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Middle East Matters

Robert Danin analyzes critical developments and U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East.

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U.S. President Donald Trump (L) and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas wait for photographers to depart before beginning their meeting at the Presidential Palace in the West Bank city of Bethlehem
U.S. President Donald Trump (L) and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas wait for photographers to depart before beginning their meeting at the Presidential Palace in the West Bank city of Bethlehem (Jonathan Ernst/Reuters).

Reading The Trump Administration in Ramallah

Does the United States seek relations with Hamas in Gaza and to undermine the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) leadership in the West Bank? Palestinians officials and insiders asked me this question repeatedly during a recent visit to Ramallah. At first, the question seems strange. How could well-informed insiders come to wonder if the United States prefers to deal with an Islamist terrorist organization to a leadership that avows non-violence and actively pursues security cooperation with Israel on a daily basis? Read More

United States
This Week: Turkey’s Dilemma and Egypt’s Beheadings
Significant Developments Turkey-Syria. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Tuesday called on the U.S.-led coalition to supply arms and training to opposition ground troops in Syria, arguing that “Kobani [was] about to fall” to ISIS. Erdogan nonetheless refused to commit Turkish ground forces. The Turkish leader’s decision to withhold ground troops, stemming primarily from a refusal to engage with affiliates of the PKK, sparked clashes between Kurdish protesters and security forces throughout Turkey. More than 19 people were killed and 36 injured in the confrontations Tuesday night and Turkish authorities imposed curfews in six provinces. Meanwhile, ISIS is poised to take the town of Kobani, where over 12,000 Kurdish civilians are currently trapped. The U.S.-led coalition has conducted 11 airstrikes against ISIS troops around Kobani this week, but Pentagon spokesperson Rear Admiral John Kirby said today that, “airstrikes alone are not ... going to save the town of Kobani.” Egypt. The Sinai-based extremist Islamist group, Ansar Beit al-Maqdis, released a video on Monday showing members of the group beheading three Egyptian nationals and shooting to death a fourth. The group accused the three Egyptians who were beheaded of collaborating with Israeli Intelligence. The Egyptian who was shot dead reportedly confessed to serving as an informant for the Egyptian military. The video also included clips of recent speeches by ISIS leaders, implying that Ansar Beit al-Maqdis may be forging closer ties with the group. Egyptian military officials yesterday claimed the army killed 16 members of the group in operations targeting the militia’s hideouts. U.S. Foreign Policy UAE-Turkey-Saudi Arabia. Vice President Joseph Biden called Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahyan of Abu Dhabi on Sunday to apologize for comments made during a foreign policy speech at Harvard last Thursday. Biden had told a questioner that the United States’ biggest issue in its fight against ISIS and Syria was “America’s allies in the region.” He further accused the UAE of “funneling” weapons to Syrian rebels, enabling them to fall into the hands of extremists. It was the second apology of the weekend for Biden, who called Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Saturday to make amends for comments made during the same speech about Turkey allowing foreign fighters to cross its borders. A senior White House official confirmed on Monday that Biden was also reaching out to apologize to Saudi Arabia. Iraq-Syria. U.S. Central Command released figures on Monday indicating that the Pentagon has spent over $1.1 billion on U.S. army and navy operations in Iraq and Syria since the middle of June. Officials speculate that daily costs have totaled between $7 and $10 million dollars since then. Costs increased noticeably once U.S. airstrikes began over Iraq in August and continued to rise when military operations were extended to Syria in September. Israel. The White House responded strongly on Monday to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s suggestion the day before on CBS’ “Face the Nation” that criticism of Israel’s settlement activity was contrary to “American values.” White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest retorted that “American values” were responsible for providing “unwavering support to Israel” and that U.S. funding for the Iron Dome had ensured the safety of Israeli citizens from Hamas rockets in the Gaza conflict this summer. President Barack Obama had warned that the building of new settlements risked “poison[ing] the atmosphere” with Palestinians and the Arab World. