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Latin America’s Moment

Latin America’s Moment analyzes economic, political, and social issues and trends throughout the Western Hemisphere.

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An illegal gold mining camp is discovered in Madre de Díos during a Peruvian military operation in 2019.
An illegal gold mining camp is discovered in Madre de Díos during a Peruvian military operation in 2019. Guadalupe Pardo/Reuters

Illegal Gold Finances Latin America’s Dictators & Cartels. The United States Must Lead the Fight Against It.

Four policy ideas to curb illegal gold mining in the Western Hemisphere.

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Guatemala
Glimpses of Optimism in Guatemala
The news and statistics from Guatemala are anything but reassuring. More than half the nation’s sixteen million citizens live in poverty. Worse, almost one in two children under five suffer from chronic malnutrition, which affects not just their immediate well-being but also limits their physical and intellectual potential for the rest of their lives. Violence is rampant. Guatemala City ranks among the most dangerous cities in the world and the national homicide rate, of 40 murders per 100,000 inhabitants, is bested by just four countries worldwide. Women especially are vulnerable, not just on the street but inside their homes, as domestic violence and femicide rates are also among the worst in the world. Few receive justice, with prosecution rates averaging just 2 percent of all crimes. Federal actions to take on these challenges have been largely absent or ineffective. And small islands of progress, such as the International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG), a UN-backed independent body that has prosecuted several serious criminal cases, have been undermined. Even if the political will existed, with tax collection at just 11 percent of GDP—the lowest in Latin America—the government lacks the resources to do much. Despite the dire national outlook, after a recent trip I left with some glimpses of optimism—mainly from both local and private sector efforts to break the vicious cycles of poverty and negative dynamics more generally. These organizations and business are changing the lives of at least some individuals, families, and communities. Trying to take on the debilitating effects of malnutrition is Asociación Puente. The non-profit works directly with pregnant women and young mothers to help ensure better food and nutrition at the vital early stages of life. They also help women start micro-enterprises, to generate the basic income needed to continue putting (nutritious) food on the table.  Founded by former Guatemalan first lady Wendy de Berger and Edna Lima de Morales, the organization has reached over 2,000 families so far. Another is Sheva.com. Started by Marisabel Ruiz, it works to remove at least one of the barriers to girls’ education—puberty. In so many villages Guatemala girls can’t afford sanitary pads. Once they start to menstruate, they miss one out of every four weeks of school, falling permanently behind their classmates and their potential. For each purchase at their U.S. based company, they donate products to girls in need, helping them stay in school. Also in the social entrepreneurship mode is Wakami, an organization started by Maria Pacheco. Originally visiting poor rural communities as a trained biologist, village women kept telling Pacheco what they needed most was jobs. And so Wakami began, harnessing the weaving skills so many women already had but differentiating their products through more modern designs (as opposed to the beautiful but endlessly repeated weavings sold in Guatemala’s local markets). Today, the for-profit business employs nearly five hundred artisans by selling its jewelry in twenty-four countries—including a collaboration with Ann Taylor Loft in the United States. On technology’s cutting edge is MILKnCOOKIES, an interactive communications agency founded by Karla Ruiz Cofiño. Working with clients worldwide to design and build websites, apps and social media strategies, the company leaps up the skill ladder. Competing with technology and app developers globally, it provides not only high paying jobs for those already skilled but also training, presenting at least a handful of fellow citizens a profitable alternative to migration. Each shared what their organizations have found matters to make a difference. One is focusing on women. Studies worldwide show that money given or earned by women is more likely to be spent on children’s food, health, and education. These organizations find similar patterns in their towns, with kids eating better, staying in school longer, and dreaming of a different future than that of their parents when their mothers’ income rises. Another lesson is incorporating men. By providing training and opportunities to everyone in a village, resistance to women’s financial gains lessen. In a society that often restricts a woman and wife’s physical realm to the home, Asociación Puente found that offering workshops and classes to the whole town literally opened the door for women’s involvement. And in a telling discussion with Matilde Garcia, a founder of one of Wakami’s workshops, she related how she employs her husband as her accountant to gain his buy in, though she was quick to share that she is the one that controls the business’ bank accounts. These efforts do help—mattering greatly to those involved by changing individual, family, and community lives. The question remains though can countries such as Guatemala scale these and dozens of other small businesses, non-profits, and non-governmental organizations to change the direction of the nation. Visiting and talking with these women makes you believe that it might in fact be possible.
