes past deals that have failed to initiate a sustained denuclearization program, says expert Mark E. Manyin.

Interview with Mark E. Manyin and Bernard Gwertzman March 1, 2012
Elections and Voting

Iran’s Elections and Nuclear Politics

Iran’s March 2 parliamentary elections will shed light on the power struggle among conservative forces, says expert Farideh Farhi, adding that the political environment in Tehran and Washington makes nuclear negotiations unlikely.

Interview with Farideh Farhi and Bernard Gwertzman February 24, 2012
Iran

How To Talk To Tehran

Richard Haass and I have an op-ed in today’s Wall Street Journal in which we outline a strategy for U.S. diplomacy with Iran. The basics are simple: Neither war nor containment is an attractive option. Moreover, with economic and military pressure on Tehran rising, Iranian leaders may be gaining greater incentives to do a deal, and the United States may be gaining more leverage. At the same time, there’s little chance that the Iranian regime could give up enrichment entirely and survive; meanwhile, on the U.S. side, no deal is worthwhile if it leaves Iran too close to the bomb. We thus outline a mix of inspections and physical limits on the Iranian program that the United States should put on the table; if Iran accepts, the newest sanctions (including impending ones) should be dialed back. Until that happens, the current sanctions should stay in place, and the ones coming down the pike should proceed apace. Many have reacted to this proposal by arguing that the United States shouldn’t tolerate any enrichment on Iranian soil. But the most interesting response we’ve gotten so far comes from the other side: is there really any chance that Iran would accept this sort of agreement? The only honest answer is that we don’t know. The value of a U.S. offer to dial back the newest sanctions depends on how much pain they’re causing in Tehran, something that’s impossible to measure. But it’s entirely plausible that that pain in large and growing. The only way to find out if the pressure is enough to pay real dividends is to try.

Blog Post by Michael Levi February 22, 2012 Energy, Security, and Climate
Defense and Security

The World Next Week: Iran’s Nuclear Program and Syria’s Civil War

The World Next Week podcast is up. Bob McMahon and I discussed the UN inspectors visiting Iran for a second time; the "Friends of Syria" meeting in Tunis; and the convening of G20 foreign ministers in Mexico. [audio: http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/media/editorial/2012/20120216_TWNW.mp3] The highlights: The signals coming out of Iran are mixed. Tehran’s boasts about landmark nuclear advances are tempered with a willingness to let visiting International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors return and offers to re-enter negotiations. These conflicting signals have experts debating whether they reflect a conscious effort to intimidate and buy time, or are evidence that the Iranian government is at odds with itself. The upcoming "Friends of Syria" meeting in Tunis is not likely to have much impact on events on the ground in Syria, where the death toll now exceeds 7,000. Syrian president Bashar al-Assad called this week for a referendum on a new constitution, a move that protesters might have hailed had it been made last summer. Now it looks like the outcome in Syria will be decided by the bullet, not the ballot. The meeting of the G20 foreign ministers will focus on how the G20 can address issues such as green growth, sustainable development, and global responses for human development. None of these topics are ones that foreign ministries typically have much expertise in or say over. Bob’s Figure of the Week is 100. My Figure of the Week is Rick Santorum. As always, you have to listen to the podcast to find out why. Reuters tracks a meeting between IAEA chief Yukiya Amano with the Iranian embassy in Vienna, and CNN’s Fareed Zakaria compares the current conflict between Israel and Iran to the Cold War. Foreign Policy’s Colum Lynch describes France and Turkey’s push to help Syria, and Bloomberg argues that the UN Security Council vote on Syria reveals that the UN may have "more gum than teeth." CFR’s Stewart Patrick previews the G20 meeting’s priorities, and the State Department outlines what Secretary of State Hillary Clinton hopes to accomplish while in Mexico.

Blog Post by James M. Lindsay February 16, 2012 The Water's Edge
Defense and Security

The World Next Week: Federal Budgets, Foreign Threats, Xi Jinping, and Egyptian Prosecutions

The World Next Week podcast is up. Bob McMahon and I discussed the Obama administration’s FY 2013 budget; the Senate Armed Services Committee’s upcoming hearing on worldwide threats; Chinese Vice President Xi Jingping’s visit to the United States; and the one-year anniversary of Hosni Mubarak’s ouster from power. [audio: http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/media/editorial/2012/20120209_TWNW.mp3] The highlights: President Obama is scheduled to release a budget next Monday that will call for the federal government to spend $3.75 trillion in FY2013, which begins on October 1. Expect the White House’s proposal to receive the same rough treatment on Capitol Hill that last year’s got. With this being a presidential and congressional election year, everyone will find something to dislike in the Obama budget. The directors of National Intelligence and the Defense Intelligence Agency are scheduled to testify next week before the Senate Armed Services Committee on current and future worldwide threats to U.S. national security. Based on previous statements, the directors will emphasize five threats and challenges: Iran, North Korea, terrorism, cyber threats, and the rise of China. Xi Jinping, who is expected to succeed Hu Jintao as president of China, is scheduled to meet with President Obama on Valentine’s Day. The Xi-Obama meeting comes at a time when officials on both sides worry that the relationship needs shoring up. The deficit of trust between Washington and Beijing is evident on issues like Syria and the future of the South China Sea. How much progress can be made in a short meeting with a future leader who has yet to cement his authority back home and a current leader trying to extend his time in office is debatable. But if Obama wins on November 6 he will at least have had the chance to personally size up the man who will be his partner and competitor during his second term. The dispute over Egypt’s effort to prosecute nineteen Americans, including the son of a U.S. cabinet secretary, for interfering in Egyptian politics has heated up. Egypt’s premier insists that Egypt will proceed with the prosecutions even if Washington slashes its aid package. Not surprisingly, the issue has become caught up in domestic politics in both countries. So far there is no sign that cooler heads are about to prevail. Bob’s Figure of the Week is Ban Ki-moon. My Figure of the Week is two. As always, you have to listen to the podcast to find out why. The Wall Street Journal says the proposed budget plan has a "familiar ring" to it, and the Associated Press details the Republican-led House’s efforts to give President Obama line-item veto authority. Director of National Intelligence James R. Clapper’s unclassified testimony before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence is available here, and the Eurasia Group has published its "Top Risks 2012" report. The Chicago Tribune profiles Xi Jingping, and Reuters explains the "trust deficit" between the United States and China that the upcoming visit could ease. The BBC reports that there are "mixed emotions" on the anniversary of Mubarak’s ouster, and Mohamed Elmasry of the Egyptian Gazette claims that the one-year-old revolution is fragile "at best."

Blog Post by James M. Lindsay February 9, 2012 The Water's Edge
Iran

A Third Option for Iran

The extraordinary risks posed by a nuclear-armed Iran require Washington and its partners to step up activity on economic sanctions and diplomacy, even while preparing military options, says CFR President Richard N. Haass.

Interview with Richard Haass and Bernard Gwertzman February 1, 2012