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Yemen. Houthi rebels rejected the nomination of Ahmed Awad bin Mubarak as new prime minister on Tuesday. The Houthis did not consider him sufficiently independent since he is a top aide of President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi. In other news, security officials in Yemen reported today the occurrence of six simultaneous attacks on security bases and government offices in the south of the capital, Sana’a. The blasts, which killed twenty-nine people, have been attributed to alleged al-Qaeda militants. Iraq. Dutch F-16 fighter planes carried out their first strikes against ISIS targets in Iraq on Tuesday in support of the U.S.-led coalition. The strikes allegedly destroyed several vehicles, and may also have succeeding in killing ISIS fighters. Meanwhile, the Canadian parliament voted to join the international coalition in airstrikes against ISIS in Iraq. Israel-ISIS. Police in Nazareth retrieved around two dozen flags bearing the ISIS logo from the city’s industrial area. Police have begun investigating potential uses and owners. Israel officially banned forging relationships with anyone affiliated with ISIS in September. Israeli police recently apprehended two ISIS supporters: a 24 year old teacher, who confessed to smuggling ISIS and jihad-related material from Jordan; and a Palestinian woman prisoner who praised ISIS to other prisoners. Israeli officials complained to the Swedish ambassador to Jerusalem on Monday to object to Sweden’s new prime minister’s decision to recognize a state of Palestine. The new center-right government, led by Prime Minister Stefan Lofven, would be the first member of the EU to recognize a Palestinian state. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the decision “counter-productive,” while officials in Washington called the announcement “premature.” Lebanon. Hezbollah claimed responsibility yesterday for planting a bomb on Lebanon’s southern border that injured two Israeli soldiers. The explosion came two days after Israeli soldiers fired at a Lebanese Army post. In retaliation, the Israeli army fired artillery close to residential areas along the border. Today the U.S. embassy in Beirut in Lebanon called on Hezbollah and the Lebanese army to support the United Nations peacekeeping efforts to maintain quiet on the ground.
United States
Voices From the UN General Assembly
International efforts to combat ISIS dominated the recent debate in New York when world leaders converged for the UN General Assembly’s sixty-ninth session. Middle East Matters has excerpted passages from regional leaders, all of whom spoke about the ISIS challenge, though in markedly different ways. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict and this summer’s fighting also featured heavily, with most speeches specifically calling for the Gaza strip to be rebuilt. Also noteworthy was what wasn’t mentioned. Niether Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi nor Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Al-Moualem said a word about Gaza. Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani chose not to name ISIS explicitly, though he implied that the Assad regime was to blame for the region’s ills. Here’s what some of them had to say:   President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Egypt On ISIS-Terrorism “The formation of a new government approved by the Parliament in the brotherly country of Iraq is a significant development that restores hope in the possibility of an improvement in the situation there, and in the success of the internal and external attempts to achieve stability, restore the areas that fell under the control ofthe terrorist organization ‘ISIS’, maintain the territorial integrity of Iraq, end the bloodshed, and realize the aspirations and hopes of the Iraqis, as well as their efforts to bring back security and stability in their country.” On Israel/Palestine/Gaza “Despite the multitude of crises threatening our region, some of which I alluded to, the Palestinian issue remains a top priority for Egypt. Palestinians still aspire to establish their independent state on the occupied territories in 1967, with East Jerusalem as its capital, on the basis of the principles upon which the peace process was established since the nineteen seventies following an Egyptian initiative. These principles are not up for negotiation, otherwise the basis of a comprehensive peace in the region would erode, and the values of justice and humanity would vanish. The continued deprivation of the Palestinian people of their rights is undoubtedly exploited by some to inflame other crises, achieve hidden goals, fragment Arab unity, and impose control on Palestinians under the guise of realizing their aspirations.” On Egypt’s internal situation “The world is starting to grasp the reality of what happened in Egypt, and to understand the circumstances that drove Egyptians to intuitively take to the streets to rebel