United States
Interview With Charlie Rose
Last month, I had the pleasure of joining Charlie Rose on his show along with Jorge Castañeda, Mexico’s former foreign minister, and Francisco Goldman, contributor to The New Yorker, to discuss Mexican President Peña Nieto’s meeting with President Obama last month and US-Mexico relations more broadly. Recently aired, you can watch the interview here.
Americas
The Strategic Importance of North America to U.S. Interests
Yesterday, I had the privilege to testify before the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere at a hearing titled “The Strategic Importance of the Western Hemisphere: Defining U.S. Interests in the Region.” Also joining me before the subcommittee were Bonnie Glick, senior vice president at Meridian International Center, Evan Ellis, research professor at the U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute, and Eric Farnsworth, vice president of Council of the Americas. Below is an excerpt of my written testimony in which I discussed the strategic importance of North America to U.S. interests and why “Made in North America” should be a foundation for U.S. policy: North America today is a global economic powerhouse, home to almost five hundred million people living in three vibrant democracies. Together the three nations account for over 26 percent of global GDP. Totaling roughly $20 trillion, their combined economies outpace the European Union in economic production. And though the United States makes up the majority of the economic weight (in terms of GDP and as the home to almost a third of the world’s largest companies), both Canada and Mexico rank among the top fifteen largest global economies. North America is also one of the most economically dynamic regions of the world today—the World Bank predicts the region will outperform average global GDP growth in 2015. Because of geography, markets, and the choices of millions of individuals and thousands of companies, North America has become one of the most integrated and interdependent regions in the world. Sharing 7,500 miles of peaceful borders, Canada and Mexico now play vital roles in the United States’ stability, security, and prosperity. It is time to build on past work and advance this partnership to a new stage. If the three North American countries deepen their integration and cooperation, they have the potential to improve the standards of living of their citizens and to shape world affairs for generations to come. Several recent developments make a North American vision particularly attractive. These include advantageous demographics, a shared skilled labor force, and recent economic reforms in Mexico. Today, I want to focus on two particular areas of opportunity: energy and economic competitiveness. You can read the rest of my written testimony here on CFR.org. You can read the written testimonies of my fellow witnesses here on the House Foreign Affairs Committee website
  • United States
    United States and Mexico Finally Resolve Cross-Border Trucking Issue
    For the twenty years since the start of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the United States failed to fulfill its treaty obligations to open its roads and permit safe cross-border services. As part of the original agreement, Mexican trucks were supposed to be able to operate in four U.S. states—Texas, California, New Mexico, and Arizona—by December 1995, and then throughout the continental United States by January 1, 2000. Almost fifteen years later, the vast majority of Mexican trucks are still not allowed on U.S. roads. Mexico retaliated in kind, blocking the movement of U.S. trucks within its borders. In 2009, Mexico also applied retaliatory tariffs on a yearly rotating basis to a variety of U.S. imports, permitted by a favorable 2001 NAFTA dispute settlement panel ruling. To try and comply with the treaty’s obligations while also addressing domestic concerns over road safety, the U.S. government developed a series of pilot programs. President George W. Bush launched the first in 2007, enabling a total of twenty-five Mexican carriers to operate roughly one hundred trucks within the continental United States. These pioneers crossed the border twelve-thousand times in the year-long pilot program (for comparison, some fourteen-thousand thousand trucks cross the U.S. southern border alone each day). Although the program was terminated early (precipitating the retaliatory Mexican tariffs), the U.S. Department of Transportation’s evaluation of the program concluded that the Mexican carriers had better safety records than U.S. carriers. The most recent pilot program began in 2011 and finished this past October. Thirteen Mexican carriers with fifty-five registered trucks crossed the border some twenty-five thousand times during the three year trial period. A joint evaluation by the U.S. Department of Transportation and the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration found that Mexican trucks “had safety records equal to or better than the national average for U.S. and Canadian carriers