Just before the second anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine last month, Jim sat down with Miriam Elder, the Edward R. Murrow press fellow, and Carla Anne Robbins, senior fellow and co-host of The World Next Week podcast at the Council. They discussed the future of the war and its consequences for Ukraine and the world.

Here are seven highlights from the conversation:

1.) Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive didn’t drastically change the fighting landscape. Ukrainian troops suffered heavy casualties during the campaign, a trend that has continued in recent months. The Ukrainian military is now running low on munitions and supplies. Carla noted Ukraine has had success fighting Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, but Russia continues to capture Ukrainian cities in the Donetsk region.

2.) President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s decision to fire Valerii Zaluzhnyi—the country’s top military commander—marked the most consequential personnel change since the start of the war. Both Zaluzhnyi and Zelenskyy received criticism for the failure of the 2023 counteroffensive to reclaim more territory. At the same time, Miriam acknowledged that “the rivalry between Zaluzhnyi, the former head of the armed forces, and Zelenskyy is very real.”

3.) Ukrainians are committed to fighting the war as it drags into its third year. Miriam argued that the “emergence of a broad Ukrainian civic identity that happened after the invasion is strong.” At the same time, Ukrainian men and women are exhausted from the heavy, costly fighting, which has killed more than 30,000 people. The fatigue that Ukrainians are feeling, however, is different than the “Ukraine fatigue” settling in around Washington.

4.) U.S. aid to Ukraine is slowing. Though the United States has sent $75 billion in humanitarian, financial, and military aid to Ukraine, the latest aid package has stalled on Capitol Hill. It’s unclear when, or even if, the package will pass. Carla argued that if Ukraine continues to lose territory, “the major blame is going to lie in Washington because if we fail to come through with that aid, they're certainly not going to be able to win.”  

5.) A negotiated end to the war is unlikely to happen anytime soon. Russian President Vladimir Putin previously expressed interest in a ceasefire, as long as Russia could claim that it won the war and keep the territory it has seized thus far. Ukraine has no interest in ceding any territory to Russia. Miriam noted, “Zelenskyy, of course, passed a decree that banned negotiating with Vladimir Putin because of the understanding that you cannot trust Vladimir Putin or his people as a negotiator.” She added that “there is broad mistrust of Russia within the Ukrainian population.”

6.) Putin isn’t going anywhere. He orchestrated the death of his main political rival Alexei Navalny last month. Miriam noted the “grim” nature of the situation in Moscow. “The Russian opposition is truly shattered,” she argued. “Major independent media outlets were forced into exile. People who remained were thrown into prison, both prominent and your average run-of-the-mill person who might post something on social media being against the war.”

7.) Breaking up NATO has long been Putin’s dream. Carla argued that Putin has had a long-standing “major obsession” with dismantling NATO, and “breaking NATO certainly is something that he'd like to do as much as gobbling up Ukraine.” Miriam agreed, and while she cautioned against assuming that a direct attack on NATO was inevitable, she said that “certainly you can't rule anything out and posturing like that is important to Putin.”

If you’d like to read more analysis of the war in Ukraine, check out this timeline of Ukraine’s fight for independence for CFR.org. Max Boot argued in an In Brief that Ukraine’s victory over Russia is dependent on U.S. aid. Noah Berman explored the impact of U.S. sanctions on Russia’s economy also in an In Brief.