against the forces of extremism and darkness, which once in power, undermined the foundations of the democratic process and national institutions, and sought to impose a state of polarization to break the unity ofthe people.” President Hassan Rouhani, Iran On ISIS-Terrorism “I deeply regret to say that terrorism has become globalized: "From New York to Mosul, from Damascus to Baghdad, from the Easternmost to the Westernmost parts of the world, from Al-Qaeda to Daesh". The extremists of the world have found each other and have put out the call: "extremists of the world unite". But are we united against the extremists?!” “The strategic blunders of the West in the Middle-East, Central Asia, and the Caucuses have turned these parts of the world into a haven for terrorists and extremists.” On Israel/Palestine//Gaza “Had we had greater cooperation and coordination in the Middle East, thousands of innocent Palestinians in Gaza would not have been fallen victim to Zionist regime’s aggression.” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel On ISIS-Terrorism "Last week, many of the countries represented here rightly applauded President Obama for leading the effort to confront ISIS. And yet weeks before, some of the same countries, the same countries that now support confront ISIS, opposed Israel for confronting Hamas. They evidently don’t understand that ISIS and Hamas are branches of the same poisonous tree." “So, when it comes to their ultimate goals, Hamas is ISIS and ISIS is Hamas”. “But they all share a fanatic ideology. They all seek to create ever expanding enclaves of militant Islam where there is no freedom and no tolerance- where women are treated as chattel, Christians are decimated, and minorities are subjugated, sometimes given the stark choice: convert or die.” On Israeli-Palestinian peace “Many have long assumed that an Israeli-Palestinian peace can help facilitate a broader rapprochement between Israel and the Arab World. But these days I think it may work the other way around: Namely that a broader rapprochement between Israel and the Arab world may help facilitate an Israeli-Palestinian peace. And therefore, to achieve that peace, we must look not only to Jerusalem and Ramallah, but also to Cairo, to Amman, Abu Dhabi, Riyadh and elsewhere […]” On Iran "The Nazis believed in a master race. The militant Islamists believe in a master faith. They just disagree about who among them will be the master...of the master faith. That’s what they truly disagree about. Therefore, the question before us is whether militant Islam will have the power to realize its unbridled ambitions. There is one place where that could soon happen: The Islamic State of Iran." "Imagine how much more dangerous the Islamic State, ISIS, would be if it possessed chemical weapons. Now imagine how much more dangerous the Islamic state of Iran would be if it possessed nuclear weapons." His Majesty King Abdullah II, Jordan On ISIS-Terrorism “The teachings of true Islam are clear: sectarian conflict and strife are utterly condemned. Islam prohibits violence against Christians and other communities that make up each country. Let me say once again: Arab Christians are an integral part of my region’s past, present, and future.” On Israel/Palestine/Gaza “We cannot address the future of my region without addressing its central conflict: the denial of Palestinian rights and statehood.” “A first, imperative step is to mobilise international efforts to rebuild Gaza. As we do so, we must also marshal the united, global response needed to achieve a once-and-for-all, lasting settlement.” On Refugees “The heavy flow of Syrian refugees continues. My country is sheltering nearly 1.4 million Syrians. We are now the world’s third largest host of refugees. This is placing an overwhelming burden on Jordan’s people, infrastructure and already limited resources.” President Mahmoud Abbas, Palestine On ISIS-Terrorism “Confronting the terrorism that plagues our region by groups - such as "ISIL" and others that have no basis whatsoever in the tolerant Islamic religion or with humanity and are committing brutal and heinous atrocities - requires much morethan military confrontation. […] It requires, in this context and as a priority, bringing an end to the Israeli occupation of our country, which constitutes in its practices and perpetuation, an abhorrent form of state terrorism anda breeding ground for incitement, tension and hatred.” On Israel/Palestine/Gaza "This last war against Gaza was a series of absolute war crimes carried out before the eyes and ears of the entire world, moment by moment, in a manner that makes it inconceivable that anyone today can claim that they did not realize the magnitude and horror of the crime." “We reaffirm here that the primary prerequisite for the success of all these plans and efforts is an end to the ongoing Israeli blockade that has for years suffocated the Gaza Strip and turned it into the largest prison in the world for nearly two million Palestinian citizens. At the same time, we affirm our commitment and the necessity to consolidate the cease-fire through negotiations under the auspices of Egypt.” Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani, Qatar On ISIS-Terrorism “It has been proven beyond doubt, that terrorism can only be defeated in its social environment. If societies are to stand with us in the fight against terrorism, we need to be fair with them and not push them to choose between terrorism and tyranny, or between terrorism and sectarian discrimination.” “This is what the majority of the Syrian people must be persuaded of after being soaked in blood spilled by the Syrian regime for daring to demand freedom and dignity.” On Israel/Palestine/Gaza “The damages caused by the repeated Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip over the past years, the unjust siege imposed on it, and the destruction it caused in its infrastructure, make it imperative for the international community to compel Israel to implement the resolutions of the international legitimacy, fulfill its obligations and expedite the removal of obstacles in order to lift the blocade and achieve the reconstruction process.” “The international community’s response to the aspirations of the Palestinian people to freedom and national independence is a prerequisite to confirm the justice of international legitimacy, especially since the question of Palestine is the last remaining issue on the decolonization agenda.” Minister of Foreign Affairs Walid Al-Moualem, Syria On ISIS-Terrorism “You are witnessing today what the ISIS, the most dangerous terrorist organization in the world at all in terms of funding and brutality is doing to Syrians and Iraqis of all spectra and religions. This terrorist organization is enslaving women, raping them and selling them in slave markets; it is cutting heads and limbs, and it is teaching children slaughter and murder, besides destroying historical and cultural monuments, as well as Islamic and Christian Symbols.” “Has not the moment of truth arrived for us all to admit that ISIS, Al-Nusrah Front and the rest of Al-Qaeda affiliates, will not be limited within the borders of Syria and Iraq, but will spread to every spot it can reach, starting with Europe and America?” “Let us together stop this ideology and its exporters, let us, simultaneously, exert pressure on the countries that joined the coalition led by the United States to stop their support of armed terrorist groups”. On Israel/Palestine/Gaza “Syria confirms, also, that the Palestinian issue is the central issue of the Syrian people, which supports the inalienable and legitimate rights of the brotherly Palestinian people, particularly, the right to return and self-determination, and to establish its independent state on its land, with Jerusalem as its capital.” On the internal political situation in Syria “Now, after the presidential elections, we would like to tell everyone that who wants and looks forward to a political solution in Syria that they must firstly respect the Syrian people’s will, which was manifested explicitly, clearly, strongly and most loudly. They chose their President, for the first time in Syria’s modern history, in multi-party elections, with international monitors from several countries that witnessed the integrity, transparency and the enthusiasm of the people to participate in these elections.” Minister of Foreign Affairs Sheikh Abdullah Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, United Arab Emirates On ISIS-Terrorism “With the increased incidence of terrorism and extremism in our region, most notably perpetrated by ISIS, the international community must be aware that the threats posed by these terrorist and extremist groups are expanding beyond our region to threaten the rest of the civilized world.” On Israel/Palestine/Gaza “The UAE strongly condemns Israel’s aggression against Gaza, especially the destruction inflicted upon its population and civilian facilities, including the United Nations’ facilities, and we demand a thorough, transparent and independent investigation be conducted, in order to determine the legal responsibility for these damages.” On Egypt “This hope is driven by the remarkable progress achieved by the new government in Egypt and its good governance in implementing its political roadmap. Despite the challenges facing Egypt, the signs of normalcy in public life and the revived economy and culture are promising.” “Therefore, the UAE regrets the statements of some countries and their unacceptable questioning of the legitimacy of the Egyptian government. The present Egyptian government was freely elected by its people, who believe in their ability to fulfill their aspirations. Questioning the Egyptian people’s will and their right to choose their representatives is an interference in the internal affairs of Egypt and undermines its stability. Accordingly, I would like to emphasize that the stability of our region depends on the stability of Egypt.”  