operating in the United States.” Based on these findings, the U.S. Department of Transportation just announced that the pilot program trucks can continue to traverse U.S. roads, and that all Mexican carriers will soon be able to apply to operate in the United States. U.S. Department of Transportation, "North American TransBorder Freight Data: Indexed Data," 2014. This change benefits the United States (and Mexico) in many ways. First, it will end the $2 billion in retaliatory tariffs against U.S. goods sent to Mexico—second in importance only to Canada for U.S. exporters. When fully operational, it will also reduce costs in terms of money, time, fuel, and pollution for thousands of U.S. companies. Approximately two-thirds of U.S. annual trade with Mexico—roughly $335 billion a year—goes by road. More broadly, it is a small but important step toward recognizing the importance of North America for America’s future. Facilitating trade will strengthen the economic production platform that increasingly undergirds U.S. competitiveness and economic growth.
  • Mexico
    Elections to Watch in 2015
    The region will hold just two presidential elections this year, choosing new leaders in Guatemala and Argentina. More prevalent will be congressional and local elections. Midterms in Mexico, Venezuela, and Colombia in particular may prove bellwethers for the direction of these three important regional economies. With term limits barring Otto Pérez Molina from running again, Guatemalans will head to the polls in September. The current front-runner is Manuel Baldizón of the Libertad Democrática Renovada (LIDER), returning to the electoral ring to try and avenge his second round defeat by Pérez Molina in 2011. The president’s Partido Patriota (PP) has thrown its support behind former Minister of Communications, Infrastructure, and Housing Alejandro Sinibaldi. Sandra Torres of the Unidad Nacional de la Esperanza (UNE), who divorced former President Álvaro Colom to be constitutionally eligible to run for office, also has significant name recognition and possibilities. Early polls suggest that none of the candidates has the 50 percent needed to avoid a second round. More closely watched, at least from the global financial world hoping to resolve the current debt impasse, will be Argentina’s October presidential elections. President Cristina Kirchner has yet to throw her weight behind any of the precandidates, though most expect her to (grudgingly) endorse Daniel Scioli, current governor of the province of Buenos Aires, who comes from her Frente Peronista para la Victoria (FPV) and is the front-runner in most polls. Other favorites include Sergio Massa, a Kirchner defector and current federal legislator attracting dissident peronist and opposition support behind his candidacy and party, the Frente Renovador. Mauricio Macri represents the one non-peronist in the leading bunch, leveraging his track record as a well-known businessman, former president of the storied Boca Juniors soccer team, and now mayor of Buenos Aires. To win in the first round Scioli would need to convince 45 percent of voters to stick with the FPV (or 40 percent and a 10 percent advantage over the second-place finisher), otherwise he will face a November run-off. Among midterm elections, Mexico’s president Enrique Peña Nieto and his Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) may face significant challenges come July, when the entire lower house, nine governorships, and control of Mexico City’s delegations are up for grabs. The lack of immediate benefits from the recent spate of economic reforms combined with an evolving and deepening political crisis due to several instances of state associated violence and corruption make the PRI vulnerable. The question is whether the fractured PAN and PRD opposition can overcome their own problems to take advantage of their governing rival’s weakness. Colombia will hold regional elections in October that, among other positions, will determine the next mayor of Bogotá—the second most powerful elected office in the country. With well-known leftist Gustavo Petro stepping down, candidates from across the political spectrum have jumped into the race. In polls, the leftist Polo Democrático Alternativo (PDA) leads with Clara López. President Santos’ coalition, the Unidad Nacional, will likely endorse Rafael Pardo of Partido Liberal Colombiano (PLC), while former president Álvaro Uribe is already pushing Francisco Santos of the Centro Democrático (CD). Finally, Venezuelans are scheduled to head to the polls in December to renew all 165 members of its National Assembly. In the face of falling public support—with just 25 percent approving of Maduro’s performance—rising inflation, food and basic good shortages, the government has responded with increasingly authoritarian measures. Opposition leader Leopoldo Lopez has been in pre-trial detention since February and Maria Corina Machado has been recently charged with conspiring to assassinate President Maduro (along with the U.S. Ambassador to Colombia, Kevin Whitaker). Assuming the elections occur as planned, the opposition will have to overcome its own deep historic divisions to do well—a challenge for newly elected executive-secretary of the opposition coalition Democratic Unity (MUD) Jesús Torrealba. If they do, and the Partido Socialisto Unido de Venezuela (PSUV) loses its legislative majority, the stage will be set for the potential recall of Maduro in 2016.