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Follow the Money

Brad Setser tracks cross-border flows, with a bit of macroeconomics thrown in.

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Chinese State Investors Do Not Seem to Profit From Higher U.S. Interest Rates

by Brad W. Setser September 2, 2024

Given the size and composition of its external lending, China should be clearing far more interest income on its reserves and policy lending than SAFE reports. Read More

Ireland
Ireland Really Shouldn't be Driving the Details of the Euro Area's GDP Data
The euro area GDP data—thanks to Ireland—is increasingly telling us more about the tax strategies of large U.S. firms and less about the actual composition of activity in the euro area. Large investments in acquisition of their own intellectual property by U.S. firms transforming themselves into tax residents of Ireland ahead of the end of the double Irish are impacting the economic data of the entire currency union.
Blog Post by Brad W. Setser April 27, 2020 Follow the Money
Trade
When the Services Trade Data Tells You More About Tax Avoidance Than About Actual Trade…
In theory, there is a strong case for trade in services—specialization raises the productivity of all. Yet the actual data on U.S. trade in services tells a less appealing story. Far too much trade in high end services seems to be with low tax jurisdictions. I love the Irish, but there is something wrong when “Ireland“ is the United States’ leading export market for software services, business consulting services, and R&D services.
Blog Post by Brad W. Setser April 22, 2020 Follow the Money
China
Looking Back at China's 2019 Balance of Payments Data
Trump's trade war didn't really put a dent in China's balance of payments. And China looks like it has the kind of external balance sheet needed to weather the corona virus shock. China has a lot of domestic debt, but it remains a pretty big global creditor.
Blog Post by Brad W. Setser April 14, 2020 Follow the Money
  • China
    How Effective Have China’s Agricultural and Seafood Tariffs Been?
    There is a case that viruses (bird flu, swine fever, and now the coronavirus) have had almost as big an impact on Chinese-American agricultural trade as the trade war. (And more than most want to know on trade in crustaceans)
    Blog Post by Brad W. Setser April 7, 2020 Follow the Money
  • International Economic Policy
    Not One Emerging Market Financial Crisis, but Many…
    The common denominator across many emerging economies is a shortage of dollars. But the causes differ, as do the solutions.
    Blog Post by Brad W. Setser March 31, 2020 Follow the Money