United States
This Week: ISIS struck in Syria and Iraq as the Middle East takes center stage at the UN
Significant Developments Syria. The United States conducted its first ever military strikes against ISIS in Syria this week, targeting primarily oil refineries and infrastructure used for command and control in Raqqa. U. S. military and intelligence officials said on Tuesday that the airstrikes had also targeted an al-Qaeda affiliate called Khorasan. The group had reportedly been organizing an “imminent” attack from Syria against the United States or Europe. According to press reports, U.S. ambassador to the UN Samantha Power informed her Syrian counterpart in advance of the airstrikes in Syria. Iraq’s new Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi claimed U.S. officials passed a message to the Assad government via Baghdad that the United States was not targeting his regime. A Syrian diplomat was quoted yesterday in a pro-regime newspaper saying, “the U.S. military leadership is now fighting in the same trenches with the Syrian generals.” Iraq. Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi expressed tentative support for U.S. airstrikes in Syria after being reassured that ISIS is the target. Abadi noted that, “as a neighbor, I don’t want to be party to the disintegration of Syria or to have diminished sovereignty of Syria.” France conducted its first airstrikes in Iraq as part of the U.S.-led coalition against ISIS on Monday. In retaliation to France’s attacks, a militant group affiliated with ISIS, Jund al-Khilafa, kidnapped and beheaded French national Hervé Gourdel in Algeria. President Francois Hollande declared at the United Nations that France will continue to provide military support to the coalition against ISIS. Meanwhile, the British parliament voted today to approve the United Kingdom’s participation in U.S.-led airstrikes against ISIS in Iraq. Iran. President Hassan Rouhani blamed the West and Arab regimes for creating ISIS at the UN General Assembly yesterday. Rouhani also suggested that Iran would not cooperate in U.S.-led efforts to combat ISIS until a deal is reached on Iran’s nuclear program. British Prime Minister David Cameron and Rouhani met in New York on Wednesday morning in the first summit meeting of the two countries since the Iranian Revolution in 1979. Meanwhile, a P5+1 meeting with Iranian officials scheduled for today in New York was cancelled at the last minute. French Foreign Minister Fabius told reporters, “We were due to have a meeting this morning of the P5+1 on one side and the Iranians on the other but because of a lack of progress, this meeting (had) to be called off.” U.S. Foreign Policy ISIS. President Barack Obama, speaking before the United Nations General Assembly on Wednesday, focused primarily on the threat posed by ISIS and Islamist radicals. Obama reaffirmed the need to establish a strong coalition against ISIS stating that “the United States of America will work with a broad coalition to dismantle this network of death, [as] the only language understood by killers like this [ISIS] is the language of force.” Later that day, Obama led a session of the United Nations Security Council which unanimously passed a resolution to calling upon states to adopt legislation to stop their citizens from travelling to join terrorist groups and from providing financial aid to them. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Arab Bank. On Monday, a federal jury in Brooklyn found the Amman-based Arab Bank, the largest financial institution in Jordan, liable for facilitating twenty-four terrorist attacks by Hamas between 2001 and 2004. It was the first jury verdict of a U.S. anti-terrorism statute passed in 1990. The lawyers of the plaintiffs, family members of victims of Hamas’ attacks, argued that the Arab Bank knowingly handled transfers and payments for members of the terrorist organization. The decision is being watched closely by banks throughout the Middle East. Turkey. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan suggested on Tuesday that the forty-nine hostages who were captured in Iraq and held for over three months by ISIS were released as a result of the Turkish government agreeing to a non-monetary deal with the group. Speaking at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, Erdogan refuted claims that a ransom was paid, but did not explicitly deny the possibility of a prisoner swap with ISIS, stating that “such a thing is possible.” Meanwhile, over 140,000 Syrian Kurds have sought refuge in Turkey since the ISIS attack on Kurdish town of Ayn al-Arab late last week. Turkey is currently hosting an estimated 1.6 million Syrian refugees. The United Nations has further warned that the numbers of Syrian Kurdish refugees could exceed 400,000 in the near future. Palestine. President Mahmoud Abbas, accusing Israel of conducting a “war of genocide” in Gaza, refrained from saying he will pursue war crimes against the Jewish state at the International Criminal Court. Abbas also said he would seek a UN resolution setting a deadline for Israel’s withdrawal from territories it captured in 1967, though he did not include a three-year target as other