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Follow the Money

Brad Setser tracks cross-border flows, with a bit of macroeconomics thrown in.

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Chinese State Investors Do Not Seem to Profit From Higher U.S. Interest Rates

by Brad W. Setser September 2, 2024

Given the size and composition of its external lending, China should be clearing far more interest income on its reserves and policy lending than SAFE reports. Read More

Turkey
The Changing Nature of Turkey’s Balance Sheet Risks
Pay attention to banking system's foreign currency exposure to the government ...
Blog Post by Brad W. Setser October 23, 2020 Follow the Money
Trade
China’s Surplus is Rising Rapidly. So is the U.S. Deficit. The IMF Cannot Turn a Blind Eye.
Do not use the IMF’s current account forecast in the Fall 2020 World Economic Outlook (WEO). It is already out of date.     
Blog Post by Brad W. Setser October 20, 2020 Follow the Money
Emerging Economies
Reframing the Collective Action Problem in Sovereign Bond Restructuring
A recent white paper from Lazard points out that emerging market sovereign bond holdings are often fairly concentrated among a handful of big players.  The main impediment to collective action may be less that bond holders are dispersed, and more that a handful of big holders all compete against each other and the benchmark.
Blog Post by Brad W. Setser October 7, 2020 Follow the Money
  • China
    Record Chinese Bilateral Surpluses With the United States Are Not Mirrored in the U.S. Trade Data
    Is China’s surplus with the United States back at a record level? It depends. In China’s data, China’s exports to the United States and its surplus with the United States are at all-time highs. The United States’ import data, however, shows fewer imports from China than China reports exports—which is interesting, because the norm has long been the other way around.
    Blog Post by Brad W. Setser October 5, 2020 Follow the Money
  • China
    Chasing Shadows in China’s Balance of Payments Data
    China’s second quarter balance of payments data points to a significant increase in the foreign asset accumulation of the state banking system. That at least raises the question of whether China’s authorities are resisting pressure on the yuan to appreciate.
    Blog Post by Brad W. Setser September 28, 2020 Follow the Money