Palestinian officials said he would. Meanwhile, Hamas and Fatah officials reportedly made progress in talks yesterday about implementing the national reconciliation agreement that was first agreed upon last April. Moussa Abu Marzouk, a senior Hamas official, declared that the national unity government, which was sworn in on June 2, would take over government institutions and border crossings in Gaza. However, PLO officials cautioned that Thursday’s progress lacked substance and many of the areas of dispute, including payment of public employees in Gaza, have yet to be resolved. Yemen. Houthi rebels and the Yemeni transitional government agreed Sunday night to an immediately effective ceasefire and to form a new “technocratic national government” following the rebels’ successful assault on Sana’a. On Wednesday, the Yemeni state oil company announced a cut in fuel prices, which was one of the key demands of Houthi rebels, while Yemeni authorities freed two Hezbollah members with ties to the Houthis on Wednesday. Houthi fighters have thus far ignored the part of Sunday’s peace deal that called for them to withdraw from Sana’a. EU. Belgian authorities tightened security around the European Commission buildings on Monday following reports of a planned terrorist attack related to ISIS. Belgian authorities also confirmed that they had detained a couple on their return to Brussels from Syria under the country’s anti-terrorism laws. They were suspected of plotting an attack on the Commission buildings. Israel-Palestine. Two suspects in the June killing of the three Yeshiva students, which sparked the latest round of fighting in Gaza, were shot dead by the Israeli military on Tuesday. According to IDF spokesperson Lt. Col. Peter Lerner, the suspects were shot by the IDF after they “came out shooting” from the building they had been hiding in for a week. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu informed his cabinet on Tuesday that “there [has been] accounting of justice” despite the ongoing suffering of the boys’ parents. Conversely, several Palestinians have denounced the killing as extrajudicial. Hamas, who had previously confirmed the suspects were affiliated with the group, praised them as heroes and led a large-scale funeral procession in their honor. Israel-Syria. The Israeli military shot down a Syrian fighter plane on Tuesday when it crossed into Israeli-controlled air space over the Golan Heights. A spokesperson for the Israeli Air Force said that the pilots had ejected from the aircraft safely into Syrian controlled territory. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed the downing of the aircraft, expressing security concerns over the potential for Islamist militants to strike Israel.
  • United States
    This Week: Mobilizing to Counter ISIS
    Significant Developments Syria. French President Francois Hollande announced today that France would provide military support, including airstrikes, against ISIS in Iraq. On Monday, Australia, Germany, and the United Kingdom pledged support for the fight against ISIS following the conclusion of the Paris conference. Wrapping up his tour of the Middle East to recruit Arab support, Secretary of State John Kerry received assurances of good intentions from Egypt and Iraq, while Saudi Arabia pledged to provide the training of Syrian rebel forces at its bases. Less clear was what, if any, would be their military contributions. Germany is set to host a conference for Iraq and Syria in Berlin on October 28 to discuss security concerns in the region. Meanwhile, the United States carried out its first airstrikes in support of the Iraqi army on Monday, destroying six ISIS vehicles and a combat post. With the support of U.S. aircraft, Kurdish peshmerga forces recaptured seven Christian villages west of Irbil this week. Since President Barack Obama’s address to the nation last week pledging U.S. airstrikes again ISIS, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights has reported that 162 new recruits have joined ISIS training camps in Aleppo. On Tuesday, ISIS released a new propaganda video entitled “Flames of War,” showing wounded American soldiers and ending with “the fighting has just begun.” An unidentified surveillance drone, the first of its kind, was seen over Aleppo today, where ISIS militants reportedly began evacuating in anticipation of a U.S. airstrike. Meanwhile, ISIS seized twenty-one Kurdish villages in northern Syria close to the Turkish border, spurring the Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK) to call on Turkish Kurds to come to the aid of the Syrian Kurdish population. Saudi Arabia.Saudi Arabia’s state appointed Council of Senior Scholars, led by Grand Mufti Sheikh Abdul Aziz Al al-Sheikh, declared terrorism a “heinous crime” yesterday. The Council, the sole body in Saudi Arabia empowered to issue fatwas (Islamic legal opinions), called for adherents to be publicly executed as a deterrent to future recruits and banned militant financing. The move follows previous public statements by the Saudi grand mufti in recent weeks in which he labelled al-Qaeda and ISIS militants “Islam’s foremost enemy.” U.S. Foreign Policy ISIS. President Barack Obama insisted yesterday, in a speech at MacDill Air Force Base, that the United States would not send troops to fight “another ground war in Iraq.” His assurances came a day after U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Martin Dempsey told the Senate Armed Services Committee that he could foresee the possibility of U.S. ground troops in Iraq. Aides subsequently said that Dempsey was merely “describing contingency plans” as part of his role as military advisor to the president. The U.S. House of Representatives yesterday authorized President Barack Obama to train and arm Syrian rebels as part of the U.S. led effort to defeat ISIS. The president, vice president and high-raking White House officials personally lobbied for the bill to be passed. The authorization, which was attached as an amendment to a bill to keep the government funded until December 11, was approved with a vote of 273 to 156. This will guarantee that the issue will be revisited in the near future when the routine funding legislation expires. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Qatar. Senior Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood leader Amr Darrag said that Qatar last Saturday asked several influential members of the Islamist group to leave the Gulf country last Saturday. The Qatari request suggests that Doha, a traditional Brotherhood ally, may be seeking to ease tensions with neighboring Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, both of which view the Brotherhood as a threat to their regimes. Turkey. Turkey’s military has reportedly initiated logistical planning for a buffer zone to be imposed on its southern border as protection against spillovers from the Syria and Iraqi conflicts. Turkish plans include possibly implementing a no-fly zone and providing humanitarian assistance to civilian refugees. The move follows reports last week that Turkey has ruled out participating in the U.S.-led coalition against ISIS. Meanwhile, President Tayyep Recep Erdogan hinted on Monday that members of the Muslim Brotherhood recently exiled from Qatar could be granted asylum in Turkey. Libya. Libya’s internationally recognized parliament rejected acting Prime Minister Abdullah al-Thinni’s proposed cabinet today amidst the country’s escalating security crisis. Members of Parliament had requested a streamlined ten person “crisis” cabinet, but al-Thinni submitted eighteen nominations. Both the parliament and al-Thinni are currently based in the eastern town of Tobruk, essentially in domestic exile after Islamists seized Tripoli and set up a rival government there. Al-Thinni has accused Qatar of contributing to the instability; on Monday, he claimed that Qatar sent three planes loaded with weapons to the opposition-controlled capital. Meanwhile, Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Garcia-Margallo warned yesterday that Libya could devolve into a civil war and become another Syria at an international conference on Libya. Sixteen foreign ministers attended the conference along with representatives from the UN and the Arab League. Egypt. In an unusual ruling, an Egyptian court released Alaa Abd El Fattah , a prominent political activist and blogger from prison on bail last Monday. Abd al Fattah has been imprisoned under four different administrations in Egypt, from President Mubarak to President Sisi. Abd El Fattah, who was released due to procedural irregularities during his earlier trial, still faces retrial in another court. Gaza. Palestinian Prime Minister Rami Hamdallah announced today that Saudi Arabia has pledged $500 million to help rebuild Gaza. Reconstruction in the coastal strip is estimated to cost $4 billion and take up to three years. Meanwhile, an agreement was brokered by the UN between the Israelis and Palestinians on Tuesday to allow up to 800 truckloads of construction supplies to enter Gaza daily. This figure is four times the amount currently in transit. The materials will enable the reconstruction of the eighteen thousand homes destroyed or severely damaged during Operation Protective Edge this summer. The UN agreed to track the progress of the goods from purchase to arrival in Gaza in order to address Israeli concerns that the materials may be diverted by Hamas to build more tunnels. Golan Heights. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon announced this week the withdrawal of UNDOF (UN Disengagement Observer Force) troops from their bases in the Golan Heights. The peacekeepers were moved to the Israeli-controlled side of the buffer zone after unidentified Syrian fighters moved too close to their former base. The move comes after forty-five Fijian members of the peacekeeping force were captured by the Al-Nusra Front over two weeks ago. Those forces were released earlier this week. Yemen. Houthi fighters pushed into a suburb of Yemen’s capital today in an escalation of weeks of fighting. Over forty people have been killed in the past two days of clashes between the Shiite rebel group and the Yemeni security forces. Houthi protestors in Sana’a have been calling for the resignation of the government and the reinstatement of fuel subsidies for weeks.  
  • United States
    Understanding ISIS’s Apocalyptic Appeal
    By Ella Lipin President Barack Obama’s expected announcement today of a long-term military campaign against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) follows an unusually grizzly few months of territorial conquest and seemingly barbaric behavior. To the outside world, this period of atrocities perpetrated by ISIS, such as the beheading of two American journalists, may be another defining moment in shaping the Middle East. But for many people in the region, ISIS’s message resounds and its arrival marks the end of days and the fulfillment of divine prophecy. To understand ISIS’s appeal and ultimately how to defeat it, the United States must recognize how the organization situates itself within Islamic apocalyptic tradition. In July, ISIS released the first two issues of Dabiq, its digital magazine, revealingly named after a Syrian town believed to be the site of the future climactic battle, to be fought between Muslims and Romans, that will lead to Judgment Day. The use of Dabiq draws from hadith, revered accounts of the Prophet Muhammad’s sayings or practices. The relevant passage states that the end of days won’t come until the battle at Dabiq. After the battle, the triumphant Muslims will go on to conquer the Western world (symbolized by Constantinople). ISIS reprinted this hadith in full in the first issue of its new publication. Herein lies ISIS’s propaganda strategy: employ Islamic apocalyptic tradition – with the West as the modern day Romans – to mobilize followers. Both the organization and its new recruits understand this script, made all the more relevant and compelling by the recent debate about U.S. airstrikes in Syria. Other militant jihadists have used this approach before. A decade ago, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the founder of al-Qaeda in Iraq – the Islamic State’s predecessor – invoked the same tradition: “The spark has been lit here in Iraq, and its heat will continue to intensify – by Allah’s permission – until it burns the crusader armies in Dabiq.” This quotation was recently used to adorn the opening pages of ISIS’s glossy new magazine. This prophetic rhetoric, coupled with ISIS’s claim to establish the first Caliphate since the Ottoman Empire, aims to place the organization as the sole legitimate representative of Muslims and the inevitable enemy of the Western world. It can be a powerful message, one that has already helped bolster ISIS’s popular support. This interpretation of events is not limited to Sunni extremists; a large number of Muslims believe these events may be imminent. A 2011-2012 Pew survey found that a high percentage of Muslims in the Middle East believe they would witness events leading to the Day of Judgment. In Iraq, where ISIS has recently expanded, 72 percent of respondents expect to experience the coming of the Mahdi, a messianic redeemer who will restore the political and religious purity of Islam. While the figures were lower in other Muslim countries—Tunisia (67 percent), Lebanon (56 percent), Morocco (51 percent), the Palestinian Territories (46 percent), Jordan (41 percent), and Egypt (40 percent)—the apocalyptic tradition clearly resonates deeply throughout the region. By exploiting the battle of Dabiq, ISIS hopes to recruit disaffected admirers among the many who believe that the end of days is fast approaching. According to the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, ISIS managed to recruit 6,000 new fighters, including 1,000 foreigners, in the month of July alone. However, just because large numbers of Muslims hold a belief that the end of times is imminent does not mean they sympathize with ISIS’s radical and militant agenda. Nor does it mean that ISIS can successfully build a wider following by tapping into a commonplace apocalyptic tradition. The United States must do what it can to keep it that way. Airstrikes may be an important tool in addressing the immediate security crisis created by ISIS’s gains in territory and popularity, but force cannot stand alone. The United States needs a comprehensive, long-term strategy to answer this prophetic narrative and prevent ISIS from broadening its allure. The first step towards crafting such a response requires an understanding by the United States and its allies of ISIS’s theological appeal. Ella Lipin is a research associate for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.